ORCA Climate Report 2021/2022

CLIMATE REPORT 2021/2022

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CLIMATE ACTION

UN CLIMATE CONFERENCE

The Ocean Research & Conservation Association of Ireland attended the UN Climate Change Conferece virtually in November 2021 and subsequently;y complied the the first Climate Report for Ireland's Ocean Ecosystems as a pathway to recovery from 2021 onwards. The report herein is a comprehensive review of recommendations from members of the public, academia, industry leaders, researchers, students and

CLIMATE REPORT 2021/2022

local communities on how to build a more sustainable, biodiverse and thriving ocean ecosystem for Ireland.

12%

CO2 LEVELS INCREASE BUDGET MAXIMIZED Based on preliminary analysis, the global average atmospheric carbon dioxide in 2020 was 412.5 parts per million (ppm for short), setting a new record high amount despite the economic slowdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, the jump of 2.6 ppm over 2019 levels was the fifth-highest annual increase in NOAA's 63-year record. Since 2000, the global atmospheric carbon dioxide amount has grown by 43.5 ppm, an increase of 12 percent.

1960 1970

Years

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 0

100

200

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (PPM)

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300

400

500

414 PPm

TOTAL ATMOSPHERIC CO2

Carbon dioxide levels today are higher than at any point in at least the past 800,000 years. In fact, the last time the

CLIMATE REPORT 2021/2022

atmospheric CO₂ amounts were this high was more than 3 million years ago, during the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period, when temperature was 2°–3°C (3.6°–5.4°F) higher than during the preindustrial era, and sea level was 15–25 meters (50–80 feet) higher than today.

WHY CO2 IS IMPORTANT OCEAN ACIDIFICATION

carbon dioxide is important in the Earth system is that it dissolves into the ocean like the fizz in a can of soda. It reacts with water molecules, producing carbonic acid and lowering the ocean's pH (raising its acidity). Since the start of the Industrial Revolution, the pH of the ocean's surface waters has dropped from 8.21 to 8.10. This drop in pH is called ocean acidification.

A drop of 0.1 may not seem like a lot, but the pH scale is logarithmic; a 1-unit drop in pH means a tenfold increase in acidity. A change of 0.1 means a roughly 30% increase in acidity.

Increasing acidity interferes with the ability of marine life to extract calcium from the water to build their shells and skeletons

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20 Years

TO SAVE OUR CORALS

Carbon dioxide levels today are higher than at any point in at least the past 800,000 years. In fact, the last time the

CLIMATE REPORT 2021

atmospheric CO₂ amounts were this high was more than 3 million years ago, during the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period, when temperature was 2°–3°C (3.6°– 5.4°F) higher than during the preindustrial era, and sea level was 15–25 meters (50–80 feet) higher than today.

COLDWATER CORALS

STORM SURGES Over half the species of coral in the world are cold, deep-water species and many of them can be found in Irish waters between water depths of 600 m and 1000 m. Ireland's continental margin has extremely favourable conditions for cold-water corals at depths of 600m and 1000m and this has been the case for millions of years, where the corals have been forming giant mounds on the seabed that are over 100m in height and several kilometers long. In 2011 and 2015, Dr. Aaron Lim, (Marine Geology Research Group, UCC), using "the Irish Marine Institute's Holland 1 Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) on-board research vessel, RV Celtic Explorer, retrieved images and samples from these deep-water cold-water coral reefs off the Belgica Mound Province, on the Irish continental margin. They found the reef changed 20% in just 4 years. This change was an increase in the proportion of dead coral and coral rubble areas, which is not the result of live coral dying, but possibly due to the result of strong currents exposing dead coral buried beneath older parts of the reef. Assuming the change continues at this rate, then in twenty years the reef will entirely change

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arctic sea ice

POLAR BEAR HABITAT

CLIMATE REPORT 2021/2022

13% decline every year since 1979 ARCTIC SEA ICE The effects of climate change are not the same in the Arctic and Antarctic. While almost 75% of the Arctic sea ice has disappeared, the state of sea ice in Antarctic seems stable, at least for now.

The planets average temperature has risen a little more than 1°C since the start of the industrial era. Our planet's polar regions, however, are warming faster than other places (IPCC, 2021). In these regions, temperatures rose about 2°C in the Arctic and between 1.0 and 1.5°C in the Antarctic.

Among other impacts, this warming has resulted in a decrease of Arctic sea ice area and ice thickness in both summer and winter, with sea ice becoming younger, thinner and more dynamic.

In fact, the current Arctic sea ice area is at its lowest level since at least 1850. The area of late summer Arctic sea ice is now smaller than at any time in at least the past 1,000 years.

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REFORESTATION

RESTORE FORESTS BY 2030

CLIMATE REPORT 2021

Methane emissions cut by 30% AGRICULTURE & DEFORESTATION Ireland will be among about 80 countries, including the United States and the European Union, to sign the pledge on methane, most of which comes from agriculture and which accounts for about 30 per cent of global warming. More than 100 leaders, representing 85% of the world's forests, will commit to stopping and reversing deforestation by 2030 in a "significant milestone" on the road to tackling the climate crisis. Deforestation contributes to climate change because it depletes forests that absorb huge volumes of CO2. Ireland’s sector specific targets for emissions reductions, including from agriculture, over the coming years will be contained within the Climate Action Plan.

The plan will set out how each sector is going to contribute to the overall national goal of reducing the State’s greenhouse emissions by 51 per cent by 2030 and to be climate neutral by 2050. For agriculture the future could see farmers paid more to produce less as incentives switch to protecting biodiversity, encourage them to plant native trees and maintain clean waterways.

Ireland’s first carbon budget, running from 2021 to 2025, requires emissions to reduce by 4.8 per cent on average each year for five years. The second budget, running from 2026 to 2030, will see emissions reduce by 8.3 per cent on average each year.

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REFORESTATION

RESTORE FORESTS BY 2030

CLIMATE REPORT 2021/2022

RE-wilding REFORESTATION More than 100 countries including Brazil, Russia, Canada, Colombia, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo have signed a Pledge to commit to stopping and reversing deforestation by 2030, which is backed by some €16.5bn in public and private funding. The agreement says the leaders "recognise that to meet our land use, climate, biodiversity and sustainable development goals, both globally and nationally, will require transformative further action" in interconnected areas such as sustainable production and consumption, infrastructure development, trade, finance and investment.

It also pledges support for smallholders, Indigenous Peoples and local communities who depend on forests for their livelihoods and have a key role in their stewardship. Forests play an essential role in fighting the climate crisis, absorbing vast amounts of planet-heating carbon dioxide from the air, and provide food, jobs and homes.

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save the Whales

FARMERS OF THE OCEANS

1 whale = 30,000 Trees CLIMATE REPORT 2021

IN CO2 CAPTURE WWW.ORCAIRELAND.ORG

HOW MUCH is a whale worth £ ?

Ecosystem & Economic Value

According to economists with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2019, carbon-sequestering as an ecosystem service provided by whales is of great importance in the fight against climate change. Whales can store up to 9 tonnes of carbon in their bodies by eating phytoplankton.

As farmers of the ocean, they create nutrient cycles through their poop and when they die and decay at great ocean depths. A single whale in its lifetime of on average 60 years, can capture as much carbon dioxide from the atmosphere as 30,000 trees! Historically, whales were only valued when they were dead, hunted, and divided up for their blubber, oil, and meat. Today the economic value of one living whale is estimated at over 2 million euro!

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save Our SHARKS CLIMATE CONCERNS

37% of Sharks, Skates & Rays IN DANGER OF EXTINCTION Around the world, 37% of sharks are now threatened with extinction, according to a new Red List created by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) of Species. There is a broad body of evidence that climatic fluctuations are playing an important role in changing fish distributions and abundances, which is discernible against the background of trends in abundance due to fishing. During warm periods, southern species have tended to become more prominent and northern species less abundant. However, the changes in distribution are often more complicated than might be expected from a simple climate envelope approach, partly due to ocean circulation patterns that create invasion routes for southern water species into the North Sea from the south and from the north via the continental shelf west of Britain and Ireland.

The eventual population-scale impacts of ocean acidification on sharks are difficult to predict but may include indirect food web effects arising from the enhanced sensitivity of calcifying planktonic organisms. Prey species such as the lesser sandeel (Ammodytes marinus) are identified as being at particular risk from climate change.

Owing to sandeels strict association with coarse sandy sediments, they are unable to adapt their distribution to compensate for warming sea temperatures. Sandeels are a key link in the food web, linking primary and zooplankton production to top predators.

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extreme weather CLIMATE CONCERNS

Storm Barra hit the south and west coasts of Ireland in early December 2021. Wind speeds at the Fastnet

happening in-front of our very own eyes here in Lighthouse reached a record 161km/hr. This is climate change Ireland. Climate projections for the next century predict changes in wind speeds and storm tracks; increased likelihood of river and coastal flooding; changes in the distribution of plant and animal species and in the phenology (the timing of lifecycle events) of native species; water stress for crops, pressure on water supply and adverse impacts on water quality and negative impacts on human health and wellbeing.

Temperature: Ireland's climate is changing in line with global trends, with a temperature increase of, on average, 0.8°C compared with 1900. By the middle of this century (2041 – 2060) the average annual temperatures are projected to increase by between 1–1.2℃ and 1.3–1.6℃ depending on the emissions trajectory. The number of warm days is expected to increase and heat waves are expected to occur more frequently.

Percipitation: Ireland has seen an increase in average annual national rainfall of approximately 60mm or 5% in the period 19812010, compared to the 30- year period 1961-1990. Significant reductions are expected in average levels of annual, spring and summer rainfall. Projections indicate a substantial increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events in Winter and Autumn (approx. 20%).

Sea Level Rise: The rate of global sea level rise for 2006–2015 of 3.6 mm per year, is unprecedented over the last century, and about 2.5 times the rate for 1901–1990. Sea level is projected to continue to rise at this rate or greater. All major cities in Ireland are in coastal locations subject to tides, any significant rise in sea levels will have major economic, social and environmental impacts. Rising sea levels around Ireland would result in increased coastal erosion, flooding and damage to property and infrastructure.

OTHER INDICATORS The number of very intense storms is projected to increase over the North Atlantic region. Projections suggest that the winter track of these storms may extend further south and over Ireland more often.

Sea surface temperature in Irish waters has increased at a rate of approximately 0.6°C per decade since 1994, which is unprecedented in the 150-year observational record.

More arctic marine mammals are showing up on Irish shores.

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COP26 AGENDA

COP26 CLIMATE CONFERENCE!

NET ZERO/1.5 DEGREES PROTECT ECOSYSTEMS

MOBILISE FUNDING

COLLABORATION WWW.ORCAIRELAND.ORG

CLimate Actions 2021

IRISH GOVERNMENT PLANS

ELECTRICITY & TRANSPORT

70%

Micro-generation

will allow homeowners to generate their own electricity and sell it back to the grid.

from renewable energy sources by 2030!

1 millionelectric

Stop Burning fossil fuels such as peat & coal by 2030.

vehicles on the road by 2030.

CYCLE PATHS To be expanded and add more park & ride facilities.

NO-DIESAL No diesel-only purchases for public buses

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CLimate Actions 2021

IRISH GOVERNMENT PLANS TOWARDS A

CIRCULAR ECONOMY

50%

Landfill waste reduced down to 10% by 2030.

Reduction in food waste by 2030.

70%

of packaging waste recycled by 2030.

SINGLE -USE Single-use plastic to be banned, including polystyrene cups.

55% of plastic

packaging recycled by 2030.

FASHION Promote sustainable fashion, plasticfree clothing and item sharing.

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TAKE HOME MESSAGES

COP26 CLIMATE CONFERENCE!

Increase renewable electricity – wind and solar up to 80% by 2030.

Increase reforestation programmes

Enhance cycle lanes and provide cycle to work schemes.

Stop surveys for oil & gas, fracking and shut down oil refineries.

Review data centre strategy to ensure the sector supports renewables and emissions targets

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TAKE HOME MESSAGES

COP26 CLIMATE CONFERENCE!

Increase organically farmed land almost five-fold to 350,000 hectares

Ensure all plastic packaging is reusable or recyclable by 2030.

Ensure the rollout of electric vehicles is supported Nationwide.

Phase out use of fossil fuels for space and water heating in all new buildings

Consider becoming a vegetarian or reducing your meat consumption.

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TAKE HOME MESSAGES

CLIMATE CHANGE & IRISH PEOPLE

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ORCA CLIMATE SURVEY

Q1. Did you attend the COP26 Conference in Glasgow, 2021?

Q2. How old are you?

Q3. What sex are you?

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ORCA CLIMATE SURVEY

Q4. What is the biggest challenge that worries you about the climate crises?

Based on your current knowledge; Q5. How do you think we can tackle the climate crises?

"Large corporations need to take responsibility, charge them higher taxes, governments shouldn't be afraid to fine them when they begin to damage the earth."

"A change of attitude and actual government buy in, they need to lead by example."

"Make big companies/organisations be responsible with the climate"

"Stopping massive amounts of emissions produced by large companies."

"Radical, multidisciplinary change based on scientific data."

"Eradicate fossil fuels on a global level and introduce renewable energy as a main energy source"

"Conservation efforts and steps towards mitigating and adapting to climate change" W W W . O R C A I R E L A N D . O R G

PUBLIC COMMENTS - ORCA CLIMATE SURVEY

"Stop using fossil fuels. Reduce meat consumption."

"Live more sustainably, grow our own food, create our own energy using renewables like solar panels and wind turbines. Protect biodiversity and their important habitats from human activities"

"Veganism, Green energy sources, Greater knowledge"

Q6. What is your biggest concern about

the government of Ireland's Climate Action Plan?

"All talk and no action" "It’s just an excuse to raise taxes and make the rich richer and the poor, poorer!"

"Concern is our government are a bit useless at actually acting on certain

plans so I'm sceptical they will make a difference."

"It wont be met."

"The lack of enforcement and action."

"Although they are stating changes will be made, nothing is being done and I fear Ireland will not progress as other countries might when it comes to climate protection."

"It is not ambitious enough"

"Not effective enough" WWW.ORCAIRELAND.ORG

PUBLIC COMMENTS - ORCA CLIMATE SURVEY

Q7. How can you as a person reduce your carbon footprint?

"Walk, cycle, cut out meat, and shop local and buy local produce. Use recycled energy."

"Reduce red meat intake and use of plastics" "Buy more locally grown produce, upgrade to energy efficient electrical and home heating equipment at home" "Walk/cycle instead of motor transport Solar panels at home Biodiversity friendly garden Stop buying things in plastic packaging" "Cut back on buying fast fashion" "Try shop sustainable eg local companies" "Use public transport, use less water, use less single use plastic" "Reduce use of plastics, support local business and eco friendly suppliers."

"Use reusable coffee cups and straws, use public transport or cycle or walk when possible, reduce meat and dairy intake"

"I can be more aware of where I buy my clothes and find alternative means to travel".

"Veganism, knowledge on products being bought, use of public transport, caution on energy wastage, buying of clothes from charity shops etc" WWW.ORCAIRELAND.ORG

PUBLIC COMMENTS - ORCA CLIMATE SURVEY

Q.12 How can local business reduce their carbon footprint?

"Buy more locally, support local economy and reduce imports from abroad if it can and is produced here . Upgrade heating/electrical equipment, encourage working from home where possible for their staff."

"Less plastic packaging on products, use biodegradable packaging" "Reduce plastic and air postage" "Use local resources were possible. Use recycled energy. Cut down on packaging."

"Use recyclable materials and clean energy."

"Renewable energy could supply power to buildings, encourage employees to travel to work more environmentally friendly (perhaps giving them an incentive to work towards for reaching a certain goal."

"This will vary business by business, there isn't one clear cut solution."

"Do NOT sell items in plastic packaging Source produce locally."

"Encourage change in the right direction, like those highlighted above".

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References

Berry, P. M., Dawson, T. P., Harrison, P. A., & Pearson, R. G. (2002). Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the bioclimatic envelope of species in Britain and Ireland. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 11(6), 453–462. doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2002.00304.x Cheung, W. W. L., Pinnegar, J., Merino, G., Jones, M. C., & Barange, M. (2012). Review of climate change impacts on marine fisheries in the UK and Ireland. Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems, 22(3), 368–388. doi:10.1002/aqc.2248 Donnelly, A., Jones, M.B. & Sweeney, J. A review of indicators of climate change for use in Ireland. Int J Biometeorol 49, 1–12 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-004-0215-5.

Fox, E. and Rau, H., 2016. Climate change communication in Ireland. In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science.Vancouver Heath, M. R., Neat, F. C., Pinnegar, J. K., Reid, D. G., Sims, D. W., & Wright, P. J. (2012). Review of climate change impacts on marine fish and shellfish around the UK and Ireland. Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems, 22(3), 337–367. doi:10.1002/aqc.2244. https://www.epa.ie/environment-and-you/climate-change/what-impact-will-climate-change-have-forireland/ https://www.gov.ie/en/campaigns/2f87c-climate-action-plan-2021/ https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/6223e-climate-action-plan-2021/ Kiely, (1999). Climate change in Ireland from precipitation and streamflow observations Advances in Water Resources, Volume 23, Issue 2.

McElwain, L. and Sweeney, J., 2007. Key meteorological indicators of climate change in Ireland (p. 31).

Johnstown Castle, Wexford, Ireland: Environmental Protection Agency.

McGrath, R., Nishimura, E., Nolan, P., Semmler, T., Sweeney, C. and Wang, S., 2005. Climate change: Regional climate model predictions for Ireland (pp. 1-45). Dublin: Environmental Protection Agency.

Nolan, P., Lynch, P., McGrath, R., Semmler, T., & Wang, S. (2011). Simulating climate change and its effects on the wind energy resource of Ireland. Wind Energy, 15(4), 593–608. doi:10.1002/we.489 Steele-Dunne, S., Lynch, P., McGrath, R., Semmler, T., Wang, S., Hanafin, J., & Nolan, P. (2008). The impacts of climate change on hydrology in Ireland. Journal of Hydrology, 356(1-2), 28–45. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.03.025

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