11/25/15 Emerald Media - Gameday Edition

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⚑ GAMEDAY

IS IT STILL A RIVALRY? OREGON AND OREGON STATE HAVE BEEN PLAYING THE

IN-STATE COMPETITION SINCE 1894. Oregon’s recent

success in the national spotlight has turned the once competitive match up into a nearly guaranteed win.

GRADING THE OREGON FOOTBALL SEASON



H O W U O A N D O S U S TA C K U P



OREGON BOWL PREDICTIONS

# C I V I LWA R

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WHY OSU WILL BEAT OREGON

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**Editor’s Note: Each week during football season, we feature an essay from the opponent’s student newspaper on why Oregon will lose. This week’s edition is from Brian Rathbone, the sports editor at The Daily Barometer.**

➡ BRIAN

R AT H B O N E , T H E D A I LY B A R O M E T E R

When rivalry games such as the Civil War are played, all bets are off. Records and winning streaks leading up to the game are tossed out the window. It doesn’t matter that this week the Ducks are 35-point favorites and have a 96.2 percent win probability, according to ESPN’s Power Football index.

When the two teams in Oregon take the field on Thanksgiving weekend, expect the unexpected. A quick walk down memory lane will prove that.

Let’s start in 1998. Oregon was ranked in the top-20 and near the top in the Pac-12 standings. Oregon State was led by a freshman quarterback and freshman running back. What was supposed to be a an easy victory for the Ducks turned into a double overtime thriller.

Ken Simonton took a handoff down the sideline for a winning score, which would become one of the iconic plays in Oregon State and Civil War history.

Then there is 2007, the last time the Beavers defeated the Ducks. Oregon was once again ranked in the top-20 and were playing at Autzen. Oregon State, on the other hand, played that game without one of their best players in program history, running back Yvenson Bernard.

Enter walk-on running back Matt Sieverson. Entering the Civil War, the Bend, Oregon native had carried the ball 57 times for 202 yards. He would go on to gash the Duck defense for 142 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries en route to a 38-31 double overtime victory.

Finally, there is the 2013 Civil War, also played at Autzen. Similar to this year, Oregon State was coming off a thrashing from the Washington Huskies, losing at home 69-27, pushing its losing streak to four

games. Oregon State appeared to have zero chance against the Marcus Mariota-led Ducks.

But the Beavers would push the Ducks to the brink, almost pulling the upset 36-35.

This season, Oregon is stacked. Vernon Adams Jr., who holds the Reser Stadium record for total yards in a game when he torched an OSU defense for 518 total yards and six touchdowns as a member of Eastern Washington, has jump started the offense this past month while Royce Freeman continues to be a 100-yard game machine. Stopping those two alone will be a tall order for an injury-riddled Oregon State defense that gives up over 35 points per game.

And while Oregon’s defense has gradually improved over the course of the season, they rank last in the conference in both total defense and scoring defense. Even an offense that is struggling like Oregon State’s could find ways to move the ball.

I felt pretty confident that the Ducks would roll past the Beavers on Friday — that was until the Oregon released the quasi-camouflage uniforms that the team will be wearing in the game (insert “WHAT ARE THOSE!?” Vine). Haven’t they learned from recent years that breaking out bizarre uniforms — the pink helmets vs. Arizona, the glittery helmets vs. Michigan State and Lewis and Clark tribute outfits vs.

Washington State — hasn’t worked for them?

Oregon’s Civil War winning streak isn’t going to last forever, and, in all likelihood, it will end when everyone least expects it. And I don’t think anyone is expecting the Beavers to win on Friday.

⚑ GAMEDAY

STACK UP ➡ JUSTIN

WISE, @JUSTINFWISE

While Oregon’s matchup against USC was taking place, ESPN analyst Danny Kanell tweeted that based on the eye-test, the Ducks should be in the College Football Playoff committee’s top four: “If the committee truly went by “eye test” or “who is playing the best” right now — Oregon would be Top 4. No doubt”.

It’s clear that Oregon has already knocked itself out of playoff contention due to its three early season losses. However, after consecutive wins over Pac-12 North champion Stanford and potential Pac-12 South champion USC, an argument can be made that the Ducks are playing just as competitive a brand of football as anyone in the nation.

It’s why they come into this week’s 119th Civil War against Oregon State as 30-plus point favorites. The betting line has as much to do with Oregon’s recent dominance as Oregon State’s consistent struggles. The Beavers (2-9, 0-8 Pac-12) have lost eight straight games and gave up 45 first half points in its most recent loss to Washington.

What it means is that the latest act in this longstanding rivalry could get ugly quick on Friday. While Oregon seems like an offense that can’t be stopped, Oregon State is struggling to keep teams off the scoreboard at such a high rate.

Vernon Adams throws a pass in last Saturday’s home game against USC. (Cole Elsasser)

OREGON OFFENSE VS. OSU DEFENSE

OSU OFFENSE VS. OREGON DEFENSE

Oregon’s offense leads the Pac-12 in scoring offense, total offense and rushing offense. Despite receiving virtually zero national acclaim, Royce Freeman has run at a rate comparable to Heisman Trophy candidates. He rushed 20 times for 147 yards against USC and is averaging 6.7 yards per carry on the year.

On the other hand, Oregon State ranks last in rushing defense and 11th in total defense. Its opponents are averaging 35.6 points per game and Pac-12 teams have scored at least 41 points in each of the team’s last three games. Rommel Mageo leads the team with 76 tackles, but he’s playing with a group that lacks the depth needed.

The Oregonian reported that the defensive unit last week featured “one former fullback/tight end/H-back, two former wide receivers, two former walk-ons and one current walk-on.”

When a group like that is compared to one that features Vernon Adams Jr., Freeman and a chorus of other playmakers, it’s hard to think the Ducks will score anything less than 40 points.

Oregon State quarterback Seth Collins started the first seven games of the season and displayed gifted athleticism when running with the football. He was average at throwing it and passed for 892 yards for six touchdowns. Since getting injured against Colorado on Oct. 24, he hasn’t played, and Oregon State’s offense appears to no longer have any type of playmaker who can create for himself.

Nick Mitchell replaced Collins, but was benched in favor of Marcus McMaryion during Washington’s route of the Beavers last week. With all the uncertainty at quarterback, it is no surprise that Oregon State has averaged 16.9 points per game. Wide receiver Brandon Bolden poses the best threat Oregon State has in the passing attack. He’s caught 39 passes for 418 yards this season.

Oregon State’s passing attack is facing an Oregon secondary that is much better than it was a month ago. The unit stymied a Trojans offense that was on a four-game winning streak, limiting it to just three touchdowns and forcing one turnover.

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JUSTIN WISE

JOEY HOYT

H AY D E N K I M

⚑ GAMEDAY Royce Freeman fighting through the USC defense in last Saturday’s win against the Trojans.

(Cole Elsasser)

GRADING ➡ JUSTIN The words “what if” seems to be the ones that will define the 2015 Oregon football season.

After Vernon Adams Jr. effortlessly tacked on touchdown pass after touchdown pass in the Ducks’ 48-28 win over USC last Saturday, Oregon is now ranked 18 in the AP Poll and is one game away from finishing the regular season 9-3.

The cries from fans to overhaul the Oregon coaching staff have calmed, while the offense has hummed at the rate fans are used to seeing it at.

Head coach Mark Helfrich said Sunday that much of the improvement is due to the quarterback play, but added that “our guys and coaches have done a great job of being realistic and sticking with it.”

He spoke more about the team’s improvement, the preparation ahead to play against rival Oregon State and congratulated Stanford on winning the Pac-12 north, “unfortunately.”

In this five-game run where you’ve gone undefeated, are there areas of the team where you’ve seen drastic improvement?

Mark Helfrich: Well I think there’s been gradual improvement. In football or anything, if you do something wrong and you instantly correct it and you never make that mistake again, you’re better.

And that’s the key to playing football. I think our

WISE, @JUSTINFWISE

guys and coaches have done a great job of being realistic and sticking with it. Obviously what’s going on with the quarterback play, what’s going on there is an immeasurable factor. That makes everybody better.

Do you feel like your offense is peaking at the right time? And secondly, as coaches you talk about improving. After yesterday’s performance how much do you still have left to improve?

MH: A ton. That’s what’s amazing. To beat a team that’s as good as SC and the way that we did, there’s a bunch of stuff that we can improve upon, whether it’s protections, identification, coverage identification, progression by the quarterback, we got a couple missed assignments up front, couple missed assignments on the perimeter, we had a couple penalties that were unnecessary, a ton of stuff on special teams.

Aiden Schneider leads the nation in FG percentage, does that affect how you run the offense in the red zone?

MH: It can. It’s certainly great to have that confidence in your back pocket. I love touchdowns. But the way he’s done it and he has the total confidence of the team, that’s a big deal too.

After watching the tape, did you see a lot of improvement specifically in the secondary?

MH: Improvement and stuff that can be still improved upon. That’s the sign hopefully of development of improvement, you’re beating a team that’s really good, that’s hot, that’s extremely talented, and you’re still overcoming some of your own mistakes.

Chris Seisay’s return — how did that help the defense and was his return expected?

MH: It was great to have him back. It was a surprise that it was that quick. But just to have, we don’t have a lot of depth, it’s experience on the run.

So anytime you can pack that in with a guy that’s been out there a little bit is important and big.

With Oregon State’s struggles, do you play up the rivalry game narrative?

MH: Much more so about us. Just as we did last week. It’s about their fronts, their percentages, all the thing we break down leading up to a game plan. Its all about us.

How much did you watch of the Stanford-Cal game?

MH: I watched most of it, yeah yeah.

Congratulations to Stanford, unfortunately.

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CIVIL WAR : A LOPSIDED RIVALRY ➥ ANDREW

B A N T LY, @ A N D R E W B A N T LY

Ross Hernried had every reason to be an Oregon State fan growing up.

The Corvallis native grew up a five minute bike ride away from Reser Stadium, home of the Beavers. He played the sport with friends who went on to play at OSU and others whose parents coached for the football team.

Hernried’s father taught civil engineering at the university, and his mother shared a dogwalking route with former Beavers’ head coach Mike Riley’s wife. But growing up with memories of sneaking into Reser and playing hideand-go seek wasn’t enough for Hernried to declare his allegiance to his hometown team. “As a kid, I decided I wanted to be a Duck fan,� he said. “I had no reason to not like the Beavers. I wanted to be different from the pack, I guess. I thought the Ducks were cool because they were different.�

Though he admits, his favorite NFL player remains running back Steven Jackson, a two-time All-American at OSU. “In the early 2000s, OSU was a really competitive school, actually. They had a lot of star athletes like Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Steven Jackson and [Ken Simonton],�

Hernried said.

During the annual Civil War meeting between the Ducks and Beavers, Corvallis devoted an entire week to the matchup, says Hernried.

At school, Benny the Beaver, the Duck and OSU football players visited the classroom in support of the rivalry that began in 1894.

However, the Civil War has unquestionably lost some of its appeal in recent years.

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Oregon is one win away from tying the all-time winning streak shared by both teams — the Beavers’ eight-game winning streak lasted from 1964-71, the Ducks’ from 197582.

Yet, those past streaks were largely annual positives in otherwise uninspiring seasons. Whereas, over the Ducks current seven-game winning streak, Oregon has appeared in two National Championship games, won two Rose Bowls, four conference titles and two other bowl games.

Within a decade, Oregon has flourished as a national powerhouse while the Beavers have remained a respectable, but not intimidating program just north of its long-time rival.

It has resulted in a Civil War matchup that, in terms of the Ducks’ season, can be overlooked.

The change from mutual excitement to one side finding it “hard to care� because it’s “so lopsided,� as Hernried puts it, came in March of 2009, when Mike Bellotti, Oregon’s winningest coach (116 wins), passed the mantle to his offensive coordinator, Chip Kelly. “That’s when it was competitive,� Hernried said, thinking of the Bellotti era. “They’d be good games, too.

Chip definitely changed things.�

Kelly never lost to Oregon State during his tenure, and his first Civil War victory secured the Ducks’ first Rose Bowl berth since 1995. It also ruined the Beavers’ chances of returning to the oldest bowl game in college football, a game Oregon State still hasn’t played in since 1964 or won since 1942.

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“That was really the first year that the [Oregon] program seemed like it turned around in a positive direction,” Taylor Alie, a Eugene native and Ducks quarterback, said of the 2009 Civil War. It wasn’t long ago when the Civil War offered a marquee matchup, that not only affected each team’s season, but had national implications. Between 1997 and 2006, every single Civil War was won by the home team – a pattern never previously witnessed.

One of the best of these games came in 2000, when No. 5 Oregon visited No. 8 Oregon State with the Pac-10 title on the line. Oregon needed a win to secure the conference title for itself. However, the Beavers took the victory and forced a three-way tie between the Ducks, Beavers and Washington Huskies.

“Back then, I thought it was more fun because it was so 50/50 every single year,” Oregon running back Jarret Lacoste said.

LaCoste grew up 10 minutes away from OSU, in Albany. His dad Joe played running back for the Beavers and his mom Joene got her degree in Corvallis. The junior estimates he went to 60 or 70 Beavers games growing up, about seven per season.

“I grew up a really big Beavers fan until about two years ago when I came here,” LaCoste said.

“I was shunned the first couple of years, but now they kind of give into the Ducks when we play in the Civil War. It’s still a bit of a house divided.”

LaCoste and Hernried both agree that the Civil War represents tradition more than anything.

Oregon linebacker Tyson Coleman, a Lake Oswego High graduate, remembers half his high school dressed in Ducks gear, the other in orange and black, with “constant trash talking” around the halls.

“It’s something everyone has to give into, whether it’s competitive or not, it’s always going to be fun,” LaCoste said.

“Both crowds are the same, no matter what stadium you fall into, whether that be 10 years ago or today. It’s not just going to be some blowout. Whether at the end of the game it is or not, it doesn’t feel that way.

Friday’s game figures to be another win for the Ducks. The Beavers remain in the bottom of the Pac-12 conference without a conference win while Oregon is riding a five-game winning streak. But, come kickoff, you never know what could happen.

“This is [the Beavers’] big game. Every year, it’s like their Rose Bowl,” Hernried said. “It’s a huge deal, they always think they can win, no matter what. For whatever reason, [OSU fans] really put their heart into this game.”

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⚑ GAMEDAY

OREGON VS. OSU

➡ CHRISTOPHER

KEIZUR, @CHRISKEIZUR

With the final home game of the year quickly approaching, Oregon fans must be thinking about what the season could have been. This has been a different squad with a healthy Vernon Adams Jr. under center. Many of the losses, like Washington State, may have played out differently with the graduate transfer healthily at the helm.

Now, the Ducks’ attention will turn to the 119th Civil War against Oregon State Friday afternoon to see which school gets to host the Platypus Trophy.

While Oregon has been trending up, the same can’t be said of its in-state rival. Under first year head coach Gary Andersen, everyone thought this would be a rebuilding year for the Beavers (2-9, 0-8), though perhaps not quite as bad as it has been. Oregon State hasn’t won a conference game this season and has gaping holes across the field. Losing starting quarterback Seth Collins, who led the team in passing and rushing yards, to an injury didn’t help.

But as the saying goes: throw out the records in rivalry games. So enjoy Thanksgiving with family and friends, eat a lot of turkey and then get ready for some football.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH: OSU playcalling vs.

Oregon defense

Oregon running backs vs.

OSU front seven

Going into this game, the Beavers are going to have to get creative in the play calling if they want a chance to snag the upset. They will have to be aggressive, not afraid to go for two-point conversions, fake punts and onside kicks early in the game to try to catch the Oregon defense off guard.

One player who should be involved is Victor Bolden, who is a threat running and catching the ball. Watch for early attempts by him to get touches in the open spaces so he can make plays with his feet.

Oregon will try to build a quick lead and then drain the clock by pounding the ball on the ground. Coming in, the Ducks are ranked fifth in the nation in terms of rushing yards, piling on 285.9 per game.

Starting running back Royce Freeman will likely get touches early and often. For the Beavers, the key will be to get stops and get the defense off the field, giving the offense as many chances as possible to score touchdowns of its own.

PLAYERS TO WATCH: OREGON: Bralon Addison It sometimes feels like Addison’s production on the field is overshadowed by his flashier teammates, even though he has been one of the most consistent players on the Oregon roster. This year he has 50 receptions for 669 yards and seven touchdowns.

Evan Baylis In the past two games, against some of the stiffest competition of the conference schedule, the Ducks have gotten a surprise performance out of tight end Baylis. In wins against USC and Stanford, Baylis collected three catches for 95 yards and a touchdown.

OSU: Jordan Villamin The Beavers’ sophomore wide receiver has been one of the few bright spots on offense this year.

Villamin provides a big target for quarterbacks, standing six-foot-five, which comes in handy when his team works its way into the redzone.

When he has seen the ball, Villamin has produced, pulling in 39 catches for 588 yards and five touchdowns.

Kyle Peko Oregon tight end Evan Baylis runs for a touchdown during last week’s game against USC. (Cole Elsasser)

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Peko is one of the leaders on the defensive side of the ball for Oregon State. The big-bodied senior defensive tackle will look to hold his position against the aggressive Oregon rushing attack, occupying the offensive line and freeing up his teammates to make plays. He has done well this season, recording 40 tackles and a sack.

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BOWL PREDICTIONS

Byron Marshall celebrates after last year’s victory over Florida State in the Rose Bowl.

➡ WILL

Week 13 of the college football season provided some clarity to a murky Pac-12 title race. With No. 11 Stanford’s win over Cal, No. 18 Oregon will not be going to the Pac-12 Championship. But outside of the Pac-12 title and College Football Playoff, the Ducks’ bowl game fate has plenty of intriguing possibilities.

Assuming that Oregon can win the Civil War against Oregon State, who is 0-8 in the Pac-12, the Ducks can reach as high as the Rose Bowl or Fiesta Bowl. Much of it, however, will depend on key Pac-12 games this weekend, particularly Stanford’s matchup with No. 4 Notre Dame and the winner-take-all game between USC and No. 22 UCLA, with the victor representing the Pac-12 South in the conference championship game.

Here are the best, worst and most realistic bowl game scenarios for the Ducks: Best: Rose Bowl (Jan. 1) A couple of things outside of Oregon’s control would have to happen in order for the Ducks to get back to Pasadena, California, for the second consecutive season. Most importantly, Stanford would have to sneak into the College Football Playoff, which would require a (convincing) win against Notre Dame and a win in the Pac-12

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Championship. If those two things happen, and the Ducks are the highest-ranked team in the conference not named Stanford, they have a slim chance of reaching the Rose Bowl. The Ducks would face an opponent from the Big Ten, possibly the loser of its conference’s championship game. Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan and Iowa could all land here.

Worst: Sun Bowl (Dec. 26) The Ducks likely won’t fall this far, but if Oregon State manages to pull off a major upset at Autzen Stadium, it could happen.

Stanford most likely will bump Oregon out of the Rose Bowl, but for the Ducks to finish the Pac-12 season behind UCLA, Washington State, USC and Utah in the standings, a lot would have to go against them. An ACC team is slated to play against the Pac-12 in the Sun Bowl, likely a middle-of-the-pack team such as Miami, Duke or North Carolina State.

Most realistic: Alamo Bowl (Jan. 2) The Ducks last played in the Alamo Bowl in 2013, when a Marcus Mariota-led team defeated Texas 30-7. Though the Ducks were somewhat disappointed to land there in 2013, they should consider it a success this season.

This bowl is the Ducks’ most likely scenario, mainly because Stanford and the winner of UCLA-USC will have an extra game on the

Ducks regardless of the outcome. Oregon would face a Big 12 team that’s not playing on New Year’s Day in this bowl. Possibilities include Baylor, Oklahoma State and TCU, all of whom would present good matchups for Oregon.

Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 1) The Fiesta Bowl selects two “at-large” teams in the rankings for this New Year’s Day game. The Ducks would certainly have to win convincingly in the Civil War to have a chance of getting in, but more importantly, a significant shakeup in the top 10 would be a must for the Ducks to climb that far in the rankings. Notre Dame could land in this bowl, especially with a loss to Stanford.

Holiday Bowl (Dec. 30) This scenario could happen if UCLA beats Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship game.

Both teams would finish with a better overall record than the Ducks, regardless of the Civil War result. Oregon would likely slide down from the Alamo Bowl, making the Holiday Bowl its best bet. However, if USC beats UCLA, it seems unlikely USC would reach a better bowl than the Ducks, considering their convincing 48-28 victory over the Trojans last Saturday. Realistically, second-tier Big Ten teams Wisconsin or Northwestern will land in this bowl.

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