Passenger Transport: February 10, 2023

A week to celebrate the workforce of the future

It’s National Apprenticeship Week and employers in the passenger transport sector have joined with ministers to highlight opportunities

Employers in the passenger transport sector have been using National Apprenticeship Week (February 6-12) to highlight the importance of apprenticeships to their business and the work they are doing to support them.

Transport ministers also got involved, with rail minister Huw Merriman celebrating confirmation from HS2 that it will take on a further 300 apprentices.

“With over 1,100 people already securing apprenticeships through HS2’s incredible programme, this project is once again demonstrating how its benefits go far beyond improving connectivity,” said Merriman.

“As HS2 heads towards its target of 2,000 apprenticeships, it’s playing a vital role in ensuring a career in rail is accessible to all, regardless of their background. I would urge anyone looking for a new challenge to consider one of these varied roles.”

Meanwhile, First Bus hosted roads and local transport minister Richard Holden at Reaseheath College in Nantwich, Cheshire, to see the progress of the UK’s first dedicated bus and coach engineering facility.

“Driving good skilled jobs across engineering and science across the country, and discovering new-age technologies to tackle pollution

go hand in hand,” said Holden.

“Apprenticeships are at the heart of the government’s mission to boost skills and employment, and it was brilliant to see the great work from First Bus with apprentices here in Reaseheath College, paving the way for exciting careers in a zero-emission bus future.”

To mark National Apprenticeship Week, this edition of Passenger Transport Week features a special eight-page section - Apprenticeships 2023 - highlighting the role of apprenticeships.

APPRENTICESHIPS 2023: PAGES 22-29

Investing in apprentices - the best advice is ‘just do it’

18 WHERE W ILL THE £2 FARE OFFER TAKE US?

The government’s ‘Get around for £2’ bus fares scheme isn’t perfect - but it does offer a big opportunity for bus operators. Could positive media coverage and good value, simple fares have a lasting impact on the perceptions of bus travel?

20

L EVELLING U P - W HAT ARE TRANSPORT’S GAINS?

Robert Jack

Managing Editor

“Just do it,” is the advice offered by more than one apprentice or former apprentice in the passenger transport sector when asked what they would say to others who are thinking of following their path. It’s clear that many employers in the sector are doing great work to equip apprentices with skills that will set them up for fantastic careers. And you can read more about this work in the special eight-page Apprenticeships 2023 section of this magazine (see pages 22-29), which we have produced to coincide with National Apprenticeship Week 2023 (February 6-12).

‘Just do it’ is also sound advice to any employers who are thinking about scaling up their own apprenticeship schemes. It’s easier said than done, of course. It takes time and resources to run high quality apprenticeship schemes. But the benefits can be enormous in terms of achieving a committed, productive and skilled workforce.

The passenger transport sector can’t afford not to invest in apprenticeships. The sector is struggling right now with the loss of passengers in the wake of the pandemic, higher costs and labour shortages. But if it really is to play a greater role in a climateconscious future then it will need a skilled workforce. And those skills are evolving fast - as demonstrated by the transition away from diesel buses to electric and hydrogen ones. We need to work today to create the highly-skilled workforce we will need tomorrow.

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The latest funding round for the high profile policy pledge has generated some criticism, but what will it do for transport? “Transport proposals are up against swimming pools and cultural facilities amongst other worthy causes,” writes Nick Richardson

32 WHAT W ILL HAPPEN TO OIL PRICES IN 2023?

Oil Market Report: What can we expect from oil prices over the next year? James Spencer thinks he knows. “Last year we once again correctly forecasted the direction that oil prices would take - so here are our predictions for the year ahead,” he writes.

33 I S THIS PRESSING ‘GO’ ON RAIL REFORM?

Great Minster Grumbles: Our Whitehall insider imagines what’s going on inside the minds of the mandarins at Great Minster House, home of the DfT. Rail reform is go! But wouldn’t it just be a lot easier to give everything to the Operator of Last Resort?

REGULARS

Harper plans to take politics out of railways

Transport secretary presses go on long-awaited plans for rail reform that will see Great British Railways strive to take the politics out of the sector

RAIL REFORM

Transport secretary Mark Harper this week confirmed that the government plans to go ahead with wide-ranging reforms of Britain’s railways, branding the status quo “financially unsustainable” and “broken” as he delivered the annual George Bradshaw address.

He said the government was committed to a major shake-up and that the current model was stuck in the past. Harper paid tribute to Keith Williams, author of the Williams Rail Review, and said that his “painstaking work” had identified the issues.

“A fragmented structure that quickly forgets the customer,” he said. “Decision making with too little accountability, but with too much centralisation. And a private sector rightly criticised for poor performance. An industry in ‘no man’s land’.”

A broken model

Ministers first announced plans for sweeping reforms of the rail industry in 2021, including the creation of a new public bodyGreat British Railways (GBR) - which would plan and deliver the network, but further details and the legislation to support the

sector had been historically unable to deliver major improvements at good value for the taxpayer.

creation of GBR were delayed.

Harper said the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic had made the industry’s problems far worse. With revenue around £125-175m lower each month, he claimed “any other industry would have collapsed years ago”.

Harper continued: “We have a broken model. Unable to adapt to customer needs and financially unsustainable. Left untreated, we will drive passengers away with poor performance, that will lead to fewer services, that will drive more passengers away and so on and so on.”

Reforms will happen Harper said only major reform could break the cycle of decline and that the Williams blueprint was the right place to start.

“We will create a more customer focussed and joined up railway,”

he said. “But we want to go further, I want to go further, and actually enhance the role of the private sector. Not just in running services but in maximising competition, innovation, and revenue growth right across the industry. Which the benefits of the private sector has delivered time and again.”

This would see the creation of GBR which Harper confirmed will be responsible for track and train, as well as revenue and cost. He said this would mean finally treating the railway as a whole system rather than the web of disparate interests that it’s become. GBR will be “wholeheartedly customerfocussed” and serve “as the single point of accountability for the performance of the railway”.

Harper also confirmed the GBR Transition Team will develop the guiding long-term strategy for rail which will be published later this year. He said he hoped this would provide strategic direction to the sector.

This is not British Rail However, Harper was at pains to point out that “this is not going to be Network Rail 2.0, nor a return

Harper said taxpayers should not foot rail’s bill

SUBSIDY

Transport secretary Mark Harper used the annual George Bradshaw address to acknowledge there was a lot of frustration in the industry and a “widespread desire to end the sense of drift”.

He said the railways were not fit for purpose at present and mired in industrial action, which Harper said let down both rail passengers and freight customers. He also said the

“Britain is yearning for a modern railway that meets the needs of the moment,” he said. “One reliable enough to be the seven-day-a-week engine for growth businesses expect. Nimble enough for post pandemic travel, whilst allowing more flexibility for freight and efficient enough when public spending is rightly scrutinised like never before. The railways need fundamental reform and that is what we will deliver.”

He claimed that British households were subsidising the rail network

to the tune of £1,000 per year and this was financially unsustainable, particularly at a time when many households were struggling with the cost-of-living crisis.

“It isn’t fair to continue asking taxpayers to foot the bill,” said Harper. “Most of them don’t regularly use the railways. Including plenty of my constituents in the Forest of Dean. But they find themselves subsidising an industry that delivers only 1.5% and 2% of all journeys that are taken by the public.”

He said rail disproportionately serves commuters in the south-east and that its funding comes at the

expense of other vital transport upgrades for other modes.

Harper continued: “At a time when sacrifices are being made across the economy we must be aware of the trade-offs when it comes to public spending and remind ourselves, as [former transport secretary] Patrick [McLoughlin] rightly said in his address [in 2020], that the Department for Transport isn’t the “Department for the Railways”.

However, Harper reiterated the government’s commitment to HS2, Northern Powerhouse Rail and East West Rail. “And that has the chancellor’s full support,” he added.

Harper: ‘We have a broken model’

‘END THE SENSE OF DRIFT’ IN SECTOR

to British Rail”. He said he wanted to take the politics out of rail and this was essential to create a truly commercially-led industry, “GBR will be an arm’s length body ensuring a balanced approach to both infrastructure and operations,” he said. “With both sides getting a seat at the table and both sides delivering an efficient, high performing railway for customers.”

Harper said the role of ministers was to provide strategic direction and accountability and they should not be poring over operational decisions. That will be left to industry experts in five regional GBR divisions working in partnership with regional bodies.

But he said he was keen to avoid a return to the old franchising model. He said new Passenger Service Contracts would aim to balance the right performance incentives with simple, commercially-driven targets. However, there would be no onesize fits all approach.

“In the past, we know some operators took on more financial risk than they could handle,” Harper added. “So, now that risk will sit where it is best managed and that includes with operators,

SUPPORT FOR REFORM PLANS

Industry and watchdog welcome confirmation

REACTION

Industry reaction to transport secretary Mark Harper’s plans to press ahead with rail reform was supportive. Andy Bagnall, chief executive of Rail Partners, said the announcement was a “needed push to reinvigorate rail reform, which is essential for passengers and freight customers as well as for the taxpayer and the wider economy”.

He continued: “We now need a

Has Harper got rail on the right track? Page 14

but only where it drives the best outcomes.”

He said the sector needed “a pragmatic partnership between state and industry, harnessing the necessary oversight of the state with the dynamism, innovation and efficiency of the private sector”. “This integrated model works, and not just with the railways,” Harper added. “That was how we achieved one of the quickest and most successful Covid vaccine rollouts.”

He concluded his address by confirming the government was pressing ‘go’ on rail reform and that an announcement will be made before Easter with regard to the future home of GBR.

Harper said that as the industry looked ahead to its 200th anniversary in 2025, GBR was a chance to resurrect some national pride in Britain’s railways. “The political will is there,” he added. MORE ON PAGES 14-15, 33

Rail reformticketing plans

Transport secretary confirms Pay-As-You-Go expansion and more radical plans for reform

TICKETING

Transport secretary Mark Harper announced wide-ranging reforms to rail ticketing at this week’s annual George Bradshaw address. He said that if the industry wanted to raise revenue. then “we must instill a customerfirst culture”.

He said this would mean tackling the issue which tops passenger lists of biggest concerns - fares and ticketing. “With 55 million fares available how can anyone feel confident they’re getting the best value for money?” Harper asked. “Ticketing should be hassle free, something you barely have to think about.”

“Ticket prices should also be fairer but often there is little difference between the cost of a single or a return,” he said. “Operators are often unable to significantly reduce prices on quieter services.”

As a result, after LNER’s trial of single leg pricing, this would now be extended to other parts of the LNER network from the spring. Ministers would then consider the results of the trials before extending the concept more widely.

clear timetable for legislation as well as pushing ahead with those reforms that don’t need to wait for parliamentary time, such as establishing an ambitious freight growth target or the contractual reforms that will free up operators to accelerate recovery.”

Meanwhile, rail passenger watchdog Transport Focus welcomed plans for rail ticketing reform. “We know that value for money is a key priority for passengers,” said chief executive Anthony Smith.“Transport Focus has long called for a simpler, more transparent fares structure including single-leg pricing.”

He said to kick off reforms, he was confirming an extension of Pay-As-You-Go ticketing, with 52 stations across the south-east set to be completed this year including those on the Chiltern, London Northwestern, and c2c networks. But Harper also announced plans to go further.

Harper continued: “It means a flexible single fare will always be half the cost of the equivalent return - giving passengers more flexibility and better value. This is not about increasing fares, I want passengers to benefit from simpler ticketing that meets their needs.”

The transport secretary also said the rail industry was going to learn from the aviation sector and introduce yield management ticketing to better manage capacity and also raise revenue by trialling demand-based pricing on some LNER services.

Harper also confirmed support for more open access services where these offer benefits to both passengers and taxpayers. “We’ve seen this work well with Hull Trains and Grand Central as well as with Lumo on the East Coast Main Line,” he said. “Open access operators will play an important role in the industry’s future, especially as we grow new markets and make best use of spare capacity on the network.”

LNER to be test bed for rail pricing reforms

“We will create a more customer focussed and joined up railway”

Operators don’t favour ‘integrated contracts’

MPs

INTEGRATION

Transport operators rejected suggestions from MPs on the Parliamentary Transport Select Committee last week that the government should investigate the potential for integrated bus and rail contracts.

Responding to a question on the issue from West Dorset MP Chris Loder, Richard Stevens, the managing director of Go South West, said there were already suitable regulatory tools available.

“There are places whereby fully contracted models can work,” he said. “We have put together the Transport for Cornwall project. Working with the railway, we have managed to do rail integration. We have managed to keep bus mileage in Cornwall

FARE PILOT LEADS TO 15% GROWTH

BUS FARES

Cornwall’s low bus fare pilot is already achieving significant passenger growth, MPs on the Parliamentary Transport Select Committee were told last week. Speaking at an evidence session convened to probe rural transport, Go South West managing director Richard Stevens revealed Cornish bus operators were seeing growth of 15% year-on-year.

“In the summer season, when tourists visit the south-west, there is another 15% on that,” he

at a pre-pandemic level. We have managed to connect most of the communities through the existing legislation that is available.”

When probed by Loder, Stevens said he was not in favour of a fully integrated bus and rail contract that the government would let as “all the tools already exist to achieve the outcomes”.

Mark Hopwood, managing director of train operator Great Western Railway, said he pretty much agreed with Stevens’ point of view, although he said it was perhaps a weakness that there was no base position of a requirement to provide transport.

“I don’t think I support having joint contracts,” Hopwood continued. “I know that they have granted them in places like the Netherlands... The competencies are quite different.”

Meanwhile, Graham Vidler, chief executive of the

revealed. “We are seeing 30% in peak summer.”

However, Stevens dismissed suggestions that this passenger growth had been achieved solely as a result of the low fares pilot.

“It is about connectivity,” he said. “It is about integration with rail. It is about an interoperable, multi-operator ticket with no price premium, with a standardised product suite and standardised pricing across all bus operators.

“That is helping to drive passenger growth, and passenger growth among young people. They are the acquirers. That is where we can win hearts and minds; 95% of my young people are back at pre-Covid levels.”

Confederation of Passenger Transport, said he felt there was a greater role that central government could take in defining the minimum standards people could expect.

“At the moment, we have an absence of that,” he said. Vidler added the government had consulted on the rural transport conundrum, and the National Bus Strategy has offered a clearer definition of socially and economically necessary services.

“Both of these strands of work need completion,” he said. “I do not think it follows from that that central government should get involved, for example, in designing networks or setting contracts. I think the existing relationships between operators and local authorities are the appropriate place to take forward delivery of the minimum standards.”

REIMBURSEMENT ISSUE HIGHLIGHTED

Operator reimbursement rates highlighted to MPs

RURAL BUSES

The issue of concessionary fare reimbursement raised its head at a hearing of the Parliamentary Transport Select Committee last week convened to probe the problems of rural public transport.

Ray Bryan, Dorset Council’s portfolio holder for highways, travel and environment, revealed that one bus service in his area where the operator received just 92p per journey. He contrasted this with the commercial fare on one route where a return ticket was priced at £13.

A ‘GUIDING MIND’ FOR BUSES?

Joined-up planning could mitigate ‘transport deserts’

RURAL BUSES

Planning of local bus networks should be placed “under the guiding mind of local authorities”, according to rural campaigners.

Chris Hinchliff, campaigns manager for CPRE, The Countryside Charity, told MPs on the Parliamentary Transport Select Committee last week that research undertaken before Covid-19 had suggested that more than half of the small towns across the southwest and north-east of the country are transport deserts or at risk of becoming one.

“We undertook a number of freedom of information requests across local authorities covering rural areas in the country and found that there was a real postcode lottery,” said Hinchliff. “In many places, local authorities are not undertaking a systemic and comprehensive overview. Rather, they are reacting to the withdrawal of private services on an ad hoc basis.”

He claimed this spoke to the fact that the real problem is the attempt to deliver rural bus services through a private network that relies on profitability.

Hinchliff continued: “Many rural areas are never going to have the population density to be able to support the level of services that those communities need, at a profitable rate. We need the government to step in to ensure that a comprehensive bus network is delivered through central funding.”

He said the priority should be to put the design of bus services under the guiding mind of local authorities. Hinchliff continued: “We should give them the ability to set out contracts that allow local authorities to design the network that works for their communities.”

Lower fares ‘part of a package driving ridership’

told suitable regulatory tools are already available

First snaps up Essex operator Ensignbus

Newman family announce sale of their business after 50 years

ACQUISITIONS

FirstGroup this week surprised the industry by announcing a deal to acquire Essex-based bus operator and dealer Ensignbus.

The group said the purchase of the business would not only strengthen its existing bus operations in Essex, but also “provide a number of synergies and value accretive growth opportunities in the B2B and bus vehicle dealership markets”.

The company was formed in 1972 by Peter Newman and expanded rapidly in the late 1970s when it acquired over 2,000 Daimler Fleetline double deckers that London Transport had branded as unreliable and troublesome.

Ensignbus made its name refurbishing the vehicles, replacing sophisticated but

SLEEPER SCORES MOST COMPLAINTS

Caledonian Sleeper is most complained about operator

CUSTOMER SERVICE

The Office of Rail and Road has revealed a spike in rail complaints between July 1 and September 30, 2022. A total of 86,385 complaints were closed by train operators, an increase of 18.8% from the same quarter in the previous year. It represents a rate of 24.0 complaints per 100,000 journeys. The most complained about operator was the Caledonian Sleeper with 551.9 complaints per 100,000

unreliable equipment specified by LT, and then selling them to operators both in the UK and elsewhere, including over 400 supplied to a single operator in Hong Kong. Expansion into sightseeing services and local bus operations followed.

Ensignbus is still owned by the Newman family and operates a relatively youthful fleet of 55 buses. As well as a growing commercial bus network in South Essex, Ensignbus also provides rail replacement and private hire contract services. The Newmans are to retain ownership of the Ensignbus heritage bus fleet.

In the year to December 31, 2021, Ensignbus reported a turnover of £26.7m, a respectable operating profit of £8.6m and relatively little debt.

In addition to its commercial operations, Ensignbus continues to deal in used buses and coaches and has a refurbishment operation. First says this business

journeys. This was ahead of open access operator Lumo with 295.4 complaints and embattled train operator Avanti West Coast with 238.6 complaints. This in itself was an increase of 51.3% on a year earlier. Other open access operators also struggled, with Hull Trains and Grand Central scoring 195.3 and 114.2 complaints respectively. East Coast operator LNER reported 102.2 complaints, but this was slightly lower than the figure for 2021.

The best performing train operators were Govia Thameslink Railway (12.3); Merseyrail (5.9); London Overground (0.6); and Elizabeth Line (0.5).

will benefit the group and it is anticipated that the market for the resale of lower emission used diesel vehicles will continue to remain robust.

Commenting on the deal, Newman paid tribute to his staff and said his family would support them as they move to their new employer.

“We’re pleased that First Bus, with their reputation for customer service, innovation and sustainability, will take the Ensignbus business forward as a going concern and we wish them a successful future,” he said. “We will continue to serve our communities and operate our network as usual until the completion date.”

FirstGroup chief executive Graham Sutherland added: “This is a strategically and financially accretive growth opportunity for us, and one that is fully aligned to our balanced capital allocation policy.”

WOLMAR PODCAST LAUNCHED

Calling All Stations covers all aspects of transport

MEDIA

Transport journalist Christian Wolmar has launched a new podcast, CallingAllStations.

Speaking to PassengerTransport this week, Wolmar said: “We are definitely covering all aspects of transport not just rail - so we’ve done, for example, smart motorways, the Levelling Up Fund (forthcoming) and the need for two pilots on planes, as well as lots about the industrial action on the railways, franchising,

IN BRIEF

AVANTI TAKEN TO TASK

The Office of Rail and Road has written to Avanti West Coast calling for significant improvements to its release of timetables. For weekends in January, passengers were only able to book tickets at a few days’ notice. Plans for February show a better picture for weekday travel, but the ORR said this still falls short of passengers’ needs.

AIRPORT STATION OPENS

The new Inverness Airport railway station opened to passenger on February 3. The new station is part of a wider £42m local rail investment that has seen the addition of a new passing loop and track renewal works.

ELIZABETH LINE MILESTONE

Transport for London has revealed more than 100 million journeys have been made on the Elizabeth Line since the central section opened in May 2022. The success is such that the line is expected to break even by the end of the 2023/24 financial year.

the £2 bus fare and the need for rail fares reform and the death of Adrian Shooter.”

He continued: “It’s a kind of double act with me and Mark Walker of Cogitamus, who is a very experienced transport guy.”

“We have done our first interview, with John Smith of GB Railfreight, and plan lots morepeople who want to come on the podcast can email me via christian.wolmar@gmail.com.”

There are currently five episodes of CallingAll Stations to listen to. Visit https:// markwalkerg.podbean.com/

Funding shortage could delay network plans

Ambitious plans to offer a ‘network of alternatives’ along the M4 corridor in South Wales could be at risk as a result of growing funding pressures

NETWORKS

The body overseeing delivery of the South Wales Transport Commission’s recommended “network of alternatives” has warned that funding pressures could delay implementation.

The commission, chaired by Lord Burns, was established in 2019 after the Welsh Government decided to cancel the planned £1.6bn M4 Relief Road around Newport for financial and environmental reasons. First minister Mark Drakeford pledged that the Newport area would have first call on the money the government had intended to spend on the new motorway, and the commission would advise on alternative investments.

The commission recommended six new railway stations and

REPORT EXPOSES POOR LINKS

NETWORKS

The interim report of a commission investigating transport in one of Britain’s most car-dependent regions has pointed a finger at poor accessibility and frequency of public transport, particularly on Sundays. Its findings may resonate in many other areas of the UK.

The Welsh Government appointed the North Wales Transport Commission, chaired by Lord Burns, last year, after cancelling two roadschemes in North Wales on the advice

enhanced bus services, including Bus Rapid Transit corridors, to give suburban residents of Newport and Cardiff convenient alternatives to driving. The new stations require enhancement of the two “relief lines” east of Cardiff, currently used almost exclusively for freight, for passenger services to travel at up to 90mph. Most Welsh rail infrastructure is not devolved. The Outline Business Case for the linespeed improvements, presented by Network Rail to the DfT a year

ago, showed high Benefit:Cost Ratios. However, it did not take account of the new stations, which will require alterations to track and overhead electrification equipment and will affect service patterns and passenger demand. The DfT awarded £2.7m last year for separate development work on five of the new stations.

The Burns Delivery Board and Unit is monitoring delivery and taking the lead on elements of the commission’s report which are not being progressed by others. It includes the Welsh Government, Network Rail and local authorities.

In its annual report for 2022, it says: “By 2029, we want to see six new railway stations open on the South Wales Mainline, more rail and bus services forming a single,

integrated network, segregated commuter cycleways in and between Newport and Cardiff and better provision for pedestrians, especially to access rail and bus stations.”

However, it warns: “Welsh Government budgets in the next few years will be very tight because of the knock-on effects of funding cuts at Westminster. There is a risk this will mean that insufficient funding is available for delivery of key infrastructure schemes, and that implementation is delayed.”

Once the DfT-funded development work is completed this year, “Welsh Government, the DfT and Network Rail will need to make a decision on proceeding to the next stage of development and then delivery”. The timeline shows construction of the stations starting in 2025, with new passenger services between West Wales and Bristol launched from 2025 to 2027. Upgrading of access to Severn Tunnel Junction station, particularly for buses, is programmed for the period between 2021 to early 2026.

of an independent Roads Review Panel. The panel gave ministers its recommendations on more than 50 other schemes last summer but the report remains unpublished.

The commission includes former Campaign for Better Transport director Stephen Joseph and Prof John Parkin of the University of the West of England. It will make recommendations after consulting with stakeholders.

It has issued a progress statement which says: “North Wales has one of the largest dependencies on the motor car of any region of England and Wales and low numbers of people using bus or rail services. These figures reflect the current

levels of transport services that are available and the cost of using them.”

The commission undertook Public Transport Accessibility Level (PTAL) assessments for each of the three sub-regions. PTAL is normally used in London and some other conurbations and takes account of frequency as well as walking time to the nearest bus stop or railway station.

In Gwynedd, Anglesey, Conwy and Denbighshire, 74% of all bus stops and railway stations are in either the worst or second worst PTAL categories. In the more urbanised counties of Wrexham and Flintshire, 54% of bus stops and railway stations are in those categories.

The commission notes that

important settlements, such as Caernarfon, are not on the rail network. In Gwynedd and Anglesey “the existing bus network does not create a realistic alternative to car journeys,” says the report. It highlights low frequencies, particularly in the evenings and on Sundays. This is despite tourism being an important contributor to the economy.

Sunday is a peak day for day trips to the region and for leisure travellers to return from long weekends away. With bus routes tending to be infrequent or nonexistent on Sundays, most visitors travel by car, resulting in congestion, illegal parking and inappropriate traffic on narrow rural roads.

Sunday public transport provision failings revealed

“Welsh Government budgets in the next few years will be very tight”

Welsh operators left in limbo over support

BES funding may no longer be forthcoming to bolster support

FUNDING

Welsh bus operators say they have been left in limbo over whether tens of millions of pounds will be provided from April 1 under the Bus Emergency Scheme (BES).

The Coach and Bus Association Cymru (CaBAC) told members on February 2 that the Welsh Government had “dramatically changed” its position, after previously advising that at least £28m, and up to £48m, had been allocated to continue the scheme which began during the Covid pandemic. It said officials were now advising that no funding had been allocated for a potential BES extension and Julie James, the minister for climate change, would finalise her budget by the last week of March.

CaBAC chairman Scott Pearson

wrote: “This is very disappointing and exceptionally worrying after what had been promising and progressive discussions over the last 12 months. To arrive at the 11th hour with no decision on bus funding, the industry now faces a cliff edge scenario which does nothing to enhance relations between the industry and government.

“As you will no doubt be aware, to comply with legislation to cancel or alter registrations from the 1 April 2023 notice will need to be received by the Traffic Commissioner’s office by Friday, 3 February 2023 (tomorrow).”

He commented that until a decision was made, “we as an industry are left in complete

limbo due to the lack of decisiveness within this Welsh Government department”, and there was not even a timeline of when a decision would be made. “Therefore, as a trade body we can only advise that due to this ‘uncertainty’ you should consider what your business may look like post 1st April 2023. We would also advise that you continue to work with your local authorities.”

The government told Passenger Transport: “Actions taken by the UK Government have left us with a series of difficult decisions to make as we balance the budget for the next financial year. As a result, we have unfortunately not been in a position to confirm the bus industry funding package before the 56-day notice period began on Friday, 3 February.

“This is a difficult time for all involved and we will continue to work closely with the industry and local authorities to reduce the impact on the public. We will

Labour warns of ‘10 days to act’ on funding

Government urged to give operators ‘certainty they need’

The Labour Party has called on the government to offer additional funding for bus services in England.

With the current Bus Recovery Grant scheme due to expire at the end of March, operators must lodge their planned changes and service cancellations from that date with Traffic Commissioners next week.

Analysis by Labour using data from the Confederation of Passenger Transport suggests more than 1,600 bus routes could be cut, leaving England with fewer than 10,000 registered local bus routes for the first time.

The party is urging the government to give operators “the certainty they need” on the future of the Bus Recovery Grant.

“In the teeth of a cost-of-living and climate crisis, any sensible government would be doing everything within its power to encourage people onto public transport and ensure buses are affordable, accessible and reliable,” said shadow transport secretary Louise Haigh.

“Since 2012, thousands of services have been lost - with more than 1,000 scrapped in the last year alone. Lost connections like these hold back our economic growth and deepen our productivity problem.”

provide further updates as soon as we are able to.”

Tim Peppin, the Welsh Local Government Association’s director of regeneration and sustainable development, said the WLGA was in discussions with the government. “I fully understand the operators’ position. They needed that certainty or they would have missed the deadline to deregister. It’s a difficult situation.”

He said operators would be having discussions with councils about planned deregistrations but local government could not step in on a big scale to save bus services. He said the government also faced budgetary pressures, including from public sector pay claims.

Pearson claimed that the £28m previously earmarked for BES “could be reallocated to other areas within the transport budget” and that TfW Rail required an “uplift in budget” for 2023-24. The government has acknowledged a large cost increase for the Core Valley Lines modernisation programme, from £750m to at least £1bn, but that primarily relates to capital budgets.

Some bus services were only marginally viable even with BES support at the current rate. Last month, Llew Jones Coaches announced that it planned to withdraw the TrawsCymru T19 service between Llandudno and Blaenau Ffestiniog to prevent further losses. “Due to a huge reduction in passengers since the Covid-19 pandemic, and no indications that the numbers will recover any further, the T19 has becoming increasingly financially unviable,” said the operator, which has sought funding from the Welsh Government and local authority. The Welsh Government ordered an electric bus for the T19 in 2020 but the vehicle has never been used.

“The industry now faces a cliff edge scenario”

Scott Pearson

IN BRIEF

GO-AHEAD ACQUISITION

West Sussex-based bus operator Southdown Buses has been acquired by Go-Ahead subsidiary Brighton & Hove. The deal includes 25 vehicles and 43 members of staff. Southdown Buses managing director Steve Wallis is to remain with Brighton & Hove as manager of its Spirit of Sussex coach operation.

GREENLINE RENEWAL

Council-owned bus operator Reading Buses has announced it has ordered seven new Alexander Dennis Enviro400 double deckers for its high profile Greenlinebranded services into central London and Heathrow Airport. The buses will be the first 11.5-metre long Enviro400s that ADL has built with City-style bodywork. Five of the seven buses will have space to accommodate two wheelchair users, while the other two will have extra luggage space.

NXWM ORDERS

National Express Group has announced it has placed orders for 300 UK-made electric buses for use at its bus operations in the West Midlands. The £150m order will see the vehicles enter service by the end of December 2024.

ISLE OF MAN EXTENDS CAP

A £2 cap on Isle of Man bus fares has been extended for a further two months. The threemonth ticketing trial had been due to end at the end of January, but infrastructure minister Chris Thomas has said the cap will now stay in place until March 31. The move was one of a number of measures introduced last November by the Manx Government in a bid to help with the cost-of-living crisis.

England bus fare cap could be driving growth

Transport Focus probes reactions to Winter bus fare cap

FARES & TICKETING

New research published by Transport Focus suggests that the current £2 bus fare cap in England is encouraging greater bus use and leading to a spike in passenger satisfaction with the perceived value for money of bus fares.

More than 130 bus operators in England outside London have capped single adult fares at £2 until March 31 as part of a government-funded scheme to help with the cost-of-living crisis. The government has claimed that single local bus fares in England cost £2.80 on average but can exceed £5 in some rural areas. With the launch of the scheme the passenger watchdog spoke

to more than 1,000 people to understand awareness of the fare cap and whether it has led to more journeys being made on buses.

Encouragingly, over half (53%) of those Transport Focus spoke to said they were aware of the £2 fare. This was higher among regular bus users, with at least two thirds aware, including a third of people who never use buses.

A total of 7% said they are already using the bus more because of the £2 fare, while almost a third (32%) say they might use buses more but haven’t yet. In Transport Focus’s latest

Bus User Survey report, 73% of bus passengers were satisfied with value for money, the highest since the survey began in September 2021.

“Bus passengers tell us they want simpler, better value for money fares,” said Transport Focus director David Sidebottom. “The £2 bus fare is a welcome step to help attract passengers back on board and encourage non-users to give bus a go. While it’s still early days, these results are encouraging. We will continue to talk to bus passengers and use our insight to help government and industry focus on what matters most.”

Go-Ahead announced in January its operations have so far carried more than two million passengers who have taken advantage of the scheme (PT282).

COMMENT: PAGES 18-19

45 MILLION FREE BUS TRIPS

One year since Scotland launched free travel scheme

CONCESSIONARY TRAVEL

The Scottish Government has revealed that almost 45 million free bus journeys have been made since free bus travel for under 22s was introduced a year ago.

The overall uptake from the estimated 930,000 eligible for the scheme is currently 60.7%. The uptake for those aged 12-15 is higher at 69.3% and for those aged 16-21 the figure is 71.5%.

Scotland benefits from one of the most generous concessionary travel schemes in the UK with over a third of the population eligible for free bus travel.

SCOTTISH CITY UK FIRST FOR ELECTRIC Scottish transport minister Jenny Gilruth last week launched the UK’s first fully-electric city bus network in Inverness. Stagecoach Highlands has introduced 25 brand-new zero-emission Yutong E10 buses which are now operating on all city routes.

“While it’s still early days, these results are encouraging”

David Sidebottom

Oxfordshire operators order 159 electric buses

Go-Ahead and Stagecoach firms place ZEBRA orders

ELECTRIC BUSES

Oxfordshire’s two major bus operators have placed orders for 159 new electric buses as part of the UK Government’s ZEBRA zero-emission bus scheme.

The buses are part of a package of improvements for bus users in Oxford. Passengers will also benefit from speedier journeys with the installation of several new traffic filters in the city, an expanded zero-emission zone and through additional bus priority schemes implemented by Oxfordshire County Council.

Go-Ahead-owned Oxford Bus Company has announced it has placed orders for 104 electric buses. The order will comprise five

ZENOBE OPENS RESEARCH LAB

Portsmouth facility aims to drive improvements

VEHICLES

Electric vehicle fleet and battery storage specialist Zenobe last month welcomed Portsmouth North MP and leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt to open its new innovation centre in the city.

The facility will test the latest EV charging solutions to identify the most cost-effective and optimal charging options for fleet operators, as well as driving innovation in the electric transport sector.

The centre can simulate the intricacies of depot charging with the ability to charge multiple buses and electric cars at one time while

single and 99 double decker buses, to be manufactured in Northern Ireland by Wrightbus. Eight of the double deck vehicles will be open toppers for use on the company’s CitySightseeing tours in Oxford.

Delivery of the vehicles will mean Go-Ahead fleets will

comprise 456 zero-emission buses, putting the group well on the way to have a fully zero-emission fleet by 2035.

Meanwhile, Stagecoach will introduce 55 electric Alexander Dennis Enviro400EV double deckers on its Oxford city and

Oxfordshire networks from late 2023.

These vehicles will be the first electric buses to be fully designed and built by Alexander Dennis and will have an operational range of around 260 miles. They will feature Voith’s next generation electric driveline as well as what ADL describes as a “future-proof” battery system.

“This is a fantastic day for bus passengers in Oxford,” said Luke Marion, Oxford Bus Company managing director. “We’re proud to be ordering a fleet of stateof-the-art, UK-made electric buses which will be cleaner and healthier for local residents, and offer a quieter, more comfortable ride for customers.”

Sam Greer, engineering director for Stagecoach, added: “We’re pleased to be continuing our commitment to move to a zero-emission UK bus fleet by becoming the first operator to make major investment in the new fleet of Enviro400EV buses.”

connected to a Powerskid, a 100kW battery storage asset made from second-life batteries.

It will enable Zenobe researchers to assess how innovations such as vehicle-to-grid charging and grid enhancement services to support the additional power required for electric vehicle charging can be scaled up and implemented for fleet operators. The centre will also trial different models of charger and electric vehicles to provide valuable insight into the relationship between the charger and vehicle.

Zenobe founder director Steven Meersman said the site would not only test components, chargers and other equipment, but also act as a proving ground to commission and integrate equipment before anything arrives at customers’ sites.

Steve Meersman and Penny Mordaunt open the new site

Stakeholders announce the electric bus orders

& TECHNOLOGY

CAVForth is extended with £10m of support

New government funding will enable world’s first fully sized, self-driving bus service to be extended five miles into the centre of Dunfermline

AUTONOMOUS BUSES

The world’s first fully sized, self-driving bus service has been awarded a share of £81m in joint UK government and industry support for self-driving technology.

CAVForth2, which is jointly funded by the UK Government’s Centre for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles and project partners Fusion Processing Ltd, Stagecoach, Alexander Dennis, Edinburgh Napier University and the University of West of England, will receive £10.4m to launch the world’s first operational, full-sized, self-driving bus service. This project will see Stagecoach extend the 14-mile route of the existing CAVForth autonomous bus service from Edinburgh Park station across the Forth Road Bridge - poised to launch to the public this spring after extensive testing - on to Dunfermline city centre. The additional five-mile section of the route will take in more complex autonomous driving scenarios on busy category A and B roads, mixing with city centre traffic.

Capability to accomplish this challenging driving will come from an upgraded version of the CAVStar® ADS (Automated Drive System) that will be developed and supplied by Fusion Processing Ltd during the project.

CAVForth2 will utilise an autonomous version of the nextgeneration Enviro100EV electric bus from Alexander Dennis, also fitted with Fusion’s CAVStar ADS. This Enviro100AEV will

operate alongside five existing autonomous Alexander Dennis Enviro200AV buses from the original CAVForth project.

Alexander Dennis’s head of concepts and advanced engineering, Jamie Wilson, welcomed the confirmation of UK Government funding: “This renewed support from the Centre

for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles builds on our achievements in the CAVForth project and will allow us to further develop autonomous bus technology here in the UK. This ensures the British bus industry remains at the forefront of global trends and helps secure jobs in the automotive industry. Our new

Enviro100AEV will demonstrate another use case for our extremely versatile next-generation electric bus as Alexander Dennis continues to lead the transition to zero-emission mobility.”

Automated driving offers potential advantages over manually driven buses in fuel savings and reduced brake and tyre wear. There can be a 20% variance in fuel consumption across different bus drivers in a fleet. Fusion Processing will map the automated drive system to accurately match the best driver, optimising acceleration so it is smooth and efficient. The Fusion system also interrogates the traffic lights and adjusts the vehicle’s speed to ensure they arrive on green, further reducing tyre and brake wear.

The buses will continue to be staffed by specially-trained ‘autonomous bus professionals’ recruited by Stagecoach from across its East Scotland business. These experienced bus drivers will act as safety drivers and monitor the autonomous system alongside a bus ‘captain’ who will move around the vehicle, talking to passengers about the service.

FUNDING WINNERS

CAVForth2 - £10.4m to launch the world’s first operational, full-sized, self-driving bus service, in Edinburgh, with Stagecoach and Alexander Dennis

V-CAL - £8m to roll out self-driving and remotely piloted HGVs between the Vantec and Nissan sites in Sunderland

Hub2Hub - £13.2m to develop a new, zero-emission, self-driving HGV with Asda Sunderland

Advanced Mobility Shuttle - £6m to build and trial a self-driving shuttle service to the University of Sunderland and the Sunderland Royal Hospital

Project Harlander - £11m to deploy a self-driving shuttle service around Belfast Harbour

Multi-Area Connected Automated Mobility - £15.2m to establish a remote driving control hub, to oversee self-driving vehicles operating in Solihull and Coventry, with the NEC and local councils.

Project Cambridge Connector - £17.4m to trial on-demand, self-driving taxis, to complement existing transport services in parts of Cambridge

Carla Stockton-Jones, UK managing director of Stagecoach, said: “We’re very proud to be pioneers of this technology with our plans to roll out the UK’s first full-sized autonomous bus service in Scotland in the spring. The government funding announced today means that we can build further on this achievement by advancing the technology as we extend our Scottish bus trial to cover a longer route. We look forward to working with our partners across the country to roll out CAVForth2 and the other autonomous projects awarded funding today, which will all help to ensure that the UK remains firmly on the map for its advancements in autonomous technology.”

CAVForth2 will utilise an autonomous version of the nextgeneration Enviro100EV electric bus from Alexander Dennis

“This ensures the British bus industry remains at the forefront of global trends”

Jamie Wilson, ADL

NORMAN BAKER

Has Harper got rail on the right track?

Amid all the doom and gloom, transport secretary Mark Harper outlined his positive vision for a growth-orientated railway

I can hear one of my friends from Liverpool telling me I am going soft in the head, but for my money, Mark Harper’s Bradshaw lecture last night (as I write this on Wednesday morning) was one of the best and most encouraging speeches I have heard from a transport secretary.

Perhaps it was because of the doom and gloom all around, all the deterioration in public services, all the rough rides that rail has had over the last couple of years that I feared the worst: a Treasury-led belt tightening, and cuts to services, leading to a downward spiral where more people abandon the trains and more cuts are made to make up the income shortfall.

Instead, Mark Harper signalled the opposite: a drive for more passengers and more freight on the rails to generate more income and make up the shortfall that way. He went further and made the entirely sensible point that there is no use in cutting services if it reduces income.

All this is an approach I have long advocated but did not frankly expect to hear in such committed terms from a Conservative transport secretary.

Mark Harper was at pains last night to stress that his approach had the full support of both the prime minister and the chancellor, which suggests some pretty effective lobbying on his part, and doubtless also by his impressive rail minister Huw Merriman.

Given the preponderance of pretty useless ministers to be easily found across the government, we are fortunate indeed to

have Messrs Harper and Merriman at the Department for Transport.

The transport secretary mentioned the support from the PM and chancellor on at least three occasions, with the intention of assuring the audience of the great and the good who were present that his approach was a government one, and not simply a DfT one. It also had the effect of boxing the PM and chancellor publicly into what Mark Harper wants to do, which may also have been the intention.

This is clearly part of the message. I was given an advance brief on his speech earlier in the day by DfT officials who volunteered the same point. Indeed, one suggested (accurately I think) that this was the first time a transport secretary, PM and chancellor had all been pointing in the same direction on rail. The best they had had before was two out of three. That is intriguing of course, because the inside track back then suggested Shapps and Johnson were largely of one mind, but that that mind was not shared by the then chancellor, one Rishi Sunak.

The same optimism was shown by the promise to roll out single leg pricing, again something many, including me, have advocated for a long time. The frustration is this roll out is still somewhat limited. We have had a pilot in place on some LNER journeys since 2020, and the promise last night was only to extend this to other parts of the LNER network.

I suspect that the Treasury has baulked at going any further at present. After all, there are people who at the moment are buying off-peak returns or indeed off-peak singles at virtually the same price who for whatever reason do not intend to make the return journey by rail and who in future will be very happy with a single leg ticket at half the price. That means a loss of income from that passenger.

When I queried that with DfT officials, I got back the line that the growth in passenger numbers would offset that. That may be right, and it is certainly right to try, although I am surprised that this argument got past the bean-counters at the Treasury.

Mark Harper stated that fares and ticketing issues are top of passengers’ concerns, and referenced the fact that there are 55 million different tickets available. It did occur to me that there may well be even more with his promise to trial a demand-based system.

This is the idea that train tickets would be sold like airline tickets, with prices fluctuating according to availability. To some extent, that system is already in place, in a crude sort of way, with peak tickets more expensive than off-peak ones, and advance tickets priced differently according to the train you want to catch. For those who want the best price from Liverpool to London, for example, a train mid-evening arriving late in London will almost certainly give you a better price than one mid-morning. But it seems more sophistication is going to be built in.

There was also a commitment to extend Pay-As-You-Go to 52 more stations feeding trains into London which was welcome, even if the roll-out overall appears to be frustratingly sluggish.

The transport secretary was also at pains to assert that it was not appropriate for ministers to micro-manage the network, and referred to a decision he had taken that day over whether to reallocate a train path from a passenger service to freight which he thought was ludicrous for him to be deciding.

“The transport secretary mentioned the support from the PM and chancellor on at least three occasions”

He is right of course about that, though in this regard it may well be he needs to worry more about his civil servants than he does about himself or his fellow ministers. Many enjoy the minutiae and will not easily be weaned off. Ministers themselves, judging by past experience, will also find it difficult to resist interfering when something is clearly not going well.

Linked to that, he made the striking observation that when a train is cancelled, he will often get the blame on Twitter, but nobody blames him if a plane is cancelled.

Overall, he set out four objectives: one, a streamlined Great British Railways (a thin, as opposed to fat controller); two, operators empowered to attract passengers in a way that simply doesn’t exist at the moment; three, fares reform; and four, an aim to grow railfreight threefold by 2050.

On that last point, he opined that goods currently on the road would be better on rail, which is a welcome if indirect commitment to modal shift.

Freight in fact - or the f-word as one

questioner termed it - actually featured much more prominently than many of us expected. Harper announced, albeit in general terms, a duty on the industry to grow freight volumes, and the creation of a dedicated freight unit. There have been mutterings among Tory backbenchers that the creation of GBR as envisaged in the Williams plan (the Shapps bit of the title has been quietly dropped) constituted renationalisation, so perhaps they will have been reassured by Mark Harper’s clear intention to give a greater role to the private sector and to competition.

There is to be more competitive ticket selling. This has already been subject of a toe in the water in Wales, but in principle, if you will be able to buy a ticket to Beckenham Junction and a Mars bar, why not? Many might prefer that to using a ticket machine.

We also heard from the transport secretary a commitment to more open access which, although he did not specify this and indeed said the details were not a matter for him, must mean a new service or two on the West Coast Main Line.

On the east coast mainline, we have not simply seen Lumo and Hull Trains prosper, but LNER too, as London-Edinburgh is increasingly being seen as a rail corridor. The train-plane split is now 67-33, compared to 50-50 on the west coast.

This new emphasis on the private sector does however raise a couple of big questions. The first relates to the nature of the freedom that the private sector will have, and specifically the balance between risk and reward.

It is widely accepted that the franchise system had failed even before Covid kicked in, so we will need to understand the differences between the risk-reward mechanisms that applied then and those envisaged now.

The second big question relates to what might happen after the next general election which by law is less than two years away and could come much earlier.

As things stand, the Tories will be out and we will have a Labour government, or a hung parliament with a non-Tory administration.

Labour is committed to “renationalisation” though it is not clear what exactly that means. We do know that there are no plans to touch the ROSCOs and that their plans seem to relate only to the TOCs.

At one end, it could be a return to a central body directly running services itself, as British Rail was. Or it could mean central control of trains, fares, timetables, but delivered by private companies, so a bit like the operation of buses in London. That of course would not be very different to what exists now.

In the only overtly political part of his speech last night, Mark Harper criticised the idea of renationalisation, suggesting that when under public control, the railways had seen a steady decline in passenger numbers, and contrasted that with what had happened since privatisation where numbers had broadly doubled, at least before Covid kicked in.

The challenge he and Huw Merriman face, therefore, is to demonstrate that his vision works and is the way forward, and to do so by the time the next general election is called.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

“Harper’s clear intention to give a greater role to the private sector and to competition”

We have had a pilot of single leg pricing in place on some LNER journeys since 2020, and the promise is only to extend this to other parts of the LNER network

Norman Baker served as transport minister from May 2010 until October 2013. He was Lib Dem MP for Lewes between 1997 and 2015.

ALEX WARNER

Northern gives fare dodgers the red card

I’m not going to lie, I knew I was on a yellow card when I was invited by Northern to spend a day with them disproving my theory that the industry has taken its eye off the ball on revenue protection. Commercial and customer director Mark Powles got it out the way quickly and clinically. “Alex, you know me and that I tell it how it is, but a couple of your recent articles have got right up my nose,” he explained, but from then on the trip was cushty. When I jousted back that he wasn’t going to get advertorial from me, he said it was absolutely the last thing on earth he wanted. At least we got that straight from the start. I wasn’t fessing up to them, but I already knew that Northern was one of the better operators. Last Sunday night at 22:00, I travelled to Blackpool North and the gates were staffed Fort Knox-style. Anyway, here we were in a Hunslet industrial estate and Carlisle Group’s Leeds HQ. I was greeted by their CEO Paul Evans and his sidekick Steve Cere, who were hosting me alongside Northern (Evans’ folk provide outsourced revenue protection services for the train company). My chaperones are an eclectic bunch and it’s clear their quirkiness and passion are differentiators in terms of revenue protection stewardship. I often lament the lack of big personalities left in the game these days, but the cast for today belied this theory. Round the table, we had industry experience and savviness, combining a data-rational, cerebral approach with ‘boots on the ground’, practical, effective action.

This experience and passion for revenue protection was a throwback to an era way back when TOCs first took revenue risk and there was a real fervour to cut fare evasion. Powles, is a classic example. It seems he’s been on the scene longer than Cliff Richard, but he’s got that steely determination, dynamism and ‘been round the block’ intuition that’s vital in an industry where turnover of revenue protection managers is high and it’s difficult to retain any corporate memory. That he, as commercial and customer director, also looks after revenue protection, analysis and deployment, and can combine it with his overall strategy for income development, pricing, retailing, marketing and customer communication is gold-dust. His dual-purpose job title is apt - “Our heart is as

much about creating satisfied customers as it is about making money. It’s a good balance,” chimes Powles. He’s supported by Jason Wade, who despite his boyish good looks is into his 50s and has arguably more specialist experience in revenue protection than anyone else in the UK. Having being at Northern since 1993 he knows every trick in the book.

Powles and Wade are an entertaining doubleact in themselves but throw in the mix the ‘joined at the hip’ partnership with Carlisle Group and it feels like a winning formula. Evans explains that they are still performance managed and challenged by Northern, but there’s no sense of Carlisle being treated as subservient suppliers incapable of generating their own ideas. In Evans, there’s no way that would happen anyway. He’s progressed from security guard to CEO and tackling fare evasion is in his blood. Like your typical bouncer, he’s got piercing eyes and is very much ‘no-nonsense’. Evans is also a part-time Football League referee. Last time I saw him, he was keeping fiery Bradford City manager Mark Hughes in order as fourth official for their game at Sutton United. Evans is supported by Cere - who cares deeply about dealing with fare evasion and is a 25-year railwayman.

After insightful presentations we’re off to Bradford Interchange and joined by Louise Shearer, the unflappable boss who oversees the Northern revenue protection team. She describes the collaboration she receives from regional directors within Northern but also the sense in there being a specific revenue protection department on a company basis, rather than aligned to and part of the regional structure. That way, revenue protection is recognised as a specialism and deployment transcends functional boundaries.

Shearer introduces me to her fraud and prosecutions team and young Andrew Turnbull, ice-hockey fanatic and marquee signing from local bus company Blazefield. He provides a compelling presentation, including how they nobbled someone ‘doing a doughnut’ which involves buying a ticket for both ends of a journey but not the hole in the middle. There’s also work being undertaken to profile different types of fare offenders, understanding their motivations and behaviours.

Success against fraudulent Delay Repay claimers is also showcased, including the beady eye of a customer service centre employee

I had a behind-the-scenes look at how the TOC works with Carlisle Group to clamp down on fraudulent travel across

Me with the Carlisle team and Jason Wade

who yesterday detected claims from multiple individuals using the same taxi receipt and which uncovered a prolific scammer. Delay Repay fraud is something we wouldn’t have needed to worry about a few years ago, but it’s now a huge issue. The days of lazily sitting at home on a sofa and checking out social media and ‘live train running’ data feeds on websites to identify delayed services then pretend to have travelled on them, are diminishing fast, particularly in Northern where the analysis is as forensic as that at GCHQ. There are graphs relating to specific individuals illustrating both their movements and refund claims, with quirky spikes triggering investigative action.

Northern has 474 stations and only operates 20 gatelines. It’s clear how the retailing landscape has changed and in turn customer behaviour and expectation, with digital journeys up, representing 63% (up 47% in four years) and ticket office sales slumping to 19%. This has introduced new types of fraud and in particular fare evaders buying an online ticket, then not validating it on the system and claiming a refund on their purchase, as if they suddenly decided not to travel. Northern take a traditional approach to combatting fraudulent travel by making it as easy as possible to buy a ticket. The focus is around more ticket-vending machines (TVMs) with a greater product capability, as well as increasing off-site retail channels, making them easier to use and less exposed to fraud. This involves equipping staff, including the Carlisle team, with handheld mobile barcode validators.

Messaging remains important still and is reinforced by media coverage around fare evasion successes and proper ‘old school’ stuff like floor vinyls at hotspot stations reminding customers they are entering an area where they need a valid ticket. Wade calls it a ‘sporting strategy’ - ‘Play Fare! Cross the line, risk a fine!’

In this era of short-sighted cost cutting and excessive obsessions with business cases, Powles has demonstrated the ‘no-brainer’ return on investment for deploying ticket checking. He’s cultivated a culture across Northern that sees the revenue protection team as a ‘profit centre’. Wade regales me of Northern’s regular deployment of stringent ticketless travel surveys and micro-analysis of the results to drive effective resource deployment decisions. It’s a fast-moving, agile approach, of constantly checking shifting data and trends

and responding accordingly, including plain clothes activity. The team have graphs galore, illustrating that they’ve pinpointed, quantifiably so, fraud levels on a station by station and corridor basis. Wade’s most prized spreadsheet shows a drop from 10% to 5% in ticketless travel since 2019. Northern also subscribes to the view that pro-active revenue protection measures reduce anti-social behaviour and criminal activity, whilst also increasing customer satisfaction scores, demand and revenue.

In Carlisle Group, Powles has a supplier that not only understands the problem and responds to it, but who properly trains and equip its staff as rounded revenue protection experts. They aren’t like many other suppliers and TOC employees who are entrusted to protect revenue but instead, provide merely a manual and sometimes supine, passive presence, that evaders know isn’t up to the job of challenging them effectively. Meanwhile, Evans and Cere pop up 365/7 across the railway, meeting their teams and getting stuck in themselves and it’s clear they’re as aware of the issues as their own client, Northern, helping feed them with intelligence and insight around fare evasion issues. Their visibility naturally sharpens the focus and motivation of their teams.

Back on the train to Leeds and mortifyingly I realise I’ve forgotten to purchase a ticket and Evans is giving me a ‘you’re on a final warning’ stare. Thankfully, Wade wades in to tell the conductor ‘he’s with me’. We arrive in Leeds and I watch the Carlisle team in action, furtively casting their eyes from a distance over customers as they approach the excess fares window, about to explain their misdemeanours or genuine mistakes. Evans says he’s clearing off for a few minutes so that his team can talk ‘candidly’ about him and revenue protection.

It was clear that his folk were really firing when it came to sussing out all the scams and tackling them and the underlying causes of fare evasion. They spoke about the impact of the cost-of-living crisis both on the desire for folk to avoid paying and also their more alarmed reactions when challenged and briefed on the potential for a £100 penalty fare. The railway, like other public services, is also suffering from more adversarial behaviour from customers post pandemic, but dressing them in the Northern uniform, rather than wearing a silly yellow hi-vis has created greater respect. It was striking how smartly and professionally

attired they were and also the partnership they had forged with Northern and Network Rail employees across the station.

It’s also interesting to regularly note at Leeds how the queue at the Excess Fares window no longer stretches halfway down Platform 1, but now in dribs and drabs, testimony to the message getting home to fare evaders. There’s been 9,200 successful prosecutions in the 10 months of this financial year, which is impressive. Northern has a ‘three strikes and you’re out’ approach to those incurring penalty fares, before pursuing court action, which seems logical. It seeks out of court settlements as these do not clog up the judicial system. Prosecuting is time-consuming and costly.

Anyway, it’s Friday evening and, although Wade and Turnbull (whose mobile barcode validator is poised to check whatever ticket could be sniffed out) would happily spend their whole weekend hunting fare evaders, I’ve a long trip back to Surrey. Evans needs to prepare for tomorrow, where he’s running the line at Crawley Town v Salford City in League 2, but not before he’s detoured to Derby to congratulate a member of his frontline team on 20 years’ service. There’s no winding down for the weekend from this whirlwind.

Evans, Powles and their entourage are a strange collection of indefatigable, strongminded, focused individuals who, in their coming together, have formed a team and approach that, bluntly speaking, could be utilised to provide a joined-up, multi-faceted revenue protection service for the entire industry in the new world (GBRTT take note, the solution is here!). Northern’s mantra is ‘Think National, Act Northern, Deliver Local’ and they’re keen to do their bit for the industry.

Very soon I’ll be doing dummy trips north posing as a fare evader and I look forward to reporting back my findings. It’s worth hunting down shortcomings, just to get right up Powles’ nose once more and solicit another fascinating trip out on his manor - but remembering to buy a ticket this time. I’m not giving Evans the satisfaction of brandishing his red card at me!

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Alex Warner has over 29 years’ experience in the transport sector, having held senior roles on a multi-modal basis across the sector

“Our heart is as much about creating satisfied customers as it is about making money”Mark Powles

Where will the £2 fare offer take us?

The government’s ‘Get around for £2’ bus fares scheme isn’t perfect - but it does offer a big opportunity for bus operators. Could positive media coverage and good value, simple fares have a lasting impact on the perceptions of bus travel?

We’re around a third of the way through the government’s ‘Get around for £2’ bus fares scheme and it’s pleasing to know that millions of customers across the UK will have benefitted from a reduced bus fare already in January. That certainly can’t be a bad way for a struggling industry to welcome its customers into the new year and beyond.

For many customers, the savings offered by the scheme over the course of three months, from January to March 2023, will be invaluable with the increasing pressures on living costs. For others, it will be a welcome benefit and certainly won’t do any harm towards how they feel about their local bus company.

Aimed at ‘encouraging people to get back on the bus’ as part of the Help for Households campaign, says the government, the scheme will undoubtedly deliver savings for a lot of bus customers - but will it be the catalyst so desperately needed by the industry to deliver real long term customer growth?

The timing of the scheme at least couldn’t be better for current or potential bus users, with customers typically travelling less often in January than most other months. Often a period where price rises are announced across rail and bus sectors too, the scheme will inevitably have delayed intended price increases for some operators, I’m sure.

But whilst positive for existing bus customers, the scheme has probably given many operators a bit of a headache. Although three months of funding to subsidise the reduced fare scheme gives some comfort, I’m not sure that demand will have peaked enough to allow operators to consider a change in their pricing plans for 2023.

And here lies one of the biggest challenges facing operators come March 31. Fares returning to ‘normal’ following the end of the scheme will undoubtedly be seen as a fare increase. Include the fact that some operators will probably need to further increase their prices anyway, and there’s a real likelihood that any of the benefits brought about from the three-month scheme could be wiped out before anybody has chance to understand whether it has brought any benefits.

Putting aside some of the potential issues during or following the scheme, the opportunity to shout from the rooftops about

A Go-Ahead bus in Newcastle offering £2 promotional fares

Shane Grindey

genuinely good value single fares that are super easy to understand should be a marketer’s dream. Whilst temporary, the scheme offers a free-hit for most to talk about their prices without reference to antiquated fare charts or caveats regarding zones or restrictions. The modern day customer demands that any service is presented with simplicity and the scheme offers just that. Customers can be completely assured that they’re travelling with the best value ticket and prospective customers can’t be under any illusions about how much a trip on the bus might cost them. Understandably I’m sure most operators will have had little time to prepare their campaigns prior to the scheme being announced, but by now, multi-channel PR and marketing campaigns should be well under way if we’re going to do the scheme any justice.

Not to be forgotten either is the opportunity to delight current customers and present them with savings. It would be naïve to assume that they will absorb blanket communications about the scheme and we must work equally as hard to make the most of the chance to increase brand advocacy, trust and loyalty amongst those who have been loyal spenders.

Back to the eye-watering fact that millions of bus journeys have been made at a lower price since January, perhaps most important for operators is to understand how many of these have come from new or lapsed customers compared to existing customers. Profiling the type of customers making savings is so important in understanding where we go next. A huge benefit of the reduced fare is the fact that it significantly simplifies bus travel. You’d like to think that this alone would be enough to encourage bus use and we could, and should, learn a lot from how these three months impact buying behaviours and travel patterns to inform future strategies.

For those who might have been won over by the proposition of a £2 bus fare, whether brand new, lapsed or infrequent bus users, how we nurture and build a relationship which encourages them to travel by bus more frequently in the future should be one of the biggest areas of focus for operators. If it isn’t, we can’t expect anything less than disgruntlement when they’re met with increased prices in a couple of months. The £2 fare scheme ending is unavoidable, but how we treat and take care of any new customers in the meantime is completely in our hands.

Sure, many customers will always be anonymous travellers but with more touch points and opportunities to interact with customers than ever before, whether that be pre, during or post journey, we must make the most of them. I can barely think of any service these days where I’m not sharing some form of personal data if I’m a customer, and our industry should be aspiring to achieve a retailstyle transaction which builds trust, provides business insight, and a platform to engage and retain customers.

With the apparent end to subsidised funding from April, this could well be the last cash injection for the industry for some time, so how can it be used as the catalyst to aggressively recover customer numbers through 2023 and beyond?

In my time as a marketing professional at Blackpool Transport I was always opposed to any flat fare scheme for various reasons. However, despite some personal (and commercially minded objections), the premise of such an approach does relieve several barriers and complexities to travelling by bus, particularly amongst our younger customers of now and long into the future. I do wonder whether those operators who will eventually prosper will be the ones who invest early in a long-term strategy backed by investment and a relentless persistence to deliver a good value, retail-like service which truly works in the modern-day environment. That means simple fares where you’re under no illusions about how much the service you’re about to buy will cost. That means knowing you’ll always get the best value and pay the lowest price for the number of times you travel in a given period. That means adopting subscription-like services with a tiered approach to meet the needs of the customer and not the boardroom pressures.

We’re collectively edging closer as an industry towards meeting the expectations of our younger customers (whilst not forgetting the importance of our concessionary customers too) and the emerging roll out of various ‘capped’ contactless schemes has to be one of the most progressive customer-centric changes I’ve seen in recent years. It ticks all the boxes needed to build trust and offer transparency, two key drivers of customer satisfaction if you were to take the Institute of Customer Services at their word.

Without the evidence of data, I’m certain

more than half of bus customers still ‘pay as you go’ with single fares, and yet in my experience the emphasis from the operator has always been on season or saver tickets. It gives us comfort and peace of mind I guess, but it’s time to embrace the notion that buyer behaviour is only shifting one way, and that is increasingly towards nom strings attached, low buy-in, on-demand personalised service. A £2 flat fare, or any flat fare scheme might not be the complete answer, but it seems like one of the few ways to truly present an easy-to-understand price proposition.

Personally, I don’t blame operators for being hesitant in how to approach the promotion of the scheme given that the government’s own communications aren’t particularly clear. In their own words, it’s aimed at encouraging people to use the bus again - but also aimed at helping everyone with the cost-of-living crisis. I’ve pondered over whether this means that the government’s priority was to relieve some of the pressures facing current bus customers by presenting them with a short term discount, or whether it really expects non-bus users, aka car owners, to make some sort of three-month shift towards public transport for getting from A to B. Regardless of its pitfalls, recent government spending is certainly the biggest show of support for the bus industry that I’ve seen in my professional career and we should be excited, despite the many crippling challenges facing some operators, about how we turn the millions of pleasantly surprised customer journeys over these three months into meaningful customer relationships which provide stability and a platform for sustainable growth.

Maybe our best short-term hope is that the scheme will have offered some muchneeded financial support to the industry. Our long-term hope though must be that the widespread positive media coverage, the unexpected but surely welcome savings offered up to customers and the attraction of good value, simple fares might have some lasting impact on the perceptions of bus travel.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Shane Grindey spent six years at Blackpool Transport, latterly serving as head of marketing and customer experience. He is now owner and director at Blackpool-based Embroidery Studio

“The timing of the scheme at least couldn’t be better for current or potential bus users”

COMMENT

NICK RICHARDSON

Levelling Up - what are transport’s gains?

The latest funding round for the high profile policy pledge has generated some criticism, but what will it do for transport?

Levelling Up, the government’s flagship initiative, has generated much debate focusing on what it all means and polarising this into who gets what in the North and everywhere else. As we have seen with previous announcements, a political dimension has been added by some in which ‘North’ equates to good and anywhere else equates to less deserving. However, as most accept, Levelling Up is about regional disparities so it was rather odd to hear a radio debate in which funding for Bristol was being questioned because it is in the South i.e. somewhere that isn’t ‘North’ despite it being in need. Whatever perceptions of geography might be, it was claimed that the funding had not been distributed fairly with the result that its impacts would be undermined. Given that it was never explicitly defined in the first place, the cash has been allocated to supposed good causes, some of which are transport-related.

Winners

The first observation is that Levelling Up is a fund for all sorts of things, so transport proposals are up against swimming pools and cultural facilities amongst other worthy causes. The second observation is that it isn’t clear how the transport schemes included relate to other transport programmes, if indeed they do. On top of this is the curious imbalance between different types of transport intervention and what the successful recipients really mean to do with

their allocation. Looking in more detail might supply some answers:

Barton in North Lincolnshire receives £19.7m including A1077 measures ‘to alleviate congestion in the town centre’, cycle measures, more car parking and ‘bus shelter upgrades’. It appears that only the latter does anything for passengers; £41.3m for West Yorkshire Combined Authority is helping bus service improvements, accessible bus stops and bus stations ‘and better highways to improve journey times’;

Hereford’s £19.9m is to ‘boost people’s use of public transport’ plus walking and cycling measures;

Shrewsbury receives £18.7m for a waterside development with links to the rail station

although it isn’t clear why developers are not paying for it in full;

Mid Staffordshire is allocated funds for ‘major road works … to unlock housing and improve bus lanes’ with an apparent emphasis on road capacity;

The Cardiff Bay to Cardiff Central station link is funded with £50.0m, a notable improvement that has been picked out from the rest of the South Wales rail improvement package;

Nearly £50m is for a direct train service in Cornwall involving Newquay, St Austell, Truro and Falmouth which complements the significant improvements to the county’s bus network;

A further £13.5m is allocated in Devon for a new station on the revitalised Okehampton line, again independently of other funding streams;

In Slough, £9.2m is to improve the A355 ‘to better serve pedestrians, cyclists and drivers with faster access for buses to improve journey times’ so aiming to please everyone;

Folkestone’s bus station will be upgraded as part of the town centre overhaul;

£2.3m is for Belfast International Airport to provide electric buses;

Similarly, the North East Combined Authority receives £19.6m for a fleet of 52 electric buses, apparently unconnected from the DfT funding streams for non-diesel buses; Transport for London’s step-free aspirations for two Underground stations will be funded with £43.2m;

London Borough of Sutton receives £14.1m to double the frequency of trains to Belmont, Europe’s ‘leading oncology district’;

A new entrance and footbridge for Peterborough rail station will cost £48.8m, independently of rail upgrade funding streams; and

Kings Lynn in Norfolk receives £20.0m for ‘new bus and cycle routes’.

These total £433m, 21% of the total funding distributed, noting that not all of it is for passenger transport schemes. Other transport measures funded include an array of walking and cycling options plus some road building totalling 22% of the total £2bn package. Having said that, the biggest awards were mainly for passenger transport including bus services in West Yorkshire, Crossrail Cardiff, Cornwall trains, TfL station improvements

The government has made Levelling Up a flagship policy

and Peterborough station. Others with a transport element include transforming Morecambe’s seafront, greener transport for East Lancashire, a Blackpool university campus and improvements to the Port of Dover.

Spatial distribution aside, it is far from clear how these transport improvements, welcome as they are, fit in with other funding streams such as Local Transport Plans (LTPs), rail investment, electric bus funding or anything else. Perhaps they are all regarded by their promoters as essential and hence are put into every funding bid and programme on the basis that one of them might deliver. This is another conundrum for the next round of LTPs if Bus Service Improvement Plans, Local Cycling and Walking Implementation Plans (LCWIPs) and similar are all to be assimilated into a wider package. Other rounds of funding of the ilk of Transforming Cities Fund may well appear and I would predict that they will focus on carefully selected constituencies as a general election approaches. There is an argument to say that all transport schemes should be in LTPs, probably exclusively but it is all rather superfluous if funding awards fall very far short of aspirations as many initiatives such as BSIPs have shown. Perhaps Levelling Up is a good place to seek funding if it hasn’t come from elsewhere.

Competitive bidding

It appears that transport improvements in their various forms are valued as catalysts for regeneration, even if some of them perpetuate the concept that creating new road space reduces traffic. However, it is good to see both rail and bus improvements being funded. The difficulty is that Levelling Up is another of those government lotteries in which many subscribers put a lot of time, effort and cost into bids but only a selection receive anything in return. For those that do, it is certainly welcome but there is the inherent danger that others will be left behind which doesn’t do much for Levelling Up. Returning to the spatial distribution, this resembles the regional planning of old in which investment was targeted at certain areas, supported by interventions in the location of industry and offices. Some of this was and probably remains motivated politically because that is what politicians expect to see. Not all the

plans see the light of day though as the recent car battery ‘gigafactory’ proposal at Blyth in Northumberland has shown. The demise of this approach to planning in favour of free enterprise has perhaps demonstrated that some government interventions are a good idea if they are in the right place at the right time even if what is given to one area undermines the prospects of another. With the rather sporadic nature of funding such as this, it would be surprising if there were startling results, because individual pots of money on their own may not be enough. Every Local Enterprise Partnership will tell you how their patch is the best place for investment and how private sector funding needs to be ‘unlocked’ by the public sector. Local authorities will compete for access to

ministers to tell them how marvellous their areas are for economic growth. In other words, huge scale government funding is needed to achieve investment of any lasting magnitude. Any funding streams need to be linked explicitly with other initiatives to extract the best value for money. A balance needs to be struck between large scale targeted investment and peppering relatively small amounts of funding for a selection of places. Government loves terms such as ‘transformational’ without supporting anything on a scale that will meet all the objectives set. Trying to keep everyone happy is a recipe for poor value decisions.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Nick Richardson is Technical Principal at transport consultancy Mott MacDonald, chair of CILT’s Bus and Coach Policy Group and a former chair of the Transport Planning Society. In addition, he has held a PCV licence for over 30 years.

“Levelling Up is another of those government lotteries”

The Cardiff Bay to Cardiff Central tram-train project was among those awarded Levelling Up funding

Celebrating apprenticeships

As the country marks National Apprenticeship Week, key players in the passenger transport sector shed light on some of the work they have been doing to attract new talent and develop their skills.

This special section of Passenger Transport is devoted to that work. It includes articles on Stagecoach and Go-Ahead Group, which have been industry-leaders on apprenticeships.

Stagecoach was the first public transport organisation to offer a flagship driver apprenticeship scheme as well as an engineering apprenticeship programme, and last year received recognition as a Top 100 apprentice employer (see pages 26-27). Go-Ahead Group, which last month announced plans to hire more than 1,000 apprentices in 2023, was ranked as one of the UK’s top 20 apprenticeship employers in 2022 (see page 28).

Here is a summary of how some other players in the passenger transport sector marked National Apprenticeship Week:

First Bus

First Bus welcomed roads and local transport minister Richard Holden to Reaseheath College to see the progress of the UK’s first dedicated bus and coach engineering facility as part of National Apprenticeship Week.

A partnership between First Bus and Reaseheath helped to establish the bus and coach engineering academy. Apprentices are trained on the current fleet mix alongside the next generation of zero-emission vehicles, creating a clear pathway for future talent to progress into the industry.

Reaseheath College in Nantwich, Cheshire, opened the national centre in partnership with First Bus back in October 2021. Together they have transformed the college’s Hurleston Road site into a bespoke engineering apprentice academy.

Over £650k investment has gone into the training academy since the launch of the

partnership with First Bus. The facility adopts a work experience-style environment to help instill a workplace mindset among apprentices and maintain a seamless switch from depot to learning for the apprentices. First Bus currently has a total of 132 apprentices in the business across England, Scotland and Wales, with 82 of those currently learning at the Reaseheath facility, specialising in mechanical and electrical engineering, coach building and stores.

First Bus chief operating officer Andrew Jarvis said that the creation of the facility at Reaseheath College had been a game-changer for First Bus’s apprenticeship programme. “We’ve been determined to make sure access to vehicles and equipment for technical skills development are best-in-class and the programme is industry leading in order to recreate a realistic depot environment for our apprentices,” he said. “Zero-emission engine technologies are evolving rapidly as First Bus invests in greener fleets to reduce carbon and improve air quality. It’s vitally important that we build a pipeline of highly skilled engineers with the right knowledge to maintain the current and next generation of buses to help futureproof our business.”

Alexander Dennis

Ahead of National Apprenticeship Week, bus builder Alexander Dennis announced enhancements to its AD24 Training Academy courses for apprentices in order to ‘futureproof’ the bus industry’s workforce. The developments to the training are aimed to reflect the evolving industry and close a widening skills gap. The training

will continually be developed further to incorporate new technologies and vehiclesincluding battery-electric and hydrogen-fuel cell buses - alongside traditional diesel systems.

Tony Davis, group aftermarket director at Alexander Dennis, said: “Apprentices coming into the industry today are the future of the workforce that will require a highly specialised skill set. The advancements in vehicles and automotive technology will only continue to develop so we need the next generation of vehicle technicians and engineers to be trained effectively. Apprentices are key to the success of this generation, and National Apprenticeship Week serves as a reminder of a great route into the industry where you can become highly qualified.”

In its most recent Automotive Sector Employment Report, the Institute of the Motor Industry warned of a ‘significant’ skills crisis in the UK’s automotive sector with vehicle technicians being the most in-demand role by 2031. It predicts that there will be 160,000 vacancies in the sector by 2031 and 16% of these will be for technicians. It found that

“It’s vitally important that we build a pipeline of highly skilled engineers”

Andrew Jarvis, First Bus

It’s National Apprenticeship Week and the passenger transport sector has been showcasing its success in delivering apprentices

Richard Holden at Reaseheath College

AD24 Training Academy

the switch to electric vehicles, decreased immigration and the impact of the coronavirus pandemic are fuelling an escalating skills crisis. Training for bus operators’ apprentices is part of the expert training school from the manufacturer’s aftermarket service, AD24. Any company in the bus and coach industry can use the AD24 Training Academy to provide apprentices and other employees with external training for their individual learning and development. All courses are fully approved by the Institute of the Motor Industry.

The AD24 apprentice training course upskills apprentices on the electric systems used on modern buses as well as teaching how to electronically troubleshoot using multi-meters and the latest diagnostic tools. Davis explained: “Whilst mechanical components still form the backbone running gear on a bus, even on diesel buses most mechanical components are now controlled using CAN lines, ECUs and multiplex systems. Our approach is to teach the skills to create a good technician, rather than just a mechanic.”

NAW2023

National Apprenticeship Week

February 6-12, 2023

amazingapprenticeships.com/naw2023

AD24 encourages in-person classroom

training, and this can take place at both Alexander Dennis’s state-of-the-art facilities in Farnborough, opened in summer 2022, or on-site at the location of the trainees.

HS2

HS2 used National Apprenticeship Week to confirm that 300 more apprenticeship jobs will be created. Over 1,100 people of all ages and backgrounds have already secured an HS2 apprenticeship. The week’s announcement puts HS2 within reach of its 2,000 apprenticeships target before civils works even begin on the northern extension of the network. 80 apprenticeship jobs were due to go live this week, with more to follow in the weeks ahead, as HS2 expands the nearly 30,000 strong workforce designing and building the new high speed network between London, the Midlands and Manchester. HS2 has teamed up with colleges and universities across the country to ensure apprentices benefit from a high standard of education and training in their chosen subject area. Their learning is enhanced through hands-on work experience.

Transport for Wales

Transport for Wales showcased its commitment to developing its staff by joining The 5% Club, a movement of more than 700 employers providing ‘earn and learn’ opportunities to develop the skills and talents people need to become more employable and create meaningful careers. Companies joining The 5% Club commit to raising the number of apprentices, sponsored students and graduates on formal programmes to 5% of their total workforce within five years.

Over the last year, TfW have welcomed 122 new apprentices to the business, providing opportunities in engineering, operational and head office roles. Katie Harris, strategic organisational lead - early talent at TfW, said: “At TfW we’re fully aligned with helping the Welsh Government create its target of 125,000 new apprenticeship opportunities by 2026. We understand the importance of providing opportunities for not only young people but for those who may wish for a career change and we’re excited to be committing to and joining The 5% Club.”

LNER

London North Eastern Railway (LNER) marked National Apprenticeship Week with a special video to spotlight the vital role apprenticeships play in supporting the development of it existing employees, and attracting fresh talent into the rail industry. With more than 150 apprentices working across its business, the intercity train operator offers a wide range of apprenticeships from train driving and engineering to HR, finance and customer experience.

Megan Cooke, who worked in hearing care before becoming an apprentice train driver at LNER, said: “By the time I get through the apprenticeship training, I will have every tool needed to be an LNER Azuma train driver. I know that when I’m given my key to the cab and told to go out there by myself for the first time, that I will have earned it.”

Megan Cooke, apprentice train driver at LNER

TfW Apprenticeship Academy

HS2 apprentices

Why support apprenticeships?

This week is National Apprenticeship Week, dedicated to celebrating technical qualifications and the benefits they bring to employers and individuals alike. It is hugely encouraging to see success stories across every sector, with transport offering another avenue for apprenticeships to kickstart futures and keep businesses moving.

Apprenticeships

Apprenticeships provide multiple routes into the transport sector, from transport drivers to transport planners, civil engineers to project management. Providing individuals of all ages with a real job that offers valuable experience, apprenticeships enable individuals of all ages to earn while you learn.

National Highways is an example of an organisation in the transport sector offering both apprenticeships and hosting students on T Level industry placements. Apprentices have

a structured training programme to enable career development along with a new additional qualification. During an apprentice’s time at National Highways, they’re able to get under the skin of the organisation’s functions and operations as well as supporting commercial and procurement teams in their work. Not only can apprenticeships help grow a business’ own talent pool and fill skills gaps, they can also help identify what skills the organisation needs for the future to meet business objectives in the short and long term. For National Highways, all apprentices are guaranteed a job at the end of their programme, meaning the apprenticeship programme is a great way to get to know new employees as well as the students getting to know their place of work.

T Levels

This year sees the first T Level Thursday during National Apprenticeship Week. The day will help to help raise awareness of this new high quality technical qualification, introduced in 2020. T Levels are equivalent to three A Levels and enable young people to gain their qualification through 80% classroom-base study and 20% industry placement with an employer, for a minimum of 45 days, gaining hands on experience in the workplace.

T Levels in construction and engineering are now available, offering students a route in to experience working in the transport sector. These subjects include design, surveying and planning for construction, design and development for engineering and manufacturing, maintenance, installation and repair for engineering and manufacturing and engineering, manufacturing, processing and control.

Transpennine Route Upgrade (TRU) hosted a T Level student on the industry placement and the student was so successful that they have remained with the business on a degree apprenticeship. The student was not only provided with hands on experience in the workplace, taking their education in the classroom to the working world, they also helped to plug the skills gap and strengthen TRU’s future workforce. Daily activities included learning about route assessment and surveying work, travel renewals, overhead line installation, installation and upgrade of civils structures as well as building temporary construction compounds.

T Levels not only opens new doors for students, but also provide employers with more opportunities to help shape the future of their industry and its workforce by gaining early access to the newest talent in the sector.

Across both apprenticeships and T Levels, employers have spoken at length on the benefits of the technical education for both themselves and for individuals.

Celebrate your commitment to apprenticeships and get behind National Apprenticeship Week 2023 - visit: www.apprenticeships.gov.uk/influencers/ national-apprenticeship-week to find out more. If you are interested in finding out more about the benefits of training and employment schemes, visit: find-employer-schemes.education.gov.uk

Peter Mucklow, director of apprenticeships at Department for Education, on the opportunities available for transport employers

Peter Mucklow

“Apprenticeships provide multiple routes into the transport sector”

National Highways offers apprenticeships and hosts students on T Level industry placements

It doesn't have to be just a childhood dream!

A journeyto a brighter future

We ofer grown ups free training to be a bus driver.

Start living your dream with us and join the Stagecoach team. stagecoachbus.com/careers

A key part of our pathway to delivering net zero ambitions

Tracey Smyth, head of people services and talent for Stagecoach, explains the benefits of investing in the sector’s future workforce - and its role in ensuring a greener future

Over the next decade or so, there will be a fundamental change in the fleet of vehicles that deliver the UK’s bus networks. It’s part of an acceleration of the technological transformation that has seen “dirty diesel” already replaced by cleaner diesel engines and a further transition now underway to zero emission buses.

Stagecoach has set an ambitious target to deliver a 100% zero emission UK bus fleet by 2035. This year, the company is planning to increase its electric bus fleet by over 80% as it continues its journey towards being a

net zero business. As part of these plans, Stagecoach will be increasing its electric bus fleet from 184 buses to 343 and just last week launched the first all-electric city bus networks in the UK in Inverness.

These new electric bus networks need dedicated charging infrastructure - as well as a team of skilled technicians to service the fleet

and keep the vehicles running smoothly. Diesel and electric technologies are dramatically different and the skills they need are different. That is why investment in training and apprenticeships to deliver the green engineers of the future are so important.

This transition is also a huge opportunity for the bus sector to attract new talent to the opportunity of working on innovative, cutting-edge technology, providing secure, highly-skilled and sustainable employment.

Apprenticeships have been a core part of Stagecoach’s approach to employee training and development for more than 20 years. We have over 1,400 apprentices in our business and

“It’s about your skills, your knowledge, and your career”

James Rostill

Former engineering apprentice James Rostill urges anyone who is thinking of making the leap into an apprenticeship to ‘just go for it’

Tracey Smyth

we hope to see this number continue to grow.

Stagecoach offers an industry-leading engineering apprenticeship programme, we were the first public transport operator to offer a flagship driver apprenticeship scheme, and we have also recently relaunched our graduate recruitment initiative.

Apprenticeships are key for our continued success, productivity and ultimately helping ensure the UK economy has the skills it needs to grow. They are part of our tailored approach to training that gives our people a suite of development opportunities as they progress in their careers with us. Several of our senior leaders, including managing directors, started with us as drivers and an apprenticeship with Stagecoach gives our people the key skills and understanding of our core business, which is so vital to our local communities.

Local communities themselves can also benefit from our apprenticeship schemes. We provide employment in the local areas we serve, increasing the number of skilled workers in our towns and cities. We also ensure we have a strong workforce who are proud to deliver services to connect local people with their loved ones, jobs and vital services.

Last year, we were proud to be ranked as one of the country’s top 100 apprenticeship employers by the Department for Education, leading the transport sector on the number of new starts. We’ve been recognised by Rate my Apprenticeship, the UK’s leading job resource for young people seeking apprenticeships, as well as being awarded Gold Membership with the 5% Club, a UK-wide charity that aims to contribute to the alleviation of poverty through increased levels of employment, with 5% of our employees in ‘earn and learn’ positions.

This year, the theme of National Apprenticeship Week is ‘Skills for Life’. Unlike other apprenticeship schemes that are only targeted towards school leavers, we pride ourselves on the diverse age and background of our apprentices. Ralph Turtle, a 65-year-old driver at Worthing, completed his apprenticeship in 2021 having previously been a Flybe pilot, giving him a new phase in his career in the transport industry.

James Rostill is among those to benefit from our engineering apprenticeships, and he completed his apprenticeship in our East Midlands business last year. His advice was simple: “Just go for it!” James, who

achieved a distinction grade after finishing his final exams, said the more apprentices put into their training, the more they get out. “Remember who you are doing the apprenticeship for - it’s about your skills, your knowledge, and your career.”

Coral Tilson from Manchester, who completed her driver apprenticeship in 2021, echoed that advice. “Take in as much information as possible and use every new day to your own advantage as you can make what you want of your experience. The skills you can gain from these apprenticeships are limitless,” she said.

Stagecoach has teamed up with leading UK training provider Realise for its driver apprenticeship programme. Kairon Flowers, head of transport at Realise, said: “It’s an innovative programme and we have tailored the curriculum entirely to suit Stagecoach’s vision and business requirements.

“The first part of the apprenticeship programme is qualifying to drive a bus.

We then support and nurture drivers through the early stages of their new role, providing them with the skills required to forge a long-term career in the industry, everything from engaging with customers to taking care of their own wellbeing.”

Last year, a ground-breaking report by Stagecoach - Road map to zero - found that more than one million new passengers could be attracted to use the UK’s bus networks through the switch to zero emission buses. It will require a new approach to skills and training, including awarding bodies working closely with the bus industry to develop a comprehensive syllabus that responds to the changing needs of operators.

This gives the bus sector the opportunity to take a more active approach to engaging with schools and colleges, encouraging young people into a sector at the forefront of technology, innovation and green jobs - and changing perceptions of buses.

It is a hugely exciting time for the bus sector, with massive opportunities for the people that work in it, and apprenticeships will be a critical pathway to making our net zero ambitions a reality.

To find out more about Stagecoach’s trainee driver positions and apprenticeships and how you can apply, visit www.stagecoachbus. com/promos-and-offers/national/careers

Coral Tilson from Manchester completed her driver apprenticeship in 2021

“The skills you can gain from these apprenticeships are limitless”

Coral Tilson

‘There isn’t a typical apprentice’

When you hear the word ‘apprentice’, there’s a tendency to picture a recent school leaver opting for an alternative to university. But if you look around Go-Ahead’s bus and rail training academies, or visit our head office, you might well be surprised.

Go-Ahead recruits more than 1,000 apprentices annually, more than any other company in public transport, to work as bus drivers, train drivers, engineers and in other functions too - including IT, finance, marketing and business.

And there simply isn’t a ‘typical’ apprentice. Our youngest apprentice is 16, the oldest we’ve recruited has been 65 and a third of those we take on are over the age of 40.

At Go-Ahead’s London bus driving academy in Camberwell, a recent recruit is Chelsea Dash, 23.

“I thought I’d do something different to finance, which is all I’ve been doing since I left college,” says Chelsea, who grew up in Haiti in the aftermath of the country’s devastating earthquake. “I must admit it was a bit scary at first - but not anymore. My instructor is good and has instilled a lot of confidence in me.”

Some of our apprentices are career switchers - including an airline pilot and a former professional footballer - who want to forge a new path in public transport and are keen to earn while they learn. Others are people who are changing lifestyle - for example, parents looking to forge a new career after taking time away from the workplace to raise children.

Mehmet Pacaci, 27, worked for the Metropolitan Police before joining Govia Thameslink Railway for an apprenticeship (his second). He says: “Similarly, to working in the police force people may not realise how much public safety is involved in a rail workers day to day. I had an incident recently where a passenger had an epileptic seizure, and I called the relevant medical services, ensuring their safety.”

Since 2018, when Go-Ahead ramped up its apprenticeships programme in response to the introduction of the government’s Apprenticeships Levy, our annual intake has

had a huge impact on the diversity of our business.

At Go-Ahead London, which operates a quarter of the capital’s buses, almost 80% of apprentices are from ethnic minority backgrounds. At Govia Thameslink Railway, our rail business which runs Thameslink, Southern and Great Northern trains, a third are from backgrounds other than white British. Overall a fifth of our transport apprentices are women - a proportion which is higher than the average for our industry, but which we’re trying hard to raise further. And the group has

taken steps to ensure that training is accessible for neurodiverse applicants, including those with autism or dyslexia.

The outcomes from apprenticeships are tangible. Go-Ahead’s bus apprentices stay with the business longer, attract more commendations from passengers and have fewer accidents than those who join the company through other routes.

John Trayner, Go-Ahead’s managing director, London and international bus, who began his career as an apprentice, says: “Bringing apprenticeship training in-house was one of the best decisions we’ve made. It’s paid off not only in financial terms - but in changing our business for the better, too.

Go-Ahead offers apprenticeships at Levels Two up to Seven. Our apprenticeship program is funded by drawing down funds from the Apprenticeships Levy - although if the levy offered more flexibility, we could expand our intake further.

We would like to be able to use funds to market our apprenticeships, allowing us to widen the pool of candidates. And the complex nature of rostering a busy bus or rail network means it would be beneficial to have more leeway in the regularity of stints of classroom training.

Nevertheless, as a company, we were proud to be ranked as one of the UK’s top 20 apprenticeship employers in 2022, and as the highest in the transport industry. We were also named Macro Employer of the Year for the north-east, where Go-Ahead was founded, in the National Apprenticeship Awards.

Apprenticeships are a cornerstone of our strategy for training the next generation of transport workers. Public transport jobs are ever more critical as the UK transitions to a net zero economy. Everybody who comes to work for us plays a vital role in connecting communities, and decarbonising transport, across the UK

For more information about Go-Ahead apprenticeships: www.go-ahead.com/ our-people/apprenticeships

Amy Moore, head of apprenticeships at The Go-Ahead Group, on training the next generation

Mehmet Pacaci

Chelsea Dash

‘Women are hugely under-represented’

CMAC Group has always championed women within the sector, and has conducted a selection of interviews to bring awareness to this important topic. We conclude this series with

Jools Townsend, CEO of Community Rail Network

How long have you worked in the transport sector?

I’ve worked in the third sector (community and voluntary sector) throughout my career, so over 20 years, and most of that time I’ve been with organisations that are involved in promoting and campaigning for safe, sustainable, inclusive transport.

I’ve been chief executive of the Community Rail Network since 2016, and now head up a team of 20 there. We’re a not-for-profit umbrella organisation for the community rail movement, which is a grassroots movement spanning Britain made up of community-based partnerships and voluntary groups. It’s all about helping communities get as much value as possible from their local railways and stations, bringing people together and giving communities a voice on

local rail and local transport. There are hugely wide-ranging activities as it’s all driven by local needs, but celebrating diversity and helping the railway to be more inclusive are key themes.

Prior to Community Rail Network, I was at Brake, a national road safety charity, for 10 years, leading on campaigns and communications activities supporting communities to achieve safer streets and reduce road casualties.

What attracted you to choose to work in the transport sector?

It’s a cliché, but I always felt strongly that I wanted to make a positive difference, and I’ve always been deeply committed to both sustainability and social justice. Going into the third sector therefore made a lot of sense, and enabled me to use my communication skills for social, environmental and economic good. A lot of activity in the third sector is about ensuring everyone can make their voice heard and themselves make a positive contribution, and over the years I’ve developed my appreciation of the importance of engaging and empowering communities to lead on positive change-making from the ground up.

The fact I have ended up with a strong focus through my career on working to empower and involve communities with transport has come about rather by accident. But I’m so pleased I have gone down this route, as I think transport is often under-appreciated in terms of the difference it makes to people’s lives and our local places. There is so much opportunity for greater collaboration between the transport industry and local communities - as is typified in community rail - to unleash greater good from transport and ensure our transport systems work for everyone. Plus we now have a growing imperative to reorientate transport away from dependency on the private car, if we are to swiftly decarbonise and achieve our critical net zero targets, to tackle the climate emergency. Enabling communities to lead on this transition to a low-carbon transport future means we can create more inclusive, healthy and equitable transport as well as cleaner and greener.

What is your greatest professional achievement or career highlight?

Coming into the role of chief executive at Community Rail Network, and stepping up to the mark to show leadership across this thriving, growing grassroots movement - and helping it continue to thrive and grow - made me very proud. Community rail comprises 76 community rail partnerships, 1,200 station friends groups, and well over 10,000 volunteers, so I take my role very seriously, championing and advocating for the movement, and ensuring it’s well supported and constantly developing. A particularly proud moment for me in recent years was running an event at the

Jools Townsend: ‘Do your homework, know your stuff, and get excited’

“I’m so pleased I have gone down this route, as I think transport is often under-appreciated”

international climate talks, COP26, called ‘People Make Transport’. It was run jointly with our third sector partners in the Sustainable Transport Alliance (eight organisations working to advance sustainable, inclusive transport) and focused on how communities can lead the way towards a climate-safe, sustainable transport system that works for everyone, orientated around active travel, public and community transport, and shared mobility. It was a different slant from many of the transport events at COP26 which focused on electric cars, so I was pleased that we were able to show from our experience how we can achieve green and equitable mobility through engaging and empowering communities.

Do you think having more women in senior leadership roles helps to make transport systems safer and more inclusive?

Diversity within senior leadership, and at all levels within organisations, is incredibly important. It helps to broaden the thinking and introduce different lived experiences to strategic and operational planning, discussions and decision-making. It’s also crucial for innovating and being adaptable and sustainable as an organisation.

But as well as transport organisations being inclusive, diverse and representative in terms of their own make-up, it’s also vital that they are outward-looking when thinking about inclusion and diversity, and engaging widely, listening and responding to the communities around them. Sometimes in public transport there’s a tendency to engage and consult existing passengers, and forget about the wider world.

Actually, if we’re to make our railways, buses and other forms of sustainable transport more inclusive, and enable people to mode-shift to reduce private car use, we need to be thinking much more about the many people not using these modes already, and how we can break down barriers. This is a big part of what happens in community rail, working with schools, colleges, local partners, and running engagement activities, to develop rail travel skills, confidence, awareness, and working with rail industry partners to feed in and address local issues and barriers.

Do you feel that women are equally represented within the transport sector?

The statistics unfortunately speak for themselves: clearly women are hugely under-represented in transport, although there is widespread recognition of this and hopefully things are changing. It seems crucial to me if we’re to create a more inclusive and sustainable transport sector and system.

It’s worth mentioning that within the community rail movement we’ve made a lot of progress in achieving greater gender balance across those working and volunteering in community rail. However, we’re conscious that we need to continue to increase the diversity and representativeness of the movement, and there’s a lot of attention to the need to involve more young people especially.

Have you ever faced any challenges as a female working in this industry? Not in recent years, but earlier in my career I experienced on numerous occasions older males scoffing at my young age and therefore lack of experience (I’ve always looked a bit younger than I am, a blessing in many ways, but not professionally), which I believe was related to gender too.

At one point, Brake happened to employ quite a few younger women, and I remember being referred to condescendingly as ‘Brake’s young ladies’ by one of our partners. I have also noticed throughout my career that when as a woman you put forward a strong, passionate argument, however robust your reasoning and evidence base, you are sometimes seen as being ‘headstrong’ or ‘emotional’, an accusation which I think is seldom levelled at men. I don’t think I’ve ever experienced a serious challenge or discrimination, but I guess it’s impossible to know for sure whether any doors were closed or opportunities didn’t come off related to being female.

What should the industry be doing now and in the future to attract and retain more diverse talent?

Engaging with communities is key, and showing that transport is there to serve and benefit everyone in society, and therefore is interested in everyone’s views, voices and contributions. I read an academic paper recently which referred to a need to ‘widen political agency’ in transport, if we’re to build a more sustainable transport future. I think that also applies to this question.

I also think the transport sector can do more to show its importance to society, our local and global environments, and people’s lives. Transport doesn’t exist to serve our economy: it exists to serve people (which the economy also exists to serve of course!) I think starting to use that kind of language will help the sector connect more with younger generations and attract more diverse people.

Why should women be interested in working in the transport industry? What does it have to offer?

As I’ve said, I think transport is often under-estimated in its importance to people, our lives, and our communities. It is of course fundamental to our ability to access opportunities we want, see people and places, socialise, and live the lives we want, and literally to go places! There are so many different roles to play in the sector, including the opportunity to engage with communities and people in the third sector who are passionate about transport, such as the thousands of wonderful volunteers and officers in community rail.

What advice would you give to other women who would like to work in the transport sector and those who aspire to be a senior leader in this industry? My general advice to women (or anyone!) wanting to break into a new area of work is to do your homework, know your stuff, and get excited, so you can go into it with conviction and confidence, and definitely don’t be afraid to show your passion for it.

What does International Women’s Day mean to you?

IWD for me is a symbol of how far we’ve come, but also how far we have to go in building a truly inclusive society where everyone can feel comfortable and confident and live their lives to the full. I think it’s also a fantastic celebration of the huge contribution women have made throughout history - much of which has been historically side-lined so is so important to bring to the fore - and the contribution we all have to make to a happy, inclusive sustainable future.

To find out more about CMAC Group, visit www.cmacgroup.com

“We’ve made a lot of progress in achieving greater gender balance”

OIL MARKET REPORT £

What will happen to oil prices in 2023?

Last year we once again correctly forecasted the direction that oil prices would take - so here are our predictions for the year ahead

It’s the new year so time for our annual review of the last 12 months, with some forward-looking predictions thrown in for good measure. In last year’s report (PT257) we once again correctly predicted the direction oil prices would take and the scale of the price movements. Even without the reckoning of the Ukrainian invasion (which we didn’t predict), we still forecasted brutal price rises and the strong likelihood of a major price spike; “we can say that the supply-demand situation remains critical and in fact the danger of a major price spike looks more likely this year than it did in 2021”. We pointed out that declining investment in oil production coupled with rapid post-Covid demand recovery was putting huge pressure on prices. We also drew attention to the incredible situation with regards gas, which by January 22 (again, before the Ukrainian invasion) was already trading at stratospheric levels. We projected that this would encourage major energy users to switch away from gas (to oil), thus putting more pressure on the price of crude.

With a backdrop like that, it was little wonder that when Russia invaded Ukraine, the effect on oil markets was seismic, with crude hitting almost $140 per barrel by March. However, if we actually consider the year as a whole (rather than the crazy months of Spring), the overall price trajectory of oil - whilst broadly

in an upwards direction - wasn’t perhaps as spectacular as might be assumed. On the first working day of 2022, the price of crude was $77 per barrel and yes, by March it had risen to $138. But by the final quarter of the year, prices were trending heavily downwards, such that by the final working day (December 30), the price was actually “only” $86 per barrel - an inflation matching increase of 12% ($9 per barrel).

The devil, however, is always in the detail. The first factor that ensured the Great British public experienced more than a mere $9 per barrel movement, was our old friend the exchange rate. Oil is priced in $, which means it has to be converted to £ when it is sold in the UK. On the December 30 (2022) the price of diesel was $958 per tonne and the exchange rate was $1.2029 to the £ GBP. That gave a price of £796 per tonne and a pence per litre (ppl) cost of 67.32. Now compare the year-end exchange rate to the same day 12 months earlier (December 30, 2021), when there was $1.3544 to the pound. If we applied that 2021 exchange rate to the 2022 price of diesel ($958), we actually would have ended the year at £707 per tonne (958/1.3544) or 59.79ppl. That’s an increase of 7.50ppl (+10%) as a result of the falling value of sterling, which has to be added to the basic 12%

increase in the core cost of crude.

“And there’s more” (Jimmy Cricket, ITV, 1985-88). If there was one stand-out fuel story of 2022 it was not the price of crude, nor the crashing value of the pound, but the soaring cost of diesel. And here again we had extraordinary movements in the price. Diesel started 2022 (January 4) at $677 per tonne and therefore logically should have ended the year around 12% higher ($760) if it had followed the same trajectory as crude. Imagine the scenes then, when it turned out that diesel ended the year over 40% up at $958 per tonne, which when added to the impact of the exchange rate, gave an increase of 25ppl (60%) in the cost of diesel.

This brings us nicely on to our predictions for the new year, with number one being that there will be much greater focus in 2023 on refined fuels and, in particular, diesel.

Prediction number two is that for the first time since the Ukrainian invasion, Russia will begin to feel the pinch of sanctions and this will also be diesel related. Whereas the Western boycotts of Russian crude in 2022 simply reversed product flows away from Europe and into China and India, this will not be the case with Russian diesel (which will receive the strongest sanctions yet as of February of this year). The Asian economies all need crude to keep their refineries running, but what they don’t need is ready-made diesel from Russia, which would only undermine Chinese and Indian refining capacity. In effect, Russian diesel will have nowhere to go and will be removed from the market - in the West because of sanctions and in the “East” because of refinery protectionism. As a result (prediction three), we can expect a major diesel spike in the first half of 2023, along with significant damage to the Russian refining industry (prediction four).

Our next forecast is that once again the correlation between diesel and crude will evaporate, but this will be short-lived as non-Russian refining capacity ramps up and soon fulfils demand. By the second half of the year, diesel will start coming down in price and re-correlate with stabilising crude oil prices. And that’s our final and most bold prediction for 2023, which is that crude will be lower in price this year than in 2022. Oh… one more… oil markets this year will not be boring. They never are!

PORTLAND FUEL ANALYTICS - FEBRUARY 2023

James Spencer Portland

“By the second half of the year, diesel will start coming down in price”

GREAT MINSTER GRUMBLES

Is this pressing ‘go’ on rail reform?

Anybody who was hoping that our secretary of state, Mark Harper, was going to use the annual George Bradshaw rail lecture on February 7 to make an announcement on the final shape of our planned rail reforms - as indeed I suggested in my last column (PT281) might be the case - will have been disappointed. I’m not really sure we are any the wiser on core aspects of the reform proposals and certainly none the wiser as to when we might see a Bill putting effect to those parts of the reforms that require legislation.

Those Conservative MPs and former rail ministers who have been pressing ministers not to turn Great British Railways (GBR) into a “Fat Controller” may be reassured by the secretary of state’s comment that GBR won’t be “Network Rail 2.0”. But what does this mean, exactly? What will GBR’s actual duties and responsibilities be? They will be reassured by his comment that there will be an “enhanced” role for the private sector. Fine. But what exactly will this “enhanced” role look like? He talked of “maximising competition, innovation and growth” - but how will the private sector be free to do this? Perhaps we will just have to see the shape and size of the new Passenger Service Contracts (PSCs) before we actually find out - which perhaps isn’t entirely unreasonable given the comment that they won’t be a one-size fits all approach.

The secretary of state told his audience

that the prime minister and chancellor both endorsed his rail reform plans. He said that “as a whole government we are pressing ‘go’ on rail reform”. Let’s remind ourselves that the core elements of the Williams-Shapps Plan for Rail are the establishment of GBR and the creation of new PSCs to replace a “broken” franchise system, with the PSCs to be procured and managed by GBR. Legislation is required to do this. These are the central elements of the reforms and without legislation can’t be put in place.

So if both the prime minister and the chancellor are fully behind the reform plans, why is it proving so difficult to get the necessary parliamentary time to actually get the Bill through parliament? We were told that the department would respond to last year’s consultation on GBR’s legislative powers “by the summer”. So we may not even see a reference to a Bill in the King’s Speech in May - although a Bill could still be introduced at some point in the next parliamentary session. But it really is beginning to feel as if we may not see one this side of the general election. It’s true that aspects of rail reform proposals don’t require legislation - but they didn’t really need a rail review either. But to say that the

government is pressing ‘go’ on rail reform is, dare I say it, a touch economical with the truth.

If there is no legislation before the general election, and with Labour looking increasingly likely to form the new government after that election, we risk further delay as new Labour ministers reflect on what they want to do. Actually, if it were down to me I would simply enact the Williams-Shapps Plan for Rail Set up GBR as a “Fat Controller”, put it in charge of pretty much everything and allow the public sector Operator of Last Resort to take over each franchise as the current contracts come to an end and, hey presto, you have a renationalised railway (rolling stock leasing companies aside).

The Conservative opposition could hardly complain because a GBR “Fat Controller” is really what the Plan for Rail proposed, and the Conservatives set up the Operator of Last Resort and had it take over some franchises too. Labour would really be doing no more than enact what the Conservatives had planned. OK, the Passenger Service Contracts may have been owned and run by private companies but under contracts whose terms and conditions would have been set by the public sector - as indeed they are now.

It’s true that the secretary of state has said there will now be an “enhanced” role for the private sector, but in the absence of seeing the detail of what this means, it’s hard to tell how enhanced an enhanced role will be. And anyway, the Plan for Rail certainly didn’t envisage an enhanced role for the private sector, and as this plan was endorsed by a Conservative secretary of state who was even willing to put his name to it, all Labour need say is that they are enacting a reform package originally proposed by a Conservative administration! Simples!

The secretary of state obviously sought to set an upbeat tone in his speech, but to my mind it raised more questions than it answered on some central aspects of the reform proposals. And so rail reform drags on.

Our Whitehall insider imagines what’s going on inside the minds of the mandarins at Great Minster House, home of the DfT

“The secretary of state obviously sought to set an upbeat tone in his speech, but to my mind it raised more questions than it answered”

O’Neil steps down as Arriva’s UK bus boss

Jens Abromeit will take over the role in late March

Arriva has announced that Paul O’Neil, managing director of the group’s UK bus operation, is to step down from his position at the end of March. He will be succeeded by Jens Abromeit, currently the group’s chief transformation officer.

O’Neil joined Arriva in 2019 and had a background in manufacturing. He joined the group from Rolls Royce’s civil aircraft engine business. Since then he has steered the group’s UK bus operation through the Covid-19 pandemic. As a result his tenure has seen the group undertake a number of internal reorganisations and the retrenchment of a number of its operations.

Arriva said O’Neil had decided to step down from the group in order to “pursue a new and exciting opportunity back in the manufacturing industry”.

Mike Cooper, Arriva’s group chief executive, said O’Neil has led the UK bus division through challenging global events.

“I am grateful to him for his leadership and dedication throughout this time,” he said.

APPOINTMENTS PEOPLE

URBAN TRANSPORT GROUP

“I

Abromeit joined Arriva in August 2022 as chief transformation officer, driving initiatives and change programmes aiming to help Arriva become the leading passenger transport partner across Europe. As part of his role on the Arriva Management Board, Abromeit worked closely with the UK Bus division which will help to ensure a smooth transition.

“Jens brings deep operational experience to the role with a focus on delivering high performing, sustainable operations for customers and stakeholders,” said Cooper. “ He has more than 25 years in leadership roles for companies and international groups in Germany, France, Russia and China. I look forward to continuing to work with Jens.”

Tributes paid to former UKBA director

Ian

UK Bus Awards organisers have paid tribute to Ian Smith who died suddenly at his home on February 2 aged 72.

Smith joined the bus industry in 1968 as a trainee at Midland Red in Birmingham before moving to the newly formed National Travel organisation in 1973.

He left the transport industry in 1978 but returned to work as commercial director of the

WINTER TO STEP DOWN IN WALES

Stagecoach has announced that Nigel Winter, managing director of its bus operations in South Wales, is to step down in May after more than 17 years with the group, and over four decades in the wider bus industry.

Steve Warrener, Transport for Greater Manchester’s managing director, has been named as the new chair of the Urban Transport Group. Warrender (pictured), who is also finance and corporate services director at TfGM, has worked at the organisation for 15 years. His appointment follows the end of the two-year term of outgoing chair Laura Shoaf, the chief executive of West Midlands Combined Authority.

STAGECOACH GROUP

Stagecoach has announced the appointment of Peter Jenkins as head of safety. Jenkins (pictured) has experience across public sector services, hospitality, FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods) and logistics. He joins Stagecoach from Dalziel where he was group health and safety manager. In his new role he will work alongside Sharon VyeParminter, group health, safety and environment director.

STAGECOACH MANCHESTER Stagecoach

Ian Smith: 1950-2023

UK Bus Awards and UK Coach Awards for 18 years from 1999 until retirement in 2017.

“He will be sorely missed,” said UK Bus Awards director and close friend Chris Cheek.

Winter joined the bus industry in 1980 with West Yorkshire Road Car. He joined Stagecoach in 2006, with time spent as operations director in the North East of England, as managing director of Stagecoach Cumbria and North Lancashire and more recently as managing director of Stagecoach South Wales, a position he has held for almost eight years.

Manchester has appointed Alan French as head of operations. French (pictured) started his career as a bus driver with Stagecoach Merseyside and South Lancashire in 2005. He quickly progressed into management roles and he was latterly performance, development and training manager where he led on operational standards.

Smith was commercial director for 18 years

Nigel Winter to leave Stagecoach after 17 years

want to take the opportunity to wish him every success in his next role.”

Jens Abromeit

DIVERSIONS

Joe swaps Caribbean TV for the Metro

Ex weather presenter finds new life in the North East

A TV weather presenter from the Cayman Islands has given it all up... for a customer service job on the Tyne and Wear Metro.

Joe Avary’s previous job saw him presenting weather forecasts and compiling news reports for the Cayman Islands’ only local TV station, but insists he has no regrets leaving it all behind as his smooth American accent is proving popular with passengers.

In 2021, Joe, who is originally

BUS LANES OPENED FOR SCHOOL RUN?

As bus operators have to do more and more work to prove that bus priority measures really do help them keep people moving, along comes a new campaign that aims

from Albuquerque in New Mexico, and his wife Claire, who is from Jarrow, left the paradise island to return to the UK.

It marked the end of a 23-year media career, one that took him

to clog up bus lanes with parents on the school run.

Website LeaseCar.uk has launched the campaign to allow parents to bypass queuing traffic by using bus lanes to drop their offsping off at school. They claim that allowing parent to use “often empty” bus lanes would save time and stop children and parents being late for school and work respectively.

“Parents and carers up and down the UK can really relate to the frustration of the school run, with your kids arguing in the back

across the USA as a cameraman and a journalist, culminating in his dream job working in the Caribbean. As a senior reporter at Cayman 27, Joe not only presented daily weather forecasts, he also provided local news coverage for the tiny island.

Now he spends his days checking tickets and his public address announcements in a smooth American accent are proving a hit.

“People don’t believe me, but it’s been a great experience.” said Joe. “It was a big change leaving the Cayman Islands, for sure, but I am really loving it here. The people are great. I just need to get used to the Geordie accent a bit more.”

WHAT PASSENGERS ANNOY ME? LET ME COUNT THE WAYS

London bus driver Nadine Bassey recently took to video clip-sharing app TikTok to reveal the four types of bus passengers that get on her nerves.

“These are the things I can’t stand about passengers on a bus, let’s go,” she said.

The first she dubbed, ‘the blind one’ and showed her pretending to be a passenger asking if the bus went to a certain place, “despite it saying that on the front of the bus in huge letters”.

telling you you’ve forgotten their PE kit or lunchbox,” said Tim Alcock from LeaseCar.uk.

“Bus lanes often allow motorcycles and taxis, and it can be really annoying knowing your kids are going to be late to school because you’re stuck in a queue whilst other vehicles sail past in the often empty bus lanes.

“It poses an obvious question for local authorities, if getting kids to school on time is a priority: why aren’t parents on the school run allowed in bus lanes too?”

Here’s a solution: use the bus?

The second passenger was the one she called the ‘confused one’, and the clip showed her as a passenger who had no idea how the contactless payment worked and held up the line of people trying to get on as they fussed.

The next was the ‘broke one’, who did the same thing by not having enough money on their card for the fare. And finally was ‘the one that never pays nor has any manners’ who breezed straight onto the bus without even thinking about paying.

Charming!

SEEN SOMETHING QUIRKY?

Why not drop us a line at editorial@passengertransport.co.uk

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