Introduction

Chapter 1

Social Contracts in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Research Program

Introduction

Despite significant gains in the fight against poverty and tremendous continental heterogeneity, the Africa region continues to lag across development indicators. Although the incidence of extreme poverty fell from 54 percent in 1990 to 41 percent in 2015, persistently high fertility rates led to an absolute increase of Africans living on less than US$1.90 a day from 278 million to 413 million in that same time frame. By 2030 extreme poverty is expected to be an exclusively African phenomenon. African countries account for 24 of the 25 lowest scores on the Human Capital Index 2020 (World Bank 2020). Trailing other regions, energy access is at 37 percent; only 5 percent of agricultural land is irrigated; adult literacy is at 58 percent; and Africa’s share of global foreign direct investment has hovered around 3 percent for the past decade (Zeufack et al. 2020).

In many states, delivery of public goods and services remains wanting, and the expected dividends from shifts to multiparty democracy in most parts of the continent have failed to yield either economic dynamism or enhanced state capability. The skills gap with other regions is increasing. The pace of structural transformation is slow, and the move out of agriculture is to a large extent into low-productivity and vulnerable informal jobs. More than 50 percent of the world’s conflicts are also in Africa, while the region has only 16 percent of the global population (United Nations and World Bank 2018; World Bank 2017); large swaths of the continent suffer from the devastating effects of large-scale internal displacement, refugee flight, and economic out-migration.

Explanations for Africa’s poor performance and persistent challenges are myriad, but the World Bank has generally focused on the issue of policy, positing that by adopting and implementing the “right policies” African states can break out of poverty traps. But the mixed record of decades of policy advice and

technical assistance requires us to look more deeply at the underlying factors that explain policy uptake and outcomes in different contexts. The charge for this study was to use the lens of social contracts to explore these challenges and identify implications for World Bank engagements.

This approach builds on the increased attention paid to social and political economy factors that gained further traction with the publication of the World Development Report 2017: Governance and the Law. That report argues that “policy-making and policy implementation do not occur in a vacuum. Rather, they take place in complex political and social settings, in which individuals and groups with unequal power interact within changing rules as they pursue conflicting interests” (World Bank 2017, 29). Who bargains, who is excluded, and what rules shape the nature of the bargain determine the selection and implementation of policies and, consequently, their impact on development outcomes. Simply stated, policies and outcomes tend to reflect the interests of those with greater power.

The social contract angle focuses on a particular dimension of this power dynamic: that between citizens and the state. It hypothesizes that a healthy social contract, in which state policies reflect the demands and expectations of society, leads to more stable, equitable, and prosperous outcomes relative to those that do not. It also draws attention to the nature of the citizen-state bargaining process and the factors that shape and mediate the interests that are represented and the capabilities of delivering on expectations. The study, therefore, focuses on the process by which social contracts are forged in the region, how they change over time, and how a more in-depth understanding of social contracts can help inform reform efforts. This approach stands in contrast to a normative approach that details the shortcomings and desirable content for social contracts without grappling with the realities that shape them.

The onset of the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic in 2020 has placed a spotlight on these relationships as states face the public health threat, impacts of containment, and the global slowdown, putting additional stress on state and citizen relations. The outbreak has set off the first recession in the region in 25 years, with growth forecast between −2.1 percent and −5.1 percent in 2020 from a modest 2.4 percent in 2019. In turn, the pandemic shock has seriously affected relations between rulers and the ruled and highlighted the importance of trust and legitimacy along with technical capability (Khemani 2020). These impacts are occurring against a backdrop of increased protest over the past decade (Branch and Mampilly 2015; LeBas 2013; Mueller 2018), now compounded by lockdown measures (Ramdeen 2020), which is hampering the effectiveness of addressing pandemic outcomes.

In this context, this report provides a timely synthesis of findings from a regional research program that engaged a multidisciplinary group of scholars to explore the role of social contracts in explaining and addressing contemporary

African development challenges. The research program involved multiple layers of engagement and exploration of the topic, including the following: • Working paper series.1 Two framing papers focused on developing a working framework and an understanding of social contracts in Africa and one aimed at quantitatively characterizing social contracts in the region. In addition, six country studies (Cameroon, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Somalia, and

South Africa), four thematic studies (two on human rights, one on taxation, and one on social protection), and four spotlights on issues of operational importance to the region were undertaken. • Seminars and presentations.2 Seminars and presentations were held that included academics and researchers to obtain a clear set of concepts around the social contract. An authors’ seminar revolved around thematic and country case studies. A number of presentations were given by members of the wider social contract team to World Bank staff, including by Michael Watts, professor emeritus, Berkeley; Leonard Wantchekon, professor, Princeton

University; and Belinda Archibong, associate professor, Barnard College.

Presentations were also made to wider audiences on specific themes of the report. • Applications of the social contract regional study.The team supported country teams in selected Systematic Country Diagnostics and country strategy work to bring in the social contract lens (for example, in Malawi, Nigeria, Somalia,

South Africa, Sudan, and Tunisia) as well as its application to gaining an understanding of how to support development at the local level (Haiti).

Chapters 2 and 3 of this report address one of the critical limitations of the use of social contract analysis to date, that is, the lack of a conceptual framework or shared understanding of the term. Chapter 2 explores the evolution and application of social contract terminology within the literature of African politics and development on the one hand and within World Bank discourse on the other. Building on this discussion, chapter 3 sets forth a working definition of social contracts and a conceptual framing for identifying the critical components and factors that characterize social contracts in specific contexts. This framing is accompanied by a qualitative and quantitative methodology for assessing social contracts and comparing them across space, time, and different sets of development challenges. It offers overarching findings from the application of the quantitative framework broadly across the continent.

Chapters 4 and 5 apply the conceptual and quantitative framework to a series of country case studies and thematic spotlights. These studies are not meant to be comprehensive accounts; one important aspect of this report’s framing is that countries cannot be reduced to a single social contract but are characterized by multiple, overlapping spaces of citizen-state bargaining. The examples serve