/Northwest_Futures_2030

Northwest Futures 2030: Interim Scenarios Report, Final Draft

The purpose of this report This report contains 4 scenarios that have been developed by Forum for the Future in partnership with NWDA and with the input of a wide range of stakeholders. They have been used to review the previous RES and RSS to establish which elements are fit for the future and should be taken forward into the RS2010. The intention is to now use them to challenge the robustness of the new RS2010 for a range of possible futures. Forum for the Future will then provide a final report on the whole process.

Why do we use scenarios?

• The future is uncertain – the last two years have been a very clear reminder of our inability to see what is coming. Scenario planning is a way of discussing complex future issues in a clear and structured way, to identify and prioritise risks and opportunities. Scenarios are tools that we use to help people think about the different possibilities in the future - they are not an outcome in themselves. The aim is to challenge perceptions about what the future holds and encourage people to consider uncertainty when creating strategy.

There are several important things to consider when reading the scenarios: • They are just useful stories. They are not predictions and there is no such thing as a “right” scenario. The future may contain elements from of all of them or none of them (though this is very unlikely). The important thing is to use the scenarios to stretch thinking and challenge assumptions.

• The scenarios should be plausible, consistent and interesting stories about the future.

They have to be quite short to be useful and therefore cannot be hugely detailed. The important thing is that they contain enough detail to be interesting and believable.

• The aim is to help people imagine a future that is very different from today. You might not agree with the content of all scenarios but for the sake of the process you should suspend all judgment. No-one can predict the future and our assumptions are constantly challenged by developments.

• This is a final draft of the scenarios. They are not going to change substantially but we would still welcome any feedback before the end of January 2010.

If you want a quick reminder of the method we used to develop the scenarios then please go to the appendix at the back of this document.

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How to use the scenarios?

Here are some suggestions of how you could use the scenarios whilst reading the RS2010:

Exercise 1: • Read the scenarios in full and make short notes that help you distinguish the four different futures. If you pressed for time you might want to randomly pick 2. The important thing is to get the basic differences mapped out.

• Then take elements of the RS2010 that are of particular interest to you and test them against each of the scenarios e.g. does this element makes sense/work in each scenario? If not – why? How might it be changed to work in more of the scenarios? What is missing from this part of the strategy? You could draw up a table to check off the elements against the scenarios.

• Any element of the strategy that fails in all scenarios definitely needs reconsideration.

Any that works in all (which is pretty unusual in a process like this) is very robust.

Exercise 2: • Read one scenario thoroughly until you are familiar with the world. Focus on one area of the strategy at a time – using the top level headings. What would be the best strategic elements for success in this area in this scenario? How does this compare to what has been written in the RS2010? What elements that you have developed for the scenario could be transferred into the RS2010

There are numerous other ways to use the scenarios. The most important thing is to use them to challenge your own assumptions about what the future might hold and use this to help make informed decisions about what should be in the RS2010.

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The Scenario Axis This is the scenario axis that was developed during the workshops (see Appendix 1). The result is four very different worlds based on some of the most uncertain and important factors driving change in the region.

availability of finance

more money

1.

More money & a more co-operative society

More money & a more individualistic society

collective

individual

Less money & a more co-operative society

3.

2.

Less money & a more individualistic society

less money

4.

collective vs individual

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Scenario 1: We’re better off together This is a scenario where there is good access to finance but people are more individualistic. There is a strong economy built on the growth of clean tech industries and a resurgent agriculture sector and the public sector is powerful and a large employer. High taxes pay for the vast improvement in public services. Public transport is resurgent and the north is reaping the benefit of the two new high-speed rail lines. Urban areas are the most popular places to live due to the quality of the infrastructure. Not everyone is happy with the ‘nanny-state’.

What is the economic situation?

The drawn out recovery from the 2009 recession provided a long enough pause in the pursuit for economic growth for society to consider alternative measures of progress. Individuals have suffered from the inevitable cuts in public funding that followed the government bailout. Once the economy finally began to recover there were assurances that this would never happen again and there followed a period of heavy investment in public services and infrastructure.

To fund this investment the government hiked up the majority of tax rates to nearly 50 percent. Whilst not all areas of the UK are thriving, the majority have a good basic level of public services. Even with the improvements in health, education and transport services many still resent the cost to individuals.

The economy has been growing slowly for over a decade, built on the back of a healthy clean tech sector. Areas of the northwest previously in industrial decline, such as West Cumbria, have benefitted from investment in this industry sector. Keen to avoid the return to boom and bust, government and Northwest Futures 2030: Interim Scenarios Report, Final Draft

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business have worked well together to deliver ‘smart growth’. The Liberal Democrat/Green coalition government has promised to ‘never mistake speed for progress’.

The ‘pensions crisis’ dominated government spending in the late 2010s – there were mass protests at attempts to phase out the state pension as people were reeling from the hammering their pensions took during the 2009 recession. The Government was forced to retain the state pension but over time it has morphed to support more flexible working. People now work later into their life but can be more flexible at times when they need to care for their families or retrain. ‘Total contribution’ schemes have replaced ‘final salary’ schemes in the private sector. their gas central heating and have switched to electrical heaters during cold spells.

Electrical energy efficiency was a big concern during the years of ‘the switchover’ (away from oil and gas, 2009-2018) but has slackened since 2020 when some spare capacity was added to the national grid and an affordable means of large scale electricity storage was introduced (using molten salt); product designers in 2025 concentrate much more on minimising water and resource use when doing life-cycle analysis.

Where do we live?

Government has promoted urban living to cope with high population density. This has required significant investment in services and a combination of active social engineering and careful planning to create healthy mixed communities. It has taken considerable time and effort to push through the required changes to neighbourhood structures in Liverpool and Manchester. Knocking down dilapidated council flats and replacing them with mixed social housing and private dwellings begun several years ago and has helped to reduce ‘ghettos’ and improve social cohesion.

In late 2010 Manchester became the first UK city to deploy a trees-based city cooling policy. By 2020 the tree-planting, which included a new urban orchards programme, had been completed and Manchester was named European Capital of Comfort because of the pleasant environment, easy living and relatively comfortable temperatures.

The emission restrictions imposed on all private dwellings in 2015 caused numerous protests, particularly from those with older houses. Although a variety of financial mechanisms were in place to help people retro-fit their homes, it wasn’t until several years later that people really felt the benefits of the scheme.

International freight remains strong and is a necessary way of moving food around from countries with good harvests to those with poor supplies. Airships have made a comeback and are mainly used for this.

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How do we live?

People in their 20s and 30s have started to move around less – often preferring to stay in a region for higher education and their first job. As quality of life increased in cities and remote working really took off there was less need to relocate when changing jobs, and as a result many had the opportunity to become more rooted in their communities. Crime levels are lower than 2009, something largely attributed to the improved social cohesion and the less transient communities in cities.

There is a strong grow your own culture and those who do not have space often belong to farm coop groups or landshare schemes in rural Lancashire and Cumbria, which also provide a system for those who would rather pay than dig. Time-banking schemes exchange work on the farms at peak times for a discount on food for those less well off. There is a continual drive for ‘British’ seasonal food but entrepreneurs have tapped into a need for something a bit more adventurous and have found innovative, low carbon ways to grow exotic foods that have become prohibitively expensive to import.

Food is more expensive, taking up a larger portion of income. The increased cost of processed food, driven up by resource prices and restricted access to ingredients like palm oil, has had a positive impact on health. Incidence of lifestyle diseases such as diabetes has declined. There is strong state support to help obese people exercise and lose weight social pressure to take up these schemes.

Many resent the reduced independence and decry the ‘nanny state’ seeking to live outside the system - the ritual burning of ID cards has become a symbolic rejection of state intervention.

How do we travel/get around?

The Government had invested heavily in public transport prior to the introduction of personal carbon credit quota scheme and the infrastructure survived the massive increase in use. The rail network received the greatest investment and an intelligent transport system means that you can travel almost anywhere in the country very efficiently by public transport.

In 2024 the UK’s first high-speed rail line linked Manchester and Liverpool to both Glasgow and London – providing a gateway to the rest of Europe opened. This was followed in 2027 and 2029 by links from London to Leeds and Cardiff.

Individual car ownership has plummeted, overtaken by car club membership for the first time last year.

Rural villages and business often have a web-based system to co-ordinate and share journeys. Car fleets became a costly burden that most companies ditched as the quality of video-conferencing came on leaps and bounds in the 2010s. Large companies use a pool of electric cars.

How are we managing climate change and energy?

Climate change targets have gradually become more stringent as the impacts have become more

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apparent including severe heat waves in the South east in 2012, 2015 and 2018. Scientists are concerned that the action taken is too little too late but agree that the correct measures are now in place to avoid the very worst impacts.

The UK has started to move away from nuclear after a revolution in storage technology made renewables a more viable option. This was helped by large investment in R&D in the US, the benefits of which have spread to the UK. The Northwest contributes large amounts of renewable energy, through wind and tidal power. However many schemes, such as the Mersey and Morecambe Bay tidal-power plants, have created a huge amount of controversy. The EU has invested in solar power in North Africa and this provides much additional energy to EU states.

Demand management is a top government priority. Community management schemes, that intelligently monitor and distribute energy locally, have taken off in the last decade. They started out as a small-scale service that was paid for in wealthier communities, but gradually it became clear that it should be rolled out nationally with government assistance to assist the vulnerable and reduce demand. Early systems were vulnerable to abuse and manipulation by the disenfranchised, protesting about supporting others, but security and design have reduced incidents of ‘energy hacking’.

There was a decrease in energy demand but personal carbon quotas were introduced in 2020 to scale up the change. This was only politically feasible (Footnote) after extreme weather became a regular feature of life in the UK. The quotas are now an accepted way of life and the only grumblings are about the slow pace of prosecutions for infringements.

What are the other environmental issues?

Protected areas, including the region’s National Parks, are under pressure from increased domestic tourism, though this has boosted rural economies.

EU countries have co-operated to develop a water grid across Europe. This has helped earn considerable revenue for the northwest as southern European countries become more desperate for water supplies.

It has been 5 years since the global marine act reduced trawler fishing by 90% but many fish stocks have failed to recover. Fish has been rationed in the UK, and many other European countries since 2020 to prevent the wealthy monopolising the limited supply and diverting it from regions that depend on fish protein.

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Where do we work and learn?

The market for retrofitting housing with energy efficient technologies is booming – building on previous successes in the construction and advanced engineering sectors. A spray on insulating film that also generates solar electricity has become a global hit.

Social enterprise is a mainstream business model and many of the traditional ‘purely for profit’ firms have refocused their new product and service development on ‘sustainable services’ and improving well-being. Share – A – Shed, a collaboration between a small social enterprise from Liverpool and a major national tool hire firm, has just set up its first branches in continental Europe after a rapid expansion in the UK. Sales of cheap electrical goods have plummeted as consumers demand access to longer lasting products. The Share-a-Shed model, with well-maintained products available locally for a small fee, is being replicated in other sectors.

Northern England is growing in popularity as a place to live and work. Its climate, natural environment, cultural life and efficient communications technology have all helped boost its profile and attractiveness.

Farming is booming in the North West. The demand for food produced in the UK has driven investment in advanced soil management and biotechnology. With the combination of good conditions and advances in technology, the British farming industry has had a renaissance.

Landowners have also benefited from something of a boom in the value of green infrastructure and natural materials. Diversification, once seen as a desperate measure to prevent farms going under, has recently led to serious profits as farmers and landowners sell sheep’s wool insulation, coppice wood and high value crops for natural beauty products alongside becoming big players in the energy and flood defence markets.

Even in times of improved international co-operation, enforcement of hard negotiated resource allocation agreements provides an ongoing market for the defence industry. However new measures of prosperity that focus on quality of life rather than GDP mean that it is not seen as priority.

How do we play?

The leisure industry is booming – with less focus on consumerism people are spending more time socialising, eating, drinking and seeing live music and cinema. The ‘experience economy’ has grown, providing anything from hang-gliding to creating your own piece of ‘last a life-time clothing’.

Digital media and creative sectors in Manchester and Liverpool have held their own in the face of stiff competition from China and India.

Volunteering is more popular and people are encouraged to contribute to their community through incentives linked to the new pension system – voluntary work can qualify for pension credits.

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What is happening in the world?

Led by France and Germany, several countries have adopted the idea of smarter growth. Governance systems and institutions are in place to focus on global issues but the biggest battle continues to be over carbon emissions. India and China have invested heavily in renewables, but are partly reliant on coal and oil to meet the demands of rapid development. As US and European emissions peaked in 2015 they have a stronger negotiating position and are pushing for rapid change.

Africa is tapping into its huge solar potential and exporting power. Whilst this is providing a much needed economic boost it is slightly offset by the lower agricultural exports which have been hit by drought and climate taxes. However, the export of solar, like oil before it, is causing resentment in the countries of origin who see little gain. The DC power line from Morocco to the EU was disrupted in 2020 causing shortages across the region.

What is the role of the public sector?

A strong public sector plays a significant role in society. The drive for greater efficiency has stimulated innovation and there is greater integration across the public sector to deliver a low carbon society.

Whilst the improved infrastructure and services are welcomed, there is growing resentment at attempts to employ social engineering to tackle a wide range of ‘anti-social’ behaviours from climate change to over-eating.

The NHS is reinvigorated and provides a wide range of services, although with a greater focus on preventative health-care.

The public sector has moved back into many areas that had been privatised such as transport, communications infrastructure and energy. In many of these areas they now work in partnership with businesses and social enterprises but are seen as the key partner after the financial instability in the earlier part of the century.

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Scenario 2: A question of privilege This is a scenario where there is readily available finance for both the public and private sector.

The recovery in the UK economy was driven by a boom in new industries such as carbon capture and storage. There is a belief that technology will solve many of the problems faced by society and we can continue to behave as we have. As a result there are relatively high levels of consumption and people are more likely to act in their own interests rather than the wider interests of society.

What is the economic situation?

Consumer confidence is high. There are signs of trouble but after a relatively quick recovery from the big recession there is a renewed belief that market based solutions will bring about a wealthy and sustainable world. As a result, taxes are relatively low and government does not intervene too much in the market, relying on the private sector to deliver.

The result is a fast paced global economy, beset by short-termism, but seen as entrepreneurial and competitive. Lessons have been learnt from the crash 20 years before but no-one is entirely sure how sustainable the current model is. There is a pervading feeling of insecurity, which both stimulates creativity and causes a great deal of stress and market volatility. The future is bright and full of possibilities but not everyone is convinced.

It may be an entrepreneurial world but it is not a particularly stable or equitable one. Some relish the frenetic pace of life, if you have made it then life is good, but it takes a huge toll and society looks increasingly fractured. Those with purchasing power are in control especially as continued resource Northwest Futures 2030: Interim Scenarios Report, Final Draft

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constraints have pushed commodity prices higher and higher. The gap between the rich and the poor is growing, adding to the tension. There is a distinct polarisation of business and services for those with money and those without.

Where do we live?

People go where the jobs and the money are and are therefore less likely to be loyal to their community or cultural background. There is a reduced sense of place. As a result the regions have ceased to exist or are not really recognised anymore. Cities are highly competitive with each other and the regional divisions have almost been replaced by the rise of city-states. Cities are regularly ranked using familiar criteria such as transport etc but now include categories such as resilience to climate change and access to resources. Several of cities in the Northwest have risen up the rankings thanks to a relatively favourable climate compared to London, which is now uncomfortably hot for much of the summer.

The number of one-person households has continued to grow with a mobile middle class moving between dense urban neighbourhoods in different cities. However, there is a move out to the countryside for those who can afford it – but rural Britain is harder to find amongst the high-tech agriculture and climate change affected countryside.

How do we live?

There are fewer people in basic poverty but there is inequality both within and between areas. The individualistic and consumerist nature of society has boosted creativity and entrepreneurialism but has also cause a small rise in crime – possibly a signal of further disruption to come. In a world of haves and have not, the impulse is to take from those who have.

The ongoing disparity has resulted in Robin Hood style crimes with hacker syndicates using sophisticated tools to steal from the wealthy and anonymously redistribute the money to the vulnerable. The continued pressure on children in world of relentless consumption is producing a generation of disaffected and unhappy youth. The retail sector has been startled by the massive popularity of an online campaign to buy nothing for a year started by a 14yr old.

The richest live in clearly defined districts, not so much gated communities but rather distinct sociopolitical enclaves. Image and lifestyle are very important and there is a stigma attached to those who are not big earners. The excluded seem even more excluded and there is a growing lack of social mobility.

The additional food that has to be grown in the UK has come from development of the greenbelt by big agriculture using GM and the creation of massive greenhouses that use the latest technology to really push productivity per acre. Agricultural subsidies have been phased out and although imported food has declined dramatically you can get anything you want if you are willing to pay.

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As with many other sectors there is a two-tier system in food procurement. Quality supermarkets provide luxuries to those than can afford them and then the needs of the rest are met by a range of shopping choices. Shopping can be delivered by most environmentally friendly option using advanced logistics but a large proportion drive to the supermarket or consumerless stores that automatically prepare a personalised shop for you to pick up.

There has been an improvement in general health and a reduction in some lifestyle diseases, largely due to drugs and medical interventions rather than changes in behaviour. However, there has been a dramatic rise in stress related illnesses.

How do we travel/get around?

Most people own a car or two but the majority of these are now electric or very efficient hybrids. Cars are generally smaller than in the early part of the 21st century but there are more on the roads. Tata has brought its approach to car making over from India and made small electric vehicles affordable for all.

There has been investment in road infrastructure but congestion is still a problem. The prices on privatised roads have to be continually increased to keep usage down. Government has started to complain that it cannot afford to run public transport on these routes.

Public transport has improved but has not had the investment needed to keep up with a growing population and the demands of a low carbon economy. While functional in city centres it is looking pretty shabby elsewhere.

How are we managing climate change and energy?

Mitigation Having done too little too late the global community has bought into the idea of massive scale geoengineering schemes as the major solution to climate change. Unwilling to make big personal sacrifices the world is heavily dependent on removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and carbon capture and storage.

Large scale investment in this area has given the UK a lead over other EU countries despite some high profile failures and occasionally dramatic knock on impacts. There is little time to test whether these solutions are going to work in the long term and the scientific community is split on the effectiveness of the methods being employed.

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Adaptation Climate change is with us. The UK has seen average temperature increases of almost 2ÂşC and the impacts seem to be growing day by day. There are ambitious schemes to make urban neighbourhoods more hospitable through mass greening and passive cooling systems.

People are moving away from the worst affected places, i.e. cities affected by water stress and the greatest extremes in climate, and heading for parts of the country with more clement conditions.

This is one of the main reasons that London has begun to lose its lustre – just too hot in summer and suffering from regular water shortages.

Those who cannot afford to move are left to deal with the impacts and the worst affected areas are like climate change ghettos. As the wealthy move out, the property prices go down and the infrastructure suffers.

More advanced modelling of climate change impacts has begun to influence residential patterns across the UK as the nature of future impacts become clear. Rural and urban planners are trying to design in more resilience to climate change impacts. As a result adaptation technologies such as advanced irrigation are big business Agriculture has to adapt to less certain weather patterns after regular harvest failures. Some do this by increasing diversity in what they plant but the majority are going down the high-tech approach and using large greenhouses to remove weather from the equation.

Energy The private sector pushed government hard to accelerate planning for large-scale low carbon centralised energy projects. Due to the costs involved in these projects this is an area where the government has agreed to break with standard policy and intervene in the market to guarantee prices and ensure return on investment.

The nuclear renaissance has gathered speed and all the old plants have been replaced with new power stations currently being constructed across the country. This has strengthened the power of the incumbents and the energy distribution market is one area where entrepreneurs are struggling.

Midsize renewables has continued to suffer due to NIMBYism but there has been continued investment in sourcing renewables from large installations abroad such as CSP in Africa.

There have been improvements in energy efficiency but they often outweighed by levels of consumption. Energy supply and demand seem to be diverging and carbon emissions have not dropped to the necessary levels but there is a strong belief that the market can solve the energy Northwest Futures 2030: Interim Scenarios Report, Final Draft

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problem if externalities are accounted for correctly.

What are the other environmental issues?

The local environment is suffering from the impacts of climate change and increasing environmental degradation. There are sections of parkland or managed wilderness that are maintained, often at great cost due to the pressure on land and resources. Access to these is often restricted and only for those who can afford it. Biodiversity has decreased in the countryside due to the combined pressures of intensive agriculture and land pressure.

Water is scarce in many parts of the country and, despite careful management, is becoming more and more expensive. There are some concerns that wealthy are paying for more than their fair share – leading to emergence of ‘water poverty’ and there has even been the odd incident of water robbery.

Where do we work and learn?

Unemployment is low with relatively more people employed in private sector, especially in new carbon based industries such as carbon capture and storage, which is now a major employer.

The big concern is that there is no need for the mobile workforce to be tied to the UK and high skilled people are leaving to follow the money, the interesting jobs and avoid the worst of climate change.

Global cities vie with each other to attract the best workers and no country is leading the way in the creative industries, as they are no longer location dependent.

Apart from basic service jobs employment options for the low skilled are very limited. There has been a revival of high-end crafts for the developing markets in India and China, playing on the British heritage in globalised world.

Climate resilience is a key factor in shaping where people live and work. Low-lying coastal cities and those most affected by weather extremes are increasingly suffering from low occupancy rates.

There are a greater diversity entrepreneurs and start-ups and more consolidation at top. Large corporations swiftly buy up the best new ideas. There is a clearly defined premier league for business – those who have worked out how best to use the competitive and networked world. Manufacturing has initially declined in the UK but there has been a renaissance thanks to a relatively favourable climate and regions with low water stress.

How do we play?

It can seem like quite a selfish and lonely society with people constantly searching for individual experiences to add meaning. Sport and active leisure are more popular but access to the best facilities are sometimes restricted to those who can pay. Some businesses have even bought up pristine

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areas of the northwest in the name of conservation and set up private parks, selling stakes to wealthy investors.

Extreme sports continue to grow and works are underway to alter natural landscapes to deliver a more exciting environment e.g. changing rivers to create rapids.

What is happening in the world?

Global companies are innovating hard to ensure that their products can cross the globe using low carbon methods of transportation. Those countries and companies that have failed to deliver lower carbon solutions are not attractive for business investment and gradually falling off the world stage.

Resource constraints have hampered progress but most of the BRIC nations are now major players.

China and India have both moved to reduce their dependence on external markets but there is demand for top of the range goods from other countries for their burgeoning middle class.

What is the role of the public sector?

There is money available for the public sector but it is only really used as a safety net where government has decided that the private sector cannot intervene. Quite a few public services have been replaced by the private sector acting in enlightened self-interest. Frustrated by unimaginative graduates, businesses take it upon themselves to collaborate and run new academies that ensure a workforce capable of dealing with a fast moving world. Employers keen to reduce the cost of sick days have health plans in place. The real concern is pensions as the state pension is all but emptied leaving those without a private system in a dire situation.

People prefer to have a private service as a first option. As a result there are gaps in the system and the vulnerable can suffer. Service is particularly poor in remote countryside where it makes little sense for business to invest, but many services can now be accessed online. Again, it seems like a two tier service. If you can pay for it then you can get it. The wealthy can access services where they want to and there has been an increase in concierge style doctors who are paid by visit.

As the private sector has been given carte blanche by the government there is a concern that communities are no longer involved in decision making. The planning process has been speeded up to deliver massive energy projects to cope with demand for low carbon energy.

The theory is that government is just there to facilitate but there is a constant tension as it is forced to regulate due to environmental imperatives.

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Scenario 3: Sticking together through thick and thin This is a scenario where there is less finance for both the public and private sector. The economy is going through a period of very low or no growth and many are less well off from a financial point of view. However there is a renewed sense of community and people are more willing to collaborate to achieve goals and happy to share services.

What is the economic situation?

Economic growth has been slowing since the early 2020’s when Europe began its decline into a lengthy depression, mostly due to expenditure on climate change adaptation as a result of poor carbon regulation in the preceding decades. The UK has adapted to low-growth and works collectively to sustain a good quality of life all the same. Regions are experimenting with alternative economic models, some are trialing a steady state economy, and many communities have adopted skills and produce trading as well as local currencies. Online and offline exchange schemes and bartering are common practice within and between communities.

State pension schemes correspond to National Public Service (NPS) points earned through community work undertaken in addition to day jobs.

Where do we live?

Buildings have become efficient multi-tasking hubs and are used as much as possible and shared by many organisations. As a result there has been a significant decline in the upkeep of public buildings as they are stretched to meet the demand.

Urban living has adapted significantly to enable a more self-sufficient way of living. Car parks have Northwest Futures 2030: Interim Scenarios Report, Final Draft

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been turned into community urban farms. Businesses offering to convert domestic patios into fertilised, rich soil specific for growing food have been thriving over the past decade. One in two gardens in Manchester has a greenhouse and seed germination is a compulsory module in Smart Living GCSE. There are often agreements to knock down fences and ‘share’ back gardens between neighbours to maximise the land use.

Sharing houses and spaces has become an efficient way of living. Modular spaces that allow for privacy but enable shared facilities, such as washing and composting are now the norm. Families have found ways to live together longer without cramping each others styles; kids stay at home longer as renting is costly; friends live together long into their thirties; moving house is expensive and disrupting so most people avoid it as much as possible.

How do we live?

The vast majority of people in the UK are closely affiliated with a specific local community. This strong sense of community grew out of the European Depression of the early 2020s during which the government subsidised local community engagement and rolled out the National Community Resilience Scheme (NCRS).

Reliance on community care and community services is at an all time high. All services that can be adequately provided by the community have been localised. The NHS, for example, provide only an “essential” health service: no plastic surgery; no lifestyle disease treatment (officially phased out in 2024 to much controversy); and to even further controversy no treatment is allocated for those over 90 years of age. As a result the community organises itself to provide services to its members. A thriving black market exists to compensate the reduced health service, causing no end of problems and accidental deaths – from ‘cheap-n-cheerful’ plastic surgery to unregulated drug use.

People have become more aware of and responsible for their health. Cycling provides many with daily exercise and the availability of seasonal, locally produced vegetables has made vegetarianism more popular. Stinging nettle “farm-plots” have sprung up on verges and patches of previously wasted land and they are sold locally as a cheap super-food. Marrow rum has become a popular and inexpensive homemade tipple since the availability of foreign liquors has diminished and those available are extortionate. Bee-keeping is a popular past-time for many.

Large supermarkets have evolved into delivery companies operating from central warehouses located in each region of the UK. These warehouses specialise in delivery of long-life products such as detergents, tin tinned food, dried food and cereals – as well as cheap processed food. Most communities have an online account and make monthly orders for all members, which arrive in one delivery to a community pick-up shop. Local and regional networks of businesses specialising in “short-life” products such as seasonal fruits and vegetables, meat and fish cater for most of the community’s culinary requirements.

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For most this has become a manageable way of life. They live healthy, fulfilled lives and split their time between community commitments, their work and their families. A marginalised group of the population refuse to let go of what they consider to be ‘the good old days’ and feel insecure and inferior when compared to the thriving economies of countries like China and Brazil. Absenteeism from community work is not uncommon nor there is a backlash against the constant collective spirit and lack of privacy.

How do we travel/get around?

People move around far less than they used to. Cross-regional public transport is expensive so only used from time to time. Communities tend to co-own a range of electric coaches, buses, mini-buses and vans, which are organised to provide local mobility via an advanced mobile booking platform.

Members of the community are also part of electric scooter clubs for short trips here and there.

Technology provides excellent communication and the UK’s free wireless networks (subsidised by government since 2016) ensure that everyone can access online and mobile resources liberally.

Global travel is a luxury and a great deal of thought and consideration goes into planning trips abroad. Flights to global destinations leave one of the UK’s 3 remaining airports, Heathrow, Glasgow & Manchester, once every few days depending on demand. The cost of flying enables middle class citizens to travel by plane roughly once every 3-4 years. Terminals 2&3 at Heathrow are videoconferencing business centres whilst domestic airports have all closed and near European destinations are no longer in demand.

The European high-speed rail boom of the 20-teens has resulted in rapid services across the continent. Though reasonably accessible, there journeys are expensive enough to minimise trips to once or twice a year for most.

How are we managing climate change and energy?

Reliance on centralised power is at an all time low as communities work hard to generate their own energy and use smart solutions to monitor their energy use to ensure efficiency. Overall energy consumption has been reduced by 30% since 2015 and 42% of the UK’s energy is sourced from renewables. Some regions have carbon regulated local energy start-ups selling cheaper energy to their communities.

Climate change adaptation is a large part of government focus and expenditure. Campaigns, incentives, subsidies and regulations on CO2 reduction have been the norm.

The UK adopted “Single Double Summer Time” (SDST) in 2017 to gain the longer hours of daylight in

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the evenings decreasing the need for artificial lighting and increasing the opportunity for leisure time at the end of the day.

What are the other environmental issues?

As anticipated in the early 2000’s water has become a major global issue affecting all countries in one way or another. The UK attempted to launch a major desalination programme in 2018, the failure of which contributed to the decline in the economy. It was finally abandoned in 2021 at a loss of over 100 billion pounds.

Water services were nationalised in 2023 at the height of the depression. The government has been debating a national water grid and even sales to Europe, but the investment required is too great.

Water shortages in Southern England are common as the UK struggles to transfer water from region to region in a cheap, efficient way. The water abundant regions of the North have been campaigning for years to be able to sell water to Europe to boost the regional economies.

Compulsory smart metering and incentives to harvest rain water have been in place for 3 years across the UK regions and most homes have two tanks and two cold water taps, one for consuming and one for everything else. Community rainwater harvesting has been successful and takes the pressure off the unreliable nationalised system.

Land management has been a major focus for the past decade and there have been many changes to land use during these years. Meat production has been reduced and diverse arable, seasonal farming has increased. Communities either run large-scale allotments or are connected farming co-operatives.

Where do we work and learn?

The vast majority of people have two jobs: one salary paid job; and one community job linked to a state pension plan. In 2022 the government imposed a four-day working week as part of the National Community Resilience Scheme – one day per week is spent working for the community in a role that best suits people’s skills. Community jobs range from local food production & delivery to healthcare, teaching and DIY services.

Remote working from local hubs and working from home is common practice and most do it at least once a week. The free wireless networks and enhanced mobile technology make this easy to organise and manage. Organisations tend to have enough office space for about 50% of their organisation and rely on remote and community working to regulate occupation of the space.

Working well into your seventies, particularly for the community is the norm. The healthy elderly population often leaves their paid jobs and retires into a part, or full-time community job/pension scheme.

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Life work skills are valued and vocational training has been encouraged by the state to support community living. Distance learning is popular, as are practical courses on bee keeping, orchard farming, rainwater harvesting, building maintenance, tailoring and so on. Community ‘intrepreneurs’ lead the way in new thinking on service delivery and prototyping new ways to meet everyone’s needs.

Social inclusivity has strengthened as communities greatly value people’s skills and contributions over religion, ethnic origin or social status.

How do we play?

The regional tourism industry has taken off. People readily make use of their natural surroundings and tend to spend holidays and weekends nearby or in their neighbouring regions. Quiet, ‘alone-time’ holidays are popular in contrast to the community-led lifestyle.

Regional and national itinerant events are extremely common – events, shows and festivals try to reach people rather than the other way round. Communities work as hard to ensure entertainment and leisure are accessible as they do to deliver periphery health services, albeit on limited funds. Local evening cinemas spring up in office spaces and public buildings as part of the UK Film Council’s ‘Films for all’ campaign enabling films to be streamed publically via the web.

There are 50% more local sports and leisure clubs now compared with 2010. Almost everyone is associated with a sport club of some kind and plays in local and/or regional tournaments. Over seventies cricket, ladies urban-roof golf and mixed-generation football have all become very popular!

What is happening in the world?

Global trade has slowed down significantly. Europe has been adjusting to the low-growth economy and finding ways to meet its needs nationally or from within the EU. This initially had a negative impact on the Asian export industry, but they too have adjusted and continue to trade amongst themselves. Some Europeans move to the booming Asian cities for a ‘better standard of living’ only to be disappointed by the individualistic, hectic lifestyle and most return home within few years. Some of more recent additions to the EU have struggled to implement low-growth strategies and are facing civil unrest and an increasingly fractured society.

What is the role of the public sector?

With limited funds and an almost steady state economy, there is no availability for public services beyond meeting very basic needs. Wherever possible, service delivery has been devolved to local communities. Communities and regions work with each other to trade skills, products and resources and to maintain shared infrastructure. Central government concentrates its efforts on providing basic health and education, climate change adaptation, meeting energy requirements, and boosting the UK economy as much as possible.

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Scenario 4: Looking after number one This is a society characterised by an economy in a prolonged recession with unemployment and underemployment at record highs. Society is deeply unequal and the general discontent has led to several civil riots. Those at the top end of society have profited from increased privatisation of public services and a resurgent agricultural sector. Those at the lower end survive on part-time jobs and the informal economy. Many choose to emigrate to the more buoyant Asian nations.

What is the economic situation?

The UK has been in recession since 2023 driven by a drawn out fuel crisis and the economic impacts of climate change. The impacts have been exacerbated by the protracted recovery from the recession of 2008, which the economy had only just recovered from.

Taxes are high just to maintain a basic level of infrastructure and cover areas such as defence, which have re-emerged as a priority due to the emphasis on accessing and protecting resources. The middle-classes feel that they put upon as they also pay for services privately such as healthcare, to ensure the best service possible.

Where do we live?

House building has been stop-start since 2010. In 2020 it briefly returned to the levels once seen in 2007 but the recession of 2023 meant this was short-lived. In an effort to cut costs, new houses are often prefabricated and built to demand.

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The days of the elderly remaining in large houses on their own are long gone. A lack of pension provision has forced them to sell or to share with others and often they provide childcare for their grandchildren in exchange for rent-free accommodation.

It is the energy efficiency of housing that distinguishes the wealthy from the less-well off. Given the government’s lackadaisical approach to enforcing energy efficiency measures, houses that were built to energy efficient standards and more resilient to extreme weather now command a premium price beyond the reach of the average buyer.

The public sector has not been able to invest in urban areas to maintain the revival of cities such as Liverpool and Manchester at the turn of the century. Some traditionally deprived areas have become populated by illegal immigrants living in derelict houses and the overall number of deprived areas has increased. Smaller towns and cities like Preston and Chester also have suffered from neglect.

The public sector has recognised the need to tackle the decline and has started to turn empty lots into allotments. They often need private security to protect any food grown.

There have been high levels of migration to the more affluent Asian nations over the past few years.

Companies that have relocated east have often taken their employees with them and family and friend networks have sprung up which have made migration eastwards much easier.

How do we live?

Society is composed of a minority of haves and plenty of have-nots. There is deep-seated resentment towards those who are doing well, and a general feeling of discontent with society in general. This has manifested in frequent riots in Manchester and Liverpool and alarming levels of crime. Army patrols are a frequent sight in those areas following the ‘heatwave’ riots of 2025 and 2028 which has left a total of 2000 dead. Gated communities are prevalent in the richer areas of cities and private security firms are thriving.

People feel safest with their own kind. Its possible to draw a map of Manchester and label areas – middle-class Asians, unemployed whites etc. There was a brief moment of hope in 2024 when a few progressive politicians started pushing towards a more collective way of living but it never really had the chance to take off as the economy collapsed. Now people will say that it’s a survival game and they haven’t the time or energy to think about their neighbours.

The rich-poor divide can also be seen in the rural areas. As land has been given back to food production or bio-fuels, more people have sought jobs in the sector than before. In some cases it is cheaper to hire people than to put fuel into vehicles and so people opt to work for limited pay and live in rural areas with get guaranteed access to food. With the cost of travelling increasing, only wealthy Northwest Futures 2030: Interim Scenarios Report, Final Draft

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can afford to the regular commute from the countryside to their place of employment. Some rural villages in Lancashire and Cumbria have become preserves of a wealthy elite and they often travel in commuter convoys after a spate of attacks by resentful youth.

Meat is seen as a luxury and the export of lamb, for example, to the richer Asian nations causes anger and resentment. The fast-food chain ‘Juicy Roots’ has demonstrated just how many ways there are to fry vegetables and have profited from the enforced vegetarian diet.

Despite the shift to vegetarianism many in city centres have a poor diet and a lack of exercise has resulted in an obese society as predicted. This has put the strain on a limited NHS and it is common to wait years for operations. This is compounded by the rise in diseases such as TB, which have been resurgent thanks to the lack of facilities and have spread rapidly through poorer communities.

The incidence of stress related illness is increasing in the general population and mental health problems are the second most common cause of disability. This has further exacerbated pressure on health services and social benefits.

Initially it seemed as if immigration had stabilised but a new wave of climate migrants has begun to arrive in the UK and this has stoked up resentment again. There are a number of established nationalist parties but these are vying for votes with newly established parties with even more extreme policies.

How do we travel/get around?

Public transport has never really had the investment it needed and it is often dangerous and unreliable.

This doesn’t stop it being used and overcrowding is common. Buses are the most popular form of public transport particularly commuter buses with space for working.

The transport of choice remains the car but the cost of fuel means that the car is only taken out for special occasions or emergency travel. The middle-class drive electric or hydrogen fuel cell cars and it is hoped that their cost will come down to a price within reach of the majority. There is an additional cost of using the road network to try and maintain the quality of the roads. It is calculated for each mile you travel, so even those with electric or hydrogen cars are reluctant to use them regularly or for long distances. At least congestion is not what it used to be.

As a result people tend to live near their work where possible, or they work remotely in market towns or villages with good ICT services. Many businesses have become more virtual with limited office space to cut down on fuel and the cost of modifying buildings to cope with more variable weather conditions.

The desire to travel is strong and people will save for years to afford one overseas trip. Regional airports are struggling and a number have already closed around the country.

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How are we managing climate change and energy?

There is growing sense of anger that more was not done in the previous decades to address climate change. The state of the economy made it politically unacceptable to invest money in long term solutions. The lack of adaptation planning has exacerbated the effects of climate change and cities can be uncomfortably hot in the summer months. Developments situated on flood plains have not had the investment needed to maintain or create flood defences. Those that can afford to have moved out. The remaining few have no option but to stay and hope the economy will improve and investment return before the next big flood.

The government made limited investments in the nuclear programme, which helped Cumbria’s nuclear industry, but it was not enough and energy is very expensive. Investing in large and mid sized renewables stalled in the recession and only wealthier areas who can afford to maintain and replace the failing infrastructure.

The national grid survives but it is unreliable. Those who can afford to pay have their regular supply supplemented by other sources such as generators – the rest have to make do with intermittent power.

Mealtimes are staggered and electricity is carefully managed during peak times to minimise disruption.

The wealthy tend to generate their own electricity and have spent thousands on creating energy efficient homes.

What are the other environmental issues?

The recession has temporarily halted environmentally destructive development projects but conservation work has taken a back-step with all resources available directed towards addressing climate change.

The lack of water has not hit the Northwest as hard as other regions but extreme flooding events have increased in frequency and affect everything from transport to agriculture. Summer water rationing is a fact of life but the occasional torrential downpours mean that there is usually access to grey water. Personal water towers are the latest ‘must-have’ but are subject to occasional sabotage. One landowner was recently prosecuted for diverting part of a river into his own estate.

Where do we work and learn?

Unemployment and underemployment seem to have been a feature of this world for so long that few can really remember a time when it wasn’t the norm. People are forced to work part-time and often well below their skill level in order to have any job. The informal economy has grown from lack of opportunities and low social benefit rates. Politicians have tried to push out a message of hope but there is widespread apathy and very low confidence in government delivering.

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A reluctance to travel too far for work has increased the numbers of SMEs based in local communities.

The poor economic situation has forced people to find new and creative ways of doing business. New rural enterprises offering locally grown food and alcohol are flourishing although they face competition from the black marketeers. Many businesses thrive in a virtual world including virtual lawyers, teachers and doctors. Entrepreneurs have to go it alone, support from the state is non-existent.

Businesses are lightly regulated and easy to set up. But it is not an easy operating environment - large business is held responsible for the poor state of the economy and the degraded environment and the consumer backlash is in full swing. Consumers are suspicious, demanding and fickle. Brand loyalty is hard won and easily lost.

How do we play?

More and more leisure time is spent in the virtual world. Almost 20% of teenagers spend more time in their ‘virtual lives’ than they do in their real lives and use their virtual work-life experience in their CVs. Those who don’t have access to sports facilities use in home training programs run by virtual instructors. ‘Premium-cisers’ are forced to exercise and lose weight by the health insurance companies.

Spending time in the countryside is a popular way to relax especially amongst the older generation.

Day trips to the surrounding national parks are extremely popular. Given the cost of fuel, areas with excellent national parks close by are much sort after.

What is happening in the world?

Most of the old western bloc countries have experienced a downturn of the past 20 years. Europe in particular has fared badly, unable to find its niche in the new world order. China and India have fared better by focussing on their large internal markets. Their strong relationship with African nations, forged in the early part of the century, has ensured access to resources – access that they vigourously defend.

What is the role of the public sector?

The public sector has taken a battering over the past 20 years. Reserves have shrunk and the 20122023 period of low growth was not enough to replenish them before the recession hit.

Local government provides more services as it is more efficient for them to allocate funding according to their area’s need. This has resulted in large differences in housing, education and social service provision across the country. In the Northwest the pressure on social services has reduced its benefit expenditure per capita and poorer sectors of society are often driven to squat in accommodation deserted after flooding.

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The NHS provides a more basic service and resources are often tied up regulating unregistered doctors practices which are set up by opportunistic migrant medical workers. The police service is underfunded there are a number of unscrupulous private security firms that have set up protection rackets in poor urban areas.

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Appendix 1: Brief overview of method Through a mixture of research and interviews, we identified approximately 550 possible future factors of change. These were prioritised into 100 factors by Forum for the Future. At the first workshop 40 important factors were identified by participants. These factors were placed along a scale from certain to uncertain. Below are the 10 most uncertain factors.

Top 10 most important and uncertain [votes for axis] • Further Devolution of the UK (within international context/link to localisation) [0] • Quality and type of employment [3] • 24/7 lifestyle and demands [0] • Availability of finance (private and public) [11] • Social Cohesion (values and impact on society) [5] • Access to services [1] • Global Stability [1] • Infrastructure resilience [5] • Collective vs Individual (acting as individual consumers or come together to create change) [6] • Energy security [2] Out of these 10 factors, attendees at the workshop then voted for the factors that they felt were most important in driving change. These were: • Availability of finance • Collective vs individual • Social cohesion • Infrastructure resilience It is quite useful to have an economic based factor and a cultural based factor so we decided to use the ‘Availability of finance’ and ‘Collective vs Individual’ as the axes of the scenarios. These would enable four contrasting scenarios to be constructed.

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more money

collective

availability of finance

individual

less money

collective vs individual

These were then fleshed out to start to paint more of a picture of what the individual scenarios would look like. availability of finance

more money

1.

More money & a more co-operative society

More money & a more individualistic society

collective

individual

Less money & a more co-operative society

3.

2.

Less money & a more individualistic society

less money

4.

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