Y2 Q1 - Quarterly evaluation report (October-December 2012)

Quarterly evaluation report Y2Q3: October-December 2012

Highlights • In the three months from October to December 2012, Open Briefing published 16 intelligence briefs, articles and dossiers; made a significant intervention in a key peace and security debate; and responded to six intelligence requests from civil society organisations.

• The number of website visitors was significantly up on the previous quarter and our online influence score increased.

• We were awarded a £5,000 grant from the Marmot Charitable Trust.

• Overall, progress was made on nine out of 11 objectives, despite only being the first quarter of stage 2.

• During this quarter we also completed a thorough evaluation of stage 1, updated and revamped the website and launched the new Conflict and diplomacy intelligence desk, the Open Briefing consultancy and a community department.

Table 1. Summary of progress achieved to date against each stage 2 objective.

Objective Respond to 100 intelligence requirements from civil society organisations Make six significant interventions in key peace and security debates Attain 3,000 subscribers in total Attract 4,000 unique visitors a month to the Open Briefing website

% achieved 6%

17% 29% 65%

Receive 12 media mentions

0%

Achieve an average online influence score of 60/100

73%

File 1,000 items under the regional and issue intelligence desks

30%

Publish 90 Open Briefing publications

18%

Expand the team to 35 members in total

66%

Raise £190,000

6%

Generate 9.5% of income from sources other than trusts and foundations

26% Open Briefing | 1

1. Respond to 100 intelligence requirements from civil society organisations Open Briefing has responded to six intelligence requests from civil society organisations (6% of target).

These related to: • Turkish policy towards Syria.

• Financial relief to Sudan.

• Developments at the Parchin military complex, Iran.

• A US freelance journalist kidnapped in Syria.

• Probability of Israeli military strikes against Iran.

• Possible roles of the United States and United Kingdom in strikes against Iran.

2. Make six significant interventions in key peace and security debates Open Briefing has made one significant intervention in a key security debate (17% of target).

In contrast to many pundits and analysts, our analysis of the probability of Israeli strikes against Iran in the six months following the US presidential election concluded that this eventuality was highly unlikely between the US presidential elections in November 2012 and the Israeli elections in January 2013, and unlikely between January and the Iranian presidential elections in June 2013. Our intelligence briefing feed into the policy planning of the commissioning NGO, a leading international non-profit. It was also picked up in Iran and partially translated into Persian by the Ahmadinejad-linked Jebhe Paydari (Steadfast Front) political group and the Revolutionary Guard-linked Sobhe Sadegh newspaper.

3. Attain 3,000 subscribers in total Open Briefing has a total of 862 subscribers to its e-bulletin, social networks, podcast and other outputs (29% of target). This is up from 684 subscribers at the end of the last quarter. Twitter currently has the most subscribers (284), followed by our e-bulletin (243).

1000 900 800 700 600 500

2012-13

400

2011-12

300 200 100 0 Oct 12

Nov 12

Dec 12

Figure 1. Number of subscribers to the Open Briefing e-bulletin, social networks, podcast and other outputs.

Open Briefing | 2

4. Attract 4,000 unique visitors a month to the Open Briefing website There were an average 2,606 unique visitors to the Open Briefing website during this quarter (65% of target). This is up from an average 2,000 visitors during the previous quarter.

It is suspected that the relatively low number of visitors during December 2012 was an anomaly due to the holiday season.

4000 3500 3000 2500 2000

Visitors

1500

Visits

1000 500 0 Oct 12

Nov 12

Dec 12

Figure 2. Number of unique visitors and visits to the Open Briefing website.

5. Receive 12 media mentions Open Briefing did not receive any media mentions during this quarter, though our Africa analyst, Lawrence Gitonga Mwongera, was featured in an America Abroad Media radio documentary discussing a radical Islamist secessionist group in Kenya.

6. Achieve an average online influence score of 60/100 Open Briefing uses a basket of online influence metrics (Klout, Kred and PeerIndex) to measure social media influence and Google PageRank to measure relative website importance. Using these, our average online influence score across this quarter was 44/100 (73% of target), including a Google PageRank of 5/10. This is an increase on the 42/100 achieved during the previous quarter.

60 50 40 30

Average score

20 10 0 Oct 12

Nov 12

Dec 12

Figure 3. Open Briefing's average online influence score.

Open Briefing | 3

7. File 1,000 items under the regional and issue intelligence desks The Open Briefing intelligence desks have filed 289 items to date (30% of target).

The graph below gives an indication of the relative priority given so far to each desk. The political violence and dissent desk and resource security and climate change desk filed the most items of the issue desks, and the Middle East desk and Asia and Pacific desk filed the most items of the regional desks. Note that the Conflict and Diplomacy desk was only launched at the start of this quarter, which accounts for the low number of items filed so far.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Political violence and dissent Resource security and climate change Nuclear issues UK national security Conflict and diplomacy Middle East Asia and Pacific Africa Americas Europe Polar regions

Figure 4. Number of items filed under each Open Briefing intelligence desk.

8. Publish 90 Open Briefing publications Open Briefing published 16 original publications during this quarter, including nine intelligence briefs, five articles and two dossiers (18% of target). We also published four Middle East intelligence digests.

9. Expand the team to 35 members in total There are currently 23 members of the Open Briefing team, including staff, volunteers and advisers (66% of target). Interviews for new contributing analyst and associate researchers to join our team will be held during the next quarter.

10. Raise £190,000 Open Briefing has raised £12,310 towards our 2012-15 budget (6% of target). This includes a £7,000 surplus from stage 1, a £5,000 grant from the Marmot Charitable Trust and £310 in public donations. We are still awaiting the outcome of grant applications totalling £133,730 over three years.

11. Generate 9.5% of income from sources other than trusts and foundations During this quarter, 2.5% of our income came from non-grant sources (26% of target).

Chris Abbott, Founder & Executive Director 15 January 2013 Open Briefing | 4