Passenger Transport: November 4, 2022

ISSUE 276 4 NOVEMBER 2022

NEWS, VIEWS AND ANALYSIS FOR A SECTOR ON THE MOVE

Northern Powerhouse Rail to be scaled back?

Liz Truss pledged to build long-awaited scheme in full but new transport secretary Mark Harper has hinted at a return to a scaled-back version Reverting to a scaled back version of the Northern Powerhouse Rail project would be a “serious setback to levelling up”, campaigners warned this week.

Henri Murison, chief executive of the Northern Powerhouse Partnership lobby group, said: “It raises serious questions about their plans for growth, given that the north’s woeful transport infrastructure continues to weigh down our economy and hold back private investment.”

Murison was responding to reports that prime minister Rishi Sunak looks set to reverse the commitment made just weeks ago by his predecessor Liz Truss,

MADE FOR MERSEYSIDE

Alexander Dennis unveils next-generation model EURO BUS EXPO

One of the stars of this week’s Euro Bus Expo show at the NEC was Alexander Dennis’s new Enviro400FCEV hydrogen-fuel cell double decker. The vehicle (pictured) was the first for the Liverpool City Region Combined Authority, this model’s launch customer, which is introducing 20 of them on the 10A between St Helens and Liverpool.

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to build the original NPR scheme in full, including a new station in Bradford, and not the scaled-back version that had previously been proposed by Boris Johnson.

With the government trying to plug a £40bn hole in its budget, the new secretary for state for transport, Mark Harper, appeared to distance himself

“It raises serious questions about their plans for growth” Henri Murison

from Truss’s NPR commitment when he referred to “mistakes” made during her short-lived adminstration. Talking to Sky News, her hinted that he would revert to Johnson’s version of the scheme and said that the Department for Transport was now reviewing “all the options”.

Meanwhile, the DfT has said that the government remains committed to the HS2 rail project despite suggestions from levelling up secretary Michael Gove that this project could also be scaled back. His comments came amid growing concerns about the project’s mounting costs.

GOVE AND HS2: PAGE 4

NEWS

Mayors call for action on rail performance

05

‘Haul operators to the table,’ they urge

INSIDE TRACK

Bus demand grows 36% in spring quarter

14

Chris Cheek studies latest DfT bus stats

COMMENT

The mad ministerial merry-go-round

16

Norman Baker on the new team at the DfT

COMMENT

£10 penalty fare is recipe for disaster

18

Alex Warner sees trouble ahead

EVENTS

Euro Bus Expo show report

15

A welcome return to the Birmingham NEC

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03/11/2022 17:29

CONTENTS

PASSENGER TRANSPORT PO Box 5496, Westbury BA13 9BX 020 3950 8000 editorial@passengertransport.co.uk

Can Harper end the public transport permacrisis?

Collins Dictionary has named ‘permacrisis’ as its 2022 word of the year. The word describes the feeling of living through a period of war, inflation, and political instability. It “sums up just how truly awful 2022 has been for so many people”, Robert Jack said Alex Beecroft, head of Collins Learning.

Managing Editor Public transport certainly feels like it’s living in a permacrisis. Covid recovery, spiralling costs, crippling staff shortages, industrial action and huge investment challenges are all weighing on the minds of those who work in this sector.

The rail sector has spent decades stumbling from one review to another and it’s not clear what will happen with the latest one, which resulted in the Williams-Shapps Plan for Rail, four years after it began! Meanwhile, doubts are being raised over the scope of major infrastructure projects, such as HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail.

The bus sector finally won the recognition it deserves before Covid cruelly placed it on life support. Emergency Covid recovery funding has already been withdrawn in Scotland and the same could happen in England next spring. And it now looks impossible for the UK Government to deliver on its pledge to support the introduction of 4,000 zero-emission buses within the current parliament.

Government can’t make these problems go away but it does need to get a grip and offer some clear and consistent direction. Perhaps Mark Harper can be the secretary of state for transport who does that.

HAVE YOUR SAY Contact us with your news, views and opinion at: editorial@passengertransport.co.uk PASSENGER TRANSPORT editorial@passengertransport.co.uk forename.surname@ passengertransport.co.uk Telephone: 020 3950 8000 Managing Editor & Publisher Robert Jack Deputy Editor Andrew Garnett Contributing Writer Rhodri Clark Directors Chris Cheek, Andrew Garnett, Robert Jack OFFICE CONTACT DETAILS Passenger Transport Publishing Ltd PO Box 5496, Westbury BA13 9BX, UNITED KINGDOM Telephone (all enquiries): 020 3950 8000

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IN THIS ISSUE 20

HOW CAN BUSES SURVIVE AUSTERITY 2.0?

There won’t be much money for buses in the years ahead, but Robert Montgomery, the former managing director of Stagecoach UK Bus, argues the sector can live without it if the government is willing to be brave.

ORGANISATION Aircoach Airporter ALSA Alstom Arriva Merseyside Avanti West Coast City of Edinburgh Council CitySwift CILT Dews Coaches Edinburgh Trams GBRTT Govia Thameslink Railway Great British Railways HS2 Ltd Hull Trains LNER Lumo National Express National Express Group Network Rail Northern Rail Reading Buses RIA North RMT RSSA South Western Railway South Yorkshire MCA Stagecoach East Stagecoach Supertram Stephensons of Essex Thames Valley Buses TransPennine Express Transport for London Transport for Wales Rail Transport for West Midland Whippet Coaches WMCA

PAGE 7 7 8 5 7 5 10 13 8 7 10 9 5 6, 9 4 9 9 9 8 8 11 5 7 5 11 9 5 8 7 8 7 7 5 9 11 6 7 6

12

APP AIMS TO MAKE COMMUTING GREENER

22

IT’S TIME WE TALKED ABOUT TAXATION

25

ALL CHANGE! A NEW SET OF MINISTERS IS HERE

Iomob, a UK-Spanish technology start-up, has this week launched the WheelCoin for Business solution to enable accurate benchmarking and near real-time measurement of employee travel emissions.

We have heard a lot about taxes recently. Nick Richardson considers how this issue could have an affect on the future of public transport. He comments: “What this boils down to is the pressing need to reform taxation that affects travel behaviour”.

Our Whitehall insider imagines what’s going on inside the minds of the mandarins at Great Minster House, home of the Department for Transport.

“Something tells me that Huw Merriman is going to be a hard task master!”

REGULARS NEWS ENVIRONMENT INNOVATION & TECH INSIDE TRACK COMMENT CAREERS DIVERSIONS

04 12 13 14 16 26 28

4 November 2022 | 03

03/11/2022 17:56

NEWS ROUND-UP

Gove reveals doubts about HS2’s future

“We have got to make some decisions, which will be painful”

“But when we face the particular economic problems that we have at the moment, I’m sure that some capital spending will be cut.”

However, concerns are mounting about project costs.

According to an internal review seen by the Financial Times, the first phase of HS2 between London and the West Midlands is running “many billions” of pounds over its £40.3bn budget and the Treasury has asked for further potential cuts to the project.

The review, which was produced in June, said it was “very unlikely” that the £40.3bn price tag would be met. Although the first phase allowed for a contingency that would stretch the budget to £44.6bn, the report concluded there was only a 50% chance that would be enough.

The final cost was likely to be “many billions more than the reported estimate”. The report

also criticised HS2’s decision to continue to record costs in 2019 prices as this meant none of the figures reflected “what has been or is being paid”.

“In almost every area reviewed significant developments are planned in 2022/23 which impact on the estimates and risk,” the review added. Rising inflation was also proving a “significant and growing challenge”.

The project also faced “bids for money from contractors on a continual basis and significant and lengthy commercial discussions around them”.

The Treasury has asked management to identify potential cuts or “scope reductions” to the full project, according to the document. But it warned that shrinking HS2 further would hurt its “value for money” case.

The Financial Times said the review also highlighted shortcomings in the way the first phase was being managed.

It said two of the four consortia hired to oversee the work did not have “sufficient capacity and capability to manage all the various obligations placed upon them”.

The review admitted the consortia were “too large to effectively manage and control”.

scaled back.

Harper said that while the project remains within its overall budget of £44.6bn, costs were increasing alongside drawdowns from the contingency budget. HS2 Ltd has indicated that, if unmitigated, the final delivery cost is likely to exceed its target cost of £40.3bn.

To date, out of that target cost, £18.3bn has been spent, with an additional £1bn for land and property provisions. £10.6bn has been contracted and has not been spent. The remaining amount is not yet under contract. The target cost

does not include government-held contingency.

HS2 Ltd has drawn £1.5bn of its £5.6bn delegated contingency, an increase of £0.2bn since the last update, leaving about £4.0bn.

Key cost pressures are: An estimated £1.1bn (increase of £0.3bn since the last update) for potential additional Main Works Civils costs stemming largely from lower than planned productivity and additional design costs; A pressure of £0.4bn on the cost estimate for the HS2 Euston station.

A move to a smaller, less complex

and “more efficient” 10-platform design aims to cut costs; A pressure of £0.3bn (increase of £0.1bn since the last update) against HS2 Ltd’s budget for changes to Network Rail infrastructure at Euston and Old Oak Common; and A further £0.1bn of net cost pressures presenting on other parts of the programme.

Despite the cost concerns, in an interview with Sky News this week, Harper reiterated the government was committed to HS2 and delivering the project “on time and within budget”.

Project reportedly at risk of being scaled back, but the government has said it remains committed to the troubled high speed rail project HS2

The Department for Transport has said the government remains committed to the HS2 rail project despite suggestions from levellingup secretary Michael Gove that the project could be scaled back.

In an interview with Times Radio, Gove was asked about the likelihood of cuts to the project.

“I am sure everything will be reviewed,” he said. “I do think HS2 is a significant investment.”

However, a spokesperson for the DfT said the government was still committed to the project.

They said: “We’re committed to delivering HS2 as set out in the Integrated Rail Plan - on time, in a way that delivers value for taxpayers - and construction is underway and within budget.”

Gove laid some of the blame for HS2’s problems on the short-term administration of former prime minister Liz Truss. “As a result

EUSTON PLANS SCALED BACK

‘More efficient’ design aims to help cut costs BUDGET

Transport secretary Mark Harper has told MPs that concerns are mounting about costs associated with the first phase of the HS2 rail project between London and Birmingham. In his written periodic review of the project’s progress, he said economies are being sought and they have already seen plans for the new station at London Euston being 04 | 4 November 2022 PT276p04-05.indd 4

of different factors, including mistakes that were made at the mini-budget, we have got to make some decisions, which will be painful,” he said.

Gove acknowledged that some economies had been made on the project, such as last year’s decision to scrap the eastern leg of the route from Birmingham to Leeds.

He added: “I think long-term capital investment in making sure this country is better connected is a good thing. And ideally you don’t want to cut that long-term capital investment because it helps contribute to economic growth and greater opportunity.

www.passengertransport.co.uk

03/11/2022 17:10

“We do not accept that passengers in the north should be treated in this way”

Mayors call for action on rail performance ‘Haul operators to the table to sort out this mess,’ say mayors PERFORMANCE

The mayors of West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, Manchester, Liverpool and North of Tyne have called on the government to treat continued problems with the North of England’s rail network as an emergency.

The mayors held an emergency meeting last week after hundreds of services were cancelled in October by operators including TransPennine Express (TPE), Avanti West Coast (AWC) and Northern Rail.

Labour said TransPennine Express had cancelled more than 40 services on Tuesday and 60 on Wednesday last week, blaming staffing difficulties. Meanwhile, Avanti West Coast has come in for criticism over cancellations, delays, slashed timetables and a lack of Advance tickets.

They mayors have called on prime minister Rishi Sunak and transport secretary Mark Harper to “haul operators to the table to sort out this mess”.

In a joint statement, the mayors said thousands of last-minute cancellations were making “life miserable for people in the north, and cause serious damage to the economy”, but the government was “in a state of paralysis”.

They continued: “If this level of disruption was being experienced in other parts of the country, we believe action would already have been taken to improve matters.

We do not accept that passengers in the north should be treated in this way and just expected to put www.passengertransport.co.uk

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TPE cancelled a significant number of services last week

up with it. We won’t.”

West Yorkshire’s mayor Tracy Brabin, who called the meeting, said regional leaders wanted to “put on record we are sick to the back teeth of the situation, the shambles we find ourselves in”.

She said the mayors had three demands for government: the first being an urgent meeting to agree a long-term plan for transport in the north of England.

The second was for transport secretary Mark Harper to sit down with rail operators and the unions to reach an agreement on rest day working.

The third was for the government to put TransPennine Express on notice relating to its performance as its contract was up for renewal next year.

Former transport secretary Lord McLoughlin has also waded into the row. As chair of Transport for the North he last week called on the government to urgently intervene to help end the current poor levels of performance on the north’s rail network. “The current situation on the North’s rail network is simply unacceptable,”

he said.

In the middle of summer, 62% of Northern services arrived on time and only 54% of TPE services. Recent figures available to TfN show there’s been little improvement with 64% of Northern services arriving on time and only 57% of TPE services. In July, only 60% of Avanti (Euston to Manchester) services arrived on time, and despite moving to a one train per hour service in August, just 72% of Avanti (Euston to Manchester) services arrived on time last month.

TfN is calling for a ‘Rail Academy of the North’ to be set up to fast-track the training of new drivers to help address reported driver shortages.

The Department for Transport said it was keen to engage with the mayors. A spokesperson said: “The department has written to northern leaders inviting them to meet with the transport secretary as soon as possible so, together, we can provide the reliable service passengers across the region deserve.”

IN BRIEF SWR RESTORES SERVICES After two months with fewer trains and speed restrictions on the West of England Line between Salisbury and Exeter St Davids, Network Rail has announced services will return to normal from November 14. Speed restrictions of 40mph were brought in at locations near Tisbury, Gillingham and Axminster, as the clay-based track bed shrank as a result of the drought and record temperatures.

Since then, engineers have made good progress in restoring the track levels, helped by cooler temperatures and regular rain.

ELECTRIFICATION PROPOSAL The Railway Industry Association (RIA) North has published their vision outlining how the North’s railway should be electrified over the next three decades.

Schemes they have prioritised include Sheffield to Doncaster/ Moorthorpe; Manchester Victoria to Leeds via Bradford Interchange; Northallerton to Saltburn via Middlesborough; Manchester to Sheffield (Hope Valley); Leeds to Hull; and Carlisle to Newcastle.

ETCS ROLLOUT Govia Thameslink Railway has sent its first Class 387/1 Electrostar unit to be upgraded to ETCS in-cab signalling as part of the East Coast Digital Programme. Alstom will install the Atlas 3 ETCS system with static testing undertaken at its Litchurch Lane manufacturing site in Derby prior to dynamic testing at speeds of up to 110mph, on Network Rail’s RIDC Melton test track. The unit is set to return in July 2023, after which GTR will fit the remaining 28 Class 387/1 units at its in-house depot in Hornsey, north London.

4 November 2022 | 05

03/11/2022 17:10

NEWS ROUND-UP

Sprint completion leads to passenger benefits Journey times now up to 22% faster after first phase is finished BUS PRIORITY

Transport for West Midlands has revealed that bus journey times on two corridors upgraded with extensive bus priority measures as part of the Sprint Bus Rapid Transit project are now up to 22% quicker.

Data from 12,000 bus trips on the A45 between Sheldon and Birmingham city centre and the A34 between Walsall and the city centre during September have been compared with the same routes during the same month in 2019.

Before the Sprint works were completed, TfWM said reliability had been hampered by buses being caught in congestion, particularly in the peak hours. This meant journey times could fluctuate by more than 20 minutes.

However, with the completion

WEST MIDLANDS REVEALS PLANS FOR RAIL GROWTH 30-year strategy includes new cross-city tunnel GROWTH

The West Midlands Combined Authority has launched a public consultation into plans revised as a result of the pandemic for the growth and development of the local rail network over the next 30 years.

An updated draft of the West Midlands Rail Investment Strategy and it sets out several key ambitions including supporting the region’s 06 | 4 November 2022 PT276p06-07.indd 6

of the priority works, evening peak time variability on the X51 route between Birmingham and Walsall has reduced by 31% while there is a reduction of 35% in variability for the X1 and X2 routes from Birmingham to Sheldon in the south-east of the city.

Average morning rush hour journey times into Birmingham City Centre are now 15% quicker on the A34 and 22% quicker

on the A45. But the variability, which is the range of journey times - what TfWM describes as an indicator of service reliability was between 26% and 35% lower.

“The data shows that we’re already making a difference on the ground - saving people valuable time on their commute,” said West Midlands mayor Andy Street. “So with further timesaving measures on the way via

Sprint stops feature upgraded waiting facilities

recovery from Covid 19, contributing to local and national net-zero carbon targets, supporting the levelling up agenda and maximising the benefits of HS2.

The update takes account of huge changes as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, but it also sets out how passenger numbers and rail service frequencies are expected to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2026. It takes into account the establishment of Great British Railways and outlines how the network and infrastructure will need to be further developed to allow for additional growth.

Further aims are to encourage growth in rail freight and more

radical proposals for the next three decades, such as ambitious plans for a new rail tunnel under Birmingham city centre that would enable services to bypass capacity hotspots, connect the three city centre stations and improve frequencies.

Some of these plans include: A rolling programme of further electrification; Development of the Midlands Rail hub which will create capacity for new stations and services on both regional and local routes, such as on the Sutton Park line through northeast Birmingham and more services linking Birmingham and Coventry to Worcester and the east Midlands;

Phase Two, with the introduction of hydrogen buses along the route, we’re confident Sprint customers will enjoy an even better experience in the near future.”

Completion of Phase One in May allowed shuttle buses for the Birmingham 2022 Commonwealth Games to benefit from priority and ensure regular road users were less impacted by the additional traffic.

Consultation over Phase Two, which includes further bus priority measures on the A34 in Walsall and Sandwell and A45 in Solihull, as well as some smaller additional works in Birmingham, is due to take place once designs are completed, with construction commencing next year.

It will be part-funded by a £56m contribution from the City Region Sustainable Transport Settlement (CRSTS) awarded to the West Midlands Combined Authority last year (PT252).

For the second phase, particular attention is being paid to the design for the route through the Park Hall area of Walsall where earlier designs are being reviewed to preserve more roadside trees while improving priority.

How as London to Birmingham travellers move to HS2, the resulting spare capacity created on the West Coast Main Line could be used for improved local and regional services along the Birmingham, Coventry and Rugby corridors; Shuttle services on the line between Burton and Lichfield, calling at Alrewas; and The longer-term opening of the line between Lichfield and Walsall.

The draft strategy has been led by the West Midlands Rail Executive and developed with rail industry partners. Following the consultation, the final draft will be presented to the WMRE board for approval. www.passengertransport.co.uk

03/11/2022 17:10

“This is a sharp reminder of the reality of the current deregulated bus system”

Combined Authority secures axed routes Independents make inroads into Stagecoach network NETWORKS

New operators took over a significant number of local bus services in Cambridgeshire following Stagecoach East’s decision to withdraw 18 bus routes completely and reduce a further five significantly (PT274).

Stagecoach East announced its plans on September 20 and the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Combined Authority went out to urgent tender the following day after mayor Dr Nik Johnson launched an “urgent process” to save as many of the routes as possible.

Stagecoach will retain just three of the routes with a mixed bag of independent operators picking up the remainder of the work. Big winners from the process are Dews Coaches which gains contracts for eight routes;

BUS STATION DESTROYED

Police suspect arson attack on Slough landmark FACILITIES

Slough’s highly regarded bus station, which opened in 2011 as part of a multi-million pound regeneration scheme, was severely damaged last weekend as a result of what police suspect was an arson attack.

It is understood that Reading Buses subsidiary Thames Valley Buses, which used the bus station as a outstation, had a number of vehicles destroyed by the blaze.

Investigations are continuing. www.passengertransport.co.uk

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Stephensons of Essex with four routes; and long-standing local independent Whippet with three routes. Tech consultancy turned bus operator Vectare also gains two routes, adding to its bus operations in Essex, the East Midlands and East of England.

The combined authority said 17 of the 18 services cut by Stagecoach, along with all of the five reduced services, will be covered following the tender process. The remaining service has also been covered apart from the section between Chatteris and March. Discussions with operators continue.

The routes will require some of the £1.7m set aside by the Combined Authority for subsidies to operators to keep them running. Currently, the total cost is expected to be about £1.25m.

As well as working to ensure vital services continue between October and the end of March, the combined authority says

it is working to put in place a sustainable and affordable bus network from April 2023 onwards.

That process will start with a refreshed Bus Strategy.

The draft Bus Strategy is due to be presented to the combined authority’s transport and infrastructure committee in November alongside a refreshed Bus Service Improvement Plan and case for government funding.

But Johnson warned the current model was not a sustainable one for “a vital public service” and the cuts were “a sharp reminder of the reality of the current deregulated bus system”. “We’re looking beyond these immediate challenges for a better future for buses,” he said. “We will continue to make the case to government for fair funding.”

Meanwhile, the combined authority has also confirmed it is continuing to develop the business case for a franchised bus network in the region.

IN BRIEF FIRST’S IRISH ACQUISITION Aircoach, FirstGroup’s Irish operation, has acquired Northern Ireland-based Airporter from the McKeever family. The company operates scheduled services connecting Derry/ Londonderry with Belfast’s two airports. The acquisition expands First’s prescence on the island of Ireland and increases its routes to seven with a new route connecting the north west with Dublin City Centre via Belfast International and Dublin Airport.

READING’S FLU JABS Reading Buses has announced that staff who are under 50 and who aren’t eligible for a free NHS vaccination are being offered flu jabs as part of the operator’s ‘staying safe and healthy’ company value. Every employee signing up is being sent a voucher which can be used to book and pay for a vaccination at a convenient time. “We see this as another example of our investment in and care for our employees,” said HR director Caroline Anscombe.

‘TAP AND GO’ LAUNCH Arriva launched ‘tap and go’ capped contactless payments in the Liverpool City Region last weekend. Single fares cost £2 with this capped to £4.60 for an unlimited number of journeys in a day or capped to £17 for unlimited journeys in a week.

Arriva says the new flat fare structure will remove the need for passengers to state their destination on boarding and that will significantly reduce boarding times. “The Tap and Go scheme makes bus journeys simpler,” said Richard Hoare, Arriva’s commercial director - north.

4 November 2022 | 07

03/11/2022 17:10

NEWS ROUND-UP

Strikes help recovery at National Express Group reports strong growth at UK express coach operations FINANCIALS

National Express Group has reported strong revenue growth up 33% year-on-year and 5% ahead of 2019 levels - amid a strong recovery in its fortunes.

In a trading update for the period between July 1 and September 30, the group said its UK operations were seeing a growing patronage at the UK express coach operation which had driven a 30% increase in revenues for the UK operation.

The group said coach load factor was up nearly 20 percentage points year on year to 78% (eight percentage points ahead of 2019) and yield was up 21% versus 2019.

CILT LIFTS LID ON DRIVER SHORTAGE Survey reveals over 75% of businesses short staffed RECRUITMENT

A new report by the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport has published findings from a recent industry survey on the current driver shortage.

Organised by the Institute’s passenger transport and logistics benchmarking clubs, LogMark and BusMark, the aim of the survey was to encourage collaboration and debate across the transport, logistics and supply chain sector to tackle the ongoing recruitment crisis. The survey looks at both the movement of goods and people.

More than three quarters 08 | 4 November 2022 PT276p08-09.indd 8

“Our ability to react quickly to events means that we were able to provide more services during rail strikes, and we were proud to play a part in supporting the Metropolitan Police during the Queen’s funeral,” said the group.

“On several of our core UK intercity corridors, we are now seeing demand well in excess of 2019.”

Meanwhile, the West Midlands bus business continues to improve and is now running at around 90% of 2019 levels and up 24% year-on-year. The German rail business delivered another quarter of strong growth, with revenue up 63% year on year, in constant currency, largely reflecting contract awards of two new services at the start of the year.

The Spanish-based ALSA business delivered another strong quarter, with revenue up 35%

year-on-year and 20% ahead of 2019 levels. NEG said growth had been strong at the long haul operations where revenue grew by 53% and passenger journeys were up 42% year-on-year. The Morocco operation continued to deliver strong growth.

In North America revenue grew 11% year on year in the period. The Shuttle and Transit businesses made further progress in the quarter, with revenue up 21% and 7% respectively. Shuttle revenue is now ahead of 2019 levels and the North American business has taken steps to resolve driver shortage issues.

“I am pleased to report sustained momentum across the group and another period of operational progress and revenue growth,” commented chief executive Ignacio Garat.

of respondents declared their organisation is currently experiencing a driver shortage and more than three quarters also said they have increased pay as a method to helping deal with the current driver shortage.

The survey also revealed that the south east of England was experiencing the highest level of driver shortage, with East Midlands and London second and third.

CILT carried out a similar survey in 2015, and the findings have been compared in the 2022 CILT Driver Shortage Crisis Report. Comparing the data, the average age of a driver has increased by four years, from age 47 in 2015 to 51 in 2022.

The overwhelming majority (nearly 80%) of respondents cited ‘unsociable hours’ as the main

factor behind the shortage. This was followed by a lack of European staff and issues around the increasing age of drivers.

Respondents were asked if they thought the government was doing enough to highlight and deal with the shortage, to which 92% of respondents said no. This is an increase from 2015 results.

“Through our research we hope to add clarity to the situation by providing an opportunity for organisations to discuss where, why and how the driver shortage is having the most impact, said CILT chief executive Sharon Kindleysides. “For the first time, we have brought together two of our leading benchmarking clubs to fully understand the driver shortage across all modes of transport.

SUPERTRAM TO BE ‘NATIONALISED’ Stagecoach to lose its final rail contract in 2024 OWNERSHIP

The South Yorkshire Mayoral Combined Authority has announced it will not renew Stagecoach’s contract to operate the Supertram light rail network when the present contract ends in March 2024.

Instead operation will pass to a new publicly-owned arms-length operator in a move that mirrors the arrangements introduced in the West Midlands for the West Midlands Metro system. The plan forms part of the region’s wider ambitions to upgrade Supertram, as part of a fully integrated public transport network.

“Supertram has been part of South Yorkshire’s fabric for nearly 30 years,” said South Yorkshire mayor Oliver Coppard. “In the next 30 years, it will play a critical role in helping us reach our net zero goal. Now, I am pleased to be able to say that it will do so as a publicly-owned, publicly operated venture.

“Full public control of Supertram is an exciting new chapter for our tram network. It will help us to develop a long-term, integrated approach that fits with our wider plans for buses, rail, walking and cycling across South Yorkshire.”

SYMCA recently secured funding worth £100m to modernise parts of the system, including track and infrastructure improvements and better facilities for passengers.

The Supertram system was opened in stages between 1994 and 1995 and it was initially operated by South Yorkshire Supertram Ltd, a whollyowned subsidiary company of South Yorkshire PTE. Passenger projections never matched reality and continued losses led to a decision in 1996 to privatise the operation and maintenance of the system with Stagecoach awarded a concession in December 1997. www.passengertransport.co.uk

03/11/2022 17:10

‘No legislation but rail reform can continue’

OPEN ACCESS HAS SPURRED ON EAST COAST GROWTH

GBRTT looks at options for reform outside legislation

OPEN ACCESS

RAIL REFORM

Although it would seem plans to legislate for the creation of Great British Railways are on the back burner for now at least, an online seminar by RAIL magazine last week heard that the Great British Railways Transition Team (GBRTT) continues to work on reforms in certain key areas.

Speaking before incoming prime minister Rishi Sunak’s reshuffle that saw the appointment of Mark Harper as transport secretary, Stewart FoxMills, GBRTT’s fares, ticketing and retail programme director, suggested legislation was not necessary to implement reform in areas like ticketing.

MULTI-MODAL OPPORTUNITY? Ticket reforms could lead to multi-modal offer INTEGRATION

Reforms to the rail ticketing system could lead to a scheme that facilitates multi-modal ticketing across the country, according to Stewart Fox-Mills, the Great British Railways Transition Team’s (GBRTT) fares, ticketing and retail programme director.

Speaking at an online seminar hosted by RAIL magazine, he said it was important that those in the rail industry were aware of this once in a lifetime opportunity.

“We’ve got to think of it as a stepping stone to a far more multimodal transport system,” he said. www.passengertransport.co.uk

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“There’s a hell of a lot we can do without legislation”

reform and we’ll work with the wider industry to do that and to get the relevant endorsement from the government.”

Fox-Mills said that what really mattered was the passenger experience and the net cost to the taxpayer. “That’s what rail reform and the rail fares and ticketing programme is here to do,” he added.

However, he admitted there was still a lot to do that area, noting that it had been a problematic area before the pandemic. “It’s now even more imperative,” Fox-Mills added. “The railway is too complicated to buy... it’s too expensive, it’s inefficient and it’s outdated. When consumers were celebrating about rail reform, the only part that resonated with them was fares, ticketing and retail reforms.”

“Whereas we’ve got a lot to do in rail - and that’s the starting point - we’ve got to be conscious and integrate into other public transport modes.

That’s got to be essential. That’s got to be good for the railway, the overall transport system and the consumer.”

He said the role of the guiding mind with GBRTT was to bring the sector together and offer a more consistant customer proposition and speed up the rollout and adoption of innovations. “To do this we need to have a very strong collaboration,” added Fox-Mills. “We’ve started, but there’s a lot more to do.”

Also speaking was former London transport commissioner Mike Brown in his new role as chair of the Rail Safety and Standards Board.

He welcomed Fox-Mills’ plans for ticketing reforms but warned about

building complex new systems when off-the-shelf alternatives were already available.

“I got hugely frustrated in London because the [model] of Oyster and contactless was hugely repeated beyond the boundaries of London mostly because central government - whatever the colour they were hated every London mayor that ever existed, no matter whether it was Ken Livingstone, Boris Johnson or Sadiq Khan. They didn’t like the fact that things were invented in London it’s far from perfect, but if you’ve got a model that works, let’s not go and reinvent it all over the place.

“I could sell the ticketing promise of London to cities around the world and I did with our partners Cubic. We didn’t sell it to any other part of the UK. That is bonkers.”

“The focus of the [government’s decison] was on the legislation,” he said. “That, in terms of a lot of domestic priorities, is not a priority for the government right now. There’s a hell of a lot we can do without legislation and indeed are doing without legislation.”

Fox-Mills said that Harper’s shortlived predecessor AnneMarie Trevelyan wanted to understand the finer detail of reform but she was supportive.

“Legislation has not gone - it was delayed,” he added. “We’ll see as these unprecedented times settle down exactly what that means.

“We’ve got to get on with rail

‘Halo effect’ benefitting all intercity operators Open access operators have played a key role in growing rail patronage on the East Coast Main Line and that growth is continuing despite the impact of the pandemic, according to Martijn Gilbert, the recently appointed managing director of Hull Trains and Lumo, First’s open access rail operations.

“The East Coast has been in growth ever since the first open access operations started 22 years ago,” Gilbert told an online seminar on fares and ticketing hosted by RAIL magazine. “In the year [Lumo] has been operating, LNER has also seen growth. The stats show LNER is the fastest recovering operator... they’ve got growth and that’s in addition to a new operator in ourselves on the route.”

Gilbert said Lumo offered “very clear and transparent” fares to passengers and this had resulted in average load factors of 86% with the London to Edinburgh operation expected to carry its millionth customer this month.

He continued: “In the most recent Civil Aviation Authority statistics versus ORR stats, rail’s share of the Edinburgh to London market has grown to 66% - it was 33% in the corresponding quarter prior to Covid.

That number alone shows modal shift to rail - not just our trains as there’s a halo effect.”

“The East Coast has been in growth ever since the first open access operations started” 4 November 2022 | 09

03/11/2022 17:10

NEWS ROUND-UP

McDonald Road tram stop on Leith Walk, one of the new stops on the extension

On-time, 0n-budget, ready for energisation

Overhead lines on part of Edinburgh’s tram extention to Newhaven will be energised this month as scheme nears completion. Rhodri Clark reports LIGHT RAIL

Overhead power lines are due to be energised this month on the first section of the Edinburgh tram extension to Leith and Newhaven.

The project is on time and within its 2019 budget, despite impacts from the Covid-19 pandemic.

Successful completion could add impetus to the plans to extend the tram system southwards to serve the Edinburgh Royal Infirmary and other locations.

The new overhead lines from St Andrew Square to Elm Row are due to be energised at the end of the month, followed by 10 | 4 November 2022 PT276p10-11.indd 10

the overhead lines on the rest of the extension in December.

Trams will start running along the route in early 2023 for testing and commissioning of the new infrastructure, ahead of the planned opening in the spring.

Construction of the first section

“The project remains on track for delivery on time and within budget” Councillor Scott Arthur

of Edinburgh’s tramway, from the city centre to the airport, was hit by major cost increases and delays. However, the city council learned lessons from the mistakes to reduce the risks of problems arising on the 2.9-mile Newhaven extension.

Councillor Scott Arthur, transport and environment convener at the City of Edinburgh Council, said: “Trams to Newhaven is fast-approaching completion, with track now in the ground between the city centre and Newhaven and preparations underway to begin testing the

new line at the start of next year.

It’s thanks to robust, strategic planning by the project team that, despite the challenges of the last few years, the project remains on track for delivery on time and within budget.

“Lessons learned from the first tram project, as well as best practice drawn from other major infrastructure schemes around the world, have been central to this approach. I remain committed to the future expansion of the tram line to serve communities across the city, and the experience of the first and second phases of the tram project will be key to getting this right.

“Once complete, Trams to Newhaven will offer a clean, sustainable and reliable transport link between the centre and north of the city. This is exactly the kind of progress needed if we are to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2030, as well as tackling congestion and air pollution.”

Construction of the Newhaven extension began in November 2019. Paul Lawrence, the council’s executive director of place, said: “The project remains on target to commence operational service in spring 2023 and to be delivered within the £207.3m budget agreed by council in March 2019.”

The council drew on the expertise of key personnel with experience of light rail projects elsewhere in the British Isles and further afield. One practical result of learning the lessons from the first section was to adopt traffic management plans that provided the contractor with expanded sites, to ensure that works continued in the event that some aspects of the construction were temporarily delayed. There was also a strategy of opening up roads once only, with all works completed before the road surface was reinstated. www.passengertransport.co.uk

03/11/2022 17:11

£100 penalty fare is recipe for disaster. Pages 18

TfW reveals financial impact of strike action TOCs losing revenue because of strikes and the cost of living crisis RAIL FINANCES

Transport for Wales Rail has provided an insight into the financial impact on Train Operating Companies of the on-going rail strikes and the cost of living crisis.

Although the unions are not in dispute with TfW Rail, each day of strike action by RMT members who work for Network Rail closes almost all of Network Rail’s Wales and Borders lines. Most TfW Rail trains are unable to operate, although on the devolved Core Valley Lines a reduced service operates on RMT strike days.

TfW Rail’s board was informed at its September meeting that passenger revenue, passenger journeys and passenger km were all below budget in Period 5, which ran from July 24 to August 20.

“The primary driver of this

RESPONSE URGED TO MENAI BRIDGE CLOSURE Pressure mounts for public transport boost CLOSURES

Pressure is mounting on the Welsh Government to improve public transport between Anglesey and Gwynedd, after the emergency closure of the Menai Suspension Bridge.

There are only two roads between Anglesey and the mainland. A weight restriction was imposed on the suspension bridge, designed by www.passengertransport.co.uk

PT276p10-11.indd 11

result was the operational impact of industrial action undertaken by Network Rail and neighbouring TOC staff within the period, with a circa -£0.95m variance to budget created as a result,” minutes of the meeting reveal.

“Underlying performance fell away from budget during the period with a weakening economy and the rising cost-of-living crisis driving an estimated -£0.45m variance to budget.”

Last week, Network Rail and

The main Cardiff Central gateline last year

Thomas Telford, in June. Buses had to divert via the Britannia Bridge.

Timetables were amended for the additional journey time, with some reductions in service.

At 14.00 on Friday October 21 the suspension bridge was completely closed without warning, after the structure was found to be in worse condition than previously thought.

The bridge is not expected to reopen to vehicles until next year. A pedestrian route has been reopened.

There has been severe traffic congestion on the Britannia Bridge, where there is only one lanein each direction. The lower deck of the bridge has a single-track railway,

three TOCs told rugby fans not to attempt to travel by train to the Wales v New Zealand rugby match in Cardiff on November 5 because of a strike affecting Network Rail. TfW Rail and other TOCs will miss out on the revenue which is usually generated by up to 35,000 fans travelling by train into and out of Cardiff on rugby international days.

Although TfW Rail is unable to operate most of its trains on RMT strike days, it experiences higher demand than usual on days when Aslef members are on strike at several English TOCs, including Great Western Railway, which ordinarily provides most of the train capacity between Swansea and Newport.

TfW Rail board members were informed that on July 30 TfW Rail had enhanced its Shrewsbury-Birmingham service for the first Saturday of the Commonwealth Games. “There were no West Midlands services

on the corridor because of the Aslef strike.”

Weak revenue protection is noticeable on many TOCs, with tickets commonly being unchecked on trains or at gatelines. In August, TfW Rail’s board challenged the TOC to do more in response to increased levels of ticketless travel. It also said there was a risk the figures were understated and agreed that a survey of ticketless travel was needed.

TfW is implementing a revenue protection strategy. This focused on the Cardiff-Manchester route in Period 6, building on the lessons learned from a pilot phase in period 4. A second phase of the strategy was due to launch in period 7 on North Wales and borders routes. Future phases will roll out the approach to all reservable TfW services.

In September, TfW Rail set up a cross-functional task and finish group to identify options to accelerate the increase in gateline staffing hours. The target for 2022/23 is that gatelines should be staffed for 70% of the hours when trains are operating. The target for 2023/24 is 75%.

alongside a walking route which is permanently closed to the public.

In the Senedd, Rhun ap Iowerth, the island’s MS, said various urgent measures were needed to deal with the situation, including “how to get people out of their cars - more trains stopping in more stations, more buses, encouraging more use of park and rides, shuttle buses and so on”.

He also asked: “Can the path near the railway line on the Britannia Bridge be used for some purpose?

That’s something I’ve raised in the past.”

Most trains which use the Britannia Bridge omit all stations on Anglesey except for the terminus at Holyhead.

There are gaps of two hours or more between services at Llanfairpwll and other local stations, where park and ride could be an option if more services called there.

The Transport Action Network campaign called for a “quick and effective” response to the emergency on the Menai Strait bridges. Paula Renzel, TAN’s Welsh roads and climate campaigner, said: “Better options for people to walk, cycle, car share and use public transport need to be implemented immediately.

Novel solutions such as temporary bus priority measures and more bus and rail services could all help alleviate the strain on the road.”

4 November 2022 | 11

03/11/2022 17:11

ENVIRONMENT

App targets commuter CO2 WheelCoin for Business app offers incentives to employees to make sustainable transport choices Iomob a UK-Spanish technology start-up, has this week launched WheelCoin for Business to enable accurate benchmarking and near real-time measurement of employee travel emissions.

Up to 40% of a company’s carbon emissions can be from employee travel. But data used to benchmark employee travel emissions or measure carbon reduction travel initiatives is often anecdotal, using infrequent sample employee surveys or hard to capture information from expenses or travel agents.

WheelCoin for Business seeks to change this. The WheelCoin app automatically detects sustainable modes of travel used by employees as they commute or travel for work and offers rewards for choosing sustainable modes.

The app will help companies

12 | 4 November 2022 PT276p12-13.indd 12

reduce indirect carbon emissions and better meet Scope 3 carbon reduction reporting goals.

“Business travel and commuting are a major source of carbon emissions for organisations throughout the UK, if they want to get serious on tackling emissions, WheelCoin provides the missing link which will for the first time, accurately record travel data and simultaneously incentivise and reward greener journeys”, said Adrian Ulisse, chief revenue officer at Iomob.

“At Iomob, we have always believed that simply off-setting carbon emissions from travel is a cop-out, instead we believe we can really change travel behaviour.

That’s why we developed WheelCoin to reduce carbon at source, it’s simple to use, affordable to implement and its available to start using from app stores today.”

WheelCoin for Business helps firms with their net zero plan. It allows easy and regular environmental, social, and governance (ESG) reporting so that employers can chart progress and view month-by-month comparisons as they encourage and gamify their employees to use greener and more active mobility.

Employees are incentivised to travel more sustainably by earning WheelCoin tokens on their green travel choices including walking, cycling, scooters, bus, underground, tram and train.

They can then redeem their WheelCoin tokens for sustainable mobility offers inside the app.

ZERO EMISSION BUSES

TRANSLINK DEAL Wrightbus to supply 100 battery electric buses

GREEN GLASGOW

Open top fleet will be one of the world’s greenest

ELECTRIC VEHICLES

ELECTRIC VEHICLES

Translink has welcomed the Department for Infrastructure’s announcement of £88m funding for 100 new zero emission buses and EV charging infrastructure and says the investment will be transformational in delivering a zero emission transport future for Northern Ireland.

The new battery electric buses will be supplied by local manufacturer Wrightbus and will be a mix of single-deck and double-deck vehicles. They will enter service by summer 2024.

City Sightseeing Glasgow has announced it will launch a full fleet of brand new electric open top buses, making it one of the world’s greenest tours.

The 10 new electric buses will make Glasgow the first ever City Sightseeing operator to operate a full fleet of electric vehicles.

The vehicles are a £4.5m investment and includes funding from the Scottish Government.

NCT ORDERS FIRST ELECTRICS £34m investment in electric transition ELECTRIC VEHICLES

Nottingham’s historic Trent Bridge Bus Garage, once home to horse drawn trams, now has a new zero carbon future with council-owned Nottingham City Transport ordering its first electric single deck buses and appointing Zenobe Energy as the delivery partner for the electrification of 78 buses.

Zenobe, a leading EV fleet and battery storage specialist, will supply the charging infrastructure to the garage.

Pelican Bus & Coach will next year deliver the first 12 fully zero emission Yutong electric buses to join the NCT fleet.

This £34m project is being supported with £15.2m from the Department for Transport’s Zero Emission Bus Regional Areas (ZEBRA) Fund.

Top-ups each take less than 10 minutes

PANTOGRAPH BUS CHARGING Technology is topping up buses on all-electric 132 CHARGING

Pantograph bus charging providing high-power top-ups is now in operation at Bexleyheath bus garage. It is the first time this technology has been used in London and is being used to power the all-electric route 132. The buses, which are conventionally charged overnight, receive a high-power current through the pantograph multiple times throughout the day for a power boost. Top-ups each take less than 10 minutes.

www.passengertransport.co.uk

03/11/2022 17:13

INNOVATION & TECHNOLOGY

CitySwift closes 5m Euro funding round New product announcements and a new visual identity DATA AND AI

CitySwift, the Galway-based leader in data and artificial intelligence for the sector, announced the closure last month of its Series A funding round of 5m Euro, bringing total funding to date to 8.5m Euro.

Led by Act Venture Capital with all existing investors following including Declan Ryan’s Irelandia Investments, Mike McGearty, former CEO of CarTrawler, Enterprise Ireland and the Western Development Commission, the round will fast-track expansion plans to help the public transport industry build resilience against ongoing issues like fuel hikes, driver shortages, funding uncertainty and Covid-19 recovery Brian O’Rourke, CitySwift

co-founder and CEO commented: “This new era of CitySwift is one where we are focused on preparing our partners for a greener, cleaner future of mobility, by matching supply and demand across their networks now. CitySwift strongly believes the future is bright for public transport, and Mobility Intelligence is the key that will unlock attractive, efficient, and green public transport across cities globally.

“Over the past decade, we have seen a significant shift in the way the world moves due to compounding crises such as climate change and the Covid-19 pandemic. Cities worldwide have become more congested,

travel patterns have changed, the cost of living has increased and sustainability is now a key issue of the political agenda.

These shifts have presented us with an exciting opportunity.

He added: “The public transport industry must rethink its traditional ways of operating and shift its focus from supply to demand in order to optimise networks for the future - and data is what will unlock these efficient and optimised networks. Private operators and public authorities require data-enriched insights to inform them on how to best adapt and operate their networks to provide more efficient, reliable and sustainable services.”

“Mobility Intelligence is the key that will unlock attractive, efficient, and green public transport across cities globally” Brian O’Rourke, CitySwift

PAY-AS-YOU-GO WITH MOBILE POPULAR ON TUBE Use of mobile devices higher than pre-pandemic TICKETING

TOP OF THE APPS Intercity operator LNER has been awarded the ‘App of the Year’ prize at the UK Business Tech Awards 2022. Judges praised LNER for the creativity and implementation of the project creating the app, alongside the improvements to the platform based on consumer research and insight. www.passengertransport.co.uk

PT276p12-13.indd 13

More people are using contactless via a mobile phone or smart watch to travel on the London Underground than they were prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, new analysis by Transport for London has revealed.

The new figures show that in a four-week period from the end of July to late August 2022, around 485,000 journeys a day were being made on the Tube using a mobile device. This

CitySwift has meanwhile revealed new product announcements alongside a new visual identity and website.

The new identity will take the company into its next phase as the world’s first “Mobility Intelligence as a Service” platform, blending the power of data and public transport to prepare transport networks everywhere for the future of mobility.

The new suite of products includes CitySwift’s Evolve module that delivers scenario planning for AI-powered bus timetabling, and movement pattern simulation for accurately matching frequency with demand.

The company has also released the Discover offering, a range of dashboards catered to different pain points across transport organisations. These dashboards, which are already driving a massive spike in usage across CitySwift’s existing client base, include driver performance for punctuality insights and driver retention, and demand forecasting for understanding how service changes will impact passenger demand and revenue.

equates to around 35% of all Tube adult pay-as-you-go journeys made using contactless or around 25% of all adult pay-as-you-go journeys. Prior to the pandemic (around the end of January 2020), there were around 400,000 contactless journeys a day being made using a mobile phone or smart watch - which was just 26% of all pay-as-you-go with contactless journeys and around 16% of all Adult pay-as-you-go Tube journeys.

To encourage customers to avoid queueing and move from paper tickets to more convenient, smarter ticketing, Google Pay has recently begun a six month creative campaign across five of London’s most high profile Tube stations.

4 November 2022 | 13

03/11/2022 17:13

INSIDE TRACK QUARTERLY BUS STATISTICS

Bus demand grows by 36% in spring quarter April-June was the first full quarter in without Covid restrictions since 2019.

Bus use continued to recover across Great Britain but Wales lags behind Bus patronage recovered strongly during this year’s spring quarter, Chris Cheek but numbers Analyst remained well short of pre-Covid levels, according to the latest quarterly patronage statistics published by the Department for Transport.

They show that demand rose by more than a third during the quarter ended June 30 compared with last year. The 12 weeks represented the first full quarter in which all Covid restrictions had been lifted.

The DfT’s provisional seasonally adjusted estimates put total demand during the 12 weeks at 928.7 million passenger journeys, compared with 679.5 million in the same quarter in 2021, a rise of 36.7%.

However, the total remained 20.6% below the figure for 2019.

The figures show that demand rose in all areas, but the shortfall against 2019 varied widely between sectors.

Strongest growth was in Scotland on 43.6%, leaving demand 22.6% below 2019. The English Shires number grew by 37.1% but remained 21.7% short. In London, growth was 36.4%, leaving a shortfall of 17.6%. Patronage in the metropolitan areas grew by 34.5% but remained 24.0% short. Wales was some way behind on both counts, with growth of just 31.8% and a shortfall against 2019 of 34.9%.

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BUS PASSENGER JOURNEYS DURING SPRING QUARTER (APRIL-JUNE), 2019-2022 Source: Quarterly Bus Statistics (Q2, April-June 2022), DfT 1,168.9m

928.7m

679.5m

Rolling Year figures Figures for the 12 months to June 30 show total demand for bus services in Great Britain at 3,409.3 million passenger journeys, 55.2% higher than 2021, but still 28.3% down on 2019. The year does of course cover quarters in which Covid infection rates were high with restrictions and work-fromhome advice still in place.

The largest shortfall was again in Wales, 42.8% down on 2019, followed by Scotland on 31.2%, the Shires on 30.1%, PTE areas on 28.8% and London 26.0%.

Fares 210.0m

2019

2020

2021

Wales Scotland English Shires English Metropolitan areas London

“The growth in demand across the country during the April to June quarter is undoubtedly welcome news”

2022

The latest fare indices, also published by the DfT, show that in the year to June, bus fares rose by an average of 3.5% after taking account of inflation, compared with June 2021. Fare levels fell by 1.9% in Wales but rose everywhere else. The biggest increase was in London (5.2%), followed by the English Shires (3.5%), the PTE areas (2.0%) and Scotland (0.5%).

Interestingly, the DfT figures show that, outside London, fare levels were lower in real terms than in 2019. The gap was 5.9% in Wales, 3.8% in the metropolitan areas, 2.8% in Scotland and 0.1% in the English Shires. London fares were 2.5% higher than in 2019.

Comment The growth in demand across the country during the April to June quarter is undoubtedly welcome news, and there could be few who would not welcome the extra

quarter of a billion journeys taken during the 12 weeks.

That’s the good news: the bad news is that another quarter of a billion was still missing, and that is the number needed to get the market back to where it was in 2019. Not of course that the 2019 figure pulled up any trees, having fallen by more than 8% over the previous five years.

The figures for Wales are particularly worrying, with growth in the quarter well below that in other parts of the country and demand languishing at just over two-thirds of pre-Covid levels.

From demand levels of just over 23 million before the pandemic, the 2022 figure of 15.6 million looks pretty disastrous, especially as the drop has coincided with a 5.9% real-term fall in fare levels.

A third fewer passengers at lower fares looks like a recipe for real problems for both commercial operators and the Welsh Government, which at some point will have to find the money to keep the whole thing going.

Elsewhere, the position was dire enough, especially given the ongoing driver shortage and the explosion in costs.

In recent weeks, though, there have been some promising signs of further recovery, especially in England outside London. The DfT’s weekly Covid Transport Use statistics show that demand was averaging in the mid-80s during September and running at 88% for much of October. In London, demand reached the mid-80s in August, but fell back to the mid-70s in September before recovering to the mid-80s once again in mid-October.

Whether the recovery can be sustained in the face of ongoing staff shortages, strikes and the looming economic recession remains to be seen. But everybody will be crossing their fingers. www.passengertransport.co.uk

03/11/2022 17:24

“Public sector involvement - and a decided lack of buses for the major groups - extended across the show”

EURO BUS EXPO EVENTS

A welcome return to the NEC After an absence of three years, crowds flocked this week to the ‘big show’ - Euro Bus Expo

After the trials and tribulations of the last few years, there Andrew Garnett was an air of Deputy Editor anticipation this week as visitors flocked to Birmingham’s NEC to attend Euro Bus Expo, the first major industry show since 2019.

Kicking things off were Alexander Dennis, who lived up to the reputation as the anchor tenant of the show by revealing plans for a new range of zero-emission vehicles, including the much anticipated Enviro100EV midibus. While these vehicles remain artist impressions, the first hydrogenpowered Enviro400FCEV for the Liverpool City Region was on the stand and it pulled in the crowds.

And the theme of public sector involvement - and a decided lack of buses for the major groups - extended across the show. ADL had competition for the X-factor prize from Spain’s Irizar. It displayed the first 20 trambus-style electric buses for GoAhead London, the bells and whistles of which were clearly influenced by current Transport for London.

Meanwhile, Pelican Bus & Coach showed off a new Yutong electric bus that is destined for the Transport for Wales TrawsCymru network.

What’s clear is how zero-emission buses now dominate the market and that extends to the retrofit of existing vehicles - Equipmake took the wraps off a New Routemaster that has been converted from hybrid to battery-electric operation.

Overall, it was a convivial atmosphere, and while the NEC’s food and beverage tariff remain as extortionate as ever, it was good to be back amongst industry friends! www.passengertransport.co.uk

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The interior of the Irizar reflected current TfL thinking about making buses more attractive

Irizar wowed the crowds with the first of 20 ‘ie tram’ electric buses for London. These opportunity-charged buses will enter service later this year.

An electric revolution for TrawsCymru

Equipmake revealed a fully electric conversion of a New Routemaster vehicle

Mellor revealed its Sigma range has now secured over 100 orders

The bright yet sumptuous interior of the Enviro400FCEV destined for the Liverpool City Region

4 November 2022 | 15

03/11/2022 17:24

COMMENT

NORMAN BAKER

The mad ministerial merry-go-round

In the last three months we have had three transport secretaries.

And the latest incumbent is my former colleague, Mark Harper

Another week, another prime minister, another transport secretary and another lot of new junior transport ministers. Perhaps Passenger Transport should turn into a weekly publication so we can keep up with the bewildering rollercoaster of changes.

So it’s goodbye Anne-Marie Trevelyan. We barely got to know you. Indeed, I have just googled your name to check the spelling and you come up as international development secretary. How many incarnations ago was that?

As for Grant Shapps, he must have been dead chuffed to have been brought back from the wilderness to become home secretary, only to have the prize snatched from him six days later - the shortest tenure in history. A pity, as actually I think that was quite a good appointment.

And the shortest tenure in history as PM for Liz Truss (remember her?) - 45 days to P45. You are the weakest link. Goodbye.

This really is no way to run a government.

We have now had five prime ministers in six years, four chancellors in four months, three transport secretaries in three... and a partridge in a pear tree.

Every time a new minister arrives, a good deal of time has to be devoted to bringing him or her up to speed, sometimes even educating them from scratch. It is not safe to assume anything.

I recall in week one of the coalition hearing Philip Hammond, the new transport secretary, demanded to know why trains could not stop at level crossings to let cars through rather than the other way around.

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Mark Harper

“I always found him to be friendly, straight-talking and competent”

And while all this day-one briefing is going on, the department will be effectively on autopilot.

How can the captain steer the ship when they do not even know where the wheel is?

The constant churn of ministers inevitably results in less good government than if they are allowed a decent period in the same department. The churn is not new - by the time I had completed my three and a half years as a transport minister in the autumn of 2013, I was on my third secretary of state and was the only ministerial survivor from May 2010. But it has got a lot worse since the end of the coalition.

Nor is the civil service immune from churn.

By autumn 2013, I was also on my fourth socalled permanent secretary and often found myself knowing rather more than the reshuffled officials who were supposed to be briefing me.

Often I ended up briefing them.

Incidentally, when a minister loses their job or resigns, they receive a redundancy payment which currently stands at £16,876 and which they can keep, provided they are not reinstated within three weeks. So cheques all around for Grant Shapps, Dominic Raab, Michael Gove and the rest, all now back in government - a nice little mini-break paid for by the taxpayer.

Shapps, to be fair, is donating half to charity.

And at least the three-week rule means no fat cheque for the ghastly Suella Braverman who was out of office for just six days.

I understand the bill for such payments this year is around £700,000 and rising, a figure swelled by the mass resignations of about 50 ministers to force Boris Johnson out.

So now we have Mark Harper as transport secretary. Actually, I like Mark. He and I were ministers together in the Home Office and while we had quite divergent views in the most challenging of coalition departments, I always found him to be friendly, straight-talking and competent.

Elected to the Commons in 2005, he was handed a challenging role in the coalition when he was made No2 to the Lib Dem deputy prime minister Nick Clegg. Mark played it straight and managed to win the trust of the Lib Dems without compromising his Conservative values.

He walked that tightrope with some aplomb.

After his time at the Home Office and a spell at the Department for Work and Pensions, he was made chief whip after the 2015 election before being sacked by Theresa May (remember her?). He stood in the 2019 www.passengertransport.co.uk

03/11/2022 16:08

“Our country cannot stand still when it comes to building high quality infrastructure”Mark Harper Tory leadership contest but scored, I think, only 10 votes. When Covid arrived, he strongly advocated looser controls than those imposed by his government.

So he was out of ministerial office for around six years before becoming the surprise appointment as the latest transport secretary.

Mark is, I think, a principled politician. At the Home Office when he was immigration minister, an issue arose about the immigration status of his home cleaner and Mark promptly resigned. In my view, it was an unintentional minor infringement and he could have ridden it out, but he thought it wrong to try.

He was also one of those who showed distaste for the unconstitutional and unethical behaviour of Boris Johnson and sent a letter of no confidence to Graham Brady.

What can we discern from his approach to transport? Well not much, frankly. We do know he is strongly in favour of HS2, stating on his blog that it was “a momentous moment” the day construction began, and adding that, “our country cannot stand still when it comes to building high-quality infrastructure.”

That suggests that he may well fight to resist any paring back of capital projects identified for culling by the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt.

In his own Forest of Dean constituency, commenting for Gloucester Live on the problems on the A40 and A48, he said: “Clearly there is a role for public transport and if we can get more people using the train that would be great but ultimately it’s about making sure the

traffic flows which means keeping pressure on highways bodies to make sure they all work together.”

It is encouraging that he mentioned public transport here, or am I reading too much into this?

Interestingly, he faces an immediate public transport issue in his own backyard. Local bus operator Stagecoach announced last month that it was withdrawing six Forest of Dean bus routes this month, with further cuts to follow in Gloucester, Cheltenham and Cirencester.

Stagecoach blames the aftermath of the pandemic and driver shortages. These are doubtless good reasons, but I just wonder whether they would have announced those cuts if they had known the MP most affected was to be the transport secretary. I see that Gloucestershire County Council has “taken the very serious decision to report Stagecoach to the Traffic Commissioner” over the cuts.

I cannot see what good that will do.

The rest of the ministerial team has also been reshuffled. I hope Kevin Foster, who was actually shaping up to be a reasonable rail minister, enjoyed his 15 minutes of the red box.

The good news is that Huw Merriman has been appointed minister of state, the next rung down from secretary of state. Now Huw does understand transport and will not need to be taken through the idiot’s guide for new ministers, or not at least in terms of policy.

He has impressed as chair of the Transport Select Committee and it will be interesting

SECRETARIES OF STATE FOR TRANSPORT SINCE MAY 2010 1,409 days 1,105 days

1,140 days

520 days 326 days 49 days Philip Hammond 12 May 2010 14 Oct 2011

Justine Greening 14 Oct 2011 4 Sept 2012

www.passengertransport.co.uk

PT276p16-17.indd 17

Patrick McLoughlin 4 Sept 2012 14 July 2016

Chris Grayling 14 July 2016 24 July 2019

Grant Shapps 24 July 2019 6 Sept 2022

Anne-Marie Trevelyan 6 Sept 2022 25 Oct 2022

to see how much free rein he is given. His appointment does of course mean that there is now a vacancy for a new chair of the committee.

Under the rules of the House, Huw will have to be replaced by another Conservative MP. I cannot say that there are very many obviously good candidates.

In addition to Huw, there is Jesse Norman who has already done a tour d’horizon of government departments, having been a minister in the Foreign Office, in the Treasury, in BEIS (the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy) and served as Paymaster General. Oh, he has been at the Department for Transport before as well between 2017 and 2019. Like so many others in government, he is an Old Etonian. He put this prevalence down to Eton’s “ethos” of public service, which is a novel argument.

After Eton, again like so many others in the present government, he went into banking. He has written a number of books, including Breaking The Habits Of A Lifetime and After Euclid.

Then there is Richard Holden, the MP for North West Durham, very much in the red wall and sitting on a very small majority. He is 37 and apart from four years as a waiter in his late teens, he does not seem to have had a job outside Tory politics.

In addition to a great deal of time spent in Conservative Central Office, he was employed as a special adviser first to Chris “Failing” Grayling and then to ex-fireplace salesman Gavin Williamson. Personally, I think I would keep those roles off my CV. Completing the present pack is the seemingly permanent fixture of Charlotte Vere, although unhelpfully with changed responsibilities.

But then again elevation to the Lords is for life, so perhaps it is not surprising she is still there.

So there we have it. The prime minister keeps talking about stability - it is his new buzzword. Is it too much to hope that we might now actually get some stability in terms of ministerial positions?

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Norman Baker served as transport minister from May 2010 until October 2013. He was Lib Dem MP for Lewes between 1997 and 2015.

4 November 2022 | 17

03/11/2022 16:08

COMMENT

ALEX WARNER

£100 penalty fare is recipe for disaster

The rail industry should have got its house in order first before increasing penalty fares fivefold. Front line employees will suffer “I’ll kill you. I’ll rip your f***ing head off.”

These were the words of Michael Lucas just before he punched Colin Spicer, who was carrying out gateline duties at Wigan Wallgate, causing multiple facial injuries, including a broken jaw and fractures to his eye socket.

Principally, because of this reason and instances such as this, I think that the decision by the Department for Transport to increase penalty fares from £20 to £100 is a recipe for disaster.

An assault of any nature is, of course, abhorrent, but let’s reflect on what it must have been to be in Spicer’s shoes. In his late 50s, probably with one eye on retirement, he most likely was working on a very basic wage on a zero-hours contract and was off work for four months after the incident, with the RMT union raising £4,500 to compensate him for any money he might have lost during his absence from work. He now speaks with a lisp, nerves in his teeth and face are beyond repair and he struggles to eat properly.

Incidents such as this aren’t uncommon and this has been the case for decades. I recall nearly 30 years ago dealing with a similar assault as a duty station manager for Swiss Cottage on the Jubilee line. I’ll never forget the sheer panic of a ticket seller at Ruislip Gardens calling me when I was working in the BTP Control Room, as he was bound, gagged and locked in the strongroom in his booking office during an armed raid. Railway employees have been murdered in terrorist attacks in the UK, but I’ve not yet heard of an instance of a fatal assault 18 | 4 November 2022 PT276p18-19.indd 18

before. Frankly, it’s a matter of time.

The threat of violence shouldn’t, of course, be a reason to give up on trying to enforce revenue protection across our railway. In the incident involving Colin Spicer, staff were refusing to replace the £70 pass that Michael Lucas had lost earlier in the day. However, the challenge we have is that society is increasingly violent. We all know that drugs are more prevalent than ever and with it all the baggage around guns, knives and disproportionate and violent reactions to everyday situations, such as being challenged by authority (to show a valid ticket). For all the money in the world, I’ll be honest, I wouldn’t work on the gateline at a UK railway station these days. I’m sorry but it’s just how I feel.

Unfortunately, and I hate to say ‘I told you so’, the UK rail industry hasn’t helped itself and we are now in a position of having to get back control around fraudulent travel.

Covid didn’t help the situation in that, for fairly obvious reasons, ticket inspections were non-existent. However, we’ve been slow to restore these and therefore a generation of fare evaders is growing up seeing it as an audacious insult to be expected to buy a ticket, let alone be challenged to prove they have done so.

It is as if it is the ‘right’ of anyone to travel on the railway, irrespective of whether they have paid their fare. I see it among youths living, in particular, on ‘branch lines’ such as mine to Shepperton, where many stations are ungated and ticket checks are infrequent. For the Shepperton line, read many others across outlying parts of London, those sleepy cul-desac routes that are busy as far as Zone 4 but then dwindle into obscurity, rarely, if ever, to be visited by management, revenue protection officers or British Transport Police. Only the very honest youngster (or son of a transport professional…) would go to the trouble of buying a short hop ticket on our line.

I don’t think it is unreasonable for customers to speculate as to whether revenue protection officers even exist in some companies nowadays, their visibility is so low. I remember on London Underground in the 1990s, you’d be hard pushed in a week not to come across one of those imposing inspectors with their bright yellow lined hats; experienced, welltrained folk (including on aspects of criminal law as well as railway Byelaws) exuding gravitas and specialist expertise. They were regularly supported by undercover, plain-clothed officers, with assistance from the police in bringing prosecutions to bear. I cannot recall when I last saw an inspector on the Tube.

Part of the problem is that sometimes when I do see revenue protection teams across the UK rail network, their uniform has been so dumbed down they are not particularly visible and they don’t suggest an air of authority.

The loss of credibility among ticket inspection teams hasn’t helped the situation.

Spicer was an employee of Carlisle Support Services, an excellent organisation and, though an outsourced supplier, the robustness of their revenue protection outstrips much of that provided directly by the train operating companies. That’s probably why poor Spicer www.passengertransport.co.uk

03/11/2022 16:02

“I’ll be honest, I wouldn’t work on the gateline at a UK railway station these days” suffered, because he was making a visible effort to enforce regulations. However, it doesn’t take a genius to realise that even if a ticket gate is staffed, the chances of the person there being able to implement any kind of punitive measure, such as a penalty fare or report for prosecution, or even an excess fare transaction, is next to zero. It tends to be only the revenue protection inspectors that properly lay down the law, although Carlisle is one of the few whose staff are trained to do so.

Gates being wide open has propagated the situation. This creates a complete laissez-faire picture for customers and fare evaders “if the train company can’t be bothered to protect its revenue, is it really such a big deal if I bunk my fare” is a sentence that I’m sure has gone through the thought process of many a fraudulent customer. The optics of gaping wide open gates are shocking for the industry, suggesting a station with no control over who can or can’t enter the network and carefree, feeble, insipid management. The fact that all the revenue risk now sits with the Department for Transport means that there is practically no incentive for operators to manage revenue protection.

Worse still, if a fare evader is so used to seeing no controls in place, the moment they try and leave the network and see someone with the temerity to check their ticket, the more likely it is they will see it as some kind of out of the ordinary threat, rather than established behaviour. The problem is that if the railway is seen as incompetent on a whole range of measures, then this just breeds an intuitive feeling of contempt towards it and a sense it is “fair game”. I’m not suggesting that open gates and inept management across some parts of the rail network is an excuse for staff assaults, but over time, it does breed an environment that is generally less law-abiding and less safe for all.

The lack of control hasn’t been helped by the gradual decline over the years of school liaison teams. When I was growing up and indeed well into the first decade or so of my working career, British Rail, Railtrack, then Network Rail and every train company, had a very active cadre of employees who would trawl the local schools, not just warning of the hazards of playing on the railways but also cultivating an understanding among kids of how to behave more generally on the network. They created a positive sense of respect and rapport between www.passengertransport.co.uk

PT276p18-19.indd 19

them and railway employees. Their talks weren’t just about rules and regulations, but would also give interesting insights into the industry and their nearest station, as well as involve fascinating tours.

Coupled with the local station manager being more visible in the community and management per se, through posters, pamphlets and also pacing the network, the railway certainly wasn’t as faceless as it is today, social media excepted, of course. When out on the system, you would see not just British Transport Police officers but also railway staff that masqueraded as ‘old bill’, in the guise of accredited ‘Travel Safe’ or ‘Railway Enforcement Officers’ and if you didn’t see them, there would be lots of posters about, reminding you they did exist, it’s just they hadn’t turned up on your station or train yet.

In the days of franchise bidding, when companies had to conjure up ideas that were imaginative but not too unrealistic and therefore cost prohibitive or impossible to implement quickly, schemes such as these were all the rage and looked good in a tender. Those days of competitive bid processes or even TOCs having the freedom, financial resource or even encouragement to cultivate these initiatives have, in the main, disappeared.

Back to the penalty fare increase and there are other factors that make it such a flawed decision. Do we genuinely feel that the whole fares and ticketing system have been simplified such that it is so ‘black and white’ now whether a customer has knowingly purchased the wrong ticket, or in the case of not having a ticket at all been unable to buy one in the first place? There are so many anomalies, inconsistencies and loopholes in our fares structure and ticketing infrastructure, which are further worsened by the advent of online retailing. So too the situation is compounded by the sheer variety of distribution channels - faulty barcode readers, customers’ mobile phone batteries dying and there being no chargers on board so they can power up and show their tickets for inspection, tickets purchased for trains that don’t exist due to late notice cancellations and strikes, railcards not downloading onto devices and so on.

I wince every time I stand in the queue at a ticket machine and watch customers struggle, ever so slowly to navigate their transaction - which buttons to press and which ticket to

purchase, it’s torturous and you can see the confusion etched into their faces. Quite often, I intervene and do the pressing for them!

Finally, we have the cost of living crisis, likely to increase fare evasion and conflict that lead to staff assaults. Shoplifting has already begun to rise as folk struggle to put food on the table and travelling without a ticket is probably viewed as a less risky way of saving money.

Many who rightly abhor stealing from a shop don’t have the same attitude towards fare evasion and do not view it as ‘theft’. This may, of course, support the rationale to increase penalty fares. However, it will raise the stakes when railway staff have to challenge and enforce the policy, with ticketless travellers ratcheting up their emotions because they cannot pay the fine.

We can’t do anything, but my preference would be for the industry to get its house in order first. More visible posters explaining the need to purchase a ticket and greater assistance, including a simplified fares structure and retailing experience, are a start.

So too, proper and credible management of gatelines and visible, effective on-board teams, alongside rethinking the whole education piece around making customers realise that there is a cast iron expectation that they pay for their fare. Bringing back a greater and more interactive presence in schools and the community to educate the next generation and prevent a cultural malaise from materialising, is also important.

For poor Colin Spicer, though, effective sentencing is paramount and whilst the 28 months that his assailant received may seem strong, personally, I’d have thrown away the key. We need the authorities to be supporting the railway and indeed all frontline employees and we simply must make the public aware of the impact of incidences of this kind on staff, their lives and the railway as a whole, as well as the consequences not only for those who, in one extreme, commit the kind of offence that Colin suffered, but also those who habitually think nothing of bunking their fare.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Alex Warner has over 29 years’ experience in the transport sector, having held senior roles on a multi-modal basis across the sector

4 November 2022 | 19

03/11/2022 16:02

COMMENT

Defence and the statutory obligations of local authorities which will all take precedence over any future bus investment.

We have been here before in the 2010s when bus funding was slowly strangled and many local authorities shed their bus management resource whilst, in parallel, growing traffic congestion slowed bus speeds creating the double whammy of falling patronage and rising costs.

We all know the long-term prognosis for, particularly urban, bus operation in the UK is a sound one provided networks survive the short-term cash haemorrhages caused by Brexit and Covid.

As we speak networks are being culled, not just by commercial operators, but also by local authorities like Kent admitting that they can no longer afford to sustain many traditionally supported services.

The notion that transferring revenue risk to the public sector is a safe haven is well and truly blown when austerity strikes, hence my deep-seated scepticism about a franchised future in our big cities.

The bulk of urban bus operation in the UK is a commercial proposition delivered by private sector operators

Do we really need more government money?

How can buses survive Austerity 2.0?

There won’t be much money for buses in the years ahead, but the sector can live without it if the government is willing to be brave Ever since Boris Johnson announced Bus Back Better, England’s new National Bus Strategy, back in 2021 and boldly put £5bn on the Robert table, those of us who have Montgomery been in and around bus operation and government bus policy for the last 40 years held onto a certain scepticism and wondered if this money was real.

20 | 4 November 2022 PT276p20-21.indd 20

Our scepticism has not been dimmed by the constant redefinition of what that £5bn was actually for and even whether it was ever £5bn for buses at all. Now, it looks like our scepticism was justified.

With Boris gone and, following recent events, the dawning of Austerity 2.0, it is pretty clear that discretionary government spending will drop to virtually zero to allow for investment in the NHS, the Ministry of

I have been asking myself whether, fundamentally, the industry really needs more government money and, now that it is vanishing before our very eyes, considering how we move forward without it.

In reality, should we truly be bothered by its loss, or is there a better way of developing the UK’s bus networks?

Austerity 2.0 is a reality and there are bigger fish for the government to fry than subsidising £2 fares on bus networks for three months.

Aren’t short-term price promotions to stimulate demand following market shocks the responsibility of the private sector operators who will reap the benefit of any long-term growth in demand? If there isn’t any long term growth to achieve then it would be a complete waste of public money on a short-term giveaway!

Can the bus market be more commercially sustainable?

So, let’s be real, and accept that the bulk of urban bus operation in the UK is a commercial proposition delivered by private sector operators currently suffering from shocks www.passengertransport.co.uk

03/11/2022 16:14

“We do not need more public money but we do need political courage!” to demand from Covid and its aftermath and serious operational issues arising from a nationwide driver shortage driven by Brexit.

Yes, with political courage!

The real bridge between the current market status and the long-term prognosis of organic growth as a result of a major modal shift to save the planet from climate change is not about money but about political courage.

Supporting the UK bus industry to fulfil its destiny as the beating heart of a more environmentally friendly urban mobility ecosystem is not dependent on government funding but is overwhelmingly dependent on government courage.

We need political courage not public money We do not need more public money but we do need political courage!

Brave courageous urban traffic policies don’t cost anything but will deliver much cleaner, liveable cities and contribute to meeting climate change targets.

Those policies are unavoidable in the long run so taking the decisions now in the context of expenditure constraints makes a lot of sense. Failing to take them will see bus demand across the country continue to fall, services continue to be withdrawn, and strangled by traffic congestion and labour shortages when we all know the long term future in our cities will be based on mass transit and active travel, not private cars.

Clearly, the first two of the policy measures outlined above cannot happen overnight, but a clear early signal of a positive direction of travel on both would significantly boost confidence and investment in the future of the urban bus market, compensating for any disappointment in the absence of more material direct public financial support.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Robert Montgomery has worked in the bus industry in the UK, Ireland and the Middle East for 52 years, including as managing director of Stagecoach Group’s UK Bus Division. He is now working with partners on developing public/ private sector partnerships in urban areas, with digital technology suppliers and on business development projects in the Middle East.

www.passengertransport.co.uk

PT276p20-21.indd 21

THREE KEY POLICY OBJECTIVES The current government can achieve the win-win of saving funding on buses whilst boosting the future of the UK bus industry and the environment in the UK’s great cities through embracing three key policy initiatives right now:

1

Be brave on managing urban roads

The government must accept the inevitability of universal road pricing as the market for diesel and petrol evaporates and the income from fuel duty is lost.

Cover the revenue shortfall with a move to universal road pricing and give both Highways England and local authorities a statutory obligation to use road pricing to eliminate excess traffic and congestion, giving mass transit the ability to operate freely, faster and cheaper and deliver substantial modal shift and a significant uplift in revenue.

People question whether the commercial bus model is broken. It is not. It is simply crippled by traffic congestion which has had a far more detrimental and sustained effect on the bus industry than Covid.

Covid was just the straw that broke the camel’s back.

Let urban buses run freely, demand will rise, costs will fall and the commercial model will blossom.

This approach to actually managing the urban road environment should also be integrated with proper urban parking controls and pricing.

For that we need a brave and visionary secretary of state for transport.

2

Be brave on granting visas for foreign heavy vehicle drivers

The government must recognise the scale and nature of the deeply ingrained heavy vehicle driver shortage since both Brexit and Covid, and open up visas to foreign drivers. The current ongoing discussion on a trade agreement with India could sensibly contain visas for Indian truck and bus drivers to live and work in the UK, solving the debilitating driver shortage at a stroke whilst contributing to growth in the economy.

For over 12 months we have watched bus operators across the country living hand to mouth without enough drivers, and that problem will not be fixed without radical action. The last crisis of this sort in the late 2000’s was resolved by mass recruitment from Eastern Europe which reversed

post Brexit.

Putting artificial barriers on driver recruitment, where drivers are the very lifeblood of the business, is simply suicidal.

We need to diversify the source of drivers both domestically and internationally to deliver the exceptionally high levels of reliability required to gain and sustain mass modal shift.

Hearing managers proudly saying they have reduced lost mileage to 3% is truly scary when it should be less than 0.5%.

For that we need a brave and visionary home secretary.

3

Be brave on confronting the true financial cost of franchising

The government must ensure that any proposals by mayoral combined authorities to franchise urban bus networks are thoroughly and properly assessed against the alternative of radical public/ private sector partnerships. The statutory audit, required by the 2017 Bus Services Act, captures the full cost of any measures intended to be implemented after the transition to franchising.

Simply assessing the ‘business as usual’ status quo under franchising against the current model isn’t enough to ensure networks will be financially sustainable in the long run if the public are being promised cheaper fares and more services as a direct result of franchising.

The assessment should fully reflect the cost of moving away from commercially sustainable fares and service levels.

We should never forget that the Tyne and Wear Quality Contract proposal of 2013 was initially heralded as being cheaper than the status quo of commercial operation whilst providing lower fares and more services but, by 2015, it had wilted under proper scrutiny and assessment and was shown to be financially unsustainable.

The one certainty of a franchised network is a dramatic increase in cost as has been seen in London and is, therefore, incompatible with Austerity 2.0.

For that, we need a brave and visionary chancellor of the exchequer who will curb the financial folly of franchising.

4 November 2022 | 21

03/11/2022 16:14

COMMENT

NICK RICHARDSON

It’s time we talked about taxation

We have heard a lot about taxes and taxation recently, but could this issue have an affect on the future of public transport?

Balancing income and expenditure was clearly beyond the reach of the recent unlamented government which acted to increase the cost of just about everything, exacerbating what was already an uncomfortable time. For consumers, it will be devastating with energy bills multiplying, housing costs rising sharply and spiralling inflation. Poverty looms for many through a combination of housing poverty and energy poverty to which transport poverty could be added, all representing proportions of household spend that cannot be reasonably afforded. Those with low incomes will take a beating and transport plays its part.

We know that many train fares are beyond the reach of many potential users and that bus fares have increased at a rate faster than any measure of inflation. There are lots of reasons for this but the consequences can be severe for people who need to do everyday things such as getting to work. Even specific interventions in the market have limited effects so that fare caps and special offers are welcomed but shortlived. For regular farepayers, notably those in user groups that do not attract any discounts, transport is another cost to bear. Strains on disposable income are very unpopular and create significant hardship.

Relative vehicle costs Part of the trouble is the volatility of fuel prices because it affects transport operators’ costs and both the balance between car use 22 |4 November 2022 PT276p22-23.indd 22

and other options. The most vocal of car users constantly moan about rising fuel costs without any context of travel overall. Driving everywhere, though now costing much more than it did in recent years, often compares favourably with some passenger transport options. For many years we have observed governments attempting to put the lid on complaints about fuel prices by pretending that not increasing the levels of tax is doing everyone a favour. Our old friend the fuel duty escalator exists in name only because successive governments are frightened of upsetting anyone even if the climate emergency requires habits to change.

Fuel duties remain a good earner, £25.94 billion in 2021/22 (slightly above the average Fuel for aircraft is not subject to taxation

since 1999/2000) according to government statistics, an expected £26.2 billion in 2022/23 accounting for 2.7% of all tax revenue or £930 per household. The argument goes that fuel tax should be reduced as a proportion of the total price because it is an expensive commodity. It is costly but reducing the tax is not a logical response. Fuel use depends on the distance travelled and the type of vehicle so there is a strong behavioural slant which should dampen the habit of driving everywhere. We hear nothing of this from the government which cannot even bring itself to advise on ways to save energy or water when supplies of both have reached crisis point. In effect, for vehicle use the polluter pays which is hardly a new concept and people who drive more pay more. Should a discount be made available for car use, it is almost guaranteed that something similar wouldn’t be available to passenger transport users. In parallel, more rounds of cuts to local authority budgets hardly benefit transport when social care and education are in the mix.

Vehicle tax is paid on the basis of fuel type and CO2 emissions with alternative fuel cars (ie. not petrol or diesel) paying no tax. This is a bit odd because electric vehicles, while not emitting at point of use, generate emissions from the manufacturing process. Throwing vehicle tax revenue away seems an odd policy to pursue but that is exactly the proposed trajectory as more electric vehicles come onstream. Bizarrely, some local authorities allow free parking for electric vehicles as if they are salvation for all our transport problems.

On top of all this, two massive polluting sectors - maritime and aviation - are kept out of the debate because they are subject to international requirements and therefore beyond the remit of the UK government.

Apparently the fuel consumption of planes is measured in tonnes per mile, all conveniently overlooked.

Hypothecation There is a populist view that hypothecation has a role for road transport i.e. all road revenue should be spent on roads. The problem here is that it doesn’t work for any other sector e.g. people without children pay for education because that is how government works. Everyone pays for healthcare on the grounds that they might need it at some point www.passengertransport.co.uk

03/11/2022 17:57

IN ASSOCIATION WITH: www.ciltuk.org.uk Tel: 01536 740100 @ciltuk

but there isn’t a direct revenue stream to pay for it. For roads, another idea that emerged from the Truss school of incompetence was to promote road schemes, a sure-fire way of making the current problems worse at a time when local authorities have no cash to fix the potholes in the roads we have already. Now in the Sunak economy, we will see whether a coherent policy emerges or whether we will continue with the ‘infrastructure must be good’ theme at any cost.

Then we have the debate about where the money goes. The country has incurred massive costs due to the pandemic, some £376bn being paid in response to Covid-19. According to the National Audit Office, ‘Eat Out to Help Out’ cost £840m alone. It is clear that the ever-giving Magic Money Tree has been stretched. The latest chancellor has a massive job to reconcile possibly futile policies against ever-declining resources. It seems unlikely that railways, trams, coaches and buses will be seen as means through which economic growth can be achieved (apart from the unstoppable power of HS2) with their funding diverted to other portfolios. However, it’s difficult to pin this down to policy because there isn’t any clear transport policy. It continues to be a case of pleasing everyone all the time or at least not upsetting anyone as far as possible. Faced with climate change and lots of promises about decarbonisation, taxation is a useful means of managing demand across the transport sector and setting the direction for promoting mass transit over even greater car-dependency.

Time for reform What this boils down to is the pressing need to reform taxation that affects travel behaviour.

Call it what you will but it means road user charging in some form alongside investment in better passenger transport, not just infrastructure. This would provide evidence that we are serious about dealing with the climate emergency and could be equitable and transparent. It maintains the principle of the user paying and should substitute for vehicle taxation and/or fuel taxation. People who use more resources will pay more as they do currently but it also opens the door to instigate fairer costs for passenger transport providers and other essentials such as delivery and freight vehicles. Having a sensible debate rather than running away from the www.passengertransport.co.uk

PT276p22-23.indd 23

As chancellor Rishi Sunak was the face of Eat Out to Help Out - according to the National Audit office it cost £840m

“What this boils down to is the pressing need to reform taxation that affects travel behaviour” subject would be a start but with an unstable government of late with other priorities the prospects are not good. There has been constructive debate about road pricing in the transport planning community for many years so if government is minded to listen, then this could progress but if advice is ignored, problems will not go away. There is even scope for policy-led hypothecation in that road user revenue could help fund passenger transport.

Similarly, workplace parking levy revenue should be mobilised widely to support non-car options.

What is clear is that carrying on with transport taxation as it is represents a road to nowhere. There are viable options if only

government would pursue them. A nationwide approach would make sense but if central government won’t act then highway authorities could use the legislation they have already. While this could result in differential rates, it would be a positive move within the context of an area’s transport strategy and highlight the relationship between causes and effects. Real devolution with dedicated income streams would enable local areas to decide and provide what they need rather than waiting until the problems get deeper. Sorting out long term funding needs to be tackled now.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Nick Richardson is Technical Principal at transport consultancy Mott MacDonald, chair of CILT’s Bus and Coach Policy Group and a former chair of the Transport Planning Society. In addition, he has held a PCV licence for over 30 years.

4 November 2022 | 23

03/11/2022 17:57

COMMENT

WANT TO KNOW MORE? Visit Portland’s fuel forum page: portland-analytics.co.uk/fuel-forum

OIL MARKET REPORT

£

PORTLAND FUEL ANALYTICS - NOVEMBER 2022

Welcome to our 150th market report!

One would think that the subject matter would now be exhausted, but of course that is not how the fascinating energy sector works Hello and welcome to our 150th Oil Market Report.

Yes, you read that correctly - over a period spanning 12 years, we’ve actually James Spencer managed to churn out 150 Portland versions of this rubbish!

Back when we wrote our first report, the Portland team was young, original and the proud owners of cheap, shiny suits from Marks & Spencer. We still have the suits.

Our first report was in May 2010 and began with the immortal lines ‘Oil prices began to take a real hammering at the start of May’! We then went on to describe how a combination of EU economic woe and Iceland’s unpronounceable Eyjafjallajökull volcano eruption was suppressing demand (the latter because of the grounding of aviation fleets). Reading the report back today, it feels a fairly dry and technical description of market events, but there were still exciting subject cameos for underlying energy themes such as bullish demand from the Far East, pressures on refining and price volatility. Subjects that would all reappear many times in future articles.

Fifty reports later (June 2014) we were discussing the impact of currency on oil prices and how it was always an overlooked factor behind rising fuel costs in the UK. This is a subject that we have revisited on many occasions and was highly relevant this month, when the Pound crashed to hitherto 24 |4 November 2022 PT276p24-25.indd 24

uncharted rock-bottom levels. With the wholesale (Rotterdam) price of diesel around the $1,200 per tonne mark and with the exchange rate at 1.09 ($ - £), this gave a diesel price (pre-duty and VAT) of 93.06 pence per litre (ppl). Only six weeks earlier, the exchange rate had been riding at the relatively buoyant level of 1.20, which at the same wholesale level ($1,200) would have given a price of 84.53ppl a full 8.50ppl less. For a modest bus company buying 20,000 litres per week, this means they were incurring extra costs of £1,700 per week, simply because the Pound went into (selfinflicted) meltdown.

Report 100 (August 2018) covered the impossibly boring subject of Chinese tariffs being placed on imported US Liquified Natural Gas (LNG). This really was a humdinger of a report (not), but did deal once again with the theme of rampant Chinese fuel demand and with good reason. Back in 2010, when we started our market reports, Chinese oil demand was around nine million barrels

“There are now more fascinating (and at the moment, plain scary) energy talking points than at any point over the last 12 years”

per day (bpd), whereas by 2018, that figure was sitting at 12 million bpd - a cool increase in demand of 33% in eight years!

The August 2018 report also touched on a development that has become hugely significant today and that was the transportation of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) by ship. Back in 2018, gas transportation by sea was in its infancy, but was correctly seen by many as the answer to European over-reliance on Russian gas supplied by pipeline. Indeed the report quoted President Trump as saying (rather portentously) that “Germany is totally controlled by Russia”. As it transpired, the development of US seaborne LNG continued to grow despite the Chinese tariffs and actually stimulated an LNG capacity race involving America, the Middle East and Australia.

Thank goodness for that race, by the way without it, Europe would categorically not have adequate gas supplies to survive this winter.

Over the last 150 reports, we have covered everything from the wonders of the Port of Rotterdam, to the difficulties of recruiting young people into the industry. We’ve dissected and analysed the transportation of oil by pipeline, railcar and barge, plus we have predicted how much fuel would be needed for a holiday on the moon (this one really was complete nonsense). All in all, we have specifically covered crude oil exploration on five separate occasions, refining in six specific reports, along with sporting events such as the Olympics and World Cups (also six occasions).

Finally, the Middle Eastern oil industry (Saudi, Iran et al) has been covered more than any other topic, with seven specific market reports.

After so many years of writing, one would think that the subject matter would now be exhausted. But of course that is not how the most fascinating business sector in the world - the energy sector - works. Having reached the milestone of 150 reports, it’s fair to say that there are now more fascinating (and at the moment, plain scary) energy talking points than at any point over the last 12 years.

In fact, with all that is currently going on, we could probably file an oil or energy related piece every week. Don’t worry though, for everyone’s sanity, we’ll stick with the monthly version! At least for the next 150 reports... www.passengertransport.co.uk

03/11/2022 16:22

“Something tells me that Huw Merriman is going to be a hard task master!”

COMMENT

GREAT MINSTER GRUMBLES

All change! A new set of ministers is here Our Whitehall insider imagines what’s going on inside the minds of the mandarins at Great Minster House, home of the DfT

All change please, all change! Well, it’s not actually all change as we’ve managed to hold on to Baroness Vere and Katherine Fletcher as our parliamentary under-secretaries. But we have a new team at the top with Mark Harper as secretary of state and Jesse Norman and Huw Merriman as ministers of state.

But all this change is just a little dizzying so can I politely ask the Conservative Party to please stop this game of musical chairs and hold on to your leader for a short time - it would be much appreciated!

Actually, this is a good reshuffle for us in many respects. Jesse Norman has been a transport minister before, from June 2017 to November 2018, so is familiar with the issues and won’t take long to get back up to speed.

Welcome back Jesse! I wonder if he’ll notice if we’ve done or achieved much since he was last with us! Actually, that’s a bit harsh - a lot has happened since 2018. We’ve effectively renationalised the bus industry, carried out a major rail review (although not actually implemented it!) and steered the industry through the ravaging effects of the pandemic.

But I suspect Jesse may find many of the issues in his in-tray - depending on what policy portfolios he takes on - will look all too familiar!

We also welcome Huw Merriman as a minister of state. Now this is fun! As readers will know, Huw was the chair of the Transport Select Committee so he’ll have a very solid, one might even say in-depth, knowledge and understanding of the issues. Actually, from our www.passengertransport.co.uk

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perspective, is that a good thing? We aren’t used to having new ministers who are already very well informed of the transport policy agenda and issues, where all the problem trouble spots are, and so on. A minister who is actually very well informed. There’s going to be no pulling the wool over his eyes! This will never do! He will doubtless also have all the criticisms of this department from the myriad of witnesses who appeared before the Transport Select Committee over the last three years ringing in his ears! Something tells me that Huw Merriman is going to be a hard task master!

But I tell you what. I’m already looking forward to his first appearance before the Transport Select Committee when he is called to give evidence on his policy issues. Talk about turning the tables! He doubtless took great delight in putting transport ministers through their paces when they appeared before his committee. Now he’s going to have the same medicine dished out to him! This could be just too delicious for words! Actually, his experience as the committee chair will probably hold him in good stead, but it’s still going to be entertaining watching him explain away why this or that policy has gone wrong or isn’t delivering the results expected, why something has been delayed or gone badly over budget. The tables will be well and truly turned on Huw Merriman and I suspect Transport Committee members, especially the Labour ones, will take extra delight in giving him a hard time. Everyone will see the funny side of it too, I’m sure! If Huw Merriman gets the rail brief I wonder how he will explain away the delays to the implementation of the rail review!

Our new secretary of state, Mark Harper, doesn’t appear to have the slightest interest in transport and will be a completely unknown entity to the industry. But with Jesse Norman back, with Huw Merriman now installed as a minister, and with Baroness Vere still with us, Mark Harper does at least have a knowledgeable and experienced team to guide him through the turbulent waters of transport policy. Baroness Vere has been with us since April 2019. This almost makes her a transport veteran from a ministerial point of view!

She’s in danger of being a transport minister long enough that she will actually have to account for her own policy problems when they emerge - although she will be spared the impending bus finding crisis because she is handing the local transport brief to incoming transport minister Richard Holden, the ‘Red Wall’ MP for North West Durham. Lucky for Baroness Vere that she will not be in post with responsibility for buses when the service cut maelstrom that will hit next spring unless her successor can persuade the Treasury to cough up some more cash to put off the evil day.

Poor Anne-Marie Trevelyan and Keith Foster. They didn’t last long did they!? Still, hopefully things will now stabilise and we won’t have to suffer another reshuffle for some time. Fingers crossed!

4 November 2022 | 25

03/11/2022 16:22

CAREERS

PEOPLE STAGECOACH SOUTH WEST Stagecoach has announced the appointment of Peter Knight as managing director of its bus operation in the south west of England.

Knight (pictured) is currently managing director of Stagecoach Bluebird, running bus and coach services across the north east of Scotland. He will take over as MD of Stagecoach South West in December. He succeeds Mike Watson in the role who announced he would stand down in the summer.

Knight joined Stagecoach in 2010 as a graduate management trainee. He spent time working in a variety of operational management roles in Teesside, Warwickshire and Merseyside.

He then worked at Stagecoach’s Megabus business in Italy, before becoming operations director at Scottish Citylink, Stagecoach’s joint venture business in Scotland with ComfortDelGro. He has been managing director of Stagecoach Bluebird since 2019.

CPT (UK) The Confederation of Passenger Transport has announced the appointment of Paul Street as director of external affairs.

CPT says Street (pictured) brings to his new role a wealth of experience of the transport sector, with an extensive background in communications and public affairs roles. He has spent the past seven years at Network Rail, with his most recent role being the head of communications for the North West of England.

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FIRST TRAVEL SOLUTIONS First Travel Solutions has announced the appointment of Katie Johnson to the newly created role of business operations director.

Johnson (pictured) joins FTS from e.on Energy, where she worked for 14 years in senior operational and strategic roles including leading change, digital operations and customer services during a challenging time in the energy industry.

WEST OF ENGLAND COMBINED AUTHORITY Bus improvement manager Andy Strong has retired from the West of England Combined Authority (WECA) after a 49-year career.

Strong started out as a schedule trainee for London Transport.

After a spell working in retail management, he joined Avon County Council in 1988, moving on via South Gloucestershire Council and Bath & North East Somerset Council to help set up WECA’s transport operations team.

He helped write WECA’s Bus Service Improvement Plan which secured the second-highest indicative funding allocation in the country.

ADL RESHUFFLES CUSTOMER ROLES

New structure aims to better serve customers

Bus manufacturer Alexander Dennis has announced a number of internal promotions in its commercial team. The company says the changes aim to make ADL’s sales and marketing activity even more responsive to its customers and stakeholders and they follow the appointment of Martin West as group commercial director earlier this year.

Mat Lawrence has been promoted from his role as business development director to the newly formed role of fleet sales director. He will be responsible, with his team, for working with major group customers in the UK and internationally on how these large fleets can be transitioned to carbon neutrality in a long-term commercially viable way.

Charlie Miller is the company’s new retail sales director, having been promoted from the role of senior regional sales manager. In this new role Miller will be responsible, with his team, for working with independent operators in the UK and Ireland, assisting with their early steps into zero-emission vehicles and operation.

Meanwhile, Debbie McCreath has moved into the role of group marketing director. She succeeds Jacqueline Anderson and will lead the company’s marketing, communications and public affairs activity. McCreath joined the business as the political lobbying lead in the role of marketing communications and public affairs manager.

Commenting on the changes, West said: “I’m delighted to have been able to start to reshape the group commercial function in line with our vision for the business.”

STAGECOACH SOUTH Stagecoach South has appointed Colin Finch as engineering manager at Worthing depot, whilst Dave Nestor has been appointed as engineering manager at Portsmouth depot. In addition, two new assistant engineering managers have been appointed: Mickey Creed at the operator’s Chichester depot and Daniel Pearce at Worthing depot.

www.passengertransport.co.uk

03/11/2022 17:19

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To view the Job Description and to apply please visit www.greater.jobs

4 November 2022 | 27

03/11/2022 17:19

DIVERSIONS

Roger completes his 42 years on the buses Time to concentrate on the to-do list at home A bus and coach driver who clocked over two million miles during a 42-year career has completed his service and retired.

Roger Pudwell joined Oxford Bus Company on September 15, 1980, when Diana Ross was topping the charts and the average family home set you back £23,000.

A carpenter by trade, Roger only planned to be on the buses for 12 months at most. But 42 years after serving his first customers, and an

IT WAS ACCEPTABLE IN THE EIGHTIES The Museum of Transport Greater Manchester recently held a special ‘80’s Flashback’ event that recalled the transport scene of the region from four decades ago.

All told it was a great success with crowds flocking to enjoy some of the preserved vehicles of the era and there were special displays that recalled the sights and sounds of the decade. There was even the chance to munch on

The M40 and M25 expert!

estimated 20,000 journeys later, he has decided to hang up his keys.

Over the last 42 years he says he has witnessed plenty of changes in the industry but said the key qualities of a being a good bus driver

some very 1980s food and snacks!

Such was the success of the event that the museum highlighted its very special range of eighties souvenirs. And with Christmas coming, what better time than now to snap up some very special scatter cushions, including one design featuring the iconic Greater Manchester ‘M’ logo and, best of all, one modelled on the logo of the much missed Bee Line Buzz Company!

Check out the range at www.motgmshop.uk and grab an eighties bargain now!

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will always remain the same.

“We’re there to greet passengers with a smile, transport them to where they want to go and wish them a lovely day,” said the married father-of-two. “I’ve enjoyed every minute of it and would not change a thing.

“For 35 years, I’ve been driving The Airline service linking Oxford to Heathrow and Gatwick. I would challenge anyone claiming to have better knowledge of the southern stretch of the M40 and western side of the M25 than myself.”

So what are his plans for retirement? “I have a to-do list at home dating back more than four decades,” he laughed.

It’s an M’blem

Shane Richie - the voice of London Poppy Day

INDUSTRY PAYS TRIBUTE Ahead of Remembrance Day many operators have done their bit for the Royal British Legion’s Poppy Appeal by repainting vehicles in special Poppy liveries.

As ever, the capital pulled out all the stops with Transport for London recruiting actor, singer and presenter Shane Richie, to record a special station announcement which was played across many stations on London Poppy Day this week.

But we’re giving top marks to all transport operators who are offering veterans and those currently serving in the forces free travel to Remembrance events.

Nicely done!

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03/11/2022 17:38