Austria -Economic Outlook June 2020

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Austria The COVID-19 outbreak has been relatively contained so far and the lockdown started to be gradually lifted in mid-April. GDP is projected to contract by 6.2% in 2020 if there are no further virus outbreaks (the single-hit scenario), and by over 7% if there is a renewed outbreak later this year (the double-hit scenario). Economic activity will pick up as confinement measures ease, but the economic recovery will nevertheless take time, with output still below its pre-crisis level by the end of 2021. Unemployment, and the number of people on short-time work schemes, has soared and is projected to remain high through the projection period. Given additional spending as part of the policy response and weaker tax revenues, a large government budget deficit will open up. The comparatively low rate of inflation is expected to slow in the near term, picking up somewhat in 2021. The swift policy response has ensured ample support for firms and households through liquidity injections, tax deferrals, credit guarantees and the short-time working scheme. Policymakers should ensure that the support programmes evolve according to the health and economic situation and continue to complement and replace existing broad measures, with more focussed support to limit adverse side-effects on the efficient allocation of resources. Restrictions are being gradually lifted after the lockdown The COVID-19 virus reached Austria in the early part of the year. The number of cases peaked at the end of March and has declined steadily since then. Due to a health system with relatively high capacity and very good accessibility, fatalities relative to population due to COVID-19 have so far been low. With a relatively large elderly population, a key challenge has been the propagation of the virus in care homes.

Austria Another virus outbreak would dent the recovery

Unemployment increases due to the Covid-19 crisis

Real GDP

Projected unemployment rate

Index 2019Q4 = 100, s.a. 103

100

November 2019 projections Single-hit scenario

Single-hit scenario

Double-hit scenario

Double-hit scenario

% of labour force 7.5

6.0

97

4.5

94

3.0

91

1.5

88

2019

2020

2021

0

0

2020

2021

0.0

Source: OECD Economic Outlook 107 database StatLink 2 https://doi.org/10.1787/888934139005

OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK VOLUME 2020 ISSUE 1: PRELIMINARY VERSION Š OECD 2020


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