Cyberslowdown

STRATEGIC FORESIGHT FOR SUCCESSFUL NET-ZERO TRANSITIONS

Cyber Slowdown The dark side of digitalisation leads to economic decline POSSIBLE 2030-2050 DISRUPTION Cyberattacks are regularly carried out by increasingly numerous and capable state and non-state actors causing a slowdown and in some cases a reversal in the course of digitalisation. Attacks overwhelm the cyber-defences available to individuals, organisations and governments to the degree that no digital space is safe. Hackers have deeply destabilized digital infrastructure. High profile ransomware attacks on critical infrastructure diminish public faith in smart systems, and there is mounting pressure on governments to provide analogue alternatives and backups in energy, communications and healthcare. The advance of the digital economy declines as consumers and organisations retreat to safety offline.

CONTEXT

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Digitalisation is a megatrend that policymakers are leaning on to address the threats of climate change. Almost half of the emissions reductions by 2050 laid out in the IEA’s Net Zero Roadmap are only in demonstration or prototype phase today.

There is an implicit assumption in much netzero strategy planning that cybersecurity risks, which could disrupt innovation, will be sufficiently mitigated in the future. However, cybercrime is growing, and a more digitalised world has a larger attack surface for hackers to exploit and large-scale breaches could harm the trust consumers are willing to place in emerging technologies. If cybersecurity risks grow worse over time, this could undermine the ability of technology to be a driving force behind climate action.

Source: Statista

This series is part of the Strategic Foresight for Successful Net-Zero Transitions toolkit which assists governments and organisations to develop forward-looking, adaptive and future-ready strategies for net-zero emission transitions.

Each part of the series showcases one “Possible Disruption” during the 2030-2050 period that could generate new opportunities or challenges for public policy. Each disruption was developed with foresight, academic and policy experts and represents a plausible extreme in a rapidly changing and uncertain future.

SIGNAL Hackers believed to be directed by the Russian intelligence service slipped malicious code into SolarWinds, software used by over 100 companies and governments.

SIGNAL A ransomware attack on major gas pipeline threated to cut much of the United States off from access to fuel.

SIGNAL Tech experts have warned about the possibility of largescale ransomware attacks on smart-city systems.

POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS The potential for the loss of privacy could lead to a higher transaction costs in business and less information sharing in research, slowing the rate of innovation. This slowing of technological progress could be especially acute in key sectors that rely on highly sensitive data, such as biotechnologies. Investors may also be less willing to support projects if risks of ransomware or corporate espionage raise the cost of doing business or undermine the ability to turn a profit through innovations. Similarly, firms may be more reliant on in-person work for security purposes, leading to more business travel, more commuting and more office space, all increasing global emissions.

Energy systems could have far higher need for redundancy than expected. If significant portions of the electricity grid were taken offline by a cyberattack, then it would be necessary to have excess power supply to withstand the shock. There could be a need for governments to ensure steps are taken to monitor, measure and minimise digital security risks facing critical green infrastructure. If adequate steps are not taken, this may incentivize some jurisdictions to keep fossil fuel operations running as a means of providing energy security. Furthermore, firms may have a higher cyber-risk tolerance on an individual level than is acceptable for society in the aggregate, and governments may need to address this discrepancy in order to ensure green transition objectives are met.

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Cyberattacks could cause widespread distrust and consumer failure to adopt green technologies. If internet-connected cars, especially self-driving cars, were hit with a large ransomware attack, this could slow the transition to sustainable transportation as people may refrain from purchasing new, high-tech electric vehicles perceived to be less secure than older vehicles that still run on fossil fuels. Similarly, smart household systems increase energy efficiency but also provide additional opportunities to be compromised.

QUESTIONS FOR POLICYMAKERS

POLICY RESPONSES

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What is the appropriate level of spending to sufficiently protect critical infrastructure and the backups required?

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How can trade-offs between measures to ensure cybersecurity and regulations that support innovation best be balanced?

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What privacy and governance risks may result from increased cybersecurity measures?

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What systems may become vulnerable to future attacks and need to be prioritized for protection?

In 2020, the United States Department of Energy’s Solar Energy Technologies Office launched a multi-year plan to advance cybersecurity R&D and preparedness for emerging energy technologies. The plan has resulted in the inclusion of cybersecurity requirements into calls for proposals, a roadmap for wind cybersecurity, the compilation of best practices for securing operational facilities, and new public-private partnerships for energy efficiency manufacturing.

STRATEGIC FORESIGHT FOR SUCCESSFUL NET-ZERO TRANSITIONS www.oecd.org/strategic-foresight | foresight@oecd.org