Going for Growth 2019
The time for reform is now 12th July 2019
The time for reform is now World trend real GDP per capita growth decomposition by factor, % points 4.5
3
35.0
Advanced economies (left axis)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
32.5
Source: OECD, Economic Outlook Database.
7 5
1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1
2060
9
1.5
2055
37.5
2
2050
11
40.0
2.5
2045
13
42.5
30.0
15
Employment rate Labour efficiency
2040
Emerging-market economies (right axis)
3.5
2035
45.0
17
2030
47.5
4
2025
50.0
Extrapolations based on pre-crisis trends
2010
52.5
19
2005
55.0
Working-age population Capital per worker World
2020
GDP per capita in thousands USD, constant 2010 prices and PPPs
Ageing will weigh on global growth prospects
2015
GDP per capita is on a lower path than before the crisis
Note: “World” refers to an aggrega5te of 46 countries, accounting for 82% of today’s world output at PPPs. Working age population is defined as 15-74 years old. Source: Guilemettte and Turner, 2018.
2
Reforms need to improve the situation of the most vulnerable Inequality is still very high, in particular in emergingmarket economies
In many OECD countries, low-income households are still struggling with the aftermaths of the global financial crisis
Gini coefficient, disposable income
Index 1995 = 100
140
Advanced economies
Emerging-market economies
135
SVK
Median
USA
24.1
29.7
39.1
125
RUS
Median
ZAF
120
37.7
46.2
63.0
Top 10%
130
Median
115 110
Bottom 10%
105 100 1995 Notes: Emerging market economies excluding India and Indonesia. 2016 or last available year. Source: OECD, Income Distribution Database; World Bank, World Development Indicators; China National Bureau of Statistics.
2000
2005
2010
2015
Note: Unweighted average for 19 OECD countries. Source: OECD (2019), Under Pressure: The Squeezed Middle Class.
3
Yet, the pace of reform is not fast enough The pace of structural reforms is well below the post-crisis peak Responsiveness rates to Going for Growth recommendations, %
45
Advanced economies Emerging-market economies
40
35
30
25
20
2007-08
2009-10
2011-12
2013-14
2015-16
2017-18
Note: Simple average across countries.
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Going for Growth 2019: reforms to boost inclusive, environmentally-sustainable growth To guide policymakers where to best focus reform efforts in 46 OECD and key non-member economies: • Setting the Top 5 reform priorities for each economy • Recommending policy measures to address them • Tracking reform actions No one-size-fits all solutions 5
Reforms to ensure stronger and fairer outcomes Going for Growth 2019 reform priorities across main policy areas
Note: Blue colour indicates priorities primarily targeting labour productivity, green colour indicates priorities primarily targeting labour utilisation. This distinction is only approximate, as many priority areas, e.g. education, can impact both labour productivity and labour utilisation.
6
Key recommendations in product market regulation, competition and trade and FDI openness
7
Key recommendations in skills and education
8
Key recommendations in labour market policies (I)
9
Key recommendations in labour market policies (II)
10
Key recommendations in provision of infrastructure Infrastructure
11
Gains in growth comes with an environmental burden Global greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase Greenhouse gas emissions from fuel combustion (Mt of CO2 equivalent)
25000
Emerging-market economies
20000 Advanced economies 15000
10000
5000
0
1990
2000
Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Database.
2005
2010
2012
2015
12
Growth has to be environmentally sustainable Countries with green growth priorities and recommendations in Going for Growth 2019
Note: see Going for Growth 2019, Chapter 3 for details.
13
The time for reform is now, for better lives and for future generations! Thank you!
http://oe.cd/gfg
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