August 2020 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)
and will likely increase more slowly. EIA expects supply to reach 99.4 million barrels per day in 2021, or 1.3 million barrels less than 2019 levels, and demand to reach 100.2 million barrels per day, or 1.1 million barrels less than 2019 levels.” “Consumption of U.S. liquid fuels was 20 percent lower in the second quarter of 2020 than it was during the same period in 2019. Source: www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo EIA expects consumption to rise through the end of 2021, though the estimated Liquid fuels average of 20 million barrels per day in 2021 “Daily Brent crude oil spot prices aver- would still be a 0.4 million barrels per day aged $43 per barrel in July. EIA expects less than in 2019.” Brent crude prices to average $43 per barrel “In the August STEO, EIA reduced its estiduring the second half of 2020 and rise to mates for U.S. crude oil production in 2020 an average of $50 per barrel in 2021.” by 370,000 barrels per day compared with “U.S. regular gasoline prices averaged the July STEO. We now expect U.S. crude $2.18 per gallon in July, about 56 cents production to average 11.3 million barrels lower than this time last year. EIA expects per day in 2020 and 11.1 million barrels per average annual prices to rise from $2.12 per day in 2021, down from 12.2 million barrels gallon in 2020 to $2.23 per gallon in 2021.” per day in 2019. May’s average U.S. crude oil “EIA expects global liquid fuels invento- production was 1.2 million barrels per day ries will decline at a rate of 4.2 million lower than we assessed in July, indicating barrels per day in the second half of 2020 more extensive production curtailments after rising at a rate of 6.4 million barrels per than previously estimated.” day in the first half of the year.” “EIA estimates demand for global liquid Natural Gas fuels to be down 8.1 million barrels per day “EIA expects sharp increases in U.S. in 2020 and supply down 6.4 million barrels natural gas prices this fall and winter, rising per day. Supply of liquid fuels fell by less from an average $2.11 per million British than demand in the second quarter of 2020 thermal units in September to $3.12 per
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million British thermal units in January. EIA forecasts that Henry Hub natural gas spot prices will average $2.03 per million British thermal units in 2020 and $3.14 per million British thermal units in 2021.” “EIA estimates natural gas consumption by the electric power sector for July was the highest monthly average on record. However, we still expect consumption to decline 3 percent from 2019 to 2020, primarily as a result of a forecast 4.4 percent decline in consumption in the industrial sector.” “After setting an annual record in 2019, natural gas production has fallen as low oil and natural gas prices caused producers to cut back on drilling. EIA estimates U.S. dry natural gas production to be down 3.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2020 and decline a further 4.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2021.” “U.S. liquefied natural gas exports averaged 3.1 billion cubic feet per day in July, down 2.4 billion cubic feet from the second quarter of 2020. Low international prices has led to numerous cargo cancellations, and EIA expects U.S. LNG exports to remain low in the coming months.”
Coal “After dropping to the lowest monthly total on record since at least 1973 in April, U.S. coal consumption will rise slightly in the third quarter but remain below 2019 levels through the end of 2020. EIA forecasts U.S. coal production to decrease 29 percent in 2020 from 2019 levels before recovering 12 percent in 2021.”
Electricity “EIA expects U.S. electricity consumption will be 3.6 percent lower in 2020, with the commercial sector accounting for the largest decline on a percentage basis. Consumption is expected to rise 0.8 percent in 2021.”
Emissions “EIA forecasts that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will decrease a record 11.5 percent in 2020 before increasing 5.6 percent in 2021. The decline in CO2 emissions this year is driven by less energy consumption related to country-wide restrictions on business and travel activity and the resulting slowing economic growth.”
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