Nathan Elbaum and Noah Shelton Sports Columnists
Analytics: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly George Foster of the Cincinnati Reds was awarded the first Game Winning Run Batted In (GWRBI) on opening day of the 1980 season. Little did he know that he helped start an explosion in the use of advanced statistics. GWRBI was given to the player who drove in the run that gave his team a lead they never relinquished. Most people thought it was a silly statistic, and was another example of how the RBI was disproportionately valued over the run; however, it was the pinnacle of sabermetrics of its time. GWRBI didn't last as the statistic was dropped after the 1988 season. Nevertheless in the 27 years since then, the use of sabermetrics has done nothing but grow. Another statistic formed around the time of the GWRBI is WHIP. WHIP stands for Walks plus Hits per Innings Pitched. It is used to measure pitcher’s propensity for allowing runners to reach base. Originally made by writer Daniel Okrent to rival ERA (Earned Run Average), WHIP has grown into the premier way to analyze a pitcher’s worth. WHIP hasn’t cracked the pitching triple crown, but the Baseball Writers Association of America puts heavy weight on it when voting on the Cy Young Award winner. Half of the winners in the past six years led their league, and only two were out of the top three in the league in WHIP(Tim Lincecum in 2009 who finished fourth in the National League and Corey Kluber last year who finished sixth in the American League). Even more advanced than WHIP, WAR is the height of sabermetrics in baseball at this time. It stands for Wins Above Replacement, and measures how many more wins a team has with a specific player than they would with a “QuadA”, or average replacement player. WAR uses a complex formula that varies with website; players can see changes of up to two wins between baseballreference.com and fangraphs.com, the two biggest statistics website. WAR takes into account everything from the amount of hits a player has, to how many times an outfielder held the runner from advancing. WAR is the most advanced statistic that exists for baseball at this time, but it still is not perfect. It lacks comparison between salaries and performance. Many of the best players in baseball are still under their rookie contracts, making the wins they produce cheaper than the free agent who signed for $25 million dollars a year. Mike Trout has lead the league in WAR the past three seasons, since being called up in 2012. In that time period he has made $2.4 million dollars, and had a combined WAR of 28. The Angles have paid about $80,000 for every “win” that he has earned them. For every win that an average player provides the average MLB team, they are paid $3.5 million dollars. The Angles paid Mike Trout 2% of his total value, if Trout were to hit the open market this year, teams should be willing to spend 25 million dollars on him for each year of service he provides according to his WAR. However, with the recent ludacris signings of players who obtain high WAR statistics, Trout could be looking at a record deal in the ballpark of $300 million. This is not a problem for the Angels who locked him up for another 6 years last March.
All of the analysis is cool for speculation, but in actuality, it is too much. It no longer matters whether a player is aesthetically pleasing during the game. The ‘dumb’ stats are also taking a downhill plunge. To be considered good nowadays, 40 home runs or 200 strikeouts will no longer do it. You need to be able to lead the league in WAR or WHIP. The same thing has happened with career the measures of greatness. 3000 hits no longer guarantees you a spot in the Hall of Fame like it used to. Neither does 500 home runs. These stats are great for those of you who like statistics, but to really enjoy the game, we should stop our total dependence of these stats and go back to the tried and true simple stats that have been used since the game began.