Defence & Security Alert June 2018 Edition

150 The First and Only ISO 9001:2015 Cer tified Defence and Securit y Magazine in India

The Only Magazine Available On The Intranets Of IAF & BSF

JUNE 2018

VOLUME 9 ISSUE 09

WEST ASIA: A NEW COLD WAR? AND INDIA’S OPTIONS

editor’s note

DSA IS AS MUCH YOURS,

AS IT IS OURS!

E

ven as Palestinian refugees demand their right to return to native lands, and are massacred in the process, the Syrian crisis remains the focal point of events in West Asia. It almost seems that the crisis has been deliberately dragged on for so long so as to suit the interests of certain countries. In the process, thousands of innocents have lost their lives, priceless assets lost, antiquities stolen or damaged beyond repair—a country seemingly at war with itself. But all is not as it appears to the casual observer, for there are wheels within wheels at play.

What began as legitimate airing of grievances against an authoritarian regime was quickly hijacked by various interested parties that began to fish in the troubled waters.

And troubled waters there was plenty. Decades of brutal Ba’athist rule had hardened people to an unimaginable level.

They were subjugated, and even the appearance of young Bashir al-Asad didn’t herald the dawn that was once promised. Destiny didn’t deliver to the people of Syria as they’d hoped and prayed for. So some brave souls began to scrawl graffiti, raise

slogans and pelt stones. When the Syrian security apparatus responded with a heavy hand, matters began to get out of hand.

This is when the external players began to step in, and upped their activities. Whether it was a Qatari television channel or neighbouring Turkey, and Israel, interference in Syrian matters reached a crescendo rather soon.

As a result of which the Syrian state lost sovereignty over large swathes of land, to rebel groups and to transnational players. A beleaguered Syria turned to its allies, Iran and its ideological partner, the Lebanese group Hizbullah. And, subsequently Russia, with its airpower, naval and ground assets. While those like the Kurdish militias appeared to aid the state even as they controlled territory of their own.

The appearance of Kurdish power got Turkey even more involved, and their shooting down a Russian fighter aircraft and subsequent land operations created a most piquant situation. With a blatantly sectarian posture, Turkey can rightly be accused of creating more problems than helping solve the biggest issue, clearing aside the dreaded Islamic State.

June 2018

Daesh, as it is called in Arabic, had occupied large swathes of land in Syria and Iraq, declared it a caliphate, and began committing the worst atrocities.

And it attracted volunteers from all over the world.

Russian support to Syrian forces helped turn the tide in remarkable ways. In coordination with various likeminded groups, the countryside was freed from Daesh and other such millenarian forces. Even as Turkey played a double game it was the consistency of Russian policy that changed equations on the ground. Which is why the recent aimless American missile strikes make for a worrisome development. When the immediate target has to be to clear Syria of all Daesh type forces, any diversion will only help such groups. Even though United States has Special Forces on the ground, and achieving good results, other actions must also be concomitant with strategic objectives. Otherwise, this turf war over Syria may well set off another Cold War between Russia and the United States.

Manvendra Singh

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

1

publisher’s view

An ISO 9001:2015 Certified Magazine

Volume 9 | Issue 09 | June 2018 Chairman Shyam Sunder Publisher and CEO Pawan Agrawal President Urvashi J Agrawal Director Shishir Bhushan Editor-in-Chief Manvendra Singh Copy Editor Vandana Bhatia Palli Copcom & Ops OSD Navjeet Sood Graphic Designer Prem Singh Representative (J&K) Salil Sharma Correspondent (Europe) Dominika Cosic Production Dilshad and Dabeer IT Operations Amber Sharma Photographer Subhash

W

hat came to be perceived as an Arab Spring germinating in Tunisia has been hijacked by external powers to cause mayhem in the West Asia-Middle East salient.

India, which geographically appears to be situated at a safe distance from this volatile epicenter, has had a long history of cultural, trade and political interactions with the imploding nation-States of this region. It is, thus, seeing the ghosts that could also visit us. Europe has already felt the backlash in the form of terrorist attacks. So, distance is no longer a barricade against disasters and communications and insidious messaging that can brainwash a fertile imagination and lead to undeclared wars.

Thus, Syria is not the first of this kind of deliberate disruption of vulnerable nations. India has had to bear a series of insurgencies since its creation in 1947. That it has managed to retain its territorial integrity is, by itself, a miracle. Perhaps the worst national disaster, the Khalistan Sikh uprising, intended to replicate the “two-nation theory” was used to artificially bifurcate Pakistan from the Indian polity. It was effectively crushed with a series of counter-insurgency operations. But there are signs of attempts to revive it once again and accentuate the dangers that are lurking in Jammu and Kashmir.

Tunisia and Syria have shown how huge conflagrations have small beginnings. Tunisia, by an act of self-immolation by a man, goaded into taking the fatal step by corrupt officials. That spark has by no means abated and Syria showed that mishandling graffiti on the wall could have serious consequences. Moreover, civil conflicts have been sparked by perceived atrocities on weaker sections of society.

Subscriptions Taniya Sharma Legal Advisor Deepak Gupta

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Editor: Manvendra Singh

2

WEST ASIAN SPECTRES

Indian civil society is a skein of diverse colours, each increasingly vying for either a more equitable portion of the national pie or a dignified place in the sun. This diversity is being sought to be exploited by anti-national elements for political or electoral gains and the uprising of the Dalits’ sparked by a Supreme Court ruling that is perceived to undo the legal underpinning of an affirmative action intended to prevent atrocities is a sign of things to come.

Governments at the Centre as well as in the States need to be more alert to apparently small provocations like warnings scribbled on selected residences and physical attacks on the basis of caste and religion.

Internally displaced persons or a large influx of unaccounted-for foreigners can be extremely disruptive, severely damaging the gains the economy and development may have nurtured.

This edition of DSA has been dedicated on the situation of Syria and on the geostrategic options for India. Our distinguished subject experts have tried to depict the whole situation for you, dear reader, to update you on the nightmare in Syria and its consequences for the rest of the world, including India.

Happy reading!

Pawan Agrawal June 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

contents

An ISO 9001:2015 Certified Magazine

SYRIAN CONFLICT, ARAB SUMMIT AND INDIA’S OPTIONS AMB ASHOK SAJJANHAR

04

ISIS: NOT DEAD YET LT GEN SN HANDA PVSM, AVSM, VSM (RETD)

10

SYRIAN CRISIS AND INDIA MANVENDRA SINGH

17

PAKISTAN RIDING TWO HORSES DR HARSH V PANT

20

THE TRUTH ABOUT CHEMICAL ATTACK IN SYRIA DR AJAY LELE

25

INDIA BEWARE DR ARVIND KUMAR AND DR MONISH TOURANGBAM

29

SYRIA: THE ISRAELI FACTOR LT GEN SYED ATA HASNAIN PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, SM, VSM & BAR (RETD)

33

TURNING CLOCK BACK TO OTTOMAN EMPIRE DR PANKAJ JHA

39

IT COULD HAPPEN IN INDIA TOO PAWAN AGRAWAL

44

HOT WAR IN SYRIA AND OPTIONS FOR INDIA MD MUDDASSIR QUAMAR

48

June 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

3

Lavantine Chaos PRO-ACTIVE INDIAN ROLE

SYRIAN CONFLICT, ARAB SUMMIT AND INDIA’S OPTIONS

What is certain is that proactively engaging with all major players would be the only advisable option in the short and medium term. However, in the long run, for a country aspiring to be a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, not having a stated policy on such a major issue and not following it through zealously, cannot be a strategy.

4

June 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

AMB ASHOK SAJJANHAR The writer, a postgraduate in Physics and a career diplomat, has served as Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia. He has also held several significant positions in Indian Embassies in Moscow, Tehran, Geneva, Dhaka, Bangkok, Washington and Brussels. C ​ urrently he is President, Institute of Global Studies and contributes regularly to discussions on international relations, geo-politics and foreign policy.

T

he war in Syria

linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and

After almost a year and a half

has killed more

government forces, endangers

of unrest, the conflict between

than half a million

Syria’s future, no matter who rules

the regime and the opposition

people, uprooted

at the national level. After nearly

escalated to a ​full-scale Civil War.

12 million—half of

seven years, the conflict in Syria

By mid-2012, the fighting had

the population—

and propelled a wave of refugees to Europe. The war threatens stability from West Asia/Middle East to Western Europe. But this war, that erupted from the 2011 uprisings against President Bashar al-Assad, is not just one conflict.

In addition to the involvement of major powers like Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the US, a complex knot of local and sectarian disputes among armed opposition groups, Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the Al-Qaeda-

reached the capital Damascus and

continues to defy attempts at a

commercial hub, Aleppo. Despite

resolution and has entered a new level of intensity in recent weeks.

peace proposals put forth by the

Syrian Trigger

the conflict only increased as

Arab League and United Nations, more factions joined the

Anti-government protests in

armed resistance.

provincial areas in 2011, inspired by similar demonstrations in other Middle Eastern nations, were

Damascus on 21 August 2013,

suppressed by the government of

brought the US on the brink of

President Assad. The crackdown

a military intervention in Syria.

was followed by piecemeal concessions that did not translate into genuine political reform.

June 2018

A chemical attack outside

President Barack Obama, however, pulled back at the last moment after Russia offered to broker a

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

5

Lavantine Chaos PRO-ACTIVE INDIAN ROLE

deal under which Syria would

years of rebel control, despite a

enclave into three parts. This

hand over its stockpile of chemical

ceasefire being in effect at the

action displaced 105,000 people

weapons. This turnabout was

time. As the year progressed,

from the area. Douma was the only

interpreted as a major diplomatic

Assad’s troops with vital support

city left that was not under Syrian

triumph for Russia.

from Russian troops and help

Government control.

and advice of Iranian Intelligence and security forces, reclaimed

Chemical Attack

The ISIS invaded northwestern

other cities in Syria. Emboldened,

An alleged chemical weapons

Syria in late 2013, the United

Syrian troops continued to pursue

attack that reportedly killed 70

States launched airstrikes in

rebel troops, while Turkish

people and left several hundred

Raqqa and Kobani in 2014, and

forces attacked Kurdish rebels

experiencing symptoms of

Russia intervened on behalf

in the north. Despite attempts to

exposure to toxic chemicals

of the Syrian Government in

implement yet another ceasefire in

took place on 7 April 2018.

September 2015. Russia’s entry

late February 2018, government

This brazen attack attracted

proved to be the turning point in

forces launched a major air

international opprobrium and

the conflict as this was the first

campaign against rebels in the

condemnation. President Trump

time that Russian forces had

eastern Syrian region of Ghouta.

warned Russia, Syria and Iran

ISIS Intervention

of a “big price’’ to pay for the

intervened outside the boundaries of the former Soviet Union since

United Nations Security Council

“mindless chemical attack’’ on

its disintegration in 1991. It

Resolution of 28 February 2018,

hapless citizens of Douma. Russia

also signalled the rise of a more

called for a nationwide ceasefire

blamed Britain for the attack. The

confident, assertive, bold and

in Syria for 30 days, including in

Syrian Government denied any

decisive Russia prepared to go to

Eastern Ghouta, but the Syrian

responsibility. In fact, it had little

any length to protect its interests.

continued the offensive. In March

reason, if any, to launch such an

Since late 2015, Russia has

2018, the Syrian Army split the

attack. With the help of Russian

emerged as the principal arbiter of developments in Syria at the expense of the United States.

While the clout and influence of America has progressively declined, that of Russia has grown.

At the end of February 2016, a ceasefire brokered by the UN went into effect, providing the first pause in the conflict since it began.

Turnaround By the middle of 2016, the ceasefire had collapsed and the conflagration erupted again.

Syrian Government troops battled opposition forces, Kurdish rebels, and ISIS fighters, while Turkey, Russia, and the US, all continued to intervene. In February 2017, government troops recaptured the major city of Aleppo after four

6

June 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

and Iranian forces, it has been on

followed by the 29th Summit of

a consensus and the issue would

a winning wicket over the last two

Arab countries in the eastern

have divided the body down the

and a half years and had managed

Saudi city of Dhahran on

middle. In fact, one of the biggest

to evict ISIS and other rebels and

15 April 2018.

criticisms that can be made

terrorist groups from most of their strongholds.

against the Arab League which Since the Summit took place only

was established 54 years ago in

a day after the missile attacks by

Egypt in 1964 is that it always

On the evening of 14th April,

USA, France and Britain, it was

tends to avoid and skirt divisive

the United States, together with

expected that these attacks,which

and controversial issues and

Britain and France, launched a

were launched without the

is reluctant to face contentious

joint military operation in response

approval of the United Nations

subjects head on.

to the Syrian regime’s alleged

and without even a preliminary

chemical weapons attack on

investigation into the source of

The fact that no discussions at

Douma. The coordinated airstrikes

the chemical weapons, would be

the Summit took place on the

hit three targets associated

on top of the agenda. It came as a

tri-country missile attacks on

with Syria’s chemical weapons

huge surprise and disappointment

Syria can be seen as a victory of

infrastructure: a scientific research

to several observers and analysts

diplomatic maneuvers of USA,

center, a chemical weapons

that this issue did not find even

in general and President Trump,

production facility, and a chemical

a mention on the menu. Saudi

in particular. The Summit called

weapons storage area.

Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and UAE

for an international probe while

had, in any case, fully endorsed

condemning the use of chemical

these bombings immediately after

weapons in Syria.

The Arab Summit The chemical weapon attack and

they took place. Even if the issue

the immediate reprisal in form

had been discussed, it would

Anti-Iran Phalanx

of missile strikes were quickly

have been impossible to arrive at

Rather than Syria which is the

Douma chemical

Douma within Syria

June 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

7

Lavantine Chaos PRO-ACTIVE INDIAN ROLE

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R), Russian President Vladimir Putin (C) and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani (L) at the Trilateral Summit in November 2017 in Sochi, Russia

Since late 2015, Russia has emerged as the principal arbiter of developments in Syria at the expense of the United States deepest festering wound on the

too close to Iran. However, even

body politic of West Asia, the

this issue did not come up for

focus of the Summit turned out to

discussion as the Saudi foreign

be Palestine and rising tensions

minister said that “it’s not a big

between Riyadh and Tehran.

issue” and that it’s “a very, very

Saudi Arabia pushed for a tough,

small problem.”

unified stance against Iran which was unanimously adopted by

Slaughter Of Palestinians

the assembled leaders of the

The only substantive issue that

22-member Arab League.

came up for deliberation and decision was the US move to

8

illegitimate”. In fact, Saudi Arabia had named this year’s summit as “Quds [Jerusalem] Summit”. This decision by the US which was put into effect on 14 May 2018, on the 70th anniversary of establishment of Israel, resulted in the highly regrettable and reprehensible killing of more than 60 Palestinian protesters by Israeli troops.

The last time the bloc had taken any substantive, concrete decision was in 2011, when it suspended Syria’s membership over the Assad regime’s role in the war. Syria remains suspended and did not

This was the first Arab Summit

shift its Embassy from Tel Aviv to

to take place after the declaration

Jerusalem in a break with decades

on 5th June last year by Saudi

of US policy. Arab ministers

Arabia supported by UAE, Bahrain

unanimously condemned the

and Egypt, accusing Qatar of

decision by President Trump

few countries, if not the only

supporting terrorists and being

and termed it as “null and

major country, that can boast

June 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

attend the Summit.

India’s Options India is possibly one of the

of excellent relations with all

how to deal with some of the

the major players in the region.

intractable challenges confronting

India’s ties with USA have seen

the international community in

a significant upswing over the

West Asia and elsewhere. Some

last four years. So, also are

commentators have jumped to

India’s partnerships with Saudi

proclaim the example of visit of

Arabia, Iran, UAE and Qatar, as well as with Israel, scaling new heights. This is notwithstanding the aggravating and exacerbating conflicts and tensions inter-se amongst most of these countries.

India’s relations with Russia also continue to be on the upward trajectory in spite of the growing warmth between Russia and Pakistan.

India has very vital and critical strategic interests in the region.

In addition to the fact that India imports about 85 per cent of its energy needs (oil, gas) from the region, receives more than 50 per cent of the US $69 billion annual remittances from this region and has about 8 million Indian nationals working in West Asian

Minister of State General VK Singh to Pyongyang on 15-16 May 2018.

Studied Diplomacy

The Syrian Government denied any responsibility in the chemical attack.

In fact, it had little reason, if any, to launch such an attack

This is easier said than done. India needs to make haste slowly. While it should keep itself fully engaged

New Delhi’s approach in Syria is

with all the developments that are

widely seen as muted support for

taking place in the region so that

Bashar al-Assad’s government.

it is not taken by surprise by any

This is in keeping with India’s

shifts in the region or elsewhere, it

policy, since Independence to

should not be in a hurry to offer its

reject foreign military intervention

good offices to the conflicting sides

when it is not within the

to bring them to the negotiating

framework of the United Nations.

table. The Israeli-Palestine conflict

India has also opposed regime

and the sectarian Saudi-Iran clash

changes imposed by foreign

or the US-Russian rivalry in Syria

powers. It is hence no surprise

have deep-rooted causes and have

that Delhi’s “neutrality” appears to

been continuing for a long time.

be leaning towards Assad.

India should act in concert with other countries to overcome strife

India does not have the required

countries, there are several other

and struggle in the region rather

significant aspects like growing

than taking any individual,

bilateral trade and investment

self-standing initiative to achieve

that cement ties between India

these objectives. Stability and

and West Asia.

security in the region is important

leverage to change the reality on the ground, but it would be unwise to infer that it stay aloof from an

for India but it should try to For all the above reasons,

foster and promote it by acting in

several countries and political

conjunction with other like-minded

commentators have strongly

countries rather than individually

suggested that India should play

on its own.

issue which critically affects the rest of the world, including itself.

Multilateral Manoeuvre What is certain is that proactively engaging with all major players would be the only advisable

a more pro-active role and use

option in the short and medium

its good offices in trying to settle

During a recent visit to Damascus

disputes and promote peace and

by Indian Minister of State for

stability in the region. Analysts

External Affairs MJ Akbar, Syrian

have also stated that if India

President Assad said: “India

wishes to occupy the high table in

has a role to play in meeting the

formulating rules of international

challenge of terrorism” while Akbar

having a stated policy on such a

governance in security, economics

noted that the destruction in Syria

major issue and not following it

etc., it should be bold and decisive

needed to be followed by “an

through zealously, cannot

era of re-construction”

be a strategy.

in articulating its position on

June 2018

term. However, in the long run, for a country aspiring to be a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, not

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

9

ISIS

ON ROAD TO EXTINCTION?

ISIS: NOT DEAD YET

The IS retains its global appeal and reach albeit with a severely degraded capability for conventional military operations and crippled finances. After its military reverses, it would presently be undergoing a phase of restrategising, relocation, financial consolidation. It continues to remain a threat and the international community needs to persist with sustained efforts to target its sources of finance and its leadership to render it irrelevant.

10

June 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

F

rom its founding

in Iraq, taxation of populations

in 1999 as a Salafi

in territories under its control,

jihadist organisation

and lootings and kidnappings

designated Jamāʻat

enabling it to acquire the status

al-Tawḥīd wa-al-

of ‘the best funded terrorist

Jihād by Jorda-

nian Salafi jihadist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, to its swearing allegiance to Al-Qaeda in 2004 and gaining notoriety during the Iraqi insurgency following US intervention in 2003, ISIS as it exists today, saw a meteoric rise during the period from 2010-11 to 2014.

This period saw the original organisation transforming to Tanẓīm Qāʻidat al-Jihād fī Bilād al-Rāfidayn, more popularly known as Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) in 2004, to Islamic State in Iraq in 2006, to Islamic State in Iraq and al-shams/ Syria/Levant (ISIS/ISIL) and finally, to Islamic State under its present head, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi who was appointed as the new leader in May 2010 after Zarqawi

organisation’ in history. Territory and financial autonomy, backed by its military and ideology not only enabled IS to function as a proto-State with its own bureaucracy but also enhanced with terrorist organisations in a Algeria, Nigeria (Boko Haram), Yemen, Sinai, Gaza, Lebanon, Phillipines, Indonesia, Khorastan (Afghanistan, Pakistan and some neighbouring areas) and India (Janood-ul-Khalifa-e-Hind) reportedly pledging allegiance to ISIL in 2015.

Downturn The fortunes of IS witnessed a turnaround for the worse from

August 2014 onwards with the

Ascendancy

American decision to stem the tide

organisation make vast territorial gains in Iraq and Syria gaining control of important towns like Mosul and Raqqa in northern Iraq and eastern Syria. It took advantage of the withdrawal of US soldiers from Iraq and by exploiting the Sunni-Shia divide in Iraq exacerbated by sectarian policies of Shia-led government and the Civil War conditions in Syria brought about by rebellion against President Bashar al-Assad. Territorial gains brought with them the much needed financial autonomy through captured oilfields and banks

Commissioned into 5/3 GR in Nov 71, the writer fought the Indo-Pak War 1971 in the Kargil Sector. An alumnus of National Defence College, he is a seasoned Infantry officer with vast experience in mountain and desert warfare, low intensity conflict operations and internal security. He was Chief of Staff of Srinagar based Chinar Corps before assuming command of Jodhpur based Desert Corps in Feb 2008. He retired as Director General Infantry in 2011.

number of countries like Libya,

was killed in a US air strike.

The period 2010-2014 saw the

LT GEN SN HANDA PVSM, AVSM, VSM (RETD)

its appeal in foreign countries

strikes were in support of rebel forces seeking overthrow of

following the genocidal killing and

Bashar government.

abduction of thousands of Yazidi men in Sinjar city and district

Concerted operations over the

of Iraq in August. Beginning 08

next three years with US led

August 2014, territory under

coalition forces comprising

IS occupation was subjected

Australia, Belgium, Canada,

to relentless air strikes by US

Denmark, France, the

coalition forces in Iraq and both

Netherlands, and the United

US and Russia in Syria. Air

Kingdom, carrying out over

strikes were in support of ground

24,160 airstrikes on ISIS targets

operations being undertaken

by Iraqi Armed Forces, Popular

since August 2014 coupled with

Mobilisation Forces (PMF), Kurdish

air strikes and ground action by

Peshmerga and various Turkmen

Russia led coalition of Iran, Iraq

Muslim, Assyrian Christian, Yezidi,

and Turkey saw IS losing 98 per

Shabaki and Armenian Christian

cent of territory under its control

forces in Iraq. In Syria, Russian

including its strongholds of Mosul

air strikes were in support of

and Raqqa as shown in map

government forces whereas US air

on page13. Both the US and

June 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

11

ISIS

ON ROAD TO EXTINCTION?

Russia announced partial

ideological appeal and reach have

operational capabilities of IS with

withdrawal of their troops from

enabled it to carry out terrorist

its leadership on the run. After

Iraq and Syria. In December 2017,

attacks in several European

loss of Raqqa, IS kept relocating

the Iraqi Prime Minister proclaimed

countries. What then has been the

its HQ to places in Syria and Iraq,

victory over IS having driven the last

impact of reverses suffered by IS

and reportedly, has no centralised

remnants out of the country.

between 2015-2017?

HQ since November 2017 onwards.

12

Loss of territory has had an

For an organisation whose

Seeking New Havens

obvious crippling effect on IS

ideological moorings are principally

But IS retains its presence in

finances. The military defeats have

rooted in the establishment of a

almost 18 countries through

degraded its military capability.

‘caliphate’ and which seeks loyalty

organisations owing allegiance

But is IS really dead or on the

of Muslims worldwide, the loss of

to it in those countries as shown

road to extinction?

virtually its entire territories in

in map on page15. Its leadership

Iraq and Syria including Mosul

IS Today

must certainly be expected to be

in Iraq in July 2017 and its de-

identifying a suitable next place

While IS has undoubtedly suffered

facto capital at Raqqa in Syria in

to establish itself and proclaim a

substantial territorial, financial

October 2017, is a severe blow to

‘caliphate’. It would certainly be

and military setbacks in the

its image and appeal. Some 8 to

looking for safe havens closer to

last three years, its ideology

10 million people were living in

its roots in Middle East, which

rooted in ‘caliphate’, Salafism,

territories under IS control, at its

are prosperous and enable easy

Salafi jihadism and Wahabism

peak. Military reverses leading to

control over large populations

apparently continues to attract

loss of territory and a secure base

with a view to generate revenue

jihadi terrorist groups in various

for its functioning as a proto-

to run its proto-State ‘caliphate’.

countries across the world. Its

State have undoubtedly impacted

Lebanon, Yemen, Somalia, Libya,

June 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Niger-Chad appear to offer possible

an expenditure of $2 billion for

support being provided to IS by

next choices for IS leadership.

providing proto-State services to

Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey,

Even though Iraq declared its war

populations under its control and

the most serious ones being

against IS over in December 2017,

had a surplus of $250 million.

against Turkey. While donations

both Syria and Iraq too would

With concerted actions to target

need to remain extremely vigilant

contributed only 5 per cent of its

its sources of revenue from oil

against attempts by IS to resurrect

revenues at its financial peak, the

wells, taxes and fees, looting,

itself in their countries.

IS today would be forced to largely

confiscations and fines, the

rely on donations, with its major

revenue fell to about a third of that

sources of revenue having been

in 2016. The progressive loss of

lost with loss of territories under

territories up to 2017 has virtually

its control.

Shutting Financial Tap Besides inflicting military losses and defeats on IS, the international community has focussed on crippling its sources of finance. At its financial peak in 2015, IS reportedly budgeted

choked its finances severely

Battle Order

limiting its ability to conduct military operations. However,

Militarily, the estimates of its

there have been allegations of

strength in Iraq and Syria vary

financial, military and logistics

from as high as 2,00,000 to 31,000

Concerted operations over the three years by US led coalition forces coupled with air strikes and ground action by Russia led coalition saw IS losing 98 per cent of territory under its control

at its peak in 2014 with 15,000 to 20,000 foreign fighters from 80 countries including over 3,000 from the Western world to as low as about 6,500 towards the end of 2017. Outside Iraq and Syria,

How much territory IS has lost since January 2015

BBC, Islamic State and the Crisis in Iraq and Syria in maps, 23 March 2018

June 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

13

ISIS

ON ROAD TO EXTINCTION?

IS continues to have a substantive

Returnee Threats

forces, security and intelligence

presence in West Africa (Boko

There are reports of foreign fighters

officials who were victimised as

Haram) and Libya with fighters

returning to their countries. Such

part of the de-Ba’athification

numbering 5,000 to 10,000. Other

returned fighters ought to be a

process following overthrow of

countries having significant IS

matter of grave concern being

Saddam regime. They honed

presence is Jordan, Turkey, Egypt,

highly indoctrinated ideologically

their military skills further in the

and having the potential to resort

decade plus of sub-conventional

Yemen, Saudi Arabia and Algeria.

Most of its weaponry is captured and include tanks, guns, surface to air missiles. It also makes extensive use of unconventional weapons like car and truck bombs, IEDs, and suicide bombers besides resorting to ingenious methods of creating carnage by ramming vehicles into unsuspecting crowds. It is known

to unconventional methods to launch terrorist attacks. This threat is apparent from the statement of Mr De Kerchove, counter-terrorism coordinator for the European Union (EU), at the RUSI conference that of more than 40 attacks carried out in the EU since 2014, three by returning ISIS jihadis accounted for more than

The high degree of military skills possessed by the senior leadership of IS substantially enhances the potential of the organisation to sustain itself by resorting to changing strategy and form of warfare depending upon the situation. Under the present

to have used chemical weapons in

two-thirds of the total deaths

circumstances, there would exist a

Syria. With the military reverses

and injuries.

very high probability of IS reverting to some form of guerrilla

suffered, IS can be expected to

14

warfare from 2003 onwards.

/counter-insurgency warfare

shift strategy again to being an

Highly Trained

insurgent group and resort to ‘lone

The IS leadership largely

backed by terrorist actions

wolf attacks’ to remain relevant.

comprises of former Iraqi armed

involving suicide/car bombings

June 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Primary operating areas of Sunni extremist groups in 2017

and similar unconventional modus

in a joint US-Iraqi Intelligence

The foregoing would suggest

operandi as witnessed in attacks

operation. Notwithstanding several

that IS retains its global

on civilians in Europe.

reports of killing/apprehension

appeal and reach albeit with a

Â

of its supreme leader, Abu Bakr

severely degraded capability for

Al-Baghdadi Alive

Al-Baghdadi, in the last two years

conventional military operations

Notwithstanding recent reports of

during the battle for Mosul, he

and crippled finances. After

the capture of five senior members

remains elusive and is reported

its military reverses, it would

of IS leadership including Ismail

to be operating on the border of

presently be undergoing a phase

al-Eithawi, a close aide of

Iraq and Syria with Intelligence

of restrategising, relocation,

Baghdadi, in early May 2018

agencies in hot pursuit of him.

financial consolidation. It

Notwithstanding recent reports of the capture of five senior members of IS leadership Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi remains elusive and is reported to be operating on the border of Iraq and Syria June 2018

continues to remain a threat and the international community needs to persist with sustained efforts to target its sources of finance and its leadership to render it irrelevant.

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

15

caliphate DIGITAL MEANS

16

June 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

SYRIAN CRISIS AND INDIA Since India aspires to be major player in the club of civilised nations it is only natural to expect actions on its part that suggest assumption of that responsibility, of being seen in that role of taking decisions to better humankind. In the contest of nations, and of ideas, India has to be placed in the camp that is seen to be in the right.

I

MANVENDRA SINGH The writer is the Editor-in-Chief of Defence and Security Alert (DSA) magazine. He is a well-known defence journalist and columnist.

He was a member of the Indian Parliament till 2009 from one of the largest constituencies in Rajasthan and is currently MLA in the Rajasthan assembly.

nspired by the Caliphate,

to the announcement is enough

recruited through digital

of a signal to New Delhi that a

means, some seriously

hands-off approach to events

motivated citizens of India

in West Asia was not possible

made their way to Syria.

anymore. The seamless nature of

The number wasn’t high;

internet connectivity, transmission

Iraq and Raqqa in eastern Syria.

While some Indians are interred in a World War I cemetery in Mosul, there are now Indians who have laid down their lives for a fleeting Caliphate. Ironical,

in fact in terms of percentage

of news and information has

of population it was minuscule.

rendered borders and barriers

Especially so when compared to

surmountable. And such borders

citizens of European countries

were surmounted by those Indians

whose numbers were significantly

who made the effort to reach the

high. But the fact exists that

areas of Syria or Iraq over which

Indians went to Syria, inspired by

the Caliphate was spread. Once

dreams of living in a Caliphate,

such information is available

albeit an unrecognised one, and

without filters there is no way

which was self-styled and

to prevent its dissemination.

self-announced. When Abu Bakr

The presence of Indians in the

al-Baghdadi announced his

Caliphate is a case in point to take

Caliphate from the pulpit of the

this threat very seriously.

fact that vast swathes of territory

were some digitally addicted

At its peak the Islamic State in

inimical to all that it stands

Indians who took that as a call

Iraq and Syria, or Daesh to use

for. And yet the country was

to the faithful.

its Arabic acronym, controlled a

not involved in the campaign to

vast swathe of territory straddling

eject its presence. A number of

The fact that some Indians,

both countries. Its functional

European countries have citizens

however few in number, responded

headquarters were Mosul in

who moved to areas under the

Al-Nouri mosque in Mosul, there

June 2018

for those interred in Mosul died more than a hundred years ago in a campaign against the last Caliph, and now, there were some Indians in the next millennium willing to die for a new Caliph, albeit a short lived on. This says a lot about the challenges facing India, both in terms of the attraction the Caliphate holds for some of its citizens, and the could be occupied by a group

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

17

caliphate DIGITAL MEANS

18

Daesh, mesmerised by the vision

For India have stated global

of violence and redemption. The

ambitions of being an important

difference between those European

actor, a determinant of world

countries and India is that each of

policy. There are frequently stated

those nations participated in the

claims of being a major player,

campaign to evict Daesh, in some

regionally and otherwise. But all

way or the other. But not India.

of these claims are only taken

Which is a pity, for it is also an

seriously when the claimant is

affected country, as its citizens

willing to play the big game. And in

have moved, some with families

the world of operational art to be

in tow, to participate in the jihad

invited to the big table the country

to protect the Caliphate. That in

has to be willing to walk the talk.

itself is enough cause to be in the

In simple language it means the

campaign to oust the Caliphate.

country has to be seen to be

Most importantly it is also to be

participating in a global campaign

seen in the campaign.Â

to counter a threat. In this case,

June 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

The affected country, region, decides on the reliability of its friends based on their presence in the operational campaign, the ground it is the Daesh and its devious aims of destroying the lives of a generation. And there are Indians involved in that destructive enterprise, so it behoves upon the country to be seen to evict

the threat. That is what the world expects, and more so the affected region. The affected country, region, decides on the reliability of its friends based on their presence in the operational campaign, the ground. And on that score, there is a lot to learn from the Russian campaign in Syria.

Russia entered the Syrian campaign explicitly on the side of the ruling establishment in Damascus by placing military assets on ground, including combat aircraft and naval vessels. This was the most voluble statement, that the strategic objective of securing territory from Daesh overshadowed all other considerations. Clearly unlike any other country and it paid dividends rather soon. Even as the military tide began to turn, the world too awoke to the extent of effort required to confront the threat. Hedging bets was no longer an option, so being seen as a player was the only route left. Which is something that India should most definitely have done. It is only natural to expect from a country that is in itself reeling from the

When Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi announced his Caliphate from the pulpit of the Al-Nouri mosque in Mosul, there were some digitally addicted Indians who took that as a call to the faithful

spectre of terrorism,

the fact is that the game is far

of being seen in that role of taking

mostly transnational.

more complex. There are

decisions to better humankind.

deep connections between all in

In the contest of nations, and of

the ruling structure. But the

ideas, India has to be placed in

most important issue is, of

the camp that is seen to be in the

course, Indians getting engaged

right. Only then will the civilised

in actions that clearly point

world appreciate India and all

towards terrorism, as the

that it stands for and believes in.

civilised world knows it.

Shirking from being seen is not an

There are fears expressed in India of being drawn into the perennial Shi’a - Sunni debate when it comes to action in Syria. But that is never the case since Syria is not a simple Shi’a - Sunni issue. While it is certainly a fact that most of the

option anymore, especially given Since India aspires to be major

the challenges that the country

player in the club of civilised

faces, with its citizens expressing

nations it is only natural to expect

card, and that the ruling elite

transnational loyalties. Time

actions on its part that suggest

has long passed to put an

belong to a Shi’a sect, but

assumption of that responsibility,

end to inaction.

groups engaged in trying to evict the Syrian regime use the Sunni

June 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

19

Arab NATO CURRYING FAVOUR WITH US

PAKISTAN RIDING TWO HORSES

Islamabad has alienated Iran to a point that Iran has openly stated that it would attack and uproot what it calls safe havens for Sunni jihadists inside Pakistan. Though Pakistan has declared its neutrality in the conflict between Riyadh and Tehran, Islamabad is actually taking the Saudi side in the Middle Eastern Cold War.

L

ast year in April,

general. With this, he became

Gen Raheel Sharif,

the first commander-in-chief

Pakistan’s retired

of the Islamic Military Alliance

army chief, took

to Fight Terrorism (IMAFT), a

over as the supreme

coalition of around 39 countries

commander of the

headquartered in the Saudi capital,

multinational Saudi-led “Islamic

Riyadh. Gen Sharif has expressed

military alliance” created by

his desire to use his experiences

Riyadh in 2015 to fight against

and knowledge to remove internal

Islamic State and terrorism in

misunderstandings among Muslim

20

June 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

the National Security Advisor of

Bridging Sunni-Shia Divide?

Pakistan also suggested that Gen

Addressing the Middle East

Sharif’s appointment would even

Military Alliance and Coordination

benefit countries opposed to

Conference in October 2017, Gen

such an alliance, including Iran

Raheel Sharif had stated that

and would help them to join

Muslim countries were facing

the alliance.

many challenges, including

countries. Naseer Khan Janjua,

Saudi Arabia, which hosts 1.9 million Pakistanis, also tops the list of countries with highest remittances to Pakistan over $4.5 billion annually

organised terrorism that poses great threat to the future of the region which he wants to eradicate

DR HARSH V PANT

by leading the alliance. He added that the region was also facing

The writer is Professor of International Relations at King’s College, London and is presently Head of the Strategic Studies Programme at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.

economic and social challenges, which can be tackled through a coordinated approach. He called for joint efforts to weed out the menace of terrorism and added

that it was an honour for him to lead this charge.

With this move, Pakistan seems to have made a diplomatic investment in the Saudi-led Islamic military coalition. After all, the long-standing relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia has helped Islamabad ally itself with both the countries seeking reciprocal support. But the Middle East is a sensitive region to tread.

Pakistan seems to have reportedly told the Saudis that it would join this pact only if its main purpose was to fight terrorism and not aimed at any other Islamic country, in particular, Iran. That, however, is easier said than done. Pakistan has shared close economic and military ties with Saudi Arabia, with Riyadh being its biggest exporter of oil.

Saudi Arabia, which hosts 1.9 million Pakistanis, also tops the list of countries with highest

June 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

21

Arab NATO CURRYING FAVOUR WITH US

Former Pakistan Army Chief Gen Raheel Sharif, the Commander-inChief of Saudi led 41-nation Islamic Military Counterterrorism Alliance

For Pakistan, to have one of their own leading this alliance would show a great cooperation on their part to eradicate terrorism to the international community and especially to the US

Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, King of Saudi Arabia and head of the House of Saud

remittances to Pakistan over $4.5 billion annually and is also a major market for Pakistani goods and services. It was, therefore, difficult for Pakistan to ignore repeated Saudi requests for joining the coalition.

For Pakistan, to have one of their own leading this alliance would show a great cooperation on their part to eradicate terrorism to the international community and especially to the US. Â

Ambiguities There is another angle to this.

The retired General has also tried to portray himself as the leader of a military force defending the Muslim holy sites of Mecca and Medina against the Islamic State, which will be more acceptable to most Pakistanis. Â But there have been mixed signals about the real intent behind the Saudi move as well. Several Saudi officials have suggested that the alliance might not be restricted to confronting terrorist organisations like the militant

22

June 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Islamic State group and Al Qaeda.

campaign against the Houthis in

Yemen. In this context, appointing

Under certain conditions, it was

Yemen has been a major bone

a Pakistani General to head the

conceivable that the military

of contention between Riyadh

military was a signal that it would

alliance could target rebel groups

and Islamabad since 2015

get some support from Pakistan in

and militias posing a threat

when Saudi Arabia first reached

order to fight the Houthis.

to member countries such as

out to Pakistan. Pakistan’s

Yemen’s Houthis, which are

Parliament had decided against

Nuclear Angle

supported by Iran. Hence, the

the deployment of Pakistani

In the context of wider nuclear

appointment of a Pakistani leader

forces to avoid backlash from

proliferation in the Middle East, it

would force Islamabad to choose

sizeable Pakistani Shia Muslim

has been suggested that Pakistan

sides between supporting Iran or

community which is about 20 per

as a nuclear weapon State was

Saudi Arabia.

cent of the Pakistani population

especially suited to lead the

and deterioration in relations

coalition. With Iran’s nuclear

Pakistan’s participation in the

with neighbouring Iran, which

ambitions coming to the fore, the

Saudi-led coalition’s military

is supporting the Houthis in

Arab Gulf States have expressed

June 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

23

Arab NATO CURRYING FAVOUR WITH US

their desire for nuclear weapons

Shia, with Iranian assistance,

as well. Pakistan, today, has the

responded by forming their own

fastest growing nuclear arsenal

militias. The continued targeting by

in the world. A military leader

Sunni terrorists of Pakistani Shia

who has commanded a nuclear

remains an Iranian concern. This

strike force does have credentials

Shia-Sunni strife in Pakistan has

unlike any other Muslim General.

provoked Iran to provide clandestine

The larger issue of a Sunni bomb

support to its co-religionists there.

standing in opposition to a Shia

There are concerns that Pakistan

nuclear capability provides the

has a large Shia population and it

subtext of this engagement as well.

should not be involved in a regional

sectarian matter, as it would upset

Saudi Arabia’s military force is

many citizens of Pakistan and may

well-equipped with advanced

cause unrest in the country. The

European and American arms,

Pakistani Taliban and ISIS are busy

but the kingdom’s combat forces

exploiting the sectarian divide,

are not experienced and have

targeting Shias and causing unrest

performed with limited success

in the country.

In the context of wider nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, it has been suggested that Pakistan as a nuclear weapon State was especially suited to lead the coalition in the war against the Houthis in Yemen. Saudi Arabia hopes that the Pakistani Army would support to upgrade their ground forces operational capabilities to fight their domestic wars.

Iranian Opposition Iran remains opposed to the Saudi initiative because of its serious differences over the current unrest in the Middle East, particularly in Syria and Yemen. Hence, relations

24

Islamabad has, as a result, alienated Iran to a point that Iran has openly stated that it would attack and uproot what it calls safe havens for Sunni jihadists inside Pakistan.

Though Pakistan has declared its neutrality in the conflict between Riyadh and Tehran, Islamabad is actually taking the Saudi side in the Middle Eastern Cold War.

between Iran and Pakistan have

Gen Sharif’s leadership of

suffered. Sectarian tension has also

the military alliance is likely

complicated relations. In the 1980s,

to exacerbate Islamabad’s

several radical groups sponsored

geostrategic tensions vis-a-vis

by Pakistani Intelligence began a

Tehran and Riyadh. It is not

systematic assault on Shia symbols

going to be an easy ride for either

and mosques in Pakistan. Pakistani

General Sharif or Pakistan.

June 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Syria CHEMICAL WEAPONS ATTACKS

THE TRUTH

ABOUT CHEMICAL ATTACK IN SYRIA Logically for Assad forces that have an upper hand in the conflict, no useful purpose could have been served by using chemical weapons.

His administration is definitely not so naïve not to understand the international implications of such an act. Hence, there exists a possibility that just to put Assad in the dock, his opposing forces could have stage-managed this attack. However, such claim could be made with certitude only if correct evidence is available to that effect and in the ‘fog of war’ it is very unlikely that such evidence (if any) could ever be gathered.

DR AJAY LELE The writer is working with the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi as a Senior Fellow. His areas of research interests include issues related to Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) and Strategic Technologies.

Besides, he has various publications to his name.

H

istorically, it has been observed that various activities that happen during the wars, at times remain

unanswered. Military operators do experience uncertainty in situational awareness and are not sure about the reasons behind various actions happening on the battlefield. Such situation is normally described as a ‘fog of war’. At present, a ‘fog of chemical warfare’ has been experienced over the Syrian theatre. It is a reality that chemical weapons are getting used and people are getting killed in this war. However, it is becoming increasingly difficult to exactly pinpoint the agency which is doing this act. There have been various claims and counterclaims about the people involved in these activities. Global agencies supported by the United Nations

June 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

25

Syria CHEMICAL WEAPONS ATTACKS

UN investigation team taking samples from sand to test for a chemical attack in Syria. have identified the miscreants;

a WMD, naturally stands banned

almost all countries in the world,

however, still some confusion

from usage. In addition, there are

barring very few, are signatories

prevails in certain cases.

other relevant rules of customary

to this mechanism. The OPCW

international law which could be

(Organisation for the Prevention of

interpreted as pointers

Chemical Weapons) is mandated

Since the end of 2012, there have

towards banning the use of

under this mechanism to

been various incidences of the

chemical weapons.

ensure the signatory States to

usage of chemical weapons on

this mechanism adhere to their

Syrian soil. Historically, the use

One of the significant conventions

of chemical weapons in warfare

commitments. Syria is party to

which do not permit the use of

stands banned under the 1925

CWC and on 14 October 2013,

chemical weapons is the 1992

Geneva Protocol. This convention

the CWC entered into force for

Chemical Weapons Convention

is about no use of weapons of

the Syrian Arab Republic, making

(CWC) mechanism. At global

mass destructions (WMDs) in the

it the 190th State Party to the

level, this is one of the most

wars and chemical weapons being

treaty. The OPCW is one of the

successful mechanisms and

most professional and respectable

Chemical Weapons Banned

26

June 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Syria was pressured for accession to the Chemical Weapons Convention and immediately, a joint mission of the UN and the OPCW was established.

This led to the successful removal of Syria’s declared chemical weapons OPCW worked very hard and just within approximately one year successfully destroyed 96 per cent of Syria’s declared chemical weapons stockpile. However, in spite of this, still chemical weapons are found being used in the Syrian theatre and this is raising the suspicion about actually who is using the chemical weapons on the battlefield.

Many Agendas Assad regime totally remains in a denial mode and is found organisations which has also won

investigation carried out by the UN

continuously arguing that they

the Nobel Peace prize. Presently,

fact-finding mission and a UNHRC

are not using any kind of chemical

OPCW is responsible to ensure

Commission of Inquiry. Syrian

weapons. However, except Russia

that Syrian State does not

Ba’athist military was the main

no one is ready to accept their

produce, procure, stockpile or use

suspect, due to a large arsenal

claim. Presently, Syria’s Civil

chemical weapons. However, it is

of such weapons in its custody.

War is being fought on multiple

important to appreciate that OPCW

Immediately after the reported

fronts. It is not a war amongst two

is more of a technical and policy

incidents of use of chemical

warring factions, but there are

organisation and not a security

weapons in 2013 international

many factions. There are fighters

or intelligence organisation.

community responded very swiftly.

belonging to different alliances.

Syria was pressured for accession

Amongst them every group have

Main Suspect

to the Chemical Weapons

different agenda to fight the war.

Convention and immediately, a

These groups also expect different

joint mission of the UN and the

end results and outcomes of

OPCW was established. This led to

this war. President Bashar al-

the successful removal of Syria’s

Assad aims to reassert control

declared chemical weapons. The

nationwide. He is being opposed

It is a reality that chemical weapons have been used in the Syrian theatre since last five years and United Nations have confirmed this fact based on the

June 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

27

Syria CHEMICAL WEAPONS ATTACKS

Conspiracy

mainly by Sunni Arab opposition

chlorine or sarin, a nerve

forces. While Islamic State (ISIS)

agent, is said to have been

is keen on erasing Syria’s border

used. Mostly, these attacks are

suspicion about who actually

and attaching parts of Iraq to have

known to be conducted by the

could be behind these attacks.

their own State. While Kurdish

Syrian government.

The US is convinced that Assad

militants have different agenda. In

regime is the real culprit and

addition, there are various factions

The US has been very vocal

they have already punished it

and sub-factions, which at times,

about punishing the users of the

for that. However, logically for

are found operating with their

chemical weapons. On occasions,

own agendas. On top of all this,

they have been found taking

Assad forces that have an upper

external powers like the West and

unilateral actions in this regard.

Russia have their own strategic

Around a year back on 4 April

calculations. They predominately

2017, chemical weapons were

use airpower to conduct their

used, killing more than 80 people.

operations. Midst all this chaos,

The US believed that this attack

sporadically chemical weapons are

had been carried out by Assad

found getting used and amongst

government. Hence, President

claims and counter-claims by

Trump gave the order to launch an

various factions, it actually

attack on the al-Shayrat airbase.

becomes difficult to decide the

A massive attack was launched

actual proliferators and users of

on this base and 59 Tomahawk

the chemical weapons.

missiles were shot. It was thought that such action could work

During last seven years in the Syrian conflict, possibly around 2,000 people have died owing to the use of chemical weapons. However, 2 to 4 lakh humans have been killed by conventional weapons

This recent attack raises a

hand in the conflict, no useful purpose could have been served by using chemical weapons. His administration is definitely not so naïve not to understand the international implications of such an act. He knows for sure that the world has no appetite for any chemical non-sense. Hence, there exists a possibility that just to put Assad in the dock, his opposing forces could have stage-managed this attack. However, such claim could be made with certitude only if correct evidence is available to that effect and in the ‘fog of war’ it is very unlikely that such evidence (if any) could ever be gathered.

The use of chemical weapons in Syrian theatre and the response

Assad Hand After any chemical weapons attack, the US and allied forces are always found presenting a proof to demonstrate the hand of Assad regime in carrying out such attacks. Though President Assad and Russia deny their involvement in such attacks, still at times they are also found not very cooperative towards OPCW to undertake investigation. As per the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic, at least 34 chemical attacks since 2013 have occurred and in many of which

28

as a deterrent and Assad forces would not use chemical weapons again. However, on 7 April 2018 the rebel-held town of Douma, east of Damascus again witnessed use of chemical weapons killing an estimated 40 people including children with lethal chlorine gas. In response, the United States and their allies attacked three facilities associated with Syria’s chemical weapons programme. They targeted a scientific research centre in the greater Damascus area, a chemical weapons storage facility west of Homs, and a chemical weapons equipment storage facility and command post, near Homs.

June 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

of the rest of the world to this use, also demonstrates the hypocrisy of modern day world. During last seven years in the Syrian conflict, possibly around 2,000 people have died owing to the use of chemical weapons. However, in this conflict, the overall deaths estimated owing to use of conventional weapons and other reasons are known to exceed 2 to 4 lakh humans. Still what gets often debated is the use of chemical weapons, the weapons which are possibly being used by all warring factions because they are the weapons to create mayhem, both physically and politically.

targeting Qatar DESTABILISATION A LA IRAQ AND SYRIA

INDIA

BEWARE

India’s External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj had termed the matter an intra-GCC affair, perhaps hinting to India’s traditional policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of the region and balancing its ties among the Arab nations and also with Iran. India has good diplomatic and economic ties with all GCC countries and with Iran as well and in the event of an open jostling for power and regional leadership, India will be required to walk a tightrope.

DR ARVIND KUMAR The writer is Professor of Geopolitics and International Relations at Manipal Academy of Higher Education (MAHE).

DR MONISH TOURANGBAM The writer is Assistant Professor (Senior Scale) at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, MAHE.

T

he world has

prominent. There are alignments

The involvement of United States,

been witnessing

of different permutations and

in particular in West Asian affairs,

the events in West

combinations, which in a way has

has raised series of questions

Asia, in general,

helped in forging complex types of

relating to the repercussions of

and Syria, in

groupings. There has always been

extra-regional powers in fuelling

particular, with

a division within the West Asian

the crisis in the region.

greater attention. The challenges

region. The geopolitics of West Asia

to regional peace and stability are

has been gaining salience because

On 5 June 2017, the members of

immense. The signs of new Cold

of inherent contradictions within

strategic community across the

War are becoming more and more

the region and various factions.

world were taken by surprise as

June 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

29

targeting Qatar DESTABILISATION A LA IRAQ AND SYRIA

Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United

with Iran were seen as major

The convergent interest between

Arab Emirates and Bahrain

drivers. The factors that prompted

US and Saudi Arabia regarding

snapped their ties with Qatar,

the diplomatic steps to target Qatar

Iran’s role in West Asia was made

accusing the latter of supporting

remain a matter of discourse among

quite categorical in the US-Saudi

terrorism. Saudi Arabia, UAE and

the members of academic and

Arabia joint statement released

Bahrain even announced their

strategic community. The events

during Trump’s visit to Saudi

decisions to close transport ties

unfolding since the decision to

Arabia. This was perhaps a signal

with Qatar, while giving Qatari

target Qatar require an in-depth

to countries like Qatar which has

visitors and residents two weeks to

analysis and assessment.

attempted to balance its relations

leave their countries. The official

Why Qatar Was Targeted?

accused Qatar of embracing

The tussle for regional leadership

note because Qatar is home to the

“multiple terrorist and sectarian

among the GCC countries and the

Al Udeid Air Base which houses

groups aimed at disturbing stability

moves that Qatar had made over

a number of personnel of the US

in the region, including the Muslim

the years, including the diplomatic

Central Command. The US-Saudi

Brotherhood, ISIS (Islamic State)

bandwidth that its news network,

Arabia joint statement, “agreed on

and Al Qaeda,” in addition to

Al Jazeera, has created, has been a

the need to contain Iran’s malign

Qatar’s attempts to fashion a foreign policy relatively independent of the GCC, external factors like the Trump administration’s approach to the region as well as Qatar’s relations with Iran were seen as major drivers

and Iran. This is very important to

interference in the internal affairs of other States, instigation of sectarian strife, support of terrorism and armed proxies, and efforts to destabilize the countries in the region.” It was signalled that there is going to be a distinct policy change towards Qatar.

calling out Qatar’s support to

major point of displeasure among

Trump’s About-face

Iranian-backed militants in Eastern

other Arab countries. There have

Trump’s tweets also reflected

Saudi Arabia and in Bahrain. All

been speculations on a number

support for the decision to target

these developments found a greater

of areas where it has been stated

Qatar and seem to give credit to

resonance in Trump’s thinking

that Qatar’s state news agency

his Saudi Arabia trip for unfolding

when he strongly made a statement

was hacked and planted fake news

and underscoring a new strategy to

against Qatar.

such as the Qatari rulers making

deal with the situations. However,

statements that displeased not

over the period, the Trump

only its GCC neighbours but also

Administration in a complete

This attempt mainly to isolate

the US government. It seems such

turnaround, reportedly, asked

Qatar by fellow Arab nations has

revelations were annoying both for

Saudi Arabia and other Arab states

significantly impacted analyses

the rest of members of GCC and the

to put an end to the economic

and assessments on the complex

United States. The twist and turns

blockade aimed at Qatar. Such

geopolitics of the Persian Gulf.

of the Trump Administration in its

decisions have been the bi-product

Besides intra-Gulf Cooperation

approach to the region have also

of the changing dimensions of

Council (GCC) dynamics involving

lent a sense of uncertainty to the

geopolitics. President Trump has

displeasure about Qatar’s

entire episode. A number of analysts

emphasised time and again while

attempts to fashion a foreign policy

suggested that President Donald

discussing with the leaders of Saudi

relatively independent of the GCC,

Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia in

Arabia, UAE and Qatar to stop

external factors like the Trump

May 2017 had emboldened GCC

terrorist financing and collectively

Administration’s approach to the

members to take such a dramatic

address the challenges emanating

region as well as Qatar’s relations

step against Qatar.

from terrorism.

Get Qatar

30

between GCC partners, the US

Saudi Press Agency in a statement,

June 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

President Trump during his first visit to Saudi Arabia in May 2017.

Besides, the underlying elements

negotiations with certain groups

formerly known as the Nusra Front

of displeasure among other Arab

and a payment of a $650 million

and an unspecified sum to the

nations regarding Qatar’s quest

ransom without their knowledge.

Lebanese Hezbollah.

for an independent foreign policy,

This was done to release 26

more particularly maintaining

members of a Qatari royal family

What It Means For India?

relations with Iran, and alleged

who were reportedly kidnapped

While the fallout of a regional

support to terrorist groups,

in Southern Iraq by the Iraqi

turmoil in the Gulf might not

an incident of kidnapping and

Shia militia Keta’eb Hezbollah.

portend a clear and present danger

ransom has also been cited as an

While it was reported that Keta’eb

for India, it certainly will have its

immediate driver of the diplomatic

Hezbollah reportedly fetched a

consequences from such actions.

upheaval in Gulf. Apparently,

major sum of the amount, smaller

It has invested in the region more

other countries in the region

portions went to Ahrar al-Sham,

particularly in terms of its energy

were not amused by Qatar’s

the Syrian Al Qaida affiliate

requirements and also the safety

June 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

31

targeting Qatar DESTABILISATION A LA IRAQ AND SYRIA

The Trump Administration in a complete turnaround, reportedly asked Saudi Arabia and other Arab States to put an end to the economic blockade aimed at Qatar. of its huge expatriate workforce in the region remains a question.

India has been obviously getting the supply of oil and gas from the region and despite recent efforts to diversify resources, this region will remain significant in the near future as far as India’s energy security is concerned. Peace and stability in the region is important in terms of consequences it could have for volatility in energy prices, and also for the safety and security of its citizens in the region which account for inflow of huge remittances crucial for maintaining public finances in India.

India’s External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj had termed

32

the matter an intra-GCC affair,

pragmatism and protection of its

perhaps hinting to India’s

vital interests in the region. India

traditional policy of non-

has stakes in the region pertaining

interference in the internal affairs

to the domain of trade, commerce

of the region and balancing its ties

and migration. But it does not have

among the Arab nations and also

the influence and the resources to

with Iran. “This is an intra-GCC

effectively alter internal dynamics

issue. We have good ties with both

in the region. In such a context,

Saudi and Qatar (the same way we

India, can with diplomatic caution,

have good ties with both Saudi and

raise the issue of the need for

Iran). And we will help any Indian

maintaining peace and stability in

who could possibly get affected

the region, but not at the expense

by it,” Sushma Swaraj said. India

of being accused as an external

has good diplomatic and economic

power seeking to intervene in the

ties with all GCC countries and

intra-regional affairs there.

with Iran as well and in the event of an open jostling for power and

Targeting Qatar will have serious

regional leadership, India will be

ramifications for the West Asian

required to walk a tightrope. India

region, in general, and the GCC,

needs to preserve its interests in

in particular. Such targeting will

the region, ranging from the safety

have triggering impact elsewhere

and security of the diaspora and

in the world. The extra-regional

the supply of oil and gas from

powers in West Asia would require

the region. For that, India has

to be cautious in their approaches

to monitor events closely in the

to the region because the negative

region. In the event of any major

consequences of such actions

upheaval, India has to brace up for

will be felt across the spectrum.

large scale evacuation operations

India has to be calibrating its

like the ones India has often done

strategy keeping its national

for the safety and security of its

interest paramount while dealing

citizens. India’s links with the

with the emerging situations

Arab countries have been based on

in West Asia.

June 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Doomsday Scenario INEVITABILITY OF CONFLICT

LT GEN SYED ATA HASNAIN PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, SM, VSM & BAR (RETD) The writer is a former GOC of the Srinagar based 15 Corps, now associated with Vivekanand International Foundation and Institute for Peace & Conflict Studies (IPCS). He frequently researches on the Middle East, Pakistan, China, issues concerning India’s internal security with emphasis on J&K, and the Indo-Pacific Region

SYRIA: THE ISRAELI FACTOR As the sharpest critic of the Iran Nuclear Deal of 2015, it would be happy with the US pullout but remains aware that this has also complicated the issue for the long term. Meanwhile the scope of further complications in the Syrian Civil War, involving interests of Turkey to prevent any Kurdish advantage; the continued Russian presence and even some boost to the morale and fighting capability of the Free Syrian Army; will assist in temporarily buying time for Israel. It appears to be prepared for what it may consider as inevitable; an approaching final confrontation with Iran and its proxies in Lebanon and Syria.

June 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

33

Doomsday Scenario INEVITABILITY OF CONFLICT

S

yria lying to the

the June 1967 War (Six Day

north of Israel and

War), Israel occupied the Golan

occupying a crucial

Heights that became the bone

part of the Levant

of contention between the two

is a strategically

countries. Syria did join the peace

key country and

process launched in Madrid in

territory which is crucial for peace

October 1991 but that led to no

in the Middle East. As a nation of

fruition on the Golan.

24 million, it has from the outset

Â

enjoyed a strained relationship

Syria-Israel ConflictÂ

with Israel. For decades, Israel

Hafez Assad, the longest ruling

viewed Syria as its most bitter

head of state of Syria and father

Arab enemy. Syria with its Arab

of Bashar Assad, the current

nationalism as powerful as that

President, had come to power

of Egypt under Nasser, has also

in 1970. He followed a strident

had border disputes with Israel

anti-Israel policy but was always

which drive the antipathy. During

unstable internally due to the

34

June 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Syria for its support to Iran became more isolated even within the Arab world; increasing its anti-Israeli stance even as the Arabs were compromising their opposition to Israel multiple sectarian divide within Syria. Although a member of the Allawite (closer to Shia) minority and the Baath Party, Assad had to step gingerly so as not

to upset the sectarian balance.

of Egypt who had died in 1970.

emerge with Iran, which is the key

The threats from the Sunni

A strong anti-Israeli stance was

to current dynamics. Only Iran

Muslim Brotherhood and other

necessary for this to take shape

could match Syria’s anti-Israel

Sunni supporters kept him on

in contrast to the adjusting and

stance and Syria had supported

tenterhooks although he made

compromising stand of Anwar

Iran during the Iran-Iraq War of

efforts to reach out to the Sunni

Sadat of Egypt (and Nasser’s

the Eighties against the general

clergy and give it a place in the

successor) who had accepted

approach taken by the other Arab

ruling hierarchy. Throughout his

negotiations at Camp David

countries. Of course, the Allawite-

30 years, Hafez Assad was beset

in 1978.

Shia (Iran being Shia) ideology

by two problems; externally, the

being closest, worked in terms

relationship with Israel based on

Through the eighties, Assad

of securement of the balance of

the key issue of the return of the

became more isolated as other

power in Middle East. Syria, for

Golan Heights; and internally, in

major Arab rulers deserted him.

its support to Iran, became more

balancing the sectarian influences.

After 1989 Russian (former Soviet)

isolated even within the Arab

However, another major factor

support also diluted forcing Assad

world; increasing its anti-Israeli

of that time was the manner in

to rebalance his relationship with

stance even as the Arabs was

which Assad saw himself as the

Israel; without success. Yet, a

compromising their opposition

next Pan-Arab leader after Nasser

stronger relationship started to

to Israel. For Israel, it meant the further strengthening of the strongest lobby against it based upon Iran’s adopted enmity to it.

In 2000, Hafez Assad died and was succeeded by Bashar Assad, his second son. During the early years of Bashar al-Assad’s reign, relations with United States became tense and Israeli-Syrian contacts were further severed.

Then, the Arab Spring came towards the end of the first decade of the millennium, as will be explained later in this essay.

Iran-Hezbollah Connection Before addressing the current situation in the Civil War in Syria and how Israeli interests are involved, it is important to briefly recount the role of Iran, its enmity with Israel and US interests’ and how it emerged as an important player in Syria. The initial aspects of the Iran-Syria relationship and its effect on Arab politics, has already been explained above.

Since its founding in the eighties

June 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

35

Doomsday Scenario INEVITABILITY OF CONFLICT

as a part of Lebanon’s Civil War,

priorities. Iran refurbished its

Hezbollah has relied heavily on

military capability after 1991 and

Iran for financial, political and

prepared to take up the leadership

military support. It was founded

of Islam. Its enmity with the US

by the Iranian Revolutionary

due to the 444 days hostage

Guard in 1982 to fight against

drama in 1979-1981 and avowed

Israel during the Lebanese War. It

intent to see the end of Israel put

was the beginning of the muscling

it firmly on one side with Syria, a

for influence which Iran was

close partner. At the same time, its

attempting in the Arab world; its

ambition to secure itself through

other confrontation being against

enlarged influence in the geo-

Iraq at about the same time.

strategically important parts of the

Hezbollah grew out of proportion

Middle East brought to it the need

since then and in 2006, entered

to look at the Levant as one such

into an open conflict with Israel.

crucial area. The Levant is the

broad band of territory stretching

The circumstances and events that

from the West Iranian border

brought the situation to such a

through northern Iraq and Syria

head with Hezbollah as the chief

to Lebanon. Strategically, this is

proxy of Iran are interesting and

the link between the Middle East

bear significance in relation to

and Europe. Its eastern part has

the situation in Syria today. This

openings into the Mediterranean

needs to be linked to the earlier

with the crucial port of Latakia

explanation of the situation which

which remains a Russian naval

evolved in the time of Hafez Assad

facility, the only one outside the

(Bashar Assad’s father). It was

Black Sea in this region. Thus,

the Iranian Revolution of 1979

Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, plus

which changed much of the Middle

the northern territories of the

East. By then Israel had already

Kurds are all important grounds

vanquished the Arab armies in

for Iran, not the least because of

four military contests in 1948,

the physical proximity to Israel,

1956, 1967 and 1973. Egypt had

with Syria and Lebanon sharing

sought peace in 1978 and the back

boundaries with Israel and thus,

of Arab resistance had

by implication extending Iran’s

been broken.

reach and capacity to hurt it.

Further dilution of this was to

Israel-Hezbollah War Of 2006

occur once the Cold War ended

I visited Israel in 2017, to attend

in 1989 but ten years before that

the high profile World Counter-

(1979) Iran overthrew its ruler, the

Terrorism Conference at Herzilya.

Shah, spurned its US and other

Earlier, in 2006, I had toured

western connects and became

most of the territories of Israel

Ayotollah Phenomenon

an Islamic republic. The clerical leadership which took charge swore the destruction of Israel as one of its ideological and security

36

from Jerusalem to the Lebanese

Israel’s worry has always been the sheer complexity which cannot determine who or which entity will emerge the winner Hezbollah and it had not gone the characteristic way the world was used to; Israel had not been able to smother Hezbollah the way the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) had done the same to the Arab armies in the past. It emboldened the Hezbollah no end. It was also the time when Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had taken his war of words against Israel to a high pitch. Israel’s great achievements in the field of military technology and agriculture had given it tremendous confidence but in end of 2006 that appeared slightly dented. During the recent visit in 2017, eleven years later, the geopolitics had undergone further change forcing Israel’s complete focus to be resting upon Hezbollah, Iran and the situation in Syria. The most marked learning for me, and relatively less known to the world was the Israeli revelation that with the increasing control of Iran over Syrian space, the routes of supply to Hezbollah have been exploited to build up an arsenal of guided missiles in Lebanon. All are under Hezbollah control and the figure quoted was a staggering 1,30,000, enough to smother Israel.

border through the fascinating

Syrian Civil War

biblical route. In 2006, it was

In 2011, successful uprisings

the period just after the war with

aiming towards liberal democracy

June 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Syrian Army defectors after they joined the anti-regime protesters.

- that became known as the Arab

Sunni-majority countries, including

eventual victory. Russia’s main

Spring - toppled Tunisia’s and

Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia

concern has been the security

Egypt’s presidents. This gave hope

supported anti-Assad rebels driving

of Latakia and the connected air

to Syrian pro-democracy activists

the conflict into the sectarian fold.

base besides the stability of its

and Syria went into turbulence.

long standing ally in the Middle

Bashar Assad responded to the

The Civil War quickly became a

East. The US and its allies, on the

protests by killing hundreds of

complex conflict involving proxies

other hand, have always perceived

demonstrators and imprisoning

of different countries with varying

that Russian military presence

many more. In July 2011, defectors

ideologies some only marginally

emboldens Bashar Assad to

from the military announced the

different to each other. Israel’s

formation of the Free Syrian Army,

worry has always been the sheer

a rebel group aiming to overthrow

complexity which cannot determine

the government, and Syria slid into

who or which entity will emerge

Civil War. While the protests in

the winner. With the US preferring

2011 were mostly non-sectarian, the armed conflict surfaced starker sectarian divisions. The governments of majority-Shia Iran and Iraq, and Lebanon-based Hezbollah supported Assad, while

undertake human rights violations and go to the extent of employing

to remain outside the ambit of

chemical weapons against the population to gain military advantage.

physical involvement, the Russian

Identifying The Proxies

entry into the war in 2015 has

For interest, it is important to

added concern for Israel which sees

know who the proxies are and how

Russia as a guarantor of Bashar

they contribute to the complexity

Assad’s continuance through

through the highly diffused

June 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

37

Doomsday Scenario INEVITABILITY OF CONFLICT

interests. There are strains of

have travelled to Europe and

appropriate message is in place

Salafis such as Al Nusra supported

its linked conflict rages in

that Israel will not hesitate to fight

by Saudi Arabia and Qatar. In view

Yemen. How does this affect

for survival. Israel has defended

of the US opposition to Bashar

Israel’s security?

its territory and responded to

Assad, it has virtually been on

cross-border strikes, bombed

the side of the Al Qaeda and Al

While recognising that Israel

Hezbollah operatives and weapon

Nusra in opposition to Hezbollah

has little to no influence on the

transfers, provided clandestine

and the Iranian forces such as the

course of events in Syria, Israel’s

support to anti-regime Syrians,

Quds Army. Yet, it is best not to

leaders have largely reached a

and diplomatically engaged

view this conflict through a binary

consensus that Assad’s departure

Moscow. It has vastly improved its

approach and that has been

from power is preferable. He has

relationship with Saudi Arabia and

Israel’s biggest problem, fearing

gone far beyond to support Iran’s

has in President Trump the fullest

that the victory or defeat of any

interests through his own survival.

support of the US.

of the many parties will still play

Although lacking influence, Israel

against its interests; the war after

is fully alive to the interests of Iran

Nuke Dimension

all is being played out right across

being served through an Iran-

As the sharpest critic of the Iran

its boundaries.

Russia-Assad-Hezbollah advantage

Nuclear Deal of 2015, it would be

which appears to be on the cards.

happy with the US pullout but

While recognising that Israel has little to no influence on the course of events in Syria, Israel’s leaders have largely reached a consensus that Assad’s departure from power is preferable

remains aware that this has also complicated the issue for the long term. If the remaining signatories to the Deal cannot keep it in place outside US support it will add to the rogue effect on Iran’s response. One of the first to suffer the consequences would be Israel.

For good measure a mention of

As per a Rand Corporation

While President Trump undertakes

ISIS (Daesh) is also relevant. Its

Research Paper, by Larry Hanauer

his strategy of bringing regime

presence in large tracts of Iraqi

- “Israel seeks to minimize

change in Iran, Israel would be

and Syrian territory (centered

Iranian and Russian influence

realistic to realise that this is not

on Mosul and Raqqa as the last

in Syria, block the transfer of

easy and there is no guarantee.

strongholds) helped prolong the

advanced weapons to Hezbollah,

Meanwhile the scope of further

Civil War but even now with its

prevent Syria from posing a

complications in the Syrian Civil

defeat there appears no certainty

credible military threat to Israel

War, involving interests of Turkey

on which side the final

or permitting Iran to do so,

to prevent any Kurdish advantage,

advantage will go.

undermine the legitimacy of Syria’s

the continued Russian presence

claims to the Golan Heights, and

and even some boost to the morale

Israel’s Identified Interests

prevent Sunni militants from

and fighting capability of the

establishing infrastructure or

Free Syrian Army, will assist in

More than 465,000 Syrians have

operational bases along Israel’s

temporarily buying time for Israel.

been killed in the fighting, over

border”. Its military options are

It appears to be prepared for what

a million injured, and over 12

limited and almost none except

it may consider as inevitable; an

million - half the country’s prewar

to respond against Iranian and

approaching final confrontation

population - have been displaced.

Hezbollah targeted bombing

with Iran and its proxies in

The effects of the Syrian implosion

of Israeli territory so that an

Lebanon and Syria.

38

June 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Turkish expansionism

THE KURDISH QUESTION

DR PANKAJ JHA The writer is senior faculty with Jindal School of International Affairs (JSIA) and Editor-in- Chief of the JSIA Journal. He was Director (Research) with Indian Council of World Affairs and had worked as Deputy Director with National Security Council Secretariat. He teaches national, international security, and defence strategy.

I

n the year 2016, there was a tussle between Turkey

TURNING CLOCK

and Iraq about the possible role that Turkey can play in liberating Mosul, one of the critical cities located in

the northern part of Iraq from the clutches of the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL-Daesh).

BACK TO OTTOMAN EMPIRE How Kurdish identity and their resolve for a nation-State are addressed would always figure in the Syrian peace process because western powers and also, Russia to a large extent would want a Kurdish buffer between the regional powers.

June 2018

This was followed with Turkish irredentism and the hyper reaction from the civil society groups in Turkey seeking the redrawing the boundaries of the nation as per the Ottoman Empire. According to these groups, Mosul belonged to Turkey as part of the greater Turkey. Assailing the Treaty of Lausanne, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that unfair treatment meted out in the treaty left Turkey much smaller than the historical map.

He outlined that it was in the

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

39

Turkish expansionism

THE KURDISH QUESTION

Redrawing Borders

country’s interest to redefine

group population was divided

the borders to protect ethnic

between the borders of Iran, Iraq,

minorities and also buttress its

Syria and Turkey. According

in Syria in which more than 30

claims to the Iraqi city of Mosul.

to the historical records, they

terror groups as well as anti-Assad

have been living in the hilly

groups started operating in the

areas located between southern

critical space which lacked any

periphery of Lake Van and

civilian administration and the

Lake Urmia. This geographical

period in the last three years is

landmass was claimed as the

seen as the phase when the so

Kurdistan by the Kurds. In order

called historical mistakes by the

to put across their demands for

colonial masters can be corrected

separate homeland, the Kurdish

according to the power equation.

population also started political

In this regard, Turkey which

participation since 1970s through

aspires for the European Union

Kurdish Workers Party (PKK)

membership and is the member

and Kurdistan Democratic

of NATO tried multiple times

Party (KDP) in Turkey and Iraq

to invoke the support of NATO

respectively. Later in 1990s,

under Article 5 of the charter

they galvanized themselves as

so as to seek NATO military

Peshmerga (freedom fighters) in

assistance to claim borders and

Iraq and adjoining areas. Following

redefine its national geography

seizure of their area by the ISIL

but was snubbed by the military

Vivisection of Ottoman Empire The Treaty of Lausanne was imposed by the Allies on the Ottoman Empire after World War I under which Turkey borders were redrawn. This was not recognized

by Mustafa Kemal Pasha and his nationalist government of Turkey during that time citing irrational and unfair borders.

Taking cognizance of President Erdogan argument ramped up nationalism activated Turkish media which started playing the issue of Turkish pride by showing the military might of Turkish

The prolonged war and civil strife

alliance. This claim of irredentist

Russia and many other western powers want an early end to the Syrian crisis and in this case the return of seized territories to Syria by Turkey might be the first trade-off

cartography and rhetoric give a fair idea of the aspirations of Turkey which wants to play a regional power with greater strategic outreach. While the narrative given

by President Erdogan is accepted then the same claims would be

forces fighting with Kurdish forces

claim a Greater Iran and the other

fighting the Deash to reclaim

countries might project historical

their territory and establish their

claims about their borders. As

land. They have been supported

expected this hyper nationalism

by many European powers and

of Turkey was countered by the

even US. Iraqi Kurdish fighters

nationalist groups in Greece,

its borders.

better known as the Peshmerga,

Bulgaria, Armenia, Syria, Iran and

the People’s Defense Units (YPG

Azerbaijan citing their historical

Kurdistan

of Syria), and Kurdish Workers

maps as the claims for return to

Party (PKK) have been engaged in

the 19th century borders.

the fight against ISIS but US, in

order to assuage its NATO partner,

Mosul, the city of Iraq, had its

claims that it supports Peshmarga

imprints in history. Citing the

and YPG but has no links with

Turkey’s National Pact, Erdogan

PKK as it is listed as Foreign

justified his country’s interest in

Terrorist Organisation by the US

Mosul. The pact was signed after

State Department.

defeat of the Ottoman Empire in

while at the same time engaging the Greece air force in show of air power over Aegean sea. This was meant to showcase the legitimate claims of Turkey to redefine

In this historical political narrative, the Kurdish people were seen as the aggrieved community who had been promised a Kurdish nation by the colonial powers when new nations were carved out of the Ottoman Empire but the northwestern Iranic ethnic

40

reflected by Iran which might forces; the Kurdish fighters were

in Syria to protect their territory

June 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Russian and Turkish leaders at the official launch of first nuclear power station in Mersin, Turkey.

The prolonged war and civil strife in Syria is seen as the phase when the so called historical mistakes by the colonial masters can be corrected according to the power equation World War I. The pact recognized those parts of the Ottoman Empire which Turkey was prepared to fight for. The justification for this was the fact that even

when armistice was signed by

brought peace and development

Constantinople with the allied

to this country as the increased

powers, Turkey’s southern border

collaboration with European

included areas north of Aleppo to

powers established Turkey was

Kirkuk in Iraq.

a moderate and modern Islamic

State. Erdogan, projecting himself

Neo-Ottomanism

as a great nationalist leader, tried

The redrawn maps under Treaty

to shape the narrative as ‘neo-

of Lausanne led to fight between

Ottomanism’. Projecting Kamal

the European allies and Turkish

Ataturk as a weak statesman

troops led by Mustafa Kemal

who abandoned Turkey’s claim to

Ataturk defeated European

Mosul and the Greek islands in the

forces and established modern

Aegean Sea, he promises his fellow

Turkey. However post-withdrawal

countrymen to reclaim the lost

of the European forces, Turkey

territory. This neo-Ottomanism

under Ataturk had forgone the

has been criticised by its

claim to its lost parts of territory

Arab neighbours.

and which to a large extent

As a collateral effect of his

June 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

41

Turkish expansionism

THE KURDISH QUESTION

Kurdish Militia delighted after the support of US.

42

Assimilation

irredentism, in Syria and Iraq,

PKK. Meanwhile, the Turkic

President Erdogan claims to have

ethnic population in Mosul has

defeated Kurdistan Workers’ Party

been an asset for Ankara in Iraq.

Special Forces of Turkish armed

(PKK), by giving a new dimension

Turkish army along with Iraqi

forces along with its militia and

to foreign policy through engaging

Turkmen Front has been working

other allies have fully seized Afrin

Turkish minorities in other

for the last one and half decades

enclave located in the northwest of

nations. One such group which is

to expand Turkish influence, and

Syria. President Erdogan launched

known as Sultan Murad Brigade,

curb PKK activities in northern

Operation Olive Branch to capture

composed of ethnic Turkmen, has

Iraq. Turkey’s active support to

Kurdish Democratic Union Party

elevated itself to become one of the

Free Syrian Army (FSA) ushered a

(PYD) dominated towns of Tell

armed militia working for Turkey’s

new era in Turkey’s foreign policy

Abyad, Hasakah, Kobani, Manbij,

larger objectives against Bashar

clearly mirroring Erdogan’s

and other Kurdish-dominated

al-Assad’s regime as well as the

neo-Ottomanism.

towns. Turkish leader has also

June 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

According to the news reports, the

put up plans to set up governance structures in Afrin, the newly seized town. Erdogan’s plan to appoint a new governor for Afrin was criticised by Russia. In April 2018, Erdogan announced military offensive into Sinjar, Iraq’s northwestern town which has predominantly Kurdish population. This in a way ushers in neo-Ottomanism while at the same time undermines Kurds desire for an independent nation in post-Syrian conflict scenario.

Earlier, also in 2015, Turkish fighter jets had bombed Qandil, Behdinan, Zap, Xakurke, Gare, Basye, Amedia, and Avasin towns in Iraq which were claimed to be part of South Kurdistan. The assault which was launched in July 2015 was meant to annihilate the PKK guerillas and its supporters.

Erdogan’s fishing in troubled waters would create more problems in future with many Arab states and also Iran trying to carve out new territories out of crisis struck nations. Erdogan with a strong support from his party, AKP, has hinted a strong urge to reinvent Ottoman rule. The annexation of Syrian territories such as Afrin, Jarabulus and Al-Bab might help Turkey to relocate its refugees to these areas and thereby, changing the whole demographic composition of these Kurdish dominated territories. While

hosts about three million

Erdogan, projecting himself as a great nationalist leader, tried to shape the narrative as ‘neo-Ottomanism’

Syrian refugees wants to relocate these refugees to the newly captured townships.

US Role The new found hyper-activism supported by Turkish nationalism

might have to face the military

would need the US support which might not be very keen on the issue as US has been silently supporting Kurds for their homeland. Within US also, there has been support of the civil society groups to undo the historical injustice to the Kurds.

might of the two nations in future.

While Russia and many other western powers want an early end to the Syrian crisis and in this case, the return of seized territories to Syria by Turkey might be the first trade-off. Any further military

Syrian government might raise

aggression by Turkey would also

the issue of illegal occupation of

jeopardise Astana Peace process

its territories by Turkey in the UN

where Turkey is getting a positive

and then, Erdogan will have to

response from both Russia and

face very tough questions in the international organisation. Once

Iran. How Kurdish identity and

it is declared as the aggressor for

their resolve for a nation-State are

violating sovereign territory of Syria

addressed would always figure in

then even the NATO members

the Syrian peace process because

might not be able to support

western powers and also, Russia

Erdogan’s ambitions. Turkey’s

to a large extent would want

nemesis for Turkish military for

expansionism will meet Russia

a Kurdish buffer between the

more than 40 years. Turkey which

and Iranian resistance and Turkey

regional powers.

Turkey shared a border of 930 km with Syria, the northern parts of Syria, about 800 km of the border were inhabitated by Syrian Kurds.

Turkey’s new launched military offensive is to annihilate PKK—the

June 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

43

protect social fabric LESSONS FROM ISIS GROWTH

IT COULD HAPPEN IN INDIA TOO Suddenly Syria has become a synonym of WAR. So much has happened in the past four and half years that it looks like a nightmare. All of sudden the entire focus of superpower rivalry has come to bear on Syria. I think we need to understand the genesis and consequences of events that have led to the massacres in the Afghanistan-Levant salient and take due preventive measures to avoid some similar destabilisation in trouble-torn areas of our own geography.

44

June 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

W

Utter Chaos

major powers and few, if any, are hat began

clear about who is doing what in

in March

Syria and why except that they

2011 as

appear to enjoy themselves in

revolutionary

shredding apart innocent people.

slogans on the

Mayhem prevails and the map

walls of a school in the southern

of the region is being drawn

city of Deraa by teenagers and

and redrawn by the month and

the subsequent harsh response of

people of the region and the vast

the Assad regime to the student

hinterland in Europe are paying

unrest underscores the tinderbox

the price of mindless interference

nature of geopolitics around the

in the internal affairs of nations

globe. After security forces opened

through regime-change operations

fire on demonstrators, killing

and instigation of religious and

several, more took to the streets.

ethnic divisions.

Currently, Syria has become the cynosure of attention of all the

PAWAN AGRAWAL The writer is Publisher and Chief Executive Officer of Defence and Security Alert (DSA) magazine.

Comparisons Arise I would like to compare the situation as prevailing in the

The Civil War in Syria gave

Syria/Iraq salient to what is

opportunity to jihadist

happening in some parts of India

troublemakers like Abu Bakr Al-

as well. Learning lessons from

Baghdadi to capture territory in

the genesis of current conflicts

both Iraq and Syria and declare the creation of the Islamic State

India needs to pay greater attention to conflict situations within the country which point to similar disasters engulfing the nation

of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Mindless destruction was the hallmark of the Al-Baghdadi regime resulting in millions of people being displaced internally and a similar number fleeing to neighbouring countries (and even seeking asylum in faraway America).

Foreign Interference As, in Iraq, in recent history

around the globe, India needs to

and Yugoslavia, in the not-too-

pay greater attention to conflict

distant past, religious and ethnic

situations within the country

distinctions were exacerbated by

which point to similar disasters

external powers till Yugoslavia

engulfing the nation. It is the

(which had managed its polity

time now to make an intelligent

well enough to remain united

assessment of the internal security

under Joseph Broz Tito) suddenly

dangers and take appropriate

imploded after his death. Regime

measures to nip the dangers

change attempts in Iraq operated

in the bud.

under the camouflage of giving

June 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

45

protect social fabric LESSONS FROM ISIS GROWTH

pre-eminence to a majority

in Syria has been Sunni within

belief. Reports of the use of

oppressed by a villainous

the Alawite regime and the

chemical weapons in Syria have

minority regime. The events in

Baathist orientation of its political

not resulted in an organized

Libya and now in Syria illustrate

structure. President Donald

attempt to find and identify the

the consequences ever more

Trump unashamedly instigated

culprits. The expert team of the

horrendous inflicted on innocent

the Sunni Arab regimes against

Organisation for Prohibition of

populations that lose hearths and

the Shia Iranians, thereby

Chemical Weapons (OPCW) –

homes, livelihoods and human

widening the area of conflict

the watchdog of the Chemical

dignity to satisfy the geopolitical

and dragging India into a

Weapons Convention – was pre-

designs of foreign powers. The

morass of economic and

empted from investigating the

consequence is mayhem.

geopolitical consequences.

reports of use of chemical weapons

Wars of this kind are, in essence,

War Crimes Obfuscated

strikes launched against Syria

weapons of mass destruction by

Even the UN Commission of

in much the same manner as

themselves. They give birth to new

Enquiry has quoted that war

the destruction of a milk powder

weapon platforms that wreak more

crimes have been evident in

manufacturing unit in Iraq under

damage per tonne of metal than

Syria and millions of people have

the excuse of “taking out” pre-

ever before. Long-range stand-off

been killed, women raped and

cursor chemicals that could be

air strikes are used to protect own

children traumatised beyond

used for chemical weapons.

by the multi-national coalition air

aircraft from being destroyed by land-based air defence systems of the victim nation. Not all airborne operations lead to control

None of the governments in the State or in the Centre have shown any inclination to ensure the safe return of the Kashmiri Pandits to their homeland

Shakespeare underscores how conflicts engender new kinds of weapons in Macbeth where he has the witches sing that horrible dirge:

and domination on the ground.

Invading nations are chary of putting boots on the ground for fear of bringing home body bags and igniting local passions.

The Civil War in Syria has also been turned into a Shia and Sunni conflict because President Assad is a Shia and the majority

46

June 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Double double toil and trouble, Fire burn and cauldron bubble.

Fillet of a fenny snake, In the caldron boil and bake; Eye of newt and toe of frog, Wool of bat and tongue of dog, Adder’s fork and blind-worm’s sting, Lizard’s leg and howlet’s wing, For a charm of powerful trouble, Like a hell-broth boil and bubble….

End War This is reason enough to avoid wars and instigating unrests around the globe. But no, wars help stoke the economies of the attacking nation. And attacks are no longer frontal but clandestine and executed by proxies. It is called hybrid warfare and its manifestations are being seen almost daily in the suicide bomb attacks in Afghanistan.

The State and Central governments must act expeditiously to contain the fallout of a dangerous kind of social engineering that is raising its ugly head within the country

Kashmiri Youth - Negative Vibes the current Central and the State

in the State or in the Centre have

The reason for writing this piece is

government. If members of a

shown any inclination to ensure

to create awareness in India of the

particular community are being

the safe return of the Kashmiri

similar situations coming to notice

forced to sell their properties at

Pandits to their homeland.

in some parts of our own country.

throwaway prices then I will not

Some anti-national elements have suddenly started painting some objectionable slogans on the walls of the homes of a particular community because of which people have started migrating which is quite alarming. I don’t think the government has taken it seriously enough and there is still a casual approach by the entire government machinery to handle this situation.

hesitate to wave a red flag at the possibility of India becoming another mayhem after Syria.

Kashmir Situation We all have seen what has happened in Kashmir region in J&K. Thousands of Kashmiri Pandits were killed and injured and their women were raped by the anti-social elements and we could not save them from such

India is already facing lots of problems–internally as well as externally, and there are forces that are just waiting and watching to take advantage of the situation.

Their interference could exacerbate matters beyond control.

Since we have already seen such mayhem in J&K and it could happen in any other State as well

atrocities or rehabilitate them.

the State and Central governments

Still, these Kashmiri Pandits have

must act expeditiously to contain

Such incidents may take an ugly

not been able to return to their

the fallout of a dangerous kind of

turn any time as there would

ancestral homes in the Kashmir

social engineering that is raising its

always be resentment towards

valley. None of the governments

ugly head within the country.

June 2018

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

47

West Asia Minefield TREAD GINGERLY

HOT WAR IN SYRIA AND OPTIONS FOR INDIA

Given the regional balance of power, it is likely that the local and regional actors will not be interested in escalation of the hot war beyond Syria. But in the unlikely scenario, India’s ability to maintain friendly relations with all regional adversaries namely Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel and Turkey and its ability to balance its relations between global powers namely the US, Russia and China will be severely tested. India will do well to work with all stakeholders and multinational organisations to prevent the Syrian conflict to become a regional conflict.

T

he Civil War in

refuge in neighbouring countries

neighbourhood and threatens to

Syria has ravaged

while another seven million have

escalate into a regional conflict.

the country, took

been internally displaced. The war

Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey and

the life of nearly

has been raging since 2011 with

Israel—all bordering countries—

500,000 people and

the active involvement of several

have been varyingly affected.

has forced more

local, regional and international

Iraq has gradually promised to

actors. It has affected the

regain peace and stability after the

than five million Syrians to take

48

June 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

military defeat of the Islamic State

Islamists in Homs had joined the

(ISIS). Lebanon and Jordan remain

opposition against the regime and

politically and militarily fragile but

its alleged atrocities. They also met

have not been completely drawn

the same fate as the protestors

into the Syrian fire. On the other

in Damascus and Hama. It did

hand, the military and political

not help that countries such as

involvement of Iran has provoked

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar and

serious regional containment

Jordan became involved in the

efforts led by Israel and Saudi

crisis and extended financial

Arabia. The involvement of the

aid and weapons to opposition

US and Russia has transformed

groups and encouraged them to

the crisis into a global geopolitical

form organised resistance. Thus,

MD MUDDASSIR QUAMAR

hotspot, reviving the memories of

the Free Syrian Army (FSA) was

the Cold War.

formed in July 2011 but the

group soon degenerated into a

The writer is Associate Fellow in IDSA, New Delhi. A doctorate in International Relations from JNU, his research articles have appeared in international peer-reviewed journals.

He regularly contributes opinion articles for media in India and serves as Associate Editor of Contemporary Review of the Middle East.

Multiple Complexities

loose alliance of competing and

The war in Syria is more complex

ideologically opposing factions and

than normally understood. At

could not withstand the onslaught

the local level, it was a rebellion

of the Syrian military.

against the Bashar al-Assad

regime to a large extent led

Rise of ISIS

by youth belonging to various

In the meanwhile, transnational

the region. Tehran directly got

Islamist groups including the

In 2018, the Syria crisis has reached a new stage. With the defeat of the local opposition militants and the ISIS, Russia, Iran and Turkey have emerged as the leading actors

involved in Syria on behalf of the

Muslim Brotherhood supported

regime with a strategic calculus of

by Turkey and Qatar, the Salafist

expanding its regional influence

militants supported by Saudi Arabia and to some extent, Jordan and terrorist groups such as Al

resistance to the US geopolitical domination in the Middle East.

Qaeda and ISIS found a fertile ground to establish bases in Syria.

The ISIS was especially successful in breaching the security and take control of territories especially in

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) not only came to the rescue of the regime, it also brought Hezbollah combatants from Lebanon and formed,

eastern and south-eastern parts

trained and armed Shia militia

of the country but also a few

from within Syria and abroad to

populated pockets in the north,

fight against the rebels and other

northwest and southwest. It is

transnational militants who were

ideological inclinations but at

on the basis of these advances

the core demanding a more

made in Syria that in June 2014

open political system and better

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi announced

economic opportunities. The

the foundation of global Islamic

regime saw this as an externally

Caliphate in Mosul. Nonetheless,

induced conspiracy to topple it

by this time the Syrian regime

and used the security forces to

finding it difficult to withstand

crackdown on the protestors. By

the multiple onslaughts from the

this time Sunni tribes in Dera‘a

opposition militants had reached

and Muslim Brotherhood inspired

out to Iran and its proxies in

June 2018

and strengthening a regional

all branded as terrorists by the regime.

Obama Hesitation Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan continued to extend financial and military support to various groups. The US, under Barack Obama Administration,

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

49

West Asia Minefield TREAD GINGERLY

and its franchises started to run

in the Syrian Civil War after the

over parts of Syria and committed

disastrous campaign in Libya.

inhuman atrocities on the

When the Obama Administration

populace resistant to its ideology.

did not militarily intervene on

It was at this point that the Civil

behalf of the opposition, after

War in Syria transformed into

the Ghouta chemical attack in

a much larger conflict involving

August 2013, which was seen as

transnational terrorist groups,

the US going back on the red-

armed local militants supported

line it has set for Syria, it caused

by various regional powers,

was fighting on multiple fronts

serious disappointment not only

Shia militias supported by Iran,

and finding it difficult to sustain

among the rebels but also in

Kurdish Peshmerga fighters, the

a war against various enemies

Riyadh, Ankara and Tel Aviv.

Syrian regime, Iran, Turkey and

on several fronts and sought the

The opposition and their regional

the US. Towards mid-2015, the

support of Russia.

benefactors recognised that the

regime had lost control of several

Â

US will not overtly get involved

major towns and cities and had

Russian Intervention

in the war in Syria. As the local

seen several reverses despite

In September 2015, Moscow

situation was degenerating into

the support received from Iran,

decided to get actively involved

a murderous stalemate, the ISIS

Hezbollah and Shia militias. It

in the Syrian theatre and started

US forces in the town of Mabij, Syria

50

India’s geopolitical interests in the Middle East and its recent forays in the region make it vulnerable to a variety of dangers

was wary of overt involvement

June 2018 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

an air campaign to disseminate

and Qatar have been relegated

of its crude oil from the region, will

the ISIS as well as the opposition

into marginal players. However,

be badly affected. India’s energy

militants. However, with the ISIS

the Trump Administration’s two

security will also be impacted and

threatening to advance to other

strikes inside Syria (April 2017

can lead to serious inflation and

regional countries, all actively

and April 2018) to underscore

chaos in the domestic market.

involved parties including the

its commitments towards

Secondly, the large number of

regime, Shia militias, Hezbollah,

humanitarian intervention and

Indian expatriates living in the

Kurdish Peshmerga and the

prevent use of chemical weapons

region will be vulnerable and if the

FSA aided by their regional and

on civilians and Israel’s forays into

Gulf countries are affected, New

international benefactors decided

Damascus to counter the growing

Delhi will have to act swiftly to

to focus on the fight against the

Iranian military presence has again

rescue its citizens. Thirdly, India’s

ISIS with an objective to defeat it

threatened to escalate the conflict

trade and commercial investments,

and expand their own territorial

into a regional war. The situation

both in and from the region, will be

control and fight other enemies

has been exasperated due to the

badly affected.

later. Nonetheless, the active

decision of the US to withdraw

involvement of Russia completely

The involvement of the US and Russia has transformed the crisis into a global geopolitical hotspot, reviving the memories of the Cold War

changed the nature of the war from a local and regional conflict to a global quest for geopolitical influence. Russia entered Syria on the back of its advances in the Caucuses. American reluctance to get directly involved provided

from the Joint Comprehensive Plan

it with an opportunity to return

of Action (JCPOA) on 8 May and

to the Middle East. While the ISIS

the immediate reaction of Iran to

was militarily defeated eventually,

target Israeli military installation

within a year of its involvement,

in Golan Heights. Israel responded

Moscow was able to change the

by sending a barrage of missiles

balance of power in the Syrian

towards Damascus and this has

Civil War with the regime getting

led to increased fears of a regional

the much needed support and

conflict involving Iran and Israel.

gaining an upper hand. The fall

Thus, the war in Syria has reached

of Aleppo in December 2016 from

the threshold of engulfing the

the hands of the FSA and other

whole region which will have

militants demonstrated that

wider security and geopolitical

Russia had succeeded in

implications not only for the

rescuing the regime.

neighbouring countries but for

the whole world.

Signs of Regional War

In 2018, the Syria crisis has

India’s Vulnerabilities

reached a new stage. With the

India’s geopolitical interests in the

defeat of the local opposition

Middle East and its recent forays

militants and the ISIS, Russia,

in the region makes it vulnerable

Iran and Turkey have emerged as

to a variety of dangers. Firstly,

the leading actors who are trying

any regional conflict will suddenly

to stabilise the situation while

lead to rise in oil prices, and India,

the US, Saudi Arabia, Jordan

which imports nearly 60 per cent

June 2018

In this context, what are the options for India? India has so far relied on its time-tested policy of keeping away from a direct involvement in outside conflicts. It has been urging regional actors to practice restraint and use the option of negotiations to resolve problem. However, the regional dynamics is such that the regional actors are not ready to get into negotiations. Given the regional balance of power, it is likely that the local and regional actors will not be interested in escalation of the hot war beyond Syria. But in the unlikely scenario, India’s ability to maintain friendly relations with all regional adversaries namely Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel and Turkey and its ability to balance its relations between global powers namely the US, Russia and China will be severely tested. India will do well to work with all stakeholders and multinational organisations to prevent the Syrian conflict to become a regional conflict.

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

51

May 2018

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