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Home Prices Are Appreciating, but for How Long? By Zona Horton

The appreciation of residential real estate is well above historic annual averages, according to Steve Harney, Real Estate prognosticator. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), annual appreciation since 1991 has averaged 3.8%. Here are the latest 2020 appreciation numbers from three reliable sources: • FHFA: 7.8% • CoreLogic: 7.3% • Case-Shiller: 7%

We need to keep everything in perspective with regards to home appreciation.

Following the housing crash, home values depreciated dramatically from 2007-2011. Values are still recovering from that unusually long period of falling prices. We must also realize that normal inflation has had an impact.

The pandemic caused many households to reconsider whether their current home still fulfills their lifestyle.

Their needs on the inside of the home have changed. People now want home offices, gyms, and living rooms well-suited for video conferencing. Barbara Ballinger, a freelance writer and the author of several books on real estate, recently wrote:

“While homeowners continue to want their outdoor spaces that offer a safe retreat, that appeal has shifted into other parts of the home, coupling comfort with function. In other words, homeowners want amenities for work and leisure, and they plan to enjoy them long after the pandemic.”

At the same time, concerns about the pandemic have caused many homeowners to put their plans to sell on hold. Realtor.com just released their November Monthly Housing Market Trends Report. It explains:

“Nationally, the inventory of homes for sale decreased 39.2% over the past year in November…This amounted to 490,000 fewer homes for sale compared to November of last year.”

More people buying and fewer people selling has caused home prices to escalate. However, with a vaccine on the horizon, more homeowners will be putting their houses on the market. This will better balance supply with demand and slow down the rapid appreciation.

That’s why major organizations in the housing industry are calling for much more moderate home appreciation next year. Here are the most recent forecasts for 2021: • National Association of Realtors: 4.5% • Freddie Mac: 2.6% • Fannie Mae: 2.1% • Mortgage Bankers Association: 2%

This Is NOT 2006

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains why this is nothing like 2006:

“Such a frenzy of activity, reminiscent of 2006, raises questions about a bubble and the potential for a painful crash. The answer: There’s no comparison. Back in 2006, dubious adjustable-rate mortgages taxed many buyers’ budgets. Some loans didn’t even require income documentation. Today, buyers are taking out 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fourteen years ago, there were 3.8 million homes listed for sale, and home builders were putting up about 2 million new units. Now, inventory is only about 1.5 million homes, and home builders are underproducing relative to historical averages.”

With the end of the health crisis insight, we will see price appreciation return to more normal levels next year.

However, we cannot time the market. Who would have ever predicted 2020 and in some cases, total lifestyle and workstyle changes? It’s always a great time to sell in South Florida.

Zona Horton has been successfully selling Real Estate in South Florida for over 30 years. She works for the international Keller Williams family of companies and serves Davie, Cooper City and surrounding cities. Call her for all your Real Estate needs. For information, visit www.ZonaHorton.com or send an email to zonahorton@gmail.com. ZONA HORTON, P.A., Your Resource for All Things Real Estate.

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