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Electric Truck Deployment Ready for Acceleration in 2023
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Though battery-electric models currently make up only a small fraction of total global truck sales (around 0.4% in 2021), it is already clear that the transition from diesel combustion engines to zero-emission technologies is well underway. Volvo Trucks suggest they expect that, by 2030, more than 50% of the trucks they sell each year should be electric. Truck OEMs face rising pressure to reduce the environmental impact of their vehicles, with legislation enacted to reduce exhaust greenhouse gas emissions and improve urban air quality. But, alongside this challenge, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are seeing growing demand from their customers who need zero-emission solutions to help deliver their corporate emission reduction targets. As a result, the number of available electric truck models is increasing, with OEMs ramping up production volumes of these models. In its report, “Electric and Fuel Cell Trucks 2023-2043”, IDTechEx forecasts that the truck market is at the beginning of a relatively rapid shift to electric powertrains.
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Truck Market Gets Choice of Class 8 Electric Trucks
In North America, electric heavy-duty truck options have been limited until this year. However, in 2022, several major OEMs (including Daimler, Volvo, and Tesla) began series production of Class 8 electric trucks. Perhaps the earliest anticipated announcement was from Tesla, which at the start of October, confirmed that its Tesla Semi had finally gone into early production at Tesla’s Nevada Gigafactory (the original production date was scheduled for December 2019). The first 15 electric Class 8 trucks were expected to be delivered to Pepsi Co. in December 2022. What makes this announcement significant is the performance promised by Tesla when compared to other available electric models: up to a 500-mile range (when loaded on a flat route), no sacrifice of payload capacity, Megachargers capable of returning 70% of range in 30 minutes of charging, and on-road energy consumption of less than 2 kWh/mile.
The Tesla Semi could offer the performance and total cost of ownership that make it competitive with current diesel trucks for some long-haul operations. The large order book for the vehicle demonstrates plenty of companies are keen to explore the technology, and 2023 should see several of them get the opportunity to put Tesla’s claims to the test. Tesla has tentatively set the goal of an annual production of 50,000 vehicles per year in 2024.
Moving on from Electric Prototypes to Fleet Replacement
Sustainability is an increasingly important concern in the boardroom of major corporations. Many are making public commitments to decarbonize their business operations in line with the UNFCC Paris Agreement and national net-zero emission targets. Transitioning truck fleets from diesel engines to zero-emission powertrains is a highly visible way to demonstrate their green credentials to their customers.
While IDTechEx believes the initial deployment of electric trucks will be best suited to regional and urban routes, ongoing development work in battery technology, improved powertrain efficiency and optimization of charging strategy will, over the next two decades, see future generations of electric trucks able to meet the energy demand of all but the most arduous of long-haul duty cycles. 2023 promises to be an exciting year, with companies able to move on from small pilot tests of electric trucks to genuine replacement of diesel-fueled fleet vehicles in cases where the duty cycle is compatible with electric operation. However, given the initial range limitations of the technology, OEMs must work with their customers on each deployment to avoid potential disappointment.
The IDTechEx report is designed to help businesses plan for the future and provides a 20-year outlook for zero-emission truck sales, market penetration, battery demand, fuel cell demand, and market value. |
David Wyatt, Luke Gear and Shazan Siddiqi are analysts for IDTechEx.
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