Passenger Transport: October 1, 2021

YEARS 2011 | 2021

ISSUE 250 1 OCTOBER 2021

NEWS, VIEWS AND ANALYSIS FOR A SECTOR ON THE MOVE

The end of an era

NEWS

Government seizes Southeastern

04

Go-Ahead ousted over ‘financial errors’

ENVIRONMENT

Coalition urges faster roll out of green buses

12 Stagecoach and National Express are in merger talks. The new combined group would operate one third of Britain’s buses outside of London Stagecoach is synonymous with Britain’s privatised public transport sector. But with that industry now evolving into one where the public sector will play a much greater role, the group looks set to exit the stage.

Who approached whom is not known, but Stagecoach and National Express Group revealed last week that they were in merger talks. The deal that is proposed seems more like a takeover by NEG, with Stagecoach shareholders receiving a 25% stake in the new combined group. The ‘Big Five’ groups that have dominated the UK’s public transport sector since the 1990s could soon become the ‘Big Four’.

This reflects the fact that NEG is a significantly larger group, with Stagecoach having disposed

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of its large bus operations in North America and exited the UK rail sector. NEG, which has large operations in North America and Spain, currently has a market capitalisation of £1.55bn compared to Stagecoach’s £488m.

It is envisaged that Stagecoach chairman Ray O’Toole will become chairman of the combined group. He served 10 years as group chief operating officer and UK chief executive at NEG before leaving in 2010.

NEG chief executive Jose

“The deal that is proposed seems more like a takeover by NEG”

Ignacio Garat and chief financial officer Chris Davies will retain their roles in the combined group.

Stagecoach remains Britain’s largest bus and coach operator, with around 26% of the bus market outside London (NEG has 7%) and NEG has identified annual savings of £35m as well as opportunities to grow.

The two groups say that a major benefit of their merger would be the ability to maintain NEG’s express coaches at Stagecoach’s network of depots. They also see an opportunity to use Stagecoach to develop NEG’s private hire coach, corporate shuttle and accessible transport businesses.

NEG has until October 19 to announce a firm intention to make an offer for its UK rival.

MORE ON PAGES 3, 25

Government pushed to provide road map

INNOVATION & TECH

Go North East teams up with car club

14

Partners offer new multi-modal option

COMMENT

‘We need radical actions, not hot air’

16

Norman Baker looks ahead to COP26

COMMENT

‘Branding must not suffer’

20

Alex Warner fears a hiatus on the railway

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CONTENTS

PASSENGER TRANSPORT PO Box 5496, Westbury BA13 9BX 020 3950 8000 editorial@passengertransport.co.uk

Stagecoach approaches the end of its journey On October 9 it will be 41 years since brother and sister Brian Souter and Ann Gloag founded Stagecoach. Born out of deregulation of Britain’s express coach market in the early 1980s, the group leapt on the opportunities provided by bus and rail Robert Jack privisation. It built a reputation for ruthlessness, Managing Editor but it also gained respect for its operations.

It now seems unlikely that Stagecoach will be around for its 42nd birthday. Merger talks with the much larger National Express Group have begun and the Perth-based group will be absorbed into a new combined group. The ‘Big Five’ that have dominated the UK public transport scene since the 1990s will become the ‘Big Four’.

NEG and Stagecoach have explained their logic for teaming up, but we can also speculate about other forces behind this deal.

The pandemic may have provided an impetus by suppressing share prices and making the case for larger, diversified groups. But what about this year’s decision by Souter and Gloag to reduce their stake in Stagecoach from 27% to 5% over 10 years (it’s currently around 25%)?

One City source told me that this effectively hoisted a ‘for sale’ sign over the group. The government’s desire to take a more hands-on approach to both bus and rail goes against everything that Souter believes in. In Dragon’s Den terminology, he declared “I’m out”.

Are we witnessing the birth of a new generation of public transport group to reflect the start of a new era for UK public transport?

HAVE YOUR SAY Contact us with your news, views and opinion at: editorial@passengertransport.co.uk PASSENGER TRANSPORT editorial@passengertransport.co.uk forename.surname@ passengertransport.co.uk Telephone: 020 3950 8000 Managing Editor & Publisher Robert Jack Deputy Editor Andrew Garnett Contributing Writer Rhodri Clark Directors Chris Cheek, Andrew Garnett, Robert Jack, George Muir, John Nelson OFFICE CONTACT DETAILS Passenger Transport Publishing Ltd PO Box 5496, Westbury BA13 9BX, UNITED KINGDOM Telephone (all enquiries):

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IN THIS ISSUE 22

ARE WE SEEING THE DEATH OF RUSH HOUR?

15

GO-AHEAD PROMOTES ‘SMART MOBILITY HUBS’

23

HOW CAN TRANSPORT ACHIEVE NET ZERO?

25

NX-STAGECOACH DEAL IS THE END OF AN ERA

Post-pandemic travel behaviour suggests that the morning peak is not what it used to be. “Whether or not rush hour is dead, we need to re-think how we plan our transport capacity to be more effective and efficient,” writes Nick Richardson.

ORGANISATION

PAGE

Alexander Dennis 12, 13 Arup 15 Arriva Rail London 20-21 Avanti West Coast 20-21 Bus Users 10 CitySwift 26 Chiltern Railways 20-21 Co-Wheels 14 CPT 7, 12 First Cymru 10 First West Yorkshire 13 GB Railways 20-21 Go-Ahead Group 4-5, 15 Go North East 14 Govia 4-5 Govia Thameslink Railway 13 Greater Anglia 28 Hull Trains 27 HS2 9, 27 Keolis 4-5 Lloyds Coaches 10 LNER 9 Network Rail 9 Nexus 9 National Express Group 1, 3, 25 NITHC 27 RATP Dev 8 Richard Brothers 10 ScotRail 20-21 SeaLink Travel Group 8 Southeastern 4-5 South Wales Transport 10 Stagecoach 1, 3, 6, 13, 25, 27 Switch Mobility 12 SWR 9, 20-21 Urban Transport Group 7, 12, 13 Vivarail 12 Wrightbus 12

Public transport operator Go-Ahead has teamed up with global engineering and consulting firm Arup to create a blueprint which better integrates public transport with walking, cycling, micromobility and digital services.

Today Greener Transport Solutions publishes a new report which calls for national plan to deliver real and rapid behaviour change. Claire Haigh explains why urgent attention must be given to reducing the volume of traffic on our roads.

Our Whitehall insider imagines what’s going on inside the minds of the mandarins at Great Minster House, home of the DfT. Commenting on the proposed merger of National Express Group and Stagecoach: “I suspect we may see more ownership.”

REGULARS NEWS ENVIRONMENT INNOVATION & TECH COMMENT GRUMBLES CAREERS DIVERSIONS

04 12 14 16 25 26 28

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NEWS EXTRA SOUTHEASTERN

Government seizes control of Southeastern Move follows discovery of ‘clear, compelling and serious evidence’ of breach of the franchise agreement in relation to a profit sharing mechanism Go-Ahead Group was thrown into chaos this week after Andrew Garnett transport Deputy Editor secretary Grant Shapps announced the government would seize control of the Southeastern rail contract from October 17. The move followed the London-based group admitting to financial errors in calculating ‘profit share’ over a number of years and undisclosed “related additional matters”.

In a statement the Department for Transport said it had identified evidence that since October 2014 franchise holder London & South Eastern Railway (LSER) had not declared over £25m of historic taxpayer funding which should have been returned.

“To date £25m has been recovered and further investigations are being conducted by the owning group into all related historic contract issues with LSER,” said the DfT. “Following these investigations, the government will consider further options for enforcement action, including statutory financial penalties under the Railways Act 1993.”

Go-Ahead and joint venture partner Keolis had been in negotiation to renew their contract for Southeastern. In March last year Govia, the joint venture between the two groups, was awarded a Direct Award to continue operating the franchise 04 | 1 October 2021 PT250p04-05.indd 4

until October 16, 2021. The deal included an option for the DfT to extend the contract until March 31, 2022.

But as talks continued over a potential extension, it became increasingly clear that all was not well. Go-Ahead’s full year results for the year ending June 27, 2020, which were made public in September last year, revealed that earlier that year Shapps had notified LSER that it was required to recalculate the profit share payable over the period from October 12, 2014 to June 29, 2019.

At the time Go-Ahead said LSER had provided an explanation for the historical calculation of profit share. “Any additional amounts payable are disputed,” the group said. It then suggested that if the government’s claim was successful “then the outflow of resources could be in the region of £8m”.

Discussions between the two sides appear to have continued and by August both Go-Ahead and Keolis had commissioned an independent review into the dispute, but by that point Go-Ahead had acknowledged that errors had been made in relation to the financial management of the franchise.

It appears the scale of the scandal was such that the government was by now unwilling to extend Govia’s contract.

On Tuesday morning transport secretary Grant Shapps announced the government’s Operator of Last Resort would be

appointed to take over services from October 17.

In a statement the DfT said that on the basis of the available evidence, it considered the financial errors to be such a significant breach of the good faith obligation within the franchise agreement that it would not proceed with the extension.

“The government believes it is essential that there is public trust in operators, who should prioritise the very best for passengers,” it said. “Given the government’s commitment to protecting taxpayers’ interests, this decision makes clear we will hold private sector operators to the highest standards, and take swift, effective and meaningful action against those who fall short.”

Shapps said there was “clear, compelling and serious evidence” that LSER had breached the trust that is absolutely fundamental to the success of the railway.

“When trust is broken, we will act decisively,” he said.

Shapps continued: “The decision to take control of services makes unequivocally clear that we will not accept anything less from the private sector than a total commitment to their passengers and absolute transparency with taxpayer support.

“Under the new operator, we will prioritise the punctual, reliable services passengers deserve, rebuild trust in this network, and the delivery of the reforms set out in our Plan for

Southeastern will join LNER and Northern in state control

Rail - to build a modern railway that meets the needs of a nation.”

Go-Ahead reacted quickly to the stripping of its contract. As a consequence of the ongoing discussions with the DfT regarding the profit share, it announced it would postpone announcing the group’s results of the year ending July 3 until a later date. The group also revealed group chief financial officer Elodie Brian had resigned and would stand down with immediate effect. She will be replaced on an interim basis by Gordon Boyd, an experienced ‘interim chief financial officer’.

“It has always been this group’s www.passengertransport.co.uk

29/09/2021 17:21

Elodie Brian had been Go-Ahead CFO since 2019

BRIAN QUITS AS GROUP’S CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER

Resignation follows 13 years with Go-Ahead PEOPLE

“We will not accept anything less from the private sector than a total commitment to their passengers” intention to provide the best possible public transport, and to work in partnership with the government and related agencies,” said Go-Ahead chair Clare Hollingsworth. “We recognise that mistakes have been made and we sincerely apologise to the DfT. We are working constructively with the DfT towards a settlement of this matter.”

The transfer of Southeastern to join LNER and Northern in state www.passengertransport.co.uk

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control means an unprecedented three rail operations will be controlled by the Operator of Last Resort from next month.

“The transport secretary has tasked the expert leadership of the Operator of Last Resort to focus on the delivery of punctual and reliable services, on an affordable and sustainable railway, by rapidly progressing the reforms established by the Williams-Shapps Plan for Rail,”

said the DfT. “In future, we will move the services back into the private sector on a new Passenger Services Contract, allowing private sector investment and innovation to lead the way in delivering a regional railway that works for its passengers.”

It said the immediate priority at Southeastern would be on introducing the Class 707 EMU fleet onto Metro routes alongside passenger and security improvements.

“Further details on the new Operator of Last Resort will be set out in due course,” the DfT added.

The departure of Elodie Brian as Go-Ahead’s chief financial officer followed a 13-year career with the group and its subsidiaries.

Brian joined Southeastern as financial planning manager in 2008 and was promoted to deputy finance and contracts director at the train operator in the summer of 2011.

She was appointed as Southeastern’s finance and contracts director in June 2014 following the promotion of Wilma Allan to the role of chief financial officer at Govia Thameslink Railway. After a period as interim chief financial officer at Go-Ahead from late 2018, Brian took on the top job as the group’s chief financial officer in April 2019.

Meanwhile, the scandal at Southeastern threatens to cast a shadow over the final few weeks of David Brown’s tenure as group chief executive.

In May he announced he planned to step down by the end of the year after more than 10 years leading the group in a move that surprised many industry observers (PT242).

Former Transdev and Deutsche Bahn executive Christian Schreyer is due to join Go-Ahead on November 1 and then succeed Brown as chief executive on November 5.

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NEWS ROUND-UP

Stagecoach urges UK bus stimulus package Tax incentives, lower fares and a national bus marketing campaign POLICY

Stagecoach has called on the UK Government to use the forthcoming spending review to put in place a stimulus package to incentivise a return to Britain’s buses to help drive regional economies and deliver on the country’s net zero ambitions.

Britain’s biggest bus and coach operator, which is currently the subject of a takeover bid from National Express Group has submitted a six-point plan (see panel) with a raft of policy proposals in advance of the spending review on October 27.

The aim is to get Britain back on board the bus as it looks to live with the remaining impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Stagecoach policy proposals include tax incentives, discounted fares and a national bus marketing campaign to match the recently launched advertising push to attract consumers back to trains.

The company has also called for reform of motoring tax and a clear government roadmap for investment to support the decarbonisation of the bus sector and deliver 4,000 new promised electric buses in England.

Latest Department for Transport data shows that while car use has surged to as high as 111% of pre-pandemic levels, bringing growing road congestion and pollution, bus use in both London and regions across the country has lagged behind.

Bus journeys have plateaued at around 70% of pre-pandemic 6 | 1 October 2021 PT250p06-07.indd 6

levels, despite current government support packages and services operating at least 90% of prepandemic networks. Pre-Covid, bus passengers were responsible for around 30% of spending in towns and city centres. Journeys by concessionary passengers, including senior citizens, have lagged further behind, raising

concerns over social isolation among vulnerable groups.

“Bus networks are the arteries behind the social and economic heartbeat of Britain’s towns and cities,” said Stagecoach chief executive Martin Griffiths. “They are also central to delivering on the country’s net zero ambitions and creating healthier, more

“We need urgent government action and innovative policies to support the efforts of operators to re-boot bus use” STAGECOACH’S SIX-POINT PLAN ‘BACK TO BUS’ MARKETING CAMPAIGN A joint bus sector and government campaign to reaffirm the safety of bus services and counteract the negative impact of health messaging during the pandemic. This would be fronted by senior government ministers.

TAX CREDITS FOR PUBLIC TRANSPORT SEASON TICKETS An initiative to incentivise the purchase of monthly and annual travel cards through a salary sacrifice scheme administered by employers.

NATIONAL JOBSEEKER OR UNIVERSAL CREDIT BUS SCHEME Stagecoach funds the UK’s only national discounted bus travel scheme for jobseekers, offering a 50% discount to help individuals find work. Trips under the scheme have increased by 115% since May. This approach could be extended nationally, potentially including all Universal Credit claimants.

FAST-TRACKED FUNDING FOR FARES SCHEME PILOTS The National Bus Strategy is targeting lower bus fares, but funding for this will not be available until April 2022. Fast-tracking funding for local authorities to support pilot projects from January 2022 would help boost FESTIVE FARES INITIATIVE TO SUPPORT HIGH STREET RECOVERY A government-backed time-limited bus fare reduction scheme in December would help rebuild bus use and support local high streets.

MOBILITY CREDITS SCHEME Providing financial incentives to motorists to scrap older diesel cars in return for credits to spend on sustainable transport options, including buses.

connected communities.

“Government messaging during 18 months of the pandemic has negatively impacted public perceptions of public transport and is holding back Britain’s buses.

We need urgent government action and innovative policies to support the efforts of operators to re-boot bus use and unlock their power to kick-start the country’s recovery from the pandemic.”

The Stagecoach submission urges the government to consider wider reform of motoring taxation to encourage a shift to more sustainable bus travel, with the decarbonisation of road transport expected to have a significant impact on future tax receipts from fuel duty.

Moving to a pay-per-mile form of taxation for private cars, with appropriate mitigations, would increase awareness of the true cost of motoring and support a shift to available public transport or active travel alternatives.

Griffiths said: “Governments of all colours have for too long shied away from tackling the critical issue of growing and unsustainable car use. Current taxation policy is out of step with the strategy to deliver net zero. It has effectively made motoring cheaper, while the road congestion it causes has increased air pollution, accelerated the climate emergency and damaged public transport networks by making services more costly and less reliable.

“With the shift to electric vehicles, the country is also facing a significant black hole in public finances from declining fuel tax revenues. A new payper-mile regime for private cars, with measures to protect less well-connected rural areas and combined with other incentives, would help drive a return to public transport and more sustainable communities.” www.passengertransport.co.uk

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Government may miss climate targets - UTG. Page 13

‘London-style’ buses at heart of mayor’s plans Buses key to Andy Burnham’s levelling-up agenda REGULATION

Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham says he plans to place a London style transport system at the heart of the region’s bid for a ‘Levelling Up Deal’ with government.

Burnham told members of the combined authority last week that it was only by investing in low carbon forms of transport “that we can genuinely connect all GM residents to the many economic opportunities that exist clustered in a conurbation like Greater Manchester”. “That connection is vital to Levelling Up,” he added.

The mayor told members that a locally-controlled integrated transport network with full

CPT CALLS FOR TC BUDGET CONTROL Move would help counter resourcing issues REFORM

In its response to the current consultation on the future function of the traffic commissioner’s (TC), the Confederation of Passenger Transport has praised their work but highlighted that more budgetary control would help them overcome resourcing issues.

The bus and coach trade association says TCs perform many vital functions for the industry and they possess local knowledge which is invaluable to addressing issues in the regions they cover. But it warns the ability of TCs to provide these services has, in recent years, www.passengertransport.co.uk

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accountability would enable the region to make a “vital contribution” to the national challenges of decarbonisation and Levelling Up. He added this network would be supported by investment in infrastructure and services through the City Region Sustainable Transport Settlement (CRSTS) and the region’s Bus Service Improvement Plan (BSIP).

But Burnham added that buses would play a crucial role in the new integrated ‘Bee Network’.

“Our vision is for a bus system

“Our vision is for a bus system that is fully integrated” Andy Burnham

been constrained by availability of resources and staffing, which has led to delays.

To overcome this it says TCs should be given more budgetary control and independence from the DVSA. CPT says this would allow them to address issues around staffing and resources and ensure that operators receive a decision as quickly as possible.

“Traffic Commissioners have unrivalled knowledge of the public service vehicle industry and are experts on the issues in their local area,” said CPT’s operations director Keith McNally. “Their role is vital to many functions across our sector, from making sure bus registrations are held centrally to providing fair, transparent hearings in cases of misconduct or public inquiries.”

McNally added that staffing

that is fully integrated with our Metrolink and rail services, connecting our communities with fast, high quality, connections that are fully accessible to all,” he said.

“We will also use franchising to significantly reduce the existing network’s carbon emissions, and have included proposals within our CRSTS bid to replace 50% of the current fossil fuelled fleet with new, zero emission electric vehicles, equipped with high quality passenger information and audio visual announcements by 2027.”

He said that while franchising would give Greater Manchester the platform and the “keys to the system”, Burnham claimed the network needed investment following the pandemic and “25 years of decline”.

Burnham continued: “By

and resourcing issues have in the past led to delays to the Traffic Commissioners being able to provide their services. He continued: “We know they have always worked to reduce delays as much as possible.

“They must now be given more budgetary control so they can continue to perform their role in a timely manner.”

McNally: ‘TCs must be give more budgetary control’

harnessing the benefits of the franchised model, our Bus Services Improvement Plan will set out how, in partnership with government, Greater Manchester can strengthen the reach, affordability, integration and accessibility of bus services to a ‘London Standard’, with ‘turn up and go’ style services, for reliable, affordable and easier journeys, properly integrated with Metrolink through a single ticket and simple, capped fares.”

Meanwhile, Burnham also outlined a ‘Streets for All’ approach that aims to create “more welcoming and greener streets”.

“At the heart of our Streets for All Strategy is our commitment to active travel and bus priority,” said Burnham. This would include around 1,800 miles of cycling and walking infrastructure as well as 50km of new quality bus transit corridors and refurbishment of the existing 200km of network.

He said this would transform bus journey times between town centres across the region.

UTG GAINS NEW CA MEMBER

Cambridgeshire and Peterborough joins group NETWORKS

The Urban Transport Group has welcomed Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Combined Authority as its latest associate member, meaning UTG now has members from all 10 combined authority areas, as well as from each of the four nations of the United Kingdom.

“The challenges of the past year have, more than ever, served to highlight the value of being part of a network of authorities, working together to find solutions through the sharing of knowledge and experience,” said Jonathan Bray, UTG’s director.

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NEWS ROUND-UP

RATP Dev to form West London bus JV Australian and French firms to combine London bus interests ACQUISITIONS

French group RATP Dev and Australia-based SeaLink Travel Group have announced a new joint venture that will bring together their bus interests in west and north London.

The move will see RATP Dev’s London Sovereign and London United operations combined with SeaLink’s Tower Transit business based at Westbourne Park garage.

Under the terms of the agreement, RATP Dev will operate as the majority partner owning 87.5% of the combined business.

In west London the new RATP Dev Transit London business will have over 1,250 vehicles and employ over 4,000 staff.

It is expected the transfer of the operations will be completed in December, subject to approval from Transport for London and the completion of financial arrangements relating to certain property and vehicle assets.

Tower Transit’s operation at Lea Interchange in east London is not included in the deal and its future appears to be far from secure. “Options for this asset are still being analysed, with an outcome expected in a similar timeframe to the completion of the transaction,” said SeaLink.

The Australian-owned business has struggled to gain scale in recent years following a significant number of contract losses. The business has its origins in the 2013 purchase by Australian bus and ferry operator Transit Systems of three of FirstGroup’s London 8 | 1 October 2021 PT250p08-09.indd 8

bus garages.

It is notable that when Transit Systems purchased the garages they operated 400 buses. The most recent data suggests what remains of the operation has a peak vehicle requirement of around 230 buses, just over 100 of which are at Westbourne Park.

In a statement to the Australian stock market, SeaLink described the London bus market as “challenging” and said the combined business would benefit from economies of scale and

allow the two businesses to pool their “significant operational experience including the transition to new technology”.

Commenting on the deal, Mehdi Sinaceur, RATP Dev’s senior vice president for the UK, South Africa and Americas, said: “This partnership will increase our competitiveness, improve our cost base, further our commitment to electrification, enhance our offer to passengers and expand opportunities for employees.”

‘ALL NEW BUSES TO BE ZERO EMISSION’ Capital’s bus fleet will be emission free by 2030 VEHICLES

London mayor Sadiq Khan has announced that all new buses ordered for Transport for London route contracts will now be zero-emission. It is expected the capital’s bus network will now be completely emission free by 2030.

The move builds on the 950 zero-emission buses that are currently either on the road or on order for use on the TfL bus network.

“We’ve done everything possible to make the bus network clean and now we are focussed on making it green, which is why it’s so important that we’re able to commit that all new buses in London will be zero emission,” said Louise Cheeseman, TfL’s director of buses.

on London’s roads

IN BRIEF

RATP Dev will own 87.5% of RATP Dev Transit London

RATP DEV TRANSIT LONDON LONDON SOVEREIGN Peak vehicle requirement : 184 buses Three garages at Edgware, Canons Park and Harrow LONDON UNITED Peak vehicle requirement : 726 buses Nine garages at Fulwell, Hounslow, Hounslow Heath, Park Royal, Shepherd’s Bush, Stamford Brook, Tolworth, Twickenham and Wandsworth TOWER TRANSIT (TO BECOME LONDON TRANSIT) Peak vehicle requirement : 103 buses One garage at Westbourne Park

ROUNDEL PRIDE Ten special Pride roundels have been installed across Tube network to celebrate London’s LGBT+ community. They were specially designed by five members of Transport for London staff and five prominent figures in the LGBT+ London community.

The move aims to act as part of TfL’s continuing support for the LGBT+ community.

STANSTED PARTNERSHIP Stagecoach has concluded an agreement which will see coach tickets between London and Stansted Airport on the independent Airport Bus Express services sold through the Megabus website. The move will also allow passengers to book connections to Stansted via the wider Megabus network.

www.passengertransport.co.uk

29/09/2021 17:49

MPs express alarm at HS2 costs and progress Increasing concern over lack of progress at Euston Station HS2

The influential parliamentary Public Accounts Committee says it is “increasingly alarmed” about key elements of the HS2 programme, particularly the lack of progress at Euston Station, which have the potential to lead to yet more costs, delays and uncertainty over the promised benefits of the project.

The current estimated cost of HS2 is between £72-98bn (2019 prices), compared to an original budget of £55.7bn in 2015 (2015 prices). Civil construction of Phase One is now planned to finish in 2025, with initial Phase One services (Old Oak Common to Birmingham Curzon Street) starting between 2029 and 2033.

Euston station is a key part of this first phase of HS2, but despite the necessary planning

consents being in place since last year, according to HS2 Ltd, the Department for Transport is yet to make key decisions on the design and approach to construction there.

HS2 Ltd told MPs it is “getting close to the point where the programme will literally run out of time” if this next decision is not made soon. The committee says government also still needs to decide how Phase 2b will integrate with other parts of the railway and transport system.

MPs add the increases in costs have dented public confidence, and the volume of complaints about disruption

“This project cannot simply keep sinking more taxpayer funds” Dame Meg Hillier

and environmental damage from construction is rising and expected to increase further.

The committee says HS2 Ltd has an “opportunity to get on the front foot and engage with communities earlier and more successfully than it has done so far” - but MPs say DfT and HS2 Ltd have been unable to tell the committee how they will ensure delivery of the range of the promised benefits of the project.

“HS2 is already one of the single most-expensive taxpayer-funded programmes in the UK but there’s actually no clear end in sight in terms of the final cost, or even the final route,” said committee chair Dame Meg Hillier. “The project was plagued by a lack of planning and transparency from the start.

“This project cannot simply keep sinking more taxpayer funds without greater clarity on the later phases. The development of Euston is a real challenge that must be resolved swiftly now.”

£2M TO DEVELOP STRATFORD PLANS Network Rail wins funding for capacity improvements STATIONS

Network Rail has secured a £2m boost from the Department of Transport to help develop plans to help relieve congestion at London’s Stratford station which has seen a massive increase in footfall over the last decade. The infrastructure controller plans a number of improvements to create more room on specific platforms and around entrances, but further funding will need to be secured. www.passengertransport.co.uk

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ISLAND LINE TO REOPEN South Western Railway has announced that the upgraded Island Line is set to reopen on November 1, subject to the completion of a final round of train safety tests. The £26m project has taken longer to complete as a result of several factors including train testing complications, the pandemic and flash flooding earlier this summer.

on London’s roads

IN BRIEF

YOUNG PEOPLE POP ON Nexus has introduced a pay-asyou-go smartcard product aimed at 19 to 21-year-olds, providing them with 30% off every journey they make. The Pop19-21 card is aimed at students and all young people in that age bracket, who said they wanted greater value and flexibility when they were consulted by Nexus on their travel needs before lockdown. The launch of Pop 19-21 means Metro now offers free travel or smart card discounts for every age group up to 21, following the launch earlier this summer of free travel for children aged 11 and under with a fare-paying adult, alongside cheaper fares for older children and teenagers.

WAKEFIELD STATION AWARD Wakefield Westgate Station has been recognised as the ‘Best Large Station of the Year’ at the National Rail Awards. Awards judges praised the high standard of presentation at the station, the piazza at the front of the station and the great customer service offered by the dedicated LNER Wakefield Westgate team.

WELSH RAIL BOARD A Wales Rail Board is to be created by the UK Government following a recommendation

by MPs on the Welsh Affairs Committee. It will include representatives from the Department for Transport, the Welsh Government, Transport for Wales, Network Rail, Avanti West Coast and GWR. The move follows the publication by the committee of a report probing Welsh rail investment. During the inquiry the Committee was told that a joinedup and clearer approach was needed to unlock rail investment.

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NEWS ROUND-UP

First turns to SMEs to solve driver shortage The growing shortage of bus drivers has seen First Cymru turn to the independent sector to cover its staff shortages. Rhodri Clark reports RECRUITMENT

First Cymru, one of Wales’ largest bus operators, has enlisted help from smaller operators to reduce the impact of driver shortages on the travelling public.

Many operators across Britain have had to reduce services in response to shortages of drivers.

Last week Traveline Cymru said it was working on over 85 changes caused by driver shortages coinciding with the start of the academic year. With so many short-notice changes occurring, its journey planner may not be up to date, it warned.

First Cymru has made numerous changes, suspending one service and reducing frequency on others.

However, last month it called in Morris Travel to operate three routes in the Carmarthen area and passed contracts covering four others to Swansea-based South Wales Transport in perpetuity.

Bev Fowles, managing director of South Wales Transport (SWT), said he would have liked to have helped out on more routes but SWT did not have sufficient capacity to do more. “We’ve stretched ourselves. Bear in mind that we had to do it at short notice,” he told Passenger Transport.

The services have initially used First Cymru buses while vehicles acquired by SWT for the routes were repainted. Local authority officers approved the novation of the contracts.

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First Cymru has had to cut services

than withdrawing the routes.

“It must have been a bitter pill to swallow and a difficult thing to admit, but they’ve worked tirelessly to keep customers being supplied with transport.

“It would have been easy for them just to say: ‘We’re scrapping these services and to hell with the consequences.’ They’ve gone out of their way to talk to some of the smaller operators. You’ve got to take your hat off to them for that.”

The ability of small companies to deploy additional staff while a large company finds itself hamstrung by a shortage might appear to be counter-intuitive.

In other circumstances, large corporations are usually in a better position to withstand

shocks than small businesses.

Fowles said there was a stronger sense of staff loyalty at small bus operators. Some of his own employees had first worked for him when he managed United Welsh Coaches 30 years ago. “Our staff are quite happy to work the patterns we work. We’ve had a higher turnover these last 12 months than we’ve normally had, but there are still people who want to come to work for South Wales Transport.”

However, the nationwide driver shortage was affecting operators of all sizes, he said. He himself has been driving a college bus since the start of this academic year, and other managers and supervisors have also been behind

“It must have been a bitter pill to swallow and a difficult thing to admit”Bev Fowles

the wheel, albeit with a qualified staff member always present at the garage.

Lloyds Coaches of Machynlleth is among the family-owned operators which has had to reduce services due to driver shortages. Timetables on five routes, including two of the main TrawsCymru long-distance routes, were downgraded on September 22.

Richards Brothers of Cardigan has reduced services on the TrawsCymru T5 route. Because of service reductions on the First Cymru-operated T1 between Carmarthen and Aberystwyth, some rural feeder services have been suspended.

Shortly before the timetable reductions began, passenger watchdog body Bus Users wrote to the Welsh Government calling for an urgent package of measures to ensure more drivers are available. Its Wales director, Barclay Davies, wrote: “We were very encouraged on reading the Llwybr Newydd: Wales Transport Strategy about the plans to transform bus travel in Wales and provide passengers with more sustainable travel opportunities.

“We are concerned, however, that ongoing driver shortages may severely impact on the ability to deliver these services and an opportunity will be missed to achieve modal shift and meet decarbonisation and air quality targets.

“We would call on Welsh Government to seize the initiative here, highlight the importance of the role of bus drivers and develop an apprenticeship scheme. We believe that such a scheme, offering participants a living wage and teaching the necessary driving and customer service skills required to become a bus driver, will help address driver shortages over the next five years.” www.passengertransport.co.uk

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ENVIRONMENT

Coalition urges faster roll out of green buses CPT, UTG, bus manufacturers and Unite the Union want the government to set out a clear roadmap for delivering on its zero emission buses pledge ZERO EMISSION BUSES

A coalition representing bus operators, local authorities, manufacturers and workers has called on the government to speed up its zero emission bus roll out or risk missing key targets.

In a letter sent to the secretary of state for transport and the chief secretary to the Treasury the signatories call for the government to use the forthcoming spending review to set out a clear roadmap to deliver significantly more buses on an accelerated timetable and ensure funding reflects the full costs of zero emission vehicle purchase and installation of infrastructure.

The government has so far only provided funding to support the delivery of 900 buses, well short of the prime minister’s 4,000 target for February 2025. The letter warns that without a long-

WRIGHTBUS ZERO EMISSION BUSES New buses will go into production next year ZERO EMISSION BUSES

Wrightbus unveiled two new single deck zero-emission buses at the Millbrook Proving Ground last month.

The Ballymena-based bus builder showcased its new single deck GB Kite Hydroliner bus at the Cenex LCV21 (Low Carbon Vehicle) event on September 22-23. The same technology solution will also be used for a new single deck GB Kite Electroliner battery-powered bus.

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term roadmap meeting the pledge will be extremely challenging and the wider transition to zero emission buses more problematic.

Commenting on the letter CPT chief executive Graham Vidler said: “Operators are committed to transitioning to zero emission fleets, but this requires longterm planning, especially around infrastructure requirements.

By setting out a fully funded, long-term plan the Government will give all those involved the confidence to invest, meaning we can make progress towards the shared goal of decarbonising fleets as cost effectively as possible.

“Without it the industry and wider supply chain has to react to short term uncoordinated funding announcements risking missed targets, increased costs and ultimately a bigger bill for taxpayers.”

Urban Transport Group director Jonathan Bray said: “An accelerated, long-term and funded plan for the decarbonisation of the UK’s bus fleet will create good green jobs and make a vital contribution to the urgent task of cutting greenhouse gas emissions from urban transport.

“Continuing to fund zero emission buses via sporadic

“Continuing to fund zero emission buses via sporadic funding pots ... is yesterday’s solution to an urgent problem of today” Jonathan Bray, Urban Transport Group Wrightbus recently announced the creation of up to 300 permanent jobs after winning a string of orders from across the UK and Ireland. It is also converting 120 existing temporary jobs into permanent positions as it looks to ramp up production.

Its new buses have been developed following the award of funding from the Advanced Propulsion Centre’s Advanced Route to Market Demonstrator (ARMD) Competition.

A demonstration-version of the GB Kite Hydroliner was at LCV21.

The buses are expected to go into production in the first quarter of 2022.

Both GB Kite models can carry

90 passengers. The Hydroliner has a range of up to 640 miles while the Electroliner offers up to 300 miles on a single charge, the fastest charging version takes 2.5 hours. Both buses share 86% parts commonality with their double deck equivalents.

Jo Bamford, Wrightbus executive chairman, said: “We’re continuing to invest not only in employees, but in the technological advances that will keep our buses at the very pinnacle of the industry. I’m proud to say Wrightbus is firmly back in business, creating jobs not just in Northern Ireland but indirectly across the UK supply chain.”

funding pots which local authorities have to waste time and resources competing for is yesterday’s solution to an urgent problem of today. Instead we need a coordinated and funded plan (which encompasses both the vehicles and the supporting green energy infrastructure) to give the decarbonisation of the bus fleet the same priority that the government is giving to decarbonising cars.”

The letter also highlighted the benefits to the zero-emission transition and wider climate change goals of delivering, alongside the roadmap, a range of measures to encourage people to switch journeys from car to bus.

SIGNATORIES TO THE LETTER Graham Vidler, chief executive, Confederation of Passenger Transport; Paul Davies, president and managing director, Alexander Dennis Limited; Buta Atwal, chief executive, Wrightbus; Robert Drewery, commercial director, Switch Mobility; Steve Turner, assistant general secretary manufacturing, Unite the Union; Jonathan Bray, Director, Urban Transport Group

VIVARAIL BATTERY TRAIN FOR COP26 Zero-emission train uses new batteries DECARBONISATION

Vivarail’s next-generation battery train will be launched at COP26 and will run daily services throughout the international climate change conference. This zero-emission train uses new batteries to combine maximum range with the ability to recharge quickly. The result is a train that can travel for up to 80 miles on battery power and recharge in only 10 minutes. www.passengertransport.co.uk

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How can transport achieve net zero? Page 18

Government may miss climate targets - UTG More local transport spending urged to deliver objectives DECARBONISATION

The government will fail to meet its objectives around carbon reduction unless it increases spending on local transport as part of the spending review.

That is the warning from transport bodies in the seven largest UK city regions (Greater Manchester, Liverpool City Region, London, South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, Tyne and Wear and the West Midlands), which collectively form the Urban Transport Group.

In a submission to the Treasury ahead of the spending review this month, the Urban Transport Group said that “incremental policy change” will not be sufficient to deliver the scale of

modal shift and investment in zero emission vehicles that is needed to meet decarbonisation goals. Cycling levels remain stubbornly low, at just 2% of trips (in 2019), while the car continues to dominate trip share at 61% of trips (in 2019).

The cities also highlighted how local public transport networks, which are vital in supporting the government’s £4.8bn programme of levelling up, are becoming less available and more expensive, leaving some people isolated from opportunities and wider society.

“The UK’s ambition to decarbonise at pace starts on our cities’ streets” Laura Shoaf

For example, local authority supported bus miles (socially necessary services) have fallen from 243 million miles in 2010/11 to 103 million miles in 2019/20.

Both bus patronage and the size of bus networks are also likely to remain at levels well below what they were before the Covid-19 pandemic without extra funding.

Laura Shoaf, chair of the Urban Transport Group, said: “The UK’s ambition to decarbonise at pace starts on our cities’ streets: increasing the use of public transport, encouraging more walking and cycling, and shifting to decarbonised vehicle fleets.

Without greater spending on local transport, this ambition and the specific objectives of the Transport Decarbonisation Plan and national bus and active travel strategies - will not be achieved.

BRIGHTON’S RECYCLING GOAL

GTR is aiming to recycle 95% of station’s rubbish RECYCLING

SOLAR SYSTEM Stourton park and ride was officially opened last month by Rachel Maclean, minister for future of transport and environment. It is the third park and ride site in Leeds and is served by BYD ADL Enviro400EV buses every 10-15 minutes, operated by First West Yorkshire. The site boasts 45 solar panels that cover an area the size of 18 tennis courts and generate enough power for the entire site’s electrical needs via an innovative battery storage system. www.passengertransport.co.uk

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Govia Thameslink Railway strengthened its environmental credentials during National Recycling Week (September 20-26) with a new initiative in Brighton.

Aiming to deliver the highest recycling rate of any station on the rail network, GTR is aiming to increase Brighton station’s recycling rates to 95% from an average of 30% over the last year through a new Mobile Segregation Unit installed at Brighton station.

Prior to the pandemic, in an average year Brighton station produced 650

STAGECOACH’S ‘RACE TO ZERO’

GTR is aiming to recycle 95% of station’s rubbish TARGETS

Stagecoach has joined the United Nations-backed ‘Race to Zero’ initiative with a commitment to set stretching science-based carbon reduction targets.

Britain’s biggest bus and coach operator has joined the Business Ambition for 1.5°C campaign, the world’s largest and fastest-growing group of companies that are helping to halve global emissions by 2030.

The initiative aims provide a clearly defined pathway for companies to cut their greenhouse gas emissions in line with what is necessary to meet the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change.

Stagecoach has committed to the highest level of ambition in both the short and long-term by aligning its ambition with keeping global warming to 1.5°C and reaching science-based net-zero emissions by 2050. It will now submit its plans for independent ratification.

tonnes of rubbish (which is about 12% of GTR’s total waste). The new unit will segregate, wash, compact, bale, weigh and electronically tag all waste from Brighton station, as well as all Southern and Thameslink trains running to and from the city, in partnership with innovative sustainability start up, The Green Block.

Scheme aims to boost Brightoin recycling

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INNOVATION & TECHNOLOGY INTEGRATION

Left to right: Richard Falconer, managing director of Co-Wheels; Cllr Ged Bell; Martijn Gilbert, managing director of Go North East; Jamie Driscoll, North of Tyne mayor

Go North East and car club launch ‘Flexility’

New smartcard-based bus season ticket which enables holders to use a bus for their regular journeys and still have access to a car when required CAR CLUBS

Bus operator Go North East has teamed up with car club Co-Wheels to launch an innovative new flexible mobility solution in Newcastle which “blends the best bits of using both a bus and a car when you need them”.

‘Flexility’ is a new smartcardbased season ticket which enables participants to use a bus for their regular journeys and still have access to a car when needed, without the need to own one.

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and car club membership key.

The companies hope that the new product will make sustainable lifestyles easier, helping to ease congestion and improve air quality.

The car club offer sits on top of a Go North East bus season ticket on a smartcard that includes free car club membership, £30 driving credit and no monthly subscription fees.

Existing Go North East

smartcard holders can request a free upgrade to Flexility, and existing Co-Wheels subscribers are being offered a 15% discount on Go North East bus season tickets.

An easy-to-use online car club registration process checks driving licence eligibility and links the smartcard to a user’s account.

“The Flexility smartcard is something that we believe is a particularly good fit with the

“I’ve been car-free myself for over six months now and trialling the test version of Flexility on my bus pass” Martijn Gilbert, Go North East

emerging new norm changes to peoples travel patterns and examples of things like blended home-office working where full-time car ownership is now even less financially viable for many people,” said Martijn Gilbert, managing director of Go-Ahead-owned Go North East.

“Whilst not a completely new concept, the partnership between Go North East and Co-Wheels is a UK first and this latest generation offer gives an easy to use solution with a good coverage of cars and car sites available across Newcastle and Gateshead.

It also comes at a time when using a shared mobility platform is becoming more acceptable as people re-think their travel needs following the pandemic.

“We need to be open-minded to finding and embracing creative new solutions to society’s mobility needs. Supporting our work to improve bus services with a flexible blended solution that includes an affordable car option for the occasional, more bespoke, journeys that are sometimes less easy by public transport will help enable more car-free lifestyles.

“These are the sort of behaviour changes that will make a real difference to reducing congestion and improving air quality by making use of low carbon public transport a viable alternative for even more journeys.

“I’ve been car-free myself for over six months now and trialling the test version of Flexility on my bus pass. I can personally highly recommend it!”

Co-Wheels was set up by two like-minded Newcastle residents that felt very passionately about providing an environmentally friendly, socially just, communitybased alternative to car ownership. Since starting as a small pilot operation in the North East with just two cars in www.passengertransport.co.uk

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2008, Co-Wheels has become the UK’s largest community interest car club operator. It now operates pay-as-you go car clubs, pool car fleet management and franchise operations in over 60 towns and cities across the UK. Richard Falconer, managing director of Co-Wheels, said: “Flexility is the ideal solution for those who commute by bus but need a car for the occasional shopping trip or days out.

“You get the best of both worlds - cheap bus travel and access to a car when you need it without the expense of owning one. We have wanted a scheme like this for a long time as we know car club members make much more use of buses for their daily travel needs so the two work together perfectly.

“We are delighted to be teaming up with a forward-thinking company like Go North East and hope it will lead to much more joint working in future as we try to cut people’s travel costs and at the same time reduce CO2 to combat climate change, especially as most of our cars are hybrid or electric.”

Jamie Driscoll, North of Tyne mayor, added: “We need an integrated transport system. One which gives people the flexibility they need for work, education and leisure and at the same time is better for the environment.

“This new shared mobility solution, a collaboration between local businesses Go North East and Co-Wheels, is going in the right direction. It will make low carbon public transport a more attractive option for most journeys and reduce the need for car ownership. All of us will benefit from the likely improvement in air quality and reduced congestion on our roads ... The Flexility scheme will make it much easier for people in Newcastle and Gateshead to make green travel choices.” www.passengertransport.co.uk

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Go-Ahead promotes ‘smart mobility hubs’ Group collaborates with Arup to publish blueprint for hubs INTERCHANGES

Public transport operator Go-Ahead has teamed up with global engineering and consulting firm Arup to create a blueprint by better integrating public transport with walking, cycling, micromobility and digital services, enabling quick and easy connections between sustainable modes of transport.

Published last week the Future Mobility Hubs report presents a flexible framework for a network of interchanges that can be adapted to suit different cities, suburbs and rural areas across the UK. Passengers waiting for a bus could benefit from solar powered lighting and heating, cycle storage and hire, charging points, community gardens and even co-working spaces.

Mobility hubs could unlock opportunities for low-carbon journeys by better integrating different forms of transport, creating an attractive alternative to cars. Services tailored to each location would enhance existing infrastructure such as bus stops, railways stations and park and ride facilities with options ranging from cycle storage, e-bikes and EV charging to improved lighting, amenities and public realm.

The framework is published as local authorities work towards an October deadline for Bus Service Improvement Plans - which will be submitted to bid for a share of £3bn of funding provided under Bus Back Better - the government’s

national bus service strategy for England. A number of Go-Ahead Group’s operating companies have identified potential locations for mobility hubs in submissions to local authorities.

Mark Anderson, Go-Ahead’s interim customer and commercial director, said: “The on-board environment on buses has improved markedly with modern vehicles and better accessibility.

But our customers also want a more comfortable environment to wait for a bus, or to change between modes of transport.

“We’re setting out a vision of what bus stops and interchanges could look like in the future.

For the UK to meet its goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050, we need millions of people to switch from cars to public transport. We’ll only achieve that, as a country, if we think big, work

closely with local authorities and come up with ideas to make travelling as attractive as possible.”

Richard de Cani, Arup’s global planning lead, commented: “As people demand improved connectivity solutions and grapple with the impact that their choices have on climate change, this vision for mobility hubs sets out a high quality framework to spark fundamental change providing us with a sustainable alternative to shift our behaviour and support decarbonisation of the transport network.”

“Currently transport options in our towns and cities can be fragmented. Mobility hubs could combine services to provide more integrated and convenient journey choices while reducing the carbon impact and helping us achieve our net zero ambitions.”

“This vision for mobility hubs sets out a high quality framework to spark fundamental change”Richard de Cani, Arup Mobility hub visualisation

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COMMENT COP26

NORMAN BAKER

We need radical actions, not hot air

Lurid warnings and distant targets won’t avert climate change.

Transport is a key battleground and we desperately need a plan I don’t know about you, but I’m getting rather tired of high profile individuals issuing dire warnings about the state of the planet, when those same individuals are unwilling or unable to take meaningful actions themselves to address the issue.

Step forward John Kerry, the US special presidential envoy for climate, who has dramatically presented the run-up to the COP26 meeting in Glasgow as a countdown to save the world.

Last week he told the world that “scientists fear we’re reaching irreversible tipping points on ice melt, coral reef destruction and other areas. That should scare the hell out of folks.”

Indeed it should. Yet when Mr Kerry was interviewed on Radio 4’s Today programme earlier this year, he fell at the first fence when asked about the targets, or lack of them, to phase out polluting vehicles on US roads.

Step forward Prince Charles who set off round Europe to give a series of lurid lectures about the dangers of climate change. Rather than use scheduled flights, or even the train, he resorted, as he generally does, to a private jet. His carbon footprint for the trip to hardto-reach capitals like Berlin and Rome was 52.95 tonnes, five times what the average UK citizen emits in total in a year. But then Prince Charles famously complained about the lack of comfort in the first class cabin on British Airways planes. He should try economy!

And back home, he addressed an audience in Cambridge, pleading with them to save “this 16 | 1 October 2021 PT250p16-17.indd 16

poor old planet”. His message was somewhat undermined by the fact that he travelled to the city, which has an excellent train service, by helicopter. He says he uses public transport “where appropriate”, which appears to be almost never.

Step forward prime minister Boris Johnson who last week told the assembly of world leaders at the United Nations in New York that COP26 had to be a “turning point for humanity ... It is time for us to listen to the warnings of the scientists and to understand who we are and what we are doing.”

When challenged about climate sceptic comments he had made in the past, not least in his columns in The Daily Telegraph, he replied by saying that when the facts change, so does his view. Which is fair enough, except the facts haven’t changed.

As far back as 1989, Ed Davey and I co-wrote a long call for action on climate change and other environmental challenges entitled What Price Our Planet? which contained all the facts Johnson would have needed. Many, even in his own party, like John Gummer, have repeatedly warned of the dangers of climate change and called for action.

As recently as 2015, Johnson told

“There is a yawning chasm between the rhetoric and the reality”

The Telegraph readers that global leaders were “driven by a primitive fear that the present ambient warm weather is somehow caused by humanity; and that fear - as far as I understand the science - is equally without foundation.”

An admission from the prime minister that he was totally wrong, not to mention irresponsible, would not come amiss, though I fear we may wait a very long time for that.

Still, perhaps the fact that world leaders are now at least getting the rhetoric right may optimistically be seen as a precursor to real action. Because it is action we now need, not words.

At this juncture, it is particularly important for the UK to be seen to be delivering on the ground, given our role as host of COP26 which, yes, is indeed a key moment for the world. We need to demonstrate we are putting our own house in order if we want to occupy the moral high ground with any credibility.

The government has set stretching targets - for the end of sales of petrol and diesel vehicles, for reaching net zero - which are among the most ambitious in the world.

But again there is a yawning chasm between the rhetoric and the reality.

Johnson’s government is approaching the “turning point for humanity”, just a matter of weeks away, with a £27bn road building programme, a possible new coal mine in the north west, new oil and gas drilling near Shetland and a nod to airport expansion.

Furthermore, an analysis of the budget measures from March this year reveals that far more was spent on measures that will increase greenhouse gas emissions than on measures to tackle climate change.

This analysis by WWF found £40bn of spending that will worsen climate change, offset by just £14.5bn pointing in the opposite direction.

There are some simple steps that the Treasury could take, but has so far failed to do so. This includes ensuring tax breaks to encourage business investment have to meet a net zero test. At the moment, some of those breaks are being used to invest in fossil fuel schemes.

Johnson needs to deal with the huge issue of emissions from buildings and the need to promote a big increase in home insulation.

It is not right for protestors to block the M25, but in terms of their asks, they have a point.

I hope the government will listen and act, www.passengertransport.co.uk

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rather than simply passing yet more draconian laws to try to shut them up.

And of course, the Treasury, largely out of cowardice, has for over 10 years now failed to increase fuel duty, while allowing, even requiring, train and bus fares to rise. The entirely predictable consequence has been to encourage modal shift from public transport to private cars, the very opposite of what is needed if climate change is to be seriously tackled now.

For while carbon emissions from the energy sector have fallen impressively since 1990, those from transport have barely been dented.

Transport emissions now constitute the largest source of carbon emissions in this country.

My back channel intelligence sources suggest that the concentration from qualified pilot Grant Shapps at COP26 will be on electric cars and jet zero, that is to say electric planes. Public transport and active travel will barely get a look-in.

While it would indeed be very helpful to banish petrol, diesel and kerosene entirely as sources of fuel for cars and planes, this is not going to happen any time soon. It will take decades to transform the country’s vehicle fleet. And if people have worries about running out of charge on their car while driving up the motorway - and they do - imagine the worries about running out of battery power halfway across the Atlantic.

The budget and comprehensive spending review due at the end of October gives the chancellor the perfect opportunity to set the tone, to give a moral lead for others to follow.

So what should he do to send the right message on transport?

The central point from where to start from is to announce that he wants to see the price of transport linked to its environmental impact.

Radical but entirely logical.

It cannot be right that it is cheaper to fly from London to Glasgow than to take the train, when the train journey emits a mere fraction of the carbon from the equivalent plane trip.

He absolutely must resist the pressure from the likes of Ryanair to cut the already paltry Air Passenger Duty, which is in fact the only tax on air travel. There is no duty at all on kerosene.

He needs to freeze rail fares to encourage people back on to the trains, which is not just the right environmental move, but the right economic and social one too. www.passengertransport.co.uk

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Boris Johnson last week told the assembly of world leaders at the United Nations in New York that COP26 had to be a “turning point for humanity”

“My back channel intelligence sources suggest that the concentration from qualified pilot Grant Shapps at COP26 will be on electric cars and jet zero” The Treasury still seems to have the mindset that it can raise rail fares and people will continue to use the train with no drop off in the passenger numbers. An elementary understanding of the impact of price on consumer behaviour shows this assumption to be obviously shaky. Indeed, all the indications are that the last RPI+1 increase forced on the railway brought in very little extra money, so failing in income generation terms while sending out entirely the wrong signal.

In the past, the Treasury may have banked on a captive commuter market that had no choice but to stump up. But those days are gone, especially with the advent of home working, which another bit of government is actually encouraging and making easier.

Increasingly, rail travel growth will come from leisure trips which are by their very nature optional, and where the car or the plane is available as an alternative.

He must of course raise fuel duty and announce that in principle the government will introduce interurban road pricing as a nudge tool to get people out of cars and onto trains.

And of course he needs to cancel the vast bulk of the obscenity that is the £27bn road building programme.

So will we see this moral lead, this radical series of actions, this timetable for change?

We need to, but don’t hold your breath.

2050 targets are all very well, but what the government urgently needs to do now, and ahead of COP26, is to set out a clear plan with identified steps and a timetable for the actions it will take to get us to net zero.

If it does so, it will enter the Glasgow event with some real credibility and ability to apply real pressure to other countries. If instead we merely have lurid warnings in the abstract and far distant targets, then that is what will come back to us from other countries, like a pointless echo chamber.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Norman Baker served as transport minister from May 2010 until October 2013. He was Lib Dem MP for Lewes between 1997 and 2015.

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COMMENT DECARBONISATION

CLAIRE HAIGH

How can transport achieve net zero?

Today Greener Transport Solutions publishes a new report which calls for a national plan to deliver real and rapid behaviour change We are facing an existential crisis. The latest IPCC report has been described as a ‘code red for humanity’. We are seeing severe weather impacts in areas not previously thought of as high risk. Nowhere is safe.

Transport is the fastest growing source of global greenhouse gas emissions and the most polluting sector of the UK economy responsible for around a third of all emissions.

Today Greener Transport Solutions publishes A Manifesto for Decarbonising Transport. We welcome the target of phasing out sales of all new polluting road vehicles by 2040 and the Transport Decarbonisation Plan’s (TDP) vision for a cleaner, greener Britain. However, we believe urgent attention must be given to reducing the volume of traffic on our roads.

Transport emissions are only 3% lower than they were in 1990. The TDP continues the supply side and technology-led approach that has underpinned government policy for the past 30 years. But there are inherent limitations to a strategy that gives insufficient focus to consumer behaviour. People have driven more, and further, as the costs of running a car have fallen relative to public transport. Van traffic has risen exponentially as people have increasingly bought products online with the expectation of next day delivery.

A new approach is urgently needed: 60% of fuel supply and half of surface transport decarbonisation required by 2050 needs to have happened during this decade if we are to be on track for the net zero target.

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The exam question I began this project two years ago with a question: What would be a credible and politically deliverable framework for decarbonising transport, that will deliver the necessary reductions in the shortest time possible whilst mitigating any negative social impacts?

Since transport is a derived demand intricately bound up with every aspect of our lives, it quickly became apparent that developing a coherent strategy for decarbonising transport required us to consider its role within the wider economy. Depending on how quickly we could decarbonise the vehicle fleet, it was likely that at least some level of demand reduction would be necessary.

As important as the passenger or freight trips themselves are the reasons for those trips, and whether some of those trips could be reduced or switched to more sustainable modes.

I also began this investigation with an understanding of the wider impacts of mass transit through my previous work at Greener Journeys, which was a national campaign to encourage more sustainable travel. Making more efficient use of road space through greater use of mass transit seemed

“Transport emissions are only 3% lower than they were in 1990”

to me to be central not only to reducing pollution and congestion but also to creating the conditions for sustainable and inclusive growth and a fairer and more equitable society.

A double decker bus can take 75 cars off the road. A 10% improvement to public transport accessibility is associated with a 3.6% reduction in social deprivation.

When the facts change…

The launch of the consultation phase of this project coincided with the start of the pandemic. Our first national workshop took place in March 2020, just before the first national lockdown. Many of the blog contributions we received in the months that followed focused on the need to “build back better” from the pandemic. Reducing the need for travel can assist in a green recovery, and increasing walking and cycling delivers health as well as decarbonisation benefits, so it was felt that we should lock in these changes. Public transport took a real battering, however, and many argued that a major national awareness campaign will be needed to reverse the stigma of the government’s ‘avoid public transport’ messaging once the pandemic is over.

Covid-19 accelerated many pre-existing trends, for example digitalisation had already increasingly been driving large parts of the economy. But it has also challenged many of our assumptions. It turned the greatest assets of our major cities, namely urban density and agglomeration effects, into instant liability overnight. The rise in house prices in less densely populated areas suggests a bucking of the pre-Covid trend of people swarming to city centres. It is too early to say how permanent some of these effects will be, and what the long terms impacts will be on public transport networks. However, we must avoid a car-led recovery if we are to tackle transport emissions in any serious way.

The second phase of the consultation began a year later with the publication in March 2021 of Rising to the Challenge: Achieving net zero will require new thinking, creative solutions and systemic change. The report proposed five themes: the need to take a whole systems approach, to give sufficient focus to behaviour change, to get the price signals right, to ensure a fair and just transition, and to strengthen devolution. These themes formed the basis of our recent webinars and a survey we ran through Transport Times. www.passengertransport.co.uk

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“It is also clear that there needs to be a greater focus at national level on behaviour change” What have we learnt?

Our research points to a consensus amongst transport and planning professionals that achieving net zero will require significant traffic reduction and that motoring taxation needs to be reformed as we transition from petrol and diesel vehicles. 89% of those surveyed agreed that the UK Government should commit and put in place policies to ensure a 20% reduction in car kilometres by 2030. 85% identified that the £40bn blackhole from the demise of Fuel Duty and Vehicle Excise Duty revenues made alternative funding through road pricing ‘inevitable’.

It is also clear that there needs to be a greater focus at national level on behaviour change. It is simply not tenable to expect a patchwork of several hundred local authorities to take responsibility for this scale of traffic reduction. 89% of respondents believe it would not be possible for local authorities to achieve their climate goals without clarity on how car users will pay for transport as we electrify the fleet. 83% believe central government should enable local areas to drive decarbonisaton through greater devolution and resources.

The devil is, of course, in the detail. As an immediate lever to pull, increasing fuel duty got strong support in the survey. However, whilst the freeze has increased traffic and carbon emissions it has been of benefit to low income households without adequate public transport provision and reliant on their (often older and more polluting) cars.

Moreover, low income households have effectively been priced out of the EV market.

It is by and large higher income households that can afford EVs and benefit from the dramatically reduced running costs (which risks increasing congestion). On top of all that, at a time of escalating gas prices, it’s easy to see that increasing fuel duty is a non-starter.

Making the same mistakes It was noted at one of the webinars, that Einstein’s definition of insanity is making the same mistake over and over again and expecting different results. Since 1990 we have been stuck in the same pattern, like a broken record, only ever making small incremental changes, with these changes then being undermined as vehicle efficiency gains have been eroded by the trend to larger vehicles and rising demand for car and van travel. www.passengertransport.co.uk

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Whilst clean vehicle technologies have progressed to the point that net zero is achievable, eventually, a sharp reduction in vehicle mileage is unavoidable if we are to decarbonise in time. But car dependency has been built into our lives since the 1950s.

It is not surprising that policy has been underpinned by an assumption that we can continue our existing lifestyles with cleaner technologies - a message echoed in the foreword to the TDP. So how do we break out of this unproductive pattern?

The key objective has been to develop a credible and politically deliverable framework for decarbonising transport. I began this journey with the conviction that it would indeed be possible to develop such a framework. However, it is clear that there are no easy and painless solutions. I am more convinced than ever of the need for a whole economy system-wide approach. We have to connect with the root cause of the problem, which is fundamentally about us using too much energy and the price of fossil fuels that produce that energy. A central problem is that carbon is not priced properly.

OUR SURVEY A survey of 260 Transport Times readers was conducted between August 17 and September 15, 2021, on what it would take to decarbonise transport.

Key findings include:

92%

agreed that the need for travel should be reduced by investing in digital connectivity, alongside sustainable transport, with 64% strongly agreeing.

89%

agreed that the UK Government should commit and put in place policies to ensure a reduction in car kilometres travelled of 20% by 2030.

85%

agreed that the £40bn black hole from the demise of fuel duty and Vehicle Excise Duty revenues made alternative funding via road pricing ‘inevitable’.

81%

believe that a national road charging scheme is the only way to manage road mileage demand with over half (53%) strongly agreeing.

There is a solution The urgency of the situation requires us to look for new big ideas, beyond the usual range of policy tools. To quote Einstein again, we cannot solve our most difficult and intractable problems from the same mindset that created them in the first place.

So, I invite you for a moment to suspend disbelief. Government could introduce a Climate Change Allowance, funded by putting a carbon price on everything we consume.

This would be a fixed allowance paid to each individual. If we price properly for carbon this is likely to be a substantial sum, so as a percentage of people’s income it would be a highly progressive measure. Low income households, who overall consume less carbon than higher income households, would be better off.

This would achieve net zero and level up the country at one stroke.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Claire Haigh is founder and CEO of Greener Transport Solutions, a not for profit organisation dedicated to the decarbonisation of transport

89%

say it won’t be possible for local authorities to achieve their climate goals without clarity on how car users will pay for transport as we shift away from petrol and diesel cars.

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COMMENT BRANDING

ALEX WARNER

Branding must not suffer during hiatus

GB Railways may be two or three years away but it’s coming so many TOCs have given up on their brand. This should worry us all I’ve been living the dream this last month and have travelled on every TOC in the UK. The experience has been variable, but the pluses have outnumbered the weaknesses.

Staff attitude and helpfulness has been very good - with some outstanding interactions, most notably with ticket office employees at SWR, on-board folk on Avanti West Coast and ScotRail and gateline folk at Chiltern.

Cleanliness has been impressive too - arise Cross Country Trains and Arriva Rail London. Despite my complaining that performance has been going down the pan nationwide (the stats don’t lie), I’ve only been delayed once and that was due to ‘external factors’ (trespass at Kingston).

However, it has not been a romantic dream I’ve been living, nor one that has created a great sense of adventure, even if I’ve travelled to the extremities - Penzance and Inverness, featuring among more unremarkable destinations, such as Brondesbury and Willesden Junction, Burley Park and Leeds.

What I have sampled is the hybrid situation from a customer perspective of a privatised railway and national set-up under GB Railways and it’s been moribund and frayed round the edges, not necessarily in terms of delivery but as a branded experience.

I’m an unashamed brand groupie - continually seduced by powerful brands. Apart from the Addlestone Model Railway Shop, if it’s not part of a brand - I’m unnerved. My favourite Wimpy Bar in South Norwood turned into an unbranded family-owned burger bar overnight.

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It served exactly the same nosh, from the same friendly staff, but I stopped going.

Psychologically, I had less confidence in the hygiene, the quality of food, the overall service and I found the new, unbranded décor less appealing. The moment the iconic red Wimpy tomato sauce container went, well I was done.

However, I can also see from a customer perspective that brand can be both a strength but also an irritation. I stood in Southampton last week and witnessed two very customer-focused bus companies, Bluestar and First go toe-to-toe on the same routes and I saw the irritation of first-time customers confused by the multitude of colour schemes, logos and branded ticket types - it felt pointless, in truth and a deterrent to travelling.

So, in the main, I’m not averse to the likely The BR logo would appear to resonate with Joe and Joanna Public

scenario of a national brand to cover the entire network once GBR is created. If we are being brutally honest, normal customers (ie., not us freaks who are fascinated by the industry and count it as a ‘hobby’), show only, at most, mild interest and curiosity in the different TOC brands and would probably prefer a single identity. The national marketing campaign and use of the BR logo would appear to resonate with Joe and Joanna Public. Conversations that I have with occasional rail customers consist of a few anodyne observations about their experience of the brand on each TOC (‘I like those red uniforms on, is it, LNER, Alex?’ or ‘those orange London Underground logos on trains to Chingford are funky’ and sometimes time warp confusion still persisting - (South West Trains, First Great Western, East Midlands Trains or Thameslink being the brand names that still roll off the tongue).

Then there’s those brands that are hard to understand because they are parent or sub-brands or have some other role in life Stansted Express, Gatwick Express, Arriva Rail London, GTR, Island Line. I couldn’t even tell you what the company that used to be Northern Railway is called these days, and as for how Transport for the North fits into that labyrinth, heaven help us! Similarly, it can be confusing sometimes to determine whether travelling by train in Liverpool is with Merseyrail or Merseytravel and if you’re talking West Midlands Railway, is it London Northwestern or West Midlands Trains or a mix of both? As for Transport for Wales, it’s challenging to know if they are an authority or train company or both and two decades on, I still don’t what know c2c stands for. Give me London, Tilbury and Southend (LTS) any day!

Finally, on my CV, I never know whether the strapline for my role in running the railway between London and Stansted in the early noughties should say West Anglia Great Northern (WAGN), Stansted Express or Londonlines, remember that?!

Okay, so hopefully I’ve made my point, it’s been a bit confusing and I’m quietly excited by a national identity. However, it is really important that this craving for uniformity doesn’t lead to tedium, the absence of character and an affinity with the local markets. If every train has the same logo and livery slapped on it, not only will it be dull for us trainspotters hanging round the end of platforms, but more www.passengertransport.co.uk

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“It is really important that this craving for uniformity doesn’t lead to tedium” importantly it will be the green light for those dullards in the sector who already love diluting the experience and individuality of the branded customer experience. They would love nothing better than to just run trains and not reflect on the complexities and sophistications of brand personality and the imperative of providing a compelling product that caresses customers.

Going back in time is not fashionable and can lead to careers being consigned to the sidings, the future is all about innovation after all (whatever that innovation might be). However, the resurrection of the double-arrow logo is a sign that maybe us old timers haven’t quite had our day, just yet, so forgive me as I hark back to a period when the balance between a clear, national brand with (in the main) uniformity of service provision and local character was perfectly struck. This was in the sectorisation era of the late 1980s and early 1990s and where there were five sectors but within them the opportunity for sub-brands, if these needed externalising to resonate with individual markets and showcase local leadership and management focus. Network South East had brands that represented the individual divisions with admittedly uninspiring names such as ‘North Downs’, ‘West of England’, ‘Solent and Wessex’ and my favourite, ‘Kent Link’.

Although in most cases creativity extended only as far as a logo or image characterising the local area served, it spoke volumes.

For me, it wasn’t too different from when First initially deviated from its traditional national brand and the words ‘First in West Yorkshire’ or ‘First in Glasgow’’ and so on emerged on buses alongside a small image that depicted the landscape. This may have been boring and overly cautious, but it was less confusing than the jarring, mass of colours that overwhelm sightlines across towns and cities and is the case on our railway.

Creation of sub-brands within an overall parent brand is a sensible solution in that it provides confidence for customers around a holistic, integrated proposition that will be harnessed seamlessly for their benefit - either in terms of ticketing and timetable connectivity and when things go wrong. Customers won’t be exposed to lines of demarcation between Network Rail and TOCs or between TOCs themselves. A national brand will importantly instil assurance around commonality of customer service standards and delivery. www.passengertransport.co.uk

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However, the existence of sub-brands, governed by the parent, should also unlock the ability of marketeers and local managers to create and deliver products and services that meet the quality criteria but reflect the needs of the communities served and the type of journey being embarked on, such as distance, stopping pattern and customer segments. It should also make it possible for local management teams to feel proud about their own distinct part of the railway. Brand is a strong, galvanising force for good - it is a showcase for the efforts of those responsible for its creation and delivery and it inspires a collective effort and attention to detail to maintain brand integrity.

Large, sometimes unwieldy and municipal organisations have a habit of struggling to provide a brand that maintains its shine over time and across all places it touches. In the case of my former employer Royal Mail, there was never pontification as to the brand personality and certainly, I don’t recall, employees ever benefiting from training around this key area.

However, that the brand still held its own was because it was over 500 years old and omnipresent on the landscape. Lifers in the company knew it had heritage and was iconic and sub-consciously respected it, even if they didn’t really know what it stood for and how to eschew its personality (if indeed it had one!).

GB Railways will be a huge organisation, but it won’t benefit, as Royal Mail did, from longevity as a tool to ensuring its brand is protected wherever it is being delivered.

We’re already, though, experiencing a ‘dumbing down’. The local TOC teams know their game is up, they’ve admitted defeat in terms of being able to shape their own destiny not only as businesses but in creating their own brand and unique service experience within the tightly constrained contractual parameters they operate currently, and which will be gripped even harder going forward. When did a TOC last embark on creating a brand strategy?

It just doesn’t happen anymore, which is why talented marketing professionals from outside the sector aren’t exactly clamouring to come and join the snooze-fest in the commercial world of train operators right now.

The slow, lingering and unstoppable death of the on-board catering experience is the epitome of the current situation we find ourselves in, so too the gradual decline in images on stations of community involvement

or of ‘newsletters’ either online or in print from TOCs with a front-page message from the MD. Indeed, whilst we are on the subject of the gaffers, during my travels on every TOC, I’ve not stumbled across a single manager anywhere, of any level whatsoever. Maybe they are drained by it all and resigned to their fate?

The future GBR brand needs careful thought and not just a colour scheme and logo.

We have a blank sheet of paper currently, but most importantly we need to put the right plans in place - in terms of a brand strategy.

Determining what sub-brands will be created, if any, is a key initial task, but so too is the brand personality, values and behaviours and how these will be lived and breathed by all employees, and not just those on the frontline. A year ago, I embarked on a review of customer service across a large chunk of the UK rail network and when I asked for brand guidelines, all I received were pictures of the logo with lots of different font sizes, typesets and colour schemes. I asked for the brand psychology, the engagement documentation, the values and so on. My request was met with total silence. None of this existed.

We simply must get it right this time round and it’s important that in developing the brand and determining how it will be rolled out, we talk to the markets locally - to customers and importantly non-users, to understand how we get them onboard. We need to massively engage proper old school and new age railway employees, and, as unfashionable as that might seem, they reside in the communities they serve and are the eyes and ears of both the customer and the rail heathens.

There’s so much to be done but it’s a wonderful opportunity. I worry that GB Railways may be two or three years away in reality and we can’t allow this drift in terms of brand, character and service style to go on much longer. It’s soul-sapping and has allowed mindless mediocrity to pervade customers are a scarcer commodity than ever before and they won’t allow us to sleepwalk through the motions much longer.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Alex Warner has over 28 years’ experience in the transport sector, having held senior roles on a multi-modal basis across the sector

1 October 2021 | 21

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COMMENT TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR

NICK RICHARDSON

uncertainties now than ever before. Even if everything were to return to pre-pandemic levels, there is a big hole in the data which might mean reverting to older data which then stretches the DfT requirement for modelling inputs to be no more than six years old.

Not travelling to work

Are we seeing the death of rush hour?

Post-pandemic travel behaviour suggests that the morning peak is not what it used to be. Will this be a long term trend?

As we are acutely aware, Covid-19 has had a devastating effect on travel, with the number of train and bus users creeping up slowly following a steep decline but not regaining the heights experienced pre-pandemic. The question now is whether that disruption to established trends will continue and whether or not the peak period as we know it has been consigned to history.

If travel restrictions are imposed, then passenger transport may take a disproportionate hit if people have a choice between using the bus, train, tram or car.

This results from a shift in favour of car use for a variety of reasons focusing on health fears being mitigated by travelling alone and by government telling people not to use public transport. This new prejudice against travelling collectively may stick because the perception of mass transit as a hotbed of disease transmission is a powerful one.

Apparently there are now more injuries on escalators because people won’t hold the handrail for fear of catching something. The fact that these fears are unfounded doesn’t seem to have made much difference despite the best efforts of transport operators in declaring their hygiene credentials.

When is the peak?

The reason a shift away from rush hour matters is because the peak period has always been the baseline against which any transport proposition is measured. Roads are built for 22 | 1 October 2021 PT250p22-23.indd 22

peak demand but many are actually lightly used for much of the time. Rail networks build up rolling stock to squeeze as much capacity into the infrastructure constraints as possible for the busy peak periods. Without the traditional rush hour, modelling and forecasting demand is left with a problem.

In most circumstances, an evening peak reflects the morning peak because it is linked to work patterns which we know have changed. Usually, an evening peak is spread more than the morning peak because people have more flexibility about when they leave work compared with fixed start times or undertake linked trips such as shopping or leisure activities between work and home.

Also, journeys to school/college in the morning compound competing demands for space.

Now we have examples where the evening peak is more intensive than the morning peak.

If this is to become the norm, then modelling becomes rather more difficult because there are more scenarios to consider. This adds to the problems of demand forecasting - never an exact science - because there are more

“There are now more injuries on escalators because people won’t hold the handrail for fear of catching something”

We know that employment patterns have changed in both spatial and temporal ways.

Some people don’t commute at all anymore because their job has disappeared or has changed. Others commute sometimes rather than daily and the supply of office space is being reassessed in that not everyone needs to be in one building at the same time. Working at home requires reliable communications so we have a situation in which information technology is likely to be more important than commuting. The response by train operators appears to be reconstructing the timetable for lower peak demand. In many ways, this overcomes the fragility of the timetable when something goes wrong and everything falls apart; operating at 100% of route capacity is not ideal for services or infrastructure.

However, this could create a scenario in which congested trains are still widespread because capacity is reduced proportionately to the number of peak users. Our intolerance of overcrowding isn’t going to go away. In the shorter term, this leaves more trains than are needed to provide the service that still costs money to maintain and keep somewhere until the next round of renewals and cascading.

Here the time lag between matching capacity with demand on the railway isn’t helpful.

Having systematically aimed to increase capacity over recent years, perhaps we don’t need it after all. However, experience suggests that dramatic cuts to capacity such as singling double track railways was not a good idea and we are left with some constrained routes that don’t fulfil their role to the full. Spare capacity is likely to be useful in future but finding the right balance between supply and demand continues to be elusive.

Some opportunities then emerge. The interpeak market can be expected to attract more workers who can get to work later and therefore at a lower cost. The loss of commuter revenue is going to be a big problem because it is this that offsets the offpeak provision. For bus services, the impact might www.passengertransport.co.uk

29/09/2021 17:45

IN ASSOCIATION WITH: www.ciltuk.org.uk Tel: 01536 740100 @ciltuk

be less severe because there is an influx of new buses promised by the national bus strategy for England and its Scottish and Welsh equivalents which will reduce the overall age of buses across all fleets and therefore improve the quality of the bus offer overall. This raises a different problem though - driver shortages.

With more buses and more services, thousands of extra people will be needed to drive them.

Attracting more users may be a struggle though, despite better vehicles, because a whole lot more is needed. There is scope to develop the offpeak market with renewed emphasis on leisure travel ie. discretionary journeys rather than commuting.

Forecasting Regarding how we define the capacity needed, perhaps we no longer plan for a peak hour and instead take offpeak as our baseline, suitably factored to cover busier periods. This shakes up the accepted practice of modelling which may have to offer a wider range of outputs from which to select the most likely.

The whole problem of uncertainty requires fresh approaches. Traditionally, models inform potential outcomes but now it seems that trying to predict travel behaviour in an uncertain world has to be more scenario-based to factor in the biggest unknowns. This has a convenient parallel in policy: the wellestablished ‘predict and provide’ approach needs to stop - it lingers on with some who believe that economic outcomes override all others - in favour of a shift to ‘decide and provide’. The latter more satisfactorily brings together the key transport enablers of infrastructure and travel behaviour. Constant attention on building things is an obsession for some who really don’t understand that while it brings capacity, it may also create bigger problems later on.

Exemplifying this is the road building programme which enables more journeys to be made but ultimately creates more congestion than there was before. No doubt you will be mindful of situations in which a new bypass, distributor road or relief road (lovely antiquated epithets) are heralded as a means of decongesting other roads which over time become as busy as they were before.

Hence creating more road capacity ends up creating more traffic so the original problem is magnified. Then come the cries for a www.passengertransport.co.uk

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Without the traditional rush hour, modelling and forecasting demand is left with a problem

bypass for the bypass until everywhere is covered in concrete.

More enlightened thinking reveals that working within our constraints (with selected physical interventions) may generate appropriate and more immediate solutions.

The theory is that the balance between car driving and rail use is a function of congestion in that if roads become too congested, then those with the option can use the train instead. When this become intolerable through overcrowding, high cost or poor reliability then there is a shift back to car.

So the pendulum swings. Add in a pandemic and we seem to be on the rebound that looks forward to more road congestion before passenger transport can recover. Arguably then, now is the time to be creating more capacity in passenger transport systems in anticipation of this bounce-back. In this, the role of government is a key determinant but instead of providing long-term vision, we get

the politics of uncertainty, iterating between what will please the voters and what is rational.

Oddly, this resonates with some who campaign for new infrastructure but don’t want anything that affects them personally (NIMBYism is alive and kicking) and think that changes in travel behaviour are for everyone else.

Whether or not rush hour is dead, we need to re-think how we plan our transport capacity to be more effective and efficient with less emphasis on peaks and greater emphasis on what happens the rest of the time.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Nick Richardson is Technical Principal at transport consultancy Mott MacDonald, a Director of the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport (UK) and Chair of PTRC Education and Research Services Ltd. In addition, he has held a PCV licence for over 30 years.

1 October 2021 | 23

29/09/2021 17:45

COMMENT

WANT TO KNOW MORE? Visit Portland’s fuel forum page: portland-analytics.co.uk/fuel-forum

OIL MARKET REPORT

£

PORTLAND FUEL ANALYTICS - OCTOBER 2021

Oil prices and a tale of two hurricanes

Hurricane Ida hit the US Gulf Coast 16 years after Hurricane Katrina struck the same area - but the impact was very different You wait ages for an energy story to come along and then three come at once! This month, we’ve had a hurricane that hit US oil heartlands, James Spencer UK gas companies going Portland under and a tanker driver shortage. On the basis that both the latter situations are “still in play”, this month we’ll look at the impact of Hurricane Ida. Atlantic Hurricane Ida hit the US Gulf Coast almost 16 years to the day that Hurricane Katrina struck the same parts of Louisiana and New Orleans in 2005. Because of the similarities in timing, there were immediate comparisons between the two and certainly both caused loss of life and enormous structural damage. In oil terms, huge swathes of offshore and onshore production were taken out of action. Yet when it came to oil prices, there were no similarities, with oil markets in September 2005 behaving in an entirely different way to September 2021.

In 2005, Hurricane Katrina brought the US oil industry to its knees, with 30 oil platforms and nine refineries impaired, destroyed or shutdown. A full 25% of total US production was “shut in”, along with 20% of gas production. Sadly, there was also considerable environmental damage, with some refinery tanks actually floating off their foundations due to flooding. Over 25 million litres of oil were spilt in the immediate aftermath of Katrina.

The impact on fuel prices in September 24 | 1 October 2021 PT250p24-25.indd 24

2005 was huge. The wholesale price of gasoline went up by almost 30% overnight. On US forecourts, the increases were much more severe with rises of up to $4 per gallon. These rapid and unprecedented price rises stimulated a very rare event indeed, with the US Government and International Energy Agency combining for only the second time in history (the first coincided with the First Gulf War) to make a release of both the global emergency oil reserve and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Around 60 million barrels of crude and refined oil (which equated to five days of US consumption) were allowed to “flood” the markets (apologies!) and this had the desired effect, with fuel prices very soon equalising back down to pre-Katrina levels.

This month’s Hurricane Ida initially looked like it might cause a similar amount of chaos.

150mph winds battered the Gulf Coast and nearly all production facilities were shutdown, along with the same nine refineries of 2005.

Power cuts across the region meant not only did over a million people have no electricity, but industrial output also ground to a halt.

Despite all this, oil prices in September were almost boring in comparison to September 2005. There were no great price movements

“There were no great price movements in either direction”

in either direction and the restrained response of the US Petroleum Reserve was to make a “mini-release” of two million barrels (whilst the IEA remained completely on the sidelines). Those market observers who had predicted the worst when Hurricane Ida hit, were soon scratching their heads.

The first obvious answer is that many Gulf Coast refineries found themselves just outside the hurricane’s path, meaning that only a precautionary shut-down was required. Equally many oil platforms and refineries shut down in advance of the hurricane (rather than being hit mid-production) and all of them had worked on engineering and operational resilience in the years between Katrina and Ida. This structural reinforcing of engineering apparatus was also evident when it came to much of Louisiana’s state infrastructure. For example, none of the state’s flood levees were breached.

Nonetheless, to remove so much oil production from US markets and see barely a ripple of price movement is surprising and says much about the increasing diversity of the US supply chain. The proliferation of shale over the last 10 years (an industry that didn’t exist in 2005) has broadened the base of US oil production, whilst refineries in Texas, New Mexico and the Mid-West have reduced the previous refining domination of the US Gulf Coast. It is also worth noting that oil-fired power stations in the US South are now a thing of the past (not the case in 2005), an element of commercial transport (including rail) is now powered by natural gas and today, 10% of American gasoline is ethanol. Although difficult to quantify, these factors highlight that production pressures on neat crude and refined products have shifted since 2005.

Oil prices could, of course, still head northwards, particularly if the long-term effects of the hurricane hamper production recovery. Even as we write this report, almost half of US Gulf capacity remains offline and analysts are predicting a total reduction in production of around 500,000 barrels per day for September. That coincidentally (ha-ha!) is the exact same amount that OPEC announced they would release into global markets in the aftermath of Ida. This was done under the guise of protecting the market from price spikes, but of course we all know that it was a swift and opportunist move to steal market share from crippled US operators! www.passengertransport.co.uk

29/09/2021 18:09

“I suspect we may see more ownership changes to come”

COMMENT

GREAT MINSTER GRUMBLES

NEG’s Stagecoach move is a brave one

Our Whitehall insider imagines what’s going on inside the minds of the mandarins at Great Minster House, home of the DfT

It was, I guess, only a matter of time. The pandemic and the consequential collapse in patronage for both bus and rail operators saw the share price of private operators crash through the floor. An acquisition, or merger, of one or more of the “big five” seemed to me to be pretty much inevitable and so it has come to pass with National Express moving to acquire Stagecoach. It’s the end of an era.

Stagecoach once bestrode the UK public transport sector and also enjoyed a presence in a number of overseas markets. Today, a shadow of its former self, it has a market value less than £400m. It’s been out of the rail market for a while now following the collapse of its East Coast franchise, and with the bus market now effectively re-regulated something was bound to give at some point.

But with National Express also having exited the UK rail market sometime ago, it feels to me that its move on Stagecoach is a brave one. Bus patronage is still some 35% below pre-pandemic levels and with bus operators no longer the masters of their own destiny this feels to me like something of a gamble. Of course, for National Express this is something of a reversal of fortunes. A decade or so ago it was stripped of the East Coast franchise and was itself subject to a takeover bid by Stagecoach - unsuccessful as it happens. Now the hunted is the hunter.

With the UK public transport industry in the doldrums from a patronage perspective, and with both bus and rail now effectively renationalised and re-regulated I do wonder www.passengertransport.co.uk

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how attractive the UK really is to the likes of FirstGroup, Arriva, Go-Ahead and, indeed, National Express. If I was a shareholder in any of these companies I think I would be seriously thinking about selling up, and if patronage remains depressed for the foreseeable future I suspect we may see more ownership changes to come.

Our secretary of state, Grant Shapps, has us believe that his rail reforms will attract lots of interest from private sector bidders for rail franchises. I wonder. With rail franchising moving on to, effectively, management contracts and with profit margins constrained I am really struggling to see why the UK rail franchise market would hold much attraction to private businesses. We shall see.

Of course, the bill to put effect to the rail reforms won’t be introduced into parliament until 2023, or so I’m told, so we will remain in something of an interregnum with rail policy for a while yet. And if some of the political speculation following the reshuffle is correct, we may well have an early general election in early summer 2023 anyway.

I reckon Grant Shapps is hoping there will be, as having failed to get moved and promoted in the recent reshuffle he will surely be given a new cabinet position if the Conservatives are returned to power.

He put a brave face on not being promoted when the prime minister carried out the reshuffle, and my prediction that he would be proved wide of the mark. In many ways I’m rather pleased he is staying put, as are most of our junior ministers, as at least we don’t have to waste time briefing a new team. But there’s another reason why I’m rather pleased. I’ve said before that when ministers are moved on it means they escape being held to account for their policies when they go wrong or don’t deliver on the promises made. At least Grant Shapps is now going to have to stand up and explain, when we have assessed all the Bus Service Improvement Plans required under England’s bus strategy, and handed out the funding available, that this funding is inadequate and the bus strategy’s aspirations and ambitions can’t be delivered.

He may escape any accountability for his rail white paper though, as by the time this is fully implemented and the trains still aren’t consistently running on time and service levels have been cut to reflect the new “normal” of reduced demand, we may well have had that general election and he will no longer be secretary of state for transport. But at least there will be some justice if he has to account for a failed bus strategy.

But I’ll end on the Stagecoach news as this really is the end of an era. It seems that Sir Brian Souter’s stellar career in the UK public transport industry is finally coming to a close.

Stagecoach’s co-founder and former chief executive (and still a major shareholder) was one of the industry’s leading entrepreneurs and innovators, if not the leading figure in the industry for many, many years. As the government moves to renationalise and re-regulate public transport the timing of his departure is symbolic indeed.

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CAREERS

Scheduler of the Year Award judges named Four-strong judging panel, including previous winner, will decide winner of the 2021 Joe Wood Scheduler of the Year, sponsored by CitySwift SCHEDULING

The winner of last year’s inaugural Joe Wood Scheduler of the Year Award is among the judges for the 2021 prize.

Trentbarton’s Richard Sherratt, who was named as the first ever Joe Wood Scheduler of the Year last November, joins a four-strong panel of judges.

The award was launched by Passenger Transport and CitySwift, the specialist data engine that uses AI to improve bus network reliability and efficiency, to boost recognition of schedulers and their important role.

The award is a tribute to Joe Wood, a widely respected young bus manager who died in 2019. Joe had worked in scheduling roles at Go-Ahead, Stagecoach and Reading Buses before joining CitySwift’s fast-expanding team.

He posthumously received the President’s Award at the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport’s Annual Awards for Excellence.

Joining Sherratt on the judging panel are Blackpool Transport managing director Jane Cole (who is also president of the Confederation of Passenger Transport), Go North East managing director Martijn Gilbert and Andrew Garnett, deputy editor of Passenger Transport.

After winning the prize last year, Sherratt said: “It’s nice to be recognised as the industry does not always appreciate the work that goes into getting the services ready and the bus to the bus stop.”

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Sherratt, who has been in the industry for over 40 years after joining straight from school, said that 2020 had been very different from a scheduling point of view as a result of the pandemic.

“We had to cope with changes seemingly every week early in the first lockdown,” he said. “But it’s just one of those challenges; the work has to be done. The art of being a good scheduler is to go unnoticed. Like any job the trick is making the hard things look easy.”

The 2021 Joe Wood Scheduler of the Year competition was launched last month, providing a further opportunity to raise awareness of the work that is done by schedulers and celebrate leaders in the field.

Commenting on the judges, CitySwift COO Alan Farrelly said: “We are very pleased to have brought together such an expert panel of judges. They know and

understand what being a good scheduler is all about. They also understand the vital - but often unseen - role that these individuals play within companies.

They can be the difference between success and failure.”

He continued: “We are also delighted that Richard has agreed to help judge the awards. He was a very worthy winner in 2020 and we think it’s great to have someone who is doing the job and excelling at it - on the panel.”

Join us in Galway!

Nominations are now open for The Joe Wood Scheduler of the Year Award 2021 and the deadline for entries is October 8.

Details of how to apply can be found in the adjacent column.

Finalists will receive an allexpenses-paid trip to Galway, Ireland, for the award ceremony in November.

Trentbarton’s Richard Sherratt

“The art of being a good scheduler is to go unnoticed. Like any job the trick is making the hard things look easy” Richard Sherratt, winner in 2020

ENTER NOW! HOW TO ENTER Entries should be submitted in the following format: A. Case study of a new schedule (max 100 words) 1. How did the scheduler approach the project?

2. How did they increase reliability and efficiency (and by how much)?

B. Innovation in scheduling (max 100 words) 1. How does the scheduler’s methodology differ from standard scheduling practices?

2. How do they combine ‘traditional’ scheduling skills and knowledge with ‘modern’ technology and data?

C. The Covid experience (max 100 words) 1. How did the scheduler adapt their schedules during lockdown to allow for reduced patronage, reduced congestion, social distancing and the travel needs of healthcare and key workers?

2. What changes are they making to ensure schedules fit new travel patterns and changes in passenger demand as we emerge from the pandemic?

D. Contribution to the wider business (max 100 words) 1. What impact does the scheduler have on the wider business?

2. Are they capable of mentoring and training the next generation of scheduler?

E. Why does the scheduler deserve to be Scheduler of the Year? (max 50 words) 1. Why does the scheduler deserve to be Scheduler of the Year?

EMAIL US Email your entries to editorial@passengertransport. co.uk - no later than October 8.

For enquiries, email the same address or call 020 3950 8000.

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29/09/2021 17:39

CALL NOW TO ADVERTISE 020 3950 8000 or email sales@passengertransport.co.uk

Group aiming for inclusivity Stagecoach highlights new targets for diversity and inclusion as part of National Inclusion Week DIVERSITY

Stagecoach marked National Inclusion Week by highlighting diversity and inclusion targets that aim to boost the number of females within its leadership team and create a more ethnically diverse workforce.

The new commitments come as part of the company’s recently published sustainability strategy (PT248), targeting 40% of females in leadership roles and ensuring that 25% of the wider workforce is made up of ethnic minorities by 2026. It aims to build on previous initiatives - the group has been supporting National Inclusion Week since 2016. It has also been making meaningful progress across the diversity and inclusion agenda since the launch of its Inclusion Pledge in 2019.

To support these targets, Stagecoach has this year launched six new employee led diversity and inclusion networks across the UK, enabling colleagues to come Stagecoach is targeting 40% of females in leadership roles by 2026

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together as one voice to create change, raise awareness, help influence business decisions and introduce new ways of making the group stronger.

Stagecoach has also invested in additional resources to support its inclusion goals. Stuart Beard, a former driver at Stagecoach Manchester’s Hyde Road depot, has recently taken up the newly created position of diversity and inclusion assistant. Meanwhile, the group has also teamed up with Women in Hospitality, Travel and Leisure as part of its commitments.

“We’re proud of the steps we have taken so far in creating an inclusive company that welcomes talented people, helping them to develop and to be the best they can be, whoever they are and wherever they’re from,” said Clare Burles, Stagecoach’s people director. “Whilst we have made some good progress, we know that there is still work to do. The new targets we have set as part of our sustainability strategy will help to make sure that we continue on this positive journey and play our part in helping to transform diversity in the transport sector.”

“Initiatives such as the new employee networks and the creation of a new dedicated role for diversity and inclusion demonstrate a major step forward, and will help to ensure we can continue to recognise and celebrate everyone’s differences, and create an even better place to work”.

APPOINTMENTS NITHC Northern Ireland’s infrastructure minister, Nichola Mallon, has announced the appointment of five non-executive members to the board of the Northern Ireland Transport Holding Company (NITHC), the parent company of state-owned transport operator Translink. It will see Tzvetelina Bogoina-Seenan, Marie Mallon, Mike Brown, Sharon O’Connor and Ed Wills appointed to the board to serve first terms.

Brown (pictured) was latterly London’s transport commissioner and he is currently chair of the delivery authority tasked with managing the restoration and renewal of the Houses of Parliament in London.

Bogoina-Seenan has governance, commercial and financial experience developing major infrastructure, regeneration and property investment projects in UK and Ireland. She is a committee member of a housing association and a board director of a Business Improvement District.

Mallon has a public service background as a former deputy chief executive and director of HR of the Belfast HSC Trust. She is an associate of the HSC Leadership Centre and a member of the NIAO Advisory Board, O’Connor is a Fellow and chartered director of the Institute of Directors with senior leadership experience. She was the former chair of the Education Authority and former chief executive of Derry City Council.

Wills is the former managing director of Go-Ahead Ireland and was recently appointed MD of Go-Ahead’s Brighton & Hove and Metrobus operations (PT249).

HS2 Transport secretary Grant Shapps has appointed former Labour transport minister Tom Harris as a non-executive director of HS2 Ltd. Harris (pictured) has been appointed for a three-year term following an open and fair competition. He has been appointed as a community engagement leader to strengthen the company’s focus on community engagement, further ensuring that those impacted by HS2 continue to be listened to and treated with respect.

Harris was MP for Glasgow South, formerly Glasgow Cathcart, from 2001 to 2015.

HULL TRAINS FirstGroup has announced the appointment of David Gibson as managing director of open access train operator Hull Trains.

Gibson (pictured) joined the business this week and succeeds Louise Cheeseman who left the train operator earlier this year to join Transport for London as director of buses (PT246).

Gibson has a varied background.

After leaving the Royal Air Force in 2003, he joined Hull City Council as assistant chief executive where he helped lead the council’s transformation to most improved council of the year. He later moved to Capita’s consulting and transformation division, as a director in the programme and project management practice.

His most recent roles include managing director for DB Regio Tyne & Wear and service delivery director for state-owned ferry operator Caledonian MacBrayne.

1 October 2021 | 27

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DIVERSIONS

Greater Anglia’s more film set than train set

backdrop.

Since 2018, the train operator has employed Adrian Booth to act as a commercial film liaison manager.

The company was getting regular requests from film-makers to use

Greater Anglia locations, but was turning them down as there was no-one who could join the dots and make it all happen.

Since taking on the role, Adrian has worked on six films, 20 TV dramas, 12 adverts, numerous corporate videos, entertainment and documentary TV shows, short self-funding films and one fashion shoot at Greater Anglia locations.

He takes initial calls, explores how requests can be facilitated and liaises with different departments across Greater Anglia – finally accompanying all filming.

So what does he think of his job?

“It’s something interesting and different,” Adrian casually notes.

Created by John Doubleday and first unveiled in the city in May 1982, the statue was presented by the Bristol and West Building Society. It was moved from its original site at Broad Quay in 2006, the bicentenary of Brunel’s birth, to Temple Quay.

Not only is the statue now fittingly located outside Brunel’s iconic station building at Bristol Temple Meads, but it is bookended by another statue of Brunel, by the same artist, located at London Paddington station at the Eastern end of his great railway.

In 1833 Brunel was appointed GWR’s chief engineer and began work on the line that would link Bristol with London. In addition to viaducts at Hanwell and Chippenham, the Maidenhead Bridge and the Box Tunnel, Bristol Temple Meads station was among his most impressive achievements.

“We are delighted to have rehomed the statue of Mr Brunel to the location of one his finest accomplishments, Bristol Temple Meads station,” said Andy Phillips, the station manager.

Train operator’s sideline in the movie industry What do Killing Eve, Breeders, I Hate Suzi and the film Yesterday all have in common? No, they haven’t all been festing on your Netflix watchlist for the last six months, the answer is they were all filmed on location at Greater Anglia stations or on their trains.

They are among an increasing number of films, TV dramas and documentaries, adverts and even fashion shoots which use the railway in East Anglia as a suitable

Brunel bookends

FITTING HOME FOR BRUNEL STATUE

A statue of Isambard Kingdom Brunel has been unveiled at its new home outside the Passenger Shed at Bristol Temple Meads station.

Lights!

Camera!

Traction!

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At least they give you a nice Citaro to drive

KEITH’S FIRST DAY ON THE BUSES “My first day as a bus driver did not go well,” wrote Keith Stuart. “I was already running eight minutes late, having caused considerable delay (and $712 of damage) by crashing into an ornamental pagoda.”

Luckily Keith is a video games correspondent with The Guardian and he was trying out Bus Simulator 21, a bus driver simulator game. So is it like real life? “All the interactions in the game are odd,” he said. “You have a business expert, who just stands outside the bus depot waiting to give you unsolicited advice on route planning.”

How life imitates art!

SEEN SOMETHING QUIRKY? Why not drop us a line at editorial@passengertransport.co.uk

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