RC(C) assessment form

RC(C) Evaluation System Assessment form

Assessed item Title A war gone badly wrong: The war on terror ten years on

Author Paul Rogers

Organisation/publication Oxford Research Group

Date published 11 September 2011 URL http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/publications/middle_east/ war_gone_badly_wrong_war_terror_ten_years

Analyst Name Chris Abbott

Role Executive Director Organisation Open Briefing

Assessment Rating B2(H)

Notes Source known personally to the analyst (former colleague).

Date of assessment 11 September 2011

Code

Description

Criteria

Assessment

Reliability of source, R A

Completely reliable

Source always provides highly credible (1, 2) information There are no known occasions when source has proved to be wrong Source is judged by assessor as always (>80%) reliable

B

Usually reliable

Source usually provides credible (1, 2, 3) information Source has rarely proved to be wrong Source is judged by assessor as usually (60-80%) reliable

C

Fairly reliable

Source often provides credible (1, 2, 3) information Source has occasionally proved to be wrong Source is judged by assessor as fairly (40-60%) reliable

D

Not usually reliable

Source often provides improbable (4, 5) information Source has often proved to be wrong Source is judged by assessor as often (20-40%) unreliable

E

Unreliable

Source usually provides improbable (4, 5) information There are numerous occasions when source has proved to be wrong Source is judged by assessor as always (<20%) unreliable

F

Reliability cannot be judged

Conflicting or inadequate information available

X

Credibility of information, C 1

Confirmed by other source

Information has been confirmed by at least one other highly reliable (A, B) source Information has not been refuted by any other reliable (A, B, C) sources Information is judged by assessor as highly likely (>80%) to be true

2

Probably true

Information has been confirmed by at least one other reliable (A, B, C) source Information has not been refuted by any other highly reliable (A, B) sources Information is judged by assessor as likely (60-80%) to be true

3

Possibly true

Information has not been confirmed by any other reliable (A, B, C) sources Information has not been refuted by any other reliable (A, B, C) sources Information is judged by assessor as possibly (40-60%) true

4

Doubtful

Information has not been confirmed by any other highly reliable sources (A, B) Information has been refuted by at least one other reliable (A, B, C) source Information is judged by assessor as unlikely (20-40%) to be true

5

Improbable

Information has not been confirmed by any other reliable sources (A, B, C) Information has been refuted by at least one other highly reliable (A, B) source Information is judged by assessor as highly unlikely (<20%) to be true

6

Truth cannot be judged

Conflicting or inadequate information available

X

Confidence in assessment, (C) H

High confidence

Criteria for both reliability and credibility have been confidently met Assessor is highly confident (>80%) in the overall rating

M

Moderate confidence

Criteria for either reliability or credibility have been confidently met Assessor is at least reasonably confident (40-60%) in the overall rating

L

Low confidence

Criteria for neither reliability nor credibility have been confidently met Assessor is not confident (<20%) in the overall rating

X