Issue 7 Grey Cities July 2010 by Noviscape Consulting Group

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7th

ISSUE

rved PACEYES

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GREY CITIES From Ageing Society to Mature Society Innovation and the Megacity – Reflections from a Grey City

Coming of the Grey Collar Age Interview with Assoc. Prof. Dr. Trirat Jarutach Scenario Building

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LEADER

By Wyn Ellis Chief Editor

ISSUE 7 - GREY CITIES

Welcome to Issue 7 of TrendNovation- a monthly magazine devoted to discussion of long-term technological, social and political trends in Southeast Asia. Issue 6 of TrendNovation focused on the deep-rooted influences of religion and superstitions on all aspects of Southeast Asian societies. “Grey cities” - the theme of this issue – examines the wider implications of ageing populations form a major demographic in Southeast Asia. The ageing of Southeast Asia’s populations raises a host of fundamental challenges and dilemmas, and we have attempted in this issue to touch on just a few aspects, such as changing lifestyles of the elderly, how they respond to technological change, and employment in a grey society. This issue starts with a commentary by Dr. Wiput Phoolcharoen, one of Thailand’s foremost experts in health systems, on the prospects for future of Southeast Asia’s Grey Society. In his article “From Ageing Society to Mature Society” Dr. Wiput shares the results of a foresight exercise held in Thailand to identify emerging issues in social management, employment, governance, and health service delivery, and the prospects for the country’s evolution towards what he labels a ‘mature society’. The second article “Innovation and the Megacity – Reflections from a Grey City” was contributed by Dr. Suchat Udomsopagit, a policy researcher at the APEC Center for Technology Foresight (APEC CTF), National Science, Technology and Innovation Policy Office (STI). This article offers a snapshot of plausible future Bangkok scenarios in 2030, as driven by three megatrends: ageing society, low- carbon society and virtual society (which we may paraphrase as the 3G’s - ‘Grey’, ‘Green’ and ‘Google’). The article also discusses the implications for development, particularly in respect to alleviation of urban poverty. Dr. Apiwat Ratanawaraha coins a new term in his article: “Coming of the Grey Collar Age” - an exploration of the political and social challenges in adjusting to accommodate an older workforce that is healthy, active, articulate and influential. The dilemma is real and imminent: very soon, “grey collar workers” will become the fastest growing segment of the workforce in countries such as Singapore and Thailand. Public policies and businesses alike will need radical reform. TrendNovation this month interviews Assoc. Prof. Dr. Trirat Jarutach, of the Faculty of Architecture, Chulalongkorn University. Dr. Trirat comments on lifestyles in a grey society, and urges ASEAN governments to act now to address the fundamental issues that will accompany the imminent emergence of grey societies around the region. Finally, the Trend Tool section discusses the basics of scenario building, as an important and widely used foresight tool. It is good that we are reminded of its purpose, its various modes, utility, and of course its strengths and weaknesses. TrendNovation is available online at http://www.trendsoutheast.org. As always, your comments and feedback are invaluable to us.

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From Ageing Society to Mature Society By Dr. Wiput Phoolcharoen MD., MPH, Member of the Board of Preventive Medicine, Thai Medical Council

IDEA: In 2007, Thailand conducted a foresight exercise to investigate and identify emerging issues in an ageing society. The result came as a surprise to stakeholders participating in the exercise. Thailand in the future may evolve into a ‘mature society’, i.e. a society that offers learning opportunities for all age groups and social strata, recognizing the benefits to society of realizing the full potential of all individuals – in short, a society for all age groups. But how might such a major social transformation be nurtured?

Scenarios: Despite the heterogeneity of many Southeast Asia’s demographic trends, rapidly declining fertility and longer life expectancy are seen in every country across

KEYWORDS: Scenarios; ageing society; mature society; 65; emerging issues; Thailand.

the region. As a result, the proportion of people aged over 65 years is growing faster than any other age group. Inevitably, Southeast Asia will face a rapid and unprecedented pace of population ageing over the coming 40 years (Table 1). Though population ageing emerged only relatively recently in Southeast Asian countries, the trajectory appears to be much more rapid than has been the case in Europe, North America or Japan, but less dramatic than that seen in the East Asia (see Figure 1). During the past 60 years, national governments throughout the world have come to play an increasingly important role in providing security for the elderly, with many Southeast Asia countries now offering some types of support program. Public pension programs offer two important advantages. First, they represent a politically acceptable means of providing a social safety net for those elderly groups who might otherwise face hardship or poverty. Second, national programs allow risk pooling. Individuals who must

Table 1: Projected growth of Asia’s elderly population Source: United Nations (2001)

Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reﬂect the ofﬁcial positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation. Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2011. All Rights Reserved.

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population ageing presents challenges in ﬁnancing and delivering healthcare.

Emergence of a Mature Society

Figure 1: Expected trend in aging in the major regions of Asia in 2000-2050 Source: United Nations (2001)

provide for their own retirement needs may make poor investments. They may suffer a disability that curtails their income-earning capacity or experience unusual longevity and outlive their savings. Public programs spread these risks and provide a monthly beneﬁt that lasts as long as the beneﬁciary survives. In some respects Southeast Asia is fortunate because ageing is not as advanced and because their public-support programs are not as ambitious as in the western world. They also have the advantage of studying the successes and failures of policies and programs implemented elsewhere. But today, the region is at a critical juncture, so such lessons must be well-learned, and transformed into effective policies, strategies and implementation measures at national level. In countries such as Indonesia and Thailand, the need to establish or extend programs for the elderly has reached a critical stage, and policymakers in both countries need to urgently address the policy challenges inherent in mainstreaming population ageing issues within national development policies and programs. For policymakers, the increasing burden of population ageing on national healthcare systems is a cause for considerable consternation. Among the world’s economically advanced countries, healthcare spending per capita is about four times higher for people age 65 and older than for the rest of the population. Irrespective of the level of economic development,

The focus of healthcare systems in Southeast Asia is currently on maternal and child health and reproductive-health services, which are considered as basic healthcare. In these countries, a major challenge will be to meet the needs of expanding elderly populations without sacrificing essential services for everyone else. A variety of approaches to healthcare financing universally and for ageing has been adopted, but all face a similar fundamental challenge to that faced by pension schemes in the developed Western economies. Both must strike a difficult balance between meeting the needs of the elderly from a diminishing base of economically active taxpayers to support large, expensive public programs. As a result of these continuing trends, the old-age dependency ratio and per capita GNP will continue to increase. Many Southeast Asian countries may simply not be able to afford to provide adequate support for a large dependent elderly population. In particular, they might not have the necessary institutions and financial systems in place, including efficient and well-managed pension and healthcare programs, capital markets, and accounting and regulatory systems. For Thailand, the mature society scenario includes five areas that will require reform in order to effectively manage uncertainties caused by demographic trends. These are health service management, learning and education, employment, social management, and health financing. For example, in Thailand we

About the Author: Dr. Wiput Phoolcharoen MD., MPH Dr. Wiput Phoolcharoen is one of Thailand’s foremost experts in health systems research. He was Director of the Health System Research Institute from 1999 to 2004. Before that he served as the Director of both the AIDS and Epidemiology Divisions under the Ministry of Public Health. He has extensive experience in international research and consultancy services in AIDS and healthcare evaluation programs. He is a member of the Board of Preventive Medicine, Thai Medical Council, and graduated from the Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University.

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may see changes such as universal health insurance, education reform, and decentralization of public administration as part of the overall policy response. This exercise identified many emerging issues in social management, employment, governance, and health service delivery. These reflect the high levels of inequity among Thai people, especially in terms of income distribution, environmental deterioration, and the justice system. Four of these emerging issues are listed below: •

• • •

Evolution in salaried positions: Transformation from the prevailing employment structure in post agro-industrial Thailand to one which is increasingly specialized, service-intensive, and outsourced. Education and learning style in Thai society: Weak learning skills as a barrier to enter a knowledge-based society. Self-service in healthcare: empowerment of all age groups and reducing dependency time among older people. Redefinition of family and community values:

References United Nations and International Association of Gerontology and Geriatrics (2002). Research Agenda on Ageing for the Twenty-First Century, United Nations and International Association of Gerontology and Geriatrics. Crampton, A. (2009). Global Aging: Emerging Challenges. In The PARDEE PAPERS, No. 6, August 2009. The Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, Boston University. Ghazy Mujahid (2006) Population Ageing in East and SouthEast Asia: Current Situation and Emerging Challenges. AsiaPacific Population Journal 21:3 December 2006, p 136-139. UNFPA Country Technical Services Team for East and SouthEast Asia, Bangkok. Jaijagcomel, W (2008) The Future of Population in Asia: Asia’s Aging Population, East-West Center. Kinsella, K. and David R. Phillips (2005) Global Aging: The Challenge of Success. Population Bulletin Vol 60 NO 1, March 2005. Menon, J. and A.M. Nakamura (2009) Aging in Asia: Trends, Impacts and Responses, Working paper series on regional economic integration No. 25. Asian Development Bank, February 2009. United Nations (2007). World Population Ageing 2007, United Nations Publications.

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uncertainty and dilemmas over the traditional structure and values of tomorrow’s Thai family.

Implications: •

•

Singapore and Malaysia in particular have largescale programs with close to universal healthcare coverage, but in most other countries coverage will be more limited in scope and coverage. Developing countries need to start preparing themselves now to ensure that their economies and institutions are capable of supporting an ageing population. For example, Southeast Asian countries can choose from several policy measures to mitigate expected labor shortfalls. Labor force participation rates can be increased, for example, by exploring education reforms to facilitate entry of young adults into the labor force, by extending the economic productivity of ageing populations (e.g. in the context of the knowledge society); promote healthy ageing, removing gender barriers, and increasing the mandatory retirement age, or scrapping it altogether.

Early indicators: •

•

Healthcare systems in Southeast Asia are currently focused on maternal and child health and on reproductive-health services. Rapid declining fertility and longer life expectancy are evident in every country.

Drivers & Inhibitors: Drivers: •

•

Southeast Asia is expected to face rapid and unprecedented ageing of populations over the coming 40 years The proportion of people aged over 65 years is growing faster than any other age group.

Inhibitors: •

Challenge in balancing demands of the elderly from a diminishing base of economically active taxpayers to support large and expensive public health programs.

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Innovation and the Megacity: Reflections from a Grey CitY By Dr. Suchat Udomsopagit Policy researcher, APEC Center for Technology Foresight, STI

IDEA: Bangkok can be characterized as a pluralistic society comprising small communities where people agglomerate based on common interest or benefit, resulting in today’s diversity of contemporary subcultures. Each group is driven by various activities in line with the community’s objectives, including intellectual and spiritual activities. For example, intellectual hermitage is a mechanism for transferring knowledge, experience and skill from the elderly to the young. Public space occurs both in the physical and virtual worlds, thanks to service infrastructure that is easily accessible to people of all ages and socio-economic strata. This article offers a snapshot of plausible future Bangkok scenarios in 2030, as driven by three megatrends: ageing society, low-carbon society and virtual society (which we may paraphrase as the 3G’s - ‘Grey’, ‘Green’ and ‘Google’). We also mention some implications for development, particularly in respect to alleviation of urban poverty.

Scenarios: By the year 2030, city life will be enriched by a range of social and technological innovations to accommodate the increasingly diverse needs of its people, irrespective of age, gender or lifestyle. According to one scenario for Bangkok as a ‘Grey City’, this means embracing not only ‘physical space’, but also other, un-

KEYWORDS: Scenarios; grey innovations; innovation spaces; ageing society; low-carbon society; virtual society familiar forms of spaces, ‘information space’ and ‘cognitive space’.[1] The latter two concepts represent an intensification of interactions between the tangible and intangible worlds. In specific regard to an ageing society, new spatial combinations can be constructed ‘grey innovations’ that change the way humans interact with the three forms of space. We might categorize these into 3 groups, i.e. system innovation, service innovation and architectural innovation.

System Innovation Theoretically, ‘system innovations’ are large-scale transformations in the way societal functions such as transportation, communication, housing, feeding, are fulfilled.[2] It could be considered as innovation within the cognitive space, because it relates to the diverse range of factors that shape institutions that in turn drive the viewpoints and behavior of people. Such institutions include culture, intellectual property law, local regulations and standards. As a community develops and become resilient, a management structure evolves as its focal point, then becomes institutionalized and legalized. The organizational form may be accomplished through representatives or by direct participation of community member; and its legal status might be as a public development corporation, social enterprise, or even a private company. Its functions would normally include environmental and waste management, organization of public services and resolution of local conflicts, especially in relation to land use. This ‘development organization’ may further extend its role to accommodate marginalized interest groups such as the elderly, children and the disabled.

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Advancement in information technology will allow the majority of people increasingly to live in overlapping physical and virtual worlds. The most noticeable manifestation of this would be the proliferation of virtual workspaces where people can work anywhere, anytime. Other likely trends could include the increasing reach and sophistication of social networks for special interest groups, GPS or smart cards for the elderly, health promotion, virtual classrooms etc.

Service innovation Service innovations are often associated with personal knowledge. Typically they may be described as non-technological, tacit and often intangible. Service innovation covers the sharing of knowledge, building of social networks and social information processing. Innovations in transportation can also be expected to result in new modes of public transport by the year 2030, e.g., the ‘Para-transit’ (which can be regarded as feeder systems for major arteries of the mass transit systems, including ‘just-in-time’ para-transit systems.) Enabling factors that facilitate establishment of new transportation modes include competition, investment, and supporting technologies such as fuel-cells and ICT infrastructure linking and controlling different transport systems. Virtual education will have evolved to become the de facto core of tomorrow’s mainstream education systems, as it is conducive to learning anywhere, any-

Telemedicine Source: http://www.edrugstore.md/blog/health-news/ telemedicine-gains-more-support-reimbursement

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time according to individual interests and personal schedules. The scheme also supports lifelong learning. ICT infrastructure will therefore be fundamental to enable universal access to resources such as textbooks, lectures, demonstrations, and guidance from personal mentors. Virtual education requires a flexible curriculum for learners, transformation of pedagogy, and a fundamental change in the role of teachers and the interactions between knowledge providers and recipients. Advancement in health and information technology research and services will enable ubiquitous health monitoring that provides self-care service at a routine level. This focus on preventive medicine will reduce the burden on health services, and reduce therapeutic costs. Such a situation requires an especially robust infrastructure, particularly for critical and advanced applications such as telemedicine and personalized medicine.

Architectural innovation Architectural innovation may be considered as innovation within physical space, which relates to factors such as population density, diversity and distance. Greater awareness of global warming and a commitment to building a ‘low carbon society’ are major driving forces of research and development. These efforts have already borne fruit and show immense promise in diverse applications including zero-carbon housing architecture. In addition, technologies related to renewable energy (e.g. wind, solar, and fuel-cell technologies) will enjoy major breakthroughs in cost, technical efficiency, storage and applications. For example, huge buildings may be painted with photovoltaic material that converts light into electrical energy, and smart decentralized grids will gradually replace large power stations and the associated transmission losses. Moreover, the architecture of buildings and public spaces will be designed for people of all ages. People in a livable city have a good quality of life and die young, as old as possible. Research into robotics, materials sciences, artificial intelligence, cognition and the man-machine interface is about to usher in new generations of robots that meet individual needs – personalized robots, dedicated to specialized tasks such as cleaning, lawn mowing, entertainment, education, personal care, or even just plain companionship.

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Implications: • • • • •

Ubiquitous health monitoring[3] Virtual, life-long education[4] New modes of shared-transportation to support major public transport system[5] New forms of IT abuse Bottom-up style community administration will empower the disadvantaged and help address urban poverty.

Early indicators: • • •

Self-administrative body of community Some personal genetic information in ID card (for some crucial diseases only in affordable individuals) Virtual classes for some university courses, including free electives.

Drivers & Inhibitors: Drivers: • • • • •

Demographic change (ageing society) Technology advancement; e.g. ICT, fuel cell, nanotechnology, etc. Global warming – low-carbon society (LCS) Green and clean trend Inefficiency of public infrastructure e.g. transportation etc.

Inhibitors: • • •

Political instability Low-profile community leader/shortages of effective change agents Extreme capitalism

Old people game Source: http://home.messiah.edu/~ht1182/tech-in-print.html

About the Author: Dr. Suchat Udomsopagit Dr. Suchat is a policy researcher at the APEC Center for Technology Foresight, National Science, Technology and Innovation Policy Office (STI). He has facilitated numerous APEC-CTF foresight activities. He is currently responsible for national science, technology and innovation policy formulation, especially on healthcare, biotechnology, nanotechnology, and the petrochemical industry. He is also an editor of ‘Horizon’ magazine.

References [1] CISASIA’s Workshop on “Towards Innovative, Liveable and Prosperous Asian Megacities” Project, May 18-21, 2009, Ibis Hotel Sathorn, Bangkok Thailand. [2] Scenario Workshop on “City Innovation: Bangkok Metropolitan 2030”, July 9-10, 2010, Nontnatee Resort, Nonthaburi, Thailand. [3] Elzen, B., Geels, F.W., Green, K. (2004) System Innovation and the Transition to Sustainability. Theory, Evidence and Policy, Cheltenham and Northampton: Edward Elgar [4] http://www.metafuture.org/cla papers/Inayatullah Ageing alternative futures and policy choices Foresight.pdf [5] http://www.teknologiportalen.dk/NR/rdonlyres/43A171538159-4FD5-83BB-67D33F650897/3636/Reviewofscienceandtechnology.pdf [6] http://www.lcs2050.com/file/view/nares_project+intro.pdf

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Coming of the Grey Collar Age By Asst. Prof. Dr. Apiwat Ratanawaraha, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Chulalongkorn University

IDEA: The ‘ageing’ of Southeast Asia’s populations raises many fundamental issues. This article explores one of these – how to deal with a senior workforce that is healthy, lively, active, knowledgeable, experienced and articulate. The dilemma is real and imminent: very soon, the ’grey collar’ workers will become the fastest growing segment of the workforce in countries such as Singapore and Thailand. Public policies and businesses alike will need radical reform to accommodate these many issues.

Scenarios: A Longer Road to Retire: The debate over ageing societies has centered on the increasing tax burden created by the need to support a rising proportion of elderly retirees. One direct consequence will be that incomes of retired people will have to fall in real terms relative to those of working age. Secondly, policy responses will include an extension of the mandatory retirement age. Moreover, we may predict that with the increase in citizen empowerment across the board, tomorrow’s senior citizens will increasingly assert their rights and needs in terms of politics, lifestyle and in the workplace. Sooner rather than later, we are likely to see the official retirement age raised beyond 65 for most economic

KEYWORDS: Ageing population; grey collar; life-long learning; grey collar economy; Singapore; Thailand sectors and occupations in Thailand and Singapore. People aged over 65 will keep working to earn income because they want to eventually retire more comfortably. Others may need to work because their current savings and other pension schemes are not enough to support their basic needs or lifestyle. Those who already have jobs will hold onto them; those without will have to compete with people half their age. Older workers are particularly vulnerable to economic downturns, as employers tend to keep younger workers commanding lower wages. Meanwhile, we will of course see more female than male “grey collar” workers, as women generally live longer than men.

Entrepreneurship and the Grey Collar Class “Grey” innovators and entrepreneurs will not be uncommon. Despite the current image of entrepreneurship as the province of the young, epitomized by a few figures such as Google’s Larry Page and Sergey Brin and Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg, the ‘grentrepreneurs’ will be the real force behind the entrepreneurial economy of Southeast Asia. This trend is already happening in the United States, where the highest rate of entrepreneurship has shifted to the 55–64 age group.[1] Many of those who are not business-oriented will be relegated to join a sort of cadre of “grey labor”. Though the rise of the grey collar worker might seem like a new phenomenon, in many developing economies, the formerly-white-now-grey collar workers represent the affluent middle-class. For the working-class, ‘blue collar,’ and ‘no-collar’ workers in the informal sector, along with the ageing workers in the agricultural sec-

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tor, retirement remains an optional extra. Economic realities, especially the limited social safety net for the elderly, require them to continue working until they are no longer physically able. In Thailand, for instance, nearly 60 percent of the workforces are employed in the informal sector. A high proportion are older, as younger workers often replace those employed in the “formal sector” once they reach 40.[2] Currently one-third of the elderly in Thailand have to work to support themselves and their families.

A Full Cycle Life-Long Learning? The majority of elderly workers in Southeast Asia have limited formal education. Some 60 percent continue to work because they are the main source of family income.[3] It is estimated that between 2009 and 2019, about 5.4% of the elderly workers in Thailand will enter the job market, but the labor demand will increase by only 2.5%.[4] Everywhere in cities and rural villages, we still see older people working as hard as they physically can. The average age of farmers in Thailand is rising and has now reached 51 years.[5] With the breakdown of the informal social safety net that once sustained rural life, more state support will be needed for ageing workers in the rural and informal sectors.

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Although as a group, ‘grey collar‘ workers have extensive experience and knowledge, they still need to acquire new knowledge and skills to keep pace with technological change and the ever-changing labor market. More and more 65+ workers will return to formal education to obtain degrees, or take short courses to re-equip themselves with new skills. The government may have to extend its subsidies for university enrolment and training for seniors who remain in the job market. Governmental support for job training and placement for older workers will become necessary. Life-long learning policies and strategies will need to be in place. There will be more websites and recruiters focusing on seniors looking for employment and vice versa. As workers approach retirement age, they tend to invest less in new skills and knowledge, but this will change if they realize they have to work longer. Legal protection for older workers will also have to be broadened to prevent age discrimination in the workplace and the job market. Though the younger generation is of course way ahead in utilizing new ICT products and services, this could change as elderly workers become more technologically savvy. The digital divide among sections of the ‘grey collar‘ population segment is likely to widen more rapidly than in the general population. Elderly workers who are early adopters of new technologies will continue to do so, while those who are not will fall further behind.

Drifting towards a “Grey Collar” Economy In many respects, Singapore’s citizens face similar challenges. They will have to work longer to build enough savings for retirement. Those with limited savings will increasingly rely on government pension schemes. We may eventually see more senior Singaporeans migrating from the island state to neighboring countries, finding employment as highlyskilled professionals, entrepreneurs, and investors in Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, and China. In Thailand, the future of the older workers will be more uncertain. In this sense, how the grey collars in Thailand react to such socio-economic shifts may offer a good lesson for their neighbors, especially Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia. © PACEYES

The future of the grey collar is not bright. The gap be-

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tween blue and white collar workers worsens as they grow older. Inequality in incomes and assets is expected to be greater among the elderly than among younger workers. There could be some career convergence of formerly white and blue collar workers for certain jobs that are less physically demanding and require less advanced skills and training. Examples include call-center representatives, shop cashiers, and other service jobs. We can expect more part-time workers, as employers do not wish to provide benefits. Will the existing economy be good enough to embrace them? If not, what will be an appropriate economic regime for ageing societies? In this regard, we may see a new type of economy, the so-called ’grey collar’ economy.

Implications: • •

Public policy reform will become even more necessary to assist elderly workers in the agricultural and urban informal sectors. The reverse master-apprenticeship model: the elderly apprentices learn new technologically-advanced knowledge and skills from the young masters.

Early indicators: • •

• • •

Fewer grandparents to take care of grandchildren; nanny business continues to grow. More elderly people want more skills and knowledge; more seniors enroll in graduate schools, universities, and technical schools, even prep schools for exams. Short courses are designed for the elderly, especially in IT-related fields. Some recruiters build databases of consultants who have retired from full-time jobs but are willing to work short-term. More voluntary work by retirees.

Drivers & Inhibitors:

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Drivers: • •

Advancement in medical technologies that make people live even longer, healthier and more active. Advancement of ICTs that allow the elderly workers to continue working.

Inhibitors: •

Large influx of young immigrant workers from neighboring countries, who will compete for low-wage, low-skill jobs.

About the Author: Dr. Apiwat Ratanawaraha Apiwat Ratanawaraha is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, Thailand, where he teaches infrastructure planning and finance, urban management, and economic development. His current research includes projects on city innovations in Southeast Asian megacities, on infrastructure justice, and on inequality in access to basic services in Thailand. He has been a Visiting Assistant Professor at the Department of Urban Studies and Planning at MIT, teaching infrastructure finance and energy security. He was a Doctoral Fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, conducting research on infrastructure, technological development and innovation policy.

References [1] Stangler, D. (2009) The Coming Entrepreneurship Boom. Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation. http://www.kauffman. org/uploadedFiles/the-coming-entrepreneurial-boom.pdf [2] United Nations Development Program (UNDP) (2010) Thailand Human Development Report 2009, “Human Security, Today and Tomorrow,” Bangkok: UNDP. [3] http://www.moc.moe.go.th/node/894 [4] Ibid. [5]Chearaphan, W. (2009) Household Debt of Farmers in Rural Thailand (in Thai). A research report submitted the Thailand Research Fund.

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INTERVIEW with Dr. Trirat Jarutach By Dr. Pun-Arj Chairatana,

Managing Director – Noviscape Consulting Group

Q: What is your 2030 scenario for an ageing society in Southeast Asia? “First I would note that Southeast Asia’s populations are ageing at different rates. Whilst Singapore and Thailand have already been categorized as ageing societies since the early 2000s, Cambodia and Laos both have very young populations. The rest of ASEAN member states fall somewhere between these extremes, but are catching up fast. “We categorize societies as ‘ageing’ according to the expected time for the proportion of older people in the population to increase from 7 to 14 percent. In general, this happens faster in less developed countries than in the developed world. For example, Sin-

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gapore is projected to take only 19 years (from 2000 to 2019), with 22 years for Thailand (2003 - 2027), 23 years for Sri Lanka (2004 - 2027), and 26 years for China (2000 - 2026). In France the process took 115 years. Japan is an exception to the situation in most developed countries; it took only 26 years (from 1970 to 1996) to become an ageing society. “If the international projections on ageing population are accurate; Singapore and Thailand will reach the status of ageing society within the next decade. Malaysia will join the club in the mid-2020s. Asia’s societies and economies have a very short period to prepare for this reality.”

Q: Singapore and Thailand are already becoming ageing societies. Could these countries become hubs for the ‘active aged’ in this region? “I think there are around three locations in Thailand which have undergone a dynamic localized transformation to serve potential aged clients. There are suburban Bangkok and its vicinities, the resort cities of Pattaya and Phuket, and of course Chiang Mai. “The lifestyles of East Asian and Westerners are very different. East Asians tend to invest in housing much

About Associate Professor Trirat Jarutach Associate Professor Trirat is Head of the Department of Housing Development, Faculty of Architecture, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand. His research specializes in housing and real estate development, and architecture and housing for ageing societies. His projects include a project on minimum housing and environmental standards for the elderly in Thailand, as well a study that proposes the Universal Design Code of Practice. Other research and consulting works include a study on housing demand in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region during the economic crisis in the late 1990s, a study that proposes a prototype of an IT campus, and the Master Plan for housing development in the areas around Suvarnabhumi Airport in Bangkok.

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earlier than the counterparts from the West. Westerner prefers to invest in housing after retirement. Even the term “retirement” itself is fairly new to us. We tend to have a relaxed and varied work and home lifestyle, regardless of age group. “Key ingredients to attract seniors are a safe and secure community, good health services, and other leisure facilities. This combination makes Thailand a preferred destination in this region for retirees or newlife residences for both Westerners and Asians alike. “We cannot claim that a few manmade communities for retirees from developed countries, such as the Swedish communities in Pattaya or the Japanese long-stay communities in Bangkok and Chiang Mai, and similar projects signal a new trend in migration from those of the Snow birds! “In my opinion, there are two interesting signals for change: intra-regional relocation and the opening up of the Luang Prabang corridor along the Thai-Laos border provinces, particularly Nong Kai, Nakhon Phanom, and Udon Thani, because of natural heritage, weather, low cost of living, and good transport links. Also, we can anticipate more Singaporean and Thai retirees relocating their residences to suburban megacities in Thailand and in Laos, and more wealthy Chinese retirees relocating to Cambodia and Laos. We are already seeing attractive, modern and functional design in today’s retiree communities in Thailand, and in future we are likely to see urban design progressing even further along the lines of ‘Universal Design’ (UD).

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Q: Do you have any key messages regarding to the future of grey architectural design? “The governments of most Southeast Asian countries are still debating how to respond to their ageing populations, through regulation, health service reform, security and pension schemes, and elderly people’s rights. I would like to propose that ASEAN governments need to take the issue as a more urgent priority, as the grey society in this region be upon us much sooner than we think, and there is a long lag before policy reforms gain traction.

Universal Design (UD) Universal Design (UD) refers to broad-spectrum architectural planning ideas meant to produce buildings, products and environments that are inherently accessible to both the able-bodied and the physically disabled. There are 7 principles for the UD; 1) equitable use; 2) flexibility in use; 3) simple and intuitive; 4) perceptible information; 5) tolerance for error; 6) low physical effort; and 7) size and space for approach and use.

(Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_design)

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TREND TOOLS Scenario Building By Dr. Pun-Arj Chairatana,

Managing Director – Noviscape Consulting Group

Scenario building is among the most well-known and extensively utilized tool in foresight research. It is a planning tool for future challenge preparation, rather than a prediction of what will happen. This tool allows us to identify future option spaces and assist in decision making and risk management based on a set of uncertainties. Scenario building is a qualitative-oriented method that creates plausible views and imaginative pictures of potential futures in order to offer robust guidelines to help in selection among alternative policy responses. It is the art of ‘thinking the unthinkable’ for ‘strategic vision’. The method provides a contextual basis for the four elements of strategic planning for the future. There

Sidewalk Scenarios Source: http://www.randomspecific.com/sidewalk-scenarios

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are new concept ideation, knowledge formulation, roadmapping, and consensus building among key stakeholders. The process starts from a wide exploration of ideas to a progressive narrowing of focus, from environmental/horizon scanning to envisioning potential futures and then, determining alternative responses. There are various approaches depending on our objective. For example, crisis scenarios are designed for prevention or reaction to unpleasant surprises such as natural disasters, radical changes in a business model, security conflicts, or pandemics. Projectspecific scenarios are bounded by scope of implementation, timeframe, and budget. The time span is usually shorter than other types of scenario exercise, because of the typical need for fast responses. The third type operates on a considerably larger scale, involving exploration or consensus-building scenarios relating e.g. to public policy or critical social issues that require wide public consultation as grounds for decision making. Questions such as the future of nations, selection of political systems, governance and social contracts would fall into this category. The tool helps us understand variety of possible options through visualizing various futures and the implications of the scenario’s premises. These imaginative, fee-flow exercises help us avoid negative surprises, break through preconceptions and acquire a common understanding of the real issues. The tool gives us a manageable way to challenge our possible decisions against a range of possible scenarios, and deal with complex adaptive environments where the outcome is uncertain. Scenario building helps sharpen our strategic thinking skills about the future through using role play and team activities. Often, the process may identify new issues for further horizon scanning. The tool has several weaknesses. For example, selection of participants is key, because of the possibility of self-reinforcement of invalid scenarios by participants without specialist domain knowledge.

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TRENDNOVATION SOUTHEAST NEWSLETTER

Scenario Building Process Source: Complied by Author

Sometimes, the story may lack credibility as it is too subjective or meaningless, or the future has come too soon and proved that the scenarios are just plain wrong. Too difficult to validate, complex, and conflict on cognitive or cultural myopia could be negative variable that leads to scenario failure. Scenario building process can be described as a 10– step process: 1) scoping of issues/problems/domain; 2) collection of information; 3) identify drivers/ driving forces; 4) explore uncertainties; 5) create scenarios; 6) plot the story and details; 7) determine scenario application; 8) identify key indicators; 9) evaluate and monitor key indicators; 10) communicate and revisit scenario to update scenarios and strategies. In Asia Pacific, many scenario exercises have been conducted at the sectoral, national, and regional scales since the early 2000s. The exercises cover a diversity of issues, ranging from ageing society to

zero emissions. For example, Mega-cities foresight in Southeast Asia in 2010 and 2011, low carbon society in 2009, health insurance in 2008, ageing society, city foresight and emerging infectious diseases in 2007.

References Sripaipan, C. and Damrongchai, N. (2008). A Decade of Foresight: Technology Foresight in Asia – Pacific 1998 – 2008, APEC Center for Technology Foresight, Bangkok, Thailand. Kees Van Der Heijden (1996). Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Ralston, B. and Wilson, I. (2006). The Scenario Planning Handbook: Developing Strategies in Uncertain Times. Thomson, USA. Schwartz, P. (1991). The Art of Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. Currency Doubleday, New York.

Dr. Wiput Phoolcharoen Dr. Suchat Udomsopagit Dr. Apiwat Ratanawaraha Assoc. Prof. Dr. Trirat Jarutach Dr. Pun-Arj Chairatana Writers / Information Specialist Nartrapee Wongseangchundr Project co-ordinator William Wyn Ellis Chief Editor Pinchathana Atthiwatthana Graphic Designer Regional Horizon / Environment Scanning (HS/ES) and trend monitoring for issues relevant to people, life, and regional transformation across the Southeast Asian region.

Trendnovation Southeast Newsletter is published by

Noviscape Consulting Group (NCG) www.noviscape.com