Whitepaper: The differences between crisis response and proactive risk management

In the dynamic aviation industry, risk management and crisis response both play crucial roles in safeguarding assets, ensuring operational continuity and protecting the interests of airlines, business aviation, cargo carriers and aircraft lease companies. Traditionally, more emphasis has been placed on crisis response, but thanks to the development of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) tools in recent years, aviation stakeholders can now rely on proactive predictive risk management, thereby minimising the need for crisis response to be the primary focus of a mitigation strategy.

This thought leadership piece aims to shed light on the differences between the traditional crisis response approach and emerging predictive risk management tools, and examines the advantages of predictive risk management and how it has evolved into such a powerful tool.

THE PITFALLS OF CRISIS RESPONSE AS A PRIMARY STRATEGY

Recent conflicts around the world have exposed the limitations of the traditional approach of relying on crisis response as a primary risk mitigation strategy in the aviation industry. Take for instance the recent conflicts in Sudan and the Russia/Ukraine conflict. We know that multiple international commercial aircraft were destroyed in Sudan and over 20 military and civilian air assets of various types suffered significant damage. Further disruption was caused by the closure of Sudan’s airspace, which is one of the most heavily travelled flight corridors. Under sanctions imposed by Russia when the Ukraine conflict began, 400 leased aircraft were repossessed, with a further 12 stranded in Ukraine.

These events would have been entirely avoidable if the initial stages of risk management had been executed effectively. The ability to identify risk, analyse and assess it and, as a result, conduct strategic risk mitigation, is now readily accessible and available. By prioritising risk identification and analysis, assessment and risk mitigation, airlines and other aviation stakeholders can proactively anticipate potential crises before they occur.

REALISING THE VALUE OF PROACTIVE ALERTS

Through the deployment of proactive alerts and forecasts, aviation industry players can gain insights into emerging risks, such as the types of geopolitical conflicts outlined above. With today’s actionable intelligence reports, organisations are empowered to take preventative measures, such as re-routing flights or adjusting operations, thereby significantly reducing their exposure to crisis.

Proactive risk management solutions, such as our own, have proven their worth across the aviation industry. Two days prior to the conflict erupting in Sudan on the 15th April 2023, we issued an alert to all our clients stating,

”Expect increased tensions following alleged mobilisation of paramilitary Rapid Support Forces’ and advising "Operators should be prepared for continued tensions and the possibility of clashes between the Sudanese military and RSF nationwide in the coming days. It remains a realistic possibility that clashes may escalate into more prolonged fighting throughout the country. Additionally, in the event of prolonged fighting between the Sudanese military and the RSF, airports, including Khartoum International Airport (HSSK/KRT), are likely to be targeted by RSF forces in an attempt to restrict the ability of the Sundanese Air Force and in order to control key sites."

This predictive intelligence provided our clients that were operating in the area at the time with 48 hours to implement mitigation measures and minimise the impact of the disruption. Other aviation operators that were relying on more traditional crisis response methods, were not so fortunate.

Of course it’s not just war and conflict that the aviation industry need to be forewarned about. Consider the escalating environmental protests. There’s no indication that this movement is slowing down. In fact, it’s on an upward trajectory and there is a strong indication that the protestors intend to physically damage aircraft - and this is in countries that are perceived low risk and have high levels of airport security, including France, Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, UK and Norway.

We have successfully issued proactive alerts to our clients regarding environmental group protests, and by providing advanced knowledge of protest locations and timing, we have enabled our clients to proactively address potential threats and ensure the safety of their assets and personnel.

USE CASE: Schiphol Airport

On 4 November 2022, we proactively alerted our clients to a planned demonstration by XR and Greenpeace at Schiphol Airport (EHAM/AMS) to call for a ban on private flights. We were able to advise operators to anticipate potential disruption to flight operations and airport ground transport. The following day we issued a follow-up alert after hundreds of activists gained access to the airport’s apron where private jets were parked. The activists gathered around jets to prevent their movement and rode bikes around the apron. According to the Royal Netherlands Marechaussee, more than 200 activists were arrested during the protest.

This is just one example. More examples are available at https://www.ospreyflightsolutions.com/casestudy/activists-airside-airport-security-breaches-byenvironmental-protesters/

HOW CAN WE PREDICT A CRISIS?

Predictive risk management harnesses the power of data and advancements in ML and AI. AI tools can be used to aggregate incredible amounts of data from a broad spectrum of sources – with a specific focus on aviation security incidents and events. ML models are then applied to categorise the data in a structured format and AI anomaly detection tools are then deployed.

When applied to a verified security incident database, AI anomaly detection can identify trends and patterns within the global aviation operating environment at the country, airspace, and airport levels. AI anomaly detection within the global aviation operating environment can be used to identify increases/decreases in overall activity; activity occurring in new areas; new types of security incident; and unusual combinations of security incident types.

USE CASE: How we predicted and forewarned the Russian invasion of Ukraine

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 led to airspace closures and flight bans, which severely impacted civilian flight operations, particularly regarding the use of Russian and Ukrainian airspace. This meant aviation operators had to avoid notable swathes of airspace, partially due to a lack of dynamic, timely and accurate data-led risk intelligence.

New routings created further issues in terms of added time, increased fuel costs, limited divert options and additional conflict zone risks. The fallout of the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to reverberate across the global aviation operating environment. However, this conflict between Russia and Ukraine was not an unforeseen event. By using AI tools for anomaly detection within verified security incident data, the invasion itself and the likely impacts could have been and, in specific cases, were accurately forecast.

Osprey’s AI tool detected 24 anomalies within its verified security incident database in the five months prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. AI techniques such as anomaly detection within a verified security incident database allowed our aviation security practitioners to create an objective, consistent, dynamic and comprehensive picture of the environment, and situation enabling us to adequately forewarn our customers so they could take mitigation measures.

Here is an example Alert we issued on the 14th February 2022, forewarning of the invasion.

"Based on several Western governments advising against travel to Ukraine, the escalating number/type of Russian military offensive forces deployed, increased transport and combat air asset movements, and the stationing of advanced conventional SAM systems in all areas along the Ukrainian border, Osprey assesses that a full or partial invasion of Ukraine by Russia - via the Voronezh route, via Crimea and the Black Sea (with the possible use of Transnistria as well) and/or through Belarus - to be likely in the first quarter of 2022.”

THE POWER OF PROACTIVE ALERTS AND FORECASTS

Our commitment to proactive risk management is evident in the high percentage of proactive alerts we provide clients. 46% of all alerts are sent ahead of a crisis or situation, enabling timely risk mitigation measures to be put in place. Additionally, our forecasts boast a 96% accuracy rate, with the majority of the remaining 4% representing alerts proving to be accurate, but occurring just outside the predicted timeframe. These impressive figures demonstrate the reliability and effectiveness of our approach.

Timeline showing Osprey’s approach to the Russian invasion of Ukraine

INSURANCE PREMIUMS AND EFFECTIVE RISK MITIGATION

The impact of flight risks extends beyond operational disruptions; it also affects insurance premiums. War risk insurance, which includes coverage for social unrest damage, has experienced a drastic surge in premiums, with a 500% increase in the past year and an anticipated doubling in the coming year. Insurance providers demand that aviation industry players demonstrate the implementation of effective risk mitigation programmes to diminish their exposure. By utilising today’s proactive risk management solutions, organisations can showcase their commitment to risk reduction and potentially negotiate favourable insurance premiums.

NAVIGATING GEOPOLITICAL CONCERNS

Given the looming geopolitical concerns, particularly regarding China and Taiwan, it is crucial for aviation industry players to stay informed and prepared. Our proactive risk management solutions and services provide critical insights into evolving situations, enabling aviation industry players to assess and respond to potential threats and risks ahead of time, minimising the need to activate crisis response measures. Embracing a dedicated proactive risk management approach empowers aviation industry players to navigate turbulent times with confidence, safeguarding their interests and maintaining operational resilience.

If you want to find out more about how we developed this assessment and our leading aviation risk assessment products that you can use to gain a better understanding of the risk facing your flight operations, please get in contact today.