Divided World

STRATEGIC FORESIGHT FOR SUCCESSFUL NET-ZERO TRANSITIONS

Divided World Climate cooperation amid a fight for global supremacy POSSIBLE 2030-2050 DISRUPTION The relationship between the West and China deteriorates to the point that the world is divided between two separate sets of digital and economic infrastructures with divergent norms and standards. The rest of the world is forced to largely choose sides and interact with only one power while decoupling their economies from the other. There is intense competition for global supremacy led by the United States and China that spills over in all major areas of the economy. Negotiations in all multilateral fora in which the two superpowers participate have stagnated as allies of each power have also hardened their stances.

CONTEXT

A T E B

The future of the West’s relationship to China is unclear, despite a large degree of cooperation being declared essential in order to combat climate change. The IEA’s Net-zero 2050 Framework explicitly assumes international cooperation on climate will continue, “The pathway to net‐zero emissions by 2050 will require an unprecedented level of international co‐operation between governments. This is not only a matter of all countries participating in efforts to meet the net zero goal, but also of all countries working together in an effective and mutually beneficial manner.”

As tensions between the world’s superpowers rise, global cooperation is far more challenging to future-ready net-zero strategies.

Source: Chicago Council on Global Affairs

This series is part of the Strategic Foresight for Successful Net-Zero Transitions toolkit which assists governments and organisations to develop forward-looking, adaptive and future-ready strategies for net-zero emission transitions.

Each part of the series showcases one “Possible Disruption” during the 2030-2050 period that could generate new opportunities or challenges for public policy. Each disruption was developed with foresight, academic and policy experts and represents a plausible extreme in a rapidly changing and uncertain future.

SIGNAL

SIGNAL

Competition with China enjoys bipartisan support in the United States, including intensifying competition over technology and in the Indo-Pacific.

Chinese companies are a driving force behind digitalisation in Africa.

SIGNAL Foreign policy experts have engaged in a heated debate about whether it is beneficial or not for great power competition to extend to climate change, which has already begun. .

POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS Access to key inputs for green technologies may be cut off by the opposing sides in a more divided world. Supply chains may need to be redesigned and input costs for green technologies could rise. China may continue to be the largest producer and user of coal power in order to ensure energy autonomy. Similar delays in transitions away from high-emitting industries in the West may occur if these industries are seen as a buffer against exploitation by the other superpower. Conversely, this could potentially make certain energy options, such as nuclear power, more appealing in the West.

Intensifying global competition could potentially be leveraged to encourage rather than undermine climate action. Fierce competition may bring opportunities for the green transition. If climate related innovation becomes a key indicator of success in the polarized competition, superpowers may increase research and development funding and accelerate technological development timelines. Each superpower may compete for global influence through subsidization of sustainable development in low- and middle-income countries.

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Great power competition could lead to a complete breakdown of shared spaces for communication, ranging from social media to industry and academic conferences and diplomatic forums. This could mean grassroots campaigns lose the ability to have global impact as they can only speak to audiences within their blocs. Leadership within the blocs may also invest more heavily in shaping domestic perceptions of the other superpower, including scapegoating them for shortcomings on global climate action.

QUESTIONS FOR POLICYMAKERS

POLICY RESPONSES

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What are policy options that help the U.S. and China collaborate and compete without conflict in ways that accelerate a global netzero transition?

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What can be done to protect communities and economies from the negative externalities of intensified great power competition?

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How can civil society be emboldened to increase climate cooperation despite increasing competition and security concerns?

While competition may be increasing, the United States and China continue to find areas for collaboration and joint action to address climate change. During COP26 in Glasgow, the two countries issued an announcement pledging to work together to slow global warming. Chinese and American leaders agreed to take “enhanced climate action” and “raise ambition in the 2020s.” Previously, President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping build a partnership a year before the Paris climate accord, helping to make the international agreement a reality.

STRATEGIC FORESIGHT FOR SUCCESSFUL NET-ZERO TRANSITIONS www.oecd.org/strategic-foresight | foresight@oecd.org