Defence & Security Alert July 2018 Edition

150 The First and Only ISO 9001:2015 Cer tified Defence and Securit y Magazine in India

The Only Magazine Available On The Intranets Of IAF & BSF

JULY 2018

VOLUME 9 ISSUE 10

INDIA AND SOUTH ASIA

DRIFTING APART?

editor’s note

DSA IS AS MUCH YOURS,

AS IT IS OURS!

I

ndia has aspirations of being a world player. It has belief in its ability to play an influential role in global politics. And it believes it is only a matter of time before it becomes a major factor on the world stage. That belief stems from its obvious potential as a nation, armed with human resources of first rate quality, an economy that could well be the biggest in the world given some corrective measures, and a geographical position that would be the envy of most in the world.

That potential has not been harnessed to its optimum levels precisely because of that geography.

It is a well-known fact that names, faiths, friends, etc. can be changed at the drop of a hat, but geography cannot be tampered with for the love of God. Geography is what a country is born with, made by tectonic energies over millions of years. It is as permanent as is the earth. So for India to grow to its fullest potential, it first needs to take a deep look at its geography, its location on

the map, the vast ocean that surrounds it, and the high Himalayas that have sustained it over millions of years.

An analysis of geography shows that adjoining India are the countries which together comprise South Asia, a veritable sub-continent. And it is with these countries that India has to first reconcile its geographical and political interests. Going by age old Indian wisdom, there is a saying that it is important to have good relations with neighbouring villages. No village is a stand alone entity, and it cannot be in conflict with those on its boundary. This holds true for international politics too. And even more when it comes to India and its South Asian neighbours.

In an election year, it is expected that foreign policy issues will take a back seat. Pakistan has already begun its process, in the backdrop of controversial judicial interventions. India is getting into election mode with parliamentary polls less than a year away. So to expect any breakthroughs would be

a wishful thinking. In any case, breakthroughs are not desirable in the first instance.

What is required is a modicum of exchange that is decent, humane, and diplomatic.

The sole purpose of governance anywhere in the world is to make society affluent and more secure.

Both aspirations are conjoined, and one cannot be achieved without the other. Geographical awareness suggests taking advantage of India’s place on the map. The busiest oceanic trade routes could be aped on land too, thus benefitting more than a billion people. But for that, India and Pakistan would first have to arrive at a reconciliation that is based on a reality check, what is and what is not achievable from an adversarial.

This reconciliation will pave the way for the greater good of the region, especially Pakistan which risks falling into a permanent bind with its flirtation with extremism. Geography can help all, but only those who are willing and have the vision to take advantage from it.

Manvendra Singh

July 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

1

publisher’s view

An ISO 9001:2015 Certified Magazine

Volume 9 | Issue 10 | July 2018 Chairman Shyam Sunder Publisher and CEO Pawan Agrawal President Urvashi J Agrawal Director Shishir Bhushan Editor-in-Chief Manvendra Singh Copy Editor Vandana Bhatia Palli Copcom & Ops OSD Navjeet Sood Graphic Designer Prem Singh Representative (J&K) Salil Sharma Correspondent (Europe) Dominika Cosic Production Dilshad and Dabeer IT Operations Amber Sharma Photographer Subhash Subscriptions Taniya Sharma Legal Advisor Deepak Gupta

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Editor: Manvendra Singh

2

DRAGON’S SHADOW OVER SOUTH ASIA

S

outh Asia is in a state of flux. Since the end of colonialism in the region, India has held the pre-eminent position even though it was flanked by pro-US military pact countries – the Central Treaty Organisation (CENTO) and the Southeast Asia Treaty Organisation (SEATO) – in which Pakistan played a central role ostensibly to contain Soviet communism but it carried out a sideshow of hostility against India based on the obvious illegality of the Two-Nation Theory.

Yet India enjoyed the goodwill of other nations which had newly gained independence from colonial masters or, as were the Indo-China States of Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia, still locked in a war of liberation against American occupation (after freeing themselves from French rule). Nepal, Bhutan and Myanmar shared land borders on India’s periphery and its peninsular position created natural cohesion with the newly emerging nations of Africa in the west and Southeast Asia in the east. Island nations like Sri Lanka, Maldives and Seychelles found it convenient to do business with India. But it cannot be denied that its large size and its strategic location did attract the opprobrium of “Big Brother”.

Over the past decade, geopolitics in the region has changed dramatically with Chinese expansionism undercutting the Indian sphere of influence.

Slowly, but surely, the Chinese policy of creating military bases on island territories in the Indian Ocean Region has created a steel trap around India’s throat while Sri Lanka, Maldives and Seychelles have revised their India policies accordingly. The blatant Chinese attempt to wrest Bhutan from Indian influence through the Dhoklam incursion boomeranged and China is now using other tactics to undercut Indian influence in the region.

It has used Pakistan to block Indian direct access to Afghanistan through Pakistan and has created a network of rail, road and pipelines that run diagonally across Indian territory in Jammu and Kashmir occupied illegally by both Pakistan and China. The Belt-cum-Road project or the ChinaPakistan Economic Corridor is turning out to be an exclusivist enterprise intended to keep India confined.

India’s role in Afghanistan where it has been lauded for bringing a semblance of human dignity for the Afghans is being sought to be suborned; Nepal has shown signs of breaking old bonds; Myanmar engulfed in its internal contradictions is unable to become the bridge to Southeast Asia; and Bangladesh under Sheikh Hasina has time and again shown its gratitude for India’s help in its liberation but it is being wooed by China with submarines! This looks blatantly like a Chinese scenario for a post-Hasina situation.

By and large, the situation in the entire South Asia region is changing and most of the countries are drifting away from India as China has been luring them with dubious economic deals (as in the Hambantota port project in Sri Lanka) and military hardware.

This edition has focussed on the current situation and our experts on the South Asia region have tried to figure out the options for India vis-a-vis with all the stakeholders.

I am sure you will like this edition too as always.

Happy reading!

Pawan Agrawal July 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

contents

An ISO 9001:2015 Certified Magazine AND TALKS ARE HAPPENING BRIG (DR) ANIL SHARMA (RETD)

04

NEPAL: THE CRUMBLING BUFFER COL US RATHORE (RETD)

10

QUADRILATERAL PLUS ONE: VIETNAM AS A DETERRENT DR JAGMOHAN MEHER

15

BEING CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC LT GEN KAMAL DAVAR PVSM, AVSM (RETD)

20

CONFLUENCE OF INDIA-CHINA INTERESTS PROF SANJEEV BHADAURIA COL (DR) MOHINDER PAL SINGH

25

CHAHBAHAR LINK OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES DR AMIT RANJAN

July 2018

30

CHINA’S UNDULY ENGAGEMENTS DR RAHUL MISHRA

34

THE SIDELINING OF DALAI LAMA MRITTIKA GUHA SARKAR

38

NOT ALL HUNKY-DORY JOYEETA BHATTACHARJEE

42

INDIA’S EXTENDED NEIGHBOURHOOD POLICY SANA HASHMI

46

TERRORISTS STRIKE BACK SOURABH JYOTI SHARMA

49

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

3

SCO “GOOD TERRORIST BAD TERRORIST” SYNDROME

AND TALKS ARE HAPPENING

While Rawalpindi’s influence on the Taliban and the Quetta Shura is undeniable, New Delhi needs to revisit its Afghanistan policy and position it in a longterm frame, one attuned to the changing dynamics. If that means opening official channels with the Taliban, then such an idea should be given space for deliberations. To some extent, the United States can help through goading Pakistan develop politically-informed, sequential targeting counter-terrorism strategies, focussed on anti-Pakistani groups of regional and global concern.

4

July 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

O

n April 24,

terrorism’ if it is against any

the defence

country it considers oppressive. In

ministers from

his opinion, India is an oppressive

the member-

force in Kashmir. Thus, he officially

States of the

admitted that Pakistan does

Shanghai

support terror groups operating

Cooperation Organisation (SCO),

against India and Afghanistan, as it

China, India, Kazakhstan,

has always considered Afghanistan

Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan,

as its backyard and any other power

Russia, Tajikistan, and

in that country is akin to

Uzbekistan, gathered in Beijing for

an oppressor.

the 15th SCO Defence Ministers’

Meeting. It was the first time India

SCO Connect

and Pakistan’s defence ministers

The GTBT paradox is glaringly

participated as full members. In

significant for SCO. Its range of

her remarks, Defence Minister

membership / observer countries

Sitharaman “contended that

includes Pakistan and Iran; known

arguments of political convenience

exporters of radical terrorism.

to provide an alibi for terrorist

Next are Afghanistan and India;

groups or organisations that

who are suffering terrorism for

Overall, there is not just the mainstreaming of the Taliban and dialogue processes around the terror group, but the international community is also opening dialogue processes with the organisation

BRIG (DR) ANIL SHARMA (RETD) MMS from Osmania University, PhD (System Dynamics Modeling of National Security Strategy and Force Restructuring), the writer is Fellow of Army War College. He has been Head of Office of Net Assessment and Professor and Director at University of Petroleum and Energy Studies, Dehradun. He has published number of papers on strategy and security. He is currently working with Vivekananda International Foundation.

more than four decades, along with, Russia and China, as also America (by virtue of its military presence in Afghanistan); countries, which for their perceived national interests have and continue to support various radical groups,

Structure (RATS) in 2005. The

thus providing them the so called

RATS works on information

‘good terrorist’ tag. However, due to

sharing and joint counter-terrorism

their own vulnerabilities the later

measures between member-States.

major powers are now seemingly

It has nullified 600 would-be

determined to carryout effective

attacks and extradited more than

counter-terror operations in SCO

500 terrorists. India, as a full

region and Middle East. Another

member, can play an instrumental

undeniable fact is that today SCO

role in RATS for the mutual benefit

countries are not only world’s

through intelligence sharing, law

support terrorism through

largest demographic mass, but

enforcement, developing best

material support or otherwise are

also include four nuclear armed

practices and technologies, mutual

no longer tolerable. Indeed, as the

countries and Iran, striving for

legal assistance, extradition

world has now realised, there are

that status. Last but not the

arrangements and capacity-building

no good terrorists,” a reference

least; they are home to largest

amongst other measures.

to Pakistan’s “good terrorist, bad

Muslim population in the world,

terrorist” (GTBT) logic.

making the region very susceptible

The re-emergence of radicalism

to radicalisation.

in Afghanistan, particularly the

Pakistan’s logic was stated by

presence of the Islamic State,

its own Army Chief Gen Bajwa

RATS

in Munich this March. He said

With this realisation, the SCO

and also other SCO countries.

that Islamabad supports ‘good

formed Regional Anti-Terrorism

Thus India, being a major stake

poses a grave threat to Kashmir

July 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

5

SCO “GOOD TERRORIST BAD TERRORIST” SYNDROME

holder in Afghanistan, alongside

attack. Finally, terrorist acts are

manifestation of the above is

the SCO, will have to help fill the

intended to produce effects beyond

breaking away of small splinter

security vacuum left after the NATO

the immediate physical damage that

groups from their main body

withdrawal. Paradoxically, the

they cause.”

(either by ideology or design) who

presence of Pakistan and China

then tend to become the enforcers

in the SCO limits India’s ability to

Terrorist groups are: “A collection

of extreme end of their perceived

push the issue of terrorism.

of individuals belonging to an

ideology, fedayeen squads of

autonomous non-State or sub-

Jaish e-Mohammed, Lashkar-

national revolutionary or anti-

e-Toiba, Harkat Ul Ansar and

Terrorists; good or bad, have to

government movement who are

Taliban groups of Afghanistan

be perpetuating acts of terrorism.

dedicated to the use of violence

and Pakistan fall in this category.

In view of UN’s inability to agree

to achieve their objectives. It

State-sponsored terrorism in India

upon its definition, the one used by

includes religion-motivated and

and Afghanistan’s contextual

RAND Corporation, USA covers all

apocalyptic groups that seek divine

sense is a form of surrogate

the nuances. “Terrorism is violence,

sanction for their acts of violence

warfare or proxy war being waged

or the threat of violence, calculated

e.g. jihadi groups operating in

by Pakistan. Same is true of Iran-

to create an atmosphere of fear

J&K or ISIS.

supported Hezbollahs in Syria

GTBT Perspective

operating in Middle East as also

India is perhaps aware that if it continues its policy of refusing to see any political validity in the Afghan Taliban, it could also be sidelined from the political process and lose the position it has spent years building via goodwill and development

various rebel groups supported

by Saudi Arabia, Russia, USA and Turkey.

It clearly emerges that all terrorist groups are heinous criminals and violators of human rights, but many are shown as good by their backers to legitimise their acts. It

and alarm, through acts designed to coerce others into actions they otherwise would not undertake or into refraining from actions that they desired to take. All terrorist acts are crimes. Most would also be violations of the rules of war, if a state of war existed. This violence or threat of violence is generally directed against civilian targets. The motives of all terrorists are political, and terrorist actions are generally carried out in a way that will achieve maximum publicity. The perpetrators are usually members of an organised group, although increasingly lone actors or individuals who may have separated from a group can have both the motivation and potentially the capability to perpetrate a terrorist

6

Surrogate Warfare Using terrorists as instruments of surrogate warfare is in vogue. Very few countries today, have the wherewithal to engage their potential adversaries in an all-out conflict. Thus, numbers of nations have adopted a policy of covertly supporting/raising terrorist organisations and groups under the umbrella of political/ religious legitimisation. This manifests in active involvement of a foreign government in training, arming, and providing logistical and intelligence assistance as well as sanctuary to otherwise autonomous terrorist groups for the purpose of carrying out violent acts on behalf of that government against its enemies. Yet another

July 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

has, therefore, become a tool of convenience.

Geopolitics of Convenience Addressing the 17th SCO Summit President Ashraf Ghani said “those countries which differentiate between good terrorists and bad terrorists will pay the price for it. Afghanistan is on the frontline of the war against terrorism. There is need for honest co-operation of regional countries and expansion of relations in regional level.

Paving the way for connection of members and observer countries of Shanghai World Organisation is a vital step that must be taken.

Afghanistan’s location at the heart of Asia and as a door to the South

Chinese Interests

Asia has changed our country as a

Afghanistan. It is highly important

regional corridor.”

to train the military that would be

able to protect the State in case

by their geopolitical interests.

the need arises. Russian Foreign

US President has urged Saudi

Pakistan, itself, has indulged in

Minister in the Human Rights

Arabia and other Arab states

a major proxy war with India and

Council in Geneva has said that

to “take the lead in combating

China has repeatedly shielded

“the international community

radicalisation” and to “take on

terrorists from Pakistan in the

should not divide terrorists as

the burden” of battling terrorism,

United Nations Security Council

‘good and bad’ ones especially

adding, “Drive them out. Drive

with its veto power. They have

when it is done depending on the

them out of your places of

established contacts with Taliban,

extremists’ proclaimed objectives

worship. Drive them out of your

despite their serious insecurities

or sources of financing.” Russia

communities. Drive them out

in Xingjiang and Tibet and

continues to fight this vicious

of your holy land. And drive

imperative of launching ‘One Belt

practice of double standards and

them out of this earth.” Trump

One Road’ initiative. Terrorists

supports the Syrian army in its

called counter-terrorism a “battle

groups, which target India, are

move to destroy terrorism. On the

invariably not the bad ones at all.

and other SCO countries.

contrary, in case of Afghanistan

As per them, one cannot but

it has pressed US to talk directly

Master Of Surrogate Warfare

point to the growing threat of

with Taliban and not through

international terrorism that has

Afghan Government. Russians

been moving from Syria to other

have called for Taliban leaders

countries, including Uzbekistan.

to be removed from the United

The situation in Afghanistan

Nations sanctions list, and also

is not getting safer and more

offered to host peace talks between

stable as groups leaving Syria

the Afghanistan Government and

are particularly moving to

the Taliban.

The US Stand

between good and evil”, but failed

The Chinese, too, are driven

to address that “my terrorist is good and your terrorist is bad”. He called India a victim of terror, but would not say that it is Pakistan who is the source.

The USA has accused Russia of arming the Taliban; Russia denies the allegations though it says it is in dialogue with the group. The US charges that Russia is exaggerating the strength of ISIS in Afghanistan to legitimise the actions of the Taliban and counter the American influence.

Russian Concerns Russian concerns are that ‘Terrorists’ may move from Afghanistan to Central Asia.

Russia is thus seeking active involvement of Uzbekistan

Pakistan is the master player of surrogate warfare, by State sponsorship; directly / indirectly or by Pakistani nationals joining various terrorist groups worldwide and carrying out terrorist acts.

Pakistan Talibans striking targets within the country are bad.

Afghan Talibans operating in

July 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

7

SCO “GOOD TERRORIST BAD TERRORIST” SYNDROME

Afghanistan and also those outfits

anti-Pakistan militant groups

The US and the Afghan Government,

which attack India are good. They

and a dangerous playground for

though keen for talks would never

are provided State patronage as

outside powers (even though this

do so from a position of weakness.

also a political face in Pakistan’s

has already happened). Pakistan

On the contrary, it would enhance

body politic. Pakistan provides

does not want to alienate the

tensions with Pakistan, increased

safe havens to terror groups such

Taliban being its only ally among

pressure and greater isolation, signs

as Lashkar-e-Toiba, Jaish-e-

Afghanistan’s political actors. It fears

of which are clearly visible presently.

Mohammad, the Taliban and the

that targeting them will provoke

Further, such action results in an

Haqqani Network. The Haqqani

retaliation in Punjab heartland. Its

arms race, forcing Pakistan to either

Network has carried out a number of

inability to sever support for these

invest more than its economy can

kidnappings and attacks against US

groups is a product of Pakistan’s

afford on creating conventional

interests in Afghanistan. The group

lack of full control over the

capabilities or resort to expending

is also blamed for several deadly

militant groups it has sponsored,

limited resources to producing and

attacks against Indian interests in

even though it is loath to admit

maintaining nuclear weapons. In

Afghanistan, including the 2008

it for likelihood of reducing the

either case, it puts an already weak

bombing of the Indian mission in

omnipotent image of Pakistan’s

economy, whose external loans are

Kabul that killed 58 people. Most

military-intelligence apparatus

on the rise by the day and whose

dangerous is the nuclear umbrella

with respect to varied domestic

populace lacks even basic facilities,

provided by Pakistan army that

audiences, and further encouraging

into deeper debt.

keeps international community

misbehaviour of militant groups.

from decisive action against it.

Although such a disclosure may

Mainstreaming Taliban

All nations in the region are only

somewhat reduce international

Overall, there is not just the mainstreaming of the Taliban and

The USA’s decision to suspend military aid to Pakistan is one of the most significant US punitive actions against Pakistan since 2001

dialogue processes around the terror group, but the international community is also opening dialogue processes with the organisation.

While the Norwegians have met Taliban representatives in cities

battling Pakistan nationals who

pressure on Pakistan, it would

such as Oslo, Karachi and Bangkok,

form the core of terror groups. India

also weaken Pakistan’s hand in

the Chinese have hosted an Afghan

battles Pak-based terror groups,

international bargaining. Pakistan is

Taliban delegation led by Qatar office

mostly comprising their nationals.

also paranoid about a strong Afghan

Chief Sher Abbas Stanikazi. The US,

Pakistan itself battles terror groups

Government aligned with India,

China, Russia and other Western

based in Afghanistan, which target

potentially helping to

nations are now in the mood to

them from across the border.

encircle Pakistan.

bring the Taliban into Afghan

Members of these groups are neither

politics. But these manoeuvers are

Afghanis nor Indians, but again Pak

Pakistan has reached the brink

stepping on the toes of some other

nationals, whom their own army has

due to its duplicitous GTBT

vital and influential partners in the

alienated. Thus, the entire region is

approach. Supporting terror groups

Afghan story, most notably, India.

engulfed by terror groups,

can never settle disputes, especially

whose members remain from

as far as India and Afghanistan

India’s Stakes

one nation alone.

are concerned. India would never

Developing countries like

commence dialogue, Pakistan would

India which are secular

never succeed in bleeding India to

democracies pursuing free

Why does Pakistan act this way?

the level it desires, nor would there

market economies, with huge

It fears an unstable Afghanistan

ever be a Kashmir uprising. Similar

population to sustain face major

that becomes a safe-haven for

would be the case with Afghanistan.

challenges. India, in addition

Pakistani Logic

8

July 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

to economic disparities, is also home to the most religions and

Convolutions

goading Pakistan develop politically-

India’s stakes in Afghanistan are

informed, sequential targeting

ethnic nationalities of the world,

great, as it fears any mainstreaming

counter-terrorism strategies,

besides its indigenous sub-regional

of the Taliban into the fabric

focussed on anti-Pakistani groups of

identities. Geographically, Indian

of Afghan politics would give

regional and global concern.

subcontinent and Indian Ocean is

unbridled access to Pakistan, as

one of the most resource rich regions

its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI)

in the world, including sources

provides, protects and manages

of fresh water. Culturally, it has

the Taliban from its fortresses in

been home to more than half of the

Rawalpindi. However, it has sat

religions of the world. Strategically,

down with Hekmatyar perhaps at

culture, food, water and bio-diversity

the behest of the Ghani government.

would become major source of

This leaves India in a bind. As a

conflicts in the future. Therefore,

major influence in Afghanistan

culturally, geostrategically and

with billions of dollars invested in

politically India has no place for

developmental projects, New Delhi

unimpeded transnational trends. Be

has sternly maintained that there

it Pan-Islamism or GTBT.

is no differentiating between GTBT.

India is perhaps aware that if it

No Direct Trade Links / Indirect Trade Another crucial reason is the lack of flourishing trade between India and Central Asian States as there is no direct access through Pakistan. India has to either trade with Central Asia through China or through Europe via Russia, thus making it an expensive affair.

Handy Tools Proxy forces or GTBT are being used by all major powers in their own national interests, including the US, Russia and China. The fight against terrorism is linked with adversaries/perceived adversaries.

To top this, economies thriving on weapon exports crave for conflict and instability.

The enunciation by Pakistani ambassador to USA hits the nail on the head. He said that “terrorism

continues its policy of refusing

in any form is just that, and added

to see any political validity

Pakistan does not want to alienate the Taliban being its only ally among Afghanistan’s political actors. It fears that targeting them will provoke retaliation in Punjab heartland

Chahbahar port in Iran has provided some convenience but in a limited way. India could look to use the SCO for exploring an alternative route to the CAR if GTBT syndrome goes away.

There are encouraging signs. The Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF)

that there can be no justification for

in the Afghan Taliban, it could

an activity that ends in violence and

also be sidelined from the political

harm to the human race. The term

process and lose the position it has

GTBT basically means to actually

spent years building via goodwill

allow somebody who is continuously

and development.

Revisit Afghan Policy

engaged in terrorism and it is not to secure the end of their activity but

While Rawalpindi’s influence on the

to justify their activity, saying this

recent decision to give Pakistan

Taliban and the Quetta Shura is

is a good terrorist. The terminology

time till May to provide its action

undeniable, New Delhi needs to

comes in for the purpose of securing

plans prior to placing it under the

revisit its Afghanistan policy and

surrenders and end of hostility.

‘grey or black list’, despite China

position it in a long-term frame, one

and Saudi Arabia’s initial support

attuned to the changing dynamics.

The only concluding prognosis is

to Islamabad. The USA’s decision

If that means opening official

that we cannot counter terrorism

to suspend military aid to Pakistan

channels with the Taliban, then

effectively if we continue to use

is one of the most significant US

such an idea should be given space

proxy forces, and do not get rid

punitive actions against Pakistan

for deliberations. To some extent,

of the “good terrorist bad

since 2001.

the United States can help through

terrorist” syndrome.

July 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

9

India-Nepal ties DIPLOMATIC TOOL

NEPAL: THE

CRUMBLING BUFFER Sino-Nepal relations are in the honeymoon phase. These are catalysed by anti-India feelings. China may promise moon to Nepal but its feasibility in economic terms must weighed carefully. India, on its part, should recalibrate its response. Keep the promises and must not try to outdo China by granting largesse or grants. Geographical realities still favour India. All that is required is to tone up the delivery system and address Nepalese concerns with alacrity it deserves.

I

ndia is ringed by its South

to outside world through the Indian

and diplomatic onslaught. India’s

Asian neighbours and even

ports. With changing geopolitical

neighbours have learnt to bargain

shares common borders

dynamics, India’s position in

hard, cock a snook and use Chinese

with most of them. It has

South Asia is being contested (and

blackmail as diplomatic tool with

open borders with Nepal

weakened) by China. Almost all

India. Indeed, India’s bilateral

and Bhutan. Both being

countries except Bhutan are under

relations need recalibration in

the sway of the Chinese economic

today’s geopolitical realities.

landlocked countries, avail access

10

July 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

When it comes to close historical

Since 1995, Nepal has been

and cultural ties, Himalayan

through many socio-political

state Nepal stands out. Though

upheavals — insurgency, violence,

India and Nepal had started their

abolition of monarchy, political

formal diplomatic relations in June

turmoil and a killer earthquake.

1947, but their people-to-people

In 2008, country emerged as

contacts are centuries old. Nepal’s

Federal Democratic Republic.

geographic location is unique;

Under the monarchy, Nepal was

India considers it as a buffer State

the lone Hindu Rashtra in the

with China. As Nepal gravitates

world. Political uncertainty had

northwards and China reaches

prevailed during 2008-2017

out to its southern neighbour, this

during which country witnessed

strategic comfort of being insulated

as many as 10 governments with

by a buffer State is wearing out

short life spans.

for India.

A 7.8 magnitude earthquake with

Simmering Relations

COL US RATHORE (RETD) The writer is a defence & security expert and risk & threat analyst.

its epicenter in Central Nepal

Indo-Nepal relations have been

jolted the Himalayan State on 25

governed by 1950 Treaty of

April 2015, causing widespread

Peace and Friendship signed

deaths and destruction in the

on 31 July between the Indian

entire area. The disaster virtually

ambassador and prime minister of

crippled the resource scarce nation

Nepal, which most of the political

as India and China competed with

each other to provide succour.

Carefully executing its strategy to gain access to South Asia, China has made forays into Nepal by constructing road and rail network

Blockade Psychosis / Portraying India As A Regional Bully The blockade was ill-timed.

It severely affected the life of common man on the street and

portrayed India as a regional bully.

Amidst the prevailing

It also hampered the earthquake

uncertainties, Nepal could

reconstruction work. Anti-India

promulgate its new Constitution

sentiments grew in Nepal and the

on 20 September 2015 replacing

clamour for forging closer ties

the 2007 interim constitution.

with China to reduce dependency

Certain provisions with regards to Madhesi people, who constitute over 40 per cent of the population, women and delineation of

Riding on anti-India sentiments, Communist Party of Nepal Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-

parties, leaders and informed

new States, were perceived

citizens of Nepal view as unequal

discriminatory. The Madhesi allege

and a symbol of Indian hegemony

that the new Constitution serves

and demand for its annulment.

the agenda of the hill people and

Though in August 2014, both the

ruling elite to keep them out

countries had agreed to “review,

of power. In September 2015,

adjust and update” the treaty,

Madhesi agitation enforced two-

the progress has been slow. Some

month-long blockade of roads

diplomats feel that being an

leading from India into Nepal. The

emotive issue which can whip up

blockade was, as Nepal alleges

anti-India sentiments at the drop

inspired by India, because its

of a hat, Nepalese establishment

insistence to Nepal to address the

is more interested in keeping it

inconsistencies in the Constitution

simmering than solving.

were not headed.

July 2018

on India gained momentum.

UML) and Communist Party of Nepal - Marxist Centre (CPN-MC) swept the 2017 General Elections and KP Oli of CPN-UML became the Prime Minister on 15 February 2018, for the second time. In May, the CPN-UML and CPN-MC merged to form unified Nepal Communist Party. The merger has consolidated the position of Left movement in Nepal and brought them even more close to China.

Carefully executing its strategy

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

11

India-Nepal ties DIPLOMATIC TOOL

to gain access to South Asia,

optical fibre link between Kerung

China has made forays into Nepal

in China and Rasuwagudi in

by constructing road and rail

Nepal getting operational. The

network. The Friendship Highway

collaboration between China

connecting Lhasa and Kathmandu

Telecom Global and Nepal Telecom

has already reached the border

has virtually ended the monopoly

posts opposite Rasuwagudi

enjoyed by Indian internet

and Kodari in Nepal. The 2015

service providers.

earthquake had disrupted the

Kodari link but Rasuwagudi link

China has also unleashed a

is operational. This is a dual

massive charm offensive on the

purpose highway meant for trade

Nepali politicians, bureaucrats,

and military use. Like highways,

army and police officers, social

expansion of railways through

elites, industrialists, students and

Tibetan plateau by extending

media. They have been to China on

existing Xining-Lhasa-Shigatse rail

junket and treated well at State’s

link up to Gyirong and Kathmandu

expense. Smitten by Chinese

is underway. China plans to

hospitality, they will certainly

complete this 660 km rail link

express good opinion about the

by 2022. In a further extension,

host country. Chinese tourists are frequenting the Nepalese capital

There is a growing clamour amongst the political and educated elite of the country to stop Nepali citizens from joining Indian army Nepal and China want to take

to the second slot.

These developments have clearly unnerved India. China is getting too close for comfort.

The proverbial “buffer state” is crumbling. Apart from facilitating trade and commerce, China can

expected to be completed by 2019.

affect military buildup on the

southern borders of Nepal during a

India has been largest trading

conflict with India.

partner of Nepal, but that situation

is also changing fast with Chinese

the railways to hinterland up to

Indian Projects

Pokhra and Lumbini and merge

Not to be left behind, India

India may lose substantial chunk

with Nepal’s ambitious East-West

has undertaken to connect

of bilateral and transit trade to

Railway. The overall effort seems to

Kathmandu from Raxaul (Bihar)

China. To be competitive, India will

have been dovetailed into China’s

and five more border points to

have to overhaul its rail and cargo

much publicised ‘Belt and Road

Nepal by rail link. The work

handling capacity and cut down

Initiative (BRI)’. Except for India,

in some portions is already

delays, which are so rampant in

all South Asian countries have

underway. It will be good for India

the system.

joined China on BRI.

if it can beat Chinese timeline to

take a train to Kathmandu first.

Internet Connectivity

12

and the countryside piping India

Additionally, India is also laying

road and rail links consolidating.

Military Ties Apart from trade and commerce,

In June 2018, China reached

a 69 km pipeline for petroleum

military ties form an important

out to Nepal through internet

products from Motihari (Bihar)

foundation stone in the Indo-

connectivity with cross-border

to Amlekhgunj (Nepal), which is

Nepal relations. Nepalese soldiers

July 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

were first drafted by Maharaja

domiciled soldiers in their ranks

and paramilitary forces without

Ranjit Singh in his army in 1809.

and file today. Their service

facing any bias or discrimination.

The British also recruited sizable

conditions are at par with the

The annual remittance from

numbers of Gorkha troops in the

Indian soldiers. In fact, the ratio

serving soldiers and the pensions

East India Company and British

of Nepali and Indian domiciled

amount to more than the total

Indian armies. Gorkha troops were

Gorkhas in the Gorkha regiments

defence budget of Nepal. Both the

used to quell the Indian Mutiny

is 70:30. Nepali citizens also serve

armies carry out joint exercises

in 1857 and also earned infamy

in the British army and Singapore

on the themes of mutual

by firing at the unarmed civilians

police, albeit in small numbers.

interest regularly.

at Jalianwala Bagh in 1919.

Â

Â

Having given a good account of

There are about 90,000 Indian

their valor in World Wars, Gorkha

army pensioners residing in Nepal,

Boycott / Anti-India Rhetoric

troops continued to serve in Indian

who draw their pensions through

There is a growing clamour

army post-independence and saw

three pension offices established

amongst the political and educated

actions in all wars and operations

by Indian army in Nepal. Sizable

elite of the country to stop Nepali

that the country has fought since

number of officers in Indian army

citizens from joining Indian army.

1947. Post-independence, India

hails from Nepal. Apart from this,

Recently, a task force formed

retained seven Gorkha regiments,

Nepali citizens also serve in the

by the Nepal Government has

which employ over 32,000 Nepali

Central and State governments,

recommended barring Nepali

July 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

13

India-Nepal ties DIPLOMATIC TOOL

Indo-Nepal border is porous and unguarded. Criminals and terrorists have been flitting across at will due to poor security mechanism on both sides.

Through Indo-Nepal border human trafficking, fake currency, smuggling of wild life have been common place. With Chinese goods entering Nepal in large quantities, spectre of smuggling, which was so common in the 1970-80s, may return.

Sino-Nepal relations are in the honeymoon phase. These are catalyzed by anti-India feelings.

China may promise moon to Nepal but its feasibility in economic terms must weighed carefully.

Though smitten by Chinese charm,

Post-independence, India retained seven Gorkha regiments, which employ over 32,000 Nepali domiciled soldiers in their ranks and file today

ensnared into debt like Pakistan and Sri Lanka have realised of late. Nepal must not neglect the aspirations and feelings of its Madheshi people, who inhabit

citizens from joining foreign

countries due to shifting course

armies. Many parliamentary

of rivers Mahakali and Narayani

panels have also recommended on

respectively. All along the 1,751

similar lines. Stopping recruitment

km border, there are numerous

to Indian army was one of the

land disputes between the citizens

anti-India poll rhetoric of Prime

of the two countries arising due

Minister KP Sharma Oli in 2017.

to poor state of demarcation. In

How can a country whose economy

March 2017, there were violent

is so heavily dependent on inward

clashes between the personnel

remittances from its migrant

of Seema Suraksha Bal (Indian

workforce jeopardise the livelihood

Border Guarding Force) and the

of over 40,000 servicemen

Nepali villagers in Lakhimpur

without providing an alternative

Kheri (Uttar Pradesh). Border is

employment to them?

an emotive issue with Nepalese,

who perceive that the Treaty

concerns with alacrity it deserves.

of Sugauli (1816) with British East

In coming years, it would be

There are some unresolved border

India Company, which demarcated

interesting to see how Delhi

issues too. Kalapani, on the India-

Nepal’s border with India was

which is just 1,152 km away

Nepal-China border in the west and

unfair, divesting it of large

from Kathmandu checkmates

Susta in the east are flashpoints of

swathes of territory which is

Beijing which is 3,157 km

territorial dispute between the two

now part of India.

from Kathmandu.

Border Disputes

14

Nepal must not allow itself to be

July 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

the Terai region bordering India.

Continuous neglect and power arrogance may sow the seeds of autonomy or secession.

India on its part, should recalibrate its response. Keep the promises and must not try to outdo China by granting largesse or grants. Geographical realities still favour India. All that is required is to tone up the delivery system and address Nepalese

strong-willed state VIETNAMESE

DR JAGMOHAN MEHER The writer, a former Pre-doctoral Fulbright Fellow at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and Senior Fulbright-Nehru Fellow at the Indiana University, Bloomington, United States, is Professor of Political Science, National Defence Academy, Khadakwasla, Pune.

QUADRILATERAL

PLUS ONE: VIETNAM AS A DETERRENT

India must strive hard to sustain its ongoing proactive pragmatism vis-a-vis Vietnam and position itself as a critical quadrilateral player in the emerging global power equation. A closer military/strategic cooperation between New Delhi and Hanoi would set a template for other quadrilateral members in their bilateral ties with Vietnam.

July 2018

I

f the ultimate aim of the India-Japan-US-Australia quadrilateral (QUAD) is to counter China’s aggressive power-play in the IndoPacific region, Vietnam appears as the best bet. For its geopolitical contiguity, culture of resistance to outsiders, as well as Hanoi’s emerging strategic ties with the members of this coalition, Vietnam seems to be more congenial to act as a deterring force against a belligerent China if the envisioned formulation is indeed configured like an “Asian NATO.” New Delhi must be proactive in convergence with its own national interests.

With a population of about 95 million (1 billion more live in China), Vietnam shares a 1,347km border in the southern flank of the huge Chinese landmass.

Since this geographic proximity and asymmetry will never change, China will never cease to be

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

15

strong-willed state VIETNAMESE

the most critical factor for the Vietnamese decision-making apparatus. At the same time, the country’s strategic location places it as “the gate” for China to enter Southeast Asia from the north.

Significantly, China imports 80 per cent of its crude-oil consumption through the South China Sea (SCS) and the Sea has proven oil reserves of 7 billion barrels and natural gas of some 900

America’s leadership in Asia and the world at large. Because of this geostrategic significance, Vietnam could play the role of a critical front-line State in the evolving security architecture of the IndoPacific region. And, this is the reason why maintaining security along its northern border has been a major geostrategic imperative for Hanoi.

Chinese Expansionism

exploring for oil and gas. They used force to prevent Vietnamese fishermen from reaching disputed Paracel Islands during a storm in 2012. The rival claimants have also had countless lesser incidents over the years leading the International Security journal to comment in 2014 that “Major tensions are a defining characteristic of contemporary security relations between Hanoi and Beijing.”

Vietnam’s only aim is to check the Chinese power, which the country is already doing within its limited resources and capabilities

For centuries, various Chinese dynasties have attempted to subjugate the Vietnamese territory and treated it as a “tributary state”, which should pay obeisance to Chinese suzerainty. Therefore, Hanoi has been struggling to hold its ground in the midst of Beijing’s aggressive land reclamation across the border and also enhancement of its military infrastructure along reefs. In recent times, China has attacked Vietnam over the status of islands in the SCS as late as in the 1970s and 80s. In 2011, Chinese patrol vessels cut off the cables of a Vietnamese ship

But despite being a militarily weaker nation compared to its powerful neighbour, the Vietnamese have never accepted Chinese domination and they feel proud of their historic mythology and legend which are full of wars and continuous resistance to outside domination. Vietnamese have proved themselves as a “strongly willed” State for deterrence. Fighting against external enemy is a normal course of action that has been deeprooted in Vietnam’s strategic culture. No matter how big and

trillion cubic feet in addition to its strategic significance as crossroads of global maritime trade. This is the place where China could one day put a big question mark on

Dynamics of Sino-Vietnam Relations

16

July 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

powerful the enemy might be, Vietnam has learned that it pays to not back down and surrender.

Because of this strategic culture the Vietnamese have nurtured over the centuries, it is even difficult for the country’s political leadership to renounce and surrender the nation’s primary claims and goals (in the present situation, their claims in the SCS) which, they fear, would severely delegitimise their rule. Today, Vietnam remains adamant, and often belligerent vis-a-vis China in maintaining its claims in the SCS; notwithstanding President Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Hanoi.

This sentiment of strong-will and determination is reflected in their common glue of nationalism to such an extent that even during the heyday of the country’s communist rule, their authoritarian ideology never overrode their nationalist concerns.

Stands Up And Fights Vietnam’s strategic culture is also about unyielding opposition and war against outside intervention.

One study suggests that the country has survived some 17 major Chinese invasions with far more superior armies over the last 2,000 years and each time the Vietnamese have repelled them with full force. Today, Vietnamese children grow up with text-books full of stories of their national heroes who have valiantly fought their enemy in the north, and hence, the legends of anti-Chinese resistance run deep in their minds.

Memories of the horrific 1979 Border War that killed thousands on both sides within a period of one month and the ongoing dispute over the islands in the SCS including Beijing’s arbitrary claims

Such a determining force will help maintain peace and stability in the whole of Indo-Pacific and also compel the Middle Kingdom to think twice before it contemplates flexing its military muscle on the portions of Vietnam’s internationally recognised EEZ are seen as sufficient reasons for an eternal rivalry between the two hostile neighbours.

“All People’s War”

One aspect of Vietnam’s strategic culture is “all-people’s war,” meaning the mobilisation of the entire population to protect the nation. This is about leveraging the strengths of weaker military forces to exploit the weaknesses of stronger military forces, in short, asymmetric warfare. The most successful employment of these tactics in Vietnam is traced back to thirteenth century when the legendary war hero Tran Hung Dao defeated the far more powerful Mongol invaders led by Kublai Khan. In the 20th century, Vietnam used the same tactics to defeat the powerful armies of USA, France and China. In an impending war with a formidable China the next time around, Vietnam plans to fight a “people’s war at sea” by using its submarines, anti-ship cruise missiles, Coast Guard vessels and even mobilizing thousands of “fishing militia” boats. Vietnamese may scale new heights and redefine the meaning of asymmetric warfare in the next war. What more can the quadrilateral expect from a front-line State which is ready to fight a protracted war with an emerging superpower?

July 2018

So, the recent Chinese military buildup in the disputed waters across the SCS wherein China is creating an atmosphere of fear and intimidation for Vietnam will certainly not intimidate the Vietnamese. While shaping their national security strategy, Vietnamese have developed a credible approach espousing that resistance has served the country better than appeasement which inspires them to maintain a belligerent stance of standing up to their powerful enemies. To protect their maritime boundaries, they have already developed a sea-denial strategy and effectively deterring the PLA Navy (PLAN) in the volatile waters of the SCS.

The 1979 Debacle So while supporting Vietnam in its historical struggle against China, the quadrilateral must be aware of the fact that they are only enhancing the military/ strategic capabilities of an already deterring force. They must admire Vietnam’s daring resistance against its far more superior PLA particularly in the 1979 War when the Vietnamese inflicted severe damage upon China with the PLA losing thousands of soldiers. It is also remarkable to mention that China was forced to withdraw within six weeks of its invasion without achieving any political or military goals it had set for itself. The war proved to be “disastrous” for China and

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

17

strong-willed state VIETNAMESE

“Beijing concluded that the PLA could not fight as an integrated force in a local war.” It is pertinent to emphasise that Vietnam could defeat China in the battlefield at a time when the former’s economy was just a small fraction of its northern neighbour’s and a small defence industry with limited military options.

Military Preparedness Thus, Vietnam is already playing a counterforce to thwart China and it does not seem to be hesitant of making such military moves in future. Vietnam’s acquisition of six advanced Kilo class submarines, Sukhoi aircrafts, S-300 air defence systems from Russia and its installation of very accurate “Extra” rocket artillery systems procured from Israel show its military preparedness.

through its air, sea and landlaunched missiles and long-range SAMS. However, the country lacks necessary surveillance assets, access to satellites, adequate number of patrol aircrafts, longrange sensors, etc. A sustained military, economic and political support from the quadrilateral to facilitate the procurement of these weapon systems would further bolster Vietnam’s endurance against its hegemonic northern neighbour.

Beijing-Moscow Bhai-bhai Beyond its viable strategic equation with the quadrilateral, Vietnam also maintains closer military ties with Russia. But Hanoi sees a growing convergence of interests between Beijing and Moscow on the South China Sea dispute although Russia appears

The quadrilateral plus Vietnam could be a lethal combination to deter the Chinese power in the SCS

18

Significantly, these highly sophisticated Israeli rockets have been deployed in five bases in the Spratly Islands placing them within the striking range of China’s runways and military

sympathetic toward Vietnam’s concerns in the SCS. One emerging strategic compulsion for Vietnam is that till recently Hanoi did not have a reliable military/strategic partner who

installations. In the event of a land battle in Vietnam’s north, the PLA would have a tough time to face the tenacity of Vietnamese infantry which is known for its guerilla tactics in inhospitable terrain. The PLA can also expect severe casualties from the Vietnam’s People’s Army’s (VPA) mechanised counter-attacks in such an eventuality. Vietnam is also capable of inflicting severe damage to PLAN’s warships and PLAAF’s most expensive warplanes

would stand for its security in a crisis situation, especially in the event of a Chinese attack. Such a partner will never be Moscow because of its dependence on “China’s economy for export of oil, gas, and defence technology”. The days of the Cold War era of China following Russia’s leadership are no more there. It is the other way round today. So, it will be difficult for Vietnam to rely on Russia when Hanoi comes under military/ strategic pressure from Beijing.

July 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Therefore, the only hope for Vietnam is to enhance its strategic partnership with the countries of the quadrilateral with which it does not have direct geopolitical differences.

US Must Lead As a superpower with unprecedented military might, the United States must take the lead. The proponents of the US’ grand strategy suggest that the United States should “align itself closely with Vietnam.” They also favour movements of American warships through the contested waters and stationing of its fighter bombers in the region, especially in unison with allies and friends. They maintain that such an action would send a clear message to Beijing to abide by the international law, especially the Law of the Sea, and strongly assert: “Doing so is a must if the United States wants to uphold freedom of navigation in the 1.4 million-square-mile sea.” The recent sailing of two US Navy warships within 12 nautical miles of the Paracel Islands over which China has territorial disputes with Vietnam, and the renaming of the US Pacific Command as the US Indo-Pacific Command show the Trump Administration’s resolve to check the Chinese power in the SCS.

Vietnam’s Strategy

Vietnam looks at the individual quadrilateral member as critical strategic partner as its gargantuan northern neighbour continues to militarise the island outposts in the disputed SCS and deploys its long-range bombers putting entire Southeast Asia within their striking range. In fact, using

lead role backed by the other three nations of the quadrilateral and also their friendly countries, the coalition is better placed to provide an effective deterring support and help sustain the military/strategic pressure against Beijing. As seen from its past military experiences and present strategic posture, Vietnamese military is designed to deter Chinese military threats, intimidation and war.

India’s Responsibility

foreign benefactors to achieve its goals to maintain territorial integrity and sovereignty is rooted in Vietnam’s strategic culture.

military power and potential), backed by other great power/s, takes it head-on with all its sweat and blood. In recent memory,

So, while committing Vietnam’s security in the face of a roaring dragon, the quadrilateral members must accept a reality that they might be having many geopolitical goals to achieve; but Vietnam’s only aim is to check the Chinese power, which the country is already doing within its limited resources and capabilities.

Historically, a big power meets its demise only when a daring nation (not necessarily with extraordinary

Afghanistan is a glaring example.

A poor, mountainous nation, only because of its audacious bravery could successfully defeat the great Soviet empire, and that was possible with the military support of the United States and a coalition of many countries. In case of Vietnam, an unruly autocratic China, which has no respect for any kind of international norm and behaviour, deserves such a collective response. With the US playing a

July 2018

India must strive hard to sustain its ongoing proactive pragmatism vis-a-vis Vietnam and position itself as a critical quadrilateral player in the emerging global power equation. A closer military/ strategic cooperation between New Delhi and Hanoi would set a template for other quadrilateral members in their bilateral ties with Vietnam. Such a relationship would have far-reaching security ramification in terms of its rallying effect: their capacity and potential is to attract more friends and allies to advance their common security interests in the Indo-Pacific. The quadrilateral must concretise an action plan to (a) enhance Vietnam’s military capabilities and commit for its security; (b) stop any Chinese moves to gain control over the sea-lanes in the SCS; and more significantly, (c) serve as a public coalition to speak out against EEZ violations.

Such a determining force will help maintain peace and stability in the whole of Indo-Pacific and also compel the Middle Kingdom to think twice before it contemplates flexing its military muscles elsewhere. The quadrilateral plus Vietnam could be a lethal combination to deter the Chinese power in the SCS.

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

19

Sino-India summit WUHAN AND LATER

I BEING

n today’s increasingly troubled world, efforts to balance turbulent relationships among nations, especially with neighbours with whom there is a history

of confrontation, are indeed welcome. Notwithstanding scores

CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC

As India endeavours to bring its relations with China on an even keel, it must continue determinedly its relationships with the QUAD. With Japan, it must enhance both its economic and geopolitical ties especially in reaching out to South East Asian nations and to Africa as being planned by both these Asian powers.

The ‘Asia-Africa Growth Corridor’ envisaged by India and Japan needs to be accorded its due importance. It is worth remembering that only parity or near parity in Comprehensive National Power is the primary stabilising factor in relations between any two nations.

of serious contentious issues that bedevil the long-vexed relations between the two Asian giants, India and China, windows in geopolitical opportunities must not be missed albeit without compromising core national interests.

The unofficial summit in early May 2018 at the picturesque East Lake, Wuhan, between Chinese strongman President Xi Jingping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been, unquestionably, a startling strategic initiative by both nations to reset their ties in a changing world order. That for anyone, from the two governments, the media or any geopolitical analysts to suggest that convening such meetings, even if declared without any agendas are truly unofficial or impromptu will be far from reality—the ‘nuts and bolts’ for this summit would have been carefully worked out over the past few months. Surely these would have been necessitated, primarily, to ease tensions between the two Asian powers post the 73-day Doklam stand-off in September 2017 and to look for avenues beyond the current frostiness which defines IndiaChina relations.

Public Relations Success Indian Prime Minister with President of China

20

July 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

By all standards in international

protocol, symbolism and optics—

understanding and “enhance

which the Indian PM has

predictability” and “effectiveness”

uniquely mastered—the Wuhan

whilst managing border affairs.

Summit was a resounding public

The India-China border, referred

relations success with his Chinese

to as the Line Of Actual Control

hosts going all out to welcome

(LAC) runs over 4,000 km and

him, paying attention to the

is the major bone of contention

minutest details in hospitality

between the two nations with

and exuding uncommon personal

14 cartographic disputes

warmth towards PM Modi. Even

and countless, near weekly

Bollywood hits were belted around

transgressions by the Chinese

shows the care which PM Modi’s

across the LAC since the 1962

hosts took to please the visiting

Indo-China War. Since then,

Indian PM! The actual spin-offs

both nations have had an armed

of this rare bonhomie between

skirmish in Nathu La (Sikkim) in

President Xi and Prime Minister

1967, later a stand-off for over

Modi will now be keenly monitored

eight months in Sumdrong Chu in

by all with the benchmark being

northwestern Arunachal Pradesh

Chinese actions on the ground in

in 1986 and recently in September

the months to follow.

2017, at the Doklam Plateau. India

LT GEN KAMAL DAVAR PVSM, AVSM (RETD)

In Nepal, the two Communist parties uniting is music to Chinese ears as India slowly loses its pre-eminent status; Sri Lanka has no choice but to grant berthing rights to Chinese nuclear submarines right under India’s nose

The writer, a distinguished soldier is a veteran of the 1965 and 1971 ops and has served in all theatres of ops in India in his 41 years of service.

He has been GOC of the entire Ladakh sector, Chief of Staff of a Corps HQ in J&K and subsequently commanded a Corps resposible for the defence of Punjab. After a short stint as DG Mech Forces, he was especially selected by the GOI to raise the Defence Intelligence Agency.

As the founder DG DIA, many innovative intelligence initiatives, both at home and abroad, were taken. After retirement, he writes and lectures on security and strategic subjects. Is also involved with Track 2 initiatives and is widely travelled.

Though no official joint statement

admirably has stood its ground,

was issued by the two leaders after

militarily and diplomatically,

had illegally ceded 5,180 sq km

the summit, as earlier announced,

during all three stand-offs with

yet the Indian Foreign Secretary,

the Chinese.

to them in the Shaksgam Valley

Vijay Gokhale, called a press

in POK in November 1963. Some sections of the media have also

conference and the Indian

Doklam Message

MEA issued a press release to

Reportedly at the Wuhan Summit,

highlight the take-offs from the

India had pointed out that the

Modi-Xi Summit.

existing “tri-junction boundary

points” between India and China

Foremost among the confidence-

and any third party will be

building measures which need

“finalised in consultation with the

to be taken by both nations to

countries concerned.” India has to

establish trust to move forward,

remain firm to ensure its territorial

was that both leaders have

integrity as China is already in

message to Bhutan that perhaps

issued “strategic guidance” to

adverse possession of over 38,000

India may not be capable of

their militaries to strengthen

sq km in the Aksai Chin region

looking after the interests of the

communication, build mutual

in the west and the Pakistanis

tiny Himalayan kingdom!

July 2018

reported that notwithstanding claims by the Indian side, the Chinese have in actual fact, not withdrawn from the Doklam Plateau but ‘dug in’ at a distance of a 100 metres or so from the original intrusion. At Doklam, the Chinese side has tried to send a

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

21

Sino-India summit WUHAN AND LATER

assistance to the Dalai Lama since

manner by both governments.

he escaped to India in 1959. The

That China is also currently

The Chinese oft-repeated claim of

Tibetan spiritual leader, along

engaged in a trade war with the

disputing the whole of Arunachal

with his huge flock, remains

US is no coincidence and indeed

Pradesh, being part of India, has

indebted to India and we must

a contentious issue for both the

been another serious sore point

never fail them—values will always

economic giants! Some efforts are,

between the two nations. The

transcend temporary geopolitical

however, being made by both sides

Dalai Lama’s visits to Arunachal

gains in the long run.

since the past few weeks to arrive

Value Dalai Lama

always causes some unease to

22

at mutually acceptable solutions.

the Chinese though India, very

Trade Compulsions

recently, did make the mistake by

Though India-China trade has

distance from the US-China

giving the Tibetan spiritual leader

touched nearly US $85 billion,

trade war.

somewhat of a cold-shoulder

yet the trade-turnover is heavily

in forbidding attendance by its

loaded in China’s favour. The

Assimilating PoK

officials for the Dalai Lama’s

latter, by a well-crafted economic

Importantly, China has to change

proposed rally in New Delhi.

strategy, has been importing

track by addressing Indian

India must never deviate from its

vital raw minerals but not been

concerns as regards its support for

long followed policy of sheltering

allowing Indian exports to it,

India’s membership of the Nuclear

the Dalai Lama and his hapless

simultaneously, also dumping

Suppliers Group, also agree to

Tibetan disciples on humanitarian

a large variety of finished goods

grounds. India must never forget

in the Indian markets thereby

that the world community, at

causing a huge economic

large, has commended India for

imbalance in trade between the

having given political asylum

two nations. This anomaly will

and a modicum of financial

have to be rectified in an equitable

July 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

India, pragmatically, is keeping its

let the UN officially designate Pak terror chieftain Masood Azhar as an international terror kingpin.

More specifically, China must acknowledge India’s sensitivities as regards its ‘One Belt One

Corridor. The Indian security

way for PM Narendra Modi’s visit

establishment has also to factor

to Wuhan. However, what is still

in China’s massive infrastructural

not clear is whether this initiative

developments in adjoining

was India’s or China’s or was India

Tibet including a substantial

buckling under some undeclared

upgradation of its air bases.

pressure. The Indian government’s not-so-strategic decision to keep Australia (one of the members

Afghanistan

of the QUAD) out of the Malabar

It has, however, indeed been an

naval exercises does point to

encouraging step by China to

some change in India’s stance

agree cooperating with India in civil infrastructural development in conflict-afflicted and impoverished Afghanistan. Undoubtedly, IndiaChina cooperation in Afghanistan buttressed by Russian and Iranian assistance can dramatically alter Afghanistan’s fortunes and fate in the future. Russia, too, has expressed its desire to support Indian endeavours in Afghanistan—a good augury for Road’ Initiative as the latter runs through the disputed territory of the Gilgit-Baltistan and PoK regions. India must factor in the recent developments in these two regions. The Pakistan National Security Council’s recent decision to grant greater administrative authority and financial powers to the civilian governments in these two regions is fraught with adversarial impact on India’s position and standing for the region. Reportedly, Pakistan

Afghanistan. India and China’s

towards China.

The next few months will largely be indicative of the intentions of the Red Dragon as regards the future contours of India-China relations China with its GDP five times

likely collaboration and the new

larger and its military budget

apparent bonhomie between the

over three times that of India

two nations have caused some

has propelled a massive Chinese

discomfiture to China’s protégé

military build-up in the region

in the region and the major

apart from China ensuring

mischief maker in Afghanistan, namely, Pakistan!

economic domination of its smaller

India Buckled Under?

cost. That China has successfully

neighbours, primarily, at India’s

The last few months leading

reinforced its ‘String of Pearls’

to the Wuhan Summit have,

encircling India is a well-accepted

unquestionably, witnessed some

strategic truth.

softening in India-China relations.

The last four months has seen

Nepal Lost

visits to China by India’s National

In Nepal, the two Communist

scale presence of Chinese engineers

Security Adviser Ajit Doval, India’s

parties uniting is music to Chinese

and troops in India’s north-west

Minister for External Affairs

ears as India slowly loses its pre-

is fraught with security challenges

Sushma Swaraj and Defence

eminent status with its Himalayan

for India. All indicators also point

Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.

neighbour notwithstanding its age

to the fact that China is going out

Barring polite diplomatese, the

old religious affinity and decades’

of its way to assist Gilgit-Baltistan

Indian public is not aware as to

old political and strategic ties

becoming Pakistan’s fifth province

the tangible outcome of all these

with it. China has also ensured

to ensure no international censure

high profile visits in a relatively

that tiny Sri Lanka gets entangled

of its China-Pakistan Economic

short span of time. Of course,

under China’s “debt-book

these undoubtedly, did pave the

diplomacy” and has no choice

has leased this entire belt to the Chinese for 50 years and the large

July 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

23

Sino-India summit WUHAN AND LATER

but to grant berthing rights to

If China could rein in its undue

National Power is the primary

Chinese nuclear submarines and

assertiveness, its regional and

stabilising factor in relations

other naval vessels right under

globally hegemonic ambitions, it

between any two nations. Thus,

India’s nose. Additionally, China

will pave the way for a peaceful,

India has a long and arduous

continues to invest heavily and

strife-free region and lead to what

path ahead before equitable and

augment its military ties with neighbouring Bangladesh much to India’s discomfiture.

Strengthen QUAD As India endeavours to bring its relations with China on an even keel, it must continue determinedly its relationships with the QUAD (four-nation quadrilateral). With Japan, it must enhance both its economic and geopolitical ties especially in reaching out to South East Asian nations and to Africa as being planned by both these Asian powers. The ‘Asia-Africa Growth Corridor’ envisaged by India and Japan needs to be accorded its due importance.

24

peaceful relations between it and

The Tibetan spiritual leader, along with his huge flock, remains indebted to India and we must never fail them

China can fructify.

The Wuhan Summit has shown the way and it will now require statesmanship from both its leaders, and, sincerity in intent of the two nations to ensure a mutually beneficial relationship between the two. However, China

many analysts had predicted a

will have to walk the extra mile to

couple of decades back—an Asian

assuage Indian feelings and soften

century! India, as it extends its

its countless skeptics both in

hand of friendship to China, must

India and the world at large.

remain on guard, improve its

The next few months will largely

capacities and diverse capabilities,

be indicative of the intentions

especially of its military. It is worth

of the Red Dragon as regards

remembering that only parity or

the future contours of

near parity in Comprehensive

India-China relations.

July 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

India-Myanmar strategic ties NEW IMPETUS NEEDED

CONFLUENCE OF INDIA-CHINA INTERESTS The urgency in India’s foreign policy is very much evident. Myanmar will play a key role in India’s Act East Policy, if Delhi can counter-balance China’s influence. In order to impel Myanmar into its folds it is time that India understands its present day needs. Myanmar is battling serious internal unrest and the Myanmar government and the army needs to control the rebellious armies of the ethnic groups for which the tatmadaw (armed forces) needs upgradations in its equipment. The new democratic set-up needs to strengthen its democratic institutions. It needs large scale investments in infrastructure and rural development.

B

The writer is Professor and Former Head, Dept. of Defence and Strategic Studies, University of Allahabad, Allahabad.

COL (DR) MOHINDER PAL SINGH

efore looking at the

position in India’s neighborhood

India-Myanmar

vis-à-vis the ‘Act East’ policy also.

strategic ties, it

PROF SANJEEV BHADAURIA

would be in the

Military Grip

fitness of things

The geographical location of

to peruse through

Myanmar (erstwhile Burma) gives

The writer is Senior Fellow, Chanakya Policy and Research Council, New Delhi.

representatives and instead made them political prisoners.

the historical links between the

it a strong strategic significance

two neighbours. Besides being

for the two Asian giants’ i.e. India

its closest Southeast Asian

and China. However, with over

neighbour, Myanmar’s importance

70 years of military rule, the

in India’s foreign policy is marked

country remained like a pariah

by its long porous international

State and did not open to the

border with northeast India,

outside world. The historic election

India’s quest for connectivity

of 1990 resulted in a landslide

with East Asia, India’s search for

victory for the Nation League for

alternative sources of energy, and

Democracy (NLD) under Aung San

its economic linkages with the

Suu Kyi. The military regime did

region. Myanmar holds a special

not transfer power to the elected

July 2018

This large scale blatant human right abuse resulted in strict sanctions by US, Japan and EU. China, which till now did not enjoy cordial relations with Myanmar owing to the anti-national activities of Communist Party of Burma (which was supported by China), now moved in deftly and helped the military regime of Myanmar

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

25

India-Myanmar strategic ties NEW IMPETUS NEEDED

its importance lies firstly, in keeping the north-eastern insurgency under check; secondly, creating an economic and strategic land-bridge to ASEAN countries; and thirdly, tapping the huge oil and gas reserves in India’s neighbourhood. The proposal to connect the northeastern States and ASEAN through Myanmar is very important for India. The trilateral IndiaMyanmar-Thailand (IMT) highway holds great promise. The proposed multi-modal Kaladan project to which was in dire need of up-

leader Aung San Suu Kyi who had

gradation by openly supplying

been kept under house arrest

military hardware. India, on the

by the military regime and thus

other hand, an ardent supporter

the relations remained frigid

of democracy maintained

for a long time.

neutrality and supported the pro-democracy leaders.

Conjoined Histories

Indian Policy Shift However, seeing the sudden forays made by China in

Historically, India and Myanmar

Myanmar, India realigned its

have had strong social and

foreign policy from idealism

cultural ties as they were ruled as

to pragmatism. This policy

one nation by the British till 1937.

shift was mainly due to five

Approximately, 2.5 million Indians

factors; economic development

had settled in Myanmar during

of India’s eastern states, India’s

the British rule. After attaining

trade interests with Myanmar

independence from the British

and ASEAN, India’s

rule in 1948, India and Myanmar

quest for energy security

signed a ‘treaty of friendship’ in

(Myanmar has large

1951. Under the U Nu regime,

reserves), increased China’s

the relations between India and

influence near its eastern

Myanmar were extremely cordial.

borders and unlikelihood

However, after the military

of a change in the military

takeover by Ne Win in 1962, the

regime in the foreseeable future

relations became too turbulent due

of Myanmar. In 1996, India began

to the regime’s isolationist policies.

engaging with the military regime

Next three decades saw large

and opened bilateral trade.

scale nationalisation of industries, repression of minorities, and expulsion of Indians, etc.

After stepping down of Ne Win

26

Strategic Importance Of Myanmar Myanmar’s strategic importance

and 1990 Elections, India

for both India and China

supported the pro-democracy

cannot be gainsaid. For India

July 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

connect Mizoram through Sittwe Port in Myanmar is another major project. The water transport portion is ready but there is no road to connect Mizoram. So, given the geographical proximity of Myanmar with India, the establishment of road, rail, inland waterway and maritime links is vital for India. Though, there are inadequacies over trilateral highway considered a vital infrastructure towards realisation of India’s ‘Act East’ policy but now it appears that it is very much possible.

Chinese Outreach For China which is landlocked from the south by India and Myanmar, Myanmar offers a viable landbridge to the Indian Ocean which helps in coming out of the ‘Malacca Dilemma’. The very narrow Malacca Strait is the route from which China meets 80 per cent of its energy requirements.

In the past two decades, China has gone out of its way to help Myanmar and even came out as its saviour from the wrath of UN sanctions for human rights abuse

in 2007 by exercising its ‘veto’ power

Malacca. This action of China

large scale riots had broken

in the Security Council. China has

and restoration of democracy

out in Myanmar to oust the

continued to engage with not

brought not only the USA

Chinese. Secondly, many Chinese

only the semi-military regime

but also the other western

companies who have invested huge

(2010-2015) of Gen Thein Sein

countries lift majority of the

capital in Myanmar have caused

but also with Aung San Suu

sanctions against Myanmar. By

environmental degradations

Kyi after her party came to power

2015, Myanmar economy was on

and also, hampered the local

about two years back.

path of recovery as US, Japan and

businesses. Thirdly, the timber

many European companies started

treasures of Myanmar forests are

investing in Myanmar.

well known to the world. There

In spite of china’s overwhelming support to the military regime,

was large scale smuggling of

democracy was partially restored

China’s investment in Myanmar’s

timber being carried out by

in 2010 and fully restored with

infrastructure projects about a

Chinese from the mountainous

a duly elected civilian Head of

whopping $18 billion which is

border areas. Smuggling of jade

State in 2015. This was seen as

almost nine times more than the

and other natural resource

a setback for China’s Myanmar policy by many analysts. A number of countries had not only removed the trade sanctions against Myanmar from 2011 onwards but also started giving generous aid. In 2011, the Government of Myanmar stopped work on China sponsored $3.6 billion Myitsone project

Myanmar’s strategic importance for India lies in keeping the north-eastern insurgency under check; as an economic and strategic land-bridge to ASEAN; and the huge oil and gas reserves

because of internal pressures and

next big neighbour, i.e. India.

wealth of Myanmar has also

reports of damage to environment.

China’s recent OBOR conference

resulted in arousing legitimate

was attended by none other than

concerns of the locals against

China has also constructed two

Aung San Suu Kyi, the foreign

Chinese businessmen.

pipelines for transportation of oil

minister and leader of the ruling

and gas through Myanmar for

party. So, there is no denying the

which it is paying an annual

fact that China is a big player in

India Needs To Act Fast / India’s Swift Action

tariff of almost $30 million

Myanmar but India has certainly

The ‘Look East Policy’ (LEP)

resulting in an earning of over

made inroads there too.

adopted by India in the late 90s

$30 billion in next 30 years,

could not yield the desired results

for the fledging economy of

Myanmar’s Skepticism About China

Myanmar. The pipeline connects

Is Myanmar skeptical about

The oil pipeline project for which

Kuaykphyu to Kunming which

China’s intentions? This moot

India was a strong bidder was

may subsequently turn into

question has an answer which is

handed over to China in 2008

an economic corridor akin

known to everyone in Myanmar

just after it supported Myanmar

to CPEC. By commissioning the

and doesn’t even need a citation,

in UN security Council in 2007

two pipelines, China is not

and the answer is nothing but

by thwarting the Human Rights

only buying oil and gas

‘Yes’. The reasons for this

Sanctions against it. India’s

from Myanmar but also

affirmative answer are aplenty.

major projects of Kaladan

made an alternate route

Historically, China’s support

Multimodal Freight Corridor

to avoid getting their oil

to Communist Party of Burma

and India-Myanmar-Thailand

tankers strangled at the

(CPB) was detested by everyone

Trilateral Highway project are

US dominated narrow strait at

in the decade of 60s and a

moving at a very slow pace for

which is an enormous sum

July 2018

in Myanmar as it was not able to make any major breakthrough.

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

27

India-Myanmar strategic ties NEW IMPETUS NEEDED

last almost a decade. There was an impending need for injecting fresh steam in LEP. The present government immediately reacted and in 2014,launched the ‘Act East Policy (AEP) which initiated

India and China should not see Myanmar as a ‘ground of confrontation’ between them but as an ‘area of collaboration’ where the interests of both can converge

new forays not only in Myanmar

28

but also with the other

with a meagre 1.36 per cent of total

minister Nirmala Sitharaman said

ASEAN countries.

FDI invested into Myanmar. These

that the bilateral trade between

figures themselves speak for the

the countries has a much larger

As of now, the Indian investment

tardy results achieved from the LEP.

untapped potential. “She sought the

in Myanmar is about $2 billion.

After the implementation of AEP,

cooperation of the Myanmar side in

In FY 2015-16, Myanmar’s trade

India-Myanmar trade has shown

actively pursuing enhanced road,

with India was at $1.3 billion as

some significant improvement and

sea and air connectivity between

against $9.6 billion with China and

grew by 6 per cent from US $2.05

the two”. This issue was discussed

$5.7 billion with Thailand. As far

billion in 2015-16 to US $2.18

as FDI in Myanmar is concerned,

billion in 2016-17. Towards this,

India is the 9th largest investor

the then Commerce and Industry

July 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

in detail during the sixth India– Myanmar Joint Trade Committee meeting in New Delhi in June

2017. Both the sides also agreed to explore opening of two new border trade points at Pangkhuwa and Zoninpuri. At present, the border trade between the two countries is only from the four points and these additional border trade points will give a much needed boost to the border trade.

The urgency in India’s foreign policy is very much evident. Myanmar will play a key role in India’s Act East Policy, if Delhi can counter-balance China’s influence.

Untapped Opportunities In order to impel Myanmar into its folds it is time that India

understands its present day needs. Myanmar is battling serious internal unrest and the Myanmar Government and the army needs to control the rebellious armies of the ethnic groups for which the tatmadaw (armed forces) needs upgradations in its equipment.

The new democratic set-up needs to strengthen its democratic institutions. It needs large scale investments in infrastructure and rural development. The country is rich in resources but poor in industries. There is a large scale need for manufacturing sector to develop. There is a great deal required in IT and communication sector. India has the entire wherewithal to not only invest but

also collaborate with a view to help them establish new institutions and industry. The two day official visit of PM Modi to Myanmar in September 2017 was a step in the right direction to further augment bilateral ties to a new high.

Hopefully, it will give the relation and AEP a shot in the arm to attain newer heights of strategic collaboration.

In order to plan our strategy, it is imperative to understand Myanmar from Myanmar’s perspective.

Undoubtedly, Myanmar needs assistance from both—a rich economy of China and a strong democracy of India, however, it will need the tenacity to balance

Myanmar will play a key role in India’s Act East Policy, if Delhi can counter-balance China’s influence the interests of both and yet not yield to any one particular side.

On the other hand, India and China should not see Myanmar as a ‘ground of confrontation’ between them but as an ‘area of collaboration’ where the interests of both can converge.

Myanmar has very recently come out of its dark phase of military rule and as responsible regional players, both India and China must play a constructive role in developing not only the infrastructural needs but also helping in strengthening the democratic institutions for sustainable development of Myanmar which in the long run will bring stability in the region if the positivity is continued.

July 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

29

transit corridor LIFELINES

CHAHBAHAR

LINK - OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES As the success of Chahbahar lies on India, it should resolutely support Iran instead of falling into any kind of Trumpian trap. The port will extend the reach of India and help it to increase its economic activities in Central and West Asia.

I 30

ndia’s assistance to

and transit corridor. The corridor

nuclear deal which was signed

Afghanistan and its reach in

will also provide Afghanistan and

in 2015. This step has sparked

the Central Asian countries

the Central Asian countries trade

a fear that once again Iran may

like Uzbekistan and

links with the world. However, a

be turned into an international

Turkmenistan suffers due

question over the viability of the

pariah State, though other States

to absence of connectivity.

port hovers around due to growing

have not followed USA. However,

To some extent, this problem is

tensions between the United States

a challenge remains. In such a

sorted out with the opening of the

of America (USA) and Iran. In May

situation, real test to the Indian

first phase of the Chahbahar port

2018, USA withdrew from Iranian

foreign policy is how to balance its

July 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

relationships with USA and Iran.

between Afghanistan and Central

India needs Iran for its energy

Asian countries. This will boost the

security and strategic significance

regional trade in the region by over

of the Chahbahar port.

US $12 billion.

Chahbahar Benefits

Soon after the operationalisation

On 3 December 2017, the

of the first phase, the first

phase I of the Shahid Behesti

tranche of 1.1 million tonnes

Port at Chahbahar in Iran was

of wheat was despatched from

inaugurated. This opening of

India to Afghanistan through the

the first phase of the Trilateral

Chahbahar port. Chahbahar has

Transport and Transit Corridor via

two terminals – Shahid Kalantari

Chahbahar in Iran to Afghanistan

and Shahid Behesti. The 2016

almost ends the economic

Trilateral Transport and Transit

dependence of this landlocked

Corridor Agreement between

country on its traditional

India and Iran give India right to

neighbours. From the port, Afghan

build and operate two terminals

city Zaranj is about 880 km

and five berths of the Chahbahar

which can be reached through the

port. India will handle the cargo

DR AMIT RANJAN The writer is a Visiting Research Fellow at Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore. His key areas of interest are Water Disputes, South Asian Politics and India’s Regional Policy.

for 10 years. The Memorandum of

According to a study carried out by the Asian Development Bank, an improved transportation system will enhance regional connectivity between Afghanistan and Central Asian countries

Understanding (MoU) also provides

that India has developed with the

legal frameworks to trade goods

Indian Ocean Region and South

with Afghanistan. India, Iran and

East Asia.” [1]

Afghanistan also signed MoU to

Afghan Lifeline

develop Chahbahar-ZahidanHajigak railway corridor. In

The port and the transit

February 2018, the first phase of

corridor are especially useful to

Behesti port was leased to India

Afghanistan which is dependent

for 18 months.

a lot on its neighbours like

Pakistan for economic reasons.

Explaining the connectivity

According to the World Bank data

through Trilateral Transport

of 2014, Iran is the top exporting

and Corridor via Chahbahar, on

partner of Afghanistan with an

23 May 2016, the Indian Prime

annual trade amount between

Minister Narendra Modi said, “Its

them being about US $1.49

reach could extend to the depths

billion. Export from Pakistan is

existing road link from Iran. From

of the Central Asian countries.

about US $1.3 billion. India’s

Zaranj, one can have a road access

When linked with the International

contribution is around US $100

to the cities like Herat, Kandahar,

North South Transport Corridor,

million. [2] Pakistan allows India

Kabul and Mazar-e-Sharif. The

it would touch South Asia at one

to use its territory to transport

port and corridor will also serve

end and Europe at another. And,

a short list of goods to India,

the economic purposes of the

studies show that as compared to

however, a large part of trade get

other two Central Asian countries–

the traditional sea routes, it could

affected due to absence of the

Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

bring down the cost and time of

land route between India and

According to a study carried out

the cargo trade to Europe by about

Afghanistan through Pakistan.

by the Asian Development Bank,

50 per cent. Over time, we could

To overcome this shortcoming,

an improved transportation system

even look to connect it with the

India and Afghanistan agreed to

will enhance regional connectivity

strong sea and land-based routes

carry out their trade through air

July 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

31

transit corridor LIFELINES

cargo. But air cargo has its

2016. Both India and Iran see

China [3] on Chahbahar- Gwadar

own limitations.

Gwadar differently in relation

port issue. This difference between

with Chahbahar. Iran has plans

Iran and India is because of the

Gwadar Rival

to export electricity to Gwadar.

relationships the two countries

At Chahbahar, India has a stiff

Iran and Pakistan have entered

have with China and Pakistan

trade and strategic competition

into a MoU for the convergence of

respectively. It is better that Iran

from Pakistan and China. Less

Chahbahar and Gwadar as two

and India iron out their differences

than 100 nautical miles from

“sister” ports. In March 2018,

over the issue.

Chahbahar is Gwadar port in

during his visit to Islamabad,

Balochistan province of Pakistan.

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad

This deep sea port is now a part

Zarif invited Pakistan and China

Sanctions And Future Of Chahbahar

of China-Pakistan Economic

to participate in the Chahbahar

In 1979, after the successful

Corridor. In 2015, it was leased

port project. Unlike Iran, India

revolution in Iran, the United

to China for 43 years. The port

does not have any plans to

States of America and many other

was inaugurated in November

cooperate with Pakistan and

countries imposed sanctions on Iran. In 1987, new sanctions

The port and the transit corridor are especially useful to Afghanistan which is dependent a lot on its neighbours like Pakistan for economic reasons

were imposed, in 1995, they were expanded, and in 2006, the United Nations Security Council under Resolution 1696 clamped a series of new sanctions. Over the years these sanctions had severely affected the Iranian economy.

IAEA Monitors Nuke Deal After series of bilateral and multilateral diplomatic negotiations, in 2015, the western countries agreed to lift most of the sanctions against Iran in a phased manner. In return, Iran agreed to a long-term deal on its nuclear programme with the United Nations Security Council’s Permanent Members (the USA, United Kingdom, China, Russia and France) and Germany. Under the deal, Iran agreed to limit its sensitive nuclear activities and allow international inspectors to inspect its nuclear sites. [4] The deal came into effect after it was ratified by the United Nations.

It ensured that Iran would not take any steps to create a

Indian Prime Minister and Afghanistan President shake hands with Iran President.

32

July 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

nuclear arsenal. Since then, the International Atomic Energy

Agency has been monitoring the

Iran began diplomatic relationship

Despite such differences in

Iran’s nuclear programme.

in 1950. Although India did not

opinions and political confusions,

welcome Iranian revolution of

political leadership from the two

However, since the assumption

1979, their bilateral relationship

countries have remained engaged.

of the office of the President of the

did not suffer due to it. In 1990s,

In May 2016, Modi paid a visit

USA by Donald Trump, the deal

the two countries came together

to Iran. In February 2018, the

was under target. Eventually, in

and supported the Northern

Iranian President Rouhani visited

May 2018, Trump withdrew USA’s

Alliance in its fight against

India. During both visits, India

signature from the Iran deal. This

Taliban. In 2007, India welcomed

and Iran signed a number of

has created a foreign policy related

Iran’s association as an observer

bilateral agreements. In May 2018,

ruckus in many capitals of the

with, now defunct body, South

after Trump withdrew from the

world, mainly those who signed the Iranian nuclear deal in 2015.

Fortunately, most of the US partners do not buy Trump’s reason to withdraw from the nuclear deal. They are also not comfortable with Trump’s call to reinstate sanctions against Iran.

In light of such developments, a fear expressed in the Indian media on the future of India-Iran relations and Chahbahar link is normal. Allaying such fears, the External Affairs Minister of India

Allaying such fears, the External Affairs Minister of India Sushma Swaraj said that India will follow the sanctions imposed by the United Nations and not ones levelled by individual countries

Sushma Swaraj said that India will

Iran’s nuclear deal, Zarif was in India.

Collective Happiness Chahbahar is a Persian word which means “A place where all four seasons of the year will be spring”. With its coming into full operation, the port will certainly bring something what spring brings to Afghanistan and Central Asian countries–happiness. It will help them to overcome their isolation and connect with the sea port to become a part of international trade.

follow the sanctions imposed by

Asian Association of Regional

the United Nations and not ones

Cooperation. In between these

As the success of Chahbahar

levelled by individual countries.

years, there were some patches

lies on India, it should resolutely

This shows that India is not

of bad times between the two

support Iran instead of falling

going to follow Trump’s theatrics;

countries. For example, detaining

into any kind of Trumpian trap.

instead it will protect its own

of the Indian container in 2013 for

The port will extend the reach of

regional and economic interests.

technical reasons in Iran. Then in

India and help it to increase its

March 2018, during his Pakistan

economic activities in Central

visit, Zarif extended support to the

and West Asia.

India-Iran Entente Cordiale Looking into the past, India and

right of self-determination for the people from Kashmir valley.

Reference Notes:

Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India ‘Remarks by Prime Minister at Chahbahar Connectivity event (23 May 2016)’. http://www.mea.gov.in/Speeches-Statements.htm?dtl/26838/remarks+by+prime+minister+at+chahbahar+connectivity+event+may+23+2016. Accessed on 29 May 2018.

[2] Ankit Panda, “India, Afghanistan Plan Air Link to Bypass Pakistan for Trade” The Diplomat, 6 December 2016. http://thediplomat.com/2016/12/india-afghanistan-plan-air-link-to-bypass-pakistan-for-trade/. Accessed on 21 February 2017.

[3] Sabeena Siddiqi , “ Comparing Gwadar and Chahbahar Ports: rivals or sisters?” Asia Times, 7 December 2018. http://www. atimes.com/comparing-gwadar-chabahar-port/. Accessed on 28 May 2018.

[4] ‘Iran nuclear deal: Key details’ BBC, 8 May 2018. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-33521655. Accessed on 28 May 2018.

[1]

July 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

33

territorial disputes STRATEGIC TALKS

CHINA’S UNDULY ENGAGEMENTS

One of the possible areas of cooperation which has been identified is South Asia. By the virtue of being the largest country in the region and the cultural affinity, South Asia is considered as India’s backyard. However, China’s moves in the region have been noticeable in the past years. This is worrisome for India as its ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy has not yielded the expected results.

T

he informal summit

China relations suffered a major

is one of the compelling reasons

between Indian

setback due to the 73-days long

for the four democracies (Australia,

Prime Minister

standoff at Doklam. This standoff

India, Japan and the United States)

Narendra Modi and

only contributed to the ever-

to revive the quadrilateral security

Chinese President Xi

increasing trust deficit and made

dialogue in 2017. When, in 2007,

Jinping at Wuhan,

India ponder over possibilities of

the idea of a quadrilateral security

China on April 27-28, 2018 has

inching closer to the US and Japan

dialogue was first mooted by the

injected a new vigour and optimism

in military and defence terms.

Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo

in India’s relationship with China.

34

Abe, China became jittery and sent

The informal summit came in the

Apparently, China’s assertiveness

demarche to all the four members

wake of growing differences between

in its territorial disputes and its

of the proposed grouping. The

the two Asian giants. In 2017, India-

wilful neglect of international laws

quadrilateral security dialogue died

July 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

a quick death due to Australia’s

Both Ministers held bilateral talks

reluctance to become a part of

with their respective counterparts.

something which was even remotely

All these visits were seen as

perceived as an anti-China coalition.

preparatory visits to the informal

However, in 2018, the situation

summit. That was the first time

is changed. Now Australia seems

that any Indian leader held informal

to be playing a proactive role in

summit with a Chinese President.

reviving the quadrilateral security

A meeting without agenda allowed

dialogue with Japan taking the

both sides to delve into possible

centre stage. However, this time

areas of cooperation and potential

India is making calculated moves in

challenges with more flexibility.

institutionalising the quadrilateral

DR RAHUL MISHRA

Change of the government in

South Asia – India’s Backyard

India, as also the top bureaucratic

One of the possible areas of

leadership in the Indian Ministry of

cooperation which has been

External Affairs, massive Chinese

identified is South Asia. By the

challenges to Modi’s ‘Neighbourhood

virtue of being the largest country in

Policy’, and China’s apprehension of

the region and the cultural affinity,

India getting aligned with the United

South Asia is considered as India’s

States to contain China led both

backyard. However, China’s moves

countries to accommodate each

in the region have been noticeable

other’s interests. It started with

in the past years. This is worrisome

issuing a statement to disengage

for India as its ‘Neighbourhood First’

the troops at Doklam on August 28,

policy has not yielded the expected

2017. While the terms of reference

results. When Modi assumed

were never disclosed, Modi visited

power in 2014, he invited all the

Xiamen, China to attend the BRICS

SAARC (South Asian Association

(Brazil, Russia, India, China, South

for Regional Cooperation) leaders

Africa) in September 2017.

to his swearing-in ceremony. It was

security dialogue mechanism.

lauded much by the international Efforts to manage differences

community as it was seen as a

between the two countries began

landmark step to resolve differences

to take shape afterwards. Foreign

with Pakistan which has obstructed

Secretary Vijay Gokhale assumed

the functioning of the SAARC.

power and visited China in February

However, while the problems with

2018, which was followed by the

Pakistan have been persistent, India

visit of National Security Advisor,

is facing issues with Nepal and

Ajit Doval to China in April 2018.

Maldives too.

In the same month, External and Defence Minister Nirmala

India’s Concerns / China’s OBOR Strategy

Sitharaman, in a bid to strengthen

China’s support to Pakistan

dialogue, visited China to attend

has been a major challenge for

Foreign ministers’ meeting of the

India in the South Asian region.

Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

China’s unflinching support to

(SCO) and SCO annual defence

Pakistan is often seen as a part

ministerial meeting respectively.

of Chinese strategy to box India

Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj

July 2018

The writer is a Senior Lecturer at the University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur.

Prior to joining UM, he worked as a Consultant with the Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India. Before that, Dr Mishra worked with the ICWA, New Delhi as a Research Fellow. Recipient of the 2015 Asia Fellowship of the East-West Center in Washington D.C., Dr Mishra was a Researcher at IDSA, New Delhi for four years.

Between 2011 and 2013, he had worked with S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore and the National University of Singapore.

inside the South Asian region thereby dwarfing its growth at the international arena. China’s refusal to back the Indian and the US resolution on terming Pakistani terrorist Masood Azhar an international terrorist is just one example of how closely China has aligned its policies with Pakistan.

India’s relations with Pakistan have been severed due to continuous targeting of India through statesponsored terrorism. India has been firm on its stand on cross-border terrorism. It has maintained that it is willing to have a dialogue with Pakistan, but “terror and talks cannot go together”.

With the initiation of One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative,

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

35

territorial disputes STRATEGIC TALKS

several South Asian countries

of the Chinese presence in Maldives

been a better option than engaging

seem to be opening up to the idea

and Beijing’s efforts to influence

India in its own backyard. China

of greater Chinese presence in the

Maldivian politics.

has started working on these lines

region. Two South Asian leaders

so much so that on June 18 Chinese

(Pakistan and Sri Lanka) also

India’s relations with Nepal began

Ambassador to India, Luo Zhaohui

attended the Belt and Road Forum

to deteriorate in 2015 when India

proposed to have a trilateral meeting

in Beijing in May 2018. India has

imposed economic blockade in

among India-China-Pakistan.

not yet endorsed OBOR due to its

response to the adoption of the

reservations against the China-

new constitution which was

Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

discriminating against the Madhesis.

New Avenues of Cooperation?

which encroaches into the Indian

It impacted the Nepalese economy

Despite India-China competition

Territory. This is one of the six land

which irked the Nepalese leadership

in the South Asian region, both

corridors under OBOR and passes

and people alike. With the change

countries are attempting to find

through the India-Pakistan disputed

in leadership in Nepal, Khadga

a common ground. India and

territory. India has, time and again,

Prasad Sharma Oli came to power

China are keen to work for the

maintained that it opposes China’s

again, who is tilted toward China.

development of countries such as

activities in the disputed territory.

Oli visited India in April 2018

Afghanistan and Nepal. During the

Ministry of External Affairs has

and pledged “to take bilateral ties

informal summit, it was declared

maintained that “Government’s

to newer heights”. He has been

that India and China will be working

It has maintained that it is willing to have a dialogue with Pakistan, but “terror and talks cannot go together”

Afghanistan. They will train Afghan civil servants jointly. This is mainly because both India and China have stakes and interest in a stable Afghanistan. China’s proposal to

position on the so-called CPEC has

involved in a balancing act between

invite India for collaboration in

been consistently conveyed to the

India and China. After attempting

Afghanistan is definitely a step

Chinese side. It has been pointed out

to assure India of its desire to have

forward in India-China ties, and

to them [Chinese] that Pakistan has

cordial relations, Oli visited China

must have created ripples in

been in illegal occupation of parts

on June 19. During the visit, he

Islamabad which has been insistent

of the Indian state of Jammu and

signed a score of agreements

on not letting India play any

Kashmir since 1947. Government

that endorse several projects

substantial role in Afghanistan.

has conveyed to the Chinese side,

under OBOR.

including at the highest level, its

36

in the field of capacity building in

Given India’s reluctance to be a

concerns about their activities in

China and India’s South Asian

part of OBOR, Chinese side has

PoK and asked them to cease

neighbours are aware of India’s

also proposed to build India-China-

these activities.”

weight in the region. South Asian

Nepal economic corridor. It was

countries are mindful of the fact

proposed after the talks between

India’s South Asian Neighbours

that while they can attempt to

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang

China’s influence in Sri Lanka and

balance India through China but

Yi and Nepalese Foreign Minister

Maldives is also growing by the day.

it is impossible to surpass India in

Pradeep Kumar Gyawali in April

Sri Lanka had to give Hambantota

entirety. So is the case with China.

2018. After the talks, Wang Yi

Port to China on a 99-year lease as

China’s overtures in South Asia

stated, “Let me say China and

it was unable to repay the loan. This

and other assertive postures drew

Nepal have agreed on long term

move has the potential to give China

India closer to the quadrilateral

vision of a multi-dimensional cross

further access of the Indian Ocean

countries. For China, India-US

Himalaya connectivity network...We

Region. India-Maldives relations

alignment would have been a

believe that such a well-developed

have also hit a roadblock because

disaster. Therefore, what could have

connectivity network can also

July 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

create conditions for an economic

expand its sphere of influence. This

corridor connecting China,

corridor will further allow China

Nepal and India. We hope that

to dump its cheap goods to the

such cooperation will contribute

Nepal and Indian markets. It also

development and prosperity for all

serves Nepal’s interest which is

the three countries.”

landlocked. This will allow flow of tourists and connect Nepal

The idea of this trilateral economic

hinterland to India and

corridor is not new. It was first

China by land.

mooted by former Nepalese Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal in

While the South Asian region and

2010. Being a landlocked country,

precisely Nepal is in dire need of

the idea of the trilateral corridor

infrastructural development, India

was borne out of Nepal’s desire to

will not accept the proposal readily.

be an economic bridge between

In fact, this is not in best suited

India and China. As described by

to India’s interests. The corridor

Post Basnet in an article published

does not bring any tangible benefits

with the Strategic Analysis in 2013, “the trilateral economic cooperation has its roots in the concept of a vibrant bridge between the two powerhouses that comes from Nepal’s quest for economic growth as Kathmandu was the principal entry point in trans-Himalayan

to India. Moreover, accepting

the 18th century.”

one project under OBOR would mean giving legitimacy to all the

While China and Nepal have been

projects. Nonetheless, there is

upbeat about the corridor, India

an urgent need for India to start

has not yet accepted the proposal

collaborating on the developmental

yet and in all likelihood, will

projects in South Asia. India

not endorse the idea. Had three

needs to expeditiously devise and

countries gone ahead with the

implement its own infrastructure

economic corridor in 2010, it would

and connectivity strategy in the

have had got different reaction from

sub-continent.

the Indian side. In fact, now the with India’s commitment are bleak

In this context, there are several options for India: First, as the largest South Asian country in the region, India should go for bilateral projects in Nepal. However, what it needs to make sure of is the timely implementation. BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India,

The quadrilateral security dialogue died a quick death due to Australia’s reluctance to become a part of something which was even remotely perceived as an anti-China coalition

trade until the middle of

chances of constructing a corridor

interests. Letting China into its own backyard would be a strategic mistake for India. India and China are still dealing with the protracted boundary dispute with frequent standoffs along the border. In addition to this, China has not yet addressed India’s concerns on OBOR.

Way Forward India’s position in the Indian sub-

as China would be labelling it under

continent is weakening is evident

OBOR. China is also undertaking

from the fact that India and Bhutan

several connectivity projects

are the only two countries left that

in Nepal. One such proposed

have not approved of China’s OBOR.

project is a rail project between Lhasa and Kathmandu for which

Collaborating in Nepal with China

feasibility studies are underway.

would not be easy for India. Before

This is mainly to keep a check

taking such a step, it is crucial

on Tibetan refugees to Nepal and

for India to safeguard its own

July 2018

Nepal) sub-regional initiative has met with a deadlock and needs to overcome with intervention of the top political leadership. India does not have a credible image when it comes to speedy execution of the projects. India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway is a case in point.

Second, calling for other countries to collaborate in South Asia such as Japan would be in India’s interest and seems achievable. India and Japan are already cooperating in Africa and jointly developing AsiaAfrica Economic Corridor. Given Oli’s pro-China stance and China’s unwillingness to address India’s concerns about CPEC, it remains to be seen how China and Nepal will be accommodating India’s interests and ensure equality and transparency, and how India and China will find common ground for cooperation in Afghanistan.

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

37

spiritual brunt TIBETAN CAUSE

k n a h ‘T You ’ a i Ind

THE SIDELINING OF DALAI LAMA As an option to view China through the lenses of animosity becomes too costly with the current developments, the Modi government seems to take a middle path between Dalai Lama and China. Giving away the Dalai Lama or the Tibet card might bring some substantial conclusion to the border question which has been going on for years though, might give China the upper hand in the negotiations. Yet, a conclusion to the India-China Boundary negotiation would be a positive development, which the Modi government is aiming for.

38

July 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

A

sia, since long, has been witnessing power contestations between two of its beacons due

to border tensions, trade, and the Tibetan cause. The Tibet question, since decades, has been a thorn in the flesh between India and China while the former still hosts the exiled spiritual leader of Tibet, demanding autonomy since its invasion in 1951 by China. While the frequent conflicts between both the countries saw China using its economic and military might, India never failed to use the sensitive ‘Dalai Lama Card.’ But as the power politics of the region is changing, the fragile ChinaIndia ties demand strengthening.

This visibly is influencing India’s

policies towards the Tibetans-in-

in fleeing of the Dalai Lama to

exile while the community and

India. The spiritual leader was

most importantly, Dalai Lama face

welcomed and hosted by the then

the brunt of it. A valid question

Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru

to be asked hence, has India

with his followers while many

abandoned the Tibetan cause and

Indian leaders criticized China’s

sidelined Dalai Lama?

aggressive and expansionist

Annexation of Tibet

behaviour in Tibet. This remained a hidden matter of contention

History can be traced back to

during the 1962 War between both

the British era when the colonial

the Asian powers apart from the

powers chose to lay their eastern

border tensions and conflicts. Till

boundary as the disputed

date, the Dalai Lama issue has

McMahon line. This development

been a major tension–structuring

occurred at the Shimla Conference

and guiding the India-China

which proceeded without the

relations. With such a disputed

complete signatures of the Chinese

backdrop, China expressed grave

representative. An act to keep

concerns during Dalai Lama’s

The major shift visible in India’s policies towards the exiled Tibetans came during the ‘Thank You India’ event

MRITTIKA GUHA SARKAR The writer has pursued Masters in International Relations from Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), New Delhi. She is also an intern at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) working for the East Asia Centre and previously has interned with the think tank India Policy Foundation (IPF). She wishes to advance her career in research with the primary area of focus being International Politics especially in the East Asia region.

visit to Tawang in April 2017 alarming Beijing. Where India has frequently expressed Dalai Lama being an honoured guest in India and remains unrestricted to go wherever he desires, Beijing has aggressively threatened India with terrible consequences if the Tibetan spiritual leader gets to visit

approach towards Dalai Lama

the region. Similar incidents of

and the exiles giving birth to

tension occurred when hundreds of

many questions. Moreover, the

Tibet as the buffer zone between

Tibetans-in-exile marched through

spiritual leader shared the stage

India and China, the colonial

central Delhi before the lighting of

with the Indian president in 2016

legacy was soon passed on to

the Olympic Torch back in 2008.

in Rashtrapati Bhavan while the

independent India with additional

Moreover, the spiritual leader

US Ambassador Richard Varma

confusions of China refusing to

shared the stage with the Indian

could visit the sensitive region of

accept the line considering it

President in 2016 at Rashtrapati

Tawang for the first time last year.

unfair. The line put Arunachal

Bhavan while the US Ambassador

The Tibetan Government-in-exile

Pradesh and Sikkim in the Indian

Richard Varma could visit the

leader Lobsang Sangay was also

Territory yet again with a disputed

sensitive region of Tawang for the

invited to Prime Minister Narendra

Tawang considered to be ‘South

first time last year. TGIE’s leader

Modi’s swearing ceremony in 2014

Tibet’ by the Chinese. Yet as both

Lobsang Sangay was also invited

hinting at the importance of the

countries sought independence

to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s

Tibetan community in India and

from imperialist powers, they

swearing ceremony in 2014 hinting

Dalai Lama for India.

experienced a very short-lived

at the importance of the Tibetan

period of peace or the era of

community in India and Dalai

Signs Of Shift

‘Hindi-Chini-Bhai-Bhai’. By 1950

Lama for India.

Till recent times India had a

as PLA invaded Tibet, the region

very favorable stance towards

saw massive unrest and uprisings

Yet, the Doklam incident seems

Dalai Lama and the Tibetans in

with the Lhasa rebellion resulting

to have changed the Indian

Exile. From becoming a global

July 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

39

spiritual brunt TIBETAN CAUSE

figure, Dalai Lama has had a

The major shift visible in India’s

to be held in New Delhi’s Tyagraj

huge fan following in India with

policies towards the exiled

Stadium inviting many eminent

policies quite supporting their

Tibetans came during the

personalities. Yet the event

exile. Yet, the Doklam incident

‘Thank You India’ event which

was shifted to the Tsuglakhang

seems to have changed the Indian

was supposed to be held in late

temple in Dharamshala in

approach towards Dalai Lama

March/April but was shifted to

a very short span of time.

and the exiles giving birth to

Dharamshala due to officially

Moreover, the Cabinet decided

many questions. While the Indian

unknown reasons. This event

to send notes to the Central and

government seems to be rethinking

marked the 60th year of Dalai

the State governments including

its views on the Tibetan issue,

Lama’s stay in India while aiming

all the ministries to avoid any

this development has come as a

to thank India for the support

government functionaries or

surprise for the people owing to

towards him and his followers

events planned by The Tibetan

Dalai Lama’s favourable approach

over six decades. It was planned

Government in Exile for the

earlier by the Indian government.

to be a grand occasion, which was

months of March and April.

Though the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) of India refused to have any knowledge of the above, it wasn’t coincidental that just after Vijay Gokhale, the new Foreign Secretary asking the high-end officials not to attend any event by the TGIE, travelled to Beijing. While most of the ministers and officials from TGIE refuse to break silence, it seems that India is more interested to improve relations with China and doesn’t want to meddle in its internal matters where the Tibetan refugees were always a matter of contention between India and China since the Dalai Lama escaped to India.

The LAC Unresolved The Doklam incident though not escalating into a war has let the Modi government analyze China’s influence and its growing economic and military might, especially in South Asia. Major connectivity projects by or including China such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Bangladesh-ChinaIndia-Myanmar (BCIM), etc. have been garnering world wide support and a win-win atmosphere around the globe. The Modi government, henceforth, is seemingly trying

40

July 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

to bury the past while trying to

would want to resolve border

to China with goodwill hoping

accept differences and resolve

issues. As a result, the possibility

for both the countries to come

disputes. Most importantly, this

rises that India would take a step

together and work in different

development occurs when India–

forward to resolve the boundary

fields potentially concluding in

China border disputes hang in

dispute even if it takes to sideline

a very vulnerable zone covering

mutual development. Moreover,

the Dalai Lama. This argument

earlier this year His Holiness also

was supported during Modi’s

cancelled his visit to Sikkim lest

informal meeting with Xi Jinping

he irritates China. It is important

in Wuhan city, just a few days

to note that Sikkim borders the

after the ‘Thank You India’ event.

Doklam plateau, the same place

The meeting speeded up the efforts

which experienced the 73-day

at a rapprochement; the two

stand-off last year with hundreds

the 3,488 km long Line of Actual Control (LAC). Both the countries are yet unable to resolve their boundary question even after more than half a century of conflicts and 20 rounds of border talks.

Yet as both countries sought independence from imperialist powers, they experienced a very short-lived period of peace or the era of ‘Hindi-Chini-Bhai-Bhai’

of Indian and Chinese soldiers confronting.

The recent events have shown that India-China ties are enhancing over common openings for growth and development. The two Asian giants are also working towards

Post-Doklam Development Though little came out of the ‘dramatic’ 20th round of talks between Special Representatives (SRs) of India and China, it is

easing political ties. They are

leaders discussed their common

reviving many joint ventures

interests outweighing their differences. The meeting moreover emphasised on the everlasting

mock operations etc. Both the

China, while concentrating

was largely due to the backdrop

on mutually beneficial cooperation

discussions between Doval and

and common development.

nations are, hence, showing signs of leaving behind their age-old differences to proceed for mutual

Yang that the two countries were Doklam. An important takeaway

for instance working against terrorism with counter-terrorism

friendship between India and

imperative to understand that it

able to resolve the deadlock at

which were earlier cancelled,

development. As an option to

Dalai Wants To Return

view China through the lenses

As India changes its strategy

of animosity becomes too costly

from this round of talks remains

towards the Tibetans-in-exile,

that Yang Jiechi currently holds

the Dalai Lama too seems to be

the rank of the State Councilor

expressing his wishes to return to

which is a few notches higher

Beijing. Earlier this year in April,

take a middle path between Dalai

than that of the Foreign Minister.

post the ‘Thank You India’ event,

Lama and China. Giving away

He also has been elected to the

Dalai Lama stated that “Tibet can

the Dalai Lama or the Tibet card

powerful 25-member Politburo

remain a part of China as long as

might bring some substantial

of the ruling Communist Party

China respects Tibetans’ culture

conclusion to the border question

of China at its recent 19th party

and heritage.” He expressed a

going on for years though, might

Congress. That he continues to be

desire to unite with China wishing

give China the upper hand in the

the Special Representative for the

to develop Tibet, a major shift from

negotiations. Yet, a conclusion

India-China boundary talks shows

his earlier policies demanding

to the India-China Boundary

the importance of India, as a

independence and autonomy on

negotiation would be a positive

power in China’s foreign policies

many different occasions. He,

development, which the Modi

and furthermore the reasons it

moreover, supported Modi’s visit

government is aiming for.

July 2018

with the current developments, the Modi government seems to

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

41

drifting neighbourhood BANGLADESH COMPLEXITIES

NOT ALL HUNKY-DORY India has been concerned about growing Sino-Bangladesh bond because of the security implications. Bangladesh, however, claims that relationship with China is purely economic and India need not be worried. Considering the economic investments China is making in Bangladesh, Will Bangladesh be able to keep itself aloof and withstand the pressure at times of contestation between India and China?

B

angladesh is considered only bright spot in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government’s

‘Neighbourhood First’ policy which is facing jolts. The NDA government initiated the ‘Neighbourhood First’ with much pomp by inviting heads of the governments of all South Asian countries at the oath-taking ceremony of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Unlike, other neighbours who welcomed new government’s move, initially, Bangladesh was cautious in embracing New Delhi’s call. Bangladesh’s caution could be assumed from Speaker of the National Parliament attending PM Modi’s oath-taking in place of Head of Government. The reason behind Bangladesh’s hesitance was the issue of illegal migration raised by NDA during the electoral campaigning.

Uncertain Future India and Bangladesh relationship have made significant progress since then. The relationship between the two countries has been warm and friendly. Peaceful resolution of the boundary disputes talks of the bonhomie between India and Bangladesh. Yet, inspite of warmth, there is a feeling of uncertainty about the future of the relationship.

The uncertainty of future arises out of the fluctuating nature of the relationship. The nature of bilateral relations shifts with the change of ruling party in Bangladesh. The major fault-line of this relationship has been its

42

July 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

dependence on the attitude of the

under Bangladesh, Bhutan, India,

political party in power. Ruling

and Nepal (BBIN)l sub-regional

Awami League is considered

arrangement with an eye on

India friendly, while its rival

creating a seamless connectivity

Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)

in the BBIN countries, however,

is famous for pursuing antagonism

that too is facing trouble following

towards India. The divided polity

Bhutan’s objection.

of Bangladesh in respect to the country’s relationship has made

Outreach To BNP

the relationship complex. Frankly,

Enabling bilateral relationship

lack of consensus among the

free of the internal politicking is

political parties towards country’s

crucial for its future. Bridges with

relationship with India has harmed

all the political parties popularly

the relationship. Precisely, it is the

suggested as a prescription in

prominent complexity prevailing

achieving the goal, effectiveness

with Bangladesh.

of this mired in doubts. As a test

case, India invited Begum Khaleda

Connectivity Hesitation / Reluctant Approach The political parties in Bangladesh

JOYEETA BHATTACHARJEE The writer is a senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. She specializes in India’s foreign policy, conflict resolution and gender, and regularly comments on India’s neighborhood policy.

Zia, BNP chairperson with full state honour in 2012. Such measure hardly yielded any result, contrarily,

are careful in their approach

Begum Zia refused to meet Indian

the bilateral relationship will

towards India, fearing political

President Pranab Mukherjee

come handy in addressing these complexities.

As a test case, India invited Begum Khaleda Zia, BNP chairperson with full State honour in 2012. Yet Begum Zia refused to meet Indian President Pranab Mukherjee during his visit to Bangladesh in 2013

‘Big Brother’ Complex India and Bangladesh relationship is unique in the neighbourhood.

With Bangladesh, India not only shares longest border that runs for 4,000 km but also has a commonality of culture, history, and language. The two countries were one before the partition of India in

ramification back home, which

during his visit to Bangladesh in

1947.Post-1947, Bangladesh was

restricts them from taking bold

2013. The experience suggests

the eastern wing of Pakistan and

steps. The classic example is the

solution to complexities demand

it became an independent country

issue of overland transit to India.

innovation and this required deep

after liberation from Pakistan

Technically, Bangladesh agreed to

understanding of the issues in the

supported by India in 1971.These

provide overland transit to India for

bilateral relations.

features serve as both strength and weakness of this relationship. The

transportation of goods from the rest of the country to the northeast

The issues that generally tend to

commonalities are strength as it

region via Bangladesh following an

dominate the popular discourses in

often leads to a feeling of closeness

agreement in 1972. Awami League

the bilateral relation include water-

amongst the two countries. On

promised to provide the transit

sharing of major rivers, border

the other, it works as a weakness

facility in 1996 but suspended it

killings, cross-border smuggling,

since it causes rise in expectations.

due to opposition’s protest. The

illegal migration, religious

Additionally, commonalities,

issue of transit remained pending

radicalism, the rise of influence of

especially between two asymmetric

and is likely to be addressed

China. Holistic understanding of

neighbours often create a feeling

43

drifting neighbourhood BANGLADESH COMPLEXITIES

Bangladesh share 54 common rivers. Hence, sharing of river water is important for the two countries. Bangladesh being lower riparian has been conscious of the development upstream. India and Bangladesh have adopted a cooperative approach to resolve the issue of water sharing. The Ganges Water Treaty signed in 1996 bespeaks this attitude.

Presently, India and Bangladesh are discussing water sharing of the Teesta River. India and Bangladesh have agreed on a draft agreement. The agreement was formally signed during former PM Manmohan Singh’s visit to Bangladesh in 2011. The signing of the agreement was suspended at the last moment due to the objection raised by West Bengal Chief Minister Mamta Banerjee to of insecurity, specifically, in

Myanmar visit in September 2017

the smaller nation which feels

is a snapshot of the expectations

intimidated by the bigger nation.

of Bangladesh from India. Around seven lakh Rohingyas, an ethnic

India and Bangladesh relationship

community, mostly Muslim, of the

are not averse to these

Rakhine State in Myanmar, took

complexities. The big brother

refuge in Bangladesh following the

syndrome, the problem popularly

outbreak of violence in their home

described is one of the major

in August 2017.

criticality of the relationship. In

pending to be signed since 2011.

Delay in the signing of Teesta agreement emerged as an irritant causing popular antagonism towards India in Bangladesh.

Smuggling Again, border killing is an issue that ignites popular sentiment in Bangladesh. The problem of

Bangladesh, much of the popular

Expectations

thinking towards India is often

Analysis of the key issues in the

driven by this psychology. Again,

bilateral relationship will highlight

there is wide recognition of India’s

the expectation of Bangladesh

importance, both in the region and

to be treated as special and with

smuggler. Deepening of border

in the global arena, hence there

compassion. India being a separate

management cooperation between

is popular expectation that India

sovereign entity, having own

India and Bangladesh significantly

should stand by the country in

domestic and foreign compulsions,

addressed the issue and number

the problems it faces. Bangladesh

often prompts the country to take

of deaths in the border decreased

expects magnanimity from India and

a different view than expected by

substantially. Bangladesh is

any little deviation from this result in

Bangladesh and such situation often

demanding reduction in the

resentment, giving way to anti-India

leads to conflicts.

number of deaths to zero. Hence,

rhetoric. Resentment in Bangladesh

44

the draft. Hence, the agreement is

border killing is linked with the problem of cattle smuggling, most of the people killed are cattle

there is a need for addressing the

over PM Modi’s non-reference to the

Bangladesh, being riverine country

issue of cattle smuggling. Any

Rohingya refugee crisis during his

water, ignites emotion. India and

step to control smuggling of cattle

July 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

raises hue and cry in Bangladesh.

economic reasons. Hence, changing

for India because of the contiguous

The reasons: Smuggled cattle are

of political realities could not

nature of the border, which is

not only a major source of protein

disturb the tradition. Popular

porous and has cross-border

in that country but the hides and

perception for the reason behind

familial and social connections

bones are contributing to that

migration includes economic,

leading to possible ramifications

country’s flourishing trade in

natural disasters, religious

across the border. Radicalism in

leather and bone-china industry.

persecution, etc.

Bangladesh challenges the idea of

Any measures in curbing the cattle

a secular Bangladesh, where the

smuggling indirectly hamper the

Chinese Influence

supply chain of these industries.

Another issue dominating the

radicals are against the country’s

Continuation of the smuggling is

bilateral relationship is growing

relationship with India, a secular

a major threat to India’s security

influence of China in Bangladesh.

country. The radicals tend to

because this involves the

China is an important economic

encourage anti-India sentiments in

well-organised criminal network.

and developmental partner of

Bangladesh. Besides, the radicals

This network is not limited to cattle

Bangladesh. Besides, two countries

tend to have a close connection

smuggling only and engages in the

have developed close defence

with countries like Pakistan, a

smuggling of narcotics, fake Indian

ties. Counter-balancing India has

country infamous for infiltrating

currencies, human trafficking.

been the primary objective behind

militants into India. In the past,

majority is Muslims. Again, the

Some media reports also indicated cattle smuggling being a major

The radicals tend to encourage anti-India sentiments in Bangladesh. Besides, the radicals tend to have a close connection with countries like Pakistan, a country infamous for infiltrating militants into India

source of revenues of the militant organisations.

Illegal Migration Illegal migration from Bangladesh is a major point of irritation between India and Bangladesh. There is no definite number of people crossing

Bangladesh’s bonhomie with

Bangladesh was used by Pakistan-

into India. Some of the Border

China. India has been concerned

based militant groups as a transit

States like Assam are claiming shift

about growing Sino-Bangladesh

for terror in India. The current

in its demography following cross-

bond because of the security

government in Bangladesh have

border migration. Bangladesh has

implications. Bangladesh, however,

taken actions against the anti-India

been on denial and any discourse

claims relationship with China is

groups and strengthened security

on the issue in India raises concern

purely economic and India need

cooperation. The rise of radicals

in that country. Bangladesh’s

not be worried. Considering the

in Bangladesh demands

attitude towards migration leads

economic investments China

close monitoring.

to speculation about the possible

is making in Bangladesh, Will

reason. The popular rationale

Bangladesh be able to keep itself

Enhancing cooperation with

forwarded supporting Bangladesh

aloof and withstand the pressure at

Bangladesh is important for India

reluctance to recognise the problem

times of contestation between

and this will require continuous

is that for an over-populous

India and China?

nurturing of the relationship.

and impoverished country like

Security cooperation between

Bangladesh; migration gives an

Radicalism

opportunity to offload some of its

Rising radicalism in Bangladesh

sustained improvements that

population. Besides, historically

tend to complicate the relationship.

have grown significantly. Besides,

trends suggest there have been

The surge in radicalism threatens

there is a necessity for a deeper

flow of migration from the region,

the stability of Bangladesh. It is

understanding of the sentiments

now Bangladesh; to rest of India for

also a cause of security concern

in Bangladesh.

India and Bangladesh will require

July 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

45

neighbourhood first CHINA’S GAMBIT

INDIA’S EXTENDED NEIGHBOURHOOD POLICY Given the events of the recent months, it may be concluded that India and China have more reasons to cooperate than compete in the South Asian region. While China has been transferring technology and weapons to Pakistan for the sole purpose of keeping India preoccupied in the region, it has realised that using Pakistan against India will not be advantageous to its relations with India.

46

July 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

C

hina’s growing clout in South Asia has been worrisome for India. India is the largest country in the region in terms of population, size and economy.

However, China is the largest trading partner of most of the South Asian countries. When Prime Minister Narendra Modi assumed power, one of his foreign policy priorities was to revive the SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) and improve relations with India’s immediate neighbours.

He introduced ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy. In addition to this, the focus was also on India’s extended neighbours in the East. In 2014, Modi Administration rechristened the Look East Policy to Act East Policy. He emphasised on regional

integration and India’s increased role in maintaining stability of the region.

India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ In 2014, Prime Minister Modi made a clean break with the past and invited all the SAARC leaders to his swearing-in ceremony. Not only this, he started his foreign tours, Bhutan being first in June 2014 and later in August 2014, he visited Nepal. By the end of 2015, he had visited Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan. In June 2016, he visited Afghanistan too. He has not yet visited Maldives.

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi assumed power, one of his foreign policy priorities was to revive the SAARC India’s outreach to its immediate neighbours was received well in the region. He enthusiastically laid out India’s revamped South Asia policy in his speech at 18th SAARC Summit in Kathmandu in November 2014. He remarked, “As neighbours, we should also be together in good and bad times… For India, our vision for the region rests on five pillars – trade, investment, assistance, cooperation in every area, contacts between our people – and, all through seamless connectivity.” It is evident from the speech that India had a clear vision for its South Asia policy.

India’s efforts to strengthen connectivity and infrastructure within the region were also noticeable. BBINMVA (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal- Motor Vehicle Agreement), signed on June 15, 2015, was a case

in point. In an unprecedented move, in December 2015, Prime Minister Modi even made a surprise visit to Lahore and met Pakistan’s former Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif. The last Indian leader to visit Pakistan was former Prime Minister of India, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, to attend 12th SAARC Summit in 2004. In a bid to inject a new life to India’s sub-regional endeavours, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj attended the 15th Ministerial Meeting of the BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) in August 2017. Such efforts were perceived as moves to counter Chinese increasing influence in India’s own backyard.

However, despite such efforts, Prime Minister Modi’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy lost momentum. Shortly, after his stopover in Pakistan, in January 2016, Pathankot air base was attacked by Pakistan-based terror outfit, Jaish-e-Mohammad. In September 2016, Indian Army brigade headquarters in Uri suffered another terrorist attack. The series of events derailed India-Pakistan relations.

Since then, India has maintained that India is willing to have a dialogue with Pakistan but “terrors and talks cannot go together.”

India’s relations with Nepal also suffered a blow due to India’s [unofficial] economic blockade in the Terai region. The blockade was imposed mainly because of Nepal Government’s promulgation of the new constitution which was seen as discriminatory against the Madheshis.

The blockade affected Nepal hugely as most of its petroleum imports were from India. Other supplies were also disrupted. This was criticised by the Nepali government that began to cosy up to the Chinese. India’s

July 2018

SANA HASHMI The writer is a regular commentator on China’s foreign policy. She is also the author of ‘China’s Approach towards Territorial Disputes: Lessons and Prospects’ (Knowledge World, 2016)

worries were exacerbated with the coming of K. P. Sharma Oli to power who is considered pro-China in his approach. However, what could be seen as a relief to India was the visit by Oli to India in April 2018.

This was a step forward for Nepal in reassuring India of its intentions of improving India-Nepal ties.

India’s relation with Maldives also suffered a setback when the state of emergency was declared in Maldives and India was urged by the Maldivian opposition, led by the former Maldivian President, Mohamed Nasheed, to send the troops, like it did in 1988, which was famously known as ‘Operation Cactus’. The relations began to deteriorate in 2012 only when Maldivian government terminated an agreement with the GMR which was involved in the development and modernising the Ibrahim Nasir International Airport. In 2014, during the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to the Indian subcontinent, Maldives subsequently awarded the contract to the Chinese company—Beijing Urban Construction Group Company.

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

47

neighbourhood first CHINA’S GAMBIT

In November 2017, Maldives became the second South Asian country after Pakistan to finalise the Free Trade Agreement with China.

India’s neighbourhood policy did not appeal much to its South Asian neighbours and several countries began to look towards China to balance India in the region. Also, it is noteworthy that while Chinese money seems to be lucrative to most of the countries; being the largest country in the region, other members in the SAARC holds India responsible for inactivity in the regional organisation.

perceives India’s actions as interference in their internal matters, whereas, they believe that China provides them with aid but does not interfere in their internal matters. However, initiation of OBOR has increased China’s presence and influence in the region. One such example was handing over of Hambantota Port to China by Sri Lanka on a 99-year lease. Sri Lanka had to handover the Port to China as it was unable to repay the Chinese loans. Several countries are becoming debt-ridden.

China’s presence in Sri Lanka and Maldives will bring it closer to the Indian Ocean region, thereby, making India jittery.

India’s relations with Nepal also suffered a blow due to India’s [unofficial] economic blockade in the Terai region

One of the outcomes of the Wuhan Summit was the statement about undertaking a joint developmental project in Afghanistan. Stability in Afghanistan is crucial to both India and China. If both India and China are sincere about focussing more on convergence than differences, South Asia will be central to India-China cooperation in the regional context.

Conclusion / Safeguarding the National Interests Given the events of the recent months, it may be concluded that India and China have more reasons to cooperate than compete in the South Asian region. While China has been transferring technology and weapons to Pakistan for the sole purpose of keeping India preoccupied in the region, it has realised that using Pakistan against India

China’s Overtures in South Asia / China’s Approach towards South Asia

tions with India. China has joined hands with Russia to work jointly in

One of the major irritants in India-China relations has been its support to Pakistan. China’s development of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which passes through the Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) is a cause of concern for India. India maintains that

With the informal summit between

the Central Asian region. China may

Prime Minister Modi and Chinese

think of a similar arrangement with

President Xi Jinping in Wuhan in

India in South Asia.

CPEC, one of the six land corridors under One Belt, One Road (OBOR) is a primary reason for its reservations against China-led OBOR. China and Pakistan have also proposed to extend the CPEC to Afghanistan. China, under the framework of OBOR, is also proposing to build a railway line between Kathmandu and Lhasa (Tibet).

Seemingly, one of the reasons behind South Asian countries’ resentment against India has been that it

48

India-China Bonhomie and the Wuhan Summit

will not be advantageous to its rela-

April 2018, the relations between India and China are getting back

As far as South Asian countries are

on track. This has come in the

concerned, the rivalry for greater

backdrop of the 73-day long

influence between India and China

standoff in Doklam between the

will be prevalent. Nevertheless,

two Asian giants which derailed

South Asian countries are aware

the relations for a brief period of

that relying fully on China is not in

time. Both sides issued the state-

their best interest. Nepal’s Prime

ment announcing the disengage-

Minister Oli’s visit to India may be

ment of troops from Doklam but

seen in this context. There needs to

the terms of disengagement were

be an understanding among South

never disclosed. While both sides

Asian countries that for India, like

had several reasons to disengage

any other country, it is important

at Doklam and initiate the dia-

to safeguard its national interest.

logue, one of the major reasons for

India’s interest lies in the stability

India was India’s diminishing in-

of the region and it is only

fluence in South Asia and China’s

possible when countries work

increasing foothold in the region.

in tandem.

July 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Ramzan ceasefire OPERATION ‘ALL OUT’ SUBORNED

TERRORISTS STRIKE BACK

Frankly speaking, any unilateral ceasefire

by India during Ramzan or any time against Pakistan-sponsored Kashmiri jihadi terrorists will only backfire and is doomed. For safety and prosperity of ‘New India’, Modi Government or any government in India must be willing to fight relentless, non-stop 24x7x365 war against terror and thus, terrorizing the terrorists because any mercy for them will be sure death for us.

SOURABH JYOTI SHARMA The writer is a Strategic Commentator & Columnist based in Guwahati, Assam. Currently Pursuing PhD on “India-Israel Strategic Defence-Intelligence Friendship” & working as Assistant Professor, Political Science at Guwahati University, D.K.College.

He specializes in Indo-centric Strategic Affairs with publications in National, International Print & Web Journals.

“There is no security, no safety, in the appeasement of evil.

You can go on feeding the crocodile, hoping he will eat you last.............but eat you, he will!”

Ronald Reagan, Ex-US President.

July 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

49

Ramzan ceasefire OPERATION ‘ALL OUT’ SUBORNED

I

t has really been a

‘conditional unilateral ceasefire’

very disheartening and

against Kashmiri terrorists. But

Terror Continues In Ramzan

demoralising news that Modi

why? It’s once again for the Islamic

Do terror attacks in India and

Government has declared

“Holy Month of Ramzan”. What

across globe really stop or

‘conditional unilateral

is the logic behind this cowardly

decrease during Ramzan? The

ceasefire’, temporarily

appeasement of the dreaded

answer is an emphatic and loud

stopping the ongoing ‘Operation

terrorists who have scant regard

‘NO’! To cite Zee News data of two

All Out’ against Kashmir’s jihadi

for shedding blood of innocent

years i.e. 2016 and 2017, when

terrorists during Ramzan. And

people 24x7 and 365 days a year?

there was no ceasefire during

just hours after the “great peace

In other words, does it say that

Ramzan – in 2016, when Ramzan

declaration”, jihadis launched

‘kill innocents throughout eleven

was going on from 6 June to 5

surprise attacks against Indian

months’ but stop killing for a month

July – 3 civilians, 19 security

security forces at Shopian killing

during “Holy” Ramzan? Again it’s

personnel and 39 terrorists were

a jawan and injuring many while

a great Indian comedy that while

killed. Again in last year i.e.

some terrorists managed to flee

the ‘politically correct’ intelligentia

2017 during May-June Ramzan,

from scene mingling amongst

of India always repeat that “terror

13 civilians, 25 jawans and 47

stone-pelting crowd, four others

has no religion”, then is it a de-facto

terrorists were killed.

got killed. It is a self-evident truth

and self-contradictory admission

that the ongoing ‘Operation All Out’,

that terror, indeed has a religion?

If we want to analyse globally,

Because the intended benificiary of

both Datagraver and Centre for

Ramzan ceasefire will exclusively be

Study of Political Islam (London)

the Kashmiri Muslim jihadists whom

give an alarming statistic that

It is a self-evident truth that the ongoing ‘Operation All Out’, initiated by Modi Government under Army Chief Gen Bipin Rawat, has been a massive success

the Left-Liberal pseudo-intellectuals always try to protect after every terror attacks saying that they are not ‘Real Muslims’ or Islam has been “misinterpreted or hijacked” by jihadi terrorists!? Same stale and stinking narrative in India and across globe which now made these hordes of terror-apologists laughing stock of all patriotic citizens of India and

initiated by Modi Government under

public across world. But still, these

Army Chief Gen Bipin Rawat, has

clowns won’t stop lying!!

been a massive success in almost

eliminating the top leadership of

The make believe sweet liners in

Kashmiri jihadi terrorists in recent

support of Ramzan ceasefire is

past. Public opinion in and across

that – ‘Ramzan is a Holy Month

India is strongly supporting Modi

of Islamic calender of fasting’ and

Government’s ‘hot pursuit’ against

therefore, it is “expected” that being

the killers of humanity in the Indian

true Muslims, Kashmiri jihadis will

State of Jammu and Kashmir.

do only fasting and will not be going

gung ho on feasting with bloodbath,

Modi U-turn / India’s Political Rhetoric

50

at least, for a month!? But what have been the ground realities?

But, lo and behold! PM Modi led

Rhetoric won’t do, we all must do a

Government of India has declared

rational, logical debate.

July 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

more terror attacks across globe take place during Ramzan as compared to the rest of the year!

Shocking? Well, yes, if one does not know the history of Islamic wars that actually took place or wars solely planned to wage during Ramzan in order to get “guranteed victory” from Allah over infidel enemy. None but Muhammad, Prophet of Islam, whose sayings, actions and examples are to be followed by every single Muslim on earth as per mandatory Islamic religious injunctions; himself waged not one but three wars viz. Battle of Badr (624 AD), Battle of the Ditch (627 AD) and Battle of Tabouk (630 AD)– all three wars being deliberately planned to be waged during Ramzan in his own lifetime!

The Prophet’s Example When Muhammad, the Prophet of Islam himself had no qualms or

guilt to wage wars to kill infidel

and gave Britishers time to regain

ceasefire! Was terrorism finished

enemies of Islam during Ramzan,

strength to crush India’s freedom

in the last 18 years? Then, is

in fact, he meticulously planned

struggle till 1947; the same way

there any reason that terrorism

them in the ‘Holy Month’ of Ramzan

calling off anti-terror ‘Operation

in Kashmir or anywhere will ever

for guranteed blessings from Allah

All Out’ during Ramzan, which

cease to exist by Government

for sure victories over Islam’s

has been at its peak will surely

declared fatwas of unilateral

enemies, then how come his

give Kashmiri terrorists time to

‘Ramzan ceasefire’? Not politically

followers, the jihadi Muslims can be

recouperate, regroup and regain

speaking but logically speaking

even expected to do only Qawwalis

new energy to launch more deadly

– No and Never! Moreover, mass

and no Qatl during Ramzan? Can

attacks in the Valley. It will break

mandate and public opinion in

pseudo-intellectuals, terror

the tempo/momentum of ongoing

India is predominatly against PM

apologists or now Modi Sarkar

counter-terror operations. If credit

Modi trying to follow and thereby,

dare to refute this factual,

for success of ‘Operation All Out’

repeat the self-killing, anti-India

rational and logically irrefutable

goes to Modi Sarkar, then discredit

blunders of past.

empirical fact? If any one of them

for abrupt ad-hoc stopping it,

can cite even a single Quranic

also must go to Modi Sarkar and

Frankly speaking, any unilateral

verse exhorting Muslims with no

incumbent BJP-PDP Government

uncertian terms not to fight during

in J&K.

or any time against Pakistan

Will It Bring Change Of Heart?

will only backfire and is doomed.

ceasefire by India during Ramzan sponsored Kashmiri jihadi terrorists

Ramzan, I will rest my case in support of Ramzan ceasefire. But they can’t!

Finally, why declare ‘unilateral

Same Mistake In Freedom Struggle

ceasefire’ during Ramzan? Do

Now, let me logically argue: why

Indian Government or BJP-PDP

abrupt stopping of successful

regime? Can both governments

‘Operation All Out’ will go

at Centre and J&K give written

against India’s national interest

guarantee that ‘Ramzan ceasefire’

of eliminating Pak-aided terror

will lead to change of heart of

in Kashmir. For the first time

the heartless jihadis in Kashmir,

since independence, ‘Terroristan’

literally, turning them all ‘Peaceful

Pakistan’s ‘Mullah-Military’ anti-

Buddhists’ which will transform

India establishment were on

the Valley from Jahanoom to

backfoot filling up vacancies of

Jannat overnight with “reformed

top jihadi leaderships in Kashmir

jihadists” humming around Paul

as from Burhan Wanis to Abu

Robeson’s ‘We are in the same

Dujanas - all Hizbul, Jaish,

boat, brother....’? Well, again the

Lashkar a la Mujahideens or

answer is a loud and emphatic ....

jihadi terrorisrts were gunned

No....No...and No’!

Kashmiri terrorists ask for it from

Can both governments at Centre and J&K give written guarantee that ‘Ramzan ceasefire’ will lead to change of heart of the heartless jihadis in Kashmir For safety and prosperity of ‘New India’, Modi Government or any government in India must be willing to fight relentless, nonstop 24x7x365 war against terror and thus, terrorizing the terrorists because any mercy for

down by India’s intrepid security

them will be sure death for us. Let

forces. Like abrupt calling off

It’s unfortunate, rather pity, that

me conclude with this quote of

the Non-cooperation Movement

Modi Government, too wants to

George Allen - “The idea of reasoning

by M.K Gandhi which was at its

repeat the historic blunder of then

with terrorists without force or with

peak in 1921 broke the tempo

PM Vajpayee who in circa 2000

appeasement is naive, and I think

of the anti-British Raj movement

also declared unilateral Ramzan

it’s dangerous.”

July 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

51

June 2018

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