Passenger Transport: July 23, 2021

YEARS 2011 | 2021

ISSUE 246 23 JULY 2021

NEWS, VIEWS AND ANALYSIS FOR A SECTOR ON THE MOVE

Public transport sector braced for ‘pingdemic’

Hull-based East Yorkshire was already seeing up to eight bus drivers a day ‘pinged’ by the NHS Test and Trace App ahead of ‘Freedom Day’ on July 19 Bus and train operators across the country are bracing themselves for the impact of the ‘pingdemic’ as coronavirus cases soar and their staff are ‘pinged’ by the NHS contact tracing apps and required to self isolate.

Hull-based East Yorkshire was already seeing up to eight bus drivers a day forced to self isolate ahead of the July 19 removal of remaining restrictions in England.

The situation reached a head on July 17, with several cancellations for routes in and around Hull.

In a statement, East Yorkshire area director Ben Gilligan said: “Similar to other transport and hospitality companies across

the country, we are finding that a number of our colleagues are receiving notifications from track and trace asking them to self isolate. This seems to have increased markedly over the past week, with up to eight drivers a day being ‘pinged’, meaning they must immediately stop driving and return home, and cannot work for up to 10 days.

“Our operations staff are

“Unfortunately we are forced to cancel some journeys” Ben Gilligan

working hard to try and cover as many routes as we can, but unfortunately we are forced to cancel some journeys, especially on frequent routes where buses normally run every few minutes.”

Health secretary Sajid Javid has said the number of new cases of Covid-19 could rise to 100,000 a day after lockdown lifts, with a much higher number of people being required to self isolate.

The pingdemic is also impacting on the public transport sector’s supply chain. Bus manufacturer Alexander Dennis Limited says it has seen a spike in staff at its Scarborough plant isolating as a result of app notifications.

07

Findings have not yet been made public

ENVIRONMENT

Go-Ahead ‘carbon neutral by 2045’

13

‘Most ambitious’ target in the industry

COMMENT

‘Jam tomorrow - we need a plan for 2021’

16

Norman Baker on the decarbonisation plan

Cheeseman is TfL’s new bus chief

Britain’s first batterydiesel train joins the party

PT246p01 1

Watchdogs want details of Covid risks

CAREERS

CHILTERN MARKS 25TH BIRTHDAY Chiltern Railways marked 25 years as a train operator with a celebration event at London Marylebone Station and the launch of HybridFLEX Britain’s first battery-diesel train.

Chiltern, which is currently an all-diesel operator, is trialling this technology. HybridFLEX is the product of collaboration between rolling stock owner Porterbrook and engineering giant Rolls-Royce.

NEWS

26 Chiltern Railways celebrates its 25th anniversary by launching the greener and quieter HybridFLEX train

Hull Trains MD starts new role in August

SUMMER BREAK Passenger Transport is taking its annual summer break. There will be no edition on August 6. The next edition of the magazine will come out on August 20.

21/07/2021 16:51

PT246p02 2

21/07/2021 17:26

CONTENTS

PASSENGER TRANSPORT PO Box 5496, Westbury BA13 9BX 020 3950 8000 editorial@passengertransport.co.uk

‘Pingdemic’ could have huge impact on our sector There’s a sense of euphoria when you finally send a magazine to press. Inevitably, there’s an intense period of work in the days before the deadline and afterwards it feels like a weight has been lifted.

That euphoria will be even greater for me this Robert Jack time because for the first time in 16 days I can go Managing Editor outside! I have been one of the growing number of people who have been required to self isolate. First my wife tested positive for Covid and the next day it was my son. I initially tested negative but I later developed symptoms and a subsequent test was positive - hence my longer period of self isolation. I am pleased to report that we have all bounced back and a family camping trip to Argyll beckons. However, our plight, and that of the many people like us, poses a huge problem for the public transport sector.

With cases soaring even ahead of the removal of final restrictions in England, the country is braced for a new wave of infections. It has been suggested that there could be two million new cases over the summer - with 10 million people ‘pinged’ by NHS contact tracing apps and forced to isolate for 10 days. Two key characteristics of public transport are that it is labour intensive and communities depend on it, so the impact of the ‘pingdemic’ could be huge. It will eventually pass, after disrupting services and revenue at a crucial time, and it may be that employers can join schemes that enable staff to be tested rather than isolate. But there’s no doubt that a major new challenge awaits.

HAVE YOUR SAY Contact us with your news, views and opinion at: editorial@passengertransport.co.uk PASSENGER TRANSPORT editorial@passengertransport.co.uk forename.surname@ passengertransport.co.uk Telephone: 020 3950 8000 Managing Editor & Publisher Robert Jack Deputy Editor Andrew Garnett Contributing Writer Rhodri Clark Directors Chris Cheek, Andrew Garnett, Robert Jack, George Muir, John Nelson OFFICE CONTACT DETAILS Passenger Transport Publishing Ltd PO Box 5496, Westbury BA13 9BX, UNITED KINGDOM Telephone (all enquiries):

020 3950 8000 EDITORIAL editorial@passengertransport.co.uk ADVERTISING ads@passengertransport.co.uk SUBSCRIPTIONS subs@passengertransport.co.uk ACCOUNTS accounts@passengertransport.co.uk Passenger Transport is only available by subscription. Subscription rates per year; UK £140 (despatch by Royal Mail post); Europe/Eire £220; Worldwide (airmail) £280 The editor welcomes written contributions and photographs, which should be sent to the above

www.passengertransport.co.uk

PT246p03 2

address. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part without the publisher’s written permission.

Printed by Cambrian Printers Ltd, The Pensord Group, Tram Road, Pontllanfraith, Blackwood, NP12 2YA © Passenger Transport Publishing Ltd 2021 ISSN 2046-3278 SUBSCRIPTIONS HOTLINE 020 3950 8000

IN THIS ISSUE 20

WE’RE STILL FAILING TO DEAL WITH DISRUPTION

22

WILL GREAT BRITISH RAILWAYS BE GREAT?

24

NO PLACE FOR JAPAN ON THE GREEN PODIUM

25

HAVE WE PRODUCED A PLAN WITHOUT A PLAN?

Alex Warner believes too little attention is paid to management of disruption on the railway. “A recent experience was a timely reminder of the lack of progress over decades around the information provision on disruption,” he writes.

ORGANISATION Alexander Dennis Brighton & Hove BYD CAF Cardiff Bus Chiltern Railways CPT Crossrail Limited East Yorkshire First South West Flixbus FirstGroup Fusion Processing Ltd GB Railways Go North West Go-Ahead Group GTR HS2 Limited Hull Trains London TravelWatch Lothian Buses McGill’s Mellor National Express Group Network Rail NTA NXWM ORR Porterbrook Reading Buses Rolls-Royce RSSB TfL TfWM Trainline TransPennine Express Transport Focus Zemo Partnership

PAGE 1, 10, 28 4 10 7 15 1 12 8 1 5 5 15 15 22-23 4 4, 12 15 26 26 7 28 5 15 5 6, 7 10 4, 5 6 1 26 1 7 8, 9, 15, 26 5 7 7 7 12, 26

The Williams-Shapps report promises a revolution in the way the railways are provided, but will it deliver real change? “Shifting the emphasis to passenger needs and collaboration for a common aim is long overdue,” writes Nick Richardson.

The delayed Tokyo 2020 Olympics are about to get underway, so it’s a good time to look at how the world of energy plays out in Japan, writes James Spencer. He finds that with an overreliance on oil and gas, there’s no place for Japan on the green podium.

Our Whitehall insider imagines what’s going on inside the minds of the mandarins at Great Minster House, home of the Department for Transport.

Is the Transport Decarbonisation Plan little more than a re-hash of previously stated government policies?

REGULARS NEWS ENVIRONMENT INNOVATION & TECH COMMENT GRUMBLES CAREERS DIVERSIONS

03 12 15 16 25 26 28

23 July 2021 | 03

21/07/2021 17:59

NEWS ROUND-UP

Bus operators make most of ‘Freedom Day’ National Express West Midlands, Go North West and Brighton & Hove are among those seeking to entice users back with offers and promotions MARKETING

Bus operators in England sought to capitalise on the removal of remaining Covid restrictions with a range of promotions.

National Express West Midlands responded with its biggest ever cuts to bus fares. The new ticket prices started on July 19 and bring the average commuter a saving of over £130 a year.

The bus company is making travelling cheaper and easier by dropping most of its fares, as well as guaranteeing that nobody will pay more for their bus travel than they do now.

A day bus ticket that’s valid all day for travel across the entire West Midlands will cost only £4.

The price of a weekly bus pass will drop from £17.50 to £15. And a child ticket will be £2 a day.

In addition, the bus company is bringing in contactless weekly ticket price capping.

National Express West Midlands managing director, David Bradford, said last week: “The cost of everything including motoring - is going up.

But from [July 19], half of bus customers will pay less than they do now, and nobody will pay more.

“Our bus fare cuts mean that travelling all day will cost less than the price of a burger.”

Also commenting last week, Andy Street, the mayor of the West Midlands, said: “National Express’s fare cut is a fantastic decision that will help get our region back on the move as further restrictions are eased ...

04 | 23 July 2021 PT246p04-05 4

Not only will all buses now be cheaper thanks to other operators following National Express’s lead, but they will be simpler to use too.

“Keeping fares low has always been one of my top transport priorities as mayor, and I am delighted that over the last four years we’ve had a fare freeze, with the price of the most popular

ticket - the day ticket - staying at the same price since 2017.

“Now, come Monday [July 19], we believe we will have the cheapest bus fares in England - saving the average commuter more than £130 every year.”

In Greater Manchester, Go North West announced plans to get behind the city’s re-opening

“We believe we will have the cheapest bus fares in England - saving the average commuter more than £130 every year” Andy Street, mayor of the West Midlands

Left to right: West Mids mayor Andy Street; NXWM master driver Rekha Sehdeva; NXWM boss David Bradford

The ‘Manchester, we’ve proper missed you’ bus

as more lockdown restrictions are lifted. The Go-Ahead-owned bus company is sponsoring a major campaign highlighting the readiness of businesses from across the city - including shops, bars, restaurants and the local markets - to welcome people back. A double decker bus with specially designed exterior artwork declaring ‘Manchester, we’ve proper missed you’ has already hit the streets.

Promotional adverts are being unveiled across Manchester throughout this week.

Go North East has put in place two major fares initiatives: the first is a new ‘Flexi’ 3, 5 and 10 day season tickets to support workers who are making a gradual return to office life. The second is the reduction of all evening fares to £1 after 7pm.

Nigel Featham, managing director at Go North West, explained: “The lockdown has given everyone a new appreciation for what Manchester has to offer, and we want to lend our backing as it starts to re-open.

We know everyone wants to see the city get back to where it was and we are here to play our part in making that happen.”

Go-Ahead’s Brighton & Hove Buses is meanwhile encouraging people to make the most of their staycations this summer and explore the Sussex coast and countryside. Brighton & Hove and Metrobus managing director Martin Harris said: “After spending so much time indoors during the pandemic and with most lockdown restrictions lifted now, it’s time to enjoy the county we live in, and venture further afield.”

Brighton & Hove’s family networkSAVER gives unlimited travel on any bus for up to five people (maximum of two adults) for just £9, if purchased on the app, or £10 from the driver. www.passengertransport.co.uk

21/07/2021 16:46

We’re still failing to deal with disruption. Page 20

Congestion sees world famous route severed Peak reliability has slumped to 36.1% on Outer Circle route REGULATION

Reliability on Birmingham’s famous ‘Outer Circle’ bus route had deteriorated to such an extent in recent months that operator National Express West Midlands was forced to sever the route on July 4, replacing it with two new overlapping services.

The service was introduced in April 1926 and has been heralded as Europe’s longest urban bus route. The operator says that in 2019 the service accommodated over 10 million customer trips, equating to over 27,000 trips each day.

However, NXWM says reliability had significantly deteriorated in recent months

due to long term roadworks in Perry Barr and other pinch points along the route. Data reveals that between April 18 and May 29, just 67.8% of buses operated as scheduled with this slipping to 36.1% during the peaks.

In the afternoon peak, delays regularly extend to an hour at Perry Barr, whilst peak hour delays in excess of 20 minutes were common at some other points along the route.

As a result the operator says it has become almost impossible to maintain reliability and to provide an acceptable level of service. In addition to the passenger impact the poor reliability has also placed National Express at risk of traffic commissioner scrutiny.

In response two overlapping routes have been introduced.

Jon Hayes, Transport for West

Midlands head of bus told members last month that 96% of passengers would experience no adverse impact as a result of the change, which aims to boost reliability by allowing recovery time to be built into existing timetables.

But the move will also have an impact of NXWM’s resources.

“Pre-pandemic the service operated with a total of 45 buses each day,” explained Hayes.

“Under this service revision this will increase to 52 buses each day.

He added that NXWM has stated that severing the route was “an option of last resort” and that the operator, TfWM and Birmingham City Council would need to work collectively to identify an opportunity to bring the services back together and improve reliability.

on London’s roads

IN BRIEF

FLIXBUS GROWTH CONTINUES FlixBus has announced a further expansion of its UK network with new services linking Bath, Chesterfield, Chippenham, Coventry, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leamington Spa, Newcastle, Reading and Sunderland. The Scottish services will be operated in partnership with McGill’s which has acquired new Volvo 9700 coaches to operate the services.

“FlixBus is a huge brand that is synonymous with intercity bus travel,” said McGill’s chairman James Easdale.

NEG SPANISH EXPANSION National Express Group has acquired Spanish operator Transportes Rober. The group is paying €13m for the business which has operated the urban bus contract in Granada for more than 20 years. NEG says the deal cements subsidiary ALSA’s position in Andalusia.

FIRST SW PLANS CLASSIC GROWTH Operator purchases classic coach operator ACQUISITIONS

First South West has expanded its coaching interests in the south west of England with the purchase of King Harry Coaches, which has provided bespoke classic coach hire in the Cornwall market since 2003.

The business will operate under the Truronian Classic brand, and First plans to expand the operation from the two classic coaches acquired with additional vehicles.

“We see expanded opportunities and synergies with our existing VIP and hire business,” commented Marc Morgan Huws, First South West’s commercial director. www.passengertransport.co.uk

PT246p04-05 5

A 1964 AEC Reliance (left) and 1956 Bedford SBG will join to Truronian Classic operation 23 July 2021 | 05

21/07/2021 16:46

NEWS ROUND-UP

ORR assumes rail reform will be delayed In its periodic review of rail access charges the rail regulator assumes reforms will not be in place by the start of Control Period 7 in April 2024 RAIL REFORM

The Office of Rail and Road is working on its next periodic review of access charges on the basis that the reforms heralded by the Rail White Paper in May might not be implemented by April 2024, when Control Period 7 begins.

The ORR expects that train operators in the post-reform railway may not be required to pay access charges to Great British Railways (GBR), which will replace Network Rail.

However, it says GBR will require a framework for access charges, in order to charge operators which are not contracted by GBR. They include open-access passenger operators, freight operators, ScotRail and Transport for Wales Rail.

In its initial Periodic Review

METER RETROFIT MOOTED BY ORR

Metering would allow consumption monitoring ENERGY

A ring-fenced fund to support installation of electricity meters on old trains is mooted by the Office of Rail and Road, as part of its proposals to improve the electric current for traction (EC4T) charge regime.

The ORR estimates that about one-third of electricity consumed by rolling stock is not metered, with the figure being slightly higher for passenger than freight trains.

“The absence of metering 06 | 23 July 2021 PT246p06-07 6

23 (PR23) consultation on access charges for Control Period 7 (CP7), the ORR says: “Given that the Rail Transformation Programme is at an early stage, at this point of PR23 we cannot accurately anticipate the future access system, the related approach to charging that may be applied by Great British Railways, and the changes to legislation that may be made to deliver and implement this programme.

“We cannot also be certain that the changes required to implement the new system will be

“Access charges can continue to provide effective incentives” prevents operators from monitoring actual consumption ... which would enable them to set up mechanisms to encourage lower energy consumption, thereby improving efficiency and environmental outcomes,” it comments in a consultation document on access charges for Control Period 7 (CP7).

Using modelled rates can lead to operators being under - or over charged, and the annual “wash-up process”, which reconciles Network Rail’s electricity receipts and payments, can lead to unpredictable year-end fluctuations in cash-flows.

The main reasons for operators continuing to use modelled EC4T

in place by April 2024.”

In considering whether to explore any changes to the existing charging framework in PR23, the ORR took into account that “new legislation may not have been passed by April 2024”, and therefore “the current framework may need to apply on an interim basis for part or all of CP7”. CP7 will end in 2029.

The ORR believes that some of the core principles underpinning Network Rail’s current charging framework may remain relevant for GBR in its future approach to charging other operators.

“Access charges can continue to provide effective incentives for these operators to minimise costs and use the network efficiently,” it says. “More broadly, under any future industry structure, it is important that information about

rates are the cost of installing meters on old rolling stock and a perception that meters are inaccurate. The ORR says the meters go through extensive quality assurance and it has yet to see clear evidence of inaccuracy.

One-third of electricity consumed by rolling stock is not metered

the key drivers of network costs is retained, to enable effective decision-making.

“The cost allocation processes which underpin charges can provide part of this information, though it will be for the Rail Transformation Programme (and Great British Railways in future) to determine the specific approach that applies to its network.”

The ORR is seeking industry views on the following four key proposals for change: Removing the ‘wash-up mechanism’ for the fixed track access charge paid by operators on concession-style agreements; Improving the information available to operators on variable usage charge rates, alongside reviewing some aspects of how this charge is calculated and applied; Simplifying administration of the traction electricity charge and ensuring there are sufficient incentives for operators to use on-train metering; Standardising some aspects of how the long term charge for managed and franchised stations is calculated.

On the costs of retrofitting meters, it said: “We consider that this issue could be addressed in part by establishing a ring-fenced fund to support the installation of on-board meters for older rolling stock. However, this would require diverting some of Network Rail’s available funding from other uses and is therefore a matter for funders. We intend to explore with Network Rail and funders the merits of this proposal.”

Were this proposal to be implemented, the ORR could introduce complementary measures, such as making metering mandatory during CP7. www.passengertransport.co.uk

21/07/2021 16:48

“Up-to-date data which could inform passenger decision making has not been disclosed” RAIL TICKET SALES INCREASING Trainline revenue highest since pandemic start FINANCIALS

Online rail ticket retailer Trainline claims that revenues have reached their highest level since the pandemic began last year with year-on-year ticket sales for the quarter ending May 31, 2021, increasing by 324%.

But ticket sales in the UK consumer market significantly outperformed Trainline’s operations elsewhere. There it reported sales were up 269% year-on-year and were improving week over week throughout the first quarter.

The company added that more tickets were being sold at the end of the first quarter than in the same period two years ago. Ticket volumes in May were 92% of 2020 financial year levels. Trainline also reported that it is seeing an accelerated shift to digital ticketing with UK e-ticket penetration increasing to 37%, up from 21% in the 2020 financial year. It says the take-up of e-tickets should increase further after ScotRail rolls them out this summer.

Meanwhile, in Europe Trainline reported that new open access rail operators in the Spanish market are driving demand. In the Madrid to Barcelona corridor ticket sales have more than doubled since Avlo and Ouigo launched their services.

“It’s very encouraging to see people returning to train travel as lockdowns and restrictions gradually ease,” said Trainline chief executive Jody Ford.

“It’s very encouraging to see people returning to train travel” Jody Ford, Trainline

www.passengertransport.co.uk

PT246p06-07 7

Watchdogs call for details of Covid risk Rail industry urged to publish secret RSSB report on transmission SAFETY

Passenger watchdogs have called on train operators to release the findings of research that quantifies the risk of catching Covid-19 when travelling by train.

In July last year the Rail Safety and Standards Board developed a model that suggested the risk of infection was, on average, one in 11,000 journeys.

However, since this data was released to the public it is claimed the risk has climbed significantly.

Regular updates have been issued to senior figures in the rail industry and Department for Transport, but the findings have not been made public.

The Guardian reported last week that although the RSSB says the risks of transmission on trains

are “tolerably low”, the risk is understood to be much higher on long-distance journeys and with growing passenger numbers. The risk is likely to increase again if a growing number of passengers fail to wear face coverings.

It is understood RSSB has modelled the risk on different services according to demand levels, mask-wearing rates, train ventilation, passenger spacing, vaccination rates and the relative infectiousness of variants. While the RSSB has publicly revealed how its model works, the rail industry has so far failed to publish the exact figures.

It has led Transport Focus and London TravelWatch to call on train operators and Network Rail to publish the information, highlighting that “up-to-date data which could inform passenger decision making has not been disclosed to the public”.

“People can only make good judgments about how and when to travel, and what action to take, if they are given good information,” the watchdogs said in a joint letter. “We therefore urge the industry, through RSSB, to immediately release information that gives passengers a clear understanding of the level of infection risk they need to consider.”

Anthony Smith, chief executive of Transport Focus, said he felt RSSB was nervous that people would put too much reliance on the data. He continued: “People can’t compute this stuff.

In context, it’s a positive thing because it shows the rail industry is taking it incredibly seriously.”

Smith’s view was backed

by Emma Gibson, London TravelWatch’s director. “People need to be able to make informed decisions,” she said.

‘THIRD OF ADULTS WOULD TRESPASS’ Network Rail launches new safety campaign SAFETY

TRANSPENNINE EXPRESS FLEET RENEWAL COMPLETE TransPennine Express has completed the introduction of its new fleet of trains with the final delivery at Manchester International depotof the 44th train, a Nova 3 locomotive-hauled trainset comprising five Mark 5A carriages built by CAF in Spain. The move marks the final step in the delivery of the new £500m fleet.

Network Rail and British Transport Police have launched a new campaign after a survey of 2,000 adults revealed that a third of them would be prepared to risk their life to retrieve an everyday object, like a mobile phone, purse or wallet, from the tracks despite being fully aware of the dangers.

The ‘Shattered Lives’ safety film warns about the life-changing dangers on, and around the railway and highlights the devastating consequences of adult trespass.

23 July 2021 | 07

21/07/2021 16:48

NEWS ROUND-UP

Crossrail once again stuggling with budget National Audit Office reveals programme was further from being complete than expected in April 2019 when new budget and schedule were agreed PROJECTS

The troubled Crossrail project is once again struggling to remain within the terms of its funding package according to a new report published by the National Audit Office.

It has found that the revised schedule and budget agreed for the project in April 2019 is unachievable because the programme was further from being complete than Crossrail Ltd, a Transport for London company which is responsible for delivery of the Elizabeth line, and the programme’s sponsors understood.

Although cost increases and schedule delays are in line with Crossrail Ltd’s 2020 estimates, the NAO warns they exceed the available budget and there are still significant issues that could arise as the line is commissioned.

In 2018, the Department for Transport and Transport for London, which are joint sponsors of the project, strengthened their oversight of the programme and brought in a new management team at Crossrail Ltd when it became clear that the project’s central section would not be opened on time, or within the available funding.

When the NAO last reported in May 2019, the funding package for Crossrail stood at £17.6bn, the forecast cost was £17bn, and the central section of the Elizabeth line was due to open by March 2021 at the latest.

The new management team 08 | 23 July 2021 PT246p08-09 8

The Elizabeth line’s station at Liverpool Street was handed over to London Underground last month

hired in November 2018 had to start largely from scratch when setting a revised plan to complete the programme. Milestones were repeatedly missed in 2019 and 2020 due to Crossrail Ltd continually uncovering problems or identifying requirements for new work. Despite contractors meeting only 30% of milestones on average throughout 2019 and early 2020, Crossrail Ltd continued to base its plans on more optimistic levels of productivity.

However, the pandemic has had a sigificant impact on the project.

“More needs to be done to plan for and deliver the wider benefits of the Elizabeth line”

The NAO reports that it has added further costs - Crossrail Ltd now estimates that £228m of the increase in costs since April 2019 has been as a direct result of the impact of the pandemic. But the delivery company has used Covid as an opportunity to improve its planning of remaining work. By working closely with contractors to plan and resequence the outstanding work, between August 2020 and April 2021, contractors met around 90% of milestones.

Although major construction work was largely complete by May this year and Crossrail Ltd was in the process of transferring assets, such as stations, to the operators and commencing operational testing, the NAO says there are still significant issues that could affect cost and schedule. It has also revealed that the first stage of operational testing - trial running - is six weeks behind the ‘best

case’ target date, but still within the range of dates set out in the revised August 2020 schedule.

The software update needed for the next stage of testing is also delayed by three-to-eight weeks.

The NAO also warns that programmes have problems when roles and responsibilities change or when they are shared between different bodies. As a result it has flagged up that Crossrail Ltd will transfer assets to a number of different bodies, such as Rail for London (Infrastructure) Ltd, the infrastructure manager of the central section, and London Underground, which takes on responsibility for some stations.

These organisations will play a key role in the next phase of commissioning.

“More needs to be done to plan for and deliver the wider benefits of the Elizabeth line,” adds the NAO. “The initial business case (2011) set out the benefits of building an accessible railway that achieved wider economic and environmental aims.”

However, it adds that the context within which the Elizabeth line will open is different from 2011, in particular the rise of flexible and remote working.

The NAO says that achieving the wider economic benefits of the original business case will require sustained vision over a long period. “Although TfL has a plan for integrating the Elizabeth line into its transport network, it does not yet have a plan for maximising the benefits set out in the business case,” it warns.

The NAO recommends that Crossrail Ltd and Rail for London (Infrastructure) should work together to set out a clear plan for handing the Elizabeth line over before services launch. TfL and government should also set out a strategy to maximise the line’s potential benefits. www.passengertransport.co.uk

21/07/2021 16:47

“If I can make it from station foreman to commissioner, so can you”

Byford sets out his five priorities for TfL Restoring ridership and improving diversity are key goals STRATEGY

London transport commissioner Andy Byford says he has five key priorities for Transport for London as the threat of the pandemic recedes.

Speaking at the latest instalment of the Urban Transport Group’s Urban Transport Next online conference sessions, Byford said that most of these priorities related to Covid specifically.

“Covid has ravaged TfL’s finances,” he explained. “We are reliant to the tune of 72% on fares from the farebox; it’s unheard of throughout the world of transport - the norm is around 40 to 42%. We are in a real mess in terms of finance and we’ve got to rely on government funding in the short term.”

As a result, Byford said his first priority was to rebuild

BYFORD KEEN FOR LONG-TERM DEAL Commissioner argues for government funding RECOVERY

London transport commissioner Andy Byford says he is keen to secure a long-term funding settlement for Transport for London from the government.

Speaking at the latest instalment of the Urban Transport Group’s Urban Transport Next online conference sessions, Byford said such a move would allow the organisation to move away from the short-term funding deals that have www.passengertransport.co.uk

PT246p08-09 9

TfL’s finances and he said key to this was securing a long-term, stable funding agreement from the government covering both operating expenditure and capital funding.

“In the short term we need some operating support, we believe we can get back to being self-sufficient within two and a half years, but long term we need that government support for big capital programmes.”

Byford explained TfL intended to invest this funding in “big ticket items” like new trains and upgrading signalling systems, claiming these sort of investment would help the national economy.

The next priority would be to rebuild patronage on London’s transport networks. Byford said it would be impossible to rebuild TfL’s finances without this happening. “That means providing a safe, orderly and clean environment to encourage customers to come back,” he

added.

“Thirdly, we must deliver on the ‘big ticket’ projects. I’ve made it my personal mission to get the Crossrail project finished and get the Elizabeth line open - that in itself will aid our recovery.

What could be a greater, more triumphant symbol of London’s resurgence from Covid than the soon to open, spectacular Crossrail?”

But before then, Byford explained, the Northern line extension to Battersea would

been successively agreed since the first national Covid lockdown.

“We work with government really closely on the main impact of Covid, which is, of course, the decimation of our finances,” he said. “That has really coloured my tenure so far; really having to fight to get funding for TfL, because literally at one point ... the ridership on the Tube, we were down to 5% of normal ridership.

It was down to daily ridership we haven’t seen since Victorian times.

But we asked customers to stay away so that we could keep the capacity for critical workers. That campaign worked really effectively, but of course the trouble was it

took the finances with it. So we are progressively negotiating deals with government.”

Byford said TfL had secured five deals to date with funding totalling around £5bn, but he said it was impossible to run an organisation as large as TfL on piecemeal six-month deals.

He continued: “We really must get that long-term deal and I’m working with government all the time - primarily the Department for Transport, but also the Treasury and Number 10 - and we are fighting to get a fair settlement for TfL, because, as I keep saying to government, you can’t have a national recovery

Byford: ‘Covid has ravaged TfL’s finances’

open later this year followed later by other projects, like the London Overground extension to Barking Riverside.

Byford continued: “The fourth is to have a green agenda and a green recovery. We’re very keen to push on with the green agenda... we want to make our contribution to improving the environment for Londoners and clean air with an electrified bus network.”

For his fifth priority Byford said he was keen to improve diversity at TfL: “I often say to frontline staff around the network - if I can make it from station foreman to commissioner, so can you. I want an organisation where everyone can achieve their potential.”

He pointed to his time at the Toronto Transit Commission and noted that since it had been founded in 1921 until he joined the organisation in 2011, there had not been a single woman on the TTC’s executive.

“It was ridiculous,” he said.

“When I left, and on merit, we were a 50:50 split between men and women. That made a massive difference to business performance and to the whole vibe of the executive.”

without a London recovery, and you can’t have a London recovery without a viable transport system.

“Don’t see us as the problem; see us as part of the solution.

Government wants an infrastructure and jobs-fuelled recovery; we can help with that. You want a green recovery? We can help with that; let’s electrify our buses. You want levelling up? We can help with that - we buy our buses in Scotland; our new Piccadilly line trains are being made in East Yorkshire; and our steel in Scunthorpe.

“Investing in TfL makes sense,” he said, adding “I have the government on speed dial.”

23 July 2021 | 09

21/07/2021 16:47

NEWS ROUND-UP

ADL ‘tech agnostic’ on zero emission options MD Paul Davies also reveals coach assembly paused for BVG order MANUFACTURERS

Bus operators are increasingly turning to electric and alternativefuelled vehicles and that trend will only continue, according to bus manufacturer Alexander Dennis.

At a special online briefing for the press this week, Paul Davies, the manufacturer’s president and managing director, outlined how the Larbert-based manufacturer, which is now owned by CanadianAmerican bus manufacturing conglomerate NFI Group, was transitioning towards a zero emission future.

Davies said that ADL was “technology agnostic” and was continuing to develop a new suite of hydrogen-powered

ADL/BYD SECURE IRISH EV ORDER Partnership wins orders for up to 200 electric buses OVERSEAS

Alexander Dennis and BYD have signed a framework agreement with the National Transport Authority of Ireland (NTA) for the delivery of up to 200 BYD ADL Enviro200EV zero emission battery-electric buses.

The single supplier framework agreement with the NTA will run for up to five years, and covers the delivery of single deck long length battery-electric buses. An initial firm order for 45 buses has been agreed, with delivery commencing in 2022 for services in Athlone and Dublin.

The BYD/ADL partnership, represented by ADL as primary 10 | 23 July 2021 PT246p10-11 10

CONSOLIDATION IN NORTH AMERICA

NFI Group to close some Alexander Dennis operations OVERSEAS

vehicles under the H2.0 sobriquet while continuing to offer battery-electric products via its partnership with BYD in the UK and New Zealand. The company has also developed a new fully electric double deck product for the North American market using its own in-house expertise.

Davies added that operators were increasingly convinced by the merits of battery-electric.

He continued: “There is no doubt now that operators see battery-electric buses certainly as an equivalent to diesel in terms of reliability [and range].

“Right now we’re delivering buses with generation three of the BYD technology. In the space of five years we’ve gone from generation one to generation three and generation four is on the horizon - it’s moving very quickly.”

Meanwhile, Davies confirmed that ADL would pause coach production at its Scarborough plant in order to facilitate the assembly of Enviro500 double deckers for Berlin public transport operator BVG. He said assembly of these vehicles would also see ADL investing in the Scarborough facility in order to “maximise manufacturing flexibility”.

Davies added that ahead of the switch to the production of the Berlin buses, ADL had ensured it had sufficient stock of new coaches on hand in order to satiate new vehicle demand from the market for the near term.

Around 200 buses will be produced for Berlin at Scarborough over the next year with first deliveries anticipated before the end of 2021.

NFI Group, the parent company of bus manufacturer Alexander Dennis, has announced it intends to rationalise its bus manufacturing interests in North America which will see ADL’s manufacturing locations in Ontario, Canada and Indiana in the United States closed, with production relocated to existing NFI manufacturing locations.

“After a thorough review of our North American manufacturing locations, we have determined that rationalising our [Alexander Dennis] North American manufacturing locations is the required approach,” said Paul Soubry, NFI Group president and chief executive.

He added the decision had not been taken lightly, but the integration of the manufacturing operations would help NFI Group to create a more cost efficient, integrated operating business.

contractor, was selected “in a comprehensive and rigorous procurement process in which the company provided the strongest offer”. It is the partnership’s first contract in Ireland as well as the

largest order for zero emission buses in Ireland to date.

ADL’s body engineers have worked with their colleagues at BYD to tailor the vehicle to the specific needs of the NTA and its operators.

This has resulted in a vehicle that will be 12-metres long and can be specified in several configurations to suit different operational requirements, including a version with two doorways, a wheelchair space and a dedicated area for the accommodation of at least one unfolded pram, pushchair or buggy.

“Over the next five years we are planning a major increase in the number of low and zero-emission urban buses in operation on the Transport for Ireland network across the country,” said Anne Graham, chief executive of Ireland’s National Transport Authority.

“The fleet represents the best mix of cutting edge electric technology, proven reliability, accessibility and comfort for all passengers who use TfI bus services.”

ADL and BYD’s engineers have worked to tailor the vehicle to the specific needs of the NTA

www.passengertransport.co.uk

21/07/2021 16:47

PT246p10-11 11

21/07/2021 16:47

ENVIRONMENT

A ‘greenprint’ to take transport to net zero The government’s Transport Decarbonisation Plan will make active travel and public transport ‘the natural first choice for all who can take them’ DECARBONISATION

The government published its Transport Decarbonisation Plan last week, hailing it as “a world-leading ‘greenprint’ ... setting out a credible pathway for the whole transport sector to reach net zero by 2050”.

As part of this vision, the government announced its intention to phase out the sale of new diesel and petrol heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) by 2040, subject to consultation. Combined with the 2035 phase-out date for polluting cars and vans, “this represents a world-leading pledge to phase out all polluting road vehicles within the next two decades”. The consultation proposes a 2035 phase-out date

‘2050 IS POSSIBLE BUT NEW POLICIES WILL BE CRUCIAL’ Two-thirds say current policies not enough DECARBONISATION

A survey of stakeholder experts, opened on July 6 for this week’s Zemo Partnership Annual Conference, shows that most believe that the decarbonisation of UK road transport by 2050 is possible but two-thirds say that policies so far enacted or announced are not enough.

Respondents also believe that while the electrification of road transport is an important component of the transition, there needs to be more focus on behavioural measures 12 | 23 July 2021 PT246p12-13 12

Grant Shapps

Transport secretary Grant Shapps said: “It’s not about stopping people doing things: it’s about doing the same things differently. We will still fly on holiday, but in more efficient aircraft, using sustainable fuel.

We will still drive, but increasingly in zero emission cars.

“The Transport Decarbonisation Plan is just the start - we will need continued efforts and collaboration to deliver its ambitious commitments, which will ultimately create sustainable economic growth through healthier communities as we build back greener.”

Responding to the TDP, the Confederation of Passenger Transport said: “With cars and taxis

to achieve the goal.

Speaking at the Zemo Partnership conference, with over 600 delegates in attendance, transport minister Rachel Maclean, a leading government proponent of the new Transport Decarbonisation Plan said: “COP26 will be a crucial moment to test our global commitment to fight rising temperatures and prevent irreversible damage to our planet.

In the UK, nothing short of a green industrial revolution will do.”

Maclean described the recently published TDP as “rightly ambitious but achievable”.

The plan provided the backdrop for the conference, which featured responses to the plan from the widest range of leading stakeholders Zemo Partnership’s chief executive,

Andy Eastlake, announcing details of the organisation’s ‘acceleration programme’ said: “As transport, technology and systems converge, so does our need to think differently.

Operating in our traditional, closed silos is no longer enough. The TDP has set the finish line and fired the starting gun. We are now all in a race against the climate change clock in which no one can get left behind.”

Other key interim findings from Zemo Partnership’s stakeholder survey are: More than 70% of respondents think that the 2030/5 phase-out dates for the sale of new cars and vans are realistic (17% have already made the switch, while 53% feel the timing is ‘about right’); Around 58% of respondents said

for vehicles weighing from 3.5 to 26 tonnes and 2040 for vehicles weighing over 26 tonnes - or earlier if a faster transition seems feasible.

The TDP also sets out how the government will improve public transport and increase support for active travel to make them “the natural first choice for all who can take them”, creating a net zero rail network by 2050, ensuring net zero domestic aviation emissions by 2040 and leading the transition to green shipping.

“It’s about doing the same things differently”

contributing 55% of transport’s greenhouse gas emissions we need urgent action to reduce car journeys if we want to be on track to deliver net zero by 2050.

“Today’s plan is an opportunity to begin that work by focusing on cross government policies that get people out of their cars and onto buses and coaches, which has an immediate impact in reducing carbon emissions. We also need to see measures that discourage car use including measures such as transparent road pricing schemes that can reward sustainable travel choices, fairly reflecting their environmental impact.

“The industry is committed to moving towards zero emission fleets but this must be as part of a realistic long-term roadmap, alongside sufficient funding, so operators can plan their investments accordingly.”

MORE ON THE TDP NORMAN BAKER CLAIRE HAIGH GRUMBLES

16 18 25

that behaviour change will deliver as much, or greater, carbon reductions than technology (42% said we need to focus equally on technology shift/behaviour change while 16% said behaviour change has the greater potential); Nearly 70% of respondents think that they will be able to cut their household’s carbon emissions from travel to zero (or near zero) by the 2050 target date. However around 15% think it’s unrealistic; Over 66% of respondents think that there will be cost effective zero emission technologies available for the delivery of goods by 2040.

However, a significant minority (30%) think it will be 2050 - or even later - before such technologies are available. www.passengertransport.co.uk

21/07/2021 17:08

‘A welcome step, but we need much more’. Page 18

Go-Ahead aims to be carbon neutral by 2045 Group claims target is most ambitious in the industry DECARBONISATION

The Go-Ahead Group has set out a strategy to lead the transport industry in carbon reduction by achieving a 75% cut in emissions by 2035, and by becoming a fully carbon neutral company by 2045.

Go-Ahead claims that the exacting targets, which were announced last week, are the most ambitious in the industry.

They will be achieved through a combination of investment in zero-carbon technology, a crackdown on waste and a significant increase in reuse and recycling of materials (see panel).

Submitted to the Science Based Targets Initiative for ratification, the timetable is in keeping with

‘COMMUTERS ARE WILLING TO PAY TO GO GREEN’ Lower earners more likely to bewilling to pay more PUBLIC OPINION

Half of people (50%) are willing to pay more in travel costs to maintain the environmental improvements, such as reduced pollution, seen during the pandemic, according to PwC’s latest transport research which surveyed 2,000 people across the UK. Commuters on lower salaries are more willing to pay higher transport costs to support new environmental measures. People earning £30k and under were most likely (54%) to support paying more compared to those earning £60-90k (45%). www.passengertransport.co.uk

PT246p12-13 13

an overall mission set under the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5°C by 2050.

Commenting on the strategy, Go-Ahead chief executive David Brown said: “Climate change is the number one challenge facing society and in order to address it, we must make radical changes to the way we travel. If we’re serious about protecting the health of our planet, then businesses such as Go-Ahead must show leadership.

“Our climate change plan is ambitious but deliverable, and is consistent with international goals

of limiting any increase in global temperature to 1.5°C. “We will play our part by decarbonising our business and by investing in environmentally sustainable technology. We hope our commitment will be matched by a broader shift in public policy on transport by encouraging people to walk or cycle where possible, use buses and trains as an alternative but only use a car if absolutely necessary.”

Go-Ahead has already achieved a 22% reduction in emissions since 2016, in spite of expansion of the business.

“If we’re serious about protecting the health of our planet, then businesses such as Go-Ahead must show leadership” David Brown, The Go-Ahead Group As many workers adopt new flexible working, 57% of respondents say they are most likely to use contactless payments followed by daily off-peak reduced priced tickets (35%). People are least likely to buy traditional ticket types like monthly (20%) and annual (18%) passes.

More people are confident than last year that Covid-19 will not have a long-lasting effect on how they travel on public transport, with 70% saying that they will travel in the same way as they did before the pandemic. This is an increase from 55% at the start of the pandemic in 2020.

Grant Klein, PwC’s transport leader, said: “Our research shows a clear public mandate to sustain the positive environmental effects we have seen during the pandemic even at a financial cost to them.

£50M FOR SCOTS ZERO EMISSION BUSES IN 2021 ScotZEB fund replaces previous schemes ZERO EMISSION BUSES

The Scottish Government has launched the first £50m phase of a new Scottish Zero Emission Bus Challenge Fund (ScotZEB).

The fund replaces previous funding streams and is designed to encourage the market to agree and implement new and innovative ways to finance zero emission buses.

Building on the success of the Scottish Ultra Low Emission Bus Scheme, ScotZEB will now support Scotland’s green recovery, providing immediate economic

CALLING POINTS Calling points along Go-Ahead’s journey to decarbonisation include: Converting Go-Ahead’s entire fleet of 5,000 UK buses to zero emission vehicles by 2035; A decarbonised rail fleet by 2035; Improvements to air quality by 2025 through a 17% drop in carbon monoxide emissions, a 49% cut in hydrocarbons, a 63% fall in nitrogen oxides and a 50% cut in particulate matter from vehicles; A 25% reduction in water use by 2025 through a significant reduction in leakage, together with responsible management in all operations; A significant improvement in energy efficiency at all Go-Ahead premises by 2035; Reduction of overall waste volumes and recycling of 60% of waste by 2025.

stimulus and supporting the Scottish Government’s ambitions to decarbonise the bus fleet.

ScotZEB was unveiled by Transport Minister Graeme Dey at the Bus Decarbonisation Taskforce, which brings together senior leaders from the energy, bus and finance sectors to co-design a pathway to a fully decarbonised bus fleet.

Dey said: “The Scottish Government has come to the table with an evolved offer for zero emission bus funding ... £50m is available in 2021 to help drive a green recovery, responding to the global climate emergency and to improve air quality. I’m excited to see results from the ScotZEB Challenge Fund and expect to offer a larger pot of funding in 2022 once it demonstrates its success.”

23 July 2021 | 13

21/07/2021 17:08

PT246p14-15 14

21/07/2021 17:29

“This trial will help us grow our knowledge”John Birtwistle

Fusion joins MultiCAV Fully electric Mellor Coachcraft Orion E minibus will serve business and science hub Fusion Processing Ltd has been selected by FirstGroup and Oxfordshire County Council to provide an autonomous electric minibus to the MultiCAV project.

The Autonomous Level 4 minibus will be operated by First Bus in and around Milton Park, the 250 acre, high-tech business and science hub near Didcot. The vehicles will travel on public roads around Milton Park and connect to the nearby railway station.

Fusion will provide its CAVStar automated driving system, installed in the vehicle. The Bristol-based company has been developing autonomous systems since 2012, and CAVStar has been developed over a number of autonomous vehicle projects.

CAVStar includes all sensors, computer units, communications units, control modules and software to enable AV Level 4 operation.

The project will feature a Mellor

The MultiCAV project was first announced in 2018 www.passengertransport.co.uk

PT246p14-15 15

Coachcraft Orion E fully electric, 15-seat minibus. Fusion will fit the CAVstar system and upgrade the vehicle systems to provide the levels of redundancy required for safe AV Level 4 operation.

The MultiCAV project will provide multi-modal Mobility as a Service (MaaS), including multiple types of all electric Connected and Autonomous Vehicles: shuttles, bus, taxi and eBikes. For the first time, it extends real passenger carrying services by a range of autonomous vehicles, into mixed traffic on UK public roads.

The project is intended to provide real service choices between autonomous mobility options, and assess both user behaviour and commercial viability. A MaaS platform will integrate real-time transport data from numerous sources to provide personalised user options. From this the project will determine an optimum CAV-based MaaS solution for Oxfordshire.

Fusion Processing’s CEO, Jim Hutchinson said: “The MultiCAV project will demonstrate how automated vehicles can provide effective on-demand transport on local routes, and we are thrilled to be a part of it.”

John Birtwistle, First Bus head of policy, said: “This trial will help us grow our knowledge of how services complementary to our mainstream bus, coach and rail operations might extend the scope of public transport to deliver a more sustainable future for the communities we serve.”

INNOVATION & TECHNOLOGY ROUND-UP

CREWPLAN

GOOGLE IS BEST

Software improves cost efficiency at Cardiff Bus

App still gets superior rating from Londoners

SOFTWARE

APPS

Cardiff Bus has reduced its driver costs through the adoption of the new CrewPLAN - the system designed to automate the production of efficient crew schedules - from software supplier, Omnibus.

CrewPLAN uses an algorithm to make crew scheduling more efficient, while enhanced functionality enables users to tackle large and complex problems instantly and explore alternative scenarios to discover which works best.

Transport users in London looking to avoid busy stations and crowded Tube and train services as the final lockdown restrictions were removed on July 19 would still be better off using Google Maps than the TfL Go app according to an updated review of key public transport apps published today

by London TravelWatch. Google Maps received an overall rating of four stars compared to TfL Go (3.5), Citymapper (3) and National Rail Enquiries (3).

GTR SHOWS QUIETER TRAINS Rail journey-planning tools boosted INFORMATION

Move aims to cut emissions

TRAMS TO ALSO DELIVER GOODS regioKArgo utililises Karlsruhe tram-trains

As restrictions ease and more people return to rail travel, Govia Thameslink Railway (GTR) has launched a new information tool designed to give customers information on which train services are the least busy. Southern, Thameslink and Great Northern websites all now feature a ‘Find a quieter train’ page, which can be found under ‘travel information’.

FREIGHT

Parcels are now bring moved by tram in the German city of Karlsruhe and surrounding region as part of a series of pilot projects under the umbrella name ‘regioKArgo’. The aim is to reduce carbon emissions by using the region’s well-developed tram-train network to move goods between logistics hubs.

Websites now show quieter trains

23 July 2021 | 15

21/07/2021 17:29

COMMENT TRANSPORT DECARBONISATION PLAN

NORMAN BAKER

Jam tomorrow - we need a plan for 2021

In many ways the Transport Decarbonisation Plan is ambitious but promises for 2050 are easier to make than immediate actions

It is, I suppose, a sign of progress that a word very few had heard of 20 years ago is now the subject of a major and eagerly awaited government document.

The government has boldly called it “the world’s first greenprint to decarbonise all modes of domestic transport by 2050”. Wow. No ifs and buts about that.

This is not actually the first government document to address the idea. It was 10 years ago that I launched in the House of Commons a policy paper for local transport called Creating Growth, Cutting Carbon. I wanted to put the carbon bit first, as I saw that as a precursor to growth, but in the amicable horse trading that was part of the coalition, Philip Hammond, then transport secretary, insisted on putting growth first. To my mind, he was turning Lennon-McCartney into McCartney-Lennon. But still, I don’t suppose it made that much difference.

Incidentally, I see that Philip has just landed a job advising the Saudi Arabian government.

That will certainly bump up his bank balance, if not his street cred.

The good news is that the ambition in the government’s decarbonisation paper goes further than any of us might have dared hope, and it would be difficult for even the most “fundi” green to be too curmudgeonly about it.

So why am I only cautious in my overall response, holding back the fulsome praise, and not cheering from the rafters?

Call me cynical, but to make radical promises 16 | 23 July 2021 PT246p16-17 16

for 2050 is a good way to gain some brownie points from electors concerned about the environment, a good initiative to wave at other nations when they gather in Glasgow later this year for COP 26, and one that involves minimal political risk.

After all, neither Grant Shapps nor any of his ministerial colleagues will be in government in 30 years’ time. Many will even have departed the earth, and I don’t mean in Richard Branson’s carbon-busting spaceship.

Just look at the recent roll-call of ministers who were in the Department for Transport between just five and 10 years ago: Philip Hammond, Theresa Villiers, Mike Penning, Justine Greening, Patrick McLoughlin, Simon Burns, Stephen Hammond, Susan Kramer, me… the list goes on. None are ministers now and few are even in the Commons.

I note that the Labour Party described the strategy as “a long time coming but barely worth the wait”. A Lib Dem member in the Lords offered the view that it was a production “infected with Boris’s fairy tale optimism”.

Another remarked caustically that we don’t want more reviews and strategies, but some

“There is a rosy assumption that technological advances will get us to net zero”

decisions.

It is certainly true that the strategy needs to be looked at, not simply in terms of the intended 2050 outcomes, but whether those outcomes are realistically achievable, and even more importantly, whether decisions being taken now by government are consistent with the 2050 goal of net zero emissions from the transport sector.

While human ingenuity should never be underestimated, there is a rosy assumption in the strategy that technological advances will get us to net zero, while at the same time allowing us to carry on pretty much as we are now, with technology having eliminated the downsides of transport. We will still do what we are doing now, but do it differently, as the transport secretary puts it.

It is, of course, politically convenient to assert that we can realise big gain with no pain.

It is also somewhat questionable.

Nowhere is this truer than the promises on aviation, a particular love of Grant Shapps. The transport secretary has a pilot’s licence and even has his own plane, which for some obscure reason he chose to register in the United States.

Jet Zero is a slick and catchy phrase, so credit to whomever thought of that, but can we really expect the promises in the strategy of net zero domestic aviation emissions by 2040, and net zero overall by 2050 to be met? This sounds like pie in the sky.

Battery technology is coming on in leaps and bounds but as things stand, I am not sure I would be entirely comfortable boarding a flight with hundreds of others on a battery powered plane.

The strategy refers to aviation using “sustainable fuel”. What does that mean? If it is referring to biofuels, there is a question as to how sustainable that will be, and an even bigger one about the capacity to secure the huge volumes of fuel that would be required to replace kerosene.

But perhaps the clue is in the phrase “net zero”. Is the government going to allow the use of kerosene to continue provided it is offset by lots of tree planting? If so, that is really business as usual to all intents and purposes.

The ambition for road vehicles seems more realistic and achievable. Setting clear dates for the end of legitimate sales of new petrol and diesel vehicles, including HGVs, gives industry a clear roadmap which they should be able www.passengertransport.co.uk

21/07/2021 15:54

“The government needs to be doing much more to encourage modal shift to public transport” to follow. The government needs to ensure, however, that domestic manufacturers benefit from the switchover, and we do not simply gift the Chinese a huge opportunity.

The intention to ensure all 40,000 government vehicles are zero emission by 2027 leads by example. This is actually an enhanced commitment, as previously 2030 had been the date scheduled for this achievement.

Yet it is not simply enough to try to green existing forms of transport without also seeking to influence the share of journeys each form of transport commands. The government needs to be doing much more to encourage modal shift to public transport, for social and economic as well as environmental reasons.

Congestion on our roads will not be alleviated by making every vehicle electric.

The strategy document states that “we must increase the share of trips taken by public transport, cycling and walking. We want to make these modes the natural first choice for all who can take them”. A laudable sentiment, but where is the follow through?

To use an old English phrase, ‘fine words butter no parsnips’. Or to use a more modern American one, ‘where’s the beef’?

The reality on the ground is that that objective is now further away than it was at the start of 2020. The government’s pandemic messaging to “avoid public transport” has led many to conclude not only that public transport is unsafe, but perhaps even uniquely unsafe. While thousands of unmasked people attend the Euro final at Wembley, or Wimbledon, or now night clubs and pubs, we are still exhorted by many to wear a mask on public transport where the risk of viral transmission is vanishingly small. Indeed, the Office of National Statistics recently concluded that there was no more risk in going to work by public transport than by using your car.

Those who advocate mask wearing uniquely for public transport, like the London mayor Sadiq Khan, say they are doing it to give passengers confidence. What they are actually doing is reinforcing the false belief that public transport is unsafe. Meanwhile, the RAC is warning of “an unprecedented summer on UK roads”.

Decarbonisation must be given a kick start now, and I am more interested in 2021 than in 2050. Let us see some ministers visibly on public transport themselves, rather than hiding behind the operators. Let us see an end www.passengertransport.co.uk

PT246p16-17 17

Huw Merriman, chair of the Transport Select Committee, pictured in May at the launch of a campaign to get more people back on public transport. Let us see some ministers visibly on public transport

to the destructive 10-year freeze on fuel duty which has kept motoring costs down while bus and rail fares have rocketed. Let us see the abandonment of the vast bulk of the absurd £27bn road-building programme which, if enacted, can only encourage more modal shift from rail to road.

The recent Which? report comparing train and plane showed very clearly that for most journeys, flying is cheaper. So we have fiscal signals that encourage cars and planes and discourage buses and trains. It is almost the case that the more carbon you emit, the cheaper it is to travel. And while rail fares are being forced up above inflation, the government is looking to cut Air Passenger Duty, the only tax on flying. There is of course no duty payable on kerosene.

Nor is there any overt mention in the decarbonisation plan of the need to move to road pricing, which if well designed can be a slick way to reduce carbon emissions.

The Centre for Policy Studies calls this the “big omission”.

There is to be a consultation on reforming BSOG (Bus Service Operators Grant),

presumably to repay mileage rather than fuel used. Great, but why has this not been done already? It has been talked about for years.

There is a promise of a “sustainable programme of electrification” for the railways. Yet at this point the pipeline of schemes is drying up, the Midland mainline project is ludicrously stopping at Market Harborough, and the Treasury is baulking at further investment in what it regards as the Department for Transport’s bottomless rail pit.

We are promised year-on-year targets for modal shift to rail, but wait, this is to be the responsibility of Great British Railways who of course will have no control over the perverse incentives to use car and plane.

So let us applaud the decarbonisation plans for 2050, but let us now have an active decarbonisation plan for 2021.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Norman Baker served as transport minister from May 2010 until October 2013. He was Lib Dem MP for Lewes between 1997 and 2015.

23 July 2021 | 17

21/07/2021 15:54

COMMENT TRANSPORT DECARBONISATION PLAN

CLAIRE HAIGH

A welcome step, but we need much more In perpetuating the myth that we can continue our existing lifestyles unchanged, the government is storing up problems The Transport Decarbonisation Plan (TDP) is a landmark publication. The target to end the sale of all new polluting road vehicles by 2040 is genuinely world leading. There is a lot to celebrate about the vision for a cleaner, greener, healthier Britain. One cannot criticise the plan for its intention, vision and ambition.

The criticism of the TDP is that it perpetuates the myth that we can continue our current lifestyles unchanged.

There are contradictory messages. The plan includes the aspiration for public transport, walking and cycling to become the “natural first choice”. At the same time, the over-riding message is that we will be able to continue our existing travel behaviour, just with cleaner technologies. “We will still fly on holiday, but in more efficient aircraft, using sustainable fuel. We will still drive on improved roads, but increasingly in zero emission cars.”

There is positive wording around the need to tackle car commuting and increase vehicle occupancy; to avoid a car-led recovery; to better integrate transport with planning; to encourage the development of 20-minute neighbourhoods; and to review the National Policy Statement on National Networks and RIS2 (albeit government is still committed to substantial road building). However, there are no firm commitments on when these will be delivered, and no targets for modal switch.

Even with no new petrol or diesel cars sold by 2030, we will still need to reduce traffic on our roads by at least 20%. Whilst the TDP 18 | 23 July 2021 PT246p18-19 18

would like to see half of all journeys in towns and cities walked and cycled by 2030, there are no targets for increasing public transport use and no targets for fewer car trips. Transport Scotland has pledged a 20% cut in car kilometres by 2030, but there is no mention of any such target in the TDP.

“We will still fly on holiday, but in more efficient aircraft, using sustainable fuel. We will still drive ... but increasingly in zero emission cars”Grant Shapps

Technology clearly has a fundamental part to play, but behaviour change - especially in some of the harder to abate sectors like aviation, and more generally across the whole economy and especially surface transport and heating - will also play a critical role. The easy wins in terms of decarbonisation of the power sector have already happened. The plan fails to level with the public on the fundamental point that to achieve reductions going forward we are going to have to change our behaviour.

The TDP contains ambitious targets for cleaner vehicles but many of these are based on assumptions around unproven or untested technologies. It is excellent that government is consulting on ending sales of new nonzero emission HGVs by 2040 with a view to establishing targets for the sector. These will send clear market signals and be a spur to action - as the 2030 target for ending sales of new petrol and diesel cars has already proven to be. Proposals for a Zero Emission Vehicles Mandate are also very welcome. Ten out of ten for giving the right signals to businesses.

But an important caveat, as the plan also makes clear, is that there isn’t yet a winning technology for road freight. Green hydrogen looks promising, but many of the zero emission alternatives for the HGV sector - as indeed for aviation and shipping - are untested or have yet to become mainstream. It would be unwise to put too much store by assumptions around the deliverability of technologies that have not yet been developed. Government must be honest about what can be achieved through technology alone.

Aviation is a case in point. The plan notes that many technologies such as sustainable aviation fuels, zero emission aircraft, and GHG removal technologies, are “exciting but still in their infancy”. The Committee on Climate Change estimates that to meet the net zero deadline, aviation growth must be slowed so that emissions do not exceed 25% above current levels. Yet the plan does not include a moratorium on future airport expansion as the CCC has recommended. Conspicuously absent are any targets for limiting growth in flights. Ministers have been clear that demand management is not part of the Jet Zero strategy.

To be politically deliverable any limits on flying will need to be seen to be fair and equitable. In the UK, 15% of people take 70% of all flights, while 50% do not fly at all in a www.passengertransport.co.uk

21/07/2021 15:58

“To achieve reductions going forward we are going to have to change our behaviour” given year. The Social Market Foundation has done some useful modelling on its Frequent Flyer Levy proposal, showing that it would be fairer than increasing Air Passenger Duty.

In whatever form it is implemented, demand management will be unavoidable if aviation emissions are to be kept within limits recommended by the CCC. There is a growing body of opinion that not only must we have a fair and just transition to net zero, but that people must be at the heart of designing policy to tackle the climate crisis. On the same day that the Department for Transport published the TDP, IPPR , the Institute for Public Policy Research, published the final report of its Environmental Justice Commission Fairness and Opportunity: A people-powered plan for the green transition, which makes the case for a new social contract.

Recommendations include a world leading local public transport system that is free at the point of use by 2030.

The Climate Assembly UK has shown that deliberative democracy can deliver results, and often change participants’ attitudes. 83% of Assembly members reported behaviour changes after taking part and 72% were more convinced that achieving net zero by 2050 would be possible. Following the success of Climate Assembly UK, the Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Committee has recommended that government sets out plans for deliberative engagement on net zero policies through citizens assemblies.

Much greater engagement with the public is needed. Government must also be honest about the choices we face. If we electrify the car fleet without sorting out how to transition away from fuel duty, road traffic could increase by 30% as the costs of running a car plunge.

Introducing EVs without some form of road pricing will have little impact on carbon reduction. Growth in traffic congestion and emissions from all vehicles, will damage public transport networks and leave the Treasury with a £40bn black hole.

The plan refers to a need to reform vehicle taxation to keep apace with new technologies but is not explicit about the need for road pricing. However, the switch to EVs provides the opportunity for an honest conversation with the public about road taxation. Road pricing is just one example of many changes needed across the economy. We are living www.passengertransport.co.uk

PT246p18-19 19

Recent floods in Germany have been linked to climate change

beyond our sustainable means. We must focus on our carbon consumption. All our activities must be priced to reflect their carbon contribution.

It is perhaps understandable that government might be reluctant to be too upfront about the behaviour change required. If the secretary of state were to say: “you must fly less, you must drive less” there would be the risk of a public backlash. But in perpetuating the myth that we can continue our existing lifestyles unchanged, government is storing up problems for the future and will only make inevitable changes harder. To take the public with it on the journey to net zero, government must first level with it about the hard choices ahead.

The Climate Assembly UK found that 56% supported charging for use of roads, against only 39% who did not. A recent poll for Britain Thinks showed that whilst two-thirds of the public supported taxing environmentally damaging behaviour, there was low support for road pricing. An IPSOS Mori poll in December 2020 found that six in ten Britons would support charging motorists for driving in towns and city centres if the charge were designed to reduce traffic congestion and improve the local environment. An earlier poll in 2007 on the same question found more opposition than support.

Opinion polls suggest that there may have been a shift. However, there is a big difference between conducting surveys and assemblies of a hundred people, to a real-world

implementation of a potentially unpopular measure like road pricing. There will be a role for deliberative democracy, but also for a concerted awareness campaign on the scale of the public communications surrounding the pandemic. We know government can act decisively, and people will respond when presented with a clear imperative.

One might argue that the difference with the pandemic is that it has been a real and present danger. There may be no clear point at which everyone sees the world as Greta Thunberg sees it. However, the loss of life and devastating impacts in areas which might not have been thought of as high risk such as Germany, Canada and the US, are set to become more frequent. The tragedy may be that it is only when the impacts become overwhelming that it becomes politically acceptable to act. But by then it will be too late to avert the most catastrophic outcomes.

We must have that conversation before it is too late. Transport is the fastest growing source of global greenhouse gas emissions. As hosts of COP26, the UK will need to show leadership on transport. The TDP is a welcome first step, but it needs to go much further.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Claire Haigh is founder and CEO of Greener Transport Solutions, a not for profit organisation dedicated to the decarbonisation of transport

23 July 2021 | 19

21/07/2021 15:58

COMMENT DISRUPTION

ALEX WARNER

We’re still failing to deal with disruption

A recent experience was a timely reminder of the lack of progress over decades around the information provision on disruption “You just come to me first and I’ll tell you exactly what’s going on when the trains are delayed and just make sure you don’t listen to those ar**holes in management or head office because they won’t tell you the truth.”

She was possibly the friendliest, most smartly attired railway employee I’d come across in years - lovely smile, eye contact, engaging, talked to me at length about various railcards and also unfolding disruption on the network - a textbook interaction until the final denouement, even if it did make me titter as I walked away from the ticket office.

I won’t reveal the location as I wouldn’t want her to get in trouble because actually she was doing a fabulous job. Her comment, though, was borne of acute frustration that she’d heard that trains were being diverted and no one had told her the reason or given her any information about how long it would last.

She was in the same position, I later discovered, as staff at other stations nearby.

My experience was a timely reminder of the lack of progress around the information provision in disruption in the near-on 30 years I have been working in transport, and also my fear that any good practice we’ve learnt may have been deleted from the memory bank during the travails of the last 18 months of Covid. I’ve detected across the rail industry a laissez-faire attitude to the absence of disruption - a lot of ‘ho ho ho, PPM is in the upper 90s but we all know it’s a bit of a joke because no one has been travelling’, rather 20 | 23 July 2021 PT246p20-21 20

than an acceptance that this, indeed, may well be the case, but at least the slate is clean and we can build back better from a good position.

Maybe I’m fretting too much. When the Hitatchi fleet was paralysed in May, LNER, Cross Country and Great Western Railway handled the situation well. This is unsurprising - three TOCs that have had a track record of stability in terms of customer service delivery and with the most experienced managing directors at the helm. However, it is the small to medium sized, everyday disruptions that tend to go unnoticed by top brass and fall under the radar because they happen

Weybridge in the sun

at outlying locations that no one gives two hoots about and at extremities of the day factors that make their impact worse because there isn’t the management grip or frontline resource to mitigate their effects. In the post Covid world when folk will need more persuasion to travel and be more discerning than ever, these sorts of irritations could tip them over the edge and they won’t come back.

Within a year of my career starting in 1993, I was seconded to London Underground’s Passenger Information in Disruption Group - a function that was seen as revolutionary at the time. Over the subsequent near-three decades, I saw almost every railway company and transport body either set up a similar organisation or have dedicated managers responsible full-time for developing a strategy and standards to crack the issue of information provision when the service goes to the wall. I would guess that in staff costs alone, we must be talking multi-millions and yet, the agenda for these groups is identical to that which we grappled with when I was in my heyday.

For all the innovation in technology Twitter live feeds, real-time departure screens replicated on the internet, text updates, employees being issued with tablets and much more, it is the ‘human’ elements that have progressed very little. It comes back to that age old issue that besets so many railway managers - a lack of self-awareness.

So often, I see or hear of control centre teams making decisions around cancelling or diverting services on specific routes, flows or corridors without any reflection as to what the experience may have been like recently.

Quite often it is the same group of customers that have disruption inflicted on them because their part of the network from an operational perspective is easiest to be sacrificed for the greater good of the wider TOC’s recovery.

There’s seldom, if ever, any questioning as to what the experience may have been like for the same set of customers over the past week or months. Those making the decisions aren’t even furnished with the kind of information that tells them how it’s been for different parts of the network, giving them the option not to inflict any more misery on them.

This absence of emotional intelligence is then evident in the paucity of advice that is relayed from the control centre to those on-board affected trains. Guards and drivers www.passengertransport.co.uk

21/07/2021 16:18

“Culturally, there needs to be a mindset towards always seeking to give more” are often just told their service will be either diverted, terminating short of its destination or missing stops without any information around alternatives. No surprise, therefore, that my train last week was diverted to another destination, miles away from where I wanted to go, without any alternative advice provided. As it was, customers were just dumped at a remote station, mid-evening, for the next train 30 minutes behind, when they’d have been better off staying on a stop further and waiting at a large, busy interchange with copious facilities.

I tire of that old adage ‘putting ourselves in the customer’s shoes’. It’s written so many times in franchise bids, strategy documents, training manuals and corporate tripe, that it loses any impact. The reason I tire of it is because it is so blatantly obvious that it shouldn’t need to ever be uttered. But almost every time disruption occurs, the railway unilaterally fails. Apart from the lady I mentioned at the beginning of this article, I cannot remember the last time I saw an employee genuinely look as if they remotely empathised with or felt the pain of the disruption that was being unleashed on customers in front of their very eyes. More often, it takes the customer to prompt staff to offer alternatives and most of the time they struggle to even suggest the most basic lines.

For me, it comes down to motivation both from managers and their employees. It never ceases to amaze me, how rail enthusiasts have traditionally been treated with sneering disdain by railway bigwigs, yet they manage to know every nook and cranny, every alternative form of transport during disruption in a way that frontline staff fail to. When I’m on a train that is delayed, diverted or where we’ve been kicked off and dumped on a platform, I’m the one taking the law into my own hands advising folk on how they can best continue their journey. So too, when we come to a standstill and a delay is first announced, I open my trap and tell customers whether it’s likely to be a long one and if they need to seek alternatives rather than pursue the impossible by hoping our train will somehow continue towards its destination unimpeded.

I don’t think it is unreasonable for every guard/conductor to learn and revise the surroundings of each station on their network.

Station staff too, particularly relief folk, must gen up on what is happening locally, particularly around engineering works. I kid www.passengertransport.co.uk

PT246p20-21 21

you not, but recently I’ve watched staff in ticket offices have absolutely zero awareness of rail replacement services affecting their station a day or so away, or even blockades lasting several months on the routes that they serve.

I’ve also witnessed them giving completely incorrect details, sitting in their ticket offices in denial of any impending disruption.

Last week, a ticket office employee time and time again, without a single hint of selfdoubt, was convinced there were no trains for six months to the end of the line and a replacement bus service was running, even though, the destination boards right in front of her and announcements were correctly saying otherwise. Sometimes when I do mystery shopping, I have to draw the detail out of frontline staff, giving them countless prompts but they struggle to take the bait. Quite often, I ask about engineering works and staff just point at the poster opposite them on the concourse and leave it up to me to fathom it out.

It is indeed a lack of motivation. How often before starting their shift do station employees take the time to furnish themselves with key information affecting their station and customers? As they travel to work, would it be too much to ask them to try and second guess the likely questions they may get asked during their shift or maybe information they could proactively provide that might be of value to customers? Don’t forget also that frontline employees aren’t paid a pittance - railway staff enjoy extremely well compensated and secure employment by comparison with tertiary sector peers, so it’s not too much to ask them to go beyond the bare minimum. However, the lack of motivation extends to those supposedly in charge. Any decent manager worth their salt would not just implore their employees to familiarise themselves with the needs of their customers and prepare properly for their shifts, but they’d coach and brief them on it.

Many railway managers think a coach is just something that National Express runs.

Culturally, there needs to be a mindset towards always seeking to give more, to go that one step further and constantly explore ways to add value for customers. This means a return to the era when you would stand at a London termini and if your train was delayed, there would be a manual announcement giving a football commentator style update on the progress of the train on its inward journey.

Similarly, it means staff pro-actively checking the many screens that have appeared in recent years for their use only in and around gatelines and platforms, showing real-time train movements, signal control centre style, rather than just ignoring them.

There needs to be proper, once and for all, discussion around what we do with all these disruption management plans, standards, protocols, guidelines and manuals. So much resource has been expended writing these documents but hardly any ever land with local managers and their teams. Laziness and a lack of conviction are to blame. Railway businesses are obsessed with dumbing down these documents, simplifying them into such concise, child-like language, that they come across as superficial and condescending.

The Internal Communications department intervenes and belligerently sticks to its fixation that all frontline staff are dumb and have the attention spans of a newt. From my experience, employees want the detail.

I often watch with incredulity in the hours post disruption when frontline staff receive patronising praise for responding like war heroes in adversity, and management take to social media to talk about how the ‘railway family’ rallied around once again. In using staff to actually divert ‘aren’t I wonderful?’ attention onto them instead, these emotionally unintelligent folk neglect to talk to their beleaguered colleagues in the complaints department who will tell you that the experience served up was about as attractive as a night out in North Korea.

Although I don’t agree with that bubbly employee I encountered last month that ‘managers are ar**holes’ - they are part of the problem. It’s a well worn truism, but post-Covid is an opportunity to re-set ways of working. It needs strong leadership and unstinting persistency to come to the fore, otherwise, Groundhog Day will eternally persist when it comes to trying to tackle the unsolved mystery of information provision during disruption.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Alex Warner has over 28 years’ experience in the transport sector, having held senior roles on a multi-modal basis across the sector

23 July 2021 | 21

21/07/2021 16:18

COMMENT RAIL REFORM

NICK RICHARDSON

Will Great British Railways be great?

The Williams-Shapps report promises a revolution in the way the railways are provided - will it deliver the changes that are needed?

The dust is settling on the WilliamsShapps report and there has been a deluge of comment, largely supportive. Now it’s my turn to consider how all those involved can work together to achieve the shared vision of a better railway that is grounded on sustainability, cooperation and customer benefits.

My first observation is that with devolution, the concept of Great British Railways doesn’t apply in Scotland, where the Scottish Government has been trying to improve performance and investment, or in Wales where the Welsh Government, through Transport for Wales, operates passenger trains across its territory with a few incursions across the border. The result is that what is left is the railway network in England in much the same way that the national bus strategy is for England, highlighting the peculiarity that the Department for Transport sometimes covers the UK and at other times England only.

Revisiting the basics A dose of common sense has been applied to bring together trains and tracks ie, those who provide the services and those who provide the infrastructure. Separating them was a widely acknowledged mistake which would have been better if their geographical coverage was the same; instead we have put up with a mess of non-alignment. An integrated approach to planning the network remains crucial, particularly given that the railway takes years or decades to respond to the changing market. As 22 | 23 July 2021 PT246p22-23 22

a strategic planner, I would view the absence of this keystone as a serious error. Arguably, even worse was the creation then abolition of the Strategic Rail Authority. However, one message that has emerged is that there should not be a determinist role for the Department for Transport if the railway is to operate effectively as an arms-length government company.

Decisions about the railway are best made away from government - although there are of course important governmental considerations - and wasting resources by having Whitehall shadowing everything is particularly unhelpful.

A strategic rail planning agency would naturally liaise with the DfT on a regular basis to ensure that issues are taken into account.

Before talking about funding, we need to be clear about what objectives we are trying to meet. The big issue relating to achieving Net Zero is reducing car use - electrification is a must. No more dithering, reviews and spiralling costs, this is fundamental to modernising the railway. Introducing bi-mode and tri-mode trains has its uses but longer term is not an efficient way of reducing emissions.

The railway has a part to play by providing journeys sustainably as an alternative to domestic aviation and extended car journeys,

“Decisions about the railway are best made away from government”

not to mention moving freight and parcels.

The problems of electrification have stemmed from poor experiences of the past in that it has been done to meet constrained budgets rather than to create durable assets. The standard 25kV system is expanding slowly but there are still many routes that are not included, even new ones such as East West Rail. Elsewhere, the basic third rail DC system works well most of the time but still has gaps that could be plugged, particularly as many trains are capable of running on both forms of electrical supply.

Money talks All this indicates that the railway should not be solely determined by HM Treasury.

This is not a call for a free-for-all but a coherent and agreed plan that should be funded appropriately. We have recently witnessed government handing out cash as if there were no tomorrow, so lack of funding is a poor excuse. If there is no more ‘new’ money, then how about shifting the Highways England budget for new and largely pointless road capacity to the railway? That would put billions in the fund to achieve something more sustainable in accordance with government policy, or at least some bits of policy. Infrastructure costs certainly need strong control, but building up experience of electrification would help - and asset management is key, particularly when much of the asset is prone to collapse in extreme weather events. A joint train and infrastructure approach should see more commitment by TOCs to new stations and line improvements.

We have learned by experience that running the railway costs far more than it ever did in the past. This is partly because the infrastructure is beyond its best or is lifeexpired and suffered from decades of underinvestment so remedial work is needed. The involvement of private operators has shown that providing train services is no guarantee of a good return and it is telling that some large operators such as National Express and Virgin Trains have been and gone with others on the brink, even pre-pandemic. It was clear from the start that new entrants to the market would be taking risks and hence the competition for franchises has declined over time. The core message here must be that competition and trains don’t mix for a highly constrained and complex network. Ironically, www.passengertransport.co.uk

21/07/2021 16:18

IN ASSOCIATION WITH: www.ciltuk.org.uk Tel: 01536 740100 @ciltuk

the old British Rail’s InterCity operation was given no government money but against all odds actually made a profit while London and South East (a broad generalisation!) was hugely busy but slow and tired. Regional Railways, the bits left over, had at no time been provided without cost to the taxpayer. The notion that open access operators would challenge franchisees was a big failure and those that are left are owned by bigger concerns. Hopefully the terms under which train operators secure services will become more transparent and genuinely competitive on price, although all risks have now passed to the operator of last resort, government ie. the bottomless pit.

We have also learned that the private sector can bring innovation and good ideas but there is no reason why the industry can’t recruit its own bright sparks into the public sector.

The railway of the past was a huge but often unimaginative employer with limited scope for innovation. GBR offers scope for fresh ideas but should acknowledge that throughout its history, the railway has worked best when its staff know about running trains rather than chocolate factories or bus companies.

Value and affordability Fares are an area for which reform is supported widely. If people are to return to train use, then they need to understand what they are buying.

The vast number of operator and other outlets for ticket purchase is absurd and doesn’t necessarily act in the interests of consumers.

The multiplicity of ticket combinations is so baffling. Unifying this is not an easy task and will probably involve numerous iterations to create standard ticket types, price equality and products that address emerging demands such as changing commuter habits. Sadly, we have gone beyond the point of starting afresh so a systematic programme that absorbs each operator in turn may be necessary. If people are to use local services then the fares need to be reasonable which in many places they are not currently. For longer distance services, trains must be cheaper than planes. Decisions about how to make journeys should not write off trains because they are too expensive, especially for groups/families. There are lots of opportunities too, including universal PlusBus options, cycle hire from stations and so on.

So a bright new dawn, if handled properly

with common sense rather than purist economics could provide the guiding light, one that we have been searching for over several decades. Shifting the emphasis to passenger needs and collaboration for a common aim is long overdue but it requires skilful and confident control without government interference. The disastrous timetable changes, the witch-hunting associated with Crossrail delays, collapse of punctuality and numerous other calamities need to be confined to the past. Instead, building on the good attributes that have emerged such as better customer service, systematic network upgrades and new routes will help to unify the railway and provide the direction needed.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Nick Richardson is Technical Principal at transport consultancy Mott MacDonald, a Director of the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport (UK) and Chair of PTRC Education and Research Services Ltd. In addition, he has held a PCV licence for over 30 years.

LETTERS

Train delay attribution Grant Shapps wishes for an end to the expensive bureaucracy associated with train delay attribution. This has been directly challenged by the ORR, who say that under the Access and Management Regulations 2016, only incremental changes are allowed.

The Transport Secretary may wish to avoid primary legislation, but this may be necessary to define the new relationships on the passenger railway to bring about more co-operative behaviour under Great British Railways. It may also be worth stepping back into a previous era, when the railway had not been burdened with the costs of the ORR and the financial and legal expenses associated with it. No-one associated with the running of the railway wants to see delays to services.

Operational standards and engineering standards were maintained through ‘morning conferences’ held throughout the system. At junior levels, www.passengertransport.co.uk

PT246p22-23 23

explanations were prepared, and at senior level, you probed these explanations with the objective of eliminating the causes of delay. When senior managers did their job properly (and usually they were well briefed) any dissatisfaction was quickly felt throughout the system - and it worked. Whilst chief operations manager at Crewe in the mid1970s, we regularly scored over 90% right time.

No money, just personal pride. There is no reason why Great British Railways should not return to such a system, provided the chief operators and engineers on the system spend the early part of each morning finding out the true causes of failure. They should not be deflected from the key aim of improving performance by attending other people’s meetings. Performance must have priority.

The system can be modified to deal with cross border issues. It needs to be based on a soundly constructed timetable allowing adequate access to freight and other authority operators. If we are looking to lift costs out of the system we need to be radical and determined that nothing should stand in the way of running a better railway.

Bill Bradshaw, House of Lords

GTR and Train Fleet 2019 I refer to your article of July 9 (PT245) in which it was suggested that by some “brilliant ploy” the buck and the risks had been passed to the public sector with the Class 365s.

The reality is that there were a series of financial transactions which took place which enacted contracts put in place by British Rail and the Banks in the 1990s. The result of this was that the Class 365s were indeed purchased by the Department for Transport, but in fact were sold back to the private sector banks on July 1, 2021, and then back to the train leasing market. Both the purchase price and the sale price were pre-ordained within the contracts and the DfT (via Train Fleet 2019) held the trains for the intervening two years.

Overall this was a transaction that was beneficial for the public purse when weighed against the alternatives that were available in August 2019.

Richard George, Chair of Tf2019 23 July 2021 | 23

21/07/2021 16:18

COMMENT

WANT TO KNOW MORE? Visit Portland’s fuel forum page: portland-analytics.co.uk/fuel-forum

OIL MARKET REPORT

£

PORTLAND FUEL ANALYTICS - AUGUST 2021

No place for Japan on the green podium

The eyes of the world will soon by on Japan for the Tokyo games.

It has committed to ‘net zero’ by 2050 but relies on imported coal It’s been an occasional tradition of this report to try and link major sporting events to fuel markets!

So it was that we looked at James Spencer London in 2012 (Olympics), Portland Russia both in 2014 (Winter Olympics) and 2018 (World Cup), Brazil also twice in 2014 and 2016 (World Cup and Olympics) and South Korea in 2018 (Winter Olympics). With no spectators and an understandable lack of fanfare, most of us seem to have forgotten that Tokyo is hosting this year’s (delayed) Olympics - but we won’t let that stop us writing another wholly useless report on the world of oil and energy and how it plays out in Japan!

Just like the weirdest Olympic event ever (the cycling Keirin - originally from Japan and the one with the guy on an electric bike at the front), energy across the Japanese archipelago is a complex and tactical affair. Much of this stems from the fact that the country has virtually zero mineral raw materials. It has next to no coal reserves, produces no oil and has a tiny number of operating gas fields.

For the third biggest economy on earth, that is an unusual position to be in and has inevitably required careful energy planning, along with the strategic development of strong international relationships to mitigate such a large reliance on imported energy.

Japan imports 3m barrels of oil per day (bpd), which is around 3% of world consumption

24 | 23 July 2021 PT246p24-25 24

and makes it the fourth largest oil importer on the planet (after USA, China and India). It’s reliance on Middle Eastern oil is absolute (90% of imports), with the first trading relationship agreed and formulated with Saudi Arabia as far back as 1955. This complete reliance on oil imports is replicated with gas - the other “Blue Riband” energy event. Again, Japan has no material indigenous production, so 85m tonnes of Liquified Natural Gas has to be imported each year. A fifth of this comes from the Middle East, but this time it is Australia in the gold medal position, with a 40% share of the Japanese market. As an island state with no inter-connecting pipelines, all Japanese gas has to be imported by ship, making the country the largest global importer of natural gas in the world. It is also a key factor behind Japan’s Olympic standard mercantile fleet, with over 1,000 Japanese flagged oil, gas and chemical tankers plying the world’s seas...

The strategic thinking behind having such a strong shipping fleet is no doubt along the lines of “if you can’t control the product, you better control the transportation” and a similar line of thought has been applied to Japan’s energy manufacturing sector. The country may be short of oil, but it certainly makes up for it

“Nuclear has become the forgotten man of the energy sector”

when it comes to the processing of the stuff, with 21 refineries and a total daily throughput capacity of 3.5m bpd. As a comparison, the UK with roughly half the population of Japan (65m Brits to Japan’s 125m), has only six refineries and a combined capacity of circa 1m bpd.

So far, so (old school) fuel, but it should also be noted that Japan now has far more automotive electric charge points (just shy of 50,000) than it does petrol stations. This aggressive electrification of the transport fleet is largely the result of strategic shifts made by the country’s leading car manufacturers (Toyota, Nissan, Honda), rather than any green legislation emanating from the Japanese government. In fact in most environmental disciplines, Japan lags well behind European and American states. The country still relies on (imported) coal for a quarter of its electricity and a further 40% comes from a combination of natural gas and oil. Renewables only account for 10% of the energy mix, whilst nuclear is now a shadow of the pre-Fukishima period, when it contributed over a third of the nation’s electric power (via 50 nuclear generators). That figure is now down to 3% from the country’s four remaining generators.

No place for Japan on the green podium just yet then, although along with many other developed nations, Japan has committed to ‘Net Zero’ by 2050. Their Green Growth strategy has identified 12 sectors that can contribute to this decarbonisation agenda and these include renewable energies, hydrogen production and carbon capture/ recycling. Even more fundamental however is the inclusion and significant focus on the recovery of the nuclear industry, to help meet low carbon targets. The logic of including this zero emission energy source is clear and Portland feels it will be a blueprint for other developed nations, as they grapple with the practical problems of decarbonising fossil fuel dependent economies. Just like Seb Coe prior to the 1984 Los Angeles Olympics, nuclear has become the forgotten man of the energy sector - written off, criticised and unloved.

Coe bounced back at the LA Coliseum in the 1,500m final and comfortably took gold - could the nuclear industry do the same and defy the doubters? We’ll see, but in the meantime enjoy the Olympics and remember that the guy on the electric bike with the rucksack (why?!) cannot win a medal at the Keirin…! www.passengertransport.co.uk

21/07/2021 16:05

“A missed opportunity on a major scale. Ministers are, frankly, gutless on the matter”

GREAT MINSTER GRUMBLES

Have we produced a plan without a plan?

Our Whitehall insider imagines what’s going on inside the minds of the mandarins at Great Minster House, home of the DfT

Well, it’s out - at last. First, I must apologise for any confusion my last column may have created by suggesting that the publication of the Transport Decarbonisation Plan was on the point of publication but, at the same time, also suggesting that its publication was delayed while ministers sought to make it more ambitious. Just goes to show you can’t take all rumours and counter-rumours too seriously!

So, have we come up with a decarbonisation plan that is indeed ambitious? I suspect it depends on how you look at all of this. At one level achieving Net Zero by 2050 is very ambitious so by definition the decarbonisation plan itself must be ambitious too, mustn’t it?

But the plan itself is little more than a re-hash of previously stated policies, with the notable exception of HGVs where we have announced our intention to phase out the sale of new diesel and petrol HGVs by 2040. But that aside, I can’t see much that is new in all of this in terms of how we might actually achieve Net Zero, so to that extent you could argue the plan lacks ambition.

The plan and the associated rail environment policy statement were published while I was away for a week at the seaside so it’s important I don’t rush to conclusions without having actually read the documents first - I at least owe that to my colleagues before rushing to comment too much. Still, some of the media coverage and industry comment I have seen has been less than complimentary.

I will, however, make two comments before www.passengertransport.co.uk

PT246p24-25 25

putting a wet towel around my head and ploughing through all the paperwork. First, if the decarbonisation plan really is a re-hash of previously stated polices, why did it take so long to publish it and why was its publication pushed back and back on so many occasions?

If the plan contains a genuinely new suite of policies to achieve Net Zero then delay is entirely understandable. But if not, such a lengthy delay is simply incomprehensible.

Second, it’s really disappointing, to my mind, that the government has once again ducked the issue of road pricing. Surely the

COMMENT

decarbonisation plan was a golden opportunity to start to really push this issue, especially as it feels to me the public is increasingly aware of the importance of decarbonisation and more and more willing to accept that this has to be paid for in one form or another, so long as that payment is fair. And let’s be in no doubt that technology is now so developed that road pricing can be made to be a very fair tax, indeed even a progressive one, so that the more you use the road, especially congested roads at peak times, the more you pay. What’s unfair about that?

But ministers still seem to be unwilling to address the issue. They sense that the public is opposed to road pricing even though there is a general acceptance of the decarbonisation agenda. But this is largely because ministers have failed to make any attempt to explain how road pricing might work. It’s as if there is a collective ministerial mental block on the matter – and this applies to both Conservative and Labour governments, because let’s remember that when Ruth Kelly was Labour’s transport secretary in 2007/08 she was brave enough to float the idea - ever so quietly mind you - in a roads white paper only for this then to be vetoed by Geoff Hoon when he replaced her.

If ministers really did want the decarbonisation plan to be ambitious then they should have had the bravery to use the plan as the means to kick-start a debate about the merits of road pricing. But they failed to do so, and as a result I see the plan as a missed opportunity on a major scale. Ministers are, frankly, gutless on the matter. Also, as a result we still have no answer to how ministers plan to fill the looming financial black hole represented by the rapidly declining intake from fuel duty as we progressively transfer to electric cars.

Will we achieve Net Zero? To be honest, I’ve no idea. Ministers will say there are exciting innovative technical developments taking place which will make a real contribution to this challenge, for example in aviation. But this is putting a lot of faith in technical innovation which may not deliver, or at least not deliver in time. Professor David Bailey from the Birmingham Business School described the decarbonisation plan as “a date without a plan.” I must read it first, but it seems to me that, despite the spin from our secretary of state, that sums it up quite nicely. A plan without a plan!

23 July 2021 | 25

21/07/2021 16:05

CAREERS

CALL NOW TO ADVERTISE 020 3950 8000 or email sales@passengertransport.co.uk

Cheeseman quits Hull Trains for TfL role Louise Cheeseman has been named as TfL’s new director of buses Transport for London has announced that Louise Cheeseman, currently managing director of open access train operator Hull Trains, has been appointed as its new director of buses.

She succeeds Claire Mann in the post who left TfL earlier this year to join South Western Railway as managing director (PT235).

Cheeseman has been MD of Hull Trains since 2018. TfL says that in that role she has achieved significant improvements in both performance and customer experience, while overseeing the introduction of a new fleet of more environmentally friendly trains.

Cheeseman started in the rail industry in 2001 as a guard with Northern Rail. Being quickly promoted through safety and

MILESTONE FOR HS2 APPRENTICES 650 out of 2,000 planned apprentices appointed

HS2 Ltd has announced it has reached another major milestone in its bid to build a lasting legacy of skills and education with the appointment of Danielle Taylor as the project’s 650th apprentice.

Taylor has secured a ‘Level Two’ plant operator apprenticeship with Flannery, a contractor with HS2’s construction partner Balfour Beatty VINCI. HS2 has made a commitment to create 2,000 apprenticeships during the life span of the project.

26 | 23 July 2021 PT246p26-27 26

operations roles, she became the general manager for Docklands Light Railway, which included responsibility for managing operations for the 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Following this, she spent some time in Sydney to assist in the preparation of a light rail bid.

Cheeseman then spent a further two years with Metrolink in Manchester as service delivery director before joining Hull Trains in a similar capacity. She acted as

Louise Cheeseman

interim MD of the open access operator between March and June 2018.

Commenting on Cheeseman’s appointment, Gareth Powell, TfL’s managing director of surface transport, said: “I’m thrilled that Louise will be joining us to lead the decarbonisation of London’s buses while helping this iconic form of transport support London’s sustainable recovery.

“Louise’s proven track record of success in operations and people leadership stood out in a high-calibre field of candidates.

I’m very much looking forward to working with Louise at such an important time for the city.”

Cheeseman said the opportunity to run the London bus network, which she described as the beating heart of the capital’s transport system, “is enormously exciting and I can’t wait to get started”. She will take up her new post on August 2.

Media specialist joins Reading Buses Tom Broadfoot gains role at council-owned operator Tom Broadfoot has joined Reading Buses as the councilowned operator’s new marketing and PR executive.

Broadfoot is a journalism graduate and has 15 years’ experience in creating media content. After gaining his degree in 2010 he became a digital media account manager before joining Prospect School as

Tom Broadfoot

marketing officer.

Broadfoot was latterly senior digital content executive at Henley Business School.

Tanya Neech

NEECH JOINS ZEMO PARTNERSHIP New appointments to decarbonisation body Tanya Neech, sustainability officer at Scania (Great Britain), has been appointed to the board of Zemo Partnership, the multi-stakeholder partnership formerly known as LowCVP, working to deliver the UK’s transport decarbonisation objectives.

Neech joins the 18-strong Zemo Partnership board with three other appointees - Tim Anderson, UK head of transport for the Energy Saving Trust, Richard Cuerden, director of the TRL Academy, Transport Research Laboratory, and Glenn Saint, vice president - commercial vehicles at electric bus start-up Arrival.

Neech brings five years of experience of working with sustainability issues at Scania to the Zemo Partnership. During that time, her work has encompassed working with both head office and dealer staff as well as external agencies in order to define and implement sustainability policies and goals spanning every aspect of Scania’s truck, bus, coach and power solutions operations, and associated services.

“Our wholehearted congratulations go to Tanya on this important appointment,” said Martin Hay, Scania (Great Britain) managing director. “Scania is firmly committed to driving the shift towards more sustainable transport solutions.” www.passengertransport.co.uk

21/07/2021 16:59

ONE GREAT ADVERT, ONE GREAT MAGAZINE We are offering reduced rates on recruitment advertising.

No gimmicks, no bolt-on extras, just one great advert in one great magazine... for one great price! £250 quarter page | £400 half page | £700 full page Prices do not include VAT

You will also receive...

A FREE online listing on passengertransport.co.uk FREE promotion on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn and a FREE advertisement if you’re not satisfied by the response (but we’re sure you will be!)

BOOK TODAY Call us on 020 3950 8000 or email sales@passengertransport.co.uk PT246p26-27 27

21/07/2021 16:59

DIVERSIONS

Pacers have a vital new role for communities

Huddersfield Station for a local charity. The vehicle is the second of the retired trains to be delivered to community projects as part of DfT’s ‘Transform a Pacer’ competition in the north of England. The first was

delivered to a Bradford school where it will be converted into a science laboratory.

The unit delivered to the Platform 1 charity, which provides mental health support, first entered service in 1986 and had clocked up over three million miles in service.

Now it will assist the charity by providing new space to offer mental health support services.

“Now that Pacers are off the network with modern, new trains running in their place, passengers will be pleased to know the Pacer at the platform is retired from service, but still helping the people of Huddersfield,” said rail minister Chris Heaton-Harris.

it will be sticking its neck out on routes across Edinburgh this summer.

Bus manufacturer Alexander Dennis got into the spirit of

things on social media, noting that the giraffe print vehicle “goes by the scientific name of Alexander Dennis Enviro400XLB”.

What’s that in Latin?

Mental health charity acquires a Pacer train The last of the much maligned Pacer train fleet has been withdrawn from frontline service and now some of the life-expired rolling stock are finding new lives.

While a number of Pacers have escaped the scrapyard and found a new purpose on Britain’s preserved railways, some are enjoying retirement as community venues in all sorts of places.

Last week a retired Pacer unit was lowered into position at

A GIRAFFE ABOUT TOWN If the sudden appearance of six-foot tall ‘Cobbles’ the Scottie Dog on the streets of Edinburgh wasn’t enough to satiate the interest of visitors and residents of the Scottish capital alike, Lothian Buses has also launched a bus dressed like a giraffe.

To celebrate Edinburgh Zoo’s new giraffe house opening to the public, the special giraffe printwrapped bus has joined the herd, sorry, fleet of Lothian Buses and

All aboard!

SUBSCRIPTION ORDER FORM

CARD NUMBER

Passenger Transport provides business news, information and comment on the UK passenger transport scene every fortnight. All annual subscription rates include delivery by second-class post, or airmail for overseas.

ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION RATES 6 mth UK: £80 1 yr UK: £140 Europe: £220 ROW: £280 2 yr UK: £250 (10% discount)

NAME

WWW.PASSENGERTRANSPORT.CO.UK Email: subs@passengertransport.co.uk Return to: Subscriptions, Passenger Transport Publishing Ltd, PO Box 5496, Westbury BA13 9BX

28 | 23 July 2021 PT246p28 28

EXPIRY DATE

A WARM WELCOME FROM ‘COBBLES’ As the tourist season ramps up, Edinburgh Bus Tours has welcomed a new addition to its team - ‘Cobbles’ the Scottie Dog, the company’s new official ambassador.

Named by colleagues after Auld Reekie’s setted streets, Cobbles will soon be rolling over for customers as they board one of the company’s open top tours.

“Cobbles has been learning all of our tour routes and finding out lots of information about our city,” said communications director Gaynor Marshall.

In light of the recent warm weather, we feel quite sorry for whoever is on Cobbles duty!

SEEN SOMETHING QUIRKY? Why not drop us a line at editorial@passengertransport.co.uk

Having a giraffe?

PLEASE START MY SUBSCRIPTION TO PASSENGER TRANSPORT

Just a six-foot tall Scottie dog

I enclose a cheque for £ made payable to Passenger Transport Publishing Limited Please invoice my company (official order enclosed) I authorise you to debit my Mastercard/VISA/Maestro/VISA Electron card. Amount £

PT246

SECURITY CODE SIGNATURE

JOB TITLE COMPANY ADDRESS

POSTCODE TEL EMAIL

DATE

www.passengertransport.co.uk

21/07/2021 16:56