SELF SHARE SELF SHARE SELF SHARE INTRODUCTION BOOK
OLIVIA EGGINGTON
1908042
INTRODUCTION For this project I am going to produce a comprehensive trend forecast that aims to predict the condition and the position of the fashion industry in 2030. Trend Forecasting is the process of researching and formulating predictions on consumers' future buying habits. By identifying the source, tracing the evolution, and recognising patterns of trends, forecasters can provide designers and brands with a ‘vision’ of the future (Flaunter, 2020).
A trend is a general direction into which something is changing, developing, or veering toward (MBN, 2020). There are two distinct types of trends. ‘Fads’ are more commonly described as shortterm trends, but I am going to analyse, evaluate and then forecast a long-term trend that will emerge by 2030. This approach will be taken as longterm trends have the greatest influence on the market.
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WILL THE FASHION INDUSTRY IN 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 PRIMARILY BE ‘LEFT’ LED BY 2030 2030 2030 2030 TRADITIONALISM AND OUR PAST OR 2030 2030 2030 2030 ‘RIGHT’ AND LED BY INNOVATION AND 2030 2030 2030 2030 EMBRACING THE DIGITAL INDUSTRY?
2030 2030 2030 2030
2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030
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INITIAL RESEARCH For my initial research, to understand what future trends will arise, it is important to understand what is happening in the industry now and what has happened in the past. Prior to the commencement of this academic year, I was able to explore how economic, social, and cultural influences will affect my trend forecasting for 2030. I will assess how these influences will impact and influence the industry over the next two decades. Fashion is a unique, fast paced, ever changing industry that mirrors everything happening in the world. It is heavily influenced by many factors including social, cultural, and economic changes. It responds to innovative technologies and anticipates the wants of the consumer. Currently, we are living in times of great uncertainty which are impacting on all aspects of life and the global economy. There have been multiple social and economic factors that have affected trends such as Climate Change, COVID-19, and the Black Lives Matter movement. This has led to many people feeling anxious and uncertain about what the future holds. However, as unsettling as these times are, I think there will also be many positive changes that will be discussed. These factors have given the industry a much-needed opportunity to reinvent and realign itself.
The coronavirus pandemic is anticipated to have a substantial impact on the future of the fashion industry. It has impacted people's lives in countless ways and forced many to become more self-sufficient and mindful. People are having to be more considerate in relation to the places they are going, people they are mixing with and the money they are spending. Cleanliness also has a key talking point with people becoming more concerned about selfhygiene and the hygiene of surfaces. Though not all changes caused by the pandemic will be permanent, for the fashion industry it has highlighted pre-existent concerns and issues, ones that have required attention for some time. These factors include the rate, cost and overproduction of clothes that are being made caused by the fast fashion industry.
‘More than half of all the garments that are being produced are being thrown away before even going into someone’s wardrobe’ (Vogue, 2020). It has really made people think about the clothes they are buying. Fashion spending plummeted a record 79% in April, early in the pandemic (Vogue, 2020). On average, people had less money to spend and were increasingly worried about job security. Spending is on the rise again, but people simply are not shopping the way they used to; the industry is not expected to fully recover for several years (Vogue, 2020).
COVID-19 COVID-19
‘The fashion industry is the second largest polluter in the world’ (Sustain your style, 2020). This is an extensive problem that is leading to brands having to re-brand themselves to stay relevant and popular, especially fast fashion brands. ‘Throwaway fashion’ leads to 300,000 tonnes of textiles ending up in landfill in the United Kingdom (The Times, 2019). This is an issue that cannot be ignored as ‘the earth has a deadline’ of 7 years before the effects of global warming become irreversible (Engineering, 2020). A second worry for the fast fashion industry is the negative press that some brands have been attracting because of the treatment of their workers during lockdown.
This includes brands such as ASOS where a survey carried out by GMB showed that ‘98% of the 4,000 Grimethorpe ASOS workers felt unsafe’ (Open Access Government, 2020). There were also rising concerns about the inequality towards people of colour following the murder of George Floyd. Many modern consumers have established extraordinarily strong ethical, social, and political views and they are quick to publicly criticise and reject brands that do not share similar values. Therefore, my research has led me to believe that the concept of fast fashion will rapidly decline as many will evoke their principles and look to support a fashion industry that will be ‘slow.
SUSTAINABILITY SUSTAINABILITY
Slow fashion is ‘an awareness and approach to fashion, which considers the processes and resources required to make clothing, particularly focusing on sustainability’ (Good on you, 2020). It refutes all the practices of fast fashion as it focuses on producing garments with longevity, and it encourages an equitable and respectful treatment of people, the planet, and animals. Gen Z and Millennial's are the potential ‘change makers’ and they care about the future of the planet.
It is found that ‘sixty-five percent of Gen Z say they want a more "plant-forward" diet, while 79% choose to go meatless once or twice a week (The Beat, 2020). They are also expressing a greater interest in quality over quantity. ‘Over 60% of both age groups say they are willing to pay more for an item if it is sustainable’ (Forbes,2020). Brands are expecting to nearly double their sales of sustainable clothing in the next five years.
SLOW FASHION FASHION SLOW
“There is a clear trend to blending the physical world with online content” - Matthew Drinkwater. The pandemic has led to brands having to reconsider their marketing methods. At the start of the pandemic the fashion industry had to come to a complete halt with production stopping, stores closing and the unfortunate impact of job losses. High streets have been hugely affected due to the amount of store closures. For example, H&M announced that it will be closing 70% of its stores worldwide (Open Access Government, 2020). With the closing of non-essential shops, due to government enforced restrictions, this has given people no other choice but to shop online. Questions are arising about the future impact and effect this will have. Will people continue to embrace these digital platforms, or will people miss the physical ability to interact with fashion items prior to purchase?
Fashion Week is something that has had to quickly adapt. However, I do not think digital fashion weeks have been as bad as originally thought. They have allowed the shows to be reached by a larger audience and allowed people to have a much more intimate experience. What impact would digitalising fashion week have on the rest of the industry? It has led to an increase awareness in digital clothing brands such as ‘The Fabricant’ which have increased in popularity following the pandemic. Brands like the fabricant are offering aspects to the fashion industry that have never been seen before.
DIGITAL DIGITAL
Research shows that ‘42% of consumers vow to shop more online even after stores reopen’ (Internet Retailing, 2020). This shows that online shopping is increasingly becoming the favourable mode of shopping and this is figure is only going to increase in the future with the rise of the new consumer, Alpha. They are described as the ‘tech titans’ as they are the first cohort to be given screens at infancy as pacifiers, entertainers and educational aids (Extreme Reach, 2020). The digital world is continuing to expand. Recently we have seen the introduction of 5G. “5G will change the world in day-to day terms, Melling believes it will enable the “true interaction of the physical and digital worlds in real time” (Raconteur, 2020).
We are seeing a rise in technologies that are allowing us to alter and enhance the digital and virtual world, but they are still in their preliminary stages. However, 5G will remove the friction points by moving data back and forth much more quickly (Raconteur 2020). We are already seeing brands such as Balenciaga blending the boundaries between fashion and gaming through their video game website, ‘After world, The age of tomorrow'. The streetwear collection is inspired by human destiny. Players will experience Balenciaga’s virtual world as it moves from decay towards a healthier balance between nature and industry (Vogue, 2020). Collaboration between industry's and sectors is a new forward way of thinking.
“DIGITAL FASHION IS TAKING ON A NEW MEANING” - MATTHEW DRINKWATER
‘Social disruptions have always had an impact on people’s clothes- not only how they are worn, but also how they are made and sold’ (Fashion United, 2020). In the current climate, with job losses and the potential for significant reductions in disposable income due to reduced hours and the UK governments Furlough scheme supporting incomes at a reduced rate, I looked at corresponding past events and how consumers reacted. The Great Recession in 2007 caused similar economic problems that we are experiencing now. Millions of people lost their jobs, leading to consumers reducing their spending. Brands reacted to this by stocking less and reverting to selling the items they knew performed best. This led to a very stripped back minimalist approach to marketing. The minimalist aesthetic was also influenced by the release of the first iPhone. Similarly, following World War 2 people were more cautious about how they were spending their money and clothing became very practical. These events indicate that at times of uncertainty people like to revert to ideas and concepts that they already know and are comfortable with.
2020 has been a big year for remaking, reusing, upcycling, and reminiscing about past garments. During the lockdown, it was found that young people were becoming increasingly interested in customising, upcycling, and reconstructing (Vogue, 2020). Re-working clothes that we already have is an appreciable way to encourage a more sustainable, circular future we desire. An app which is an increasingly current way to resell clothes is Depop. ‘Since April 1, 2020, the company saw a 163 percent year-over-year increase in new app signups, a 200 percent year-overyear traffic growth in the US and a 300 percent year-over-year increase in items sold’ (Fashion United, 2020). In September, when many of us were thinking about our fall wardrobes, “vintage fashion” generated more than 35,000 new searches on Lyst, while entries for second hand-related keywords increased 104% (Vogue, 2020).
SOCIAL DISTRUPTIONS DISTRUPTIONS SOCIAL
CONCLUSION People are increasingly looking for personalisation. Gen Z are more engaged by personalised marketing, products, and experiences. Technology is empowering personalisation. For brands, a key element in retaining a consumer is by providing well fitted garments made from long-lasting materials. This prompts the thought, what is the future of sizing in clothing? Will sizes be forgotten? Many people can find sizing demoralising because each size varies depending which store you are at. For 2030, we need to look at what we are doing and how it can be developed to embrace digital advancements in a more positive way. Will it reflect the role of a tailor in the past? Will the modern ‘tailor’ be virtual and something that more people will be able to access?
To conclude my summer research, I think that the future of the fashion industry will be traditionalism led by innovation. For 2030, we need to look at what we are doing and how it can be developed to embrace digital advancements in a more positive way. Embracing the digital industry and new advancements is a logical step forward, however this will not be the main focus of my trend. The focus of my trend is to move towards the sustainable future we desire. Another key factor in my trend is the impact the pandemic is going to have on the future of the industry. I will now expand on key areas of my initial research to develop a detailed trend report looking at what the future of the luxury, slow fashion industry will be primarily aimed at the Generation Z consumer.
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