Issue 4 Digital Politics Apr 2010 by Noviscape Consulting Group

www.trendsoutheast.org

4th

UE ISeS 010 mber 2

Sept

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DIGITAL POLITICS Boost, Block, and Ban: The Next Decade of Digital Politics in Southeast Asia

Digital Democracy: A New Era of Digital Connectivity Digital Picket line: Future of Political Technologies

Interview with Kan Yuenyong Bibliometrics: A Tool for Foresight

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reserved by Michael LaP

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LEADER

ISSUE 4 - DIGITAL POLITICS

Welcome to this fourth issue of TrendNovation Southeast, which focuses on the implications of the digital revolution on the political arena in Southeast Asia. The phenomenon of ‘digital politics’ has swept across the region, presenting governments with new challenges, dilemmas and threats, and citizens with new opportunities to mobilize and be heard. But we also see this past decade as just a period of ‘tooling up’. Convergence of digital tools and applications, along with increasing political consciousness at grass roots level, promise far greater levels of sophistication and perhaps even a transformation of the political game within this decade. We begin with an article by Dr Pun-Arj Chairatana, who offers a structured definition of digital politics. He points to technological innovation and convergence as enablers for political and technological neophytes (‘netizens’, ‘cyber-libertarians’), allowing them to challenge the traditional political landscape through a new game of ‘virtual democracy’. Dr Pun-Arj reminds us too of the potentially disruptive nature of such a shift, using the recent technology intensive cybertactics used both by government and the red-shirt protesters in Thailand as an example of the changing face of politics.

By Wyn Ellis Chief Editor

The second article is written by Prof Ubonrat Siriyuvasak, media reform activist and Professor of Communications at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University. Contending that the digitization of Southeast Asia has created rising expectations in regard to basic rights and freedom of expression, Prof Ubonrat anticipates a political awakening among ordinary citizens. Citing campaigns mounted by the global Burmese diaspora, she points also to the power of the Net to identify and mobilize like-minded people not only in their respective countries, but also across the world. Prof Ubonrat’s article is followed by a short commentary by Poomjit Sirawongprasert, who, as President of the Thai Hosting Service Providers Club and guest lecturer in IT at Bangkok University International College, has long been a vocal campaigner against internet censorship. She has played key roles not only in the development of the internet in Thailand, but also in monitoring the associated social, ethical and regulatory issues at regional and global levels. Her unique perspective has enabled her to contribute an insightful article on the ascendancy of digital politics as a force for accountability and grass-roots democracy in Southeast Asia. This month, TrendNovation Southeast interviews Kan Yuenyong, founder and Director of the Siam Intelligence Unit, an alternative think tank and research service focusing on social, environment, business and economic issues. Mr Kan discusses the origins of digital politics in this region, and particularly identifies tight State control over traditional media as a major factor in fuelling the influence of digital media in Southeast Asia’s political arena. Finally, the Trend Tools section discusses the use of bibliometrics to evaluate the influence of emerging technologies or issues, and its versatility as a powerful tool which can contribute new perspectives to foresight exercises such as scenario planning. This issue is also available online at http://www.trendsoutheast.org, and we value your feedback and comments.

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Boost, Block, and Ban:

The Next Decade of Digital Politics in Southeast Asia What is Digital Politics? The first decade of the New Millennium saw a dramatic increase in the extent and dynamism of the interface between humans and information and communication technologies (ICTs) in Southeast Asia; this era was marked especially by many new applications of wireless and internet technologies. The emergence of this ‘digital economy’ signals a new era of growth through exploitation of a new asset or production factor- information. Over the past decade, technology has greatly potentiated the power of information to shape the regional socio-political terrain. With ICTs closely correlated with the spread of democracy, new spaces and modalities for political debate and participation have opened up, giving new meaning and momentum to the democratic process. Over the next decade, we can anticipate these stillrudimentary tools to evolve towards a much higher level of sophistication. Waves of ICT applications in politics have empowered groups of political neophytes (‘netizens’, ‘cyber-libertarians’; ‘digitizedlatecomers’), extending the power of people at the bottom of the pyramid to shape and transform the conventional Southeast Asian political game into a stage of ‘virtual democracy”=’. The seeds of such a potentially disruptive shift have already germinated, as groups of increasingly netsavvy citizens share political content in real time. In just seconds they can create exclusive cyber- and on-air societies in order to engage in political lobbying, networking, amplifying their own views, co-developing tools for movements demanding free speech, transparency and human rights. Such groups can empower citizens, e.g. in roles such as watching the watchers, political protest, or arranging direct action. It is important to note that direct action may manifest itself in violent, as well as non-violent ways. Today, Southeast Asia offers many examples of the

By Dr Pun-Arj Chairatana, Managing Director – Noviscape Consulting Group increasing embrace by mainstream political parties of online platforms on social networking sites (especially Facebook and Twitter), individual and official party blogs and websites, community radio and SMS to communicate with voters. The networks, which are powerfully anti-censorship, offer alternative platforms for news, information, and political mobilization, Social networking sites are thought to be a factor in the organizational effectiveness of the April-May street protests in Bangkok. In this new political cyber-battleground, old rules don’t apply. Cronyism, long entrenched in Southeast Asian power structures, will have to make room for the newcomers- powerful incumbent groups of cyber-libertarians. In this article, we present three scenarios for digital politics in Southeast Asia - Boost, Block, and Ban. These scenarios consider alternative perspectives of the impact of digital interaction among these three groups of power players and their constituents.

Scenario A: Boost Me Up with More Byte! This scenario stems from the powerful and often oligopolistic market power of ICT / telecoms sectors in Southeast Asian countries. Economic benefits (pricing, taxation and monopoly power) will continue to constrain network coverage, bandwidth and costs, thereby exacerbating the rural-urban digital divide. The good news is that Southeast Asia’s digital infrastructure is slowly being upgraded, allowing

Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reﬂect the ofﬁcial positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation. Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.

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Defining Digital Politics In a broad sense, digital politics is a process by which groups of people make digitally collective decisions. Digital politics is mainly about the intersection of politics, internet and other wireless technologies among Netizens and their particular societies within a non-physical space through connectivity and content. __________________________________________________________

In a narrow sense, digital politics is an interactive process among key stakeholders in the digital economy, who seek for specific longterm benefit and control over digital infrastructure and content. __________________________________________________________

Digital Politics Puzzles Uniqueness of digital politics is convergence of technologies and politics. This emerging issue challenges us to see futuristic picture beyond the current understanding on man and his new machine. Five elements of digital politics compose of connectivity, citizenship, circle, content, and community.

Freedom of Speech Source: http://vidajev.wordpress.com/2009/09/05/

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unprecedented possibilities for visualization of largescale information in cyber space. This will pave the way for investment in vertical integration, retrieval architecture, mega-data management, mining, and storage. The region’s love affair with public-private partnerships will extend to the ICT/telecom sectors across ASEAN as well as the other ‘Big Three’ (China, India, and Japan). Upgraded physical platforms will increase net penetration and enhance participation in a new digital society. For lower income earners, gradually falling costs will open the door to a diversity of access choices and widen opportunities to learn how to communicate and participate online. Political activism offers a new and intriguing playground for such newcomers. Whether such a scenario will succeed in reducing the digital divide depends in large measure on access and connection cost. Governance issues are already emerging and may prove intractable (e.g. privacy, censorship, political dissent, etiquette and national security). How will citizens participate in such a digital society? What level of political dissent will be tolerated, and how might the new-found tools for mass political mobilization destabilize nations?

Scenario B: You Block, We hack! The global volume of digital information increases by the millisecond, mostly unverified and unrestrained by censorship. An increasing threat to political stability is presented by the prospect of digitally literate political foes, particularly those with extreme agendas, mobilizing and manipulating Netizens for their specific purpose, and perhaps culminating in a real-life violent face-off. In this scenario, cyberlibertarians, which could be pro- or anti- governing regimes will have reach a sophisticated level of digital literacy. When ordinary Netizens have the capability to use digital technology, they will communicate and exchange political idea freely, and a new techno-vocabulary is already mounting. Political interests undoubtedly appreciate the strategic significance of new digital media but are struggling to build their understanding and capacity to harness them strategically in the digital propaganda war. The default reflex reaction by government is to block and censor sites deemed undesirable under often deliberately ambiguous and subjective legal categories such as ‘the national interest’. But blocking access to politically sensitive informa-

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tion including broadcasting guarantees that IT-savvy originators will find alternative routes to safeguard their cherished freedom of expression. The resulting cat-and-mouse games, including hacking of websites and use of anonymous proxy servers echoes guerilla warfare more than classical war strategy. In this case, the government is continually playing technological catch-up against a more technologically competent adversary, often with no specific geographical identity. Rarely have governments succeeded, and then only in the short term, to block information from their citizens. Truth will out!

Scenario C: For security reasons, Ban it! Southeast Asia is full of cultural taboos, and digital content deemed to attack or violate religious beliefs or specific issues is often banned. These apply for a classical norm that all governments want to monitor their enemies’ communications, and their citizens. However, as we noted above, such information is hard to ban completely, and the internationalization of cultural mindsets accompanying internet use will definitely desensitize Asians from at least some such taboos. Recent political protests in Myanmar, Philippines, and Thailand reflect the beginning of a complex global-scale battle between government groups wanting to securitize and monitor their critics by controlling and monitoring the electronic media. Netizens have responded by encrypting sensitive their messages to frustrate such surveillance. Governments therefore try to restrict availability of strong cryptography as much as possible. In the future, emerging issues associated with digital laws, rights and responsibilities will figure largely in public debate, and will require great sensitivity to balance basic human legal rights against restrictions governing technology use. In this scenario, perhaps the key question will be how ready are users to protect the rights of others to defend their own digital rights?

Freedom on the Internet — Protest banner of Brazilian bloggers and netizens Source: http://advocacy.globalvoicesonline.org/2008/11/16/brazilflash-mob-protest-against-digital-crimes-bill/

References: Abbott, J. P. (2004) The Political Economy of the Internet in Asia and the Pacific Digital Divides, Economic Competitiveness, and Security Challenges. New York: Praeger. Atkinson, R. D. and Ham, S. (2003) Does Digital Politics Still Matter? In The New Atlantis, Fall 2003. Boonruang, S. (2010) New media to continue growing in importance: Piracy, censorship remain user concerns, in Bangkok Post, 31 January 2010. Levy, S. (2001), Crypto: How the Code Rebels Beat the Government -- Saving Privacy in the Digital Age, Penguin 2001, Shearer, J. and Gutmann, P. (1996) Government, Cryptography, and the Right To Privacy, the Journal of Universal Computer Science (J.UCS), Volume 2, No.3, p.113 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/7914828.stm

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Digital Democracy:

A new era of digital connectivity By Prof Ubonrat Siriyuvasak, Chulalongkorn University

Trend 1: Emergence of personalized content through digital connectivity The New Millennium has brought Southeast Asian society a step closer to a digital revolution triggered by the proliferation of information and communication technologies (ICTs). Internet penetration is growing fast across the region- in Thailand, penetration jumped from 20.5% (13.4 million users) in 2007 to 25% (16.1 million users) in 2008 (NECTEC 2008, 2009). However, the 2009 survey also revealed a new trend- a sudden jump in the richness of news and information content on websites, but also an explosion of user-generated content on web boards, blogs and micro-blogs such as Twitter, SMS and social networking sites, notably Facebook. These activities have also gone mobile in a big way, with smart phone use surging across the region. Convergence and connectivity are making a dramatic difference to the lives of citizens, especially in terms of information access, political consciousness and public participation. Politicians have shifted uncomfortably in their seats with this democratization of information, and as political activism migrates to an uncharted digital battleground.

Digitization in Southeast Asia Independent online news, satellite television and local cable services are mushrooming, offering alternatives to traditional mainstream press and broadcasting channels. Community radio networks also play an increasing role, often playing a cat-and mouse game with government as they test the limits of media freedom by broadcasting via the Internet. Although internet access in Thailand ranks behind Malaysia and is approximately on par with Vietnam, the rise in digital connectivity is building new communicative spaces, crossing age, gender, class and ethnic boundaries in both urban and rural areas. Even with today’s comparatively low speeds and patchy connectivity, the increasing complexity of digital matrices allows news and information to crisscross the world instantly, to inform, entice and entertain users and audiences around the clock. Importantly, these networks are not only flourishing – they are co-evolving with each other as well as with traditional media. The classical digital divide is being bridged through innovation, presenting the ‘conventional’ digital paradigm with new and unfamiliar challenges.

Rising expectations for rights and freedom of expression In empowering individuals to instantly ‘publish’ to the world, digital media has created a new battlefront as citizens enthusiastically exercise their rights to information and freedom of expression. Although for the most part these rights are enshrined in law (e.g. in Thailand through the Constitution and the Official Information Act), uncontrolled, most Southeast Asian governments view such developments as a threat to political stability. But with individual citizens increasingly playing the role of public watchdog using the new free media,

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governments are subject to unprecedented scrutiny and uncensored critique, ironically just as the independence of traditional media has been inexorably curbed and undermined over the past decade.

Thailand model: politicization of the media Under the Thaksin Shinawatra regime the media faced increasing levels of intimidation, coercion and defamation suits, creating what was seen as a ‘climate of fear’, rolling back previous progress in media freedom (Asia Media Report 2006). Though Thaksin’s ouster by a military coup in September 2006 was unsurprisingly cheered by the mainstream media, the euphoria was short-lived. Just as they helped legitimize the coup-appointed government of Prime Minister Surayud Chulanond, community radio channels and websites voicing criticism of the coup were summarily closed down. iTV, a commercial television station owned by Thaksin’s Shin Corp, was even nationalized (Kularb 2007). The annual report of Freedom House (an independent watchdog that monitors freedom and advocates for democracy and human rights), in its assessment of perceived democratic freedoms in each country, downgraded Thailand’s freedom of expression ranking from ‘free’ to ‘partially free’. Further curbing political criticism, the coup-appointed National Legislative Assembly (NLA) then passed five media laws, with the Internet bearing the brunt of the impact. The 2007 Computer-related Crime Act, under the Ministry of Information and Communications Technology (MICT), prohibits distribution and falsification of information and visual images deemed harmful to national and economic security, public safety and services. The Act’s ambiguous language allows considerable room for interpretation, and in practice, allows officials to conduct raids to seize servers or suspected computers. Service providers

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found ‘supporting’ the offence may also face charges, with penalties ranging from three to fifteen years imprisonment (Article 9-16). After the coup in 2006 charges on lèse-majesté against individuals have increased dramatically and MICT has shut down more than 2,000 websites alleged to have contained lèsemajesté material (Thai Netizen Network – TNN, 26 May 2009). Thaksin Shinawatra’s strategy of media control and intimidation sowed the seeds of polarization both in the media into ‘pro-Thaksin’ and ‘anti-Thaksin’ camps. Government and Opposition, the élites, bureaucracy, judiciary, media and civil society organizations all took sides in their efforts to capture audiences, votes or political ends. Sondhi Limthongkul, Thaksin’s

friend-turned-foe, owner of satellite channel ASTV and the Manager Media Group, played a key role in mobilizing mass protests for the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) in 2006, which led to the September coup. In 2008 ASTV carried live broadcasts of the PAD’s 193-day occupation of Government House and Don Muang and Suvarnabhumi international airports to subscribers nationwide, along with hard-hitting political rhetoric (McCargo 2009). But the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) or Red Shirts, organized by political supporters of Thaksin and his disbanded Thai Rak Thai Party, also had their own media voice. PTV or People TV, along with networks of community radio, cable TV, websites and print media, mobilized their constituents, especially within his support base in the northeast. During the UDD rallies in 2008, 2009 and 2010 Thaksin constantly sent political messages from overseas via satellite video link and Twitter. Digital media technology enabled both PAD and UDD to make use of satellite broadcasts, which proved technically difficult to censor. These media connected with a wide range of digital networks such as local cable services, community radio, the Internet, and social web networks. Together, these media were effective in politicizing and radicalizing their audiences. Since they were not subject to any real governance or requirement to offer balanced perspective, their daily programmes not only reported, but also magnified, over-simplified and distorted events to manipulate audiences to suit political aims.

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Trend 2: Digital mobilization and new political consciousness From the 1990s to 2000s, Indonesia and the Philippines underwent political transformation, which was dubbed as ‘digital democracy’. The movement to topple President Suharto in 1998 in Indonesia was driven by the underground press and the Internet. Although at the time, the Internet was still a novel technology, the anti-Suharto movement succeeded in effectively harnessing it to connect with and mobilize Indonesians worldwide. Likewise, in the Philippines, President Estrada resigned as a result of the People Power II - EDSA 2 movement in 2001, in which SMS messages were the main medium used to inform and mobilize protesters, earning the nickname ‘the text revolution’. Digital technologies are increasingly influencing politics in Thailand, too. In the most recent violent confrontations between the Democrat-led government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and UDD, which took place in 2009 and 2010, the political struggle was fought both on the streets and in cyberspace. Whilst the government crackdown of UDD protesters at Rajadamnern and Rajaprasong in April and May 2010 resulted in 90 deaths and nearly 2,000 injured, the government used emergency powers to shut down UDD’s media access, including PTV and several magazines - Voice of Taksin, Truth Today, Thai Red News and Wiwatha (CRES Order 71/2553), and over two dozen community radio stations (CPMR 14 July 2010). The Ministry of Information and Communications Technology claims to have blocked 2,200 proRedshirt websites (Thai Rath 15 June 2010) under the same emergency powers. Commentators view the popular/mass politics on the Internet and other form of digital media as the rise of a new-found political consciousness, unprecedented in Thai society. Bangkok’s established middle classes

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and the nouveau middle classes in provincial cities are actively engaging and organizing themselves along polarized political lines, typically characterized as an ideological confrontation between the traditional elite’s notion of ‘guided democracy’, protected by the patronage system, versus ‘commoner democracy’ in which citizens could exercise their political rights and participate freely and equally under the rule of law (Mukdawijitra 2010). But the depth of social polarization precipitated by recent political events has dismayed and sorely embarrassed many Thais, for whom unity and compromise are national virtues. The disappointment of Bangkok’s middle class with the bias of the mainstream media led to yet more, self-organized ‘pro-Abhisit’ social networks, aiming to promote reconciliation between the colour-coded foes. The Multi-Color Movement, for example, mobilized large groups through their cyber networks and pitched themselves, in weekly demonstrations, against the Red Shirts, whose protests were widely blamed for damaging Thailand’s economy and international reputation. But it is not all about compromise- the ‘Social Sanction’ group engages in contentious cyber warfare, hunting and condemning anyone they deem to be ‘Red’. Dan Rivers of CNN was accused of biased reporting and Witawat Taaokamlue or Mark V11, a contestant on the Academy Fantasia programme, was forced out of the contest due to his criticism of Prime Minister Abhisit on the Internet.

Source: http://nowsourcing.com/2008/04/14/ social-media-democracy/

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e-Democraccy Source: http://vidajev.wordpress.com/2009/09/05/

Future trend of ‘digital democracy’ Thailand’s embrace of online politics has transformed the political landscape, which is heading into uncharted waters. Whilst governments have historically cast a long shadow over traditional media, the freedom of digital media has also been heavily curbed; opposition voices have been silenced using harsh new legal measures that allow more extensive surveillance and censorship of the Internet. But the color-coded politics will be difficult to reconcile without an open public forum for genuine political debate. And therein lies the irony- in countries which enjoy genuine freedom of expression through traditional media, digital politics have had relatively little impact compared with their phenomenal influence in Southeast Asia. With the genie already out of the bottle, ASEAN may see a significant political upsurge in the coming years, as a popular and ultimately effective popular weapon against State repression. For example, In Malaysia where internet access averages 60%, the government’s continuous and unjustified suppression of political dissent prevents legitimate and meaningful political debate, and can ultimately lead to deeper and abrupt conflict.

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tinuing to tightly control public participation in the political arena. Progress in the ongoing transformation of Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos from centralized socialist economies towards a more liberal market economic model will undoubtedly be hampered unless restrictions on political expression are relaxed in tandem with economic liberalization. The case of Burma, where opposition voices are totally suppressed, offers a dark perspective. The recent protests and their global impact were only possible through extensive use of mobile phones and the internet, with the support from the global diaspora. Though ultimately the protests were crushed, clearly the generals were shaken, and dissidents can take heart in the potential of digital media to accomplish positive political change through giving citizens a real voice. The Internet and new forms of multimedia have given birth to a new generation of politically savvy citizens, who perhaps can hold their governments more accountable than ever before.

References Asia Media Report: A Crisis Within. Bangkok: Inter-Press Service Asia-Pacific. Campaign for Popular Media Reform (2010) Seminar on “Banning community radio under the Emergency Decree”, 14 July 2010. Castells, M. (1997) “Informational politics and the crisis of democracy” in The Information Age: Economy, Society and Culture – Volume II The Power of Identity. Oxford: Blackwell. Kularb, P. (2007) “Communicating to the mass on cyberspace: Freedom of expression and content regulation on the Internet” in Chavarong Limpattamapanee and Srnaud Leveau (eds) State and Media in Thailand During Political Transition, Bangkok: IRASEC. McCargo, D. (2009) “Thai politics as reality TV”, Journal of Asian Studies. 68:1, February 2009, pp. 7–19. Mukdawijitra, Y. (2010) Seminar on “Change in rural areas, change in political constituents”, Journalist Association of Thailand, 18 July 2010. NECTEC (2008) Internet User Profile of Thailand 2008, Bangkok. NECTEC (2009) Internet User Profile of Thailand 2009, Bangkok.

ASEAN countries today face increasing risks in conDisclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reﬂect the ofﬁcial positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation. Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.

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Digital Picket line

Future of Political Technologies By Poomjit Sirawongprasert, President of Thai Hosting Service Providers Club

The 2000s: A Decade of Cybermigration In 2000, the e-ASEAN Framework Agreement was launched to facilitate establishment of the Southeast Asia information infrastructure in order to leverage hardware and software systems needed to access, process and share information, and to promote regional economic growth from electronic commerce applications. These initiatives were aimed in part to cope with the digital divide by ‘connecting the unconnected’. ASEAN member countries have invested seriously to improve their telecommunication sectors and public infrastructure, according to guidelines under the e-ASEAN initiative. Even though levels of ICT competency within member countries still differ considerably, after a decade of e-ASEAN development there are signs that the regional digital divide is indeed narrowing. In general, Southeast Asian today has a fairly high level of digital mobility with partial accessibility to the internet. According to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), Malaysia was the first country in the region to introduce a cellular network. By the end of 2007, there were 23 million cellular subscribers with a penetration rate of 85.1 per 100 inhabitants. In a

single decade the internet subscription rate has quadrupled, jumping from 3.7 million in 2000 to 16.9 million in 2010. Malaysia internet dial-up subscriptions also increased to 14.3 per 100 inhabitants in 2007 compared to 13.9 per 100 inhabitants in 2006 while broadband subscriptions in 2007 was five per 100 inhabitants. Thailand started its telecommunications and technology development as the same time as Malaysia but political instability slowed investment and hampered implementation. But, by 2007, Thailand mobile phone penetration rate had increased to 78.86 per 100 inhabitants - the highest in the region. Internet penetration was 20.85 per 100 inhabitants and broadband subscription was 2.59 per 100 inhabitants. In 2007, the Philippines had 58.88 per 100 inhabitants for mobile phones subscribers and 4.48 per 100 inhabitants of fixed telephone lines. The combined fixed-line and mobile cellular telephone density therefore rose to about 63 telephones per 100 persons, and 2.5 million (or 2.84 subscribers per 100 inhabitants) of internet subscribers in the same year. Politicians and political parties across the region are increasingly developing digital content and engaging in online communities. All of them have online public relations departments to announce party policy, offer opinions on certain issues, obtain feedback, and track results. Many politicians have set up their own blog sites, and high-profile figures make daily use of their Twitter and Facebook accounts to rouse support, attack their opponents, comment on current affairs and publicize their political messages. In a region where for the most part, the media are tightly controlled and monitored, ICTs present politicians with a dilemma. With their control over information challenged by the prospect of unprecedented, un-moderated and free debate, to survive they must also recognize and embrace its power to reach the

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people. With political dissent still barely tolerated in many Southeast Asian countries, ICTs present similar challenges to authority in the broader cultural and social milieu. Governments have reacted with sometimes sweeping and draconian regulatory measures that potentially might be used to target anything deemed ‘undesirable’. When denied legitimate avenues for comment, complaint and criticism, human ingenuity will always find alternative ways to discuss and air their views, in this case in cyberspace. For example, the Malaysian ruling party’s loss of its twothirds parliamentary majority in the March 2008 general elections was credited largely to increased access to information from digital sources. Because the opposition was denied balanced coverage in mainstream media, it relied on alternative media such as the Internet, blogs, SMS, mailing lists, Listservs, and YouTube to communicate its campaign messages to the public. With few exceptions, Southeast Asian nations have a diversity of alternatives to traditional media, ranging from conventional dial-up, broadband, local cable network televisions, community radios and short messaging services (SMS). Yahoo estimates that up to 16 percent of the Philippine population browse the Web and use the Internet in other ways. ITU estimates that by the end of 2010, the Philippines will have 29.7 million internet users. Such statistics offer a pointer to a significantly increased ‘migration’ of ordinary people who have shifted to digital platforms for communications for both work and play.

Trend 1: Digital Divide 2.0! Digital literacy has increased dramatically in Southeast Asian urban centers, and of course has been central to the vibrant growth in e-businesses, internet-related jobs, digital media, cyber-communities, and certainly digital politics across the region. And yet the digital divide remains, with rural areas poorly served by private sector internet service providers (ISPs). The middle classes are increasingly familiar with ICTs at work, and a new generation has grown up with the Net as an essential city-lifestyle survival tool. Rural populations desperately need improved

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coverage and lower access costs in order to stimulate diffusion of digital literacy from urban first adopters to the wider population. In Thailand the digital divide is alive and well, thanks to a telecommunication infrastructure that could hardly be described as among the best in the region. As rural areas are poorly served by internet service providers, local cable network TV and community radio are the major information portals. There are also continuing difficulties, discontinuities, and delays in upgrading physical infrastructure and regulatory development. At present, 3G or WIMAX services— which would at a stroke result in almost universal geographical coverage and Net accessibility—have yet to be approved. Nevertheless, internet and mobile subscriptions are increasing rapidly due to falling costs and the novelty of enjoying new alternative ways to connect with people.

Trend 2: Censorship as Motive for Political Cyber-Wars Governments in the region usually justify censorship as necessary on grounds of ‘cultural appropriateness’ or national security, and argue that citizens must be ready to accept some sacrifice of personal privacy in the interests of individual as well as national security. Given the phobias of governments over such an uncontrolled and potent medium, we can expect a greater level of regulatory control and surveillance in coming years. Moreover, ASEAN governments will likely seek co-operation among ASEAN members in regard to enforcement of restrictions / censorship not only of political content, but also on filtering other illegal or ‘socially undesirable’ content such as pornography, gambling, fake drugs and so on. Net filtering is indeed a daunting task, but China has already demonstrated its feasibility, and technological advances will make this a realistic proposition elsewhere. For example, the Vietnamese government plans to use the Chinese internet filtering system, which is known as ‘The Great Firewall’ to block and take down the web sites. The Indonesian government,

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which enacted the Anti-Pornography Law in 2008 is under pressure from hard-line puritanical Indonesians to make pornographic websites inaccessible in Indonesia. Given the tight control over traditional media by most Southeast Asian governments, self-censorship is commonplace. In their attempts to gain advantage in the information war, governments are now focusing on digital censorship, and increasingly attempt to ban or block websites of their critics to protect the governing regime. In Thailand, political cyber-wars have become a reality since the military coup in 2006, and the trend shows every sign of intensifying over the next decade. The post-coup government ramped up its internet censorship measures, particularly against the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD), established as a political movement to oppose the coup. Since then censorship has continued to intensify; many websites and other media sympathetic to the UDD have been shut down under Thailand’s emergency, computer-crime, and strict lèse majesté laws. A total of 17,775 sites have been blocked, including pornographic as well as political sites. The reason behind such a grand scale cyber-operation was that the UDD had established a complex network of ‘cyber-demonstrations’ spanning web forums, email list or listservs, chat rooms, community radio and satellite TV channels. Technological advances allowed live internet streaming broadcasts of onsite political protests on laptops connected to the internet via mobile phone, and social networking sites, community radio, and SMS were extensively used to mobilize UDD’s supporters and allies. Then, those live streaming files were archived and uploaded to file sharing sites such as youtube.com and so on. Attempts to block and ban these sites were simply answered by shifting to peer to peer (P2P) networks to disseminate these files.

Cyber War

Source: http://www.chinahearsay.com/cia-chief-it-takes-two-conduct-cyberwar/

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Trend 3: Government censorship: A Hacker’s New Toy To be effective, such campaigns require a high level of technological expertise- which today is readily available in the wake of heavy job losses in the IT sector resulting from the global economic crisis. As a result, disaffected groups of hackers have gathered to mount cyber-attacks on online businesses and to sabotage security networks. These underground anti-establishment networks have expanded considerably in numbers, knowledge, skill, and are acknowledged for their ability to stay one jump ahead of their targets. Significantly, their connections with political groups in the region have also strengthened considerably. Recent incidents in the Philippines support this observation. The websites of the Philippine Information Agency, Philippine National Police, Bulacan Provincial government, and Hagonoy town were hacked when angry residents demonstrated digitally against the botched handling of the Manila hostage crisis on 23 August 2010, which left 8 hostages dead. In addition, President Benigno Aquino’s personal Facebook account, which is linked to his official website, has been flooded by hate messages over the incident so that he continues to have to censor his Facebook page. Many Southeast Asians have acquired digital literacy skills through a decade of learning and daily exposure to the internet and smartphones. For such groups, acquiring and spreading messages and information are second nature, and the internet is now the dominant medium for exchanging news and opinions, arranging meetings and sharing files such as photos, video and audio clips. The Net has finally given ordinary citizens a louder voice. No matter how far governments are willing to go to silence opposition, the genie is out of the bottle, and governments must face an upsurge in grassroots democracy which increasingly embraces citizens’ real views. Hopefully this will result in greater accountability and transparency in government, and increased congruence between the interests of citizens and the State.

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References Growth Rate of Mobile Phone Usage in Malaysia, Koh Yun Sing and Ow Siew Hock, http://eprints.um.edu.my/790/1/115118_%287-29%29.pdf ‘.my’ Malaysia, Musa Abu Hassan and Siti Zobidah Omar, Digital Review of Asia Pacific 2009–2010, http://www.digitalreview.org/uploads/files/pdf/2009-2010/chap-29_malaysia.pdf Malaysia Internet Usage Stats and Marketing Report, as of June 2009, http://www.internetworldstats.com/asia/my.htm Digital Review of Asia Pacific 2009–2010 ‘.th’ Thailand, http:// www.digital-review.org/uploads/files/pdf/2009-2010/chap40_thailand.pdf Digital Review of Asia Pacific 2009–2010 ‘.ph’ Philippines, http://www.digital-review.org/uploads/files/pdf/2009-2010/ chap-36_philippines.pdf Vietnam steps up China-style Internet control, Ian Timberlake (AFP), Jun 30, 2010, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/ article/ALeqM5hA8pq6_UjvyWk1e7AQ-8jexjIXTA Tifatul’s War on Porn Enlists 10 New Soldiers, Ismira Lutfia, August 31, 2010, http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/ tifatuls-war-on-porn-enlists-10-new-soldiers/393878

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INTERVIEW with Kan YuEnyong,

Founder of Siam Intelligence Unit (SIU) What are the origins of Digital Politics in this region?

The use of digital media for political debate in this region has flourished in recent years. In Thailand, for example, the popular Pantip.com website has a web board “Ratchadamnoen Room” dedicated to political issues. It began as an online forum for a small group of people from all walks of life to discuss politics. The forum was not deliberately used as part of any political movement, and for a while, had no significant impact beyond the digital world. However, things changed as the number of online participants increased, and the forum began to be quoted more frequently in the mainstream political

About Mr. Kan Yuenyong Mr. Kan Yuenyong is founder and Director of Siam Intelligence Unit (http://www.siamintelligence.com), an alternative think tank and research service on various social, environment, business and economic issues. He was also a co-developer of the Thailand Political Base website (http://www.politicalbase. in.th), funded by The Friedrich Naumann Foundation (FNF) and Thai RuralNet (http://www.trnlab.org). Mr Kan was selected by The Friedrich Naumann Foundation to represent Thailand in seminars in Strategic Planning 2009 and New Public Management 2009, held at the International Academy for Leadership, Germany. Formerly at Internet Thailand Public Company Limited, he currently serves as a committee member for the Thai Netizen Network (http://www.thainetizen.org).

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media. Then the movement gained massive momentum as it threw its support behind efforts to expel the former Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra. This and similar online fora saw a huge influx of users. Some news companies were able to ride this digital bandwagon early and successfully- a notable example being Thailand’s Manager Group, which transformed itself from a traditional newspaper publisher to a leading online news network. The key factors behind its success are the speedy and real-time update of news and the controversial and often sensational content that draws the reader’s attention. At the regional level, the leader in digital politics is Malaysiakini. Because of Malaysia’s strict censorship over the broadcast and print media, people saw online media as a freer and more promisingly alternative. Malaysiakini is a product of such a shift, and has grown into what is arguably the best-known online news website in Southeast Asia. Since the beginning, Malaysiakini presented itself as an alternative source of news and truth, often covering controversial issues and viewpoints considered taboo by mainstream media. Its readership continues to increase, even after the website started charging membership fees to view its content. Following in Malaysiakini’s footsteps, similar websites focusing on political and social issues have sprung up in other countries in Southeast Asia, including Prachatai in Thailand.

What do you see as the most important emerging trends in digital politics in this region? Across Southeast Asia, information flow is becoming more dynamic, and citizens’ roles are changing fast. Today we are seeing a much higher level of two-way communication between media and their audiences. Readers, viewers and listeners are no longer content to sit back and passively consume – they now also want to generate and exchange their own information. The modus operandi of political exchange and mobilization is shifting from online web boards, to forwarded emails, to social-network sites. Smartphones are increasingly used not just for clunky SMS messaging, but also to chat real-time as in the case of the Blackberry, and to communicate via Facebook and Twitter to instantaneously exchange political news and views. People can express their ideas more honestly, sometimes anonymously. It has also become easier to mobilize people connected virtually than through prohibitively expensive traditional means

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such as TV campaigns, roadshows and home visits. Digital media are playing an increasingly strong and effective role in monitoring politicians and public officials. Still largely free from the chains of censorship, they are becoming an essential component of a governance system. Another interesting trend is that the realm of digital politics of course transcends physical borders. An example is a web board in which most users are Cambodian. But on the hot topic of the CambodiaThailand conflict over the Temple of Preah Vihear, Thai participants also participate in the debate and express their opinions in English.

What is the flipside of these trends? Online political participation and mobilization so far seems in general to be limited to the middle and upper classes in big cities. Internet connectivity is still expensive in most countries in this region, so only the relatively affluent are able to participate in this trend. The problems of social and urban-rural inequity are quite evident when it comes to digital politics. As several countries in this region continue to tackle issues of inequality and social justice, the limited circle and disproportionate demographic of digital politics may polarize these societies even further. I see an important role for the State in promoting digital connectivity to reduce the digital divide, to empower more people to participate directly in political activities in the digital space. We also see across the region the state’s increasing control over the digital space, with more and more legislation passed to allow internet censorship, usually citing national security and social order as grounds for censorship. Cyber-freedom advocates consider such censorship as unnecessary and counterproductive. I personally support freedom of expression as long as it does not violate other people’s rights. However, some societies may need more time to develop a culture that allows people to freely debate taboo topics. Finally, the cultural and ethical norms that serve to moderate our behaviour in the real world are often forgotten in the freewheeling online world, and so we also need to develop a greater sense of responsibility- or ‘cyber-ethics’ among internet users.

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TREND TOOLS Bibliometrics

A Tool for Foresight By Dr. Alisa Kongthon, National Electronics and Computer Technology Center (NECTEC)

The use of bibliometrics —the number of research papers published and how often they are cited— uses statistics and quantitative analysis to describe patterns of publication within any given field. Bibliometrics measures the output of science by generating quantitative data that can be used to evaluate the influence of emerging technologies or issues, and is a versatile tool which can contribute to foresight exercises such as scenario planning. Bibliometric studies are grounded in three important laws: Lotka’s law of scientific productivity; Bradford’s law of scatter, and Zipf’s law of word occurrence. These laws provide the basis for the three main indicators used in bibliometric studies: •

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Publication count: total number of scientific publications or patents published by researchers in a specified field. Publication or patent counts are most useful for providing an estimate of research interest, and total research output; Citations and impact factor: Number of citations is a useful proxy for the scientific and even the social impact of research. The more significant the work, the more it is cited; Co-citation and co-word analysis: is used to measure linkages among publications, including patents. Co-citation and co-word indicators can be combined with publication and citation counts to build multifaceted representations of research fields, the linkages among them, and the actors who are shaping them. Co-citation analysis can help us monitor how different sub-domains of science change and evolve over time, whilst

Graph layout of the MIT social web. Analyzed by bibliometrics method Source: http://www10.org/program/society/yawyl/ YouAreWhatYouLink.htm

co-word analysis uses the co-occurrence of keywords in publications on a given subject to establish relationships among documents. Examples of bibliometric studies in Southeast Asia include technology trends and forecasts of RFID by a historical review and bibliometric analysis from 1991 to 2005 conducted by the National Electronic and Computer Technology Center (NECTEC), Thailand, and Mapping of Science and Technology Knowledge Productivity in Malaysia since 2003, by the Malaysian Agency for Science and Technology Information (MASTIC), Bibliometrics has come of age in the age of the internet, with its wealth of content, and especially in the emergence of powerful search tools. The emerging field of webmetrics, or cybermetrics, applies bibliometric techniques to the worldwide web, mapping and ranking sites according to the intensity of their hyperlinks to other sites. Further reading: Asgari, B., and Wong, C. H. (2007) Depicting the Technology and Economic Development of Modern Malaysia, Asian Journal of Technology Innovation Volume 15, Issue 1 2007. Daim, T. U., Ruedaa, G., Martina, H., and Gerdsria, P. (2006) Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 73, Issue 8, October 2006, pp. 981-1012 MASTIC (2003), “Science and Technology Knowledge Productivity in Malaysia”, Bibliometric Study 2003, Putrajaya: Malaysian Science and Technology Information Center. http://etd.gatech.edu/

Dr. Pun-Arj Chairatana Prof. Ubonrat Siriyuvasak Ms. Poomjit Sirawongprasert Dr. Alisa Kongthon Writers / Information Specialist Worapol Paiboonbudsrakum Project co-ordinator William Wyn Ellis Chief Editor Pinchathana Atthiwatthana Graphic Designer Regional Horizon / Environment Scanning (HS/ES) and trend monitoring for issues relevant to people, life, and regional transformation across the Southeast Asian region.

Trendnovation Southeast Newsletter is published by

Noviscape Consulting Group (NCG) www.noviscape.com