Transparent Environment

STRATEGIC FORESIGHT FOR SUCCESSFUL NET-ZERO TRANSITIONS

Transparent Environment Real-time data increases environmental accoutability POSSIBLE 2030-2050 DISRUPTION Increased investment in satellite infrastructure and other real-time sensing technologies provides precise identification and measurement of a vast array of environmental variables, including measurements of GHG emissions at a highly granular level (within a few metres). Large volumes of data on the natural world and emissions at a household level are constantly generated, processed in real time and made publicly available. This open source environmental oversight regime is supported by some governments, companies and civil society organisations in order to mitigate biodiversity loss, to act as early climate warning systems and to reverse environmental degradation. Environmental transparency allows scientists to constantly track and raise alarms early when there are threats to ecosystem health and conservation. It also allows for a highly data-driven debate about responsibility for emissions and the identification of points for intervention to reduce emissions.

CONTEXT

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Technology has brought better means of monitoring where CO2 and methane are being emitted globally. This could bring newfound transparency to climate change debates, which have been reliant on measurements by countries and businesses that may not have strong incentives to report their emissions. Given the potential for national sensitivities and public concerns over the potential infringements on privacy, it is uncertain to what extent a precise and reliable real-time picture of global emissions will be generated.

Source: Climate Action Tracker

This series is part of the Strategic Foresight for Successful Net-Zero Transitions toolkit which assists governments and organisations to develop forward-looking, adaptive and future-ready strategies for net-zero emission transitions.

Each part of the series showcases one “Possible Disruption” during the 2030-2050 period that could generate new opportunities or challenges for public policy. Each disruption was developed with foresight, academic and policy experts and represents a plausible extreme in a rapidly changing and uncertain future.

SIGNAL A UK company is launching a series of satellites equipped with thermal imaging probes that can identify poor insulation in buildings around the globe.

SIGNAL The European Space Agency’s Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service will “precisely pinpoint” GHG emissions resulting from human activity and make the data available open source..

SIGNAL Two teams of scientists independently developed the ability to detect animal DNA in the air, which could enable more accurate monitoring of rare and endangered species.

POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS The publication of real-time data could be a powerful tool to increase corporate and government accountability for environmental action and lead to heightened public pressure on companies to clean up their supply chains or face consumer backlash. New urban planning policies may need to be instated due to public identification of heat islands and higher pollution levels in certain areas, resulting in public pressure for urban greening interventions and other changes to infrastructure and the built environment. Open source data could assist civil society in advocating for more government assistance to vulnerable people in their transition to greener ways of living.

Global, open source emissions data could enable states to hold other states accountable for failure to reduce emissions and other demonstrable short-comings on climate targets. In some cases, states may even be able to impose import tariffs, sanctions, or other penalties for emissions above agreed upon thresholds. This capacity for greater state-to-state monitoring, as well as monitoring of firms, could lead to interstate tensions or backlash in the form of cyberattacks or attacks on satellite infrastructure. Some emitters will search for ways to avoid detection and responsibility.

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The abundance of detailed environmental data could enable the testing and more effective scaling-up of climate interventions, such as carbon capture or geoengineering. Better data could also translate to better understanding environmental tipping points and a clearer sense of what scale of climate interventions may be necessary to minimize the risk of catastrophic climate change.

QUESTIONS FOR POLICYMAKERS •

How can policymakers translate data into stronger policy action on net-zero?

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What will the consequences be if data reveals that emissions are significantly higher than reported and net-zero becomes prohibitive?

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What would be an suitable global data governance regime to achieve a just transition?

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What is an appropriate balance between privacy protections and holding emitters to account?

POLICY EXAMPLE Methane is the second largest cause of global warming today , and until recently, emissions were difficult and costly to detect. Governments and corporations have recently added satellites to aerial overflights and ground monitoring, significantly lowering detection costs.

Satellites can locate large emission sources, while covering the entire world in four days.

This data enables policymakers to take action, such as the Global Methane Pledge at COP26 and has demonstrated that methane is a more serious challenge than previously understood.

STRATEGIC FORESIGHT FOR SUCCESSFUL NET-ZERO TRANSITIONS www.oecd.org/strategic-foresight | foresight@oecd.org