Green Tech Failure

STRATEGIC FORESIGHT FOR SUCCESSFUL NET-ZERO TRANSITIONS

Green Tech Failure Innovation shortfalls necessitate larger behavioural shifts POSSIBLE 2030-2050 DISRUPTION Technological progress in the 2020s and 2030s is underwhelming in several key areas related to green transitions. Cost-effective technologies in heavy transport, aviation, battery storage, electricity transportation and carbon capture do not materialize at expected rates. Significant investments in several green sectors do not bring beneficial returns for investors or consumers. There are major barriers to technology transfer and scaling up in the sectors that do experience progress, further limiting the diffusion of sustainable products and infrastructure, especially to low- and middle-income countries.

CONTEXT

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Nearly all net-zero transition strategies will require significant technological breakthroughs in order to succeed.

According to the sixth IPCC, most 1.5°C and 2°C pathways are heavily reliant on large-scale carbon dioxide removal before mid-century. Almost half of the emissions reductions by 2050 laid out in the IEA’s Net Zero Roadmap are only in the demonstration or prototype phase today.

Meanwhile, oil and gas combined still supplied nearly 60% of global primary energy in 2020. Progress is required on batteries for electric vehicles, especially heavy transport, more sustainable forms of jet fuel, ways to transport and store renewable power and significant strides in affordable carbon capture, use and storage.

Contingency planning for what happens if innovation falls significantly short in several areas may need to become part of robust net-zero strategy development.

GROWTH IN DEMAND FOR SELECTED BATTERY-RELATED MINERALS FROM CLEAN ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES IN 2040

Chart uses aggregate mineral demand from a wide range of clean energy technologies under the IEA’s Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) and the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS).

Source: IEA

This series is part of the Strategic Foresight for Successful Net-Zero Transitions toolkit which assists governments and organisations to develop forward-looking, adaptive and future-ready strategies for net-zero emission transitions.

Each part of the series showcases one “Possible Disruption” during the 2030-2050 period that could generate new opportunities or challenges for public policy. Each disruption was developed with foresight, academic and policy experts and represents a plausible extreme in a rapidly changing and uncertain future.

SIGNAL A group of economists have postulated that the pace of technological progress may be slowing as innovation hits a point of diminishing returns.

SIGNAL Carbon capture, use and storage remains too expensive for deployment at scale and some of the largest projects have often failed to meet their target volumes.

SIGNAL Some experts have warned about the risks of attempting to cease the usage of fossil fuels before renewable alternatives are ready to fill the gap.

POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS If innovation falls short, successful net-zero transitions would then need to rely far more heavily on behavioural shifts. This may occur at a time when there could be a loss of faith in government and industry to deliver the necessary breakthroughs, which, in turn, could make it harder to craft a compelling narrative about collective sacrifice to mitigate climate change. This pressure could incentivize far greater shifts to virtual reality to enable more transformative behavioural shifts that minimize transportation emissions or more extreme geoengineering if the emissions situation causes desperation.

The failure of the green tech sector to materialize could have massive financial repercussions. There could be a large-scale loss of faith among investors and funds may continue to flow into high emitting industries. On the labour front, there could be increased unemployment if extractive sectors are phased down and there are not equivalent jobs in green sectors that emerge. On the other hand, certain analogue skillsets may end up being far more in demand than were planned for.

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This disruption could lead to major challenge for a global just transition if low- and middle-income countries can only develop in ways that increase emissions. Infrastructure funding from high-income countries to developing economies may be diminished if the most needed technologies increase emissions. This development assistance problem could become much worse if high-income countries fear that they must further curtail consumption and other emitting behaviours in the event that emerging economies increase their emissions as a result of development.

QUESTIONS FOR POLICYMAKERS

POLICY RESPONSES

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What carbon austerity measures might become necessary and can they be implemented equitable?

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What policies focused on reducing energy demand and behaviour change could be implemented now?

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How can policymakers anticipate and mitigate supply-chain and economic barriers to the scaling out of new technologies?

Responding to climate change and COVID-19, Paris adopted the 15-minute city model. At its core, this model states that cities should be (re)designed to ensure that all residents are able to access their daily essential needs within a 15-minte walk or bike ride.

The mayor has announced EUR 350 million to create a bike lane for every street by 2024 and remove 60,000 parking spaces. The city is also increasing green space, such as the recently transformed Place de la Bastille, and renovating public housing with day care facilities, clinics, office spaces, and cafes.

STRATEGIC FORESIGHT FOR SUCCESSFUL NET-ZERO TRANSITIONS www.oecd.org/strategic-foresight | foresight@oecd.org