Climate Despair

STRATEGIC FORESIGHT FOR SUCCESSFUL NET-ZERO TRANSITIONS

Climate Despair Climate change creates a global mental health crisis POSSIBLE 2030-2050 DISRUPTION A substantial portion of the global population experiences a serious downturn in mental health attributable to climate change. Poll results show low levels of trust that institutional and collective global action will succeed in delivering a just net-zero transition, and the common expectation is that climate conditions will get worse. Declining optimism about the future, as well as tangible (e.g. property) and intangible (e.g. cultural heritage) losses, play heavily on people’s psyches. This leads to eroding well-being and values shifts that change individuals’ behaviour as both citizens and consumers, as they seek new loci of purpose and control in everyday life. The rate of those not in education, employment or training grows, especially among younger generations. Birth rates globally have begun to drop at a far faster rate than once expected.

CONTEXT

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After decades of government inaction on climate, citizens are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the future. According to a 2018 report from Yale Program on Climate Change Comm unication , only 6% of Americans say humans can and will reduce global warming. People living in some of the world’s hottest countries already fear losing their lives due to heatstroke. Climate anxiety and despair have the potential to severely impair people’s ability to function and contribute to society. Younger generations, who will be particularly affected by climate disruptions, have reported that climate change negatively affects their daily lives, including their ability to concentrate, eat, sleep, study, and enjoy their relationships.

Source: Nature

This series is part of the Strategic Foresight for Successful Net-Zero Transitions toolkit which assists governments and organisations to develop forward-looking, adaptive and future-ready strategies for net-zero emission transitions.

Each part of the series showcases one “Possible Disruption” during the 2030-2050 period that could generate new opportunities or challenges for public policy. Each disruption was developed with foresight, academic and policy experts and represents a plausible extreme in a rapidly changing and uncertain future.

SIGNAL

SIGNAL A significant proportion of young people factor climate change into their reproductive choices.

The Climate Psychology Alliance provides a directory of climateaware therapists, and the Good Greif Network has a 10Step model for eco-anxiety and grief.

SIGNAL In a study of 1,700 children who lived through major hurricanes, nearly half developed symptoms of PTSD , 10% of whose symptoms became chronic.

POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS Climate-induced despair could have major negative impacts on physical health, putting a greater burden on healthcare infrastructure. Issues with addiction, alcoholism and suicide could become worse. There could also be increases in interpersonal violence and other forms of crime. These forms of anti-social behaviour could drive a vicious cycle of declining safety and social trust, which may be challenging to address as well as undermine any coordinated efforts to address climate change.

Climate anxiety could have major negative effects for families and communities. Individuals may self-isolate and engage less in social activities. Mental health crises could also be detrimental to job performance and career progression. This, in turn, could mean people are less able to support families financially, compounding the harms caused by greater social isolation. More rapidly declining birth rates could also see far more young people from developing countries go abroad to work as care workers for aging societies. This could exacerbate the damage to family and social lives that stem from widespread social withdrawal among those struggling with climate anxiety.

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Climate-induced despair could undermine social cohesion and democratic participation. There may be less incentive for people to plan and save for the future. There may be greater incentive for policies with short-term pay-offs that are problematic in the long-term. There could be declining support for climate action that requires sacrifices in the present. Widespread apathy could also make it harder to build sufficient political support for large-scale interventions needed to mitigate or adapt to climate change.

QUESTIONS FOR POLICYMAKERS

POLICY RESPONSES

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How can the citizens be supported to feel that they can make a positive change to the climate emergency?

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How can the strong social ties be created and leveraged to promote psychosocial resilience?

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How might climate despair exacerbate existing social and psychological vulnerabilities?

Following Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, the Philippines Department of Health, International Medical Corps, Médecins Sans Frontières, Save the Children and WHO formed a collaboration to promote mental health and psy chosocial support (MPHSS) . The partners implemented a capacity building program trained 90% of Eastern Visayas’s nonspecialist health personnel to provide mental health care and guaranteed access to psychotropic medicines. Over 1,028 people were trained and as of January 2020, over 4 million people in the region have access to quality mental health care.

STRATEGIC FORESIGHT FOR SUCCESSFUL NET-ZERO TRANSITIONS www.oecd.org/strategic-foresight | foresight@oecd.org