RC(C) Evaluation System Assessment form
Assessed item Title A war gone badly wrong: The war on terror ten years on
Author Paul Rogers
Organisation/publication Oxford Research Group
Date published 11 September 2011 URL http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/publications/middle_east/ war_gone_badly_wrong_war_terror_ten_years
Analyst Name Chris Abbott
Role Executive Director Organisation Open Briefing
Assessment Rating B2(H)
Notes Source known personally to the analyst (former colleague).
Date of assessment 11 September 2011
Code
Description
Criteria
Assessment
Reliability of source, R A
Completely reliable
Source always provides highly credible (1, 2) information There are no known occasions when source has proved to be wrong Source is judged by assessor as always (>80%) reliable
B
Usually reliable
Source usually provides credible (1, 2, 3) information Source has rarely proved to be wrong Source is judged by assessor as usually (60-80%) reliable
C
Fairly reliable
Source often provides credible (1, 2, 3) information Source has occasionally proved to be wrong Source is judged by assessor as fairly (40-60%) reliable
D
Not usually reliable
Source often provides improbable (4, 5) information Source has often proved to be wrong Source is judged by assessor as often (20-40%) unreliable
E
Unreliable
Source usually provides improbable (4, 5) information There are numerous occasions when source has proved to be wrong Source is judged by assessor as always (<20%) unreliable
F
Reliability cannot be judged
Conflicting or inadequate information available
X
Credibility of information, C 1
Confirmed by other source
Information has been confirmed by at least one other highly reliable (A, B) source Information has not been refuted by any other reliable (A, B, C) sources Information is judged by assessor as highly likely (>80%) to be true
2
Probably true
Information has been confirmed by at least one other reliable (A, B, C) source Information has not been refuted by any other highly reliable (A, B) sources Information is judged by assessor as likely (60-80%) to be true
3
Possibly true
Information has not been confirmed by any other reliable (A, B, C) sources Information has not been refuted by any other reliable (A, B, C) sources Information is judged by assessor as possibly (40-60%) true
4
Doubtful
Information has not been confirmed by any other highly reliable sources (A, B) Information has been refuted by at least one other reliable (A, B, C) source Information is judged by assessor as unlikely (20-40%) to be true
5
Improbable
Information has not been confirmed by any other reliable sources (A, B, C) Information has been refuted by at least one other highly reliable (A, B) source Information is judged by assessor as highly unlikely (<20%) to be true
6
Truth cannot be judged
Conflicting or inadequate information available
X
Confidence in assessment, (C) H
High confidence
Criteria for both reliability and credibility have been confidently met Assessor is highly confident (>80%) in the overall rating
M
Moderate confidence
Criteria for either reliability or credibility have been confidently met Assessor is at least reasonably confident (40-60%) in the overall rating
L
Low confidence
Criteria for neither reliability nor credibility have been confidently met Assessor is not confident (<20%) in the overall rating
X