Defence and Security Alert Magazine (DSA) April 2017 Edition by Ocean Media

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april 2017

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Indo-Pak Line of Fire

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ammu and Kashmir is regarded as the unfinished business of partition. Indeed it is, in a political sense of the word. Since both India and Pakistan have been at each other after they separated at birth. And they’ve been at each other over Kashmir, at least in the public domain. The atmospherics declare that Muslim majority Kashmir opted for India once the Maharaja signed the Instrument of Accession, the formal deed that merged various princely states with either of the separating countries. Chronological evidences suggest that the signature was preceded by a Pakistan sponsored ‘tribal’ invasion of the Valley. This dependence on irregular troops has been one enduring feature of Pakistan’s Kashmir policy and remains at its core even in 2017. If they were marauding Frontier tribes in 1947-48 who simply followed in the footsteps and practices of their forefathers, in 2017 it is a melange of faith and mythology. As in 1947-48 so in 2017, the common people suffer the brunt of attacks and prejudice. So schools burn, simply because they teach. And dropouts become cult heroes through an elaborate social media campaign, aimed at creating disorder and disharmony. The loss is of Kashmir. India, however, takes it more seriously than simply a law and order issue. And likewise, Pakistan takes it more than simply a matter of faith. Although in both the cases, the publicly stated claims are law and order, and faith. In Pakistan’s case, the deep underlying and unstated motive is the control over river waters that flow through Kashmir. A water dependent country, and one that splurges rather than conserves, Pakistan is perennially paranoid about its tap being turned off by India. Not that India has done anything about it but the paranoia remains. As it does over Balochistan. In the last decade, the shrillness about India’s interference in Balochistan has grown to such a chorus that a reasonable debate seems well nigh impossible now. Not that much needs to be debated, for Balochistan is unlike any other South Asian insurgency or uprising. It is unique in its own way since it’s history is unlike most of South Asia. Balochistan is in fact a bridge state, one that connects a region to another, quite like Afghanistan does between South and Central Asia. So, for centuries, Balochistan was the frontier, political and cultural, between Hind and Fars.

It remained so until the British decided to put everything on record, and a finality to things, much like they did elsewhere in their domains. Except that Balochistan, at least most of it, was excluded from their domains earlier than the rest of them and a formal treaty was entered into between the Khan of Kalat and the British Empire. As a result, Balochistan attained independence before the rest of South Asia, enacted their own laws and assemblies well before either of the two dominions. The vast underpopulated landscape, however, didn’t stand a chance in an era of ideological warfare. In the name of Islam and the Land of the Pure, Mohammad Ali Jinnah ordered the extinguishing of Balochistan’s independent flame shortly after freedom. In fact, in less than 250 days of liberty, Balochistan was once again bound by another ruler and another capital. Till this date, that hasn’t gone down too well with the people of Balochistan and they’re in perpetual revolt. Unlike Hyderabad, for example, the princely state that suffered a similar fate. The ‘police action’ against Hyderabad is the closest to what occurred in Balochistan but that is where the similarity ends. For the Nizam wanted Pakistan in the heart of India while Balochistan wanted freedom on the frontier where it belonged. Indians generally get themselves in a twist when it comes to Kashmir and Balochistan, and have only themselves to blame for their ignorance. The two are completely different cases, one created by centuries of homogeneity and Kashmir is a creation of imperial transaction. The historical, sociological and cultural conditions of the two societies are completely at variance with each other, as is the landscape. Which is where India’s armchair strategists err in believing Pakistan can be returned the favour of Kashmir in Balochistan. The soil, in every sense of the word, is different. Ground realities must always dictate policy, rather than policy trying to justify mythical realities. Clever statesmanship is all about keeping ear and nose to the ground and then making policy.

Manvendra Singh April 2017

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Volume 8 | Issue 7 | April 2017 Chairman Shyam Sunder Publisher and ceo Pawan Agrawal President Urvashi J Agrawal Director Shishir Bhushan Editorial Editor-in-Chief Manvendra Singh Associate Editor Supriya Aggarwal Assistant Editor Diana Mehra

Balochistan:

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The Counterpoint

he signs came in quick succession that Pakistan and China were preparing to present India with a fait accompli in Jammu and Kashmir. First, Pakistan and then China called on India to participate in the creation of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor connecting the Chinese province of Xinjiang with the Gwadar seaport on the Balochistan coastline that dominates the North Arabian Sea through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. With India refusing to commit geostrategic harikiri by joining the project, PoK announced that it would only be formally annexing the territory in Jammu and Kashmir that it had illegally occupied in 1948 and designating it as the “Fifth Province” of Pakistan. That China and Pakistan were preparing to place a steel collar around India’s throat was known from the moment Beijing announced the One Road, One Belt policy for connectivity with West Asia and Europe. This was supported by the induction of about 9,000 troops of the People’s Liberation Army into Pakoccupied Kashmir very obviously to protect Chinese interests in the region. What has been put in place for the defence of Chinese interests in the PoK is a hybrid phalanx of the regulars of the PLA and the “sub-conventional” terrorists of the Jaish-e-Mohammad, Lashkar-e-Toiba and the Hizbul Mujahideen. The stakes are very high because China has launched the multi-billion dollar investment to be able to cut travel time for goods and energy from the Persian Gulf and it is through the Gilgit-Baltistan segment of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, the corridor must traverse to be economically viable. As a counterpoint, Prime Minister Modi has made it clear that India will support the people of Balochistan and the Gilgit-Balawaristan movement in their endeavours to free themelves from the tightening Sino-Pak grip on their homelands. The current Gilgit-Baltistan announcement will create more such non-cooperation movements against the Pakistan government and I think that Pakistan must reconsider several times before taking such anti-India decisions. Such activities will not bring peace and prosperity to the people of Pakistan. This edition is focused on the importance of Balochistan for the world community and its strategic importance in the region. Team DSA is sure that you will like this edition too, dear reader. Jai Hind!

Pawan Agrawal

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contents

An ISO 9001:2008 Certified Magazine

Time For Quid Pro Quo Lt Gen Prakash Katoch (Retd)

Pakistan’s Pathway To Self-destruction Prof P L Dash

Troubled History And Uncertain Future Col Shailender Arya

Intent And Purpose Of “All Weather Friendship” Sana Hashmi

Crisis Of Governance Or Unity? Dr Sudhir Singh

CPEC And The State Of Balochistan Dr Shalini Chawla

Modi Gambit Needs Reinforcement Gp Capt AK Sachdev (Retd)

‘Rogue Elements’ Shape The Agenda Portia B Conrad

Holiday The Military Way Team DSA

Arming Indian Defence

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Time For

Quid Pro Quo Helping the Balochis against sustained Pakistani genocide amounts to taking the moral high ground. The advice by Ashley Tellis – “supporting insurgencies within Pakistan, engaging in economic warfare, pursuing focused retaliation to punish Rawalpindi or threatening major military action to induce external pressure on Pakistan then remain the only means left for neutralising Pakistani terrorism” – must be taken seriously.

1 1Pakistan army chief calls Kashmir ‘jugular vein of Pakistan’, Times of India, May 1, 2014, http:// timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/ pakistan/Pakistan-army-chief-callsKashmir-jugular-vein-of-Pakistan/ articleshow/34464638.cms

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hough repeated many a times by Pakistani leaders, it was in 2014 that Raheel Sharif, Pakistani army chief described Kashmir as the “jugular vein” of Pakistan1. Despite decades of proxy war, Pakistan’s ‘deep State’

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has been able to somewhat radicalise only five districts of Kashmir Valley (15 per cent of J&K population), this is what the Pakistani military makes out as the cause to hold its own country to ransom, enjoying all possible power and money it can drain. Sustained propaganda,

spearheaded by the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) continuously builds the image of the army and its nexus with terrorist organisations is lauded with the promise of wresting J&K and the ‘India threat’. Unstinted support of China in Pakistan’s antiIndia jihad, American intransigence to Pakistan’s proxy wars on India and Afghanistan has enabled the Pakistani army to successfully balance with both China and the US. With terrorism as part of hybrid warfare being the flavour of the 21st century, even Russia has gone soft on Pakistan fearing their nexus with both Taliban through the Haqqani Network, as also the Islamic State of Khorasan (ISK) established and led by Pakistan’s ISI could cross the Afghan border into Central Asia posing direct threat to Russian interests.

Balkanising Pakistan So, what is the jugular of Pakistan – FATA, Gilgit-Baltistan or Balochistan? Why was Pakistan so rattled in 2006 when Ralph Peters, the former US Army officer drew a new map of ‘Free Balochistan’ as part of his article Blood Borders: How a better Middle East would look? 2 The map showed ‘Free Balochistan’ carved out of Pakistan and some territory of Iran, with another map compensating Iran gaining territory elsewhere. Ralph Peters was not alone in suggesting ‘Free Balochistan’. Michael Hughes, geopolitical analyst, recommended much more in his article Balkanising Pakistan: A Collective National Security Strategy published on 6 July 2010 wherein he wrote, “The most popular approach to fragmentation is to break off and allow Afghanistan to absorb Pakistan’s NWFP and FATA, which would unite the Pashtun tribes. In addition, the

provinces of Balochistan and Sindh would become independent sovereign States, leaving Punjab as a standalone entity”3. Later, US Congressman Louie Gohmert went on record to state on 26 February 2012, “Perhaps it is time to recognise an independent Balochistan, where we’d have a friend who would not keep supplying the enemy of America, those people train and prepare for 9/11 to kill as many thousands of Americans as they could … We don’t want to leave Afghanistan in the hands of the Taliban and all of the American life and treasure be for nothing… We leave, but we empower the enemy of our enemy, the Northern Alliance and the Baloch people. Let them take care of their own area. Let them prevent the Taliban from taking over. Let them prevent Pakistan from becoming such a focused enemy as they have unabated. Let them worry.”4

British Geo-political Engineering Ancient Balochistan included present day Pakistani province of Balochistan, the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchestan, and the Afghan region of Balochistan. During the pre-Indus Valley civilisation, Balochistan was the western most limit of the Indus valley civilisation. The Baloch people, the largest ethnic group in the region, are of Kurdish descent that has absorbed Dravidian genes. Part of medieval history of Balochistan centres around Kandahar and it was in this area in 1398 that Pir Muhammad (grandson of Timur) fought the Afghans in the Sulaiman Mountains. The invasions by Genghis Khan caused the bulk of Baloch migrations given refuge in the greater Sindh region. In an effort to gain total control of the regions, the British named the area Balochistan

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Lt Gen Prakash Katoch PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, SC (Retd) The writer is a third generation Army officer who retired as the DG Info Systems in 2009 after 40 years of service. He had participated in the 1971 Indo-Pak War, commanded a Special Forces Battalion in Sri Lanka, a Brigade on Siachen Glacier during Kargil conflict, a Division in Ladakh and a Strike Corps in semi deserts. He is a former Colonel of the Parachute Regiment. A leading defence expert, he is a Visiting Fellow in foreign think tanks and contributes regularly to Indian and foreign publications.

2 Nazemrova, Mahdi, ‘Plans for Redrawing the Middle East: The Project for a New Middle East’, Global Research, November 18, 2006 (reproduced March 6, 2017), http:// www.globalresearch.ca/plans-forredrawing-the-middle-east-theproject-for-a-new-middle-east/3882 3 Hughes, Michael, ‘Balkanizing Pakistan: A Collective National Security Strategy’, Huffington Post, Jjuly 6, 2010, http://www. huffingtonpost.com/michaelhughes/balkanizing-pakistan-aco_b_635950.html 4 Katoch, Prakash, ‘Baluchistan – and the spy next door’ Indian Defence Review, March 28, 2016, http://www.indiandefencereview. com/spotlights/baluchistan-and-thespy-next-door/

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According to ‘Human Rights Watch’, human rights violations in Balochistan province of Pakistan have reached epidemic proportions

Prime Minister Narendra Modi needs to talk about Balochistan directly with the us President Trump and got the support of the Baloch Sardars who were then titled ‘Nawabs’. At the time of Partition of India, today’s Pakistani province of Balochistan was the Khanate of Kalat under Mir Ahmad Yar Khan having direct treaty relations with Whitehall, Nepal, Burma, Ceylon, etc. It was not under the control of the Viceroy of India, as many other princely states within British India. Kalat and the rest of Balochistan through Kalat’s Upper and Lower Houses in the Assembly had secured independence before the Partition of British India on 11 August 1947; before Pakistan and India gained independence on 14 and 15 August 1947 respectively. 5 Roychowdhury, Arjita, ‘Balochistan: Everything you need to know about the Pakistan province and its bumpy history’, The Indian Express, August 18, 2016, http://indianexpress. com/article/research/balochistaneverything-you-need-to-know-aboutthe-province-and-its-bumpy-history/ 6

Ibid.

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Jinnah’s Perfidy Balochistan existed as an independent country from 11 August 1947 when till 27 March 19485 Pakistan attacked the country on 27 March 1948 and Jinnah got the

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Khan of Kalat and his family killed. Thus, Pakistan annexed this free country and merged it into Pakistan on 28 March 1948. Ironically, Jinnah the barrister who had helped the Khan of Kalat to prepare his brief for independence and a Standstill Agreement in the interim, eventually paved the path for Kalat’s annexation by Pakistan on 27 March 19486. Thus, Balochistan was forcibly converted into a province of Pakistan, against the wishes of the Baloch and their Khan. On 16 May 1948, Prince Abdul Karim Khan (younger brother of the Khan) invited leading members of Kalat State National Party, Baloch League and Baloch National Workers Party to join him in the struggle for creating independent “Greater Balochistan”. Since then, brutal repression by the Pakistani army has failed to break the spirit of resistance. Beginning with 1948-49, it has been a horrific campaign to put down dissent and

silence the voice of freedom. Ironically, General Tikka Khan, who unleashed genocide in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) also earned the nickname ‘Butcher of Balochistan’ for the bloody campaign he led from 1973 to 19777.

The most popular approach to fragmentation is to break off and allow Afghanistan to absorb Pakistan’s NWFP Disappearances

7 Athale, Anil, ‘Is Balochistan another Bangladesh?’, rediff.com, August 29, 2006, http://www.rediff. com/news/2006/aug/29guest1.htm

Tarbella, Marc, ‘EU cannot ignore dire human rights situation in Balochistan’, The Parliament, June 23, 2015, https://www. theparliamentmagazine.eu/articles/ opinion/eu-cannot-ignore-direhuman-rights-situation-balochistan

Ahmed, Rashid (22 February 2014). “Balochistan: the untold story of Pakistan’s other war”, BBC News. Retrieved 22 June 2015.

10 Nazish, Kiran, ‘Balochistan’s Missing Persons’, The Diplomat, January 6, 2014. 11 Declan, Walsh (29 March 2011), ‘Pakistan’s Secret Dirty War, The Guardian, Retrieved June 24, 2015.

Ludovica, Iaccino (March, 11, 2015), ‘Balochistan: Hundreds of People Abducted and Murdered by Pakistan Army activists warn’, International Business Times, Retrieved June 24, 2015.

’IS visits militants in Balochistan: Jundallah spokesman’, Dawn, November 12, 2014, https://www. dawn.com/news/1143997

14 ’Baloch separatists attack traders, BBC News, July 27, 2009, Retrieved May 19, 2012.

Because of the Goldsmith Line of 1871, erstwhile Balochistan is split between Pakistani and Iranian occupation, with some parts in Afghanistan on account of the flawed Durand Line. According to ‘Human Rights Watch’, human rights violations in Balochistan province of Pakistan have reached epidemic proportions. Marc Tarabella, Vice Chairman of European Parliament’s delegation for relations with the countries of Southeast Asia and ASEAN, has called reports of the human rights situation “alarming” and stated that the “main victims” of the violence are Balochis who “are being systematically targeted by para -military groups, allegedly sponsored by the Pakistani authorities8. According to Pakistani journalist Ahmad Rashid “so many journalists have been killed in Balochistan” that “journalists are too scared” to cover the issue and by 2014 estimates of the number who disappeared in Balochistan are between hundreds and several thousand9. The ‘International Voice for Baloch Missing Persons’ states 18,000 Baloch were missing by 2014, of whom more than 2,000 were killed10. In 2011, Amnesty International had documented “more than 100 bodies”

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found dumped in Balochistan, many “mutilated corpses bearing the signs of torture” – “lawyers, students, taxi drivers, farm workers11. The German Chapter of the Baloch Republican Party reports between 1999 and 2015, “more than 20,000 Balochs have disappeared12.

Continuing Genocide The Pakistani army has been using terrorists organisations to ‘kill and dump’ Balochis. Under the pretext of Operation Zarb-e-Azb in the FATA where terrorist leaders were deliberately warned before aerial bombings and artillery barrages, these terrorists groups were allowed to shift to Balochistan. The Jundallah, another covert arm of the ISI is based in Balochistan and engaged in killing Shias, as also cross-border raids into Iran. Significantly, in November 2014, an ISIS delegation had visited Balochistan for meeting the Jundallah13. It was no coincidence that Mullah Akhtar Mansour, Afghan Taliban chief too was killed by the US Predator strikes inside Balochistan, while ostensibly proceeding to a rendezvous with Pakistan’s ISI. Balochistan is important to Pakistan because of its rich mineral resources and its borders with Iran and Afghanistan. Yet, it has been subjected to continuous genocide and kept economically backward. Baloch leaders seek greater control of the province’s rich natural resources and a moratorium on the construction of military ports but there is little response from the Pakistani administration14. There have been a series of insurgencies and the flame for independence remains alive despite the Pakistani army continuing to use aerial and artillery bombardment and tanks against the Baloch while

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the world stands mute. The strategic significance of Balochistan has gone up enormously with the ChinaPakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and Gwadar Post having been operationalised by the Chinese. China that abets Pakistani terror in lieu of a cap on its own genocide in Xinjiang, has gifted three WZ-10 attack helicopters to Pakistan for use against insurgents (read Balochis)15.

American Attitude Ashley J Tellis, senior associate at Carnegie Endowment wrote in his article titled ‘Pakistan’s terror problem and the demise of hope’ published on 11 October 2016 wrote, “Supporting insurgencies within Pakistan, engaging in economic warfare, pursuing focused retaliation to punish Rawalpindi or threatening major military action to induce external pressure on Pakistan then remain the only means left for neutralising Pakistani terrorism…lackening American compellence has, however, over time strengthened Pakistani recidivism…Unfortunately, it would

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most likely take a major terrorist attack in the US with links to Pakistan to force a change in current the US policy – and even that is not given. Until that moment comes however, the extant failure of the US policy towards Pakistan will continue to cost the lives of American and allied soldiers as well as undermine the reconstruction of Afghanistan. These already high costs further magnify the growing dangers emerging from Pakistan’s continued terrorism against India and its other neighbours, not to mention the larger risks to its own nascent democracy, especially at a time when its civilian leaders seem to be tired of their military’s adventurism. That the US, the world’s greatest power and Islamabad’s biggest benefactor, seems unable to do much about these perils darkens the prospects for hope in South Asia – not Narendra Modi’s token slap (read ‘surgical strikes’) against Pakistani terrorism”16.

China-Pak Collusion The State of J&K had officially acceded to India, and as such,

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15 Lin, Jeffrey and Singer PW, ‘Chinese Thunderbolts replace American Cobras: New Z-10 Attack Helicopters for Pakistan, popsi.com, April 1, 2015, http://www.popsci. com/chinese-thunderbolts-replaceamerican-cobras-new-z-10-attackhelicopters-pakistan

Tellis, J Ashley, ‘Pakistan’s terror problem and the demise of hope’, Live Mint, October 11, 2016, http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/ NCnQ13i1m0Irk02UcvAH4I/ Pakistans-terror-problem-and-thedemise-of-hope.html

There is every reason for India to go for supporting Baloch independence on quid-proquo basis

Joshi, Arun, ‘Pak’s Gilgit lease to China catches Indian army unawares’, Hindustan Times, February 23, 2012, http://www. hindustantimes.com/chandigarh/ pak-s-gilgit-lease-to-china-catchesindian-army-unawares/storyUDiEP9cBOs2aHCP3Ay5lLL.html

Pakistan has no claim on its territory. The 1948 UN Resolution on Kashmir too was not only binding, Pakistan rendered it infructuous by not withdrawing its security forces from PoK as mandated by the resolution. In addition, Pakistan illegally ceded the Shaksgam Valley to China which is Indian territory. Pakistan has most likely leased out Gilgit-Baltistan to China reportedly for 50 years17. Over and above is the sustained infiltration and terrorism that Pakistan is perpetrating in J&K. There is every reason for India to go for supporting Baloch independence on quid pro quo basis, in concert with its allies – go for Pakistan’s jugular vein. India has been shying away from this approach on ethical grounds even as the Indo-Pak joint statement at Sharm-el-Shaikh of 2009 hinted at Indian involvement in Balochistan, which was on account of some pressure on the then PM Manmohan Singh and NSA Shiv Shankar Menon since the draft sent by our mission in Islamabad had no such mention, as per informed sources that cannot be quoted. Afghanistan is equally affected as India, if not more, by Pakistan’s proxy war. India and Afghanistan need to

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envelop Pakistan sub-conventionally. India has traditionally shied away from going pro-active at the subconventional level other than during the liberation of Bangladesh when millions of refugees poured into India because of Tikka Khan’s genocide in East Pakistan. It is time to get over this self-created time warp in backdrop of the hybrid war waged on us that has no rules, no regulations. Besides, helping the Balochis against sustained Pakistani genocide amounts to taking the moral high ground. The advice by Ashley Tellis to “supporting insurgencies within Pakistan, engaging in economic warfare, pursuing focused retaliation to punish Rawalpindi, or threatening major military action to induce external pressure on Pakistan then remain the only means left for neutralising Pakistani terrorism” must be taken seriously18. Most importantly, US President Donald Trump has reiterated his pledge to eradicate “Islamic terrorism” from the face of the planet and alerted the American intelligence agencies to be ready for wars; in his inaugural speech he vowed to “unite the civilized world against radical Islamic terrorism” and pledged to “eradicate (it) completely from the face of the earth”. The CIA may still want to mollycoddle Pakistan as during the Obama tenure but President Trump should realise that the mother of Islamic terrorism in South Asia is Pakistan, duly abetted by China. Prime Minister Narendra Modi needs to talk Balochistan directly with President Trump. The fact that the China-PakistanNorth Korea axis poses enormous danger to the world needs little emphasis.

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Pakistanâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Pathway

To Self-destruction The past predictions of Pakistan being a failed State have not entirely dissipated. New internal problemsâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Terrorism, Islamic extremism, economic problems compounded by severe annual floods and inclement weather, narcotic and drugs menace have wrecked the country from within.

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akistan has become the cynosure of all eyes in recent years. The reason is terrorism and Pakistan is its proven promoter. It harbours terrorists in select locations and promotes their activities and claims that they are non-State actors. Pakistanâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s army trains them, the ISI protects them and the State sponsors them. The post-Uri reaction in India to Pakistan armyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s duplicitous activities brings to focus a core point of what policy Pakistan had been following all through these years. Four focal points highlight this policy. First, the PoK has been used in post Zia years by Pakistan to bleed India through thousand cuts â&#x20AC;&#x201C; a policy Pakistan administration had propounded to harm India. With a view to achieving this objective, the Pakistan army has stationed terrorist camps all along the PoK, leased a portion of it to China to deploy their engineers and build a transport corridor running from Kashgar to Gwadar and installed Chinese reconnaissance gadgets at intermittent distance to spy on border areas. This transport corridor is an alibi to garner Chinese support in the event of an Indian aggression.

Security Dilemma The Pakistan army has effectively created three layers of security in the PoK. The front line layer is the line of control running along south-north parallel, the second is the entire PoK territory considered as the frontier and the third is the real border of Pakistan with the PoK. They also have created a three layer defence system: the first being the terrorist camps supported and sustained by the Pakistan army along the

front with India, the second is the frontier all across the PoK and the rear is the immediate territories of Pakistan bordering the PoK. Beyond that lies the core of Pakistan, which their army presumes will never be attacked, never be vulnerable and never be touched by India. Some recent news reports that Pakistan has decided troop movements from the North Western Frontier Province (now Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) to its eastern flanks to face the challenge from India, this brings us to the second policy postulate the Pakistani army and the ISI have been following through the past decades. This is relative to their policy with regard to Afghanistan. Strong contingents of army forces are stationed along the AfghanPakistan border ever since the Soviet Army invaded Afghanistan on the Christmas eve of 1979. It is these forces, that have recruited and trained hardcore terrorists under the pretext

PRof P L DASH The writer is a former Professor and Director at Centre for Central Eurasian Studies University of Mumbai and ICCR Chair Professor in International Relations, University of World Economy and Diplomacy, Tashkent.

They reap every day the harvest of sorrow of their own sowing with terror attacks occurring across Pakistan of using them against the Soviet occupying forces in Afghanistan, a reason that has ceased to exist since 1989, when the Soviet forces withdrew from Afghanistan. But the trained terrorists returned to their homeland and used their expertise of terror to wreck havoc within Pakistan. The policy has backfired without Pakistan realising that what they had created was against their own country. They reap every day the harvest of sorrow of their own sowing with terror attacks occurring across

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Pakistan. Even schools, mosques and hotels are not spared. The Pakistan army followed a policy of pushing these trained terrorists on their soil to the PoK and from there to Jammu and Kashmir, engaged them to train further recruits from among Pakistani teens and make suicide bombers from among them. They also run sleeper cells for new recruits active in various Indian cities and across many parts of the world. In the western part of their country, they got a breathing space when the US forces landed in Afghanistan and toppled the Taliban. When General Pervez Musharraf was asked bluntly by the US in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 to clearly state whether Pakistan wished to join the US in fighting terror, Musharraf’s answer was an affirmative yes. By that “Yes” he saved his country not only from the American wrath but also from a crippling economic crisis then facing Pakistan.

Musharraf Move Musharraf smartly piloted his country and toed the American line despite his direct link to terror. Osama was very much in Pakistan but he flatly denied any knowledge of him. However, he became indispensible for the USA because he oversaw mining job in the Pakistan army and knew nitty-gritty of mines laid by the Pakistan army on Afghan territory to kill Soviet soldiers. When the American soldiers landed there, the situation reversed. With a view to minimising American casualties, Musharraf had to share the mining maps of Pakistani army with the US. But relative to India, he pursued a hardline to teach India a lesson to avenge the loss of East Pakistan in

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the 1971 war. He used all layers of the PoK against India. He also improvised a similar layered plan for the Durand line to vent his grievances against America. Running with the hare and hunting with the hound was his policy with the Americans. He intended to milk the American cow as much as possible and used all possible aids to train terrorists, who could be used against India or anywhere else in the world. From India to Afghanistan and Chechnya, his trend was apparent. The theatre of strategic activity was however the Western front. Musharraf’s three-layered plan in Pakistan’s western flank included stationing Pakistani forces on the front along the Durand line. The entire territory of troubled Waziristan remained the frontier after 9/11 to make sure that the core of Pakistan remains safe and the Musharraf regime stable. Thus, the core of Pakistan swung between the PoK in the east and Waziristan in the west, while the army hobnobbed with politicians and effectively ruled the country by pulling wool over public eyes.

Strange Perception Pakistan perceived that in the event of a war with India they would minimise the number of terrorists and forces from the PoK and shift them to the western flank bordering with Afghanistan. And in case of too much trouble with Afghanistan and with the Americans, the shifting of forces to the PoK was an assured safety. The terrorists have had a free run along the entire country. Guided and supported by the ISI and army, they turned Pakistan into a safe haven where they will never be

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Islam played a catalyst role in Pakistan and there is continuing connivance between the army, politicians and Mullahs

caught, never be punished and never be tried. A better and safer place was nowhere else available to them. It was here in Abbottabad, the Pakistani army harboured Osama bin Laden and told a lie to the world that he was not present in Pakistan. It is in the core territories of Pakistan that outlawed terror outfits mutated their name in order to resurface in their new avatar and the Pakistani State was in the denial mode about their existence on their territory despite being presented with hard evidence of their complicity in terror acts in

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various parts of the world by the US and Indian intelligence agencies. During these years another element aggravated the Pakistani scenario and that was religious forces becoming active and virulent. In the triangular polity of Pakistan, Islam played a catalyst role and there is continuing connivance between the army, politicians and Mullahs using Islam for fostering terrorist activities. The post-Musharraf political dispensation in Pakistan pursued the three-layered policies

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in their country’s western and eastern flanks because it purportedly saved the core of Pakistan from larger embarrassment of collapsing altogether. The so-called failed State survived.

New Dimensions The third direction appeared on the scene, when the Americans decided to disentangle from the Afghan imbroglio and prepared to withdraw allied forces from Afghan territory. Pakistan tired its best to prove its strategic worth again, but the Americans had grown chary by then. They were aware of the Pakistan’s duplicity and explored possibilities whether the allied NATO forces could be withdrawn via Central Asia and Russia. While the later two agreed without much hesitation, the Pakistan army improvised a little known, rather novel three-layered formula of defence of its own. The front in this policy, in the event of an exigency, would be Pakistani territory bordering the Wakkhan corridor of Afghanistan and frontier will be Pakistan’s centrally administered tribal areas of Pakhtunkhwa, particularly the northern swathe of lands lying between Gilgit and Munjawa, and the core will support the above two layers, thereby taking care of Pakistani interests vis-à-vis the US, lest the later ignores Pakistan by going to Central Asia and beyond to Russia. With a view to balancing its strategic postures, the fourth front the Pakistan army considered was with Iran. With strained US-Iran relations through the past years since 1979, when Ayatolla Khomeini seized power in Tehran, Pakistan again endeavoured to prove its strategic inevitability for the Americans by aligning with them

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against Iran. Once again, a three layered policy was implemented by the Pakistan army. The front in this policy run along the lengthy BalochistanIranian borders. The frontier was the restive Balochistan and the core of Pakistan will be safe to support the front and the frontier in the event of

The past predictions of Pakistan being a failed State have not entirely dissipated a conflict with Iran. This policy was underpinned in the strategic army realm, but never articulated publicly for fear of open criticism. However, resource rich Balochistan became restive with the policy of repression by the Pakistani army. The Bukhti killing was just tip of the iceberg of mounting Baloch discontent against the dominance of Punjab over them. With India’s surgical strikes along the Line of Control in the PoK on 29 September 2016, the moot question now is how long the core of Pakistan will last to sustain such a pernicious policy and effectively continue its balancing act?

Problems Galore The past predictions of Pakistan being a failed State have not entirely dissipated. New internal problems have wrecked the country from within. Terrorism, Islamic extremism, many religious groups shuffling their names for survival in the face of mounting attack on them, economic problems compounded by severe annual floods and inclement weather, narcotic and drugs menace, the US pressure to deal a body blow to terror groups, Baloch movement against growing Chinese investment in the country and last but not the

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least, is the thousands of Afghan refugees now fleeing the country not only to Afghanistan but to unknown destinations. The November 2016 issue of the Newsweek reported that it is not Europe or America where the migrant issues are high on agenda, it is indeed Pakistan where the issue is burning. Nearly 5,00,000 Afghans have abruptly left Pakistan and UN officials project the number to reach 7,30,000, many of them undocumented Afghans, who lived in Pakistan for generations. Their resettlement in any place is a huge problem, particularly for unstable Afghanistan. Recent reports also suggests that 39,000 Pakistanis have been deported from Saudi Arabia within the past four months due to their alleged complicity with the IS.

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Meanwhile, Pakistan has been chary about Indian help to Afghanistan whether it is highway constructions or parliament house building. The former embodies infrastructure and the later democracy. Both these are unpalatable to Pakistan that perceives India as a conniver with Afghanistan to outflank it from both Indian and Afghan sides. Pakistan apprehends that the core of the country will be troubled in the face of such outflanks and in case of armed conflict, it may signal an end of the core of Pakistan. Considerable protests within the country against Chinese penetration of the economy compounded by activities of religious zealots guided by the ISIS may serve as a lethal, incendiary combination to consume the country from within in the years to come.

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BALOCHISTAN

Troubled History And

Uncertain Future The Balochi population is small and dispersed over a vast area, the groups employ only 3,000-5,000 foot soldiers which is inadequate to fight a regular Army; the tribal and sub-tribal rivalries weaken them and there is a lack of broad tribal support for secession from Pakistan, particularly from the Pashtun tribes. Thus, the dreams of an independent Balochistan are not easy to convert into reality. The movement faces an uncertain future in the days to come.

alochistan, the largest province of Pakistan, has a troubled history, marked by violence and a perpetual quest for a separate identity. While the Taliban and the Afghanistan dominate the media headlines in the Af-Pak

April 2017 dsalert.org

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region, the longest running civil war in Pakistan in Balochistan hardly finds a mention. Balochistan has sparse population, no mountains to protect its boundaries and is mostly arid where Alexander while marching back to Babylon after his Indian campaign lost thousands

of soldiers in its deserts. However, in spite of these odds, the region has been witnessing a simmering insurgency since 1950s, with aims to correct the historical wrongs and regain its independent status, apart from demanding socio-economic development. It is also looking for thousands of missing Balochis.

The Importance Of Balochistan The geographical Balochistan is split between Pakistan’s Balochistan province and Iran’s SistanBaluchestan province with a small portion of the southern parts of Afghanistan’s Nimruz, Helmand, and Kandahar province also being part of Balochistan. In Pakistan, Balochistan is the largest province covering 44 per cent of the total area. However, the total population is only 13 million, which is barely 7 per cent of the total population of the country. It is located very close to the oil lanes of the Persian Gulf with 470 miles of the Arabian Sea coastline, commands almost the entire coast of Pakistan. Balochistan is rich in natural resources like oil, gas, copper and gold with its economy being dominated by its natural gas fields. Balochistan has estimated 19 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves and 6 trillion barrels of oil. Its location is pivotal as the province shares borders with Iran in the West, Afghanistan in the North, Sindh in the South East and Punjab, the Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) and the Khyber Pakthunkhwa in the North East. It has the deep-water Gwadar Port which is of immense importance to Pakistan and likely to emerge as a trade corridor for China and Central Asia, particularly for oil and gas. China has proposed to invest some

US $46 billion linking Gwadar with the city of Kashgar, a trading hub in the western Chinese region of Xinjiang. The much publicised Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline is also planned through Balochistan. Most of the inhabitants are Baloch who speak Baluchi, a northwestern Iranian language most closely related to Kurdish. Other communities include Pashtuns, Brahuis, Hazaras, Zikri, Bugti, Marri and Mengal. Incidentally, Balochistan’s largest minority group, the Brahui speaks a Dravidian language like other South Indian languages. The majority of the inhabitants are Sunni Muslims with a small number of Shia’s and Hindus.

Historical Perspective The Mughals ruled Balochistan directly from Multan but the actual control was delegated to a local vassal who organised the Khanate of Kalat in 1666. On behalf of the Mughals, Kalat ruled over the States of Las Bela, Kharan and Makran, which today make up most of the Pakistani Baluchistan. In 1783, the Khan of Kalat granted suzerainty to the port of Gwadar to a man who later became the Sultan of Oman. Pakistan had to buy Gwadar back from Oman in 1958. The Muslim rule of Mughals, and later by

Col Shailender Arya The writer is an alumnus of RIMC, Dehradun and NDA, Khadakvasla. He has served as GSO 2 of a mountain artillery brigade on the Line of Control, a company commander with Assam Rifles in Nagaland and as a Staff Officer with the United Nations. He is an MSc in Weapon Technology from Poona University and an MSc in Defence and Strategic Studies from Madras University. He has served as a GSO 1 (Operations) of a newly raised AR Sector HQ in a counterinsurgency environment in South Manipur and is now commanding his unit on the Line of Control in J&K.

The Balochistan Parliament had already rejected any suggestion of forfeiting of Balochistan independence Ahmed Shah Durrani of Afghanistan was followed by the British rule. The British attacked Kalat in 1839 as part of their related invasion of Afghanistan and installed a friendly

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The much publicised IranPakistan gas pipeline is also planned through Balochistan

ruler. In 1854, Kalat became an associated State of the British, and in 1877 the British established the Balochistan Agency to deal with the Baloch princely States and directly rule the northern half of Balochistan, including Quetta. The Balochistan was then divided into three parts: northern and western Balochistan were given to Persia and Afghanistan respectively, and Eastern Balochistan remained under British rule until 1947. In Eastern Balochistan, the present area of Balochistan consisted of four princely states viz Las Bela and Kharan (fiduciary states placed under Khan of Kalat rule by British), Makran and Kalat. After the Independence, only the region of Balochistan near the Afghan border along the Durand Line under direct control of British, called as ‘Chief Commissioner’s Province of Balochistan’ acceded and became part of Pakistan. The remaining four princely states – Makran, Kharan, Las Bela and Kalat remained under

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direct control of Khan of Kalat. Three month before formation of Pakistan, Mohammad Ali Jinnah negotiated the freedom of Balochistan from the British. On 11 August 1947, the Government of Pakistan acknowledged Balochistan as an independent sovereign State and later Pakistan signed standstill agreement with the Khan of Kalat. However by October 1947, Jinnah changed his mind and wanted Balochistan as part of Pakistan, but the Khan of Kalat was not ready to sign the Instrument of Accession. On 21 February 1948, the Parliament of Balochistan also decided not to accede to Pakistan. However, Pakistan forcibly merged Balochistan. On 26 March 1948, the Pakistani Army entered the coastal region of Balochistan in Pasni, Jiwani and Turbat and on 1 April 1948, the Army reached Kalat. Though Yar Khan, the then ruler of Kalat, later signed a treaty of accession, his brothers and followers continued to fight, triggering conflict. The Balochistan Parliament had already rejected any suggestion

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HRW said that since 2009, authorities had recovered the bodies of nearly 5,000 suspected victims of enforced disappearance and extrajudicial executions

of forfeiting of Balochistan independence on any pretext. Thus, even the signature of the Khan of Kalat, taken under duress, was not legal, because the Parliament had rejected the accession and the accession was never mandated by the British as well, who had given Balochistan independence before the formation of Pakistan. The sovereign Baloch State after the British withdrawal lasted only 227 days. During this time, Balochistan had a flag flying in its embassy in Karachi where its Ambassador to Pakistan lived.

Persisting Insurgencies So far, there have been five waves of insurgencies or conflict periods. The First Conflict (1947-1950) erupted to protest against the accession of

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Balochistan. The Second Conflict (1958–59) was precipitated by the One Unit Policy of Islamabad started by Muhammad Ali Bogra in 1954. The Third Conflict (1963 - 69) was against the Pakistani Federal Constitution which significantly decreased the provincial autonomy. The Fourth Conflict (1973-77) was triggered by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto’s imposition of martial law and the dismissal of Balochistan provincial government. The Balochis were also emboldened by the stand taken by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in Bangladesh. Tensions started building up after General Pervez Musharraf seized power in 1999 and the military started building new cantonments in Balochistan to tighten control over the region. The fifth wave of insurgency broke out in 2003 after rejection of Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti and Mir Balach Marri’s 15-point agenda to the Pakistan government. Their demands included greater control on the province’s resources and a moratorium on the construction of military bases. The Balochis suffered setbacks wherein Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti was killed in Aug 2006 and Mir Balach Marri was killed in 2007. This latest wave of insurgency is however broader, stronger and even deep-rooted.

Territorial Ambiance On 12 August 2009, Khan of Kalat, Mir Suleiman Dawood declared himself ruler of Balochistan and formally made announcement of a council for independent Balochistan. The council’s claimed domain included ‘Baloch of Iran’, apart from Pakistani Balochistan, but it did not include the Afghan Baloch regions. The council claimed to contain all important leaders

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BALOCHISTAN

including Nawabzada Brahamdagh Bugti. Apart from the council, the Balochistan Liberation Army is the most widely-known separatist group. The other key Balochi nationalist organisations are Lashkar-eBalochistan, Balochistan Liberation United Front and Baloch Republican Party, led by Brahamdagh Bugti, the grandson of Akbar Bugti. Since 2011, and till 2016, a total of 4,618 violent incidents took place in Balochistan resulting in killing of 2,407 persons and 5,229 being injured. The crackdown has been quite brutal and Pakistan has even used its air force against the people, but it has only fanned the fire.

The Causes Of Insurgency The Baloch are ethnically, culturally and socially quite different, and feel exploited at the hands of the dominant Punjabis. Apart from the ethnic differences, Balochistan has been the victim of economic inequality, underdevelopment and gross human rights violations. The provincial autonomy promised in the 1973 constitution to the Balochis is nonexistent. Since the mid-1970s, Balochistan’s share of Pakistan’s GDP has dropped from 4.9 to 3.7 per cent. Balochistan has the highest infant and maternal mortality rate, the highest poverty rate and the lowest literacy rate in Pakistan. The province lacks in infrastructure development and basic amenities with nearly 80 per cent of the people not having access to safe drinking water. The Balochis suffer economic exclusion and forced resettlement as the China-Pakistan-EconomicCorridor (CPEC) project denies jobs to locals. The Balochis have never had their required representation in

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politics and the military. At times, they were not even able to complete their tenure in the provincial council of Balochistan due to political exclusion tendency of the central government. Inadequate distribution of royalties earned from the natural resources is another major issue wherein the province receives less per unit in royalties than the Sindh and Punjab provinces, since Balochistan’s well head price is five times lower than in the Sindh and Punjab. The government returns little of the royalties, citing the need to recover operating costs. Balochistan currently receives `32.71 per unit on gas revenues, including a royalty of `13.90, excise duty of `5.09 and gas development surcharge of `13.72. Balochis deem the policies of the Pakistan government, including the economic package called ‘Aghaz-e-hoqooq-e-Balochistan,’ as being highly inefficient and having not accrued any benefits. The simmering insurgency has met with a brutal repression by the military. The dissenters simply go missing in Balochistan. The Human Rights Watch (HRW) has released several reports on abducted people in Balochistan and in 2014, three mass graves were discovered in Khuzdar. In 2015, the HRW said that since 2009, authorities had recovered the bodies of nearly 5,000 suspected victims of enforced disappearance and extra-judicial executions. The Frontier Corps, the anti-Shia group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and other groups are accused of a decade-long campaign of ‘pick up and dump’ in which Baloch nationalists, militants or even innocent bystanders are picked

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Gwadar Port situated on the Arabian Sea at Gwadar in Balochistan province of Pakistan

up and then killed. According to Amnesty International’s 2015-16 annual report on Pakistan, ‘enforced disappearances continued with impunity’ in Balochistan.

International Opinion Stuart Notholt, in his Atlas of Ethnic Conflict, describes the unrest in Balochistan as a ‘nationalist or selfdetermination conflict’. However, the international positions on Balochistan vary. While the US is concerned about the region in context of its ongoing operations in Afghanistan, the Europeans are concerned about the human rights situation, the Chinese about the security of the CPEC and the Iranians about the impact of a nationalist movement on the ethnic Balochis in Iran. The Americans developed an interest in Balochistan as it is the only available route for transportation of oil and gas from Central Asian and

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Caspian Sea region after alternate routes via Russia or China were not found feasible. The Indian and the US interests converge on preventing the Chinese presence in Gwadar, uncomfortably close to the oil lanes of the Straits of Hormuz and the US bases in the Indian Ocean. Since 2006, the Central Intelligence Agency has been operating MQ-1 Predator drones out of Shamsi airfield to target militants in FATA. The US had also targeted the Taliban leaders in Balochistan through a drone strike campaign. In late 2011, the Balochistan conflict became the focus of dialogue on a new US South Asia strategy by US Congressmen, who were frustrated over Pakistan’s continued support to the Afghan Taliban. Over a period of time, this issue was raised in the US Senate and the Congress. A group of US Congressmen have expressed support for independent Balochistan. In 2012, Texas Congressman Louie Gohmert said, “Let’s talk about creating a Balochistan in the southern part of Pakistan. They’ll stop the IEDs and all of the weaponry coming into Afghanistan and we got a shot to win over there.”

Iranian Complication The Iranian Balochistan is a restless Sunni region in a Shia majority country. It is again prone to unrest which can be created by groups like the radical Sunni Jundallah, on the bidding of Saudi Arabia. Pakistan, which absorbed the princely State of Kalat in 1955, had reconfirmed the old British India-Iran boundary with Iran with some very minor changes during a demarcation in 1958-1959. Therefore, the Iranian and Pakistani interests converge on keeping their respective Balochi populations under

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BALOCHISTAN

control. The Balochi nationalists are unlikely to find support in Tehran. The European interest in Balochistan centers on the safety of their remaining soldiers operating in nearby Afghanistan and the continued human rights violations. Marc Tarabella, Vice-chair of the EU Parliament’s delegation for relations with the countries of Southeast Asia and ASEAN, wrote that the EU cannot ignore the dire human rights situation in Balochistan. According to his 2015 article in The Parliament Magazine; “The main victims of this violence are the people of Balochistan who are being systematically targeted by paramilitary groups, allegedly sponsored by the Pakistani authorities. Extra-judicial killings and enforced disappearances are the most common practices”. In absence of concrete international support, the Balochis look towards India for support. Mir Suleiman Dawood has stated that the people in Balochistan remain deeply resentful of Pakistan’s policies in the region and he with Baloch nationalist organisations have openly called for India’s assistance in Balochistan’s separation from Pakistan. In another statement, Wahid Baloch, President of Baloch Society of North America, said, “We want India to take Balochistan’s issue to every international forum, the same way Pakistan has done to raise the socalled Kashmiri issue. We want India to openly support our just.”

Prospects Of A Baloch Nation The Baluch claims transcend national boundaries, which is likely to minimise their support in Afghanistan and Iran. All groups aim for the existence of a ‘Greater

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Balochistan’ – a single independent State ruled under tribal jirgas and comprising the historical Balochistan region, found within Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Thus, like the Kurds, the Balochis are divided in many countries and an immediate political unification is unlikely. The recent infighting between insurgent groups as of late 2014 has weakened the movement. While the groups are divided, the population is gradually unifying. The nascent but alienated middle-class in the towns of Balochistan is now rallying behind the nationalists and accepts the sardars spearheading the movement as genuine leaders.

Like the Kurds, the Balochis are divided in many countries and an immediate political unification is unlikely Within Pakistan, they face multiple challenges in their quest towards independence. A number of extremist groups such as Al Qaeda, Quetta Shura-e-Taliban and Tahreek Taliban are active in Balochistan. These groups have targeted the Hazara Shia Muslims who are immigrants from Afghanistan, thus complicating the situation. The Balochi population is small and dispersed over a vast area, the groups employ only 3,000-5,000 foot soldiers which is inadequate to fight a regular Army; the tribal and sub-tribal rivalries weaken them and there is a lack of broad tribal support for secession from Pakistan, particularly from the Pashtun tribes. Thus, the dreams of an independent Balochistan are not easy to convert into reality. The movement faces an uncertain future in the days to come.

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Indo-Pak line of fire

CHINA FACTOR

Intent And Purpose Of “All Weather Friendship”

In sum, taking a tougher stance on a few issues such as the CPEC and Kashmir, and opting for diplomatic overtures on others is the need of the hour. India also needs to reach out to its smaller South Asian neighbours with a clear message that it means well for the growth, prosperity and peace of the region and its countries.

hina, despite not being a part of the South Asian region, has been trying to establish its presence for a multitude of reasons including confining India into the South Asian strategic dynamics. Moreover, it has been showing intent to establish its

primacy in the South Asian region. Its ‘all-weather friendship’ with Pakistan, Nepal’s willingness to be a part of One Belt, One Road (OBOR), China’s increasing investments in Sri Lanka are evidences proving China’s efforts have been paid off. China is also not leaving any stone unturned to reach out to Bhutan. The

Sana Hashmi The writer is currently working as a Consultant in the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA). Prior to this, she was associated with Centre for Air Power Studies (CAPS) from 2011-2016. She has published several book chapters and articles in journals, magazines and web portals. She is the author of the book, China’s Approach towards Territorial Disputes: Lessons and Prospects (New Delhi: Knowledge World, 2016).

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CHINA FACTOR

OBOR initiative, though still evolving, is likely to further boost China’s presence in the South Asian region. Although, India is a formidable regional power, China’s increasing presence and influence in the region has begun to pose a grave challenge to India’s position in the region.

the Himalayas and deeper than the deepest sea in the world and sweeter than honey.” During his visit to Pakistan last year, Chinese Premier, Li Keqiang also remarked, “the two countries are all-weather strategic cooperative partners and always firmly support each other and share an unbreakable friendship.”

Chinese Debt Trap While China’s intentions to befriend smaller South Asian countries is fine, the difference between promises and reality of such agreements turned out to be huge, as is seen in the case of Sri Lanka, which is falling into the debt trap on the Hambantota project between China and Sri Lanka. Such situations worry the South Asian countries and international community at large. India has always been committed to ensuring that South Asia remains a committee of independent, autonomous, non-aligned and prosperous countries. Often the stepping-in of an outside power brings along the risk of meddling with the aforementioned common objectives of South Asian countries and South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) alike. India’s insistence on making the Indian Ocean region a zone of peace and making the SAARC an equitable and autonomous organisation conform to the deep-rooted idea that the region should not get swayed by objectives of an outside power.

Difference between promises and reality is seen in the case of Sri Lanka, which is falling into the debt trap Though India-Pakistan conflict is deeply rooted in religion, history, and ideology, China has always been a factor in India-Pakistan relationship. Since the 1962 IndiaChina boundary war, China has found a long-term friend in Pakistan. China’s economic, military support and nuclear assistance to Pakistan have been major irritants in IndiaChina relations. It has invested immensely – economically as well as diplomatically – mainly to keep India preoccupied with its Pakistan problem. As Stephen Cohen explains it in The Future of Pakistan, “China’s primary interest in its relationship with Pakistan is to pursue a classic balance of power strategy, using Pakistan to confront India with the possibility of a two-front war.”

China’s Stand On Kashmir Issue Pakistan’s equation with China has been worrisome for India. The Chinese leadership has, on several occasions, proclaimed that Pakistan is China’s all-weather ally. Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, in 2013 declared that, “our (PakistanChina) friendship is higher than

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Though China maintains that it follows the policy of non-interference vis-à-vis the India-Pakistan dispute over Kashmir, several incidents have suggested otherwise. In September 2016, Chinese Consul General in Lahore, Yu Boren was quoted as saying in Pakistan’s mainstream

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newspaper, the Dawn, “We are and will be siding with Pakistan on the Kashmir issue. There is no justification for atrocities on unarmed Kashmiris in (India)-held Kashmir, and the Kashmir dispute should be solved in accordance with aspirations of the Kashmiris.” The Chinese leadership distanced itself from the remarks, however, it is clear that such remarks cannot be made by a serving government official without the government’s backing. Kashmir problem is getting from bad to worse and China’s involvement has further made the dispute more complicated.

Sri Lanka is falling into the debt trap on the Hambantota Port project between China and Sri Lanka

China’s unwarranted meddling in India-Pakistan dispute or Pakistanoccupied Kashmir (PoK) would do more harm than good to China in the longer run for two reasons. First, China needs to follow what it preaches. If it does not want other countries to meddle in its territorial disputes in the South China Sea and East China Sea, it needs to respect

the sovereignty of other countries too and be out of their disputes. This double standard would damage China’s image as well as credibility in the longer run. Second, instability in Kashmir has the potential to hamper much-controversial the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). India has already expressed its discontent over the corridor, which passes through the disputed territory between India and Pakistan.

India’s Concerns Over CPEC China’s much-ambitious OBOR initiative has attracted a lot of attention. With an exception of India and Bhutan, all South Asian countries have embraced the OBOR. India has expressed its concerns with respect to the land component of the OBOR, mainly the 3,000 km long CPEC that passes through the PoK. While Hua Chunying, spokesperson of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs remarked that, “Beijing is committed to developing friendly and cooperative relations with others and that CPEC would not affect China’s position on Kashmir”, China’s steady presence and active efforts in the PoK are suggesting otherwise. China should not go ahead with the CPEC without addressing India’s concerns as India is the largest country in the region and is the largest stakeholder too. Also, since it runs through a disputed territory, it is China’s responsibility to keep its moves as transparent as possible.

China’s Stand On Terrorism China’s stand on terrorism emanating from Pakistan has been disappointing for India. While it is deeply concerned about terrorism and also in the radar of Islamic militants, China is still

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CHINA FACTOR

not vocal about State-sponsored terrorism in Pakistan. In fact, China has been blocking India’s bid to designate Pakistan-based terror outfit Jaish-e-Mohammad’s Chief Masood Azhar as a terrorist, over his role in the Pathankot attack, by the United Nations. This clearly shows China does not empathise with India on the menace of terrorism and sees it only from its own strategic perspective. State-sponsored terrorism from Pakistan has become a major concern for India and therefore, a key factor responsible for differences between India and Pakistan. Given that it is a transnational issue in nature, China needs to be more sensitive towards India’s concerns and need not to be selective in condemning Statesponsored terrorism. What it needs to do is not only be vocal about terrorism emanating from Pakistan but also push Pakistan to employ effective counter-terrorism measures so as to address concerns of India and other countries in the region. This will help bolstering stability in the South Asian region, which is considered as one of the most vulnerable regions.

Options For India Clearly, China’s strong engagement with Pakistan is driven by its desire to keep India trapped in South Asia and curb India’s geopolitical requirements regionally as well as globally. For that, China would like to see a stronger Pakistan in the near future and will prefer that India-Pakistan conflict is alive. However, the best-suited situation for China would be where India-Pakistan conflict is not turned into a full-blown conflict because any confrontation between India and

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Pakistan would involve China’s covertly supporting Pakistan. No formal defence arrangement between China and Pakistan suggests that China wants to keep its options open and do not want to side with any country in an event of war. What it needs to keep in mind is that using Pakistan to balance India is bound to hamper its relationship with India and contribute to the already rising strategic mistrust.

Clearly, China’s strong engagement with Pakistan is driven by its desire to keep India trapped in South Asia While the two-front war is unlikely to take place, India may still be well prepared to deal with challenges posed by the two countries. ChinaPakistan growing partnership still looms large on India taking up regional responsibilities and it is vital for India to weigh its options. • First, Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi’s Neighbourhood First Policy showed mature diplomacy on India’s part. It is extremely important for a country like India to focus on its immediate neighbourhood first. To counter China-Pakistan nexus, it needs to show its willingness to be a responsible power and that it is keen to be an economic as well as security guarantor to other countries of the region so that they do not fall in the lap of China.

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Soldiers at the Indo-China war of 1962

• Second, India needs to use the institutional framework such as the SAARC to proactively engage other countries of the region, which are showing early signs of tilting towards China for short-term gains. It needs to work towards improving regional connectivity with or without the support of Pakistan. In this context, early implementation of the Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal (BBIN) corridor would be fruitful.

Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi’s Neighbourhood First Policy showed mature diplomacy • Third, China resolved all its differences with the post-Soviet States in the 1990s. One of the major reasons for this generosity was that it wanted to demilitarise its borders on the western front

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so that it could focus on a bigger issue, ie, Taiwan. India may attempt to push harder for resolving its differences with China so that it acts as deterrence for China to stop arming Pakistan and India can focus on its issues with Pakistan with a comprehensive approach. • Fourth, consistently making China aware of India’s strategic concerns and aspirations is vital. Not that China is uninformed of these but regular dialogues and deliberations on issues of mutual interests and concerns are important to make China realise that India-Pakistan conflict is an issue of bilateral nature and China’s involvement will do no good to its interests. To sum it up, taking a tougher stance on a few issues such as the CPEC and Kashmir, and opting for diplomatic overtures on others is the need of the hour. Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent the views of Ministry of External Affairs and the Government of India.

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TURMOIL IN BALOCHISTAN

Crisis Of

Governance Or Unity? Balochistan has only four per cent population but it has 43 per cent territory of Pakistan. It shares long border with Iran and Afghanistan, and long interface with the sea. In contrast, Bangladesh has only 1.5 lac sq km territory and Balochistan possesses almost double that. Apart from this, its location is extremely important for geo-strategical calculations because it is a land bridge between South and Central Asia and South Asia and Iran. It is significantly rich for minerals including much important oil and gas.

n the aftermath of Second World War, many Asian and African countries came into being as independent nations. The world comprises of different nation-States which are comprised of sub-nationalities. Some states have homogeneous and some have heterogeneous populations. States having heterogeneous population consist of many ethnic groups. Pakistan, an important country, falls within this category. It has multiple ethnic groups. Right from the struggle for independence till the early formative phase, Mohajirs were dominant but after 1960, Punjabis have taken over. In due process of time; Balochis, Sindhis, Pathans and Saraikis remain outside the mainstream process. Former East Pakistan became Bangladesh in 1971 due to persistent negligence by

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the ruling oligarchy. Even today after 70 years of formation of Pakistan, ethnic groups are not satisfied with the treatment from the State and therefore raises their dissent.

Multiple Ethnic Minorities In many cases, these dissents have converted into violence. Baloch have been discriminated against by Punjabi dominated oligarchy since last many decades. Ethnic minorities were not considered minorities till 1993 at the Vienna Convention but after this convention, they became minorities legally and even within one religion they have minority status. Entire ethnic groups in Pakistan came within this category. In this paper, however I am going to examine Baloch status. This research will also debate the possibility of its separation from Pakistani State. What impact

Dr Sudhir Singh

made China propel the CPEC and the development of Gwadar port will have on the Baloch issue will also be analysed. States like Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka, Turkey, China and Spain etc are facing problems of ethno-nationalism. A certain ethnicity may ask for provincial autonomy, devolution of power and even secession. In majority of the cases, ethnic aspirations have been incorporated into the mainstreaming process. In 1950â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s which was maiden decade after the Indian independence, many top global pundits had predicted disintegration of India including former British Prime Minister, Winston Churchill, due to its diversity. Indian democratic system have however despite importing hundreds of provisions

from diverse constitutions, evolved structural mechanism to incorporate ethnic aspirations and today after 70 years of Indian independence, ethnic demands have declined to more fiscal and federal rights.

Post-Jinnah Vacuum

The writer has done his Ph.D from South Asian Division, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Presently, he is teaching in the department of political science at Dyal Singh College, University of Delhi, New Delhi. He has teaching and research experience of more than one decade. He has contributed enormously on diverse issues of Asia-Pacific in general and South Asia in particular. He has three books of his own and seven edited works. He contributed 19 chapters in different books and 21 articles in both national and international journals on the diverse issues related to Asia-Pacific. Besides that he is a regular panelist on television channels on diverse issues of foreign policy and governance. He is the founding General Secretary of Academics for Modi.

The same modules could not be replicated in the case of Pakistan due to multiple reasons. The sudden demise of Jinnah and departure of

Right from independence struggle till the early formative phase, Mohajirs were dominant other towering leaders within few years after independence had left the big vacuum and an oligarchy of anti-

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democratic elements became both de facto and de jure guardians of the new State. This coterie of people had lesser interests in nation building. In Pakistan’s case, there are many ethnic groups like Punjabi, Pathan, Balochis, Sindhi, and Mohajirs etc which are affecting the whole polity. Interestingly, both Jinnah and Liaquat Ali Khan were not from major ethnic groups of contemporary Pakistan. The issue of disintegration of East Pakistan gave a setback to the political system of Pakistan. The prevailing turbulence in Balochistan has posed a serious threat to the unity of Pakistan. Formation of Bangladesh shattered the concept of ‘Ummah’ and ‘political Islam’ and in contemporary context, again the basic moorings of the formation of ‘a land for the pure’ is under serious challenge. A majority of writers have diagnosed the ethnic problems and their reasons in Pakistan. South Asian ethnic insurgencies are mostly indigenous. These issues emerged from States having past colonial socio, cultural, economic and political heritage and mostly in reaction to unwise government policies.1 According to Michael E Brown, Dean of George Washington University the Asian ethnic conflicts are triggered by bad and corrupt leaders or bad neighbours. These bad leaders or bad neighbours might convert the politically unstable situation into warfare.2 Prof Feroz Ahmed is of the view that ethnic conflict in Pakistan emerged because the State leaders refused to accept that these regions were entirely different in culture and language from each other. When they were not accepted as different entity and were taken as one, this

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Map not to scale

created ethnic problems as culture or language is dear to people’s hearts and they don’t want to lose it or can’t see it fading away at any cost. This resulted in weakened national integrity as relations got bad among various ethnic groups.

Power Struggles Adeel Khan views ethnic conflicts in Pakistan as a struggle for power between the dominant and nondominant groups.3 He analysed ethnic conflicts in Pakistan as a political matter and for him politics is all about power.4 Even according to Machiavelli, politics and violence

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Michael Brown and Sumit Ganguly (eds), “Government Policy and Ethnic relations in Asia and Pacific”, (Cambridge, M.A: MIT Press,1970) ,p.8 1

Michael E .Brown,(ed), “The International Dimension of Internal Conflicts,” (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press 1996),p.571 2

Adeel Khan, Politics of Identity, Ethnic Nationalism and the State in Pakistan (London: Sage Publications, 2005), p.23. 3

Ibid.

are two sides of the same coin. This statement has proven true in many countries including Pakistan. Adeel Khan says that if all the ethnic groups have their share in power structure the ethnic conflicts can be minimised. Ethnic equations and dominance keep changing in Pakistan and in contemporary Pakistan it is Punjabi which is hegemonic and all smaller ethnic groups including Balochis are fighting their war of identity against the dominance of Punjabi but in case of Baloch, it has changed a lot and since assassination of Akbar Bugti in August 2006 by military dictator, General Pervez Mushrraf, Balochis are seeking secession from Pakistan as did Bangladesh.

All smaller ethnic groups including Balochis are fighting their war of identity Veena Kukreja has done very useful work on ethnic issues of Pakistan. She concluded that ethno nationalism arises due to problematic relations between the centre and the provinces.5 She agrees with Feroz Ahmed and says that the powerful Pakistan ruling elite has remained reluctant to accept heterogeneous society and named it as law and order problems rather than focusing and solving the issues of governability which was the real root cause of ethnic problems.6

London Declaration

5 Veena Kukreja, Contemporary Pakistan, Political Processes, Conflicts and Crises (London: Sage publications, 2003), p.45. 6

Ibid.

After the passage of 18th amendment by the previous Asif Ali Zardari led PPP government (2008-2013) in which for the first time, a genuine federal structure has been established, devolution of power has

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taken place among all four provinces. This amendment was consensual among all major political parties. When both Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif were in self exile, they inked a deal at London in 2006 that in case of return of democracy, they will consensually ensure devolution of power through the supremacy of the constitution. Interestingly, after the departure of the PPP government in 2013 election, Nawaz Sharif became Prime Minister of Pakistan and he was also co-signatory of â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;London Declarationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; along with Benazir Bhutto. But despite four years, after establishing genuine federalism today, Balochâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s demand of secession have enhanced manifold. Baloch groups have demanded formation of separate Balochistan and mark their presence at international platforms. Many experts have connected this surge of Baloch separatism with the all round development of Gwadar and construction of the CPEC by China to connect its landlocked and turbulent western province of Xinjiang to Persian Gulf. The construction of the CPEC has just begun therefore it is one of the contributory factors in the surge of Baloch separatism in recent years. Baloch issue has been older than the existence of Pakistan itself. One has to look into its holistic perspectives.

East Pakistan Analogy East Pakistan was in majority unlike Balochistan and it was hard to ignore the majority and their demands as compared to the minority. Minority can be suppressed by central government but to suppress the demand of majority of population is not easy. Not paying attention to the demands of Bengalis resulted in an upsurge of ethnic movement

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resulting in the appearance of Bangladesh. Moreover, East Pakistan was homogenous population unlike Balochistan. In Balochistan apart from Balochis, many ethnic groups are also residing. So, unlike East Pakistan Balochistan has a heterogeneous population. In the words of former president of Pakistan Pervez Musharraf, “the situation in Balochistan had no resemblance with that of East Pakistan and asserted that the province would remain an integral part of Pakistan”. He said that some tribal chiefs of Balochistan were trying to give a perception that situation in the province was similar to that of East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) which was far from reality. He added that the dynamics and situation of East Pakistan were very different from that of Balochistan as the former was home to 52 per cent population of Pakistan which unanimously stood to get separation and Balochistan formed only four per cent population of the total Pakistan and majority of them do not want separation except some of the Baloch Sardars whose supporters were less than 0.5 per cent.7 In contemporary circumstances, in accordance with Selig Harrison, Baloch nationalism has not yet acquired the cohesion and momentum that Bengali nationalism had in 1971.8 In Balochistan, the leaders who are driving secessionist movement are not living in Balochistan rather they express their programmes from outside that they are not ready to live with Pakistan. At the same time, all the tribal leaders do not agree for a separate homeland and just want their rights to be fulfilled. Situation has changed

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drastically since ‘Operation Enduring Freedom’ (2001) in Afghanistan. Balochistan has long porous border with Afghanistan therefore Baloch groups are active in Afghanistan to provide adequate logistics to their brethren back in Balochistan. But the prevailing atrocities and discrimination against the people of Balochistan has increased manifold in recent years. More than 5,000 people have disappeared over the last 10 years.

Pakistan has not learnt any lesson from its bifurcationin 1971 Modi Message Prime Minister, Narendra Modi mentioned the plight of Balochis in his 15 August 2016 annual address from Red Fort, which has given unprecedented edge to the demand of secession by the Baloch. Demonstrations were launched in Balochistan in favour of PM Modi’s statement. However, it has been a matter of historical weakness that Baloch groups have been divided but after the assassination of Akbar Bugti, they stand united. It is reflected in the statement of Naela Quadri Baloch, firebrand female leader of Baloch movement; “Balochistan was not a princely state. It was an independent country, formed in 1410. When Pakistan attacked, we already had a parliament, boundaries, rule of law, a constitution. Kashmir was never a country, it was a princely state under the Maharaja and Kashmir was always a part of India. The CPEC turned human rights violations into genocide. They only want Baloch soil not Baloch people. To them, our

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7 Understanding Baluchistan by Musharaff, http://apmlus.org understanding-Baluchistan. 8 Selig S.Harrison, “Ethnicity and Political Stalemate in Pakistan”, in the State Religion and Ethnic Politics, ed Ali Banuazizi and Myron Weiner (United States:Library of Congress, 1986), p277.

country is just a corridor to snatch our resources. But Pakistan’s existence depends on Balochistan. Pakistan has no minerals except Balochistan’s minerals. And, without Balochistan, it is landlocked. When Balochistan becomes free, Pakistan won’t survive for a day. Indira Gandhi had internal problems. Despite that, she stood for Bangladesh – why can’t Modi? If Modi takes a bold step, he will get support with secular democracies, India earned respect in the world, Pakistan only earned hate.9 (Baloch Landbridge) Balochistan has only four per cent population but it has 43 per cent territory of Pakistan. It shares long border with Iran and Afghanistan and long interface with the sea. In contrast, Bangladesh has only 1.5 lac sq km territory and Balochistan possesses almost double that. Apart from this, its location is extremely important for geo-strategical calculations because it is a land bridge between South and Central Asia and South Asia and Iran. It is significantly rich in minerals

including much important oil and gas. The quantum of discrimination could be assessed by the fact that gas produced in Balochistan was supplied to Punjab in the late 1960’s only but it was given to thew cities of Balochistan in late 1980s. Baloch secessionist groups have perceived construction of the CPEC as final blow to autonomy. They also anticipated mass settlements by Punjabis in the backdrop of this project therefore they have started their all round protest against this project. Successive Pakistani governments, democratic or military, have discriminated against the province. It could be safely stated that Pakistan has not learnt any lesson from its bifurcation in 1971. Pakistani State has to reconcile to the Baloch turmoil, but it seems that it has a firm belief in the military solution. This attitude has promoted separation of Balochistan, but again it depends on prevailing security architecture in South and South West Asia. By all counts it has not remained crisis of governance but it is leading towards separation.

Operation Zarb-e-Azb was a joint military offensive conducted by the Pakistan Armed Forces against various militant groups

9 Naela Quadri Baloch interview with Times of India, May 2, 2016, entitled ‘ Balochistan suffers Pak genocide… Kashmir India’s part, not us…Pak will collapse minus us. Balochs appeal to Modi.

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CPEC And The State Of Balochistan

The opposition from the locals is justified as even though the port of Gwadar has been developed and is functional, Gwadar remains deprived of even clean drinking water and basic necessities of life. Locals are being driven out in order to accommodate the Chinese workforce and this has added to the existing resentment in the region.

Map not to scale

One Belt, One Road is a development strategy and framework proposed by China

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he China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a US $46 billion project has generated ample debate in the strategic community. The corridor is viewed as a game changer by most of the Pakistanis as it does carry immense potential to upgrade and revive Pakistan’s infrastructure and also, cater to Islamabad’s looming energy crisis. However, there are pessimisms attached to the project as the corridor is expected to bring in different set of challenges for Islamabad. One of the most critical challenges highlighted in a report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is the repayment obligation that will come for Pakistan with this huge investment in the future. The IMF reports said “Pakistan will need to manage increasing the CPEC-related outflows.” The corridor involves building of highways, railway lines and, oil and gas pipelines and will connect Pakistan’s Gwadar port to China’s autonomous region of Xinjiang. The investment of US $46 billion is with the primary objective of up gradation of the whole of Silk Road which China terms as One Belt, One Road Initiative. This will significantly enhance the importance of Gwadar in the region and it will serve as a gateway for trade between China, the Middle East and Africa. The Gwadar port became operational in 2016 and China, has not only constructed the port but, also has the operational control of the port. While Gwadar will become the hub of economic activities, the locals – Baloch still struggle for their basic rights from the Pakistani government. The region has been facing constant

violent opposition from the locals. The implementation and success of the CPEC is likely to get affected by the regional conditions and stability.

Importance Of Gwadar Gwadar offers the geo-economic and geo-strategic pivot to China and Pakistan. It is strategically located on the south-western coast of Pakistan between three increasingly important regions of the world; South Asia, Central Asia and oil-rich Middle East. Gwadar, overlooking the Gulf of Oman and the entrance to the Persian Gulf region, is just 180 nautical miles from the Straits of Hormuz. China’s involvement in Gwadar, which started more than a decade back, links to China’s emerging energy requirements – China being the world’s second largest oil importer. Approximately, 70 per cent of the Chinese oil supply comes from the Middle East and Africa through sea. China has been expanding its energy procurement efforts and the strategy of series of ports along the oil shipment routes which would allow China to safeguard and monitor energy flows.

Dr Shalini Chawla The writer is a Senior Fellow at the Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi.

From the military point of view Gwadar is a decongestion point to the Pakistan Navy From the military point of view, Gwadar is a decongestion point to the Pakistan Navy and it will provide it a berthing point for its submarines and surface warships. Gwadar port area has been designated as the “sensitive defence zone” by the Government of Pakistan. Although, there has been no official Chinese announcement on the subject but

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various reports are indicative of Gwadar being a future berthing point for the PLA-Navy fleet of the Indian Ocean, facilitating China’s military presence in the region. In January 2017, China handed over two maritime patrol vessels to the Pakistan Navy for joint security along the sea route of the CPEC. The ships are equipped with the state of the art guns and will be used to protect the sea-lanes in the Arabian Sea. Reports suggest that China will be providing two more ships Dasht and Zhob to the Pakistan Navy. The strategic implications of the development of deep sea port were highlighted very well as the below mentioned points by former Indian Naval Chief, Admiral Sureesh Mehta in a lecture in Chennai in 2008: • Being only 180 nautical miles from the exit of Straits of Hormuz, Gwadar, being built in Balochistan coast, would enable Pakistan take control over the world energy jugular and interdiction of Indian tankers. • The pressure for countries to cooperate in the maritime military domain to ensure smooth flow of energy and commerce on the high sea will grow even further. • A highway is under construction joining Gwadar with Karachi and there are plans to connect the port with the Karakoram Highway, thus providing China a gateway to Arabian Sea.

State Of Balochistan Pakistan’s south western province of Balochistan has been the site of an intense struggle for selfdetermination against the federal government. The first encounter between the Baloch and Pakistani

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forces happened in as early as 1948. The merger of Kalat (in 1948) was unacceptable to Balochistan and there was tremendous expression of anti-Pakistan sentiments in the region. There have been series of rebellions which the Pakistani military has suppressed with brutal force. The developments in 1980s and 1990s prepared an extremely fertile ground in Balochistan for intense insurgency and accelerated terrorism. Balochistan is extremely rich in oil, gas and natural resources, but its still one of the poorest regions in Pakistan. Locals in Balochistan accuse Pakistani leadership of extracting their wealth and depriving them of the benefits. Multiple projects have been initiated in Balochistan but the locals remain deprived of the economic benefits, not to talk of the political and social rights they have been denied for so long. There has been marginal investment from the central government in Balochistan and the standard of life remains very low in the region. Although, Balochistan is the largest region of Pakistan with 44 per cent of the country’s area, it is least populated with just 5 per cent of population and the least developed area. Two-third of the people in Balochistan (about 71 per cent) live in multi-dimensional poverty. Around 1.8 million children do not attend schools because of lack of facilities. The Dawn reported that more than 5,000 government-run primary schools are single-rooms and single-teachers. The region still remains deprived of clean drinking water and natural gas.

Foreign Workforce Targeted Although, sporadic incidence of violence have been occurring in

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The CPEC would face significant security challenges in the future as the Baloch term the project as “colonisation” of the region

Gwadar Port features prominently in the Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) plan

Balochistan, almost consistently and a number of attacks by the insurgents took place in 2004. The insurgents began attacking the foreigners involved in the developmental projects and the economically important areas became the leading targets. Baloch insurgents targeted gas pipelines and the personnel working on the pipelines. One of the significant high profile acts was the killing of three Chinese engineers working on the Gwadar Port project in 2004. Mir Suleman Dawood Khan, the Khan of Kalat, as quoted in Pakistani defence, said, the Baloch people will go to any length to achieve their rights. In a wide-ranging

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interview with the Dawn, the Khan of Kalat said all land in Balochistan belonged to the tribes; â&#x20AC;&#x153;nothing belongs to the state.â&#x20AC;? His emphasis was on Balochistan getting adequate royalty for fisheries, gas and other minerals. Baloch are not very happy about the construction of Gwadar as they felt that they would not be the beneficiary of the port. Balochistan insurgency is a continuation of the intermittent guerrilla struggle which was present since the inception of Pakistan as early as in 1947. However, it does differ in techniques, geographical scale and also is now distinctly marked with

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the involvement of major terrorist organisations which have their operating bases in Balochistan. The insurgency is not very different in its objectives and causes when compared to the other insurgencies in Pakistan [in East Pakistan (1971) and Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (FATA)]. The underlying causes remain similar: denial of basic political and social rights, economic deprivation, feeling of alienation and most importantly, state response to the insurgency with brutal military force.

emphasised that under the current constitutional arrangements, the revenue generated from ports and airports will be collected by the federal government, and thus, Balochistan is not likely to reap the benefits of CPEC due to poor and discriminatory planning.

CPEC And Baloch Resistance

The Dawn (17 January 2017) reported, the Baloch nationalist parties have been expressing reservations and apprehensions that the locals might turn into minority with the huge influx of foreigners into Gwadar. There has been a fear of major demographic change in Gwadar among the locals. The Daily Times reported that Jamhoori Watan Party (JWP) central leader Shahzain Bugti, the grandson of late chieftain Nawab Akbar Bugti, said that Balochistan and Gwadar have not taken any benefit from the CPEC yet.

There have been ample apprehensions and resistance in the locals with the CPEC being implemented. Just ahead of launch of CPEC (2016) a major blast in another part of Balochistan killed over 50 people. Sanaullah Baloch, a former Senator from Balochistan, wrote (International The News) that although Balochistan has witnessed the most numbers of CPEC-related inaugurations and seminars since 2013, the province has only 0.5 per cent share in the corridor. He

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Till today, Balochistan does not receive a fair share from Sui gasfield

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Chinese Peopleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Liberation Army Navy Fuqing-class fleet oiler Hongzehu (AOR 881) arrives at Pearl Harbor

He said, “You visit Balochistan and you would observe the deep-rooted hatred against the centre.”

Chinese Colonisation The Dawn reported that in January 2017, Balochistan government formed a high-level committee to prepare recommendations in order to protect the social, political and economic rights of the people of Gwadar in the aftermath of the implementation of the CPEC project. The opposition from the locals is justified as even though the port of Gwadar has been developed and is functional, Gwadar remains deprived of even clean drinking water and basic necessities of life. Locals are being driven out in order to accommodate the Chinese workforce and this has added to the existing resentment in the region. The local fishermen are not allowed to fish near the port which is a major problem as large number of population in Gwadar is dependent on fishing for their livelihood. Caravan serai in desert Dasht-e Lut, Kerman Province, Iran

The Baloch separatist groups have vowed to resist the project and their

April 2017

activities are bound to hinder the implementation of the CPEC. However, the Pakistani leadership has denied the objections of the Baloch separatist groups, claiming that it is taking care of the Baloch interests and the CPEC would benefit the region. The CPEC would face significant security challenges in the future as the Baloch term the project as “colonisation” of the region. The Pakistani leadership has perpetually ignored the needs and demands of Balochistan. The locals fail to receive the benefits extracted from the natural resources in the region. An important example in this regard is the Sui gasfield, which was discovered in 1952 in Balochistan, but the first provinces to receive the gas supply from Sui were Punjab and Sindh. Till today, Balochistan does not receive a fair share from Sui gasfield and only about 14 towns receive supply from Sui gasfield. The Pakistani government is promising major economic progress of the country with CPEC, but whether locals in Balochistan would actually reap the benefits remains to be seen.

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Modi Gambit Needs Reinforcement

Modiâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s bold first step in this direction raised hopes (in Balochistan and India) that an innovative and long overdue campaign was being launched against our intractable and problematic neighbour and enemy. After that first roar from the ramparts of the Red Fort, the campaign appears to have petered out to a whimper. One hopes that it will be revived.

Balochistan

Map not to scale

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n a bold tactical move, Prime Minister Modi recently opened a second front in the unending India-Pakistan confrontation that, since 1947 (when the two countries were partitioned off), has only changed gears but never slackened off enough to encourage any expectations of lasting (or even transitory) peace. The premeditated mention of Balochistan in his prepared Independence Day speech last year was discernable as a move of great significance by the analyst and the academic in India but in Pakistan, the reference to Balochistan brought sharp reactions. Expectedly, the Pakistani establishment went overboard in relating the statement to its oftrepeated contention that India had been encouraging, aiding and abetting militancy and terrorism in Balochistan. Inevitably, the oblique invocation of Balochistan and the words “I want to heartily thank the people of Balochistan, people of Gilgit, people of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir for having an expression of thankfulness” were accompanied by a more direct allusion to Pakistan’s utterances on Kashmir, especially the ones lionising terrorists in India. Whilst Modi’s endeavour was to link Balochistan and Kashmir, Pakistan was prompt in emphasising its contention that the two cannot be equated. Modi’s move served to flag Balochistan marginally in the global public perception but a lot more vigorously in the Indian populace which had been largely unaware of the ongoings in Balochistan.

Background The current state of Balochistan owes its origin to the historicity of the Partition of India, prior to which (on

12 August 1947) the Khan of Kalat (the old princely State that existed in the centre of modern day Balochistan) had proclaimed independence of the Kalat State following from a series of meetings where Jinnah was present and which recognised the independence of Kalat. However, in March 1948, the Khan was forced to accede to Pakistan despite the popular aspiration (expressed by Kalat Parliament) being to the contrary. Had Pakistan made efforts to bring about a meaningful merger of the State, things may have been different but the military-dominant establishment has employed a heavy-handed approach to the issue. Consequently, progressively Baloch populace see their fundamental rights broached by a politically and economically dominant Pakistan government, widespread corruption, and exploitation of the area’s rich natural resources by a politicalbureaucratic nexus, to the ultimate detriment of the Baloch people. Out of the 20 poorest districts of Pakistan, 16 lie in Balochistan, more than half of the State’s population lives below the poverty line and

Gp Capt AK Sachdev (Retd) The author is an erstwhile Senior Research Fellow from IDSA.

The Khan of Kalat proclaimed independence of the Kalat State following a series of meetings where Jinnah was present around two thirds of the children below the age of five have never been to school. The beggarly treatment to the State and the munificent reserves of copper, marble, coal and natural gas in the area are mutually inconsistent but a reality that forces public sentiment to rebel against the Pakistan establishment.

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What is perhaps needed is a humane approach to the problem by the government by bringing back displaced and isolated citizens and trying to merge them with mainstream economy so that alienation and poverty does not perpetuate militarism. However, that approach does not look likely in the near future with the government stance fairly hardened due to the military thought process involved. As a result, the boundary line between local state-spawned militarism and external extremism is getting diffused and all portents indicate that Balochistan is destined for a worse state of affairs.

2016. When his body was brought to Civil Hospital at Quetta, hundreds of lawyers who had gathered there to pay their last respect for the deceased were targeted by a suicide bomber and the attack killed 63 lawyers and another attack killed 30 people; more than a hundred people were injured. While the Pakistani official machinery went into overdrive trying to pin the blame on India and Research & Analysis Wing (RAW), both the ISIS and Pakistani Taliban claimed responsibility for the terror attack after which the Pakistan establishment, always diffident towards these two terror organisations, fell silent.

ISIS, Taliban In Balochistan

Pakistani journalist Ahmed Rashid reportedly put down for the BBC that, “Afghanistan is beset with civil war – five provincial capitals are presently under siege – it does not control the border regions

Just a week before Modi’s Independence Day iteration, Bilal Anwer Kasi, an advocate and the president of the Balochistan Bar Association, was killed on 8 August

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Balochistan is destined for a worse state of affairs

between Pakistan and Afghanistan where the ISIS is active ….” The ISIS penetration into Balochistan is a matter of concern not only for Balochistan but also for Pakistan which has been emphasising that the ISIS would not be allowed into its territorial limits. However, Karachi and Punjab governments have admitted having had to carry out raids against the ISIS militants. The Taliban problem goes back many years to 1979, when Afghan mujahideen were trained in Pakistani areas bordering Afghanistan, including Balochistan. With the US incursion into Afghanistan, many of these (including the Taliban) retreated to Balochistan under Pakistan’s benevolent gaze. According to Sajid Hussain, a former assistant editor of The News International, “At the time of General Zia-ul-Haq (1977-88), when religious extremism came to Pakistan, Balochistan was not badly affected by Zia’s policies. What did have an impact was the arrival of Afghan refugees in Quetta or elsewhere in the province.

Geography does not permit India to do in Balochistan what Pakistan is doing in Kashmir

From the Pashtun belt of Balochistan up to Sibi, religious elements or to be more specific, mujahideen elements brought with them the sentiments of jihad.” Analysts now see a trend of growing Talibanisation of Balochistan in size and spread with a large number of new local entrants joining the groups. Balochistan’s northern area, which is predominantly populated by local Pashtuns, is where lie the seeds of religious extremism which is now penetrating into other parts of Balochistan.

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CPEC The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is essentially a Chinese plan to find convenient and short routes for Chinese supply lines through Pakistan and into the Indian Ocean; Gwadar in Balochistan is the port that offers CPEC its entry into the Indian Ocean. India’s concerns over this development are not just because of the ‘Indian’ title of the Ocean but because of the proximity to Indian territorial expanse that it provides to Chinese presence there. Pakistan Navy has disclosed that China would deploy its naval ships along with Pakistan Navy to safeguard the strategic Gwadar port and trade routes under the CPEC. While Pakistani government has been trying to project to the people of Balochistan the potential opportunities the CPEC holds forth for Pakistan in general and Balochistan in particular in terms of increased employment, productive economic activity, business opportunities and industrial growth, Balochistan (and also neighbouring Sindh) have been volubly opposing plans of Chinese Navy installations in Baloch territory as intrusions into their overall interests and popular will. While sane voices within and without Pakistan have warned that the sense of deprivation and alienation felt by Baloch people must be dealt with first before they can be expected to participate fruitfully in the CPEC, Pakistani establishment is unlikely to have the patience or the mental disposition to do so. Bulldozing its way to execute the CPEC infrastructure through Balochistan is the more likely course of action that it will follow.

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Balochistan-Kashmir Tit For Tat Balochistan is the confluence of several strands of India’s strategic reflections in the emerging scenario. Balochistan’s strained relations with Afghanistan and India’s recent overtures to Afghanistan are a natural connection while the CPEC as a whole, and Balochistan’s Gwadar port in particular, is another linkage that demands attention. Kashmir, geographically distant from Balochistan, is the strand that was defined by PM Modi through his reference (which, incidentally, has not been reiterated in the same manner that Pakistan invokes Kashmir ad nauseum). This is despite the fact that Pakistan, with its discriminate policy on terrorism which distinguishes the good from the bad terrorist organisations, is itself sponsoring terrorism in Balochistan with ISIS and the Taliban outfits adding to the trauma for the people there. It is therefore significant that PM Modi harked back to Balochistan and, in a way, modified the rules of the India-Pakistan game. With both, India and Pakistan, having achieved nuclear weapon status, with its inevitable link to the possibility of conventional war always holding the threat of escalation to nuclear exchange(s), Pakistani exploitation of militancy sponsored by its own military needs to be countered; opening the Balochistan front was a brilliant way out. While geography does not permit India to do in Balochistan what Pakistan is doing in Kashmir, the support we can provide to Baloch nationalist groups in terms of promoting their political visibility and audibility, moral

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support in international forums, possibly financial backing (directly or indirectly), and supplying any useful intelligence could go a long way in meeting the aspirations of the Baloch people. The ultimate hope would be that the noise made at international forums may bring the Pakistan establishment under pressure to go easy on Kashmir while the need to quell the Baloch insurgency would keep the Pakistan Army busy and thus, away from misadventures of the Kargil variety. PM Modi’s bold first step in this direction raised hopes (in Balochistan and India) that an innovative and long overdue campaign was being launched against our intractable and problematic neighbour and enemy. After that first roar from the ramparts of the Red Fort, the campaign appears to have petered out to a whimper. One hopes that it will be revived in the interest of keeping alive Indian hopes of extracting Pakistan-occupied -Kashmir from Pakistani clutches some day in the future.

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Balochistan’s Gwadar port is another linkage that demands attention

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Impact of Indo-US relationship

‘Rogue Elements’

Shape The Agenda A booming Indo-US relationship could also lead to increased collaboration between the “all-weather friends” – China and Pakistan. This will further increase Pakistan’s dependence on China and subsequently, these developments may create a path towards the destabilisation of strategic balance in the region.

akistan has always been wary of ties between India and the United States. While the Trump-administration in the US is taking shape, India and Pakistan have General Elections

Portia B Conrad The writer is a Consultant with the Ministry of External Affairs, New Delhi. She was formerly associated with the National Security Council Secretariat, Government of India.

due in 2018 and 2019, respectively. Against this backdrop, the impact of the Indo-US ties on Pakistan remains uncertain in the near future. However, the Trump administration, which does not seem to have a uniform view on Pakistan, is likely to

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Indo-Pak line of fire

Impact of Indo-US relationship

continue the policies from previous the US governments. Based on shared democratic values and increasing convergence of interests, bilateral relations between India and the US have transformed into ‘Global Strategic Partnership’. The frequency of high-level visits and exchanges between the two countries has also gone up significantly. A whole new range of issues mark the new bilateral relationship, for example, cooperation on state-of-the-art air weaponry technology for jet engines, unmanned aerial vehicles, joint war games and naval exercises in the Indian Ocean. However, this pattern has not gone down too well with Pakistan. The rogue elements in Pakistan (who in a way are strategic assets of the country) have labelled the Indo-US ties as a ‘conspiracy against Pakistan’. The security environment of South Asia has always been characterised by the traditional rivalry between India and Pakistan. Security cooperation between New Delhi and Washington has strategic implications for Islamabad, as it impacts Pakistan’s deterrence capabilities against India and tilts the balance of power in favour of India. Recent milestones such as Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), renewal of Defence Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI) and designation of India as a ‘Major Defence Partner’ have additionally enhanced the defence cooperation between India and the US. Thus, Pakistan’s inherent need to seek parity with India may compel it to modernise its armed forces at a similar pace leading to an arms race in the region, already evident by the sale of eight submarines

April 2017 dsalert.org

by China to Pakistan. Pakistan is already cautious about Indian pre-dominance in conventional warfare capability, which will be further enhanced through this defence cooperation between India and the United States. A booming Indo-US relationship could also lead to increased collaboration between the “all-weather friends” – China and Pakistan. This will further increase Pakistan’s dependence on China. Subsequently, destabilising these developments may create a path towards the strategic balance in the region.

The conversation between President Trump and PM Modi visibly affected Pakistan President Trump and Prime Minister Modi – First Conversation The telephonic conversation began with President Donald Trump saying, “United States considers India a true friend and partner in addressing challenges around the world”. The two discussed opportunities to strengthen the partnership between the US and India in broad areas such as the economy and defence cooperation. While the India-US defence partnership has strengthened, there remain several potential pitfalls – on the economic front over the US concerns on market access and Indian complaints over H-1B visa wrangles. President Trump looks forward to hosting Prime Minister Modi in the US later this year, implying that PM Modi will make a trip to the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in September-October 2017,

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Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif (left) shakes hands with China’s President Xi Jinping

if not earlier. PM Modi had skipped the UNGA last year as he had already travelled to Washington twice in the first half of 2016. He has already visited the US four times since his election in May 2014. Meanwhile, it is likely that in a multilateral setting, President Trump and PM Modi may meet on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Germany in July 2017. Pakistan could also attempt the same, with both the US and India (separately). Following President Trump’s inaugural speech, Pakistan expressed concern over the targeting of the Islamic world. Subsequently, the conversation between President Trump and PM Modi visibly affected Pakistan, when it issued a press release that went beyond the relaxing phrases used in diplomacy.

Trump’s Core Beliefs – Takeaway for India American economy has failed to provide jobs for its citizens. Hence, the slogan “Buy American, Hire American”. His attempt to remind the

April 2017

audience that he campaigned on the promise to bring jobs back to America would put a significant dent on India’s foreign remittances from the US. India also, through American jobs, relocates a good portion of its population. On 20 February 2017, the “Buy American” policy measures in the renewable energy sector faced their first major international legal challenge. India took the US to adjudication at the World Trade Organization (WTO) to promote renewable energy given that human-made climate changes are inconsistent with global trade rules. President Trump has highlighted his opposition to multilateral trade groupings like the WTO and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), especially the latter and holds them as a major reason for large-scale loss of jobs in the US. American security and economy is threatened by the massive flow of immigrants. Trump had campaigned on anti-immigration sentiment and in the process, he tried to make an exception for high-skilled immigration, which includes the

Defence AND security alert

Indo-Pak line of fire

Impact of Indo-US relationship

H-1B visa programme that benefits Indian IT professionals. Meanwhile, Indian companies and Silicon Valley will continue to lobby in favour of the programme at the current level. President Trump wants to reform the immigration system to favour foreigners who have special skills that would contribute to the US economy, breaking from a decadeslong practice of giving preference to family members of the US citizens and permanent residents. However, switching to a “meritbased” system like Canada’s and Australia’s, which Trump endorsed in his speech to Congress recently, is fraught with political and administrative challenges. The principal threat to the world is from radical Islam; therefore, the Western world should pool sources together to exterminate the threat. Trump used his inaugural address to convey that his principle foreign policy goal lies in defeating radical Islamic terror groups, particularly the Islamic State. Trump’s predecessors, George W Bush – who invaded Afghanistan and ousted the Taliban regime and Barack Obama – who ordered the raid that killed Osama bin Laden, also fought extremism. Trump, however, has a different approach and defended the orders given in the initial days of his administration against the global outcry, saying it is not about religion but about “terror and keeping our country safe”. India could use Trump’s view in scoring a point against Pakistan on supporting home-grown terrorism. China represents an economic and security threat to the US and its allies. Hence, he emphasises

April 2017 dsalert.org

on a tough approach. Despite backtracking from his threat to ‘One-China’ policy, Trump via his unorthodox approach, would attempt to use Taiwan as leverage in broader negotiations with China. Moreover, he highlighted various contentious issues like the currency manipulation, unfavourable trade practices, designation as a market economy, activities in the South China Sea and the North Korean nuclear proliferation, which would be taken up with China. For India, Trump’s approach towards China should work in its favour. China will remain the more intractable interlocutor for both the US and India as it will be an abiding issue that straddles the geo-economic and geopolitical compulsions for the world’s oldest and the largest democracies. Separately, the most important point for both countries is the symbiotic relationship between China the exporter and the US, the importer; between Chinese workers who produce cheap goods and the US consumers who buy them. The reverse export for China will be a double whammy for the US.

Implications for Pakistan The client-patron relationship between Pakistan and the US has diminished to a large extent and could deteriorate further. Pakistan’s continued state-sponsored terrorism is another factor for consolidation of the Indo-US relations. Hence, Pakistan’s original expectation that the US will pressurise India on Kashmir could fall short in the long-run. Meanwhile, with support from the US, India’s role in Afghanistan will continue to grow, despite Pakistan’s discomfort. An example of Pakistan responding

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Trump’s policies might put a significant dent on India’s foreign remittances from the US

under pressure could be the house arrest of Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) chief Hafiz Saeed and his four aides in Lahore on 30 January 2017 for their terror-linked activities. Saeed has also been added to Pakistan’s Exit Control List and cannot travel outside the country. However, this could mean two things in reality: one – the Pakistani establishment has possibly moved proactively to nullify any counter-terror operation targeting Hafiz Saeed. Through this arrest, Pakistan is posturing to the international community that it is a committed partner in the fight against terrorism; and two – given the reported pressure mounted by President Trump on its inaction on prominent militant groups and their leaders, Pakistan may have carried out this cosmetic drill to prevent further isolation by the international community. Relations between Pakistan and the US depend on what approach President Trump brings to the ‘war on terror’. Given Pakistan’s poor reputation, it is pertinent to point out that Trump has chosen his National Security Council (NSC) comprising people who have the most experience in the Af-Pak region. Hence, the US has an imperative towards Pakistan.

The relation Pakistan has been enjoying with the US as a strategic patron has diminished to a large extent The US-Pakistan relationship has served some important interests of the two countries for over six decades and may continue to do so at least for the foreseeable future. However, the

April 2017

increasing number of multifaceted exercises between the armed forces of India and the US would improve India’s operational capabilities, mounting further pressure on Pakistan. Pakistan, therefore, would continue to turn to China for help to remain at par with India. This could make South Asia a geopolitically tensed zone, which could have strategic regional implications. For India, the undesired gainer in the process will be China, which gets a clear gateway to interfere in the geopolitics of the sub-continent. Pakistan believes the Indo-US ties would strengthen India’s hegemonic ambitions in South Asia and nullify Pakistan’s effort in preventing the same. In order to curtail Indian advancements and maintenance of credible minimum deterrence, Pakistan may have to increase its defence budget, which is apparently burdensome due to heavy spending on its war against militancy. The Indo-US strategic partnership is an opportunity, which India could leverage for influencing Pakistan’s behaviour in its favour. From the heydays of Cold War, Pakistan’s importance for the mandarins in Washington has reduced drastically to the status of a tactical partner. While India, on the other hand, has not only emerged as a strategic partner but has become a linchpin of the US strategy towards Asia. Disclaimer: The views expressed or discussed in this paper are for the purpose of generating an informed discussion and do not necessarily reflect the official policy of the Ministry of External Affairs on the subject.

Defence AND security alert

military tourism

veer yatra by mesco

Holiday the military way

The initiative by the Maharashtra Ex-servicemen Corporation (MESCO) is a unique concept that will encourage civilians to explore various facets of the defence mechanism of India and its evolution. 44

April 2017 dsalert.org

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he pride of uniform, calculated body language, the sense of guarding the Indian borders, fighter planes, submarines…all of this and more have always intrigued the Indian citizens, especially the ones who do not belong to the defence background. But you can experience the military life with Veer Yatra, a military tourism initiative by MESCO. Celebrate the glory and might of Indian defence forces and salute them for their bravery. Veer Yatra offers the Indian citizens an opportunity to experience the brave and thrilling world of our heroic security forces up and close. There are numerous specially curated tours to enable the travellers to experience the excitement, the challenges and the triumphs of the men in uniform. The visits to the awe-inspiring military installations, naval bases, breathtaking monuments, armament displays and scintillating parades, challenging war games, mock rescue operations, gruelling adventure sports and stories of famous wars can give goosebumps to anyone. It is also a humble way to know about the legacies and sacrifices of the brave defence personnel who have devoted their lives to the security and peace of India. This vacation head towards a Siddhi king at Fort Janjira, defend Raigad Fort against the Mughals or embark on a voyage of the military history of famous forts in the Konkan. Meet the war heroes and indulge in a heart-toheart talk with their fascinating stories and bone-chilling experiences. Add some more thrill with military games, scrumptious Konkani food, campfires at colonial era guesthouses, river rafting, wildlife sightings and many

more exciting adventures. MESCO also plans to venture into border tourism, especially in the areas like Kargil, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh and North East. On the objective behind “Veer Yatra”, Col (Retd.) Suhas Jatkar, Managing Director of MESCO, said in a press conference that they have a large force of ex-servicemen who have lived in all border areas for a considerable period. “They’re in the best position to explain conditions prevailing in those areas and difficulties faced during their national duties. Our unique selling point is we also provide tourism with security and foreigners prefer it. Since, it’s a government enterprise with the chief minister of Maharashtra at the helm of affairs, we provide best of service at lowest cost.”

It is a humble way to know about the legacies of the defence personnel War memorials, border posts, naval bases, defence academies, Army workshops, army hospitals, army colleges, warfare art centres, war museums, air force stations and military hostels fall under the purview of Indian Military Tourism. The initiative also aims to provide meaningful and gainful employment to ex-servicemen and army widows. It will also strengthen the emotional bonds between the military and the civilians, besides inculcating a spirit of patriotism among the youngsters. With India’s large military, long borders spread in “strategic” and often picturesque sites in the country, it’s time to explore them with Military Tourism.

April 2017

Defence AND security alert

CEPR event

india reboot

arming

indian defence

he Centre for Economic Policy Research, in association with Defence and Security Alert Magazine and Swadeshi Jagaran Manch, recently organised a discussion on the theme of â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;India Reboot: Arming Indian Defenceâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;. The event was remarkable in the manner that the topics triggered many thoughts. Here are a few review comments from the eminent speakers who were present in the conference.

April 2017 dsalert.org

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In Search of Simple Solutions

Make in India for Defence

Air Marshal PV Athawale PVSM, AVSM, vsm (Retd)

We often mistake symptoms for problems and try to find quick-fix solutions. Just one such example is the fast reducing number of Air Force fighter squadrons. A few recommendations to empower the military include: • First and foremost, we have to set up an environment of no-blame. • It may sound illogical (what do forces know about design, development and manufacture) but, it is essential to assign indigenisation responsibility to the armed forces till we achieve a 50 per cent satisfaction level. After that the R&D and manufacturing industry will race ahead to give us the best anyway. coordination group of • A professionals with technomilitary acumen should be set up. Most importantly, this group should report directly to the Raksha Mantri. Acquisition

processes have to be considered as time bound projects. • There cannot be any ‘Make in India’ without the private sector. While we continue promoting the private industry through improvements in the DPP, the first thing that can facilitate the private industry is its entry into the MRO (Maintenance Repair Overhaul). For that, instead of looking at the armed forces workshops, the MRO undertaken by the DPSUs should be gradually shifted to the private industry with the DPSUs support and mentoring. • Finally, let us not look at our weaknesses alone. The nation’s strength in software has not been harnessed adequately for the military needs. Let ‘Make in India’ focus also largely on software for real-time operational systems and space and cyber domains.

The Case Of

Financial Viability

Amit Cowshish Former Financial Adviser (Acquisition) and Additional Secretary, Ministry of Defence.

While arming of the defence services is a continuous process, it is important to evolve short term outcome-oriented and financially viable plans. Clarity about what is required to be procured in, say, the next two years would put the modernisation drive on a sound footing, provided the shopping list is finalised keeping in view the likely availability of funds. Also, urgency of equipping the armed forces does

April 2017

not permit the luxury of continuous experimentation with procurement procedures, the endless wait for strategic partnership model being a case in point. Ironically, repeated efforts at simplification of procedures seem to be ending up in making them more complicated. Lastly, expenditure on capital acquisition has to be subjected to outcome-oriented monitoring to bring about accountability.

Defence AND security alert

CEPR event

india reboot

Arming India for Defence

Brig Rahul K bhonsle (RETD) Director of Security Risks Asia, New Delhi

The issue of arming India to meet the current and future challenges has been in the limelight for some time now. There has been much progress made but this is incremental. There is a need to review the process of military acquisitions holistically. While there have been consistent efforts to improve the acquisition process, this has focused on increasing the efficiency of the procurement procedure. Procedure-oriented reforms require a correspondingly live eco-system that can respond to changes effectively. Unfortunately, there is a uniform lack of expertise on defence acquisitions across the board. As a result, there is an impression of down sliding rather than forward

movementÂ in reforms. Take the case of the assault rifles for the armed forces as an example. Evidently,Â it has taken over five years to evolve a Service Qualitative Requirement that is viable for effective application in the field by the soldier as well as a weapon which can be produced by the industry. Precious time was wasted in trials of the twin barrel assault rifle until the project was scrapped. There are many other examples that can be flagged. What is required is to shift from the incremental to a design thinking approach, to defence modernisation process with a human centric approach with focus on seeking solutions that can be delivered effectively in the existing and the desired eco-system.

Defence Industrial Base, The Way Forward

Pawan Agrawal CEO and Publisher DSA magazine

With the world fast levitating into the Fourth Generation Warfare syndrome, developing nations like India are on the anvil to bolster and toughen up their National Security. Some suggestions for certain crucial and imperative transfigurations are: Dedicated department under the Ministry of Industry consisting of experts in Defence and Security with hands-on experience to mentor private sector companies interested in producing weapons and equipment. Permissions, approvals, licenses should be provided at one window. Special tax holidays and rebates

April 2017 dsalert.org

@dsalert

to such industries that produce products for National Security. A Data Bank of capabilities along with their technical and financial strengths (by way of expertise and infrastructure) of Indian companies that are interested in tie-ups with foreign manufacturers should be developed at the earliest. Special banking provisions should be made for credits and loans for such companies by establishing a dedicated Defence and Security Development Bank (DSDB) on the pattern of the IDBI.

March 2017

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Issue 07

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RNEY...

RNI NO. DELENG/2009/31195