NEWSLETTER No 46 – January 2011 MARKET COMMENTARY CROP YEAR 2010/11 •
Export 1/ movements in the top three EU producers: olive oil and olive-pomace oil
At the start of the 2010/11 season Spain saw its exports go up in October and November 2010. In volume terms, exports came to 165 875.39 t, representing 49% more than in the same period of the previous crop year. Spanish exports to countries inside the EU totalled 120 121.01 t. This equated with +48% growth, generated mainly by exports to the following countries, listed by order of volume: Italy, Portugal, France, United Kingdom and Germany. Exports by Spain to non-EU countries came to 45 754.38 t, showing an increase of +52%. The most significant shares in this increase were held by China, Brazil, Russia and South Korea. Italian exports totalled 32 393.1 t in October 2010. This translates into a 13% rise on the same period the season before. Exports to countries inside the EU recorded a 32.5% increase, going up to 20 679.5 t. The bulk of this increase came from exports to the United States, Canada, Japan, China and Australia, in that order. In contrast, at 11 713.6 t, Italian exports outside the EU were down by 9.5%. The crop year in Greece opened with 7 696.6 t of exports, representing a 9% increase on the same period of the previous season. Greek exports to non-EU countries came to 1 559.1 t, up by 8%. The countries behind this increase were the United States, China, Canada and Russia. Intra-EU exports totalled 6 137.5 t, again showing an increase, this time of +9.2%, chiefly to Italy, Poland and the United Kingdom.
% Spanish exports by type of oil (October 2009)
% Italian exports by type of oil (October 2009)
% Spanish exports by type of oil (October 2010)
% Italian exports by type of oil (October 2010)
The breakdown of Italian exports in October 2010 was the same as a year ago. The same analysis for Spain reveals a bigger share for virgin olive oil (+4 points) and a smaller share for olive pomace oil (-3 points). The breakdown for Greece shows an increase in the shares of both virgin (+2 points) and olive pomace oil (+2 points), with the accompanying decrease in the share of olive oil.
1/
Source: EUROSTAT. At the time of publishing this newsletter, data were only available for October 2010. The November data for Spain have been supplied by the Ministry of Industry, Tourism and Trade.
Source: International Olive Council
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NEWSLETTER No 46 – January 2011 MARKET COMMENTARY
% Greek exports by type of oil (October 2009)
% Greek exports by type of oil (October 2010)
Elsewhere, Syria expects its exports to rise by 20 000 t on the year-before level. If confirmed, this would be a record year for exports. Turkey expects its exports to go up by 16 000 t. In the first three months of the season, it exported 3 183.3 t, of which 58% was extra virgin grade (see pie chart below).
%Turkish exports by type of oil (October–December 2010)
•
Olive oil production o
Spain
According to figures released by the Agencia para el Aceite de Oliva (Spanish Olive Oil Agency), Spain produced 528 500 t during the 2010/11 harvest (October–December 2010). This represents an increase of +29% in the amount of olive oil produced by the world’s top producer, compared with the season before. This is explained by the favourable weather conditions during harvest compared with the preceding season (2009/10) when bad weather brought harvesting to a halt in the month of December 2009.
WORLD OLIVE OIL MARKET INTERNATIONAL TRADING AT THE OUTSET OF 2010/11 As we commented in issue 45 of the newsletter, trading in olive oil, intra-EU trade included, between the months of October 2009 and September 2010 (period spanning the 2009/10 crop year) in the six key import markets listed in the table below rose by 89 212.2 t (+6.5%) versus the same period the year before. This increase was driven by strong import growth in “secondary” countries such as Australia (+22%), Japan (+28%), Canada (+24%) and Brazil (+21%) while the +6% increase in EU imports offset the small drop in US imports (-2%).
Source: International Olive Council
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NEWSLETTER No 46 – January 2011 MARKET COMMENTARY Over the first two cumulative months (October, November) of the 2010/11 season, imports by Australia increased steadily (+13%). Brazil also recorded import growth but on a smaller, more irregular scale (+9%). Conversely, imports by Canada and Japan fell (-2%). A decrease, albeit a small one (-1%), was still also recorded in US imports. Data for the EU for the month of November were not available at the time of publishing this newsletter, but show a year-on-year increase of 2% for October.
Imports of olive oil (incl. olive-pomace oils) No
Importing country
Oct 09
Oct 10
Nov 09
Nov 10
1
Australia
2309.0
2492.8
3016.0
3519.0
2
Brazil
5499.0
6852.5
6154.4
5906.6
3
Canada
3043.0
3494.0
4109.0
3498.0
4
Japan
2729.0
2911.0
2936.0
2651.0
5
USA
23098.0
25040.5
22746.0
20490.0
EU/27
82986.8
84572.2
72338.9
n.d.
119664.8
125363.0
111300.3
6
(Intra+ExtraEU)
Total
MOVEMENTS IN PRODUCER PRICES Graphs 1 and 3 track the weekly movements in the producer prices paid for extra virgin olive oil and refined olive oil in the top EU producing countries. The monthly price movements for the same two grades of oil and refined olive-pomace oils are shown in Graphs 2, 4 and 5 respectively. •
Extra virgin olive oil: Comparison with the same period of the year before reveals that current prices in Spain (€2.00/kg) and Greece (€1.95/kg) dropped by 3% while in Italy they moved in the opposite direction, going up by 17% to (€3.05/kg – Graph 1). Recent weeks have seen a sharp recovery in prices in Italy, a small drop in Greece and stability in Spain, although there was a timid upturn in the last week of January 2011.
Graph 1 Source: International Olive Council
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NEWSLETTER No 46 – January 2011 MARKET COMMENTARY
Graph 2
Refined olive oil: The same comparison for refined olive oil shows that prices have dropped by 13% (to €1.92/kg) in Spain and 13% (€1.77/kg) in Italy (Graph 3) from season-before levels. No data are available for Greece. The recent trend has been for prices to pick up slightly in Italy, while recovery has been weaker in Spain. The very mild price recovery that began in August 2010 continued through to mid-December, since when the trend seems to have reversed.
Graph 3 Source: International Olive Council
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NEWSLETTER No 46 – January 2011 MARKET COMMENTARY
Grap 4
Graph 5
Source: International Olive Council
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