TECHNOLOGICAL HYPES VS SOCIOECOLOGICAL LIMITS
José Bellver Soroa Post-Growth 2018 Conference, European Parliament, Brussels
THE ECOLOGICAL RIFT
FROM THE LIMITS OF GROWTH TO “THE GROWTH OF LIMITS”
RELATING TECH & SOCIOECOLOGICAL CRISIS
The Great Acceleration
Source: W. Steffen, et al., Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure, Springer, 2004; IGBP.
RELATIVE VS ABSOLUTE DECOUPLING
Rebound effects through scale and price in growth/profit-led economies
RELATIVE DECOUPLING
Emisiones de CO2 PIB
Source: T., Jackson, Prosperity without growth, 2009
RELATIVE DECOUPLING
Material Consumption GDP
Source: T., Jackson, Prosperity without growth, 2009
World materialsextraction (thousand millionsof tons) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Biomass
Fossil fuels
Metal minerals
Non-metal minerals
Fuente: Krausmann , Fridolin, Simone Gingrich, Nina Eisenmenger, Karl-Heinz Erb, Helmut Haberl, Marina Fischer-Kowalski, (2009): “Growth in global materials use, GDP and population during the 20th century�, Ecological Economics, 68, pp. 2696-2705.
ABSOLUTE DECOUPLING? Direct materials consumption per person in the OECD (tons per cรกpita)
Material consumption
Source: OECD
GDP growth
World GHG emissions, 1970-2012 (millon kT CO2 equivalents )
Source: World Bank
DIGITAL EFFICIENCY?
Carpintero, O., Murray, I., Bellver, J. (2016), “The New Scramble for Africa: BRICS Strategies in a Multipolar World”, Research in Political Economy, v.30-B (USGS data).
CIRCULAR ECONOMY?
urce: Graedel et al. (2011) What Do We Know About Metal Recycling Rates? Journal of Industrial Ecology, 15, 355-366
“Boomerang” (extraction & toxic waste)
DECARBONIZATION
- Renewables also dependent on minerals and fossil fuels - Problematic decarbonization at same levels of consumption Example: Electrifying 990 million cars, 130 million vans, 56 million trucks, 670 million motorcylces would require‌ 33% world lithium reserves 48% world nickel reserves 59% world platinum
FINAL REMARKS
- New tech can be limited by ecological constraints and/or accelerate the clash with biophysical limits - Costs of opportunity between transtions tech and other techs - Not generalizable developments: tech progress proportional to power to “hoard� resources - Institutional framework is a key issue, where targets should be more focused on distribution and sufficiency