NEWSLETTER No 41 – August 2010 MARKET COMMENTARY EXPECTED CROP YEAR PERFORMANCE IN 2010/11 (estimates) Olive oil
According to the estimates received from a number of IOC member countries, production in 2010/11 could be slightly higher than the season before provided weather conditions remain favourable. Among EU producers, Spain expects to produce 1 400 000 t, almost on a par with the year before, while Greece expects production to reach 336 000 t (+5%) and France 6 000 t. Elsewhere, production could climb the most in Israel (9 000 t = +157%), Algeria (60 000 t = +126%), Iran (8 000 t = +50%) and Albania (7 000 t = +40%). Other countries also expected to record higher production are Syria with 193 500t (+29%), Turkey with 160 000t (+9%) and Argentina with 17 500 t (+9%). Conversely, the estimates for Tunisia point to a 20% drop in production to 120 000 t. World olive oil production 1990/91-2010/11 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500
2010/11 (es t.)
2009/10 (prov .)
2008/9
2007/8
2006/7
2005/6
2004/5
2003/4
2002/3
2001/2
2000/1
1999/0
1998/9
1997/98
1996/97
1995/96
1994/95
1993/94
1992/93
1991/92
1990/91
0
Table olives Judging from the estimated figures for table olives, the performance of the 2010/11 crop year is expected to be similar to the season before. EU production is estimated at 700 000 t, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.3%. Outside the EU, the biggest production increases are expected to occur in Israel (18 500 t = +95%) and Iran (47 000 t = +77%), followed by Syria (155 000 t = +15%) and Albania (22 000 t = +22%). In the other direction, estimates put production at lower levels in Egypt (290 000 t, down by -3%), Tunisia (20 000 t, down by -9%) and above all Turkey (300 000 t, down by -23%). The data the IOC has received for Argentina do not yet provide a clear snapshot although table olive production in this country may rise quite significantly as there appears to be a move towards switching from oil-olive production to table olive production owing to the low oil content of some varieties. Market research on CHINA, RUSSIA and USA/CANADA At the behest of the IOC, the Executive Secretariat has conducted market research on olive oil and table olive consumption in China, Russia and the USA/Canada prior to launching promotional campaigns. This research can be viewed and downloaded at the following address: http://www.internationaloliveoil.org/web/aa-frances/corp/AreasActivitie/promotion/Etudesmarche.html
International trade: +6% in the first seven months of the 2009/10 crop year Trading in olive oil between the months of October 2009 and April 2010 in the six leading importing countries listed in the table below rose by 44 022.2 t (+6%) versus the same period the year before. This increase was driven by higher imports into “secondary” countries such as Japan (+44%), Australia (+35%), Brazil (+20%) and Canada (+26%) while the United States, the world’s leading importer, experienced import growth of only +4%. At the time of writing data were not available for the EU for May 2010, but comparison of the data for October to April show a rise of +3%.
Source: International Olive Council
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NEWSLETTER No 41 – August 2010 MARKET COMMENTARY
* Canada has corrected its data.
MOVEMENTS IN PRODUCER PRICES Graphs 1 and 3 track the weekly movements in the producer prices paid for extra virgin olive oil and refined olive oil in the top EU producing countries. The monthly price movements for the same two grades of oil and refined olive-pomace oils are shown in Graphs 2, 4 and 5 respectively. Year-on-year comparison of prices at the end of August shows a picture where:
The prices for extra virgin olive oil have dropped by 23% in Spain to €1.95/kg, by 15% in Greece to €2.04/kg and by 15% in Italy to €2.66/kg (Graph 1), but in recent weeks prices in Italy have steadied somewhat versus the gradual price downturn in Spain since the month of May (Graph 2).
Graph 1
Source: International Olive Council
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NEWSLETTER No 41 – August 2010 MARKET COMMENTARY
Graph 2
The prices for refined olive oil over the same comparative period have fallen by 26% in Spain to €1.83 /kg and by 22% in Italy to €1.90/kg (Graph 3). However, prices have picked up slightly in recent weeks, making a break from the uninterrupted decline since September 2009 (Graph 4).
Graph 3 Source: International Olive Council
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NEWSLETTER No 41 – August 2010 MARKET COMMENTARY
Graph 4
Graph 5
Source: International Olive Council
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