Defence and Security Alert Magazine (DSA) January 2018 Edition

150 The First and Only ISO 9001:2015 Cer tified Defence and Securit y Magazine in India

January 2018

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Volume 9 issue 04

Manipur

Bangladesh

Tripura Mizoram

West Bengal

Myanmar x’s Co Ba za r Ra kh in eS te ta

Rohingya Crisis & India

Gen Bipin Rawat, UYSM, AVSM, YSM, SM, VSM

man For the moment ...

editor’s note

DSA is as much yours,

as it is ours!

C

hief of Army Staff, Gen Bipin Rawat has spoken twice about politicisation in the service. Something must seriously be worrying him since he has spoken about this issue twice in a span of few months. When the COAS speaks, on anything, it matters. And when he speaks about a sensitive issue like this, it matters ever more. He is obviously privy to more than what anyone else would know, so his observation, and his carefully worded advice, needs to be taken seriously. It is not something of an everyday topic, but one that goes at the heart of Army functioning.

As COAS, his main concern remains the efficient functioning of the service. The role of some in uniform must be irksome enough for him to comment on this issue, twice in quick succession. Any officers, or jawans, falling out of line in this respect must be dealt with firmly, fairly, and within the full confines of military law as it currently prevails. The issue is of equal importance when it comes to officers or jawans, probably more so in the case of the

latter as they are more exposed to politics in their, largely, rural lives.

It is clear that the Army as an institution is changing. As the change is an unavoidable aspect of life, which cannot be avoided by even the most rigid and tradition-bound institution.

So, it is better to pre-empt and prepare for change, rather than resist or ignore it. Change, if preempted, can be modulated to suit the peculiar circumstances of the service. And it is something that the Army must put into motion, through an assessment, analysis, and an all-round appraisal of prevailing conditions. Foresight isn’t impossible; it needs just that much will to put it into place.

The will to impose rules is obviously there since Army HQs has recently imposed an even harsher sentence on an erring Brigadier in Eastern Command.

The sentence initially given was found too lenient by Army HQs which upped the punishment.

This willingness to come down harshly is, indeed, welcome in an era of lackadaisical enforcement of law. An overt consistency in

January 2018

this regard will go a long way in promoting an environment of firmness, discipline, and fairness. All of which are essential ingredients to running an institution as large, diverse, and important to the country as is the Army.

India’s national security scenario remains complex, heated, and deeply challenging. Even as the Line of Control witnesses unseasonal activities, China has upped the ante in the east and frequently, correlates it to the western border to take the heat off Pakistan. While President Donald Trump would like to turn up the heat on Pakistan, China will do all it can to reduce, or neutralise the pressures. In between the two is India, and its diplomatic challenges can best be handled when backed by a strong and efficient Army. It is for this reason that any concern voiced by the COAS must be heeded to, and addressed to the fullest. It is in national interest to do so.

Manvendra Singh

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publisher’s view

An ISO 9001:2015 Certified Magazine

Volume 9 | Issue 04 | January 2018 Chairman Shyam Sunder Publisher and ceo Pawan Agrawal President Urvashi J Agrawal Director Shishir Bhushan Editor-in-Chief Manvendra Singh

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Rohingyas: Victims of Reverse Social Engineering

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Republic Day greetings to all esteemed readers!

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The migration in the Syria-Iraq battleground caused severe problems and hostile reactions between the extant populations and the incoming hordes throughout Europe. The past few months have witnessed a cataclysmic change within our own region displacing millions of Rohingya inhabitants from Myanmar.

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Editor: Manvendra Singh

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M

igration has always been a means of civilisational change ever since the humans have evolved. In the present age,migrations have either been triggered by religious persecutionor, as in the 21st century in the West Asia/Middle East salient by mindless military adventurism.

The religious orientation (Muslim) and the racial antecedents (Bengali) have never been accepted by the Myanmarese who are largely Buddhist and speak their own dialect. India has discovered Rohingyas as deep within its own territory in already troubled Jammu and Kashmir and sees them as a potential extension of the fundamentalist Islam that has plagued the Syria-Iraq landscape. The Burmese have never accepted the Rohingya and have rendered them “stateless” under its Constitution and deprived them of all the civil amenities, thus, treating them as “resident foreigners” or “associate citizens”.

How to deal with this influx of immigrants is a conundrum confronting India, Bangladesh and Myanmar. There have been conflicts between the Rohingyas and the Buddhists over several decades which led to the loss of thousands of lives. It was quite unfortunate that the Rohingyas were dragged into the terrorist activities against the Myanmar government by terrorist groups operating under the flag of the ARSA. This edition of DSA highlights this problem.

January, also, is a month when the Indian Army celebrates its annual day i.e. on January 14. We are proud of our Army and its commitment to the safety and security of the nation from any adverse situation that may arise. I am sure, dear readers, that this edition will give you a complete view on the preparedness of our Army and the emerging problems of Rohingyas. Jai Hind!

January 2018 Defence AND security alert

Pawan Agrawal

contents

An ISO 9001:2015 Certified Magazine

India Must Be On Guard Maj Gen Dhruv C Katoch (Retd)

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Neighbours In Soup Brig Dr Anil Sharma (Retd)

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Creative Tightrope Walk Ashok Sajjanhar

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Balancing Asia Harsh V Pant

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Gen Bipin Rawat In The Hot Seat Cecil Victor

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Nutrition On The Battlefield Dr Rakesh Kumar Sharma

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Need For Circumpspection Jaideep Saikia

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Indian Army Training Afghan Women Brig Rahul K Bhonsle (Retd)

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No Peaceful Co-existence Dr Sudhanshu Tripathi

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New Templates: ‘Act East’ Dr Abhishek Srivastava

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January 2018

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rohingya crisis

GLOBAL SECURITY RAMIFICATIONS

India Must Be On Guard

India, too, has a large number of Rohingyas in West Bengal, J&K and in other parts of the country. These Rohingya remain a potential threat to the nation, especially when Pakistan-based terrorist groups, aided by the State, are focussed on subverting them. The challenge across the region, though humanitarian, has assumed deep political and security overtones, which unfortunately are justified.

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he Rakhine State (formerly Arakan) of Myanmar, a strip of land along the eastern coast of the Bay of Bengal from the Naf River on the border of Chittagong to the Cape Negarise is home to the Rohingya (pronounced Roh-hihn-juh). With a population of two million and a land area of 13,540 square miles, it is separated from the rest of Myanmar by the Yuma Range running north to south. It is here that politics and violence around the identity of the Rohingya has been played out over the last few hundred years.

The Rohingya, a predominantly Muslim group, is numbered over 1.1 million. Closely related to the Bengali people, the majority of Rohingya originally migrated from the Indian subcontinent towards the East into ‘Theravada Buddhist Myanmar,’ especially during the British colonial period. According to Professor Andrew Selth of Griffith University, although a few

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Within the local communities where the Rohingya reside, there has been a perceptible undermining of the general law and order situation Rohingya trace their ancestry to Muslims who lived in Arakan in the 15th and 16th centuries, yet most Rohingya arrived with the British colonialists in the 19th and 20th centuries. Religious and cultural differences, exacerbated by economic concerns led to conflict between Muslims and Buddhists, worsening the situation during the country’s liberation struggle. During World

January 2018 Defence AND security alert

War II, the Rohingya Muslims allied with the British on the promise of being given a separate Muslim State in return. They fought against the local Rakhine Buddhists who were allied with the Japanese.

Non-Citizens From 1947 to 1961, Rohingya mujahideen fought government forces in an attempt to have the mostly Rohingya populated region around the Mayu peninsula in northern Arakan (present-day Rahkine State), gain autonomy or secede and become a part of former East Pakistan. This insurgency petered out in the early 1960s.

Presently, the Government of Myanmar considers the Rohingya to be Bengali, rejecting the term Rohingya as a recent invention, created for political reasons. They are accordingly, not officially recognised by the Government of Myanmar as its citizens.

To support the Rohingya, wealthy individuals in Saudi Arabia,

Pakistan and elsewhere pumped in funds to a group known as Harakah al-Yaqin, Arabic for “faith movement�. With the inflow of weapons and money, the group, which now calls itself the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, or ARSA carried out systematic attacks on unarmed Buddhists in Rakhine State, forcing many locals to flee. Matters came to a head when ARSA attacked multiple Burmese border posts on August 25, 2017, resulting in the death of many officers and men.

This prompted reprisals by the Myanmar military, triggering a crisis of gargantuan proportions, with a large number of Rohingya

fleeing Rakhine and taking shelter for the most part in neighbouring Bangladesh, with a few finding their way to other countries, and some even coming to India.

The Rohingya issue, unfortunately, cannot be looked upon as simply a humanitarian crisis of humungous proportions.

None of the host states is prepared to accept the Rohingya because the issue is being seen, not solely in inhumanitarian terms, but also through the security and political lens. The cultural confrontation that took place between the Rohingya and the Buddhists has the potential

January 2018

Maj Gen Dhruv C Katoch (retd) The writer is NCR based defence analyst and a former Director, Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS) New Delhi.

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rohingya crisis GLOBAL SECURITY RAMIFICATIONS

to flare-up in the host countries too, with the Rohingya taking up cudgels against the host country.

These refugees are increasingly being seen as a “non-traditional security threat�. The massive influx of the Rohingya during the last decades has, indeed, become a source of concern, throwing up psycho-social and human security challenges in Myanmar and in their new host countries across the region.

Breeding Ground For Extremism As the Rohingya is not recognised by the Myanmar government, they are, as of now, stateless refugees. In the host country, they live in illegal settlements under deplorable conditions. The local communities feel threatened by their presence, as each additional person becomes a burden on the community at large, which itself is abysmally poor. These refugees also have to deal with the local law enforcement agencies, which creates its own set of concerns; both among the Rohingya as well as the security forces. With restricted access to work opportunities and for daily sustenance, the community is a soft target for criminal networks, illegal businesses, and Islamic fundamentalist groups like the Taliban, Lashkare-Taiba (LeT), Jama’atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), or Harkat-ul Jihad-al Islami (Huji).

The security ramifications are, hence, immense as the Rohingya crisis has inevitably got entangled in the global war on terror. The deplorable living conditions make

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Oppressed Refugees - Humanity Distressed

The Rohingya crisis is also creating ripples in the international arena with relations between Bangladesh and Myanmar getting increasingly strained the Rohingya especially vulnerable to terror groups, who find in this mass of people, an ideal hunting ground for recruitment by international jihadist movements.

Little wonder than that the local population perceives the stateless Rohingya refugees, particularly

January 2018 Defence AND security alert

those living in illegal camps or unregistered as refugees, to be the cause of conflict.

Over the years, some of the Rohingya have, undoubtedly, been radicalised and not only have active links with banned organisations such as JMB or HUJI, but have become sympathetic to their fundamentalist worldview.

Some analysts also believe that the Rohingya are using their international network to further the cause of militant groups in the host country through provision of funds, weapons and training.

This is of special concern to countries like Bangladesh, which is bearing the brunt of the illegal Rohingya migration.

Criminal Networks Within the local communities where the Rohingya reside, there has been a perceptible undermining of the general law and order situation. Besides fuelling

It would be naive to believe that terrorist organisations would not take advantage of the situation in regional job markets would, likewise, lead to straining the limited employment opportunities that are available, creating socioeconomic tensions in the region.

Bangadesh-Myanmar Confrontation

religious extremism and violence, the Rohingya are increasingly being used by criminal networks in their host country for a slew of criminal activities such as narcotic smuggling, human trafficking, illegal trade in SALW (small arms and light weapons) and ammunition, stealing, armed robbery, extortion, prostitution, sexual slavery, domestic servitude and the like. While the Rohingya is, majorly, a victim in such crimes, the community is increasingly being viewed as the causal factor for the increase in crime and conflict.

The concerns of the host nations are certainly not misplaced.

The local communities see the Rohingya as a drain on their meagre economic resources.

There are also genuine fears that a large influx of Rohingya could potentially lead to alter the demographic balance, and the penetration of the refugees

The Rohingya crisis is also creating ripples in the international arena with relations between Bangladesh and Myanmar getting increasingly strained. There is an underlying mood that though the crisis is humanitarian in content, it has huge security implications for all countries, even those which do not have any Rohingya immigrants, due to the linkages of some of the Rohingya with international terrorist organisations. Besides the terror angle, we are also witnessing delays in enhancing regional connectivity (infrastructure), which is being attributed to the Rohingya problem. With ARSA appearing “determined to regroup and remain relevant,” as per a report of the International Crisis Group (ICG), it may draw on desperate Rohingya refugees languishing in camps for future operations. The report further goes on to say that the group may shift to cross-border attacks, using Bangladesh as a base for recruitment and training. The risk of an ever-deepening cycle of violence is, hence, all too real.

More ominously, the ICG report has warned that the Rohingya’s

January 2018

plight has become a “cause célèbre of the Muslim world” with al-Qaeda, Islamic State and other global jihadi groups calling for attacks on Myanmar. In response, the attitude of the government and the people of Myanmar against the Rohingya have further toughened.

While ARSA has distanced itself from any wider global cause for jihad, saying it is only fighting to protect Rohingya rights, it would be naive to believe that terrorist organisations would not take advantage of the situation and promote their cause using Rohingya as cannon fodder.

In the emerging scenario, while Myanmar has accepted as of now, through Chinese mediation to take back those Rohingya which it considers are not stoking terror, the overall outlook remains bleak.

India, too, has a large number of Rohingya in West Bengal, J&K and in other parts of the country. These Rohingya remain a potential threat to the nation, especially when Pakistan-based terrorist groups, aided by the State, are focussed on subverting them. The challenge across the region, though humanitarian, has assumed deep political and security overtones, which unfortunately are justified.

How the situation will unravel is a work in progress, but for India, it would be advisable to remain on guard against any unforeseen eventuality.

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rohingya crisis FESTERING SORE

Neighbours In Soup

Recent Agreement between Myanmar and Bangladesh (November 23, 2017) for refugee repatriation is a good beginning as it defines bilateral negotiations as the framework, mandating that the United Nations be involved only “as needed.” The deal calls for the voluntary return of refugees once citizenship is verified but puts oversight of this verification in the hands of the Myanmar government. Bangladesh wants the full implementation of the terms of a Kofi Annan UN Commission.

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he Rohingya are connected to India, Bangladesh and Myanmar through bonds of history, geography, culture, colonial

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legacy and ethnicity as also geopolitically. The Rohingya are an ethnic Muslim minority group living in Myanmar’s western Rakhine State; they practice a Sufi-inflected variation of Sunni

January 2018 Defence AND security alert

Islam. They are closer through language, culture, and religion to the dominant Bengali population of Bangladesh than Myanmar’s Buddhists. Rohingya language is almost similar to Bangla dialect

spoken in Chittagong. Their population is approximately one million and comprises 1.7 per cent of Myanmar’s total population of 55,123,814. Buddhists form about 87.2 per cent of population.

In Rakhine State, however, there are 52.2 per cent Buddhists and 42.7 per cent Rohingya, religious tensions, therefore, are much higher than rest of the country.

Legacy Rohingya Muslims came to the former Arakan Kingdom in fifteenth century. Many others arrived during the nineteenth and early twentieth century. The British, as colonial ruler, prior to World War II, had moved large number of Rohingya from East Bengal to work on rubber and tea plantations in Burma (Myanmar), which was a province of India until 1937, thereafter, it became a separate self-governing colony.

Rohingya migrants settled mainly in Arakan region bordering East Bengal (Bangladesh).

During Japanese invasion of Arakan in 1942 and British counter-offensive, local Buddhists largely supported Japanese and Rohingya sided with British, even enrolling into ‘Guerilla Victor Force’. Emboldened by the open British support, Rohingya militants set-out to settle old scores with the Buddhists.

In July 1946, Rohingyas demanded secession of northern Arakan from Myanmar. Later, they joined the forces demanding the creation of Pakistan.

Preceding and during the partition and blood-bath of 1947,

Rohingya militants attacked Buddhists to drive them out and join East Pakistan. They are, in fact, vanguard of jihadi Islamic radicals.

Rohingya Islamist movements re-emerged from 1970 onwards, with a series of insurgent groups rising and fading away. The aim of the groups was to establish an Islamist State within a Buddhist State through jihad and demographic change.

Genesis Governments in Myanmar since independence (1948) have refuted Rohingya’s historical claims and denied the group recognition as one of the country’s 135 ethnic groups.

Under the 1982 Burmese Citizenship Law, Rohingya are denied the right to claim Burmese citizenship and treated as illegal migrants. They face restrictions on their movement, education, employment, healthcare services, and information.

This has generated among Rohingyas, a feeling of disaffection and persecution by the government and majority community.

Myanmar government and ethnic Buddhist group, known as the Rakhine, reject the use of the label “Rohingya,” and view it as an attempt to gain ethnical political identity that will entitle them to a separate State as per Myanmar Constitution. If the Rohingya self-identify just as a religious group, they could enjoy citizenship rights like other Muslims in the rest of Myanmar.

January 2018

Brig Dr Anil Sharma (retd) MMS from Osmania University, PhD (System Dynamics Modeling of National Security Strategy and Force Restructuring), The writer is Fellow of Army War College.

He has been Head of Office of Net Assessment and Professor and Director at University of Petroleum and Energy Studies, Dehradun. He has published number of papers on strategy and security. He is currently working with Vivekananda International Foundation.

Myanmar on its part should tackle root issues like denial of citizenship rights to Rohingya and discriminatory policies

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rohingya crisis FESTERING SORE

Given the concentration of Rohingyas next to Bangladesh, where Islam is becoming increasingly radical, Buddhistmajority Myanmar, would not accept them as an ethnic entity.

This multi-level connect drives the undercurrents of geopolitical fires fuelled by turbulence among Rohingya people.

This paper is confined to the dynamics of India, Bangladesh and Myanmar, excluding other significant stakeholders like China, ASEAN and other countries.

Current Trigger On August 25, 2017, armed militants from a Rohingya insurgent group in Myanmar mounted attacks on 30 government targets, including police outposts and an army base, in the northern Rakhine State.

Those killed included 10 police officers, a soldier, an immigration official and 77 insurgents. The Myanmar military then conducted “clearance operations” across Rakhine State. The violence forced nearly 1, 25,000 Rohingya to flee their homes, most of them fleeing across the border to Bangladesh.

Use of scorched earth policy (gang-rape, and extra-judicial killings, confinement) against militants by the government is a standard practice. It is the alarming pace and scale, at which these atrocities were committed, makes this crisis different. The apparent intent was to remove the Rohingya from the country pandering to widespread popular prejudice against them.

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Myanmar Rohingya refugee camp

The militants belong to Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) formed in 2013 in Saudi Arabia, aided by fatwas from clerics in countries with significant Rohingya diaspora to justify use of violence against the Myanmar armed forces. It has carried out attacks on security forces in 2016 also.

The Myanmar military has mined the border with Bangladesh where Rohingyas are fleeing to

January 2018 Defence AND security alert

guard the nation’s stability and in response to pressure from the private sector, human rights groups and non-governmental organisations.

Myanmar – The Pakistan Connection Myanmar’s campaign against ARSA, and treatment of its Rohingya Muslims, has caused discontent in the Islamic world.

Muslim-majority countries of Southeast, South Asia and Middle

the hands of the government, Buddhist extremists, and Arakan nationalist groups.

Notwithstanding military’s brutal operations, the international community from the Western and Muslim world has been away from the ground realities. Critics fail to understand the militarycivilian relations and other complexities of Myanmar politics where issues like ethnicity, history, and cultural identity are key ingredients of legitimacy.

If leader Suu Kyi tries to take an accommodating view on the Rohingyas, the military can easily align with the Buddhist nationalists, who have hatred for the Rohingyas. This would undermine her power, dealing a blow to fledgling democracy in Myanmar.

East have spoken out against the Rohingya displacement and atrocities committed.

Rakhine is increasingly becoming a magnet for the global jihadist movement. There are reports of Rohingya radicals being aided by militant organizations in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan with suspected links with Islamic State, Lashkar-e-Taiba, al-Qaida and even Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence

agency. After the 2012 communal riots in Rakhine, Ata Ullah, the Pakistani who heads the ARSA, reportedly returned to Pakistan from an extended stay in Saudi Arabia with millions of dollars to wage jihad against Myanmar.

Radicals find safe sanctuary and breeding grounds among marginalized and persecuted Rohingya youth (nearly 45 percent of Rohingya population), who face routine harassment at

January 2018

The ongoing situation presents a potential, transnational flashpoint for Jihadi-Salafi organisations. Since thousands of battle-hardened, ISIS-affiliated foreign fighters are seeking new missions to defend Muslims, post-collapse of ISIS in Syria and Iraq. There is an unmistakable potential for their intervention.

Bangladesh– Turbulence Compounded Bangladesh has failed to act on the Rohingya refugee crisis.

Thousands have crossed into Bangladesh, where despite offers of international assistance, the Bangladesh government continues to deny the majority of Rohingya basic humanitarian relief or the right to legally register as refugees.

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rohingya crisis FESTERING SORE

Refugees in Pangs of Hunger

Recalcitrance of Bangladesh stems from its poverty, governmental incapacity and a complex border with Myanmar where other trans-national groups also carry out terrorist, criminal, drug and human trafficking activities with near impunity. There have been drugrelated and violent crimes in Cox’s Bazar and attacks on Buddhist community in southeastern Bangladesh by Rohingyas.

Bangladesh lacks a comprehensive refugee policy. The 2014 Strategy has five elements: listing unregistered refugees, providing temporary basic humanitarian relief, strengthening border management, diplomatic engagement with Myanmar, and increasing national level coordination. It does not allow opportunities for self-reliance

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India needs Myanmar military’s cooperation to deal with the insurgent groups in the northeast

regions also accounts for the plight of the Rohingya. The unchecked movement of Rohingya refugees adds to the Bangladesh government’s legitimate concerns about the area. Its concerns are aggravated by reports that some ethnic insurgencies and transnational Islamist groups have used the area as a base of operations.

India’s Dilemma to refugees. There are reported plans to relocate the refugee camps from their current location near Cox’s Bazar to an island in the Bay of Bengal to boost the number of tourists visiting Cox’s Bazar’s famous beaches.

Bangladesh’s highly strained relationship with Myanmar due to differences over border security and insurgencies in

January 2018 Defence AND security alert

India finds that it has to balance between its security concerns and humanitarian considerations in sync with imperatives of history.

India had warned Myanmar of possible attacks by the ARSA prior to the August incident and of an increased presence of Pakistan-based/ funded terror organisations seeking to exploit Rohingya resentments.

Influence of Bangladeshi radical organisations such as the Jamaat-e-Islami initially, and then its youth wing, the Islamic Chatra Shabir, within the refugee camps is a mutual cause of concern. Then there is Rohingya Students Organisation (RSO) with known links with groups such as the HarkatulJihad al-Islami (HuJI) along with Hizb-e- Islami of Afghanistan and the Hizbul Mujahideen.

The Rohingya people have been entering India illegally as immigrants since September 2017. An estimated 40,000 Rohingya immigrants have crossed the borders of India.

Government intends to deport these as some of the Rohingyas with militant background were found to be very active in sensitive Jammu region, Delhi, Hyderabad, and Mewar. They also pose danger to the Buddhist population of India.

found sanctuary on the Myanmar side of the border.

4 China has set up a gas and oil pipeline running from the Rakhine port of Kyaukphyu to Kunming. It has backed Myanmar, hoping it will bring security to a region important for China’s energy security.

4 India has found it difficult to counter Chinese influence in Myanmar, with China selling everything from weapons to food grains there, and projecting power in the Indian Ocean

4 In September 2017, with Bangladesh bearing the economic and physical burden of refugees, New Delhi was made to modify its position on the Rohingya issue and acknowledged that there is a refugee crisis. India urged the Myanmar government to exercise restraint, maturity and focus on the welfare of the civilian population. Perhaps, because of this nuanced position, Myanmar has allowed India to provide aid in the form of infrastructure and socio-economic projects to Rakhine province. India has now signed a pact to provide

Geopolitical compulsions are also shaping India’s approach; 4 India’s Act East Policy is linked to land connections with Myanmar. It has two major planks — economic development in northeast India and balancing China’s influence. China has declared its open support for Myanmar’s “anti-terror” operations. Any open criticism of Myanmar could undermine India’s influence.

4 India needs Myanmar military’s cooperation to deal with the insurgent groups in the northeast, who in the past, have

will become an even greater challenge if China increases its naval presence in Myanmar.

Thus, India’s policy includes India-Myanmar-Thailand Asian Trilateral Highway, the Kaladanmultimodal project (linking Sittwe to Kolkota), a road-river-port cargo transport project, and of course, the Bay of Bengal Initiative for MultiSectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC).

January 2018

$ 25 million over the next five years to develop Rakhine province without any crisis-related pre-conditions.

4 While the Indian government exercises caution and restraint in its approach to the Rohingya issue, civil society and human rights groups want New Delhi to take an active role in seeing the refugees back to their homeland with peace and dignity.

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rohingya crisis FESTERING SORE

A temporary camp in Rakhine State

India’s approach to Myanmar’s Rohingya crisis demonstrates the friction between its geopolitical interests and values. Perforce, it has to maintain a delicate balance when it comes to its neighbourhood.

Myanmar, on its part should tackle root issues, like denial of citizenship rights to Rohingya and discriminatory policies. Bangladesh can take following steps; implement a sympathetic and realistic refugee policy and, except for suspected

Concluding Prognosis The predicament of the Rohingyas is also a result of contemporary geopolitical realities and strategic calculations by key stakeholders in the region and elsewhere.

It is in India’s interest to ensure that stability and peace return to the Rakhine State. India can ask the Myanmar to rehabilitate the Rohingyas when conditions are peaceful enough. An unsettled situation can escalate to a greater security flux, thus India has to remain pro-actively engaged.

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An unsettled situation can escalate to a greater security flux drug smugglers/ militants, allow other Rohingya refugees into the country for immediate registration duly aligned with its regulations.

Recent agreement between Myanmar and Bangladesh

January 2018 Defence AND security alert

(November 23, 2017) for refugee repatriation is a good beginning as it defines bilateral negotiations as the framework, mandating that the United Nations be involved only “as needed.” The deal calls for the voluntary return of refugees once citizenship is verified but puts oversight of this verification in the hands of the Myanmar government.

Bangladesh wants a more holistic solution that will prevent future crises. It is pushing for the full implementation of the terms of a Kofi Annan UN Commission.

A volatile stability will continue to prevail, keeping all three major stake-holders on watch and working towards a mutually reconciled solution.

rohingya crisis WHAT SHOULD INDIA DO?

Creative Tightrope Walk

Ashok Sajjanhar

Solution of the issue lies in Myanmar, not in Bangladesh or India or any other country. Vitriolic criticism of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi by international community will not make Myanmar to change its position. Diplomacy and discussion is the only way to persuade Myanmar to modify its approach. Myanmar needs to be convinced that it is in its own interest to have an urgent, inclusive, peaceful resolution of the matter.

T

he latest Rohingya crisis suddenly burst upon the consciousness and conscience of the international community about four months ago,

end-August 2017 to be precise.

Impact on Myanmars’ neighbours, particularly Bangladesh and India, has been much more intense and severe than on countries situated far away.

Devastated Villages

January 2018

The writer, a postgraduate in Physics from Delhi University and a career diplomat, has served as the Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia.

He has also held several significant positions in Indian Embassies in Moscow, Tehran, Geneva, Dhaka, Bangkok, Washington and Brussels.

He negotiated for India in the Uruguay Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations. He has been an active participant in many of the International Seminars organised by the UNCTAD and the WTO.

Within India, the issue has become extremely divisive.

The serious concern is that amongst the refugees could be members of ARSA with linkages to Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Jamaat-udDawa, Lashkare-Taiba, etc.

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rohingya crisis WHAT SHOULD INDIA DO?

Historical Perspective The Rohingya people are a stateless Indo-Aryan people from the western, coastal Rakhine State of Myanmar. There were an estimated 1 million Rohingyas living in Myanmar before the recent crisis, majority of them being Muslim. Described by the United Nations in 2013 as one of

history to the 8th century, Burmese law does not recognise the ethnic minority as one of the national races.”

Rohingyas are restricted from freedom of movement, state education and civil service jobs.

Rohingyas maintain that they are long-standing residents of Myanmar

Bangladesh has been the worst affected nation by the refugee crisis. It is reported to have received more than 600,000 refugees since the crisis erupted the most persecuted minorities in the world, the Rohingyas are not recognised as an ethnic minority.

They were denied citizenship under the 1982 Burmese citizenship law. According to Human Rights Watch (HRW), the 1982 laws “effectively deny to the Rohingya the possibility of acquiring a nationality. Despite being able to trace Rohingya

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and their community includes both a mixture of pre-colonial and colonial settlers. Myanmar’s government does not recognise the term “Rohingya” and prefers to refer to them as “Bengalis”.

The Current Crisis On August 25, 2017, after weeks of rising tension, militants from the group Arakan Rohingya

January 2018 Defence AND security alert

Salvation Army (ARSA) attacked at least 25 police posts and killed several Myanmar security personnel. The government calls ARSA a terrorist organisation. The International Crisis Group (ICG) says that the group’s leader is Ata Ullah who was born in Pakistan and raised in Saudi Arabia. The ARSA has been training people since 2013 but their first attack was in October 2016, when they killed nine police officers. Clashes were reported from many areas, sometimes involving Rohingya villagers joining the militants to fight the security forces. In many cases, the security forces, sometimes backed by armed Buddhist civilians, burned Rohingya villages and opened fire on their inhabitants. It is reported that Buddhist communities were also attacked and some inhabitants got killed.

According to United Nations, the human rights violations against Rohingyas could be termed as “textbook ethnic cleansing” and “crimes against humanity”.

All condemnation by UN and organisations like HRW has been vehemently refuted by Myanmar government. Many photos and videos purporting to be from the conflict are gruesome and inflammatory—most of them reported as fake.

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi – Myanmar’s de-facto leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate who spent many years under house arrest in the junta-run Myanmar – is under growing criticism over this issue. She has claimed that

reports in the international media constitute a “huge iceberg of misinformation”. She maintains that tensions are being fanned by fake news promoting interests of terrorists. In her address to the nation on September 19, she expressed readiness to take back, after due verification, those refugees who had fled. She also expressed ignorance of reasons for their mass exodus.

Several international leaders including Pope Francis, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Singapore foreign minister and delegations from Canada, UK, EU, etc. have visited Myanmar and Bangladesh to resolve the crisis.

At China’s initiative, Myanmar

and Bangladesh have agreed to a three-phase plan for refugees to return. Skeptics, however, contend that similar accords have been signed in the past but have not been implemented by Myanmar. It is to be observed whether China’s involvement this time round will apply greater pressure on Myanmar to fulfill its commitments. Under this agreement, repatriation of refugees was due to commence around January 21, 2018.

According to discussions on December 19, 2017, in a joint working group established between Myanmar and Bangladesh, this is likely to be delayed by a few weeks.

India’s Dilemma The growing crisis has put India in a difficult situation. When

January 2018

Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Myanmar from September 5-7, 2017, on the way back from China after attending the BRICS Summit, he generously praised the leadership of Aung San Suu Kyi and expressed full support against terrorist attacks on Myanmar security forces. He also stated that India will work with Myanmar to improve the socio-economic conditions in Rakhine State. Aung San Suu Kyi, who was under intense international pressure, expressed fulsome gratitude for the unambiguous support from the world’s largest democracy.

Myanmar is extremely significant for India’s security, stability and prosperity, particularly of its northeastern States. Myanmar is a vital partner in India’s business

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rohingya crisis WHAT SHOULD INDIA DO?

and connectivity initiatives with ASEAN countries. Several major connectivity projects including the Trilateral Highway from India’s northeast to Thailand and beyond through Myanmar, and Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project, are in advanced stages of implementation.

Myanmar security forces are extending support to deny space and territory to Indian insurgents in Myanmar to carry out militant attacks against Indian civilians and security forces across the 1,640 km border with India. The success of India’s Act East Policy depends largely on productive relations with Myanmar.

The expanding presence and increasing influence of China in Myanmar is a matter of growing concern for India. This necessitates a robust reach out to Myanmar and its leadership.

Bangladesh Crunch Simultaneously, India’s relations with Bangladesh are equally important. On account of bold leadership of Prime Ministers Modi and Sheikh Hasina, relations between the two countries are the best they have been since 1975.

Bangladesh has been the worst affected nation by the refugee crisis. It is reported to have received more than 600,000 refugees since the crisis erupted.

Its capacity to accommodate these refugees is bursting at the seams. Sheikh Hasina finds herself under increasing pressure on this issue from opposition parties, particularly, Bangladesh Nationalist Party

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and Jamaat-e-Islami, both of which lean towards Pakistan.

China’s increasing leverage in Bangladesh to the detriment of India’s traditional primacy and cordial relations is a matter of concern. Bangladesh goes to polls next year and Sheikh Hasina could face an uphill battle if she does not find a quick, satisfactory solution to the issue. Because of this, India significantly modified its position on September 9 and advised Myanmar to use restraint so that it does not add to the unbearable physical and political burden on Bangladesh. Bangladesh looks upon India to resolve the crisis by persuading Myanmar to stop forcing out refugees and to accept back those that have already fled.

January 2018 Defence AND security alert

Bangladesh needs all possible material, diplomatic and moral support to deal with this catastrophe. Under its ‘‘Insaniyat’’ (Humanitarian) initiative, India has promised 7,000 tonnes of relief material including food items, medicines, tents, etc. for refugees in Bangladesh. Daily flights carrying these materials are travelling to Dhaka to provide succor to the refugees.

Potent Issue Within India, the issue has become extremely divisive. India has traditionally welcomed all refugees whether from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Tibet or elsewhere, although it is not a signatory to the 1951 UN Refugee Convention. Yet in the

only way to persuade Myanmar to modify its approach. Myanmar needs to be convinced that it is in its own interest to have an urgent, inclusive, peaceful resolution of the matter.

Myanmar needs international support for its political and economic development which it will receive by becoming a responsible member of the international community. Myanmar should be encouraged to seriously consider implementing suggestions contained in the Kofi Annanled Advisory Commission on Rakhine State. In several areas in Myanmar, the military still calls the shots. It controls 25 per cent of parliamentary seats as well as ministerial positions in defence, internal security, border affairs, etc. Aung San Suu Kyi’s authority is, hence, considerably limited. present instance, the serious concern is that amongst the refugees could be members of ARSA with linkages to Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Jamaat-ud-Dawa, Lashkar-e-Taiba, etc. Pakistan’s ISI is reported to be active in training terrorist elements amongst the refugees. This poses a serious security challenge to India. It has, hence, declared its intention to deport 40,000 refugees who have come to India.

The government informed the country’s Supreme Court on September 18 in response to a petition filed by two refugees that the Rohingyas constitute “a serious security threat to the country”. Militant activists have been found amongst refugees temporarily settled in Jammu, Delhi, Hyderabad and Mewar.

India has been criticised by domestic opposition parties and civil society groups for its decision to deport these refugees because they are Muslims.

The government has staunchly refuted these charges. India has also found itself at the receiving end of international opprobrium including from the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and others. India has resolutely defended its position.

The Way Forward Solution of the issue lies in Myanmar, not in Bangladesh or India or any other country.

Vitriolic criticism of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi by international community will not make Myanmar to change its position.

Diplomacy and discussion is the

January 2018

There is urgent need for pro-active and smart diplomacy by India.

India has to undertake a creative tightrope walk with Myanmar. It is admirably equipped to do that.

It has to simultaneously contend with challenges in its relations with its two extremely significant and sensitive neighbours, Bangladesh and Myanmar, as well as with international human rights watchdogs. Domestically, it has to stave-off outcries from opposition parties and civil society organisations. The coming days will show whether India is able to rise up to the challenge. Its performance over last several months in effectively dealing with formidable challenges give reason to hope that it will emerge triumphant.

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regional strategic partnerships SINGAPORE-PHILIPPINES EXTENSION

Balancing Asia

The regional states are looking at external balancers. The regional security architecture is under strain there as China’s divide-and-rule policy has made it difficult for regional States to put up a united front. Many States have suggested that India needs to play a larger role. As India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) celebrate 25 years of their partnership this year, it is a politically opportune moment to upgrade India’s regional profile.

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ndia’s ties with members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have been growing rapidly. The year 2017 was a particularly significant year for IndiaASEAN ties as ASEAN and India commemorated 25 years of their partnership, 15 years of summit level interaction and five years of strategic partnership. New Delhi organised multiple events to observe the occasion, such

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as the signing of an air services agreement, a maritime expedition by the Indian Navy ships to the region and a motor rally, in order to demonstrate the air, maritime and land connectivity between the two actors. India invited leaders of 10 Southeast Asian countries to attend the 2018 Republic Day celebrations as well as participate at the commemorative summit marking 25th anniversary of India’s ties

January 2018 Defence AND security alert

with the bloc. India’s Act East Policy puts ASEAN at the centre of India’s regional engagement.

Singapore Fulcrum In that larger framework, India’s ties with Singapore and the Philippines are particularly significant. Singapore has been significant in helping India forge closer ties with the ASEAN for over three decades and has continued to encourage India

to expand its engagement in the region. Singapore’s elderstatesman Lee Kuan Yew had argued some years ago that India must be “part of the Southeast Asia balance of forces” and “a counterweight [to China] in the Indian Ocean”. Singapore and India share long-standing defence relations, with bilateral engagements deepening since the signing of the Defence Cooperation Agreement (DCA) in 2003. Subsequently, both countries also signed the Air Force and Army Bilateral Agreements in 2007 and 2008.

During Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Singapore in November 2015, the two nations had signed a revised DCA leading to the establishment of a regular Defence Ministers’ dialogue, intensifying cooperation in maritime security and between the defence industries of the two countries. It followed an earlier Technical Agreement (TA) on the Sharing of WhiteShipping Information between the Republic of Singapore Navy and the Indian Navy. During Singaporean Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen’s visit to Delhi in November 2017, the IndiaSingapore Bilateral Agreement for Navy Cooperation was finalised which is expected to “lead to increased cooperation in maritime security, joint exercises, temporary deployments from each other’s naval facilities and mutual logistics support”. The two sides are keen on expanding maritime cooperation with joint exercises from the Strait of Malacca

to the Indian Ocean and in the Andaman Sea. In her first foreign visit as Defence Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman travelled to the Philippines in November 2017 to attend the ADMM (ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting)Plus meeting which focussed on the situation in Afghanistan and Syria as well as China’s growing military presence in the disputed South China Sea. Since the commencement of ADMMPlus in Hanoi in 2010, this group has tended to focus on key issues pertaining to regional security including maritime security, counter-terrorism, humanitarian assistance and peace-keeping operations.

Harsh V Pant

UNCLOS Agenda

The writer is a Professor of International Relations in Defence Studies Department and the India Institute at King’s College, London.

He is presently Head of the Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.

He is also an Associate at the Centre for Science and Security Studies and a Non-Resident Fellow with the Wadhwani Chair in US-India Policy Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC.

Sitharaman, in her remarks, also focussed on maritime security as a key regional concern, underlining India’s strong support for freedom of navigation, overflight and commerce throughout the region. In the context of China’s assertive behaviour in East and South China Seas, the Indian Defence Minister made it clear that “nations should resolve maritime disputes peacefully and in accordance with international law. We support a rules-based order for oceans and sea that is critical for the continued growth and development of the Indo-Pacific region”. It is interesting that this came at a time when the Chinese President Xi Jinping was emphasising China’s controversial islandbuilding project in the South China Sea in his address to the

Defence Minister Sitharaman, too, focussed on maritime security as a key regional concern, underlining India’s strong support for freedom of navigation, overflight and commerce throughout the region

January 2018

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regional strategic partnerships SINGAPORE-PHILIPPINES EXTENSION

ruling Communist national congress.

Party’s

The other focus of Sitharaman’s remarks at the ADMM-Plus meeting was on terrorism. She exhorted other Member States to take a strong stand in fighting terror activities and commended the Philippines “for reiterating India’s zero tolerance for terrorism anywhere and under any circumstances”. Asking the international community to move away from the binary of good and bad terrorism, she suggested that “terrorism and radicalisation through social media pose one of the most immediate and serious security challenges to our societies”.

Her comments were significant, as earlier in 2017, India decided to provide a financial assistance of $5,00,000 (Rs. 3.2 crore) to the Philippines to aid its fight against the Islamic State (IS)-affiliated terror groups in the troubled Mindanao province. This is the first time India is sending aid to another nation to help it fight terrorism, thereby, becoming an important marker in New Delhi’s attempts to burnish its credentials as an emerging security provider to the wider Asian region.

Countering Terror in Philippines For a long time, India has been trying to convince the world that it remains one of the worst victims of terrorism. But its focus has largely been on Pakistan’s use of terrorism as an instrument of state policy. And where India

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Raksha Mantri Smt Nirmala Sitharaman receiving the Defence Minister of Singapore Dr. Ng Eng Hen at South Block in New Delhi

viewed Pakistan as the epicentre of terrorism, the world remained reluctant to put adequate pressure on a nation that was seen as a close ally in its ‘war against terrorism’. However, under the Narendra Modi government, India has taken a tough stand on Pakistan’s support for terrorism

to shoulder with other victims of terror, even when the source of the problem is different.

The Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte declared in November 2017 that Marawi had been liberated from ISIS-affiliated militants following a five-month

India cannot easily match China’s growing economic profile but it has other means to build partnerships by underscoring its concerns at various international fora. In this context, India’s support to Manila shows a new-found sense of urgency in standing shoulder

January 2018 Defence AND security alert

standoff. The siege of Marawi, about 800 km south of the capital Manila, began in May when the Philippine security forces launched an offensive to

capture Isnilon Hapilon, leader of the IS-affiliated Abu Sayyaf group. Duterte took a hard line, vowing to “crush” the militants and declaring martial law over the entire southern Philippines, leading to killing of more than 800 militants and 162 government security forces. It is not readily evident if this will lead to an end of militancy but the IS has suffered a serious setback in the region.

India has expressed its concerns at the situation and used this crisis to enhance its anti-terror and deradicalisation partnership with the Philippines. India is also conducting cyber security training for the Philippine security forces, focusing on deradicalisation. And with this financial aid, India has emerged as the largest donor in efforts to contain the crisis.

Building Partnerships China has provided 15 million pesos (approximately $3,00,000) in aid compared to India’s 25 million pesos ($5,00,000). India’s engagement with the Philippines is also a key to underscoring its growing role in Southeast Asia where China’s rise has already created serious challenges for the wider region. The regional states are looking at external balancers at a time when America’s commitment to regional security has come under a scanner under the Donald Trump Administration.

The regional security architecture is under strain there as China’s divide-and-rule policy has made it difficult for regional States to put up a united front. Many States have suggested that India needs to play a larger role. As India and

the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) celebrate 25 years of their partnership this year, it is a politically opportune moment to upgrade India’s regional profile.

The Philippines has also been trying to recalibrate its ties with China, under stress because of a suit brought by Manila to the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, challenging Beijing’s claim to almost all of the South China Sea. Though Manila won the case last year, it has not been able to push Beijing to moderate

January 2018

its stance on the maritime dispute.

Meanwhile, Duterte visited China last year and signed deals worth $24 billion in infrastructure investment and loan pledges. India cannot easily match China’s growing economic profile but it has other means to build partnerships with a very important region in its foreign policy matrix.

New Delhi’s strong ties with Singapore and its outreach to Manila are steps in that direction.

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internal security threats Indian Army

Gen Bipin Rawat In The Hot Seat

Gen Rawat has made known his views on the use of pellet guns against civilians interfering with cordon-and-search operations. Given that the sight of sightless children could encourage someone like the student of Aligarh Muslim University to join the militants is counter-productive and undermines the counter-insurgency rationale.

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January 2018 Defence AND security alert

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n a “no war, no peace” situation, Chief of Army Staff Gen Bipin Rawat has proved that he is the man for the moment. Be it in dealing with China along the Line of Actual Control in the northern Himalayas or Pakistan’s adventurism along the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir and the International Border further South and a Sino-Pak-inspired insurgency in Kashmir; the chief of the Indian Army has kept these dangers at bay and the nation secure.

For several years now, defence analysts have pointed to the emergence of a “two-and-a-half front” scenario on the subcontinent (simultaneous confrontation with China and Pakistan and an exacerbation of internal security threats). Gen Rawat has shown that these can be dealt with effectively and with great aplomb.

He was instrumental in reining in the Chinese, accustomed to unhindered “salami slicing” of Indian territory in the Himalayas, by engineering the stand-off at

Doklam on the Sino-Bhutan border and the more recent one at Tuting in Arunachal Pradesh.

Pakistani Desperation With surgical strikes and hot pursuit operations along the Line of Control and a systematic decapitation of its jihadi network inside Kashmir, he has forced the infamous Pakistan Army Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to change tactics from hot weather to desperate cold weather (height of winter) infiltration attempts and introduction of new weapons and munitions. With effective counter-fire, he has made it a policy to destroy Pakistani bunkers that are used to thrust jihadi terrorists into Kashmir and creating uncertainty in the mind of the enemy about what he would do next.

Cecil Victor The writer has covered all the wars with Pakistan as War Correspondent and reported from the conflict zones in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia in South East Asia as well as from Afghanistan.

He is the author of “India: The Security Dilemma”.

He has, himself, learned a lesson or two. Like the need to have sufficient boots on the ground vis-à-vis China to be able to detect and negate the spate of Chinese intrusions across the

The General needs to encourage the Indian industry to produce a tool that will be dissuasive and effective in the most volatile of situations January 2018

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internal security threats Indian Army

Line of Actual Control as soon as they occur. Heavy weapons (like the tanks in central sector opposite Uttarakhand backed by air cover) have been deployed just in case the Chinese get carried away by their own adventurism.

Doklam has shown that the People’s Liberation Army and the undisputed/all-powerful leader Xi Jinping can be made to stop and rethink. This episode underscores the need to quickly complete the raising of the new Mountain Division with its full complement of weaponry to deal with a perfidious China.

deter conventional threats all along its huge periphery of land and maritime boundaries even while making a nuclear riposte, unthinkable for any potential

If he can take the Kashmir thorn out of Indian flesh, he will qualify for the exalted position of Field Marshal.

Military Modernisation Yet, he confronts issues that he cannot resolve in single tenure. Priority is, being able to acquire and deploy the modern equipment, required to enable the second largest army in the world (after China) to credibly

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adventurist. In this, he must realise that India must quickly shed the dubious distinction of being the largest importer of foreign weapons. The silver lining is that the Indian Armed Forces

January 2018 Defence AND security alert

have, hitherto, managed to “use whatever is available” to a very good effect. In the pipeline are a new family of multi-calibre small arms for the infantry to replace the INSAS rifles and the induction of as many as 4,000 artillery pieces to neutralise the inertia in acquisition of this essential battlefield weapon caused by the Bofors scandal of the 1980s.

Homemade versions are beginning to roll out of Indian gun factories.

Sufficient Stockpiles Nonetheless, it does not take an Einstein to know that expending ammunition to pluck out Pakistani bunkers on a nearly daily basis will require an adequate reserve stockpile, in case, matters escalate into a full blown confrontation. The Kargil experience has taught us that we must be able to produce within the country enough ammunition

for every kind of weapon in the Indian armoury to be able to sustain a daily barrage up to more than a month. [In Kargil, we used up 2.5 lakh tonnes of metal (bombs, rockets and shells) to dislodge the Pakistani intruders over a period of two months].

If there is something “hollow” (as one of his predecessors has claimed) in the Order of Battle of the Indian Army, it is his responsibility to ensure that it is stamped out and obliterated.

within the cadres as well as inter se with other Central Government institutions like the IAS. The implementation of the One Rank One Pension scheme has itself been controversial.

Gen Rawat has his work cut out in negotiating this minefield. The fact that the Indian Army has been in a near constant state of alert and operations ever since independence, entitles it to certain special privileges in pay and perks.

For the manpower which Kargil has shown is one of the best fighting forces in the world, the implementation of the Seventh Pay Commission recommendations as whetted

by Army HQ is in the process of being initiated. The Armed Forces have had serious objections to what is described as “anomalies”

Given the situation in Jammu and Kashmir, the Army is willy-nilly dragged into joint operations with the local police, the Central Reserve Police Force and the Rashtriya Rifles against terrorists.

Counter-insurgency tends to take a toll—both physical and psychological.

Campaigns against the Armed

The world’s second largest standing Army has been pressing for fast-tracking the procurement of various weapons systems considering the evolving security threats including along India’s borders with Pakistan and China

January 2018

Forces Special Powers Act which affords protection to personnel for actions in disturbed areas have been persistent. It is a Gordian Knot that is difficult to cut.

Gen Rawat has made known his views on the use of pellet guns against civilians interfering with cordon-and-search operations.

Given that the sight of sightless children could encourage someone like the student of Aligarh Muslim University to join the militants is counter-productive and undermines the counterinsurgency rationale. The General needs to encourage the Indian industry to produce a tool that will be dissuasive and effective in the most volatile of situations.

Geo-strategy Looking at the larger geostrategic picture, Kashmir remains central to Indian security and territorial integrity. Gen Rawat, given the tactical acumen, has already displayed an acuity in strategic thought as indicated in his curriculum vitae, is eminently suited to find an option to remove the Kashmir thorn from Indian flesh.

His options are (1) Retrieving PoK; (2) Making it difficult for China and Pakistan to use PoK to further their commercial and strategic interests. One may not always like what he says and how he says it but if he can do this he can be sure that the people of India will rise in unison to nominate him to the exalted position of Field Marshal in the august company of Field Marshal Sam Manekshaw of the Bangladesh fame.

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military cuisine DFRL ROLE

Nutrition

On The Battlefield The development of packed rations to service forces is very critical. Because, protecting food items from physical and chemical deterioration in storage, transport and handling, the packaging of any operational ration used during logistic period.

Defence Food Research Laboratory (DFRL), Mysore, is designing and developing state-of-the-art food processing technologies, systems, devices and products for varied operational conditions to ensure the nutritional quality, adequacy, and safety of food products intended for use by Defence Forces.

F

ood and nutritional requirement of military and paramilitary services should be determined in conjunction with operational environments.

Indian Armed forces operate under diverse and tough situations, wherein human endurance and survival is extremely challenging. Feeding our troops operating under such diverse combat theatres of operations, weapon platforms and difficult terrains, etc. is very demanding.

Therefore, while formulating the rations in the form of meals-ready-to-eat (MRE), the variable calorie output essential in a multi-entree system to suit various operational requirements, should be kept in mind.

Theatre Specific Foods Modern warfare involves positioning and placing of crews and soldiers for prolonged time durations in weapon platforms such as tanks/BMP platforms,

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Specialised Labs for specific food products

fighter aircrafts and submarines, and at high altitude, desert and jungle areas.

Weapon platform specificity has become more important such as longhaul fighter aircrafts, main battle tank and naval vessels.

The crews operating in tanks and mechanised units undergo tremendous stress due to cranked operational space, excessive

January 2018 Defence AND security alert

heat, drudgery associated with mechanical and electronic gadgetry and psychological stress induced by prolonged operations on challenging weapon platforms. Thus, specific food baskets need to be provisioned with isotonic beverages and food rich in carbohydrates and low in fat to avoid dehydration. Marine commando operations, para-

operations, patrol/ambush duties also add to the list in terms of combat theatres.

Submarine-specific operational conditions include confined space, aloofness in submerged conditions, inability to store higher quantities of perishable and processed foods. The other concerns include accumulation of fumes from the kitchen, acoustic neutralisation during any foodbased operation to avoid enemy detection and wastage disposal, etc. In such cases, operational requirements need to consider ambient temperatures, the ventilation levels, inability of the sailors to perform formal cooking, shortage of time for the crew in arranging their food for quick consumption without impeding the combat readiness. The MREs for submariners need to have packaging and waste content as per the MARPOL (marine pollution) maritime conventions.

Radiation Ambience During the operations of asymmetric attacks, food/ drinks delivery system should be compatible with protective gears worn by the personnel. There is also a need to develop radioprotective foods for use by persons

handling radiation equipment or working in radiation-prone areas, nuclear submarines, cosmonauts, pilots, etc. Energydense packaged snack foods will have high concentration of calories per bite. These foods are necessitated for those who are overstressed, sleep-deprived and heavy-worked. The intake boosts the energy level without leading to sugar crash. Such type of foods could be in the form of compressed ration or drinks and the quick energy release can be facilitated by the use of metabolic intermediates. These foods are loaded with digestible carbohydrates which are also packed with potassium and aids in maintaining nerve and muscle function.

While offering operational MRE for Low Intensity Conflicts (LIC), troops’ requirements in terms of food logistics and adverse effects caused by the extreme environments on human physiology and psychological aspects should be considered.

The LIC situations pose additional problems as it is a continuous operation without break for food consumption.

Moreover, ‘signatures’ of consumption of food in terms of flavours, odour, cooking process and left-over packaging, should be reduced.

Plastic cutlery should best be avoided or minimised. These foods need to lessen muscle stiffness and fatigue as such by appropriate functional principles.

MRE Ration For Armed Forces The

development

of

packed

January 2018

Dr Rakesh Kumar Sharma The writer is Scientist ‘G’ and ​ Director, Defence Food Research Laboratory, Siddartha Nagar, Mysore

Our future endeavour is to develop specific food products to enable conduct of surgical, camouflaged and short intense limited operations

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military cuisine DFRL ROLE

duties assigned to them. They require specialised rations with adequate calories that are easy to carry and consume without compromising the quality, safety and the palatability.

DFRL, Mysore, developed a ration based on Indian cuisine like mutton, chicken and a vegetarian ration for non-meat eaters similar to the US Navy.

DFRL-Civil Connect

The Defence Food Research Laboratory (DFRL) in Mysuru is preparing and distributing food packets for distribution in the flood-hit areas of Tamil Nadu

rations to service forces is very critical. Because protecting food items from physical and chemical deterioration in storage, transport and handling, the packaging of any operational ration used during logistic period, should meet operational limitations on meals patterns, weight and volume with availability of materials. Defence Food Research Laboratory (DFRL), Mysore, is designing and developing state-of-the-art food processing technologies, systems, devices and products for varied operational conditions to ensure the nutritional quality, adequacy and safety of food products intended for use by Defence Forces.

DFRL has developed various rations such as one man combo pack ration, modified (mini) combo pack ration, MRE ration, MBT ration, submarine ration and survival ration for Personal Survival packs. Among these rations, MRE rations have been

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specially developed to meet the operational needs for the Army and Navy. The ration does not require any cooking since the contents are thermally processed using retort pouch processing technology to ensure the safety.

This ration is specially designed to meet the Indian palate and is made of foods with which Indian soldiers are familiar. The Indian

The development of pack rations to service forces is very critical MRE can be well equated with well-known international rations like MRE of USA and GP-24 of UK in nutritional quality and hygiene standards.

Marine Commandos of the Indian Navy are expected to land in unknown and hostile territories to carry out specific

January 2018 Defence AND security alert

DFRL is not a vendor, production agency or a consultant, but have focussed on developing energydense, light-weight compact food with long shelf-life for difficult terrains and theatres, which are otherwise not commercially much viable. DFRL concentrate on sustainable business model, where palatability and shelf-life are equally important. Spin-off of these technologies developed for Services technologies have been transferred to more than 540 industries for the benefit of civilian population also.

DFRL is formulating different terrain- platform- and weaponspecific MREs with compartmentalisation (i.e breakfast, lunch and dinner separately) to meet the operational logistic requirements.

The proposed menus will be evaluated along with chemical-based modified self-heating system at high altitude, jungle, on board ships and submarines, etc. Our future endeavour is to develop specific food products to enable conduct of surgical, camouflaged and short intense limited operations.

dialogue with ULFA

SOVEREIGNTY OF ASSAM

Need for

Circumspection The analogy that can be proffered at this juncture is to stress on the point as to whether “peaceful nights would prevail even if one tiger out of the nine caged is on the prowl?”

F

ormal dialogue with ULFA (Pro-Talk)— which began in 2011, but stalled, has reportedly gotten underway recently.

By all accounts the talks ended on a positive note with the organisation expressing its satisfaction about the initiatives which New Delhi has taken. According to a press statement by the organisation, the “discussion is (presently) at a crucial stage and ULFA (ProTalk) expects a Memorandum of Settlement to be signed ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections”.

Jaideep Saikia Jaideep Saikia is a top security expert on the North East and author of several bestselling books on security and strategy

The issues will be discussed under the following broad groupings: A. Grounds for ULFA’s struggle and their genuineness.

B. Status report on missing ULFA leaders and cadres.

C. Constitutional and Political arrangements and Reforms, including protection of the identity and material resources of the local indigenous population of Assam.

In any event, the optimism that has characterised the recent discussions with ULFA (Pro-Talk) notwithstanding, the author wishes to dispassionately examine the dialogue process and the basis on which a resolution can be availed.

D. Financial and Economic Arrangements, including settlement of all royalties on mines/minerals including oil on a retrospective compensatory basis and rights of independent use for a sustainable economic development in future.

The framework of charter for negotiations according to ULFA (Pro-Talk) and which was presented to the government is worded in the following manner:

E. Illegal migration — its effect/impact and required remedies including sealing of international borders, river patrolling, development of

January 2018

A small team, albeit one which could well be from a sister organisation such as PLA (Manipur), could engineer such an act.

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dialogue with ULFA SOVEREIGNTY OF ASSAM

a native force to man the borders.

F. Ethnic issues - problems and constitutional restructuring including settlement of border disputes and removal of encroachment.

G. Education and Healthreforms required to preserve the identity of the people of Assam and benefits thereafter.

H. Agricultural Development.

and

Rural

I. Land and Natural resources - including right of natives to the land, flood control and management.

J. Industrial Growth Development of infrastructure, removal of transport bottleneck, development of entrepreneurial skill and efficiency in labour, availability of credit, infusion of capital leading to industrial take-off and right to engage in specific relationship with foreign countries for promotion of mutual trade, commerce and cultural relationship.

K. Restoration, protection, preservation and spread of indigenous culture of Assam in all its variety.

L. Amnesty, re-integration and rehabilitation of ULFA members and affected people.

On the face of it, the demands are not unreasonable. Indeed, most well-meaning citizens of India

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A delegation of the pro-talks ULFA leaders including Arabinda Rajkhowa (second from the left) coming out after a meeting with then Union home minister P. Chidambaram at North Block in New Delhi. Credit: PTI

and the meritocracy that propels the nation have already shown sympathy to some of the demands such as prevention of illegal migration from Bangladesh and correct redressal to the problem of floods in Assam. Some demands such as constitutional reforms, though the exact nature of which has not been spelt out, may not be acceptable to New Delhi. But negotiations always proceed from the intractable to the acceptable by application of compromise.

Moreover, an aspect that must be noted is that the charter of demands has not used the phrase “full autonomy,” emphasising

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instead that the “identity and material resources of the local indigenous population of Assam” must be protected.

At any rate, few questions which arise at this juncture are the following: a) How far is New Delhi prepared to go in its accommodative posture vis-a-vis the demands that ULFA (Pro-Talk) has made? A mature democracy that has the interest of the periphery uppermost in its minds should not shy away from grant of some rights to backward states, especially by way of rights

over natural resources and land, prevention of illegal migration and proper management of floods. b) But, it is also true that dialogue with insurgency, especially of the fractured kind that characterises the ULFA phenomenon, must be engaged with a degree of circumspection. To that end, certain observers are questioning whether in its bid to hold dialogue with ULFA, the rule of law has not been circumvented. After all, it is a well-known fact that the entire leadership of the pro-talk faction of ULFA are ones that were handed over to India after apprehension by Bangladesh authorities. In other words, none of them came over ground on their own free will. It is

also being questioned whether the cadres of the pro-talk faction had, during the period in which they were donning revolutionary attire, ever evinced an interest for an unconditional dialogue with New Delhi. Therefore, the question that is being asked is whether there has been a quid-pro-quo that is less than righteous! Where is the guarantee that the cadres did not consent to the demands of the “managers” in order to circumvent incarceration and due process of the Indian legal system? Should such cadres be granted reprieve for the various acts of violence (including 15 August 2004, Dhemaji) that they had committed when they were underground? The ability of the

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magnanimity of the Indian system to incorporate insurgencies is not in any doubt. But questions that are being raised in informed and aggrieved circles, the latter constituting victims of wanton insurgent violence in Assam, are whether high-mindedness of the nation is circuiting fair-play and imperatives of national security.

In this context, the question of the pro-talk ULFA continuing to wield arms has also been raised. The government must immediately disarm the cadres.

The occasional atmosphere of aggression that grips Assam, of late hostility, has pertained to “Hindu Bangladeshis” with senior ULFA (Pro-Talk) leaders making statements pertaining to a “call to arms”, is because of the profusion of illegal arms that are circulating in their midst and inside the state.

A curious allowance to a group that has come “over ground” abjuring violence, albeit having been handed over by Bangladesh to India without the former’s consent. After all, as aforesaid, Arabinda Rajkhowa and others did not return to Assam and a dialogue process on their own accord! c) There have been myriad attempts to engage ULFA in a dialogue in the past. But the process has never quite reached a station that it is presently positioned in. Indeed, for the first time ever a solution seems to be within arm’s reach, and one that could be acceptable to the protalk faction of the organisation.

But an important question that is also being raised is whether there is merit in talking to a group that holds the guns, or with one that

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Photo Cortesy: AFP

dialogue with ULFA SOVEREIGNTY OF ASSAM

ULFA leader Anup Kumar Chetia (second from right) along with his two accomplices Babul Sharma (L) and Luxmi Prashad (C)

has no guns, albeit in a manner that they are presently not being wielded in warlike fashion! And indeed, as aforesaid, ones that have been coerced into taking the path of dialogue. The intransigence of ULFA Chief of Staff, Paresh Barua, who continues to hold onto the condition that sovereignty of Assam must be discussed is not only well-known but has been demonstrated. Baruah and his faction are completely in the hands of the Chinese Ministry of State Security (MSS) and in recent times, have emerged as a spokesperson for Beijing with statements against India’s position regarding Dalai Lama and Tibet.

Although the level of violence that has been threatened by his faction has yet not been of the expected dimension, the fact remains that he and his 55 odd new recruits are billeted in Myanmar’s Taga and thereabouts.

Also, the Chinese chaperoning of the umbrella organisation, the United Nation Front of Southeast Asia (UNLFWSEA) indicates that there would be outsourcing of antiAssam operations to groups even

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A mature democracy that has the interest of the periphery uppermost in its minds should not shy away from grant of some rights to backward states. from the CorCom (Coordination Commitee), a conglomeration of Manipuri group that have lent moral support to UNLFWSEA. Indeed, sporadic attacks in Upper Assam have already experienced the Manipuri insurgent hand, heralding thereby an altogether different style of anti-India belligerence. d) Dialogue with the pro-talk

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faction of ULFA has begun.

But analysis has it that Paresh Baruah, in order to continue to retain legitimacy, would try his utmost to disrupt the talks.

He would do this by unleashing violence inside Assam, or even by targeting the pro-talk ULFA faction. In any event, it must be understood that it is Paresh Baruah who has the advantages by way of (a) as aforesaid, he has the arsenal to create violence, (b) he is still recruiting cadres, and notwithstanding the naysayers in Assam’s security establishment who are wont to rubbish the number of cadres he has, it is elementary knowledge that placement of a Programmable Time Delay Device in a strategic location does not need an entire platoon of saboteurs. A small team, albeit one which could well be from a sister organisation such as PLA (Manipur), could engineer such an act. One cadre armed with a pre-programmed explosive device, a spotter and back-up cadre are all that are required to re-create a Dhemaji, or for that matter another 30 October 2008 when cars laden with high-grade explosives were driven to different parts of Assam with devastating effect. Terrorism is the war of the flea: smaller the team, the more successful the operation. e) The moot point of the moment, therefore, is the manner in which New Delhi analyses the problem. Does it go ahead with the proposed dialogue with the pro-talk faction of ULFA? Or does it wait a time when the anti-talk faction also falls in line? New Delhi, in its wisdom, must realise

In the meeting, the ULFA pro-talk faction demanded from Government of India, a status report of those ULFA leaders and members who went missing in 2004 ‘Operation All Clear’ in Bhutan

that it is more important to talk to people that has the ability to hold the state to ransom by way of both guns and anti-India support like MSS and ISI, than with a group that has been quietened by apprehension and possible coup-de-grace. f) New Delhi, in the nation’s security interest, must also realise that talks with any insurgent group can be held only within the ambit of the constitution and after such groups abjure violence.

Dialogue with ULFA must be a comprehensive affair. Dialogue in the absence of Paresh Barua, who continues to maintain an anti-talk stance, and, for all practical purpose, possesses the guns, is not going to be allinclusive. The analogy that can be proffered at this juncture is to stress on the point as to whether “peaceful nights would prevail even if one tiger out of the nine caged is on the prowl?” g) The point about Paresh Baruah is particularly important

since he has not only demonstrated that he possesses anti-India arsenal, but, because Chinese or Pakistani interests are continuing to chaperon him, and may even prevent him from returning to India even if he wishes to. It is also important to profile the enigmatic ULFA chiefof-staff. At this time he is purchasing arms from the “Grey Markets” that abound Yunnan and the border across in Myanmar, recruiting new cadres and are training them in Kachin.

Profiling Barua leads to the summation that he, unlike some of his other colleagues in ULFA, does not perceive a role for himself in a peaceful settlement. He takes pride on his “military” innards, considers himself to be a modern day Lachit Barphukan (the Ahom general who successfully foughtoff the Mughal invaders in the medieval age) and would, if the need arise, go down fighting.

Baruah penned a particularly interesting obituary in an Assamese daily (Asomiya Pratidin) of Vellupilai Prabhakaran, after

January 2018

the LTTE leader met his end in the hands of the Sri Lankan Army. He hailed him as a fearless commander and wrote that his “martyrdom” would be an inspiration for him and his cadres in ULFA. Reports seem to be of the opinion that Paresh Baruah is shuttling between China’s Yunnan provinces, Myanmar’s Taga, Kuala Lampur with the newly constituted mobile HQ of ULFA. The organisation’s battalions, having been, disbanded a few years ago. His stance, vis-a-vis what he terms as Indo-Asom conflict, could have changed if he feels that his newest stance would turn the tables on ULFA cadres such as Arabinda Rajkhowa and Raju Baruah against whom his animosity is now almost a fact. Indian security managers must glean Paresh Baruah’s real intentions and work out a methodology that must factor his faction, with or without him, if possible, into the peace process. Only then would dialogue with ULFA be a comprehensive affair.

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Indo-Afghan relation HISTORICAL CONTINUUM

Afghan Women Officers undergoing training in India

Indian Army

Training Afghan Women On completion of training, they are expected to take multifarious tasks including administrative, logistics, human resources, intelligence and communications. Some will also operate in the frontline assisting Special Forces in conducting cordon and search operations or CASO. Their role will be invaluable in terms of providing a degree of security to local women, ensure their rights are protected.

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Afghan plunged to the depths of inequality during the rule of the Taliban from 1996 to 2001.

Women were restricted to the home and hearth and the burqa was compulsory in a public appearance and also requiring the accompaniment of a male relative.

Fortunately, this period did not last long, even though Afghan society largely remains conservative.

Afghanistan’s post-2001 Constitution provides for equality of the sexes and has many measures for positive discrimination for women including reservation in the Parliament.

Brig Rahul K Bhonsle (retd) The writer is Director Security Risks Asia, an Asian risk and knowledge management consultancy based in New Delhi and specialises in risk management and future warfare.

Groundwork For Women’s Empowerment

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he role of women in a society is determined by the level of empowerment, true signs of which, are to share the same challenges and tasks as their male counterparts.

Afghan women were in the forefront of society in the early 1970s. They were prominent members of the Afghan civil society and the burqa or veil was not evident in Kabul, though it prevailed in rural pockets of the country.

From being one of the most progressive societies for women,

The security forces – Afghan National Army and Police – have also been thrown open for entry by women with the stated objective of approximately 5,000 women in each. In a force of 35,000 plus, 10,000 may be a small number, however, this is a notable uptick from confinement to the home and a secondary status in society.

Given the low capacity for training of women in the armed forces and police in the country, Afghanistan is looking for external assistance. Over the last few decades, India has been in the forefront of providing assistance to Afghanistan. It has assumed the role of a primary development partner since 2001 when the Taliban was evicted from the country in the United States-led Operation Enduring

January 2018

Beyond the varied type of training provided to include physical, weapons, cyber security, leadership and characterbuilding, a key spin-off is empowerment of the Afghan women

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Indo-Afghan relation HISTORICAL CONTINUUM

Afghan army cadets take part in a firing excercise during a training programme

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Freedom and is also providing extensive security assistance in the training of Afghan National Army and Police.

determined, in the training, equipping and capacity-building programmes for Afghan National Security Forces”.

India’s engagement with Afghanistan has been formalised under the, “Agreement on Strategic Partnership between the Republic of India and the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan,” signed on October 04, 2011. Clause 5 of the Political and Security Cooperation states, “India agrees to assist, as mutually

Putting the Agreement into effect, India has been training roughly 1,000 ANA (Afghan National Army) and ANP (Afghan National Police) personnel in the country in various training establishments.

Approximately, 30-50 officers are passing out of the Indian Military Academy in Dehradun, India’s premier training establishment for officer cadets.

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India has provided three Mi-35 attack helicopters and four light Cheetah/Chetak helicopters to Afghanistan and is providing maintenance and medical support to the forces. Keeping in view the sensitivities in the region, India has scrupulously avoided commitment of ground troops in Afghanistan. Thus, the main assistance provided is of training and capacity-building with majority of programmes being conducted in India. After training hundreds of Afghan officers and men, India is now

Army on River Adyar adjoining the Chennai International and Domestic Airport provides an ideal opportunity for training of cadet officers. With the capacity to train over 1,000 officers and more at any given time, OTA, Chennai, provides an ideal backdrop for training of Afghan Army women officer cadets.

Education Criteria turning to training the women in the Afghan security forces.

First Batch The first batch of 20 women officers of the Afghan National Army are now undergoing training in the Officers’ Training Academy (OTA) in Chennai, the capital of Tamil Nadu, a premier State in southern India.

OTA, Chennai, is the Indian Army’s premier institute for training men and women for Short Service Commission into Indian Army. The sprawling estate of 650 acres of the Indian

A special 20-day training module has been created for the Afghan Army women officers, many of them fluent in English and Hindi.

They are most fluent in Dari and Pashto—the official languages of Afghanistan. Literacy is an important factor in imbibing training. Since 1979, Afghanistan had been set-back by many decades during the five years of Taliban rule and 40 years of incessant Civil War. As per the UNESCO, Afghanistan has one of the lowest literacy rates in the world, currently estimated at about 31 per cent of the adult population (over 15 years of age).

January 2018

Many face the threat of elimination as when on leave they are soft targets for the Taliban. In the barracks in Kabul or Kandahar, however, they have the freedom to do their jobs fearlessly

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Indo-Afghan relation HISTORICAL CONTINUUM

Afghan Women army cadets take part in practical training programme at the Officers Training Academy, Chennai

Female literacy levels are even worse being an average 17 per cent. Even in capital Kabul, only 34.7 per cent women are literate while in the provinces as Helmand and Zabul in the south which are under strong Taliban influence and are seen as the most conservative, it is 1.6 per cent. The officer cadets are, thus, specially selected representing one of the most educated and aware segment of the society. They belong to a wide segment of Afghan provinces and ethnicity and are also concerned about their status in a conservative society.

or rushing reinforcements to beleaguered garrisons.

On completion of training, they are expected to take

Boots On The Ground Training is carried out in the drill square, the firing ranges as well as simulation rooms where they find themselves rehearsing real-life situations such as beating a Taliban ambush

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January 2018 Defence AND security alert

multifarious tasks including administrative, logistics, human resources, intelligence and communications.

Some will also operate in the frontline assisting Special Forces in conducting cordon and search operations or CASO. Their role will be invaluable in terms of providing a degree of security to local women, ensure their rights are protected and will also be used for spot interrogation. Some of them are being trained as, “trainer of trainers,” and will, thus, impart their female colleagues with skills that were learnt in Chennai.

New Social Fabric Beyond the varied type of training provided to include physical, weapons, cyber security, leadership and character-building, a key spin-off is empowerment of the Afghan women. Exposed to India’s vibrant equitable social norms, they will carry back these memories hoping to one day achieve the level of emancipation and freedom enjoyed by women in India. Bollywood remains an attractive draw with almost all women having their own favourites ranging from Amitabh Bachchan outlining the significance of India’s softpower. Moreover, they are more comfortable working in almost similar social settings as their own country creating a conducive environment for training.

Dangers They Confront Many of them will also become the principal bread-winners in the family of many siblings. For some, continuing their job in the Armed Forces will invite trouble at home when they reach their villages on leave; the old male-dominated order looks down upon their achievements and seeks to curtail

A soldier puts on her body armour as she prepares to head out on patrol in the Upper Gereshk valley of Helmand Province.

their freedom. Some may even be forced to leave due to family or community pressure. Many even face the threat of elimination as when on leave they are soft targets for the Taliban. In the barracks in Kabul or Kandahar, however, they have the freedom to do their jobs fearlessly.

It is heartening to note that as they complete their training period, India and Indians are

January 2018

considered by the Afghan women officers, just as many of the male counterparts, ideal friends and partners. Camaraderie built in the drills square will lead to fond memories and friendships with their Indian counterparts.

Hopefully, the Indian experience will lead them to being not only good officers but also face the travails of survival in the harsh physical and social environment of their country.

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Trump’s Jerusalem gambit

STIRRING THE QUAGMIRE

No Peaceful Co-existence

President Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel is going to be a major disaster in the history of today’s West Asia which has anyhow attained a semblance of peace as most stakeholders in recent years have been veering around two-State solution as being the best over the decades’ old thorniest and unresolved issue in West Asia.

Fuel in Fire While President Trump may pat himself on the back for fulfilling the outstanding concern of the Jews by recognising the disputed

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Jerusalem as Israel’s capital— the most likely repercussion of this highly contentious issue may not prove virtuous for peace and security of West Asia in particular

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and the world in general. As the decision will further complicate the already tense and volatile issue of the status of Jerusalem – abode to sites holy to the

Dr Sudhanshu Tripathi The writer is a professor of political science at the UP Rajarshi Tandon Open University Allahabad (UP).

UK Prime Minister Theresa said the British government disagreed with US President Donald Trump’s decision to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, saying it was “unhelpful” for peace efforts

Jews, Christians and Muslim religions alike – it will hamper the not so evident but supposedly evolving two-State solution that envisaged independent Israeli and Palestinian States living side by side.

Though the final status of Jerusalem was to be worked out through the parties with east Jerusalem – which Israel occupied after the 1967 War – being projected as the possible capital of a future Palestine but the likely situation of this Presidential decree may again threaten to thrust West Asian region into a quagmire of fresh uncertainty and restlessness. It will, beyond doubt, add to the already burning woes of Palestinians because the recognition granted by the US identifies the Israeli claims over Jerusalem in toto without granting even a semblance of benefit to the Palestinians who are also the legitimate claimants of their territorial share in Jerusalem.

This act has now created a flutter in the world that further cast doubt on the future of the IsraeliPalestinian peace process and a final settlement of this barbed conflict that continues to spark instability across the Arab world and sends cold shivers through the spines of peace-loving humanity all over the globe.

Disagreement within NATO Not only the aggrieved stakeholder to this dispute like Palestinians and their supporters in the Arab world, but also the hardcore allies to the US, including the NATO partners, have clearly expressed their disagreement over the American decision. Prime Minister of United Kingdom Theresa May announced the disagreement of her government with this decision as it would be ‘unhelpful in terms of prospects for peace in the region’. She even rejected the idea to move the British Embassy to Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

January 2018

The US has been isolated in the recently held United Nations Security Council meeting called upon to discuss the emergent crisis

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Trump’s Jerusalem gambit

STIRRING THE QUAGMIRE

Journalists and people protest against US President Donald Trump’s decision of recognizing Jerusalem as Israeli Capital

President Emmanuel Marcos of France has termed this decision as “regrettable” and has rejected it as being “unilateral”. Also, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey has condemned the US’ move as it was ‘throwing the region into a ring of fire’. He very sincerely expressed his anguish by asking the leader of US: ‘What do you want to do Mr Trump?

What kind of an approach is this? Political leaders exist not to create struggles but to make peace’. Following the same line of interpretation, King Salman of Saudi Arabia pointed out that recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel ‘would constitute a flagrant provocation of Muslims all over the world’. Carrying forward the spirit, the Saudi Royal Court issued its statement: ‘The US’ move represents a significant decline in efforts to push a peace process and is a violation of the historically neutral American position on Jerusalem’.

Even the hardcore allies to the US, including the NATO partners, have clearly expressed their disagreement

EU has a clear and united position. We believe the only realistic solution to the conflict between Israel and Palestine is based on two States and with Jerusalem on two States as the capital of both.” Not so friendly with President Trump, China and Russia also expressed their concerns that the move could lead to an escalation of tensions in the region.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said that the decision is tantamount to the US ‘abdicating its role as a mediator’, while maintaining that Jerusalem is the ‘eternal capital of the State of Palestine’.

EU’s Position The European Union’s stance on this vexed move has been expressed by its Foreign Policy Chief Federica Mogherini: “The

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‘Red Line for All Muslims’: Erdogan Vows to Not Give Up on Jerusalem Issue

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New Intifada The Islamist group Hamas has urged the Palestinians to abandon peace efforts and launch a new uprising against Israel in response to US President Donald Trump’s move. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh said in a speech in Gaza, “We should call for and work on launching an intifada (Palestinian uprising) in the face of the Zionist enemy.” Consequently, the “Day of Rage” and wave of mass protests in the West Bank and Gaza have already brought large scale violent clashes between Palestinians and Israeli troops. Similarly, an aide to the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and a senior official in his Fatah party, Naser Al-Qidwa, has also urged the Palestinians to stage protests but in a peaceful manner.

Thus, President Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israeli capital is going to be a major disaster in the history of today’s West Asia which fortunately looks to have attained a semblance of peace as most stakeholders in recent years have

Hamas chief calls for new intifada over Trump’s Jerusalem move

been veering around two-State solution as being the best over the decades’ old thorniest and unresolved issue.

Trump Rollback?

Further, as the US has been isolated in the recently held United Nations Security Council meeting called upon to discuss the emergent crisis following the

January 2018

American action, President Trump must reconsider his disputed decision and come forward to restore peace and normalcy in the West Asian region in the larger interest of security and prosperity of the entire humanity not only of that region but also of the entire world.

This is possible as nothing is beyond human endeavour.

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Myanmar connect MULTILAYERED TIES

New Templates:

‘Act East’

Modi government has initiated five major policy initiatives to ensure that Myanmar should remain high in India’s regional diplomacy. These include the ‘Act East’ policy, the ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy, the ‘Buddhist circuit’ initiative, greater emphasis on regional connectivity and a mandate to strengthen border security.

India-Myanmar Bilateral Military Exercise Held in Meghalaya

I

ndia is becoming an increasingly visible, powerful and influential State within the global system. India has been centred as a contemporary emerging political

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and economic powerhouse in Asia. Prime Minister Modi has been emphasising on improving relationships with the neighbouring countries. In this continuation, New Delhi is

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building a more comprehensive and strategic relationship with eastern neighbouring country, i.e. Myanmar.

Myanmar is located at east of the Indian States - Mizoram, Manipur,

Nagaland, and Arunachal Pradesh. India shares a long land border of over 1,640 km with Myanmar as well as a maritime boundary in the Bay of Bengal.

The location of Myanmar makes it strategically important for India to help protect the country from northeast insurgents.

India-Myanmar relations have witnessed the phenomenal progress in recent years. This is reflected in the growing political, security and economic interactions between the two neighbours. Myanmar’s adoption of democracy after a long period of military dictatorship and India’s renewed push to strengthen ties with its neighbours has further created new areas of cooperation.

Defence Cooperation India and Myanmar have a long history of defence cooperation. For decades, India has been working towards securing Myanmar’s cooperation for the same. DelhiNaypyidaw has strengthened military cooperation over the years. New Delhi has made an active effort to reach out to Myanmar along various modalities of bilateral cooperation, with military-to-military cooperation occupying the frontline. The renewed military-to-military framework, which extends to both the territorial and maritime fronts, was laid down during the first India-Myanmar Joint Consultative Commission (JCC) meeting in July 2015, where India stated its commitment to support the modernisation of Myanmar’s armed forces and to build a professional and capable Myanmar Navy.

The main area of concern for the engagement between India and Myanmar is to secure the border regions; both the maritime frontier and the 1,640-kmlong land border. While several insurgent groups from India’s northeast routinely use the land border to enter western Myanmar.

India, in retaliation to insurgent group Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland, ambush of an Indian Army convoy, launched a surgical strike against terrorist camps along the IndoMyanmar international border, resulting in 158 casualties. The operation was launched after the Indian government informed the Myanmar government and received their assent. In 1995, in an operation titled “Operation Golden Bird”, India staged a limited cross-border operation with the Myanmar Army. According to sources, 38 insurgents were killed and 118 arrested. At regular intervals, India facilitates training programme to the army officials of Myanmar. Since 2012, the Myanmar Army has maintained an informal ceasefire arrangement with the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Khaplang) (NSCN-K), the insurgent group in Sagaing and the de facto leader of the rest. Thus, while NSCN-K has not signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) so far, it maintains a peaceful status quo with the Myanmar Army. The recent demise of its iconic leader, SS Khaplang, opens up space for second-generation leaders to step in, thus consolidating possibilities for further rapprochement with the Myanmar Army.

January 2018

Dr Abhishek Srivastava The writer is Assistant Professor of Political Science at University of Delhi; He has done his PhD from School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India.

The main area of concern for the engagement between India and Myanmar is to secure the border regions, both the maritime frontier and the 1,624-kmlong land border

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Myanmar connect MULTILAYERED TIES

Joint Exercises The naval forces of both countries have also made port calls on each other and conducted joint maritime patrols several times in the past three years. Additionally, the Indian Navy, during a visit by its Myanmar counterpart, extended a proposal to construct meteorological facilities for the latter.

Delhi-Naypyidaw has strengthened military cooperation with over 200 officers from Myanmar being trained in various fields, including medicine, air and navy forces, in India this year.

Myanmar’s defence equipment is often provided by India, which includes a wide range of aircraft and naval-gun boats.

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Last month, India and Myanmar, jointly organised Bilateral Military Exercise (IMBAX-2017). Indian officials stated that the exercise was the first military training exercise between India and Myanmar on United National Peacekeeping Operations (UNPKO), being held in India. The exercise was conducted at the newly established Joint Training Node in Umroi, Meghalaya.

Though the Indian Army has other joint training centres in Belgaum, Vairengte, and Bakloh, Umroi, which opened earlier this month for engagements, is the Eastern Command’s first independent and fully integrated joint training node for foreign armies. It features training facilities including a

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jungle-lane shooting range and a network-enabled computer warfare centre. The exercise, which focusses on training Myanmar forces on the conduct of such operations, features 15 officers from Myanmar Army and 16 from Indian Army. Though few specifics were provided on the nature of the drills, the focus comes as no surprise. Myanmar has previously expressed interest in gaining more expertise in this area given its participation in PKOs, which, currently, is quite limited with only a handful of military personnel participating in such operations in Liberia and Sudan. Naypyidaw involvement has often been cited as part of a broader case for

strengthening engagement with its military, known as the Tatmadaw, despite growing scrutiny including most recently with the plight of the Rohingya. Since the crisis erupted in Rakhine last month, New Delhi has been supportive of de facto leader Aung Saan Suu Kyi, condemning insurgent attacks on security forces that prompted a military crackdown against the Rohingya.

Political Bedrock During a bilateral meeting attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and State Counsellor of Myanmar Aung San Suu Kyi, both sides sought to take their bilateral ties to the next level even as both countries decided to strengthen their cooperation in defence, security and across other sectors. Since then, New Delhi has slowly ratcheted up defence sales to Myanmar. The basket of arms that India has sold to the Myanmar Army and Navy so far is inarguably massive–105mm light artillery guns, rocket launchers, rifles, radars, mortars, bailey bridges, communication gear, night-vision devices, war-gaming software, road construction equipment, naval gunboats, sonars, acoustic domes, and directing gear. In addition, India recently inked a $37.9 million deal to supply Myanmar with lightweight torpedoes.

Multilateralism Modi’s innovative policy initiatives have opened up new ways of engaging Myanmar.

As these initiatives are further exploited to expand cooperation with Myanmar, it is critical that

Armed Myanmar Soldiers Patrol in Rakhine State

New Delhi leverage its strengths.

Even as the bilateral focus should form the base of the relationship, there are a couple of factors beyond bilateralism that could be leveraged to further deepen ties. Myanmar’s geostrategic location allows it to be a member of several subregions. Both India and Myanmar are already the members of sub-regional groupings, such as the Bangladesh-ChinaIndia-Myanmar Forum for Regional Cooperation (BCIM), the Ganga-Mekong and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for MultiSectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC).

As existing groupings are strengthened, there are areas where new sub-regional partnerships could be explored for mutual benefits, such as a grouping comprising the key

January 2018

At a time when the geopolitics of the Bay of Bengal is undergoing dramatic changes, there is a need for more cooperation between India and Myanmar

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Myanmar connect MULTILAYERED TIES

Bimstec natural choice for India’s Act East, neighbourhood first policy

littorals of the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh, India and Myanmar focussing on maritime security.

During the recent visit of Myanmar’s Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services to India, the maritime security domain was highlighted for deepening the defence ties. The first JCC meeting also agreed that “maritime security cooperation in the Bay of Bengal is vital for both the countries.” At a time when the geopolitics of Bay of Bengal is undergoing dramatic changes, there is need for more cooperation between India and Myanmar, the two key littorals, to deal with the emerging security challenges as well as in taking advantage of the potential economic opportunities. In this regard, India’s role in building Myanmar’s naval capabilities and maritime security cooperation is emerging as an area of huge potential for cooperation. As

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part of the Act East policy, India could initiate maritime security cooperation in the Bay of Bengal region on the lines of the trilateral maritime security cooperation already existing with Sri Lanka and Maldives, or indeed expand this existing trilateral by inviting other key littorals like Myanmar.

Guarding Strategic Sea-lanes The Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal hold common economic and strategic interests for both countries. In addition to a land border, both countries also share a long maritime boundary in the strategically significant Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal where they face common challenges from illegal fishing and smuggling to a rising China.

Modi government has initiated five major policy initiatives to ensure that Myanmar should remain high in India’s regional diplomacy. These include the ‘Act

January 2018 Defence AND security alert

East’ policy, the ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy, the ‘Buddhist circuit’ initiative, greater emphasis on regional connectivity and a mandate to strengthen border security. In each of these initiatives, Modi is aware of the fact that Myanmar can play an important role. Cross-border insurgency challenges will remain a security concern for border management. The issue provides an opportunity for the two countries to further strengthen their defence and security cooperation.

India’s commitment to support the modernisation of Myanmar’s armed forces in terms of training and sharing experiences are high on the agenda. With growing mutual understanding and several institutional mechanisms in place, security cooperation in the form of joint and coordinated operations, in their effort to tackle cross-border insurgency could be further expanded.

AQUILA AQUILA ERADICATESMELLS SMELLSAND ANDAIR AIRPOLLUTION POLLUTIONQUICKLY, QUICKLY, ERADICATE ECONOMICALLYAND ANDSUSTAINABLY! SUSTAINABLY! ECONOMICALLY rangeofofhigh highcapacity capacitywall wallmounted mountedOzone Ozonegenerators generatorsforforallall A Arange PUBLICareas areas PUBLIC Fast, effective, safe Fast, effective, safe Ozone is the strongest available Ozone is the strongest available airair cleaner and disinfectant treating cleaner and disinfectant forfor treating odours.The The Aquila generator uses odours.

Aquila generator uses Corona discharge system, with thethe Corona discharge system, with ceramics rather than coils.These These ceramics rather than coils. produce a higher ozone produce a higher ozone concentration 3 standard sizes concentration in in thethe 3 standard sizes 3g/h, 5g/h and 10g/h.

3g/h, 5g/h and 10g/h.

You could install two more units You could install two or or more units in in parallel increasing output parallel increasing output if if required. required. radicate smells and pollution quickly, economically Allowed remotely during radicate smells and airair pollution quickly, economically Allowed to to runrun remotely during thethe and sustainably with nature’s own powerful purifier day day public areas such and sustainably with nature’s own powerful airair purifier in in public areas such as as – OZONE. dormitories, Aquila keep – OZONE. dormitories, thethe Aquila willwill keep Watership Down Technologies Aquila Series Ozone smells and odours bay.Then, Then, Watership Down Technologies Aquila Series of of Ozone smells and odours at at bay. generators, powerfully oxidise smells within minutes.If left If left when when a deep clean is needed when generators, powerfully oxidise allall smells within minutes. a deep clean is needed when overnight, it will eradicate bacteria and viruses leaving occupants have left, this onon overnight, it will eradicate bacteria and viruses leaving thethe occupants have left, this cancan bebe rooms with Pure, Clean ready next day, done easily using supplied rooms with Pure, Clean AirAir ready forfor thethe next day, allall done easily using thethe supplied automatically. remote control.Filling Filling rooms automatically. remote control. thethe rooms AQUILA Specifications: with ozone mean surfaces AQUILA Specifications: with ozone willwill mean allall surfaces willwill Ozone output: 3, 5, 3, 10 5, 10 Grams hour disinfected killing Ozone output: Grams perper hour bebe disinfected byby killing offoff allall Ozone control: Fully adjustable O output pathogens.

Ozone control: Fully adjustable O output pathogens.

Control: Automatic on flow The Aquila is ideal school Control: Automatic on flow The Aquila is ideal forfor school Cabinet: Stainless steel Cabinet: Stainless steel classrooms, offices, restaurants, classrooms, offices, restaurants, Dimensions: 3gm - 460 x 160 x 220 Dimensions: 3gm - 460 x 160 x 220 mmmm cafés, shops and general public cafés, shops and general public 5gm 460 x 160 x 220 mm 5gm - 460 x 160 x 220 mm areas. areas.

10gm 580 x 260 x 280 mm (w x d x h) 10gm - 580 x 260 x 280 mm (w x d x h) Depending volume/size a room, Depending onon volume/size of of a room, Weight: 5.4, 5.5, 8.5 KG Weight: 5.4, 5.5, 8.5 KG 10grm model look after thethe 10grm model willwill look after upup to to 1000 1000 MM . .

The Aquila used multiples The Aquila cancan bebe used in in multiples cover larger rooms. to to cover larger rooms.

EE

Exclusive Distributors in India Exclusive Distributors in India January 2018 Defence AND security alert trade queries: ceo@pawitra.com ForFor trade queries: ceo@pawitra.com

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RNI NO. DELENG/2009/31195