What will Ocala look like in 2050?

Well, start with two-thirds more people, high-rises and global impact

BY BRAD ROGERS

PHOTOGRAPHY BY BRONSON MOSLEY

Think about what was happening in Ocala three decades ago. In 1990, the county had a population of about 195,000 people. Congress formerly deauthorized the Cross Florida Barge Canal. Kmart started construction on a 1.5 millionsquare-foot distribution center. The state of Florida purchased Rainbow Springs for $5.1 million. And an Ocala-bred thoroughbred named Unbridled won the Kentucky Derby. Three decades later, Ocala/Marion County has a population of nearly 370,000. The former barge canal land is now the 90mile long Marjorie Harris Carr Cross Florida Greenway. The Kmart facility is now Transformco and just one of many massive distribution centers that are fast making Ocala a global logistics center. And, of course, horses remain a vital part of the community’s character and the local economy, including being home to the new and massive World Equestrian Center. So, what will Ocala/Marion County look like three decades from now? What will Ocala look like in 2050? The short answer is it is going to grow. A lot. To get a clearer vision, OM posed the question to local planners, developers, industrialists and economists who all share a vision that will be unsurprising to some, but very surprising to others. By 2050, population analysts project the county will be approaching 600,000 residents. Much of that growth will occur along today’s already burgeoning corridors – State Road 200, U.S. 27 and U.S. 441. The industrial and logistics explosion we are seeing today is likely to continue, with some predicting Ocala will become a key national, even international link in the global supply chain. Horses will remain a calling card for the Horse Capital of the World, although there will be pressures from the flood of new resi-

Horses will remain a calling card for the Horse Capital of the World, although there will be pressures from the flood of new residents to turn pastures into platted lots.

dents to turn pastures into platted lots.

Transportation will change. Commercial air service is possible, even likely. Interstate 75 will be widened. And public transit will become more widespread and necessary as the county’s industrialization expands further away from the city.

Downtown will continue to flourish and expand, with high-rise buildings a distinct possibility and much more residential development.

WHERE WILL THE GROWTH OCCUR? 600,000 people is 230,000 more than live here today. The State Road 200 corridor will continue to be “a hotbed of development in Marion County because of the availability of utilities in that area,” longtime Ocala land use lawyer Jimmy Gooding said. The opening of a new road from SR 200 to Marion Oaks and the development of the new 1,000-acre Florida Crossroads Commerce Park near Marion Oaks will mean much more growth in that corner of the county.

Kevin Sheilley, president and CEO of the Ocala Metro Chamber & Economic Partnership believes the 200 corridor will be “all the filled in” by 2050 and also sees Marion Oaks being a hotspot for new growth.

“Marion Oaks is going to be fascinating,” he said. “Marion Oaks has the potential to become a major economic node.

“It’s going to have the perfect mix of employment centers, residential, and we’re beginning to see real interest in retail there. That’s an area with tremendous potential.

Sheilley went on to say Marion Oaks “will become much more self-contained” as it grows. “The people who live in Marion Oaks won’t be leaving Marion Oaks,” he said.

Other areas of growth will be the U.S 27 corridor, which Gooding and county Planning Director Mary Elizabeth Burgess believe will be driven by the World Equestrian Center and the equine industry.

“They’re going to move here because of WEC,” said Gooding, who represents the owners of the massive equine show facility.

“They’re already moving here because of WEC.” Commercial real estate broker Bartow McDonald echoed Gooding’s assessment of WEC, saying that clients he talks to from around the country bring up WEC and Ocala’s equine reputation – in part because WEC has put new focus on breeds other than thoroughbred.

“In the conversations I’m having with prospects, often there are horses woven into their interest in Ocala,” he said.

Other areas of the county that can be expected to grow include North U.S. 441, with communities like Irish Acres and Frank Stronach’s now-closed Adena Springs Golf & Country Club already cleared and ready for expansive development. Gooding noted that not only are those large developments that are shovel-ready, but there is a lot of open land in Marion County’s north end, and that should spur “significant activity.”

The city of Ocala also expects to see significant growth. Tye Chighizola, the city director of growth management for the past 21 years, sees the downtown being a focal point for growth in the city. He looks back 30 years and remembers a downtown that was largely abandoned.

“Everything was moving out to the 200 corridor,” he said. “Nobody looked at downtown. There were no calls, there was nothing.”

Today that has changed. In a big way.

“Downtowns are coming back,” Chighizola said. “That’s what the millennials want. The downtown has to be strong for the city. Downtown is a key to continuing the growth of Ocala.”

What Chighizola envisions is a downtown that expands in size and diversity, with more residential, more office and more commercial.

The first area of growth will be in what the city has dubbed “The Midtown,” the area immediate north of the Silver Springs Boulevard from the downtown square.

“It’s critical for the downtown to grow, to move into The Midtown,” he said.

Sheilley sees the downtown expanding over the coming decades to where it will start where the hospitals are and run to north Magnolia Avenue.

Chighizola and Gooding, who for years served as an assistant city attorney, believe mid-rise and high-rise buildings – 12-18 stories – will be part of the landscape, or rather skyline, in 2050. As Gooding noted, there is limited open land in downtown, especially for office and residential projects, and going up is the only way to accommodate the projected growth. “It has to,” he said.

Chighizola said the new 44th Avenue just west of I-75 that will connect SR 200 with State Road 326 will open another area for new development.

The growth management experts agree that one thing that has to change in the coming years in to put more people on less land. In short, development has to be denser.

County Commission Chairman Jeff Gold said it is essential for the city and county to limit urban sprawl, which will mean smaller home sites and more multi-family housing, apartments, condominiums and townhouses.

“We’ve got to reduce the urban sprawl and we have to put in smart lots,” Gold said. “So, what it’s going to look like in 2050 depends on what we do today.”

McDonald concurred.

“Infill and redevelopment skills will be

"The downtown has to be strong for the city. Downtown is a key to continuing the growth of Ocala.”

the real estate skills most required versus development of urban sprawl in the pasturelands and forest,” he said.

Chighizola said the days of large homesites like in many neighborhoods of the city will not be common in 2050. He believes the change will meet resistance but is critical to the city’s continued growth, especially as more young people want to live near the downtown.

“Our key in the city, one of the things that holds us back, is people are afraid of density,” he said. “You won’t see 100-foot lots like you see in the Woodfields. There will be smaller lots.”

He also sees the Historic District changing, although it will remain the Historic District. He believes it will become “more eclectic” as older homes are torn down and new construction replaces it. There will still be architectural and design standards, but he foresees more multi-family housing mixed among the large historic homes. THE BUSINESS OF BUSINESS The CEP’s Sheilley believes Ocala’s economy will continue to diversify. He believes the local economy will see marked growth in these sectors: health care, tourism, office and logistics/industrial.

“Regardless of what happens, this is going to be a central point in Florida,” he said. “That’s a distinct advantage.”

McDonald, the commercial real estate broker, said Ocala’s location is increasingly catching the attention not only of national companies but global ones as well.

“I’m talking to global companies weekly who are looking at Ocala as strategic to global

The World Equestrian Center is going supply chains. It is kind of mind-boggling.” McDonald estimated that by 2050 to raise Ocala’s tourism profile. there will 25 million-plus square feet of distribution facilities in and around Ocala, and most of those we talked to agreed that the stretch along I-75 from U.S. 27 to SR 326 will be completely built out with distribution and industrial facilities. Sheilley said the health care industry is poised to become Ocala’s biggest industry because of the presence and steady of expansion of AdventHealth, HCA, Shands and the Veterans Administration in the community. He also believes, like Gooding and McDonald, that WEC is going to raise Ocala’s tourism profile. Sheilley also sees the Florida Aquatic Swimming Training, of F.A.S.T., at On Top of the World’s new Calesa community, also attracting large numbers of visitors. “For the first time since the decline of Silver Springs as a tourist attraction, we now have two real tourist draws,” he said. “This is our chance to really participate in Florida’s

World Equestrian Center

On Top of the World’s new Calesa community

“For the first time since the decline of Silver Springs as a tourist attraction, we now have two real tourist draws.”

tourism economy.”

More important, though, Sheilley believes with the resurgence of tourism, the expansion of health care, the growth of distribution and industrial and more office operations, that Ocala will have an economy that is diverse and, therefore, resilient when that economy sours.

As for the horse industry itself, Sheilley says that Ocala’s standing as the Horse Capital of the World is secure going forward.

“I think this may be the only place in the country where equine will keep growing,” he said.

He also made a bold prediction that by 2050 Ocala will have a race track and casino.

“All the pieces fit nicely,” he said. “It makes sense to have a race track here.”

He said such a complex would draw tourists, and wealthy ones at that.

McDonald said he foresees a regional airport in Ocala in 2050 with regular commercial air service. Chighizola agrees, and said the airport is “key” to the community’s growth.

“I would think in 30 years we will have air service,” the city planner said.

And with 600,000 residents and the rest of Florida growing along with Marion County, McDonald sees a major expansion of I-75.

“Ten or 12 lanes,” he said. “The core of Florida is still going to be where the commerce is.”

‘HOW WE HARNESS THAT GROWTH’ While those who talked to OM for this article agreed Ocala is in for big growth and big changes over the next three decades, they also were worried about what impact it would have on the environment and the character of the community if our leaders don’t plan thoughtfully.

“As a community, we will need to be wise in how we both promote and harness growth,” said McDonald, who is an avid outdoorsman. “Our rivers, lakes, springs, woodlands and wildlife will need a strong voice going forward.”

County Commissioner Gold said the fact Marion County has so much publicly held land with the Ocala National Forest, the Cross Florida Greenway and state and county parks is to its advantage but protecting them long term will require diligence and commitment.

Venerable local environmentalist Guy Marwick said it is not too early to begin setting aside even more land to protect our way of life and, critically important, our water supply. “I don’t think there’s going to be anything left of the county’s greenspace if it’s not in public ownership,” he said. “I think the horse farms will survive, but there will be fewer of them.”

Marwick said the county needs a new Pennies for Parks initiative – the 1980’s referendum that provided money to build the county’s park system -- to help put more lands in public hands “into perpetuity, because that leads to a better life, a healthier lifestyle for residents.”

“Everything that is not protected now will be built on,” he said. “We need to have more chiseled-in-stone planning and more thought about what can be saved. I don’t think it will take 30 years to be built out.”

Marwick, like McDonald, is very worried about the region’s waterways, from Rainbow Spring to Silver Springs to the Ocklawaha River.

“They’re all under threat,” he said. “They’re all under pressure from growth. It can happen very rapidly if we don’t take steps rapidly to protect them.”

“I grew up in Broward County, and it didn’t take 30 years to destroy it,” he added.

For Marwick and McDonald, the good news is the first line in outlining the purpose of the county’s Comprehensive Land Use Plan states that it is to “Promote the conservation and preservation of natural and cultural resources.”

IT’S ALL A GUESS While those who were interviewed for this story were forthcoming, Gooding offered a reality check when we initially asked him to tell us what he thought Ocala would look like in 2050:

“I have no idea what’s going to happen in Marion County over the next 30 years. Five years ago, nobody had even heard of the World Equestrian Center. And until it opened, no one realized the full magnitude or impact it would have and has already had on Marion County.”

Point taken.

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