Biotech Breakthroughs

STRATEGIC FORESIGHT FOR SUCCESSFUL NET-ZERO TRANSITIONS

Biotech Breakthroughs Biology and digitalisation intersect and transform the economy POSSIBLE 2030-2050 DISRUPTION Established industries are transformed as biotechnology becomes a key driver of economic growth. Biofoundries, factories for genetic products, proliferate around the world, rapidly generating and deploying synthetic biological innovations. Health care is revolutionised by gene-therapies and pharmaceuticals that can be quickly developed, tested, and distributed. New construction materials are produced cheaply, enabling booms in construction and textiles with the potential for materials that are carbon-neutral or negative. Similarly, innovations in synthetic biology influence food production, increasing crop yields and enabling localized, lab-grown food production.

Intellectual property battles brew as technological innovations spread globally before regulatory regimes can be developed, enabling some start-ups to make huge returns while upending established industries built around conventional production modes.

CONTEXT

A T E B

High-profile breakthroughs in genetics, such as the Nobel Prize winning CRISPR and emerging biofoundries (a new platform for manufacturing across a range of sectors), have transformed the scale and impact of synthetic biology. The coming innovations in biotechnology may be as transformative as the digital revolution.

However, there remains high uncertainty about the timing and extent of such developments and their potential to transform key sectors such as healthcare, food production, manufacturing and construction, and more generally, how and where we produce, consume and dispose of all sorts of material products. As the pace of innovation and development of new biotech takes off, methods of synthetic biology are becoming accessible to the general public.

Source: https://www.howitworksdaily.com/crispr-a-potential-cure-for-genetic-diseases/

This series is part of the Strategic Foresight for Successful Net-Zero Transitions toolkit which assists governments and organisations to develop forward-looking, adaptive and future-ready strategies for net-zero emission transitions.

Each part of the series showcases one “Possible Disruption” during the 2030-2050 period that could generate new opportunities or challenges for public policy. Each disruption was developed with foresight, academic and policy experts and represents a plausible extreme in a rapidly changing and uncertain future.

SIGNAL A DNA test that can detect over 50 genetic diseases has been developed, significantly enhancing early detection and rapid diagnosis.

SIGNAL Scientists are developing new building materials from fungi, and reducing plastic waste through genetically-engineered plastic-eating bacteria.

SIGNAL Scientists have developed an electrogenetic framework for storage of digital data in living cells.

POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS Population growth, population aging, and healthcare needs evolve as advances in medical technologies prevent premature deaths, diminish the effects of aging, and increase average lifespans. Planning trajectories for states may not match earlier projections. Increased pressure on pension schemes may occur, along with potentially lowering or at least delaying medical costs. Sustainable construction, itself a possibility due to biotechnologies, may become more necessary for sustaining larger populations as a result of increased lifespans.

Humans augment the adaptation potential of the biophysical environment through biotech applications to agriculture and biodiversity. Scientists develop drought and heat resistant crops that grow faster with fewer inputs and more nutritional content. Similarly, lab grown meat, requiring fewer inputs but more energy than livestock, makes high-protein food more accessible. Invasive species and pest populations are managed with gene drive technologies. These advances come with unintended consequences. Converted biotech cropland reduces biodiversity, while insect resistance and herbicide tolerance evolve. Furthermore, increased use of biomass could lead to over-exploitation of natural resources.

A T E B

There is a struggle between two very different regulatory and intellectual property regimes, one decentralised and one more controlled. In a decentralised model, biofoundries can be constructed anywhere and access to open-source innovations are be widely distributed, down to individuals in garages. This is a boon for small market and developing states, creating opportunities to rapidly develop and deploy innovations and expand economic growth. In a more centralised model, large companies that commercialise synthetic biology solutions to generate higher returns, further driving innovation and scale. In this model, jobs would likely cluster around existing advanced research hubs in developed countries. The different regulatory regimes bring different challenges for security protocols for the control of gene drives and unintended or malicious leaks.

QUESTIONS FOR POLICYMAKERS

POLICY RESPONSES

•

What early investments in regulation and research should states make in order to seize the opportunities and mitigate the risks posed by biotech?

•

How might workforce and skills requirements change?

•

How might a just intellectual property regime account for risks and equitable access to the benefits of biotechnologies?

•

What anticipatory systems are necessary to foresee unintended consequences?

Most governance in biomedicine focuses on identifying applications and regulating risks that arise post-development. The OECD’s Recommendation on Responsible Innov ation in Nanotechnology seeks to develop new forms of governance during the innovation phase of technology design. With nine principles, These first-of-akind standards embed current and emerging human right considerations in the technology innovation process. Guidance is offered for each phase: research, technology transfer, investment, commercialization and regulation.

STRATEGIC FORESIGHT FOR SUCCESSFUL NET-ZERO TRANSITIONS www.oecd.org/strategic-foresight | foresight@oecd.org