ANNUAL MEETING AND MARKET FORECAST
COVID-19 AND REAL ESTATE
on page 26
on page 38
THE COVID-19 SHOWDOWN
LIFE IN THE TWILIGHT ZONE
on page 36
on page 40
ADAPTING TO CHANGE on page 31
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IT'S A VIRTUAL REAL ESTATE WORLD on page 34
MAKE TIME TO VOTE! The election begins Monday, May 11. Choose up to five new members of the
Orange County REALTORS®
Board of Directors Candidate statements and voting instructions appear on pages 18–23.
CONTENTS p. 30 MAY | JUNE 2020
President’s Message 8 The Black Dot Danielle Corliss tells a story to illustrate the way in which unpleasant events can disproportionately usurp your attention and encourages you to focus, instead, on your blessings.
Homeownership and COVID-19 Because June is National Homeownership Month, the focus of this issue of OC REALTOR® was originally going to be on the meaning of home and the value of homeownership. But on December 31, China informed the World Health Organization (WHO) about a suspicious cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, a large city in Hubei Province. One week later, a new type of coronavirus was identified as the cause of this disease. On February 11, WHO named the disease COVID-19, an acronym for coronavirus disease 2019. Within the next two weeks, instances of COVID-19 were identified in Europe, Iran, South Korea, Italy, and sub-Saharan Africa. On February 29, the first COVID-19 death occurred in the United States. By March 11, WHO was terming the health situation a pandemic. And on March 16, the White House issued social distancing guidelines. Abruptly, reality took an unfamiliar spin. The Orange County REALTORS® Annual Membership Meeting, which had been scheduled for March 23 at UCI, became a livestream event. And REALTORS®, whose services had been classified as essential, were forced to work in new ways. Thus, the primary focus in this issue is on the ways in which REALTORS® are coping with this new reality while helping clients realize their dreams of homeownership.
Cover Story 31 Adapting to Change Real estate visionary Stefan Swanepoel explains that an influx of capital encouraged the growth of disrupters and tells REALTORS® how to overcome this challenge.
34 It’s a Virtual Real Estate World Jonathan Marquez describes ways in which REALTORS®, who must now practice social distancing, can meet with clients, conduct tours, and stage homes virtually.
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State Update 10 Federal Paycheck Protection Programs Are Out of Money, but State Help Is on the Way. C.A.R. 2020 President Jeanne Radsick says that the California Employment Development Department is hurrying to put in place its Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program.
Features 18 Orange County REALTORS® Annual Election Sixteen candidates are running to fill five threeyear positions on the OC REALTORS® Board of Directors. Voting begins on May 11 and ends on May 16.
26 2020 Virtual Annual Membership Meeting and Market Forecast Real estate visionary Stefan Swanepoel reveals winning strategies while economist Christopher Thornberg promises that housing “will come roaring back.”
36 The Orange County Housing Update Steven Thomas describes “The COVID-19 Showdown” between supply and demand that has produced a Balanced Market.
38 CRMLS Update: COVID-10 and Real Estate In responses to frequently asked questions, the California Regional Multiple Listing Service explains the ways in which it has modified its rules to match the new reality.
40 Life in the Twilight Zone Diane Harkey discovers that the stay-at-home world of social distancing yields time for reflection and encourages readers to find ways to stay connected “to those you love—and even to those you don’t!”
CONTENTS
ORANGE COUNTY
REALTOR® MAGAZINE
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25552 La Paz Road Laguna Hills, CA 92653
10540 Talbert Avenue, Ste. 225 West Fountain Valley, CA 92708
949-586-6800
714-375-9313
www.ocrealtors.org
2020 OFFICERS Danielle Corliss President Lori Namazi President-Elect Bob Wolff Treasurer Matt Clements Immediate Past President Dave Stefanides Chief Executive Officer
2020 BOARD OF DIRECTORS
p. 18
Departments 12 Names in the News 24 Education Central: Upcoming Classes by Track 45 Mentions 46 Affiliates in Action: New REALTOR® Orientation
Olesya Drozdova Joyce Endo Dorinda Francois Michele Harrington Bob Hartman Tim Hayden Len Herman Julie Hile Jeff Jackson
Sherrie LeVan Liz Lewis Chip McAllister Charleen Nagata-Newhouse Joe Pierce Lacy Robertson Adam Rodell Lisa Schulz Jessica Siguenza
Debbie Krumboltz
Scott White
MAGAZINE STAFF Sabrina Blair
Breanna Reed
Sherri Butterfield
Ivan Salmeron
Director of Communications sabrina@ocrealtors.org Communications Specialist sherri@ocrealtors.org
Accounting Administrator breanna@ocrealtors.org Print & Marketing Specialist ivan@ocrealtors.org
Online Magazine Love the Orange County REALTOR®? Did you know that you can read it online, anytime? Read past issues at www.ocrealtors.org/magazine.
Mission Statement The mission of the Orange County REALTORS® is to promote the REALTOR® Code of Ethics; to provide education, services, and resources to our members; and to advocate the protection of real property rights.
Notice to All Members
p. 36
On the Cover The New Reality by Ivan Salmeron Because of COVID-19, the familiar world of real estate has taken an unfamiliar spin. REALTORS® must now provide their essential services in ways that are consistent with the social distancing order and with public health advisories. As a result, much that was once done face-to-face has become virtual.
Follow us on social media facebook.com/theocrealtors twitter.com/the_ocrealtors instagram.com/theocrealtors
It is the long-established policy of this Association, the California Association of REALTORS®, and the National Association of REALTORS® to adhere to both the letter and spirit of the federal and state antitrust laws. For their own protection, members should be aware of the antitrust laws as they affect their specific business activities. Any illegal activity under the state and federal antitrust laws is not in compliance with Association policy, nor is it in the interests of the Association or its members. Participation in Association activities must occur only in harmony with these very important laws. Federal law prohibits discrimination based on race, color, sex, religion, or national origin in connection with the sale or rental of residential real estate, in advertising the sale or rental of housing, in the financing of housing, and the provision of real estate brokerage services. The Orange County REALTOR® editor reserves the right to review and edit all submissions. Orange County REALTORS® makes no warranties and assumes no responsibility for the accuracy of the information contained herein. The opinions expressed in articles are not necessarily the opinions of the Orange County REALTORS®. Orange County REALTORS® does not necessarily endorse the companies, products, or services advertised in this magazine unless specifically stated. The Orange County REALTOR® (USPS 025-445, ISSN 1945-2179) Volume 11, Issue 3, is published by the Orange County REALTORS®, 25552 La Paz Road, Laguna Hills, CA 92653. Periodicals postage paid at Laguna Beach, CA, and additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to Orange County REALTORS®, 25552 La Paz Road, Laguna Hills, CA 92653-5127. Annual membership dues include $3.13 for a one-year (6 issues) subscription to the Orange County REALTOR® magazine. The Orange County REALTOR® magazine cannot be responsible for unsolicited materials. Publisher: Orange County REALTORS® Printer: The Monaco Group
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PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE
D t
The Black
Although the black dots in our lives are relatively small, they grab our attention and take up our time. By Danielle Corliss 2020 PRESIDENT, ORANGE COUNTY REALTORS® One day, a professor entered his classroom and told his students to prepare for a pop quiz. As they waited anxiously at their desks, the professor handed out the tests with the text side facing down.
thing happens in our lives. We insist on focusing only on the black dot—the health issues that bother us, money troubles, work challenges, a complicated relationship, the disappointment with a friend.”
When all the tests had been distributed, the professor told the students to turn over the sheet of paper. To everyone’s surprise, there were no questions—just a lone black dot in the center of a white sheet of paper.
Right now, our “black dot” is the coronavirus. Toilet paper and paper towels are in short supply, the lines at Costco are extremely long, Disneyland and South Coast Plaza are closed, cruises have been cancelled, students’ senior years have been foreshortened, and high school and college graduation ceremonies have been put on hold. People have been told to stay at home and to practice social distancing if they must go out. There are new things to be afraid of, new forms to master, and complicated procedures to implement. The list goes on and on.
The professor, seeing the puzzled expressions on his students’ faces, said simply, “I want you to write about what you see there.” Although the students were somewhat mystified, they got started on the task at hand. When time was up, the professor collected the papers and read each one of them aloud. Without exception, all the students had carefully described the black dot and had tried to explain its position in the center of the white sheet of paper. After all the exams had been read and the classroom was silent, the professor said, “I’m not going to grade you on this assignment. I simply wanted to give you something to think about.” Then, he went on to explain, “No one wrote about the relatively large expanse of white paper. Instead, everyone focused on the small black dot—and the same 8
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Although the black dots are very small compared to everything else we have in our lives, they grab our attention and take up our time. Do your best to take your eyes away from the black dots in your life. Focus, instead, on your blessings, and appreciate and enjoy each moment that life gives you.
Do your best to take your eyes away from the black dots in your life. Focus, instead, on your blessings, and appreciate and enjoy each moment that life gives you.
THE STATE UPDATE
FEDERAL PAYCHECK PROTECTION PROGRAMS ARE OUT OF MONEY, BUT STATE HELP IS ON THE WAY. The federal Small Business Administration says its available appropriations funding is no longer adequate, but the California Employment Development Department expects to have its Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program up and running by the end of April.
By Jeanne Radsick C.A.R. President
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Graphics by Ivan Salmeron
THE STATE UPDATE
The Small Business Administration announced in mid-April that, based on available appropriations funding, it is unable to accept new applications for either the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) or the Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL) program, including EIDL advances. EIDL applicants who have already submitted their applications will continue to be processed on a firstcome, first-served basis.
“The California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.) has written to Congress requesting that funding be increased for the Paycheck Protection Program as soon as possible.”
If you’ve already submitted an application, you should work directly with your lender to find out whether you need to supply any requested documents to continue the process. You should also feel free to submit an application if your lender is still accepting them in anticipation of additional funding from Congress.
Congress is likely to make an effort to replenish these programs as part of the next stimulus package, and the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.) has written to Congress requesting that funding be increased for the Paycheck Protection Program as soon as possible. In addition, earlier this week, California Labor Secretary
Julie A. Su announced that the California Employment Development Department (EDD) should be ready to have the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program up and running by April 28. PUA extends unemployment benefits to the self-employed and independent contractors. Once the system goes live, Su anticipates that individuals will be able to receive payments within twenty-four to forty-eight hours of their application’s being approved. We will keep you updated as soon as we have new information.
This column is based on and has been excerpted from the Monthly Message by C.A.R. President Jeanne Radsick that was distributed via email on April 16, 2020. It is being reprinted here with permission. Update: On April 23, Congress passed legislation to provide funding for two Small Business Administration (SBA) programs, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and the Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL) program. As of press time, the SBA was expected to resume lending under these programs before May 1. OC REALTOR®
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NAMES in the NEWS
Irvine Mayor Christina Shea Describes State of the City
Photo by Marion Butterfield
In a State of the City address, Irvine Mayor Christina Shea announced revival of the Community Safety Task Force, continuing efforts to make the city more environmentally friendly, coming attractions at the Orange County Great Park, and plans for additional bike and pedestrian bridges. Mayor Shea also mentioned that Irvine has set aside land in the Great Park as a site for a future cemetery and has a pledge from FivePoint Holding CEO Emile Haddad for “full funding to create a final resting place for our veterans.” Orange County Sheriff Don Barnes (on the right) is shown here with Kevin Smith (2019 Orange County REALTORS® Local Government Relations South Committee co-chair) and Lacy Robertson (LGRS chair) in a picture that was taken on July 8, when Sheriff Barnes was the featured speaker for a meeting of the LRGS Committee in Laguna Hills.
O.C. Sheriff Don Barnes Receives a Presidential Appointment On October 28, 2019, President Donald Trump signed an executive order authorizing Attorney General William P. Barr to create a commission to explore the modern issues that most affect the ability of American policing to reduce crime. Creation of this Presidential Commission on Law Enforcement and the Administration of Justice was officially announced on January 22 at a ceremony in Washington, D.C. The commission is made up of fifteen working groups, each of which specializes in a topic that affects law enforcement, including recruitment and training, refusal by state and local prosecutors to enforce laws or to prosecute categories of crimes, the need to promote public confidence and respect for the law and law enforcement officials, and the challenges and opportunities presented by technological innovations. Serving on these working groups are urban police chiefs, state prosecutors, county sheriffs, members of rural and tribal law enforcement, federal agents, U.S. attorneys, and a state attorney general. Attorney General Barr appointed Orange County Sheriff Don Barnes to the Social Problems Working Group. The commissioners will gather information through a series of hearings, panel presentations, field visits, and other public meetings at which they receive testimony from subject-matter experts, public officials, private citizens, and others who can provide insight. After a year of research, they are to report their findings to the Attorney General, who will submit a final report to the President.
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San Clemente and San Juan Capistrano Receive Grants to Create Housing San Clemente and San Juan Capistrano will receive from the California Department of Housing and Community Development grants totaling $470,000 that are intended to help these cities create more housing. San Clemente will receive $310,000 to do a survey of land available for homes and streamline the permitting process for developments. San Juan Capistrano will receive $160,000 to evaluate sites that could accommodate a higher density of homes and upgrade its General Plan to ensure consistency with state law.
Disney CEO Bob Iger Steps Aside Earlier this year, after fifteen years at the helm of the Burbank-based Walt Disney Company, CEO Bob Iger stepped aside. The Board of Directors unanimously selected Theme Park Division President Bob Chapek as his replacement. A 27-year Disney veteran, Chapek has led Disney’s Theme Park Division since 2015.
NAMES in the NEWS
San Clemente Chamber of Commerce Names Ed Molina Its 2019 Citizen of the Year At the Annual San Clemente Chamber of Commerce Installation and Awards Ceremony on February 20, former San Clemente City Council Member Lori Donchak presented the 2019 Citizen of the Year award to Ed Molina, who is chairman and chief executive officer of the local nonprofit Community Outreach Alliance (COA). In making the award, Donchak said that Molina had been “an agent for change” who “worked with great energy, providing strategic planning and a focus on growing the organization to set the stage for future growth.” Ed, who is pictured here at the Orange County Business Council’s 2020 March Primary Election Day Luncheon on Tuesday, March 3, with Orange County REALTORS® President-Elect Lori Namazi, was previously honored by OC REALTORS® as its 2016 Volunteer of the Year.
Janet Nguyen and Community Partners Distribute Rice to Seniors in Orange County On March 21, former state Senator Janet Nguyen partnered with Coast Surgery Center in Huntington Beach, Garden Grove Police Officer Association, Santa Ana Police Officer Association, and many other individuals and businesses to distribute more than 6,000 pounds of free rice to seniors seventy years old and older. In an event press release, Nguyen explained that rice, which is part of the main course for many seniors within the Little Saigon area, had been unavailable or instantly sold out at local supermarkets, leaving many seniors unable to obtain this dietary staple for themselves and their families.
NAMES in the NEWS
Poseidon Meeting Cancelled Because of Coronavirus The mid-March workshop at which the Regional Water Quality Control Board was scheduled to consider a proposal by Poseidon to build and operate a $1-billion desalination plant in Huntington Beach was cancelled because of concerns about the coronavirus. Desalinated water has long been touted as a safeguard against a severe drought, which would diminish the flow of imported water from both Northern California and the Colorado River.
Congratulations to New U.S. Citizen Cassandra Amos At a special ceremony on February 25, Cassandra Amos, an alumna of the Orange County REALTORS® Leadership Academy and a REALTOR® with Coast to Canyon Real Estate, officially became a citizen of the United States of America.
TCA Ends Effort to Extend 241 Toll Road At a board meeting on March 12, the Foothill/Eastern Transportation Corridor Agency (F/ETCA) approved a report that officially ended plans to extend the 241 Toll Road through San Clemente to connect directly with Interstate 5. In cooperation with the Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA) and the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans), the TCA will rely, instead, on a combination of three near-term improvements to address the need for traffic relief in South Orange County. These improvements are extending Los Patrones Parkway untolled from its current terminus at Cow Camp Road to Avenida La Pata, constructing one highoccupancy vehicle lane on Interstate 5 between Avenida Pico and the San Diego County line, and widening a one-mile stretch of the Ortega Highway between Calle Entradero in San Juan Capistrano and the city-county border as envisioned in OCTA’s 2008 South Orange County Major Investment Study and its 2018 Long Range Transportation Plan. 14
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Unfortunately, this hearing delay comes at the end of an unusually dry winter in Northern California, where many cities are posting record periods without precipitation. For example, San Francisco did not receive a drop of rain during the entire month of February, something that has not happened since 1864. Similarly, the Northern Sierra, an important region for California’s water supply, recorded its lowest precipitation on record for that month.
Judge Rules Addiction Is Not Automatically a Disability In a lawsuit involving the city of Costa Mesa, U.S. District Court Judge James V. Selna ruled that a history of addiction does not automatically mean a person is disabled and that people hoping to be protected by federal law must prove their disability on a case-by-case basis. If this ruling, which was announced on March 4, is upheld, it could fundamentally change the way in which cities regulate the sober-living homes that have come to dominate many residential neighborhoods in Southern California.
Congressman Rouda Helps Stranded O.C. Residents Return Home Twenty-three Orange County residents are back on American soil, and they have Congressman Harley Rouda to thank for working the magic that brought them home. The travelers had been stranded around the globe in places as remote as Peru, Morocco, North Macedonia, Honduras, Guatemala, South Africa, and India by various cancellations, closures, and shutdowns caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Rouda’s office helped them book scarce seats on the few remaining commercial airline flights, put pressure the U.S. Department of State to arrange repatriation flights, and even contacted their families to provide reassurance.
NAMES in the NEWS
SCAM WARNING Do Not Reply The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is processing Economic Impact Payments. The payments will be automatic for most taxpayers, and the IRS will use the information you provided when you filed your tax returns in 2018 and 2019. If someone contacts you by phone and requests your home address (so that the check can be mailed directly to you), your Social Security number (to verify your identity), your bank account number (so that the check can be conveniently directly deposited), or any other personal information, say nothing and hang up immediately. If, for any reason, the IRS needs additional information to process your check, it will make that request in writing.
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NAMES in the NEWS
CEO Mike Kraman Retires from TCA In early April, Mike Kraman, chief executive officer of the Transportation Corridor Agencies (TCA), informed the San Joaquin Hills Transportation Corridor Agency and the Foothill/Eastern Transportation Corridor Agency of his decision to retire from that position. Mike, who has spent thirty-five years delivering major transportation infrastructure projects, said that the recent agreement regarding how to bring much-needed traffic relief in South Orange County had provided him with an ideal opportunity to transition to the next phase in his life.
Samuel Johnson Appointed Interim CEO of Transportation Corridor Agencies On April 10, the Transportation Corridor Agencies (TCA) announced that Samuel Johnson has been appointed to the position of interim chief executive officer. Since joining the TCA in 2015 as chief toll operations officer, Johnson has been responsible for overseeing the TCA’s tolling systems, customer service, revenue management, violation processing, toll compliance, customer experience communications, and information technology functions. Recently, he championed the statewide effort to adopt sticker transponders and implemented strategic contracting approaches for systems and services that have enhanced customer service and saved the TCA millions of dollars annually.
Steven LaMotte Works to Reshape Housing Policy Steven LaMotte, the executive officer of the Building Industry Association of Southern California’s Orange County Chapter (BIA-OC), believes that the real key to making housing more affordable for more people is simply to build more of it. With other like-minded folks, he is trying to ease regulations on construction as a way of solving California’s housing crisis. He works primarily at the local level, talking with city staff members and advocating before city councils. Specifically, he says that the BIA-OC wants to reduce fees and reduce costs by expediting the process. Ultimately, says Steve, housing is a supply-and-demand issue, and what’s needed is more supply.
Names in the News column is intended to be primarily a place where REALTOR® and Affiliate members of Orange County REALTORS® can share both personal and professional news—about births (of children or grandchildren), graduations, weddings, anniversaries, accomplishments, awards, and other milestones—with one another. If you have news to share, email it to Orange County REALTORS® Writer and Editor Sherri Butterfield at Sherri@ocrealtors.org. 16
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NAMES in the NEWS
REALTORS® Attend Election Day Luncheon
Photos by Marion Butterfield
For more than twenty-five years, the Election Day Luncheon has been the place for current elected officials, former elected officials, and other political junkies to gather, meet, greet, poke fun at the political process, and enjoy a good laugh together. The Orange County Business Council’s 2020 March Primary Election Day Luncheon on Tuesday, March 3, carried on this tradition by featuring a special program titled “Orange County’s Got Political Talent.”
Among those attending the March 3 luncheon were (from left to right), in the front, Ben Medina, Lake Forest Chamber of Commerce CEO Mary Visconte, Dana Point Councilman Joe Muller, Dirissy Doan, Santa Ana Councilman Phil Becerra (Ward 4), and Fountain Valley Mayor Cheryl Brothers; and in the back row, Mary Rampone, Martin McIntosh, Rita Tayenaka, Huntington Beach Councilwoman and Orange County REALTOR® Barbara Delgleize, and Fountain Valley Chamber of Commerce CEO Memory Bartlett.
Also attending the March 3 luncheon were (from left to right), seated, Irvine Ranch Water District Director and Orange County REALTOR® Mary Aileen Matheis, Joyce Endo, and Art Sanchez; and standing, Sherri Butterfield, Bill Plattos, Yorba Linda Mayor Beth Haney, Dirissy Doan, Tiffany Gardner Wood, Steven Meves, Lori Namazi, and Dennis O’Connor.
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ANNUAL ELECTION
ORANGE COUNTY REALTORS®
ANNUAL
ELECTION ORANGE COUNTY REALTORS®
BOARD OF DIRECTORS ELECTION
Begins on Monday, May 11
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Sixteen candidates are running to fill five three-year positions. Voting in the Orange County REALTORS® Board of Directors election begins on Monday, May 11, and ends on Tuesday, May 26. Sixteen candidates are running to fill five three-year positions on the 2021–2023 Orange County REALTORS® Board of Directors. All REALTOR® members of the Association are eligible to vote.
Voting Information and Instructions Beginning on Monday, May 11, at 8:00 A.M., REALTOR® members of Orange County REALTORS® may vote at www.OCRealtors.org/election. Those who choose to submit a ballot may vote for up to five candidates but may not vote more than once for the same person. Voting concludes on Tuesday, May 26, at 5:00 P.M. You no longer need to access an email to vote. You simply need to know your OCRealtors.org/My Account user ID and password to log into the voting site, which is accessible directly from www.OCRealtors.org/election.
Voting begins on Monday, May 11, at 8:00 a.m.
The election will be held exclusively online—no more paper ballots. However, if you need assistance with the process, you may call Orange County REALTORS® at either 949-586-6800 or 714-375-9313, or email Orange County REALTORS® at election@ocrealtors.org,
Candidates The sixteen candidates are listed below in ballot order. This order conforms to the randomized drawing of letters of the alphabet conducted by the California Secretary of State on December 12, 2019, for the March 3, 2020, Presidential Primary Election. » » » » » » » »
Vinil Ramchandran Mary Jane Cambria Matt Cortez Bob Hartman Tim Hayden Dorinda Francois Olesya Drozdova Lisa Dunn
» » » » » » » »
Jerry Koller Lynne Suzanski Maureen McGrath Eduardo Molina, Jr. Lata Jobanputra Pam Pedego Cindy Uhrik Candace Burroughs
Candidate statements for these sixteen candidates appear in ballot order on pages 20–23 in this issue of OC REALTOR®.
Voting concludes on Tuesday, May 26, at 5:00 p.m. Continued on Page 20 OC REALTOR®
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ANNUAL ELECTION Continued from Page 19
Vinil Ramchandran I am passionate about advocating for property rights, ethics, and continuous improvement in everything we do to serve our REALTOR® members. My diverse background in industrial engineering, management, and business ownership has given me unique insights into the inner workings of organizations. Currently, I serve as vice chair of our Grievance Committee, and as a team leader at our Association’s Leadership Academy. I feel fortunate to be part of our wonderful organization and wish to continue supporting our members by serving on the Board. I humbly ask for your vote. • • • • • • •
REALTOR® with a Broker’s License Certified Business Broker, California Association of Business Brokers Certified Business Intermediary, International Business Brokers Association Vice Chair, OC REALTORS® Grievance Committee, 2020 Member, OC REALTORS® Grievance Committee, 2018 and 2019 Twelve years of corporate management experience with an S&P 500 company Industrial engineering experience helps me with efficiency and process improvement
Mary Jane Cambria These are unprecedented times. We need to be resilient and prepared to bring calm and past experience into our future. Being part of the leadership team in 2021 would allow me to help set policy on issues that affect and improve the lives of our REALTOR® family and the communities we serve. I hope to contribute to our shared values. We all have much to do and much to look forward to. Together, we will stand strong; and I hope that, by serving, I will make a difference. • • • • • • •
Matt Cortez Our industry faces unprecedented challenges: technology is attempting to displace us, lack of inventory puts a strain on our market, and governmental regulations create obstacles. We need to communicate the value a REALTOR® brings to buyers and sellers, and we need to focus on educating our legislators about effective real estate policy. As a Director, I will help guide the Association to confront these challenges by promoting policies that address technology, inventory, and political advocacy. • • • •
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Chair, OC REALTORS® Local Governments Relations North Committee, 2020 Key Contact for Assemblywoman Cottie Petri-Norris, 2020 Trustee, OC REALTORS® Political Affairs and Elections Committee, 2018, 2019 Graduate, OC REALTORS® Leadership Academy, Class of 2018
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Director, California Association of REALTORS®, 20 years President, Orange County REALTORS®, 2009 Former Treasurer, Orange County REALTORS® Former Director, Orange County REALTORS® Former State President, Women’s Council of REALTORS® Former President, Asian Real Estate Association of America, Orange County Chapter Thirty years of serving our industry
Bob Hartman I have been a REALTOR® for more than twenty-seven years. During that time, I have served in many capacities to improve the education, well-being, and success of our individual members. My passion is to further strengthen our Association’s charitable support of its members and to help our Association grow as a major public advocate for the rights of home ownership. As a Director, I will help our Association continue to be a leader in addressing the global, environmental, and housing issues that impact our lives and our profession. • • • • • • •
Director, California Association of REALTORS®, since 2009 Director, Orange County REALTORS®, 2018–2020 Member, NAR State and Local Issues Policy Committee, 2020 Member, C.A.R. Wildfire Insurance Working Group, 2020 Chair, C.A.R. Local Government Forum, 2019 Member, OC REALTORS® Global Business Alliance, 2017–2020 Member, OC REALTORS® Local Government Relations South Committee, 2019, 2020
ANNUAL ELECTION
Tim Hayden I believe in advocating for members’ rights and benefits. As the founding chair of the Member Benefits Committee and current chair of the Independent Broker Alliance, I brought to you MLS Touch, the Tech Hotline, Fast Stats, 45-hour License Renewal, and the Mastery Alliance Program. I volunteer as a Professional Standards Ethics Advocate and am a founding member of OCAR Cares. I understand the importance of the role played by an Orange County REALTORS® Director in serving the membership and representing our industry. • • • • • • •
Director, California Association of REALTORS®, 2011–2020 Director, Orange County REALTORS®, 2018–2020 Chair, OC REALTORS® Independent Broker Alliance, and Costume Bowl, 2020 Chair, California Association of REALTORS® Professional Development Committee, 2018 Chair, OC REALTORS® Member Benefits Committee, 2016 OC REALTORS® 2017 REALTOR® of the Year Recipient of NAR’s Gratitude Coin, C2EX Certification
Dorinda Francois Without question, we all are living in a unique time in our history. Real Estate sales and service remain an integral and viable staple in our society, particularly for entrepreneurs and small business owners. As REALTORS®, our continued advocacy for property rights, fair and affordable housing, and property tax changes is more important than ever. Risk management and professionalism in our industry are more crucial now as we pivot into this next frontier. I remain fully committed to serving you, promoting our members’ interests in moving these important issues forward. • • • • • • •
Lisa Dunn
Olesya Drozdova As never before, we are in the industry survival mode together—regardless of our brokerage affiliation or of our years of experience. I believe each of us should contribute what we can to our own organization, which supports us and our businesses in both good times and bad. My years of serving our community in various capacities prompt me to offer this experience to our shared goals of building a strong industry capable of serving the public and of enabling all REALTORS® to provide for themselves and their communities. • • • • • • •
Director, California Association of REALTORS®, 2020 Member, C.A.R. Global Forum Committee, 2020 Chair, OC REALTORS® Global Business Alliance, 2020 Chair, OC REALTORS® Leadership Academy Alumni, 2019 Member, OC REALTORS® Professional Standards Committee, 2019 Member, OC REALTORS® Green Committee, 2018–2019 Recipient, NAR Leadership Summit REALTORS® Own It Coin, 2019
Director, California Association of REALTORS®, 2019–2021 Director, Orange County REALTORS®, 2018–2020 Presiding Officer, OC REALTORS® Hearing Panel, 2019–2020 Member, OC REALTORS® Leadership and Professional Development Committee, 2019–2020 Member, OC REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service Committee, 2020 Graduate, OC REALTORS® Leadership Academy, Class of 2017 Independent Broker of Mainstay REdefined, a Commercial and Residential Brokerage
I want to be your voice at Orange County REALTORS®. As a volunteer in our Association, I have been involved in helping both our REALTOR® and our Affiliate members improve their business skills, gain technical knowledge, and learn risk management best practices. Being a practicing, producing agent out in the trenches alongside you, I will be sure that your concerns are addressed and that the Board of Directors works for and answers to you! • • • • • • •
Member, C.A.R. Director and Communications Advisory, 2020 Member, NAR Leading Edge Advisory, 2020 Member, NAR Federal Finance and Housing Committee, 2016–2019 Chair, OC REALTORS® FHA/VA Condo Project Approval Task Force President, Women’s Council of REALTORS®, South Orange County, 2019 Recipient, C.A.R. Bette Dobkin Award, 2017 Orange County REALTORS® 2013 REALTOR® of the Year
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Jerry Koller I started in real estate when I was eighteen as an investor, spent twenty years in lending, and have been licensed by the Department of Real Estate (DRE) in the great State of California since 1989. I am the owner of a medium-sized brokerage and believe that I can be of value to the Board. • • • • • •
Director, California Association of REALTORS®, 2019–2020 Vice Chair, OC REALTORS® Independent Brokers Alliance Member, OC REALTORS® Leadership and Personal Development Committee Member, OC REALTORS® Local Government Relations South Committee Graduate, OC REALTORS® Leadership Academy Owner and Operator, International Home Realty
Lynne Suzanski I earned my real estate license in 1998. Working as both a REALTOR® and an Affiliate, I see a broad range of opportunities to be the right representative for you. I have been on the Board as an appointed Director in the past and would like to continue to represent you as an elected Director. My heart has been with Orange County REALTORS® for many years, and I will continue to give input to make it the best Association for its members. Vote because you care! • • • • • •
Maureen McGrath I have a passion for real estate. I started on this amazing journey later in life. I feel more prepared and available to grow and learn, and I love helping others move forward in their lives. Buying, selling—no matter what the dream is—I love helping them move forward and watching them grow! • • • • • • •
Vice Chair, OC REALTORS® Green Committee, 2019–2020 Member, OC REALTORS® Global Business Alliance, 2020 Graduate, OC REALTORS® Leadership Academy, 2019 Certificate, Green Designation C2EX Certified Notary, State of California, 12 years Volunteer, Anaheim Police Department
Eduardo Molina, Jr. For more than twenty years, I have been an advocate for our profession and have served not only our Board but also our community in variety of ways. I believe it is imperative to keep agents informed about current legislation and to make available to them the tools and technology they need to perform their service at the highest professional level to the highest ethical standard. I look forward to serving our Board as both an advocate and a mentor for all our members. • • • • • • •
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Member, OC REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service Committee, 2018–2019 Member, OC REALTORS® Marketing Meeting and Preview Task Force, 2018–2019 Graduate, OC REALTORS® Leadership Academy, Class of 2018 Member, OC REALTORS® Affiliate Committee, 2015–Present Member, OCAR Cares Foundation, 2019 Member, OCAR Palooza Task Force
Director, California Association of REALTORS®, 2017, 2020 Member, OC REALTORS® Risk Management Committee, 2019– Present Member, OC REALTORS® Professional Standards Committee, 2019–Present Member, OC REALTORS® Bylaws Committee, 2015, 2017, 2019 Member, OC REALTORS® Cultural Diversity Committee, 2006 San Clemente Chamber of Commerce 2019 Citizen of the Year Orange County REALTORS® 2016 Volunteer of the Year
ANNUAL ELECTION
Lata Jobanputra I attended a meeting of the Orange County REALTORS® Board of Directors this past year. I was impressed with the governance of the meeting, as well as with the variety of topics discussed and the action taken. I am passionate about the real estate industry and all things related to housing. I have served on Association committees and participated in the Leadership Academy. I am now ready to give back and to serve my industry as an Orange County REALTORS® Director. • • • • • • •
Cadet, OC REALTORS® Leadership Academy Member, OC REALTORS® Global Business Alliance Member, OC REALTORS® Green Committee
President, Arborcrest Community Association Board Member, Northwood Pointe Community Association Board Member, Town, Gown, and Apron (an entity under the Olive Crest umbrella) A will to serve the members of Orange County REALTORS®
Pamela Pedego For more than forty years, I have been a member of Orange County REALTORS®. During this time, I have served on multiple committees, including Professional Standards and Education. As a mediator, arbitrator, hearing panelist, and ethics advocate, I am qualified to act in many capacities. For more than twenty years, I have been a California Association of REALTORS® Director, ensuring that my company is informed and educated about statewide issues. Now, I am ready to put my knowledge, experience, and expertise to work for Orange County REALTORS® once again. • • • • • •
Cindy Uhrik Leadership is very important to an organization; and as an alumni member of the first Leadership Academy class, I gained important insight into the mission of Orange County REALTORS® and its value to its members. I now serve on three committees, and I love the collaborative problem solving that takes place. • • • • • • •
Active REALTOR® for more than eleven years Broker since 2015 and successful team leader since 2016 Active participant on three OC REALTORS® committees during 2020 Twenty-five years of corporate experience working with Fortune 500 companies Earned the National Association of REALTORS® C2EX Certificate Graduate of OC REALTORS® Leadership Academy, Class of 2017 Able to conduct fair and balanced negotiations for successful outcomes
Orange County REALTOR® since 1978 Broker Associate, Regency Real Estate Brokers Director, California Association of REALTORS®, more than twenty years Arbitrator and Ombudsman, California Association of REALTORS® Member, OC REALTORS® Professional Standards Committee Member, OC REALTORS® Education Committee
Candice Burroughs I love being a REALTOR® in Orange County, and our industry needs leaders. I bring firsthand legislative experience and work closely with our elected officials at the city, county, and state levels; and I am involved in many nonprofit organizations. There are many forthcoming legislative issues that will directly affect you and your clients. As a Board member, I will represent you with passion and integrity, will educate and inform you, and will provide support to help protect your business. • • • • • • •
Trustee, OC REALTORS® Political Affairs and Elections Committee Broker Associate, Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices California Properties, Laguna Beach BHHS Achievements: President’s Circle, Leading Edge, Rookie of the Year Director, Laguna Beach Ocean Foundation Board Director, Laguna Beach Seniors Board District Representative, State Senator Patricia Bates, 36th District Member, Laguna Niguel Planning Committee
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ANNUAL MEETING
2020
By Sherri Butterfield
Orange County REALTORS® is the largest Association in the state and the twelfth largest in the nation. Real estate is at a crossroads, at a place where we need to reinvent our industry because it needs to change. Solving California’s housing crisis is a matter not of keeping housing affordable but of making homes available. California will get through the COVID-19 crisis and still be the Golden State, where everyone wants to live. Hang tough in the short run and wait for the long-term prize. The Orange County REALTORS® 2020 Annual Membership Meeting and Market Forecast was originally scheduled to take place in the UCI Student Center on March 23 from 11:00 A.M. to 2:00 P.M., but the arrival of COVID-19 and the social distancing order forced a last-minute change in plans. As a result, the meeting became exclusively a live stream event that more than 1,365 OC REALTORS® members signed up to view, setting an all-time Annual Meeting attendance record. Speakers during the meeting included OC REALTORS® 2020 President Danielle Corliss, OC REALTORS® Treasurer Bob Wolff, 2020 National ® Association of REALTORS President Vince Malta, 2020 California Association of REALTORS® President-Elect Dave Walsh, real estate visionary Stefan Swanepoel, who is chairman and chief executive officer of T3 Sixty, and Beacon Economics Founding Partner Christopher Thornberg, a widely recognized expert in housing and real estate markets. Their remarks are summarized below. The story Danielle told at the Annual Meeting titled “The Black Dot” appears as the President’s Message on page 8 in this issue of OC REALTOR®. Also featured in this issue (on pages 31–34) is an article by Stefan Swanepoel titled “Adapting to Change.”
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Photos by Marion Butterfield
VIRTUAL ANNUAL MEMBERSHIP MEETING AND MARKET FORECAST
ANNUAL MEETING
Bob Wolff
Orange County REALTORS® Treasurer’s Report
Our Association remains in a strong financial position. In 2018, our auditors gave us a clean review, and we expect to receive a similar result when they audit our 2019 financials later this year. During 2019, Orange County REALTORS® served 14,475 REALTORS® and 748 Affiliates with a Management Team of 33 employees. Although the rate of membership growth has slowed, Orange County REALTORS® remains the largest local Association of REALTORS® in California and ranks twelfth in the nation. Our robust membership allows us to make available to our members a broad range of worthwhile programs and educational opportunities at no charge. During 2019, our total revenue was $7,000,000, of which $450,000 was the realized and unrealized gain from our Morgan Stanley investment. Our total net expenses were $6,090,000, which resulted in a total net income of $913,000, or a net operational income of $465,000 before investment gains. We currently have on hand 5.4 months of reserves, which is the recommended range for our industry. Both our REALTOR® and Affiliate members continue to show their strong support for OCAR Cares through their generous contributions and through participation in and sponsorship of special fundraising events. As a result, the 2019 year-end balance for this member relief fund was $167,000. During the recent membership renewal period, our members made voluntary contributions totaling $144,000 to the REALTOR® Action Fund. These monies are used throughout the year to support individual political candidates who are REALTOR® friendly, to encourage government policies that protect real property rights, and to support community activities that promote and enhance the REALTOR® brand.
Vince Malta
National Association of REALTORS® Update
The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) has 1.4 million members. Our core value is members first. We send updated information on a timely basis, providing data and perspectives from markets around the country. Recently, Congress passed—and President Donald Trump signed—a bill that included a relief package for small business owners. In an election year, NAR is working to elect pro-REALTOR® candidates across the United States. COVID-19 is our latest crisis, and we’ll get through it.
Dave Walsh
California Association of REALTORS® Update
As I address the largest Association of REALTORS® in the state of California, all I can think about is: What’s coming next? Approximately 80 percent of our service industry is now—or soon will be—out of work. There is still a statewide housing shortage. Optimistically, I am hoping for an August-September Spring Market. I am guessing that the unemployment numbers will settle down sometime in the fourth quarter. The bottom line is this: We will get through this. And we will still be the Golden State, where everyone wants to live.
“We will get through this. And we will still be the Golden State, where everyone wants to live.” - Dave Walsh OC REALTOR®
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ANNUAL MEETING
Stefan Swanepoel
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, T3 Sixty
Adapting to Change
We REALTORS® are in a cycle. We start, we grow up, and we mature. Then, we look around and ask, “Do I need to change?” Real estate is at a crossroads, at a place where we need to reinvent our industry because it needs to change. New Models. Consumerism, mobile technology, online shopping, electronic data management—the individual concepts are not important. What is important is the concept that we are constantly evolving. We are not at the end of time. We are not going to die. Real estate is not going to go away. New models—disrupters—have come along, but they are not going to put us out of business. Capital Influx. From 2014 to 2019, the amount invested annually in real estate jumped nearly 500 percent, from $724.7 billion in 2014 to $3,346.9 billion in 2019. This capital influx was enough to redefine values, change the rules, increase the velocity with which newer companies grew, and alter the ways in which the competitive landscape shifts. Capital creates new winners.
“New models—disrupters—have come along, but they are not going to put us out of business.” - Stefan Swanepoel
Disrupters. Disrupters want part of our market share and are going to look for your weaknesses. For example, Walmart had no planes; Amazon attacked them at a level that they did not expect and for which they were not prepared. The data strongly suggest that the residential real estate brokerage industry is more than halfway down the path of one of the most significant transitions in its 150-year history. Winning Strategies. You can grow with different strategies. No one strategy is the be-all and end-all. A winning strategy contains the following elements: • Willingness. Be willing to discard current practices that are not working and to consider new models and methods. • Awareness. Be able to look ahead and even to peer around the corner. • Innovation. View change as a good thing. Think of it as growing up. • A clear roadmap. Make sure that you know where you have come from and where you want to go. • Energy. Have enough energy to move quickly and even to accelerate when necessary. • Focus. Do not allow yourself to become easily distracted; stay focused on your destination or goal. • Persistence. Once you know where you are going, have the fortitude and persistence to stay the course. You are not going to become extinct, so plan for the future.
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ANNUAL MEETING
Christopher Thornberg
Founding Partner, Beacon Economics
The Economic Outlook: Local Trends/Global Fears People are inclined to panic first and ask questions later. The U.S. Economy. The economy has been doing just fine. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth is not too hot, not too cold. Consumer spending is supported by strong fundamentals. Housing markets were bouncing back. Labor markets remain tight. Wages are on the rise. Interest rates are down, inflation is constrained, the savings rate is drifting up, and consumer spending has been healthy. The longrun problems are (1) political extremism, (2) the growing disconnect between economic reality and policy, (3) the incredible shrinking local housing supply, and (4) the coronavirus. The Coronavirus. The coronavirus is a black swan event—a surprise that people did not anticipate, one that creates, in Donald Rumsfeld’s words, “an unknown unknown.” The question right now is: Is the cure worse than the disease? The U.S. economy came to this crisis with strong fundamentals. Losses in some sectors can be made up elsewhere in the economy. This is only the first quarter. The Labor Market. What’s pushing consumer spending? A very strong labor market. Unemployment is at a fifty-year low. The real problem is the inability of employers to fill job openings. Because of the tight labor market, U.S. workers are seeing real wage gains. People are getting ahead. The real problem is the decline of the U.S. labor force, and that problem is demographic. California’s Slowing Job Growth. In California, jobs can’t find workers. We have the weakest labor force growth we’ve seen in fifty years. And one of the reasons is the housing crisis. Simply put, workers can’t find housing in their price range. And so you can’t have job growth because there isn’t anyone to hire. The Housing Market. Is this a fragile housing market? Absolutely not. Just like the consumer market is healthy, the real estate market is also healthy. The cause of California’s housing crisis is not affordability. It’s a supply shortage. It’s not a matter of keeping housing affordable; it’s a matter of making housing available. The housing availability issue is becoming acute throughout Southern California. Building permits are nowhere near what they once were. We simply are not building enough housing.
“It’s not a matter of keeping housing affordable; it’s a matter of making housing available.” - Christopher Thornberg Cities want industrial, commercial, and retail development because of the tax revenues these types of development produce. Cities don’t necessarily want housing because this type of development generates additional demands for municipal services without contributing much to city coffers. One approach might be for Governor Gavin Newsom to pay cities to build housing. The Big Picture. Don’t let the doomsayers get in your head. The California economy is dynamic. People want to be here. Business wants to be here. Housing will come roaring back because prices and interest rates are good and people want to buy homes. Don’t allow the weapons of mass distraction to get in your head. Hang tough in the short run and wait for the long-term prize.
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COVER STORY
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COVER STORY
Photo by Marion Butterfield
Change is inevitable. The way to survive is to adopt new ways of doing business and to adapt old ways to be in harmony with today’s new realities.
By Stefan Swanepoel Chairman and CEO, T3 Sixty, LLC
This article is based on a presentation that was given by Stefan Swanepoel, chairman and chief executive officer of T3 Sixty, at the Orange County REALTORS® Annual Meeting and Market Forecast on March 23, 2020. Because of the coronavirus slowdown, the great changes pushing the real estate industry in new directions are becoming even more apparent. In some ways, the widespread self-quarantine many of us face in America brings the digital real estate transaction, the prevalence of our online world, and the related opportunities and challenges into greater relief. For all of us with businesses in the established paradigm, this can lead to fear and uncertainty. But we should not get stuck with these feelings because they keep us from addressing the realities of our rapidly evolving industry. More important, brokers and agents have always had to adapt to large industry changes. In fact, adapting to elemental shifts in business, competitors, and new technologies and models is a fundamental part of operating a successful, lasting real estate business. In every era, real estate brokers and agents have had to adapt to massive change and new disruptions. Similarly, though the specifics are unique, this era will require existing businesses to react if they want to make it through and thrive.
Lessons from the Past After conducting a thorough historical industry analysis, we at T3 Sixty have uncovered a pattern of innovation cycles—or stages, as we call them—whose spans range between about thirteen and eighteen years (see Table 1). A different component drives each stage. Our current era, which began in approximately 2012, is dominated by the great amount of capital pouring into the industry. We believe—and hope—that the coronavirus, which is creating a major disruption now, will be relatively short-lived; however, it may cut short Stage 9. From 2014 to 2019, the amount invested annually in real estate jumped nearly 500 percent, from $724.7 billion in 2014 to $3,346.9 billion in 2019. This capital influx greatly increases the velocity with which newer companies grow, the ways in which the competitive landscape shifts, and how the industry changes. Companies such as Zillow Group, Compass, Redfin, and eXp Realty embody this new era; in just two decades, they have become among the nation’s largest real estate companies.
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Table 1. Innovation Cycles
Source: T3 Sixty
Table 2. Time to Reach 10,000 Agents Coldwell Banker
70 years
Keller Williams Realty 18 years eXp Realty
8 years
Source: T3 Sixty
Comparing brokerage agent count growth helps makes clear the speed of this growth. It took Coldwell Banker, founded in 1906, seventy years to grow to 10,000 agents. It took Keller Williams Realty, founded in 1983, only eighteen years to hit that mark. EXp Realty, founded in 2009, reached that mark in just eight years (see Table 2). This growth carries over into the way in which both investors and many in and outside the industry perceive the value of these companies. For example, before the stock market took the coronavirus hit this year, Wall Street valued sixteen-year-old Zillow Group at approximately $12 billion, roughly the combined value of Realogy, RE/MAX, Keller Williams Realty, HomeServices of America, and some of the nation’s largest independents.
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Movement for the Future We point out these industry changes not to instill panic but to facilitate a conversation grounded in reality and to emphasize the need for all of us to make smart decisions, move quickly, and adapt. Existing real estate players will not go away; but disruptors, fueled by lots of capital, will take market share from those who do not move swiftly to address the new operating environment. This includes players at every level of the industry: agents, broker leaders, and Association executives. The question is: How do we respond? The first step is to recognize what is happening, which the preceding section outlines: capital investment in the industry is rapidly reshaping the industry as we know it. The next step is to develop a nimble, adaptive mindset. Be willing to change established practices and procedures, look at the business in new ways that take advantage of new opportunities, and respond to new competitive forces. In periods of rapid change, it is important to maintain a forward-looking gaze, monitor the landscape closely, and assess what may be coming around the next corner. Then, we must have the courage and conviction to move quickly and to accelerate into the decisions we need to make.
LESSONS FROM PREVIOUS STAGES
Be willing to discard current practices.
Have a clear roadmap.
Be ready to change and improve.
Look ahead and around corners.
Have the energy to move quickly and to accelerate.
Have the fortitude and persistence to stay the course
Finally, we must have the fortitude to stay the course, and we must keep up the energy to remain nimble and to adapt and refine our businesses. To help you navigate the specific challenges we face now with a coronavirus-led slowdown, T3 Sixty has prepared three documents about how to control expenses in a downturn, how to help agents stay productive, and what to do with staffing levels. You can read and download these documents at www.t360.com/downturnguides. Stefan Swanepoel is the chairman and chief executive officer of T3 Sixty, a firm that provides management consulting and counseling to real estate C-level executives, organized real estate leaders, brokerowners, and leaders of high-performance teams to help them grow their businesses. Exclusively serving the residential real estate brokerage industry, T3 Sixty (www.t360.com) offers in-depth research, information, and best practices with its hallmark Swanepoel Trends Report, an annual analysis of the biggest trends affecting the industry and the Real Estate Almanac, an annual encyclopedic ranking of all companies, Associations, Multiple Listing Services,
technology providers, and leaders in the residential real estate industry.
“We must have the
fortitude to stay the course, and we must keep up the energy to remain nimble and to adapt and refine our businesses.
”
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COVER STORY
Fortunately, many new products are available to help you run your real estate business effectively in this brave new world. By Jonathan Marquez
There is no doubt that life as we know it will not be the same after COVID-19. REALTORS® have had to learn new skills to keep their careers running. The life we previously knew has changed, but with this change comes hope for the future through innovation and creativity. REALTORS® were forced to devise creative workarounds for meeting with clients, showing houses, and getting through the escrow process. This article describes some of the amazing technology that has surfaced during the pandemic and how to use these new products to create a post-COVID-19 future.
Virtual Meetings with Zoom When life shifted dramatically because of the state’s stay-at-home order, most of us thought this new reality would put a halt to meetings in general and make all of us even more reliant upon emails. What no one anticipated was the boom of Zoom. With a few clicks of your mouse, you could find yourself face-to-face, virtually, with your co-workers, existing clients, and even new clients by using the Zoom platform. Zoom’s user interface is simple to use and easy to understand. All you need is a camera and a microphone.
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Zoom can be used with your desktop, laptop, tablet, or phone. By means of this platform, REALTORS® can conduct listing appointments, property showings, and any other meetings regardless of their location. To learn more and sign up, visit www.zoom.us.
Virtual Tours with Asteroom As REALTORS® learned that they could no longer host open houses and showings were restricted by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines, many felt their sales slipping away. Even if the seller were willing to allow showings, would any buyers want to walk through a house? Fortunately, great alternatives like Asteroom were created to address this type of concern. Asteroom offers the Pano Kit, which allows anyone to create virtual 3D walkthroughs with just a tripod and a smartphone. Asteroom’s product takes advantage of the high-quality cameras we all carry around on our smartphones. All you need to do is attach Asteroom’s Pano Kit on your phone, and it will scan the entire room to take 360-degree panoramas with your phone’s camera lens.
Graphics by Ivan Salmeron
Do this for every room in the house and the hallways. Afterward, the app will stitch together the photos to create a virtual walkthrough of the property. Once the walkthrough has been created, it will be hosted on a website with no branding, perfect for adding to your Multiple Listing Service (MLS) listing! This is a great way to get new eyes on your properties, at a super affordable price. Asteroom is currently offering a discounted price of $79 (MSRP $89) to all Orange County REALTORS® members, plus you will receive one free dollhouse processing, one image enhancement, and one month of membership. To take advantage of this offer, visit www.ocrealtors.org/asteroom.
Virtual Staging with BoxBrownie.com Another hiccup facing the industry is the instruction that home staging must be done virtually and not physically. With that said, BoxBrownie.com is one of the online providers of virtual staging. If you have a vacant listing, you can now have it virtually staged for only $32 per room. BoxBrownie.com states that homes that are
“Set the scene
and bring your properties to life with virtual staging!” staged sell 75 percent faster than empty properties, and that 83 percent of staged properties will sell for at or above the asking price. BoxBrownie.com offers a variety of styles to stage your properties, including modern, traditional, farmhouse, urban, and more! So why leave it up to the potential buyer’s imagination? Set the scene and bring your properties to life with virtual staging! To learn more, visit www.boxbrownie.com/virtual-staging.
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The “supply problem” that has been around for years is now going head-to-head with a new kind of “demand problem.” By Steven Thomas REPORTSONHOUSING.COM
A lot of people assume the worst. Because of COVID-19 and the stay-at-home order that is in effect across the United States, the economy has come to a complete halt, and the country has been thrown into an instant recession (perhaps more accurately called a “pandession”). As a result, the minds of so many immediately gravitate to the most recent recession, the Great Recession, when housing took a giant hit and property values in Orange County dropped 30 percent. Everyone was either impacted by the freefall of values or knew someone who was hurt by that unprecedented real estate slump. Since this is another recession, values will certainly drop, right? Not so fast. It all boils down to supply and demand. Here’s a quick history lesson about what led to the Great Recession. In March of 2007, the subprime lending industry collapsed. Demand instantly dropped to levels that were much like today. Yet, there were more than four times the number of homes on the market compared with today, reaching nearly 18,000 homes. With very low demand and a huge supply of homes, the housing market ground to a halt and home values plunged. Because of the number of risky subprime loans, pick-a-payment loans, and zero-downpayment loans in the system, the collapse in the credit and housing market was followed by a tsunami of distressed properties. The overly abundant supply and the unstable credit foundation of the housing stock led to the tumble in values.
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But that’s not where housing is today. Yes, there is now a “demand problem,” where buyers’ activity has substantially slowed to Great Recession levels. It’s unbelievable how demand shifted so quickly from humming on all cylinders one month ago to a snail’s pace today. Yet, the “demand problem” is starkly contrasted with the “supply problem”—there simply are not enough homes listed for sale. The showdown between the countervailing forces of supply and demand is moving housing toward a Balanced Market, a market that does not favor either buyers or sellers and one in which values do not change much at all. Low demand pushes the market in the buyer’s favor; however, low supply pushes it in the seller’s favor. As a result, a balance occurs. Demand, the past thirty days of pending sales activity, dropped by 34 percent from mid-March to the beginning of April. It dropped to levels not seen since the start of 2020, a snapshot of the lowest demand of the year, the holidays. There are still buyers in the marketplace, especially below $1 million, but not nearly the number that anybody is accustomed to seeing in the middle of the Spring Market. Demand was 54 percent higher last year at the start of April. Only a month earlier, in the first week of March, demand was at levels last seen in 2017. In comparing April’s demand to 2017, it was 87 percent higher back then. COVID-19 has affected demand significantly and has resulted in a “demand problem” (see Figure 1).
THE ORANGE COUNTY HOUSING UPDATE
But today’s housing market is affected by a “supply problem” as well. Buyers can attest to not having enough available homes to purchase. In fact, there are 39 percent fewer homes compared with last year. Ordinarily, the active inventory grows in April and May. This year, it increased by just 24 homes from midMarch to the beginning of April, up 0.6 percent. In the past five years, on average, the inventory has grown by 5 percent during this same period. With demand slumping, the inventory should rise, yet that is not the case. Instead, fewer homeowners are placing their homes on the market during the spring, which typically is the busiest time of the year for housing. In the past five years, an average of 3,960 homes were placed on the market in March. This year, only 2,822 were placed on the market during this period, a stunning 29 percent fewer, or 1,138 less. Some 818 homes are on Hold Do Not Show. With fewer homes entering the fray and many sellers opting to place their homes on “hold,” the inventory remains anemic (see Figure 2). Weak demand has been pitted against a very low supply of homes to purchase. For this reason, the market is moving toward a Balanced Market, not a Buyer’s Market. The good news for buyers is that they no longer need to rush to purchase. Multiple offers and buyers tripping over one another are no longer the norm. But that does not mean that buyers are going to get “a deal.” This is not the Great Recession. That was a deep Buyer’s Market fueled by an oversupply of homes and a housing stock built on risky loans.
Figure 1. COVID-19 has affected demand significantly, creating a new kind of “demand problem.”
The showdown has begun. The “supply problem” has been matched with a “demand problem.” The combination of these two forces has slowed housing to a Balanced Market.
Steven Thomas has a degree in quantitative economics and decision sciences from the University of California, San Diego, and more than twenty years of experience in real estate. His bimonthly Orange County Housing Report is available by subscription and provides housing market analysis that is easy to understand and useful in setting the expectations of both buyers and sellers. His website is www.ReportsOnHousing.com.
Figure 2. Because so few homes were placed on the market in March, the inventory remains anemic, which has resulted in a “supply problem.”
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CRMLS UPDATE
COVID-19 and Real Estate
The California Regional Multiple Listing Service answers your frequently asked questions about dues payments, Hold restrictions, Days on Market, rules changes, and the Clear Cooperation Policy.
Can I still practice real estate? Yes. So long as you follow the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.) Stay-at-Home Guidelines, your ability to practice real estate is otherwise not prohibited. Specific attention should be given to current C.A.R. guidance providing that “REALTORS® should cease doing all in-person marketing or sales activities, including showings, listing appointments, open houses, and property inspections.”
Can I get relief on dues payments? Perhaps; however, CRMLS does not handle dues billing. Please contact your local Association or Board with all dues-related questions.
Has CRMLS lifted Hold restrictions? Yes. The CRMLS Board of Directors has voted to remove the thirty-day time limitation for Hold statuses. This change is only applicable to Matrix and Flex system users.
Will CRMLS freeze Days on Market (DOM)? No. The CRMLS Board of Directors has decided not to move forward with a freeze on Days-on-Market calculations. CRMLS’s lift of Hold restrictions for Matrix and Flex system users will accomplish much of what a freeze would, while also maintaining a factually accurate MLS database.
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What is CRMLS doing from a rules perspective to assist real estate professionals? Here is a list, as of March 24, 2020. Please note that this list applies only to users of the Matrix and Flex systems.
1. There is a new Hold status rule definition. The
CRMLS Board of Directors has approved the following definition for the Hold status: “A valid listing contract exists, and no offer has been accepted. The Listing Broker is in possession of a seller written instruction to submit the listing as ‘Hold’. This instruction may be due to various reasons such as multiple quality offers already received, repairs, illness, guests, etc. Marketing and Advertising as defined in Rule 7.9.1 is permitted. The property is not available for showings consistent with Rule 9.3.”
2.
The thirty-day Hold limit has been lifted. This change allows a listing to go into Hold status for longer than thirty days. CRMLS users can now enter the Hold Activation Date to any time in the future. This change goes into effect immediately and will remain in effect until further notice. Remember, listings in Hold status do not go out to portals like Zillow, Trulia, and Realtor.com.
3.
Unbranded Virtual Tours are allowed in Public Remarks. You may include a link to an unbranded virtual tour in the Public Remarks field.
& QA
“REALTORS® should cease
doing all in-person marketing or sales activities, including showings, listing appointments, open houses, and property inspections.
”
Is CRMLS planning any additional changes? Yes. Here is a list, as of March 24, 2020. Please note, that the listed changes apply only to users of the Matrix and Flex systems.
1.
Links to Virtual Open Houses and Virtual Showings will be temporarily allowed in Public Remarks. A Virtual Open House is defined as one in which a Listing Agent invites any number of people to participate in a scheduled event set for a specific time to view the property and interact with the Listing Agent virtually. A Virtual Showing is defined as a scheduled event between the Listing Agent and a specific potential buyer. You may now include a link to and a time for a scheduled Virtual Open House, or a line to set up a Virtual Showing, in the Public Remarks field. Rule 11.5 (e) regarding No Branding in the Public Remarks field will be temporarily suspended only for Virtual Open Houses and Virtual Showings until further notice.
2.
Virtual Showings and Virtual Open Houses will gain dedicated fields. To allow real estate professionals to distinguish between in-person showings and open houses and virtual ones, CRMLS plans to update its MLS systems to allow differences between in-person and virtual.
In light of the current situation, is the Clear Cooperation Policy still going into effect on May 1? Yes. The new Rules that implement the Clear Cooperation Policy will take effect on May 1, 2020. For more information about this topic, visit https://go.crmls.org/clear-cooperation-policy/. For up-to-date news regarding the ways in which the California Regional Multiple Listing Service is responding to changing realities in the age of the novel coronavirus, visit the dedicated COVID-19 resources page on the CRMLS website. This question-and-answer piece is based on and has been excerpted from a column titled “Answers to Your Frequently Asked Questions” that was sent out by the California Regional Multiple Listing Service (CRMLS) on March 24 in an email bearing the subject line “FAQs on COVID-19 and Real Estate.” It is being reprinted here with permission.
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THOUGHTS ABOUT STAYING HOME
The stay-at-home world of social distancing creates time for reflection. BY DIANE HARKEY
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On the Bright Side Lock-Down Lessons Learned
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The Twilight Zone Redeux? When viewing the empty streets of New York City, Los Angeles, other normally bustling urban centers, and our own hometown, one cannot help but recall the 1959 television series The Twilight Zone. Life in the Twilight Zone leaves a lot of time for reflection. For instance, I was texting with my cousin, who lives in Illinois, with whom I grew up during the first ten years of my life, along with numerous other cousins, aunts, and uncles. Our families had weekly Sunday dinners at Grandma’s house. Grandma was young, vibrant, and happy; and we loved going to her house. We held birthday parties and other celebrations at Grandma’s, or we rotated family backyards for barbecues and major holidays. We rolled down hills, stalked through mini neighborhood forests, knew to look both ways before crossing the street, and knew how to avoid snakes and bad people. We generally banded together in groups for winter sleigh rides down steep hills with our individual Radio Flyers, which sometimes were double loaded. We dug caves in the vacant fields (underground forts) that the boys grouped in and the girls were only allowed to view from the outside. (Some like me, with a wonderful big brother, did sneak in from time to time.) And yes, we suffered a few crashes, cuts, bruises, and spankings for pursuing dangerous behavior that we had been warned to avoid. We all knew to obey the teacher and the police, and to show respect for adults or we would face punishment at home. Yes, there were racial tensions and segregation that has—thankfully—been eroded; I got beat up a few times for being in the wrong color in the wrong place at the wrong time. We also drank from the garden hose; suffered through measles, mumps, and chicken pox; and for some reason, seem to be the strong ones, carrying our families through this pandemic without illness, yet.
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“We became very self-sufficient at a young age because we were poor, but didn’t know it, and just did what we had to do to live well, follow our dreams, and stay connected to those we loved.” While life as we know it has changed, I thank God for the way I was raised. We became very self-sufficient at a young age because we were poor, but didn’t know it, and just did what we had to do to live well, follow our dreams, and stay connected to those we loved. I hope you are remaining strong, putting the extra time you may have to good use, and staying connected to those you love—and even those you don’t. Know that this too will pass. We are finding treatments, and we will find a cure. Life will go on, and the sooner the better for all of us, I’m sure.
Diane Harkey is a former California legislator and chairwoman of the California State Board of Equalization. This column was taken from a newsletter titled “Life in the Twilight Zone” that was distributed via email by Diane Harkey on April 9, 2020. It is being reprinted here with her permission.
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MENTIONS
A-tisket, a-tasket, a green and yellow basket . . .
THANK YOU FOR
THE EASTER
BASKETS! Dirissy, On behalf of the Marines and families of Camp Pendleton, allow me to say a big THANK YOU for the Easter baskets. They were beautiful, and being able to bring one home was such a treat! Thank you for your generous donation. We truly appreciate it. Very respectfully,
Jenna Minter Deployment Readiness Coordinator 9th Communication Battalion (EDITOR’S NOTE: The Easter Basket Drive was held from March 16 through March 31 to benefit the Orange County Gang Reduction Intervention Partnership (OC-GRIP). Members of Orange County
REALTORS® were encouraged to fill baskets with art supplies, baseballs, basketballs, books, candy and snacks, hair products, headphones, and other similar items and to drop them off at any Marking Meeting, at either OC REALTORS® office, or at K.C.& Company Gift Baskets in Laguna Hills. When the novel coronavirus unexpectedly resulted in a quarantine, the baskets were rerouted to some grateful Marine families at Camp Pendleton.
CALL FOR CONTENT TO BE INCLUDED ON THE MAGAZINE MENTIONS PAGE Orange County REALTORS® and OC REALTOR® welcome emails and social media postings for possible publication on the Mentions page in this magazine. These written materials should be brief (about 150 words) and cover real estate–related topics. They might offer comments, make suggestions, ask questions, or contain tips or ideas based on personal experience and intended to help REALTORS® in some way. Submitted emails and media postings must include the writer’s name and email address (for verification) though only the name will be published. They also should include any title or affiliation by which the writer wishes to be identified in a single line below his or her name. All written material may be edited for content, length, or style and may appear either online or in print. Emails become the property of Orange County REALTORS®. Although some may be answered, none will be returned. Emails intended for publication should be sent either to Director of Communications Sabrina Blair at Sabrina@ocrealtors.org or to Writer and Editor Sherri Butterfield at Sherri@ocrealtors.org. OC REALTOR®
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AFFILIATES IN ACTION
February 20, Fountain Valley
Orange County REALTORS® thanks the Affiliates who assisted at the New REALTOR® Orientation on February 20 and congratulates the new REALTOR® members who joined Orange County REALTORS® on that occasion.
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Affiliates who helped Orange County REALTORS® welcome new REALTOR® members on February 20 in Fountain Valley were (from left to right) Gleyde Schatz, Caliber Home Loans; Dave Mendoza, Realty Graphics; Cheryl Esquer, Concord Escrow; “Dsny” Debbie Sinclair, Amethyst Locksmith; Paula Camarena, Pillar to Post; Steve Taylor, Steve Taylor Photographic Design; Affiliate North Chair Kerri Finch, J&J Coastal Lending; and Affiliate North Co-Chair Mike Grambow, American Pacific Mortgage. Also helping to welcome new REALTOR® members was Orange County REALTORS® Chief Executive Officer Dave Stefanides (at the far right).
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