Defence and Security Alert Magazine (DSA) June 2017 Edition by Ocean Media

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hina recently hosted the One Belt One Road (OBOR) conference, which India predictably boycotted on account of sovereignty issues. The OBOR aims to be the biggest trade and infrastructure venture in the global history. China’s motives stem from its deep desire to recreate the mood of the Middle Kingdom which it believes is its rightful place. There is nothing charitable or equitable in China’s venture. And as previous experience suggests the participating countries tend to get tied up with loans and expenses that make the infrastructure projects rather uni-beneficial. Who benefits is plain to the eye, and the wallet. India, on the other hand, has been projecting its eastward tilt for some time now. In fact, it is 25 years since the late Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao announced a definite policy realignment. The realisation was late in coming and it was compelled in fact by circumstances largely economic and political. As India entered the globalisation era, wherein

political and economic policies intertwined, it dawned on New Delhi that growth can only be fostered if the country looked both ways, east and west. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on the other hand, has taken the Look East policy to another level of interaction and has also rechristened it as ‘Act East’. The impetus is patently clear. Which is really what the effort should be. As the countries of South East and Eastern Asia boomed economically, despite the most trying circumstances, it became obvious that for India to be a player amongst them, it would have to demonstrate results, rather than just looking in their direction. They wanted to see projects leave the presentation panels and appear as viable implemented efforts. So roads, ports, rail lines, river linking, etc. must be completed. The onus is now on India to fulfill its share of the responsibility, since it is the bigger player in this game, and the one who stands to benefit the most. Beneficiaries will in the long run be all the

June 2017

connected countries. But the Act East venture is an Indian initiative, so it is obvious that India has to be the lead player if it wants to be the principal beneficiary. Those benefits will fall its way should India jettison its reluctance and include security policies as part of its Act East initiative. After all, it is a growing sense of unease in South East and East Asia that opens the doors for India. In fact, they are beckoning India to enter the security fray since a large shadow of the dragon looms down from China. That shadow casts a doubt amongst all of the countries in this region. So, the onus is on India to erase the doubts to the extent that it can. Now that the United States has a pivot policy for Asia, the extent which is as yet unclear, the onus to clear the airs and sea lanes, lies squarely on India. It must act to be seen in the East.

Manvendra Singh

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Volume 8 | Issue 9 | June 2017 Chairman Shyam Sunder Publisher and ceo Pawan Agrawal President Urvashi J Agrawal Director Shishir Bhushan Editorial Editor-in-Chief Manvendra Singh Associate Editor Supriya Aggarwal Assistant Editor Diana Mehra

The World

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In Flux

ver the decades, regime change operations have happened in Afghanistan, Libya, Egypt, Algeria, Iraq and Syria. With the consequential flood of refugees from these countries into Europe and even Australia and America itself, the neo-colonialist nations have come to realise that the chickens will come home to roost. No lessons were learned from the bloodbath within Europe itself during the years after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the redrawing of the map in which nations like Yugoslavia disappeared. As a result, today the world is confronted by a Right Wing recrudescence that threatens to throw the world back to the days of the Nazi fascism. This was the sentiment felt acutely in France as reflected in the recent election campaign. The stage was taken by the moderate centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron and the virulent far-Right Marine Le Pen and the French people were confronted by a dreadful choice which, they knew could throw the world into a turmoil. The events of the past two years have forced peace-loving people, in France at least, to actively prevent a further deterioration of the political landscape. The historic victory of the 39-year-old President Emmanuel Macron in France proves it. These changes are significant in terms of the roadmap ahead for the people and by the people for their overall progress and peace in their respective societies. Peace is the ultimate desire of every common person as it is he or she who suffers in every manner when there is war for any reason. Attempts at regime change and wars by proxy leaders like we see in Syria and Jammu and Kashmir are destabilising factors. After the change of guard in India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has had extensive meetings with all the stakeholders in the region in a process of identifying common concerns and solutions. I am sure that these efforts will bring more confidence and stability in all Southeast Asia and India will lead them in the peaceful pursuit of economic growth and social progress. This edition of DSA is focussed on this very important topic and our eminent experts have analysed the situation in the region dwelling on the challenges and the solutions. Happy reading! Jai Hind!

Pawan Agrawal

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contents

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From Look East To Act East Policy Ambassador (Retd) Ashok Sajjanhar

Opportunities And Challenges Lt Gen SN Handa (Retd)

Pillar Of India’s Foreign, Economic and Security Posture Cmde (Retd) Ranjit B Rai

Fostering Maritime Domain Awareness Dr Vijay Sakhuja

Economic And Strategic Partnerships Prof Arun Mohanty

25 Years Of India’s Act East Policy Dr Rahul Mishra

ShinMaywa Amphibious Aircraft Paradigm Prof Vijay Khare & Dr Arun Vishwanathan

Need To Invigourate Neighbourhood Policy Sana Hashmi

WannaCry Decoded Rohan Nyayadhish

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From Look East To Act East Policy

China is preparing to deploy its maritime capability in the Indian Ocean. India’s ‘Act East’ policy must, therefore, incorporate countervailing measures which build military cooperation with the USA, Japan, Korea, Australia and some ASEAN countries. With China’s assertive behaviour, throwing up red flags for all countries, India can push ahead with its ‘Act East’ policy since the incentive to engage India in a countervailing strategy will be appealing to most countries in Asia. 4

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he ‘Look East Policy’ (LEP) was launchedin 1992 by the then Prime Minister Narasimha Rao to revitalise and rejuvenate relations between India and the ASEAN countries. Since the last several millennia, India has enjoyed close political, economic, cultural, linguistic and spiritual ties with the Southeast Asia. Trade between kingdoms on the East coast of India and Southeast Asia flourished for several centuries. However, for more than 40 years after India’s independence, relations between India and Southeast Asia were listless. On account of its colonial past, India looked to the West for trade, technology, investment, education and culture after its independence. Relations between India and Southeast Asia were hence never close during the Cold War years. For a host of reasons including political, strategic, diplomatic and economic, India reached out to this region in the early 1990s, immediately after the end of the Cold War. Prime Minister Narasimha Rao launched the ‘Look East Policy’ which was initially limited to Southeast Asia for economic partnership.

Evolving Ties Following the launch of ‘Look East Policy’, India became a Sectoral partner of the ASEAN in 1992. This was upgraded to the Full Dialogue Partnership and India became a Member of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in 1996. Relations developed rapidly. Some significant road blocks like the 1997 Asian economic crisis and India’s 1998

nuclear tests which were viewed adversely by several countries in the region, were experienced in initial years. Relations started improving with the decision to upgrade the India-ASEAN relationship to Summit Partnership in 2002. The then Prime Minister of Singapore, Goh Chok Thong equated China and India with two wings of an aircraft with the ASEAN being the body of the aircraft. He said that for the aircraft to cruise smoothly, to remain in a stable condition and to maintain a balanced equilibrium, it was necessary to provide the aircraft with two wings. China was one wing and it was essential to associate India as the other wing in an active manner. India’s interaction with ASEAN was elevated to the level of Strategic Partnership in 2012. Several institutions are now operational for holding regular dialogues. The annual summit is the highest body. As a strategic partner of the ASEAN, India is actively associated with various

Ambassador (Retd) Ashok Sajjanhar The writer, a postgraduate in Physics from Delhi University and a career diplomat, has served as the Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia. He has also held several significant positions in Indian Embassies in Moscow, Tehran, Geneva, Dhaka, Bangkok, Washington and Brussels. He negotiated for India in the Uruguay Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations. He has been an active participant in many of the international seminars organised by the UNCTAD and the WTO.

The future of India’s Act East Policy will be woven by the twin strands of economic engagement and strong security ties ASEAN-led fora dealing with defence and strategic issues. These include the East Asia Summit, the Asean Regional Forum, the ADMM+ (ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus) and the Expanded ASEAN Maritime Forum. India’s defence ties with the region have expanded significantly.

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‘Act East’ Corollary Prime Minister Modi launched the Act East Policy during his visit to Myanmar for the East Asia Summit and the ASEAN-India Summit in November 2014. He elaborated on this in his major policy address during his visit to Singapore in 2015 for the 50th anniversary of establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Prime Minister Modi expanded the coverage of Act East Policy to encompass northeast Asia including Japan, South Korea, Mongolia, Pacific Island nations, as well as Australia and New Zealand. Now, even Bangladesh is considered as a part of the Act East Initiative. Security and strategic aspects in addition to economic cooperation have also been included.

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The policy has brought security, safety, well-being, economic development, prosperity and connectivity of the North-Eastern States of India to centre-stage and as the most imperative and fundamental features of this initiative. Better understanding and cooperation with Myanmar and Bangladesh have ensured more peaceful and stable borders and conditions in Northeast India. Better people-to-people contacts and trade connectivity are sought to be provided through fast tracking projects like the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, the Kaladan Multi Modal Transport Corridor, etc.

Trade Fillip Trade and investment are important pillars of the Act East Policy. The

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His Excellency Suresh K Reddy, Ambassador of India to the ASEAN presenting his credentials to his counterpart Le Luong Minh, Secretary General of ASEAN, Jakarta, Indonesia

ASEAN is India’s 4th largest trading partner. Bilateral trade expanded to touch US$ 75 billion in 20132014 with both sides committing themselves to reach a trade turnover of US$ 100 billion by 2015 and US$ 200 billion by 2022. The target for 2015 has remained unfulfilled on account of the weak and fragile international economic situation especially with the decline in China’s economic performance. Bilateral trade increased from a level of US$ 2 billion in 1992 to US$ 12 billion in 2002. The Free Trade Agreement on Goods with the ASEAN was concluded in 2009. Bilateral trade in goods registered a significant jump to US$ 72 billion by 2012, the 20th year of partnership. The Regional Comprehensive

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Economic Partnership (RCEP) has emerged as a key instrument in realising the ASEAN Economic Community. The importance of the RCEP was emphasised at the recent ASEAN and East Asia Summits in Myanmar, Malaysia and Laos. Early finalisation of the RCEP will provide a significant boost to the cooperation between India and the other fifteen member economies.

Myanmar: Landbridge Strengthening of relations with Myanmar is a key feature to determine the success of India’s Act East Policy. Myanmar is India’s land-bridge to Southeast Asia. The investment climate in Myanmar has improved with greater openness in that country particularly with the

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advent of democracy and assumption of power by government led by Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD). Myanmar is already India’s chief source of imported pulses. India-Myanmar trade has more than doubled in the last seven years and crossed US$ 2 billion in 2013-14. But India remains Myanmar’s distant 11th trading partner, despite being a neighbour with 1,700km shared boundary. The India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway can prove to be a game-changer to connect India’s northeast with East Asia. India is a party to the ambitious TransAsian railway project. Myanmar is not yet linked by railway to India or Thailand. The difficult hilly terrain would require major investments. Without adequate cross border connectivity, it would be very difficult for India’s north-eastern states to reap the benefit of its Act East policy. Prime Minister Modi’s allocation of US$ 1 billion for promoting connectivity at the India-ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur in November 2015 brought the primacy of ‘connectivity, culture and commerce’ to the fore. India recognises that success of the AEP will be determined by its contribution to security and economic development of the Northeast India. The Act East policy must utilise the immense potential of border trade along the India-Myanmar land boundary. There is, however, only one operational border trading post at Moreh-Tamu in Manipur. Informal trade across the border is several times higher posing a major challenge to both governments. India’s engineering

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exports have a good potential in the Myanmar market. Oil and gas companies like Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Videsh (ONGC) and Gas Authority of India Limited (GAIL) are aggressively scouting for more viable blocks in Myanmar.

Several historic decisions have been taken, the most telling being the decision by Japan to sign a civilian nuclear deal with India The geo-strategic landscape of AsiaPacific or the Indo-Pacific region is changing rapidly. This region is today the most dynamic, with three of the world’s largest economies and several other vibrant economies being situated here. The power shift that is taking place from the trans-Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific is inducing disequilibrium in the international system. While the LEP began with a predominant economic objective, India’s strategic objective has become equally obvious in recent years. Accordingly, relations with the ASEAN have become multi-faceted to encompass security, strategic, political, counter-terrorism and defence collaboration in addition to economic ties. Cooperation to curb terrorism, especially in the face of rising influence of the Islamic State, has assumed priority. Defence partnerships with several ASEAN States have advanced.

Economic Or Strategic Matrix The future of India’s Act East Policy will be woven by the twin strands of economic engagement and strong

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The 2nd Expanded ASEAN Maritime Forum in October 2013

security ties. India must build a web of relationships with all countries, including China. India has moved into a faster lane with respect to Japan, the 4th largest economy in the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms and a technological power which is already playing a transformational role in building infrastructure in India (the Delhi Metro, smart cities, etc). Security relations are also growing.

suffered a nuclear attack, to sign a civilian nuclear deal with India. Japan’s commitment to invest US$ 35 billion in India, a joint deal on constructing a high-speed train and cooperation on the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor, as well as joint participation in Malabar naval exercises and defence cooperation, provide evidence of the flourishing bilateral strategic, economic and technological partnership.

Japan has a key role to play in India’s Act East policy as a partner in economic and security cooperation, including defence supplies. India’s partnership with Japan has witnessed the most dynamic growth. Several historic decisions have been taken, the most telling being the decision by Japan, the only country to have

Chinese Bellicosity

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China’s aggressive posture in the South China Sea, where it is embroiled in disputes with almost all littoral nations, peaked recently, with the stand-off between China, Philippines and Vietnam, over oil exploration attempts by China at a site, claimed by Vietnam, as falling within its Exclusive Economic Zone

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(EEZ). Chinese moves to construct artificial islands and deny rights to foreign ships to sail in the area around this man-made artificial structure have heightened tensions. Disputes and conflict brewing in the South and East China Seas are worrying for all countries in the region and beyond. China’s refusal to abide by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) ruling of last July is further exacerbating the situation. India is encouraging all claimants to the disputed islands to maintain peace and find a solution within the UN Convention on the Law of the Seas and the ASEAN’s Code of Conduct. China’s rise has led to a military build-up in Asia and arms transfers have gone up manifold, underlining the unstable security situation. China’s Maritime Silk Route proposal, part of the Belt Road Forum which took place in Beijing in mid-May 2017, involves building ports and other infrastructure assets in the sub-continent. China is preparing to deploy its maritime capability in the Indian Ocean. India’s Act East policy must, therefore, incorporate countervailing measures which build military cooperation with the USA, Japan, Korea, Australia and some ASEAN countries. With China’s assertive behaviour throwing up red flags for all countries, India can push ahead with its Act East policy since the incentive to engage India in a countervailing strategy will be appealing to most countries in Asia. The goal will be to inhibit China’s projection of power and at the same time build cooperation on common areas of interest like combating piracy, maritime disaster management and keeping the Sea

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Lanes and to leverage its considerable cultural influence to engage all Asian countries.

World leaders at the 16th Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) held in Indonesia

India’s Act East Policy has imparted more dynamism, vigour, energy and greater focus to relations with countries to its East. It has acquired greater relevance in the global geo-strategic space. India’s political, strategic, security, economic, commercial, cultural and people-topeople relations with countries of the ASEAN as well as Japan, the ROK, Australia, New Zealand, Bangladesh and China are expected to grow and expand further in the coming years to mutual benefit and advantage.

President Trump’s recent assumption of power has given rise to fresh uncertainties These are early days for the AEP. In the coming years, India must continue to focus on further strengthening the collaboration with ASEAN nations. In addition, Modi’s use of soft power with the region must continue to be harnessed.

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Opportunities And Challenges

Lt Gen SN Handa (Retd) PVSM, AVSM, VSM

The Look East and Act East is one of the important cornerstones of India’s foreign policy, which impacts its key national security interests. It is a region which will continue to witness India’s rivalry with its northern neighbour, strategically, economically and culturally. Some strategic thinkers have also referred to it as the ‘Great Game’ between India and China. Consequently, India must expect and be prepared for the strongest and most serious challenges to its policy emanating from China.

Map not to scale

The writer was commissioned into the 5th Battalion of the 3rd Gorkha Rifles on the eve of 1971 Indo Pak War and saw action in Kargil. In a career spanning 39 years, he has served in various terrain configurations along all borders of the country and in all operational environments. He has been Instructor at Military Intelligence Training School, Squadron Commander (Operations) in the NSG and Deputy Director General Perspective Planning (Plans). He commanded his battalion at Dera Baba Nanak through the final phase of Op Rakshak, which witnessed the breaking of the backbone of terrorism in Punjab. After commanding a division along the Rajasthan-Gujarat border, he was Chief of Staff of the Chinar Corps in the Kashmir valley. He retired as DG Infantry in April 2011 after commanding the Desert Corps and being Chief of Staff of the South Western Command.

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ince entering office six months ago, my government has moved with a great sense of priority and speed to turn our ‘Look East Policy’ into ‘Act East Policy’. The East Asia Summit is an important pillar of this policy. No other forum brings together such a large collective weight of global population, youth, economy and military strength. Nor is any other forum so critical for peace, stability and prosperity in AsiaPacific and the world,” said Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his address to the East Asia Summit attended by a galaxy of world leaders including the then US President Barack Obama, the Russian Premier Dmitry Medvedev and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in the Myanmarese capital Nay Pyi Taw.

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In Myanmar on 12-13 November 2014, for the India-ASEAN and the East Asia summits, PM Modi set the tone for his government’s Look East policy in his opening address at the ASEAN summit with leaders of the ASEAN comprising

Countries of the region had all along been waiting for India to assume such a role to balance Chinese influence ten countries: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, he said, “The ASEAN community is India’s neighbour. We have ancient relations of trade,

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India and the ASEAN can be great partners for each other. We are both keen to enhance our cooperation in advancing the balance, peace and stability in the region.” Signifying the shift in foreign policy focus and priorities of his government to ‘Neighbours First’ and from the ‘Look East’ to ‘Look East, Act East’, in the last three years the PM has visited nearly all the countries of the region, some of them twice, to include Bhutan, Nepal (twice), Japan (twice), Myanmar, Australia, Fiji, Sri Lanka (twice), Singapore (twice), China (twice), Mongolia, Seychelles, Mauritius, South Korea, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Vietnam, Laos, Thailand with visits to China and Philippines planned in the latter half of 2017.

Historical Perspective

The 49th AMM/PMCs meet at Vientlane, Laos in 2016

religion, culture, art and traditions. We have enriched each other through our interaction. This constitutes a strong foundation of a modern relationship. That is why our world view is similar in many respects; our mutual confidence and trust is strong. We have no irritants in our relationship. We see encouraging opportunities and challenges in the world in similar ways. My government has been in office for six months and the intensity and momentum with which we have enhanced our engagement in the East, is a reflection of the priority that we give to this region. A new era of economic development, industrialisation and trade has begun in India. Externally, India’s ‘Look East Policy’ has become ‘Act East Policy’. A rapidly developing

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Initiated in 1991 during the time of Prime Minister, Narsimha Rao, India’s Look East policy has enjoyed a continuation under all successive regimes of Atal Bihari Vajpayee (1998-2004), Dr Manmohan Singh (2004-14) and now under Narendra Modi since 2014. It once again was reflective of the lack of historical perspective and strategic vision of the Nehruvian era that India failed to assume its natural role in the Southeast Asia at independence despite strategic thinkers like KM Pannikar recommending the creation of a ‘steel ring’ of bases in the Indian Ocean to ensure in concert with Indonesia, security of Singapore, which was considered by the British to be the Eastern bulwark of the Indian security. Thus, it was only more than four decades after independence that India finds itself in a security vacuum with the collapse of its major security partner,

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the USSR, which brought the Cold War to its end that India felt the need to rediscover Southeast Asia. The need to ‘Look East’ was also impelled by India’s frustration with the SAARC in South Asia and a tottering economy sought to be restored through liberalisation of the Indian economy thus far sheathed in a largely socialist mould. Thus, India’s Look East policy signified a strategic shift in the country’s world view and was directed towards developing close economic and strategic ties with the Southeast Asian nations to draw upon the ‘tiger economies’ of the region for expansion of its own trade and investment as also to belatedly establish its case for a credible regional power by arresting the growing influence of China.

role to balance Chinese influence in the region. Given a Sectoral Dialogue partner status in 1992, India became a summit level partner on par with China, Japan and Korea in 2002. It became a member of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), the main forum for security cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region in which global and regional security issues, as well as disarmament and non-proliferation issues, are discussed in 1996 and was brought in to the ASEAN+6 by Japan to dilute the ASEAN+3 process where China was dominant. Singapore and Indonesia played a significant role in bringing India in to East Asia Summit. India has also received strong backing from the US and Japan for its membership of Asia Pacific Economic Forum (APEC).

It was fortunate in its endeavour to be welcomed by the countries of the region, which had all along been waiting for India to assume such a

Post-1991 Developments

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The economic liberalisation and reforms set in motion in India in 1991 bore fruit and saw the Indian

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The signing ceremony of the 3rd BIMSTEC Summit at Myanmar, in 2014

economy finally shedding the ‘Hindu’ rate of growth of 3 per cent and touching 8-10 per cent albeit within limitations of a democratic polity further handicapped by compulsions of coalition politics. Comparatively, the Chinese economy surged ahead at a much faster pace in a totalitarian environment drawing in the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) almost 15-20 times more than that of India. While this has changed dramatically with India drawing in more FDI than China in 2015, the Chinese economy decidedly remains on a stronger footing with adequate financial flexibility and muscle for China to undertake infrastructure projects as also give grants or doles to gain strategic leverage. Geo-politically, China continued to pursue its policies aggressively in pursuance of its national interests, whether it was strategically significant infrastructure projects like establishing its presence in Cocoa Islands, development of Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka or construction of road and gas pipelines

India needs to fully exploit the potential of military diplomacy, which has hitherto been a neglected area in Myanmar. Indian response on the contrary was shaped by lack of strategic vision, absence of strategic culture and an understanding of military power in its political leadership, weak political will, continued suspicion of the military and an inept bureaucracy steeped in red tape and old mindsets. While India focused on subregional economic cooperation such as the Bay of Bengal Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation

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(BIMSTEC), Mekong-Ganga Cooperation (MGC) and Bangladesh– China–India–Myanmar Regional Economic Forum (BCIM Forum), the main aim of these groupings being to create an enabling environment for rapid economic development through identification and implementation of specific cooperation projects in trade and investment, industry, technology, human resource development, tourism, agriculture, energy, infrastructure, technology, transport and communications, energy and fisheries, there was insufficient substantive progress on ground. A lot of noise was made about China pursuing a ‘string of pearls’ strategy against India without any action to counter the same. Inept bureaucracy and red-tape ensured that, leave aside any modernisation of the defence services in consonance with the Long Term Perspective Plans to meet the two-front threat, even their prevailing levels of operational preparedness continued to degrade progressively. In sum, it may not be unfair to suggest that handling of India’s Look East Policy up to 2014 was routine and pedestrian with all those charged with the responsibility of pursuing it taking the most favoured bureaucratic approach of ‘not rocking the boat’ resulting in the Indian responses being at best soft and weak-kneed earning it the tag of a ‘soft State’. India could not adequately match up to the expectations of the Southeast Asian nations from it either on the economic front or on the security front when it came to counter-balancing Chinese influence. The policy definitely lacked innovation and dynamism.

June 2014 Landmark With the coming to power of the NDA government in May 2014, the

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Look East policy has witnessed a long overdue policy shift with active involvement of the Foreign Minister and the Prime Minister themselves. The shift witnessed is not merely in the policy and approach but also in the style and methodology of conducting foreign policy. Reflecting the new style of ‘Minister’ rather than ‘Ministry’ led foreign policy, Sushma Swaraj summoned all envoys to the region in September 2014 and announced the new ‘Look East, Act East’ policy signifying the need for envoys to infuse greater commitment, innovation and dynamism into the policy. A personalised style of conducting diplomacy has seen the Prime Minister visiting most of the countries of the region and establishing personal rapport with the leaders of the ASEAN and East Asian countries. This has also greatly contributed towards making the policies innovative and infusing dynamism by overcoming past bureaucratic mindsets. There is today an unambiguous iteration of our country’s policy and stand. One can perceive far greater coherence, rationalism and boldness where needed, in pursuance of our policy as evident from India’s stand on Spratly Islands and thrust given to the development of relations with Vietnam including military assistance to bolster its defence capabilities, as also with Japan, South Korea and Australia. The latest example of a bold shift in India’s policy is its decision to go unrepresented at the One Belt One Road Forum summit meeting held in Beijing on 14-15 May 2017. This is a befitting response to China’s blocking whatever India has been lobbying for in the international forums – entry in to the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group,

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permanent membership of the UN and the UN sanctions against Masood Azhar as also its unstinted support to Pakistan over the years. On the economic front, a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) has been established for project financing, establishing information highways, and inviting the ASEAN countries to participate in India’s ongoing economic transformation.

Opportunities The NDA government has realigned the foreign policy focus by making ‘Neighbours First’ and ‘Look and Act East’ as the cornerstones of India’s foreign policy. Prime Minister Vajpayee had asserted, “the strategic frontiers of today’s India, grown in international stature, have expanded well beyond the confines of South Asia…our security environment ranges from the Persian Gulf to the Straits of Malacca across the Indian Ocean…our strategic thinking also has to extend to those horizons”. His successor, Manmohan Singh corroborated the thinking of his predecessor by articulating that “our strategic footprint covers the region bounded by the Horn of Africa, West

Chinese financing programmes, which appear attractive initially, sour quickly Asia…..South East Asia and beyond to the far reaches of the Indian Ocean. Awareness of this reality must inform and animate our strategic thinking and defence planning”. This strategic view and the world-wide acceptance of the view that the 21st century will be an Asian Century with China and India emerging as the two economic power horses, suggest

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State Counsellor of Myanmar (second from right) Daw Aung San Suu Kyi poses for photo together with other leaders of BIMSTEC countries in Goa, India

the importance of India’s Look East policy. India needs to optimise its socio-cultural and religious linkages with the countries of the region, and their apprehensions of China, in pursuit of its geo-strategic and economic interests. The congruence of strategic interests among the US, Japan, Australia and Vietnam offers great opportunities to pursue its strategic objectives of containing Chinese influence in the region and the Indian Ocean through the ASEAN Regional Forum and nurturing bilateral relationships. Japan and Australia also hold the potential to aid India’s peaceful nuclear programme. Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Vietnam offer rich opportunities for defence cooperation. The ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) is also a useful forum for India to carry on its fight against global terrorism and piracy, and to carry out maritime patrolling for domination of sea lanes. Close relationship

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with Burma and Bangladesh will greatly contribute towards not only the security of our Northeastern borders besides checking the drug menace and illicit trade but also in restricting Chinese presence and influence in ports considered sensitive for India’s security. Fast tracking work on infrastructure projects like Kaladan Multi-Modal transport and transit facility for connectivity between the Indian ports and Sittwe Port in Myanmar; the India Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway and its extension to Laos and Cambodia; MekongGanga Cooperation and Kunming Initiative to boost cooperation in tourism, culture, education and transportation portends obvious benefits. Economically, while India leverages its strengths in Information Technology, Pharmaceuticals as a huge market, it needs to exploit the strength of regional economies in electronics, heavy engineering and

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product development. The policy holds tremendous promise for development of our own Northeastern region. Close linkages with countries in the region will prove highly beneficial for shaping the global environment and in India’s pursuit of getting permanent membership of the UN.

Challenges And Way Forward Realpolitik in today’s environment calls for an objective appreciation and clear understanding of challenges so as to be well prepared with contingencies for timely, well thought-out and measured responses in pursuit of policies by other nations in furtherance of their own national interests. The biggest challenges to India’s Look and Act East policy have to be expected from China, which is unlikely to reconcile to India’s efforts to enhance its influence economically, strategically or culturally. Moreover, China considers Southeast Asia and Western Pacific littoral as its own strategic backyard. It needs to be recognised and accepted that China has an advantage over India globally and more so in this region because of its size, economy, military capability, ethnicity, firstmover advantage and being the only country in the region which is a permanent member of the UN. The Southeast Asian countries have a strong and prosperous Chinese diaspora as compared to India. But it also needs to be recognised that in all the aforesaid dimensions, India today is not a push-over and it has acquired an international stature, which makes its views count in the comity of nations. The measures taken by the present government to curb corruption and black money,

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changing work culture among the youth with much improved skilling and higher professionalism, and domestic policies directed towards greater transparency, empowerment of the poor and cleanliness have gone a long way towards refurbishing a negative perception of India in the region. India also needs to play on the apprehensions of the Chinese hegemony, poor one-sided business ethics which seek to advantage the Chinese, and its own advantage in use of English. India needs to focus on the structural misalignments of China’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) like in the case of Sri Lanka where an unviable Hambantota port project has left Colombo reeling under a US$ 8 million debt. Laos and Myanmar are also seeking renegotiation of projects. Chinese financing programmes, which appear attractive initially, sour quickly. India will need to take a bold stand not only in its dispute with China but also on issues impacting on security of the South Asian nations. India has done well to enter into special strategic partnership with Japan, a strategic partnership with South Korea and already has strong and traditional military ties with Vietnam. India needs to fully exploit the potential of military diplomacy, which has hitherto been a neglected area. ‘Quiet action oriented diplomacy’ will be far more effective than pursuing ‘media-centric’ diplomacy. It is very heartening to see such an approach being pursued on the ‘energy front’ where India is working on a web of energy relationships from Indonesia to Mauritius that seek to leverage India’s position

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Kazakh President Nursultan Nazar Bayeu shaking hands with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping,attending the One Belt, One Road forum and meets with leaders in China

as a big source of petroleum products, sharing technology, and building interdependencies. Domestically, India needs to address the issues related to insurgencies in its northeast to create the right environment for the region’s development. Needless to mention that the two are inter-related and need to worked upon simultaneously.

Security Bulwark The Look and Act East is one of the important cornerstones of India’s foreign policy, which impacts its key

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national security interests. Some strategic thinkers have also referred to it as the ‘Great Game’ between India and China. Consequently, India must expect and be prepared for the strongest and most serious challenges to its policy emanating from China. It is indeed heartening to note that the policy has gathered the right momentum under the present government and India seems wellprepared to meet the bumps along the way if its uncharacteristically bold decision to refuse participation in the OBOR summit at Beijing is any indication.

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REVIEW OF ‘ACT EAST’ POLICY

Pillar Of India’s

Foreign, Economic and Security Posture India’s ‘Look and Act East’ policies have shaped the way India deals with its neighbours in the Asia-Pacific region, leading to substantially deeper economic, institutional and robust security relations and understanding, driven in part by India’s strategy of counter-balancing China’s influence, a policy which was initially aimed at diplomatic and economic engagement with Southeast Asia that began in 1992.

ndia’s relationship with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) which recorded a GDP of more than US$ 2.8 trillion in 2015, began as an element of foreign policy with a single desk in the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), but it got

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greatly energised after India’s ‘Look East’ Policy and India’s economic interests in the East increased in 1991. India became a Sectoral Partner of the ASEAN in 1992, a Dialogue Partner in 1996 and a Summit Level Partner in 2002. Security relations got traction and

the relationship was upgraded into a Strategic Partnership in 2012. Much ground has been covered since, with the ASEAN nations, Japan and Australia in the East. There are 30 dialogue mechanisms between India and the ASEAN, and six strategic partnerships cutting across various interests in the East including Japan and Australia. The Eastern navies regularly exercise with the Indian Navy and the Coast Guard. Japan has become a permanent partner in the Exercise Malabar with India and the US Navy, while Australia and Singapore took part in the Exercise Malabar in the Bay of Bengal in 2007 termed as the QUAD, and objected by China. Three Malabars were conducted before 1998 but the USA suspended exercises after India tested nuclear weapons in 1998 but renewed military contacts post 26/11 and India joined President George W Bush’s campaign against international terrorism. All Eastern navies are invited to Port Blair in the Andaman Sea for the Navy’s bi-annual Exercise MILAN, which contributes to the Look East understanding. India’s eastern land and maritime connectivity to nations is a matter of strategic priority for India, as also the ASEAN countries. In 2013, India became the third dialogue partner of the ASEAN to initiate an ASEAN Connectivity Coordinating Committee. However, progress on implementation of the IndiaMyanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway and the Kaladan Multimodal Project, for increasing the maritime and air connectivity between the East and India; and transforming the corridors of connectivity into

economic corridors has been slow. An extension to India-MyanmarThailand Trilateral Highway to Cambodia, Laos PDR and Vietnam is also under consideration. On 7 May 2015, Prime Minsiter Narendra Modi addressed the Bharat Sevashram Sangha on the importance of India’s connectivity to South East Asia.

Historical Backdrop of Look East Policy No long term foreign policy can be exploited or explained to the full unless the historical backdrop of its germination is understood. In 1990s, India’s foreign exchange reserves had dwindled. The then Finance Minister Dr Manmohan Singh and Finance Secretary Dr Montek Singh Ahluwalia proceeded to Bangkok in October 1991, to attend the Meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Board of Governors. Dr Singh tabled the critical need for international finance to tide over the crisis of impending FFE defaults by India and assured the Governors that India would implement the IMF economic

Cmde (Retd) Ranjit B Rai The writer was Liaison Officer to the then Finance Minister Dr Manmohan Singh in 1991 as Defence Attache in the High Commission in Singapore.

India’s eastern land and maritime connectivity to nations is a matter of strategic priority reforms and open its economy. Japan supported India with offer of advances and larger low interest rate Overseas Development Assistance (ODA), pending an IMF decision. From Bangkok, Dr Manmohan Singh flew in to Singapore where he was joined by the then commerce minister P Chidambaram and a large

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REVIEW OF ‘ACT EAST’ POLICY

team from India, to attract badly needed foreign investments from the ‘ASEAN Tigers’ as they were known, for exports, power and other projects like the ENRON. At the meeting, Dr Ahluwalia broke news that the IMF was willing to fill the gap of around US$ 3.8 billion in 199192 and US$ 2.8 billion in 1992–93 as standby credit with special fast disbursing loans from the World Bank as the team returned to report to Prime Minister Narasimha Rao.

Opening Up The Economy The undertaking given to the IMF enabled India to set in motion the 1991-93 reforms. The Singapore and Malaysian companies invested in projects in India and this encouraged business houses in the ASEAN to plan investments in India. What began as an economic shift Eastwards, with attendant economic and domestic considerations led India’s External Affairs and Defence Ministry to pay greater attention to the growing ties with the Eastern and Southeast Asian countries. PM Narasimha Rao coined the ‘Look East’ policy in 1992 as an increasingly important element of India’s foreign and strategic policy. ‘Look East’ was seriously implemented by the concerned ministries during the administrations of Prime Ministers Atal Bihari Vajpayee (1999-2004) and Dr Manmohan Singh (2004-14) giving it a security and strategic flavour with visits and return visits by the PMs, Defence Ministers, Service Chiefs and Defence Secretaries to the ASEAN countries Japan and Australia. India’s ‘Look East’ policy got the most support from Singapore at the ASEAN meetings and officially it

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became a Flagship policy for India’s relations with the Eastern nations. Non-alignment gave way to security co-operation. In the last two and half decades, India’s security issues have influenced and shaped closer ties with most of the Asia-Pacific nations and External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and Prime Minister Narendra Modi proposed a new rejuvenated outlook calling it the ‘Act East’ policy in 2014, at a time in history when the world’s centre of gravity had markedly shifted the East and China had grown economically

The most visible aspect of security cooperation in Look East policy is in the maritime field and militarily in stature, to challenge the USA’s supremacy in the East and take on its pivot. China has also refused to pay heed to the rulings of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) – International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) which rejected China’s claims to the South China Sea (SCS) which threatens freedom of navigation. It affects India too. The ASEAN signed a ‘Code of Conduct’ on the SCS with China but it is not working and China wishes to deal with each nation bilaterally. China has also made thrusts into the Indian Ocean Region with acquisition of atolls in the Maldives and interests in Gwadar port, and a base in Djoubiti to stall India’s Net Security Provider status in the IOR. The Indian two way trade with the ASEAN is currently around US$ 80 billion a year and is set to rise up from US$ 33.13 billion

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Map not to scale

A diagrammatic representation of the 3,200 km long IndiaMyanmar-Thailand trilateral highway

in the 2013-14 financial year, thanks to the Act East policy, diplomatic relations and co-operation on strategic issues has become dynamic.

The Military And Security Aspects In 1992, cash rich Singapore’s ‘Total Defence’ team approached the Indian High Commission for C-130 Navigation training with the Indian Air Force as Singapore is short of airspace and requested for naval officers as instructors at their Singapore Armed Forces Training

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Institute (SAFTI) and expressed willingness to join India’s Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) programme if 25 per cent work load was given to Singapore. A team led by Brigadier De’Ranjo visited India for discussions and the (Defence Research and Development Organisation) DRDO facilities at Hyderabad and met Dr APJ Kalam then heading the DRDO’s Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme (IGMDP) programme, and visited Bharat Dynamics Ltd (BDL), and offered to take a stake.

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India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) cleared the Indian Naval ships to undertake the Flag Showing visits to Singapore and Malaysia with instructions to missions abroad to support India’s Look East. In Singapore, Navy Chief Admiral Teo Chee Hean, who later became the Defence Minister of Singapore and currently is the Deputy Prime Minister, told the visiting Indian dignitaries that any large economic relationship must have a benign strategic understanding. Both nations began working on this and today, it is the strongest with 23 uninterrupted Simbex naval exercises, Armoured corps training with India’s Army and in April 2017, the bilateral agreement for Singapore’s Air Force to continue its joint military training with the Indian Air Force for another five years. India has a naval officer at the SAFTI and another in the Maritime Fusion

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Centre and a Coast Guard officer at RECAAP, the regional antipiracy centre and the Indian Navy supports the bi-annual IMDEX in Singapore. In 1992, Singapore Technologies sent its 155 mm Howitzer to the DRDO’s Balasore test range for trials and the Singapore military officers came to India for ‘A La Carte courses’ in the DRDO establishments. The agreements were negotiated by the DRDO (Defence Research and Development Organisation) head Dr VS Arunachalam to earn foreign exchange. The Singapore NCC cadets in numbers came to India for mountain adventure and the Republic Day camps. Malaysia sent its Air Force crew to train on MIG-29s while Tata Motors exported Military trucks to Philippines in the CKD condition. India’s foreign exchange crisis abated.

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In a demonstration, naval forces storm the “hijacked” MT Promise off Batam island in the southern end of the Malacca Strait on 11 May 2012

The most visible aspect of security co-operation in the Look East policy is in the maritime field and Singapore-India maritime cooperation is defined with exchange of advanced staff talks and the bilateral exercises that Singapore’s Republic of Singapore Navy (RSN) and the Indian Navy first formalised in 1994. The SIMBEX-2016 was held in the Bay of Bengal region and it was the 23rd in the series with an increased interoperability amongst the RSN and the IN with understanding and procedures for maritime security operations. In 2004, the Indian Navy executed Op Sagittarius to escort ships in the Malacca Straits after 26/11 attacks in the USA. Japan and Australia have stepped up maritime co-operation, naval exercises, ship visits, staff naval talks, training of naval personnel in India and Defence India became a member of the ASEAN Defence Minister (ADMMPlus) which is an effort of the ASEAN at constructing a sustainable regional security architecture amidst the growing military tensions, between China with its claims in the South China Sea and its East Asian neighbours and between Beijing and Washington. The ADDM includes Defence heads from the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and eight other countries: Japan, China, South Korea, the United States, Russia, India, Australia and New Zealand.

Asia-Pacific Contour The relations of former Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh and PM Modi ‘ in Summit’ meets with Japan’s Shinzo Abe in Tokyo has seen co-operation on global issues and the leaders have expressed their

resolve to further consolidate and strengthen the India-Japan ‘Strategic and Global Partnership’, taking into account changes in the strategic environment; China in view. The two leaders review the Foreign Secretary, the India-Japan and the United States ‘Trilateral Defence Policy Dialogue’, and confirm joint actions on cyber security and for counterterrorism. Japan has promised an economic partnership to assist India and tabled investment initiatives in trade corridors and ShinMaywa US-2 amphibian aircraft and flagged steps for the ‘Bilateral Maritime Affairs Dialogue’. PM Abe, has stressed ‘seamless maritime cooperation with India’ in a ‘Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation’, and established a Joint Working Group (JWG).

India’s Look East agenda was ambitiously based on stronger economic, military and strategic ties with the ten ASEAN nations

India has strong links in the Eastern nations that involve members of the ASEAN like the BIMSTEC and is an active participant in several regional forums like the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM), East Asia Summit (EAS), the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting plus and the Expanded ASEAN Maritime Forum (EAMF), the Indian Ocean Regional Association (IORA) and the Indian Ocean Symposium. India’s ‘Look and Act East’ policy has shaped the way India deals with its neighbours in the Asia-Pacific region, leading to substantially deeper economic, institutional and robust security relations and understanding, driven in part by India’s strategy of counter-balancing China’s influence, a policy which was initially aimed at the diplomatic and economic engagement with Southeast Asia, that began in 1992.

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MARITIME COOPERATION

Fostering Maritime

Domain Awareness At the heart of the MDA are reconnaissance, surveillance, monitoring, information sharing and tracking, thus providing a full picture of the movements at sea and the identification of anomalies and threats. In essence, it is the key enabler for addressing maritime security. Given the above, there is an opportunity for India and Bangladesh to develop a Bay of Bengal MDA which can also include Myanmar.

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he Indian government has placed the ‘neighbourhood first’ as one of its primary foreign policy objectives and this was exhibited by the invitation extended by Prime Minister Modi to the Heads of States of the neighbouring countries to participate in his swearing-in ceremony in 2014. Since then, Prime Minister Modi has had a number of meetings with several South Asian leaders at the SAARC Summits as also during State visits. These engagements have been significant and facilitated a strong bonhomie and a political ‘chemistry’ between him and the South Asian leaders. However, there is an exception with respect to

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan. Islamabad remains a challenge for New Delhi for a number of political, diplomatic and strategic reasons. Like all the South Asian countries, Bangladesh is an important neighbour but it enjoys a special relationship because India was at the forefront to support the Bengali nationalism in East Pakistan which led to the emergence of Bangladesh as an independent nation under the leadership of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the ‘Father of the Nation’ of Bangladesh. Over the last four decades, IndiaBangladesh bilateral relations have been a mixed bag of successes and failures primarily due to political dispensations in Dhaka which has had a checkered history of civil and military leadership including periods of dictatorship and military rule.

Dr Vijay Sakhuja The writer is the director of the National Maritime Foundation, New Delhi.

Bilateral Upswing In current times, the bilateral relations have witnessed an upswing and during his visit to Dhaka in 2015, Prime Minister Modi and Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina formalised the Mujib-Indira Land Boundary Agreement signed in 1974, putting to rest one of the major issues of contention in the bilateral relationship. Likewise, the verdict of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) on delimitation of maritime boundary between India and Bangladesh is a significant development thus settling the long-standing maritime dispute between the two countries. It will now be possible for both the countries to demarcate territorial waters, exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and the continental shelf.

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MARITIME COOPERATION

The above developments offer India and Bangladesh a number of opportunities to expand maritime cooperation in various sectors as also harness the economic potential of the Bay of Bengal. This can be achieved by jointly developing a robust Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) architecture that services both the security and economic requirements.

Naval Cooperation Post-independence in 1971, Bangladesh Navy was a motley collection of ships of the erstwhile Pakistan Navy and most of these had either been destroyed or rendered non-operational by the Bangladesh liberation force Mukti Bahini or due to relentless attacks by the Indian Navy. It acquired three frigates from Britain and these were the backbone of the Bangladesh Navy thus providing it the capability to carry out patrolling of its waters in the Bay of Bengal. It also acquired two Castle-class offshore patrol vessels and a survey ship from the United Kingdom and two 053H2 frigates from China and in 2013, two large patrol craft were built by China. Thereafter, two US Coast Guard High Endurance Cutters joined the fleet. In 2010, Bangladesh announced plans to develop a three dimensional navy and it was announced that “We have made a decision to add submarines with base facilities to Bangladesh’s navy very soon to make it a deterrent force…We will build a modern three-dimensional navy for future generations which will be capable of facing any challenge during a war on our maritime boundary”. In March 2017, the two Chinese Type 035G-class submarines were

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commissioned in the Bangladesh Navy. It is evident that the Bangladesh Navy has acquired a number of platforms from China but has not explored the Indian warship building shipyards largely due to apprehensions of its larger neighbour as also avoid being highly dependent on India. Instead, it has chosen to court China which is the largest supplier of military hardware not only for the navy but also met the bulk needs of the Bangladesh army and the air force. The 2014 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) report notes that China has supplied to Bangladesh nearly seven per cent of military equipment and a 80 per cent of the military inventory. However, Bangladesh has chosen to engage India for some of its naval training needs. It also sought additional vacancies for naval officers in the Staff College and Defence College. During the recent State visit to India by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in 7-10 April 2017, three defence MoUs were signed: (a) Defence Cooperation Framework; (b) Defence Services Staff College, Wellington, Tamil Nadu, India and Defence Services Command and Staff College, Mirpur, Dhaka, Bangladesh for Enhancing Cooperation in the Field of Strategic and Operational Studies; (c) National Defence College, Dhaka, Bangladesh and National Defence College, New Delhi, India for enhancing cooperation in the field of national security, development and strategic studies. At the operational level, the Bangladesh Navy ships have participated in joint naval exercises and participated in the MILAN, a

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multinational congregation of navies at Port Blair in Andaman and Nicobar Islands in Bay of Bengal.

Blue Economy

A press conference briefing of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

Bangladesh has been leading the regional discourse on ‘Blue Economy’, and is committed to ensure sustainable development of sea-based living and nonliving resources. It is pertinent to mention that nearly 30 million people in Bangladesh are dependent on the sea for their livelihood, and are engaged in fishing and commercial transportation. Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh

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Hasina has observed that these activities demand ‘management of the sea’, and Blue Economy is a ‘new horizon’ for the development of the coastal countries and the small island developing states. The country is in early stages of embracing the Blue Economy concept and has taken a number of initiatives such as setting up a National Oceanographic Research Institute for marine scientific community, teaching oceanography at the Dhaka and the Chittagong Universities and training human resource to develop skills for the sustainable development of resources, and working towards

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MARITIME COOPERATION

protecting the marine environment and preserving the bio-diversity of the seas. Bangladesh has proposed the ‘Bay of Bengal Partnership for Blue Economy’ for the sustainable development of sea based resources. It has urged the littoral States to place Blue Economy high on respective national economic agenda, ‘move together and ahead’, harness the seas in a sustainable manner and ensure ‘an inclusive and people-centric Blue Economy’. There is an opportunity for Bangladesh and India to develop partnership to advance Blue Economy in the Bay of Bengal. This would require a robust MDA for the integration of each other’s’ coastal development frameworks into respective national sustainable development initiatives. Further, they would need to share with each other the scientific knowledge accumulated over the years and help develop scientific institutions and human resource to study the seas.

Bay of Bengal Maritime Domain Awareness The Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) helps to understand what happens at sea and a useful tool for better ocean governance and improved law enforcement at sea. At the heart of the MDA are reconnaissance, surveillance, monitoring, information sharing and tracking thus providing a full picture of movements at sea and the identification of anomalies and threats. In essence, it is the key enabler for addressing maritime security. Given the above, there

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is an opportunity for India and Bangladesh to develop a Bay of Bengal MDA which can also include Myanmar. According to Vice Admiral Zahir Uddin Ahmed, Bangladesh Navy chief, “Since 1972, our role has expanded over time due to the rapidly changing global security environment, emerging asymmetric threats, paradigm shift in the globalisation of trade and commerce, increasing dependency on the sea, and rising vulnerability to natural calamities…maritime security has to be augmented proportionately to ensure naval vigilance both within inland waters and at sea. The great challenge for us lies in keeping a gapless presence in our entire maritime domain.”

Bangladesh has proposed ‘Bay of Bengal Partnership for Blue Economy’ for the sustainable development of sea based resources India has established the Information Management and Analysis Centre (IMAC) which obtains information from over 50 coastal radar stations including those located on island territories. The IMAC collates, fuses and disseminates intelligence and information about ‘unusual or suspicious movements and activities at sea’. The IMAC also receives vital operational data about ‘white shipping’ (merchant shipping including fishing vessels over 300 tons) from a number of sources such as the Automatic Identification System (AIS) and the long-range identification and tracking (LRIT), a

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satellite-based, real-time reporting mechanism for position of ships. This information is further supplemented by shore based electro-optical systems and high definition radars. India actively promotes the MDA and has mechanisms with the US, France, the UK and Indian Ocean Island States for intelligence exchange.

Stage Set Since India and Bangladesh have signed three MoUs during Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s visit in March this year, the stage is now set to expand on the understanding reached between the two countries and the leaders. The maritime cooperation has enormous potential and the new line of credit, which allows Bangladesh to buy around

US$ 500 million worth of Indian defence equipment, is best suited for developing the Bay of Bengal MDA.

The Nauticast Inland AIS Transponder made the ACR type R-4-203

It is useful to recall the Bangladesh Navy’s perspective wherein it has been observed that the “emergence of transnational threats also demands greater maritime cooperation as these threats persist across boundaries. Potential for mineral resources and increasing sea dependency have also created multiple challenges in the Bay of Bengal…the Bangladesh Navy continuously engages in trust and confidence building initiatives and intends to develop interoperability as a cornerstone for combined effort against regional maritime security challenges where required and maintain excellent relations with the neighbouring navies”.

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REFLECTIONS ON ‘LOOK EAST’ POLICY

Economic And Strategic Partnerships

It is during the government led by PV Narasimha Rao that Southeast Asia region first came into India’s foreign policy radar. In 1992, Prime Minister Rao initiated the Look East policy to foster stronger ties with the nations of Southeast Asia. However, it has been relentlessly followed by all successive governments led by IK Gujral, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Manmohan Singh, etc. The current Prime Minister Narendra Modi, realising the strategic and economic importance of the region, has elevated the ‘Look East’ policy to ‘Act East’ policy.

he vast region to the east of India did not receive the required priority in the country’s foreign policy for nearly four decades following India’s independence for different reasons. First, because of India’s colonial links as independent India’s ruling elite had an essentially western orientation. Second, this region was less developed than India until 1970s which is why the region was not attractive for trade and investment. India’s protectionist and insular economic policies did not help to make the region a priority. Our overland linkages to Southeast Asia were blocked. The fact that India and Southeast Asia were on opposite sides in the Cold-War divide was not conducive for stronger engagements of India with the region. This is how India missed the opportunity to foster strong relations with the Southeast Asian countries. India failed to leverage her shared colonial

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experience and cultural affinities to build mutually beneficial relations with the nations in Southeast Asia. A combination of economic, strategic and domestic considerations led India to pay greater attention to its eastern neighbours since early 1990s. India has been steadily building relations with the Southaast Asian countries and this has become an increasingly important element of India’s foreign

India enjoys geographical proximity and strong historical links with the region policy. India is working with these countries bilaterally as well as through regional bodies like the East Asia Summit, ASEM and ASEAN and sub-regional organisations like the BIMSTEC and Mekong–Ganga Cooperation project.

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Professor Arun Mohanty The writer is a professor at the School of International Studies, JNU.

The Narasimha Rao Initiative It is during the government led by PV Narasimha Rao that the Southeast Asia region first came into India’s foreign policy radar. In 1992, Prime Minister Rao initiated the Look East policy to foster stronger ties with the nations of Southeast Asia. However, it has been relentlessly followed by all the successive governments led by IK Gujral, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Manmohan Singh, etc. The current Prime Minister Narendra Modi, realising the strategic and economic importance of the region, has elevated the ‘Look East’ policy to ‘Act East’

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policy. It can be safely concluded that there exists a consensus in India across party lines regarding the ‘Look East’ policy. No political party has ever questioned the wisdom of our ‘Look East’ policy. The Southeast Asia region enjoys priority in the foreign policy of all Indian governments, formed by different political parties at different periods. India’s ‘Look East’ policy is designed to promote extensive economic and strategic ties with countries of Southeast Asia. In order to strengthen its role as a regional player and a counter-weight to the

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growing strategic influence of China in the region. Initiated in 1992, the ‘Look East’ policy heralded a strategic shift in India’s perspective of the world. Along with economic liberalisation and the end of Cold-War policies, India’s strategy started focusing on forging closer economic and commercial ties, augmenting strategic and security cooperation, emphasising on historic cultural, civilisational links with the region. India sought to create and expand regional markets for trade, investments began along with strategic and security cooperation with the countries concerned by the expansion of the Chinese economic and strategic influence.

The Objectives The objective of the ‘Look East’ policy is to promote political, economic, strategic and cultural relations with the countries of Southeast Asia. More specifically, the ‘Look East’ policy envisages three long term approaches towards the countries of Southeast Asia. First, to improve political contacts and understanding with the ASEAN member-countries. Second, to achieve enhanced economic cooperation including trade and investment, science and technology, and tourism with the Southeast Asian countries. Third, to augment defence and strategic cooperation with these countries in order to achieve a better understanding. Technically, the ‘Look East’ policy covers all countries of Asia-Pacific region but in practical terms, it has been confined to only the Southeast Asia – the member-states of ASEAN, consisting of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Philippines, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar.

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The ASEAN is central to India’s ‘Look East’ policy. Our engagement is driven by common priorities for bringing peace and prosperity to all partners. India’s ‘Look East’ policy was designed to achieve the following goals: • To contribute significantly to India’s efforts at globalisation and integration with the global economy. • To fill up the void created by the collapse of the USSR, India’s major economic partner. • To help the country in overcoming its isolation from a world-wide phenomena of joining regionalism.

India may offer opportunities for relocation of some of the labor– intensive activities from the ASEAN States to India The rationale behind the ‘Look East’ policy lay in the fact that India has made serious efforts for getting entry into the trading blocks of the region, notably the ASEAN and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum. Stronger economic ties with the ASEAN would help India’s cause in the APEC as all ASEAN member-countries are members of the APEC.

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A congregation at the 3rd ASEAN – Russia Summit at Sochi

The economic dynamism that the Southeast Asia and East Asia economies have displayed since 1970s, partly through externally oriented development strategies. Their growth rate has been far higher than that the inmost developed countries – the USA, the European nations and Japan.

Geographical Proximity India enjoys geographical proximity and strong historical links with the region though it does not belong to it. India’s bilateral relationship with the countries of the region would benefit from low transport costs and shorter delivery schedules. This is very important for the Indian exporters since longer delivery schedules of the Indian exports in view of severe and wide-ranging domestic supply constraints, have been considered as one of the major hindrances by the European importers.

origin, which plays an important role in the industrialisation and trade promotion of these countries, and can act as a vital link in developing mutually beneficial commercial ties between India and Southeast Asia. The new generation of the Indian migrants include software engineers, financial analysts, management professionals, which can play a still stronger role in promoting India. The centuries old cultural ties between India and these countries are thus viewed as a favourable factor in strengthening the bilateral economic relations. India may also reap benefits from the growing economic cooperation, more specifically from the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA). Given the considerable external orientation of these economies, the AFTA is expected to have substantially an external orientation.

ASEAN Interest A sizeable population of the countries of the region is of Indian

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This may offer opportunities for relocation of some of the labour–

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intensive activities from the ASEAN States to India on abling them to maintain their competitive edge, which otherwise is getting phased out in several lines of production owing to rising labour costs. The decision to go for an India-ASEAN AFTA is based on an economic logic but political factors too were important considerations. As a result of various developments, in the late 1990s and early 2000 such as India becoming nuclear weapon power, its economic success, the ASEAN became

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interested in engaging with India for more security. At the end of the year 2000, India got the indication that the ASEAN wanted to invite India for a summit. Notwithstanding the ‘Look East’ policy, India’s understanding of and engagement with the ASEAN was limited. India became a full dialogue partner of the ASEAN. However, there was disagreement among the ASEAN members regarding the level and extent of India’s involvement. For example, when Singapore was much more interested for more meaningful engagement with India, Malaysia

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The flags of the ASEAN nations wrestling with the winds of the time

was reluctant. After the first IndiaASEAN summit, India was seen as a credible partner and subsequently, a decision was taken to make India-ASEAN summit a regular annual event. The fact that India had offered an FTA to the ASEAN gave credibility to India’s keenness to engage with the ASEAN meaningfully. There is geopolitical compulsion for the ASEAN to develop contacts with India. The ASEAN wants India to balance China as they do not want to be totally dominated by China. China does not favour a strong Indian presence and influence in Southeast Asia. China is aware of the various cultural and spiritual ties that India shares with the region, which could naturally attract the two regions to come closer. China knows that India is the only country that could possibly challenge its hegemony in Asia.

Defence Cooperation The other driver of India’s ‘Look East’ policy is strategic and security cooperation. In the sphere of defence, India has steadily expanded its defence cooperation with the East and Southeast Asian countries. India engages these countries through

India-ASEAN Plan of Action for the period of 2016-2020 stipulates politico -security, economic and socio-cultural ties regional confidence-building and cooperative mechanisms like the ASEAN Regional Forum, Regional Cooperation Agreement on combating piracy and armed robbery against

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ships in Asia and the MILAN exercise that India holds every alternate year. Apart from this, India has bilaterally organised exercises with the ASEAN countries as well as Japan and South Korea. Areas of cooperation include joint or coordinated naval petrolling, fighting piracy and other maritime security threats and military exercises. Speaking at the 14th India-ASEAN Summit held at Vientiane, Laos, Prime Minister Modi stressed that in the face of growing traditional and non-traditional challenges, politicosecurity cooperation is a key emerging pillar of our relationship. Rising export of terror, growing radicalisation through ideology of hatred and the spread of extreme violence define the landscape of common security threats to our societies. The threat is local, regional and transnational at the same time, the partnership with the ASEAN seeks to craft a response that relies on coordination, cooperation and sharing of experience at multiple levels. India and the ASEAN have Free Trade Area Agreement and signed agreement on counter terrorism. India is a founding member of the East Asia summit, established in 2005. This clearly underscores the success of India’s ‘Look East’ policy. India-Association of the East Asian Nations engagement at the summit level and subsequent developments have helped India to become a credible partner with major powers of Asia-Pacific region. Japan and Korea began to take India more seriously after the India-ASEAN summit-level engagement.

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regional stability

REFLECTIONS ON ‘LOOK EAST’ POLICY

Strategic Partnerships Realising the growing strategic and economic significance of the region, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has elevated India’s ‘Look East’ policy to the level of ‘Act East’ policy, which focuses on the extended neighbourhood in the Asia-Pacific region. The policy, initially conceived as an economic initiative has gained political, strategic and cultural dimensions. India has upgraded its relations to strategic partnership with Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Singapore, the ASEAN, etc. In addition to ASEAN, the ASEAN Regional Forum and the East Asia Summit, India is determined to be actively engaged in the regional fora such as the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation, the Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD), the Mekong-Ganga Cooperation Project and the Indian Ocean Rim Association.

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Of late, the ‘Look East’ policy has emphasised on the India-ASEAN cooperation in our domestic agenda on infrastructure, manufacturing, trade, skills, urbanisation, smart cities, Make in India programme and other initiatives. The India-ASEAN Plan of Action for the period of 2016-2020 adopted in 2015 stipulates concrete initiatives and areas of cooperation along the three pillars – politico-security, economic and socio-cultural ties. On connectivity, special efforts are being made to develop concrete strategy for linking India’s Northeast with the ASEAN member-states. Most experts agree that the centre of global geopolitics and geo-economics is slowly but surely shifting to Asia. The 21st century is widely perceived as the Asian century. Therefore, India’s ‘Look East’ policy must be an increasingly significant element of our foreign policy strategy.

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Mekong river, a part of the Mekong–Ganga cooperation project

regional stability

INTER-CONNECTIVITY THE KEY

25 Years of

Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Act East Policy The key to the success of the Act East Policy lies in the success of sub-regional initiatives such as Mekong-Ganga Cooperation (MGC), Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal (BBIN) and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral, Technological and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC). For this purpose, the involvement of key stakeholders is vital.

he year 2017 marks the 25th anniversary of Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Act East Policy, which was initiated as the Look East Policy in 1992. The Look and Act East Policy has been one of the major success stories of the Indian foreign policy in the past several decades. Naturally, thus, it has been gaining

June 2017

Dr Rahul Mishra The writer is a consultant at the Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India. Prior to joining the Ministry of External Affairs, he worked with the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA), New Delhi as Research Fellow from 2013 to 2017. Recipient of the prestigious 2015 Asia Fellowship of the East-West Center in Washington DC, he was a researcher at the Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi for four years (20092013). He specialises in AsiaPacific security issues.

traction under the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led NDA (National Democratic Alliance) government. The name of the Look East Policy was officially changed to Act East Policy by Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his address in the East Asia Summit (EAS) of 2014 in Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar, though mentions of such a policy shift

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INTER-CONNECTIVITY THE KEY

were earlier made by the Minister of External Affairs, Sushma Swaraj. During his address, Prime Minister Modi stated, “a new era of economic development, industrialisation and trade has begun in India. Externally, India’s ‘Look East Policy’ has become ‘Act East Policy’.” To announce the expansion and rechristening of the policy and make it more action-oriented, Prime Minister Narendra Modi chose Myanmar, not only because it lies at the tri-junction of India, China and Southeast Asia, but it is also considered as India’s gateway to Southeast Asia.

Evolutionary Approach From the academic perspective, the Act East policy may be termed as the third phase of the Look East, a move that was taken in the light of

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the fact that Phase I and Phase II of the policy could not yield the desired results. The Act East Policy signals a shift in India’s foreign policy that matches the growing footprint of India in the global politics. Needless

The main idea behind initiating such a policy has been to rekindle historical and civilisational ties to add, therefore, that through optimal utilisation of the Act East Policy, India has been striving to play more proactive role in the region and become a formidable regional player. The main idea behind initiating such a policy has been to rekindle

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Above: Delegates at the One Belt, One Road forum meet, facing page: PM Modi with the Prime Minister of Mongolia, Chimediin Saikhanbileg at Mini Naadam Festival

historical and civilisational ties with India’s immediate as well as extended neighbours on the eastern flank. While the scope of the policy has been expanded to include countries such as China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific Island Countries, the countries of the Southeast Asian region and their regional grouping of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region still occupy the centre stage. The strategic location and the economic growth of the Southeast Asian countries make the region attractive and compel India and other countries to reach out to the ASEAN. One of the central features of the Act East Policy is the consolidation of India’s expanded and deepening links with the Asia-Pacific region. The Act East

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Policy goes beyond the Southeast Asian geographical space and keeps trade and economic issues in sharp focus. It signifies India’s growing role and potential as a security provider in the region. In that context, it is natural for India to strive to cooperate with the countries of the region bilaterally as well as multilaterally.

Indicators Of Success Of The Policy Since assuming the office of the Prime Minister in May 2014, Narendra Modi has made several visits to the Asia-Pacific region which have given further boost to India’s engagement with the region. He visited countries such as Australia, China, Japan, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, South Korea and Vietnam in the first three years of his tenure.

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INTER-CONNECTIVITY THE KEY

He also became the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Fiji and Mongolia in several years. In a bid to expand the Act East Policy to the Pacific island nations, Modi also initiated the Forum for India-Pacific Island Countries (FIPIC) summit.

the Northeastern region is closely interlinked with the Southeast Asian region and beyond. It is in this context that connectivity specific issues are being addressed by the Indian government in an expeditious manner.

There has been several incoming visits to India from countries of the region. For instance, Indonesian President Joko Widodo paid a State visit to India in December 2016 and the Malaysian as well as Australian Prime Ministers visited India in April 2017. This is in addition to the visits of the Prime Minister of Singapore Lee Hsien Loong, the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe and other leaders from the region.

Main Drivers Of The Act East Policy

it is important for India to implement the already existing projects and proposals before floating new projects This regular exchange of visits underscores the fact that there is a greater political commitment from the present government which has defined the current phase of the Act East Policy. Second, the emphasis is on action. It is not only looking towards the East but also working towards a greater engagement with the countries on a wide range of issues. Third, India is not only striving to engage the ASEAN member countries, but also the countries of the wider Asia-Pacific region in political, strategic, cultural and economic domains. Fourth, the Northeastern region of India has become an important component of the Act East policy as the development of

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To say that recalibrating relations with countries under the Act East Policy is one of the foremost priorities for Modi government would not be an exaggeration. Physical, digital and economic connectivity form the bedrock of India’s integration with the Southeast Asian region and beyond. To ensure that India and the ASEAN region remain on the same page of connectivity, connectivity projects need to be expedited. Revised deadlines for completion of the Kaladan multimodal transport project in Myanmar and the trilateral highway project (linking India, Myanmar and Thailand) should be honoured and the projects be completed before it is too late. New Delhi has to do everything possible to plug the gaps in bridging connectivity. The two new initiatives mentioned above – for CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam) and for ASEAN – should also be put into effect as soon as possible.

Northeast India And Southeast Asia Connect So far as the eight Northeastern states of India are concerned, India is yet to fully tap their potential. A lot needs to be done to make the idea of Northeast as India’s gateway to Southeast Asia a reality. The Northeast can play a bigger role in the Act East Policy by furthering trade and economic, educational and

tourist linkages. There is an emerging consensus that to realise the dream of integrating of Northeast India with Southeast Asia, development of the Northeast region should be achieved first.

Changing Dynamics Rapidly changing strategic and economic dynamics of the region demands India’s greater participation. Amid the United States’ ad hoc policy towards Asia-Pacific region and China’s One Belt, One Road initiative, it has become even more vital for India to become proactive in the region. The Act East Policy can serve as a handy tool in meeting those objectives. The key to the success of the Act East Policy also lies in the success of sub-regional initiatives such as Mekong-Ganga Cooperation (MGC),

Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal (BBIN) and Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral, Technological and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC).

Myanmar had targetted to finish the Kaladan Waterway improvement by March of 2015

For this purpose, the involvement of key stakeholders is vital. The MGC is one of the most important groupings for India. Finally, it is important for India to implement the already existing projects and proposals before floating new projects. Speedy implementation of the projects will have lasting positive impact on India’s image and will lead to its greater credibility. Disclaimer: Views expressed in this article are that of the author and do not represent the views of Ministry of External Affairs and the Government of India.

June 2017

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regional stability

INDO-JAPAN DEFENCE COOPERATION

ShinMaywa Amphibious Aircraft Paradigm India and Japan have been discussing the broad contours of a possible sale of the ShinMaywa US-2 amphibious aircraft from 2012 onwards. However, the sale of the US-2 aircraft actually became possible once the Shinzo Abe government overturned Japanâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s post-War ban on exporting defence products in April 2014.

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ndia and Japan have been discussing the broad contours of a possible sale of the ShinMaywa US-2 amphibious aircraft from 2012 onwards. However, the sale of US-2 aircraft actually became possible once the Shinzo Abe government overturned Japan’s post-War ban on exporting defence products in April 2014. This change has meant that both

the governments have made efforts to market the US-2 apart from the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries manufactured Soryu diesel-electric submarines and Kawasaki Heavy Industries manufactured P-1 maritime patrol plane.

Meeting Of Minds Professor Vijay Khare

Efforts to acquire the aircraft received a big push during the four-day visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during May 2013 and subsequently, during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Japan in September 2014. India and Japan released a joint statement during the visit, which directed, “the Joint Working Group (JWG) to accelerate progress in the discussions and preparations for a road map for the development of the Indian aircraft industry through US-2 amphibian aircraft co-operation, including the transfer of the aircraft and its technology to India.”1 It was widely expected that Japan and India would sign an intergovernmental agreement on the US-2 aircraft during Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Japan in November 2016. However, the joint statement released following the visit merely highlighted Prime Minister Modi’s “appreciation for Japan’s readiness to provide its state of the art defence platforms such as US-2 amphibian aircraft. It symbolises the high degree of trust between the two countries and the distance that Japan and India have covered in advancing their bilateral defence exchanges.”2 The Japanese ShinMaywa US-2 is a short take off and landing (STOL) aircraft used primarily for Search and Rescue (SAR) missions and for

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The writer is the Director of the National Centre of International Security & Defence Analysis, he is the director of the International Centre and also a professor of Defence and Strategic Studies Savitribai Phule Pune University.

Dr Arun Vishwanathan The writer is the assistant professor, Department of Defence and Strategic Studies, Savitribai Phule Pune University, Pune.

“Tokyo Declaration for India - Japan Special Strategic and Global Partnership”, Ministry of External Affairs, September 01, 2014, http://www.mea.gov.in/ bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/23965/ Tokyo+Declaration+for+India++ Japan+Special+Strategic+ and+Global+Partnership 1

2 “India-Japan Joint Statement during the visit of Prime Minister to Japan”, Ministry of External Affairs, November 11, 2016, http://mea.gov.in/bilateraldocuments.htm?dtl/27599/ IndiaJapan+Joint+Statement+during +the+visit+of+Prime+ Minister+to+Japan

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INDO-JAPAN DEFENCE COOPERATION

inserting troops where landing strips are not available. The US-2 aircraft is essentially an upgraded version of the Shin Meiwa US-1 which entered service in the Japanese Maritime Self Defence Forces (JMSDF) in 1970s. The US-2 has four powerful RollsRoyce AE 2100 turboprop engines, one auxiliary engine and possessed better aerodynamics. Given that the aircraft can operate in very rough weather (Sea State 5) conditions, the US-2 is believed to be one of the best suited aircraft for SAR missions. The aircraft has a range of 4500 kms a seating capacity of 30 and a lift capacity of 18 tonnes.3

Price The Stumbling Block The Indian Navy has been pushing for the US-2 aircraft given its usefulness in Search and Rescue (SAR) and Disaster Relief missions and the fact that it can act as a force multiplier given the aircraft’s range of 4500kms. In addition, the aircraft offers the capability of amphibious landing of troops into areas which do not possess an airstrip. The US-2 can also be used for logistics support operations like crew rotation at sea, supplying spares to ships at sea and also for surveillance missions. Given that some of the US-2 aircraft will be stationed under the tri-service Andaman and Nicobar Command (ANC) it will allow for reaching farflung locations in the Andaman and Lakshadweep islands. Depending on the availability of funds, the Indian Navy plans to acquire between 10-18 US-2 amphibious aircraft. The US-2 programme cost is estimated at around US$ 3 billion spread over a seven-year period. It is slated to have an offset component worth US$ 900 million.4 However,

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despite the push at the strategic level, plans to acquire the US-2 amphibious plane have been delayed at the price negotiation stage. This is primarily due to the unit cost of the US-2 aircraft which is around US$ 133 million.

The JMSDF Kawasaki P-1 in flight with Mount Fuji in the background

Reports indicate that there exist differences within the government about the need for the aircraft After close to two years of negotiations, Japan has offered a price cut sweetener to cut the deal by reducing at 10 per cent concession per aircraft in October 2016. This has reduced the price for the aircraft from US$ 133 million to US$ 113 million per aircraft. This takes the total cost of acquiring the 12 amphibious aircraft to around US$ 1.35 billion. However, the Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) chaired by the then Defence Minister Manohar Parikkar

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3 Kazumine Akimoto and Yuko Takada, “US-2: The JMSDF Air-Sea Rescue Flying Boat”, Sasakawa Peace Foundation, https: //www.spf.org/ oceans/analysis_en/c1404.html 4 Atul Chandra, “India looks to acquire 18 ShinMaywa US-2 amphibians,” Flight Global, September 4, 2014, https://www. flightglobal.com/news/articles/indialooks-to-acquire-18-shinmaywa-us2-amphibians-403341/

(Left) The Luftfahrtgesellschaft Walter Dornier 228-200 at Hanover; (right) The sole current operator of the US-2 amphibian is the Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force (JMSDF)

deferred a decision on acquiring 12 US-2 amphibious aircraft. Reports indicate that there exist differences within the government about the need for the aircraft.5

Apart from the strategic importance of the deal, there are other important benefits that will accrue HAL’s Dornier Gambit

5 “Defence minister Manohar Parrikar defers Rs 10,000 crore deal for 12 Japanese aircraft,” Mail Today, November 10, 2016, http:// indiatoday.intoday.in/story/defenceminister-manohar-parrikar-defersrs-10-000-crore-deal-12-japaneseaircraft/1/807024.html 6 Shiv Aroor, “As India-Japan Deal Drifts, HAL Amphibian Aircraft Plan Surfaces”, February 23, 2017, Live Fist,

In the light of the hurdles in finalising the deal, the government owned Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) has been engaged in developing a seaplane version of the Dornier Do-228. The Do-288 are light transport aircraft which is built by the HAL under license production at the HAL’s Kanpur based factory. As Do-228 are already in service and the service depots and maintenance facilities are already in place, the Indian government could well look at this as an alternative in case the Indo-Japanese US-2 deal falls through.6

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Apart from the strategic importance of the deal, there are other important benefits that will accrue as a result of the agreement. The US-2 will be manufactured by the private sector and the Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) is unlikely to be involved in producing the aircraft under the licensed production route. Given that the final assembly and integration of the aircraft will take place in India and there is a transfer of technology component, the agreement will result in building up the capability of the Indian defence industries. Though the price component and establishing the importance of the aircraft for the Indian Navy is crucial, it is equally important not to lose sight of the strategic importance of the entire agreement. The fact that India is the recipient of this export sends out a very important signal on the expanding nature of the Indo-Japan strategic partnership.

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WORRY FOR INDIA

Map not to scale

regional stability

Need To Invigourate Neighbourhood Policy

China has very well used its economic diplomacy to buy the support of its smaller neighbouring countries. It has been spending large amounts of money in the infrastructure development in Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka, which are in desperate need of foreign investment. Knowing that India does not have the kind of money that China can offer to South Asian countries, it has invested extensively mainly to establish its formidable presence.

trengthening relations with immediate neighbours in South Asia has been one of the foremost priorities of the present Indian government. Prime Minister Narendra

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Modi’s invitation to the leaders of the South Asian countries to his oath-taking ceremony in 2014 was an indication towards Indian leadership’s commitment towards ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy. As soon as he assumed office,

Prime Minister Modi chose Bhutan for his first foreign visit. He also paid a State visit to Nepal in 2014 itself. In fact, he has, till now, visited six out of seven South Asian neighbours including a working visit to Pakistan. He is yet to visit Maldives. Clearly, India’s approach has become proactive in the recent years. However, India, despite being the largest country in the South Asian region, is still unable to establish unchallenged supremacy in the region. Its efforts have been overshadowed by a formidable presence of the Chinese. In addition to this, Pakistan’s lackadaisical attitude towards terrorism and China’s unconditional support to Pakistan have been major problems in maintaining a peaceful and stable South Asia. China’s major interests in the South Asian region include establishing strong foothold in the region, maintaining stability in Afghanistan, preparing Pakistan militarily to keep India confined in South Asia, and secure access to the Indian Ocean region through South Asia. The South Asian region has always ranked high in priority in China’s foreign as well as domestic policy calculations. This is partly because of its long border with five of the eight South Asian countries through its restive provinces, Tibet and Xinjiang. To say that the South Asian region is in a flux would not be entirely wrong. With the India-Pakistan conflict intensifying, several South Asian countries tilting towards China’s much-ambitious One Belt, One Road (OBOR) project and the failure of South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC), the South Asian integrity is in limbo. Apart from China’s all-weather friendship with Pakistan,

it has friendly relations with almost all South Asian countries. These factors are posing grave challenges to India’s position in the region.

Is India Perceived As A ‘Bully’? China’s ever-increasing influence in the South Asian region has much to do with the internal dynamics. Given that India is the largest country in the region, it is sometimes perceived as a bully by the countries of the region. A senior leader of ruling Nepal’s Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) stated last year, “Nepal will not accept the ‘big brother’ attitude of India though it intends to maintain cordial bilateral relations with the country”. There is a prevailing sense in the neighbourhood that India needs to move away from its ‘big brother’ attitude if it desires to help the smaller countries of the region.

Sana Hashmi The writer is currently working as a Consultant in the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA). Prior to this, she was associated with Centre for Air Power Studies (CAPS) from 2011-2016. She has published several book chapters and articles in journals, magazines and web portals. She is the author of the book, China’s Approach towards Territorial Disputes: Lessons and Prospects (New Delhi: Knowledge World, 2016).

India is sometimes perceived as a bully. This has provided room for China to increase its presence and influence India’s insistence on giving more representation to Madeshis and the Tharu ethnic minorities in Nepal’s constitution in 2015 was perceived by the Nepalese as meddling in their internal matters and drew them closer to the Chinese. With respect to Sri Lanka, the matter of the arrest of the fishermen and seizures of their fishing vessels by the Indian and Sri Lankan authorities has been a thorny issue in the bilateral relation. Such situations have provided room for China to increase its presence and influence. The South Asian countries

June 2017

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regional stability

WORRY FOR INDIA

are forced to choose between a resident power (India) and external dominant power (China). China, despite its ever-assertive behaviour, comes with several economic opportunities. India needs to keep in mind that while smaller countries in the South Asian region are worried about China’s hegemonic ambitions in Asia, they would be equally wary if not warier of India’s hegemony in the region. It is time for India to assure the neighbours that it believes in the welfare of all.

China Wooing South Asia With One Belt One Road China has very well used its economic diplomacy to buy the support of its smaller neighbouring countries. It has been spending large amounts of money in the infrastructure development in Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka, which are in desperate need of foreign investment. Knowing that India does not have the kind of money China can offer to South Asian countries, it has invested extensively mainly to establish its formidable presence. Now, it is using Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) and the 21st Century Silk Road (MSR) to further integrate with the economies of the countries from Asia, Africa and Europe. Though, India has spoken about its reservations against the OBOR, several South Asian countries are keen on joining the connectivity project, which is a major setback to India’s neighbourhood or regional diplomacy. While Pakistan and Sri Lanka have already confirmed their participation in the OBOR, Nepal is likely to be on board too.

China-Pakistan Nexus At present, the most alarming situation confronting India is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

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(CPEC) which is one of the most important corridors under the OBOR. The CPEC, which is a US$ 50 billion project, passes through the disputed Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), which is one of the major reasons for India’s reluctance to be on board for the OBOR. China has repeatedly stated that the OBOR has nothing to do with India-Pakistan conflict on Kashmir by remarking that, “China has no intention of interfering in the territorial dispute between India and Pakistan. China has long believed

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The 18th SAARC summit was focussed on Deeper Integration for Peace and Prosperity

that the two neighbours should solve their dispute through dialogue and consultations and it has repeatedly emphasised that the construction of the CPEC would not affect its stance on the issue.” However, the construction of the CPEC will not only undermine China-India relations but it will also have devastating impact on their understanding of each other’s territorial integrity. It is not only the CPEC which is problematic, China’s obstruction of

June 2017

India’s membership to the Nuclear Supplier’s Group (NSG) as well as overlooking India’s demand to ban Jaish-e-Mohammed leader Masood Azhar, the mastermind of the 2001 attack on Parliament and the 2016 attack on Pathankot airbase in the United Nations have a Pakistan connection. Clearly, China’s unconditional support (military as well as economic) to Pakistan is directly linked to its ambitions to confine India to the South Asian region.

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regional stability

WORRY FOR INDIA

Is SAARC A Failure? Reviving the SAARC was one of the objectives of the Modi government. However, inevitable differences between India and Pakistan have halted the functioning of the SAARC. The last SAARC summit took place in November 2014. While the SAARC is almost regarded as a failed regional organisation, China has shown consistent interest in becoming a member of the SAARC. Though it is not bound to gain much out of its membership, what it is bound to gain is its unquestioned presence in the region. It is important for India to keep China out of the SAARC as it is already in turmoil and there is a greater need for India to put in extra effort to revive the organisation.

China Trending Several South Asian countries are tilting towards China and this will boost its leadership ambitions in the region and beyond. China does not only want to be a major or decisive power in South Asia, it wants to establish its hegemony. India needs to retain its dominance in the South Asian region, not only for realising its regional ambitions but also to maintain peace and stability in the region. Implementing and fasttracking its own connectivity projects such as the BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal) and the BIMSTEC-EC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical Economic CooperationEconomic Corridor) is the need of the hour. It is in this context that India may also seriously think of reviving Mekong-Ganga Cooperation (MGC) to link South Asia with Southeast Asia that will bolster India’s positioning in South as well as Southeast Asia.

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India’s launching of the South Asia satellite to provide communications services to its neighbouring countries on 5 May 2017 has become a major achievement and bolstered its image in the region but it is high time for India to reset ties with smaller South Asian countries, particularly with Nepal and Sri Lanka. India has given much attention to the Act East Policy, the same vigour needs to be instilled in its neighbourhood policy with South Asia as the foremost priority.

China has encircled the world with its One Belt, One Road strategy

It is high time for India to reset ties with smaller South Asian countries, particularly with Nepal and Sri Lanka To sum it up, the Indian leadership may also focus on reviving the dialogue with Pakistan and keep any third party’s intervention at bay so that no third party can take advantage of the conflicts in the region. Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent the views of the Ministry of External Affairs and the Government of India.

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cyber security

WannaCry

Decoded In India, 95 per cent of the banks’ ATM machines are still using Windows XP which is the most vulnerable operating system. Support for Windows XP was discontinued by Microsoft in April 2014 which means since then the company hasn’t rolled out any security updates for this Windows version.

omputer systems worldwide and organisations dependent on them are reeling under the attack of a ransomware called WannCry. Ten thousands of computer systems in approximately 104 countries were affected by this cyber-attack that is touted to be one of the biggest attacks ever. The attack appeared to be slowing down after 24 hours of wreaking havoc in the global cyber space, but government are still issuing warnings to prevent further damage from a future attack.

What is Ransomware? Ransomware is a kind of cyber-attack wherein the hackers take control of the computer system and block access to it. Then they demand ransom from the owner of the computer system and don’t leave the system until the ransom is paid. The attack is launched by downloading malicious software on a system within the network. This is done by targeting one particular victim, by getting her or him to click on a link that starts the download automatically. Once

June 2017

Rohan Nyayadhish The writer is the founder and managing director of Digital Task Force Pvt Ltd, Cyber Crime Helpline, Digital Status Solutions LLP, Digital Business Registrations Pvt Ltd and Saya Welfare Foundations the NGOTrust. For the past 10+ years, he has been working in association with Maharashtra Police, CID, Anti-Terrorist Squad and other law enforcement agencies.

the malware is on any computer in the network, it can begin the attack by locking or encrypting all the files that it can access within the network. A company needs to have sophisticated security systems in place to be able to spot the attack and isolate important documents, to minimize the damage from the attack. Cyber criminals have been launching this kind of attack, normally to demand money in the form of BitCoin, in return for unlocking or decrypt the files.

What is WannaCry or Wanna Decryptor? WannaCry or Wanna Decryptor is a kind of ransomware that targets all kinds of files including word documents, PDF files, excel sheets, etc. and encrypts them with the extension .wcry. This means that all the data or files

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cyber security

on the compromised computer system is effectively locked and the user is left with only two files – one with instructions on what to do next and the Wanna Decryptor program itself. Once the software is opened, the user is told that all their files are encrypted and gives the users a few days to pay the ransom, threatening them against deleting the files. The software demands payments in BitCoin, relaying instructions on how to buy it and also provides a BitCoin address to send the money to. WannaCry spread very quickly through LAN unless companies have installed security software to bypass it.

Main Threat In India, 95 per cent of the banks’ ATM machines still using Windows XP which is the most vulnerable operating system. Support for Windows XP was discontinued by Microsoft in April 2014 which means that since then the company hasn’t rolled out any security updates for this Windows version. But as we have seen over the past few years, there has been a rise in the number of malware attacks, and this Ransomware catapulted a change in attitude from the banks, forcing them to make changes on the software front as well.

What to do if you’re a victim? Victims are advised to never pay the ransom as it encourages the attackers. Even if victims do pay there is also no guarantee that all files will be returned to them intact.

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Instead, the best thing to do is restore all files from a backup. If this isn’t possible, there are some tools that can decrypt and recover some information.

How much do hackers demand, and why in BitCoin? • Ransomware often demands between 0.3 and 1 BitCoin (UK£ 400), but can demand a payment denominated in dollars but made via BitCoin. • The digital currency is popular among cyber criminals as it is decentralised and practically impossible to trace. • Although it may seem a small amount, the Ransomware attacks are often widely distributed, so the ransom payments can stack up.

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BitCoin: What is it? A digital currency, used to make payments of any value without fees. It runs on the block chain, decentralised ledgers kept running by ‘miners’ whose powerful computers crunch transactions and are rewarded in BitCoin.

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Satoshi Nakamoto invented BitCoin in 2008. Many attempts to identify Satoshi have been made without conclusive proof.

How to protect against Ransomware attacks? • The best protection against attacks is to have all files backed up in a completely separate system. This means that if you suffer an attack you won’t lose any information. • Cyber attackers need to

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download the malicious software onto a device. The most common way is through compromised emails and websites. For example, hackers could send an employee a phishing email that looks like it comes from their boss asking them to open a link. But it actually links to a malicious website that surreptitiously downloads the virus onto their computer. Avoid downloading a bad program or app, and visiting a website that is displaying malicious adverts. Be suspicious of unsolicited emails and always type out web addresses yourself rather than clicking on links. Another key defence is antivirus programs that can scan files before they are downloaded, block secret installations and look for malware that may already be on a computer. Patch ASAP: While patching isn’t always easy to do or expedite in an enterprise environment, organisations should prioritise applying update MS17-010. An update for out-dated operating systems including Windows XP, Windows 8 and Windows Server 2003. Deploy runtime malware defence to block Wannacry and other malware at runtime.While attacks that target SMB and RDP ports may bypass other security, they can still be stopped at runtime with security software that recognizes and blocks malicious activity.

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