Corn South November 2018

Corn Hybrid Preview

CornSouth ONE GROWER PUBLISHING, LLC

Southern Production & Marketing Strategies

A Supplement to Cotton Farming and The Peanut Grower Magazines

November 2018

CornSouth Expect Higher Input Costs International trade is a critical part of the agriculture industry, but U.S. producers have become an unwitting subject in the recent trade-off of tariff increases between China and the United States.

Because of that, University of Arkansas Division Amanda Huber of Agriculture Extension Editor economist, Scott Stiles is keeping producers up to date on input prices that could affect crop selection for next year.

“Urea prices at New Orleans (NOLA) continue to rise, finishing last week at an average price of $316 per ton,” Stiles says. “Barge urea prices have now increased for ten (10) straight weeks at the Gulf. The last time Gulf urea was above $300 was in June 2015. Urea prices in the NOLA region are up $90 per ton or 40 percent compared to the same week a year ago.”

According to Stiles, several factors are combining to drive urea prices higher, including that it is likely less supply from China will be available following the latest round of U.S. tariffs that went into effect in September.

“Virtually all types of fertilizer exports will be subject to the initial 10 percent tariff rate, which later increases to 25 percent on Jan. 1, 2019,” he says.

The U.S. tariffs list on Chinese goods include urea, ammonium sulphate (AS), ammonium nitrate (AN), urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), diammonium phosphate (DAP), or monoammonium phosphate (MAP).

Higher energy prices are another factor that Stiles says increases urea manufacturing and transportation costs.

“West Texas Intermediate crude oil is currently trading near $75 per barrel; the highest since November 2014. Announced sanctions on Iran and the inability of the OPEC cartel to produce more oil are both factors that have supported energy prices in recent months. Iran is also a producer and exporter of urea fertilizer,” he says.

Despite these prices for fertilizer elements, Stiles says the forecasts are for corn, wheat, cotton and rice to all gain acres in 2019. Corn acres in the United States are anticipated to increase 4.4 percent next year, which is nearly 4 million acres. Soybeans are expected to be down several million acres next year.

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CORN SOUTH | NOVEMBER 2018

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Market Factors

s planning for planting 2019 begins in earnest, Mark Welch, Texas A&M Ag Extension Economist, offers the following Market Grain Outlook report.

Grain Stocks

The most recent crop progress report showed no changes to the condition ratings of the U.S. corn crop. The good and excellent categories combine for 69 percent of the crop as the season winds down. The crop condition index score is 375 compared to a normal reading of 361.

October is spring planting season in the Southern Hemisphere. Corn, sorghum and soybeans are going in from Argentina and Brazil to South Africa to Australia. The GEOGLAM crop monitor for October shows planting conditions are generally favorable in Argentina for spring planting as well as southern Brazil. Dry conditions exist further north in Brazil which had an impact on the just completed summer crop harvest.

South Africa’s corn growing area is under generally favorable early season conditions. In Australia, it is dry in the east where the bulk of that country’s grain sorghum production takes place.

The report notes that if the El Nino event does materialize, above-normal rain is expected for southeastern South America.

Drier than normal conditions would be expected for Southern Africa and Australia.

Grain Use

Export sales for the first month of the new crop marketing year continue strong for corn and weak for grain sorghum.

Sales commitments for corn of 776 million bushels are 32 percent of the current USDA marketing year target. The average sales total at the end of September is 33 percent. Last week’s sales were 56 million bushels, ahead of the 34 million-bushel weekly pace needed to hit the target.

Market Overview:

 Sales strong for corn  Planting begins in Southern Hemisphere  Moderate rebound of prices expected through year-end Grain sorghum export sales are flat.

The total sales commitment so far this marketing year is 3 million bushels.

Outside Markets

The September jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the unemployment rate in the United States dropping to its lowest level since the late 1960s. The jobs number (+134,000) was below expectations and below the most recent six-month average (207,000) but the size of the workforce went up (+150,000) and the numbers of unemployed went down (-270,000). The unemployment rate was 3.7 percent, down from 3.9 percent in August.

Report revisions resulted in another 87,000 jobs added for those two months.

The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.7 percent. The broader measure of unemployment, which accounts for persons working part-time but seeking full-time positions, was 7.5 percent, up from 7.4 percent last month. These are the lowest numbers since early 2000.

Marketing Strategies

The seasonal price pattern for the December corn contract shows that prices have some upward momentum early in the year then drop below average about July. A moderate rebound off the seasonal low is expected this time of year.

My pre-harvest sales remain at 50 percent of anticipated production for 2018. I do not see considerable downside risk at this point and will delay making additional sales, likely now at harvest. CS

Corn South: Covering Southern Corn Production Corn South is a supplement to the Mid-South and Southeast versions of Cotton Farming magazine and to The Peanut Grower magazine for producers in Florida, Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi.

To receive Corn South, visit www.CornSouth.com and click on “Subscribe to Corn South.”

Send comments to Corn South, 875 W. Poplar Ave., Suite 23, Box 305, Collierville, TN 38017.

You may also call 901-767-4020 or contact Lia Guthrie at lguthrie@onegrower.com or Amanda Huber at ahuber@onegrower.com.

CORNSOUTH.COM

2019 Corn Hybrids Corn South presents a partial listing of corn hybrids suited for the Southern growing region.

For a more complete listing, contact your seed representative.

DEKALB DKC62-05 Brand (RM 112) • A great refuge option in proven genetics • Good late-season standability and adapted to most acres DKC62-08 Brand (RM 112) • Versatile product with top-end yield potential • Very good stalks, roots and drought tolerance • Nice dry down and test weight • Proven performer DKC64-35 Brand (RM 114) • Disease Shield product, with excellent foliar disease tolerance and staygreen • Very good stalk and root strength • Excellent Southern Rust tolerance • Excellent grain quality with a somewhat open husk type DKC65-20 Brand (RM 115) • Shorter plant stature with a broad canopy • Has shown impressive standability • Very good staygreen and intactness • Strong drought tolerance DKC66-75 Brand (RM 116) • Disease Shield product, with excellent foliar disease tolerance • Strong performance at high yield levels

• A tall hybrid that has shown good standability DKC66-97 Brand (RM 116) • Best suited to use in irrigated environments • Strong stalks and roots • Has been a stable performer • Very good late-season plant integrity DKC67-44 Brand (RM 117) • Can perform in low- and high-yield environments • Nice ear flex and grain quality • Very strong drought tolerance DKC67-72 Brand (RM 117) • Has shown great consistency across environments • Strong heat and drought tolerance • Good greensnap tolerance • Has shown great standability DKC68-26 Brand (RM 118) • Good Goss’s Wilt tolerance • Very good performance in irrigated environments • Taller stature with good greensnap tolerance • Good husk coverage with girthy, flex type ears DKC70-27 Brand (RM 120) • Disease Shield product, with excellent foliar disease tolerance

• Strong performance in dryland or irrigated environments • Full-season performance leader • Very good grain quality

Local Seed LC0877 (RM 108) • New exciting genetics with high yield potential • Outstanding early season performance • Excels under high management • Phenomenal southern movement LC1289 (RM 112) • New hybrid with excellent test weight • Outstanding early season performance • Stalks and roots are a plus • Responds well to high management LC1436 (RM 114) • Great early vigor, suitable for early planting and no-till • Excellent candidate for a fungicide and early harvest • Widely adapted and proven hybrid that handles most soil types and dry land environments LC1586 (RM 115) • New trecepta hybrid providing broad spectrum control of lepidopteran insects • Widely adapted across soil types and environments • Taller plant type with outstanding standability LC1577 (RM 115) • New for 2018 with excellent internal testing • Great early vigor suitable for early planting and no-till • Semi-flex ear but responds to plant populations and management under irrigation LC1776 (RM 117) • Very nice, proven 117-day hybrid • Can cover wide rows and suitable for most soil types and production practices • Very good drought tolerance and semiflex ears but does respond to management and irrigation LC1878 (RM 118) • New hybrid with high yield potential • Tall and robust plant with high ear placement and excellent plant health • Excellent agronomic package and early seedling vigor • Great fit for all soil types and management styles LC1987 (RM 119) • New full-season hybrid suited for multiple

TWITTER: @CORN_SOUTH

NOVEMBER 2018 | CORN SOUTH

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2019 Corn Hybrids environments • Excellent disease package with lateseason plant health and standability • Excellent grain quality with heavy test weight with yield

NK Corn

NK1444 (RM 114) • Superior stress tolerance for consistent top-end yields • Very strong stalk strength enhances late-season plant intactness • Yields well in high-disease environments • Ear flex allows for normal to below normal planting populations

NK0821 (RM 108) – New • Maximizes yield when it rains, increases yield when it doesn’t • Outstanding stalks and very good roots for season-long standability • Very strong emergence allows for early planting • Good ear flex provides population flexibility

NK1573 (RM 115) • Strong agronomics with stable yield performance • Population driven for top-end performance • Very good root and stalk strength for harvest flexibility • Dependable staygreen to help maximize yield potential

NK1066 (RM 110) • Exceptional choice for variable soil types • Strong foliar disease package to maximize yield potential • Excellent dry down and very good grain quality • Excels on medium- to coarse-texture soils

NK1694 (RM 116) • Superior yield potential and broadly adapted • Well-adapted to drought-prone soils • Yields well in high-disease environments, despite average gray leaf spot resistance • Stable plant and ear height across rolling stress environments

NK1263 (RM 112) • Top yields with Agrisure Artesian technology • Maximizes yield when it rains, increases yield when it doesn’t • Strong emergence and seedling vigor for early planting • Very good to excellent performance in medium and coarse soils

NK1808 (RM 118) • Broadly adapted with a complete agronomic package • Strong choice for highly productive irrigated and dryland systems • Tall plant type with good stalks for improved standability • Great plant health and staygreen promotes late-season intactness

NK1354 (RM 113) – New • Excellent emergence and solid early vigor for a fast start • Solid disease package to protect top-end yield potential • Superb dry down for a quick harvest • Good ear flex provides population flexibility

REV Brand

NK1405 (RM 114) • Solid agronomics even under southern disease pressures • Strong stalks for normal to extended harvest dates • Superior stress tolerance and broad adaptability for southern environments • Flex ear type allows population adjustments as needed by environment NK1433 (RM 114) • Minimizes weather risks with great performance in stress environments • Ear flex provides population flexibility • Superb seedling vigor for a strong start • Sound agronomics allows for broad adaptability

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CORN SOUTH | NOVEMBER 2018

REV 17BHR98 Brand • Early Mid-South and Deep-South option • Compact plant type with good ear placement • Upright leaf structure well-suited for twin row or narrow row applications REV 24BHR99 Brand • More compact plant type • Very solid all-around agronomic characteristics • Handles increased plant populations well • Very responsive to increased inputs REV 25BHR26 Brand REV 25R27 Brand REV 25LPR26 Brand REV 25XTR26 Brand • Medium plant and ear height • Works well across a wide variety of soil types • Very good grain quality • Very good ear flex • Silage potential

REV 25BHR89 Brand REV 25LPR89 Brand • Robust plant with excellent southern adaptation • Very stable across soil types • Deep, toothy grain with very good test weight REV 27BHR79 Brand REV 27LPR79 Brand • Excellent test weight • Very good ear flex • Large plant type well suited for wider rows • Best placed on productive soil types after crop rotation REV 28BHR18 Brand • Good mix of yield potential and stress tolerance • Very good ear flex • Aggressive early growth for rapid canopy closure • Large plant type well suited for wider rows REV 2616PWE Brand • Best performance across the southern Corn Belt • Best in areas with low greensnap potential • Avoid poorly drained soils • Good response to a fungicide treatment • Responds to high management practices and favorable environments • Avoid fields with a history of Goss’s wilt • Best in rotation or when rotating to cornfields without corn rootworm pressure REV 2858SXE Brand • Positive yield response to a moderate increase in plant population • Avoid poorly drained soils • Responds to high management practices and favorable environments • Positive yield response with a fungicide application REV 26BHR58 Brand • Very high Deep South yield potential • Very responsive to irrigation and other inputs • Tall plant with medium-high ear placement • Best placed on more productive soil types after crop rotation

For additional information:    

www.DEKALB.com/myseed www.LocalSeed.com www.NKCorn.com www.TerralSeed.com CORNSOUTH.COM