An Analysis of Residential Market Potential: The Linden Neighborhood Study Area

An Analysis of Residential Market Potential

The Linden Neighborhood Study Area

The City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio

August, 2017

Conducted by

ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. P.O. Box 4907 Clinton, New Jersey 08809

On Behalf of the NEIGHBORHOOD DESIGN CENTER 1445 Summit Street, #300 Columbus, Ohio 43201

ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. Post Office Box 4907 Clinton, New Jersey 08809 908 735-6336 info@ZVA.cc • www.ZVA.cc Research & Strategic Analysis

STUDY CONTENTS An Analysis of Residential Market Potential

1

Introduction Map: The Linden Neighborhood Study Area

1 2

Summary of Findings

3

—The Draw Areas—

3

—Annual Market Potential for the Linden Neighborhood Study Area—

5

—Target Markets—

8

—The Market Context—

9

—Optimum Residential Mix—

12

—Optimum Market Position: Linden Neighborhood Study Area—

13

—Market Capture—

19

—In-Unit and Building Amenities—

20

Supporting Tables Table 1: Table 2: Table 3: Table 4: Table 5: Table 6: Table 7: Table 8: Table 9:

23

Annual Market Potential For New And Existing Housing Units Average Market Potential By Lifestage And Household Type Summary Of Selected Multi-Family Rental Properties Summary Of Selected For-Sale Multi-Family and Single-Family Attached Developments Summary Of Selected Single-Family Listings Target Groups For New Multi-Family For Rent Target Groups For New Single-Family Attached For Sale Target Groups For New Urban Single-Family Detached For Sale Optimum Market Position 395 to 495 New Dwelling Units

Assumptions and Limitations Copyright

o

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AN ANALYSIS OF RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL

The Linden Neighborhood Study Area The City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio July, 2017 INTRODUCTION The analysis to determine the market potential for new and existing housing units within the Linden Neighborhood Study Area in the City of Columbus, Ohio included: delineation of the draw areas; determination of the depth of the potential market for new mixed-income housing in the Study Area; determination of the target households and the target residential mix corresponding to the housing preferences of the target households; and the optimum market position for new residential units within the Study Area.

For the purposes of this study, the Linden Neighborhood Study Area encompasses the area east of Interstate 71; south of Weber Road; west of Billiter Boulevard in the east and including the St. Stephens Center; and Interstate 670 and north of the railroad tracks (see MAP following this page).

The Linden Neighborhood Study Area is located to the north of Downtown Columbus. A major commercial corridor, Cleveland Avenue, runs diagonally through the Study Area.

The depth and breadth of the potential market for new and existing housing units within the Linden Neighborhood Study Area have been derived from the housing preferences and financial capacities of the draw area households, identified through Zimmerman/Volk Associates’ proprietary target market methodology and extensive experience with urban development and redevelopment.

AN ANALYSIS OF RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL

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The Linden Neighborhood Study Area The City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio August, 2017

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The market potential for new mixed-income housing units within the Study Area was determined by target market analysis of households in the draw areas, and included: •

Determination of the draw areas for new and existing housing units within the City of Columbus and within the Linden Neighborhood Study Area, based on historical settlement patterns, the most recent available migration data for the county, and incorporating additional data from the 2015 American Community Survey for the City of Columbus and the Study Area, as well as other market dynamics;

•

The depth and breadth of the potential housing market by tenure (rental and ownership) and by type (multi-family and single-family attached and detached units);

•

The composition of the potential housing market by lifestage (empty-nesters/retirees, traditional and non-traditional families, younger singles/couples); and

•

The incomes and financial capabilities of the potential housing market (income distribution based on

HUD’s

2017 income limits for below 30 percent

AMI,

between

30 and 60 percent AMI, between 60 and 80 percent AMI, between 80 and 100 percent AMI,

and above 100 percent AMI).

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS —THE DRAW AREAS — Analysis of migration, mobility, demographic and lifestyle characteristics of households currently living within defined draw areas is integral to the determination of the depth and breadth of the potential market for new housing within the Linden Neighborhood Study Area.

Taxpayer migration data obtained from the Internal Revenue Service provide the framework for the delineation of the draw areas—the principal counties of origin for households that are likely to move to Franklin County. These data are maintained at the county and “county equivalent” level by the Internal Revenue Service and provide a clear representation of mobility patterns. The

IRS

migration

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data have been supplemented by migration and mobility data for the City of Columbus and for Franklin County from the 2015 American Community Survey.

Based on the Franklin County migration data, the draw areas for the City of Columbus and the Linden Neighborhood Study Area have been delineated as follows: •

The local draw area, covering households currently living within the Columbus city limits.

•

The county draw area, covering households currently living elsewhere in Franklin County.

•

The regional draw area, covering households with the potential to move to the City of Columbus from Delaware, Fairfield, and Licking Counties, Ohio.

•

The national draw area, covering households with the potential to move to the City of Columbus from all other U.S. counties.

Annual Market Potential by Draw Area The Linden Neighborhood Study Area City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio City of Columbus: Balance of Franklin County: Delaware, Fairfield and Licking Counties: Balance of the U.S.:

61.4% 17.1% 4.3% 17.2%

Total:

100.0%

SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2017.

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—ANNUAL MARKET POTENTIAL FOR THE LINDEN NEIGHBORHOOD STUDY AREA— As determined by the migration and mobility analyses, an annual average of 1,400 households represent the annual potential market for new and existing housing units in the Linden Neighborhood Study Area each year over the next five years. The tenure and housing preferences of those 1,400 draw area households are shown on the following table (see also Table 1 following the text): Annual Market Potential by Tenure/Housing Type Propensities The Linden Neighborhood Study Area City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS

PERCENT OF TOTAL

Multi-family for-rent (lofts/apartments, leaseholder)

891

63.6%

Multi-family for-sale (lofts/apartments, condo/co-op ownership)

110

7.9%

Single-family attached for-sale (townhouses/live-work, fee-simple/ condominium ownership)

151

10.8%

Single-family detached for-sale (houses, fee-simple ownership)

248

17.7%

Total

1,400

100.0%

HOUSING TYPE

SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2017.

The 1,400 households that represent the potential market for new and existing rental and for-sale housing units in the Study Area have been segmented by income, based on the Columbus median family income (AMI), which, for fiscal year 2017 is $74,500 for a family of four, as follows: •

Households with incomes below 30 percent

AMI

(the majority of these households

typically qualify only for public housing or older existing units); •

Households with incomes between 30 and 60 percent of

AMI

(these households

typically qualify for new affordable rental housing or heavily subsidized ownership housing);

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•

Households with incomes between 60 and 80 percent of

AMI

(these households

typically qualify for new workforce or affordable rental housing or subsidized ownership housing); •

Households with incomes between 80 and 100 percent

AMI

(these households

typically qualify for new rentals or less-expensive for-sale housing); and •

Households with incomes above 100 percent

AMI

(these households generally have

sufficient incomes to rent or purchase market-rate housing).

The segmentation by income of the 1,400 target households, combined with their tenure and housing type propensities, are detailed on the following table: Tenure/Housing Type Propensities by Income Annual Average Market Potential For New and Existing Housing Units The Linden Neighborhood Study Area City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio HOUSING TYPE

. . . . . . . . . HOUSEHOLDS . . . . . . . .

NUMBER PERCENT

Multi-family for-rent (lofts/apartments, leaseholder) 231 < 30% AMI 142 30% to 60% AMI 168 60% to 80% AMI 82 80% to 100% AMI 268 > 100% AMI Multi-family for-rent total 891 Multi-family for-sale (lofts/apartments, condo/co-op ownership) 25 < 30% AMI 15 30% to 60% AMI 19 60% to 80% AMI 8 80% to 100% AMI 43 > 100% AMI Multi-family for-sale total 110 Single-family attached for-sale (townhouses, fee-simple ownership) 35 < 30% AMI 23 30% to 60% AMI 29 60% to 80% AMI 14 80% to 100% AMI 50 > 100% AMI Single-family attached for-sale total 151

16.5% 10.1% 12.0% 5.9% 19.1% 63.6% 1.8% 1.0% 1.4% 0.6% 3.1% 7.9% 2.5% 1.6% 2.1% 1.0% 3.6% 10.8%

continued o

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. . . continued from preceding page

HOUSING TYPE

. . . . . . . . . HOUSEHOLDS . . . . . . . .

NUMBER PERCENT

Single-family detached for-sale (urban cottages/houses, fee-simple ownership) 54 3.9% < 30% AMI 34 2.4% 30% to 60% AMI 51 3.6% 60% to 80% AMI 24 1.7% 80% to 100% AMI 85 6.1% > 100% AMI Single-family detached for-sale total 248 17.7% Grand Total

1,400

100.0%

NOTE: For fiscal year 2017, the Columbus, OH HUD Metro FMR Area Median Family Income for a family of four is $74,500.

SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2017.

Summarizing the incomes and financial capabilities of the 1,400 target households, 24.6 percent (345 households) have incomes at 30 percent or less than the

AMI;

15.3 percent (214 households)

between 30 and 50 percent AMI; 19.1 percent (267 households) between 50 and 80 percent AMI; 9.1 percent (158 households) between 80 and 100 percent

AMI;

and 31.9 percent (446 households)

above 100 percent AMI. With an estimated 2017 median income of $27,166 for the Linden Neighborhood Study Area, a significant number of current residents would require tax credits and/or subsidies to afford new development. The target markets for new development in the Study Area therefore include a mix of current residents, many of whom would require affordable housing, and households that would be moving to new dwelling units from elsewhere in Columbus, from elsewhere in the county, and from elsewhere in the region and balance of the United States, some of whom may also require affordable housing.

Successful mixed-income new development must integrate the existing less-affluent population with new target renters, many of whom are likely to have higher incomes, in a compatible way. Nearly 69 percent of the potential market-rate renter market is comprised of younger singles and couples; most of these younger households will be likely to lease studio or one-bedroom units. The family households that comprise the potential market will likely require significantly larger units, potentially three-, four-, or even five-bedrooms. In addition to requiring different unit types and

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configurations, families and younger singles and couples often have conflicting lifestyles, which must be considered in building and neighborhood design.

—TARGET MARKETS— The recent protracted ownership housing slump has contributed to a measurable shift in market preferences from home ownership to rental dwelling units, particularly among younger households, yielding a higher share of consumer preference for multi-family rentals even among relatively affluent consumers than would have been typical a decade ago. At the same time, there has been a significant shift in preferences from suburban subdivisions towards mixed-use, walkable neighborhoods.

This shift has been driven by the convergence of the preferences of the two largest generations in the history of America: the Baby Boomers (currently estimated at 74 million), born between 1946 and 1964, and the estimated 88 million Millennials, who were born from 1977 to 1996 and, in 2010, surpassed the Boomers in population.

The convergence of two generations of this size—

simultaneously reaching a point when housing in walkable neighborhoods matches their life stage— is unprecedented.

In addition to their shared preference for walkable urban living, the Boomers and Millennials are changing housing markets in multiple ways. In contrast to the traditional family (married couples with children) that comprised the typical post-war American household, Boomers and Millennials are households of predominantly singles and couples. As a result, nationally, the home-buying market now contains more than 63 percent one- and two-person households, and the 37 percent of the homebuyers that could be categorized as family households are equally likely to be nontraditional (e.g.—single parents or unrelated couples of the same sex with one or more children, adults caring for younger siblings, to grandparents with custody of grandchildren) as traditional families. A major consequence of this evolution is that mixed-income development is now more likely to succeed than when suburban preferences dominated the housing market.

As determined by the target market analysis, the annual potential market (covering households of all incomes) for new and existing housing units in the Linden Neighborhood Study Area can be characterized by general lifestage and household type as follows (see also Table 2 following the text): •

Younger singles and childless couples: 58.2 percent;

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•

Traditional and non-traditional family households: 28.9 percent; and

•

Empty nesters and retirees: 12.9 percent.

At over 58 percent, younger singles and couples make up the largest share of the market for new housing in the Study Area. Among the principal factors in the larger share of the market held by younger households are: •

Their higher mobility rates—young people tend to move much more frequently than older people;

•

Their strong preference for urban dwelling units; and

•

Their strong preference for rental apartments, in part because many of them do not have sufficient funds for a down payment and in part because, since the collapse of the housing market in 2008, many of them remain skeptical about the value of owning versus renting.

Family households represent just under 29 percent of the market for new dwelling units in the Study Area. Households with children are now increasingly diverse and in many urban areas are largely non-traditional families, notably single parents with one or two children.

The smallest general market segment, at 12.9 percent of the annual potential market for new housing units in the Study Area, is comprised of older households (predominantly empty nesters and retirees). A significant number of these households have adult children who no longer live in the family home; a small percentage are retired, with income from savings supplemented by social security, and for some, pensions, although the majority are still working.

—THE MARKET CONTEXT— Summary information for rental and for-sale properties located in or near the Linden Neighborhood Study Area is provided as follows: for rental properties, see Table 3, and for for-sale properties, see Tables 4 and 5, following the text.

Walk Score, a number between 0 and 100 denoting the walkability of a specific address or neighborhood, has grown in importance as a value criterion. Walk Scores above 90 indicate a “Walker’s Paradise,” where daily errands do not require a car. Walk Scores between 70 and 90 are

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considered to be very walkable, where most errands can be accomplished on foot. Walk Scores below 50 indicate that most or almost all errands require an automobile.

The highest Walk Score of the surveyed rental properties is 86, very walkable, the rating for the East Village in the neighborhood of Indianola Terrace, followed by 85, the rating for the Arena Crossing Apartments and the Flats on Vine in the Arena District. However, the Walk Score of most of the rental properties included in the survey register below 80.

The Walk Score for the Linden

Neighborhood Study Area ranges from 40 to 70.

—MULTI-FAMILY RENTAL PROPERTIES— Summary information by bedroom size for the surveyed rental properties follows.

—Studios (3 Properties)— •

Rents for studios start at $995 per month at Phase II of Liberty Place Apartments on Liberty Street in the Brewery District.

•

The highest studio rent is $2,079 per month at the Arena Crossing Apartments, on North Front Street in the Arena District.

•

Studios range in size from approximately 508 square feet at Flats on Vine, also in the Arena District on Vine Street, to 644 square feet at Arena Crossing.

•

Studio rents per square foot fall between $1.70 (Liberty Place) and $3.23 (Arena Crossing).

—One-Bedroom Units (13 Properties)—

•

Rents for one-bedroom units start at $667 per month at Latitude Five25 on Sawyer Boulevard in the Near East Side.

•

The highest one-bedroom rent is $2,084 per month at Flats II on Broadbelt Lane in the Arena District.

•

One-bedroom units range in size from 545 square feet at Latitude Five25 to 1,094 square feet at the Foundry at Jeffrey Park in the Short North.

•

One-bedroom rents per square foot fall between $1.07 (Latitude Five 25) and $2.36 (Flats II).

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—Two-Bedroom Units (15 Properties)— •

Rents for two-bedroom units start at $785 per month at Latitude Five25.

•

The highest two-bedroom rent is $3,698 per month at Flats II.

•

Two-bedroom units range in size from approximately 730 square feet at Latitude Five25 to 1,865 square feet at Annex West at LC RiverSouth on South Front Street in the River South District.

•

Two-bedroom rents per square foot fall between $1.05 (Latitude Five 25) and $2.86 (Flats II).

—Three-Bedroom Units (3 Properties)—

•

Rents for three-bedroom units start at $1,649 per month at The River in Olentangy Village on North High Street in Clintonville.

•

The highest three-bedroom rent is $2,045 per month in Phase II of Liberty Place.

•

Three-bedroom units are as small as 1,200 square feet at the East Village on East 11th Avenue in Indianola Terrace and are as large as 1,697 square feet at Phase I of Liberty Place.

•

Three-bedroom rents per square foot fall between $1.18 at Phase I of Liberty Place and $1.50 at the East Village.

—Multi-Family and Single Family Attached For-Sale Properties—

Table 4 provides detailed information on numerous for-sale properties, both condominiums and townhouses, resales and new construction, on the market in July 2017. Forty-three individual units in 11 separate properties in Downtown Columbus were listed by the Multiple Listing Service in July 2017 with asking prices ranging from $156,900 for a 748-square-foot, one-bedroom/one-bath condominium in the York on High (with a Walk Score of 94, highest of the listings) to $2,199,000 for a 4,780-square-foot, three-bedroom/four-and-a-half bath condominium in Burnham Square, with a Walk Score of 67. The Walk Scores of the rest of the resale listings were as high as 91 and no lower than 52.

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Nine properties are marketing new units, ranging from $299,900 for a 2,385-square-foot onebedroom/one-and-a-half bath townhouse at Burwell Court in the Short North, with a Walk Score of 90 and where half the units have been sold, to $1,077,000 for a 2,660-square-foot two-bedroom/twoand-a-half-bath unit in Parks Edge Condominiums in Downtown, where 69 condominiums and townhouses are being marketed and which has a Walk Score of 58.

New construction is also taking place in Harrison West and Grandview Heights. The Concord on Pennsylvania Avenue in Harrison West is marketing two-bedroom/two-bath condominiums within a narrow price band of $330,000 to $338,000 ($279 to $293 per square foot). Only one unit has been sold. Two attached units are also being sold in Harrison West, priced at $440,000, with the fourbedroom unit containing 1,824 square feet and the three-bedroom unit 1,913 square feet ($230 to $241 per square foot).

New condominiums are also being sold at 828 at the Yard in Grandview Heights, where twobedroom/two-bath models are priced between $425,000 and $499,000 for 1,400 to 1,570 square feet of living space ($304 to $308). A two-bedroom/two-and-a-half bath townhouse, with nearly 1,600 square feet, is priced at $495,000 at Homes on Pullman Way ($311 per square foot).

—Single Family Detached For-Sale Properties— Table 5 provides information on current listings of single-family detached houses in several neighborhoods in and around the Linden Neighborhood Study Area. Over 30 individual houses were listed by the Multiple Listing Service in July 2017 with asking prices ranging from $50,000 for a 912square-foot, two-bedroom/one-bath house built in 1949, to $145,000 for a 2,231-square-foot, threebedroom/two-bath house in Kenmore Park, built in 1957. Most of the resale houses were built in the 1940s and 1950s, although a few were built prior to 1940.

—OPTIMUM RESIDENTIAL MIX— A total of 350 (or 39 percent) of the 891 target households who represent the annual potential market for new rental units in the Linden Neighborhood Study Area have incomes above 80 percent AMI

and represent the potential for new market-rate rental units (reference again Table 1). A total of

231 (or 26 percent) have incomes below 30 percent

AMI

and would require heavily subsidized

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apartments. The remaining 310 households (35 percent), with incomes between 30 and 80 percent AMI,

generally represent the market for tax-credit or otherwise subsidized units.

A total of 224 (or 44 percent) of the 509 target households who represent the annual potential market for new ownership units in the Linden Neighborhood Study Area have incomes above 80 percent

AMI

and represent the potential for new market-rate ownership units (reference again Table

1). However, because of the financing challenges associated with condominium development in lowvalue neighborhoods, and the very small market potential for that housing type, multi-family for-sale development (condominiums) has not been included in the optimum residential mix. â&#x20AC;&#x201D;OPTIMUM MARKET POSITION: LINDEN NEIGHBORHOOD STUDY AREAâ&#x20AC;&#x201D; The rents and price points for new market-rate housing units are derived from the financial capabilities and housing preferences of the 523 target households with incomes at or above 80 percent of AMI, as shown on the following table: Tenure/Housing Type Propensities by Income Target Households With Incomes at or above 80 Percent AMI Annual Average Market Potential For New and Existing Housing Units The Linden Neighborhood Study Area City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio HOUSING TYPE

. . . . . . . . . HOUSEHOLDS . . . . . . . .

NUMBER PERCENT

Multi-family for-rent (lofts/apartments, leaseholder) 82 80% to 100% AMI 268 > 100% AMI Multi-family for-rent total 350

15.7% 51.2% 66.9%

Single-family attached for-sale (townhouses, fee-simple ownership) 14 80% to 100% AMI 50 > 100% AMI Single-family attached for-sale total 64

2.7% 9.6% 12.3%

Single-family detached for-sale (urban cottages/houses) 24 80% to 100% AMI 85 > 100% AMI Single-family detached for-sale total 109

4.6% 16.2% 20.8%

Grand Total

523

100.0%

NOTE: For fiscal year 2017, the Columbus, OH HUD Metro FMR Area Median Family Income for a family of four is $74,500.

SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2017.

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—Multi-Family For-Rent Distribution by Rent Range— Supportable market-rate rents have been established at 25 percent of the annual gross incomes of the 350 potential renter households with incomes at or above 80 percent of the

AMI,

yielding the

distribution by rent range as shown on the following table (see also Table 6 following the text).: New Multi-Family For-Rent Distribution by Rent Range THE LINDEN NEIGHBORHOOD STUDY AREA City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio MONTHLY RENT RANGE $500–$750 $750–$1,000 $1,000–$1,250 $1,250–$1,500 $1,500–$1,750 $1,750 and up Total:

HOUSEHOLDS PER YEAR

PERCENTAGE

106 73 63 54 28 26

30.3% 20.9% 18.0% 15.4% 8.0% 7.4%

350

100.0%

SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2017.

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—Single-Family Attached For-Sale Distribution by Price Range— An annual average of 64 households per year with incomes at or above 80 percent AMI represent the target markets for newly-constructed single-family attached housing units (rowhouses) within the Linden Neighborhood Study Area (see also Table 7 following the text). Supportable price points for the rowhouses have been determined by assuming a monthly mortgage payment, excluding taxes and utilities, that does not exceed 25 percent of annual gross income, with the assumption that the down payment of 10 percent is either paid by the buyers or is subsidized, yielding the distribution shown on the following table: New Single-Family Attached For Sale Distribution by Price Range THE LINDEN NEIGHBORHOOD STUDY AREA City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio PRICE RANGE

HOUSEHOLDS PER YEAR

PERCENTAGE

$100,000–$125,000 $125,000–$150,000 $150,000–$175,000 $175,000–$200,000 $200,000–$225,000 $225,000 and up

16 15 10 9 8 6

25.0% 23.4% 15.6% 14.1% 12.5% 9.4%

64

100.0%

Total: SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2017.

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—Urban Single-Family Detached For-Sale Distribution by Price Range— An annual average of 109 households per year with incomes at or above 80 percent AMI represent the target markets for newly-constructed urban single-family detached housing units within the Linden Neighborhood Study Area (as shown on Table 8 following the text). As with the rowhouses, supportable price points for the urban houses have been determined by assuming a down payment of 10 percent, and a monthly mortgage payment, excluding taxes and utilities, that does not exceed 25 percent of annual gross income for each of the 109 households that represent the annual potential market for new detached urban houses, yielding the distribution shown on the following table: New Single-Family Attached For Sale Distribution by Price Range THE LINDEN NEIGHBORHOOD STUDY AREA City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio PRICE RANGE

HOUSEHOLDS PER YEAR

PERCENTAGE

$125,000–$150,000 $150,000–$175,000 $175,000–$200,000 $200,000–$225,000 $225,000–$250,000 $250,000 and up

26 24 18 16 13 12

23.9% 22.0% 16.5% 14.7% 11.9% 11.0%

109

100.0%

Total: SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2017.

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The optimum market position for new market-rate units within the Linden Neighborhood Study Area has therefore been established based on a variety of factors, including but not limited to: •

The lifestages, tenure and housing preferences of draw area households with incomes at or above 80 percent AMI;

•

The physical and locational assets and opportunities of the Study Area; and

•

Current residential market dynamics in the market area.

Although there are no major anchors located in the Study Area, the neighborhood’s proximity to Downtown Columbus (approximately 10 minutes), the Columbus airport (approximately 15 minutes), and Ohio State University (approximately 15 minutes) could make it attractive to new residents, especially employees with jobs in those locations, and particularly with the introduction of new construction. In addition, there are four entrances to the freeway from the Study Area, and a Bus Rapid Transit route is proposed along Cleveland Avenue, enhancing the neighborhood’s accessibility. There are several parks located throughout the Study Area, as well as the highlyregarded Columbus Alternative High School.

The optimum market position for newly-constructed/renovated market-rate housing units within the Study Area is therefore summarized on the following table (see also Table 10 following the text): Base Unit Rents, Prices and Sizes Renovation/New Construction The Linden Neighborhood Study Area City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio HOUSING TYPE

RENTS/PRICES

UNIT SIZES

PER SQ. FT.

M ULTI -F AMILY F OR -R ENT — Apartments

$675 to $1,900/month

475 to 1,500 sf

$1.27 to $1.42 psf

700 to 1,750 sf

$141 to $159 psf

900 to 1,900 sf

$133 to $139 psf

S INGLE -F AMILY A TTACHED F OR -S ALE — Row houses

$100,000 to $250,000

S INGLE -F AMILY D ETACHED F OR -S ALE — Urban cottages

$125,000 to $265,000

SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2017.

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The Linden Neighborhood Study Area The City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio August, 2017

The proposed rents and prices are in year 2017 dollars and are exclusive of location or consumeradded options or upgrades; the location and context of the new development/renovation will have an impact on achievable values.

New development/renovation: There are few vacant parcels in the Study Area of sufficient size to accommodate new rental development of any scale. The one comparatively large parcel on Cleveland Avenue, because of its relatively shallow depth, will be challenging to develop with attractive multifamily housing that would enhance the streetscape. Given the paucity of development parcels, some of the rental market potential could be realized through the residential conversion of upper floors of existing commercial buildings along Cleveland Avenue, particularly in the section of the avenue in close proximity to Ena’s Caribbean Kitchen. The addition of residential here could begin to create a walkable town center for the neighborhood.

There are several dilapidated houses on the blocks behind Ena’s, and a concentrated effort to renovate those houses worth saving, and removing the rest, would create a focus area for new development with a mix of new construction row houses and single-family houses. An expanded area for infill and renovation could run between East Hudson Street and East Weber Road to the south and north, and Cleveland Avenue and Linden Park and the Columbus Alternative High School to the east and west. Over time, values are likely to rise as new construction fills in the gaps along blocks and existing houses are renovated to match a rising values.

In the southern part of the Study Area, there is potential for a multi-family project on East 11th Avenue just east of Interstate 71, which would help support the considerable investment that has already taken place in this area. Habitat for Humanity has already constructed several new houses in southern Linden and has proposed the development of a minimum of 158 additional houses in the area over the next five years.

In general, the housing stock south of East Hudson Street is not as strong as north of Hudson.

Acquisition and renovation of some of the rowhouse buildings scattered throughout this part of the Study Area would increase buyer options with a housing type that is currently under-represented in the Study Area. The weakest streets should be targeted for redevelopment—such as East 17th Avenue and East 20th Avenue and the blocks in between. Many of these blocks contain obsolete rental

ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.

AN ANALYSIS OF RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL

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The Linden Neighborhood Study Area The City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio August, 2017

buildings that occupy a significant amount of land, which, if acquired and demolished, would create well-located development parcels for construction of new mixed-income rental buildings more consonant with the neighborhood context as well as new ownership housing.

—MARKET CAPTURE— After more than 30 years’ experience in numerous markets across the country, and in the context of the target market methodology, Zimmerman/Volk Associates has determined that an annual capture between approximately 20 and 25 percent of the potential market for new rentals, and between approximately six and eight percent of the potential market for new market-rate ownership units are achievable.

The forecast annual absorption of each housing type, based on the aforementioned market capture rates, is shown on the following table: Annual Capture of Market Potential The Linden Neighborhood Study Area City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS

ANNUAL CAPTURE RATE

ANNUAL ABSORPTION

Multi-family for-rent (lofts/apartments, leaseholder)

350

20-25%

70 - 85 units

Single-family attached for-sale (townhouses/live-work, fee-simple/ condominium ownership)

64

6-8%

3 - 5 units

Single-family detached for-sale (houses, fee-simple ownership)

109

6-8%

6 - 9 units

Total

523

HOUSING TYPE

79 - 99 units

SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2017.

Based on the forecast absorption paces outlined above, a total of 395 to 495 new mixed-income rental and for-sale dwelling units constructed within the Linden Neighborhood Study Area could be absorbed over a five-year timeframe.

These housing type-specific capture rates are well within the parameters required for feasible development. The target market capture rates of the potential renter/purchaser pools are a unique

ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.

AN ANALYSIS OF RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL

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The Linden Neighborhood Study Area The City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio August, 2017

and highly-refined measure of feasibility. Target market capture rates are not equivalent to—and should not be confused with—penetration rates or traffic conversion rates.

The target market capture rate is derived by dividing the annual forecast absorption by the number of households that have the potential to move to the site in a given year.

The penetration rate is derived by dividing the total number of dwelling units planned for a property by the total number of draw area households, sometimes qualified by income.

The traffic conversion rate is derived by dividing the total number of buyers or renters by the total number of prospects that have visited a site.

Because the prospective market for a property is more precisely defined using target market methodology, a substantially smaller number of households are qualified; as a result, target market capture rates are higher than the more grossly-derived penetration rates. The resulting higher capture rates remain within the range of feasibility.

—IN-UNIT AND BUILDING AMENITIES— Younger singles and couples, principally the Millennial generation, are the largest target market for the new market-rate housing units in the Study Area. As a group, these households exhibit strong preferences for sustainable development and green building practices.

Building security should be provided with an internet-enabled video entrance system with key fobactivated entry for residents. Unit-specific alarm security could be provided at an extra cost.

General Recommendations: In-unit amenities need not be elaborate, simply well-chosen. Renters will expect contemporary, durable finishes appropriate to urban living, as opposed to the “beige” interiors of conventional suburban multi-family housing.

•

Wherever possible, recycled and genuinely sustainable materials should be used, with an emphasis on “genuine.” Younger households can be skeptical of “greenwashing”—materials or practices that make false or only partially-true claims of sustainability. Materials that are low in volatile organic compounds (VOCs) will be important to this group.

ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.

AN ANALYSIS OF RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL

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The Linden Neighborhood Study Area The City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio August, 2017

•

Access to high-speed internet and cable television should be provided in all units. Highbandwidth internet access is becoming increasingly important—particularly to younger households—as more media are accessed via the internet rather than conventional cable or satellite providers.

•

Each unit should include at least one combination duplex outlet/USB charging socket, typically located at the dry end of the kitchen counter.

•

Bamboo flooring in the living areas; carpeting in the bedrooms.

•

Lighting fixtures capable of accommodating compact fluorescent or

LED

bulbs. All fixtures,

faucets and lighting should be clean, minimalist and contemporary.

•

Contemporary-design ceiling fans in living room and bedrooms.

•

Washer/dryer hook-ups.

•

Studio apartments should be designed without interior walls, with the exception of the bathroom, and with as much closet and storage space as possible.

•

Kitchens: Although until recently, granite kitchen countertops have been the norm, “green” alternatives should be used to match the target markets’ environmental sensitivity. These include products which are composed of recycled materials, quartz composite materials, or even the new terrazzo products. Durability and maintenance issues should be the criteria when selecting from among these relatively-new materials. For example, “solid surface” materials susceptible to damage by hot cookware should be avoided. Integral or undermount stainless sinks. White or black appliances, including dishwasher, microwave, refrigerator, and stove. Plain-front cabinetry. Tile or linoleum flooring—as opposed to vinyl—because it is made from renewable materials; linoleum is now available in a variety of modern designs and styles in keeping with today’s market preferences.

ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.

AN ANALYSIS OF RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL

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The Linden Neighborhood Study Area The City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio August, 2017

•

Bathrooms: Vessel-style sinks, low-flow toilets. Bathrooms in studios should be compact, with a shower compartment only.

The one-bedroom units should have a shower

compartment only, and the two-bedroom/one-bath units should have a combination tub/shower unit. Bathroom access in the one-bedroom apartments should never be through the bedroom. In the two-bedroom apartments, the master bath does not require a bathtub, but should have an upgraded shower enclosure with upgraded showerheads, i.e.—rainshowerheads. The second bath should contain a combination tub/shower unit.

o

ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.

Table 1

Annual Market Potential For New And Existing Housing Units Distribution Of Annual Average Number Of Draw Area Households With The Potential To Move Within/To The Linden Neighborhood Study Area Each Year Over The Next Five Years Based On Housing Preferences And Income Levels

The Linden Neighborhood Study Area City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio

City of Columbus; Balance of Franklin County; Delaware, Fairfield, and Licking Counties, Ohio; Balance of U.S. Draw Areas Annual Number Of Households With The Potential To Rent/Purchase Within The City of Columbus

88,665

Annual Number Of Target Market Households With Potential To Rent/Purchase Within The Linden Neighborhood Study Area

1,400

Annual Market Potential Below 30% AMI

30% to 60% AMI

60% to 80% AMI

80% to 100% AMI

Above 100% AMI

Subtotal

Multi-Family For-Rent:

231

142

168

82

268

891

Multi-Family For-Sale:

25

15

19

8

43

110

Single-Family Attached For-Sale:

35

23

29

14

50

151

Single-Family Detached For-Sale:

54

34

51

24

85

248

345 24.6%

214 15.3%

267 19.1%

128 9.1%

446 31.9%

100.0%

Total: Percent:

1,400

Note: For fiscal year 2017, Columbus, OH HUD Metro FMR Area Median Family Income for a family of four is $74,500.

SOURCE: The Nielsen Company; Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.

Table 2

Annual Market Potential By Lifestage And Household Type Derived From Purchase And Rental Propensities Of Draw Area Households With The Potential To Move Within/To The Linden Neighborhood Study Area Each Year Over The Next Five Years Based On Housing Preferences And Income Levels

The Linden Neighborhood Study Area City of Columbus Franklin County, Ohio

Total

Below 30% AMI

60% to 80% AMI

80% to 100% AMI

Above 100% AMI

Number of Households:

30% to 60% AMI

1,400

345

214

267

128

446

Empty Nesters & Retirees

12.9%

13.0%

12.6%

13.1%

9.4%

13.7%

Traditional & Non-Traditional Families

28.9%

29.6%

29.0%

31.1%

32.8%

26.0%

Younger Singles & Couples

58.2%

57.4%

58.4%

55.8%

57.8%

60.3%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

Note: For fiscal year 2017, Columbus, OH HUD Metro FMR Area Median Family Income for a family of four is $74,500.

SOURCE: The Nielsen Company; Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.

Table 3

Page 1 of 4

Summary Of Selected Multi-Family Rental Properties City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio April, 2017

Property (Date Opened) Address

Number of Units

Unit Type

Reported Base Rent

Reported Unit Size

Rent per Sq. Ft.

Additional Information

. . . . . Near East Side . . . . .

Latitude Five25 (1962; 2011) 525 Sawyer Boulevard Milhaus Management 78 Walk score

392 1br/1ba 2br/1ba

$667 $779 $785 $939

to to

545 to 730 730 to 900

$1.07 to $1.22 $1.04 to $1.08

710 to 1,039 944

$1.34 to $1.40 $1.35 to $1.49 $1.30 to $1.31

99% occupancy Fitness center, billiard room laundry facilities & controlled access.

. . . . . Brewery District . . . . .

Brewers Yard Apts (2003) 100 Frankfort Square Elford Development 81 Walk score

303 1br/1ba 1br/1ba/den 2br/2ba

Liberty Place Apts (2013) 250 Liberty Street Winther Investments 72 Walk score

$995 $1,395 $1,275 $1,410 $1,395 $1,695

342 1br/1ba 1br/1ba/study 2br/1ba 2br/2ba 3br/2ba Studio/1ba 1br/1ba 1br/1ba/study 2br/2ba 3br/2ba

SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.

$1,045 $1,415 $1,245 $1,650 $1,410 $1,595 $1,755 $1,995 $995 $1,150 $1,415 $1,495 $1,565 $1,595 $1,895 $2,045

to to to

1,074 to 1,291

Phase I to 664 to 903 to 1,033 976 1,150 1,291 1,697 Phase II 584 to 735 908 to 934 1,063 to 1,168 1,275 1,616 to

to

to to to

$1.57 to $1.57 $1.21 to $1.60 $1.44 $1.36 to $1.39 $1.18 $1.70 $1.56 to $1.56 $1.47 to $1.60 $1.37 to $1.49 $1.27

100% occupancy Clubhouse, fitness center, pool, sundeck, lounge, movie theater, aerobics/yoga room.

100% occupancy Business center, clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa & BBQ/picnic area.

Table 3

Page 2 of 4

Summary Of Selected Multi-Family Rental Properties City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio April, 2017

Property (Date Opened) Address

Number of Units

Unit Type

Reported Base Rent

Reported Unit Size

Rent per Sq. Ft.

Additional Information

. . . . . Arena District . . . . .

Arena Crossing Apts (2002) 423 North Front Street 85 Walk score

252 Studio/1ba 1br/1ba 2br/2ba

Flats II (2014) 250 Broadbelt Lane 69 Walk score

120

Flats on Vine (2011) 205 Vine Street 85 Walk score

226

1br/1ba 2br/2ba

Studio/1ba 1br/1ba 2br/2ba

$1,016 $2,079 $1,192 $1,953 $1,781 $3,197

to

$1,180 $2,084 $2,183 $3,698

to

$1,210 $1,346 $1,213 $1,543 $1,799 $2,322

to

to to

to

to to

510 to 644 720 to 982 1,146 to 1,673

$1.99 to $3.23 $1.66 to $1.99 $1.55 to $1.91

607 to 882 1,046 to 1,292

$1.94 to $2.36 $2.09 to $2.86

508 to 517 722 to 887 988 to 1,242

$2.38 to $2.60 $1.68 to $1.74 $1.82 to $1.87

96% occupancy Business center, lounge, pool, fitness center, outdoor grill & laundry facilities.

98% occupancy Fitness center, Private Balconies

97% occupancy Fitness center, pool, whirlpool, bbq/picnic area & lounge.

. . . . . River South District . . . . .

LC RiverSouth (2009) 186 South Front Street Lifestyle Communities 81 Walk score

214 1br/1ba 2br/2ba

1br/1ba 2br/2.5ba 2br/3ba

SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.

Annex East $1,127 to 725 $1,176 $1,565 to 980 to $1,656 1,135

$1.55 to $1.62 $1.46 to $1.60

Annex West 661 to 1,255 to 1,687 to 1,612 to 1,865

$1.93 $1.35 to $1.69 $1.38 to $1.57

$1,275 $2,118 $2,270 $2,229 $2,930

99% occupancy Fitness center, sundeck, controlled access & pet friendly.

Table 3

Page 3 of 4

Summary Of Selected Multi-Family Rental Properties City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio April, 2017

Property (Date Opened) Address

Number of Units

Unit Type

Reported Base Rent

Reported Unit Size

Rent per Sq. Ft.

Additional Information

. . . . . Short North . . . . .

The Foundry at Jeffrey Park (2015) 233 East 1st Avenue Wagenbrenner Development 64 Walk score

276

The Legacy at Jeffrey Park (2017) 773 Waldron Street Wagenbrenner Development 60 Walk score

266

1br/1ba 1br/1.5ba TH 2br/2.5ba

1br/1ba 2br/2ba

$1,125 $1,700 $1,375 $1,885 $1,995

to

$1,345 $1,575 $1,796

to

to

98% occupancy Courtyard swimming pool, surface and covered parking, pet friendly.

623 to 1,094 800 1,094 to 1,482

$1.55 to $1.81 $1.72 $1.35 to $1.72

671 to 983 1,191

$1.60 to $2.00 $1.51

Coming soon.

Swimming pool, clubhouse, barbecue area & pet friendly.

$1.09 to $1.18 $1.12 to $1.28

98% occupancy Swimming pool, fitness center, bike trail access, garage parking, laundry facilities, controlled access, & cat friendly.

. . . . . Clintonville . . . . .

Olentangy Village (1989) 2907 North High Street 81 Walk score

612 The Village 1br/1ba $699 to 590 to $779 715 2br/1ba $899 to 700 to $969 865 The River/The Ravine 1br/1ba $949 to 694 to $999 910 2br/1ba $1,199 to 868 to $1,279 989 3br/2ba $1,649 to 1,303 to $1,749 1,465 The Lofts on High 1br/1ba $959 to 667 to $979 755

SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.

$1.10 to $1.37 $1.29 to $1.38 $1.19 to $1.27 $1.30 to $1.44

Table 3

Page 4 of 4

Summary Of Selected Multi-Family Rental Properties City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio April, 2017

Property (Date Opened) Address

Number of Units

Unit Type

Reported Base Rent

Reported Unit Size

Rent per Sq. Ft.

Additional Information

. . . . . Bridgeview . . . . .

Sunbury Ridge (2000) 3030 Sunbury Ridge Drive Cortland 6 Walk score

226 1br/1ba 2br/1ba 2br/1.5ba

$755 $941 $1,000 $1,220 $1,088 $1,399

to to to

600 to 720 900 to 930 1,000 to 1,400

$1.26 to $1.31 $1.11 to $1.31 $1.00 to $1.09

97% occupancy Swimming pool, sundeck, bark park, fire pit, bike path. & grilling station

. . . . . Maize-Morse/Forest Park East . . . . .

Westerville Park Apartments 104 (1972;2016) 4565 Northland Square Drive East Cap City Properties 62 Walk score

Timber Trail Townhomes (1973;2016) 2414 Timbertrail Drive South Cap City Properties 56 Walk score

1br/1ba 2br/1ba 2br/1.5ba

$755 $845 to $885 $950

585 702 1,136

$1.29 $1.20 to $1.26 $0.84

102 2br/1ba

$875

865

$1.01

618 to 764 700 to 980

$1.17 to $1.41 $1.22 to $1.64

98% occupancy Courtyard, courtyard, & pet friendly.

99% occupancy Swimming pool, courtyard, laundry facilities, & pet friendly.

. . . . . Indianola Terrace . . . . .

Grant Commons (2015) 305 E 11th Ave Wagenbrenner Development 81 Walk score

90

The East Village (2010) 253 East 12th Avenue Legacy Management 86 Walk score

82

1br/1ba 2br/1ba

2br/1ba 3br/2ba

SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.

$870 to $895 $1,150 to $1,200

$1,400 $1,800

1,000 1,200

$1.40 $1.50

99% occupancy Assigned parking, washer/dryer & pet friendly.

100% occupancy Upscale interiors, secure parking lot, & pet friendly.

Table 4

Page 1 of 4

Summary Of Selected For-Sale Multi-Family And Single-Family Attached Developments Greater Downtown Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio July, 2017

Development (Date Opened) Developer/Builder/Address

Unit Type

Base Price Range

Unit Size Range

Base Price Per Sq. Ft.

Total Units

Walk Score

25

94

54

75

21

91

54

81

68

68

23

89

48

52

…Resale Listings: Downtown…

≈ The York on High (1920;2008) 1276 North High Street Re/Max City Center Arena District Lofts (2005) 221 North Front Street Nationwide Realty

Ohio Lofts (1920) 139 East Main Street Levi & Associates Carlyle's Watch (2007) 100 East Gay Street Urban Loft Ventures

The Buggyworks (1902;2005) 448 West Nationwide Blvd Kyle Katz

One Ninety Nine (2008) 199 South Fifth Street Vision Development

1br/1ba

…Condominium… $156,900

$213

1br/1ba 2br/2ba 2br/3ba

…Lofts… $199,900 $425,000 $499,900

956 1,762 3,284

$209 $241 $152

1br/1ba 1br/1ba

…Lofts… $200,000 $209,000

848 883

$236 $237

811 770 770

$269 $292 $299

692 692 1,199 1,596 2,068

$326 $332 $317 $325 $328

807

$334

1,000 1,296

$325 $285

1br/1ba 1br/1ba 1br/1ba

…Condominiums… $217,900 $225,000 $230,000

…Loft Condominiums…

1br/1ba $225,500 1br/1ba $229,900 2br/2ba $379,900 2br/3ba $519,000 2br/3ba $679,000

1br/1ba

…Penthouse… $269,900

…Condominiums…

1br/2ba $325,000 2br/2ba $369,900 Atrium Lofts (1910;2006) 106 North High Street NAI Ohio Equities

748

2br/2ba 3br/3ba 3br/2ba 2br/3ba 2br/3ba

SOURCE: Multiple Listing Service; Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.

…Condominiums… $284,900 $334,900 $369,900 $399,000 $424,999

1,428 2,047 1,911 2,542 2,524

$200 $164 $194 $157 $168

Table 4

Page 2 of 4

Summary Of Selected For-Sale Multi-Family And Single-Family Attached Developments Greater Downtown Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio July, 2017

Development (Date Opened) Developer/Builder/Address

Unit Type

Base Price Range

Unit Size Range

Base Price Per Sq. Ft.

Total Units

Walk Score

58

91

113

60

98

67

460 21

85 89

17

89

…Resale Listings Downtown (continued)…

≈ Hartman Lofts (1898;2006) 150 East Main Street Plaza Properties Miranova (1999) One Miranova Place Pizzuti Cos

Burnham Square Condos (2005) 250-251 Daniel Burnham Square MKSK

300 West Spring Street Nationwide Realty

2br/2ba 2br/2ba

…Condominiums… $329,500 $399,900

1,180 1,457

$279 $274

1br/2ba 2br/2.5ba 1br/2ba

…Condominiums… $355,000 $425,000 $445,000

1,423 1,875 1,413

$249 $227 $315

2br/3ba

…Penthouse… $1,995,000

4,031

$495

2br/2ba 2br/2ba 2br/2ba

…Condominiums… $424,900 $435,000 $449,900

1,445 1,404 1,569

$294 $310 $287

2br/2ba

…Townhome… $585,000

1,958

$299

1br/1ba 2br/2ba 2br/2ba 2br/2ba

…Lofts… $439,000 $555,000 $595,000 $598,000

1,272 1,992 1,960 2,576

$345 $279 $304 $232

1,904 2,486 2,384 2,237 4,780

$368 $392 $583 $755 $460

2br/2ba 2br/3ba 3br/2ba 1br/2.5ba 3br/4.5ba Neighborhood Launch (2017) 50 North 4th Street Edwards & Eclipse R.E. Group

…Condominiums… $699,900 $975,000 $1,390,000 $1,690,000 $2,199,000

Contemporary (2011) …Townhome…

2br/3ba $519,000 Park (2008) …Townhome…

4br/5ba $799,900

SOURCE: Multiple Listing Service; Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.

1,750

2,435

$297

$329

Table 4

Page 3 of 4

Summary Of Selected For-Sale Multi-Family And Single-Family Attached Developments Greater Downtown Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio July, 2017

Unit Type

Development (Date Opened) Developer/Builder/Address

Base Price Range

Unit Size Range

Base Price Per Sq. Ft.

Total Units

Walk Score

69

58

460

85

13

86

24

92

8

90

10

87

. . . . . New Construction Listings: Downtown . . . . .

Parks Edge Condominiums (2017) 250 West Spring Street Nationwide Realty

…Condominiums… $440,000 to $1,077,000 1br/1.5ba $532,000 2br/3ba $989,000

1,505 to 2,660 1,773 3,275

$292 $405 $300 $302

…Townhomes… $462,000 to $599,000 3br/3.5ba $685,000 3br/3ba $785,000

1,563 to 1,980 2,281 2,686

$296 $303 $300 $292

2br/2.5ba

2br/2.5ba

Neighborhood Launch (2017) 50 North Fourth Street Edwards & Eclipse R.E. Group

The 6th Street Mews Building (2017) …Townhomes…

3br/2.5ba $511,900 1,637 3br/3ba $532,395 1,684

$313 $316

. . . . . Resale Listing: Short North . . . . .

The Dakota (2007) 845 North High Street Apex Realty

1br/1ba

…Condominium… $199,900

770

$217

. . . . . New Construction Listings: Short North . . . . .

Burwell Court (2017) Burwell Invest. LLC

Aston Estates (2016) Snyder Barker Invest.

1br/1.5ba 1br/1.5ba 1br/1.5ba 1br/1.5ba

…Townhomes… $299,900 $299,900 $319,900 $319,900

1,385 1,362 1,444 1,424

$217 $220 $222 $225

2br/3ba 2br/3.5ba 2br/3ba 2br/3ba

…Townhomes… $566,644 $578,019 $578,650 $621,000

1,877 1,877 1,843 1,961

$302 $308 $314 $317

SOURCE: Multiple Listing Service; Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.

Table 4

Page 4 of 4

Summary Of Selected For-Sale Multi-Family And Single-Family Attached Developments Greater Downtown Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio July, 2017

Unit Size Range

Base Price Per Sq. Ft.

Unit Type

Base Price Range

3br/3.5ba 3br/3.5ba 3br/3.5ba 2br/4ba 2br/3.5ba 3br/3.5ba

Phase II …Townhomes… $486,000 $489,900 $489,900 $605,000 $612,300 $674,500

1,632 1,632 1,632 2,011 2,011 2,059

$298 $300 $300 $301 $304 $328

3br/3.5ba

Phase I …Townhome… $980,580

3,324

$295

Development (Date Opened) Developer/Builder/Address . . . . . New Construction Listings Continued: Short North . . . . .

25 Jeffrey Park (2016) Mulberry

Total Units

Walk Score

8

53

6

63

2

55

35

58

45

54

. . . . . New Construction Listings: Harrison West . . . . .

The Concord (2017) Pennsylvania Avenue IDX

1097-1099 Oregon Avenue (2017) Roby Realty

2br/2ba 2br/2ba 2br/2ba 2br/2ba 2br/2ba

…Condominiums… $330,000 $335,000 $335,000 $335,000 $338,000

1,181 1,181 1,181 1,181 1,155

$279 $284 $284 $284 $293

4br/3.5ba 3br/4.5ba

…Townhomes… $440,000 $440,000

1,824 1,913

$241 $230

. . . . . New Construction Listings: Grandview Heights . . . . .

828 at the Yard (2017) 828 Bobcat Avenue & 872 Burr Loop Nationwide Realty Homes on Pullman Way (2017) Wagenbrenner

…Condominium floorplans price range…

2br/2ba $425,000 to 1,400 to $499,000 1,570

2br/2.5ba

SOURCE: Multiple Listing Service; Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.

…Townhome… $495,000

1,590

$304 to $318

$311

Table 5

Page 1 of 2

Summary of Selected Single-Family Listings Linden Neighborhood Study Area, City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio July, 2017

Property Address

Lot size

Sale/Asking Price

Unit Size

Price psf

Configuration

Walk Score

Year Built

$55 $78 $63 $82 $52 $60

2br/1ba 2br/1ba 2br/1ba 2br/1ba 3br/1ba 3br/1ba

49 48 51 42 42 56

1949 1948 1948 1949 1957 1951

$56 $41 $55 $51 $59 $46 $63 $82 $53 $64

2br/1ba 2br/1ba 3br/1ba 3br/1ba 2br/1ba 3br/1ba 2br/1ba 3br/1ba 4br/3ba 4br/2ba

50 61 48 46 45 66 48 61 57 48

1929 1913 1955 1941 1940 1929 1925 1942 1915 1949

$65 $42

3br/1ba 3br/2ba

68 70

1941 1957

$66 $66 $66 $66 $71 $53 $77

3br/1ba 3br/1ba 3br/1ba 3br/1ba 2br/1ba 3br/1ba 2br/1ba

49 52 52 49 49 53 53

1949 1945 1949 1949 1949 1948 1949

$47

3br/1ba

48

1928

…Almada…

2784 Osceola Avenue 2701 Azelda Street 2736 Azelda Street 2585 Pontiac Street 2641 Osceola Avenue 2849 Osceola Avenue

0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.10

$50,000 $52,500 $52,500 $54,900 $58,300 $58,300

912 672 828 672 1,132 979

…North Linden…

1380 Manchester Avenue 1681 Manchester Avenue 2547 Atwood Terrace 1269 Minnesota Avenue 1274 Aberdeen Avenue 1591 Republic Avenue 1471 East Weber Road 2456 Lexington Avenue 1677 Genessee Avenue 1278 East Weber Road

0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.11 0.12 0.11 0.22

$52,000 $52,900 $54,800 $55,000 $56,490 $58,000 $67,500 $74,900 $88,500 $119,900

936 1,285 1,003 1,075 957 1,274 1,064 919 1,660 1,879

…South Linden…

911 East 13th Avenue 1011 East 13th Avenue

0.12 0.16

$65,000 $69,900

994 1,656

…North Grasmere…

2579 Howey Road 2560 Howey Road 2554 Howey Road 2573 Howey Road 2605 Howey Road 2768 Atwood Terrace 2777 Howey Road

0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.14

$52,500 $52,500 $52,500 $52,500 $57,000 $58,300 $59,900

800 800 800 800 800 1,099 777

…East Glen Echo…

2681 Beulah Road

0.10

$59,000

SOURCE: Multiple Listing Service; Walkscore.com; Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.

1,248

Table 5

Page 2 of 2

Summary of Selected Single-Family Listings Linden Neighborhood Study Area, City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio July, 2017

Property Address

Lot size

Sale/Asking Price

Unit Size

Price psf

Configuration

Walk Score

Year Built

$57

3br/1ba

56

1954

$72

3br/1ba

56

1953

$58 $65

3br/1ba 3br/2ba

57 52

1929 1957

$79

4br/2ba

68

1941

3br/1ba

41

1927

…Sunnyside…

2885 Hiawatha Street

0.09

$63,500

1,107

…Homestead Heights…

1124 East 26th Avenue

0.14

$70,000

979

…Kenmore Park…

1580 East Weber Road 2843 Desden Street

0.15 0.12

$79,000 $145,000

1,368 2,231 …Drexel Park…

966 East 13th Avenue

0.22

$79,900

1,017

…Hiawatha Park Place…

2307 Pontiac Street

0.13

$84,000

SOURCE: Multiple Listing Service; Walkscore.com; Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.

853

$98

Table 6

Page 1 of 2

Target Groups For New Multi-Family For Rent

The Linden Neighborhood Study Area City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio

. . . . . Number of Households . . . . .

Empty Nesters & Retirees**

30% to 80% AMI†

Above 80% AMI†

Percent of Total

Total

Multi-Ethnic Empty Nesters Hometown Retirees Cosmopolitan Couples Blue-Collar Retirees Middle-Class Move-Downs Second City Seniors

1 2 8 5 2 17

2 1 13 7 3 12

3 3 21 12 5 29

0.5% 0.5% 3.2% 1.8% 0.8% 4.4%

Subtotal:

35

38

73

11.1%

e-Type Families Multi-Ethnic Families Uptown Families Multi-Cultural Families In-Town Families Inner-City Families Single-Parent Families New American Strivers

0 5 16 3 5 2 8 34

4 8 22 4 3 2 6 23

4 13 38 7 8 4 14 57

0.6% 2.0% 5.8% 1.1% 1.2% 0.6% 2.1% 8.6%

Subtotal:

73

72

145

22.0%

Traditional & Non-Traditional Families††

† For fiscal year 2017, Columbus, OH HUD Metro FMR Area Median Family Income for a family of four is $74,500. ** Predominantly one- and two-person households. †† Predominantly three -to five-person households.

SOURCE: The Nielsen Company; Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.

Table 6

Page 2 of 2

Target Groups For New Multi-Family For Rent

The Linden Neighborhood Study Area City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio

. . . . . Number of Households . . . . .

Younger Singles & Couples**

30% to 80% AMI†

Above 80% AMI†

Percent of Total

Total

The VIPs New Bohemians Small-City Singles Downtown Couples Twentysomethings Second-City Strivers Downtown Proud Multi-Ethnic Singles

21 3 9 34 56 30 37 12

59 10 9 36 55 26 38 7

80 13 18 70 111 56 75 19

12.1% 2.0% 2.7% 10.6% 16.8% 8.5% 11.4% 2.9%

Subtotal:

202

240

442

67.0%

Total Households: Percent of Total:

310 47.0%

350 53.0%

660 100.0%

100.0%

† For fiscal year 2017, Columbus, OH HUD Metro FMR Area Median Family Income for a family of four is $74,500. ** Predominantly one- and two-person households.

SOURCE: The Nielsen Company; Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.

Table 7

Page 1 of 2

Target Groups For New Single-Family Attached For Sale

The Linden Neighborhood Study Area City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio

. . . . . Number of Households . . . . .

Empty Nesters & Retirees**

30% to 80% AMI†

Above 80% AMI†

Total

Percent

Multi-Ethnic Empty Nesters Cosmopolitan Couples Blue-Collar Retirees Middle-Class Move-Downs Hometown Seniors Second City Seniors

0 0 2 1 0 2

2 2 2 1 1 1

2 2 4 2 1 3

1.7% 1.7% 3.4% 1.7% 0.9% 2.6%

Subtotal:

5

9

14

12.1%

e-Type Families Multi-Ethnic Families Uptown Families Multi-Cultural Families In-Town Families Inner-City Families Single-Parent Families New American Strivers

0 2 6 2 2 0 2 6

3 2 8 2 0 1 1 3

3 4 14 4 2 1 3 9

2.6% 3.4% 12.1% 3.4% 1.7% 0.9% 2.6% 7.8%

Subtotal:

20

20

40

34.5%

Traditional & Non-Traditional Families††

† For fiscal year 2017, Columbus, OH HUD Metro FMR Area Median Family Income for a family of four is $74,500. ** Predominantly one- and two-person households. †† Predominantly three -to five-person households.

SOURCE: The Nielsen Company; Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.

Table 7

Page 2 of 2

Target Groups For New Single-Family Attached For Sale

The Linden Neighborhood Study Area City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio

. . . . . Number of Households . . . . .

Younger Singles & Couples**

30% to 80% AMI†

Above 80% AMI†

Total

Percent

The VIPs New Bohemians Small-City Singles Downtown Couples Twentysomethings Second-City Strivers Downtown Proud Multi-Ethnic Singles

5 0 2 11 3 2 2 2

14 1 3 11 3 2 1 0

19 1 5 22 6 4 3 2

16.4% 0.9% 4.3% 19.0% 5.2% 3.4% 2.6% 1.7%

Subtotal:

27

35

62

53.4%

Total Households: Percent of Total:

52 44.8%

64 55.2%

116 100.0%

100.0%

† For fiscal year 2017, Columbus, OH HUD Metro FMR Area Median Family Income for a family of four is $74,500. ** Predominantly one- and two-person households.

SOURCE: The Nielsen Company; Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.

Table 8

Page 1 of 2

Target Groups For New Urban Single-Family Detached For Sale

The Linden Neighborhood Study Area City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio

. . . . . Number of Households . . . . .

Empty Nesters & Retirees**

30% to 80% AMI†

Above 80% AMI†

Total

Percent

Multi-Ethnic Empty Nesters Cosmopolitan Couples Blue-Collar Retirees Middle-Class Move-Downs Hometown Seniors Second City Seniors

1 0 8 3 2 2

2 1 10 4 1 1

3 1 18 7 3 3

1.5% 0.5% 9.3% 3.6% 1.5% 1.5%

Subtotal:

16

19

35

18.0%

e-Type Families Multi-Ethnic Families Uptown Families Multi-Cultural Families In-Town Families Inner-City Families Single-Parent Families New American Strivers

1 8 18 3 6 0 2 5

4 10 26 4 4 1 1 3

5 18 44 7 10 1 3 8

2.6% 9.3% 22.7% 3.6% 5.2% 0.5% 1.5% 4.1%

Subtotal:

43

53

96

49.5%

Traditional & Non-Traditional Families††

† For fiscal year 2017, Columbus, OH HUD Metro FMR Area Median Family Income for a family of four is $74,500. ** Predominantly one- and two-person households. †† Predominantly three -to five-person households.

SOURCE: The Nielsen Company; Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.

Table 8

Page 2 of 2

Target Groups For New Urban Single-Family Detached For Sale

The Linden Neighborhood Study Area City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio

. . . . . Number of Households . . . . .

Younger Singles & Couples**

30% to 80% AMI†

Above 80% AMI†

Total

Percent

The VIPs New Bohemians Small-City Singles Downtown Couples Twentysomethings Second-City Strivers Downtown Proud Multi-Ethnic Singles

5 0 7 11 1 0 0 2

13 1 9 11 1 1 1 0

18 1 16 22 2 1 1 2

9.3% 0.5% 8.2% 11.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0%

Subtotal:

26

37

63

32.5%

Total Households: Percent of Total:

85 43.8%

109 56.2%

194 100.0%

100.0%

† For fiscal year 2017, Columbus, OH HUD Metro FMR Area Median Family Income for a family of four is $74,500. ** Predominantly one- and two-person households.

SOURCE: The Nielsen Company; Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.

Table 9

Page 1 of 2

Optimum Market Position: 395 to 495 New Dwelling Units Renovation/New Construction

Linden Neighborhood Study Area City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio July, 2017

Number of Households 350

Housing Type

Percent Mix

Base Rent/Price Range*

Base Unit Size Range

Base Rent/Price Per Sq. Ft.*

Multi-Family For-Rent

Annual Market Capture 70 - 85 du

. . . . . Apartments . . . .

Studios

25%

$675 to $775

475 to 550

$1.41 to $1.42

20%

$800 to $950

575 to 675

$1.39 to $1.41

35%

$900 to $1,200

650 to 900

$1.33 to $1.38

20%

$1,400 to $1,900

1,050 to 1,500

$1.27 to $1.33

One Bath

One Bedrooms One Bath

One/Two Bedrooms 1.5 Bath/2 Bath

Two/Three Bedrooms 2 Bath/2.5 Bath

64

Single-Family Attached For-Sale

3 - 5 du . . . . . Row Houses . . . .

One Bedrooms

33%

$100,000 to $135,000

700 to 850

$143 to $159

36%

$155,000 to $185,000

1,100 to 1,250

$141 to $148

31%

$210,000 to $250,000

1,450 to 1,750

$143 to $145

One/1.5 Bath

Two Bedrooms 1.5 Bath/Two Bath

Three Bedrooms Two Bath/2.5 Bath

NOTE: Base rents/prices in year 2017 dollars and exclude floor, view or lot premiums, options, or upgrades.

SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.

Table 9

Page 2 of 2

Optimum Market Position: 395 to 495 New Dwelling Units Renovation/New Construction

Linden Neighborhood Study Area City of Columbus, Franklin County, Ohio July, 2017

Number of Households 109

Housing Type

Percent Mix

Base Rent/Price Range*

Base Unit Size Range

Base Rent/Price Per Sq. Ft.*

Annual Market Capture

Single-Family Detached For-Sale

6 - 9 du . . . . . Urban Cottages . . . .

One Bedrooms

27%

$125,000 to $150,000

900 to 1,100

$136 to $139

43%

$165,000 to $215,000

1,200 to 1,600

$134 to $138

30%

$200,000 to $265,000

1,500 to 1,900

$133 to $139

One Bath/1.5 Bath/Den

Two Bedrooms 1.5 Bath/Two Bath

Three Bedrooms Two Bath/2.5 Bath

523

households

79 - 99 du per year 395 to 495 du over five years

NOTE: Base rents/prices in year 2017 dollars and exclude floor, view or lot premiums, options, or upgrades.

SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.

ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. Post Office Box 4907 Clinton, New Jersey 08809 908 735-6336 info@ZVA.cc â&#x20AC;˘ www.ZVA.cc Research & Strategic Analysis

ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITATIONSâ&#x20AC;&#x201D; Every effort has been made to insure the accuracy of the data contained within this analysis.

Demographic and economic estimates and projections have been obtained from government agencies at the national, state, and county levels. Market information has been obtained from sources presumed to be reliable, including developers, owners, and/or sales agents. However, this information cannot be warranted by Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc. While the proprietary residential target market methodology employed in this analysis allows for a margin of error in base data, it is assumed that the market data and government estimates and projections are substantially accurate.

Absorption scenarios are based upon the assumption that a normal economic environment will prevail in a relatively steady state during development of the subject property. Absorption paces are likely to be slower during recessionary periods and faster during periods of recovery and high growth. Absorption scenarios are also predicated on the assumption that the product recommendations will be implemented generally as outlined in this report and that the developer will apply high-caliber design, construction, marketing, and management techniques to the development of the property.

Recommendations are subject to compliance with all applicable regulations. Relevant accounting, tax, and legal matters should be substantiated by appropriate counsel.

o

ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC. Post Office Box 4907 Clinton, New Jersey 08809 908 735-6336 info@ZVA.cc • www.ZVA.cc Research & Strategic Analysis

RIGHTS AND STUDY OWNERSHIP— Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc. retains all rights, title and interest in the ZVA residential target market methodology and target market descriptions contained within this study. The specific findings of the analysis are the property of the client and can be distributed at the client’s discretion. © Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2017