Passenger Transport: January 28, 2022

FO EV RT ER NI Y GH T

ISSUE 257 28 JANUARY 2022

NEWS, VIEWS AND ANALYSIS FOR A SECTOR ON THE MOVE

Vere relaxed about bus strategy’s funding gap

There are widespread fears that England’s National Bus Strategy won’t live up to expectations, but transport minister Baroness Vere doesn’t share them With the prime minister battling to remain in Downing Street after successive waves of allegations, concerns are mounting over his National Bus Strategy for England.

Although championed by Boris Johnson when it was launched in March 2021, some fear that it may become another example of over-promising and under-delivering. The £1.2bn of funding made available to support improvements to local bus services falls far short of the £7bnplus requested by local authorities in the Bus Service Improvement Plans that the strategy demanded.

Transport minister Baroness Vere defended the strategy at the CPT’s UK Bus and Coach Conference 2022 this week. In response to a

question from Passenger Transport editor Robert Jack, who chaired the event, she said: “We asked local transport authorities to be ambitious, and lo and behold they were. We didn’t give them any guidance about how much money they should be planning for because we wanted them to think about, you know, if there were no restrictions what is the best you could possibly do for your area. So it’s of no surprise to me at all that they were very, very ambitious and

“I am content with where we are at the moment” Baroness Vere

that the total amount is necessarily far beyond what we are able to provide at this moment in time.

She added: “I am content with where we are at the moment.

We know how much money we’ve got from the spending review ... We’re about to invest £1.2bn which is a lot of money into all sorts of things that will really make a difference to passengers.”

Commenting on the quality of the BSIPs that were submitted by local authorities last October, she said: “We’ve had a huge number of hugely impressive, absolutely fantastic BSIPs, and we’ve had some others quite frankly that need work, big time.” Some will be asked to “have another go”.

FULL REPORT IN NEXT ISSUE

NEWS

Clyde Metro at top of Scottish projects list

06

Scottish Government publishes blueprint

ENVIRONMENT

130 electric buses on order for Coventry

12

All-Electric Bus City project takes shape

INSIDE TRACK

What do bus users want post-Covid?

14

Louise Coward looks at the research

COMMENT

Time is running out for public transport

16

Jonathan Bray fears a funding cliff-edge

COMMENT

Are timetable cuts temporary?

LITTLE LEAVES A LEGACY National Express Coventry bodymaker Dave Little (pictured right) is retiring after 49 years of service. Dave has passed on his expertise to son Chris (left) who also works as a bodymaker with the company

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18

Alex Warner believes trust is on the line

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CONTENTS

PASSENGER TRANSPORT PO Box 5496, Westbury BA13 9BX 020 3950 8000 editorial@passengertransport.co.uk

Modal shift is on the agenda - but don’t call it that!

“We want public transport and active travel to be the natural first choice for our daily activities.

An important aspect of reducing emissions from transport will be to use our cars less.” Those words came from transport secretary Grant Shapps and Robert Jack can be found in Decarbonising Transport, published Managing Editor by the Department for Transport in March 2020.

The question now is not whether we should have modal shift, it is what are we willing to do to achieve it. This week’s UK Bus & Coach Conference 2022, organised by the Confederation for Passenger Transport, offered some insights. Transport minister Baroness Vere said car constraint was about local needs, but she’s not in favour of a national target for reducing car use like the one that exists in Scotland (20% fewer kilometres by 2030). It’s not the business of government to tell people not to use their cars, she explained.

The conference also heard Huw Merriman, chair of the Transport Select Committee, express sympathy for the idea of road user pricing, a policy which his committee is now investigating. Shadow transport minister Sam Tarry was also sympathetic to the idea.

This could really drive modal shift towards public transport, without penalising motorists who have no viable alternative. But Roger Harrabin, the BBC’s energy and environment analyst, warned us not to use the term outside of the transport tent - it turns people off!

Whatever we call it, it’s essential that it remains on the agenda.

HAVE YOUR SAY Contact us with your news, views and opinion at: editorial@passengertransport.co.uk PASSENGER TRANSPORT editorial@passengertransport.co.uk forename.surname@ passengertransport.co.uk Telephone: 020 3950 8000 Managing Editor & Publisher Robert Jack Deputy Editor Andrew Garnett Contributing Writer Rhodri Clark Directors Chris Cheek, Andrew Garnett, Robert Jack, George Muir, John Nelson OFFICE CONTACT DETAILS Passenger Transport Publishing Ltd PO Box 5496, Westbury BA13 9BX, UNITED KINGDOM Telephone (all enquiries):

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address. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part without the publisher’s written permission.

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IN THIS ISSUE 04

QUARTER OF CARDIFF FLEET ZERO EMISSION

20

ACHIEVING CHANGE IN THE EAST OF ENGLAND

23

WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO OIL PRICES IN 2022?

24

CAN BORIS AND HIS BUS STRATEGY SURVIVE?

In one of the first major launch events since the onset of the pandemic, Cardiff Bus revealed its new fleet of 36 electric buses at a special event in the Welsh capital earlier this month. Their introduction follows a successful funding bid.

ORGANISATION

PAGE

Arriva Merseyside 9 Arriva The Shires & Essex 9 Cardiff Bus 10, 13 Coach and Bus Association Cymru 10 Cornwall Council 4 Costain Skanska 8 CPT Cymru 10 CPT UK 1 Crossrail Ltd 8 First South West 4 Glasgow City Council 6 Go-Ahead Group 13 Go Cornwall Bus 4 Great British Railways 7 Hopleys 4 HS2 Ltd 7 Hull Trains 7 London Underground 8 National Express Coventry 1, 12 National Express Group 9 Newport Transport 10 Nexus 7 Nottingham City Transport 4 OTS 4 Sargeants Brothers 5 Siemens 8 SPT 6 Stagecoach Group 9 Stagecoach South West 4 Transdev Blazefield 9 Transport for London 8 Transport for Wales 7 Transport Scotland 6 Travel Cornwall 4 Van Hool 13 West Yorkshire Combined Authority 5 Yeomans Travel 5 Zenobe 10, 13

TransportEast,a collective of local authorities, business and transport interests, has produced A 30-year transport strategy for the East. Will it deliver the transformation change the region clearly needs? Nick Richardson warns it may have a limited life.

Ongoing factors around declining investment in oil and gas coupled with buoyant demand growth around the world look set to push prices up.

“We easily see oil topping $100 per barrel in the next six months,” warns James Spencer.

Great Minster Grumbles: Our Whitehall insider imagines what’s going on inside the minds of the mandarins at Great Minster House, home of the DfT. “When did you last go to a ‘work’ event with 40 people where tables were laid out with booze and snacks?” they ask.

REGULARS NEWS ENVIRONMENT INSIDE TRACK COMMENT GRUMBLES CAREERS DIVERSIONS

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NEWS ROUND-UP

Pay award sees NCT top bus earnings league Municipal makes move in reponse to 5% vacancy rate RECRUITMENT

Nottingham City Transport has announced significant pay increases for driving staff and new starters that will make them amongst the highest earners in the country outside London.

In December the councilowned bus operator announced the introduction of a temporary timetable from January 10 that saw NCT adopting a Saturday timetable on weekdays and taking the tough decision to suspend the entire NightBus network as the operator battled with a crippling driver shortages.

The operator admitted that it had a vacancy rate of around 5% with a further 5% of staff unable to attend work whilst they self-isolate because of Covid-19, resulting in an increasing number of short notice cancellations to

‘ANY TICKET, ANY BUS’ LAUNCH

Cornish operators plan major fare reforms in 2022 TICKETING

Further improvements to Cornwall’s bus network have been launched with the introduction of integrated ticketing across the county.

Previously, passengers who bought a return or a multi-journey ticket would be restricted to only using the same company’s bus services from whom it was purchased, but since the beginning of they year they have been able to use that same ticket on any bus operator within Cornwall.

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the its network.

Now bus staff at the operator have overwhelmingly accepted a substantial pay offer, which sees the city’s bus drivers earning amongst the highest rates in the UK outside the capital.

A total of 82% of drivers voted to accept the offer, which was negotiated between NCT and local officials from the Unite

trade union.

The new rates of pay commence from January 30, two months ahead of the normal anniversary date. It sees the top rate increase by £1 per hour to £13.10 per hour.

NCT’s starter rate for new drivers, including during their full training period, increases to £11.32 per hour. After six months, this

Pay award sees top rate of pay increase to £13.10 per hour

Bus users are be able to use their ticket on services operated by First South West’s Cornwall by Kernow operation, Go-Ahead subsidiary Go Cornwall Bus, Stagecoach South West and local independents Hopleys, OTS and Travel Cornwall.

Other changes also see young people under 19 benefitting from half price fares as part of the so-called ‘any ticket, any bus’ initiative.

“This is a big first step to better value bus travel in Cornwall,” said Richard Stevens, managing director of Go Cornwall Bus. “Not only does this make traveling around Cornwall by bus easier, for many it will make it cheaper. We are looking forward

to working with the other Transport for Cornwall partners to deliver more exciting projects in 2022”.

Simon Goff, managing director of First South West added: “This partnership is truly innovative

Richard Stevens (left) and Simon Goff at the launch

rises to £11.71 per hour.

In addition the operator has highlighted a “generous” benefits package that includes paid meal breaks, pension scheme, a health care package that includes dental and optical care and life assurance.

“Our drivers have been working on the front line throughout the pandemic, keeping Nottingham moving,” said David Astill, NCT’s managing director. “This pay award recognises their exceptional efforts and also incorporates an adjustment, recognising that the labour market for drivers has tightened in the last six months.

“We offer some of the highest pay rates for bus driving in the country, and encourage people contemplating a change of career to seriously consider joining Britain’s best bus company for a career that has always offered long term security and generous benefits.”

Simon Harris, Unite’s branch secretary, said the pay award was “a significant result for our members”. “By standing together in unity they ensured that the company made a pay offer that met their expectations,” he added.

we’re all coming together with one clear aim, to make things easier for customers across the county. Our future plans will help transform public transport in Cornwall and we’re really proud to be a part of it.

‘Any ticket any bus’ is just the start.”

Over the next few months, the operators, along with Cornwall Council, will be introducing a variety of schemes including a bus fares pilot backed by the Department for Transport which will see fares reduce further across the county.

In addition, the partnership will be rolling out tap on/tap off technology which will make sure customers always get the very best value fare. www.passengertransport.co.uk

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“Can we do it; how do we do it; what would it cost; and how do we fund it”

Herefordshire explores options for franchising Birthplace of bus deregulation probes regulatory move REGULATION

Herefordshire Council has announced it is exploring options to franchise the county’s bus network as a result of what it describes as “instability in the local bus market”.

The move would be a notable change for an area where, along with north east Norfolk and east Devon, the concept of bus deregulation was tested from 1981 prior to the wholesale deregulation of bus services outside London in 1986.

The decision by Herefordshire to explore options for greater regulation of the local bus network follows the decision by local independent bus operator Yeomans Travel to pull the plug

£7M TO PRESS ON WITH FRANCHISING Move follows election of Brabin on reform ticket REGULATION

The West Yorkshire Combined Authority has approved spending of between £4m and £7m to carry out an assessment of bus franchising.

The move follows the election of Tracy Brabin as mayor of West Yorkshire last year on a range of commitments that included bringing bus services in the region back under public control.

The combined authority says the assessment forms a “key part of this pledge” through building an evidence base to evaluate options for bus reform. While West Yorkshire www.passengertransport.co.uk

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on its largely commercial network of bus services in Hereford on December 31 (PT254).

The company had taken on the bulk of the city’s bus network in 2015 when incumbent First announced it was closing the local operation. Yeomans said it too was pulling out as a result of continued declining patronage and rising traffic congestion.

Herefordshire has awarded a

Expansion for Sargeants Brothers

is still progressing with plans for an enhanced partnership from April, the combined authority says it also wishes to explore both partnership and franchising as the means to deliver the best bus service.

“The assessment will consider and prepare a full business case for the proposed bus franchising scheme,” said the combined authority. “This will incorporate an evaluation of the benefits/impacts of bus franchising and compare these with other bus reform options.”

It continued that a key benefit of the assessment was that it would provide an evidence base on which a fully informed decision can be taken on whether to progress with franchising, thereby supporting Brabin’s pledge.

contract to rival independent Sargeants Brothers to operate a number of temporary bus services in Hereford. It has also extended a contract with a transport consultancy to explore if franchising the county’s network would be a viable option.

While a decision to proceed with an Enhanced Partnership with local bus operators was taken in June 2021 as part of the Bus Service Improvement Plan process, the council says it is now keen to “explore the possibility for an approach based on bus franchising”.

“This takes into account the low service coverage across the county, instability in the local bus market and the need to consider all available options,” said Phil Crossland, the council’s interim service director - highways, environment and waste.

The combined authority says the current voluntary partnership with operators has created some successes, but bus patronage is still falling and there is an expectation that further public financial support may be required as services “struggle to be commercially viable”.

It adds “the current model has few

Tracy Brabin : commitment to public control of bus network

“On this basis, the cabinet member has asked officers to progress a technical assessment of the opportunity for bus franchising in Herefordshire and to answer the following: can we do it; how do we do it; what would it cost; and how do we fund it?”

Consultancy Integrated Transport Planning will produce its assessment by April and the council anticipates a variation to ITP’s existing contract with the council will cost £16,740.

But Crossland warned that the move could undermine work to establish the Enhanced Partnership with local operators.

He said that this risk would be managed through “cabinet member and cabinet briefings” to ensure that the timescale to progress and introduce a bus franchise is understood.

He also said it was important the Enhanced Partnership was successfully introduced in the short term in order to “comply with government guidance and increase the chance of securing external funds”.

incentives for operators and local authorities to work together resulting in a network that is not strategically planned and is focussed on profitable routes and times of day”.

The combined authority estimates that between £4m to £7m will be required to carry out the assessment.

This is based on advice provided by consultants EY. Costings are based on publicly available data from Greater Manchester’s own assessment of franchising and informed by EY’s experience elsewhere.

The work will be overseen by the Bus Strategy Board with an accountable senior officer overseeing EY’s work. Some form of public consultation is expected to be part of this process, although no timescales have yet been provided.

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NEWS ROUND-UP

Clyde Metro at top of Scottish projects list The Scottish Government has published its blueprint for future transport investment and it includes plans for a mass transit scheme in Glasgow INVESTMENT

A mass transit metro system for Glasgow is one of 45 recommendations for transport improvements and projects contained in the Scottish Government’s second Strategic Transport Projects Review (STPR2). The schemes aim to play a part in making Scotland “fairer and greener”.

The multi-billion pound Clyde Metro scheme would transform connectivity in the Glasgow City Region up to around 15km from the city centre. It would target areas where connections are currently poor, including places where there is deprivation.

It could include one of or a combination of bus rapid transit, light rail and metro rail. These options would complement the service provided by traditional

railways and may include the conversion of existing railways to light rail or metro rail.

Although there is no firm funding commitment to the plans, STPR2 has recommended that Transport Scotland continues to work with Glasgow City Council, Strathclyde Partnership for Transport and other partners on developing the business cases and delivery plan for the scheme.

Meanwhile, similar mass transit schemes are planned for Edinburgh and the immediate environs of the city and Aberdeen.

The Edinburgh scheme would “focus on key corridors of demand as well as where congestion impacts on bus services and where the public transport offer is more limited”. This could potentially see the city’s tram network expanded further.

Scotland sets out plan to cut car kms by 20% Commitment to buses and ‘Fair Fares Review’ The Scottish Government has published a ‘route map’ outlining how it intends to meet its ambitious target to reduce car kilometres by 20% by 2030.

The world-leading target was set out in the Climate Change Plan Update, published in December 2020. The route map set outs a range of sustainable travel behaviours to achieve the

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target which are grouped into four broad categories: travel less; stay local; switch mode; and combine a journey.

The Scottish Government adds it intends to commission research to explore equitable options for demand management to discourage car use, to enable the development of a new framework for car demand

STPR2 is also keen to see Transport Scotland working with regional partners to develop and enhance the cross-boundary public transport system for the region, potentially comprising tram and bus-based transit modes including Bus Rapid Transit.

“This would complement and integrate with the region’s current bus, tram and heavy rail networks, to provide improved connectivity between the City of Edinburgh and the surrounding communities in the region,” the review adds.

Meanwhile, a bus-based rapid transit system is mooted for the city of Aberdeen. This would improve regionwide connectivity and encourage a switch from car to public transport and other more sustainable travel options. The system would focus on key

management by 2025.

Many of the proposals are aimed at reducing the need to travel, such as extending superfast broadband and legislative support for flexible working.

But there are interventions planned to help Scots switch modes with public transport having an important role to play in this area. These include a ‘Fair Fares Review’ into public transport fares and reinforcing a commitment to the £500m Bus Partnership Fund.

corridors of demand as well as where congestion impacts on bus services.

On bus priority the review recommends interventions continue to be identified and implemented on the trunk road and motorway network. Within the local networks these could be taken forward using the Bus Partnership Fund process.

Rail corridor enhancements are planned on the Highland Main Line, including new and longer passing loops with more flexibility, and permissible speed increases.

STPR2 also recommends a programme of improvements on the Perth-Dundee-Aberdeen and Edinburgh/Glasgow-Perth/ Dundee rail corridors.

Work will also continue to decarbonise the rail network.

Priorities for this include East Kilbride, Barrhead, Borders and Fife Circle; Perth-DundeeAberdeen-Dyce; and DunblanePerth-Inverness -Dalcross.

On buses the review recommends further investment to stimulate the commercial roll out of zero-emission buses with an extension of existing funding criteria to include vehicles used for home to school and community transport. It also highlights that the Scottish Zero Emission Bus (ScotZEB) challenge fund may also need to evolve in order to ensure “a just transition to zero emission buses across all operators”.

Meanwhile, the review also recommends trialling flexible options, such as Demand Responsive Transport (DRT), perhaps supported by Mobility as a Service (MaaS), to help to establish whether scarce existing resources could be better utilised across the public network, home-to-school transport, special educational needs travel and nonemergency patient travel. www.passengertransport.co.uk

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Reduced railway timetables - are they temporary? Page 18

‘Landmark moment’ for HS2 to Manchester Bill for Crewe to Manchester extention laid in parliament HIGH SPEED RAIL

The government this week introduced a bill at Westminster that will lay the foundations to extend HS2 from Crewe to Manchester.

The High Speed Rail (Crewe to Manchester) Bill would allow construction of Phase 2b of the project to get underway with new stations at Manchester Airport and Manchester Piccadilly.

The government says Phase 2b will cut journey times from London to Manchester by around 55 minutes and Birmingham to Manchester by up to 45 minutes.

Part of the new line will also be used for Northern Powerhouse Rail services between Leeds,

Manchester and Liverpool.

On these services the extension will help cut journey times between Manchester and Liverpool to just 35 minutes.

“We are determined to improve transport connections and level up communities across the country and this bill marks a landmark moment as we bring HS2 to Manchester and lay the foundations for Northern Powerhouse Rail,” said transport secretary Grant Shapps.

HS2 Ltd says delivering Phase 2b will create significant benefits for commuter towns south of

“HS2 has an integral role to play in levelling up Britain’s economy”

Manchester as long-distance services shift onto the dedicated HS2 route.

Up to three new train paths per hour could be released between Crewe and Manchester via Stockport, and the number of seats on services between Crewe, Stoke-on-Trent and Manchester could more than double during the evening peak as a result.

“HS2 has an integral role to play in levelling up and rebalancing Britain’s economy, and this extension of the network fuels that role by bringing the country’s economic centres in the North and Midlands closer together,” said Mark Thurston, CEO of HS2 Ltd. Thurston added the project was already supporting over 20,000 jobs and spearheading local investment along the route.

METRO FLOW IS ON TRACK A £100m track dualling scheme that will increase service frequency, reduce journey times, and improve reliability on the Tyne and Wear Metro has officially got underway. The Metro Flow project will see an existing freight line upgraded and electrified in South Tyneside, making it capable of carrying Metro services. Metro operator Nexus joined local council leaders and contractors to cut the first piece of turf - marking the start of work. www.passengertransport.co.uk

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IN BRIEF REFURBISHMENT COMPLETED Transport for Wales has completed work to refurbish its fleet of Class 175 long-distance trains. Train manufacturer Alstom has been working to refurbish the 27 Coradia trains at their Technology Centre in Widnes, Cheshire, as part of TfW’s £40m rolling stock investment programme. The Class 175s form the backbone of TfW’s express services, operating services across the Wales and Borders network through south, north and west Wales and the Borders.

HULL TRAINS RESTORATION Open access operator Hull Trains has announced it will restore two services to its timetable on February 7, earlier than planned.

The train operator introduced a reduced timetable in late December as customer demand fell to reflect concerns over a possible future lockdown. The reduced timetable came less than a fortnight after the business had introduced its 94th service, the highest service level ever offered in the company’s history.

MK TO BID FOR GBR Milton Keynes has announced it will bid to become the headquarters of Great British Railways. A competition to find the home of the new headquarters is expected to be launched imminently and the Buckinghamshire new town says it is at the heart of the modern network and with a raft of railway history. “We hope to welcome Great British Railways to show them the talent and skills they can access in Milton Keynes as well as our brilliant urban and green spaces,” said council leader Pete Marland.

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NEWS ROUND-UP

Khan threatens to axe New Routemaster fleet Mid-life refurbishment could be scrapped in TfL funding row VEHICLES

London mayor Sadiq Khan has warned that London’s fleet of flagship New Routemaster vehicles could be withdrawn from service unless the government provides Transport for London with long-term funding.

Axing the bus fleet, which is owned by TfL but leased to operators, is among a raft of proposals being considered by Khan and TfL officials.

TfL ‘paused’ the award of all new bus route contracts in November and Khan has warned this will have inevitable consequences on the vehicle supply chain, a move he says could hit the 3,000 jobs supported by

BOND STREET STILL BEHIND SCHEDULE Elizabeth line station may not be ready for opening PROJECTS

Transport for London has confirmed it expected passenger services on the Elizabeth line to commence in the first half of this year, with an initial service linking Abbey Wood in south east London with London Paddington.

However, it has emerged that Bond Street station may not be ready when the line initially opens.

TfL’s Elizabeth Line Committee heard this week that Bond Street “has been decoupled from the opening of the railway” with Crossrail Ltd “working on a plan to get the earliest opening date for the station”.

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new buses for the London market in Scarborough, Falkirk, Leeds and Ballymena.

This pause in contract awards could also threaten plans to electrify the capital’s bus fleet. At present TfL is planning to have a completely zero emission bus fleet by 2034, but it has warned this could slip to at least 2037.

Khan says bus electrification in London is encouraging other areas around the country to follow - so if orders for electric buses stop in London, not only will jobs be at risk, but progress towards electrification will slow nationally, increasing costs and losing the benefit for the entire country.

But the cuts could also go further and hit the New Routemaster fleet, a flagship policy of prime minister Boris Johnson during his eight-year

tenure as the mayor of London until 2016.

The 1,000-strong fleet is due its mid-life refurbishment and City Hall has warned that if the government fails to provide the funding required, TfL may be unable to proceed with the planned refurbishment, opting to withdraw the entire fleet instead.

“London’s transport system is not only fundamental to the success of the capital, but to driving economic prosperity right across the length and breadth of the country,” said Khan.

“Failure to provide sustainable funding will lead to less economic prosperity across the country, with fewer jobs created, fewer homes built and, crucially, less revenue generated for the Treasury to invest around the country.”

In late 2019 it was revealed that the station was running 18 months behind schedule. Work to complete the troubled station was taken inhouse after Crossrail Ltd paid the Costain Skanska joint venture a final £19m payment to end their involvement on constructing the station in June 2020.

Despite improvements made since that time, Bond Street is understood be still be around three months behind schedule. However, Crossrail Ltd has reported that the station is now at a point where it can be used for large scale passenger trials and staff familiarisation.

At Canary Wharf remedial works to safety systems have been completed and the station was transferred to TfL control this week. It means the station can now be fully integrated

with the network.

Elsewhere, last month saw the latest version of the Siemens signalling software commissioned along with updated train control software on the fleet of Elizabeth line Class 345 trains. There were also upgrades to both the control communications system and the tunnel ventilation system.

Trial operations are continuing

RESHUFFLE FOR TFL’S TOP TEAM

Executive team head count cut from 11 to seven PEOPLE

London transport commissioner Andy Byford has revealed a new executive team structure for Transport for London that aims to “meet the coming challenges and opportunities”. It will also see the executive team head count reduced from 11 to seven covering a single unified organisation.

Gareth Powell, currently managing director of surface transport, will become chief customer and strategy officer for the whole of TfL. He will also serve as the nominated deputy commissioner.

Stuart Harvey, currently director of major projects, will become TfL’s chief capital officer. Meanwhile, London Underground managing director Andy Lord will become TfL’s new chief operating officer, bringing all of TfL’s operations together in one place for the first time.

Tricia Wright remains chief people officer, Lilli Matson as chief safety, health and environment officer, and Howard Carter as general counsel. Following chief financial officer Simon Kilonback’s decision to leave TfL, Rachel McLean, CFO for Crossrail and financial director for London Underground and Engineering, will succeed him as interim CFO in April.

As a result of the reorganisation, Vernon Everitt, managing director for customers, communication and technology, is to leave TfL. Meanwhile, London mayor Sadiq Khan also announced a change to the transport portfolio at City Hall at the end of 2021 when Heidi Alexander stepped down as deputy mayor for transport. She has been replaced by former London MEP Seb Dance. Alexander will remain on the TfL board until the central section of the Elizabeth line opens. www.passengertransport.co.uk

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What do bus users want in a postCovid world? Page 14

Competition watchdog intervenes on merger NEG and Stagecoach merger paused as CMA probes deal ACQUISITIONS

The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has served an Initial Enforcement Order which has effectively paused the planned combination of National Express Group and Stagecoach.

The all-share merger will create a group worth nearly £2bn with a fleet of some 40,000 vehicles and a workforce of around 70,000.

NEG shareholders would hold a 75% stake in the new entity, and Stagecoach’s 25%.

However, the CMA’s Order effectively prevents the two transport groups from launching any activity that would amount to embarking on a merger while the CMA investigates the

ramifications of the proposed merger of the two groups.

The decision has led Stagecoach to pause its planned disposal of the marketing, retail and customer service activities of its wholly owned Megabus UK and Falcon South-West express coach operations, plus its 35% interest in Scottish Citylink, to Singaporean-owned transport group ComfortDelGro. ComfortDelGro had agreed to buy these operations from the Perth-based group for £8.75m in a move that Stagecoach said “proactively addresses potential regulatory considerations” in relation to the group’s acquisition

by NEG. It had been hoped the deal would have been completed

by February 28.

In a stock exchange announcement, Stagecoach

reiterated that it continued to believe the disposal of these operations “represents a comprehensive solution to any competition concerns that might arise from their overlapping coach operations” The group added it would engage with the CMA in order to ensure a swift resolution and allow the disposal to complete as soon as possible.

“We do not expect the IEO to materially affect the day to day operations of either National Express or Stagecoach, and the parties will continue to work with the CMA in relation to its review of the combination,” Stagecoach added. “At this stage, the boards of National Express and Stagecoach continue to expect the combination to complete around the end of 2022.”

FLAGS OF ALL NATIONS Transdev Blazefield is flying the flag for its multi-national team with a specially-liveried bus that features the flags of 40 nations, including countries as far afield as Nigeria, China, Ecuador and Slovakia, each one highlighting the diverse nature of the Harrogate-based bus operator’s team. Its introduction comes as Transdev steps up its campaign to recruit more new staff from all backgrounds to get on board with its expansion plans in 2022. www.passengertransport.co.uk

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IN BRIEF NEG TOP FOR SAFETY National Express Group’s UK bus division has won the coveted ‘Sword of Honour’ from the British Safety Council. It is the fifth time the division has been endorsed as one of the best of the best for safety. The group has successfully held its five star rating since 2016.

In its latest audit, it scored an impressive 97.86%. It confirms NEG’s “proven track record and culture of excellence in occupational health and safety management, including wellbeing and mental health at work”.

ARRIVA INVESTMENT Arriva has introduced 34 new vehicles at its operations in Merseyside. All feature audio visual stop announcements, WiFi and USB charging ports to help enhance onboard passenger experience. 24 Wrightbus StreetDeck buses will be introduced in Liverpool on Route 10B running between Huyton and Liverpool and Route 14 running between Croxteth and Liverpool. A further 10 Wrightbus StreetLite midibuses are being be introduced at the group’s operations in Southport.

SMARTZONE EXPANDS Oxford’s SmartZone ticketing scheme has been expanded with the news that tickets will now be accepted on Arriva buses serving the city. The group operates two interurban services into the centre of Oxford via the city’s railway station.

“Bringing Arriva services into the Oxford SmartZone scheme makes bus travel easier for everyone and complements our existing range of great value tickets,” said Andrew Godley, the group’s regional commercial director.

28 January 2022 | 09

27/01/2022 16:35

NEWS ROUND-UP

Investment concerns as Wales delays legislation Bus operators in Wales have called for greater clarity about the future of the industry after a white paper on reforming bus services was delayed yet again REGULATION

A white paper on reforming Welsh bus services has been delayed again, two months after ministers said it would be published in January.

Since 2017, the Welsh Government has been talking of replacing deregulation. A white paper in 2018 led to a bill being introduced to the Senedd in March 2020. Covid-19 prevented progress before the Welsh Parliamentary election last May. The previous bill would have given Welsh local authorities similar tools to those contained in English and Scottish legislation since 2017. The new White paper is expected to outline broadly the same measures, but no date for its publication has been set.

On 16 November, first minister Mark Drakeford told the Senedd: “We will publish a bus plan in January, which will be the precursor to the white paper and the Bill that we will then bring forward here in the Senedd to re-regulate bus services.” Deputy climate change minister Lee Waters said on the following day that the bus White paper would be introduced “in the New Year”.

Asked for an update last week, a government spokesman said: “A White paper covering legislative reform in relation to the planning and delivery of bus services will be published later this year to allow for further engagement with stakeholders.”

Bev Fowles, vice-chair of the Coach and Bus Association 10 | 28 January 2022 PT257p10-11.indd 10

First Cymru was recently operating this 21-year old vehicle in South Wales

Cymru, said it would have been nice for the government to have informed the industry of the delay, rather than waiting for a media question.

“People are saying that the government aren’t going to get the legislation through in this Parliament, because there are other things going in front of it now,” he said. “Comments to that effect have been made in

“The fleet gets older and more expensive to run.

Some vehicles are older than Euro 4”

joint meetings between us, local authorities, Welsh Government and civil servants. I’ve heard it several times now.”

The government did not confirm or deny this suggestion.

Fowles added: “If you make a statement in November 2021 that you’re going to do something in January 2022, you should ensure it happens or explain properly why it’s delayed.”

CPT Cymru director Joshua Miles said: “As we emerge from the pandemic, buses will be central to delivering the Welsh Government’s ambitions on net zero and modal shift. To ensure they can play their full part we need to rebuild confidence and encourage passengers out of their

cars and onto buses.

“This needs to start with a clear vision from the Welsh Government in its upcoming bus strategy for the future of bus services and the measures it’s going to take, including its legislative proposals, to achieve it. Bus operators are ready to work in partnership to develop and deliver such a vision.

“This certainty will be essential to help encourage investment in the services we all want to see, including on key issues like the decarbonisation of the Welsh bus fleet.”

Fowles said bus operators needed clarity before they could plan for the next few years.

“The fleet gets older and more expensive to run. Some vehicles are even older than Euro 4.” He had recently seen a double decker which was over 20 years old in service in the Port Talbot area, which has some of the UK’s worst air pollution.

He said Newport Transport and Cardiff Bus were exceptions.

Both have introduced electric buses with funding from the Department for Transport and other public sources.

Newport’s innovative agreement with Zenobe on batteries was underpinned by the local authority’s ownership of the company, said Fowles. For other operators, the forward plan was “to get through tomorrow”.

He said his company, South Wales Transport, had stopped investing in new vehicles about five years ago. “When you buy a new bus you’ve got to take a personal guarantee out for the funding. You don’t want that hanging around your neck and the Welsh Government saying it’s going for franchising. Suddenly you could lose all your routes because someone else has taken them over.” www.passengertransport.co.uk

27/01/2022 16:35

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27/01/2022 16:35

ENVIRONMENT ELECTRIC BUSES

Left to right: David Bradford, Andy Street, National Express Coventry operations manager Agata Litwinowicz-Soltysiak and Coventry councillor Jim O’Boyle

130 electric buses on order for Coventry

National Express Coventry has ordered the brand-new zero-emission fleet as part of government’s flagship £140m All Electric Bus City project ELECTRIC BUSES

A fleet of 130 zero-emission double decker buses will be introduced next year as part of a £140m project to make the city of Coventry the UK’s first allelectric bus city.

Last year Transport for West Midlands secured £50m of funding from the Department for Transport to ensure every bus in Coventry is zero-emission.

Now operator National Express Coventry has ordered the first batch of vehicles which will enter service in early 2023. The 12 | 28 January 2022 PT257p12-13.indd 12

company is set to order further buses at a later date.

Similar agreements with other bus companies and those running subsidised services are likely to follow, with the aim of putting up to 300 electric buses on the streets of Coventry, guaranteeing an all-electric fleet by 2025.

In addition to new vehicles, TfWM is also working with Coventry City Council to create the necessary charging infrastructure to power the new buses. This will include upgrades to bus depots and charging points at Pool Meadow Bus Station.

“It really is incredibly exciting

“It really is incredibly exciting to think next year we will have 130 all-electric buses on the streets of Coventry” Andy Street, mayor of West Midlands

to think next year we will have 130 all-electric buses on the streets of Coventry thanks to the deal we have signed with National Express,” said Andy Street, the mayor of the West Midlands.

“These clean and green double decker buses will not only be fantastic for passengers with their comfort and state-of-the-art technology, but will also help in reducing air pollution and tackling the climate emergency.

“Buses are the backbone of transport in the West Midlands, and a key part of the public transport revolution we have been undergoing in recent years. So I am delighted we have been able to make yet another landmark investment as we look to build on our pre-pandemic levels of patronage - where the West Midlands was the only region that saw a rise in bus passenger numbers.”

National Express Coventry has been operating 10 fully electric buses across the city since summer 2020. In 2019, Coventry City Council was awarded £2.2m from the government’s UltraLow Emission Bus Scheme to fund the buses and supporting infrastructure. The company’s Coventry depot has been fitted with solar panels which harvest renewable energy during the day and help to recharge the electric buses overnight.

David Bradford, managing director of National Express West Midlands, said these buses have now passed the 850,000 mile mark and saved 1,400 tonnes of CO2. “Hundreds more of these zero-emission buses are now on their way,” he added. “It is really great news for Coventry.

“By working together we are committed to driving improvements for our customers, as well as contributing to huge health and mobility benefits.” www.passengertransport.co.uk

27/01/2022 15:30

A quarter of Cardiff fleet now zero emission Operator launches new fleet of 36 Yutong electric buses ELECTRIC BUSES

In one of the first major launch events since the onset of the pandemic, Cardiff Bus revealed its new fleet of 36 electric buses at a special event in the Welsh capital earlier this month.

The introduction of the Yutong E12 zero-emission buses is part of the operator’s strategy to reduce emissions and air pollution in Cardiff. Their introduction, which has been made possible thanks to a successful bid for funding from the Department for Transport’s Ultra-Low Emissions Bus Scheme, means that around a quarter of the council-owned operator’s fleet is now zero emission.

Zenobe implemented the charging infrastructure and end-to-end software solution to manage the fleet charging for the

Operator will slash emissions and operating costs

zero-emission vehicles, as well as the resulting power requirements.

“It is great to see the new fleet of electric buses on the streets of Cardiff, and they will play an important part towards our clean air and carbon neutral ambitions for the city,” said Caro Wild, Cardiff Council’s cabinet member for strategic planning and transport.

“We know from our own

research that people are genuinely excited about electric buses coming to Cardiff, so now that they are here, we hope as many people will use them as possible.”

Paul Dyer, the municipal’s managing director, said the introduction of the new fleet was a huge step in the operator’s goal to reach a fully zero emission bus fleet while providing a first class service to passengers.

One of the new vehicles features a special livery that celebrates 120 years of the council-owned bus operator.

Dyer continued: “Cardiff Bus has been committed to providing travel for the people of our city for nearly 120 years, and we are extremely proud of the part we play in city life.

“We take our role in improving the air quality in Cardiff very seriously and we know that this development is going to be instrumental in ensuring city life can continue in a more green and sustainable fashion.”

Dyer added that during their life, the vehicles will save around 650,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions when compared to conventional diesel vehicles. He also said the operator would reduced costs as the fleet is around a third cheaper to operate and maintain.

Dyer said that the vehicles would also be an important tool in rebuilding patronage as the company begins to recover from the pandemic. He concluded with a call for further action to tackle the growing threat of ever increasing levels of traffic congestion in the Welsh capital.

‘A MINUS’ GREEN RATING FOR GROUP Environmental audit sees Go-Ahead on top again ACCREDITATION

Go-Ahead Group has received an ‘A minus’ rating from CDP for the second year in a row - the highest score of any UK public transport company. The group has reduced CO2 emissions per vehicle mile by 25% in just under five years (2016/2017 baseline) across its bus operations. On the group’s rail operations there was a 5% improvement in Govia Thameslink Railway’s electric fleet efficiency. www.passengertransport.co.uk

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NOBINA OPTS FOR ELECTRIC TRAMBUSES Belgian manufacturer Hool has concluded a contract with Nordic Group Van is UK’s largest electric The 24-metre long vehicles will enter bus operator Nobina for 21 battery electric Exqui.City bi-articulated trambuses. bus operator service later this year in Malmö, Sweden. The vehicles are plug-in battery-electric and will be charged at Nobina’s depot.

28 January 2022 | 13

27/01/2022 15:30

INSIDE TRACK

What do bus users want in a post-Covid world?

How do we lure people back to using bus services and how do we attract those who never used them? Transport Focus’s research provides insights For over 10 years now Transport Focus has represented bus passengers Louise Coward in England Transport Focus outside London. As part of this we drive changes to get better services by looking at priorities for improvement and monitoring satisfaction among passengers.

We have used this evidence to help the improvement of local bus services up and down the country.

We now have a central role in representing bus passengers as we make the most of the opportunity presented by Bus Back Better, the government’s first National Bus Strategy for England.

Our work looks at making sure local bus services meet passenger needs and identifying how they can be better. We have put together guidance documents and run webinars on them to help local authorities write their Bus Service Improvement Plans and Enhanced Partnership proposals to reflect passenger interests.

Following the interruption of our Bus Passenger Survey due to the pandemic we’ve been trialling different ways of getting passengers’ views. We hope to launch our new satisfaction survey a bit later in the year.

These findings will help support the bus industry in delivering improvements set out in BSIPs. In the meantime we are publishing weekly surveys on satisfaction on both bus and rail. These are mostly 14 | 28 January 2022 PT257p14-15.indd 14

reported at a national level but there are common themes which can help local transport authorities put together their plans.

The pandemic presents a challenge. Bus patronage understandably plummeted under lockdown restrictions and is yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. It is important that operators can take this chance to understand what is needed to win back lost passengers as well as work to attract new ones.

“It’s clear that buses can’t depend on commuter travel in the same way”

National Bus Strategy work We understand that improving bus services is a continuous process and we are in it for the long-term. BSIPs include targets up to 2029-30 and Enhanced Partnership plans are likely to be made for at least five years. Bus franchising will take years not months to be fully introduced and start to make an impact.

The high attendance at our webinars (148 at our most recent one) shows the value we have added to the decisions being made.

And we have worked particularly closely with the alliances, steering groups and forums we sit on in the West Midlands (which we chair), Liverpool City Region, the North East, West Yorkshire, Greater

Manchester, Cambridgeshire & Peterborough and Cornwall.

We will continue to advise on the Bus Passenger Charters which all partnerships are expected to produce. These should be short, punchy documents setting out what passengers can expect every time they use the bus and what they should do if their expectations are not met.

Drawing on our passenger research, we will work with operators and authorities to refine ways of monitoring performance against BSIP passenger growth, punctuality and reliability targets.

This will help ensure that they offer sufficient granularity to identify areas which require changes to the plans to be more effective. We will ask questions on whether investment has been effective in driving up standards and look at how progress is measured and communicated.

We’ll continue to work with authorities and operators, offering bespoke passenger research and advice as they seek to deliver on their commitments.

SATISFACTION WITH DIFFERENT ASPECTS OF THE BUS SERVICE Source: The route ahead: getting passengers back on buses, Transport Focus, June 2021 The availability of seating or space to stand The bus being free of litter Being able to keep a safe distance while getting on and off the bus The punctuality of the bus (arriving on time) The hygiene of the bus The helpfulness and attitude of the driver How well the bus company looked after Covid-19 safety Information about Covid-19 at the bus stop and inside the bus Passengers keeping a safe distance on-board The frequency of services in your area Air ventilation The payment options available (if you have to pay for your fare) The value for money of your journey(s) Enforcement of passengers to wear face coverings Information about services and fares at bus stop and inside the bus Being able to find out how busy/full the bus is likely to be Don’t know

Dissatisfied

Neither/nor

6 12 9 15 10 15 12 14 9 17 8 18 8 18 8 18 14 15 15 15 11 20 17 5 13 14 16 18 16 16 22 14 17

81 75 74 73 72 72 72 71 70 69 66 65 63 62 58 27

42

Satisfied www.passengertransport.co.uk

27/01/2022 15:30

“Clean, reliable services with clear information on safety measures are needed” The route ahead

Weekly insight

In the summer of 2021 we published our report, The route ahead: getting passengers back on buses.

We asked 7,500 current, lapsed and non-users how they felt about bus services. We wanted to look at the experiences of those taking buses during Covid-19 restrictions to find out what would encourage people to use the bus more.

We learned that clean, reliable services with clear information on safety measures are needed to encourage more people back.

97% of passengers who said they felt very safe while travelling were satisfied with their journey, dropping to just 17% of those who felt very unsafe.

We also looked at satisfaction ratings according to how busy the bus was and found a strong correlation between quieter buses and higher satisfaction.

While this can be attributed to fears of the spread of Covid-19 it can also make the case for more frequent services.

Satisfaction was also closely linked with passengers’ experience of being able to board their first bus - it was 91% for those who were able to do this.

We found getting a seat or having space to stand got the highest satisfaction rating at 81%.

Information on how busy the bus would be received the lowest score, with just 42% satisfied.

As part of the report we made the following recommendations to bus operators to encourage people back on buses: promote and communicate Covid safety measures such as maintaining increased cleaning let passengers know how busy buses are expected to be offer special fares and discounts to attract people to travel keep focussed on delivering frequent, reliable and punctual services.

We have been running our Bus User Weekly Survey since October 2021. This is where we ask passengers in Great Britain about their experiences of travelling by bus outside London and how satisfied they were with their most recent bus journey (made in the last seven days).

We look at the views of around 500 bus passengers each week.

Passengers tell us how satisfied they were with their overall journey along with a range of aspects including the punctuality of their service, the value for money of their ticket and a number of Covid related measures.

The figures have remained fairly steady over a six-week period.

For journey purpose the majority (55-60%) say they are travelling for leisure purposes with 24–30%

www.passengertransport.co.uk

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using the bus for their commute.

It’s clear that buses can’t depend on commuter travel in the same way they may have done previously, however this does lead to opportunities to promote using buses for other activities.

Satisfaction with bus journeys remains relatively high at 87% with only 4% of people saying they are dissatisfied (9% said neither). Over time we have seen this remain fairly stable although there was a dip at the beginning of December to 83%. There is an opportunity to both improve and capitalise on this. We have consistently said that those who use buses like them, the challenge is to encourage non-users onto the bus and give them a good experience so they keep using it.

We also drill into the data to look at how it differs between

OVERALL SATISFACTION WITH LAST BUS JOURNEY, BY GROUP Source: Bus User Weekly Surveys (ongoing), Transport Focus

87%

84%

82%

87%

All respondents

Age 18-34

Age 35-54

Age 55 and over

85%

84%

82%

86%

age, gender and journey purpose.

There is a little difference, with satisfaction above 80% for all groups. We found that those travelling for leisure were more satisfied than commuters at 86% and 82% respectively.

The age group that is least satisfied are 35 to 54 year olds at 82%. This is in comparison to 18 to 34 year olds at 84% and 87% for those aged 55 and over.

We look at satisfaction rates relating to the driver, frequency, journey time and personal security.

Frequency of buses jumps out with 19% very and fairly dissatisfied.

Other factors received far smaller dissatisfaction percentages.

We also found that information on board had a relatively low satisfaction rating over the six-week period compared with other factors, at one stage dipping to 61%. Value for money was also not highly rated with a high of 69%. On the other hand safety of driving was rated consistently high reaching 90% satisfaction at one point.

Much food for thought for operators on how to make tangible improvements for passengers. There are some clear themes which I’m sure will resonate across the country, or at least will be worth looking into to find what passengers want.

Conclusion Men

Women

Commute

All leisure

OVERALL SATISFACTION WITH BUS JOURNEY, OVER TIME Source: Bus User Weekly Surveys (ongoing), Transport Focus 87%

86%

86%

83%

84%

87%

Nov 10-14

Nov 17-21

Nov 24-28

Dec 1-5

Dec 8-12

Dec 15-19

This is a really interesting time for the bus industry. With both the funding and promise from the government there is a chance to make significant improvements to buses and bring about real change for passengers. There will be decisions to make on where funding goes and we want to make sure passengers are listened to on what they want from services.

Transport Focus will be making sure that the passengers are at the heart of decisions.

28 January 2022 | 15

27/01/2022 15:30

COMMENT COVID RECOVERY

JONATHAN BRAY

Time is running out for public transport Despite the ongoing impact of the pandemic, no emergency funding support for public transport is available after March 31 It’s been a shaky start to the new year for public transport. But whilst the lifting of restrictions offers fresh hope, there could still be rough times ahead as the ending of Covid support for public transport looms.

Pre-Christmas, although the ‘work from home where you can’ advice hit public transport’s core commuting market hard, a binge on shopping and socialising kept patronage afloat. This was followed by a post-Christmas hard landing where patronage collapsed in some places. Since then, patronage has been clawing its way back upwards.

Assuming that Covid doesn’t spring any more surprises (and that’s a big assumption), then before long we could have a better idea of roughly what kind of return to the workplace we are looking at, and what the new baseline for public transport use is. It may take some time (perhaps six months?) for many employers and their employees to arrive at whatever their new ways of hybrid working between home and workplace are, given how messy and complicated the trade-offs can be.

Either way, it seems likely - all other things being equal - that the new baseline of demand will be below what it was before the pandemic.

Meanwhile, the Department for Transport won’t share its projections on which the recovery funding up to March 31 is based, so it’s not clear whether there is going to be enough in the kitty given the Omicron episode. And beyond March 31, a case will need to be made to Treasury ministers which will be strong 16 | 28 January 2022 PT257p16-17.indd 16

enough to overcome their starting position, which is that the end of March is their latest line in the sand for additional Covid funding across the economy as a whole. It’s also likely that if and when HMT give ground it will happen close to the wire, because that’s the way they like to roll. The DfT has sought to accommodate this by shortening registration periods but the problem is that local transport authorities and bus operators still have to plan and set budgets and timetables before that.

All of this points to operators moving to rebase commercial networks at a significantly lower level than they were pre-pandemic (and some are now starting to break cover on this). The onus then passes to local transport authorities to step in and pay private operators to keep services running. But local transport authorities themselves have limited resources to do so and the prices that operators are quoting for keeping those services running have soared (price increases of 50% are not uncommon). This reflects both rising costs and operators taking advantage of low levels of competition for tenders to name a take-itor-leave-it price and secure a robust income

“The DfT won’t share its projections on which the recovery funding up to March 31 is based”

stream in an uncertain environment.

The funding challenge for transport authorities with large light rail systems is particularly acute given that most of the costs of light rail systems are fixed making significant cost reductions difficult to achieve (short of closing them down). They also have legal and fiscal responsibilities for their light rail systems which they do not have for bus services. So, if light rail funding isn’t extended beyond March 2022, then transport authorities may be forced to make savings from spending on bus in order to keep their light rail systems operational.

On top of that, there are plenty of other wicked problems to contend with. The bus industry (with an already ageing workforce) is competing for staff at a time when there is a driver shortage as a whole. Why put up with the hassle of shifts and abusive passengers when you get more money and less stress working elsewhere? And unlike for road haulage, where the DfT has a proactive and multi-pronged strategy for addressing multiple aspects of the driver shortage affecting the industry, there is no equivalent wide-ranging DfT strategy for driver shortages on the buses.

Since the autumn, the longer range driver shortage challenges were then exacerbated

by Omicron and associated self-isolation and further exacerbated by industrial relations getting a whole lot scratchier. Industrial action has been on the rise as staff who kept the show on the road during the pandemic and are staying in the industry seek to make good on their stronger negotiating position.

Rising labour costs are also part of a wider inflationary environment - particularly on energy costs (for the unhedged).

It wasn’t meant to be this way of course. The national bus strategy for England, launched in March 2021, envisaged a new dawn for buses with more, cheaper and greener bus services everywhere. It was predicated on £3bn of additional ‘transformational’ funding and on the tacit assumption that the pandemic would soon be over. However, the pandemic is still here and in the November 2021 spending review the Treasury didn’t countersign the £3bn cheque that Number 10 wrote. We still don’t know how the bus money that the Treasury did agree to will be divided up via the BSIP (Bus Service Improvement Plan) process. If more of it isn’t purloined for additional Covid revenue support, then this additional investment will be a shot in www.passengertransport.co.uk

27/01/2022 15:41

It wasn’t meant to be this way. The national bus strategy for England, launched by the prime minister in March 2021 (pictured), envisaged a new dawn for buses

the arm for bus services in the areas that benefit - including through more bus priority schemes.

It also comes on top of the investment in bus infrastructure that is contained within the City Region Sustainable Transport Settlements.

There are also indications that in 2022 more elected politicians are ready to make the tough choices that the wider decarbonisation imperative demands - most recently Sadiq Khan flagging the need for a more comprehensive charging regime for London.

Indeed, the big picture is that there needs to be a far wider realignment of the cost and ease of public transport use and the cost of private motoring. A realignment that is miles away from talk of allowing bus networks to become more commercial again, recovery funding and all the rest of it. Because the truth is that if we want the kind of bus networks that the national bus strategy envisages, then as part of that realignment we would also need to move towards the levels of subsidy for public transport that buy you those kind of outcomes in comparator countries not sink back to the same levels of revenue www.passengertransport.co.uk

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“The danger is that the good stuff that’s coming for bus from BSIPs and the City Region Sustainable Transport Settlements will be too little and too late” subsidy that guaranteed network decline in Great Britain prior to the pandemic.

But returning to the framework we are all working within now, the danger is that the good stuff that’s coming for bus from BSIPs and the City Region Sustainable Transport Settlements will be too little and too late to prevent the first half of 2022 from seeing another lurch downwards in the scale and extent of bus networks - following on from years of pre-Covid decline and the hammer blow of the pandemic itself. There’s still time (but not much) to avert this. It could be done through devolving adequate funding to transport authorities to support networks in a planned, integrated and cost efficient way (rather than allowing the DfT to continue to take the path of least resistance and route Covid funding to private operators so that they

can manage bus service decline in a way that serves their own commercial and corporate interests). It would also require a national strategy for tackling driver shortages as well as pressing the fast forward button on allocating the funding promised in the spending review to improve bus services so that transport authorities can crack on without further clawback and second guessing from Whitehall.

Time is running out though.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Jonathan Bray is the director of the Urban Transport Group. Throughout his career in policy and lobbying roles he has been at the frontline in bringing about more effective, sustainable and equitable transport policies.

28 January 2022 | 17

27/01/2022 15:41

COMMENT COVID RECOVERY

ALEX WARNER

Reduced timetables are they temporary?

Rail users lacked trust in train operators before the cuts were announced. Should they have faith that their services will return?

Back in 2014, Transport Focus produced a compelling paper in relation to trust. It revealed that trust in train operators was pretty low. Indeed, the most trusted company enjoyed the trust of only 52% of those surveyed and the basement score was 22%. Imagine running your own business and achieving such a meagre result! It wasn’t a pretty picture, and perhaps the most damning and unpalatable aspect of this unedifying research that most of the articles reporting on the survey concluded that the results were completely unsurprising.

Last week, Transport Focus supremo Anthony Smith wrote a letter to Department for Transport’s Peter Wilkinson, Network Rail’s Andrew Haines and Rail Delivery Group’s Jacqueline Starr, reflecting on the logic of reducing services in line with Omicrominduced staff shortages so that customers had more certainty around whether their train will run or not. Smith enquired whether there will be a plan to scale back up particularly as the virus seems to be starting to retreat. He also cited the questionable decision to reduce the London to Manchester frequency from three to only one train per hour.

The problem is indeed, one of trust and in the case of customers, if they genuinely had trust in the train operators then they would be more sanguine about the current cuts and confident services will return. I would suggest that I am probably more affected than many by the current situation. I cannot drive a car, I travel nationwide and I live on a branch line 18 | 28 January 2022 PT257p18-19.indd 18

serving Shepperton (from Waterloo) that has had at least five years of service reductions be it the Waterloo blockage, nine weekends of engineering works to try and fix flooding at Fulwell tunnel, industrial action and now Covid. My daughter relies on the service to get to university and reducing the timetable now to hourly is a major upheaval for her. Being a transport ‘insider’, I feel less unnerved because I know senior managers in South Western Railway and they are, in my view, trustworthy.

They do the best for customers, even if the service is sometimes variable.

I read the letter from Anthony Smith and it is, of course, addressed to three of the finest people, who I, unlike your average customer, know. They are individuals that I trust. Peter Wilkinson, his decisions during the worst days

Victoria station: Will the commuters return?

of Covid kept the show on the road, while Andrew Haines had the railway coursing through his veins; his experience and judgment is second-to-none. Jaqueline Starr is renowned as one of the most customer-centric people in the industry and has a background in sectors with credentials for customer service and innovation that are the envy of rail.

It would be cynical to suggest that your average TOC senior leader cares not about customers and is only intent on following the command of their owning group or DfT edict.

In the West Midlands, I have been involved with all of the TOCs to lobby on a decision to agree for the December 2022 timetable changes that we have planned and advocated for, as these will improve both the frequency and timing of services, and provide greater resilience in the timetable. It would have been easier for the operators to ‘keep their heads down’, but collectively they have been working to ensure that key strategic decisions are taken in a joined-up manner to improve the greater good for the region.

However, the TOC environment in which we reside is so markedly different from as recently as five years ago, where the incentive to grow revenue still existed for operators.

Through franchise bidding there was also an almost continuous cycle of mentally stimulating franchise competitions that demanded that industry professionals always look at ways to unlock demand and grow patronage. Today’s railway feels like when I joined Royal Mail in 2011 and worked for just over a year within its letters division, and where every instinct and action was to cut costs and manage decline.

Then, when I moved to the commercial arm of the business, focusing mostly on parcels, it took, I admit, a few months to resharpen my creative and ‘sales’ juices again.

Back to trust. The problem is that this ‘managing decline’ is the default attitude of modern-day government and indeed too many private sector businesses. Whilst in a previous article, I argued that there was no shame in reducing a timetable to reflect lower patronage levels, my fear is that large swathes of the industry have neither the conviction to put their head above the parapet, nor the span of accountability or the commercial acumen to see the current timetable reductions as temporary.

My ‘glass half full’ philosophy keeps reassuring me that by April, when the hotter www.passengertransport.co.uk

27/01/2022 15:52

“Boris’s ‘back to work’ message omitted the fact that commuter services had been cut” weather and longer days kick in, it would be inconceivable that an hourly service will still operate on the Shepperton branch.

However, if we get too far into the cricket season without building back service levels, then, for sure, the days of our line ever having a half-hourly frequency again will be gone forever. And with that, our quality of life is eroded - house prices plummet, locals have less inclination to travel and it’s easier to sit on the sofa at home and watch the match on TV. Social mobility, health and general well-being in north west Surrey becomes a real issue. It’s not as if we have an anywhere near acceptable bus service in our environs either.

Can we trust that rail industry managers haven’t approached this exercise with a view to reducing services through the back door under the guise of Omicrom? Hand on heart, I don’t think they have deliberate underhand motivations. But can I trust them not to let this situation meander and lapse into a lethargic stupor in which the reduced timetable becomes the ‘new norm’? As much as I respect industry colleagues, I don’t see enough evidence across the industry on a day-to-day basis of commercially hungry entrepreneurs, with the guts and conviction to seize the initiative.

Of course, the trade unions, the age-old constraint that has eternally dogged the railway could be the saviour for customers.

Their stranglehold in preventing enforced redundancies and ensuring that the cost base of the industry remains largely ‘fixed’ means that when folk do return from Omicrom induced absences there will be staff hanging round unproductively unless the timetable is stepped up again. We can’t have drivers sitting around with no trains scheduled for them to run or signallers only engaged every hour when a service enters their patch.

That would be a folly. Glory be to the fixed cost base of the railway! However, time and ‘natural wastage’ caused by not replacing those who leave will lead to a staffing plan that is more commensurate with the unappealingly lightweight current timetable, and then there will be less of an incentive to restore services.

I also don’t trust the extent to which many managers understand local market dynamics or feel the pain of a sudden move to an infrequent timetable. I’ve been in enough meetings at industry HQs where folk blithely make snap decisions regarding cuts, either in normal www.passengertransport.co.uk

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services or when disruptions happen, without thinking through the consequences. In many cases they have never visited the places impacted and know nothing about them.

Regularly, the same old services or branch lines suffer inconvenience during disruption because the ‘contingency plan’ means they have to ‘step down’ services, without anyone ever having the nous to reflect on the prolonged misery inflicted over a period of time and the effect on the market. Most industry managers don’t live on the patch they serve and consequently don’t care as much as they should. Those who do reside on their network know they will get grief in the local pub or at dinner parties or on the school run if they or their colleagues are making a pig’s ear of running a train service.

There are exceptions and I think we all know who they are, but many of those overseeing our railway think they are commercially savvy and driven by market needs. They have always been protected by their large corporate structure and compensation package, complete with free travel and final salary pension, and in roles that actually have not much more commercial influence than a teacher, vicar, nurse or social worker! Some think that just because they are called managing directors or CEOs that it must mean they are up there with Richard Branson or Jeff Bezos. You think I’m exaggerating - join me for a cheeky glass of coke one evening and I’ll regale you with some eyebrow-raising tales.

I am not suggesting that the timetable should not shift to meet changing demand - not at all. What I am seeing, though, is, at the early stages, a more wholesale approach to reductions and I just don’t see the bank of historical evidence that suggests the industry will have the drive to do anything but let the situation linger and become the new reality. I would, in some respects, feel more confident if I had sight of a strategic plan with milestones and plans to create new flows, markets and types of customers that would have as their cornerstones a commensurate build back of services as part of a marketable, compelling product. I see little, if any, of the kind of naval gazing, blue-sky discussion around ‘market reinvention’, of creating a new purpose for customers to want to travel and associated marketing message. What are rail’s service differentiators versus staying at home, for instance? There’s lots of talk about innovation

around ticketing, as though the current ticketing proposition is THE impediment to travel and solving it will be the panacea for everything, but I’m not convinced.

The messaging around the service cuts must be clearer and more decisive, otherwise it will continue to lack credibility. I appreciate that it’s not easy to predict the path that the virus will take. Typically, like overrunning engineering works, the railway was one step behind.

Timetable reductions have been implemented during a period in which Covid restrictions have been lifted. Boris’s ‘back to work’ message omitted to mention that commuter services had been cut the very same week.

We, the people, or the customers, can make a difference. When the railways really mattered to communities - when people travelled five days a week to and from work, well before the societal changes that were creeping in pre-pandemic, the stakeholder matrix for the industry was more diverse, complex and vocal. User and other consumer groups were plentiful, they were demanding, and vigilante protests also took to stations - witness the opprobrium during the strikes on Southern and the clamour for sackings after timetable change fiascos in 2018. Newspaper headlines abounded with tales of delays and high fares, with quotes from commuters suffering disruption and at their wits end, regaling tales of the impact on their domestic lives. TOC senior managers were household names for the wrong reasons. Those days could come again - if we had a crystal ball and discovered these ‘temporary’ reductions transpired, inadvertently or not, to become permanent, then they could be reversed by an uprising, of protests, petitions and painful headlines.

You don’t miss something until it’s gone, and it may be that this realisation of the permanent disappearance of services, can grip the nation. If that’s the case, Anthony Smith’s letter last week could be the very start of something big. This is where Transport Focus could and should come into its own as the stakes get higher than ever before.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Alex Warner has over 28 years’ experience in the transport sector, having held senior roles on a multi-modal basis across the sector

28 January 2022 | 19

27/01/2022 15:52

COMMENT STRATEGY

NICK RICHARDSON

Achieving change in the East of England A new strategy is being consulted on but will it deliver transformational change that the region clearly needs?

Transport East, a collective of local authorities, business and transport interests, has produced A 30-year transport strategy for the East. It is one of a number of organisations that has adopted a sub-national (i.e. regional) approach to planning and transport, plugging the gap between unitary and two-tier local authorities and national policy, such that it is.

Transport East is not alone in this with every region extolling its respective wonders and explaining why more investment should come their way. However, the status of some of these strategies is hard to define, not least because the sub-national entities have varying levels of representation and influence. Transport for the North, one of the more established set-ups has been the subject of pseudo-devolution on the one hand but being restricted by central government edict in what it can do on the other. There are shades of what we have seen in the past when Regional Transport Strategies were created but then abolished.

In their latest form, regional groupings bring together certain common attributes but there are also differences of geography and politics.

Predictably, the current strategies all seem to be heading in the same broad direction regarding their transport desires.

doubt the projected spend will never be taken seriously by the Treasury which will instead point to all the pots of money already available such as the Levelling Up Fund. Whether or not levelling up includes the East of England is questionable given the institutional lack of concern for smaller communities at national level. The major conurbations feature regularly in transport debates which rather overlooks the multitude of smaller settlements and rural communities. Reflecting the well-rehearsed policies of successive plans at a local level, there are some worthwhile propositions including zero carbon transport developments, reducing the demand for travel, modal shift from car and new fuels. There is the inevitable consideration of both the strategic (ports

Going east The Transport East publication illustrates both the benefits and problems of the regional approach and comes complete with a vision, priorities and an investment programme. No 20 | 28 January 2022 PT257p20-21.indd 20

The strategy says all new homes should have electric vehicle charging point

and airports) and local transport networks but there remains the problem of keeping everyone happy.

The result is that all new homes should have electric vehicle charging points but people will be ‘encouraged’ to shift modes. This assumes that everyone moving into a new home will have a car so it is better for them to have an electric car than a petrol or diesel one. Making sustainable transport ‘a more attractive option’ doesn’t work unless there is a sorting out of what really needs to be done rather than carrying on as usual. To some extent this reflects the views of the current secretary of state for transport who can’t see that something has to give because we can’t all carry on regardless in the blind hope that everyone else will adopt new behaviours. For the east of England, reducing the demand for travel appears to mean better digital connections but not much else. Digging deeper into the strategy reveals that demand management measures are likely to be needed to deal with the congestion caused by widespread adoption of electric cars, although how this would be achieved isn’t presented. Linking this with decarbonisation targets suggests that much more is needed.

On the right track?

To its credit, Transport East has generated numerous coherent documents to explain its approach. Arguably there are too many goals, actions, priorities and so on but there are four ‘pathways to delivery’: Decarbonisation to net zero; Connecting growing towns and cities; Energising rural and coastal communities; and Unlocking international gateways.

Exploring these in a bit more detail shows the problem of knitting them all together.

Regarding bus and train services, the only reference to reducing carbon is to limit car parking in places that are easily accessible by public transport, although it doesn’t suggest where. There is talk of reducing the demand for travel but not car demand management in a meaningful way; having reliable broadband does not stop anyone using a car. There is a recognition that better public transport should be achieved alongside reductions in traffic and ‘re-balancing’ car use; this seems to include reallocating road space and changing parking availability and pricing. Where are the www.passengertransport.co.uk

27/01/2022 15:54

IN ASSOCIATION WITH: www.ciltuk.org.uk Tel: 01536 740100 @ciltuk

measures that will enable passenger transport to flourish?Making it more attractive is a start but this requires far more than tinkering at the margins.

Ideally any strategy should be unpredictable and challenging so here is an opportunity to show what conventional buses, on-demand services, small stations, integrated multi-modal journeys and soon could achieve. Regrettably the strategy adopts the aspirations of so many that have gone before in that bus services will somehow recover and attract users just because they are there. However, the strategy points to pilot Digital Demand Responsive Transport schemes that include two bookable minibus services in Essex and Suffolk’s Katch electric shared taxi service around Wickham.

There may well be scope to replicate these elsewhere but in the absence of appropriate funding, a permanent solution seems unlikely.

The Transport East publication illustrates both the benefits and problems of the regional approach

Changing the emphasis Cleaner vehicles provide an opportunity to express support for zero emission buses to ‘play a key role in delivering net zero’ but without mentioning that it is mode shift from car that is effective, not just updating the bus fleet.

The text on connecting towns and cities doesn’t mention buses or coaches at all. There are positive noises about buses being ‘vital for solving transport congestion’ plus support for the national bus strategy. Unfortunately there is a notable absence of any proposals for rural bus services apart from ‘significant potential’ for ‘’superbus’ networks in areas with patchworks of small towns and villages’. This is tantalising as it implies a fresh approach to transport for smaller communities but ‘superbus’ is as ill-defined as it is in the national bus strategy.

Briefly outlined are the South Essex Bus Metro, connections between Kent and Essex, North Essex Rapid Transit and Herts-Essex Rapid Transit although it isn’t clear what these will be or how they will be promoted. These appear to be specific to part of the strategy area and it would be appropriate to see how the concept could translate to other parts of the region. However, a promising note is that Transport East will ‘scope a sub-national passenger transport network’. Also, there is an intention to create a Centre of Excellence for Rural Mobility in the East as an exemplar for other regions; there are lots of other areas www.passengertransport.co.uk

PT257p20-21.indd 21

“The strategy may have a limited life given all the uncertainties of the future” where rural mobility needs a rethink.

It’s all a reassuring package that attempts to provide some coordination across a wide area but it boils down to how much infrastructure funding might be made available from somewhere. It could be argued that, because various sub-national areas have common themes, we could take a less territorial approach and instead focus on issues such as rural services, inter-urban connectivity, urban passenger transport in sub-national urban areas, nationally important links and so on across the country (or countries as the Union Connectivity study reminds us).

Recycling or reinventing strategies doesn’t necessarily help unless there are issues specific to a region. All of them need to be deliverable if they are to have any meaning.

Adopting a mode-agnostic approach helps to define problems and potential solutions before defining some answers at the outset.

Hence rural issues could involve more than better coordination and bus subsidy (tried and tested with limited success) but lean towards combined bus and taxi operations, rural hubs, access to jobs and training and so on. This might end up acknowledging that there is little that can be done in some areas and the most productive measures will be elsewhere.

Add to this the complication of public consultation on the strategy which has a tendency to raise expectations of better transport regardless of how feasible or funded it may be. Willingness to express an opinion at this stage is rather harder than securing effective engagement at the implementation stage. The 30-year strategy may have a limited life given all the uncertainties of the future.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Nick Richardson is Technical Principal at transport consultancy Mott MacDonald, chair of CILT’s Bus and Coach Policy Group and a former chair of the Transport Planning Society. In addition, he has held a PCV licence for over 30 years.

28 january 2022 | 21

27/01/2022 15:54

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27/01/2022 15:33

COMMENT

WANT TO KNOW MORE? Visit Portland’s fuel forum page: portland-analytics.co.uk/fuel-forum

OIL MARKET REPORT

£

PORTLAND FUEL ANALYTICS - JANUARY 2022

What will happen to oil prices in 2022?

Ongoing factors around declining investment in oil and gas coupled with buoyant demand growth look set to push prices up

Although sensible people try to avoid making oil price predictions, we like to put our head “above the parapet” at the beginning of James Spencer each year, with a projection Portland of where we see prices over the next 12 months. Before doing that, we’re happy to point out that in 2021 we got our price predictions pretty much bang on, meaning that for nine out of the last 10 years (exception = 2014), we have got our annual forecasts broadly correct. We won’t labour the point as no-one likes a smart-a*se and the reality is that 2021 was a fairly easy year to call after the carnage of 2020. Prices were low, investment in new oil and gas projects was non-existent and the economic impact of Covid (ie, lockdowns) looked likely to diminish as 2021 progressed. It didn’t take a genius to conclude that prices would rise.

And so they did with the price of crude starting the year at $55 per barrel and finishing at $77, having hit a peak two months earlier at $86 per barrel in October. The narrative behind these price movements was pretty much as we wrote last year: “We predict that prices will go up in 2021 and even see the possibility of a major price spike, as the gap between supply and demand becomes critical.” As we turn our attentions to 2022, we can say that the supplydemand situation remains critical and in fact, the danger of a major price spike looks more likely this year than it did in 2021. Ongoing factors around declining investment in oil and www.passengertransport.co.uk

PT257p22-23.indd 23

gas, coupled with buoyant demand growth are still at play, but a joker has now been added to the pack and that is the extraordinary situation regarding global gas prices.

We covered this in detail in November (PT253), but when the price of any commodity octuples (natural gas has risen by over 800%!!), buyers naturally start to look for alternative sources of supply. Crude (or refined crude) is one of those alternatives and power stations, heavy industry, fertiliser manufacturers and a legion of other gas users are all now switching to oil. Only last week Portland was approached by a food processor who wanted to switch to oil because the gas price made their operations commercially unviable. And whilst the general public may consider oil prices already to be too high, they are still nothing like as high as gas! The collateral damage from the high gas price can be seen everywhere and oil isn’t the only commodity being leaned on as a result.

Coal too has seen an incredible recovery over the last 12 months, with demand rising by over 10% and global coal powered electricity in 2021 hitting all-time record highs. Even more concerning is the International Energy Agency’s prediction that these figures will be exceeded in 2022.

“We easily see oil topping $100 per barrel in the next six months”

The current situation should also be a surefire opportunity for renewables to fill the gap created by exorbitant gas prices. To a certain extent this is true in Europe and North America, where renewables are well developed and already plugged into the energy grid.

However, where there are the greatest energy requirements (China, India, South-East Asia), green energy simply cannot keep up with the rapid growth in electricity demand that comes with post-pandemic economic recovery. This is a subject that Portland has returned to many times and is the reason why gas exploration (if not oil) must continue, because the alternative is a world where coal usage rockets every time gas prices become too high. Only a regular supply of new gas over the next 10 years will stop these price spikes taking place.

Let’s go back to oil though and where all of this leaves the price in 2022. The likely development is that oil prices will significantly increase in the first six months of this year, with supply continuing to be starved, whilst rebounding economies and hitherto users of gas, put significant pressure on oil demand.

Hopefully the gas crisis will have dissipated somewhat by Q3, as the American fracking industry responds to clamouring demand. This in turn should bring more crude to the market, as fracked gas goes hand in hand with fracked oil. Prices then should ease by Q4, although they will still end the year higher than today.

In numerical terms, we easily see oil topping $100 per barrel in the next six months, before settling at the $80 to $90 per barrel band by December. Only one thing can realistically stop this happening and that of course is Covid. You only have to see the impact of the Omicron strain to see the impact covid continues to have on oil markets. In the run-up to Christmas, oil prices fell by an incredible $10 per barrel as traders and analysts panicked about the possibility of further Covid-related lockdowns.

So in 2022, any new strain of the virus, a growing inefficacy of the vaccines available or a sudden increase in hospital patients (at a national level) could all bring about new lockdowns. That would bring oil prices crashing down. All of which rather leaves us between a rock and a hard place when it comes to what we wish for in 2022. Most of us would welcome an end to lockdowns, but we then have to accept that this will bring inevitable and unwelcome increases in the price of oil.

28 January 2022 | 23

27/01/2022 15:33

COMMENT

GREAT MINSTER GRUMBLES

Can Boris and his bus strategy survive?

Our Whitehall insider imagines what’s going on inside the minds of the mandarins at Great Minster House, home of the DfT It’s official. We have finally written to all of England’s local transport authorities to tell them there is only £1.4bn available to fund the Bus Service Improvement Plans.

And that’s £1.4bn over three years. With local transport authorities saying they need £7bn to deliver the aspirations set out in the National Bus Strategy it’s clear for all to see that the strategy is undeliverable, and to my mind is now irrelevant, less than a year after its publication. Writing in the previous edition of Passenger Transport, former transport minister Norman Baker set out a range of measures that ministers should take to promote the bus and facilitate growth in patronage. I don’t disagree with any of them. But unless and until the Treasury is willing to provide a great deal more financial support, I am afraid his fear that the National Bus Strategy will fizzle out will be realised. It probably already has been.

It’s going to be fascinating to see how this £1.4bn is allocated, and what criteria are used to reach the final decisions. I have a hunch that the Combined Authorities may lose out completely because they get funding from other pots that the other transport authorities don’t. I have no doubt that my bus colleagues will devise a set of criteria that ensures fairness and balance, but when the final decisions get to be taken by ministers, I wonder how much of that will go out the window and decisions will instead be influenced by good old fashioned pork barrel politics.

As I write some Conservative MPs are 24 | 28 January 2022 PT257p24-25.indd 24

complaining bitterly of threats of intimidation and blackmail by the Whips to try and persuade them not to write to Sir Graham Brady demanding a vote of no confidence in the prime minister. One MP has specifically said he was “threatened” that funding for a school in his constituency would be withdrawn. But this kind of behaviour has always been a fact of life in parliamentary life, hasn’t it? Promising MPs lots of funding for

“The strategy is undeliverable, and to my mind is now irrelevant”

local projects to fend off threats of rebellion and to buy loyalty is a tactic as old as the hills.

It’s just that these days it’s called “levelling up”!

When the £1.4bn finally gets allocated let’s see how much has gone to Conservative areas, how much has gone to “red wall” constituencies.

Cynical? Perhaps. Honest? Certainly!

Of course, with Covid restrictions now being lifted and a return to office life being encouraged we should see a renewed increase in public transport use. That will help, but I don’t think anybody expects this to be anywhere enough to ease the funding crunch that both bus and rail are experiencing. And with employers now seemingly more than happy to facilitate a mix of office and home working I just can’t see how patronage can ever recover to pre-pandemic levels unless, as Norman Baker rightly pointed out, ministers adopt policies which are overtly anti-motorist.

The chances of that are surely remote, at least any time soon - although I have heard it said that the Treasury is looking much more seriously at the options for road pricing, a policy that will surely have its day at some point, as I have repeatedly said.

With everything that’s going on politically, with the prime minister fighting for his political life, ministers are understandably a touch distracted. But what a carry-on! It’s been obvious for some time that No 10 was a pretty dysfunctional outfit but this “partygate” stuff takes it to a different level. By the time you read this Sue Gray may have submitted her report, and it may have been published and we may know the prime minister’s fate. Incidentally, I

www.passengertransport.co.uk

27/01/2022 15:36

heard the other day that Sue Gray started her civil service career here in the Department of Transport back in the mid-1980s, or thereabouts, and was a speech writer for ministers (as a civil servant not a special adviser).

Now she is a second permanent secretary in the Cabinet Office and ministers apparently go in fear of her. Perhaps there’s hope for me yet!

I’m reluctant to comment on the political shenanigans of the past few days and weeks, but I’ve got some simple observations on all of this.

First, when did you last go to a “work” event with 40 people where tables were laid out with booze and snacks?

Second, when the prime minister arrived at the event surely he would have seen it was a social gathering not a work event. Yet he stayed for 25 minutes so, along with everybody else at the event, he broke the rules regardless of what he thought it was for. And what “work” issues were being discussed? I’m not sure the rules at the time made a distinction between work and social meetings anyway.

Third, why did the prime minister need “advice” on whether he should have attended - we all had to make up our own minds about

www.passengertransport.co.uk

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the legitimacy of our actions, yet he needed advice. Umm. I think Sue Gray is in an invidious position.

As a civil servant it is odd, to say the least, that she seemingly has the power to bring down a prime minister so there must surely be a real prospect that her report will be more circumspect than many expect. But she will also not want to be seen to deliver a whitewash and be accused of a stitch up. That’s not her style anyway. So her report is bound, surely, to highlight failings in No 10 and to lay out the facts as to what actually happened. I would be amazed if some heads don’t roll as a result. But whether it delivers the killer blow against the prime minister is another matter, and those Conservative MPs who want to bring the prime minister down may not have the hard evidence they need to trigger a no confidence vote.

But if the polling evidence is to be believed

the wider electorate seems to have made up its collective mind that Boris Johnson should stand down.If he is still prime minister come the local elections on May 5 a large proportion of the electorate will have the chance to deliver its verdict on “partygate”.

That verdict may be very unpleasant for the Conservative Party and many hundreds of Conservative councillors may lose their seats.

But a party that has been in power for over a decade would expect to do badly in these local elections and if the result is not as bad as it could be, it is not impossible to see a scenario where the prime minister survives.

As I write the prime minister’s position remains very fragile. He’s clinging on by his fingertips. But could he yet become the Houdini of British politics? I have a hunch he might - and we might know his fate by the time you have read this.

“He’s clinging on by his fingertips. But could he yet become the Houdini of British politics?

I have a hunch he might”

28 January 2022 | 25

27/01/2022 15:36

CAREERS MANCHESTER RESHUFFLE

Stagecoach announces key team promotions APPOINTMENTS

Stagecoach Manchester has announced a number of new appointments and promotions.

Three of the four promoted employees came to Stagecoach through its graduate scheme, which aims to provide an entry into the bus industry for university graduates.

Zachary McAskill has been promoted into the role of operations manager at Hyde Road depot, the largest Stagecoach bus depot in the UK with 600 staff and 220 vehicles.

Previously an operations manager at the Ashton depot, 24-years old McAskill is now Hyde Road’s youngest operations manager on record.

Fellow former graduate trainee Gary Banks has succeeded McAskill as operations manager at Ashton

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depot. A masters graduate of the University of Liverpool, he joined Stagecoach in 2016. He has held several positions with the group at operations that include East Scotland, Stockport and Wigan.

Mark Mageean becomes the operator’s new commercial manager for Stagecoach Manchester. He also joined the Stagecoach graduate scheme in September 2009 and has since undertaken operations manager positions in a variety of locations such as Skegness, Middleton, Wigan and Manchester.

Michael Gaskell has also been promoted to operations manager at Wigan after 22 years in the business.

Joining as a part-time driver in January 2000, Gaskell finished his college studies and went on to become a full-time driver.

Over the 22 years, he has held various positions, including management roles at the Stockport and Sharston depots.

APPOINTMENTS TRANSPORT FOR WEST MIDLANDS Anne Shaw has been appointed as executive director of Transport for West Midlands (TfWM) having led the organisation on an interim basis for the past six months.

Shaw (pictured) was TfWM’s director of network resilience prior to her appointment to the interim role. She took on that role after Laura Shoaf was appointed interim chief executive of the West Midlands Combined Authority.

TfWM says Shaw brings vast experience working in the region’s transport sector and will be expected to see current major infrastructure projects through to completion as well as oversee delivery of a further £1.3bn of investment over the next five years.

In addition to her duties at TfWM, last year Shaw and Shoaf were chosen by the government as champions to lead on efforts to tackle violence against women and girls on public transport.

STAGECOACH YORKSHIRE Stagecoach has announced Phil Medlicott will retire from his role of managing director of Stagecoach Yorkshire next month. He will be succeeded in the role by Matt Kitchin.

Kitchin (pictured) joined Stagecoach Manchester as operations director in 2016. Prior to joining the Perth-based group, he worked in both commercial and operational roles with other transport operators. He will take up his new role on March 1. He will be responsible for over 1,100 staff and 400 buses at the operator.

26 | 28 January 2022 PT257p26-27.indd 26

TRANSPORT FOR THE NORTH North of England political and business leaders have approved the appointment of Lord Patrick McLoughlin as the next chair of the Transport for the North Partnership Board and Board.

McLoughlin (pictured) has had an extensive career in UK politics for more than 30 years, serving as the Member of Parliament for Derbyshire Dales between 1986 and 2019. His experience in government includes four years as secretary of state for transport between 2012 and 2016.

ABELLIO LONDON Abellio has announced Jon Eardley has succeeded Tony Wilson as managing director of its London bus operation.

Eardley (pictured) was previously engineering director of Abellio UK Bus, a position he held for five years. In 2019 he led the business to ‘earned recognition’ status with the Driver and Vehicle Standards Agency something he cites as one of his greatest achievements.

His career in the bus industry spans a number of operators across the country, with engineering stints in Staffordshire, Eastern Counties, Aberdeen, Yorkshire, and the Midlands, at both operational and managerial level.

Commenting on his new role, Eardley said: “My ambition is for Abellio London to continue to lead the way in terms of innovative delivery on safe, reliable, green bus transportation that is fit for the future.”

www.passengertransport.co.uk

27/01/2022 17:31

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27/01/2022 17:31

DIVERSIONS

Shapp’s big plan for quieter railways SoS promises a bonfire of train announcements Quieter train journeys are set to become the norm after transport secretary Grant Shapps announced the Department for Transport will remove repetitive and unnecessary onboard announcements on England’s trains.

Working closely with the Rail Delivery Group, passenger groups including Transport Focus, and train operators, the DfT will identify how the vast number of announcements can be cut or reduced.

Thank you!

THANK YOU VERY MUCH INDEED

To thank or not to thank?

Etiquette about thanking bus drivers appears to vary around the UK. In Cardiff and Bristol, there’s the famous expression

Joe Public?

The DfT’s announcement included a video starring Shapps as an irritated rail commuter. But aren’t there bigger things for the secretary of state to micro-manage at the moment? Just a thought...

of “Cheers, drive”. Elsewhere, a simple “thanks”, “thank you” or “cheers” seems to hit the spot, but it seems London, famous for its surly passengers (and drivers), is totally divided on the matter.

Earlier this month news website MyLondon quizzed its readers: “Do you thank the bus driver when you get off?” And the response were somewhat mixed.

“Yes every time,” insisted one.

“They are humans not robots.

It’s polite, kind and considerate, they have a tough job sometimes,” said another.

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28 | 28 January 2022 PT257p28.indd 28

EXPIRY DATE

IS BOURGEOIS ALL THAT HE SEEMS?

A GROUP MAD FOR ALL THINGS BENDY

Wholesome trainspotting TikTok-er Francis Bourgeois’s star continues to ascend, but some amateur internet sleuths have suggested all may not be what it seems - Bourgeois is actually called Luke Nicholson and he briefly worked as a fashion model.

So is it an act? Speculation led Bourgeois to release a video where he pleaded he had ditched his love of trains as a youth to fit in, but the Covid lockdown had allowed him to rekindle railway hobby.

“The shackles are off and I’m totally free,” he said.

“Trainspotters come in all shapes and sizes.”

It’s the end of an era... this weekend Cardiff Bus will withdraw its final bendy buses after 16 years of faithful service.

But what now for the fleet?

Kieron Jones, Russ Petty, Ben Gleeson, Michael Preston and Aaron Cartwright grew up in Greater Manchester and Yorkshire. All are still based in the north of England but decided to snap up one of Cardiff’s Scania OmniCitys in response to the demise of the type elsewhere.

“We decided to preserve this bus as it has always been a dream to own a bendy bus - they’re fairly rare now, so to own one is a dream come true,” said 20-year old Jones.

“The bus is also pretty similar to ones we grew up around in Greater Manchester.”

Why the Cardiff example?

“We had the idea several months ago when other companies began withdrawing their vehicles but unfortunately they were not well looked after so we took the decision to wait for something better,” added Jones.

High praise indeed for the engineering team at Cardiff Bus!

But others prefer not to thank the driver at all, “No,” said one person, explaining: “Because he is at the front end and the exit door is in the middle.” One shocked bus user added: “As a born and bred Londoner, I didn’t realise you had to until I got on buses outside of the capital.”

But some London bus drivers also shared their thoughts.

“No I don’t,” one former driver said. “I was a bus driver for four years and didn’t expect a thank you for doing my job.”

Fair enough!

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27/01/2022 16:07