Issue 11 New Faces of ASEAN Part 2 Mar 2011 by Noviscape Consulting Group

NEW FACES OF ASEAN PART 2

TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER

LEADER

ISSUE 11 - NEW FACES OF ASEAN PART 2

Welcome to Issue 11 of TrendNovation - a monthly newsletter devoted to discussion of long-term social, technological and political trends in Southeast Asia. Issue 10 of TrendNovation contemplated diverse trends or movements which are already giving a new face to ASEAN. We continue this theme in the current issue. In the first article ‘ASEAN’s Relevance Amidst Changing Paradigms’, Suranand Vejjajiva challenges the concept of regional identity as a fundamental driver of an united ASEAN community. He points to the faster pace and unstoppable rise of ‘global citizenship’ and asks whether, at the beginning of the ‘Asia-Pacific Century’, ASEAN and its members can generate the unity of purpose and policy cohesion it will need if its poorest people are to reap any of the benefits of the AEC windfall?

By Wyn Ellis Chief Editor Email: asiaag@truemail.co.th

Continuing with this theme, ‘Unifying ASEAN & the Rise of the Sub Mekong Region - Revisiting Regional Foresight’, by Dr. Pun-Arj Chairatana asks how the ASEAN Summits will bring benefits to ordinary people through regional integration over the next decade. The article explores a future based on Thailand’s 2019 ASEAN scenario and shares the author’s views on a new geo-political alignment and the prospects for systemic change towards European Union-style governance for ASEAN. The article concludes with a prediction of the economic rise of the GMS as the ‘Emerald Triangle’, along with the return of Myanmar as a leading rice exporter by 2020. Jorge Carrillo Rodriguez, in his contribution ‘Southeast Asia: Contemporary Multi-National Nations’, offers a new perspective on labor mobility and diaspora in the region, and predicts that the rapid increase in net labor mobility, as well as a rise in mobility of more skilled and educated members of the workforce, will transform most nations in the region into melting pots of various nationalities. With labor migration set to swell over the coming decade, ASEAN’s hitherto tentative moves to establish mutual recognition and labor rights among its members are to be broadly welcomed; the logical progression-- mandatory regionwide social safety nets to protect the migrant underclass-- will represent a major test of ASEAN’s resolve to reduce poverty and inequity within all member states. TrendNovation this month interviews Dr. Karndee Leopairote, Assistant Professor of Industrial and Operations Management at Thammasat Business School, Thailand, Advisor to the Deputy Minister of Commerce, member of Thailand Competitiveness Committee, NESDB, and a team member of the Advisor to the Prime Minister on the national project and campaign on building the creative economy. And finally, in the Trend Tools section, Sadudee Vongkiattikachorn considers another forecasting technique: technology sequence analysis - a powerful forecasting tool for developing and validating technology paths. TrendNovation is available online at www.trendsoutheast.org. As always, your comments and feedback are invaluable to us.

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ASEAN’s Relevance Amidst Changing Paradigms By Suranand Vejjajiva The Commentator

IDEA: Since its inception in the late 1960s, ASEAN has been able to move at its own pace, and it is quite an accomplishment that the cooperation now spans into its fifth decade. Most important of all is the fact that member nations, except for a few skirmishes, have peacefully co-existed since the end of the Vietnam conflict in the 1970s. Whilst this long lasting peace has brought prosperity, the forthcoming formation of the single ASEAN Community promises a new era of economic cohesion. This is after all, the beginning of the ‘Asia-Pacific Century’, so why should ASEAN not position itself to reap the benefits for its population, especially the poorest and disadvantaged at the bottom of the pyramid (BoP)

Scenarios: I do believe the member countries, individually if not in cooperation with each other, will be able to gain from the growth of Asia-Pacific, particularly with the two major growth poles, China and India, pulling with such tremendous force. The extent to which each country will be best positioned for maximum benefit will of course depend upon the level of economic development and the stability of the internal political system. Actually, ASEAN membership will probably not be a

KEYWORDS: ASEAN community and identity; paradigm shifts; China and India; media factor in this process, at least until ASEAN can build a superstructure, not only in name, similar to the European Community (EC) and coordinating a common external policy in multilateral and bilateral negotiations. The latter has never happened and unlikely in the near future. However, time may not wait for ASEAN. There are at least two major paradigm shifts in play at the moment.

The fall of the American Century and the rise of the Asia-Pacific Century: First and most obvious is the rise of China and subsequently, India, as mentioned. Historically, both have deep and intertwined cultural, economic and political ties to all ASEAN countries in one way or another. But the rise of China/India in the new century is unprecedented in modern times and was not part of the equation when ASEAN was conceived under Cold War era assumptions and competing superpowers. The emerging economic and military strengths of China and India already cast tremendous influence over the region. An optimistic perspective holds that these countries could become the new engine of growth driving economic growth of the whole AsiaPacific region (along of course, with ASEAN as part of the convoy). A more pessimistic and perhaps realistic view would be that they could gobble up the region as an extension of their economic outsourcing – a new hegemony.

Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reﬂect the ofﬁcial positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation. Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2011. All Rights Reserved.

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There are many fundamental issues for ASEAN to ponder. For example, how to preserve regional and national identities and economic independence? How to channel the economic windfall from AEC to reduce inequity and alleviate poverty? Such issues offer strong incentives for ASEAN integration in order to strengthen the bloc’s negotiating position with the new regional superpowers and enhance domestic stability and quality of life. In reality, individual ASEAN members are all in competition to cater and be catered by the two emerging powers, thus undermining the chances for regional cooperation. Without agreement on a common external policy, ASEAN’s negotiating leverage and geopolitical relevance will rapidly shrink.

The communications technology shift the rise of instant interconnectivity: The second paradigm represents the threat from a totally different expanding empire: the empire of media connectivity as a whole; and social media in particular. Many of us grew up watching American movies and Japanese television series, so what’s wrong if kids today are crazy about Korean pop stars? The difference is not the origin of the content. What is not the same; is how the content is reaching the audience and the uncontrollable quantity and quality of the content being poured out of the screen, computer and television, tablets and mobile phones. For better or worse, the new generations are becoming global citizens faster than they realize they are citizens of ASEAN or even of their own nation. Take branding for example. Culturally and economically, global brands dominate with the help of media penetration. How many ASEAN brands are recognizable over department store shelves in the U.S., Europe, China, India, or even within ASEAN countries themselves? Do we have a coordinated process to build or encourage strong national brands to become ‘ASEAN brands’?

ISSUE 11 - NEW FACES OF ASEAN PART 2

China and India are competing at a breakneck pace, leap frogging even, to build global brands. ASEAN youths immersed in consumerism will spend more and more to get a hold of those goods. Winning the cultural war leads to economic benefits and eventually to economic dominance. On the political front, the growth of social media is profoundly affecting nation states and the administration of each government. The increasing freedom to exchange ideas electronically and the practical difficulties with censorship have established the internet as a powerful tool for democracy. ASEAN countries have nervously watched the Arab Spring, perhaps awaiting a coming spring of their own.

Implications: But challenges also bring new opportunities. As China and India grow, individual ASEAN countries, even Indonesia cannot go it alone. Of course, each country does not want to be sucked into a black hole. And although connectivity can go around the world in a click, the advantage of proximity should not be underestimated. For ASEAN to retain its relevance, these challenges must be studied and addressed collectively. Assumptions have changed and paradigms shifted. Business as usual will certainly not suffice for the coming decade. ASEAN leaders must take more time to communicate and prioritize regional cooperation. The mechanisms already in place could well foster trade and investment, but must be accelerated. Most importantly, the people of each nation must understand and be able to participate in discussions and contributions. ASEAN must come together to forge a true ASEAN identity, a branding of sorts. The initiative taken in building an ASEAN television station must be wellresourced in order to compete with media giants such as China’s CCTV, the Arab world’s Al Jazeera, and the US’s CNN, in order to provide a voice for

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ASEAN. The world is run by the media and ASEAN must have a share in it. An ASEAN public television network should therefore be considered as a priority. Other progressive outreach programs for the new generations must also be designed. ASEAN’s spirit must grow from the communities tying them together, not artificially created by bureaucracies alone. A social media strategy for ASEAN must be devised, including content of interest to the public. No one has the time to read through documents from ASEAN meetings, no matter how noble. Communications strategies will therefore be essential in forging relationships beyond those directly involved in the ASEAN process, i.e. the respective governments, private sector and the people.

Early indicators:

On China and India

■ The ‘Hamburger’ crisis and the rise of China ■ China surpassed Japan as the second largest economy in the world in 2011 ■ India and the rise of Bangalore and Mumbai in the mid 2010

On media

■ The coming of the internet era and in crease in the ‘population’ of social media sites

On new ASEAN generation

■ Carefree and consumerism ■ Born after the Vietnam War in mid 1970s and the Collapse of Communism in 1989: no memory of war and conflict

On ASEAN identity

■ The ASEAN Roadmap for 2015 agreed in 2009 ■ The recognition of dialogue partners of the ASEAN identity

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Drivers & Inhibitors: Drivers: - Emergence of the new generation which does not have the old inhibitors and attitudes of ani mosity - Increasing broadband penetration - Increasing consumer demand - Development of advanced mobile devices and wireless data networks - Continuing development of software agents - Cooperation between private sector operators - The rise of cities/mega-urban centers acceler ate cooperation beyond borders - Climate change and natural disasters - Democracy establishes a deeper roots in each country - Regional priority coincides with national priority

Inhibitors: - The different social structures within each so ciety and the cultural bias of the conservative elites which sees change threatening their social status - Digital divide between and within the ASEAN members - Income gap which reinforces the digital divide - An education by rote not suitable for information processing and sound analysis - Domestic natural disasters and man-made en vironmental collapse bogged down governments - Conflicts between ASEAN members over cen tury-old disputes such as the Thai-Cambodian border conflict - Unwillingness of the political leadership to ac cept change and sharing of power - National priority takes over regional priority ABOUT THE AUTHOR Suranand Vejjaiva was the Spokesman for the Thai Rak Thai Party and Member of Parliament during 2001-2005. He joined Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s Cabinet as Minister of the Prime Minister’s Office in 2005 until the coup d’état of September 19, 2006. At present, he is one of the 111 banned politicians, but has his own political commentary show, “The Commentator” on Voice TV and a variety talk show on TNN24 satellite channel. He also is a regular contributor to national newspapers such as the Bangkok Post and Siam Rath; and blogs on his website, Bangkok Voice, whenever he can.

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ISSUE 11 - NEW FACES OF ASEAN PART 2

Unifying ASEAN and the Rise of the Sub Mekong Region: Revisiting Regional Foresight By Dr. Pun-Arj Chairatana Managing Director@NCG

IDEA: In 2009, with a collective ambition to be an emerging world leader, ASEAN leaders at the ASEAN Summit in Thailand set a goal to achieve an EU-style ASEAN community by 2015. This signals that ASEAN’s annual meetings will be an important mechanism for Southeast Asia to realize such grand designs. A recent survey by Sripatum University in Thailand on perceptions of local people on the ASEAN Summits revealed that whilst more people were aware of the ASEAN Summits and their significance, a majority was less sure whether the Presidency role was that of a leader in the international arena, or simply as organizer of the meeting. In this article, we will discuss the future of ASEAN in the coming ten years through this particular mechanism, and ask how such a prestigious forum can benefit ordinary people?

Scenario: For Southeast Asia, the 2000s was a decade of geo-political challenges and socio-economic integration. For ASEAN, the New Millennium marked the beginning of a new chapter, in the embracement of Cambodia as its tenth and newest member (Laos and Myanmar were admitted into the club in 1997). The partnership is therefore very young and vibrant. This article reflects and updates a plausible image of ASEAN five years after ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) integration in 2015 by elaborating on the Thailand 2019’s ASEAN scenario as a point of departure.

An EU Style ASEAN:

KEYWORDS: ASEAN Summit; social contract; Laos; Myanmar; 2020

lenging issues for the ten members are the differences among their political systems and the wide economic disparities among members. These set ASEAN apart from the forerunner European Union (EU). According to the scenario there will be three major challenges that ASEAN Summit will face in acting as the key platform to build-up an EU-Style ASEAN by 2020. These are the management of its relationships with its international trade partners, new growth poles, new learning infrastructure and its people. - ASEAN & BRICS: Economic shifts outside the region, especially from the BRICS group of emerging markets (Brazil, Rus sia, India, China, and South Africa),have increased ASEANs’ importance and roles in the global economy as a South-South economic gateway. With the strength and potential for complementary economic co-operation,ASEAN in the next ten years will have closer socio-economic ties with these five key emer ging economies, in addition to its traditional key part ners/markets (Japan, USA,and the EU). An informal economic transaction and expansion of international grey market will be an emerging issue related to pan regional poverty mobilization. - Rises of ASEAN Economic Capital: The changing economic environment and market mechanisms have led to more momentum for interna tional trade agreements, together with leveraging on regional logistics and ICT grids, allowing most major Megacities in Southeast to have excellent connec tions. For example, the new Thailand urban plan 2057 projects city development will be based on local expertise and decentralization of growth poles out of Bangkok by introducing clusters of cities which would finally drive the whole system to have various primal cities around the Kingdom. This concept can be seen in Indonesia and Vietnam as well (Velegrinis, 2011).

In 2019, after five years of implementation of the AEC, the unification of ASEAN will be more evident. The most chalDisclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reﬂect the ofﬁcial positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation. Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2011. All Rights Reserved.

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- Emergence of aCommunity School and College: Expansion of international community schools and colleges will serve an increasing demand for know ledge workers on a global trade, and to educate the offspring of first generation migrant workers from the boom of labor mobilization in the 2000s. These edu cational institutes will produce a new class of non mass product, which could supply a new international and specific requirement from the region. Instead of moving toward liberalization or internationalization of education, the trend will move to a glocalization of the learning process to serve an increasing demand for professional workers and a new generation of de scendants of migrant workers, with moderate restric tion on teaching content.

Good Bye Golden Triangle, Hello Emerald Triangle! The Greater Mekong Subregion in 2020 will be a very dynamic region. Myanmar and Laos are among the poorest countries in the world, but will leverage themselves as new inland conduits and gateways between mainland Southeast Asia, India and China. The economics of poverty in this region will shape ASEAN, India and China into the next chapter of sustainable development challenges. - The Return of Myanmar: With assistance from ASEAN nations and China, by 2020, Myanmar’s economy, ten years after adopt ing a capitalist style of economic development along with minor democratization, will be back on track. Thanks to its abundant natural resources and geo graphical advantages as a mainland crossroads between China and India, and its sea gateway to the Arab States, South and Southeast Asia, the coun try will reemerge as a new and important rice bowl of the world, alongside Thailand and Vietnam. Both countries will have to either compete or cooperate with the old rice export champion to supply the world with this particular cash crop. Climate change, human security, and water resource conflicts among the countries around Mekong and Salaween Rivers will likely be sensitive issues at the ASEAN Summits, especially on carbon credit and resource allocation. - Rises of a Cultural Region: A clear example of this cultural-led economic integration is “the Emerald Triangle”, a geographic area between Phra Vihear province of Cambodia, Champasak province of Laos, and Ubon Ratcha thani in the Northeastern Thailand, established in 2001. The region shares four rich socio-economic strengths; cultural heritage, local wisdom, biodi versity, and tourism potential. The region shares cul tural roots, and (for Cambodia and Thailand) a century-old national border dispute.The key to such socioeconomic integration can be seen from the rise

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of Laos, cultural diplomacy and pro-poor economic development (reduction of urban and rural disparity). Laos has been the less talked-about ASEAN member country in the international arena, but is fast becoming ASEAN’s new bright star, both culturally and as an economic hub. It seems likely to leapfrog and grow even faster than any other regional economies in order to reclaim a lost decade of economic development. Border trade between Laos and its neighboring countries will become a new battle ground for attracting international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) under a quite fuzzy economic co operation, ranging from triangle to hexagon.

Implications: In 2001, Simon Tay’s scenario on the future of Southeast Asia reflected such logic. He foresaw that “…there was a troubled drama, with non-democratic but booming economies, there may yet rise countries that are democratic, economically dynamic, socially coherent, and on the path of sustainable development.” In this regard, economic liberalization, development and human security, and democracy have proved to be the key ingredients for ASEAN integration. -

The AEC represents an attempt to facilitate economic liberalization together with agreements on free trade with major counterparts, particularly China. Social and human development have been prioritized in most of the member states since the beginning of the new millennium, while regional-scale democratization will remain as the most sensitive and difficult challenge for the next decade. To ensure the sustained health of the ASEAN Community, the ASEAN Summits should now place more emphasis on democratization of education and human rights, especially for the poor in the Greater Mekong Subregion, and stateless people along the Thai borders with its neighbors.

The progression of European-style unification will force ASEAN to leverage its quality of policy advocacy, human rights, human security, and mutual learning among the supra-national and its people. ASEAN Summit should emphasize a process of mutual consent among groups of beneficiaries, both locals and the diaspora, and lead to a new social contract for Southeast Asia.

As the region will continue as a major food supplier to the world, within the next ten years, the ASEAN Summits will face emerging issues for long-term regional food security, disputes over natural resource exploitation among its members, and increasing economic and social disparity/inequality and inequity among rich and poor, accelerated by regional democratization, the Summits should not be monopolized by the intergovernmental agents and large enter

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prises to usurp resources and benefits, but to move forward to include a voice of a community for the real benefit of the public.

Early Indicators: -

In 2002, China and ASEAN agreed to a ChinaASEAN free-trade area to be implemented in stages up to 2015. On 2010, January 1st, a free-trade agreement between China and the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asia Nations ASEAN) came into effect.

Five crucial agreements were announced at the 2007 ASEAN Summit in the Philippines, pertaining to the platform towards continuing integration of ASEAN and enhancing political, economic and social cooperation in the region. These were the Cebu Declaration towards a Caring and Sharing Community, the Cebu Declaration on the Blueprint for the ASEAN Charter, the Cebu Declaration on the Acceleration of the Establishment of an ASEAN Community by 2015, the ASEAN Declaration on the Protection and Promotion of the Rights of Migrant Workers, and the ASEAN Convention on Counter-Terrorism. An agreement to liberalize the trade in services between China and ASEAN was also signed during the Cebu Summit.

In late 2007, the key theme of the discussions among ASEAN leaders in Singapore was set to be on “Energy, Environment, Climate Change and Sustainable Development”. In line with this theme, the ASEAN Leaders’ Declaration on Environmental Sustainability was signed at the 13th ASEAN Summit and a proposal made to work on a Singapore Declaration on the Environment in order to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations in the long run at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

Drivers & Inhibitors: Drivers: - - - -

International pressure on ASEAN member nations to promote democracy and human rights ASEAN members move towards a more EU-style community Climate change, particularly from natural disaster, reemerging and emerging diseases, accelerate efforts to protect key socio-economic areas around the coast of Southeast Asian nations The global financial crisis

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Inhibitors: - - -

The ongoing role of the military in Myanmar and Thailand has defied international calls to restore democracy, as a barrier for an international trade and regional integration Climate change, natural disasters, re-emerging and emerging diseases, delays agricultural development in Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam A varied and inconsistent record of respect for human rights across the region

References Abramowitz, M. and Parke, N. (2009, May 1). ASEAN’s continuing dilemma, The Jakarta Post (Jakarta, Indonesia). Retrieved from http:// www.thejakartapost.com/news/2009/05/01/asean039s-continuingdilemma.html ASEAN Secretariat (2009). Roadmap for an ASEAN Community 2009 – 2015, Jakarta, Indonesia. Retrived from http://www.depthai. go.th/DEP/DOC/53/53004040.pdf BBC (2009, October 24). Asian leaders eye EU-style bloc. Retrieved from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8323742.stm Knowledge Network Institute of Thailand, APEC Center for Technology Foresight, and National Science, Technology, and Innovation Policy Office (2010), Thailand Scenarios 2019, (In Thai). Sripatum University (2009, October 4). Public opinion on the ASEAN Summit, Sripatum Poll, (In Thai). Retrieved from http://info.spu.ac.th/ content/14/12364.php Tay, S. (2001, Winter). The Future of ASEAN: An Assessment of Democracy, Economies and Institutions in Southeast Asia. In Harvard Asia Pacific Review, 48 – 50. Retrieved from http://web.mit.edu/lipoff/ www/hapr/winter01_development/asean.pdf Velegrinis, S. (2011). Flux-scape : Emerging Challenges of Asian (Landscape) Urbanism, Landscape Practice Global Leader, Dubai, UAE. Retrieved from http://tar.thailis.or.th/bitstream/123456789/443/1/ OR031.pdf www.aseansec.org

About The AUTHOR: About the Author:

Dr. Pun-Arj Chairatana is the Managing Director of NOVISCAPE CONSULTING GROUP and the Principal Investigator of TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER. He has involved with various regional scenario buildings and future exercises since 2000. As a policymaker, he was Director of Policy Entrepreneur and Foreign Affairs Department at Public Policy Development Office (PPDO), the Office of Cabinet Secretariat. He obtained his PhD in Economics of Technological and Industrial Changes (ETIC) from Aalborg University, Denmark. His expertise is in the areas of strategic foresight, technology and innovation management, public policy, trend analysis and political economy.

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Southeast Asia:

Contemporary Multi-National Nations By Jorge Carrillo Rodriguez Advisor @NCG

IDEA: It cannot be denied that temporary, long-term and permanent international migrations of people have become structural components of the development path of most countries in the world. However, migration and the role that migrants play in development are complex and politically sensitive issues. It is very difficult to generalize the specific pattern of migration in all countries; rather it requires at least subregional scenarios to exemplify the different conditions and factors that a diaspora may take. However, whatever the form, migration is one of the markers of globalization and it can be a decisive factor in the success of the societies willing to tap into the potential of international migration. The rise of China as a key economic player in the region will be followed by a new cycle of Chinese migrants influx, while increasing regional integration and globalization will expand the boundaries of job markets and produced changes in the institutions and regulations dealing with migration and that will transform most nations in the region into melting pots of various nationalities.

Scenario: Southeast Asia is characterized by an uneven economic dynamism. There are push and pull factors that affect people’s movement through the region. Contrary to common beliefs, migration is caused not only by lack of development in the countries of origin. Some of the determinants of migration also include wide gaps in wages and productivity of labor, ageing and the uneven distribution in the region of young workers, state policies on immigration, and dramatic im-

KEYWORDS: Migration, rules and regulations; diasporas; Mainland Chinese

provements in connectivity. There will be an increasing differentiation between different types of migrants, i.e. businessmen, highly-skilled and knowledge workers, students, mid-level entrepreneurs, low-skilled and unskilled workers, etc. Given the variety of factors affecting international migration and the increasing integration of the region, every country in the region will be at the same time a country of origin and of destination but the type of migrant will be different and the balance between emigrants and immigrants will differ.

Maid vs. Manager: Juggling between Housework and Business Hub As societies move beyond industrial production as the basis for economic growth towards service sector expansion and knowledge-based activities, their labor requirements shifts from low-skill laborers (often provided through internal ruralurban migration) towards high-skilled knowledge workers. This requires professional skilled labors that many countries cannot internally supply, and accelerate such mega-scale migration. However, the need for unskilled labor will remain as will the influx of large numbers of illegal immigrants. Indonesia will provide household services workers to Malaysia and Singapore but Philippines will continue to play a major role providing household services workers, caregivers and nurses throughout the region. However, nurses will have less of a presence in countries such as Thailand where the government requires that they speak Thai. At the same time, Philippines (as well as Malaysia) will also play an increasing role in the deployment of highly-skilled workers given that enrolment ratios in the country are quite high and, as in the past, their education system is quite flexible and has adapted to the changing regional and international demands.

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Similarly Vietnamese skilled/knowledge workers will likely become more prominent in other countries of the region as economic growth spurs knowledge generation and expansion of service sector. On the other hand, Thailand, in spite of the large population base, may have problems meeting even their own internal needs for a knowledge/high-skilled labor force. This, together with its ageing population, will increase its demand for foreign workers. Bangkok (and to a lesser extent the touristic areas) already attracts professionals from Singapore, Philippines and Indonesia, as well as a large influx of unskilled laborers (mainly construction). This will only increase in the future although it may be hindered by the lack of protection of migrant workers and a fairly protectionist approach to the migration regulatory system. Singapore has already taken steps to try to compensate for its ageing population with programs to attract businessmen and skilled labor as well as generous scholarships programs for students from mainland China. Due to the dynamism of the region, other countries may still have some problems in adapting their systems fast enough not only to international needs but even to their own internal requirements. They will probably continue providing lowskilled laborers to neighboring countries (such as Cambodia to Thailand) but their future development may well depend on their ability to attract (and facilitate) the migration of skilled workers from other countries.

Chinese Diaspora 3.0 A new wave of Chinese migration emerged in the late 1970s with the lifting of the emigration ban. This, together (at least originally) with the use of links with existing Chinese overseas communities, led to a drastic increase in the number of Chinese youth migrating to other countries. However, there are some significant differences with previous migrations. As mentioned above, migration is not only a reflection of lack of development. In fact, in many case, development in the country of origin is accompanied by an increased migration so this wave has some new type of migrants, i.e. highly mobile business migrants (including investment migrants and commercial representatives), students and visiting academics (mainly to Singapore), contract workers who have to return to China but often overstay, and unskilled labor migrants and farmers (many illegal). Of these, the first two often lead to permanent migration. Another difference is that many of the new migrants target economically developed areas or countries since improved conditions in their place of origin has led them to higher aspirations for themselves and their children. It is clear that the socio-cultural makeup of the new migrants is very different from that of the Chinese that went overseas during the colonial period (Chinese Diaspora 1.0) or from the post Republic of China migration (Chinese Diaspora 2.0),

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particularly in terms of how they view themselves and how they view their relation with China. While 1.0 and 2.0 are very conservative and try to preserve Han culture, the Chinese Diaspora 3.0 is more flexible, fast learner and cultural footloose, have a strong identity but are flexible and blend in local context. At the other end, from the perspective of China, migrant populations are considered part of the nation and overseas Chinese are now seen as key players in knowledge transfer to the country. This will affect particularly business migrants and knowledge workers who will take advantage of increased connectivity to maintain links with their motherland and become “regional citizens”.

Rules and Regulation As more countries realize that, in a global world, it is not possible to separate development from migration, the management of the process will take center stage in development policies. Section A.5 of the ASEAN Economic Community Blueprint already calls for the free flow of skilled labor by facilitating the issuance of visas and employment passes for ASEAN professional and skilled labor. The Association has already agreed on the mutual recognition of a number of professions including several related to medical services, engineering and architecture. The language barrier will present serious problem for certain countries but will have relatively little impact on countries that already relied on foreign skilled workers such as Singapore and Malaysia. However, it will add pressure to countries with less open migration policies such as Thailand. Furthermore, receiving countries will be forced to review their legislations regulating foreign workers. Bilateral and/ or regional agreements will need to be formulated whereby minimum standards of protection are guaranteed with responsibilities shared by countries of origin and of destination. These will include health coverage, education of children of migrants and protection of human rights. This will have a double effect. On one hand it will help reduce the exploitation of workers, particularly household service workers and unskilled laborers. On the other hand, it will make countries more attractive to mobile migrants (such as knowledge workers) for whom “quality of place” is a key factor in deciding where to migrate.

Implications: -

Expansion of the professional job markets beyond national borders to cover the region as a whole. Par ticularly at the high end of the scale, people will need to compete with nationals from other countries.

- Increased pressure on governments to provide universal social protection as a means to reduce poverty and protect vulnerable groups.

- Education reform to bring educational systems in line

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with development needs and to increase regional competitiveness

Early Indicators: - Relatively small impact of the economic crisis on migration with an increase in demand for Indonesian housemaid in Malaysia in the mid-2011 - - -

High levels of migrant stock already well-established in the region. According to the figure by the Philip pines Embassy in Singapore, there are around 162,000 Filipinos residing in the islands in 2011. About 70,000 are maids, while there are more than 80,000 are working professionals and their family members. As of 2010, there was already a stock of 1.4 million Indonesians living in Malaysia and 1 million Malaysians living in Singapore. Existing key migration corridors within Southeast Asia that lead to migrant-receiving countries such as Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Singapore and Thai land. Another migration route extends from China to Southeast Asia with an estimated stock of 1 million Proliferation of “regional” economic and commercial endeavors.

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References Abella, Manolo (2008), Challenges to Governance of Labour Migration in Asia Pacific, Revised Paper after PECC-ABAC Conference on “Demographic Change and International Labor Mobility in the Asia Pacific Region: Implications for Business and Cooperation” Seoul, Korea on March 25-26, 2008. Chin, James K. (2009), Chinese Transnational Migration in the Region: An Update, Brief Report Prepared for the NTS-Asia Annual Convention 2009, Marina Mandarin Singapore, 3-4 November 2009. Ebola, A. (2011, March 2). Filipino professionals now outnumbered maids in Singapore. The Straits Times. Retrieved from http://tageventconcepts.com/pinoys-and-the-philippines/ filipino-professionals-in-singapore/filipino-professionals-nowoutnumber-maids-in-singapore The Straits Times. (2011, May 15). Indonesian maid influx expected in Malaysia. Retrieved from http://www.straitstimes. com/BreakingNews/SEAsia/Story/STIStory_668921.html Skeldon, Ronald (2008), Migration and Development, Paper presented at the Expert Group Meeting on Migration and Development in Asia and the Pacific, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok, 2008. United Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (2011) Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2011. Bangkok, 2011, Sales No. E.11.II.F.2.

Drivers:

Drivers & Inhibitors: - Ageing population (and workforce) particularly in Singapore and Thailand. - -

Demand for skilled/knowledge workers generated by the transition from production-based economy into a more service-oriented and knowledge-based eco nomy in Southeast Asia. Improvements in connectivity and increase mobility of populations

- Growth of immigrant networks that facilitate search for employment and adaptation to live in a different country

About The AUTHOR: About the Author:

Jorge Carrillo Rodriguez is a social anthropologist with more than 30 years-experience working on social development and poverty reduction. A graduate of the London School of Economics, he conducted research in his home country of Venezuela before joining the United Nations in 1984. He worked in the Middle East and Asia and recently retired from the UN. Based in Bangkok, his work during the last 18 years has focused on the regional, national and sub-national development of Southeast Asia. He is now an advisor to Noviscape Consulting Group for an international development issue.

- Increasing integration of the ASEAN Economic Com munity (AEC)

Inhibitors:

- Restrictive migration regulatory system

- Xenophobia as backlash of economic crises or as a perception of pandemic caused by specific ground of migrants. - Nationalistic ideologies dominating the political land scape

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Interview with Dr. Karndee Leopairote By Dr. Pun-Arj Chairatana

ISSUE 11 - NEW FACES OF ASEAN PART 2

“In sociological terms, we have to think not only about skilled or unskilled migrant labor; mobility among managers and executives will also be more commonplace as a means of career advancement. The new generation will be built around some notion of a ‘global culture’.”

Q: How will the roles of incumbent and new-coming diaspora shape labor and economic distribution in Southeast Asia? A: “New and existing diasporal groupings will continue to co-exist in parallel with each other. Whilst the old groups tend to remain bound to their traditional communities and spheres of activity, the new generations are not bound by such ties, and will move freely around. Multi-culturalism will gradually erode the significance of national identity and eclipse national cultures and value systems. Tastes and styles will intersect and further blur the lines, resulting in the emergence of a new global culture- a true melting pot.” “But if you ask who will take responsibility for developing workforce skills, I predict that in the next few years, as skilled labor mobility gathers pace, individual governments will neglect these people and will not prioritize upgrading of their own respective domestic skill bases. The gap between skilled and unskilled labor will remain and may indeed broaden as a result.”

COPY RIGHT:2011 PACEyes

Q: As an icon of Thailand’s new generation of academics and executives, what is your perspective on the next decade of human mobilization in the region? A: “Mobility of people around the region will for sure become more significant than we have seen in the past. Today’s generation has a different perspective – their horizons are broader and they look for jobs anywhere. Moving around has never been easier, and of course this trend is already happening around us today, for all categories of employment. So we can expect to see much greater cultural mixing in the coming decade, just as we see, for example in the EU. “The hotspots for a mobile workforce will be in urban areas due to the many job opportunities they provide. However, I expect that countries will impose regulatory barriers to try to limit the influx of labor.”

“Most governments in the region have focused on job creation. But creating jobs by numbers does not guarantee sustainability and quality of life in the long run. Rather, job creation policies should focus on job enhancement to allow workers to upgrade their capabilities and move up the skill pyramid.”

Q: The region’s Chinese and Indian diaspora share a wide range of expertise and have blended in with the indigenous people for centuries. Do you see a new grand migration that could create a new generation of diaspora in Southeast Asia? A: “This could happen in any country with a widening equity gap, or where there are social schisms due to factors such as race, political views, religion, economic situation, or human rights.”

NEW FACES OF ASEAN PART 2 - ISSUE 11

“Take Malaysia as an example. The government does not treat its people equally, and explicit rights and privileges for a certain group of citizens are even enshrined in law. This is a recipe for social unrest, which may result in uprisings, or exodus of disaffected, disenfranchised citizens. Other example may include Filipinos and Thais, where domestic economic crises or political unrest could be significant factors. Given new opportunities for a fresh start elsewhere, the attraction may be irresistible for many, so another wave of new generation of diaspora is entirely possible”.

Q: How will the forthcoming ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) affect resource mobility in the coming decade? A: “Although there is wide awareness of AEC and its implications, we have to admit that not all ASEAN member states will be ready for it by 2015. Therefore, we will not see a sudden ‘mega-wave’ of human mobilization in 2015. It may take at least ten years before a new generation emerges, who have grown up with the concept of global citizenship. This group will usher in a new era of human resource mobilization. Whilst the new era will not destroy national cultures and identities, at least superficially they may certainly be masked and play a less overt role.”

Q: You are one of the architects of Thailand’s ‘Creative Economy’ policy. In what ways do you see the new and old diasporas contributing to the transformation of the broader region into a creative economy? A: “The core concept of the creative economy is to build economic value from ideas. Many ideas are grounded in or influenced by local culture and opportunity, and their success is often driven by new technologies. The growing influence and economic power of both ‘new’ and ‘old’ diasporas will surely lead to new culture clashes, but this new cultural milieu will provide fertile ground for creativity. I definitely see exciting times ahead for the growth of the region’s creative industries, which will help micro-enterprises and SMEs, and together make an increasingly prominent contribution to national economies”.

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Q: What will be the future of the role of ASEAN leadership toward diaspora mobilization region? A: “I’m reminded of the phrase, ’Asia is not ASEAN’, which means not all ASEAN countries are alike. Take Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam for example. The business environment, work culture, and workforce capability all differ widely among these countries. As I see it, the level of formal education and training around Asia is in general inadequate to generate a strong cadre of regional leaders with the combination of key attributes: professional knowledge, leadership skills, creativity and innovation, and social consciousness. ASEAN must prepare its future leaders to operate effectively within a multi-cultural environment, be able to initiate and champion new ideas, leverage the strengths and commonalities of each member, and most importantly, manage conflict. Needless to say, these will without doubt be among the major challenges for ASEAN’s leadership in the coming era.”

About Dr. Karndee Leopairote: Asst. Prof. Dr. Karndee holds a B.Eng. degree in Industrial Engineering from Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology (SIIT), Thammasat University, and MS and PhD degrees in Industrial Engineering from the University of Wisconsin – Madison, USA. She currently teaches Industrial and Operations Management at Thammasat Business School (TBS). Her areas of research interest include the creative economy, competitiveness in the service sector, service operations and innovation, process analysis for competitiveness, and system simulation modeling. Since 2006 Dr. Karndee has served as Director of Thammasat Business Consulting Center (TBCC). She has consulted and conducted research for a number of manufacturing and service companies and has been actively involved with numerous large scale governmental projects. She is an invited speaker for numerous business and professional programs and has lectured widely at colleges and universities in Thailand. She also serves as advisor to the Deputy Minister of Commerce, and is a member of the Thailand Competitiveness Committee, NESDB, and a founding committee of the Asian Knowledge Institute (AKI). Most recently she was appointed as a member of the Prime Minister’s advisory team on the national creative economy project. Aside from academic activities, during 2007 – 2008, Dr. Karndee also served as a news anchor and industrial economics news analyst on a national broadcasting network, Modern 9 TV. Since 2007, she has been a regular contributor to various leading magazines such as PREAW Magazine, Business.Com, and Ban Tuk Khun Mae and a host for FM96.5, CEO Vision.

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Technology Sequence Analysis By Sadudee Vongkiattikachorn Senior Consultant @NCG

Technology Sequence Analysis (TSA) is a method that involves the statistical combination of estimates of the time required to accomplish technological steps. In general, TSA views the future as a series of interlocking, causal steps or decisions, or nodes, leading to some future state. The time between nodes is presented with probabilities. With these estimates, the time of availability of the end-target system can be computed in terms of its probability versus time. TSA brings in some other approaches to blend with its own unique features. First, the method is similar in some ways to the Project Evaluation Review Technique (PERT), which is a method to organize in the most efficient sequence a variety of tasks to accomplish a goal. Although partly resembling with PERT networks, TSA itself has two distinguishing characteristics: 1) its ability to handle alternative technologies, using Boolean techniques; and 2) its use of probabilistic estimates of elapsed time between technology nodes. TSA also employs some concepts derived from relevance tree analysis, but it actually goes beyond conventional relevance tree analysis to provide a quantitative estimate of timing. Furthermore, TSA analysis also uses the “Monte Carlo” method to estimate the likely time to achieve the final system. Implementing a random sampling, Monte Carlo simulation uses randomly chosen values of independent variables that appear in the equa-

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tions defining the system’s behavior. Such equations in which these variables appear are run to calculate an outcome. The process is repeated many times, probably in thousands, each with a new random selection of independent variables and each producing a different result. Over the series of runs, the process generates a range of results of the dependent variables. In TSA, the dependent variable is a date at which the intermediate technologies or final system will be available. The Monte Carlo method helps provide the probabilistic estimate of these dates.

Approach & Methodology The main things that need to be developed in TSA include collecting data and constructing the network. However, both are difficult and time consuming so that they must carefully be carried out. Details of each item can be elaborated below: -

Collecting data: the best way to collect data for a TSA is probably face-to-face interviews with experts. Therefore, a width of the range of expertise will have to be identified so that ex perts will be requested to participate in the same fashion as a Delphi survey.Prior in-depth study is also mandatory before starting field interviews. After initial data are ready, a rudi mentary form of the network should be sketched so that experts in industry and aca demia will have the future system described to them.

Constructing the network: as interviews begin, the interviewees are requested to con centrate on the requirements for achieving the technologies that involve their expertise. Inter viewees are also asked whether the inputs are “and” or “or” paths as well as about the uses made of their nodes downstream in the net work.Moreover, recommendations could also be made about other people who might con tribute to the study as interviewees and provide further quantitative data to support the judgments already obtained.Addressing the embryonic network, they will be asked to

NEW FACES OF ASEAN PART 2 - ISSUE 11

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help complete the technology paths already described or depicted, to critique the given technology paths if they seem inappropriate, and to add new technology approaches not included in the network.They will also be asked to assess development time and cost implica tions of the technology paths. Once inter views are final, the information derived from all experts is synthesized into one comprehen sive TSA chart.Overall, information must ag gregate as the interviews proceed and finally complete, leading to a largely completed net work with anticipated sequence of events and judgments about timing versus probability in hand.The path through the network leads to an estimate of the time of availability of the end system.

to produce a system employing them in the shortest time or at the least cost. The method is complex, but ideal as problems involve forecasting the likely time of operation of a technology-based future system. It is true that the method requires a great deal of dedication, attention to detail, time and money. The networks are often complex, requiring analyzing software and training. However, the method provides one of the few ways to assess the sensitivity of goal attainment to variations in the timing or financial support of intermediate steps. It also provides a basis for accumulating data about the timing of events or technologies that are common to several applications.

Computing outcomes: after all prior tedious works are done, the software associated with TSA would then be helpful coming to the last stage. The current TSA software program includes multiple search and calculation routines that can be performed on the completed networks. The main analysis routine employs a Monte Carlo approach, but a more effective use of the calculation routine is for sensitiv ity tests.The latter is the calculation routine that searches for key technologies that will pace the development process or, in a com petitive situation, provide some advantages. The running process could be repeated several hundred times.The estimate of time of avail ability of each technology and of the end system itself is recorded.By analyzing the set of estimates, the probability versus time for the end system and each of the intermediate steps can be computed.

• • •

Application: TSA has been widely used in planning.The approach also has been used to explore technology policy questions. One example is to assess the selected competing technologies that could be developed

In addition, TSA is useful in identifying the specific pacing technologies to emphasize if the projected date of system operation will be realized. The analysis method can also be used to: Estimate the costs of various technological paths leading to a final system; Identify the specific technologies that should be embedded within an R&D program to reduce the risks in attaining a particular system in the least time or at the lowest costs; and Establish the uncertainty in achieving a desired schedule.

References Gordon, T. J. (1994) Technology Sequence Analysis, AC/UNU Millennium Project.

About The AUTHOR: About the Author:

Sadudee Vongkiattikachorn is a development economist with high level experience in policy research in a number of sectors. Mr. Sadudee holds a Master of Public Affairs (M.P.A.) degree from the School of Public and Environmental Affairs (SPEA), Indiana University, and a Bachelor of Economics (B.E.) degree from Thammasat University, Bangkok, majoring in monetary and international economics. In his most recent position as Senior Researcher at the Division of Policy Research and Development, Public Policy Development Office (PPDO), attached to the Prime Minister’s Office, Thailand, he authored a number of major policy research papers relating to economic, political and social development, poverty alleviation, and strengthening of Thailand’s research capabilities. He currently works with Noviscape Consulting Group as a senior consultant.

Mr. Suranand Vejjajiva Dr.Pun-Arj Chairatana Mr.Jorge Carrillo Rodriguez Dr.Karndee Leopairote Mr.Sadudee Vongkiattikachorn