The Waterleader

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Contents 3

Editors' note

4

Water security in disasters: the role of participatory governance

6

The power of community: Parisians save their city in the 1910 flood

8

Community response and redevelopment in flood zones: a case against traditional housing

9

Effective aid management in the aftermath of water crisis: some lessons from post-tsunami Aceh

10 The 2011 Bangkok floods: what happened and lessons learned 12 Underwaters in the Bay of Bengal 30 Recent floods events and potential mitigation policies for the Asia Pacific region 32 Harnessing the power of the “iCrowd” 34 Adaptive management in river systems 37 Glacial melting and flooding: causes, risks and impacts 39 Flood mitigation in Mumbai: rains, drains and delays 41 Developing sustainable forests in flood-prone riparian zones 42 Health implications of water-related natural disasters 44 Engineering mosquito control: lessons from tsunamis, dams and malaria 45 Rethinking diagnostics for rapid water quality assessments 46 “Scuba Rice”: ensuring food security during a flood 48 Flood risk and house price inertia: a source of comfort or concern? Some lessons from Pompeii 50 Respecting rivers 52 Children’s psychological reactions to flooding

Editors Pragnya Alekal, pragnya@alum.mit.edu Asanga Gunawan, bdgasan@nus.edu.sg Copy Editors Claire Leow, claireleow@nus.edu.sg Melanie Chua, melaniechua@nus.edu.sg Designer Chris Koh,

chris.k@nus.edu.sg

Interns Hariharan Viswanathan Yan Xu Disclaimer The opinions expressed as well as the references provided within the think pieces are the sole responsibility of the authors. The WaterLeader neither endorses nor opposes any cause, politics, etc outlined by the authors in their think pieces.

Questions or other feedback should be shared directly with the corresponding authors; email addresses are included for each of the authors following their respective think pieces.

Editors’ note

by Pragnya Alekal and Asanga Gunawansa

T

he year 2011 was marked by a deluge of flooding events that devastated economies around the world. In Asia, Japan began the year with one of the worst tsunami disasters in its history. As the year progressed, the Philippines, China, Korea, Pakistan, India, and most of South East Asia experienced torrential downpours and overwhelming floods. The other continents didn’t fare that much better. Europe, North America, Australia, Southern Africa, and Latin America were all hit, some badly. In all, by the end of 2011, several thousands of lives were lost, millions more were impacted, and damages exacted in the billions.

What is frightening is that disasters like these might soon become the norm. With rising global temperatures and resulting climate change, experts predict that flooding disasters would only continue to increase in magnitude, variety, and frequency. In most countries, especially developing ones, lack of appropriate and adequate environmental planning enhances the vulnerability caused by disasters such as flooding.

So, what really are the different causes of flooding? How can we prepare better and build resilience? What lessons have we learnt from past events that can help us mitigate flood disasters? What policy recommendations could be made?

The Institute of Water Policy’s (IWP) fourth issue of The WaterLeader aims to answer these questions. Themed Floods: Causes, Effects and Mitigation, this issue features short, insightful and engaging pieces from a multi-faceted group of highly-regarded academics and industry experts from around the world, including child psychologists, historians, medical doctors, engineers, ecologists and entrepreneurs. Many of them have spent years studying floods and their interactions with the surrounding environment The think pieces included in this issue of The WaterLeader largely fall into three categories. The first category of articles identifies the actions that we must take to manage and mitigate flood disasters better. Threats are identified, and the importance of good governance highlighted. Several contributors showcase the importance of community action to deal with flooding, especially when institutional failures or government inactions would cause severe inconveniences to the victims.

The second category of articles focuses on the consequences of flooding and the necessary mitigation measures that should be taken by the stakeholders. In addition, a poignant photo-essay by award-winning Bangladeshi photojournalist, Munem Wasif, showcases how saltwater intrusion caused by rising sea levels and saltwater flooding during the monsoons affects every aspect of life for a community in Bangladesh.

The final category of articles mainly focuses on suggestions for avoidance or better management of floods. Technical tools are presented, and issues such as the importance of food security, water quality, and the need for better river management are dealt with.

A key message coming out of this issue of The WaterLeader is the vital role the local community can play in disaster mitigation. Research from vastly different perspectives and countries showcase the link between the strength of the community and resilience in a flooding disaster. While financial aid, technology, and public health are absolutely necessary for mitigation, they are merely tools that can only be mobilised in the hands of good governance and a strong community.

Pragnya Alekal is the outgoing business development manager of IWP. Asanga Gunawansa is an International Research Associate with IWP and a practicing Attorney-at-Law in Sri Lanka. He can be reached at bdgasan@nus.edu.sg · Issue 04/2012 · 3

Water security in disasters: the role of participatory governance

by Lauren R. Bateman, Elizabeth A. Newnham and Jennifer Leaning

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ncreasingly dense settlement1 in areas vulnerable to water-related disasters has necessitated a broadening of the dialogue around the role of water security in emergency settings. The debate has expanded from concerns over access to a sufficient quantity of safe water to water security defined by water availability, human vulnerability, human needs, and sustainability.2 This expansive view focuses on human interventions in water systems,3 and provides a critical framework for both preparation and disaster response. In order to ensure robust water security in locations at risk for disasters, governments, civil-society organisations and the local population must work together to identify solutions.

Issues of governance, training, and service delivery are central to water security in natural disasters. These can be slow in onset with consequences expanding over weeks or months, as with the monsoon floods in the IndoGangetic plain extending across north-central India. In contrast, the sudden onset of the 2010 Indus River flood in Pakistan forced approximately 20 million people to abandon their homes and livelihoods.4

Thus, in advance of a disaster, it is essential that governments and communities assess risks, prepare to reduce the scope of potential disasters, and make plans to launch and sustain the response that will be necessary when such a disaster strikes. These efforts in risk assessment, mitigation, preparedness planning, and response are complex and demanding. They require a commitment of human and financial resources that can only be accomplished if the at-risk communities and the political leaders have jointly agreed to this investment of time, skill, and funding. Disasters are more likely to affect low-resources areas where these elements are less likely to be readily available or easily implemented, and thus strong partnerships are required to enable effective response.

Secure water A key priority of water security is to ensure that those affected by water crises have access to adequate amounts of safe water. Providing this vital support presents a daunting logistical challenge in the wake of severe water

1.

UN World Population Prospects: 2009 Revision. New York: United Nations.

2.

Cook, C., Bakker, K. (2011). Water Security: Debating An Emerging Paradigm. Global Environmental Change, 22(1), 94-102.

3.

UNESCO-IHE, Institute for Water Education. Research Themes: Water Security. http://www.unesco-ihe.org/Research/Research-Themes/Water-security. Accessed March 18, 2012.

4.

EM-DAT: the OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. Université catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium. Available at: www.emdat.be

5.

United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. (2012). Towards a Post-2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. Available at: http://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/publications/25129

6.

The Sphere Project. (2011). Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Humanitarian Response. UK: Practical Action Publishing.

7.

Chan, Emily YY. (2008). The Untold Stories of the Sichuan Earthquake. The Lancet, 372 (9636), 359-362.

8.

Guha-Sapir, D., Jakubicka, T., Vos, F., Phalkey, R., Marx, M. (2010). Health Impacts of Floods in Europe – data gaps and information needs from a spatial perspective. A Micro Disreport. Heidelberg: Institut für Public Health.

9.

Begum, Mahbuba. (1995). Coping with floods: The experience of rural women in Bangladesh, a thesis. Massey University, 213.

10. Alam E, Collins E. Cyclone disaster vulnerability and response experiences in coastal Bangladesh. Retrieved from: http://www.dfid.gov.uk/r4d/PDF/Outputs/ESRC_DFID/60433-Collins-RJ1-AC2-RJ2.pdf 11. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. (2012). Towards a Post-2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. Available at: http://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/publications/25129

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Image: MUNIR UZ ZAMAN/AFP/Getty Images

Flood-affected Bangladeshi villagers transport pots of water on rafts in Koikhali on the outskirts of Satkhira 400 km from Dhaka in 2009.

crises because supply chains and transportation routes are often disrupted and normal water supplies may be contaminated or inaccessible. Response agencies require advance training and extensive participatory planning for supply chain continuity and transportation arrangements. Further, key leadership at the community level must be consulted and included in the contingency planning.

These efforts must be sufficient to meet the technical and social complexity of this delivery challenge. The Sphere Standards5 have established minimum requirements for water quantity and water quality in disasters.

Every person must have access to at least 15 liters of water per day for drinking, cooking, and personal hygiene and this supply must meet measures of water quality that ensure an absence of faecal coliforms, a chlorine residual of 0.5 mg/l, and turbidity less than 5 NTU.6 Another important aspect of water security in disasters is obtaining knowledge of local conditions and vulnerabilities in order to strengthen community response. A commitment to evaluation and preparation among agencies is crucial to improved response. Recent evidence suggests that attention must be paid to particularly vulnerable groups, including the elderly, disabled, women and children.7 The general causes of mortality and morbidity associated with floods and storms are often drowning or blunt trauma from debris,8 but local cultural and social factors may also contribute to the casualties. Higher levels of mortality among women in the 1991 Bangladesh cyclone were caused by issues of training, status, and dress: women were less likely to be able to swim; they bore greater responsibility to care for small children; and their saris and long hair became easily trapped, hindering efforts to stay free of debris and remain afloat.9 Identifying these risk factors enabled the Bangladeshi government and

community to enact social changes that reduced this differential mortality in subsequent cyclones.10 Humanitarian responses to events of this magnitude require extensive planning, with active participation from at-risk populations to identify key issues and make preparations for protecting large populations from immediate harm, supporting their rapid evacuation from affected areas, and managing temporary settlements for the time required for adequate recovery and return to their home environment.

Government agencies responsible for population salvage, rescue, and support require sufficient financial resources and training for extensive and long-lasting service delivery. It is crucial that the political leaders of the government establish clear, consistent, and powerful direction to support the designation of responsibility and capacity building through every administrative layer.1 With ongoing participation of community and local government leadership in the nation’s disaster planning and response strategy, significant improvements in access, quality and security of water will be enabled for future complex humanitarian emergencies.

Lauren Bateman, MPH, is a Project Manager at the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative at the Harvard School of Public Health. Elizabeth Newnham, MPsych, PhD, is a Post-Doctoral Fellow at the FXB Center for Health and Human Rights at the Harvard School of Public Health.

Jennifer Leaning, MD, SMH, is Director of the FXB Center for Health and Human Rights and Professor of the Practice of Health and Human Rights at the Harvard School of Public Health. They can be reached at lbateman@hsph.harvard.edu, enewnham@hsph.harvard.edu and jleaning@hsph.harvard.edu respectively. · Issue 04/2012 · 5

Collapse of the vault of a sewer.

The power of community: Parisians save their city in the 1910 flood

by Jeffrey H. Jackson

The Great Flood of Paris In January 1910, the river Seine climbed six meters above normal, flooding large sections of Paris. The disaster forced 14,000 people to flee their homes and 55,000 more to be admitted to the hospital; officials estimated damages at approximately 400 million francs (roughly US$2 billion today). This, the worst natural disaster in the city’s modern history, resulted from unusual weather conditions combined with a failure of the urban infrastructure and 6 · Issue 04/2012 ·

flood control engineering. However, residents did not panic nor attack the government but pulled together to rescue one another and rebuild. As I demonstrate in my book Paris Under Water,2 Paris was not saved by planners or politicians, but by ordinary people.

High rainfall during the summer of 1909 saturated the soil in northern France. Shortly after 1910 began, a low pressure system brought weeks of additional precipitation. Warm temperatures melted snow, swelling the

“The 1910 flood reinforced what decades of disaster studies scholarship has shown: in the immediate aftermath of a natural disaster, most people come together and cooperate rather than panic.”

Seine’s tributaries. As the engorged river filled with debris entered Paris, it turned yellow and frothy. Overflowing sewers pushed into basements as the flood rose from below the capital. Most officials had believed high water of this magnitude was impossible because Paris was too “modern” for a disastrous flood. Parisians laughed at technicians shoring up the quay walls as a precaution. The city, including its sewers and water system, had been renovated in the 1860s. Ironically, the engineering which had made the city cleaner and more efficient also exacerbated the flood. For instance, the tunnels of the new Métro subway transport system carried water into neighbourhoods where it could not have gone on its own. A false belief that Parisians could control nature left the city vulnerable. Engineers had channeled the Seine for centuries, but the biggest failure in 1910 was one of imagination.

Disaster Studies scholar Lee Clarke calls this “probabilistic thinking” at the expense of “possibilistic thinking” in his book Worst Cases.1 By only considering what is “probable,” planners discount the worst case by failing to think beyond calculating risk. Experts’ calls to raise the height of the quay walls through the center of Paris were never heeded because of the low probability of a flood overtaking the managed urban space—and because no one wanted to ruin the beautiful views.

them. The prime minister, president, and Paris police chief went into the streets meeting victims and making the work of good government evident.

When the president arrived at one shelter, he tasted the soup as an act of solidarity. Leaders inspecting the damage were photographed by the daily newspapers, and their visibility soothed the city’s nerves. Most believed that the government had done its job.

The survival efforts of ordinary Parisians, supported by effective leadership, succeeded because Paris was a community of networks and partnerships. Paris began to recover as soon as disaster struck because social ties remained strong enough to promote local cooperation. When the unthinkable happened, the resilience of the people made the difference, not engineering or command-and-control leadership. In times of disaster, victims are the first responders and save the majority of lives, not the military, police, or firefighters. In 1910, leaders fostered ties of human community by showing that they shared the city’s pain.

The story of Paris is particularly powerful in contrast with the famous flood of the Mississippi River in the U.S. in 1927 which greatly exacerbated racial divisions. At gunpoint, local leaders forced black sharecroppers to reinforce the levees while white residents evacuated. Relief agencies distributed supplies unequally by giving them to whites before blacks.

Maintaining social and racial barriers guided the local efforts in 1927, and the Mississippi Delta continues to pay the price.

The power of community response and other lessons learned Rather than focusing solely on how to engineer against flooding, today’s Although the city’s engineering failed, its people rose to the challenge.

Despite being unable to imagine the worst case, ordinary Parisians rescued leaders should also consider strengthening community ties to promote local the city more effectively than their planners. The 1910 flood reinforced pro-social responses when planning for the worst cases. In 1910, when what decades of disaster studies scholarship has shown: in the immediate urban engineering failed to save Paris, ordinary people who held together aftermath of a natural disaster, more people come together and cooperate with a tremendous sense of purpose did. Similar situations continue to rather than panic. In 1910, Parisians rowed boats and built wooden walk- showcase themselves during most disasters, most recently seen in 2011 ways so that people could cross flooded areas. They reached out to neigh- after the tsunami in Japan, and in Bangkok during one of the worst floods bours and friends, carrying victims to safety on their backs or shoulders. the city had witnessed.

Despite deep political, religious, and social divisions, most Parisians rallied together through vigorous fundraising efforts and often heroic acts of Dr. Jeffrey H. Jackson is a cultural historian and Associate Professor of rescue. Even the Catholic Church and the secular government cooperated. History at Rhodes College in Tennessee, USA. He can be reached at The government supported grassroots efforts, but did not try to dominate jacksonj@rhodes.edu

1.

Clarke, Lee. (2006). Worst Cases: Terror and Catastrophe in the Popular Imagination. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.

2.

Jackson, Jeffrey H. (2010). Paris Under Water: How the City of Light Survived the Great Flood of 1910. New York: Palgrave MacMillan.

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Community response and redevelopment in flood zones: a case against traditional housing

by Peter Haas

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n the past decade, we have seen unprecedented economic losses from The existent Works Progress Administration (WPA) provided a logisflooding. Our responses to housing stock damage after flooding disasters tical framework for the recovery. Thousands of men were immediately is often the marker by which recovery is judged. One controversial practice employed in the clean-up and reconstruction work. Men were engaged in housing rehabilitation is the practice of moving displaced persons into and paid to work in the reconstruction almost immediately. Women were newly constructed interim housing and T-shelters rather than moving them employed for sewing new replacement clothing for families affected by the directly into permanent housing stock. disaster. Three months after the flood downtown, Springfield was largely After Hurricane Katrina hit the U.S. Gulf states in 2005, 600,000 peo- open for business, and with a job stimulus programme leveraging materiple went into interim housing, many for several years. Transitional housing als and resources from the local economy, business was doing better three is generally expensive, a slow process and often used for well beyond its months after the flood than it was before. Wages earned in the reconstrucintended lifespan, creating shanty-town types of conditions for displaced tion of community resources were pumped into the reconstruction of pripopulations. vate residences.

It is instructive to compare this with the Flood of 1936, which affected This programme enabled people to get back quickly to their homes, cities and towns from Vermont to Connecticut in the north-eastern part of directly employing the victims of the tragedy almost immediately after the the United States, and the disaster response in Springfield, Massachusetts. disaster and engaging them in the process of rebuilding and reconstruction.

An unusually cold and snowy winter followed by a warm and rainy early If we look at responses to modern floods, the delays are significant. Focus spring led to the creation of car-sized ice blocks which swept down the often revolves around the creation of transitional housing stock for disConnecticut River, the longest and largest river in New England. placed populations, instead of employing people to rebuild their own exist“Near Holyoke, where the river narrows under Mt. Tom, an ice dam 15 ing housing stock. If there is anything to be learned from the example of the feet [4.57m] high and over a mile [1.6km] deep formed. When it broke up, 1936 Springfield Floods, it is this: reconstruction in place is possible and the roar of the water could be heard for miles. At Holyoke and Hadley, des- it can show powerful and rapid results. Given the modern focus on transiperate residents tried, and failed, to create a sandbag dike to hold the water tional housing, this old fashioned view, born out of pragmatism, may hold rising behind the Holyoke Dam. The river spilled over and around the dam, a path for the future of disaster response. By keeping people productive rushed through the village of South Hadley Falls, damaging or destroy- and focused, they can restart their lives sooner when they are living in pering nearly every building in the center of town. A dangerous barrage of manent housing stock and have jobs. The faster a programme can achieve debris—outhouses, chicken-houses, trees, barns, and livestock—was sent those two aims, the faster a true recovery will take place. barrelling down.”1 Regardless of whether the disaster is a flood, a wildfire or an earthquake, Most of the damage from the disaster was felt in Springfield, the sec- our modern relocation and interim shelter construction programmes disemond largest city in Massachusetts. Waters rose up to 63 feet (19.2m) above power the very populations which would be most motivated to engage in the existing level, flooding over 18 miles (29 km) of the city. More than reconstruction. The money spent on shelters would be better put to use back20,000 people were evacuated and police had shoot-on-sight orders to deal ing defaults on a reconstruction loan fund and providing homeowner training with looting. Immediately, a volunteer effort organised hundreds of row- on reconstruction practices. Past experience demonstrates that we can find a boats and motor boats to rescue people stranded on roofs of buildings. The more economical way forward in dealing with ever present disasters. flood caused US$200 million in damage in 1936 (US$3.3 billion today).

Without significant relocation options, there was a shelter-in-place ethic to Peter Haas is the co-founder of the Appropriate Infrastructure the reconstruction process in Springfield. People first sought shelter in some Development Group (AIDG), an organisation dedicated to bringing community buildings, but soon moved to tents on private property. They infrastructure to economically challenged areas particularly in Latin began demolishing homes and worked on reconstruction within days, not America. Mr Haas was heavily involved in the 2010 earthquake weeks, after flood waters had receded. As a result, there was no time for the rehabilitation in Haiti and has become a staunch advocate for smarter growth of toxic mould and conditions that produced a significant health and rehabilitative construction and policy. He can be reached at risks for homeowners in New Orleans in 2005. phaas@aidg.org

1.

Mass Humanities. “Flood Devastates Springfield.” Accessed April 17, 2012. http://massmoments.org/moment.cfm?mid=87

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Effective aid management in the aftermath of water crisis: some lessons from post-tsunami Aceh

by Tiago Freire

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t is unlikely that large-scale international assistance programmes to countries hit by major floods or tsunamis will help mitigate the risk of future damage from natural disasters. For instance, the international community and several private individuals spent billions of dollars in the recovery of coastal villages after the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami that hit Aceh, Indonesia the hardest. The tsunami killed hundreds of thousands of people and left an equal number of people homeless, with no means of subsistence. By 2007, most of the reconstruction effort had been completed, when unusually high tides invaded villages, destroying homes and sending thousands of people back into shelters.

The real problem derived from how aid was distributed in villages. The issue here was not corruption within the Indonesian Government; most of the reconstruction effort was left to the non-governmental organisations (NGOs). The problem lay with the NGOs’ dependence on donations in order to continue operating in Aceh. This implied that several NGOs focused on projects with large media coverage in order to attract more donations, rather than essential public infrastructure, such as embankments or re-planting mangroves to reduce the risk of flooding. During my fieldwork in Aceh, in 2007, I noticed that most NGOs focused on rebuilding houses without a comprehensive plan to address the risks of flooding in these coastal areas.

Furthermore, the relative few mangrove replanting projects were usually included other (sometimes contradictory) objectives. For instance, in one village we visited, the livestock purchased by an NGO to improve agricultural capacity ate the mangroves that had been replanted.

Another problem was the behavior of aid recipients. While it is common for villages in Aceh to organise volunteer days to construct essential public infrastructure such as building embankments to prevent flooding, in my fieldwork I observed that many did not. In particular, villages that received more aid would organise fewer volunteer days, in the hope that this work would be funded by aid agencies.

Both these problems can severely reduce the effectiveness of any aid programme. However, in my fieldwork in Aceh, I noted that NGOs which had their own funds (independent of government or third party international organisational donations), and invested their own funds independently, were more effective. With personal responsibility to their stakeholders, these NGOs did better needs assessments and designed more responsible and comprehensive plans to address the issues that were uncovered in these

1.

It is unlikely that largescale international assistance programmes to countries hit by major floods or tsunamis will help mitigate the risk of future damage from natural disasters.

assessments. A good example is the Turkish Red Cross, widely regarded as the best donor by the Acehnese1, which deployed only their own funds for tsunami rehabilitation. Before moving into a village, the Turkish Red Cross would perform comprehensive assessments of the village’s needs, and would make the necessary improvements, including building infrastructure along with the houses, based on that.

In conclusion, efforts to assist other countries in reducing the risk of future flooding need to go beyond financial means. Donors need to be involved in the implementation process. They need to assess the needs of the communities where they act and make comprehensive plans. These responsibilities of donors cannot be delegated.

Dr. Tiago Freire is a Visiting Fellow at the Department of Economics, National University of Singapore (NUS), Singapore. He specialises in labour, urban and development economics. He can be reached at tiago@tiagofreire.com

See for instance: Vebry, M., Manu, C., Berman, L. “Community development approach in Aceh reconstruction, reflecting on lessons learned for Yogyakarta: lesson learned from the field, a practical guideline in modern project management style in post-disaster areas”. Paper presented at the International Seminar on Post-Disaster Reconstruction: Assistance to Local Governments and Communities, Urban and Regional Development Institute, Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 2007, July 10; or Benthall, J. (2008). “Have Islamic aid agencies a privileged relationship in majority Muslim areas? The case of post-tsunami reconstruction in Aceh.”

The Journal of Humanitarian Assistance. Available at: http://sites.tufts.edu/jha/archives/153

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Image: AFP/AFP/Getty Images

An aerial view of submerged ancient temples amid flooding in Ayutthaya province, north of the Thai capital Bangkok, on 28 Oct 2010.

The 2011 Bangkok floods: what happened and lessons learned

by Adri Verwey, Barames Vardhanabhuti and Chris Cotterman

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How Bangkok flooded Almost 600 kilometers upstream of the Thai capital Bangkok, in the Chao Phraya River Basin, the rain came as it always did in the monsoon season of 2011; only this time it was harder than usual. Between July and September 2011, a series of tropical storms battered and flooded the fertile region. The floods, however, remained largely relegated to the area; most downstream areas such as Bangkok were safe during this time. By the end of September, the rains stopped. And everyone thought the floods would dissipate without too much harm and even if the rivers could not handle the outflows, the expectation was

Image: Karn G. Bulsuk

Bangkok was transformed into a walled and sandbagged city during the 2011 floods.

Women filling sandbags.

that the many irrigation and drainage canals, dams, and dykes along the way The Dutch Meteorological Institute computed this to be a 1-in-250-year would keep the flood waters at bay. But nobody could have underestimated rainfall event. While the probability of a comparable event recurring is the forces of nature more. rather low, it is important to note that with increasingly extreme weather Starting in October 2012, a flood volume peaking at 16 billion cubic patterns and rising populations, floods such as these may become more meters (equivalent to 64 million Olympic size swimming pools of water), commonplace. Actions are best taken now while the disasters and lessons several times the normal capacity of the Chao Phraya River, tried to snake gleaned from it are still fresh in people’s minds. The biggest lesson learned its way down to the sea. Contrary to popular belief, the irrigation and is that crisis management needs to start much earlier, and it needs to be drainage canals around Bangkok could not drain the excess waters in time. proactive and coordinated, away from party politics. Good, reliable, and King’s Dyke, built less than 30 years earlier to protect the city from floods, transparent flood forecasting systems need to be available for everyone to was too low and soon overflowed. From the outskirts, flood waters now use; and a well-prepared and staffed crisis center should be supported. reached the inner city.

To a certain extent, Bangkok was very lucky. Had the rain fallen closer to

By November 2012, the flood waters had covered many industrial Bangkok, the damage might have been more catastrophic. The Chao Phraya estates, the old airport Don Muang, and nearly one third of the inner city of River would have had very little time to drain the flood volumes, and the Bangkok. More than 800 lives were lost, clocking damages at about US$45 large reservoirs that play such a crucial role in flood mitigation, would have billion, while millions of people had to evacuate their houses. been overwhelmed even earlier. To prevent a disaster like this from happenPolitically, the floods had not come at the best time. After prolonged polit- ing again, better modeling systems must be employed in advance to provide ical angst, Thai party politics reached a frenzied pitch earlier in the year when balanced insight into Master Plan development. More reservoirs, retention the election on July 3 brought in a government that was still “finding its feet”. basins, dykes and dams may be needed based upon a very good understandTaken by surprise by the disaster, they did the best they could—activating ing of the hydrological and hydraulic processes in play. the Army, and setting up a Flood Relief Operations Center where all waterrelated ministries and agencies (including the authors) worked. However, Adri Verwey is a senior modeling and flooding specialist at Deltares, probably influenced by party politics, the information collected and dissi- based in Delft, The Netherlands. He is part of flood-related task forces pated was erratic and uncoordinated making relief work frustratingly difficult. for the Governments of Thailand, Singapore, Hong Kong and Brazil. Mr. As the government struggled to make sense of the situation, ordinary citi- Verwey can be reached at Adri.Verwey@deltares.nl. Dr. Barames zens sprung into action. The Thai citizens, honed by their culture and tra- Vardhanabhuti is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Civil ditions, gracefully accepted their plight with a smile, and quickly moved Engineering at Kasetsart University, Bangkok. He gave technical towards disaster relief. It was remarkable to see them at work. Rising water assistance to the Flood Relief Operation Center (FROC) during the levels meant sandbags were made and piled up by the millions. Women, Bangkok Floods. He can be reached at fengbmv@ku.ac.th. Chris youth, monks—all contributed. The army stepped in and helped the citi- Cotterman is a Marine Engineer and partner with the Thai office of the zens’ initiatives by evacuating those in danger zones and to distribute food design firm Gragg & Associates. Chris also serves as Director of and bottled water. The effectiveness of these actions can be partially meas- Proactive Technologies International, a firm specialising in disaster ured by the low incidence of disease outbreaks. Ironically, as order was mitigation and recovery technologies and is a Board Member of ANDPI maintained while citizens remained calm, government agencies had room (Association of Natural Disaster Prevention Industries). He can be to move into action. By January 2012, the flood waters dissipated and life reached at office@gragg-thailand.com. All three authors were on went back to normal. site during the 2011 Bangkok Floods. · Issue 04/2012 · 11

Underwaters in the Bay of Bengal In seventeen sub-districts of south-western Bangladesh, there is no fresh water, only a salty, rotten corpse. Shrimp farming, a 1994 government order to close off the entire coast, has choked off the very foundation of coastal agriculture. Then, cyclone Sidr hit on November 15, 2007, the strongest of one of the worst natural disasters for the country. Two years later, cyclone Aila struck. After the twin disasters, the entire southern region is a barren trail of devastation. Hungry and jobless, villagers are flocking to the city.

Photos: Munem Wasif 12 路 Issue 04/2012 路

Captions: Pavel Partha

Translation: Naeem Mohaiemen

Borguna, Bangladesh, 2007 Hatem Ali, 70 years old, becomes completely penniless after the cyclone hits Borguna. All his possessions—20 chickens, 7 goats, 1 boat and his house—have been wrecked in this climatic menace. He is dumbfounded by the magnitude of his loss and shudders at the thought of beginning a new life all over again. · Issue 04/2012 · 13

Satkhira, Bangladesh, 04 June 2009 The local people are building a dam that will see them receive 5 kilogrammes of rice in return.

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Satkhira, Bangladesh, 05 June 2009 A woman carries water over a wrecked bridge. 路 Issue 04/2012 路 17

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Kurigram, Bangladesh, 2007 In Kurigram, the people have adapted to this aspect of climate and continue to exist in waist-deep flood waters, sometimes even inside their homes. 路 Issue 04/2012 路 19

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Satkhira, Bangladesh, 04 June 2009 A little boy carrying water and bread back to his home. 路 Issue 04/2012 路 21

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Sathkhira, Gabura, Bangladesh, 04 June 2009 Aminur Rashid lost his wife and children in the cyclone.

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Sathkhira, Gabura, Bangladesh, 04 June 2009 All means of communication including roads and waterways have been damaged. The high tidal surges are so strong that the region has become inaccessible even to rescuers. 路 Issue 04/2012 路 25

Sathkhira, Datinakhali, Bangladesh, 23 December 2008 Shajhan Siraj and his brothers push boats into the sea through low tide.

These boats are filled with fresh water, which they have collected from different places. It takes them two to three hours to commute between these places daily.

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Sathkhira, Patrakhola, Bangladesh, 21 December 2008 Sharoshoti Munda and Rubala Munda wait for their pitchers to be filled with water from the only filters in the area. They had to stand in a queue for hours like hundreds of others.

28 · Issue 04/2012 ·

路 Issue 04/2012 路 29

Recent floods events and potential mitigation policies for the Asia Pacific region

by Siyue Li and Xi Xi Lu

G

lobal climate and land use changes have led to unpredictable weather related events with an increase in extreme precipitation and decrease of rain in certain regions.1,7 These shifts have increased the likelihood of flooding, affecting millions of lives.6 In the case of China, the most severe flood in history took place over the summer of 1998, resulting in 4,150 dead, 230 million homeless, and more than US$31 billion in economic losses; flood disasters more recently in 2011 throughout Asia caused the loss of thousands of lives. In Pakistan and the Philippines alone, more than 2,000 deaths were reported (Table 1).

Worse, a study found that global warming has doubled the likelihood of natural disasters such as floods and droughts.7 This is corroborated by recent flooding disasters, such as those in 2011 across Asia-Pacific.

To mitigate the adverse impact of such disasters, we should develop an urban adaptation strategy involving existing institutional arrangements, nonstructural counter measures (i.e. assessment of the future climate change risk of flooding, vulnerabilities) and structural counter measures on an urban scale.

Whilst capacity building with knowledge enhancement could help achieve institutional reforms, introduction of technology and development of monitoring, warning and forecasting systems for disasters, as well as improvements in residential evacuation, would be critical in coping with large-scale disasters and saving lives. For example, the use of a virtual operational evacuation model that supplies real-time information on how and where to evacuate could achieve a major reduction in the required evacuation time.

In addition to these innovative measures, water retention capacity needs to improve if the possibility of downstream floods exists. Conventional land use zoning, proven to be both expensive and ineffective, should be replaced by more dynamic tools to guide the private sector’s infrastructure investments.

While floods are primarily caused by the rise in intensity of precipitation, they also result from the shrinkage of lakes, riverine siltation, reduced water infiltration, river corridor cultivation, and urbanisation. For river basins, several mitigation policies for minimising floods can be very effective including: • Connecting lakes and river networks to increase water buffering capacity; most lakes in the river basins (for example, 80 per cent of the remaining lakes in the Yangtze River)5 are no longer linking rivers due to man-made reclamation, decreasing water retention.

• Re-vegetation, particularly in the upper streams, as forest coverage has a higher water retention capacity, estimated at 300 times per hectare more than bare land.4 Reforestation also decreases soil erosion and thus, river aggradation.

• Prohibiting the cultivation of the river corridor and minimising floodplain use. Riverine riparian zones are generally heavily 30 · Issue 04/2012 ·

Table 1. Some major floods cost thousands of lives and caused billions of dollars of damage

Year

Region

Overall losess (US$)

Deaths

People impacted

2011

China

40 billion

2000

1998

China

31 billion

4150

1996

China

24 billion

3050

1991

China

2.5 billion

431

2011

Korea

1999

Korea

0.33 billion

41

1995

North Korea

15 billion

70

2011

Thailand

3.1 billion

708

2005

Thailand

2011

Philippines

2009

Philippines

2011

Vietnam

44 M

>30

1999

Vietnam

6.5 M

60

2011

India

55

1.3 M

2009

India

250

25 M

2007

Indonesia

>100

2011

Cambodia

2010

Pakistan

2011

Singapore

2011

Australia

230 M

90 M

70

>2 M

27 0.03 billion

0.16 billion

>2000

Millions

240

0.33 M

>200

1.2 M

2000

200 M Orchard Road Submergence

>8 billion

>20

Figure. 1. Integrated People and Resource Dynamic Project including monitoring, forecasting and action and mitigation systems for floods

cultivated and inhabited by local people, with no mitigation capacity for sudden storms. Often people living along riverbeds are extremely vulnerable to storms and floods as a result. This is particularly true of India and China.

• Proper dam operation can regulate the downstream flow regime, i.e. most dams have the capacity of flooding control such as decreasing water discharges during the flooding period.2 • Public self-help capacity during floods. Besides governmental aid, helping civilians to help themselves more during flood alerts and actual floods is also important particularly for remote villages.

1.

With anthropogenic climate shifts intensifying in the future, smarter flood mitigation programmes that integrate monitoring, forecasting, action and mitigation is therefore merited (Fig. 1).

Dr. Li Siyue is an ecologist and Research Associate at the Institute of Water Policy (IWP) at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Policy, National University of Singapore (NUS). He can be reached at spplis@nus.edu.sg. Dr. Lu Xi Xi is an Associate Professor at the NUS Department of Geography and a Faculty Affiliate of IWP. He can be reached at geoluxx@nus.edu.sg

Allan R.P. (2011). Human influence on rainfall. Nature, 470, 344-345.

2.

Chao, B.F., Wu, Y.H., Li, Y.S. (2008). Impact of Artificial Reservoir Water Impoundment on Global Sea Level. Science, 320, 212-214.

3.

Karl, T.R., Trenberth, K.E. (2003). Modern Global Climate Change. Science, 302, 1719-1723.

4.

Li, S.Y., Liu, W., Gu, S., Zhang, Q. (2009). Eco-environmental crisis and countermeasures of the upper Han River basin (Water source area of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project), China.

Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 18, 264-270.

5.

Lu, X.X., Yang, X.K., Li, S.Y. (2011). Dam not sole cause of Chinese drought. Nature, 475, 174.

6.

Pall, P et al. (2011). Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000. Nature, 470, 382-385.

7.

Schiermeier, Q. (2011). Increased flood risk linked to global warming. Nature, 470, 316.

· Issue 04/2012 · 31

Image: ANDREY SMIRNOV/AFP/Getty Images

Russian people dig a ditch to protect them from fires in the village Mokhovoye, Lukhovitsi municipal district, 130 kilometres from Moscow.

Harnessing the power of the “iCrowd”

by Erik Hersman

W

hen I was a child growing up in Southern Sudan, we lived next to a sand river on whose banks we played regularly. One day in the middle of our playing, we heard what sounded like a train coming towards us. Everyone started running back home; it turned out to be a flash flood. A sudden downpour upstream had quickly turned into a menacing flood. My sister and I barely made it out alive, getting hauled up the embankment by passersby as the roaring waters surged past full of uprooted trees, rocks and other large debris.

Anyone who has been caught in a flash flood knows how quickly they become dangerous. Buildings, livestock, cars and people swept up by fastrising waters get washed away, never to be seen again. Often, it is the lack of information that keeps people from walking into harm’s way. Today, tools such as cell phones are abundant, as are social media apps that have empowered people in some of poorest areas to create incredible social movements, raising the possibility of using these tools to create better early warning systems.

Harnessing the crowd In early 2008, violent protests erupted in Kenya when the national elections were disputed. Popular media conglomerates were intimidated; the government was quiet, and neither the media nor aid groups could get to all the places that were in trouble. In the absence of up-to-date information, innocent people were walking into the middle of violent areas without any idea that they were doing so. Frustrated, an ad-hoc group of volunteers built a new platform that would allow ordinary people to send information

32 · Issue 04/2012 ·

...coordinated relief distribution of food and water is often a mess, due to deficient information on where to go, how to get there, and who to talk to.

Having access to this type of information is key. Thus information flow is essential for disaster management.

A “crowdmap” of the ethnic violence that followed the 2007 Kenyan elections. As Kenyans from across the country texted reports of violence from their cellphones or via email, they created a pretty complete picture of where and on what scale the violence took place.

in from wherever they were. The very simple platform allowed people to SMS, email or use the Internet to send in reports of troubled and safe zones; these data were mapped, and suddenly, people knew which areas to avoid (see “crowdmap”). We called it “Ushahidi”, which means “testimony” in Swahili. Implicit in this system is a sense of empowerment of the individual and community.

Since then, the Ushahidi platform, a free and open-source technology, has been used more than 23,000 times in the U.S. as well as in 154 other countries. It was used in Haiti and Japan after their earthquakes, as well as helped with cleanups after blizzards and hurricanes in the US, and the oil spill off the Gulf of Mexico, to name just a few. The flooding that we’ve seen in Australia, Pakistan, Japan and other countries over the last couple of years has given me cause to think about how our technology, including Ushahidi, can be used in dealing with water issues.

In the past few years we’ve seen communities in Russia, Italy, Kenya and elsewhere using tools such as Ushahidi, FrontlineSMS and of course community radio to communicate with each other. With a lack of information from official sources, rural, tribal and other less politically prominent communities can (and do) figure out ways to get updates and alerts from individuals to individuals in ways that are much more efficient, faster and timely than the official communication modes of governments, or big media.

For instance, during a heatwave in Russia in 2010, the government wasn’t fulfilling its responsibility to provide assistance and equipment to fight the fires around the country. Annoyed citizens took matters into their own hands and used the Ushahidi platform to self-organise and map out the hot spots, what was needed and who could help. Efforts ended up being supported by local businesses, civil society groups and the citizens more broadly—a great example of what can be done when people have the tools needed to self-organise and solve their own problems.

Importance of technology In a disaster situation, coordinated relief distribution of food and water is often a mess, due to deficient information on where to go, how to get there, and who to talk to. Having access to this type of information is key.

Thus information flow is essential for disaster management. As noted, while people’s participation can help in establishing effective channels of

communication, such efforts could be further improved with the use of technology. We know that technology is not a silver bullet, but a tool that can be used to change the way information flows, thereby empowering ordinary people to help each other and themselves.

The proliferation of information technology today enables people to have the tools within reach to participate in creating communication channels that could help in disaster situations. For example, almost all of the deployments seen around Ushahidi are done by the general public. Thus, whilst the people can establish effective communication platforms such as Ushahidi, it’s up to the governments, big media and large NGOs to figure out how to fit such platforms and willingness of the people to participate into their operations.

In the case of Ushahidi, we hope that the public can use it more and more to communicate with live information feeds during a disaster, to coordinate relief efforts or to avoid disaster areas; and that they can work with us to make it better and more useful for everyone.

Erik Hersman is the co-founder of Ushahidi, a crowdsourcing platform that has become a popular disaster management tool for information mapping particularly in developing countries. He is a tech and social media entrepreneur, and a blogger based in Nairobi, Kenya. He can be reached at erik@zungu.com · Issue 04/2012 · 33

Adaptive management In river systems

by Christopher T. Robinson and Michael Doering

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Simply put, “adaptive management” is learning from doing. The procater is life’s currency. Urgent action is needed to guarantee that global water resources are managed for human needs while maximising ess (stakeholder involvement—management actions—scientific monitorthe ecological services of riverine ecosystems. Restoring damaged rivers ing—learn/adapt) is used to revise/modify the original management action. and optimising water resources through management is a theme in many Adaptive management invites stakeholders and multi-disciplinary viewdeveloped countries. Adaptive management is one tool to address large- points to the table. It works best with the involvement of interest groups scale water resource issues. Addressing multiple issues by encouraging par- such as resource managers, water users, stakeholders, and scientists. ticipation and feedback by those affected by river management is a positive With adaptive management, learning follows policy/plan implementation. result. River restoration through adaptive management must simultaneously Stakeholders review outcomes and activities, and use the lessons learned to enhance water use for humans while conserving the ecological role of rivers adapt plans as needed. It takes a broader, ecosystem approach to river management and considers multi-disciplinary viewpoints. It provides resource and their ecosystem services.

Photograph of Punt dal Gal dam (Livigno Reservoir, hydropower facility, Italian-Swiss border) used to regulate flows in the Spöl River through the Swiss National Park. Based on results from a long-term experimental flood programme (beginning in 2000), high-flow events are now incorporated in the adaptive flow management programme for the river.

34 · Issue 04/2012 ·

Photograph of a high-flow event in the Spöl River (left) and graph of the floods used in the experimental programme since 2000. Note the changes in magnitude and number each year as part of the adaptive flow management programme, reflecting ecological knowledge gained from previous floods and water availability in a particular year. Study provides one example of implementing flows in terms of an Optimal Ecological Discharge management strategy.

Intact floodplains comprise a complex mosaic of habitats. Many regmanagers new ways to view an existing river and a systematic method to ulated rivers have lost important floodplain habitats such as islands and react to changes over time.

Flow regulation downstream of dams to mimic natural flows is an exam- also connectivity with the floodplain; properties inherent to intact floodple of adaptive management for rivers. High-flow events are being inte- plains. Restored floodplain overflow areas can absorb the energy of highgrated into adaptive management plans based on scientific theory and evi- flow events thus minimising flood risks and hazards. Using recent advances dence. Examples include the recent high-flow releases in Australia’s Snowy in landscape modeling, high flows can be used to restore habitat features.

This rejuvenates the river connection with floodplains and adjacent lands.

River and those on the USA’s Colorado River below Glen Canyon dam.

High-flow events can pose serious risks and hazards. With adaptive Modeling can show historical floodplain areas expected to best respond management, high-flow events can be used as opportunities to improve the ecologically to high flows. High-flow events could be specifically timed in ecology of regulated riverswhile minimising these risks and hazards. High regulated rivers, whereas managers could anticipate and manage unplanned flows can be a cost effective management action to improve floodplain eco- high flows in less flow-regulated systems. systems. High flows are implemented for a variety of management goals, e.g., (1) restoring fisheries, (2) manipulating floodplain habitats, and (3) Adaptive management in a global context improving the ecological services of river ecosystems. Indeed, high-flow Global climate change is shifting precipitation timing and magnitude and increasing the frequency of high-flow events and periods of water scarcity. events can be viewed as large-scale ecosystem experiments.

Adaptive management uses the principles of high-flow events to miti- Computer forecasts and recent scientific evidence have predicted delayed gate hydropower effects on rivers. For example, “hydropeaking” (i.e. the alpine winter precipitation, which now occurs in late winter and early rapid increase in water released from a reservoir) can negatively impact spring. Higher spring temperatures increase the probability for elevated river ecosystems, and adaptive management of hydropeaking can reduce spring flows followed by extreme low flows or drought in late summer.

Essentially, water from ice and snowmelt is coming too early and too fast. these effects. · Issue 04/2012 · 35

Oblique photograph of the Urbachtal (central Alps, Switzerland) during an extreme flood event in 1998 (left). Right figure shows the number of changes in six different floodplain habitats derived from referenced historical aerial images from 1940 to 2007 for the Urbachtal. Recent GIS analyses are revealing historical channels that could be reconnected to the main channel, enhancing the hydrological connectivity of this floodplain of national importance, while mitigating or reducing the risks and hazards of extreme flow events to local landowners.

Other factors affecting flows, such as escalating water withdrawals caused irrigation diversions and levies. One goal is to restore floodplain connectivby an increasing global population, have resulted in many rivers failing to reach ity while minimising adverse landowner effects. It is expected that opening the ocean, especially in arid regions. Most large rivers are regulated through more side-channels will reduce and mitigate high-flow risks and hazards. damming and reservoir networks. Globally, there are more than 50,000 large Anticipated benefits are enhancement of floodplain habitats and biodiversity. dams in place with additional dams planned in developing countries.

Water needs of an increasing global population and increasing awareness Long-term adaptive flow management for the Spöl River in the Swiss of the value of river ecosystem services provide the stage for an adaptive National Park uses high flows through dam releases to simulate the natu- management approach. This approach, taking into account multiple issues, ral flow regime of the river. Beginning in 2000 and based on water avail- viewpoints, and stakeholders, benefits river planning in many ways. It can ability, flood gates at Lago di Livigna reservoir are opened, creating two to be used to bring stakeholders to a common table to optimise river resources three floods each year. The floods were initiated to improve trout habitat for humans and fulfill the river’s role in floodplains. Damaged river ecosyswith tangential benefits to other river organisms. Using adaptive manage- tems can be repaired, restored, and enhanced through adaptive management ment, stakeholders, scientists and community interest groups have worked of high flows. Moreover, global water problems resulting from environmenin monitoring the river and interpreting the results. This experiment has been tal changes can be mitigated by adaptive management. so successful that high-flow events are now part of the regulatory framework.

Flood timing and magnitude have changed over time as the system contin- Christopher T. Robinson is a stream ecologist and Senior Research ues to respond to the new flow regime. Under adaptive management, these Scientist in the Department of Aquatic Ecology, Swiss Federal Institute system changes encourage new goals and ongoing modification of the plan. of Aquatic Science and Technology (EAWAG). He can be reached at In the Urbachtal study, a landscape modeling approach is used to selecChristopher.Robinson@eawag.ch. Michael Doering is a Research tively re-open channels following an adaptive flow management pro- Scientist in the Department of Aquatic Ecology at EAWAG. He can be gramme. Flow in the Urbach is mostly natural, although regulated through reached at michael.doering@eawag.ch 36 · Issue 04/2012 ·

Glacial melting and flooding: causes, risks and impacts

by Arun Bhakta Shrestha

G

lacial flooding is an often overlooked issue that must be given greater Although the GLOF caused only three deaths it caused serious damage to priority within policymaking circles. Few people are aware of the the nearly completed Namche Hydropower Project, washed away big area grave dangers they pose to the watersheds they serve. of cultivated land, 14 trail bridges, and 30 houses including livestock along Glaciers hold about 70 per cent of the world’s freshwater and have been its path downstream. The estimated loss due to damage to the Namche significantly receding in response to changing climate. After the Little Ice Hydropower alone was US$1.5 million.4 These types of events are likely Age (1550–1850 AD), glaciers have experienced tremendous recession.1 to be more frequent in the future in the wake of climate change. In past The glacier area and ice reserve in Nepal, for example, has decreased by 21 50 years, there have been about 35 GLOF events in the HKH region.3 Yet per cent and 28 per cent respectively since the 1970’s. The average rate of it is only recently that this phenomenon has attracted international attenglacier shrinkage has been 30 square kilometres per year.2 tion. Besides these events, every year some small scale outbursts occur, As glaciers recede, they leave behind increasing lakes in the spaces they which often go unnoticed due to the limited scale of the events and remote once occupied retained by natural dams. These natural dams, called moraine locations.

Further, GLOFs can cause significant transboundary impacts when they dams, are composed of unconsolidated debris or “moraine” deposited by the glacier over time along its periphery and often consist of stone, gravel, originate in one country and impact downstream countries. For example, sand and silt. Not surprisingly, the dams are structurally weak and unstable, ten GLOFs originating in Tibet have had significant impact in Nepal. The and can breach or fail without warning. When this happens, the lake emp- Sun Koshi flood of 1980 is a good example of a GLOF that originated from ties in a series of flash floods that devastate downstream areas. Travelling Zhangzhangbo Lake in Tibet but caused massive damage to the infrastrucdown steep inclines, the flood waves gain momentum quickly and pick up ture in Nepal.5 While the problem initiated in Tibet, the brunt of the disaster morainic materials along the way causing significant damage to riparian work and its recovery had to be borne by the Nepali government and people. communities, hydropower stations and other infrastructure. Called “Glacial The key point that policymakers and the general public must take note Lake Outburst Floods” (GLOFs), they can be triggered by rock slides, snow of is that glacial flooding and GLOFs are a very real, exacerbating issue avalanches, ice avalanches from overhanging glaciers, earthquakes, rapid with devastating consequences; and the source of significant transboundary inflow from higher lakes or internal conduits of parent glacier etc. challenges in the future. Thus, forecasting, monitoring and mitigation are In the whole Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region alone, 8,790 glacial absolutely essential. lakes with a total area of 799.49 square kilometres have been inventoried, although the inventory does not yet cover the whole region. More than 200 Fixing the problem of these lakes have been categorised as potentially dangerous.3 To effectively deal with the threat of GLOF, it is essential to conduct sysOn August 4, 1985, a disastrous GLOF occurred at Dig Tsho Glacier tematic risk assessments of the potentially dangerous lakes and prioritise Lake in the Langmoche valley of Khumbu region in eastern Nepal.4 the lakes where mitigation measure has to be implemented. A GLOF risk · Issue 04/2012 · 37

It is unlikely that large-scale international assistance programmes to countries hit by major floods or tsunamis will help mitigate the risk of future damage from natural disasters.

TshoRolpa is the largest and most dangerous glacial lake in Nepal. In 1999-2000 the Government of Nepal implemented mitigation measures to lower the lake level by 3 metres at the cost of US$3 million

Public areas, settlements and infrastructures are at risk due to potential GLOFs, often transboundary in nature.

assessment might include several steps such as: (1) Identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes based on desk study (remote sensing and GIS based) and prioritising them based on vulnerability of the downstream impact area; (2) field-based study of the lakes to assess the hazard. This essentially involves the assessment of the lake volume, the extent of buried ice in the moraine complex, the freeboard available on the end moraine and other characteristics of the lake and its surrounding; (3) GLOF simulation, a useful tool to understand the potential impact of GLOF to the downstream riparian areas. (4) socio-economic study of the downstream impact areas.

The risk assessment will ultimately provide a list of high-risk glacial lakes,

with which intervention strategies can be planned, prioritised and implemented. The risk assessment will enable stakeholders to make selection of appropriate structural, non-structural and social adaptation measures. In resource and capacity challenged areas, such as the HKH region, it would help if neighbour countries make consortiums to pool resources and create coordinated mitigation plans.

It is also very important to involve and increase the community preparedness and resilience in order for downstream communities to survive.

Unlike other types of floods, GLOFs form and propagate extremely rapidly with very little lead time. In such cases early warning systems (EWS) can be very useful to warn people living in the downstream riparian areas about the onset of a GLOF event.

Dr. Arun B. Shrestha is a Climate Change specialist and expert on glaciers and glacial hazard mitigation, based at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). He can be reached at abshrestha@icimod.org

1.

Yamada, T. (1998). Monitoring of glacier lake and its outburst floods in Nepal Himalaya. Japanese Society of Snow and Ice, Monograph No. 1, pp. 96.

2.

Bajracharya, S.R., Maharjan, S.B. and Shrestha, F. (2011). Glaciers Shrinking in Nepal Himalaya. In J. Blanco and H. Kheradmand (Eds.), Geophysical Foundations and Ecological Effects (pp. 445-458). InTech.

3.

Ives, J., Shrestha, R.B. and Mool, P.K. (2010). Formation of glacial lakes in the Hindu Kush-Himalayas and GLOF Risk Assessment. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Kathmandu. pp. 56.

4.

Ives, J.D. (1986). Glacial lake outburst floods and risk engineering in the Himalaya. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Kathmandu. pp. 42.

5.

Shrestha, A.B., Eriksson, M., Mool, P., Ghimire, P., Mishra, B. and Khanal, N.R. (2010). Glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment of Sun Koshi basin, Nepal, Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk 1, 157–169.

38 ¡ Issue 04/2012 ¡

Image: SEBASTIAN D'SOUZA/AFP/Getty Images

A flooded street in Mumbai, July 2005, after torrential rains paralysed the city.

Flood mitigation in Mumbai: rains, drains and delays

by Gautam Pemmaraju

T

he fact-finding committee appointed by the Government of Maharashtra in the wake of the dramatic flooding in Mumbai on 26 July 2005 made several recommendations, including those specifically related to the rehabilitation and reorganisation of urban storm water drains. The original study of the city’s drains was commissioned in 1988, after the floods of 1985, and further its report submitted in 1993, the Brihanmumbai Storm Water Drains (BRIMSTOWAD) project was initiated. Initially bogged down by a lack of financial resources, the project was revived with central government funding after the 2005 floods. The progress has been slow and civic authorities have faced a complex range of challenges, some which persist to date.

The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) is currently handling 58 projects in two phases, of which 22 per cent remains to be completed in the first, and 67 per cent remains in the second, according to official sources in the SWD (Storm Water Drains) Department. The Mumbai Metropolitan Regional Development Authority (MMRDA) has also conducted work in downstream areas.

As pointed out by experts1,2, there have been many institutional challenges. Coordination between different civic agencies and discretionary authorities, procedural formalities, land acquisition obstacles for pumping stations at outfall locations have contributed alongside several other macro issues, such as rapid urbanisation, increase in population, and other socio-economic factors. The importance of the Mithi River, particularly, its role as a primary channel for discharge of storm water and sewage, has been critical in studies and recommendations. Its flood plains have seen encroachments over the decades; several holding ponds and basins have also been illegally occupied. Further, contemporary research has pointed out that there has been a rapid increase in impervious land from an increase in paved surfaces, thus reducing the land cover capable of prevent rain · Issue 04/2012 · 39

Flood mitigation, therefore, is a multidimensional issue and the complexity and interplay of the many layers impact implementation plans.

water from soaking into the ground, filtering through soils, and gradually seeping into streams.

The Mithi River Development Authority was set up to examine and implement restoration of the river to its ‘pre-development conditions’.2 All authorities and experts point directly to the reduced capacity of Mumbai’s storm water drains as the critical component of the complex problem of urban flooding. Flood mitigation, therefore, is a multi-dimensional issue and the complexity and interplay of the many layers impact implementation plans.

Besides clearage and regular maintenance of drains, widening of waterways, moderating the Mithi River water flow, desilting and dredging projects, hydrological examinations and aerial surveys have been conducted towards addressing the main objective—increasing the drainage capacity and rate. Global issues such as climate change, particularly temperature, convection and rain patterns, rising sea waters, also contribute in no small measure to the broader problem. The historic city drains, dating back to colonial era town planning, have over time grown into a “mix of simple drains and a complicated network of rivers, creeks, drains and ponds. A network of closed drains below the roads has evolved in the city—the roads have evolved by covering the old drains in the city whilst there are open drains in the suburbs”1. As a high level official admitted, the severity of the 2005 rains,3,4 aside from the inaction in implementing BRIMSTOWAD, and other environmental factors, overwhelmed this hierarchical network completely, and “the roads themselves had become storm water drains”.5,6,7 Civic management of rising road levels is also a major concern and recent aerial mapping has provided a contemporary picture of gradient changes.

A wide variety of solutions and responses have emerged over the interim period and Mumbai is expected to have a revamped storm water drain system by 2014. Associated institutional responses have also

emerged—revamping of the disaster management strategy, upgrading of emergency control measures, and development of real time flood warning systems. As is clear from the 2005 experience (and other global events), the public health dimensions are all too obvious. Here too, measures in addressing medical/paramedical inadequacies have emerged. At the central level too, urban renewal projects, national guidelines for disaster management and storm water drainage have been formulated.

While there has been a concerted effort to address urban flooding in the city, the continuing problems of congestion, pollution, waste and resource management, seem to often outweigh the pace of response and reform. Cost escalation of the project has also been a major concern. Originally pegged at approximately US$215,324,000, current estimates of the escalation place it at US$699,800,000.8 To add to these woes, there has been much speculation regarding financial mismanagement, and the Maharashtra Chief Minister recently alleged corrupt practices.

A major contributing factor is illegal encroachments. New reports and experts continue to point out that work is periodically delayed or stalled due to land issues. Land acquisition, rehabilitation of dwellers/squatters and delays due to other disputes is a recurring problem in Mumbai, and the solution, primarily juridical and political, lies also in innovative policy changes.

Major civic and infrastructure works in Mumbai consistently face implementation issues due to land related problems. The need for heightened and sustained evaluation, optimum communication, timely responses, longterm realistic policy changes at the highest level, effective micro-management and implementation at the ground level, seem critical factors in addressing flood mitigation in Mumbai.

Gautam Pemmaraju is a citizen journalist and filmmaker based in Mumbai, India. He can be reached at gautam.pemmaraju@gmail.com

1.

Gupta, K. (2009). Mitigating urban flood disasters in India. In Paradigms. Feyen, J, Shannon K, and Neville M (Eds.) Water and Urban Development (pp. 237-250). CRC Press.

2.

Ranade, R and Hasen, A. Increasing Storm Water Drainage Capacity of Mithi River and Mumbai City drains, 3CD Sound Practice Manual.

3.

Gupta, K. (2006). Urban Flooding: Vulnerability, Preparedness and Mitigation – 944 mm Mumbai 26/07/2005 event. Presentation, International Centre for Excellence in Water Resources Management, Adelaide, 29 May 2006.

4.

Conservation Action Trust. (2006). Mumbai marooned: an enquiry into Mumbai floods 2005 - final report. Retrieved from: http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/reports-documents/ mumbai-marooned-enquiry-mumbai-floods-2005-final-report

5.

Kamath, N. (2007, December 4). The Mumbai Project: An underground revolution. Hindustan Times. Retrieved from http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/Print/261378.aspx.

6.

Shukla S. (2011, May 18). CRZ clearance, land disputes hold up Brimstowad project. Express India. Retrieved from http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/ crz-clearance-land-disputes-hold-up-brimstowad-project/792298/

7.

Shukla S. (2012, March 27). BRIMSTOWAD project: Civic body plans 3-point approach to restrict cost escalation. The Financial Express. Retrieved from http://www.financialexpress.com/news/ brimstowad-project-civic-body-plans-3point-approach-to-restrict-cost-escalation/928921/0

8.

Upadhyaya P, Naik Y and Mhaske P. (2012, February 12). Just days before BMC polls, CM drops the bomb. Mumbai Mirror. Retrieved from http://www.mumbaimirror.com/printarticle.aspx?page=comments&action =translate&sectid=15&contentid=201202122012021202111780765970835&subsite=

40 · Issue 04/2012 ·

Developing sustainable forests in flood-prone riparian zones

by Melvin J. Baughman Organic matter and large woody debris contributes streambank stability to the stream.

F

orests that grow in riparian zones serve several valuable functions including flood mitigation, as well as serving as sources of income for local populations in terms of timber or other agricultural or agro-based products. In terms of flood mitigation, they dissipate stream energy, limit soil erosion, and protect downstream communities from flashfloods. However, tree species vary in their tolerance to flooding, and with increasing development, need to be manipulated in order to develop more sustainably.

A sustainable forest is more than trees. It is a complex ecosystem with trees, shrubs, plants, and animals interacting with the soil, water, climate and other growing site conditions. In a forest setting where the natural ecosystem is relatively intact, natural reproduction of trees occurs routinely and gene flow is sufficient to allow species to evolve and move across the landscape, adjusting species composition to a new flooding regime. Depending on the tree species and the ecosystem in which they occur, generally, forests slow the flow of floodwater, reducing downstream flood heights; transpiring huge amounts of groundwater, and creating conditions dry enough for the forest to regenerate itself. They provide habitat for wildlife; produce wood and other products; and offer sites for recreation or tourism.

Where forests, farming, and development are co-mingled in riparian areas, there likely will be fewer tree species and the forest will be broken into smaller, more isolated pieces. Thus, conditions for natural reproduction may be compromised along with the loss of species diversity and interrupted gene flow across the forest. In such situations, human intervention will be needed to ensure that tree species more adaptable to flooding conditions are established in riparian areas. Land use planners should determine what functions they need from riparian forests. Clearly articulating the desired functions of a riparian forest will help forest managers manipulate the forest to achieve desired outcomes. Water planners need to document or forecast the changing flood regime, particularly changes to flood height, duration or timing as these flood characteristics affect tree growth and survival. Water planners, hydrologists, soil scientists and forest managers should work together to determine how new flooding regimes will affect forest conditions and subsequently the desired forest functions. Here are some difficult issues you need to address.

With information about the expected functions of riparian forests and the expected flooding regime, forest managers need to determine how to reproduce and sustain the riparian forests. However, whilst forest managers know which tree species typically grow in riparian areas, there is relatively little research concerning the effect of flooding on trees. Thus, new research should be conducted in this area.

Prolonged flooding affects soil by reducing their oxygen content, increasing the pH of acid soils and decreasing the pH of alkaline soils, thereby reducing the rate of organic matter decomposition and increasing toxic concentrations of ethanol and hydrogen sulfide in soils. Key research issues needs to be conducted on which tree species tolerate these conditions and how they can be regenerated in riparian zones. Also, flood waters may contain damaging chemicals from urban areas or agricultural fields, which may have adverse impacts on the forest. Thus, another issue is how to reduce chemical use in riparian areas and urban runoff zones.

Tree injury increases in proportion to the per cent of tree crown covered by water. Most tree species can withstand one to four months of flooding during late winter or early spring when they are not actively growing.

However, one to two weeks of flooding during the growing season, especially during warmer weather, can cause severe damage or death to sensitive species. In these circumstances, a third issue that needs to be examined is how to coordinate timber harvests and regeneration practices to successfully regenerate a riparian forest in light of the new flooding regime.

When undertaking such research, a few important factors should be considered. A long-duration flood, especially during the growing season, may decrease height and diameter growth of tree species that are intolerant of flooding, but height and diameter growth may increase for flood tolerant species. Thus, these changes in timber growth forecasts should be accounted for. Further, forests should be managed to sustain vigorous growth because adult trees survive flooding better than over-mature trees or seedlings of the same species. Vigorously growing, healthy trees withstand flooding better than less vigorous trees, although vigour may be irrelevant if a tree is totally submersed in water.

Another factor is that flood weakened trees are more susceptible to stemboring insects and to diseases affecting tree roots and lower stems. While such damage is difficult to forecast, it significantly lowers estimates of wood volume from riparian forests.

Considering the important roles that forests increasingly play in terms of ecology and economic development, it is vital for policymakers to better understand the interaction and impact of flooding on trees so that they can be better used to meet the needs of society.

Melvin Baughman is a Professor Emeritus and former Extension Specialist and Programme Leader at the University of Minnesota’s Department of Forest Resources. He can be reached at Baughman@umn.edu

· Issue 04/2012 · 41

Image: AFP/AFP/Getty Images

Flood waters invaded Bangkok homes in October 2012.

Health implications of waterrelated natural disasters

by Pedro Mas Bermejo

42 · Issue 04/2012 ·

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loods and droughts occur throughout the world on a regular basis.1 As I was preparing this paper, the news reported that a single day’s rains had produced floods in Peru and the Bolivian Amazon; while a continent away in Spain, a 40 per cent decrease in rain (a drought) in the early winter months of 2012 was causing panic amongst the farmers.

In 2011, the world experienced a crisis of both too little and too much water.2 The escalation of water-related natural disasters in the world have made water-related emergency preparedness and outbreak response two of the most significant issues in current times.

Both floods and droughts threaten the quality and quantity of drinking water and sanitation facilities. Increased droughts and water shortages as well as increased flooding due to warming trends and severe weather impact drinking water and sanitation. Flooding of sanitation systems such as septic tanks, latrines, sewerages, or treatment plants can rapidly disperse faecal contaminants that enter water and food, and lead to outbreaks of waterborne diseases such as cholera and diarrhoeal diseases. Droughts, in the other hand, can trigger acute water shortages, adversely affecting hygienic practices and causing more diarrhoeal disease.3 Several studies have shown that the retention of water in household tanks has a significant effect on the quality of the stored water.4, 5 Water stored for up to seven days shows a significant increase in the bacterial content count during that time period. These bacteria are comprised of known opportunistic micro-organisms and thus may have posed a potential health hazard. A further problem with intermittent water supply is that households may be forced to store water within or close to the home, thus leading to increased risks from vector-borne diseases, such as dengue fever.6 Many micro-organisms and biological processes associated with the spread of infectious diseases are dependent on climatic variables, especially temperature, precipitation and humidity. The alteration of ecological systems caused by climate change will lead to major changes in the distribution and incidence of infectious diseases and food poisoning.

Is the world prepared to deal with the escalation of water-related natural disasters? Examples from Latin America prove we are not.

Over the past decade, floods occurred in La Paz, Bolivia (2002) killing 72 people; in Santa Fe, Argentina (2007) affecting 60,000 people and causing 15 deaths; and in Chile (2008) affecting 185,000 people and causing nine deaths. On the other hand, droughts have affected Costa Rica and Brazil in 1999; Argentina, Chile and Paraguay in 2008; and, Guatemala in 2001 and 2009. The drought in Guatemala in 2009 was followed by a major famine that claimed 460 lives, which eventually required the mobilisation of international aid. While the exact causes of death vary, all were related to and exacerbated by floods and droughts, and their impacts on the population either directly or indirectly.

At an international level, there is a consensus that there has been an increase of natural disasters in the past ten years, and according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Red Cross, other international, regional and local agencies, and think tanks, disasters will continue to increase.7 If we are already struggling to minimise the death toll from floodrelated issues with the numbers we have now, how can we expect to deal with the increase in the future? The generation of public policies for prevention of and responding to floods and droughts has become more important than ever before. Such policies should be strengthened with appropriate technical, political and social support. Only preventive and inter-sectoral efforts can mitigate the impact of the water-related natural disasters on human health.

The escalation of water-related natural disasters in the world have made water-related emergency preparedness and outbreak response, two of the most significant issues in current times.

It is essential to draw up plans against floods and droughts with a holistic approach based on the individual, the family and the community with the decisive participation of institutions such as Civil Defense, Fire Brigade, Red Cross, health, education, water and sanitation institutions and others stakeholders.

Finally, I would like to present some recommendations relating to policies and regulations that must be taken into account to minimise the effects of floods and droughts in human health: • Increase of hydraulic storage capacity in upper basins • Increase of hydraulic carrying capacity of rivers • Construction of flooding diversion hydraulic structures • Preparation of flood prone zoning delineation and prohibition of human settlements • Preparation of a preparedness and response plans for droughts • Establishment of legislation giving priority to drinking water over other water uses such as agriculture of non-basic products • Public health education programme for droughts • Installation of water saving devices such as showers, toilets, faucets, etc., financed by water utilities companies where money is recovered by savings in water consumption • Prohibition of installation of sanitation infrastructure in flood prone areas, such as sewage treatments plants, and gravity flow sewers • Promotion of using waterless dry toilets, such as the EcoSan Latrine • Policy for the reuse of treated wastewater for parks and green areas in urban areas • Promotion of “Zero Waste” initiatives for water stewardship.

Dr. Bermejo is a Physician with dual specialties in epidemiology and public health; a full-time professor at the National School of Public Health; and Senior Researcher at the “Pedro Kourí” Institute of Tropical Medicine and the Cuban Academy of Sciences. He can be reached at pmasbe@infomed.sld.cu

1.

Environmental Protection Agency, USA. (2011). Natural Disaster and Weather Emergencies. Severe Drought. Retrieved from http://www.epa.gov/naturalevents/drought.html

2.

Polycarpuo, L. (2011, July 23). The Year of Drought and Flood. Columbia Water Center. Retrieved from http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2011/07/20/the-year-of-drought-and-flood/

3.

Sieber, W. K. et al. (1996). National institute for occupational safety and health indoor environment evaluation experience. Part two: symptom prevalence. Applied Occupational and Environmental Hygiene, 11(6), 540-545.

4.

World Health Organisation. (1997). WHO guidelines for drinking-water quality: Surveillance and control of community supplies. Retrieved from http://www.who.int/water_sanitation_health/dwq/gdwq2v1/en/ index2.html

5.

Gray N. F. (1999). Water technology: An introduction for scientists and engineers. Oxford: Trinity College, University of Dublin.

6.

Caprara, A. et al. (2009). Irregular water supply, household usage and dengue: a bio-social study in the Brazilian Northeast. Cad. Saúde Pública, 25(1), S125-S136.

7.

EIRD/ONU. (2004). Vivir con el riesgo: Informe mundial sobre iniciativas para reducción de desastres. Retrieved from: http://www.eird.org/cd/building-codes/pdf/spa/doc16481/doc16481.htm

· Issue 04/2012 · 43

Engineering mosquito control: lessons from tsunamis, dams and malaria

by William Jobin

D

rastic changes in water levels have had devastating impacts on coastal In their first few days of life, the small mosquito larvae are very fragile and communities in Asia in recent years. Ironically, with careful planning, need the protection of floating vegetation. If the water level in the reservoir engineers can use similar changes to fight the tropical scourge of malaria1 in is raised, mosquito larvae is washed out into deeper water to be attacked Asia, and other tropical regions. After the catastrophic Christmas tsunami in by predatory fish. If the water is then quickly lowered, the floating vegeta2004, which caused extensive coastal flooding in Indonesia, Thailand and tion and remaining mosquito larvae would be stranded on the shore and Sri Lanka, emergency measures had to be taken to attack the malaria mos- become dried out. If this were done weekly, the mosquito population would quitoes which began to breed in the remaining flood waters. With survivors never thrive.

This flushing of the mosquitoes was perfected for ecologic conditions of of the tsunami forced to sleep outdoors after their homes were washed away, subtropical America, but has also been adopted for the conditions supportthey were exposed to these night-biting mosquitoes.

The catastrophic effect of the 2004 tsunami was due to the hydraulic ing malaria in Malaysia. On the island of Penang before the Second World ravages of abrupt changes in water level and to subsequent flooding of War, public health engineers devised flushing siphons which they placed low lands. However these same hydraulic effects can be used to attack in small streams where the local malaria mosquitoes flourished.2 These malaria mosquitoes. The anti-mosquito hydraulic measures include delib- siphons have been operating for more than 70 years, washing out floating erate changes in salinity of coastal waters, and fluctuation of water levels mosquito larvae about once a week. Similar flushing siphons were also used in lagoons and in freshwater reservoirs behind dams. against malaria mosquitoes in islands of the Caribbean Sea. Drainage could have been used in Indonesia after the tsunami to produce As new hydropower dams are constructed on rivers throughout Asia, salinity changes lethal to the mosquitoes. Such coastal engineering meas- Africa and the American tropics, the risk that these dams might cause ures for mosquito control were in fact developed in Indonesia before the malaria among people living nearby should be assessed before the dams are Second World War.2,3 designed.4 Unfortunately for the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River, In addition to coastal drainage measures, how may periodic water-level the risk was not assessed until after it was constructed.5 Experience from fluctuations be used against malaria mosquitoes? An operational technique the Tennessee Valley in America can be used as the basis for healthy design using fluctuating water-levels in hydropower reservoirs was first developed and operation of these new dams, after modifications of the techniques are in the Tennessee River Valley of the southern United States in the 1940s. made to conform to the highly varied biology and ecology of each species As engineers began to plan dams along the Tennessee River, they were very of local malaria mosquitoes. aware of the problem of summer-time malaria.2 Knowing that summer-time malaria clustered around impounded waters, the public health experts work- Dr. William Jobin is an engineer and public health specialist with 50 ing with the Tennessee Valley Authority realised that they could control years of experience fighting malaria and other tropical diseases by mosquito populations in new reservoirs by straightening shorelines, and by engineering, environmental and biological methods. He can be reached fluctuating the reservoir water level during the mosquito breeding season. at blue.nile@earthlink.net

1.

Malaria is a dangerous tropical disease transmitted by many different species of mosquitoes. Over a million people die annually from malaria in Africa.

2.

Oomen J.M.V, de Wolfe, J. and Jobin, W.R. (1988). Health and irrigation. Incorporation of disease control measures in irrigation, a multi-faceted task in design, construction and operation. International Institute for Land Reclamation and Improvement, Wageningen, Netherlands.

3.

Jobin W.R. (1999). Dams and Disease: Ecological Design and Health Impacts of Large Dams, Canals, and Irrigation Systems. London: Francis and Taylor.

4.

Jobin W.R. (2010). A realistic strategy for attacking malaria in Africa. Massachusetts: Boston Harbour Publishers.

5.

Jobin W.R. (2010). Health and environmental impact of dams. Massachusetts: Boston Harbour Publishers.

44 路 Issue 04/2012 路

Rethinking diagnostics for rapid water quality assessments

by Sonaar Luthra

I

n October of 2010, a cholera1 outbreak swept through Haiti and the Dominican Republic that would, over the next 18 months, render more than 500,000 people sick and leave another 7,400 dead.2,3 Without up-to-date information about which water sources were contaminated, it was impossible for public health organisations to contain the epidemic effectively. In spite of the money the United Nations Children's Fund, Oxfam and other nongovernment organisations in the UN’s Water and Sanitation cluster spent to contain the outbreak, they struggled in better targeting the sick and at-risk population with appropriate medical care and supplies. This was because all the available water testing technologies were too expensive, slow and complicated to have provided a clear picture of water quality conditions (particularly in regards to microbial presence) in Haiti and the Dominican Republic as they unfolded.

In field conditions, it currently takes a minimum of 18 hours to perform the most basic tests for determining whether water is potable—yet that assumes one has access to testing equipment, an incubator, a trained technician, and that no mistakes have corrupted the test results. This makes water testing impractical in an emergency because it offers very little information that can guide important decisions—it offers as much perspective on the current situation as a two-day old weather forecast. This is not simply the case with cholera in Haiti, it is just as true with benzene in Pennsylvania

None of the world’s major water-testing standards were designed to enable fast decision-making in a world where information travels in real-time—in fact, most of them were developed a century ago when the value of weather forecasting was still a matter of rigourous debate.

or arsenic in Bangladesh: we do not have any cost-effective ways to obtain large quantities of water quality information fast enough to provide early warnings and prevent the spread of problems that can take years and often decades to recover from.

None of the world’s major water-testing standards were designed to enable fast decision-making in a world where information travels in realtime—in fact, most of them were developed a century ago when the value of weather forecasting was still a matter of rigourous debate. These standards still play an important role in the management of water supplies across the world, but they do not take advantage of a century of innovation that has brought with it mobile connectivity, social networks such as Twitter and crisis mapping platforms such as Ushahidi.4 We have only begun to discover how the convenience of camera phones opens up new possibilities to document and broadcast chance events that might otherwise be missed, and it is clear that more opportunities lie ahead.

While, at this point, these tools still force us to compromise on precision, they also make it possible for us to discern patterns in large datasets fuelled by crowdsourcing, citizen science and connectivity. By way of example, any concerned citizen may one day be able to measure water quality as easily as they might take a photograph. With so many opportunities to explore new tools, infinite data, and networked participation, it’s time to develop new standards and scientific instruments for testing water. Thus, at my company, Water Canary, we seek to build easy open tools to test water for every contaminant we can discover.

Sonaar Luthra is the co-founder of Water Canary, a water-testing device that collects real-time water-quality data from the field. Luthra can be reached at sonaar@watercanary.com

1.

Cholera is a highly communicable bacterial infectious disease that spreads through contaminated water. Often poor sanitation contaminates drinking water sources through which cholera quickly spreads. These epidemics are best contained once contaminated drinking water sources are located and quarantined, and sources of contamination identified and fixed.

2.

Pan-American Health Organisation. Atlas of Cholera Outbreak in La Hispaniola, 2010-2012. Retrieved from http://new.paho.org/hq/images/Atlas_IHR/CholeraHispaniola/atlas.html

3.

UPDATE 1-Haiti launches anti-cholera vaccination campaign. (2012, April). Reuters. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/14/haiti-cholera-idUSL2E8FE2FD20120414

4.

See the article titled “Harnessing the power of the iCrowd” by Ushahidi Co-Founder, Erik Hersman, in this issue of The WaterLeader.

· Issue 04/2012 · 45

“Scuba Rice”: ensuring food security during a flood

by Abdelbagi M. Ismail, David Mackill, Reiner Wassmann and Bas Bouman

46 · Issue 04/2012 ·

A

s Asia’s population continues to grow both in terms of economy and population, food security continues to be an issue of major concern for policy makers. During times of crisis, from tropical storms and tsunamis to their ensuing floods, food security is of particular concern, to feed the local population as well as for economic exports.

Rice is a staple food for over half the world’s population. Rice farming is the dominant agricultural activity in tropical coastal zones of South and Southeast Asia, including low-lying deltas.1 Flooding currently affects more than 20 million hectares of rice lands in South and Southeast Asia, costing the region an estimated US$1 billion annually in crop losses.

Where there is too much water for other crops, or for other uses, rice is the only agricultural staple capable of flourishing in such areas. This provides opportunities to grow rice on lands that are unfavorably affected by heavy floods. While rice plants typically thrive in shallow waters (paddy fields), most rice varieties die after a few days of complete submergence.

Developing rice varieties that flourish and produce well following submergence will alleviate flood damage in many rice-producing areas and thus, add to global efforts for food security and poverty reduction, as these floodaffected lands are mostly over-populated with impoverished communities.

Varieties that can withstand longer intervals of submergence can also help A recent study by the in coping with the adversities of climate change impacts in areas that are or International Food will be receiving more rainfall and floods caused by natural disasters and Policy Research Institute sea level rise.

Recently, flood tolerant or “scuba” rice was developed using modern (IFPRI),6 showed that biotechnology tools.2,3 A gene called SUB1 (Submergence 1) was discovglobal investment in ered by researchers at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) and agricultural research needs the University of California in a strain of rice being grown by farmers in Orissa, India. The expression of this gene protects the plant from damage to be doubled in order to caused by complete flooding (submergence) for more than two weeks when cope with the current and submergence for only a few days is fatal to modern high-yielding varieties anticipated challenges being grown by farmers that lack SUB1. This rice strain, called FR13A, was selected from an old “land race” variety that is low-yielding and with many other characteristics undesirable in modern rice varieties. Researchers developed effective methods that use genetic markers to track SUB1 during breeding, an approach referred to as maker-assisted backcrossing. This approach allows the transfer of this gene in any popular variety within two to three years, while the normal breeding cycle to develop new tolerant varieties can take between six and ten years. The first variety, “SwarnaSub1” was sent to India in 2007, and was officially approved for commercial use in 2009. Since then, seven more popular varieties were converted into tolerant types and evaluated by farmers in South and Southeast Asia, and to date, many of them are being disseminated in countries such as India, Bangladesh, Nepal, the Philippines, Indonesia and Myanmar.3 already major threats to worldwide food security. Providing such solutions SUB1 varieties are expected to make a difference for many flood-prone is within reach, given the recent progress made in technological intervenrice production systems in Asia affected by flash floods. The gene has no tions; and success in developing more resilient varieties and better technolodiscernable effects in the absence of submergence, but its presence can gies to keep up with changing climates are therefore feasible given that sufensure an additional one to three tons or more of grain per hectare over ficient resources are made available. A recent study by the International other varieties following flooding incidences of four to 18 days.3,4 However, Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI),6 showed that global investment in despite protecting the plants when completely submerged, SUB1 is not agricultural research needs to be doubled to cope with the current and anticeffective in situations when plants are totally or partially flooded for longer ipated challenges, including climate change and the steady increase in durations, as in medium and deepwater areas.5 Efforts are needed to develop human population. varieties that have SUB1 characteristics but also survive and yield when flooding is partial but long-lasting.

Dr. Abdelbagi M. Ismail is a Principal Scientist and Plant Physiologist at This advantage of SUB1 varieties in areas affected by transient submer- the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) in the Philippines. He gence stimulated considerable global interest in these varieties and some can be reached at abdelbagi.ismail@cgiar.org. Dr. David Mackill, countries are considering introducing the gene in all lowland rice varieties formerly Principal Scientist of IRRI, is a rice specialist for Mars, Inc. likely to be affected by flash floods. This also encouraged many countries to working on issues related to sustainability and nutrition. Based in the allocate additional resources to produce seeds of SUB1 varieties for farmers Department of Plant Sciences, University of California, Davis, he can be in affected areas in Asia.3 These varieties also performed well in countries reached at djmackill@ucdavis.edu. Dr. Reiner Wassmann is a Senior affected by floods in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Scientist and Climate Change Specialist at IRRI, leading their “Rice and “Scuba rice” for flood-affected areas is one example where technological Climate” programme. He can be reached at r.wassmann@cgiar.org. interventions can play a key role in coping with some of the damaging Dr. Bas Bouman is a senior water scientist, head of the Crop and effects of weather perturbations and climate change. Similar efforts are Environmental Sciences Division, and leader of IRRI’s programme ongoing to meet other adversities such as drought, salinity and high tem- “Sustainable Rice production Systems”. He can be reached at peratures, all of which are worsening with global warming, despite being bbouman@irri.org

1.

Ismail, A.M., &Tuong, T. P. (2009). Brackish water coastal zones of monsoon tropics: Challenges and opportunities. In S. Haefele and A. M. Ismail (Eds.), Natural Resource Management for Poverty Reduction and Environmental Sustainability in Fragile Rice-Based Systems. Limited Proceedings No.15 (pp. 113–121). Manila, Philippines: International Rice Research Institute.

2.

Xu, K., Xia X., Fukao, T., Canlas, P., Maghirang-Rodriguez, R., Heuer S., Ismail, et al. (2006). Sub1A is an ethylene response factor-like gene that confers submergence tolerance to rice. Nature, 442, 705-708.

3.

Mackill, D.J., Ismail, A.M., Singh, U.S., Labios, R.V., Paris, T.R. (2012). Development and rapid adoption of submergence-tolerant (Sub1) rice varieties. Advances in Agronomy, 115, 303–356.

4.

Singh, S., Mackill, D. J., and Ismail, A. M. (2009). Responses of SUB1 rice introgression lines to submergence in the field: Yield and grain quality. Field Crops Res, 113, 12–23.

5.

Singh, S., Mackill, D. J., & Ismail, A. M. (2011). Tolerance of longer-term partial stagnant flooding is independent of the SUB1 locus in rice. Field Crops Res, 121, 311-323.

6.

von Braun J., Fan, S., Meinzen-Dick M., Rosegrant, M. W., Pratt, A. N. (2008). International agricultural research for food security, poverty reduction and the environment; what to expect from scaling up CGIAR investments and “best bet” programmes. IFPRI. Retrieved from: http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/pubs/pubs/books/oc58.pdf

· Issue 04/2012 · 47

Plan of Pompeii, 1922.

Flood risk and house price inertia: a source of comfort or concern? Some lessons from Pompeii

by Gwilym Pryce

A

nyone who has visited the Italian city of Pompeii cannot fail to be amazed at the sight of its ancient inhabitants, their forms preserved like statues. One of the most striking things about this remarkable snapshot is that the people of Pompeii appear to have been entirely oblivious to the scale of impending catastrophe, “getting on with their busy lives, in total ignorance of what was to come”.1

48 · Issue 04/2012 ·

At the same time, we know that the lives of these ancient people were, like our own, plagued with anxiety. They worried about their mortality, about the wrath of the gods, about the great giants beneath the mountains, about their fate in the after-life, about their status, future security and prosperity. With the benefit of hindsight, we can see a great paradox for these condemned inhabitants: so many of the fears that troubled them would prove to be unfounded, and yet of the risk that ultimately led to their destruction, they seemed to be rather sanguine. Even when the volcano Mount Vesuvius started to erupt, it seemed witnesses reacted more with curiosity than terror.1 The story of Pompeii may offer a salutary lesson for planners, policy makers and urban economists seeking to interpret the house-price and firmlocation response to anticipated increases in flood risk predicted by climate change. Tempting as it is to use insurance claims as a guide to the cost of flood events, they can grossly under-estimate the true economic impact because they overlook not only the plight of the uninsured but also the second-round effects of flood risk. So the most obvious place to look for a reliable guide to the likely effect of future floods is the academic housing and employment literatures.

So what do statistical studies tell us about the impact of flooding on house prices and employment? Perhaps surprisingly, they appear to show very little long-term effect. We have extensive accounts of apparent inertia in market responses. Even when significant deluges occur, house prices and employment appear to bounce back2-6 with remarkable resilience. And if we look at how house prices vary across areas with high and low longterm risks of flooding we see very little difference. The same is true for areas predicted to have very high future changes to flood risk compared with those that have none. Some studies even suggest that there is no house price response at all8,9 or that the effect is positive.4,6 Some have taken comfort from this finding. For them, house price inertia is indicative of economic resilience, the robustness of markets and capitalism to the unruly storms of nature. For others, however, this very same market apathy is interpreted as real cause for alarm. Analogously, we may look in hindsight on the ruins of Pompeii as a tragedy, not because of the eruption of Mount Vesuvius, but because of the apparent indolence of those that witnessed the warning signs.7 Why should we be worried about market inertia? Sluggish responsiveness to rising flood risk may suggest the existence of nonlinearities and tipping-points in how markets will eventually adjust to climate change. A process of inertia followed by sudden collapse can be far more damaging to economies and individuals than change that is steady and planned for.

So the non-response apparent in historical data may be telling us something quite fundamental about how humans respond to risk.10 It may be

symptomatic of their intrinsic lack of foresight—"myopia"—or misplaced assumptions about ability of governments to provide support and protection.11 Or perhaps it reflects unfounded trust in the efficiency and capacity of insurance companies to offer inexpensive comprehensive cover in a world made ever more prone to major flood events. Such benign responses to historical floods may, like the innocuous tremors that preceded the destruction of Pompeii, be leading us into a false sense of security.

Already we are seeing signs of the edifice which undergirds market stability beginning to crumble. Insurance companies are withdrawing from long-held agreements with government to offer low premium cover to highflood-risk areas. And even the governments themselves are making explicit their limited capacity to provide flood defences, abandoning entire coastlines to the sea.

So, Pompeii, for all its distant wonder, raises some compelling questions for us today about how people and markets behave when faced with the risk of impending disaster. Do we believe that, like so many prophecies of doom, climate change, rising sea levels and looming flood disasters are like the mythical giants hiding in mountains—nothing but empty spectres?

Or should we look on the comatose response of the market with a sense of urgency—as a portent of hidden market failure on an unprecedented scale?

Note that even the myths about mountain giants and their stirrings (supposedly the cause of ancient volcanic eruptions) were in fact omens of very real geological risks.

Whether we like it or not, the time to decide, and to act, is now. An important goal should be to encourage market signals (such as insurance premiums, mortgage interest rates and house prices) to reflect the true risk of flooding. This requires both better models of flood risk (with the results made freely and easily available) and a move away from subsidised insurance arrangements. Without the appropriate price signals, individuals and firms will not make well-informed decisions—a prerequisite for long-term economic resilience. Reliable market signals will also help governments assess more accurately the true economic costs and benefits of building flood defences in one area rather than another. Limited government resources mean that tough decisions will inevitably have to be made, but far better that they are based on good evidence rather than the distorted market signals we observe at present.11 Gwilym Pryce is a Professor of Urban Economics and Social Statistics in the Department of Urban Studies, University of Glasgow. He is also Director of the Glasgow Social Statistics Group, and the Chair of the Scottish Housing Economics and Finance Research Network. For further details, see www.gpryce.com, or email him at gwilym.pryce@glasgow.ac.uk

1.

Wallace-Hadrill, A. (2011, March). Pompeii: Portents of Disaster. BBC News. Retrieved from: www.bbc.co.uk/history/ancient/romans/pompeii_portents_01.shtml (Accessed 23 March 2012).

2.

Leiter, A., Oberhofer, H., & Raschky, P. (2009). Creative disasters? Flooding effects on capital, labour and productivity within European firms. Environmental and Resource Economics, 43, 333-350.

3.

Leiter et al. (2009), for example, observe that employment growth was significantly higher in those European regions which were hit by the 2000 floods.

4.

Tobin, G. A. & Montz, B. E. (1994). The flood hazard and dynamics of the urban residential land market. Water Resources Bulletin, 30 (4), 673-685.

5.

Eves, C. (2002). The long-term impact of flooding on residential property values. Property Management, 20 (4), 214-227.

6.

Lamond, J. and Proverbs, D. (2006). Does the price impact of flooding fade away? Structural Survey, 24 (5), 363-377.

7.

As Wallace-Hadrill (2011) notes, “The people of Pompeii were quite unprepared for the eruption of Vesuvius… The signs of impending disaster, though, were there--why did no-one pick up on them?”

8.

Bialaszewski, D. & Newsome, B. A. (1990). Adjusting comparable sales for floodplain location: the case of Homewood, Alabama. The Appraisal Journal, 58(1), 115 - 118.

9.

Zimmerman, R. (1979). The effect of flood plain location on property values: three towns in northeastern New Jersey. Water Resources Bulletin, 15 (6), 1653-1665.

10. Levin, E. & Pryce, G. (2008). Beyond reason. Residential Property Journal. Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, August/September 2008.

11. Pryce, G., Chen, Y. & Galster, G. (2011). Impact of floods on house prices: an imperfect information approach with myopia and amnesia. Housing Studies, 26 (2), 259-279.

· Issue 04/2012 · 49

Respecting rivers

by Graeme Lang

“May the rivers overflowing grant us their grace…”

Rig Veda, VI. 52.4 “Forth comes the Yellow River, out from its Dragon Gates, And endless, endless, are the miles it flows with furious waves!

Now—to train its traveling surges not to overspill their course, The current of the waters must be weakened near their source.”

Zhang Yongquan, Qing dynasty poet 3

T

he poetry above comes from the great civilizations of India and China.

Like other major agricultural societies, both were built around rivers, and river imagery flowed into their metaphors, songs, poems, and myths. For example in China, from ancient times the Yellow River “has twisted and woven its perilous unpredictability into the fabric of China’s cultural and political development”.1 In India and other societies, rivers could be treated as, or were inhabited by, gods and goddesses. In both civilizations, the ancients deeply respected these rivers, knowing how

much their lives and prosperity depended on the flow of water past fields, villages, and towns.

Yet, these cultures contained different approaches to the river’s power.

In the Rig Veda image, rivers are venerated for supplying the waters of life. However, the Qing dynasty poet proposed that control is necessary to receive blessings of the river while avoiding destructive floods. China devoted massive resources, as well as enormous intellectual and physical labour in attempts over many centuries to control rivers using dams, dykes, and diversions, and employing a river-bureaucracy of engineers and imperial officials. Other river-dependent civilizations have also tried to control their rivers.

Some of these societies nevertheless degraded landscapes around the rivers through deforestation. Chinese observers knew, long before the modern era, that deforestation in the hills around major rivers could increase the severity of flooding,3 but this knowledge did not typically lead to controls over deforestation. The response of the state to the threat of floods was river-engineering, at great cost in funds and labour, but the periodic

1.

Dodgen, R.A. (2001). Controlling the Dragon: Confucian Engineers and the Yellow River in Late Imperial China. Honolulu: University of Hawai’i Press.

2.

Economy, E. C. (2004). The River Runs Black: The Environmental Challenge to China’s Future. Ithaca, New York: Cornell University Press.

3.

Elvin, M. (2004). The Retreat of the Elephants: An Environmental History of China. New Haven: Yale University Press.

4.

Lang, G. (2002a). Forests, floods, and the environmental state in China, Organisation and Environment 15,109-130.

5.

Lang, G. (2002b). Deforestation, floods, and state reactions in China and Thailand. In Arthur Mol, Frederick Buttel (Eds), The Environmental State Under Pressure (pp. 195-220). Amsterdam: Elsevier Science.

6.

Shi J. (2012, February 3). Dead fish, toxic drinking water… now for the human toll. South China Morning Post, pp. A4.

7.

Vörösmarty, C.J., et al. (2010). Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. Nature 30, 555-561.

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In addition to the economic costs and benefits, rivers also contain biodiversity and rare species whose value cannot be calculated, and many river valleys include landscapes whose value for us is not captured only by the income from tourists.

destruction of dams and dykes by major floods was inevitable. River officials were usually blamed for failing in their duties.1 The infrequency of such disasters unfortunately leads to long periods of over-confidence.

Indeed, modern man has gotten so confident of his ability to control rivers and river systems through damming, elaborate construction methods and irrigation control techniques that it takes a disaster to shock a state into action. This happened in China in 1998 when a major flood along the Yangtze River killed thousands of people, destroyed five million houses, and devastated sixty million acres of farmland. The devastation was attributed by scientists partly to deforestation, which increased runoff from surrounding hills during rainstorms, and led to increased silting of river beds and a reduced capacity to handle runoff and river surges.

The central government subsequently banned logging around most of the rivers and tightened the regulations and penalties for illegal logging,4 a sequence which has also occurred in other countries such in Thailand.5 The state’s response in China was effective because the central government had the institutional capacity and political determination to impose limits on forest-exploitation throughout the entire network of rivers within the country, and to pay for the costs (including reforestation) from central funds.

Some other countries unfortunately still lack the coordination, funds, and infrastructure to achieve this kind of result.

But China’s rivers, like those of many other countries, continue to be despoiled and degraded by rapid economic development. In a classic ‘tragedy of the commons’, rivers have become nearly-free sewers, and many of them are heavily polluted by industrial waste and agricultural runoff.2 Cities install pollution-control and sewage-treatment facilities along the rivers, but are foiled by weak local enforcement, until major river-pollution disasters prompt the state to take more aggressive action.6 The sequence is typical:

weak control over bad practices such as deforestation and river pollution, followed by disasters, then followed (belatedly) by state action. This is inadequate, and ensures further disasters.

Rivers must be studied and managed from an interdisciplinary perspective, and the full costs and benefits of rivers must be assessed for all of the cities and societies along a river. In addition to the economic costs and benefits, rivers also contain biodiversity and rare species whose value cannot be calculated, and many river valleys include landscapes whose value for us is not captured only by the income from tourists. But these “softer” aspects of rivers and their ecosystems are often at odds with the modern way of economic costing. We simply do not have enough informed debates about these calculations, or about these values.

Rivers have to be treated as precious resources which must be studied, monitored, and managed from headwaters to deltas. The starting point for such management of rivers is respect for their complexity, which must lead to much more extensive research. The key to proper management is to institutionalise that respect in authority.7 However, this is difficult for rivers that cross national boundaries. Current multi-national river-management systems are typically too weak to ensure fair upstream and downstream distribution of the benefits of those rivers, including in particular the full upstream and downstream costs of dams along those rivers.

I believe that we do not respect rivers enough, and we are despoiling too many of them in the pursuit of short-term and often localised advantages which bear longer-term risks and costs.

Dr. Graeme Lang is a Professor in the Department of Asian and International Studies at the City University of Hong Kong. He can be reached at Graeme.lang@cityu.edu.hk · Issue 04/2012 · 51

Children’s psychological reactions to flooding

thinking altruistically about those who were worse off than they were.

By the end of the second phase, most children, even the child victims who had been trapped in Lincoln High School, had managed to cope with the terror of the disaster. Very few suffered from PTSD, and there was a good deal of exemplary resiliency to be seen, including the altruistic helping of others. There were few new mental disorders as a result of the disasters.

The most strained emotional reactions seemed to come from those, like Sylvia, who was psychologically troubled before the disaster. As time goes on, the children’s demographic factors became more salient. It is imperative to consider the general category of children within a more specific and detailed developmental framework, defining the various symptoms in terms of different ages, and taking cultural variations into account.

Pre-adolescent children of both genders react much as their significant

by Lewis Aptekar adult figures do, and if children are separated from them, they are much more vulnerable. Adolescents react much as their parents do and follow the phases presented above.

Several therapeutic approaches to children and adolescents exist: psyor the African-American residents of McClellanville, South Carolina, Hurricane Hugo did not come as a surprise. On the morning of chopharmacology when appropriate, desensitisation for fear responses, September 22, 1989, televised weather reports made it unmistakably clear and expressive techniques. One technique that has helped children from that Hugo was as inevitable as it was powerful. It was late in the afternoon 3 to 16 years of age begins with the child expressing the impact of the when the families left their homes and went to Lincoln High School, the trauma through projective drawings and story-telling. Then, the therapist helps the child move away from fantasy to more direct expression of his designated emergency shelter.

The cafeteria was filled with approximately two hundred families, includ- pain. Eventually the child is asked to talk about the "worst moment" of the ing about three hundred children. At 11:50 pm that evening, the tidal surge, trauma.

Considering that children perceive and react to disasters in very different which reached approximately 18 feet (5.5 metres), overtook the school.

Water began pouring into the cafeteria. Within minutes it had reached peo- ways from adults and even adolescents, it is very important that their ways ple's knees. When it reached their waists, they lifted the cafeteria tables up of thinking and coping be understood in advance of designing effective disonto the stage, constructing their own high ground. Meanwhile the water aster relief programmes. Mental health programmes and policy recommencontinued to rise. People on the stage put chairs on top of the tables as a dations should take into account several mediating factors including the age last-ditch effort against the onslaught of the rapidly rising water. Still the and gender of children, their relationship to their parents, and the backwater rose. Thirty minutes later, the water reached chest level. Parents who ground and history of the community. Children from communities with were standing on the tables on the stage lifted their children over their heads, stronger and more stable family bonds and community ties tend to display resting them on their shoulders. Paula, a 33-year-old mother, said, “I gave higher rates of resilience compared to those without, as in the case of McClellanville. For example, at the same time Hurricane Hugo hit the East my daughter a last goodbye, never expecting to see her again."

Miraculously, forty-five minutes after the tidal surge, with very little Coast of the US, the Loma Prieta Earthquake erupted in California. This margin of freedom left, the water stopped rising. There is no doubt that the author worked in a small town by the name of Watsonville, about 90 minchildren and the parents in the school that day had an experience "outside utes south of San Francisco. Although the disasters were comparable in of the normal course of human events" (American Psychiatric Association terms of the size of the population hit, the children of Watsonville were far 1987: 247), and might well be expected to have developed post-traumatic more traumatised and terrified than the children in McClellanville. The author noticed that in contrast to McClellanville’s tight community bonds, stress disorder (PTSD). In fact, few of the children did suffer from PTSD. Research conducted on the children’s psychological reactions to flood- Watsonville had strained and fragmented relations among the different local ing, with the help of the National Science Foundation and the Natural ethnic groups, and a higher incidence of mental disorders. Research on the community after the disaster showed that the children of Watsonville were Hazards Research and Information Center, yielded some insights.

The children’s reactions can be broken down into times periods. During more traumatised than those in McClellanville. the first phase, the children felt the full fear of the disaster and were, like 15-year-old Elmira (who bicycled on flat tires to check on her parents), Lewis Aptekar is Professor of Counselor Education at San Jose State reduced to anxiety and mental confusion. The second phase began when the University in California, and Consultant to disaster management confusion subsided. Then pre-adolescent children like Jessica, 12, began organisations, particularly in regard to children. Dr. Aptekar can be reorganising their thinking by distorting or denying the stressful events and reached at laptekar@email.sjsu.edu

F

1.

Aptekar, L. (1994). Environmental disasters in global perspective. New York: G. K. Hall/Macmillan.

2.

Aptekar, L. (1991). The Psycho-social Process of Adjusting to Natural Disasters (Working Paper No. 70). Natural Hazards Research and Applications Center, Institute of Behavior Science, University of Colorado.

3.

Aptekar, L. (1990). A comparison of the bi-coastal disasters of 1989. Behavior Science Research, 24, 73-104.

4.

Aptekar, L. & Boore, J. (1990). The emotional effects of disaster on children. International Journal of Mental Health, 19(2), 77-90.

52 · Issue 04/2012 ·

About IWP, The WaterLeader and Global-is-Asian Launched at the first Singapore International Water Week (SIWW) in 2008, an annual water conference run by the Public Utilities Board (PUB) of Singapore, the Institute of Water Policy (IWP) is a research institution within the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore (NUS). In four years, IWP is growing as a centre for conducting water policy research, education initiatives, and public dialogues particularly within Asia, and increasingly around the world.

Today, IWP boasts a full-time interdisciplinary research staff that conducts state-of-the-art research and policy analysis, and collaborates with renowned international researchers on projects relating to water security, water governance, and other related subjects. The research outcomes have helped in waterrelated decision-making in public and private sector agencies, and enhanced efficiency in water governance and management. IWP has also helped advance the knowledge and skills of employees in public, private and non-profit organisations through professional and executive development programmes. It is also one of the strategic partners of SIWW. PUB continues to be a strong supporter of IWP's research and development.

Alongside the strong chorus of practitioners and industry engines that dominate SIWW, IWP contributes to the event by bringing and showcasing academic voices to the conference. We are pleased and proud to present our fourth issue, which focuses on flooding events.

In this special issue, The WaterLeader is disseminated with the school’s quarterly magazine, Global-is-Asian, as a hybrid issue. The Focus section of Global-is-Asian covers other water issues apart from flooding events. The focus is on water security and governance. We include two case studies, one on the clean-up of the Singapore River, the other, a sanitation project in Yangon.

Spectrum touches on current affairs and In-depth features longer analysis on issues of our time. This issue, Global-is-Asian focuses on the trajectory of Indonesia, and the growth model in Asia. Hugo Bänziger writes on the vulnerable business model we see today, while Oliver Lacey-Hall outlines what Asia needs to do to be better prepared for natural disasters.

· Issue 04/2012 · 53