OECD Observer No 316 Q4 2018

Economic outlook p7 Cool electricity generation p9 Mental illness in Europe: Databank p33 No 316 Q4 2018

www.oecdobserver.org

Looking up Spotlight on Dynamic Africa From page 11

ŠBenny Jackson/Unsplash

Young people celebrate in Mali

p20

CONTENTS No 316 Q4 2018 www.oecdobserver.org

YOUR VIEWS 2

18 Infrastructure: We must find alternatives to state funding

Ibrahim Assane Mayaki, CEO, New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) Agency 20 What hope for peace in Mali?

Julia Wanjiru 22 Development blogs

Motivation for innovation; Global citizens; Show me a heroine; Financial literacy; Teach the teachers; Twitterings

EDITORIAL 3

The Paris Peace Forum: A timely opportunity to stand for peace Angel Gurría, Secretary-General of the OECD

OECD.ORG

NEWS BRIEF 4

Global growth is slowing; US$2 per person to stop superbugs; Tax revenues are rising; Soundbites; Economy; Country roundup; Other stories; Plus ça change

BLOGS 6 BlogServer

ECONOMY

25 Multilateralism and global challenges: “The work of the OECD is vital”

Gérard Larcher, President of the French Senate 26 Standing together for peace; International co-operation in action: Strengthening tax capacity for development; Lies, damn statistics, and well-being; Culture for local development 27 Recent speeches by Angel Gurría; List of OECD Ambassadors 28 Calendar

7

BOOKS

SPOTLIGHT: DYNAMIC AFRICA

29 Reviews: Tackle corruption to protect wildlife; No more “9 to 5” 30 New publications 31 Focus on development 32 Review: A history of Egypt’s social spring

Growth has peaked: Challenges of engineering a soft landing

Laurence Boone 9 Cool generation

11 Africa’s dynamic development

Mario Pezzini 12 Africa’s integration: Groundbreaking but not so new

Sarah Lawan and Rodrigo Deiana 14 OECD Observer Roundtable on regional integration in Africa

Yvonne Mburu, Amel Karboul, Malusi Gigaba, Mamadou Diallo, Stefano Manservisi 17 It’s time to foster Africa’s science revolution

Thierry Zomahoun, President and CEO, African Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS)

Founder and Chair, Next Einstein Forum (NEF)

www.oecdobserver.org www.oecdinsights.org ©OECD December 2018 ISSN 0029-7054 Tel.: +33 (0) 1 45 24 9112 Fax: +33 (0) 1 45 24 82 10 sales@oecd.org Founded in 1962. The magazine of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD Publications 2 rue André Pascal 75775 Paris cedex 16, France observer@oecd.org www.oecd.org

Africa’s dynamic development, p11

Cool generation, p9

DATABANK 33 Mental illness in Europe; The rising cost of cyber attacks 34 Main economic indicators 36 Taxes for development; Crossword

Gérard Larcher, President of the French Senate, on multilateralism and global challenges, p25

Published in English and French by the OECD EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: Rory J. Clarke EDITORS: Ileana Epsztajn, Kate Lancaster, Anne-Lise Prigent, Janine Treves, Clara Young ASSISTANT EDITOR: Balázs Gyimesi EDITORIAL ASSISTANT: Cara Yakush EDITORIAL INTERN: Gabriella Elanbeck LAYOUT: Design Factory, Ireland ILLUSTRATIONS: David Rooney ADVERTISING MANAGER: Aleksandra Sawicka Applications for permission to reproduce or translate all or parts of articles from the OECD Observer, should be addressed to: The Editor, OECD Observer, 2 rue André Pascal, 75775 Paris, cedex 16, France.

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Your views Twitterings

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Motivation for innovation

Financial literacy

Is anyone addressing how to motivate public servants to innovate? In the private sector the risk-reward equation is clear.

But the motivation for public servants seems less so?

As a financial literacy educator, I’ve discovered that teaching concepts and outcomes of financial decisions often resonates with all age and income groups.

Teaching investment instruments or vehicles can be distracting and often a disconnect for persons with limited money. Ultimately, if you save money, pay off debt/borrow as a last resort and learn to give in a charitable way, money becomes manageable.

In the private sector companies form, progress a new idea. Most fail, but some succeed with great reward to customers and owners. How to deal with unsuccessful innovation in government?

James Whelan, commenting on “Innovation is a manysplendoured thing” on the OPSI blog at https://oecdopsi.org/innovation-is-a-many-splendoured-thing/

Global citizens If we do not offer to everyone, especially children, the opportunity to develop their cross-cultural abilities, we cannot expect a humane globalisation. Astonishingly, we acknowledge that maths and languages are important, but the abilities to be and think like a global citizen are not even on the radar.

Jacques Drolet, commenting on “L’esprit de frontière: un défi pour le multilatéralisme” on The Forum Network at https://www.oecd-forum.org/users/206939-enrico-letta/ posts/43134-l-esprit-de-frontiere-un-defi-pour-lemultilateralisme

Show me a heroine “We need to restructure the narratives of the hero of the successful business man and portray more successful stories of women who became an astronaut, an engineer or a scientist”. I agree with him.

Rossi 123, commenting on “OECD Forum 2018: Women in Tech” on The Forum Network at https://www.oecdforum.org/users/181548-grainne-dirwan/posts/41008oecd-forum-2018-women-in-tech

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Jose Northover, commenting on “What should students learn in the 21st century?” on OECD Education & Skills Today at http://oecdeducationtoday.blogspot. com/2012/05/what-should-students-learn-in-21st.html

Teach the teachers I agree that a lot of what is currently taught in schools could be much more in touch with 21st century life. The problem is, I feel, that while teachers are busy teaching, the world is moving on at a tremendous speed, and professional development opportunities are often too general, non-subject specific and don’t address the issues covered in the article. Unless we start to provide high-quality, regular opportunities for teachers to develop their own skills, and the time to do it in, I fear that we will not see education moving forward in the right direction.

Anonymous, commenting on “What should students learn in the 21st century?” on OECD Education & Skills Today at http://oecdeducationtoday.blogspot. com/2012/05/what-should-students-learn-in-21st.html

Marten van den Berg @BergMarten #OECD Economic Outlook: clouds are gathering on the horizon, trade restrictions are hurting the global economy. http://oe.cd/27o Alexa Joyce @alexajoyce A range of pedagogies is effective for STEM teaching & learning according to the latest OECD report. Enquiry-based, teacher-directed and differentiated are all useful–depending on context. https://oe.cd/il/2vx Hanna Honkamäkilä @honkamakila In #Paris at #OECD in co-operation with Commission’s DG #RegionalPolicy focusing on “Peer learning in industrial transition regions”. Preparing for next financing period 2021-2027 @ppliitto @Kainuunliitto Charlotte T Weber @cha_weber Did you know about the new database from the @OECD on #skills for #jobs?

Check it out to see what skills are needed in what country and for what job! https://bit.ly/2XlMBFg @Eurodoc Dimitris Makrystathis @makrystath On World Children’s Day, @OECD’s research found that the number of poor children in rich countries increases: around 1 in 7 children live in income poverty! Read more: https://goo.gl/d7q6rS #WorldChildrensDay Prof Gayle McPherson @gmp01 Olympic Games–the new norm needs to show sustainability and legacy for the host city.

Joint planning between host city Tokyo and IOC has reduced venue cost by £2m already #HostCity2018 #eventprofs @OECD_local Stefano Nichele @stenichele My summary of the #OECD workshop day 1 @OsloMet: 1) #ArtificialLife & evolution are key to #AI development. 2) Politicians and policymakers are very confused on what AI is. We (scientists) should stop using buzzwords (AI, ML, etc, too misleading) & use more scientific terms.

Follow us on Twitter @OECDObserver Comments and letters may be edited for publishing. Send your letters to observer@oecd.org or post your comments at www.oecdobserver.org or the other OECD portals on this page.

EDITORIAL

The Paris Peace Forum: A timely opportunity to stand for peace Have we not learned the lessons of our past, that in a divided world we all lose? Or that, on our small, interconnected planet, hauling up the draw-bridge offers fake protection?

Angel Gurría Secretary-General of the OECD

When the First World War ended a hundred years ago in November 1918, more than a generation would pass before the world order regained some stability. Immediately after the war, there was a short boom followed by a stock market crash in 1929, a worldwide Great Recession, a resurgence of nationalism and then the outbreak of another, even more deadly, conflict.

Much has improved since this turbulent period, including the establishment of a new multilateral system to promote peace, international co-operation and the development of nations. Today we live in troubled times: the world is still hurting from the worst economic, financial and social crisis of our lifetimes, with the scars visible in jobless queues, high debt levels, people’s weak pay packets, and wider inequalities. And the wounds have now infected our politics, driving people apart rather than bringing us closer together.

With trust at a low ebb, it would be wrong to underestimate the on-going slide towards nationalism, populism and protectionism, and the fragility that this brings to our societies and political systems. Although many countries still firmly support international co-operation, the multilateral organisations that had become bulwarks against war, from the UN to the Bretton Woods institutions and the OECD itself, are under threat. True, as the crisis jolted us into realising, our institutions need updating and strengthening to better confront the global challenges that we face and deliver results for people everywhere. But attempts to undermine or abandon them would be reckless.

It was from the ashes of that Second World War that the Organisation for European Economic Co-operation was forged, to rebuild ruined cities, countries and institutions in an atmosphere of trust and respect. The OEEC was the predecessor of the OECD, and demonstrated in concrete ways that by working alongside each other, nations large and small, strong and weak, could accomplish great things, including a lasting peace. The OECD was born in 1961, carrying forward this legacy of co-operation by governments in identifying best practices in all public policy domains. Since then, we have made great progress in shaping together standards and rules that can help harness the potential

of open markets and societies, in fields as diverse as development, the environment, trade and investment, international taxation and social policies–putting the benefits of globalisation at the service of our citizens and making growth more inclusive and respectful of the environment. And yet, as we finish 2018, our work is far from done: many people are left behind and we cannot fail them.

The Paris Peace Forum is as a timely opportunity to stand for peace and reaffirm the value of international co-operation as a driver for progress. Peace is in the OECD’s DNA: even our founding convention from 1960 was drafted in the very hotel where the Paris Peace Accords to end the Vietnam War would be signed just a decade later. We are living proof that by working alongside each other, we can accomplish great things, including a lasting peace.

For peace is not merely the absence of war, but a constant and concerted action towards a better future for all.

Alone, countries soon realise they must reach out for scarce resources, markets, know-how, ideas, technology and the help of friends. The only way to overcome our limitations is for all countries to work together multilaterally, while respecting each other’s differences and drawing richness from such diversity.

Our world urgently needs all hands on deck, including our most powerful countries, if we are to resolve global problems such as corruption, human trafficking, tax evasion, cybercrime and climate change.

The OECD works tirelessly on all these fronts as part of our efforts to promote well-being, sustainability and inclusiveness. As the Paris Peace Forum underlines, better governance is key for peace, and indeed we are honoured that the hosts have chosen to illustrate this by highlighting our organisation’s contributions through concrete projects: notably our work with developing countries to help strengthen their public finances under our programme called Tax Inspectors Without Borders; our work on local governance to bolster the global 2030 Sustainable Development Goals; and our recently established Business for Inclusive Growth Platform.

Through international co-operation, the OECD strives to achieve the full development of all of our societies by laying the conditions of human progress, health and happiness that only an active peace can deliver, and only war can destroy. If the crisis taught us anything, it is that if we do not advance together, then we cannot truly succeed.

By marking the centenary of the First World War, we stand for peace. Only through peace can we work together to forge a better world and better lives for all.

This article was originally published on 12 November 2018 on medium.com. See the original version here: https://medium.com/paris-peace-forum/the-paris-peace-forum-atimely-opportunity-to-stand-for-peace-158540e24c89 @A_Gurria www.oecd.org/about/secretary-general/

www.oecdobserver.org/angelgurria

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OECD Observer No 316 Q4 2018

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News brief Global growth is slowing Global economic growth remains strong but has passed its recent peak and faces escalating risks, including rising trade tensions and tightening financial conditions, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook. Growth forecasts for next year have been revised down for most of the world’s major economies. Global GDP is now expected to expand by 3.5% in 2019,

compared with the 3.7% forecast in last May’s Outlook, and by 3.5% in 2020.

In many countries, unemployment is at record lows and labour shortages are beginning to emerge. But rising risks could undermine the projected soft landing from the slowdown.

See www.oecd.org/economy/

US$2 per person to stop superbugs

Tax revenues are rising

4

[…] 10 years after the great financial crisis, we are safer, and measures have been taken. But we are not safe enough.

Christine Lagarde, IMF Managing Director at the 2018 Annual Meetings of the IMF, Bali, Indonesia, 11 October 2018

In a world where conflict remains all too prevalent, we look to how we can achieve a better future. We think of our commitment as a nation to the ideals of peace, multilateralism and inclusion.

Jacinda Ardern, Prime Minister of New Zealand, at the Armistice Day National Ceremony, 11 November 2018

We need confidence to shape the future successfully. But let’s not be naïve. We all need to work for it together, as there are many threats. Polarisation and unforgiveness are spreading not only in Europe, but all around the world.

©Andrew Brookes/AB Still Ltd

Superbug infections could cost the lives of around 2.4 million people in Europe, North America and Australia over the next 30 years unless more is done to stem antibiotic resistance. Three out of four deaths could be averted by spending US$2 per person a year on measures such as more prudent prescription of antibiotics, a new OECD report says. A five-pronged assault on antimicrobial resistance–better hygiene, ending the over-prescription of antibiotics, rapid testing for patients,

Soundbites

Alexander Van der Bellen, President of Austria, on the Austrian National Day, 26 October 2018 (our translation)

delays in prescribing antibiotics and mass media campaigns–could counter the threats.

The crisis barometer is signalling rain.

Headline, Világgazdaság, Hungary 5 December 2018 (our translation)

See www.oecd.org/health/

Tax revenues in advanced economies have continued to increase, with taxes on companies and personal consumption representing an increasing share of total

tax revenues, according to new OECD research. The OECD Revenue Statistics 2018 shows that the OECD average tax-to-GDP ratio rose slightly in 2017, to 34.2%, compared to 34.0% in 2016. The OECD

average is now higher than at any previous point, including its earlier peaks of 33.8% in 2000 and 33.6% in 2007.

Economy

area slowed for the fourth consecutive quarter, to 2.4%.

Real GDP growth in the OECD area slowed to 0.5% in the third quarter of 2018, compared with 0.7% in the previous quarter, according to provisional estimates. GDP growth slowed marginally in the US, to 0.9% from 1.0%, and in Italy, to 0.0% from 0.2%, and it also slowed in the EU and the euro area, to 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. GDP contracted in Japan and Germany, by 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. However, growth accelerated slightly in the UK, to 0.6% from 0.4%, and in and France, to 0.4%, from 0.2%.

Year-on-year GDP growth for the OECD

The OECD’s composite leading indicators (CLIs) continue to point to easing growth momentum in the OECD area as a whole.

By using data from the likes of order books, building permits and long-term interest rates, these leading indicators help anticipate trends and turning points in the economic cycle. Easing growth momentum remains the assessment for the UK, Canada and the euro area as a whole, with similar signs now also emerging in the US. In Japan, the indicators continue to point to stable growth momentum.

OECD area inflation picked up to 3.1% in October 2018, compared with 2.9% in September. Excluding food and energy, OECD inflation was stable at 2.3% in October.

See www.oecd.org/tax/

The OECD unemployment rate was stable at 5.2% in October 2018. In the OECD area, 33.2 million people were unemployed. Within the euro area, the unemployment rate was stable at 8.1% in October for the fourth consecutive month, but varying from a decline of 0.3 percentage point in Lithuania to a rise of 0.3 percentage point in Italy. Outside Europe, the unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage point in Canada, to 5.8%,

NEWS BRIEF

Country roundup

Mexico needs to give more priority to foreign bribery enforcement, having yet to prosecute a case involving the bribery of foreign public officials 19 years after ratifying the OECD Anti-Bribery Convention. www.oecd.org/mexico/ A steady economic expansion in Indonesia is boosting living standards, curbing poverty and offering millions of people greater access to public services.

Reforms will allow investment in infrastructure and increased spending on health and social services. www.oecd.org/indonesia/ Chile has stepped up its fight against foreign bribery in recent years but could do more to increase enforcement and compliance with the OECD Anti-Bribery Convention, according to a new report by the OECD Working Group on Bribery. www.oecd.org/chile/ Japan must improve job quality and further reform the mandatory retirement age to address upfront the challenges of its rapidly ageing and shrinking labour force. www.oecd.org/japan/ New Zealand has carried out major health and welfare reforms over the past decade but needs to do more to help people with mental health issues stay in work or find a job. www.oecd.org/newzealand/ Korea, to 3.9%, and Mexico, to 3.2%. It increased by 0.1 percentage point in Japan, to 2.4%, and was unchanged in the US at 3.7%.

International merchandise trade among G20 countries grew marginally in the third quarter of 2018, on the back of rising oil prices, with exports rising by 0.3% and imports by 0.7%, following minor contractions in the second quarter of 2018.

Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo, President of the Republic of Ghana, at the OECD International Economic Forum on Africa, Paris, 31 October 2018.

©OECD

Korea should reform its employment regulations and improve social protection in order to make work more rewarding for older workers and tackle old-age poverty. www.oecd.org/korea/

Access to healthcare has improved in the Asia Pacific region over the past decade but women in low-income households in rural areas still have difficulty accessing care due to distance and financial reasons. www.oecd.org/development/asia-pacific/ Spain has made a successful economic recovery, underpinned by strong employment growth, gains in competitiveness and favourable external and financial conditions. www.oecd.org/spain/ Emissions curbs set by the European Union’s Emissions Trading System, Europe’s main tool for reducing carbon emissions, have not hurt revenue, profits or employment at firms subject to the cap-and-trade programme over 2005-2014. www.oecd.org/eu/ Africa has sustained gains in domestic resource mobilisation made since 2000, as tax revenues remained stable in 2016, according to Revenue Statistics in Africa 2018. The report finds that the average tax-to-GDP ratio was 18.2% in 2016, which represents a strong improvement from 13.1% in 2000. www.oecd.org/africa/

Consumer prices, selected areas October 2018, % change on the same month of the previous year % OECD total 12.0 10.0 8.0

All items

6.0

Food

4.0

Energy

2.0 0.0

Other stories Improvements in the design of pension systems over the last decade in OECD countries have made them more financially sustainable, and governments should now focus on ensuring they provide people with an adequate retirement income.

See www.oecd.org/pensions/ Public climate finance from developed to developing countries totalled US$56.7 billion in 2017, up 17% from US$48.5 billion in 2016, according to new data compiled by the OECD. A new data series for 2013-2017 shows that public climate finance has risen by 44% from US$39.5 billion in 2013.

The year-on-year rise has been steady, aside from a small dip in 2015.

See www.oecd.org/environment/ Many countries have made important improvements in integrating immigrants and their children into the labour market and day-to-day life of their country.

However, many challenges remain and much of the potential that migrants bring with them remains unused, hampering both economic growth and social inclusion, according to a new joint OECD-EU report.

See www.oecd.org/migration/

Plus ça change…

Through past co-operation in a number of areas, particularly transport, water and energy, Southern African countries have started to capitalise on their interdependence and have developed a vision of the mutual benefits of closer co-operation, particularly through the Southern African Development Community (SADC).

“What future for the Sahel?”, by Anne de Lattre, in Issue No 153, August-September 1988

All items non-food, non-energy

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BLOGS

BlogServer Human rights is an integral part of responsible business conduct Christine Kaufman, incumbent Chair and Roel Nieuwenkamp, outgoing Chair of the OECD Working Party on Responsible Business Conduct

Human rights, the sometimes forgotten rights that we take for granted as we communicate freely with friends and family on the media of our choice, as we freely decide on our professional career or benefit from the right to equal treatment, did not even exist at the international level 70 years ago. This changed on 10 December 1948 when the UN General Assembly adopted one of its most important resolutions ever: the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR).

From OECD On the Level. More here: https://bit.ly/2G5a1u2

The big question for 2019: Can democracy be saved from datacracy?

Bhaskar Chakravorti, Dean, Global Business and Founding Executive Director, The Fletcher School, Tufts University

Gender equity starts at the dinner table David Beasley, Executive Director, World Food Programme

Imagine a family sitting down for a meal–a father, a mother who’s nursing a little baby, a school-aged boy and an adolescent girl.

Who has the most on their dinner plate? Maybe Dad, since he’s the biggest and has a physically demanding job. Then the boy–I had two of them and sometimes it was amazing how much they could eat. Then after that, the two slimmest: Mom and daughter, right?

From OECD Development Matters. More here: https://oe.cd/2tH

Why social and emotional skills matter more than ever Javier Suarez-Alvarez, OECD Directorate for Education and Skills

A mannequin dressed in a spacesuit is seated in the driver’s seat of an electric sports car. Within minutes, the car escapes Earth’s gravity, crosses the orbit of Mars, and becomes a satellite of the sun. It may sound like a scene from a sci-fi movie, but this actually happened earlier this year. And although it was little more than a publicity stunt, the event still underscores how fast our world is changing.

From OECD Education & Skills Today. More here: https://bit.ly/2z0zRZl

The output cost of the global financial crisis David Turner and Patrice Ollivaud, OECD Economics Department

Assessing the damage from the global financial crisis is not straightforward, even with the benefit of hindsight provided by ten years of history, because the counter-factual of what might have happened in its absence is unknowable. However, a simplistic, but commonly adopted approach of comparing the post-crisis path of GDP with the pre-crisis trend exaggerates the cost and can lead to misleading policy conclusions.

From OECD Ecoscope. More here: https://bit.ly/2FVLqXU

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While democracy has taken some body blows of late, it is clear that an invisible alternative regime has been on the rise. Welcome to datacracy: you are a participating citizen without even knowing it and you didn’t have to join a caravan or scale a border wall to get here–all you needed to do was join half the world’s inhabitants by going on the internet and leaving a digital trace.

From OECD Forum Network. More here: https://oe.cd/2tI

What’s the path to sustainable development?

Mario Pezzini, Director, OECD Development Centre, and Special Advisor to the OECD Secretary-General on Development

What’s the path to sustainable development? In this era of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)–when all countries face both new challenges and new opportunities for improving the lives of their citizens in inclusive, holistic and environmentally sustainable ways–the question remains as relevant as ever.

From OECD Development Matters. More here: https://oe.cd/2tJ

Are science policymakers ready to embrace the digital revolution?

Clinton Watson, Science and Innovation Counsellor China, Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, New Zealand

Policymakers in science and innovation are charged with designing and overseeing funding mechanisms that funnel billions of dollars of public money into universities, public research organisations, businesses and not-for-profit entities.

Yet despite the huge investments, the science-of-science policy has received almost no funding. Oftentimes, policymakers struggle to demonstrate real societal impacts from investments.

Arguably, they have paid more attention to ensuring science systems continue to receive adequate funding and respond to domestic demands.

From OECD Forum Network. More here: https://oe.cd/2tK These extracts from blogs appeared in Q4 2018 and courtesy of OECD Forum Network, OECD Insights, OECD Education & Skills Today, OECD Ecoscope, OECD On the Level, Wikigender, Wikiprogress and other content and social media platforms managed by the OECD.

ECONOMY

Growth has peaked: Challenges of engineering a soft landing Laurence Boone, OECD Chief Economist

tightly linked to the US and China.

Political and geopolitical uncertainty has increased in Europe and the Middle East.

ŠOECD

An accumulation of risks could create the conditions for a harder-than-expected landing. First, further trade tensions would take a toll on trade and GDP growth, generating even more uncertainty for business plans and investment.

Second, tightening financial conditions could accelerate capital outflows from emerging market economies and depress demand further. Third, a sharp slowdown in China would hit emerging market economies, but also advanced economies if the demand shock in China triggered a significant decline in global equity prices and higher global risk premia.

The global economy is navigating rough seas. Global GDP growth is strong but has peaked. In many countries, unemployment is well below pre-crisis levels, labour shortages are biting and inflation remains tepid. Yet, global trade and investment have been slowing on the back of increases in bilateral tariffs, while many emerging market economies are experiencing capital outflows and a weakening of their currencies. The global economy looks set for a soft landing, with global GDP growth projected to slow from 3.7% in 2018 to 3.5% in 2019-20. However, downside risks abound, and policymakers will have to steer their economies carefully towards sustainable, albeit slower, GDP growth.

Engineering soft landings has always been a delicate exercise and is especially challenging today. As central banks progressively, and appropriately, reduce their liquidity support, markets have started repricing risks as reflected by the return of volatility and the decline of some asset prices. Capital flows, which had fuelled the expansion of emerging market economies, have been reversing towards advanced economies and especially the US. Trade tensions have heightened uncertainty for businesses and risk disrupting global value chains and investment, especially in regions

Political tensions other than trade have also grown. In the Middle East and Venezuela, geopolitical and political challenges have translated into more volatile oil prices. In Europe, Brexit is an important source of political uncertainty.

It is imperative that the European Union and the UK manage to strike a deal that maintains the closest possible relationship between the parties. In some euro area countries, the exposure of banks to their government debt could weigh on credit growth if risk premia were to increase further, with dampening effects on consumption, investment, GDP growth, and ultimately jobs.

Against this backdrop, we urge policymakers to restore confidence in international dialogue and institutions.

This would help strengthen trade discussions in order to tackle critical new issues and to address concerns with the rules and processes of the existing trading system. Concrete action at the G20 level will send a positive signal and help demonstrate that countries can act in a co-ordinated and co-operative fashion, should growth slow more sharply than envisaged.

It is all the more important to co-operate now that policymakers have limited

margins for manoeuvre in case of an abrupt slowdown. In some countries, monetary policy is still very accommodative, while public and private debt-to-GDP ratios are historically high.

Fiscal stimulus will be scaled back, which is appropriate. But in the event of a downturn, governments should

Engineering soft landings has always been a delicate exercise and is especially challenging today leverage low interest rates to co-ordinate a fiscal stimulus. In this Economic Outlook, we report simulations showing that a co-ordinated fiscal stimulus at the global level would be an effective means of quickly responding to a sharper-thanexpected global slowdown.

The fragile environment heightens the importance of completing the European Monetary Union, as suggested in the latest OECD Economic Survey of the Euro Area. It is urgent for Europe to complete the banking union. The lack of progress has led to higher domestic sovereign debt holdings by banks in some countries, magnifying hazards and maintaining the redenomination risk that undermines confidence. Progress towards establishing a common fiscal capacity would help maintain confidence in the ability of the euro area to react to shocks and sustain growth.

The global recovery since the financial crisis has not led to tangible improvements in the standards of living of many people.

While absolute poverty has plummeted in a number of emerging market economies, the crisis exposed decades of widening well-being gaps between the higherskilled, mobile part of the population and a larger number of less mobile, often less-skilled people in many advanced economies. Income gaps pass from one generation to the next: one’s future prospects are framed by where one is born, educated and starts looking for a

OECD Observer No 316 Q4 2018

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Outlook summary

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OECD area, % change unless otherwise indicated 2017

2018

2019

Keeping you ahead of the policy

Real GDP growth, % challenges of our time. Since 1962.

World 3.6 3.7 3.5 G20 3.8 3.8 3.7 Return the order form on page 32 OECD 2.5 2.4 2.1 subscribe at US 2.2 2.9 2.7 www.oecdobserver.org/subscribe.html Euro area 2.5 1.9 1.8 or email us at observer@oecd.org Japan 1.7 0.9 1.0 Non-OECD 4.6 4.7 4.7 China 6.9 6.6 6.3 Output gap (% of potential GDP) -1.0 -0.6 -0.4 Unemployment rate (% of labour force) 5.8 5.3 5.1 Inflation 2.0 2.3 2.6 Fiscal balance (% of GDP) -2.3 -2.9 -3.1 World real trade growth 5.2 3.9 3.7

job. These entrenched inequalities threaten growth, intergenerational mobility, and fuel discontent with the integrated global economy, which has brought prosperity across large parts of the world.

The general slowdown in productivity growth in many economies constrains real wage growth. But even in highly productive firms, wage growth has been more sluggish than expected, a result in part of technology driving down investment prices. This can prompt substitution of labour by capital, particularly for low-skilled, high-routine jobs. As digitalisation deepens, the divide between high-skill, low-routine jobs and low-skill, high-routine work risks widening. In addition, slower business dynamics preserve firms which are less productive and accordingly are less able to increase wages. Together with declining redistribution, this trend risks fuelling inequalities.

Governments can do more to foster higher productivity and wages.

Strengthening product market competition would not only favour

8

http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933880014

wider diffusion of new technologies, thereby raising productivity growth, but also help transfer productivity gains to wages. Investment in skills can help workers seize the gains from technological progress as higher-skilled labour is less easily replaced by new technologies. Effective active labour market and skills training policies can help those at risk of being excluded from the labour market.

Certain policy decisions are exacerbating many of the headwinds faced by our economies. Better policies, built on greater trust and openness, are needed now more than ever in order to create jobs, sustain growth and raise living standards.

Originally published as the editorial of the OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2018 Issue 2.

References OECD (2018), OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2018 Issue 2, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/eco_outlook-v2018-2-en.

Podcast: Economic slowdown? Chief Economist Laurence Boone looks ahead, https://oe.cd/obs/2x1

No 313 Q1 2018

www.oecdobserver.o

rg

Women at woerrkgap Closing the gend From p11

p17 for inclusive growth?

SMEs: What policies balance sheets p7 The fine art of financial 40% p9 can help the bottom Inequality: How taxes n p24 is good protectio Why pricing disasters Green budgeting

p25

Liz Azoulay, a stevedore port p12 at Israel’s largest

ŠREUTERS/Amir Cohen

Source: OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2018 Issue 2, November 2018

ECONOMY

Cool generation

Video: Carbon price warning Governments need to raise carbon prices much faster if they are to slow the pace of climate change. The gap between actual carbon prices and real climate costs is still too wide. Watch our video at https://oe.cd/obs/2x2

Climate change appears to be gathering pace, with the four years since 2015 being the hottest on record. Of course, 2015 was also the year the Paris Climate Agreement was signed by 195 countries, with the goal of holding the rise in the global average temperature within a maximum of 2°C above preindustrial levels over the long term. But that goal is in peril, which means efforts to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions must be stepped up.

One area for action is electricity generation, which accounts for some 40% of emissions from the energy sector, itself accounting for some 68% of global greenhouse gas emissions. The trouble is, some two-thirds of electricity comes from fossil fuel sources and, according to a new OECD working paper, electricity generation infrastructure under construction and planned in the next five years is simply not in line with a low-carbon scenario. True, renewable sources are expanding, but so is coal-fired electricity.

Governments can and must do more to change this.

Globally, there are approximately 6,300 GW (gigawatt) of power capacity in operation, 1,200 GW currently under construction (to become operational in the next five years), with three countries– China, India and the United States–accounting for 72% of this. The numbers show that renewable energy technology is expanding rapidly: it represented only 34% of the installed capacity in 2017 yet accounts for 62% of the plants under construction (mostly from wind and solar power, with China being a major driver of this growth). In contrast, the development of new coal power plants is slowing: currently representing 31% of total installed generation capacity, coal power represents 23% of electricity capacity under construction.

While these results provide encouraging signs that the energy sector is being decarbonised, data suggest that coal will still be the main source of electricity output by 2022. To be in line with 2020-30 energy scenarios that provide pathways for reaching the Paris Agreement goal, global coal capacity should be decreased by 2% per year in the 10 years from 2020, rather than rise by 3% per year as it has done in the previous 10.

Meanwhile, renewable energy deployment, though going in the right direction, must be accelerated. Solar power, for instance,

is deployed widely, but still accounts for only 1% of electricity generation, the authors point out.

A number of changes need to take place in the electricity sector to meet the Paris Climate Agreement’s goals to combat global warming. Coal needs to be phased out rapidly, particularly in China, India and the US, by halting new construction and retiring existing ones; renewable energy technology needs to be more widely deployed; and investment in demand management needs ramping up. Government policy is key for encouraging these changes. But more than this, governments can take action as investors, not least by getting state-owned enterprises, which account for over half of electricity capacity, installed and under construction, to redirect electricity-related activities towards more sustainable sources of electricity.

In short, as this fact-packed working paper shows, decarbonising electricity will be the shock treatment needed for tackling climate change and making our planet cool again. Rory Clarke Reference and further reading Mirabile, Mariana and Jennifer Calder (2018), “Clean power for a cool planet: Electricity infrastructure plans and the Paris Agreement”, OECD Environment Working Papers, No 140, OECD Publishing, Paris. Available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/2dc84376-en For more on the 2015 Paris Agreement, see https://unfccc.int/ Share article at https://oe.cd/obs/2vv

Electricity breakdown

Global generation capacity in operation and under construction by 2022, by technology GW 7000

Coal

Gas

Nuclear

Oil

Renewable

6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0

In operation

Under construction

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Who we are •Korea's only independent economic think-tank •Devoted to the principles of free markets, free competition, free enterprise

What we do •In-depth research on corporate policies •Analysis of macroeconomic policies •Promotion of free markets •Education for market capitalism

SPOTLIGHT

DYNAMIC AFRICA

Africa’s dynamic development Mario Pezzini, Director of the OECD Development Centre and Special Advisor to the OECD Secretary-General on Development

The launch [in July 2018] in Addis Ababa of the new flagship joint report Africa’s Development Dynamics 2018 alongside the African Union Commission reflects a fundamental commitment to an ongoing conversation on Africa, with Africa and for Africa. Thus, we did more than unveil a report on paper about the challenges of growth, jobs and inequalities. What we are also doing is strengthening an inclusive platform for policy dialogue on how best to turn Africa’s own vision and strategy for its development as captured in the African Union’s ambitious Agenda 2063 into reality and practice.

And it is a platform in which we envision engaging with and involving more and more diverse actors to tap their expertise and add their perspectives to drafting future editions of our joint analysis.

Africa’s growth was the second highest in the world at 4.6% between 2000 and 2016.

Prospects for more resilient growth are fuelled by at least two key factors. One factor is the surge in private consumption, which has now reached 3.5 percentage

points of GDP annually over 2009 to 2016.

This is higher than Latin America and the Caribbean, and comparable to the level in China and other developing Asian countries. The emerging middle class is growing and expecting more; it increased from 108 million people in 1990 to 247 million in 2013, underpinned by rapid urban growth and better education.

The other factor is capital accumulation, which has quickly accelerated to an average of 6.6% between 2009 and 2016.

This is at a level similar to Asia, at about 7%, and largely overtaking the level in Latin America and the Caribbean of around 2%.

Despite these positive indicators, the drivers of long-term growth in Africa must be strengthened. Africa’s productivity remains too low by international standards, with labour productivity falling behind that of Asia in such sectors as agriculture, transport, financial activities, construction and manufacturing growth. Engaging in productive transformation–with different regions identifying complementary angles and advancing specialisation–remains a crucial and consensually identified target for the continent. Africa experienced virtually no growth in total factor productivity (TFP) between 2009 and 2016, whereas TFP contributed 1 percentage point to Asia’s annual growth. With business as usual, the share of vulnerable employment in Africa will remain at 66% until 2022–far from Agenda 2063’s target of 41% by 2023. Today, 282 million workers are vulnerably employed in Africa. Only 12% of Africa’s working-age women were in waged employment in 2016, compared to 22% in Asia and 33% in Latin America and the Caribbean. About 42% of Africa’s working youth live on less than US$1.90 a day. Overall, 36% of Africa’s population– about 400 million people–lived on US$1.90 a day or less between 2009 and 2016, compared to 49% in the 1990s. Yet, reducing inequalities is essential for lowering poverty. If Africa’s Gini coefficient was equal to that of developing Asia, then the continent’s level of growth from 1990

to 2016 would have lifted an additional 130 million people out of poverty.

Mobilising financial resources to invest in Africa’s productivity, particularly in landlocked and non-resource-rich countries, may be a way forward. On the one hand, total external inflows to Africa in the form of remittances, foreign direct investment, portfolio inflows and net official development assistance reached US$185 billion in 2016, about 8.8% of GDP. This level is significantly higher than the 4.5% average for Asia and the 6.9% average for Latin America and the Caribbean. Moreover, such important actors as the European Union have identified additional resources for private sector development. On the other hand, domestic resources reveal room for more action. Domestic savings amounted to US$422 billion annually over the period 2009-2016, which is 20% of the continent’s GDP. This is less than developing Asia at 27%, but better than the 18.5% of GDP in Latin America and the Caribbean. Government revenues make up 16.8% of Africa’s GDP, which is less than Latin America and the Caribbean at 17.7%, but more than developing Asia at 15%. Fiscal reforms are possible, and African countries are not condemned to poor fiscal revenues. Look at Tunisia’s tax-to-GDP ratio, for example, at 30.3%.

Overall, Morocco, South Africa and Tunisia have higher tax-to-GDP ratios than the Latin American and Caribbean average of 22.8% in 2015 or a country like Chile.

We know policies matter. Achieving the continent’s development goals in the face of challenges posed by growth, jobs and inequalities requires engaging in a constructive policy dialogue built on three key pillars: First, we must understand Africa is one and multiple at the same time. Africa is one continent composed of diverse regions and countries. So while we look at the continent as a whole, we cannot overlook the regional development dynamics in Southern Africa, Central Africa, East Africa,

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Africa’s integration: Groundbreaking but not so new North Africa and West Africa. Advancing overall integration means finding the right mix of specific policy recommendations at the continental, regional and national levels.

Second, we must understand that Africa is not isolated, but integrated in the global economy. Africa is one of the most integrated continents in the global economy. Its imports and exports of goods and services represented about 50% of its GDP in 2015-16. This is similar to Asia’s ratio and higher than the 44% in Latin America and the Caribbean. What is key is the type of integration in the global economy. Africa’s integration in the global economy opens many opportunities that, with the right policies, can upgrade value chains and have an impact on African growth, jobs and inequalities. However, exploiting those opportunities requires significantly improving integration within Africa.

And third, we must understand that data matters. Producing high-quality, up-todate, comparable and harmonised data is essential to monitor the implementation of Agenda 2063 and to inform policies.

Policies can be benchmarked by comparing African countries with other developing regions in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean and by exchanging on what does and does not work in the local African context. Other countries too have a lot to learn from African policy experiences, and evidence-based decisions can enrich South-South, North-South and South-North policy dialogues.

Let us build on this understanding and optimise the co-produced first edition of Africa’s Development Dynamics 2018 to steer ongoing dialogue and engagement on Africa, with Africa and for Africa towards a fair, inclusive and sustainable model of development for the continent.

Reference AUC/OECD (2018), Africa’s Development Dynamics 2018: Growth, Jobs and Inequalities, OECD Publishing, Paris/AUC, Addis Ababa, https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264302501-en Share article at https://oe.cd/2oZ

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Sarah Lawan and Rodrigo Deiana, OECD Development Centre

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SPOTLIGHT

DYNAMIC AFRICA

Kwame Nkrumah speaking at the inaugural ceremony of the Organisation of African Unity Conference in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in 1963 As early as 1963, in the midst of independence movements, Kwame Nkrumah urged: “Africa must unite or perish!” The first president of Ghana pronounced this injunction at the founding meeting of the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

The post-colonial thirst for “breaking with the old order and indigenising the direction of Africa’s economic development” led to the shaping of the African Economic Community (AEC), a pan-African single market.

Africa reclaimed its leadership and ownership with the goal of promoting a self-sustained and self-reliant development trajectory.

2018 witnessed an acceleration of integration efforts with the landmark agreement on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in Kigali on 21 March. So far, 49 African countries have signed the AfCFTA, which will be the world’s largest free trade area since the WTO’s creation. As the late Calestous Juma put it: “The continent’s regional integration is the most complex and elaborate effort of its kind ever mounted in human history.”

This historic agreement opens tremendous prospects for transformation by paving the

way for a single market of 1.2 billion people and over US$3 trillion in GDP. Deeper economic integration could still bring significant benefits to the continent.

Fully liberalising trade in goods could boost Africa’s GDP by 1% and increase total employment by 1.2%, according to UNCTAD. Intra-African trade could increase by 33%, halving the continent’s trade deficit.

Given the continental scope of the AfCFTA, do existing regional bodies still have a role to play?

Creating a new continental-level structure should not mean reinventing the wheel; precedents are many, with virtuous examples and homegrown experiences from which to draw. Africa is home to a complex puzzle of regional bodies and initiatives, each with their specificity but all aiming towards the continent’s integration. These bodies and initiatives cover multiple facets of regional co-operation to achieve multidimensional development targets.

The 1991 Abuja Treaty formalised and articulated the relationships between the AEC and Regional Economic Communities (RECs), sub-regional bodies composed of groupings of African countries. The

treaty rationalised the integration process, building on the RECs to establish the AEC through “the co-ordination and harmonisation of activities among the existing and future economic communities.”

Active in the areas of peace and security, development and governance, the RECs aim at a more integrated continent and Africa’s better integration in the world economy. These blocs range from free trade arrangements to common markets and monetary unions, such as the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC), the East African Community (EAC), and the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). Even though boosting intra-regional trade has been a longstanding priority across all RECs, the EAC is the only REC where trade costs have fallen, and SADC is the only REC where intra-regional trade reached over 5% of GDP after 10 years of free trade between its member countries.

In addition, the Africa Regional Integration Index shows that financial sector integration and free movement of people still lag behind.

Alternative dimensions of regional co-operation exist in the areas of infrastructure development and natural resource management. The “development corridor” approach seeks to overcome the lack of regional connective infrastructure and to allow local economies to reap the benefits of infrastructure development.

The Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) Corridor is a Kenyan infrastructure project aiming to open up the northern part of the country and to add 3% to Kenya’s GDP by 2020.

Other institutions attempt to co-ordinate the sharing and preservation of resources (e.g. freshwater, fisheries, hydroelectric production), which carry strategic and geopolitical consequences. For example, the Commission du Bassin du Lac Tchad (CBLT) was created to manage water resources, protect the lake’s ecosystem,

and promote regional integration, peace and security.

Africa’s integration as it stands today is heterogeneous, with a multitude of overlapping memberships. In fact, 40 countries are members of more than one REC. Regional bodies must avoid the pitfalls of adding a redundant layer of bureaucracy and fragmenting the continental integration agenda. Instead, by capitalising on their practical knowledge, such regional bodies can actually embody the pioneers of African unity under the aegis of the African Union. The regional scale may turn out to be instrumental to implement the AfCFTA and lay the ground for the AEC. Indeed, regional bodies have a part to play in Africa’s integration for the following reasons: • National governments in Africa are already accustomed to and actively participate in regional decision-making processes. This confers legitimacy to regional engagement at the political level with increasing awareness and adherence from the private sector and civil society.

• Regional organisations can share experiences and foster exchanges of know-how among policymakers and increase capacity and institutional memory. This hands-on experience is indispensable to sustain the progress towards continental integration.

• Regional entities cover a wide range of areas (e.g. environment, peace, infrastructure) that are complementary to the AfCFTA’s focus on trade. This multidimensional feature can help secure all aspects of sustainable development (including social and environmental) and achieve Agenda 2063 aspirations.

• A step-by-step approach to continental integration tailor-made by regions, with benchmarks and monitoring, could ensure more organic processes, such as harmonised policies and buy-in from the private sector and civil society. The

SPOTLIGHT

DYNAMIC AFRICA

regions can position themselves as “integration watchdogs” to ensure that all strata of the population share the gains from the AfCFTA. • Regional bodies can experiment regionally with continental solutions and allow officials to benefit from a “learning by doing” effect. “This learning opportunity often gets ignored by those seeking to assess the effectiveness of regional bodies.”

Africa’s development partners should acknowledge and support this renewed integration agenda and momentum. The intricacy of interactions between African countries along multiple dimensions might very well call into question the adequacy and relevance of solely bilateral co-operation agendas. Perhaps it is time to revisit approaches to engagement in light of the priorities Africans have set for themselves to meet the continentalwide promise of an integrated, peoplecentred, peaceful and prosperous Africa.

References Kouassi R.N. (2007), “The Itinerary of the African Integration Process: An Overview of the Historical Landmarks”, African Integration Review Volume 1, No 2, July 2007 Juma, Claestous and Francis Mangeni (2018), “African Regional Economic Integration: The Emergence, Evolution, and Impact of Institutional Innovation”, Harvard Kennedy School Faculty Research Working Paper Series, Discussion Paper 2018-01 UNCTAD (2018), African Continental Free Trade Area: Challenges and Opportunities of Tariff Reductions http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/ser-rp-2017d15_ en.pdf De Melo, Jaime, Meriem Nouar and Jean-Marc Solleder (2017), “Integration along the Abuja road map”, FERDI Working Paper No 191, July 2017, http://www.ferdi.fr/fr/node/3850.

LAPSSET Corridor Development Authority (2016), Brief on LAPSSET Corridor Project, July 2016, http://vision2030.go.ke/inc/uploads/2018/05/ LAPSSET-Project-Report-July-2016.pdf.

AUC/OECD (2018), Africa’s Development Dynamics 2018: Growth, Jobs and Inequalities, AUC, Addis Ababa/OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi org/10.1787/9789264302501-en.

Share article at https://oe.cd/2nV

OECD Observer No 316 Q4 2018

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SPOTLIGHT

DYNAMIC AFRICA

OECD Observer Roundtable on regional integration in Africa The International Economic Forum on Africa, which took place in Paris on 31 October 2018, is the leading Europe-based event devoted to the continent. As OECD officials, African policymakers and representatives from all sectors gathered to weigh in on the continent’s major transformations and discuss how better policies can further impact the region, we asked speakers the following question:

What policy initiatives would you prioritise to promote regional integration in Africa and what international co-operation initiatives would you encourage most?

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Yvonne Mburu, Founder and Chief Executive Officer, Nexakili

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I see three main areas for action.

First, set a common framework for educational policy, knowledge exchange and scientific diplomacy.

Success in building knowledge-driven economies will depend largely on Africa’s ability to produce scientific knowledge. The most optimistic reports today estimate the African contribution to the global scientific production at 2%. African countries must embark on a deliberate mission of converging their educational curricula and leveraging technology to accelerate knowledge production and circulation within the continent. The implementation of core curricula, for instance, would allow students from one country to continue graduate or post-graduate work in another country in a seamless way, and faculty to participate in joint teaching programmes and

franca. Persistent barriers to the free movement of people–a colonial vestige– must be eliminated to pave way for the social, cultural and economic ascendance of the continent.

fellowships. These exchanges would not only strengthen social and cultural ties, but also help build a pool of highly qualified personnel within the region.

Streamlining educational standards, quality and competencies fosters an increase in overall productivity and raises the global value of African knowledge.

Second, strengthen local supply chains and build regional markets for manufactured produce. Africa must move away from being primarily a supplier of raw materials to which others add value, towards boosting local manufacturing capacity, transforming raw materials, and developing efficient supply chains. Scaling the existing small, fragmented markets into common markets governed by regional alliances is paramount. This convergence will deliver cost savings and efficiency, allow countries to source local produce for regional and international markets, and deliver economic and social benefits across the continent.

Finally, defining a pan-African identity and sharing a common language is indispensable to regional integration.

Swahili, the most widely spoken African language, unites approximately 150 million people across seven countries.

Heavy preference should be given to the widespread expansion and adoption of Swahili as the African lingua

Visit www.nexakili.com

Promoting results-driven education Amel Karboul, CEO, Education Outcomes Fund for Africa and the Middle East

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Raise the global value of African knowledge

The learning crisis is a time bomb that could undermine the achievement of all of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, and demands urgent global action. By 2035, without purposeful work, over 1 billion young Africans could be wandering cities looking for jobs.

In response, the Education Commission and the Global Steering Group for Impact Investment have come together to create the Education Outcomes Fund for Africa and the Middle East (EOF). EOF aims to pool $1 billion in aid and philanthropic funds. It will partner with governments

OECD Observer Roundtable

EOF will pay almost entirely on the basis of the results achieved, ensuring that taxpayer-funded domestic resources, aid, and philanthropic funds are only used to pay for what works. Knowledgesharing among African governments about what works, at what price and the implementation of those best practices in new results-focused policies is a powerful driver of regional integration and development.

This is a game-changing way to finance results in education, as it aligns the whole system around a common set of outcomes, both on a country and a regional level. EOF empowers and supports NGOs to innovate, adapt, and find context-specific solutions.

And rather than being funded for emotional appeals about their impact, providers will be rewarded based on independently verified results. This radical transparency will ensure that EOF, policymakers and the donor community can systematically shift funds towards scaling programmes that demonstrate the best results and value for money.

SA continues to support the work of the UN Agencies such as the UNHCR, UNODC and IOM in pursuit of a just and peaceful world. And our membership of the BRICS enhances our market access and investment opportunities in emerging economies.

Meanwhile, as part of its digitalisation strategy, SA is deploying digital technologies in its border areas in order to facilitate ease of movement for travellers. The country has made great strides in making its national identity system secure using biometric-enabled digital platforms.

Finally, SA values its partnership with the OECD as it enhances its trade and investment opportunities.

The realisation of the regional integration aspirations is demonstrated by the recent adoption of three regional integration instruments by the member states of the African Union (AU): the AU Agenda 2063; the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA); and the AU Protocol on Free Movement of Persons.

Visit www.home-affairs.gov.za *Brazil, India, People’s Republic of China and South Africa

Liberalisation’s limits Mamadou Diallo, Deputy General Secretary, International Trade Union Confederation

South Africa (SA) supports the vision of an Africa where citizens can move freely across national borders, and where intra-African trade is facilitated to benefit its citizens. The regional integration and international co-operation agenda are promoted through the following policy initiatives in SA: First, SA has adopted a new white paper on international migration which is Afrocentric and focused on enabling economic development. The new policy is geared towards the promotion of trade, investment and tourism.

Second, SA has removed visa requirements for nationals from countries of the South African Development Community (SADC).

Visit www.educationoutcomesfundorg/

Third, SA is in the process of introducing special work and informal trader’s visas for SADC nationals.

Supporting a key aspiration of African countries

Fourth, we support the UniVisa for visitors from countries outside the region in order to promote regional tourism.

Malusi Gigaba, Minister of Home Affairs, South Africa

We are also implementing a long-term multiple entry visa (3-10 years) for business persons, academics and frequent

Regional integration (free movement of goods, services, people and capital

travellers in visa-requiring countries in Africa and BRICS member states.*

between countries) has been a key aspiration of African countries since the achievement of independence.

African countries have embraced regional Malusi Gigaba integration as an important component of their development strategies, primarily driven by the economic rational of overcoming the constraint of small and fractioned economies.

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The fund will seek to ensure that every child has an equal opportunity to learn and thrive, with a special focus on underserved populations, including the hardest-to-reach rural populations, girls, children with disabilities, and refugees. It will measure (and pay for) what matters– both core skills like literacy and numeracy, but also critical 21st century skills, such as socio-emotional skills, IT skills, and other broader fundamentals of a quality education. It will help close the persistent skills gap.

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across the MEA region to strengthen education systems, harnessing the capacity and capability of non-state actors to improve the effectiveness of expenditure and help deliver on the promise of quality education for all.

SPOTLIGHT

DYNAMIC AFRICA

Data show that due to previous instances of liberalisation, the share of manufacturing in Africa’s GDP fell from 15% in 1990 to 10.6% in 2015. For decades, Africa has been losing opportunities to industrialise, diversify its economy and eliminate poverty through decent work.

For instance, all regions in Africa are facing a food deficit, except that of the East Africa Community, which kept protection of its agro-food sectors in place, with high tariffs and other measures that have enabled the market to grow.

Currently, trade and industrial policy of African countries are driven by national goals. African leaders should correct this by launching regional industrial policy initiatives that promote linkages with

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SPOTLIGHT

DYNAMIC AFRICA OECD Observer Roundtable

regional economic sectors. To this end, African governments should reject the Economic Partnership Agreements with the EU, as the unions are asking, in order to preserve policy space. Unions also advise them to establish ambitious screening and performance requirements for all investment, including Chinese investment.

The negotiations for a Continental Free Trade Agreement (CFTA) are a precursor to a Continental Customs Union (CCU) by 2022 and the creation of an African Economic Community by 2028. We encourage these initiatives, but we also warn that there have not been proper impact assessments on different aspects of development, such as on workers’ incomes, the environment and industrialisation. African governments have not consulted with trade unions, women rights’ defenders, environmental conservationists or other civil society actors on these initiatives. And there is a danger that the CFTA would create a border-free area for non-African goods to circulate.

African countries should be launching a far-reaching initiative to electrify, build internet and other digital infrastructure, and keep African personal data in Africa in order to give an advantage to local start-ups and enterprises. Connections with the rest of the world should be agreed only after careful thinking.

Visit www.ituc-csi.org/ Visit www.comune.torino.it

A partner in all areas

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Stefano Manservisi, European Commission, DirectorGeneral for International Co-operation and Development

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In the years to come, Africa intends to go through three main structural changes: increase the added-value of what is produced, reduce dependency on fossil fuels and join the digital revolution.

African countries, united in the African Union (AU), have set out collectively their strategic benchmarks. The AU Agenda 2063, the Program for the Infrastructural Development of Africa (PIDA), the Action Plan for the Accelerated Industrial Development for Africa (AIDA), the Africa Renewable Energy Initiative (AREI) and the Policy and Regulation Initiative for Digital Africa (PRIDA) are all clear examples of Africa’s dynamism and a strong political momentum.

The EU is a partner for Africa in all of these areas.

The ambition to accelerate Africa’s regional integration is captured in the recent launch of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). It will boost intra-African trade, contribute to sustainable economic development and structural transformation, facilitate industrialisation through diversification and regional value chains, and boost agricultural production.

Ongoing regional economic integration, driven by the Regional Economic Communities, is an important building block in this process. The EU has been supporting this for some time and will continue to do so.

The EU does a lot to support progress on the AfCFTA, and we bring our own single market experience with us. We already

bring financial support to the table and we support the negotiations themselves via the African Union Commission (AUC).

Along with the AUC, we also work with international partners such as the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) and the International Trade Centre (ITC) to facilitate African efforts towards the ratification, implementation and monitoring of the AfCFTA. More precisely, the upcoming EU-supported actions will also contribute to developing national AfCFTA implementation strategies. The EU’s various beneficial trade regimes provide building blocks towards Africa’s continental integration.

The ultimate long-term goal would be to achieve a continent-to-continent free trade agreement.

The Africa-Europe Alliance for Sustainable Investment and Jobs, presented by European Commission President Juncker in his State of the Union address, will take our economic partnership to the next level, by focusing on four interconnected strands: supporting investment through de-risking, improving the business environment, supporting skills and education, and boosting trade and economic integration within Africa and between the EU and Africa.

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DYNAMIC AFRICA

It’s time to foster Africa’s science revolution

©Kristin Palitza/DPA/AFP

Thierry Zomahoun, President and CEO, African Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS), Founder and Chair, Next Einstein Forum (NEF)

Engineers prepare to launch a medical drone, Rwanda 2018 Accelerating the knowledge-led development of Africa through science-driven policy and investments is important for boosting long-term growth and well-being.

Africa is a continent with a growing consumer base, entrepreneurial ambitions and home-grown innovation. With more than 300 technology hubs spread across 93 of the continent’s cities, entrepreneurs are innovating in every sector from education and health to agriculture and energy. Africa is becoming a generator of knowledge, innovation, creativity and technology, rather than being simply an adapter of trends produced elsewhere in the world. There is no doubt that African government policy can accelerate this process. The knowledge-based development model is new territory for Africa. It should define our collective aims. Having a creative, skilled and educated young African population combined with the implementation of science and evidence-based panAfrican and national public policies and investments can lead to large-scale social transformation and improved well-being.

The knowledge-based development model in Africa has been accelerated by the arrival of western and Asian innovators and knowledge creators. These innovators have been attracted by Africa’s flexible regulatory environment. This has enabled Africa to welcome early versions of newly developed technology. Drone technology used for the delivery of medical goods as a transcendental solution to the medical infrastructure deficiency in Africa is a prime example.

This has demonstrated that knowledge and science-driven development is key to the following success equation: Innovation > job creation > socio-economic inclusion > progress of society > gains for the whole population of a country To fulfil the above equation for success, African governments must first take concrete, specific actions to produce and disseminate knowledge around the continent. Deliberate strategies should be centred on three main challenges: Firstly, how to improve countries’ regulatory frameworks to enable knowledge-led societies, most specifically

in the two policy areas of industry and science; secondly, how to foster the relevant skills and capacity for a scientific and creative culture to take root in Africa; and thirdly, how to design efficient partnerships and structured financing to build the first two pillars.

Take the low-carbon circular economy, for instance. In Africa, the rapid growth of the industrial economy brings with it an opportunity to leapfrog the classical linear economy and jump straight into more environmentally sensitive circular models, reaping the benefits of integrating social, environmental and economic factors into the balance. By looking at the environmental footprint of industrial processes from a life-cycle perspective, we have the opportunity not only to reduce their negative impacts, but to identify new opportunities for innovation and wealth creation. This can be done by using renewable materials and energy, designing and producing low-impact, repairable and upgradable products, and reusing constituent materials at the end of their life.

To support a rapid transition to the circular economy in Africa, policymakers, academia, the business community and civil society must work together to create an enabling environment for research and development towards a low-impact, low carbon economy. Ways to do this include using bio-based material and energy resources rather than petro-based ones; designing products composed of renewable resources, which minimise energy consumption; producing goods locally using local renewable resources; and supporting efforts to recover waste as a resource for new industrial processes, etc. In essence, this means focusing on the use of the renewable resources that surround us, and preventing them from going to waste.

In addition, African stakeholders need to focus on energy independence. The Fukushima nuclear catastrophe has been pivotal in driving the energy transition in Europe through the rapid development of renewable energy systems, a resource particularly abundant in Africa. The continent’s economic and social fabric

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DYNAMIC AFRICA

Infrastructure: We must find alternatives to state funding could be transformed in coming years.

Nevertheless, there are major challenges to be overcome before achieving both universal energy access and energy

Ibrahim Assane Mayaki, CEO, New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) Agency

Africa is becoming a generator of knowledge, innovation, creativity and technology

The preferred route to renewable energy storage for the continent should be the production of synthetic gaseous or liquid fuels, as opposed to batteries. Through our Next Einstein Forum Roundtables, we continue to investigate other innovation pathways to prosperity.

Besides its involvement in scientific and industrial policy, the African Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS) is active in many academic and research areas including climate change, financial and pure mathematics, big data and machine intelligence.

AIMS strongly believes that a culture of open innovation built on partnerships along the education value chain is key both for commercialising Africa’s expanding knowledge base and climbing the global value chain. This is where international co-operation could have long-term impact.

References Desjardins, Jeff (2014), “Africa’s Exploding Tech Startup Ecosystem”, in Visual Capitalist, April, see www.visualcapitalist.com/africa-exploding-tech-startupecosystem/ Visit the Next Einstein Forum at www.nef.org Share article at https://oe.cd/obs/3zx

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©Roberto Matchissa/AFP

independence. Despite rapid advances in the capture, storage and management of renewable energy, colossal investments are required to support infrastructures and systems that are both financially viable and technically feasible. This will necessitate strong political backing through incentives and regulation to support public and private investments, as well as partnerships to achieve technological advances. These are needed in energy storage, for example, to counter the intermittent nature of renewable energy.

A view of the newly inaugurated, Chinese-built, Maputo-Katembe bridge taken on 10 November 2018 in Maputo, Mozambique.

On 16 October 2018, the authorities of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) announced the signing of an Inga 3 project exclusive development agreement with two consortia (Chinese and Spanish). This is a milestone for Africa. After eight years of studies and discussions, this hydroelectric dam project on the Congo River will finally enter its operational phase.

Inga 3 is a project designed to lead to an extra production of 11,000 megawatts (MW) of clean renewable, permanently available energy that will benefit the entire power grid in the region. The benefits of this project will be felt as far as South Africa. The China Inga 3, a consortium including Chinese and European companies, plans to invest US$14 billion. If all goes well, Inga 3 will be the largest hydroelectric project ever built on the continent. It will also showcase opportunities offered by public

partnerships for infrastructure development in Africa, as well as regional integration.

Infrastructure deficit is one of the most serious problems our continent faces. It is most obvious in the energy sector. Although 145 million people on the African continent have been able to connect to electricity since the beginning of the millennium, 645 million Africans are still deprived of it. How can we expect to start a virtuous circle of industrialisation if the most basic prerequisite–access to affordable energy–is not fulfilled?

We estimate that the annual investment threshold for Africa’s infrastructure deficit is US$120 billion. As of now, annual investment stands at about only US$50 billion. The continent now devotes a little more than 4% of its GDP to infrastructure equipment. This is better than ten years ago when it dropped to

SPOTLIGHT

DYNAMIC AFRICA

This lack of infrastructure carries big costs. When economies are isolated, they become less attractive, since unified markets on a regional scale are difficult to create. Inadequate infrastructure increases production costs, weighs on business’s competitiveness and negatively impacts foreign direct investment. Still, Africa must create 450 million jobs over the next twenty years to absorb its population growth. World Bank studies have shown that infrastructure deficit costs the continent 2 points of annual growth and generates a 40% shortfall in competitiveness gains for its enterprises.

Having stated the fact, we need to think about solutions. Be it in energy or communication corridors, the regional dimension is essential and must receive the greatest attention. Infrastructure covering several countries in the same region is more attractive to investors (both public and private) because it allows the pooling of costs and promotes integration. In 2012, the African Union set up an African Infrastructure

Development Program (PIDA) managed jointly by the NEPAD Agency and the African Development Bank (AfDB).

Its roadmap focuses on structuring cross-border projects, numbering 51 programmes which are broken down into 433 individual projects spanning ICT, energy, water and transportation projects, for a total package of US$360 billion. They are the pivot of the continent’s real economic takeoff.

The approach chosen by PIDA is highly original in that it anchors the projects exclusively in public-private partnerships (PPP). Indeed, the real question is not whether to invest more, but rather, who should invest more? Again we say, “Africa must first rely on its own means and resources to carry out its development.”

But is this true in the infrastructure domain? The answer is “yes,” but with some reservations. Investment in infrastructure is an absolute necessity, but it must not be to the detriment of other equally important programmes such as investment in education, health or agriculture. Therefore, association with the private sector on the one hand, and international co-operation on the other hand, are credible alternatives to state funding. This is the solution that, as the NEPAD Agency, we never stop recommending, and this is the solution

DRC authorities have chosen to adopt with the Inga 3 project.

Therefore, the key issue lies in private sector participation in the major PIDA projects, in the promotion of requisite regional integration. In this regard, the NEPAD Agency launched the “5% Agenda” in 2017. This campaign aims to raise awareness and mobilise the African financial sector and encourage African insurance companies and pension funds to invest at least 5% of their investment portfolio to infrastructure. Currently the allocation is only 1.5%. The growth margins are considerable because the amount of assets under management held by African pension funds, insurance companies, and institutional investors stands at US$1.1 trillion. In addition to its exemplary nature, the “5% Agenda” realisation will act as a positive signal; not only will it reduce the perception of risk on the continent, it will also leverage the private sector and international partners’ participation in the financing of major African infrastructure. These are more than likely to spur regional integration.

Visit www.nepad.org/

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©Afolabi Sotunde/Reuters

2%. But it is still less than in China, where this proportion is up to 14%. There are also major differences between countries and the structure of their economies, depending on their exposure to commodity prices in particular.

Gleaming train station in Abuja, Nigeria.

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What hope for peace in Mali?

©Benny Jackson/Unsplash

Julia Wanjiru, Sahel and West Africa Club Secretariat (SWAC/OECD)

Young Malians look up “I want to reconcile hearts and minds… so that all the different people can play their part harmoniously in the national symphony.” So said Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta on being elected president of Mali in 2013, against a backdrop of violence and crisis. Now, five years later, with instability still an issue, can the recently re-elected President Keïta bring about the changes needed for a lasting peace?

Relaunching the 2015 peace accord is one challenge, and the cards are not stacked in the president’s favour in a country still heavily divided by conflict. Large swathes of the northern part of the country are still insecure, despite the presence of Malian, French and international troops, and the newly-created G5 Sahel Joint

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Force. Tensions reign among communities in central Mali and the reconciliation process is at a standstill. Meanwhile, low voter turnout (about 34% in the decisive second round of voting, well down compared to the 2013 level of 46%) clearly weakens the political credibility of any initiative, while controversy over the election result has not helped.

As in 2013, President Keïta (known locally as IBK) focused his campaign heavily on security. But the large majority of Malians are concerned about vital dayto-day issues like food security, good governance, access to health services and water, poverty alleviation and economic advancement, all areas in which they consider the government

has performed “fairly badly” or “very badly” (Afrobarometer poll of 4 July 2018). In addition, more progress is needed in reducing gender inequality and empowering women, and the implementation of basic social services, notably in health and education, is sorely needed.

Northern star Still, peace is clearly critical for progress, the question is how to achieve it. A focus on the north of the country is essential, to make it once again a central and shared space that is more than just the “north of Mali”. This, however, requires sustained political, economic and security co-operation across the Sahara.

The Malian government must speed up

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The northern regions of Gao, Kidal and Timbuktu, as well as the two nearly created regions of Ménaka and Taoudénit, account for two-thirds of the national territory and are home to 1.5 million people (8.8% of Mali’s population). The vast majority of the northern population is concentrated along the Niger Bend (Boucle du Niger). It would make sense to shift the policy emphasis to this river and valley area with an integrated plan for its management, preservation and

International development partners could play a key role in supporting many of these projects development, for example, by building the already fully-funded Taoussa dam near Gao, which is on hold because of security issues. Other projects that aim to improve urban planning, social services, agriculture, livestock, fisheries, not to mention job creation for young people in the region, are also at a standstill and should be unblocked.

For Mali, the Sahel Alliance offers a great opportunity to speed up achievements for those actually in need, particularly those living in the most vulnerable areas.

only to building lasting peace, but pave the way for his national and regional symphony as well.

While re-connecting the north is important, there is also the question of how the northern areas might contribute to Mali’s development and the SaharaSahel areas more generally. The aim should be to develop economic cooperation with North Africa, increase trade and interaction, and build a common future. Mali’s northern regions would then no longer be on the margins of African economic development, but play a strategic geographic and economic role as vital nodes in a vibrant regional network stretching between Lagos and Algiers. The important role that Mali’s northern areas can play in the regional development and stabilisation of the whole Sahara-Sahel area should not be underestimated by President Keïta.

By using his next term in office to develop an intense trans-Saharan co-operation with a view to massive long-term investment, IBK would contribute not

www.afrobarometer.org

References and further reading “Mali’s new President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita sworn in”, BBC report 2013, see www.bbc.com/news/worldafrica-23957259 Pietikainen, Anna (2013), “Sahel: the search for security”, in OECD Observer, Q3, http://oecdobserver.org/news/ fullstory.php/aid/4167/ Solheim, Erik (2015), “Mali: Why everyone should care about its future”, in OECD Observer, October , http:// oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/5170/Mali:_Why_ everyone_should_care_about_its_future.html OECD/SWAC(2015), « Les régions maliennes de Gao, Kidal et Tombouctou : perspectives nationales et régionales », Perspectives maliennes, octobre 2015, Paris, http://www.oecd.org/swac/publications/Les-regionsmaliennes-de-Gao-Kidal-et-Tombouctou.pdf OECD/SWAC (2014), An Atlas of the Sahara-Sahel: Geography, Economics and Security, West African Studies, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264222359-en UNDESA, UN World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, https://www.un.org/development/desa/ publications/world-population-prospects-the-2017revision.html Share this article at https://oe.cd/obs/2mr

Aid remains a vital part of Mali’s budget. Every year, Mali receives about US$1.3 billion in official development assistance (ODA) from abroad, which represents more than 40% of the total annual government budget. However, development partners have so far lacked the co-ordination and knowledge-sharing needed for effective interventions. The newly-launched Sahel Alliance, which aims to pool and co-ordinate partner commitments, could help solve this.

Over 500 projects and €6 billion of investments over the next five years will benefit Sahelian populations in the G5 Sahel countries (Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger, Mali, and Mauritania).

These interventions aim to transform the whole Sahel region, not just Mali, by 2022.

President Keïta at the OECD in 2015

OECD Observer No 316 Q4 2018

©Herve Cortinat/OECD

progress in implementing its ambitious integrated development plan for the country’s northern regions, without which there can be no lasting peace and any progress on improving livelihoods.

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How do you measure

a Better Life?

For nearly a decade, the OECD has been working to identify societal progress – ways that move us beyond GDP to examine the issues that impact people’s lives. The OECD’s Better Life Index is an interactive tool that invites the public to share their thoughts on what factors contribute to a better life and to compare well-being across different countries on a range of topics such as clean air, education, income and health.

Over five million visitors from around the world have used the Better Life Index and more than 90 000 people have created and shared their personal Better Life Index with the OECD. This feedback has allowed us to identify life satisfaction, education and health as top well-being priorities. What is most important to you?

Create and share your Better Life Index with us at: www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org

The OECD Better Life Index enables you to rate countries according to the importance you give 11 topics. Each petal of the flower represents one topic and the size of the petal the country’s rating for that topic.

Find out more about how life compares in OECD countries by ordering the book How’s Life? Measuring Well-Being. Available now on the OECD Online Bookshop: http://www.oecd.org/bookshop

SPOTLIGHT

DYNAMIC AFRICA

DEVELOPMENT

Development blogs

matters

https://oecd-development-matters.org/

How can the new African free trade agreement unlock Africa’s potential?

Visualising urbanisation: How the Africapolis platform sheds new light on urban dynamics in Africa

Landry Signé, David M. Rubenstein Fellow in the Global Economy and Development Program and the Africa Growth Initiative at the Brookings Institution

Lia Beyeler and Nisha Schumann, Sahel and West Africa Club Secretariat (SWAC/OECD)

Africa has an opportunity to show leadership on the world stage through strength in unity, as the rest of the world retreats from multilateralism and increases protectionism. For the first time in recent history, with the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), Africa could wholly embrace intra-African relations, global trade, structural transformation and sustainable development. But for the agreement to succeed, businesses, which make up the backbone of the deal, need to be aware of their potential gains and be actively involved in its implementation.

More here: https://oe.cd/2oU

It’s (literally) about time: Men as part of the solution to closing the care gap Ruti Levtov, PhD, Director of Research, Evaluation, and Learning at Promundo-US

In no country in the world do men and women spend an equal amount of time on care responsibilities, an inequality that restricts women’s participation and growth in the labour force, in political leadership and in other public spheres. It also limits the space for men to express their full humanity as nurturers, caregivers and equal partners at home. To achieve global development goals, to fulfill human rights and to enable all of us to live full lives, we need to urgently address this inequality.

Traditionally, the focus has been put on larger cities as opposed to smaller urban agglomerations. Yet, smaller agglomerations with populations between 10,000 and 100,000 inhabitants represent one-third of Africa’s overall urban population, accounting for more than 180 million people in 2015. Their significance is highlighted by the fact that many of the continent’s future cities are emerging through the fusion of smaller cities or through population densification in rural areas–trends that are not captured in official statistics and government data, which tend to focus on cities as political units with defined boundaries.

More here: https://oe.cd/2uP

Technological change raises the stakes for action to leave no one behind Achim Steiner, UNDP Administrator

The 2030 Agenda presents a historic opportunity to set the world on track to a sustainable future. In twelve years’ time, a litmus test for its success will be: have we made good on the promise to “leave no one behind”? The answer will depend, in some measure, on our responses to the fourth industrial revolution.

Can we leave no one behind in a world so unequal?

The speed and ubiquity of technological change offers unparalleled opportunities for sustainable development, but it also comes with the risk of rising inequalities within and between countries. It is up to policymakers to leverage this transformation for good, and to mitigate their risks.

Winnie Byanyima, Executive Director, Oxfam International

More here: https://oe.cd/2uN

More here: https://oe.cd/2uL

The 42 richest people now have the same wealth as the poorest 50%–3.7 billion people. Last year, the top 1% reaped 82% of all new wealth. That bottom half–who helped create the wealth– received nothing. The majority of the world have not been left behind, they are being deliberately held back to enable a fabulously rich and unaccountable elite to march away into the distance.

More here: https://oe.cd/2uJ

Equipping development co-operation to leave no one behind

Paving the way towards progress that counts Katja Iversen, President and CEO, Women Deliver

As a champion for gender equality, I have long known that girls and women are powerful agents of change and drivers of development. I see it every day, where even in the most impoverished communities and circumstances women get up, get dressed, and go out to fight for better lives for themselves, their children and their families.

Jorge Moreira da Silva, Director, OECD Development Co-operation Directorate

More here: https://oe.cd/2uH

By embracing the pledge in 2015 to leave no one behind, United Nations member states signed up to and entered a new era: one bound by the commitment to universal, equitable and sustainable development for all. Delivering on this agenda will require fundamental refocus and reform of systems, institutions and policies, from the global to the local levels.

From aid to global public investment: An evolution in international co-operation

More here: https://oe.cd/2uI

Jonathan Glennie, independent writer and researcher, and Gail Hurley, Policy Specialist on Development Finance at UNDP

It is time to bring aid to an end. Gradually, maybe, as a few “pockets of poverty” still persist. But this symbol of global collective action that has lasted seven decades will now, inevitably and as planned, be ended. That is the common view of almost everyone.

More here: https://oe.cd/2uM

These extracts appeared in Q4 2018 on the OECD Development Matters blog: https://oecd-development-matters.org

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Multilateralism and global challenges: “The work of the OECD is vital” Gérard Larcher, President of the French Senate

[…] Multilateralism is akin to democracy: it reins in the power wielded by the mighty. Just like bicameralism at the national level, that is to say a parliamentary system in which there are two chambers–a system to which we are most attached in France–multilateralism is a form of counterweight that serves to stabilise the international environment.

By contrast, what is bilateralism? It is often another name for the imposition of the will of the mighty on the weaker. Trade negotiations provide ample examples of this.

Multilateralism is currently under threat. And professing faith in multilateralism while loudly singing its praises is not enough to keep those threats at bay.

Multilateralism is under threat from certain states, which waver between protectionist withdrawal, aggressive nationalism and hegemonic aims harking back to imperialistic ambitions. But it is also being poisoned by parallel institutions set up by this or that power which, under a cloak of co-operation, intends simply to impose its will or restore a past empire. It is being weakened by the proliferation of ad hoc fora and meetings without any particular mandate recognised by the international community.

©RGA-REA

A flimsy kind of multilateralism, built on empty words and producing uncertain results, is tending to displace structured multilateralism based on dialogue between states and capable of adopting binding decisions and standards. […] The French Senate and the French nation, in all their political bodies, are proud to host the OECD in Paris. The presence of a multilateral organisation as eminent as yours is an asset for Paris and for France, as well as a showcase for the French language, which is an official working language of your organisation. […]

If we are here today it is not by chance.

Yesterday we commemorated the centenary of the Armistice of 11 November 1918. Many of your countries were represented.

Your secretary-general was present under the Arc de Triomphe. I am ever mindful of the tremendous upheavals wrought by the Great War, the first conflict to be called a World War, on the populations of most of your countries, on societies and mindsets, and also on geographical boundaries, especially in Europe.

Because the liberation of peoples went together with the emergence of the nation state. That is something we must never forget, before we start demonising it. […]

In the aftermath of the First World War, Marcel Proust quoted an old proverb when he wrote that “Peace nourishes, unrest consumes”.

Peace: this is the watchword of all those who believe in the virtues of multilateralism.

Let us state it clearly: there can be no effective multilateralism unless based on international organisations that bring states together.

This is why the work that you do at the OECD is so vital. In your reports, your surveys, you reveal the extent of the progress that can be achieved through a co-operative approach within the multilateral system: in the last sixty years, almost since the organisation was created, it has led to a significant improvement in general living standards, thanks to the opening of markets and, until today, to the banishing of the spectre of trade wars, a massive reduction in extreme poverty, and improvement in health reflected by rising life expectancies and the reduction in infant mortality.

Multilateralism delivers, especially when faced with supranational challenges.

The OECD stands for structured, effective multilateralism, […] the kind that we need to strengthen. The kind of multilateralism that can rouse and rally states to the standards set by your organisation, even beyond its circle of membership. It is a wonderfully powerful tool. […].

Address of the president of the French Senate, Gérard Larcher, at the meeting with the representatives of the OECD member countries and the OECD secretary-general, 12 November 2018 (originally in French, French Senate translation, OECD Observer edits).

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OECD Observer No 316 Q4 2018

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International co-operation video: Strengthening tax capacity for development The OECD-UNDP Tax Inspectors Without Borders programme sends experienced auditors to developing countries, where they work side-by-side with local officials on complex audits of multinational enterprises. The objective is to strengthen their ability to challenge complex tax avoidance schemes and raise much-needed revenues for government services.

Watch our video on the case of Senegal at https://bit.ly/2GJhPjN

©OECD

“At a time when multilateralism is contested, we reaffirm our commitment to the existing international institutions […] Working together multilaterally is not optional; it is the only answer”, French President Emmanuel Macron, UN Secretary-General António Guterres, WTO DirectorGeneral Roberto Azevêdo, UNESCO Director-General Audrey Azoulay, OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría, World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, and ILO Director-General Guy Ryder declared at the Paris Peace Forum, 11-13 November 2018. The forum, which is intended to become an annual event, provided an opportunity for world leaders to “walk the talk”, and demonstrate how they are building a more humane, transparent and responsive world for the common good. This message was at the core of the OECD secretary-

©Gonzalo Fuentes/Pool/AFP

Standing together for peace

French President Emmanuel Macron (left) and Angel Gurría, Secretary-General of the OECD, at the Paris Peace Forum, November 2018 general’s intervention with 50 heads of state and leaders on 11 November 2018.

See editorial, page 3, and at https://oe.cd/2tRX Learn more about the Paris Peace Forum at https://oe.cd/2uZ

Lies, damn statistics, and well-being The digital transformation, the changing role of governance, and the emergence of the private sector as a key actor in influencing well-being were some of the key issues of the 6th OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy, 27-29 November 2018, in Incheon, Korea. Data and statistics are becoming more important in the era of fake news and high emotion. Under the banner of “The Future of Well-being”, policymakers, academics, statisticians, and civil society representatives came together to discuss new ideas and approaches on how to measure well-being and put it at the heart of government decision-making.

Learn more about the OECD World Forum on Statistics at www.oecd-6wf.go.kr/eng/main.do Read OECD Chief Statistician Martine Durand’s article, “Figures and feelings both count, as a matter of fact”, in OECD Yearbook 2017, at https://oe.cd/2v6

Culture for local development

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Marghera look to culture as an energising source of development and well-being, the participants heard. Experts from Los Angeles to Lago, and Copenhagen to Canberra, as well as organisations such as UNESCO and the International Council of Museums (ICOM) showcased examples and swapped innovative ideas, while generally agreeing that policymakers should place more emphasis on culture as a driver of development.

For more on the Venice conference, see www.oecd.org/cfe/leed/venice-2018-conference-culture/

©Shutterstock

Cultural projects, such as building museums, theatres and art galleries, can stimulate local development and spur regional inclusion, not just via the projects themselves–though these can have a positive return on investment–but the spinoff effects they have on the likes of business suppliers, property values and visits, not to mention confidence and well-being. This was a key message at this kick-off global conference in Venice, 5-6 December, under the title of “Unleashing the transformative power of culture and creativity for local development.”

Venice’s iconic main island is a trove of art and architectural magnificence, but even people living in its more modest suburbs, such as Mestre with its new M9 digital museum (www.m9digital.it) or working in the large industrial port at

OECD.ORG

Recent speeches by Angel Gurría OECD Conference on Culture and Local Development Closing remarks delivered in Mestre, Italy, 7 December 2018

Ambassadors Mr Ulrich Lehner, Switzerland Mr Brian Pontifex, Australia

Unleashing the transformative power of culture and creativity for local development

Mr Jean-Joël Schittecatte, Belgium

Remarks delivered in Venice, Italy, 6 December 2018

Mr Erdem Başçi, Turkey

Mr Christopher Sharrock, United Kingdom Ms Ivita Burmistre, Latvia

©OECD/Julien Daniel

Mr Aleksander Surdej, Poland

Launch of the new Jobs Strategy

Mr Pekka Puustinen, Finland

Remarks delivered in Paris, France, 4 December 2018

Mr Dermot Nolan, Ireland

Launch of the OECD Pensions Outlook 2018

For a complete list of the speeches and statements, including those in French and other languages, go to: http://www.oecd.org/about/ secretary-general/

Remarks delivered in Paris, France, 4 December 2018 G20 Leaders’ Summit, Session 2: Building consensus Remarks delivered in Buenos Aires, Argentina, 30 November 2018

Mr Kristjan Andri Stéfansson, Iceland Mr Alessandro Busacca, Italy Mr Petr Gandalovič, Czech Republic Ms Irena Sodin, Slovenia Mr Hiroshi Oe, Japan Mr Alar Streimann, Estonia Ms Monica Aspe, Mexico Mr Martin Hanz, Germany Ms Martine Schommer, Luxembourg Ms Jane Coombs, New Zealand

Global Forum on Digital Security for Prosperity Closing remarks delivered in Paris, France, 14 December 2018 OECD-BIAC Forum on Health: Digital & Partnerships Remarks delivered in Paris, France, 14 December 2018 Making the most of digitalisation for inclusive and sustainable cities Remarks delivered in Katowice, Poland, 13 December 2018 Aligning development co-operation with the objectives of the Paris Agreement Remarks delivered in Katowice, Poland, 12 December 2018 OECD-UN Environment FI Event: Aligning finance with the goals of the Paris Agreement Remarks delivered in Katowice, Poland, 12 December 2018

G20 Leaders’ Summit, Session 1: Putting people first

Mr Bernardo Lucena, Portugal

Remarks delivered in Buenos Aires, Argentina, 30 November 2018

Ms Ingrid Brocková, Slovak Republic

Investor Forum: Scaling institutional investments for sustainable development Remarks delivered in Buenos Aires, Argentina, 29 November 2018

Ms Catherine Colonna, France Mr Felipe Morande, Chile Mr Manuel Escudero, Spain Mr Per Egil Selvaag, Norway Mr Guido Biessen, Netherlands Mr Carsten Staur, Denmark Ms Rania Antonopoulou, Greece

6th OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy

Ms Anna Brandt, Sweden

Remarks delivered in Incheon, Korea, 27 November 2018

Mr Thomas Schnöll, Austria

Mr Eli Emanuel Lev, Israel

Roundtable on Sustainable Business Conduct

—­— Mr Andrew Haviland, United States Chargé d’Affaires a.i.

Remarks delivered in Madrid, Spain, 23 November 2018

Mr Seong Ho Lee, Korea Chargé d’Affaires a.i.

Launch of the 2018 OECD Economic Survey of Spain Remarks delivered in Madrid, Spain, 22 November 2018 Launch of the OECD Economic Outlook Remarks delivered in Paris, France, 21 November 2018

International conference of the #StopCorruption association

OECD Eurasia Week 2018

Remarks delivered at SciencesPo, Paris, France, 11 December 2018

Remarks delivered in Paris, France, 21 November 2018

Ms Lina Ramanauskaite, Lithuania Chargée d’Affaires a.i.

Ms Sharon Armstrong, Canada Chargée d’Affaires a.i.

—­— European Union Mr Rupert Schlegelmilch —­— Hungary Pending information November 2018

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OECD.ORG

Calendar highlights Please note that many of the OECD meetings mentioned are not open to the public or the media and are listed as a guide only. All meetings are in Paris, France, unless otherwise stated. For a comprehensive list, see the OECD website at www.oecd.org/newsroom/upcomingevents OCTOBER 2-3

Conférence de Paris

4

Tax Inspectors Without Borders–Annual Report 2017-18

6-7

EduExpo, Mexico City, Mexico

9

Launch of Regions and Cities at a Glance, Brussels, Belgium

9-14 WB/IMF Annual Meetings, Bali, Indonesia 10

SME and Entrepreneurship Policy in Indonesia 2018, Bali, Indonesia

10

Meeting of the Global Parliamentary Network

22-24 Global Forum on the Circular Economy, Yokohama, Japan 22-24 International Anti-Corruption Conference, Denmark, Copenhagen 31

International Economic Forum on Africa

31- Global Perspectives Conference, Berlin, Nov 2 Germany

NOVEMBER 5-9

EU Vocational Skills Week, Vienna, Austria

11

Launch of Global Outlook on Financing for Sustainable Development

11-13 Paris Peace Forum 12-14 Internet Governance Forum 13-14 Fostering Women’s Economic Empowerment in MENA, Tunis, Tunisia 13-14 OECD Forum on Green Finance and Investment 14-16 Women’s Forum 15-16 Ibero-American Summit: A thriving, inclusive and sustainable Ibero-America, La Antigua, Guatemala 17-29 COP 14, Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt 19-20 Eurasia Week 21

Launch of the Economic Outlook

22

Launch of Health at a Glance: Europe, Brussels, Belgium

22

Launch of OECD Economic Survey: Spain 2018, Madrid, Spain

Launch of the OECD Pensions Outlook 2018

3

Launch of Health at a Glance: Asia/Pacific 2018

4

Launch of the OECD Jobs Strategy

6-7

OECD Conference on culture and local development, Venice, Italy

9

Launch of Settling in 2018: Indicators of Immigrant Integration

10 141st Trade Union Advisory Committee Plenary session 13-14 Global Forum on Digital Security and Prosperity 2019 JANUARY 15

Launch of OECD Economic Surveys: Denmark 2019

25

World Economic Forum, Davos, Switzerland

20-24 Second OECD meeting of Mining Regions and Cities, Darwin, Australia

31

Launch of OECD Economic Surveys: Hungary 2019, Budapest, Hungary

27-29 Green Growth and Sustainable Development Forum

FEBRUARY 5

Launch of OECD Economic Surveys: Slovak Republic 2019, Bratislava, Slovak Republic

6-8 Les journées de l’économie, Lyon, France

27-29 OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy, Incheon, Korea

7

Conference on Policy Responses to New Forms of Work

29-30 Global Forum on Competition

13-14 OECD Forum on Due Diligence in the Garment and Footwear Sector

8-9

Conference on Implications of the digital transformation for the business sector, London, United Kingdom

DECEMBER

5

Launch of ITF Transport Outlook 2019

2-14 OECD at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP24), Katowice, Poland

27

The Skills Summit, London, United Kingdom

27

OECD Competition Open Day 2019

OECD Forum on Due Diligence in the Garment and Footwear Sector “Measuring Impact” is the theme of the OECD Forum on Due Diligence in the Garment and Footwear Sector taking place on 13-14 February 2019 at the OECD in Paris. The garment and footwear sector is one of the largest consumer goods sectors in the world.

28

3

BOOKS OECD iLibrary

Tackle corruption to protect wildlife Illegal wildlife trade is one of the most profitable forms of illicit trade worldwide, a multibilliondollar international industry that has grown in sophistication and volume.

Estimates value the trade at somewhere between US$7–23 billion annually, making it a lucrative part of a wider environmental crime industry worth over US$175 billion.

Illegal wildlife trade of this scale could not take place without chains of corruption, beginning with the exploitation of poor rural communities in source and transit countries, and involving accomplices

domestically and internationally along a supply chain, making it hard to measure and act against.

This report details the findings of research conducted over 2017 into the corruption that facilitates illegal wildlife trade in Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia. All act as source and transit countries for a range of wildlife products, from ivory and rhino horn to pangolin scales and hippo teeth.

Institutional and governance weak spots, such as gaps in responsibility and weak jurisdiction, have allowed criminal networks to pay public officials and others to turn a blind eye, provide inside information or otherwise abuse their position. A lack of criminal enforcement measures and investigations has heightened the problem.

To stand any chance of combating illegal wildlife trade, corruption needs to be tackled head on. This involves donor agencies as well as law enforcement bodies, international organisations and NGOs working alongside wildlife management authorities.

The complex legal status of many wildlife products and the unclear status of many species also needs clearing up.

An electronic recordkeeping or a universal permit database would also help.

OECD (2018), Strengthening Governance and Reducing Corruption Risks to Tackle Illegal Wildlife Trade: Lessons from East and Southern Africa, OECD Publishing, Paris. https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264306509-en Share article at https://oe.cd/obs/2vs

No more “9 to 5” “Workin’ 9 to 5; What a way to make a living”, Dolly Parton sang in her classic hit.

The year was 1980, and Parton’s character in the eponymous film, 9 to 5, already pioneered numerous policies of the new world of work to come, such as flexible work hours and a job-sharing programme.

Some of these changes have since become widespread in certain countries and industries. And they affect social protection policies, too, as the OECD report The Future of Social Protection: What Works for Non-standard Workers? shows.

Most social protection systems were designed with the archetypical full-time, “9 to 5” employee in mind. But with

internet platform-based “gig” economy on the rise, coverage gaps become apparent. Across the OECD, on average, 16% of all workers are self-employed, and a further 13% of all employees are on temporary employment contracts.

Many of them earn low wages, and face frequent unemployment spells. None of this does their pension prospects any good either. Governments have realised this and launched reforms to improve the situation of such workers.

Take Italy, where self-employed workers who are economically dependent on a single or very few clients, so-called “para-subordinates”, made up around 16% of new workers in 2008. In effect, these self-employed workers are employees, but without receiving the same contract and benefits, yet many remain in these jobs for several years. Italian parasubordinate workers are well educated on average, with 47% having tertiary

education. Thanks to government reforms, the number of para-subordinate workers has declined since 2008. The strategy included gradual increases in contribution rates, abolition of certain types of contractual agreements, and reducing the advantage to employers of para-subordinate agreements.

In the new world of work, such new policies can help ensure better lives, even for workers whose contract does not say “9 to 5”.

OECD (2018), The Future of Social Protection: What Works for Non-standard Workers?, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264306943-en Share article at https://oe.cd/obs/2va

OECD Observer No 316 Q4 2018

29

BOOKS OECD iLibrary

New publications OECD Pensions Outlook 2018 The 2018 edition of the OECD Pensions Outlook examines how pension systems are adapting to improve retirement outcomes.

It focuses on designing funded pensions and assesses how different pension arrangements can be combined taking into account various policy objectives and risks involved in saving for retirement.

ISBN: 978-92-64-30540-3 December 2018, 256 pages €50.00 $60.00 £40.00 ¥6 500

The Future of Social Protection: What Works for Non-standard Workers?

Social protection systems are often still designed for the archetypical full-time dependent employee.

Work patterns deviating from this model–be it self-employment or online “gig work”–can lead to gaps in social protection coverage. Globalisation and digitalisation are likely to exacerbate this discrepancy as new technologies make it easier and cheaper to offer and find work online, and online work platforms have experienced spectacular growth in recent years.

ISBN: 978-92-64-30693-6 December 2018, 228 pages €55.00 $66.00 £44.00 ¥7 100

OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2018: Adapting to Technological and Societal Disruption The OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2018 is the twelfth edition in a series that biennially reviews key trends in science, technology and innovation policy in OECD countries and a number of major partner economies.

ISBN: 978-92-64-30756-8 January 2019 (forthcoming), 320 pages €90.00 $117.00 £74.00 ¥11 200

All publications are available to read and share at www.oecd-ilibrary.org Green Finance and Investment: Developing Robust Project Pipelines for Low-Carbon Infrastructure

This report aims to provide policymakers with a comprehensive examination of “project pipelines”, a common concept in infrastructure planning and investment discussions, and one which has become a focal point in countries’ efforts to implement their climate commitments.

ISBN: 978-92-64-30783-4 November 2018, 156 pages €30.00 $36.00 £24.00 ¥3 900

Skills on the Move: Migrants in the Survey of Adult Skills Migration has been at the centre of political debate across the OECD in recent years. Drawing on data from the OECD Survey of Adult Skills, this report provides new evidence on differences in migrants’ characteristics and contexts and considers how these relate to the skills migrants possess.

ISBN: 978-92-64-30734-6 December 2018, 224 pages €55.00 $66.00 £44.00 ¥7 100

Revenue Statistics in Asian and Pacific Economies The Revenue Statistics in Asian and Pacific Economies publication compiles comparable tax revenue statistics for Australia, the Cook Islands, Fiji, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, Samoa, Singapore, the Solomon Islands, Thailand and Tokelau and comparable non-tax revenue statistics for the Cook Islands, Papua New Guinea, Samoa and Tokelau.

ISBN: 978-92-64-30800-8 December 2018, 150 pages €35.00 $42.00 £28.00 ¥4 500

SMEs in Public Procurement: Practices and Strategies for Shared Benefits The relevance and economic implications of public procurement– which represents 12% of GDP and one-third of government expenditures in the OECD area–make it a powerful tool for improving public service delivery.

At the same time, governments are increasingly using their purchasing power to pursue strategic objectives in different policy areas such as sustainability, innovation or providing support to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

ISBN: 978-92-64-30746-9 December 2018, 250 pages €60.00 $72.00 £48.00 ¥7 800

Equity in Education: Breaking Down Barriers to Social Mobility In times of growing economic inequality, improving equity in education becomes more urgent. While some countries and economies that participate in the OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) have managed to build education systems where socio-economic status makes less of a difference to students’ learning and well-being, every country can do more.

ISBN: 978-92-64-05673-2 November 2018, 192 pages €45.00 $54.00 £36.00 ¥5 800

OECD Regions and Cities at a Glance 2018 This report looks at how regions and cities across the OECD are progressing towards stronger economies, higher quality of life for their citizens and more inclusive societies. This edition presents regional and metropolitan updates for more than 40 indicators to assess disparities within countries and their evolution since the turn of the new millennium.

ISBN: 978-92-64-30508-3 October 2018, 198 pages €40.00 $48.00 £32.00 ¥5 200

30

BOOKS OECD iLibrary

Focus on development Africa’s Development Dynamics 2018: Growth, Jobs and Inequalities What are the major economic and social trends in Africa?

What is Africa’s role in globalisation?

This new annual report presents an Africa open to the world and towards the future.

Africa’s Development Dynamics uses the lessons learned in the five African regions–Central, East, North, Southern and West Africa–to develop recommendations and share good practices.

ISBN: 978-92-64-30249-5 August 2018, 256 pages €50.00 $60.00 £40.00 ¥6 500

Revenue Statistics in Africa 2018 The Revenue Statistics in Africa publication compiles comparable tax revenue and nontax revenue statistics for 21 countries in Africa. The model is the OECD Revenue Statistics database which is a fundamental reference, backed by a well-established methodology, for OECD member countries.

ISBN: 978-92-64-30587-8 November 2018, 316 pages €80.00 $96.00 £64.00 ¥10 400

The Mediterranean Middle East and North Africa 2018: Interim Assessment of Key SME Reforms This report provides an in-depth analysis of major reforms undertaken between 2014 and 2018 to promote micro, small and medium-sized enterprise development in Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, the Palestinian Authority and Tunisia. The report focuses on five strategic areas for SME policymaking.

ISBN: 978-92-64-30415-4 October 2018, 168 pages €40.00 $48.00 £32.00 ¥5 200

All publications available at www.OECD-iLibrary.org

Strengthening Governance and Reducing Corruption Risks to Tackle Illegal Wildlife Trade: Lessons from East and Southern Africa In countries affected by the illegal wildlife trade, corruption is a key enabler and facilitator. Failure to address this corruption, and the institutional and governance gaps that allow it to take place, make tackling the illegal wildlife trade a significant challenge.

ISBN: 978-92-64-30649-3 December 2018, 108 pages €25.00 $30.00 £20.00 ¥3 200

Promoting the Digital Transformation of African PortugueseSpeaking Countries and Timor-Leste The public sectors of African Portuguesespeaking countries and Timor-Leste have made significant progress in mobilising digital technologies to promote internal efficiency, simplify government procedures and improve the delivery of public services. Nevertheless, fully harnessing these technologies to improve growth, opportunities for income and employment, and public service delivery requires a more profound shift from efficiency-driven to citizen-driven approaches.

ISBN: 978-92-64-30712-4 January 2019 (forthcoming), 138 pages, €35.00 $42.00 £28.00 ¥4 500

Illicit Financial Flows: The Economy of Illicit Trade in West Africa This report is a first step towards building a qualitative understanding of the way illicit or criminal activities interact with the economy, security and development of West African states. Going beyond a traditional analysis of illicit financial flows, the report examines the nature of thirteen overlapping, and oftentimes mutually reinforcing, criminal and illicit economies.

ISBN: 978-92-64-24520-4 March 2018, 294 pages €60.00 $72.00 £48.00 ¥7 800

OECD Economic Surveys: South Africa 2017 Over the last two decades, South Africa has accomplished enormous social progress by bringing access to key public services to millions of citizens. Nevertheless, growth has trended down markedly recently due to constraints on the supply side.

ISBN: 978-92-64-27913-1 August 2017, 156 pages €49.00 $59.00 £39.00 ¥6 300

Cross-border Co-operation and Policy Networks in West Africa This publication examines how policy actors involved in cross-border co-operation contribute to the regional integration process in West Africa. It uses a pioneering methodology, known as social network analysis, to visualise the formal and informal relationships between actors involved in cross-border policy networks, showing that borders have notable and diverse impacts on exchanges of information and the relative power of networks.

ISBN: 978-92-64-26576-9 February 2017, 224 pages €40.00 $48.00 £32.00 ¥5 200

Social Protection in East Africa: Harnessing the Future This strategic foresight report assesses the interaction between demographics, economic development, climate change and social protection in six countries in East Africa between now and 2065: Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia. The report combines population projections with trends in health, urbanisation, migration and climate change, and identifies the implications for economic development and poverty.

ISBN: 978-92-64-27421-1 May 2017, 116 pages €24.00 $29.00 £19.00 ¥3 100

OECD Observer No 316 Q4 2018

31

BOOKS OECD iLibrary

A history of Egypt’s social spring To understand the 2011 Egyptian Arab Spring, we need to view it as the culmination of a series of uprisings within the country’s long history. From this vantage point we can start to see the gradual acquisition of free will and social awareness.

Les Révoltés du Nil : Une Autre Histoire de l’Égypte Moderne (available in French only) reads like a detective novel. Remarkably, it is written from the point of view of the people, telling the turbulent story of Egypt since the end of the eighteenth century in a fascinating exposé of the birth of its people’s social awareness.

From the Pharaohs to the Sultans, submission to a power perceived as

celestial and therefore sacred was absolute. The individual simply did not exist. The first crack in the armour came with the insurrection against Napoleon.

This existential clash coincided with the discovery of a new model–European and secular.

But one occupying power gave way to another, from the short-lived return of the Ottomans and the Mamluks in 1801 to the period of British rule that followed the reinvention of the State of Egypt under Muhammad Ali and Isma’il Pasha.

Faced with the colonial order, the patriotic uprising of 1919 was a magical moment that belonged to the people, says Mahmoud Hussein. What would happen to the emergence of this newfound self-awareness? Turning the pages, we discover that it was soon to be snatched away again. From the arrival of Nasser in 1956 to the fall of Mubarak in

2011, we read the tumultuous story of a patriotic, then a social, conscience.

In an unprecedented feat, Mubarak’s regime was toppled–peacefully–in just three weeks. The people now view those who govern them as deconsecrated, mere administrative agents who must be accountable to them for their actions.

On Tahrir Square in Cairo, the incredible people’s uprising freed the collective conscience. “Everybody spoke in their own name to speak a universal truth.”

What happened to this collective wave of hope? This compelling work helps us decode the story.

Hussein, Mahmoud (2018), Les révoltés du Nil : Une autre histoire de l’Egypte moderne, Grasset, Paris

Share article at https://oe.cd/obs/2vz

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18 .5

17 .5

16 .7

14 .8 14 .3

15 .2 15 .1 14 .9

15 .7 15 .5 15 .4

17 .3 17 .0 17 .0 16 .9 16 .9

17 .7 17 .7 17 .7 17 .6 17 .3

17 .9 17 .9

18 .8 18 .6 18 .5 18 .5 18 .4 18 .3 18 .3 18 .3 18 .0

15

10

5

0

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Ne Fin th lan er d lan Fr ds an Ire ce l Po and rtu Es gal to n Sp ia Sw ain ed en

y ia K e ia rg 8 ia s ta ly rk ia ia ry p. p. d ia ia ay nd nd an an ium U reec ustr bou EU2 atv ypru Mal Ita ma ven roat nga . Re . Re olan lgar an rw rla ela L C n lo C u ak ch P u om rm ithu Belg G A em No itze Ic e B R H v ze De S G L x o C w l u S S L

http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933833920

EU

Source: OECD/EU (2018): Health at a Glance: Europe 2018

the fact that the costs of treating a physical illness tend to be higher if the patient also has a mental illness. Impacts on carers and % co-workers have not been included either.

14

There is a clear human and economic 12 case for promoting good mental health 10 and preventing mental illness, and several international strategies now address 8 mental health issues, including a 2015

Recommendation of the OECD Council on Integrated Mental Health, Skills and Work Policy.

OECD/EU (2018), Health at a Glance: Europe 2018. State of Health in the EU Cycle, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/ health_glance_eur-2018-en.

Share article at https://oe.cd/obs/2vu

6 4

EU

OE

7.5K 0

CD

Denial-of-Service attacks keep rising

2

5K 2.5K 0K 6 5 5 7 5 4 4 4 6 6 6 7 5 160 160 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q4 140 Q1 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 140 Q2 120 120 Source: OECD (2017) Enhancing the Role f Insurance in Cyber Risk Management 100 100 80 80 60 60 US$110 million. This was an especially Recommendation on Digital Security Risk 40 40

damaging DoS attack, and the number of 20 0 these harmful incidents is on the rise. After a peak of 4919 DoS attacks in the second quarter of 2016, the number fell to around 3164 in the first quarter of 2017, but rose again in the second quarter of 2017 to 4051.

Insurance can help companies be more resilient to cyber risks but there are challenges that need to be overcome.

Governments should also support initiatives aimed at sharing knowledge and expertise, as set out in the OECD

Management 20

for Economic and Social 0 Prosperity.

When a DoS attack happens, every minute counts–we need responses to restore service now.

20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16

Cybercriminals bombard servers with traffic to overburden websites. These “denial-of-service” attacks (DoS) affect firms of all sizes. In October 2016, a network of internet-connected devices attacked the servers of Dyn, a provider of domain name system services. It temporarily shut down several major websites in the US and Europe, including those run by television channel CNN, The Guardian newspaper, and social media giant Twitter. While the cyberattack was neutralised in just over two hours, it caused business losses of an estimated

Others

20 05

“Sorry, our website is temporarily unavailable.” While this message may cause you some inconvenience when surfing the web, it’s costly for companies.

For over 50% of firms, the unavailability of their sites can cost as much as US$1,000 per minute. And technical shortcomings are not the only reason websites go down– targeted cyberattacks are too.

Bipolar disorders and schizophrenia

Alcohol and drug use disorders

Figure at top of each column = % total

20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16

The rising cost of cyber attacks

Depressive disorders

Anxiety disorders % 20

R JP N HU N PO L SV K KO R US A CH L CZ E IS R NO SV R N LU CA X N LT U NZ L ES T CH E IT A LV A GB R DN K NL D AU S PR T AU T SW E BE L FR A DE U ES P IR L FI N

Such problems come at a high personal and social cost. Across EU countries, over 84,000 people died due to mental health problems or by suicide in 2015. Add to this people with mental health problems who die prematurely from physical causes, such as untreated chronic diseases. The overall costs related to mental ill-health in the EU-28 are estimated to have exceeded 4% of GDP, or more than €600 billion, in 2015. This includes both direct spending on health systems and social security programmes, and indirect costs related to the likes of lower employment and lower productivity. These are also conservative estimates, as they do not take into account social assistance or work-injury benefits, or

More than one in six people in EU countries have a mental health problem

TU

Mental health problems affect about 84 million people in the EU, according to the latest estimates from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. That’s more than one in six people facing problems that range from anxiety to depression to drug and alcohol addiction, as well as severe mental illnesses like bipolar or schizophrenic disorders.

20 05 20 06

Mental illness in Europe

OECD (2018), The cyber insurance market: Responding to a risk with few boundaries, www.oecd.org/finance/insurance/Thecyber-insurance-market-responding-to-arisk-with-few-boundaries.pdf Share article at https://oe.cd/2h4

OECD Observer No 316 Q4 2018

33

DATABANK % CHANGE FROM: PREVIOUS PERIOD

34

LEVEL:

PREVIOUS YEAR

CURRENT PERIOD

SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR

Australia

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 0.3 2.8 Q3-2018 -0.7 2.7 Q3-2018 0.4 1.9

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 -7.8 -10.5 Q3-2018 5.2 5.5 Q4-2018 2.0 1.7

Austria

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 0.3 2.4 Q3-2018 -0.4 3.4 Q4-2018 1.0 2.1

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 3.2 2.5 Q3-2018 4.9 5.4 Q4-2018 -0.3 -0.3

Belgium

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 0.3 1.6 Q3-2018 0.6 -0.7 Q4-2018 0.8 2.6

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 -0.4 1.9 Q3-2018 5.7 7.1 Q4-2018 -0.3 -0.3

Canada

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 0.5 2.1 Q2-2018 1.5 3.5 Q4-2018 -0.3 2.0

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 -7.9 -13.4 Q4-2018 5.7 6.0 Q4-2018 2.1 1.3

Chile

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 0.3 2.8 Q3-2018 -1.4 -1.6 Q4-2018 0.6 2.8

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 -2.7 -0.4 Q3-2018 6.9 6.5 Q3-2018 2.6 2.5

Czech

Republic

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 0.6 2.4 Q3-2018 0.9 3.8 Q4-2018 0.2 2.1

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 -0.3 0.2 Q3-2018 2.3 2.7 Q4-2018 1.9 0.7

Denmark

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 0.7 2.3 Q3-2018 1.5 2.2 Q4-2018 -0.3 0.8

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 6.4 5.7 Q3-2018 4.8 5.7 Q4-2018 -0.3 -0.3

Estonia

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 0.4 3.9 Q3-2018 -1.0 4.2 Q4-2018 0.3 3.7

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 -0.1 0.2 Q3-2018 5.5 5.8 Q4-2018 -0.3 -0.3

Finland

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 0.4 2.5 Q3-2018 0.4 3.6 Q4-2018 0.4 1.3

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 -1.9 -0.7 Q3-2018 7.3 8.5 Q4-2018 -0.3 -0.3

France

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 0.3 1.4 Q3-2018 0.7 0.8 Q4-2018 0.0 1.9

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 -4.2 0.9 Q3-2018 9.0 9.5 Q4-2018 -0.3 -0.3

Germany

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 -0.2 1.2 Q3-2018 -1.6 -0.2 Q4-2018 0.5 2.2

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 66.2 77.9 Q3-2018 3.4 3.7 Q4-2018 -0.3 -0.3

Greece

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 1.0 2.2 Q3-2018 1.6 1.8 Q4-2018 1.0 1.1

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 -2.5 -0.8 Q3-2018 18.9 20.8 Q4-2018 -0.3 -0.3

Hungary

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 1.3 5.2 Q3-2018 -0.3 3.6 Q4-2018 0.4 3.2

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 -0.6 0.6 Q3-2018 3.7 4.1 Q4-2018 0.1 0.1

Iceland

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 0.0 2.6 Q4-2017 1.7 10.2 Q4-2018 1.2 3.3

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 0.2 0.1 Q3-2018 2.7 2.7 Q4-2018 4.9 4.7

Ireland

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 0.9 5.0 Q3-2018 5.0 5.6 Q4-2018 -0.6 0.7

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 6.6 12.7 Q4-2018 5.3 6.4 Q4-2018 -0.3 -0.3

Israel

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 0.6 2.9 Q3-2018 2.1 5.3 Q4-2018 0.1 1.1

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 1.8 2.4 Q3-2018 4.1 4.1 Q4-2018 0.2 0.1

Italy

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 -0.1 0.7 Q3-2018 -0.1 -0.1 Q4-2018 -0.4 1.4

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 11.4 13.8 Q3-2018 10.3 11.3 Q4-2018 -0.3 -0.3

Japan

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 -0.6 0.1 Q2-2018 1.2 1.9 Q4-2018 0.3 0.9

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 38.1 52.3 Q3-2018 2.4 2.8 Q3-2018 0.1 0.1

Korea

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 0.6 2.0 Q3-2018 0.5 1.2 Q4-2018 0.0 1.8

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 25.1 21.8 Q4-2018 3.8 3.7 Q4-2018 1.8 1.5

Latvia

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 1.7 5.3 Q3-2018 2.2 2.3 Q4-2018 0.9 2.9

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 -0.4 -0.1 Q3-2018 7.1 8.7 Q4-2018 -0.3 -0.3

Lithuania

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 -0.3 2.9 Q3-2018 3.4 2.2 Q4-2018 1.1 2.5

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 -0.5 -0.1 Q3-2018 6.4 6.9 Q4-2018 -0.3 -0.3

Luxembourg

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 0.6 3.1 Q3-2018 0.6 -1.0 Q4-2018 0.6 2.0

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 0.4 -0.5 Q3-2018 5.3 5.5 Q4-2018 -0.3 -0.3

Mexico

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 0.8 2.6

.. ..

Q4-2018 1.8 4.8

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 -6.6 -5.8 Q3-2018 3.3 3.3 Q4-2018 8.3 7.5

DATABANK % CHANGE FROM: PREVIOUS PERIOD

LEVEL:

PREVIOUS YEAR

CURRENT PERIOD

SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR

Netherlands

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 0.2 2.3 Q3-2018 -1.8 -3.4 Q4-2018 -0.1 2.0

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 26.1 23.2 Q3-2018 3.8 4.7 Q4-2018 -0.3 -0.3

New Zealand

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 0.5 2.7 Q3-2018 -0.5 0.1 Q3-2018 0.9 1.9

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 -1.7 -1.4 Q3-2018 3.9 4.7 Q4-2018 2.0 1.9

Norway

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 0.6 1.6 Q3-2018 1.2 1.0 Q4-2018 0.4 3.4

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 13.2 5.5 Q3-2018 4.0 4.1 Q4-2018 1.2 0.8

Poland

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 1.7 5.7 Q3-2018 0.5 6.0 Q4-2018 0.1 1.4

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 -2.5 0.2 Q3-2018 3.8 4.8 Q4-2018 1.7 1.7

Portugal

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 0.3 2.1 Q3-2018 2.1 -1.8 Q4-2018 0.2 0.8

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 -0.3 0.3 Q3-2018 6.8 8.7 Q4-2018 -0.3 -0.3

Slovak

Republic

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 1.1 4.5 Q3-2018 0.0 1.8 Q3-2018 0.1 2.7

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 -0.3 -0.2 Q3-2018 6.3 7.9 Q4-2018 -0.3 -0.3

Slovenia

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 1.3 5.0 Q3-2018 0.2 4.0 Q4-2018 0.5 1.9

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 1.0 0.9 Q3-2018 5.2 6.6 Q4-2018 -0.3 -0.3

Spain

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 0.6 2.4 Q3-2018 0.1 0.7 Q4-2018 0.9 1.7

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 1.8 6.0 Q3-2018 15.0 16.9 Q4-2018 -0.3 -0.3

Sweden

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 -0.2 1.7 Q3-2018 -0.7 1.7 Q4-2018 0.2 2.1

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 3.4 4.1 Q3-2018 6.5 6.7 Q4-2018 -0.7 -0.7

Switzerland

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 -0.2 2.2

.. ..

Q4-2018 0.0 0.9

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 17.1 9.8 Q3-2018 4.3 4.8 Q4-2018 -0.7 -0.7

Turkey

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 -1.1 2.4 Q3-2018 -0.3 1.4 Q4-2018 6.5 22.4

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 -2.9 -14.3 Q3-2018 11.2 10.7

.. ..

United

Kingdom

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 0.6 1.5 Q3-2018 0.6 0.7 Q4-2018 0.6 2.1

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 -34.6 -21.2 Q3-2018 4.1 4.2 Q4-2018 0.8 0.4

United

States

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 0.8 3.0 Q3-2018 1.2 5.0 Q4-2018 -0.1 2.2

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 -124.8 -103.4 Q4-2018 3.8 4.1 Q4-2018 2.5 1.4

European

Union

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 0.3 1.8 Q3-2018 0.1 1.1 Q4-2018 0.0 2.0

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 45.0 71.0 Q3-2018 6.8 7.6

.. ..

Euro area

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 0.2 1.6 Q3-2018 -0.1 0.7 Q4-2018 0.5 1.9

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 88.7 126.9 Q3-2018 8.0 9.0 Q4-2018 -0.3 -0.3

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 0.8 1.3 Q3-2018 2.7 1.8 Q4-2018 0.6 4.1

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 -6.6 -6.2

.. ..

.. ..

1 China Gross domestic product

Industrial production Consumer price index

.. ..

.. ..

Q4-2018 0.0 2.2

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 13.9 25.5

.. ..

.. ..

1 India

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 1.5 7.2 Q3-2018 1.3 5.3 Q3-2018 4.0 5.6

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 -17.6 -5.4

.. ..

Q4-2018 6.8 6.1

1Indonesia

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 1.3 5.2

.. ..

Q4-2018 0.5 3.2

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q3-2018 -9.4 -4.3

.. ..

Q3-2018 6.1 6.5

Russian

Federation

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 0.3 1.4 Q3-2018 0.3 2.7 Q4-2018 1.1 3.9

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q2-2018 23.3 5.1

.. ..

Q3-2018 7.6 8.7

1 South

Africa

Gross domestic product Industrial production Consumer price index

Q3-2018 0.6 0.6

.. ..

Q3-2018 1.2 4.9

Current balance Unemployment rate Interest rate

Q2-2018 -3.3 -1.9

.. ..

Q4-2018 7.3 7.4

Non-members 1

Brazil

Gross domestic product: Volume series; seasonally adjusted. Leading indicators: A composite indicator based on other indicators of economic activity, which signals cyclical movements in industrial production from six to nine months in advance. Consumer price index: Measures changes in average retail prices of a fixed basket of goods and services. Current balance: Billion US$; seasonally adjusted. Unemployment rate: % of civilian labour force, standardised unemployment rate; national definitions for Iceland, Mexico and Turkey; seasonally adjusted apart from Turkey. Interest rate: Three months.

Current balance data are reported according to the BPM6 classification.

..=not available, 1 Key Partners.

Source: Main Economic Indicators.

December 2018.

OECD Observer No 316 Q4 2018

35

0.

2

Average annual growth 2012-16, in %

70 60 50 5.2 4.

0 10 .6 2.

1 -4 .0 3.

9 13 .4

40

30 .2

DATABANK

3.

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Arrivals in 2016, in millions

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1 6.

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7 7.6 6.

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Taxes for development

Tax revenues in Africa

Tax-to-GDP ratios as % of GDP, 2016

“Money makes the world go round.” So goes the line in the musical, Cabaret.

But probably not even lyricist Fred Ebb, who wrote those famous words, knew how true it is that we need money to achieve the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to keep the world, or rather, the planet, going round and round.

% 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5

According to the OECD’s Revenue Statistics in Africa 2018 report, more financing from domestic resources will be necessary for countries to get there.

1. The tax-to-GDP ratio should be interpreted with caution as it includes payments made by South Africa to the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) pool

of the countries had a ratio between 13.0% and 20.0%, and only six countries– Mauritius, Morocco, Senegal, South Africa, Togo and Tunisia–had tax ratios greater than 20% in 2016. Despite a lagging tax-to-GDP ratio compared to the OECD and Latin American averages, the good news is that tax revenues have increased sharply since 2000 in all countries in the report. Even during the slowdown in

OECD Observer Crossword 3

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2. Previously Swaziland.

Source: OECD/ATAF/AUC (2018), Revenue Statistics in Africa 2018

More specifically, tax-to-GDP ratios ranged from 7.6% in the Democratic Republic of the Congo to 29.4% in Tunisia. Two-thirds

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A common indicator of a country’s capacity to finance its development is its tax-to-GDP ratio, that is, the amount of tax revenues it generates expressed as a proportion of GDP. The average tax-to-GDP ratio in the 21 African countries* featured in Revenue Statistics in Africa 2018 was 18.2% in 2016. By comparison, the average tax-to-GDP ratio in the Latin America and Caribbean region was 22.7% and 34.0% in the OECD area in the same year.

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economic growth from 2015 to 2016, the average tax-to-GDP ratio of the 21 African countries remained unchanged. *The 21 African countries featured in the publication are Botswana, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Cameroon, the Republic of the Congo, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Eswatini, Ghana, Kenya, Mali, Mauritius, Morocco, Niger, Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa, Togo, Tunisia and Uganda.

Share article at https://oe.cd/obs/2rb

Try it online at www.oecdobserver.org/crossword

Across 1 Winners of the 2018 World Cup 4 Vehicle that carries presents from Santa 8 Number of OECD countries expected 2018, once Columbia and Lithuania have joined 10 Yes vote on the US senate floor 11 Traditionally bells ___ ___ the New Year (2 words) 14 __ Monde 15 “High” time 17 Touring vehicles, for short 18 Greenhouse ___ 21 End of year month, for short 23 We all make them for the New Year 26 Eleven for Caesar 27 2018 location for G20 summit

Down 1 With a new year ahead, we like to look forward to a better one 2 President Macron of France was born here 3 Budget reduction 5 The holiday season is time to wish joy and ___ and peace 6 One of Santa’s fabled reindeer 7 OECD partner in Africa, abbr.

9 Watching closely 12 Engage 13 Negative votes 16 Amazon gadget that talks to you 19 Decorate, as a Christmas tree perhaps 20 Washington DC politician title, for short 22 Community supported agriculture, for short 24 Elton John or Paul McCartney title 25 Ancient Egyptian king who is coming to Paris

Myles Mellor is one of the top crossword writers in the world and has been producing them for the OECD Observer since 2013. You can try them online and on your mobile phone at www.oecdobserver.org/crossword. Subscribe to Myles’ crosswords at www.ilovecrosswords.com

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