Over the Road January 2025

1189694 Ontario Ltd. C.O.B. as Over The Road

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A New Year, a New Era

One cannot introduce a new year like 2025 without talking about the January 20th inauguration. The effect that Trump has on Canada is more bluster than bluff, but… it’s still a lot of bluster. Trump could install tariffs, but that’s not his goal… his objective is sound borders and safe streets. So, why do people and ‘news’ platforms keep scare-mongering the tariff ‘punch line’? Simply put… click bait and ignorance, neither of which is very impressive. I think Provincial leaders rattle the tariff cages because the border is mostly a federal issue. Provinces feel helpless when threatened yet have no control over eliminating the threat. I suppose, welcome to Canadian politics.

Personally, I believe his request for border security is a request long overdue and should be very mutual. Canada, historically, had a very noble and mature immigration program. Much thought and intentions were put into our national immigration policies over the decades. It seemed to work well for us until a few years ago when caution and long-term planning was thrown into the wind. Drugs flowed without check and those we let in hardly followed the time-tested standards.

Robert D. Scheper

It’s time to do our share of the ‘checking’. Threatening with tariffs is the fastest way to leverage the Republican’s campaign border promises so that’s what Trump used.

Sometime in the first day or two after the inauguration, I suspect the new administration will announce new programs, among others “drill baby drill”. The opening up of oil and gas under US authority will affect the trucking industry in two ways: increased economic activity in the oil and gas industry in North America and the reduction of fuel costs in the medium-long term. Lower fuel costs will reduce trucking costs and should further stimulate economic growth.

Our dollar most likely will remain low because of our government policies of overspending (among others). In addition to that, our currency is usually tied to the price of oil. When the oil spout is turned on, the price will drop and put pressure on our dollar to be low (lower). A low Canadian dollar is usually good for exports.

So, in my opinion, a boom is about to come… though we don’t know when the

full force of it will hit. It could be a year; it could be two before full employment is felt. A lot can happen in two years, but the future seems to have more light in it than darkness for trucking.

I’m a HUGE fan of the proposed USA DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency). When Elon Musk took over X (formerly twitter) and reduced the workforce by 80%, I was truly inspired. If they can reduce government regulation and bureaucracy by 30-40%, it will revolutionize the US economy.

Maybe our Canadian political parties are taking note of the changes in global policy desires. Maybe Canada can be inspired to promote a little DOGE of our own.

Change seems to be coming to many countries. If Argentina is any prelude to good policy and its impact on an economy, we are in for a wild ride. President Javier Milei is a fan of Trump, and he is a real character. He is changing the future of Argentina from trash to potential.

I was a fan of Trump before he was even in politics. I read several of his books and enjoyed his sarcasm and humour. His 2024 campaign was meme-filled hilarity. He is truly a master troller.

There will be changes between Canada and the US. We should probably accept the future that border crossings and security issues will most likely change.

Probably for the better; for the safer. It may cost us all some time but it’s worth the cost for a neighbor like our US partners.

I’m not sure if many of the changes will be made before we lose the Governor (aka: Prime Minister) of our great State (aka: Canada).

If you wish to learn more about the industry, check out our PODCASTS at “Making Your Miles Count” on YouTube or simply pop onto our website and scroll through our history.

Happy New Year!

About the Author:

Robert D. Scheper is a leading Accountant and Consultant exclusively serving the Lease/ Owner Operator industry in Canada. His first book in the Making Your Miles Count series “taxes, taxes, taxes” was released in 2007. His second book “Choosing a Trucking company” is the most in-depth analysis of the independent operator industry today. He has a Master degree (MBA) in financial management and has been serving the industry since he and his wife came off the road in 1993. His dedication, commitment and strong opinions can be read and heard in many articles and seminars. You can find him at www.makingyourmilescount. com or 1-877-987-9787.

CHECK OUT THE PODCASTS AT “YOUTUBE.COM/@MAKING YOUR MILES COUNT”

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Happy New Year!

Each year in January, most look forward to the next several months. We often think about what good things and what bad things can happen in the New Year. So that’s what this article is going to be about. I think there are a few interesting things that will greatly influence TRUCKING in the next 12 months.

SAFETY DAWG

Chris Harris

Truck Driver Shortage

Missed Classification of Drivers

Some people call it ‘Driver Inc’. I believe there will be some forward movement in the next 12 months as this issue continues to receive the attention of the government, trucking associations and the media. Whether you are for Driver Inc. or against it, at this point it doesn’t matter. I do think the government is slowly going to start to enforce the Canada Revenue (CRA) rules. How this will begin to affect trucking will be interesting. I think that both the trucking companies and the individual drivers will become even more creative and find another way to temporarily get around the CRA definitions. That is to say, in the long run, no huge changes will occur in the next 12 months.

During this freight recession, there has not been a truck driver shortage. I do think, or at least I am hopeful that the freight recession will end in the next 12 months, and once again we will find ourselves looking for drivers. With the changes that the federal government are proposing and implementing with immigration, this could easily create or add to a truck driver shortage. If this were to happen, that would be good news for truck driver wages. They would likely increase. I don’t think any truck driver would refuse a raise. So, there may be some good news in the next 12 months for you the truck driver. Of course, we will have to see if my crystal ball is correct. Along with possible wage increases, it means trucking freight rates would also have to go up. This could be good news for trucking companies who have long been struggling to get a fair return on their investments.

Self Driving Trucks

The manufacturers will continue to make great strides towards self-driving or autonomous trucks. After all, they are

already on our roads. I still believe that we are many years away from driverless trucks. I believe that for the next few years, there will always be an operator in the unit. This means a truck driver’s job may become even more pleasurable, as the advancements in computers and artificial intelligence in this area are amazing. As a car driver that has some of this new technology built into my car, I very much enjoy the driving experience. That said, a false reaction to a situation causes me a great deal of stress. My car has braked when there is no reason to have the brake engaged or to slow down. The artificial intelligence ‘saw’ something and performed in a heartbeat. This became a very stressful event for me as a car driver. I can only imagine how I would feel if I was driving a tractor-trailer, and the unit suddenly braked for no apparent reason. This ‘intelligence’ still has a long way to go. I am very hopeful that in the coming months or perhaps years, the AI will reduce collisions. For now, though, truck drivers are still secure in their jobs and artificial intelligence, or self-driving units currently do not pose an immediate threat to truck drivers.

The Trump Effect

About the time that this article is in the truck stops, Donald Trump will become the President of the United States. The only thing I feel certain of with Trump moving into the presidency is that he will continue to be unpredictable.

I do think that he will implement some tariffs. Will it be the full 25% across the board against all Canadian imports? I think that is highly unlikely. Our economies are so intertwined that this would be very punitive to the United States as well. But I do believe there will be some tariffs on some Canadian imported products to the United States. Tariffs will hurt Canadian trucking companies, shippers and our truck drivers. All tariffs will hurt the Canadian economy in general. And then there is the Canadian government’s reaction to tariffs. That too, will hurt the Canadian economy and, quite possibly, the amount of freight coming back into the country. So again, TRUCKING may be affected negatively. Depending on the percentage of tariffs and the goods that are targeted, I do believe tariffs are bad for trucking. In general, tariffs are certainly bad for the Canadian economy.

In summary, I believe that the year 2025 will be eventful and uncertain. As the saying goes; “May you live in interesting times”.

I wish you all the best for a safe and Happy New Year.

Chris Harris

Top Dawg, Safety Dawg Inc.

905-973-7056

chris@safetydawg.com @safety_dawg (twitter)

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