2023 ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL
JUNE 2023 Building a stronger and more sustainable economy oe.cd/portugal
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Portugal rebounded strongly from the pandemic
GDP per capita, volume, index 2000Q1=100
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Source: OECD Economic Outlook 113 database.
2 0 1 3 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 0 2 3 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 Portugal Germany Italy Spain
Headline inflation appears to have peaked but remains high
Shaded area = OECD projections
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Source: OECD Economic Outlook 113 database. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Headline inflation Core inflation
in Portugal, year-on-year, harmonised definition, %
Inflation
Public
measures cushioned the cost-of-living shock but should be phased out
Announced support measures to households and firms against rising prices, % of GDP
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Source: OECD 2023 Economic Survey of Portugal. 2022 2023 One-off cash payment to households 0.9 0.2 Reduced energy taxes 0.6 0.1 Extraordinary electricity and gas support for firms 1.3 Increase in pension and public wages 1.1 Other measures 0.4 1.0 Total measures 1.9 3.7
Exports of services have recovered sharply
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Economic
113
Exports, volume, index 2013Q1=100 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 Exports of goods, volume Exports of services, volume
Source: OECD
Outlook
database.
Unemployment has declined, but remains high for young people
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Source: OECD Economic Outlook 113 database. % of the labour force 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Total unemployment Youth unemployment (15-24)
Confidence has started to recover
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J a n / 1 9 J u l / 1 9 J a n / 2 0 J u l / 2 0 J a n / 2 1 J u l / 2 1 J a n / 2 2 J u l / 2 2 J a n / 2 3 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 Business confidence (manufacturing) Consumer confidence Source: OECD Main Economic Indicators database. Index, long-term average = 100
Growth is returning to more moderate levels
Economic projections
Note: 1. Harmonised index of consumer prices. Source: OECD calculations based on OECD Economic Outlook 113 database.
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2022 2023 2024 Real GDP growth, % 6.7 2.5 1.5 Unemployment rate, % 6.0 7.4 7.5 Headline inflation1, % 8.1 5.7 3.3 Fiscal balance, % of GDP -0.4 -0.1 -0.1
Meeting long-term spending needs
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The population is ageing rapidly
Share of the projected population aged 65 and over, %
10
Source: OECD Population statistics.
2 0 2 1 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 4 2 0 2 5 2 0 2 6 2 0 2 7 2 0 2 8 2 0 2 9 2 0 3 0 2 0 3 1 2 0 3 2 2 0 3 3 2 0 3 4 2 0 3 5 2 0 3 6 2 0 3 7 2 0 3 8 2 0 3 9 2 0 4 0 2 0 4 1 2 0 4 2 2 0 4 3 2 0 4 4 2 0 4 5 2 0 4 6 2 0 4 7 2 0 4 8 2 0 4 9 2 0 5 0 2 0 5 1 2 0 5 2 2 0 5 3 2 0 5 4 2 0 5 5 2 0 5 6 2 0 5 7 2 0 5 8 2 0 5 9 2 0 6 0 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37
Portugal Germany Italy Spain
Investment in key sectors has been low
Public investment in 2015-20, % of GDP
Note: Public investment corresponds to gross fixed capital formation. Economic affairs cover transport, communication, fuel and energy and other industries. General public services cover notably executive and legislative organs, financial and fiscal affairs, external affairs, foreign aid, basic research and public debt transactions.
Source: OECD National account statistics and OECD calculations.
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Health
public services Defence Education Economic affairs 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
General
Portugal OECD average
Meeting ambitious 2030 and 2050 GHG targets requires additional investment and policy efforts
Historic and projected GHG emissions, Mt CO2 equivalent
Total (excl. LULUCF)
Projected emissions with existing measures
Climate Law target (exl. LULUCF)
Note: GHG: greenhouse gas emissions. LULUCF: land use, land-use change and forestry.
Source: EA (2021), Greenhouse Gas Projections Data Viewer – December.
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1 9 9 0 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 8 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 4 2 0 2 6 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 0 2 0 3 2 2 0 3 4 2 0 3 6 2 0 3 8 2 0 4 0 2 0 4 2 2 0 4 4 2 0 4 6 2 0 4 8 2 0 5 0 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 -20000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000
Efforts to lower public debt should continue
Public debt (Maastricht definition), % of GDP
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Source: OECD Economic Outlook 113 database. 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 1 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 4 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 PRT DEU ESP ITA
Regular spending reviews would help make more room for public investment
Public expenditures in % of GDP, 2015-2020
Pensions
Compensation of employees
Health
Education
Social protection (excl. pensions)
Public debt
Public investment
Note: Public expenditures correspond to current expenditure and gross fixed capital formation.
Source: OECD National account statistics and OECD calculations.
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0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Portugal OECD
average
Boosting productivity and employment
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Productivity remains low
Labour productivity in current PPP, 2022
Note: Or latest available year.
Source: OECD Compendium of Productivity Indicators.
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C H L G R C K O R J P N H U N S V K P R T N Z L P O L E S T C Z E L V A L T U S V N E S P C A N G B R A U S I T A F I N I S L C H E F R A N L D D E U B E L U S A S W E A U T D N K N O R 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
The Recovery and Resilience Plan provides a unique opportunity after a decade of low investment
Government gross fixed capital formation, % of GDP
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Source:
113 database.
OECD Economic Outlook
2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 1 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Financial and technical support can foster the uptake of digital technologies
Take up of different technologies, % of businesses, 2021
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3D printing AI Big data E-sales website Internet of Things Cloud computing Social Media Website 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 Portugal OECD average OECD best performers¹ 1. Average of the five OECD countries where the take-up is the highest. Source: OECD (2022), ICT Access and Use by Businesses.
Lowering entry barriers and streamlining regulations will support firm growth
Regulations in some services sectors
Index scale from 0 to 6 (most restrictive regulations)
1. Average of the five OECD countries with the least distortive regulations.
Source: OECD (2019), Product market Regulation indicators.
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Lawyers Notaries Accountants Architects Civil engineers Estate agents Retail Retail sales of medicine 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Portugal OECD best performers¹ OECD average B R e g u l a t i o n s i n s o m e s e r v i c e s s e c t o r s n d e x s c a e r o m 0 o 6 ( m o s r e s r c v e r e g u a o n s )
Management skills could be strengthened
% of managers without secondary educational attainment, 20221
1. Share of managers with less than primary, primary and lower secondary educational attainments., 2022 or latest available year.
Source: Eurostat (2023), Education and training (database).
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L T U H R V E S T A U T B E L L U X G R C F R A I R L D E U N L D D N K E S P P R T I T A 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Promoting permanent contracts can improve job opportunities, especially for young people
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employment, % of total employment, 2021 L T U L V A U S A A U S H U N C Z E C R I N Z L A U T I R L L U X N O R G R C B E L D N K D E U T U R O E C D S V N C A N C H E J P N F R A P O L S W E I T A F I N P R T E S P C H L N L D K O R C O L 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Temporary
Source: OECD Labour Force Statistics (database).
Improving health outcomes
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Life expectancy has increased rapidly
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Source: OECD Health Statistics database. Life expectancy at birth, years L V A H U N L T U S V K M E X P O L E S T U S A C Z E G R C O E C D G B R D E U S V N C H L P R T A U T D N K N L D C A N B E L N Z L F R A I R L L U X I T A A U S N O R S W E E S P K O R C H E J P N 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 2021 or latest 2000
Strengthening prevention programmes could encourage healthy eating and exercise
Overweight or obese population, % of total population
Source: OECD Health Statistics Database.
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JPN KOR FRA ISR EST BEL LVA CAN IRL GBR TUR AUS NZL FIN HUN PRT USA CHL MEX 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Ensuring every patient is registered to a dedicated general practitioner would improve follow-up
% of primary-care users without an assigned general practitioner
Note: The data for 2022 refer to January to October.
Source: Administração Central do Sistema de Saúde .
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2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 1 2 0 2 2 ³ 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Portugal Health region of Algarve Health region of Lisbon
High out-of-pocket payments reflect shortages of doctors in the public health system
Out-of-pocket healthcare payments, as a share of current health expenditure, %, 2019
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Source: OECD, Health Indicators database.
F R A L U X N L D U S A S V N I R L J P N N Z L D E U S W E D N K N O R C Z E C O L A U S C A N G B R I S L T U R F I N A U T B E L S V K O E C D P O L I S R E S P C R I I T A E S T C H E H U N K O R P R T L T U C H L G R C L V A M E X 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Improved budgeting processes would help to balance health priorities with available fiscal space
National Health Service (NHS) revenues and expenditures, %
GDP
Source: CFP (2022) using data from ACSS (2023).
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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 Expenditures Revenues
of
A looming wave of retiring doctors will exacerbate shortages
Registered doctors, Per 1 000 population, 2021 or latest available
Note: Registered doctors represent the number of physicians registered with the Medical Associations, practising and not practising medicine. In Portugal, it does not include physicians with a declared residence abroad, nor dentists, stomatologists or dental and maxillofacial surgeons.
Source: OECD Health Statistics 2022 database, data provided by the Portuguese Medical Association, and OECD calculations.
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C H L C A N K O R U S A N Z L P O L G B R N L D F I N I S R A U S L V A L T U O E C D I R L E S T C Z E P R T E S P H U N G R C B E L D E U D N K S W E N O R I T A 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 67 year-old and above
Better remuneration would attract more people to the healthcare profession
Remuneration of specialists, in current USD PPPs, 2020
Note: Data refers to salaried specialists only.
Source: OECD Health Statistics Database.
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L V A L T U P O L M E X S V K G R C P R T H U N E S T C Z E C R I S V N F R A N O R T U R S W E I T A E S P O E C D F I N N Z L C H L I S R B E L I S L D N K G B R I R L D E U N L D K O R L U X 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000
The healthcare system could make more use of nurses
Ratio of nurses to doctors, 2019 or latest year
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Source: OECD Health at a Glance 2021.
C O L C H L M E X T U R P R T E S P L V A I T A I S R G R C L T U E S T H U N C Z E P O L S W E O E C D G B R S V N D E U A U S K O R F R A B E L N O R C A N I R L L U X C H E U S A F I N J P N 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
Prevention programmes need better funding
Spending on preventive care, Per capita, in current USD PPPs
Note: Includes only spending for organised prevention programmes. This differs however from global spending on prevention in Portugal and other OECD countries. Source: OECD (2022), OECD Health Statistics Database.
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S V K G R C P O L P R T H U N L T U E S P E S T B E L C Z E I S L F R A A U S S V N O E C D K O R A U T D N K I R L L U X J P N C H E I T A N O R S W E F I N N L D G B R D E U C A N U S A 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Higher excise taxes on alcohol and tobacco would reduce consumption
Alcohol consumption, Litres per capita (15+), 2021 or latest year
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Source: OECD, Health Statistics database.
T U R I S R M E X G R C J P N C H L N O R S W E I T A E S P K O R C A N F I N O E C D C H E B E L U S A A U S I R L G B R S V N S V K F R A H U N P R T E S T D E U P O L A U T L T U C Z E L V A 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
SMEs need better access to high-quality occupational health and safety services
Standardised rate of non-fatal accidents at work, Per 100 000 employees, 2015-2019
Note: Declarations of accidents at work are corrected for industry structure. The standardised incidence rate assumes that economic sectors in each country have the same relative size in terms of reference populations as the sectors at the EU level.
Source: Eurostat (2022), Accidents at work and other work-related health problems.
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G R C L V A N O R L T U P O L S V K H U N S W E I R L G B R C Z E E S T N L D I T A S V N D N K B E L F I N A U T D E U L U X C H E E S P F R A P R T 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
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