Passenger Transport: October 20, 2023

FO EV RT ER NI Y GH T

ISSUE 299 2O OCTOBER 2023

NEWS, VIEWS AND ANALYSIS FOR A SECTOR ON THE MOVE

Waters attacks ‘grubby’ Go-Ahead boss quits as group Westminster tactics exits Germany NEWS

Welsh Government’s deputy minister for climate change tells audience in London that the government is no longer making long term decisions

The UK Government was accused of abandoning serious efforts to achieve net zero in favour of short term electoral gain at last week’s National Transport Awards in London.

Lee Waters, the Welsh Government’s deputy minister for climate change, told guests: “Despite the slogan, there’s no longer a pretence that this government are thinking about long-term decisions,” said Waters.

“There’s no strategy, it’s all tactics and pretty grubby ones at that.”

The National Transport Awards ‘Book of Winners’ accompanies this edition of Passenger Transport.

Lee Waters: ‘There’s no strategy, it’s all tactics and pretty grubby ones at that’

FULL STORY: PAGES 12-13

‘Pause sale of HS2 land’ - Armitt National Infrastructure Commission chair says decision to sell property was a ‘mistake’ The government should pause its sale of land acquired for Phase 2 of HS2 for up to three years, according to Sir John Armitt, chair of the National Infrastructure Commission.

In its recent announcement on HS2, the government revealed a plan to quickly dispose of properties that had been purchased in order to extend the line north of Birmingham.

“I think it’s a mistake,” Armitt told the BBC this week. “I think that the land should be kept for at least two

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or three years to give the opportunity for people to revisit that and look at what can be done within that space and find a more cost-effective solution, not write it off today.

“I am disappointed because I think

“The land should be kept for at least two or three years” Sir John Armitt

it’s what we often describe as a sort of knee-jerk, snap reaction.”

Norman Baker from Campaign for Better Transport supported Armitt’s view. “Selling this land will stunt the growth of rail freight and place severe restrictions on future freight movements,” he said. “This sale should be paused until after the general election next year when the next government can revisit ideas on how to ease congestion on the West Coast Main Line.”

04

Christian Schreyer agrees to step down

NEWS

CPT calls for long term funding deal

05

Group also urges action on bus speeds

COMMENT

‘Transport needs clarity and certainty’

14

Jason Prince makes plea to government

COMMENT

‘Either we all win, or we all lose’

16

Claire Haigh on the net zero challenge

SPECIAL REPORT

Brent Toderian talks transport

22

Cities expert spoke at CPT Scotland event

18/10/2023 16:48

CONTENTS

PASSENGER TRANSPORT PO Box 5496, Westbury BA13 9BX 020 3950 8000 editorial@passengertransport.co.uk

Westminster wobbles - but we still have champions Having resurrected the rhetoric about the “war on the motorist”, the government ended the broad political consensus on the need to prioritise sustainable transport, whereby we make a greater number of trips on public transport and active Robert Jack travel and fewer by car. In hindsight, it is perhaps Managing Editor remarkable that this consensus held for as long as it did, and we may now have to wait a long time before it returns.

Earlier this month, when he axed HS2 north of Birmingham, the prime minister pledged that “every single penny” of the £36bn saved would be ring-fenced for transport. However, analysis of the government’s plans reveals that much of the money will be used to build roads and a quarter of it (£8.3bn) will be spent on fixing potholes.

Having declared itself “proudly pro-car”, the government is taking money from public transport to pay for tarmac. Modal shift in reverse.

It is worth noting, however, that the consensus is holding outside of Westminster. This month, Scotland’s transport minister told a transport audience that “we will stand firm if you stand firm” and the Welsh Government’s deputy minister for climate change has robustly reasserted the case for putting modal shift at the heart of their plans (see pages 12-13). Elected mayors, including Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, are sticking to their plans to achieve modal shift and reap all of the benefits that will bring.

Going forward, they will be the sustainable transport champions.

HAVE YOUR SAY Contact us with your news, views and opinion at: editorial@passengertransport.co.uk PASSENGER TRANSPORT editorial@passengertransport.co.uk forename.surname@ passengertransport.co.uk Telephone: 020 3950 8000 Managing Editor & Publisher Robert Jack Deputy Editor Andrew Garnett Contributing Writer Rhodri Clark Directors Chris Cheek, Andrew Garnett, Robert Jack OFFICE CONTACT DETAILS Passenger Transport Publishing Ltd PO Box 5496, Westbury BA13 9BX, UNITED KINGDOM Telephone (all enquiries): 020 3950 8000

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IN THIS ISSUE 16

STAGECOACH LEADS UK BUS AWARDS SHORTLIST

18

FORGET HS2 AND FOCUS ON LOCAL INVESTMENTS

20

HS2 FALLOUT: A LOOK AT THE CHALLENGES

25

LABOUR POLICY DIFFERS LITTLE FROM TORY

Stagecoach, the UK’s biggest bus operator, has once again received the highest number of shortlisted entries (46) at this year’s UK Bus Awards, a third of all finalists. The group has been shortlisted in 17 award categories.

ORGANISATION

PAGE

Alstom 7 Arriva 11 Arriva Cymru 8, 10 Blackpool Transport 11 Brighton & Hove Buses 11 Campaign for Better Transport 1 Cardiff Bus 8 CPT (UK) 5 Evolyn 7 First Bus 6 First Cymru 8 FirstGroup 6 First Rail 6 Globalvia 4 Go-Ahead Germany 4 Go-Ahead Group 4, 11 Go South Coast 11 Grant Palmer 11 GWR 9 Lothian Buses 11 Lumo 6 Mobico 7 National Express Transport Solutions 7 National Transport Awards 1, 12-13 McGill’s Bus Group 11 Newport Transport 8 Nottingham City Transport 11 Phil Anslow & Sons Coaches 10 Preston Bus 11 Railway Industry Association 9 Reading Buses 11 Sanders Coaches 11 Stagecoach Group 11 Stagecoach Midlands 11 Stagecoach in South Lancashire 11 Translink 11 Transport for Wales 9 Uno 11

The public transport community needs to recognise the country has big problems to solve and concentrate on where it can really help, says Alex Warner. “I could list 50 things that worry me more than transport.” he adds.

The demise of the second phase of HS2 has implications for rail networks and other future major projects.

“Half built, HS2 needs to clarify its role given that it now has limited scope and has a major problem deciding what it is for,” says Nick Richardson.

Our Whitehall insider imagines what’s going on inside the minds of the mandarins at Great Minster House, home of the Department for Transport.

With a Labour government looking increasingly likely, Labour’s policies for rail are similar to the Conservatives’.

REGULARS NEWS NEWS EXTRA COMMENT SPECIAL REPORT GRUMBLES CAREERS DIVERSIONS

04 12 14 22 25 26 28

www.passengertransport.co.uk

18/10/2023 17:24

ROUND-UP NEWS

Report urges radical action on transport National Infrastructure Commission outlines bold plan to enhance UK infrastructure, focusing on public transport and long-term funding INVESTMENT

The prospect of significantly enhancing the UK’s infrastructure to bolster economic growth and align with climate objectives is not only within reach but also financially feasible, according to a new report from the National Infrastructure Commission.

In their second National Infrastructure Assessment, which occurs every five years, the independent advisory body for the government has outlined a sweeping plan for the transformation of the nation’s energy, transport and vital networks over the next three decades in a bid to spark growth.

Key recommendations involve significant upgrades to the most congested urban transport networks in England. The intention is to unlock economic potential stifled by the growing problems associated with urban congestion, where increasing demand for mobility in city regions is expected.

To achieve this, a substantial investment of £22bn between 2028 and 2045 is proposed for mass transit projects in cities outside London, focusing primarily on Birmingham, Bristol, Leeds, and Manchester, and subsequently extending to other cities demonstrating a strong case for connectivity and capacity improvements.

The report continues: “Mass transit, using buses, trams and rail, or a combination of these, can increase capacity in the cities www.passengertransport.co.uk

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NIC urges a focus on mass transit projects

with the highest employment growth projections, connect parts of cities that were previously poorly served by public transport, and can carry substantially higher numbers of people than cars.

Investment in mass transit should be aligned with policies on land use and housing within cities.”

Addressing the strain on transport infrastructure is not limited to investing in public transport networks alone. The commission suggests that city regions benefiting from new public transit schemes should concurrently seek ways to reduce car journeys into their city

“Mass transit... can increase capacity in cities with the highest growth projections”

centres, especially during peak hours. However, it warns these strategies will largely depend on local leaders and be considered when public transport options provide viable alternatives to private vehicles.

A key recommendation is the devolution of five-year transport budgets to local authorities for strategic transport. This decentralisation would enable locally-led infrastructure strategies that align with housing and land use, and ensure inclusivity.

“Government has made progress with the City Region Sustainable Transport Settlements (CRSTS) and the recent ‘trailblazer’ deals for Greater Manchester and the West Midlands,” the report said. “The CRSTS model should now be extended beyond the mayoral combined authorities, and the ‘trailblazer’ deals rolled out to all mayoral combined authorities.”

The commission also warns that London requires a long-term funding settlement to enhance its public transport network.

“Short term funding deals for Transport for London should be replaced with longer term capital settlements, sufficient to enable the enhancement and expansion of London’s transport services to support housing and economic growth,” it adds.

The report highlights the requirement for more funding to maintain and enhance longdistance road and rail networks.

It calls for targeted upgrades to improve underperforming routes between key locations and urges the government to establish an integrated interurban transport strategy by the end of 2026.

Regarding rail infrastructure, given the recent decision on HS2, the commission urges a comprehensive, urgently needed long term strategy addressing capacity and connectivity issues in the North and Midlands. This involves a swift review of rail priorities, in collaboration with local leaders, to create a costeffective project portfolio with clear timelines.

The report recommends reforming public spending frameworks for infrastructure projects to enhance project efficiency. This involves fixed multi-year budgets for major projects, allowing fund allocation flexibility across years, and establishing “project expenditure limits” to safeguard smaller projects within the same government department.

Writing in the report’s foreword, Sir John Armitt, chair of the National Infrastructure Commission, said: “We stand at a pivotal moment in time, with the opportunity to make a major difference to this country’s future.

But we need to get on with it.”

20 October 2023 | 03

18/10/2023 17:19

NEWS ROUND-UP

Christian Schreyer joined Go-Ahead in 2021

Go-Ahead boss quits as group exits Germany London-based group focuses on future growth as it announces Christian Schreyer is to step down and sells German rail business to Austria’s ÖBB LEADERSHIP

In an unexpected move, The Go-Ahead Group has announced chief executive Christian Schreyer will step down at the end of this month. He will be succeeded

by Miguel Ángel Parras, chief investment officer at Go-Ahead’s co-owner, Globalvia.

Schreyer, who joined the London-based group in 2021, played a pivotal role in guiding the company through its shift from public to private ownership last October. As part of the transition, he was tasked with executing The Next Billion Journeys strategy, forming a new executive leadership team, addressing challenges in international rail, and driving growth in the bus business through acquisitions and tender wins.

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“I have agreed with the board that this is the right time to step down,” said Schreyer. “I am very proud of the resilience shown by the business in adapting to change over the last two years. Successful service businesses are all about people, and Go-Ahead has some of the best in the industry.”

Miguel Ángel Parras, who will

Miguel Ángel Parras

assume the role of CEO, has been the chief investment officer at Globalvia since 2019. He was instrumental in the acquisition of Go-Ahead for the Globalvia consortium from the inception of the transaction in early 2022.

With a background in business development and financing investments in infrastructure and transportation, Parras has extensive experience in these areas. Before joining Globalvia, he spent a decade at FCC, a prominent infrastructure group.

He began his career in transport engineering and consultancy, including positions at INECO and PROES Consultores.

Meanwhile, former Caledonian Airways chief executive Clare Hollingsworth, who has been the non-executive chair of

Go-Ahead since October 2019, will step down from the board at the end of the year. She oversaw the change in ownership and leadership transition during her tenure. A successor will be announced in due course.

In addition to the leadership transition, Go-Ahead has also revealed plans to sell its German rail business to ÖBB, the Austrian state railway. The transaction is subject to competition approval and is expected to be finalised by the end of this year.

Go-Ahead Germany currently operates three rail contracts in Baden-Wurttemberg and two in Bavaria. Operations commenced in Baden-Wurttemberg in June 2019, with Bavaria following in December 2021. The company has delivered positive outcomes for passengers, including new trains, high customer service levels, and increased capacity.

The sale of Go-Ahead Germany is intended to “future-proof the business and create a platform for ÖBB to enter the German regional rail market and expand in the country”.

In a message to group staff, Schreyer said Go-Ahead had had to grapple with a difficult operating environment in Germany and claimed the contracts signed at the time of the group’s entry into the market were financially unsustainable.

He continued: “The board of Go-Ahead has decided that the Germany business is no longer core to our strategy and the board is pleased that we have found a good long-term buyer in ÖBB with positive plans for investment. We remain fully committed to rail elsewhere in the world... This is a big move for Go-Ahead - but it is a positive one. It will allow Go-Ahead to focus on promising growth opportunities elsewhere.” www.passengertransport.co.uk

18/10/2023 16:21

CPT calls for long-term funding deal for buses Trade association also calls for strategies to increase bus speeds FUNDING

Ahead of the government’s Autumn Budget Statement, the Confederation of Passenger Transport (CPT) has called for long-term funding for buses in England and a fair distribution of investment across regions.

In a briefing paper, CPT senior policy adviser Rebecka Steven presented several key points addressing the future of the sector and proposed a series of interventions that, if funded, could assist with wider policy goals.

Steven said CPT welcomed the 21-month funding settlement but underscored the necessity for a parallel five-year settlement, aligning with the rail sector. Such

DEADLOCK FOR MASS TRANSIT Metro mayor puts the brakes on Bristol plans PLANNING

The fate of Bristol’s mass transit plan is uncertain, as political leaders have failed to reach a consensus on the way forward.

At a meeting of the West of England Combined Authority (WECA), metro mayor Dan Norris rejected a proposal to allocate £650,000 towards exploring route options. This decision hinged on the inclusion of underground sections, which he claimed were unaffordable and unrealistic.“I won’t waste a penny more of taxpayers’ money on an underground,” he added.

This stance was in contrast www.passengertransport.co.uk

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an arrangement would instill confidence in bus operators and local transport authorities, enabling long-term investment planning while upholding highquality passenger services.

She also made the case for increased investment, highlighting that this would lead to improved networks, lower fares and more comprehensive services.

“To illustrate the outcomes achieved by different funding levels, £400m adjusted for inflation, would enable operators and local authorities to continue to provide broadly the same level of network as is currently in place,” Steven said.

“More funding could enable a combination of more comprehensive networks, increased frequency of services and lower fares, whilst less

would see some contraction of the network and/or reduced frequencies.”

CPT emphasised the need for equitable funding distribution to ensure that all regions have access to robust bus networks, addressing concerns of regional disparities resulting from decisions in the broader transport sector.

Steven also stressed that targeted investment in improving average bus speeds was crucial.

Bus speeds in England declined by 3.1% in 2018/2019 compared to 2014/2015, leading to a 2.4% increase in the number of required buses. Applying this trend to the entire English fleet would necessitate 574 additional vehicles at a cost of £120.5m.

“A 10% increase in bus speeds could increase passenger demand

to Bristol’s mayor, Marvin Rees, as well as the leaders of South Gloucestershire and Bath & North East Somerset Councils, who were in favour of a comprehensive exploration of all options before ruling anything out.

Rees said there was a need to pursue the best options until concrete evidence suggests otherwise, asserting that they hadn’t reached that point yet. He has previously stressed the importance of creating a mass transit network to prevent Bristol and the West of England region from falling behind other major UK cities.

The meeting also considered the potential for legal challenges if all options, including tunnelling under busy roads, weren’t thoroughly examined. Despite these

concerns, Norris remained firm in his belief that the mass transit project’s fundamental viability was questionable. “We need to stop pretending a project that everyone knows is not going to happen is still a viable option,” he added While a WECA report recommended advancing the scheme, Norris’s own transport

Norris: ‘I won’t waste a penny more of taxpayer’s money’

by 2.5% and reduce operating costs by 8%, as well as delivering huge benefits for accessibility, economic efficiency and the environment,” she added.

Meanwhile, Steven called for socially and economically necessary services to be placed on a statutory footing to secure vital routes, particularly in rural areas.

To ensure a seamless transition towards zero-emission buses, CPT stressed the necessity for the government to secure long-term, predictable funding for both zero-emission buses and their infrastructure. Steven called for a move away from bidding for funding in a move that would provide greater certainty.

CPT recommend an annual allocation of about £200 million to support the purchase of new zero-emission vehicles. Steven urged an accelerated process for the Local Integrated Transport Settlements to enable these funds to be used to submit bids for the ZEBRA 2 zero-emission bus funding mechanism.

experts proposed the need for a more transformative system after reviewing feasibility reports and assessments. The project included four potential routes with the possibility of tunnels under the most congested areas.

The decision is at odds with a Bristol business group which has called for an “ambitious and green mass transit system”. Business West said surveys of its membership of more than 20,000 firms had continually seen transport identified as “a key regional weakness”.

“We currently have some of the worst congestion in the country, meaning too many people are stuck in traffic rather than contributing to make our region stronger,” said Business West managing director Phil Smith.

20 October 2023 | 05

18/10/2023 16:50

NEWS ROUND-UP

DRT review reveals buses carrying fresh air Some pilots operating more miles without passengers than with DRT

The Rural Mobility Fund (RMF), a £20m initiative designed to test Demand Responsive Transport (DRT) solutions in rural and suburban areas, has reached its interim evaluation stage.

A total of 15 local authorities have embarked on DRT pilot schemes, aiming to improve public transport access in areas with low passenger demand or where traditional bus services may not be financially viable.

The fund’s interim report, which was produced by the University of the West of England, covers the first 18 months of the RMF initiative and aims to probe progress, challenges, and early findings of the pilot projects.

As of October 2022, 14 out of 22 DRT schemes were operational across 12 local authorities, serving

FIRSTGROUP PROFITS UP

2023/24 profits forecast to exceed all expectations FINANCIALS

FirstGroup has reported robust half-year results through strong demand at its open access rail operations, improved payments from National Rail Contracts, and betterthan-expected performance in its bus division.

The company attributes the growth in demand at the Hull Trains and Lumo open access rail businesses to increased leisure travel over the summer, which, when combined with 06 | 20 October 2023 PT299p06-07.indd 6

predominantly rural, mixed urban-rural, and suburban areas with population sizes ranging from about 12,000 to 176,000 people. These services operate with 12 to 16-seater minibuses, running six days a week for at least 12 hours daily. The report found experiences in designing and mobilising DRT schemes revealed challenges related to forecasting demand, virtual bus stops, and technology procurement.

Operational data collected from nine authorities showed that schemes maintained their schedules for 25-30 days per month. Empty running ratios were higher in areas with low population densities. The daily distance travelled per vehicle with passengers varied, with most averaging 33-86 miles per day, while journey distances varied according to population density.

Average journey distances have been longest for the schemes serving rural areas with the lowest

population densities. Lead times for journey bookings differed, with North Lincolnshire averaging two weeks and others ranging from one to four days. Unfulfilled bookings, where prospective passengers are turned away due to capacity or vehicle constraints, ranged from 13.0% to 18.9% across five schemes.

DRT patronage has been on an upward trend, but it still remains very low, with average monthly passengers ranging from 282 to 1,725. Usage varied, based on population density, the number of vehicles available, and fares.

Concessionary fare use ranged from 12% to 55%. The average revenue per passenger (across paying and non-paying passengers) differs considerably between pilots, with a range of £1.22 to £2.92 for “well-established schemes”.

The most recent figures suggest the HertsLynx scheme, which connects villages in the north and east of Hertfordshire with three

vehicles, reported the highest revenue between April and September 2022, taking £25,037 with an average of 47 passengers per day. At the other end of the scale the Swaffham Flexibus+ scheme in Norfolk, which has one minibus, took just £3,922 over the same period with an average of just 21 passengers per day. It also reported the worst average revenue per passenger at £1.22 in contrast to HertsLynx, which reported £2.92.

More concerning are the statistics related to average monthly miles without passengers. The report indicates that this number is comparable to the distance travelled with passengers, but for schemes in Cheshire East, Nottinghamshire, and Staffordshire, these figures surpass the miles traveled with passengers onboard vehicles.

Industry commentator and DRT critic Roger French was damning in his criticism of the report’s findings. “These results confirm what we have been saying on here for the last four years... it’s an absolute hopeless cause and a scandalous waste of public money,” he said.

enhanced variable fee payments for National Rail Contracts, is expected to contribute to First Rail’s adjusted operating profit for the 2023/24 financial year being £12-15m higher than anticipated.

Despite ongoing inflationary pressures, First Bus has traded slightly ahead of expectations during the first half of the year. This group claimed this achievement is due to strong passenger volumes and productivity improvements resulting from management actions to restructure the business.

Meanwhile, in September 2023, First Bus concluded a consultation period regarding its two Local

Government Pension Funds and will subsequently terminate its participation in these funds on October 31, 2023. Affected employees will be enrolled in the First Bus Retirement Savings Plan.

The termination is expected to result in a cost saving of approximately £2-3m annually for First Bus, with an estimated saving of around £1m in 2024. The settlement of pension obligations is expected to generate a net cash inflow of up to £15m for the group after costs, with the exact amount to be determined on the termination date. FirstGroup has also made strategic moves to resolve liabilities stemming from the

Greyhound Canada and Greyhound USA pension schemes.

The group has opportunistically purchased £12.2m of its 2024 bonds, leaving £172.1m of the 2024 bonds outstanding. As a result of these factors, First anticipates that its 2023/24 adjusted operating profit and adjusted attributable profit will exceed previous expectations by around £14-20m and £7-10m, respectively.

“Over the last few months, we have successfully built on the strong financial performance we reported at our full year results in June,” said FirstGroup chief executive Graham Sutherland. www.passengertransport.co.uk

18/10/2023 16:18

Transport needs clarity and certainty. Page 14

Mobico puts American business up for sale Former National Express Group cuts profit forecast amid rising costs and announces plans to sell North American operations in bid to cut debt FINANCIALS

Mobico, formerly known as National Express Group, last week reduced its operating profit forecast and suspended its final dividend due to increased costs impacting the group’s efforts to restore profitability.

Mobico has revised its yearly operating profit projection to £175m-£185m, down from the initial £200m-£215m estimate. As part of its financial stabilisation efforts, the company intends to sell its North American business, a move aimed at accelerating debt reduction and enhancing growth investment flexibility.

In the UK, Q3 (July 1, 2023 to September 30, 2023) revenue increased by 13% year-over-year, while in Germany it declined by 3% for the same period. Mobico highlighted that Alex Jensen, the

group’s new CEO for the UK and Germany, has been tasked with refining the division’s commercial focus. The group identified areas for improvement, such as enhanced commercial scrutiny, cost control, and more efficient allocation of capital and resources.

The UK coach business remains robust, with a 26% increase in revenues and a 24% rise in passenger numbers compared to the same quarter last year.

However, the National Express Transport Solutions private hire business faces challenges, leading to the planned closure of two out of five key NETS depots (see story below).

UK bus commercial passenger volumes stand at around 97% of 2019 levels, showing a 7% improvement compared to the third quarter of 2022, even with

NETS closes two of its five key depots Clarkes and The Kings Ferry bases are set to close National Express Transport Solutions (NETS) has announced it will close two of its five key depots, including the Clarkes of London facility in Sydenham, in south east London, and the Gillingham base acquired with Kent-based coach operator The Kings Ferry.

NETS parent Mobico confirmed the closures in its

www.passengertransport.co.uk

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third quarter trading update last week while clarifying that there are no immediate changes planned for the respective brands.

Work from these depots will be relocated to other locations.

In a statement, a National Express spokesperson said the group continually reviewed profitability of its portfolio.

“To ensure that we can operate

a network operating at 95% of 2022 service levels. Mobico notes that revenue growth expectations for the UK bus operation have moderated slightly due to a slight dip in passenger numbers compared to previous forecasts.

In North America, revenues saw a 4% increase compared to 2022, with the school bus, shuttle, and transit divisions retaining significant contracts. Meanwhile, Alsa in Spain delivered another strong quarter, with revenue up by 16% compared to Q3 2022.

“We recognise that the recovery of our profitability will take longer than we had previously expected,” said Mobico chief executive Ignacio Garat. “That is why we are announcing decisive actions to ensure we deliver sustainable profitability from our growing revenue base.”

efficiently, we have made the difficult decision to close our depots in Sydenham and Gillingham. We will be entering a consultation period with colleagues and we will do all we can to support them through this process. We will continue to operate corporate and private hire work from our strong and efficient network of depots across the UK.” Earlier this month NETS closed its Touromo coach holiday operation which it had only launched in early 2023.

COSMENS’ PLANS FOR EUROSTAR RIVAL PROGRESS But Alstom denies contract for high speed rail fleet INTERNATIONAL

Rolling stock manufacturer Alstom has confirmed that there is no current contract in place for the supply of high-speed trainsets to Evolyn, which recently announced plans to launch a Paris-London service, challenging Eurostar.

Evolyn, linked to the Spanish Cosmen family, who are major investors in Mobico, which was formerly known as National Express Group, unveiled its plans on October 11. In its announcement, Evolyn stated that they had reached an agreement to purchase a new train fleet from Alstom, although they did not specify a firm contract. The arrangement involved the acquisition of 12 Avelia high-speed trains from Alstom, with options for four more.

However, two days later, Alstom issued a statement to clarify the situation. The statement indicated that “Alstom and Evolyn have established a short-term agreement to proceed with initial train system engineering activities with the objective of accelerating activities, should the parties eventually enter into a contract for the purchase and delivery of a certain number of trains, provided that Evolyn is capable of securing project financing.”

Alstom also noted that “with regards to potential future delivery dates for new trains, at this time, the final train delivery dates will be confirmed when a firm and final contract will be agreed upon, to be signed at a later date.”

Evolyn plans to launch its first services in 2025. The company claims to have assembled investment worth £1bn from the Cosmens and “British and French industrial and financial partners”.

20 October 2023 | 07

18/10/2023 16:18

NEWS ROUND-UP

South West Wales buses yield to funding cuts Former flagship Ftr Metro route will see frequency down to every 20 minutes as budget cuts lead to major changes. Rhodri Clark reports FUNDING

Bus passengers in South West Wales will feel the force of the Welsh Government’s bus funding cuts from the end of this month.

Even the route in central Swansea which was previously operated by Ftr articulated buses will be cut back as First Cymru adjusts to the new financial realities.

The government has also decided to withdraw the funding on which Fflecsi Bwcabus depends, and the services will cease on October 31. They grew out of an initial project 14 years ago to provide demand-responsive transport in rural Ceredigion and Carmarthenshire, enabling longerdistance buses to save time and operating cost by omitting village detours. Bwcabus grew to include routes in north Pembrokeshire while EU funding was available.

Other major operators, including Cardiff Bus, Newport Transport and Arriva Cymru, have already reduced services as a result of the Welsh Government providing much less through its Bus Transition Fund this year than would be needed to sustain the network. Swansea-based First Cymru will amend many of its services from October 29.

Some of the changes affect Llanelli, the constituency of Welsh transport minister Lee Waters. One Llanelli-Swansea route will be withdrawn and Llanelli town services will be reduced. The inter-urban X11 between Carmarthen and Swansea via Llanelli will operate 08 | 20 October 2023 PT299p08-09.indd 8

hourly instead of every 30 minutes.

Cuts will also be made in Swansea, Wales’ second city. The local authority funded free bus travel in the city at holiday times after the pandemic to entice more residents to use buses. It has also invested in bus lanes, bus-only roads and a rebuilt bus station in the last 20 years. In 2009 the council and First Cymru launched the Ftr Metro service on Route 4, between Morriston Hospital and Singleton Hospital via the city centre. The coordinated

investment in infrastructure and articulated vehicles was seen as a model for the rest of the UK. From October 29, Route 4 buses will run every 20 minutes, instead of every 15 minutes. On Saturdays, the service will operate only between Morriston and the bus station, omitting the busy university campus and hospital at Singleton.

In the next county to the east, Neath Port Talbot, First will withdraw its service between Neath and Pontardawe, except for three trips each way on Sundays

“I’m extremely sad and disappointed at the loss of a great service that should be receiving continued support” Edward Thomas, Carmarthenshire

The ‘Swansea Metro’, pictured in 2009. Even that corridor will soon have a worse service

and public holidays. This brings to an end joint ticketing offered by First and South Wales Transport.

One of the key components of Pembrokeshire’s bus network, First’s 349 between Haverfordwest, Pembroke and Tenby, will drop from hourly to every 90 minutes.

The three local authorities affected by the withdrawal of Fflecsi Bwcabus said the Welsh Government secured new buses for these services as recently as July 2023, and “there was a level of optimism that things were progressing positively”. The buses had been transferred from the abandoned Fflecsi Newport service.

Ceredigion council cabinet member Keith Henson said: “While we welcome the ambition and aspiration the Welsh Government has set out in its Transport Plan Llwybr Newydd, in rural areas we are unfortunately seeing a loss or reduction of service because the investment simply isn’t there at the required levels to maintain services such as this.

“We will continue in our lobbying of the Welsh Government to ensure that rural areas get a fair slice of the cake, and that the challenges associated with accessing public transport in rural areas are recognised.”

Carmarthenshire cabinet member Edward Thomas said: “I’m extremely sad and disappointed at the loss of a great service that should be receiving continued support. The service offered a level of travel opportunity by bus that could not be met by other means. The rural nature of the areas served with a low population density means that there isn’t the critical mass of people wanting to travel at the same time to the same places which means traditional bus services just don’t work.” www.passengertransport.co.uk

18/10/2023 16:23

Call for clarity over electrification plans New electrification schemes not aligned with rolling stock ELECTRIFICATION

Rail industry suppliers are urging the UK Government to publish a traction power strategy, after £4bn was unexpectedly allocated to new electrification schemes.

They also want the government to commit to a rolling programme of electrification, which would reduce costs.

The new funding is part of prime minister Rishi Sunak’s promise that every penny of the £36bn saved from not proceeding with HS2 between Birmingham and Manchester would be invested in other transport schemes. Network North, the DfT’s document which explains where the money will be invested, says a £3bn plan will be taken forward to “connect the major cities of the North”.

This includes electrifying and improving linespeed from Hull to both Leeds and Sheffield, cutting the Hull-Leeds journey time from 58 to 48 minutes and Hull-Manchester from 107 to 84 minutes. “This will enable two fast trains an hour to Leeds, double trains between Hull and Sheffield from one to two per hour, and enable capacity to double,” says Network North.

The package also includes upgrading and electrification between Sheffield and Leeds, with the current hourly fast train replaced with a possible three or four fast trains per hour. The DfT also promises a new mainline station in Rotherham, “which could receive direct London www.passengertransport.co.uk

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services for the first time since the 1980s”.

The £3bn is also expected to fund Sheffield-Manchester electrification, through the Hope Valley, to cut journey time from 51 to 42 minutes, double capacity and support existing plans to increase fast trains from two to three per hour.

A further £1bn is budgeted for electrifying the North Wales main line, including Chester to Warrington. Network North also mentions electrification of both routes to Bristol Temple Meads, but only in the context of a £100m allocation to the region which is also expected to fund numerous other rail enhancements.

The Conservative government’s appetite for electrification has

oscillated since 2010. Committed schemes - including Bristol Temple Meads - were cancelled in 2017 in favour of diesel/electric bi-mode trains. The absence of sustained support has prevented England and Wales benefiting from a rolling programme where teams and equipment move from one scheme to the next and there is a steady pipeline of future work.

The Railway Industry Association, representing suppliers, welcomed the new commitments to electrification but said it was difficult to discern the overall plan from the Network North proposals. Robert Cook, the RIA’s policy director, said: “It is very unclear until we see the details about what will be electrified and when. Similarly, there are no details yet concerning

“The government needs to publish a holistic strategy for traction power over the long-term” Robert Cook, RIA

TfW Class 197 near Llanfairfechan

the essential signalling upgrades and rolling stock required to support these initiatives.

“The government needs to publish a holistic strategy for traction power over the long-term.

Such a strategy is crucial, especially because of the uncertainty rolling stock manufacturers are facing right now.

“We have been calling on government to commit to a rolling programme of electrification for a long time.” This was the best way to keep costs down and promote jobs in the supply chain, he said.

“Countries such as Germany have delivered much more costeffective electrification this way.”

The funding for North Wales electrification took the Welsh Government by surprise.

Transport for Wales is now introducing an £800m fleet of new trains predicated on the UK Government’s previous policy of not electrifying the non-devolved Welsh rail network. This includes 77 CAF diesel units for the North Wales main line and other routes.

TfW will need to acquire electric or bi-mode trains for North Wales and establish depot and maintenance facilities for them, otherwise the £1bn investment will only enable a handful of London-Holyhead trains per day to convert to electric traction.

On the other hand, GWR already has a large electric and bi-mode fleet to make use of new overhead wires which were due to be installed under the original Great Western electrification plan but are still not funded.

The absence of timescales for the new electrification schemes clouds the waters for suppliers and train operators, although Northern’s procurement of up to 450 new trains is at a sufficiently early stage for the new Yorkshire electrification schemes to be factored in.

20 October 2023 | 09

18/10/2023 16:23

NEWS ROUND-UP

20mph limits lead to timetable challenges Operators seek permission to make timetable amendments as they adjust to the new default speed limit in Wales. Rhodri Clark reports NETWORKS

The Traffic Commissioner for Wales has received few requests for urgent timetable amendments as a consequence of 20mph becoming the default speed limit in Welsh built-up areas, but one of the largest operators is preparing changes.

Before the default limit changed on September 17, local authorities estimated that two-thirds of services would need additional vehicles to maintain existing frequencies. Some operators, including Newport Transport and Cardiff Bus, factored in the lower speed limit when undertaking major timetable revisions last month, but most – including Arriva Wales - opted to see what impact the 20mph default limit had in practice before making changes.

In late September, Arriva Wales told North Wales Live that punctuality had been impacted as journey times had lengthened, particularly on longer journeys and services connecting towns.

Arriva was undertaking a largescale review of its network which would require additional resources and changes to frequencies and routes. The company had started discussing the implications with local authorities.

One bus manager told Passenger Transport last week that the full effect of the new default speed limit is yet to be felt because many drivers, including bus drivers, were not complying with the limit. This would change 10 | 20 October 2023 PT299p10-11.indd 10

when people started being fined for speeding on 20mph roads, he predicted.

The Welsh Government is giving drivers time to get used to the new speed limits before enforcement ramps up. Initially drivers will receive warning letters, unless they were exceeding 20mph by a wide margin.

Passenger Transport also heard from a Welsh bus driver who said the 20mph default limit had added

two to three minutes to the routes he drives, scheduled for about 60 to 90 minutes end to end. He had been a passenger on a service by another operator which arrived a couple of minutes late at its terminus although the driver had mostly ignored the 20mph limit.

South Wales independent Phil Anslow & Sons Coaches registered changes to timetables on four routes with effect from 20 September, to allow for the

“My drivers are saying ‘We need another bus in the system’ but that would cost me £70,000 a year” Phil Anslow, Phil Anslow & Sons Coaches

An Arriva bus passing a 20mph sign which was installed last month

greater mileage on 20mph roads, but waited to see the outcome before deciding on any changes for other routes (PT296).

Managing director Phil Anslow said last week that his services in Cwmbran were still able to keep time. Cwmbran is a post-war new town, featuring wide roads and roundabouts, and the local authority has exempted key roads in the town centre so that 30mph continues to apply.

However, Anslow said buses were being repeatedly delayed at some of the signalised junctions in his operating area, because fewer vehicles were crossing the junctions in each green light phase than when the limit was 30mph.

His inter-urban service from Brynmawr to Cwmbran via Abertillery was suffering delays as a result of the 20mph default limit. “My drivers are saying ‘We need another bus in the system’ but that would cost me £70,000 a year. It’s not viable for us to put another vehicle on it, but it’s not viable for us to keep running the bus late because our passenger numbers will go down and down.”

He was reluctant to reduce the service frequency to less than hourly. For now, the approach is to operate hourly and explain to passengers why the bus is late.

He said that with external funding towards the cost of a third vehicle, the service would operate punctually and would be able to serve the large town of Pontypool.

Currently it bypasses Pontypool, except for the first and last buses of the day, in order to keep within its scheduled 54 minutes from end to end.

However, with the Welsh Government cutting bus funding, Anslow was not optimistic that external funding would be provided for the route. “The bus side of our business doesn’t look that good after March,” he said. www.passengertransport.co.uk

18/10/2023 16:52

Koli Begum of Go-Ahead London won last year’s Top London Bus Driver award

OPERATOR AWARDS TOP CITY OPERATOR, SPONSORED BY INIT Brighton & Hove Buses Lothian Buses Nottingham City Transport Translink TOP INDEPENDENT OPERATOR Grant Palmer Sanders Coaches Uno TOP SHIRE OPERATOR, SPONSORED BY TICKETER Go South Coast McGill’s Bus Group Preston Bus Reading Buses Stagecoach in South Lancashire Stagecoach Midlands

Stagecoach leads UK Bus Awards shortlist

A total of 135 finalists have made the shortlist of this year’s prestigious UK Bus Awards, with the winners set to be announced on November 28 UK BUS AWARDS

The UK Bus Awards, the flagship national award scheme, has announced a 135-strong shortlist after another bumper year for entries.

People, projects and bus operators will be competing across 23 categories, with the presentation ceremony taking place on November 28, at Troxy, London.

The independent judging process, a cornerstone of the UK Bus Awards, has included mystery travelling for both driver and operator finalists. Additionally, it featured face-to-face interviews for some of those shortlisted.

Stagecoach, the UK’s biggest bus operator, once again received www.passengertransport.co.uk

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the highest number of shortlisted entries (46), a third of all finalists.

The group has been shortlisted in 17 award categories.

Claire Miles, Stagecoach’s newly-appointed CEO, said: “To have such a substantial amount of shortlisted nominations is a true testament to Stagecoach’s commitment to

continued innovation, supporting local communities and fostering a positive working culture.”

The Go-Ahead Group received the second largest number of shortlisted entries (15), followed

by Arriva (11).

As always, the winner of the prestigious Bus Operator of the Year award will be selected

SHORTLISTED ENTRIES FOR 2023 UK BUS AWARDS Stagecoach Go-Ahead Arriva RATP Dev Lothian McGill’s Transdev

46 15 11 6 5 5 5

from the winners of the Top City Operator, Top Independent Operator and Top Shire Operator categories (see panel). Last year’s winner was local authority-owned Blackpool Transport.

Alan Millar, chair of the UK Bus Awards, congratulated this year’s finalists: “[They] represent the best of the UK’s bus industry. Their dedication to excellence and innovation is truly commendable, and I congratulate each and every one of them on their outstanding achievements. The UK Bus Awards is proud to celebrate their contributions.”

He continued: “We can’t wait to recognise, reward and inspire the bus industry when we reveal the winners at Troxy, London on November 28th.”

The winners of the UK Bus Awards 2023 will be revealed at the prestigious Troxy, London, on Tuesday, November 28th. Tickets for the event are now available at: www.ukbusawards.org.uk 20 October 2023 | 11

18/10/2023 16:52

NEWS EXTRA LEE WATERS

Waters says Wales is sticking to its strategy The Welsh Government’s deputy minister for climate change used the National Transport Awards to hit back at critics and issue a rallying cry The National Transport Awards is a great opportunity Robert Jack to recognise Managing Editor those who are going above and beyond across all modes of transport. It’s also an opportunity to consider the challenges that the sector faces and present a vision for the future.

The latter is usually done by a UK transport minister, but none were available to attend the 20th National Transport Awards in London on October 5.

It perhaps wasn’t surprising given the flurry of announcements that week at the Conservative Party conference in Manchester.

On Monday, transport secretary Mark Harper had followed orders and led an assault on initiatives that constrain car use - the kind of initiatives that his government had previously supported. These are also the kind of initiatives that the National Transport Awards have always provided recognition for - a well-deserved pat on the back for transport professionals and politicians who have overcome opposition to create better places for people - and not just cars.

Two days later, Harper’s boss, the prime minister, used his conference speech to axe HS2 north of Birmingham and produce a ‘Network North’ blueprint that was riddled with errors.

Harper may have believed, quite understandably, that his tilt towards populism would not have 12 | 20 October 2023 PT299p12-13.indd 12

made him popular among the 600 people assembled in the ballroom at the Westminster Park Plaza hotel for the National Transport Awards. So it fell to a junior minister to appear instead - in the form of a pre-recorded video.

“It’s like a hostage situation!” declared the event’s host, broadcaster and keen cyclist Jeremy Vine, before introducing Richard Holden’s video message.

Conveying an admirable level of enthusiasm, Holden said: “I’m sorry, I can’t be there in person. Sadly I am at a roads conference in Eastern Europe.”

I later discovered that, although the XXVII World Road Congress was indeed taking place in Prague that week, Holden was actually appearing on the BBC’s Question Time show, live from Wolverhampton, on the night of the National Transport Awards.

Aside from that, there’s nothing much more to say about Holden’s pre-recorded contribution.

If the room was looking for a rallying cry, Lee Waters, deputy minister for climate change in the Welsh Government, provided it.

“I’m afraid the roads conference in Eastern Europe was fully booked,” he joked. “So I hope you’ll put up with me.”

“There’s no strategy, it’s all tactics and pretty grubby ones”

During his party conference speech, Harper had attacked the Welsh Government for “blanket 20mph speed limits, an ideological ban on road building and plans to charge people to drive on the M4”, and Waters did not miss the opportunity to return the favour.

“Now despite the slogan, there’s no longer a pretence that this government are thinking about long-term decisions,” said Waters.

“There’s no strategy, it’s all tactics and pretty grubby ones at that.

He argued that the decision to use £1bn of the money saved by cancelling HS2 north of Birmingham to electrify the North Wales Main Line illustrated the government’s short-term thinking.

“They’ve clearly learnt nothing from HS2, or from the broken promise to electrify the main line to Swansea,” said Waters. “Then, as now, there was no development work behind the announcement, no plan, no costings. I heard [chancellor] Jeremy Hunt asking why it cost 10 times more to build a railway in this country than just across the Channel in France.

Well, that’s why.”

He continued: “I was particularly disappointed to see Mark Harper, who in my dealings has been a decent and reasonable man, drawn into spreading misinformation about what we’re doing in Wales and legitimising conspiracy theories about ‘15 minute cities’ involving local councils deciding how often you go to the shops.

“Now this is playing with fire and if one of the most reasonable

Conservatives has been drawn into that type of dangerous culture war, I do worry about how we’re going to respond to the profound challenges that are ahead of us.”

For Waters, those challenges are centred on the response to the climate emergency.

He challenged the audience: “Just as our parents’ generation asked their parents, ‘what did you do during the war, mummy/ daddy?’ We need to be ready with an answer when our own grandchildren ask us, ‘What did you do when you were given the evidence of catastrophic climate change; when you were shown flood maps, showing sea water rising by two metres; when you saw that 40% of species were in long-term decline; when you were told that all the coral in our waters were on the absolute brink of devastation; when every year broke the record for the warmest temperatures? What did you do?

What did YOU do?

“There is always, always, a reason for maintaining the status quo.

Always a short-term argument for maintaining a business model, for doing just the minimum that’s required by the regulations, for going with a grain.”

Waters acknowledged that change is difficult, and he spoke of his own experiences. Nearly half a million people have signed a petition calling for the Welsh Government to abandon its 20mph speed limit in built-up areas, and Waters has faced an (unsuccessful) no confidence vote in the Welsh Parliament.

Furthermore, he’s had security cameras installed in his home, has a police patrol calling by, and has been asked to stay away from events in his constituency.

He took aim at those who argue that action to mitigate climate change will harm our economy.

“Your operating environment is www.passengertransport.co.uk

18/10/2023 15:16

“We will only be able to bring people with us if we make it easy for them to get around” KEY POLICIES

Lee Waters: ‘We have to make the right thing to do, the easiest thing to do’

FEWER NEW ROADS “Building a road cannot be the default answer whenever we face congestion or have an accident black spot. As well as consuming tons of carbon from all the steel and concrete ... roads quickly fill up with traffic again and deepen the cycle of car dependency.”

A NEW ORTHODOXY “There is hardly a nerdy manual that is not infused with car dominance. There’s nothing unconscious about that bias.

We need to rewire our systems to make sure they’re focused on modal shift, to make sure our high-level goals are aligned with delivery mechanisms.”

going to be turned on its head,” he said. “By the time my children are my age, the science tells us that most of the towns on our coast will be flooded. Our rail infrastructure, our roads, underwater ... Now, what’s that going to do to our economy? How is that going to impact on your business model?”

In Wales, the response has been to place transport alongside planning, housing, regeneration and environment in one climate change department, to try to achieve the elusive policy join-up.

“To be in with a chance of hitting the 2050 target, we need to cut emissions in the next 10 years more than we’ve managed over the course of the whole of the last 30 years,” Walters said. “More than three decades worth of cuts in under one decade.

“That’s hard to do and transport must play its part. Now, since www.passengertransport.co.uk

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1990, the base line used by the UN, we managed to cut carbon emissions from waste by 64% from industry by 36%, the same from the energy sector ... But transport has decreased the least, just 6% since 1990, and that’s even with the advances in technology that we’ve had in the last 30 years.

“So if we continue to move at that pace we’ll be sunk, literally.”

Technology alone will not be our saviour, Waters warned.

He pointed out the UK Climate Change Committee, the independent advisers to all the governments in the UK, have said that the move to electric cars is necessary, but not sufficient.

“We also need to shift behaviour,” he continued. “And that’s why the Welsh government has put modal shift at the heart of our transport strategy.”

The Welsh Government has set

targets. It wants 30% of people to work remotely on an ongoing basis. And it’s aiming to switch the number of trips by sustainable modes from the current 32% to 45% by 2040. To achieve this, key policies include fewer new roads, bus franchising and a new £1bn metro system (see panel).

Waters concluded: “We are close to the point of no return with climate change, but we’re not there yet. We still have choices.

There is still hope, but pulling back from this point will be a challenge for us all ... We will only be able to bring people with us if we make it easy for them to get around. If we expect people to make heroic sacrifices, we will fail.

We have to make the right thing to do, the easiest thing to do.

And thankfully that’s doable.

There is a way - but the question for us all is, is there a will?”

20MPH DEFAULT SPEED LIMIT “It’s the biggest change in the rules of the road since seat-belt wearing became compulsory in 1983, and just as with that change there is pushback - but there’s no going back ... Average speeds are already down and as a result we can expect to see fewer accidents, fewer deaths, fewer tragedies.”

BUS FRANCHISING “Our planned system of franchising will finally reverse the fragmentation of bus privatisation, it will correct the market failure which has seen bus use steadily fall to the point that half of us have never set foot on a bus. Simply put, our plan is for one network, one timetable, and one ticket, bringing people before profits.”

A £1BN METRO SYSTEM “We’re building a £1bn metro system for the Cardiff city region, a project that the former chair of Crossrail, Terry Morgan, said was the most ambitious project on the UK railways today.”

20 October 2023 | 13

18/10/2023 15:16

COMMENT NETWORK NORTH

JASON PRINCE

Transport needs clarity and certainty

Some of the real positives from the government’s Network North announcements have got lost in the malaise. Details are required

I am writing this on what feels like the first proper day of Autumn and just over 100 days from taking up the role as director of the Urban Transport Group. Why is 100 days important? Because that is the timeline I set myself to refresh this brilliant organisation to meet the challenges (and opportunities) that public transport faces over the next few months and years.

Now, it would be wrong to use this column to say how fantastic we are as an organisation.

We are only as good as the work we deliver and the strength and depth of our relationships in the sector. But I do believe that the team - in this short space of time I have been with UTG - have worked incredibly hard to deliver some great policy interventions, with a highlight being our recently published A Smoother Ride Reviewing the Bus Services Act 2017 to empower local areas in collaboration with the Local Government Association.

While the paper may not have got the column inches (being about the nitty-gritty of bus legislation), it did get the recognition it deserved across the public transport sector - and rightly so! For me, it was vital that the paper challenged the orthodoxy of a one size fits all approach to public transport.

Given that we have plurality of devolution across our nation, can we be confident that what works in one place will also work in another? Put simply - no.

What is important is that there is a 14 | 20 October 2023 PT299p14-15.indd 14

framework provided by national government for devolution to operate and thrive, and I know that many in the Department for Transport worked extremely hard to provide a sound piece of legislation in the Bus Services Act 2017 that allowed for devolution to be, in my own words, ‘scaled-up’. This is why, now that the devolution genie has been fully released from the lamp, the legislation needs to be updated to reflect the progress of devolution across the country, starting with franchising to be open to all areas (without the need for secretary of state approval) and the ban on local authorities setting up municipal bus companies being lifted.

The point however, about the framework provided by national government, is also relevant to the newly launched Network North.

When I started the job just over three months ago, I expected from the Conservative Party, just as night follows day, a refreshed narrative on net zero and a widening of the policies to support motorists in the run up to a general election. And in the same vein, I also expect we will hear more from the Labour Party about greater public control over key tenants in our economy and the growth potential of the green industries.

However, what I hadn’t expected was to find myself (as someone who lives in Manchester) living in a newly defined geographical north that spans the breadth of the country from Stranraer in Scotland to Plymouth in the South and the Port of Felixstowe in the East. This was quite a revelation - as was the prospect of being able to get a Metrolink tram to Manchester Airport…! However, given that a third of all the money announced in Network North will go to road projects, this surely means that at the very least, if I choose to drive to any of these places, the roads will be top notch and smooth as silk.

Light-heartedness aside, it is fair to say that across the transport sector and beyond, there is some bemusement at how we have got here and more worrying, where we are going.

What makes this more bewildering, and I am sure this point is not lost on government, is that some of the real positives from Network North have got lost in the malaise.

One of the announcements we should applaud is the uplift to devolved transport settlements for urban regions outside of London. This is welcome and confirms the City Region Sustainable Transport Settlement (CRSTS) as a mechanism for all partners to build upon to help support transport delivery in devolved areas. By the way, it is worth noting that the government also needs to reach agreement with our friends in the capital on funding post-March 2024!

However, Network North is scant on detail about revenue funding and long-term support for the most used form of public transport - the bus. Now it would be wrong not to acknowledge the extension to the £2 fare cap up to the end of 2024 - an end date that is prime for a manifesto pledge to extend beyond the election should that event happen around a year from now. But long-term support for the broader bus sector is limited, which is frustrating given how many people depend on buses each day.

A new settlement for buses needs to be a priority for any future government. To avoid this would be to condemn the local economies

“Network North is scant on detail about revenue funding and long-term support for the most used form of public transport - the bus” www.passengertransport.co.uk

18/10/2023 15:19

of towns and cities across the country to terminal decline.

More broadly however, and probably the biggest weakness in Network North, is the lack of an overall strategy for connectivity to support our regions, something that has been picked up in the recent five-year assessment by the National Infrastructure Commission. Devolved areas are recognised as drivers for growth to support our national economy, and they can only develop, improve and become more productive if the national transport infrastructure is fit for purpose, and gets built.

We need to acknowledge that great strides have been made in recent years to harness the potential of devolution - with city regions now starting to deliver on their promise of improved connectivity, working in partnership with government and officials to unlock the true potential in our economic heartlands.

You only need to look at what is being delivered in Greater Manchester through the Bee Network as an example of what can be achieved.

But as we hurtle towards the next general election, it is important that any future government builds on work that is already underway locally and provides a national transport strategy and framework that has clarity and certainty at its heart.

Clarity provides the ability to plan, certainty provides the confidence to invest.

As remarked earlier in this piece, national government is there to provide the framework for devolution to thrive.

So, as I plan with the team how we will invest our time over the next 100 days, I and many others in the transport sector will be looking for that clarity and certainty - to provide them is not an ask of government, it is a must and is a minimum requirement of being in government.

Greater Manchester’s Bee Network is an example of what can be achieved

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Jason Prince became director of the Urban Transport Group, the UK’s network of city region transport authorities, in July 2023. He was previously head of public affairs for the Greater Manchester Combined Authority, a position he held for over three years, and prior to that, he worked for Transport for Greater Manchester

www.passengertransport.co.uk

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18/10/2023 15:19

COMMENT

CLAIRE HAIGH

Either we all win, or we all lose

How do we prevent short-term thinking and political expediency from driving critical decisions on tackling climate change?

Like so many, I could scarcely believe what I was hearing when prime minister Rishi Sunak made his Net Zero speech at Downing Street on September 20. At a stroke he smashed the UK’s highly cherished cross-party consensus on climate change and threw down the gauntlet to Labour, signalling a brutal run up to the next election in which Net Zero will be a highly weaponised wedge issue.

Despite the PM’s insistence that he was “putting the long term needs of the country ahead of the short-term political needs of the moment”, the decision to delay key Net Zero targets has been widely criticised for putting the UK’s future economic prosperity and energy security at risk and driving up costs.

Investors have warned that the shock changes, alongside the decision to axe the northern arm of HS2, will damage inward investment.

The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has challenged the government to provide evidence to support its claim that the UK remains on track. Whilst acknowledging some recent progress, such as the new Zero Emission Vehicles mandate, the CCC concludes, having now “run the numbers”, that the weakening of key decarbonisation policies will make the UK’s climate targets harder to achieve and undermine its position as a global climate leader.

The jewel in the crown of the UK’s onetime world leadership on the climate agenda was its cross-party consensus, which enabled the Climate Change Act and Net Zero 16 | 20 October 2023 PT299p16-17.indd 16

legislation to be passed. However, the latest policy developments and rhetoric reveal the consensus to be somewhat fragile and subject to the vagaries of politics. The two main parties now present starkly contrasting approaches to Net Zero.

Sunak promises a “more proportionate” approach, removing unreasonably high costs from “hard-working British people”. Energy security and Net Zero secretary Claire Coutinho accuses Labour of treating Net Zero as a “religion”. Keir Starmer and his team have hit back, promising greater policy stability and confirming that they would reinstate the 2030 ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and vans and ramp up Net Zero investment.

The big risk is that electioneering will undermine public support for Net Zero, put vital UK supply chains at risk and erode consumer confidence.

Transport is on the front line of attack.

Election strategists have clearly decided that the PM must present himself as defender of the motorist. The Plan for Drivers turns established sustainable transport orthodoxy on its head, going against efforts to ease congestion by

“The Plan for Drivers turns established sustainable transport orthodoxy on its head”

encouraging more walking, cycling and public transport. Delaying the 2030 ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and vans is also designed to fit with a pro-motorist narrative.

The PM’s speech was the culmination of a set of shifts within the Conservative Party that began most conspicuously with their unexpected narrow win in a by-election defined by a fight over expanding London’s ULEZ, but which go further back to the formation of the Net Zero Scrutiny Group. What was once a fringe issue has moved into the mainstream.

This evolution of thinking within the Party coincides with a notable deterioration in the level of ambition on Net Zero in the UK. In the run up to COP26 in 2021, the UK was setting out its stall as a climate leader.

Government policy included the aspiration for walking, cycling and public transport to be the “natural first choice”. Speaking at a Greener Transport Solutions webinar in 2021, then chair of the Transport Select Committee, Huw Merriman MP (now rail minister), spoke of the importance of modal switch and of the need for road pricing to fill the fiscal black hole as fuel duty receipts disappear. “If we don’t do it now, we never will.”

Two years later, the government’s predominant narrative is on “ending the war on the motorist”. When comparing the Net Zero Strategy (2021) with the Carbon Budget Delivery Plan (2023) the most significant change is an increase in emissions from surface transport - a factor likely to be significantly worsened by the “long-term plan to back drivers” which includes a clampdown on 20mph limits, bus lanes, low-traffic neighbourhoods and the ability of councils to fine drivers who commit offences.

The CCC have been highly critical of the failure to deliver much tangible progress. “The government continues to place their reliance on technological solutions that have not been deployed at scale, in preference to more straightforward encouragement of people to reduce high-carbon activities.” Climate Outreach warns that failure to inform and engage the public on the climate crisis could result in a “vocal and unrepresentative minority of the population” undermining Net Zero goals.

How do we prevent short-term thinking and political expediency from driving critical decisions on tackling climate change?

This question is increasingly urgent. 2023 www.passengertransport.co.uk

18/10/2023 15:22

“We need to address the root causes of climate change: our addiction to fossil fuels” looks set to be the world’s hottest year on record. Unprecedented temperature anomalies in September have shocked the scientific community and been described as “absolutely gobsmackingly bananas”. The UN’s first comprehensive stocktake of global efforts to limit warming concluded that the world is headed for a temperature rise of up to 2.6°C. Far steeper global greenhouse gas emissions reductions are required, but crucially we have the tools we need to halve emissions this decade and get on track for 1.5°C. We cannot rely on clean technologies alone. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) calls for the “mainstreaming of climate action across society”. Reducing energy demand across all sectors could deliver a 40-70% reduction in global GHG emissions by 2050.

Energy demand reduction can be quickly politicised. The ‘gilet jaunes’ in France successfully mobilised against attempts to increase taxes on fuel. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany party successfully mobilised against a push to require installation of heat pumps. The PM cited cost of living concerns as justification for delaying Net Zero targets, but it is the cost of oil and gas that has hit consumers hard. Scrapping minimum energy efficiency standards in privately rented properties will result in higher energy bills.

Greener Vision has published a new report which investigates how our approach to tackling the climate crisis needs to change.

Greener Vision: The Art of Seeing builds on the findings of two thought leadership programmes which explored what would be a credible and deliverable framework for decarbonising transport. The report also draws on The Tabula Project, a creative project which started with the assumption that we won’t solve our most intractable problems with the same thinking that created them in the first place.

The Tabula Project seeks to provide a new perspective on the mind, firstly by examining current thought patterns, then clearing the mind and building a new framework. In applying this process to the climate crisis, we must first examine the assumptions underpinning decision making. An honest appraisal leads us to conclude that our current paradigm is not fit for purpose.

We need to embrace more holistic thinking and an approach that seeks to create unity rather than division. www.passengertransport.co.uk

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The Prime Minister’s Net Zero press conference in Downing Street last month

We need a radical realignment of how we perceive ourselves in relation to others and the environment on which we depend. We need to design fairer and more equitable economic systems that allow both humans and the environment to thrive. Green growth is the only kind of growth conceivable. Labour have been clear that climate action is at the heart of their economic vision for the UK. We need to address the root causes of climate change: our addiction to fossil fuels.

Pricing properly for carbon is a fundamental building block. Excessive road building increases road transport emissions by inducing traffic. None of the main parties have given any indication that they will end the freeze on fuel duty. The decision to divert some of the cancelled HS2 budget to road building directly conflicts with the Net Zero targets.

We need more honesty and transparency in decision-making. IPCC scientists warn of “a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all”.

Slowing the route to Net Zero will worsen the global climate crisis. Even if the 2050 goal is still met, postponing action - as the UK has done - will cause more heat and damage. The CCC has urged the government to adopt greater transparency.

We need to engage our emotional brains in tackling climate change. Rational scientific data loses out against a compelling emotional story that speaks to people’s values. Any attempts to peddle blatant falsehoods and seek to create division must be called out. The Plan for Drivers gives credence to conspiracy theories about 15-minute cities by pledging to “prevent schemes which aggressively restrict where people can drive”.

We need to think and act in a global long-term context. Labour has promised that if they form the next government the UK will be leading again, holding other countries to account with the power of its example. Climate change is an epoch defining, global intergenerational problem requiring unprecedented levels of cooperation. We must internalise the new zero-sum: either we all win, or we all lose.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Claire Haigh is Founder & CEO of Greener Vision, a not for profit organisation dedicated to encouraged the switch to a greener future.

Greener Vision: The Art of Seeing is published on 19th October 2023 www.greener-vision.com

20 October 2023 | 17

18/10/2023 15:23

COMMENT

ALEX WARNER

Forget Hs2 and focus on local investments The transport community needs to recognise the country has big problems to solve and concentrate on where we can really help I know it might seem odd for me, of all people to say this, but I’ll be blunt, I think there’s far more pressing priorities - so the decision not to proceed with the second phase of HS2 was the right one. This, from a government which must rank as the most clueless ever when it comes to transport decisions and policies.

When I pontificate about my fears for a future world in which I will be an old duffer and my kids will be developing further into adulthood, I’ll be honest, fears around transport rank very low on the agenda. I feel more unnerved by the prospect of nuclear Armageddon unleashed by Putin, followed by the continued and never-ending conflict in the Middle East. Closer to home, I’ve a whole litany of fears. The first is knife and gun crime and the breakdown in social cohesion and lawlessness per se. Perhaps I’ve been overly consumed by some of the TikToks I stumble across, but I’ve been alarmed at the increase in brawls that now seem fairly routine, and also of casual shoplifting - an ill that if it becomes fashionable will soon lead to the total end of society as we know it. So too, casual drug taking - leafy Surrey where I live is rife with it.

I’m worried - particularly as I enter my twilight years when ailments become more common - by the dreadful state of the NHS. Has anyone tried to book an appointment at their local GP lately? Where I live, we literally can only phone up between 08:00 and 08:01 Mondays to Fridays and if you miss that minute you have to wait till tomorrow, even if you are 18 | 20 October 2023 PT299p18-19.indd 18

keeling over. From the cost of living, including the number of cats that are being abandoned because a sachet of pet food is now over a fiver, through to education where state schools are lawless and university students are ripped off by fees for an experience that involves an overdependency on online learning - I could list 50 things that worry me more than transport.

We shouldn’t over-exaggerate the importance of transport. When Andy Burnham was castigating the government for the decision on HS2, it felt opportunist. After all, is he heaping similar opprobrium on a routine basis about the state of healthcare in the North or out of control crime? And, if you speak to most people in Greater Manchester, I suspect that their worries will be more pressing than the loss of a faster rail link to supplement the already pretty fast and frequent service between London, Birmingham and Manchester.

Over the past 12 months, in particular, I’ve travelled almost daily across all parts of the UK. Last week alone, in the space of four days, I spent prolonged periods wandering the streets of Sheffield, Harrogate, Halifax, Workington, Blackpool, Northwich and Northampton - a very typical week. What I see more and more, and what I hear when talking to folk, is that

“I could list 50 things that worry me more than transport”

their concerns are more localised, particularly so, post-Covid, as the pandemic, combined with the rise of online retailing entertainment, remote working, the gig economy and literally ‘I can’t be bothered to travel far at weekends, pleasures are closer to home’ mentality, has limited mobility aspirations.

I am very much in the minority of someone who desires and chooses to spend a working week travelling across towns and cities to do business. Most folk couldn’t give two hoots about a new long-distance railway that they might use once every few years. Many know they won’t be able to afford to do so in any case - the existing train fares on InterCity routes are almost out of the price range of your average person. HS2 services will, in all probability, come at a bigger premium fare and we’ll have a two-tier railway.

The people I see and talk to on my travels care more about their local bus service being more frequent and on-time, or the cost of bread in Co-Op, or the scourge of casual drug taking in their neighbourhood, or the waiting time for routine medical treatment.

My de-prioritisation of transport is also because (positively so), I don’t actually think the current experience is that bad. I’m reasonably happy with the service I receive currently when travelling, particularly on the InterCity services. I can’t recall the last time I genuinely came home and cursed the service and I’m still in awe of being able to travel in such comfort on Avanti from London to Manchester in only two hours, six minutes. It’s light years away from experiences in dank, cold, dirty Mark 1 or 2 carriages in the 1980s and 1990s. Don’t let the old-timers who used to work for British Rail kid you that it was great back in the day!

Money would be better spent on regenerating town centres because, in my view, that is more crucial to the future prosperity and social cohesion of the UK. Again, on my extensive overnighters, I’ve been staggered by the death of the night-time economy. Apart from a few of the really big cities, almost every major population is now bereft of any life after dark.

These are places that literally used to be party centres at weekends and now they are almost entirely desolate. Ghost towns isn’t hyperbole.

Walk around these places and the sight of large, empty, cavernous pubs, nightclubs and restaurants hardly entices folk to want to come out - why leave the warmth and security of www.passengertransport.co.uk

18/10/2023 15:30

“The people I see and talk to on my travels care more about their local bus service” home for a soulless, desolate and badly lit town centre (it’s as though councils are deliberately shrouding streets in darkness to turn them away), where the only people hanging around are beggars, which is the norm across many parts of the country. By day, shops are boarded up and where there was once a Debenhams, there are now money-laundering businesses masquerading as sweets and vape stores.

I’d prefer investment in the night-time economy, giving folk a purpose to travel, supported by funding of evening and weekend local bus services to make it easy to come into town and get home again. The £2 fares incentive is brilliant, but it’s poorly publicised and no good if services have all been culled after the shops have shut. So too, it needs to be supported by bus companies actually working with destinations to stimulate demand. In the case of many routes, there are hidden gems to visit, yet many bus operators don’t realise this.

At Great Scenic Journeys, we’re working to help them unlock the potential of these routes.

We do, of course, know that better public transport can regenerate communities and regions. London’s Docklands has been transformed completely, firstly by the Docklands Light Railway, then the Jubilee line, Crossrail and, of course, London Overground, which also led to the gentrification of many parts of inner London. In Greater Manchester, the arrival of Metrolink breathed new life into swathes of the city, whilst Midland Metro had an indelible impact on the Black Country. So too, the Thanet towns have been positively impacted by HS1. But for all of these, there remain communities so geographically remote (in extreme corners of Cumbria, Wales, or Scotland, for instance), where investment in local bus services would be far more effective.

The Potteries is a classic example; served by a very good high-speed service to Stoke, the area is awkwardly remote from the communities that are central to a regional economy that is literally on its knees and eternally suffering the highest levels of deprivation, making them the ultimate ghost towns for long periods of the day and night - Hanley, Burslem, Longport, Newcastle Under Lyme.

Then, of course, there are locations where no amount of spending on public transport is able to lift them from the abyss. Here, the problems are far more complex and transcend transport as a medicine. Croydon www.passengertransport.co.uk

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is a classic example, and I was reminded of this a fortnight ago by the deplorable murder of a 15-year-old schoolgirl on a bus in broad daylight. Croydon is a town I know well as a lifelong Crystal Palace fan and also having in my career run all the stations in the borough.

Growing up over the years not far away in Orpington, I was an avid reader of The Croydon Advertiser and even way back in the 1980s and 1990s, it took some steel to read beyond the Sports section into the news pages, where some of the crimes reported were absolutely horrific and like something out of a warzone.

The riots of 2011 didn’t shock me at all and this is a town that is literally on a tinder-box, it could happen again and much worse.

Law and order in Croydon has completely collapsed, deprivation is rife and where London Overground may have made Norwood, Crystal Palace and Streatham affluent, it’s had a knock-on effect on Selhurst, Thornton Heath, Addington and West Croydon, which seem perpetually excluded from rejuvenation.

Meanwhile, Croydon Council is in ‘special measures’ and bankrupt. The latest blow to the town centre is Sainsbury’s decision to up sticks, with indications that rampant shoplifting is a contributory factor. Yet Croydon is a town with fast, direct, and frequent train services to a range of central London destinations and across London to other parts of the Home Counties, as well as the coast, alongside an impressive tram network that ensures that transport services east to west are on a par with the excellent vertical offering. There are also more buses than shops, it seems in Croydon and many decent interchange facilities.

Another location where public transport has been improved but with little, if any, discernible impact is Blackpool. It enjoys a frequent, well-respected network of trams and buses and direct trains to London have returned as well as good connections to Preston for additional services to London and also to the Midlands, North West and Scotland. However, one walk round Blackpool and you’ll see great tourist attractions against a backdrop of rundown accommodation, homeless people, sparsely populated nightclubs and pubs, as well as the whiff of spliffs, never far away. A few weeks ago, I was approached by one lady, thinking I was a drug dealer! Across the UK, there are plenty of locations which appear to be in gradual decay,

across a number of fronts, despite having a decent transport network.

There are some places poorly served, particularly by rail, where one feels that investment would make a difference. As a regular visitor to Scarborough, for instance, the systemic decline of this once great coastal town is apparent and in tandem with the pathetic demise of the train service. Without the salvaging efforts of the very good bus service, the town would be in the abyss. There are other locations, such as Accrington, Burnley, Middlesbrough, and Halifax, that feel as though improved rail services would be impactful.

Politicians love creating headlines that are so binary. If a high-speed rail route isn’t extended as planned to Manchester, then that must, somehow, mean we’re all screwed. For me, it’s about being selective in identifying and analysing in detail those locations where investment in transport is going to have the biggest impact on socio-economic prosperity.

There will be some places where the effect will be marginal and there are bigger issues to tackle, but there are also forgotten towns where better public transport could be the catalyst for a much-needed revival.

In announcing that the government would re-allocate funding ringfenced for HS2 to alternative transport schemes, it seemed that this kind of selective and carefully evaluated prioritisation had ensued, but as the days since have come and gone, there is some doubt as to the credibility of any plans. Any credit I might give Rishi Sunak and Co for having the guts to cull the next stage of HS2 is being wiped out by a sense that the public has been fobbed off by talk of alternatives. It didn’t take long for this government to revert to type when it comes to public transport policy (or lack of), but then again, it’s got a whole long list of wide-ranging and bigger problems to deal with.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Alex Warner has over 30 years’ experience in the transport sector, having held senior roles on a multi-modal basis across the sector. He is co-founder of recruitment business Lost Group and transport consultancy AJW Experience Group (which includes Great Scenic Journeys).

He is also chair of West Midlands Grand Rail Collaboration and chair of Surrey FA.

20 October 2023 | 19

18/10/2023 15:31

COMMENT

NICK RICHARDSON

HS2 fallout: a look at the challenges

The demise of the second phase of HS2 has implications for rail networks and other future major infrastructure projects The decision to ditch much of the planned High Speed Two project has been a major blow to many, largely those in the North for whom the new line was to provide the best surface connections possible. The truncated scheme has not much to offer but it is helpful to consider its origins and the fallout particularly when ‘the facts have changed’.

Big intentions In many other countries, high speed rail connections provide a credible alternative to domestic air services but with HS2, the message was unclear from the start. Initially we were told that speed was the aim with journey times between major centres reduced significantly, then we were told that HS2 was about capacity.

The concept included services to major cities and airports, hence the diversion towards Heathrow Airport and the major interchange at Birmingham International with the airport there vying for business against London’s airports. One problem throughout has been the London terminus and what would happen to the HS2 passengers once they arrived at Euston where the Underground network is very busy already. Taking a look back much further to the 1830s, a new railway was envisaged to link London Euston to Birmingham Curzon Street which required large scale demolition in the capital and a series of large infrastructure works before the route was opened. Today’s hope for a railway linking the same two places has fallen flat as a consequence of its 20 | 20 October 2023 PT299p20-21.indd 20

compromised alignment and design, the scale of infrastructure needed to achieve it and the inevitably high costs.

A salient comparison is the successful creation of the Selby diversion of the East Coast Main Line, completed in 1983. Here a 14 mile route designed for high speed trains cost £60m, equivalent to £200m today and was paid for by the coal industry rather than the railway. Much of this route required extensive structures with viaducts over swamps and floodplains. More recently, High Speed One – the Channel Tunnel link – was created with massive infrastructure.

However, its temporary terminus at London Waterloo was not designed to be converted to form part of the main station, so significant extra cost was incurred after HS1 moved to St Pancras International. With the HS2 concept, a link with HS1 was ruled out early on despite the potential for connections from Europe to numerous parts of Britain.

However, the Regional Eurostar concept failed early on despite works being undertaken to accommodate it with the result that both HS1 and HS2 would be London-orientated but not connected to each other or to many potential markets.

Residual problems HS2 commenced construction after widespread property acquisition and much of the infrastructure is in place or committed.

With it, tracts of land have been blighted and

spaces cleared on a huge scale including sites of significant environmental value. Half built, HS2 needs to clarify its role given that it now has limited scope and has a major problem deciding what it is for. A key question is the viability of the London terminus at Euston which is now not in scope unless private sector funding emerges which is unlikely given that services would go to places already served.

Critically, the journey time saving may not be sufficient to attract users, especially to and from London where the location of the terminus is important; getting to Old Oak Common is likely to use up any journey time savings of the journey to Birmingham. At Curzon Street, an extension to West Midlands Metro will meet HS2 passengers but fewer in number than envisaged at what will be a vast new station.

A decision having been made regarding the scope of HS2 following the previous truncation, there are implications for the wider rail network, notably Northern Powerhouse Rail. A great deal has been offered but undermined by the lack of an HS2 element of the scheme and ongoing lack of clarity about political and funding commitments.

Incredibly, advice from the Department for Transport to ministers is that the surviving element of HS2 offers value for money because much of the cost is regarded as already spent so doesn’t count, an inventive interpretation of HM Treasury requirements that hasn’t been applied to anything else.

One option could be to somehow connect what is left of HS2 with HS1 to enable direct trains from the Midlands to run to the Continent to provide purpose and new sources of demand. A further strand is capacity, not forgetting that the West Coast Main Line capacity was improved a few years ago at a cost of £10bn. HS2 should be compatible with conventional trains to avoid being a standalone network but mixing HS2 trains north of the Midlands with an already busy network is a massive failure. If HS2 fares compare unfavourably, then existing services will remain in high demand and HS2 will have a very constrained market i.e. appalling value for money. It would have helped if construction had started in the North as was suggested at the time because something worthwhile could have been salvaged even if it never made it to London. www.passengertransport.co.uk

18/10/2023 15:33

IN ASSOCIATION WITH: www.ciltuk.org.uk Tel: 01536 740100 @ciltuk

Half built, HS2 needs to clarify its role given that it now has limited scope

Spreading the money With the cancellation of much of HS2, the alternative spend needs to be thought through, noting that the list of schemes was put together prior to the announcement about curtailing HS2, so clearly a decision had been made some time prior to its unveiling. The HS2 budget was vast but dependent on government borrowing; much of it is not available without incurring substantial borrowing costs. In contrast, securing even small scale funding for transport schemes has been difficult because it is from borrowed sources. Also, the reliance on Benefit Cost Ratios and securing value for money seems to be arbitrary. HS2 has never offered a good case with unattractive BCRs from the outset, a notable contrast with contemporary advice in the 2010 Eddington Report that ‘grand projects’ were best avoided. Some of the schemes presented as candidates for spend are also likely to offer poor value for money and in some cases have been rejected previously on cost grounds.

The hope is that such schemes can be implemented well before HS2 would have been but this seems improbable given the rigorous sequence of processes required by government. www.passengertransport.co.uk

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“The HS2 fiasco may prompt a rethink about scheme promotion” For example, a rapid transit scheme for Leeds was presented initially as light rail (refused funding) then trolleybus (suggested by DfT but then refused funding) and now likely to be resurrected as a light rail scheme or possibly not. Any options require time as well as funding to create a business case, consult on proposals and progress design and parliamentary processes, not to mention land acquisition and other practicalities. Either the process needs to change or long lead times remain the norm. The HS2 fiasco may prompt a rethink about scheme promotion and assessment. At the moment, rigorous assessment as required by DfT can bog down schemes but often there is a political twist that defies the prescribed approach.

The ‘Network North’ proposals, seemingly assembled quickly, span a broad region. The proposals appear to be a random collection, mostly far from new but subject to funding, funded from other sources, in place already,

at the very early stages or previously refused on cost grounds. This makes an eclectic set of schemes, a large proportion of which are for road capacity and maintenance despite years of budget cuts to the latter. The result is more uncertainty that highlights a confused policy framework which leans towards appeasing the electorate rather than funding sustainable transport. This shift from major public transport investment to a scattering of funds for all sorts of local schemes is a rational response to how people travel, the vast majority of journeys being local. However, the inclusion of so much for car users rather than passenger transport dilutes the offer. There are many welcome suggestions but I will be amazed if they all progress.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Nick Richardson is technical director at transport consultancy WSP and chair of CILT’s Bus and Coach Policy Group and is a former chair of the Transport Planning Society.

In addition, he has held a PCV licence for over 36 years.

20 October 2023 | 21

18/10/2023 15:33

SPECIAL REPORT BRENT TODERIAN

Buses are ‘extremely sexy’

Brent Toderian spent six years as chief planner for Vancouver, Canada

“I often say buses are the completely sexy unsung heroes of urban transportation and thus urban city building,” said Toderian.

“And I say ‘completely sexy’ because for a long time, you know, folks like me used to say, ‘well buses aren’t sexy, not like light rail or heavy rail or or other higher order levels of transit, so to speak’. But I’ve stopped saying that because buses are extremely sexy to me, because they are about as flexible, cost-efficient etc as you can get in terms of a form of public transit.”

He accepted that many people won’t share his enthusiasm and conceded that work needed to be done on improving their reputation. And the best way to do this, he argued, is to get them to run on time.

“We can do a lot of bells and whistles for a better bus service,” he said, “but the key is that they need to be predictable.”

However, he argued that a reliable service won’t appeal to users if it’s infrequent: “If your buses are running every 45 minutes and they’re running on time, that’s still a lousy bus service.”

There’s no ‘battle’ with motorists

Making the case for public transport

Brent Toderian, a passionate advocate of public transport, spoke at this month’s CPT Scotland Conference. Robert Jack reports Brent Toderian is an internationally renowned practitioner and thought leader on city planning and transport, consulting on cities and projects across the globe.

He set up his own consultancy business, TODERIAN UrbanWORKS, in 2012 following six years as chief planner for the Canadian city of Vancouver, a globally renowned multi-modal city by design. He has twice been voted among the most influential global urbanists of all time by Planetizen.

Toderian is a combative and energetic campaigner for public transport - or transit as it is known in North America - and active travel. He has accumulated 152,000 followers on X/Twitter (@BrentToderian), where he 22 | 20 October 2023 PT299p22-23.indd 22

promotes a vision of less car dependent cities.

Earlier this month, he addressed the CPT Scotland Conference in Glasgow via a video link in a session chaired by Ralph Roberts, CEO of bus group McGill’s and the current president of CPT UK. And here are five of his key messages:

“We are not in a battle of motorists versus bus riders ... We’re all in this together” Brent Toderian

Toderian believes that public transport and active travel “are critically important to the operation and good planning and success of cities and city regions”.

“I think that’s our starting point and end point for public conversations about public transit,” he said.

“What I often say to cities, and to city leaders is, whether you care about public transit or not, whether you ever ride public transit or ever intend to ride public transit or not, your life, your existence in our urban societies and our suburban societies, is critically connected to bus being very attractive, public transit being very attractive, to other people. Because if you’re a driver and you always intend to a drive, the best thing you can hope for is public transit being as attractive as possible.”

The day before Toderian addressed the CPT Scotland Conference, the UK Government had launched its Plan for Drivers - a “new 30-point plan to support people’s freedom to use their cars and curb over-zealous enforcement measures”.

“We need to be able to have a conversation about public transit that stops pitting driving versus public transport or active transport something your prime minister in in the UK www.passengertransport.co.uk

18/10/2023 15:37

“We need to have a much more interesting and provocative conversation” needs to understand,” said Toderian.

“We are not in a battle of motorists versus bus riders, or motorists versus walkers or bike riders. We’re all in this together and the better that walking, biking and public transport works, the better the city and the city region works for everyone - including drivers.

“Anything other than that either doesn’t understand how cities work or is just trying to make you angry to, hopefully, get your vote or your clicks on social media.”

We need ‘plangineers’ “One of the lines we’ve said in Vancouver for a long time is the best transportation plan is a great land use plan,” said Toderian.

“In other words, your land use decisions, particularly in your suburbs, which usually have poor land use decisions that lead to car dependency ... are the bedrock of your success in public transport, and your success in active transport - walking and biking, scooters etc.”

He continued: “Here in Vancouver we use a term called ‘plangineer’, which is a term we used when we did the transportation plan in the late 1990s, which recognises that city planners, land use planners particularly, and transportation engineers, have one common definition of success - which is to make a better city.

“And so land, use planning and transportation infrastructure planning have to be planned together so that you get optimal success.”

In much of the world, there has been a separation of these disciplines. The result is that decision making on land use and transport infrastructure is not aligned.

“I often say, if you get your land use wrong it’s very hard to get your transportation infrastructure right because you just end up spending a lot of money on infrastructure connecting nothing with nothing over long distances,” Toderian explained.

Once the land use planning is aligned with transport planning it’s possible to create attractive public transport options, by using bus lanes or by providing Bus Rapid Transit.

“I you’re stuck in the same traffic as the cars there’s very little impetus for mode shift - in other words, doing trips by bus instead of trips by cars,” he said, “and you end up with buses being the last resort ... Bus Rapid Transit, the ability to by-pass the congestion, is probably the single most important things that cities can do to facilitate ridership post-pandemic.” www.passengertransport.co.uk

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Ridership is the ‘Holy Grail’ As the most flexible mode of transport, there is pressure on buses to serve as wide an area as possible, requiring resources to be reallocated from dense, higher frequency corridors to lower density suburbs. This trade off is sometimes framed as being a conflict between socialists (who want a service for everyone) and capitalists (who prioritise profit).

He believes that this is a false narrative.

“I have thought for a long time that we have the entirely wrong conversation about this choice,” said Toderian. “I am not shy in saying to cities that in a climate emergency, in an affordability emergency, when we are assembling land use and housing density in ways that can specifically facilitate ridership, through transit-oriented development ... we need the routes and the bus frequency to match those land use decisions.

“Ridership has to be our priority, and this is not a capitalist versus socialist perspective.

This is a very pragmatic, non-political, ‘how cities work’ kind of perspective.”

He acknowledges that this can be a tough decision, but he advises cities to emphasise ridership over coverage.

“Ridership is the Holy Grail ... We need fewer car trips, more public transit trips,” he argued. “I constantly remind decisionmakers that every transit trip actually benefits society in every way, including financially, because it doesn’t matter if transit pays for itself because transit provides an economic good to the city region, because car trips are heavily, heavily subsidised and bus transit trips are not. And so the more we get people riding buses, and walking and biking obviously, the better it is financially, economically, climatewise, affordability-wise etc.”

He added: “That is not a capitalist perspective, that is a public interest perspective. And so, when I’m working with cities and city regions, I’m trying to blow up this false narrative of capitalist versus socialist.”

Finally, Toderian maintained that a strategy of focusing resources on ridership can actually lead to improved coverage.

‘Tension is unavoidable’ Toderian said that tension was unavoidable when pushing for changes that support public transport and active travel. He uses social media and mainstream media to make the case

for change. And he’s not afraid to lock horns with those who declare that there is a “war on the motorist”.

“I use my Twitter feed to constantly beat the drum of how we need to fundamentally rethink how we think about public transport in our cities, and this whole fake narrative of drivers versus transit riders,” he said.

“I believe in social media. I believe in mainstream media. I believe in being less mind-numbingly boring than we usually are when we talk about these kinds of subjects, so that the public and the politicians actually pay attention and the media pays attention.

“Because we do need to break through the noise, break through the car advertisements ... and actually inform the public in interesting and memorable ways about the truth about how cities work and how public transit works.”

In addition to running a busy consultancy practice, Toderian devotes a lot of time to trying to influence public opinion.

He continued: “We need to have a much more interesting and provocative conversation and court the controversy in order to actually blow holes in the myths, etc, so that the politicians have better information and we can call BS on them when they’re doing clearly the wrong thing when they should know better.

“I often say knowing the right decisions is the easy part, actually getting the public to understand why it’s the right decision and getting the decision makers to make the right decision, even when it’s controversial, that is the hard part, and that is the part that we need to be much better at and spend more time at.”

Toderian has clients who want a conversation but don’t want to be controversial. His response is to tell them that this is impossible.

“I don’t know how to actually effect change without having a tension-filled, controversial conversation,” he said.

He said that he begins every conversation by talking about the five crises that our cities face: the climate crisis, the housing/affordability crisis, the public infrastructure cost crisis, the social equity/racism/classism crisis, and the public health crisis.

“These are the burning platforms ... that show us that the status quo is not working,” he said. “And in the context of a five crisis era, coming out of a pandemic, if we still have the wrong ideas, and they’re doing the wrong things, then shame on us.”

20 October 2023 | 23

18/10/2023 15:37

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18/10/2023 15:58

“Labour looks as if it might do what it says ... Labour action versus Conservative inaction?”

GREAT MINSTER GRUMBLES

Labour policy differs little from Tory Our Whitehall insider imagines what’s going on inside the minds of the mandarins at Great Minster House, home of the DfT

Given the probability of Labour forming the next government I decided to read Lousie Haigh’s speech at the Labour Party conference, given her position as shadow transport secretary. I confess to being somewhat underwhelmed, but then I don’t think I expected much else. So far as public transport is concerned, Louise didn’t say anything that hadn’t already been said.

But what struck me was how incredibly similar Labour’s policies for rail are compared to the Conservatives’. She said that Labour would deliver “bold reform” by delivering a “unified railway”. That sounds like bringing track and train back together, something which the Conservatives put at the heart of their Plan for Rail. She talked about “putting the passenger first”, also a core principle underpinning the Conservatives’ Plan for Rail.

She said Labour would create a single guiding mind. That sounds like Great British Railways (GBR), another proposal at the heart of the Conservatives’ Plan for Rail. And she said that a Labour transport secretary won’t run the railway day-to-day. That’s also the intention behind the Conservative’s Plan for Rail.

Of course, Louise repeated Labour’s plan to bring passenger services back under public sector ownership. Some are already under public sector control while the others are run under contracts tightly specified by the public sector. So what will the practical difference really be? But here’s a thing. Our minister of state, Huw Merriman, recently told the www.passengertransport.co.uk

PT299p24-25.indd 25

Transport Select Committee that it was his expectation that new contracts with the train operators would be in place by the end of the year, giving them greater incentives to invest.

That is, perhaps, the one main difference between the two parties. These new contracts may well have an initial short-term length with the ability for the contracts to be extended, as with the recently renewed contracts for Avanti West Coast and Cross Country. This might enable a Labour government to terminate the contracts at that break point and bring the services back under state control.

But I wonder if there may be legal constraints preventing Labour from doing so. Currently we have discretion whether to extend a contract at the review point or not, as I understand it. But

COMMENT

surely there is a presumption that if the train operator has met all of its obligations under the contract, met the performance standards and so on, then the contract will be extended for the further period set out in the contract.

Would there be a serious risk of a successful legal challenge if a Labour government sought to terminate a contract at the review point even if all contractual and performance obligations had been met? And I wonder if the new contracts that Huw Merriman has spoken of would be drawn up in such a way that Labour would indeed be at real risk of legal challenge.

Be that as it may, even if a Labour government was successful in bringing passenger services back under state control, would we really notice any difference given that the current contracts are so tightly specified and monitored by this department anyway, and that this department also has the ability to bring failing operators back under state control? So when you read Louise Haigh’s conference speech you can only come to one conclusion: there is pretty much no difference in principle between Labour’s plans for rail and the Conservatives’ Plan for Rail. To be fair, at least we can expect a Labour government to actually implement its plans and set up that single guiding mind, something that this government has failed to do.

On buses, Louise Haigh told us that one of the first acts of a Labour government will be to hand every area in England the power to take back control of bus services. They already have that power. I grant you that Labour may make the franchising process less burdensome.

But that power does already exist. It’s true that only a handful can introduce franchising without this department’s approval, but the fact remains that all authorities have the power to do so if they want to use it. Labour will also lift the ban on setting up municipal bus companies, something that the Conservatives have said they would consider doing, although nothing has actually happened on this. But if Labour fails to provide significantly increased funding, I can’t see much changing in practice.

The reality is that the differences between Conservative and Labour policies for rail and bus are pretty much non-existent. Sorry, there is one difference. Labour looks as if it might actually do what it says by setting up GBR and giving authorities the power to set up municipal bus companies: Labour action versus Conservative inaction?

20 October 2023 | 25

18/10/2023 15:58

“Labour looks as if it might do what it says ... Labour action versus Conservative inaction?”

GREAT MINSTER GRUMBLES

Labour policy differs little from Tory Our Whitehall insider imagines what’s going on inside the minds of the mandarins at Great Minster House, home of the DfT

Given the probability of Labour forming the next government I decided to read Lousie Haigh’s speech at the Labour Party conference, given her position as shadow transport secretary. I confess to being somewhat underwhelmed, but then I don’t think I expected much else. So far as public transport is concerned, Louise didn’t say anything that hadn’t already been said.

But what struck me was how incredibly similar Labour’s policies for rail are compared to the Conservatives’. She said that Labour would deliver “bold reform” by delivering a “unified railway”. That sounds like bringing track and train back together, something which the Conservatives put at the heart of their Plan for Rail. She talked about “putting the passenger first”, also a core principle underpinning the Conservatives’ Plan for Rail.

She said Labour would create a single guiding mind. That sounds like Great British Railways (GBR), another proposal at the heart of the Conservatives’ Plan for Rail. And she said that a Labour transport secretary won’t run the railway day-to-day. That’s also the intention behind the Conservative’s Plan for Rail.

Of course, Louise repeated Labour’s plan to bring passenger services back under public sector ownership. Some are already under public sector control while the others are run under contracts tightly specified by the public sector. So what will the practical difference really be? But here’s a thing. Our minister of state, Huw Merriman, recently told the www.passengertransport.co.uk

PT299p24-25.indd 25

Transport Select Committee that it was his expectation that new contracts with the train operators would be in place by the end of the year, giving them greater incentives to invest.

That is, perhaps, the one main difference between the two parties. These new contracts may well have an initial short-term length with the ability for the contracts to be extended, as with the recently renewed contracts for Avanti West Coast and Cross Country. This might enable a Labour government to terminate the contracts at that break point and bring the services back under state control.

But I wonder if there may be legal constraints preventing Labour from doing so. Currently we have discretion whether to extend a contract at the review point or not, as I understand it. But

COMMENT

surely there is a presumption that if the train operator has met all of its obligations under the contract, met the performance standards and so on, then the contract will be extended for the further period set out in the contract.

Would there be a serious risk of a successful legal challenge if a Labour government sought to terminate a contract at the review point even if all contractual and performance obligations had been met? And I wonder if the new contracts that Huw Merriman has spoken of would be drawn up in such a way that Labour would indeed be at real risk of legal challenge.

Be that as it may, even if a Labour government was successful in bringing passenger services back under state control, would we really notice any difference given that the current contracts are so tightly specified and monitored by this department anyway, and that this department also has the ability to bring failing operators back under state control? So when you read Louise Haigh’s conference speech you can only come to one conclusion: there is pretty much no difference in principle between Labour’s plans for rail and the Conservatives’ Plan for Rail. To be fair, at least we can expect a Labour government to actually implement its plans and set up that single guiding mind, something that this government has failed to do.

On buses, Louise Haigh told us that one of the first acts of a Labour government will be to hand every area in England the power to take back control of bus services. They already have that power. I grant you that Labour may make the franchising process less burdensome.

But that power does already exist. It’s true that only a handful can introduce franchising without this department’s approval, but the fact remains that all authorities have the power to do so if they want to use it. Labour will also lift the ban on setting up municipal bus companies, something that the Conservatives have said they would consider doing, although nothing has actually happened on this. But if Labour fails to provide significantly increased funding, I can’t see much changing in practice.

The reality is that the differences between Conservative and Labour policies for rail and bus are pretty much non-existent. Sorry, there is one difference. Labour looks as if it might actually do what it says by setting up GBR and giving authorities the power to set up municipal bus companies: Labour action versus Conservative inaction?

20 October 2023 | 25

18/10/2023 15:59

CAREERS

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TfL welcomes latest intake Graduate and apprenticeship schemes aim to cultivate diverse talent for London projects Transport for London has welcomed its latest diverse cohort of graduates, apprentices, and interns into the organisation.

More than 260 graduates, apprentices and interns joined TfL in September, working across the organisation in more than 50 different schemes, including engineering, technology and human resources.

These schemes have successfully attracted candidates from diverse backgrounds. Of the September 2023 intake, 42% of those joining TfL’s graduate schemes are women and 58% of apprentices come from ethnic minority backgrounds. Additionally, 60% of graduates and interns were from ethnic minority backgrounds in the last year, surpassing London’s working population (36%).

TfL recently introduced sustainability graduate and apprenticeship schemes to align with its goal of promoting a greener and more sustainable 2023 intake comes from a range of diverse backgorunds

26 | 20 October 2023 PT299p26-27.indd 26

London. Participants will collaborate with sustainability professionals to advance TfL’s sustainability objectives and contribute to a Net Zero transport network.

With ongoing projects like new trains on the Piccadilly line, Docklands Light Railway enhancements and various citywide walking and cycling improvements, TfL is continually seeking young talent to support these initiatives and maintain London’s daily operations.

“This is a particularly exciting time to join TfL as we work on becoming the strong green heartbeat of London and supporting the capital’s sustainable recovery following the pandemic,” said Fiona Brunskill, TfL’s chief people officer.

“Every graduate, apprentice and intern who joins us brings their own unique perspective and contribution enabling us to achieve our goals.”

APPOINTMENTS NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE COMMISSION The chancellor Jeremy Hunt has appointed Michèle Dix to the National Infrastructure Commission (NIC).

Dix (pictured) is currently a non-executive director at Crossrail International, the Department for Transport’s arms-length international transport consultancy business, and a non-executive director of the Major Projects Association.

She is also a visiting professor at Bartlett School of Planning at University College London.

Dix was previously at Transport for London as managing director of the planned Crossrail 2 project until October 2021. Prior to that role she was TfL’s managing director of planning. She started her career at the Greater London Council after completing her PhD in transport and land use planning.

AIRCOACH First Bus has announced the appointment of Kim Swan as managing director of Aircoach, its express Irish coach operation.

Swan (pictured) brings over 30 years of experience in customer and commercially focused roles across transport and logistics.

She was most recently interim managing director of P&O Ferries but had previously been director of freight sales at the ferry operator.

She succeeds Dervla McKay, who left First Bus earlier this year to join The Go-Ahead Group as managing director of its Dublin-based Go-Ahead Ireland operation (PT293).

CUBIC TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS Cubic Transportation Systems has announced that Peter Torrellas has officially begun his role as senior vice president of Cubic Corporation and president of Cubic Transportation Systems following the retirement of former president Jeff Lowinger.

Torrellas (pictured) is responsible for leading CTS’s strategic vision, growing its customer base, enhancing partnerships with existing customers and building on the long history of technology innovation around the world.

Prior to joining Cubic, Torrellas was the global business unit president of connected communities at Parsons Corporation, leading a team of 2,500 engineers, in addition to founding Parsons X, the digital transformation arm of Parsons Corporation.

CROSSCOUNTRY Train operator CrossCountry has announced the appointment of Harj Singh as finance director.

Singh (picured) started his career at National Express Group before leaving to take on the role of managing director for a residential developer. Before joining CrossCountry in an interim role, Singh worked on acquisitions of rail contracts and gained significant experience of working with government bodies.

Following a secondment as interim finance director, he has now joined CrossCountry on a permanent basis.

www.passengertransport.co.uk

18/10/2023 16:07

PT299p26-27.indd 27

18/10/2023 16:08

DIVERSIONS

The £3m interchange with no bus services

Docks Office, has a bus and taxi interchange facility and will include a park and ride facility when improvements to the adjacent Barry Docks railway station are completed.

However, bus operators Adventure

Travel and Cardiff Bus, which had floated the possibility of using the interchange earlier this year, abandoned ship.

Dr Ian Johnson, Plaid Cymru’s council leader, dubbed the situation surreal: no buses for Barry Docks Transport Interchange. “There’s no point in a bus station with no buses,” he said. “This is a major multi-million pound project that will not be used at any time soon for the reason it was built.”

There is some good news though: the council has revealed that in the short term it will be used for Transport for Wales rail replacement services. So that’s alright then!

voice of the automated on-board announcements.

The rocker took on the role in celebration of the launch of the Bee Network and Beyond the Music, what the organisers describe as “a new music festival and change-making conference”, with a spotlight on new music, grass roots venues and developing talent and infrastructure support for the city region.

“There surely can’t be any better way of marking the launch of the Bee Network and the first Beyond The Music than getting

one of Manchester’s most famous voices announcing the stops on his favourite Metrolink line,” said Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester.

A spokesperson for Gallagher added: “When the request was first made by Andy Burnham, Liam loved the idea of surprising tram users by doing the announcements and he was given the chance to choose his favourite line.”

We won’t give the game away about which line Gallagher chose, but here’s a hint; he’s a huge Manchester City supporter.

New facility is missing vital transport ingredient News reaches us from the Vale of Glamorgan in Wales where a new bus station has been completed... but no buses will actually use it.

The Vale of Glamorgan Council has confirmed that, despite spending almost £3m on the new Barry Docks Transport Interchange, at present it seems unlikely that any scheduled bus services will stop at the new facility.

The transport hub, located near the Grade II listed Barry

A case of bee here now?

‘OUR KID’ IS VOICE OF METROLINK

Passengers on Manchester’s Metrolink system had a surprise last week when former Oasis frontman Liam Gallagher made an appearance on one route as the

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All aboard the ‘LNER 1923 Restaurant’ time machine!

Train operator LNER is celebrating the brand’s centenary by whisking diners through a culinary whirlwind.

At a pop-up restaurant in York next month, for two nights only diners will be transported back to 1923, feasting on delicious dishes of yesteryear and pudding’s fit for the future.

The supper-club style experience will be fully immersive, designed to stimulate the senses and take diners back to a decade filled with optimism, rising prosperity and glitzy glamour.

So quite unlike 2023 then!

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28 | 20 October 2023

STEAM TRAINS TO FUTURE FEASTS

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18/10/2023 16:08