The KM Update is an occasional publication of Opportunity Knowledge Management that presents a sampling of Opportunity learnings across various programs. Returning after a pandemic-driven pause, this issue provides a review with more to come.
Opportunity’s Roots of Change Program (2018-2021) targeted female farmers in northern Ghana and the DRC. The program evaluations, which captured sample client data at baseline and endline, indicate strong outcomes for women farmers and the community (see Figure 1):
X The majority of women borrowers increased yields (75%), income (73%), and wellbeing (70%).
X 83% of women improved farms and business.
X 88% of women experienced greater decision-making power and better relationships in their households.
X The loan clients sustained or created nearly 75,000 jobs.
The program addressed not only poor credit access, but also other barriers like social norms, limited agricultural knowledge, and limited technology knowledge. Women received training in financial literacy, digital finance tools, agricultural practices, business development, and marketing. In addition, Roots of Change raised gender awareness through radio campaigns and training at various community, institutional, family, and personal levels. The program’s outreach target was exceeded, with 12,259 women accessing loans against a target of 8,000. ♦
African women face barriers in rural economies, impacting their families’ economic lives. Without women’s full participation, Africa, a potential “breadbasket,” remains a net food importer, with many farmers living in poverty. Women, making up half of the farmers, produce significantly less than men. Equal resource access could boost their production by 30%, contributing to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to empower women, end hunger, and end poverty.
Opportunity’s Education Finance Program (EduFinance) trains school leaders and teachers to improve learning outcomes for students. Four studies conducted between 2020 and 2024 demonstrate how improvements in school quality and teaching practices contribute to enhanced student learning.
The vast majority of schools (83%) have improved quality over a 2-year period, based on the “Improvement in Education Quality” data analysis. The overall self-assessment score increased from 2.3 (out of 4) at baseline to 3.1. Improvements occurred in the following areas:
X School Culture: 79.6% of schools improved, with an average score increase from 2.2 to 3. This includes behavior management, improved by 69% of schools, parent/community engagement (65% of schools), and child protection (61% of schools).
X School Management: 79.2% of schools improved, with an average score increase from 2.2 to 3.0. This includes finance and business management (62% of schools), school leadership and government (62% of schools), and teacher development and oversight (62% of schools).
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• “Improvements in Education Quality: 3 Year School Quality Self-Assessment” Data from partner school self-assessments from over 1,000 schools in 6 countries, over a 2-year period, completed in 2024.
• “Classroom Observations Endline Research” Data from detailed observations in 628 classrooms, in 6 countries over three years, completed in 2023.
• “Opportunity EduFinance Impact on Learning Outcomes” Data from a 3-year, quasi-experimental study in Kenya comparing student learning outcomes from 131 EduFinance participating schools with 70 comparison schools, completed in 2024.
• “School Improvement Loans Linked to Increased Learning Outcomes in Uganda” A comparison of the 2022 national test scores of 77 borrowing primary schools with those of 9,580 schools in Uganda between 2010 and 2019.
X Teaching and Learning: 77% improved, with an average score increase from 2.4 to 3.2. This includes teaching and learning resources (64% of schools), assessment of learning (62% of schools), and learning-centered teaching and learning (61% of schools).
EduFinance training has contributed to improvements in classroom teaching practices overall, according to a more in-depth study, “Classroom Observation Endline Research.” Key findings include:
X Over half of schools (59%) improved teaching practices over a three-year period, improving their average teaching practice scores by 47%-75%.
X The percentage of average scores below 55% has come down substantially, from 33.8% of classrooms at baseline to 20.9% at endline.
The key areas of improvement include setting expectations for learning, positioning the lesson in the curricula, making real-life connections to the lesson topic, and scoring techniques.
These improvements in EduFinance’s school culture, management, and teaching practices – combined with investment from loans – contributed to positive student learning outcomes, based on the quasi-experimental study in Kenya. Students in supported schools gained as much as half a year equivalent of additional schooling, according to the study. Further, students from lower socioeconomic backgrounds and girls experienced larger learning gains. For example, in English literacy, students coming from lower socioeconomic backgrounds gained the most from the EduQuality intervention – gaining the equivalent of 0.53 years of school more than their peers during the study period. In addition, girls gained the equivalent of 0.47 years of additional English literacy schooling. In Mathematics, the gains were more equal with students in general gaining an additional 0.24 years of learning (see Table 1).
These findings reinforce data from an earlier study in Uganda indicating that EduFinance schools receiving loans are improving national test scores, compared with schools not affiliated with EduFinance. Among
EduFinance borrowing schools, compared to the rest of Ugandan schools.
X Student test scores were, on average, 1.09 points better, which is 7.24 percentage points.
X 3.5% more students achieved Division 1, the highest scoring category.
X 9.5% more students achieved Division 2, the second highest scoring category.
The percentage of students who did not take the exam did not change significantly. ♦
In 2023, members of Opportunity-supported Savings Groups in Colombia gained economic, social, and financial education benefits from their participation, according to an in-house survey of 165 Savings Group clients conducted by AGAPE, Opportunity’s partner. The survey indicates that participating in Savings Groups has helped individuals develop better financial habits and provide some financial stability. For example, the portion of clients able to save increased from 59% before joining to 99% after joining a Savings Group. Easy access to loans increased from 2% of members to 22% of members. Income levels were not necessarily affected across the board, but 44% of clients stated that they had enhanced incomes after participating
in the group. In terms of social benefits, the data indicates that Savings Group participation positively affected member community engagement. Almost all members reported increased confidence and involvement in family decisionmaking. Finally, in terms of financial education, the trainings were valued by participants as very, or extremely, valuable (82%), and all expressed interest in attending additional Opportunity trainings (see Tables 2 and 3). Members used their savings to meet family needs, invest in income generation, and make home improvements, a further demonstration of improved well-being from Savings Group participation. The research demonstrates that Savings Groups are an effective tool for individuals to learn how to save and access informal loans for various purposes, to strengthen their social lives, and enhance their financial knowledge. ♦
Table 3: Incomes/Agency Outcomes from Participation (from Endline Data)
Opportunity has developed a unique, holistic development training program entitled Pathways to Wellbeing (Pathways) – a training that conscientizes participants to the different areas where they and their households can develop. The topics, which are based on the principles of Shalom, include personal, financial, family, community, and environmental well-being. This practical training is delivered using bestpractice adult-learning principles and is based on real-life stories, delivered through videos and photos.
Opportunity Knowledge Management (KM) co-created the curricula, managed the program, built partner capacity for implementing the program and training trainers, and facilitated peer-to-peer learning. The training was pilot tested in Malawi, Ghana, and Colombia. The partners – Opportunity International Savings and Loans (OISL) in Ghana, Opportunity International Malawi (OIM), and Opportunity International Colombia (FOIC) – piloted the training in different institutional
settings – microfinance institutions, savings groups, and churches – from 2022-23.
Pathways Program Findings include—
X Training Tested: 9,142 participants (81% women) were trained in 2 modules.
X Program Implementation Context: The warm reception by savings groups and churches showed promise for further use by them and by Ultra Poor Graduation programs (UPG). Success in the microfinance context required strong leadership commitment.
X Participant Outcomes: The satisfaction rate was 100% in both Malawi and Colombia.
Client Outcomes (Malawi and Colombia): Across a wide range of life aspects, outcomes indicators showed positive changes in values, knowledge, and behavior (see Table 4). (Categories differ as country teams were given freedom to test different modules.) ♦
After training, more clients—
• Practiced hope, improving their well-being
• Set goals and took steps to reach them
• Saved to reach goals
• Prepared themselves financially for emergencies
• Had a mobile money account
• Felt financially secure
• Made household decisions independently
After training, more clients—
• Felt a greater sense of self-worth
• Practiced hope and improved their wellbeing
• Greater ability to push forward amidst challenges 23% → 33%
• Set goals and took steps to reach their goals
• Felt worthy, hopeful and resilient
• Able to construct healthy relationships in their families
• Divided household work equally btw men/women in family
• Managed emotions, contributing to peace in family
• Families faced and resolved problems together
• Felt their families were becoming strong and healthy
Over the last two years, Opportunity has enhanced client measurement and reporting of client outcomes and impact using two key mechanisms.
First, Opportunity has developed a formal Theory of Change (TOC) to organize objectives and indicators into a logical causal model so that stakeholders can visualize how program activities lead to client outcomes and impact (see diagram below).
X For example, one of Opportunity’s core activities is mobilizing finance – which is part of all core programs – and leads to an enabling outcome: clients having more financial resources like income and assets.
X This, in turn, makes people more resilient (an ultimate outcome), better able to manage risk and to flourish, ultimately contributing to Opportunity’s intended impact – to develop out of poverty towards sustainable livelihoods. In addition to contributing to this effort, KM worked with the programs to develop program-specific TOCs. These provide the basis for planning, ongoing decision-making, monitoring, evaluation, and improved reporting on outcomes and impact. Second, programs have sought to align data systems and research efforts to report on the TOC indicators or to prove the causal impact.
X The EduFinance program measured the extent to which its training activities are changing the behavior of school owners and teachers. They saw, for example, that parent engagement increased by 21 percentage points as did the use of lesson plans, and teaching practices improved in 59% of schools with average teaching scores increase between 47%-75%. Next, EduFinance measured changes in child learning to see how improved school management and teaching might be benefitting students. They found that students increased their learning in Mathemat-
ics and English by the equivalent of a quarter of a year of learning, with students from disadvanged backgrounds gaining over half a year in English. By enhancing their knowledge (an enabling outcome), students will have more career opportunities (an ultimate outcome) leading to their pathways out of poverty and into a sustainable livelihoods. Now that EduFinance has conducted some strong research to demonstrate progress along the TOC, their next focus is conducting a very rigorous study, a randomized control trial, to more definitively prove the links between the EduFinance program activities and enhanced learning.
X The AgFinance program, from 2023-24, carried out a series of client surveys to assess the effectiveness of their farmer training and agricultural finance work. Among other indicators, the survey captured changes in farm yields (an indicator of productivity at the enabling outcome level), and farmer income and assets (enabling outcomes of financial resources). The survey also assessed farmer resilience (an ultimate outcome), leading to pathways out of poverty and a sustainable livelihood.
X Opportunity Colombia tracked the Ultra-Poor Graduation program from activity to outcome. Serving 250 families, the program transferred productive assets to 244 of them (activity: mobilizing finance). Participants joined 16 savings groups and were encouraged to participate in community activities (activity: strengthening networks and groups support). After only ten months in the program, participants demonstrated outcomes. The savings groups mobilized USD 7,000 in assets (an enabling outcome), and 84% of clients participated in community spaces, demonstrating thriving connections (an enabling outcome). Finally, demonstrating resilience, families consuming more than two meals a day increased from 36% of participants to 51%, indicating that they are on a pathway out of poverty and toward sustainable livelihood. ♦
Over the years, Opportunity has continued its legacy of innovating in human-centered design to help us understand clients and respond to their needs.
X Client-developed video project evaluations. In Uganda, from 2019-2023, Opportunity implemented an innovative approach to raise client voices that merged participatory video production with an evaluation methodology that captured clients’ “most significant change.” These compelling videos that contributed to program evaluation and adjustments can be seen online for the “Financial Inclusion for Peoples with Disabilities” and the “Refugees: Innovation, Self-Reliance, and Empowerment” Programs.
X Training development that listens to client voices. Also in Uganda, in mid-2023, KM and AgFinance teamed up to conduct Holistic Community Assessment (HCA) among rural farmers. The HCA methodology is a qualitative methodology inspired by the vision of multidimensional flourishing found in the biblical concept of shalom – speaking of the enjoyment of one’s relationship with God, self, others, and nature – reflecting Opportunity’s belief that poverty is about more than just financial deficit. In this approach, researchers ask participants to share significant mini-stories from a recent period touching different
dimensions of their lives, supplemented by additional social and agricultural questions. Client input was then translated into recommendations for AgFinance’s regenerative agriculture training.
X Clients at the center of product/service development. Logic Initiated by Opportunity’s Digital Innovations Group (DIG), Opportunity also put in place a system for understanding and communicating our core client base across the organization through the use of “personas.” KM facilitated program teams to identify their typical client types and describe them in a standard template so that the same information is captured and communicated about Opportunity’s diverse client base. These personas can be used as a focal point for developing client-centric strategy and services, and for orienting all staff and board members to better understand our clients. DIG held an organization-wide “Ideas-Day” in which all Opportunity staff engaged in brainstorming artificial intelligence solutions for our client personas. DIG selected winning concepts and supported staff to develop these for sharing in mid-June 2023. Winners from that process will be selected for fundraising, and all can be assured that the concepts being put forward are based on a deep understanding of our clients. ♦
Three of Opportunity’s programs – AgFinance, EduFinance, and OI Colombia – with support from KM have now developed learning agendas to drive research and development forward, strengthening Opportunity as a learning organization. Opportunity programs have always conducted research and engaged in innovation. The formalized learning agendas provide greater visibility into this work, and catalyze program leaders to be ever more pro-active in this endeavor.
For example, a high priority for the EduFinance program is to measure child learning outcomes ever more rigorously. First, EduFinance assessed behavior change among school owners and teachers to see if they were improving school management and teaching practices. Next, the team conducted a quasi-experimental of child learning, and now EduFinance is planning the most rigorous type of impact study, a randomized control trial. While also engaging in client outcome measurement, the AgFinance program is focusing more on research to optimize operations, addressing questions such as: Is our training effective, appropriate and sufficient? And, how can we further help financial service providers make data-driven decisions? The Opportunity–Colombia program also has research planned in similar areas, but they are also looking to develop better ways to communicate the work to various audiences and to contribute findings to the broader industry through case studies.
The possibility of exploring community-supported Savings Group facilitators is also being discussed. In sum, this deeper research process contributes to Opportunity continuously learning how to innovate and enhance client impact. ♦
Table 5. Example: Opportunity-Colombia/AGAPE Learning Agenda
1 Outcomes/ Impact
2 Scale
3 Optimization
4 Partnerships
5 Innovation
What kind of impact are we having on clients, families, communities (quantitative, qualitative)?
How do we increase scale and manage cost?
How can we balance the need for quality and impact? What does realistic/optimal scale look like?
How can we measure the effectiveness of different program components – so we know what to deepen, what to drop?
How can we better connect to potential govt and NGO partners in Colombia – for services and for funding?
Can the Community Savings Group Agent be implemented in Colombia? How might this work?
Showing the impact of “microfinance plus.” From 2019 to 2024, Opportunity conducted a rigorous impact assessment using a randomized control trial (RCT) methodology with the goal of showing that high-quality “microfinance–plus–[complementary service]” programs have a positive impact on client income and assets.
Problems with the older (2015) studies. This was, in part, to check the conclusions raised by a widely-publicized set of 2015 RCT studies claiming that the impact of microfinance was negligible. Not only were such conclusions troubling, Opportunity analysis of these studies found substantial issues including— unusual and often very remote contexts; some weak implementing institutions with little experience in delivering microfinance; short time-frame of loan cycles; low take-up rates and control group contaminations; and – as we would eventually find out – insufficient statistical power (see text box).
Strong implementation partners. Three strong, microfinance-plus programs in three regions of the world were chosen.
X Uganda: Opportunity Bank of Uganda, Ltd (OBUL) implemented an agricultural finance program that included agricultural, financial, and holistic development training.
X Paraguay: Fundación Paraguaya (FP) offers group finance with the “plus” services of financial literacy training, coaching, and discount cards for supermarket purchases and health care, among other services.
X Myanmar: VisionFund implemented a group-based, microfinance program with training in rural areas that were typical of mainstream VisionFund work in Myanmar.
To try to create the right context, each organization stretched beyond their normal outreach areas. OBUL reached out to North Uganda, FP to more rural areas, and VFM to areas in the various districts that they had not yet covered.
Difficult Circumstances: Pandemic, Climate, Political Unrest. Unfortunately, multiple challenges struck as the study started. The pandemic significantly impacted each region. In addition, each area experienced unique challenges.
X Uganda challenges. The pandemic drained farmer savings limiting the collateral farmers could put up, minimizing loan sizes and lowering farmer risk tolerances. In addition to these and other government restrictions, the areas were hit with flooding, then locusts, and then two consecutive seasons of drought. With famine and even stories of deaths in villages, we could not justify keeping the study going and cancelled the study.
X Paraguay challenges. The pandemic and related restrictions forced trainings to be cancelled or to take place remotely, badly affecting client businesses and, most importantly, the business activities the loans were intended to support. Longer distances from the branches also limited the “plus” benefits that were part of the program. All this added up to lower loan demand, lower client retention, and lower loan amounts impacting statistical power.
X Myanmar challenges. Pandemic-related government restrictions had serious consequences here as well. In addi-
tion, a military coup created severe civil unrest through many of the regions bringing severe restrictions on VFM operations and hardship to its clients – where sometimes they had to escape the villages to set up camps to avoid violence. By Year 3, VFM had to stop disbursing loans. A significant portion of the control group also took loans.
Despite Challenges, Positive to Very Positive Impacts. These unforeseen challenges limited the possible impact or limited the statistical power due to lower sample size. Yet, despite these challenges, Paraguay and Myanmar showed significant positive results in income and assets.1
X Paraguay results. Assets increased for clients with a statistically-significant, medium level of effect.2
X Myanmar Results. Clients showed 40% and 52% increases in income in the first two years, respectively.3 Overall, there were other additional conclusions.
X The 2015 RCTs can no longer be taken at face value.
X Microfinance can have significant positive impact even in difficult contexts.
X But hindering factors can become so severe that positive impact cannot be expected.
X Discussions of effectiveness must address design, operations, and context – conditions/factors that make microfinance more/less impactful and how to address them.
Contributing Knowledge. Opportunity International, Fundación Paraguaya, and VisionFund-Myanmar presented this study at the American Evaluation Association Conference in October, 2023. The researchers, Prof. Dr. Nathan Fiala and Dr. Lise Masselus will be publishing this study in a peer-reviewed academic journal. Opportunity with the study partners will also seek additional opportunities to more widely disseminate the study. An Opportunity “KM Insight” brief is also available. ♦
A study conducted by one of the lead researchers as part of the overall research considered the statistical power of the 2015 studies and found that the sample sizes were so low that the effects had to be enormous in order for the researchers to claim that microfinance had any effect at all. Incomes had to increase by–
• 273% in Bosnia
• 895% in India
• 994% in Mexico
in order for researchers to be able to claim that microfinance had any effect at all. Expecting such levels of income increase after 1-2 loans and using such studies to claim that microfinance is not effective misunderstands microfinance theories of change, posits an unreasonable expectations, and misguides the public.
Source: Mahesh Dahal and Nathan Fiala, “What Do We Know about the Impact of MicroFinance? The Problems of Power and Precision.” World Development (2020): https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0305750X1930422X.
1. No statistically significant effects were found for consumption, employment, food security, access to health care and education. However, it is possible that they do not show up statistically because participants are choosing to invest rather than consume, or spreading consumption so that measurable averages do not exceed the minimum detectable effect size.
2. In Years 3-4, Paraguay saw a 7.2-8% increase in incomes. However, it did not exceed the threshold that enables academics to claim statistical significance. However, the asset increase in Year 3-4 was statistically significant (0.09 standard deviation). This would not have been possible without income change – suggesting that the income increase is significant.
3. The impact coefficient in Year 3 only showed 12.4% increase and was not statistically significant. However, by then, VFM had ceased disbursing loans due to the pandemic and political unrest. However, Year 3 saw a statistically significant, medium-level change in assets (0.12 standard deviation) suggesting previous income was impactful.
Opportunity’s periodic State of the Affordable Non-State School Sector Report (5th edition) highlights both the rapid growth in the number of non-state schools and also the massive unmet demand. EduFinance estimates that there are 1.4 million non-state schools across Africa, Asia, and Latin America, an overall increase from 1.3 million 3 years ago. In Africa, though, the number of non-state schools has been stagnant for the last 2 years. The everincreasing demand for affordable non-state schools means that there will be an additional 38 million new seats for children required through 2026 in low- and middle-income countries. Education quality remains a major challenge. The report cites World Bank and UNESCO Institute of Statistics analysis, which finds that some 53% of children in lowand middle-income countries cannot read well enough to understand a simple story by the end of primary school. In low-income countries, the level is as high as 80%. ♦
A think piece by Deborah Foy, Executive Director of Opportunity, explored climate change’s impact on displacement, its role as a threat multiplier, and the role of financial inclusion in enhancing resilience. The piece projected future displacements and current challenges for internally displaced persons, presented a case study from Uganda, and explored what financial service providers (FSPs) can do to address climate change and its displacement issues. These included the following activities:
X Providing agronomist advice on regenerative agriculture techniques better suited to a changing climate.
X Supporting livelihood diversification for smallholder farmers.
X Building knowledge and skills through training programs to help smallholder farmers deal with climate impacts, e.g., partnering with Pahal and MicroSave Consulting in India to support vulnerable communities in accessing resources and capacities for effective adaptation measures, leaving them less vulnerable.
X Integrating climate adaptation strategies to actively address the risks and vulnerabilities of displaced communities, for example, launching a new agricultural product for smallholder farmers in situations of displacement in Uganda, with support from the International Labor Organization. ♦
(Click underlined links or see footnotes for access)
X Financial Inclusion Week 2024
• Panel: “Resilience of the Social Fabric: Strengthening Education in Africa”
• Panel: “Untapped Potential: Harnessing Financial Inclusion for Last Mile Healthcare”
• Panel: “The Key Ingredient to Inclusive Technology Design: Humanity”
X Pathways to Wellbeing recognized by UNDP/CoFSA for unique approach
KM Fundraising Needs
X EduFinance: Kenya Schools Impact Study (RCT).
X AgFinance: Training effectiveness and FSP engagement research.
X Colombia: Community-Sourced Savings Group Agent Innovation Test.
Questions?
X Contact us at km@opportunity.org.