Corn south december 2015

Planning For 2016

CornSouth ONE GROWER PUBLISHING, LLC

Southern Production & Marketing Strategies

A Supplement to Cotton Farming and The Peanut Grower Magazines

December 2015

CornSouth

Advantages Of Planting Early

High-Yielding Planting Dates

Are You Optimistic?

What goes up, must come down.

There’s no two ways about it, and what is coming down now and has been for a while, is farm income.

For the fifth quarter in a row, farm Amanda Huber income has deEditor clined, according to a recently published survey by the Federal Reserve Bank in St. Louis of agricultural banks, some of which were located in the Mid-South.

In 2015, some crops were drowned out, and some acres were never planted at all.

The result will be a reliance on crop insurance and a scaling back of spending.

“The lower projected farm income will likely reduce loan demand for capital expenditures for both machinery and farmland,” said one Missouri lender about the expected continuing decline in the last quarter this year.

But ag lenders work with farmers, and farmers are an optimistic bunch, even in the face of daunting challenges. No doubt some of that optimism has rubbed off on lenders because 50 percent of them reported being optimistic about the ag sector over the next five to 10 years, with 35 percent being neutral.

Said one banker, “I am optimistic because I do not think this downturn will be as severe as the 1980s.”

Well, let’s hope not. For now, ag lenders commend producers for having worked to increase their net worth and for following good business practices. If there’s one thing producers know how to do, it’s tighten that money belt.

On the Cover: U of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture photo by Kevin Lawson. https://creativecommons.org/licenses /by-nc/2.0/legalcode

If you have comments, send them to Corn South, 6515 Goodman Rd., Box 360, Olive Branch, MS, 38654. You may also call (800) 888-9784 or contact Lia Guthrie at lguthrie@onegrower.com or Amanda Huber at ahuber@onegrower.com.

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CORN SOUTH DECEMBER 2015

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lanting date is one of the many factors that affect corn yield potential, and at times, such as in 2015, producers have little control over when they are able to get into the fields to plant. However, when conditions are favorable to plant, knowing the optimum time to produce high-yielding corn is beneficial to add into the decision-making process. Information and data on planting dates for corn from three Extension specialists follows.

Erick Larson, Extension agronomist, Mississippi State University

Planting late is probably the most common problem in Mississippi corn production. It is well established throughout the corn-producing areas of the United States that early planting produces higher yields than late planting. The standard for determining earliest planting date is when soil temperature at planting depth is maintained at 50 to 55 degrees Fahrenheit.

The primary reason to plant early is to avoid environmental stresses. Corn requires the greatest amount of water during silking. Mississippi studies indicate corn requires about 1.5 inches of water per week during the peak growing period.

Rainfall is normally insufficient to meet this requirement. When rainfall is insufficient, good yields depend on water stored in the soil. This is why early plant development and the water-holding capacity of the soil are so important. Corn pollinating in late May and June will have a better moisture relationship in most years than will corn flowering in July and August.

Temperature also affects yield. High temperatures can cause death of pollen and also kernel abortion. A combination of water stress and high temperatures at pollination can be disastrous. Under these conditions, pollen shedding is accelerated and silking is delayed, resulting in ear barrenness because of contrast in development timing. Stress during grain filling results in severe competition for photosynthate between vegetative and reproductive components, leaving less for grain filling, thus greatly reducing yield.

From irrigated and dryland corn planting date studies conducted over several years at the MSU Delta Research and Extension Center at Stoneville and the RR Foil Research Center, research data indicate several key findings for Mississippi corn: 1. Yield reductions for late-planted irrigated corn gradually decline, then escalate over an extended time period.

Because productivity does not abruptly nose-dive during April or early May, there is little justification to “cut-off” or completely abandon corn planting intentions if planting is slightly delayed past optimum dates.

2. The results show irrigated corn may produce optimum yields about 10 days later than older guidelines, which differ depending upon latitude regions of our state.

3. Yield reduction associated with late-planted corn grown in dryland culture is likely to steadily decline and is a more significant limiting factor, compared to irrigated corn.

For updated suggested corn planting dates for different regions in Mississippi, go to the Mississippi Crop Situation blog at www.mississippi-crops. com/2015/04/07.

David Wright, Extension agronomist, University of Florida

Corn growth and development are primarily dependent on temperature rather than day length. Successful germination requires a morning soil temperature of 55 degrees Fahrenheit at a two-inch depth for three consecutive days. This can range from early February in light sandy soils to mid-March on cold, wet, heavy soils.

Frost may still occur after these planting dates, but corn normally withstands frost damage to above ground tissue since the growing point is still below the soil surface until corn reaches about 12 inches tall. In Florida, planting dates for corn begin in late February and proceed to late April.

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Advantages to early planting include the following: • More stored soil moisture • Higher yield potential • Lower temperatures during pollination • Longer day lengths at pollination • Early harvest before cotton and peanuts • Less insect and disease pressure When moisture is adequate, plant seed between one and two inches deep. When soil moisture is deeper than 2.5 inches, waiting for a rain or irrigating may improve stands. In cold, sandy soil, the depth may need to be closer to one to one and a half inches. Germination time and emergence will vary with moisture and temperature from five to 30 days.

Irrigated corn yields tend to be fairly consistent from February through April and then decline in May and later plantings due to insect damage and disease. However, tropical hybrids with insect-resistant genes can produce high yields into June. Non-irrigated corn may do best from late April planting, if normal rainfall occurs in July

and August. Non-irrigated corn is at risk each year since dry periods of three weeks or longer occur often.

Clemson University Corn Production Guide

The most active planting for South Carolina is between March 20 and April 20.

Planting usually begins in early March.

When planting, start with full-season hybrids first and then plant early season and mid-season hybrids. The full-maturity hybrids would have the benefit of maximum heat-unit accumulation. Delaying planting of full-season hybrids would reduce yields more than other short- and mid-season hybrids. Therefore, use short- or medium-season hybrids when planting late. However, planting corn late in the growing season increases insect and disease pressure and the risk of low yields due to pollination occurring during a period of high temperature and moisture stress.

Higher grain yields are usually obtained when corn is planted as early as weather conditions permit mainly because of reduced pest pressure late in the season, better rainfall patterns and cooler air temperatures during corn silking. Start planting corn when soil temperature reaches about

SOME SAY IT. WE DO IT. S E E F O R Y O U R S E L F.

55 degrees Fahrenheit at the two-inch depth in the morning and the weather forecast indicates a good chance of warm temperatures over the next few days. Soil temperature will depend on soil type and moisture content.

Light sandy soils warm up faster than heavy and wet soils. Also, planting should be delayed three to five days if planting notill due to plant residue and higher moisture. Corn should be planted during optimum moisture to support traffic without causing soil compaction and mudding the seeds. Frost may occur following planting, but corn normally withstands frost damage to above-ground tissue since the growing point is still below the soil surface until corn reaches V5-V6 stage (about 12 inches).

CS Planting Tips: • Plant full-season hybrids first to allow for maximum heat-unit accumulation.

• Plant early and mid-season hybrids later in the planting window.

• Later planting may result in more disease and insect pressure.

Dulaney Seed helps you take yields higher through the powerful Maximum Profit System. With the help of an AgVenture Yield Specialist, you’ll select AgVenture corn seed with high genetic potential, develop a high-yielding cropping plan and apply proven strategies to gain bushels and max out profits.

“With AgVenture, we know we’re getting the seed we want and the seed we need for our soil types. We have a plan in place way before springtime, and it makes a big difference on that many acres in getting the most bushels possible.”

–Tommy Swindoll, Mississippi Delta Call Dulaney Seed today to speak with an AgVenture Yield Specialist about reducing crop risk, identify yield limiting factors, and lower cost per bushel.

(662) 627-7060 | dulaneyseed.com Photo by Aubrey Falls Photography

Twitter: @Corn_South

CORN SOUTH DECEMBER 2015

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Prepare A 2016 Marketing Plan

Market Outlook

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he yield estimate for the 2015 U.S. corn crop was raised to 1.3 bushels in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). With harvested acres unchanged, this revision boosts U.S. corn production by 99 million bushels. On the use side, a 25 million bushel increase in feed use was offset by a 75 million bushel reduction in corn for fuel and a 100 million bushel cut to exports. The net effect of these changes was ending stocks up 199 million bushels to 1.760 billion, the highest carryover since 2005/06, and an estimated average farm price of $3.65. If realized, at the end of the marketing year next August, this price would result in a five-cent Price Loss Coverage payment.

The grain sorghum balance sheet was revised to show a drop in exports of 105 million bushels, but was made up in feed use up 25 million and food, seed and industrial up 85 million. The ending stock estimate of 58 million bushels is up from 42 million last month, and the stocks-to-use ratio is 10.5 percent. The season average farm price of $3.60 would earn a 35-cent PLC payment.

The world coarse grain picture changed considerably in the WASDE report, with the world corn ending stock estimate up 24 mmt or 13 percent. The estimate of days-of-use on hand at the end of the marketing year increased by 10 days to an 80-day supply.

World coarse grain exports are expected to be down 190 million bushels compared to October estimates. The import estimate for China is unchanged at 118 million bushels.

Gasoline and ethanol consumption is up one percent compared to last year, and ethanol production is about 4 percent above last year. It would take about 5.2 billion bushels of corn to produce that much ethanol. USDA lowered its corn for fuel in the WASDE from 5.25 billion bushels last month to 5.175 billion. However, the fuel, seed, industrial category for sorghum is up 85 million bushels. That amount of grain sorghum would produce enough ethanol to replace what was cut from corn.

For my 2015 corn marketing plan, I completed all sales of the 2015 crop at harvest and am now preparing my marketing plan for 2016. I will again break up sales over four pre-harvest time periods with the final 20 percent at harvest. Early budget projections show a breakeven price of corn of $4.13 and $4.08 for grain sorghum. CS

POINTERS ■■ Ending-stock estimate is up, sending the price lower.

■■ Currently, a five-cent PLC payment is predicted.

■■ Early budget projections are for a break-even price.

Source: Mark Welch, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Economist. The opinions and recommendations expressed are solely those of the author and are intended for education purposes only. The university assumes no liability for use of this information.

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