Market Access and Specialization in Cash Crops: Vietnam’s Expected Gains from WTO Accession

Agence Française de Développement

Working Paper

December 2008

76

Market Access and Specialization in Cash Crops: Vietnam’s Expected Gains from WTO Accession

Barbara Coello, Paris School of Economics at the Laboratoire d’économie appliquée - Institut national de recherche agronomique (LEA -INRA), (barbara.coello@gmail.com)

Département de la Recherche

Agence Française de Développement 5 rue Roland Barthes 75012 Paris - France Direction de la Stratégie www.afd.fr Département de la Recherche

Disclaimer The analysis and conclusions of this document are those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect the official position of the AFD or its partner institutions.

Publications Director: Jean-Michel SEVERINO Editorial Director: Robert PECCOUD ISSN: 1954 -3131 Copyright: 4th quarter, 2008

Keyboarding/layout: Anne-Elizabeth COLOMBIER

© AFD Working Paper N°76 • Market Access and Specialization in Cash Crops: Vietnam • November 2008 2

Contents

1.

Abstract

4

Introduction

5

Data

7

Cash Crop Producers

7

1.1

Dataset

1.3

The Dynamics of Crop Specialization

10

Barriers to Entry

11

2.2

Modeling Participation in Cash Crop Production

12

3.

Gains from Specialization in Export Crops

15

Comparing Comparables

16

1.2 2.

2.1 2.3

Modeling Market Access

11

Results

3.1

Inference from Observed Income

3.3

Results

3.2

7

12 15

16

4.

Simulating an Improvement in Market Access Abroad

18

5.

Robustness of the Results

19

Conclusion

20

Bibliography

22

Appendices

24

© AFD Working Paper N°76 • Market Access and Specialization in Cash Crops: Vietnam • November 2008 3

Abstract

This paper discusses the link between trade liberalization

access to the export market according to each province’s

Farmers are differentiated between subsistence-oriented

remain in the export market is then related to the trade

and farmers’ decisions to specialize in cash crops.

specialization in cash crops. The decision to enter, exit or

farmers and export-oriented cash crop producers.

index

Amongst the latter, using a panel survey from 2002 to

while

controlling

for

household

and

farm

characteristics. The gain in agricultural income due to

2004, we can identify export-oriented farmers, farmers

changes in foreign market access is estimated. Finally,

exiting the export market and those entering the market.

the impact of an improvement of market access abroad is

An agricultural trade index is computed that captures

then simulated.

© AFD Working Paper N°76 • Market Access and Specialization in Cash Crops: Vietnam • November 2008 4

Introduction

Since the mid - 1990s, Vietnam has experienced a surge in

households that were export-oriented throughout the sur-

of the “Doi Moi” structural reforms. These introduced new

the period, households that began cultivating cash crops

agricultural and manufacturing exports, largely as a result

vey period, households that were subsistence-oriented for

land - use rights, with greater freedom being accorded to

and households that ceased production. We attempt to iden-

farmers to determine crop production, and the diminution of

tify the determinants of these transitions into or out of the

price distortions. The result of the reforms has been start-

export market. Among these determinants, changes to market

1

ling; over the 1993-2004 period, the national incidence of

access abroad (computed at the provincial level) play a signi-

poverty decreased by almost 39 percentage points, to

ficant role. Using a propensity score matching method, we

19 percent in 2004 (Vietnamese Academy of Social

estimate the agricultural income gains of entering into or

Sciences, 2006).

remaining in the export market, compared with subsistence

agriculture or exiting the export market.4 These estimations

Over the same period, Vietnam had a comparative advan-

are then used to simulate the impact of an improvement in

tage in agricultural products and with protective barriers in

foreign market access on Vietnam.

place it had relatively little to fear in terms of import competition. Moreover, as the country began importing raw mate-

This paper contributes to the large body of empirical litera-

2

rials and exporting farm products, new commercial opportu-

ture about the impact of trade liberalization on wage

nities emerged in domestic and international markets. This

inequality. Broadly, previous studies have focused on the

enabled Vietnam to become a major worldwide exporter

effect of trade liberalization on wages in the import-compe-

and producer of certain agricultural commodities including

ting manufacturing sector. A great many studies also draw

rice, coffee, cashews, black pepper and tea. Now, with

on the Latin American experience (Feliciano, 2001; Hanson

Vietnam’s accession into the WTO, it is expected that this

et al., 1999; Goldberg et al., 2005; Attanasio et al., 2004).

position will be consolidated and that the country’s market

In Asia, the pattern of trade liberalization differs somewhat,

potential will considerably increase. With the agriculture

with greater emphasis on agricultural exports. Here, trade

3

sector still accounting for more than 50 percent of employ-

liberalization was first studied through variations in rice

ment, agricultural trade liberalization is likely to have a

prices (Benjamin et al., 2002; Edmonds et al., 2004).

strong impact on household income. However, surprisingly

However, in recent years, other cash crops have played a

little is known about the distribution of export gains across

significant role and merit further study. Our methodology is

households.

close to that of Balat et al. (2006), which investigates the

This paper focuses on agricultural households. It seeks to

identify how foreign market access has influenced house-

hold specialization in export crops. More broadly, it seeks to

1

See Paquet, 2004 and Lavigne, 1999 for details of the economic reforms.

3

Vietnam became the 150th member of the WTO on 11 January 2007.

During this period the government implemented policies that limited imports in competitive sectors (through ad valorem tariffs and non-tariff barriers, such as quantitative restrictions, duty quotas, prohibitions, licensing and special regulations). The government also promoted exports with the creation of Export Processing Zones (EPZ) in 1991, tax exemption for exporters and the elimination of tariffs on imported fertilizers (Auffret, 2003).

2

assess the impact of trade liberalization on Vietnamese far-

mers using 2002-2004 household survey. We define exportoriented households as agricultural households cultivating

For a theoretical description of the various matching methods (particularly Local Linear Propensity score matching) and an empirical application to labor markets, see Heckman et al.

(1997).

the country’s primary cash crops (coffee, pepper, rubber,

4

tea and cashews). In the survey, we distinguish between

© AFD Working Paper N°76 • Market Access and Specialization in Cash Crops: Vietnam • November 2008 5

Introduction

constraints on Malawian farmers in entering commodity

section 3 compares export-oriented households and other

policy on non-farm employment in Vietnamese rural house-

out of the export market; section 4 estimates the income gains

export markets. Pham (2007) examines the impact of trade

households and looks at the determinants of transitions into or

holds. These papers, however, are based on repeated

of a specialization in export crops after households with simi-

cross sections. The originality of our work is to look at a

lar characteristics have been matched. Section 5 simulates

household panel that allows us to follow the same house-

the impact of an improvement in foreign market access for

holds over the time.

Vietnamese agricultural products; section 6 conducts robust-

This paper is laid out as follows: section 2 presents the data;

ness analyses; and section 7 concludes the study.

© AFD Working Paper N°76 • Market Access and Specialization in Cash Crops: Vietnam • November 2008 6

1.

Data

1.1

Dataset Table 1. Description of VHLS 2002-2004 Data

The paper uses data from the 2002 and 2004 Vietnam

Household Living Standard Survey (VHLSS) based on samples of 30,000 and 9,000 households, respectively. munity characteristics. The household questionnaire

6,300

Hslds present each year in farming

2,640

2,640

Hslds exiting from farming

includes information on basic demographics on all house-

2004

20,156

Household Panel

Both surveys collected information on household and com-

2002

Household Cross Section

Hslds entering into farming

169

224

hold members (age, sex, relationship to head); household

Total

2,809

2,864

income, employment and labor force participation, educa-

Household-Crop Panel

2002

2004

of health services, health insurance); housing (type of hou-

Crops exiting

expenditure (food, education, health, etc.); household tion (literacy, highest diploma, fee exemption); health (use

Crops present each year Crops entering

sing, electricity, water source, toilet, etc.); assets and

Total

durable goods and participation in poverty programs. The

11,164

11,164

16,506

17,349

5,342

6,185

VHLSS 2004 also included an expanded agricultural com-

holds remained in cash-crop agriculture over the 2002-

ting in/out in past 12 months, changes in land and land use

began producing cash-crops that will be exported. For our

2004 period, 169 households exited and 224 households

ponent that included information on land transactions (ren-

purposes, an agricultural household is defined as a house-

rights in last 10 years), produce sales, crop changes in last

hold reporting a positive harvest value in any crop in the

10 years and access to farm extension services (Phung et

VHLSS household questionnaire.*

al., 2006).

The surveys include 20,156 agricultural households in 2002

Summing things up, the 2,640 farmers cultivated a total of

tion on infrastructure was collected separately in a commu-

11,164 are cultivated in both years, providing original panel

16,506 crops in 2002 and 17,349 in 2004. of which the

and 6,300 agricultural households in 2004. Local informa-

of household-crops. Within the 16,506 crops cultivated in

nity questionnaire. In the following, we focus on the panel

2002, 5,342 crops were abandoned in 2002 and out of the

component of 4355 households and more precisely we

17,349 crops cultivated, 6,185 crops were introduced in

restrained our analysis on the panel subset of 2,640 agricul-

tural households.5 In Table 1 we can see that 2,640 house-

1.2

2004.

Cash Crop Producers

In 1990, rice accounted for 80.2 percent of agricultural

The United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database

continued to drop, reaching 32.7 percent in 2004. Other

Vietnam and the rest of the world. Based on these data,

exports (Table 2). Over the course of the decade, this share

(COMTRADE) provides data for trade flows between

crops emerged such as rubber, coffee and to a lesser

The panel linkage dataset was provided by Brian McCaig (please refer to http://www.chass.utoronto.ca/~bmccaig/notes for more information) as the one produced by the Government Statistical Office shows some inconsistency.

5

extent, cashews. Overall, the trade balance has been positively driven by primary products and among them, food

6 38 crops are reported in the survey. More crops are actually grown but are not identified separately in the survey.

products (General Statistical Office, 2006).

© AFD Working Paper N°76 • Market Access and Specialization in Cash Crops: Vietnam • November 2008 7

1. Data

Table 2.

Agricultural Export Composition in Vietnam 1990-2004

1990 80

Share of Agricultural Products in Total non-oil Exports Composition of agricultural exports:

Rubber

4.7

Coffee

1995 46 12

2000 25

2004 22

9.4

20.5

7.3

37.4

28.4

Rice

80.2

40.7

37.8

Black pepper

3.5

4.5

Tea

0.6

Cashew

3.8

Cinnamon

na

Groundnut

Source: Athukorala et al. 2007 based on GSO data.

9.8 0.8

22

4

3.3

32.7

9.5

15

8.3

5.2

na

na

0.7

0.3

0.3

100

100

100

100

2.3

0.9

Vietnam appears as a net exporter or a net importer for a

Map 1 (see Appendices) shows the geographical distribu-

General Statistics Office (GSO) are used to identify the

ta agricultural income per province. The eight administra-

given crop. Among crops that are exported, data from the

tion of cash crop producers and gives the average per capi-

most important ones.

tive regions of Vietnam are presented in Map 2. The Southeast provinces have a high average agricultural inco-

“Cash crops” thus include Vietnam’smajor exports such as

me and a concentration of cash crop producers. The

tea, coffee, rubber, pepper and cashews. “Other” crops can

Central Highlands also have many cash crop producers,

either be exported on a minor scale or simply subsistence-

but with lower per capita income, ranging from 2,136,000

oriented crops for local consumption. We leave aside rice,

Vietnam Dong (gr.cap) to 1,827,000 gr.cap. The Central

because rice is exported, imported and domestically

Highlands includes Dak Lak province where coffee produc-

consumed. The decision to begin growing rice thus differs

tion was successfully begun in the mid-1990s. The Mekong

from the decision to begin producing cash crops. Moreover,

River Delta is the richest region, although not solely due to

rice production has been extensively examined in other stu-

cash crops. Conversely, the North Central Coast is the poorest

dies (see above). Table 3 shows the classification of the 38

region, with provincial per capita agricultural income

crops in the dataset according to their market orientation.

Table 3.

Crop Definitions from VHLSS Dataset

ranging between 872,000 gr.cap and 1,827,000 gr.cap and

Water morning glory

Litchi, logan, rambutan

Sapodilla (large berry)

Tomatoes

Sugar cane

Tobaco

Jute, ramie (textile fiber)

Indian corn

Other

Other leafy greens

Mulberry

Oranges, limes, mandarins

Cabbages,

Specialty rice

Sweet potatoes

Peanuts

Sesame seeds

Coffee

Rubber

Kohlrabis,

cauliflower

Soy beans Cash crops

Potatoes

Pineapple Tea

Bananas

Apples

Mango

Custard apple

Fresh legumes (beans)

Plums

Grapes

Jackfruit, durian

Cassava manioc

Glutinous rice

Cotton

Coconut

Black pepper

Cashew

Papaya

© AFD Working Paper N°76 • Market Access and Specialization in Cash Crops: Vietnam • November 2008 8

Rice

1. Data

Table 4.

Other

Cash crops Rice

export-oriented if they produce any of the “cash crops” lis-

Share of Produce Sold on Markets, 2002-2004 2002 Average Std. Dev. 0.2977

0.3915

0.2461

0.3167

0.7865

0.3793

Average 0.3069

0.7967

0.2470

ted in Table 3. A subsistence household, however, is more

2004 Std. Dev.

difficult to define. In order to ensure that the target and

0.3944

control groups remain distinct, we define subsistence orien-

0.3724

ted households as those which: (i) are not growing any

0.3020

cash crops; and, (ii) sell no more than 50 per cent of their

total production. For example, a household that sells less

with cash crop farmers equally distributed throughout the

than 50 per cent of its total soybean production on local

region. Finally, the Northeast is the more heterogeneous

markets would be categorized as subsistence oriented.

region in terms of income and localization of cash crop pro-

Accordingly to this definition, households are either cash

ducers.

crop producers (export-oriented), labeled as 1, or subsis-

Table 4 shows the proportion of the harvest sold on mar-

tence oriented, labeled as 0.

kets, by crop type. For example, in 2004, farmers growing

other crops sent 31 per cent of their harvest to market on

Figure 1 plots a kernel density of the variation in agricultu-

self-consumed with only a quarter of production going to

production. The mode of the density function is at zero,

average. In the case of rice production, the majority was

ral income between 2002 and 2004 according to household

market. In 2002, almost 79 percent of the produce of cash

meaning that most households earned the same agricultu-

crop farmers went to market.

ral income in 2002 and 2004. However, the curve for cash

This paper examines specialization patterns in cash crops

crops farmers shows a gap on the right, meaning that many

versus subsistence farming and aims to capture the effects

cash crop farmers enjoyed a higher increase in their agri-

of trade liberalization. Thus, households are defined as Figure 1.

cultural income than did domestic-orientated farmers.

Kernel Density Distribution of Agricultural Income Gains by Farmer Classification (2002-2004)7

7 Household agricultural income data has been recomposed from the agriculture section of the VHLSS. Harvests of each crop are valued by a provincial price computed from unit values at the household level. This unit value is obtained by taking the ratio of values sold on the market over quantity, deflated by a month and a year deflator. The base period is January 2002.

These unit values are then averaged by crop and by province. The highest and lowest percentiles are dropped.

© AFD Working Paper N°76 • Market Access and Specialization in Cash Crops: Vietnam • November 2008 9

1. Data

1.3

The Dynamics of Crop Specialization

Turning to crop specialization decisions between 2002

subsistence oriented, newcomers and quitters. The same

shows that 347 households produced cash crops in both

separately, except rubber, for which no mobility is

and 2004, of 2,640 households in the panel, Table 1

classification can be carried out for each cash crop

years (1 to 1) and 1,347 households remained in

observed.8

The probability of exiting the export market is 8.21 percents,

subsistence oriented crops (0 to 0). 160 households

greater than the probability of entering (6.63 percent) des-

entered cash crop production (0 to 1) and 82 exited cash

pite the favorable context for exports (Table 6). This is the

crop production (1 to 0). For simplicity, these farmers are

case for all cash crops, except pepper.

respectively referred to as cash crops (or exporters),

Table 5.

Household Crop Dynamics (Number of Households)

2002 to 2004 0 to 1

1 to 0

1 to 1

0 to 0

Cash crops 160 82

347

1348

(Key: 0 = subsistence farming, 1 = cash crops).

Table 6.

Probabilities of Transition

2002 to 2004 0 to 1

1 to 0

1 to 1

0 to 0

Cash crops 6.63

Tea 72

35

23

133

Pepper

Cashew

8

18

43

37

75

64

1292

1432

1425

1438

Tea

Coffee

Pepper

Cashew

5.27

17.53

93.37

94.73

(Key: 0 = subsistence farming, 1 = cash crops).

20

127

8.21

91.79

Coffee

0.41

6.99

82.47

93.01

99.59

0.83

0.83

98.68

99.17

0.66

5.88

94.12

99.34

Thus, rubber is ruled out from the specific analysis of cash crops (but still included in the cash crops category).

8

© AFD Working Paper N°76 • Market Access and Specialization in Cash Crops: Vietnam • November 2008 10

2.

Barriers to Entry

Several factors could influence a household’s decision to

entitlement (ownership of a land certification). Other factors

household characteristics such as the number of children

ownership, for instance). A last factor arises directly from

specialize in export crops. A first set of factors relates to

could include household access to transport (vehicle

and the gender, age education level and marital status of

trade policy. Where the market access provided by

head household. Another set relates to the characteristics

Vietnam’s partner countries to agricultural exports from

of the farm: its size, the use of pesticides, and the type of

2.1

Vietnam is considered.

Modeling Market Access

The starting point is the international tariffs faced by

crop from 2000.12 The provincial agricultural trade open-

Vietnamese “cash crops” collected in the UNCTAD TRAINS

8bis

ness index is defined as follows:

dataset. Because it takes households time to

react to information on market conditions abroad,9 and

(Eq 1)

because households are heterogeneous with respect to risk, we use lagged tariffs variations. During a field survey

where

views that they “will change their cropping patterns becau-

2000.

in Binh Phuoc province,

10

most farmers reported in inter-

se someone they know has already done so and is doing

is the average tariff variation for cash crop e,

is the acreage of crop e in province p and year

well“. In other words, the first household that enters the export market may be self-selected in terms of risk aversion

and credit constraint. As we do not want to restrict our study to these pioneering households, we construct a lagged index of tariff variations that occurred in the 1990s.11

While market access variations were implemented on a national level, only those provinces with suitable climatic and soil conditions could benefit from improved access by

growing the internationally demanded crop. We capture the differential effect of trade liberalization across Vietnamese

8bis define 9

provinces based on the opportunity to grow a certain crop.

UNLTAO TRAINS.

This is primarily due to information asymmetry.

10 Conducted by Loren Brandt for a survey on land redistribution (World Bank). Here, those households changing crosp were mostly adopting cashew production.

Thus, in line with Topalova (2005), we construct an ex ante

national distribution of crops and then compare the house-

The ad valorem tariffs applied to Vietnamese cash crops on foreign markets were highly erratic throughout the period. Moreover data for some years was missing. So we constructed a consistent index over all cash crops and years based on the variation between 1997-2000 using 1992-1995 average values.

11

hold probability of starting cash crop production based on provincial natural resource endowment. Then, using GSO

12Unpublished

GSO data from the author’s participation in a joint project with the World Bank and the Center of Agricultural Policy (CAP) at IPSARD, Hanoi, Vietnam.

data, we create a provincial acreage share for each cash

© AFD Working Paper N°76 • Market Access and Specialization in Cash Crops: Vietnam • November 2008 11

2. Barriers to Entry

2.2

Modeling Participation in Cash Crop Production

A probit was run in order to model the probability of transi-

characteristics (

tions amongst cash crop farmers (the treatment group).13 If

plot (

(1) denotes a cash-crop producer, and (0) denotes a sub-

), characteristics of the agricultural

), and the trade index (

):

(Eq 2)

sistence farmer, a household (h) can be in four distinct

situations (i): it can be an exporter over the whole period

(11); a subsistence oriented farmer (00); it can enter into the

Index

ted in comparing households that remain stable producers

to estimate the probability of being (or becoming) an

acreage was devoted to crop e, in 2000. This will allow us

cash crop sector (01); or, leave it (10). We are first interes-

export producer given equal agronomy endowment.15

over the period. In a first specification (k=1), we estimate

While there are data constraints for creating detailed plot

the probability of participating in export production relative

characteristics (

to subsistence-oriented farming: i.e., we compare the (11)

) from the 2002 household panel, the

2004 survey included a dedicated agricultural module.

group to the (00) group. The second specification (k=2)

Thus, it was possible to create variables such as the

compares newcomers (01) with subsistence-oriented far-

share of land held under long-term certificate, land quality

mers (00). The third specification (k=3) compares quitters (10) to stable exporters (11). The transitional households

or irrigation type. Moreover, some data is retroactive,

14

are then compared to their initial group. The regression

such as variables relating to the history of plots under

includes three sets of repressors: household demographic

2.3

will take a value of zero in provinces where no

long-term certificates.

Results

Table 7 shows that variations in tariffs abroad on Vietnamese

transportation (such as a car) is correlated with export orien-

exporter relative to being or becoming subsistence-oriented.

the opposite direction depending on the crop: It decreases the

cash crops are negatively correlated with being or becoming an

tation. Being part of an ethnic minority (not Kinh) operates in

16

In other words, the probability of starting to grow a cash crop is

probability of becoming a pepper or cashew producer, while it

higher if market access abroad for that crop improves (columns

increases the probability of becoming a tea producer. The

1 and 3). This result holds for each crop individually with a sub-

education of the head household also has a mixed effect. If he

stantially larger effect for cashew and coffee. On average and

(she) has a secondary education, it lowers the probability of

ceteris paribus, a one percentage point reduction in the agricul-

entering coffee and pepper production, while it increases the

tural trade index (as defined in Eq 1) increases the probability

probability of becoming a tea grower.

of remaining in tea production by 1.432 percentage points and

Other less intuitive factors are correlated with entry into the

of beginning tea production by 0.69 of a percentage point.

export market: land tenure, irrigation and the distance to the

Conversely, reduced market access abroad drives households

land plot. The use of chemical pesticides is correlated to tea

out of the production of cash crops (column 2).

and coffee production; although organic pesticides are also

correlated to coffee production.17 More intuitively, a high

Table 8 gives the results for the group of cash crops as a

quality of land is correlated to tea production.

whole. A deterioration of market access abroad decreases the probability of becoming a cash crop grower. All else being

The standard errors of the estimators are corrected for the correlation of the residuals between different observations of the same province (intra cluster).

13

equal, a one percentage point reduction in the agricultural

14

trade index will decrease the probability of households parti-

15

cipating in cash crop production by 0.115 of a percentage

These three specifications k=1, 2 and 3 appear in the columns of7 and 8 tables.

We will test the robustness of this hypothesis in section 6.

For specification 3, there were insufficient observations for pepper to run a probit. For a further description of the data used in the regression please refer to Table 1 in the Appendix.

16

point.

This might be due to the fact that as world coffee prices fall, farmers substitute partially organic pesticides for chemical pesticides (Ha, 2008).

17

In line with Balat et al. (2006), we find that owning a means of

© AFD Working Paper N°76 • Market Access and Specialization in Cash Crops: Vietnam • November 2008 12

© AFD Working Paper N°76 • Market Access and Specialization in Cash Crops: Vietnam • November 2008

13

1412 0.36

Note: Standard errors appear in italics.

Observations Pseudo R2

1357 0.18

162 0.22

1557 0.47

1354 0.29

155 0.15

Coffee 1 2 3 Exporters Newcomers Quitters -3.433 -2.508 0.252 [1.106]** [0.568]** [0.202] 0.132 0.259 -0.37 [0.258] [0.287] [0.379] -0.068 -0.154 0.047 [0.141] [0.153] [0.280] 0.247 0.054 -0.108 [0.152] [0.156] [0.389] 0.527 -0.429 0.43 [0.286] [0.261] [0.778] -0.407 -0.01 -0.994 [0.181]* [0.237] [0.435]* -0.532 -0.027 [0.372] [0.578] -0.421 -0.193 0.216 [0.188]* [0.320] [0.277] 0.187 0.435 -0.118 [0.164] [0.233] [0.284] -0.208 -0.063 0.08 [0.123] [0.098] [0.239] 0.12 0.452 0.583 [0.107] [0.288] [0.328] 0.299 -0.024 -0.137 [0.356] [0.385] [0.798] -0.441 -0.327 0.371 [0.273] [0.260] [0.293] 1.152 -0.865 [0.261]** [0.449] -0.099 0.172 0.229 [0.192] [0.337] [0.447] 0.667 0.518 -0.254 [0.280]* [0.290] [0.435] 5.364 -1.089 -6.009 [2.169]* [3.801] [4.498] 1.379 0.585 -3.679 [0.463]** [1.060] [1.269]** 0.035 -0.014 -0.025 [0.043] [0.110] [0.071] 0.006 0.256 -0.175 [0.136] [0.266] [0.243] 0.334 -0.048 -0.828 [0.133]* [0.235] [0.378]* -1.15 -2.509 -0.674 [1.003] [1.030]* [2.121]

Determinants of Participation in Each Cash Crop (Specifications 1, 2 and 3)

Tea 1 2 3 Exporters Newcomers Quitters Trade Index : -1.432 -0.685 0.889 [0.146]** [0.202]** [0.275]** Ethnicity -0.002 0.371 0.528 [0.245] [0.182]* [0.312] Poor 0.047 0.247 0.343 [0.178] [0.209] [0.325] Rich 0.008 -0.114 -0.487 [0.160] [0.126] [0.405] Gender -0.078 -0.631 0.615 [0.222] [0.189]** [0.463] Married 0.497 0.17 -0.008 [0.207]* [0.204] [0.704] Technical diploma 0.429 0.553 -0.043 [0.280] [0.216]* [0.769] Secondary & upper 0.37 0.618 -0.106 [0.218] [0.181]** [0.417] Primary 0.259 0.233 -0.234 [0.165] [0.176] [0.364] Age squared 0.025 0.164 0.073 [0.139] [0.131] [0.237] Size of household -0.064 0.549 -0.325 [0.187] [0.234]* [0.336] Share of male 0.425 0.319 0.042 [0.400] [0.319] [0.653] Land tenure -0.261 -0.023 0.101 [0.171] [0.195] [0.331] Car 0.213 -0.325 0.063 [0.460] [0.499] [0.964] Varicertif -0.206 -0.131 -0.448 [0.197] [0.181] [0.469] Urban -0.079 0.061 0.348 [0.369] [0.273] [0.534] Organic pesticides -.,298 0.503 6.907 [2.726] [2.263] [4.626] Chemical pesticides 1.432 1.022 -1.079 [0.601]* [0.756] [1.129] Land distance 0.039 -0.047 -0.054 [0.072] [0.048] [0.106] Quality of land 0.665 0.69 -0.406 [0.131]** [0.153]** [0.435] Irrigation -0.661 -0.432 0.412 [0.235]** [0.199]* [0.321] Constant -3.537 -4.491 -0.275 [1.178]** [1.026]** [2.147]

Table 7.

1493 0.44

1461 0.39

Pepper 1 2 Exporters Newcomers -1.91 -1.933 [0.458]** [0.352]** -0.427 -0.948 [0.242] [0.277]** -0.145 -0.08 [0.144] [0.145] 0.3 0.4 [0.180] [0.220] 0.335 0.215 [0.283] [0.351] -0.356 -0.253 [0.253] [0.374] -0.377 -0.47 [0.271] [0.447] -0.162 -0.65 [0.205] [0.215]** 0.25 -0.398 [0.189] [0.211] -0.091 0.105 [0.123] [0.142] 0.482 0.365 [0.216]* [0.311] -0.06 0.131 [0.367] [0.699] -0.414 -0.22 [0.194]* [0.203] 1.272 0.582 [0.389]** [0.452] -0.319 -0.193 [0.207] [0.164] 0.264 0.441 [0.165] [0.297] 2.838 3.064 [1.962] [3.017] 0.582 1.905 [0.566] [0.628]** -0.07 0.153 [0.043] [0.054]** 0.067 0.286 [0.229] [0.177] -0.056 0.315 [0.159] [0.199] -1.565 -4.739 [0.928] [1.503]** 1494 0.56

1468 0.63

81 0.4

Cashew 1 2 3 Exporters Newcomers Quitters -2.148 -3.02 0.468 [0.358]** [0.463]** [0.152]** -0.241 -1.195 -0.458 [0.200] [0.345]** [0.688] -0.034 -0.01 0.455 [0.207] [0.223] [0.493] 0.373 -0.908 -0.971 [0.199] [0.333]** [0.503] 0.198 0.13 -0.838 [0.451] [0.420] [0.682] 1.774 1.975 -1.096 [1.219] [1.055] [1.052] -0.633 -2.476 0.755 [0.472] [0.958]** [0.941] -0.221 -0.381 -0.379 [0.192] [0.288] [0.582] 0.176 -0.61 -0.763 [0.193] [0.282]* [0.487] 0.086 0.063 0.139 [0.145] [0.183] [0.556] 0.01 -0.505 0.312 [0.239] [0.300] [0.545] -0.081 0.727 2.6 [0.381] [0.630] [0.983]** -0.534 -0.286 1.217 [0.195]** [0.228] [0.427]** 0.707 2.117 0.158 [0.381] [0.604]** [0.735] -0.396 -0.976 0.332 [0.280] [0.537] [0.723] -0.255 0.983 0.671 [0.451] [0.320]** [0.460] 4.179 4.843 -13.888 [2.502] [3.486] [4.809]** -0.034 1.693 0.732 [0.979] [0.866] [2.118] -0.018 0.062 -0.083 [0.067] [0.052] [0.105] 0.022 -0.075 0.009 [0.267] [0.246] [0.322] -0.025 -0.618 -0.489 [0.202] [0.206]** [0.519] -4.431 -4.579 -0.931 [1.513]** [1.761]** [4.802]

2. Barriers to Entry

2. Barriers to Entry

Table 8: Determinants of Cash Crop Production18

Trade Index: Chemical pesticides Land distance Quality of land Irrigation Constant Observations Pseudo R2

1 Exporters

All Cash Crops 2 Newcomers

3 Quitters

[0.163]**

[0.130]**

[0.068]

[0.502]**

[0.597]

[0.698]**

[0.039]

[0.028]

[0.037]

[0.123]**

[0.136]**

[0.173]

[0.155]

[0.128]

[0.191]

[0.695]**

[0.831]**

[1.118]

0.34

0.2

0.11

-0.69

-0.565

2.008

0.976

0.003

-0.031

0.406

0.475

-0.177

-0.158

-1.891

-3.036

1686

1534

0.115

-2.286

-0.021

-0.009

-0.166

-1.293 407

18 Only selected variables are shown, but regressions are run on all variables listed in Table 7. Standard errors are in brackets and *refers to a level of signifiance at 5%; and ** a level of 1%. (MOV)

© AFD Working Paper N°76 • Market Access and Specialization in Cash Crops: Vietnam • November 2008 14

3.

3.1

Gains from Specialization in Export Crops Inference from Observed Income

Figure 2 illustrates agricultural income gains and losses

newcomers were initially comprised of cash crop produ-

density distribution of newcomers in the cash crop sector is

both the greatest increase in the number of cash crop pro-

cers.19 Second, the Central Highland region experienced

according to changing crop specializations. The change in the

ducers as well as the greatest increase in income. This

slightly to the right relative to the others, but this is not so at

region, moreover, already had the highest level of exporters

all points along the distribution. Some of the farmers who quit

and income (see Map 1). In contrast, the North Central

the export market lose more than those who remained export-

Coast performed second best and was one of the poorest

oriented or who became exporters. But this holds only at the

regions in 2002.

lowest part of the distribution. For the upper part of the distri-

Thus far, the possibility that export and subsistence orien-

bution, some quitters gain more than exporters.

ted households could be different for other reasons that

Map 3 (see Appendices) shows the number of newcomers

might explain the differences in income gains. Has not been

and the provincial average agricultural gain. Three observa-

accounted for, 50 propenity score watching wil be applied.

tions can be highlighted. First, most of the provinces with Figure 2.

Kernel Density Distribution of Agricultural Income Gains according to transitions (2002-2004)

19 This finding reinforces the idea that natural endowment, measured by the provincial share of acreage in 2000, which is a component of the agricultural trade openness index (defined in Section 2.1), plays a role.

© AFD Working Paper N°76 • Market Access and Specialization in Cash Crops: Vietnam • November 2008 15

3.Gains from Specialization in Export Crops

3.2

Comparing Comparables

Starting with the agricultural income

of farmers (h).

ted that summarizes the households. Export-oriented hou-

cultural income defined as (i=1) and those who are sub-

their propensity score, using kernel matching. Then all trea-

Those involved in cash crop production will have an agri-

seholds are then matched with other households, based on

sistence-oriented as (i=0) to estimate the expected inco-

ted households are matched with a weighted average of all

me differential of export-oriented households versus sub-

controls with weights that are inversely proportional to the

sistence-orientated households.20 That is, to measure the

distance between the propensity scores of treated house-

average “treatment effect” of being an export-oriented

holds and controls.

household:

The propensity score indicates the probability of a household participating in cash crop production based on

the observables defined in Equation 1 (Section 2.2). A necessary assumption is that households with a given propensity

The two incomes are not observed at the same time. In

order to compare the two groups of households, which may

have

the

same

distribution

of

growing subsistence crops. Thus, we need to impose a

differ in their characteristics, a propensity score is calcula-

3.3

score

observables as households growing cash crops and those balancing property.21

Results

First results for household income are examined and then

are expected to gain 645,600 VND per capita more on

procedure suggested by Dehejia et al., 2002, is used.

This represents 24.5 percent of the average total per

household expenditure results. In both cases the

average than comparable subsistence-oriented farmers.

Most of the crops’ specifications satisfy the balancing

capita expenditure of the panel in 2002. Another

property. The standard errors are bootstrapped where

interesting illustration of the magnitude is that it

this is not satisfied, results appear in braces in Table 9

represents a third of the 2002 poverty line, which is set at

and Table 10. In general, farmers entering into cash crops Table 9.

1,916,000 VND per person.22

Estimated Agricultural Income Gains Per Capita, 2002-2004 2002 0 0 1 1

1 0

Situation vs. vs.

vs.

Note: Standard errors appear in italics.

2004

Tea

0

103.093

1 0

Gain in Agricultural Income (1000 VND) Coffee Pepper Cashew

267.03

{967.024}

-458.04

-1122.06

302.2621

1

271.4207

353.8763

0

149.2251

256.99

{782.1451}

1

213.566

{751.1573} 365.707

1480.27

358.041

645.60

1180.284

150.0269

546.04

-496.96

614.9614 99.80507

Cash crops

{1320.919} 1375.874

198.3714 405.15

159.0539

20 This

specification corresponds to k=1 as defined in section 2.2. We will alternatively examine the three specifications (k=1,2,3).

This means that sufficient treated and non-treated comparable households exist in order to control for all households covariates.

21

22 At

January 2002, $1 US (or 1.12 EUR) was equivalent to 15,000 VND.

© AFD Working Paper N°76 • Market Access and Specialization in Cash Crops: Vietnam • November 2008 16

3.Gains from Specialization in Export Crops

However, these results are attenuated if we look at the gain

about 158,450 VND per capita in terms of expenditure com-

70,930 VND per capita more than subsistence-oriented far-

exists because agricultural income is just one part of hou-

in per capita expenditure (Table 10). Newcomers earn only

pared to subsistence-oriented farmers. This discrepancy

mers and the difference is no longer significant. Cash crop

sehold income, and because the Vietnamese have been

producers have an average treatment effect that is only

Table 10.

increasing their rate of savings.

Estimated Per Capita Expenditure Gains, 2002-2004 2002 0 0 1 1

1 0

Situation vs. vs.

vs.

Note: Standard errors appear in italics.

Gain in Total Expenditure (1000 VND) Coffee Pepper Cashew

2004

Tea

-83,77

{-144.5616}

{276.7958}

103.01

-553.28

1 0 0

113.5906

255.9959

1

274.504

323.9543

0

144.886

-119.99

{267.4252}

1

202.7004

25.12

313.1941

70.93

512.7541

107.0576

-147.40

-256.18

371.9192 472.79

356.5388

Cash crops

{150.7766} 557.8921

130.1842

© AFD Working Paper N°76 • Market Access and Specialization in Cash Crops: Vietnam • November 2008 17

158.45

136.8423

4.

Simulating an Improvement in Market Access Abroad

First, Table 11 gives a breakdown of national crop acreages

shows that a one percentage point decrease in tariffs

perennials are the second largest category of crop,

12.5 percent increase in the number of households involved

10 percent in 2004.

6.8 percent the number of households entering into cash

in 2002 and 2004.

23

After cereals (principally rice),

applied to exports will result, ceteris paribus, in a

accounting for 9.6 percent of total acreage in 2002 and

in cash crop production on average. It increases by

In this section the impact of an improvement in market

crop production and decreases the number of cash crop

access for Vietnamese cash crops is simulated. Table 12 Table 11.

producers switching to subsistence crops by 3.1 percent.24

Proportional Crop Acreage, 2002 and 2004

National Share of Acreage by Type of Crop

2002

2004

Cereals

74.53

73.46

Annual industrials

5.48

5.37

Vegetables & beans

5.46

Perennials Fruits

Source: GSO, 2006.

Estimated Effect of an Improvement in Market Access

Predicted acreage (ha)

As percentage of the total

Predicted number of farmers Improvement of Market Access

Effect on acreage (ha)

Effect on number of farmers As percentage of the total

(Done for Specifications 1, 2 and 3).

9.68

10.03

100

100

4.85

Total

Table 12.

5.81

[1]

[2]

5.32

[3]

2,346,611

1,588,016

3,525,792

20,249

13,703

30,424

1,619,161

897,229

-405,466

12.3%

6.8%

-3.1%

17.8%

12.0%

13,972

7,742

26.8%

-3,499

Perennials include the cash crops tea, coffee, pepper, cashew and rubber, as well as coconut.

23

24 The predicted acreage is calculated by multiplying the predicted probability (obtained in the estimation of the propensity score) by the total national acreage (GSO, 2006). The number of farmers is reached by dividing the predicted acreage by the average plot size (GSO, 2006).

Next, the effect on acreage of an improvement in market access is obtained by multiplying the marginal effect of a one percentage point reduction in tariffs applied to Vietnamese cash crops in the rest of the world by the predicted acreage. Finally, the predicted effect in terms of the number of farmers is obtained by dividing the predicted effect in terms of acreage by the average Vietnamese plot acreage. The percentage is the share of the latter over the total number of farms (GSO, 2006).

© AFD Working Paper N°76 • Market Access and Specialization in Cash Crops: Vietnam • November 2008 18

5.

Robustness of the Results

In order to test the robustness of the results, we created an

the robustness of the agricultural trade index measure. The

1998 commune data. This survey reported national sub-

farther a household is from any maritime port, the higher

alternative agricultural index based on the VLHSS 1997-

coefficient of the distance variable is counter-intuitive: The

aggregate (i.e. perennials) crop acreages as well as agri-

the probability that it is or becomes a cash crop producer.

cultural holdings by commune. This information was used

This can be due to the fact that the relatively isolated

to compute the provincial breakdown of cash crop produc-

Central Highland region has a concentration of cash crop

tion. Results are reported in Table 13. The signs and order

growers (See Appendices Map 1).

of magnitude of coefficients remain unchanged compared

Finally, the exogeneity of the explanatory variables was tes-

to Table 8, despite a higher coefficient rate in the alternati-

ted (more particularly, the use of chemical pesticides by

ve trade index.

producers); that seems to have strong impact on the esti-

The validity of the trade index was tested by including the

mates. Table 13 shows that the coefficient of interest does

distance from each province to the nearest maritime port in

not change significantly. This gives confidence in the exo-

the regression. This last variable was created as a proxy

geneity of the independent variables are dropped. Of cour-

25

for the provincial distance to international markets, as in

se, as some of the independent variables, some explicative

Nicita (2004). The results in Table 13 once again confirm

Table 13.

Robustness of Determinants of Participation in Cash Crop Production

On all Cash Crops Trade Index

1 Exporters

Trade Index 2 Distances Chemical pesticides Land distance Quality of land

-8.407

[2.701]**

2.505

[0.643]**

-0.035

[0.035] 0.464

[0.124]**

Specification 1 2 Newcomers

-7.007

[1.944]**

1.369

[0.552]*

-0.039

[0.032] 0.512

[0.135]**

3 Quitters

0.869

[0.999]

-2.291

1 Exporters -0.669

0.097

[0.038]

[0.177]

[0.124]**

-0.022

-0.093

0.998

-2.116

-0.031

-0.021

0.481

-0.004

[0.029]

0.396

0.102

[0.068]

[0.587]

0.003

3 Quitters

[0.132]**

[0.037]

1.901

[0.037] 0.02

-0.571

[0.048]* [0.494]**

-0,008

Specification 2 2 Newcomers

[0.163]**

[0.661]**

power is lost as indicated in the drop in Rsquared.

[0.138]**

1 Exporters -0.705

[0.177]**

Specification 3 2 Newcomers -0.546

3 Quitters

0.149

[0.130]**

[0.062]*

[0.053] [0.698]**

[0.037] [0.169]

Irrigation

-0.192

-0.133

-0.263

-0.166

-0.16

-0.174

Constant

-1.709

-2.996

-1.316

-2.389

-2.917

-0.792

-1.322

-2.654

-1.958

Observations

1626

1488

388

1686

1534

407

1695

1541

409

Rsquared

[0.162] [0.778]* 0.27

[0.127] [0.826]** 0.18

[0.205] [1.156] 0.1

[0.155]

[0.128]

[0.707]**

[0.792]**

0.35

0.2

[0.186] [1.165] 0.11

[0.743] 0.29

[0.754]** 0.17

[1.127] 0.06

Only the results on all cash crops are shown and described, but the robustness check was also carried out at the crop level and can be provided upon request.

25

© AFD Working Paper N°76 • Market Access and Specialization in Cash Crops: Vietnam • November 2008 19

Conclusion

Over the past decade, Vietnam has considerably increased

overusing chemical pesticides, at levels far higher than the

to the national trade surplus. In addition to having a real

Thus, even if in the short run the use of chemical pesticides

have enjoyed better market access over the last decade.

time. Industrialized countries, such as France, have expe-

its agricultural exports thus making a significant contribution

optimal level for profit maximization (Nguyen et al., 2003).

comparative advantage, Vietnamese agricultural products

improves yields, it may have an inverse negative effect over

Moreover, rural development in Vietnam relative to other

rienced negative effects due to overuse of chemical pesti-

developing countries (China in particular) has been descri-

cides over the last decades.26

We also find that agricultural income gains have been lar-

bed as a success story, featuring falling poverty rates and

ger for newcomers relative to subsistence farmers. While

stable, low inequality.

we focus on producers here and do not examine the effect

We explored the impact of an improvement in foreign mar-

of trade liberalization on Vietnamese consumers, it is rea-

ket access for Vietnamese cash-crop producers. We pro-

sonable to acknowledge that consumers are negatively

ceeded in three steps. First, we identified the determinants

affected when agricultural prices reach a threshold, as

of crop specialization, distinguishing between cash crop

demonstrated by food riots that took place around the world

producers, newcomers, quitters and subsistence farmers.

in 2008. In Vietnam, one indication that high agricultural

Then we matched households using a propensity score in

prices have negatively affected consumers was the intro-

order to compare gains in agricultural income according to

duction of an export tax on rice designed to ensure food

crop choice over the 2002-2004 period. Finally, we simula-

security in April 2008.

ted the impact of improved market access on crop choice.

The panel survey enabled us to track individuals, crop types

Our results show that farmers were more likely to become

and income gains. However, the time span of the survey

cash crop producers, rather than remain subsistence far-

was too short to allow us to assess if cash crop farmers are

mers, when they had greater opportunities to sell on forei-

more vulnerable to the volatility of international markets.

gn markets. Our study focuses on the trade policies of

In the last section, we found that a one percentage point

Vietnam’s trade partners. Other determinants might have

decrease in the tariff applied to Vietnamese exports will,

also influenced farmer choices, such as prices on national

ceteris paribus, increase the number of cash crop produ-

and international markets. In a previous paper we showed

cers by 12.3 percent on average. In a dynamic perspective,

that in the 1990s national and local prices converged

it will increase the number of households entering into cash

towards international prices, considerably increasing the

crop production by 6.8 percent. A caveat of these results is

income of farmers who were already involved in crops that

that there is no general equilibrium effect here. We would

could be exported (Coello, 2007).

think, for example, that an increase in the number of cash

We found that the characteristics of agricultural holdings

crop producers would impact the demand for inputs and

seem to matter more for crop specialization than house-

thus lower the expected increase in income.

holds’ own characteristics. In particular, households with better quality land and high use of chemical pesticides were more likely to be export-orientated.

However, Vietnamese agriculture appears to have been

26

One negative effect is a decrease in land quality (Nicolino, 2007).

© AFD Working Paper N°76 • Market Access and Specialization in Cash Crops: Vietnam • November 2008 20

Conclusion

This paper highlights the impact of trade liberalization on

duction on agricultural income gains, a long-term perspec-

World Trade Organization, foreign imports might also affect

lead to a shortage of arable land, deforestation and soil ero-

exports. However, following Vietnam’s accession to the

tive should also be taken into account. This success may

the national economy. For instance, maize producers, who

sion, as was the case in 1999 when coffee farmers cleared

are mainly poor households from ethnic minorities, may

more than 74,000 hectares of forest in Dac Lak province

have some difficulties competing with subsidized maize

alone when coffee prices were booming (World Rainforest

imports.

Movement, 2001). Increases in international crop prices

Finally, even if we show a positive impact of cash crop pro-

could also lead to such ecological effects.

© AFD Working Paper N°76 • Market Access and Specialization in Cash Crops: Vietnam • November 2008 21

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Appendices

eAppendix 1. Description of Variables Variable

Brief description

Size of the household Age squared

Distances

Household head age Share of males

Chemical pesticides Organic pesticides Land distance

Average

Std. Dev.

Logarithm of the size of the household

1.465

0.377

Logarithm of the age squared

7.630

0.573

Log of distance to the main maritime port

4.549

Logarithm of the age of the head of household Share of males

Share of the amount spent on Chemical pesticides of total agricultural expenditures Share of the amount spent on Organic pesticides of total agricultural expenditures

0.227

=1 if male,=0 otherwise

Secondary & upper Technical diploma Ethnicity

Land tenure Car

Quality of land Irrigation Urban

Trade Index : Tea

Coffee

Pepper

Cashew

0.008

Variation in "Land Tenure" between 2000 and 2004

Gender

Primary

0.151

5.945

Share of land owned with a land tenure before 2000

Married

0.508

Log of Distance to their land

Land tenure Varicertif

3.815

=1 if married,=0 otherwise

0.466 0.842 0.864

=1 if having primary education ,=0 otherwise

=1 if having secondary or upper education,=0 otherwise =1 if having technical education,=0 otherwise =1 if none-kinh,=0 otherwise

=1 if households do not have a land tenure, =0 otherwise =1 if households own a car,=0 otherwise =1 high quality land, =0 otherwise

0.264 0.369 0.046 0.198 0.466 0.022 0.575

=1 if pump system, =0 otherwise

0.312

=1 if urban, =0 otherwise

0.077

See Section 1 for more details

1.711

0.286 0.187 0.103 0.033 1.873 0.468 0.393 0.365 0.342 0.441 0.483 0.210 0.399 0.468 0.147 0.494 0.463 0.266

Cash crop

-0.166

0.421

Cash crop

-0.100

0.304

Cash crop

-0.047

Cash crop

-0.116

0.180

0.405

All crops GSO

All crops with GSO source for acreage provincial data

-0.444

0.996

Poor

Lower 30% of expenditure distribution

0.300

0.458

(Middle class)

Omitted variable

0.400

0.490

All crop VHLSS

Rich

All crops with 1997common VHLSS source for acreage provincial data

Upper 30% of expenditure distribution

-0.012 0.300

© AFD Working Paper N°76 • Market Access and Specialization in Cash Crops: Vietnam • November 2008 24

0.029

0.458

Appendices

Map 1.

Agricultural Per Capita Income in 2002 and Cash Crop Producers

3827,73 2714,33 2136,81 1827,01 1475,86 1282,37 872,62

© AFD Working Paper N°76 • Market Access and Specialization in Cash Crops: Vietnam • November 2008 25

Appendices

Map 2.

The Eight Administrative Regions of Vietnam

© AFD Working Paper N°76 • Market Access and Specialization in Cash Crops: Vietnam • November 2008 26

Appendices

Map 3.

Agricultural Income Variation (2002-2004) and Newcomers

1358,62 664,60 322,27 222,97 137,71 0

- 2067,29

© AFD Working Paper N°76 • Market Access and Specialization in Cash Crops: Vietnam • November 2008 27

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