Y2 Q3 - Quarterly evaluation report (April-June 2013)

Quarterly evaluation report Y2Q3: April-June 2013

Highlights •

Open Briefing was awarded a grant of £30,000 over three years by the Polden-Puckham Charitable Foundation.

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We secured our second consultancy client, with a contract worth £2,125.

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We published 11 original publications – the most in any quarter since our launch.

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The team has expanded to 26 members and several of our intelligence desks are now fully operational.

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Open Briefing’s online influence score continued to steadily increase.

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Overall, progress was made on seven out of 11 objectives.

Table 1. Summary of progress achieved to date against each stage 2 objective.

% of target

Progress over

achieved

last quarter

16%

▲

17%

-

41%

▲

54%

▼

0%

-

80%

▲

35%

▲

Publish 90 Open Briefing publications

32%

▲

Expand the team to 35 members in total

74%

▲

Raise £190,000

29%

▲

15%

-

Objective Respond to 100 intelligence requirements from civil society organisations Make six significant interventions in key peace and security debates Attain 3,000 subscribers in total Attract 4,000 unique visitors a month to the Open Briefing website Receive 12 media mentions Achieve an average online influence score of 60/100 File 1,000 items under the regional and issue intelligence desks

Generate 9.5% of income from sources other than trusts and foundations

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1. Respond to 100 intelligence requirements from civil society organisations Open Briefing has so far responded to 16 intelligence requests from civil society organisations during stage 2 (16% of target). Six of these was during this quarter and came from Crisis Action and Savannah Wisdom.

2. Make six significant interventions in key peace and security debates Open Briefing has so far made one significant intervention in a key security debate during stage 2 (17% of target). This was during the previous quarter.

3. Attain 3,000 subscribers in total Open Briefing has a total of 1,233 subscribers to its e-bulletin, social networks, podcast and other outputs (41% of target). This is up from 862 subscribers at the end of the last quarter. Our e-bulletin now has the most subscribers (416), followed by Twitter (373).

1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

2012-13 2011-12

Oct 12

Nov 12

Dec 12

Jan 13

Feb 13

Mar 13

Apr 13

May 13

Jun 13

Figure 1. Number of subscribers to the Open Briefing e-bulletin, social networks, podcast and other outputs.

4. Attract 4,000 unique visitors a month to the Open Briefing website There were an average 1,869 unique monthly visitors to the Open Briefing website during this quarter; down from an average 2,019 visitors during the previous quarter. The average unique monthly visitors over stage 2 so far is 2,165 (58% of target).

These numbers are lower than hoped for and this was the second quarter in a row that numbers have dropped. The cause of this is still unclear but it may be that users are accessing our material through other means – such as through our social networks and mobile app (as evidenced by the steadily increasing numbers of subscribers and our good online influence score). It is hoped that efforts to increase our public profile over the next quarter will increase the number of visitors to our website once more.

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4000 3500 3000 2500 2000

Visitors

1500

Visits

1000 500 0 Oct 12

Nov 12

Dec 12

Jan 13

Feb 13

Mar 13

Apr 13

May 13

Jun 13

Figure 2. Number of unique visitors and visits to the Open Briefing website.

5. Receive 12 media mentions Open Briefing did not receive any media mentions during this quarter.

6. Achieve an average online influence score of 60/100 Open Briefing uses a basket of online influence metrics (Klout, Kred and PeerIndex) to measure social media influence and Google PageRank to measure relative website importance. Using these, our average online influence score across this quarter was 47/100, including a Google PageRank of 5/10. This is an increase on the 45/100 achieved during the previous quarter.

Our current online influence score is 48/100 (80% of target).

60 50 40 30

Average score

20 10 0 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Figure 3. Open Briefing's average online influence score.

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7. File 1,000 items under the regional and issue intelligence desks The Open Briefing intelligence desks have filed 354 items to date (35% of target).

The graph below gives an indication of the relative priority given so far to each desk. The political violence and dissent desk and resource security and climate change desk have filed the most items of the issue desks, and the Middle East desk and Asia and Pacific desk have filed the most items of the regional desks.

Greater attention needs to be given to the UK national security, Europe and Polar regions desks (the Conflict and diplomacy desk was only launched at the start of stage 2, which accounts for the relatively low number of items filed by that desk to date).

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Political violence and dissent Resource security and climate change Nuclear issues Conflict and diplomacy UK national security Middle East Asia and Pacific Africa Americas Europe Polar regions

Figure 4. Number of items filed under each Open Briefing intelligence desk.

8. Publish 90 Open Briefing publications Open Briefing published 11 briefing papers, intelligence briefs and articles during this quarter. The issues covered were: •

Corruption in the pharmaceutical supply chain to the developing world.

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Russia’s new Arctic brigades.

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The election of Hassan Rouhani to the Iranian presidency.

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Iran’s outreach to Afghanistan and Tajikistan.

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Alternative South Sudan oil pipelines.

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Turkish policy towards Sudan.

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Egypt’s political and economic challenges.

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The Boston Marathon bombings.

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The need for assertive Israeli diplomacy.

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Special operations forces.

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Private military and security companies.

We have published 29 publications overall during stage 2 (32% of target).

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9. Expand the team to 35 members in total There are now 26 members of the Open Briefing team, including staff, volunteers and advisers (74% of target). An extensive recruitment programme has resulted in seven new analysts and researchers joining the team during this quarter. Consolidation means we said goodbye to four members of the team at the same time.

This means that the Asia & Pacific, Africa and Political violence and dissent desks are now fully operational (i.e. at least two analysts and a researcher), with plans to make the Middle East, UK national security and Conflict and diplomacy desks fully operational shortly.

10. Raise £190,000 Open Briefing has raised £55,250 towards our 2012-15 budget (29% of target). This includes a £7,000 surplus from stage 1, £47,500 in grants, £310 in public donations and £440 profit from consultancy work.

During this quarter we were awarded a grant of £30,000 over three years (£10,000 a year) by the PoldenPuckham Charitable Foundation and secured a consultancy contract worth £2,125.

11. Generate 9.5% of income from sources other than trusts and foundations 1.4% of our income over stage 2 has so far come from non-grant sources (15% of target).

Summary of planned work •

Detailed order of battle for Russian ground forces.

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Briefing paper on Russian ground forces.

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Briefing paper on latest climate science.

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Intelligence brief on food security in Iran.

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Forecasts for insecurity and conflict in Africa.

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Intelligence analysis handbook.

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Open source intelligence training courses.

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Open Briefing style guide.

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Updated Open Briefing app.

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Links with private sector intelligence and risk companies.

Chris Abbott, Founder & Executive Director 3 July 2013

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