Passenger Transport: December 15, 2023 by Passenger Transport Publishing Ltd

ISSUE 303 15 DECEMBER 2023

NEWS, VIEWS AND ANALYSIS FOR A SECTOR ON THE MOVE

Bus use is up by 8% in London

Christmas cheer! London’s buoyant retail and hospitality sectors has spurred public transport recovery in the capital. Outside of London, bus groups reveal ‘very encouraging’ year-on-year passenger growth of 5-10% The festive period has brought encouraging signs of continued recovery in public transport passenger volumes. Transport for London in particular is continuing to bounce back from the pandemic, buoyed by strong trading in the capital’s retail and hospitality sectors.

TfL has this week reported soaring ridership numbers at key Tube stations close to Christmas attractions. Meanwhile, entries and exits at Oxford Circus station were 27% higher on Black Friday (November 24) than on average for each of the previous four Fridays. Known as the ‘Golden Quarter’,

the run-up to Christmas is a vital period for the retail and hospitality sectors, with many businesses relying on it for a significant proportion of their annual profits. TfL’s figures reveal how Londoners and visitors are using public transport to access the capital’s vast array of retail

opportunities and festive events. The Tube stop for Battersea Power Station, on the Northern line extension, saw 52,814 entries and exits on November 4, the day of the Battersea Park fireworks almost double the number seen on the previous Saturday.

NEWS

INNOVATION & TECH

COMMENT

CHRISTMAS BREAK Passenger Transport is taking an extended Christmas break. The next edition of the magazine will come out on January 12. Season’s greetings to all our readers!

Open access to Google and 25 years of link Cardiff and Go-Ahead ‘set caring about Edinburgh? new standard’ customers

Grand Union Trains plans new service

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New feature gives clarity on payments

Alex Warner hails Anthony Smith legacy

CONTINUED ON PAGE 11

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CONTENTS

PASSENGER TRANSPORT PO Box 5496, Westbury BA13 9BX 020 3950 8000 editorial@passengertransport.co.uk

Let’s hope 2024 sees the return of long term thinking 2023 isn’t a year that many in the passenger transport sector will look back on fondly. Under Rishi Sunak the government has became unclear whether it is an enthusiastic ally of public transport. The year began with the welcome boost for Robert Jack buses in England of a £2 fare cap, to encourage Managing Editor a sustained recovery in bus use. Credit where it is due. But, by March the House of Commons Transport Select Committee was lamenting that progress on the National Bus Strategy for England was “too slow, too piecemeal”. They were not wrong. Sunak does not appear to endorse the statements made in the bus strategy, such as the need to reallocate roadspace in favour of buses. Instead, in October, he gave us his contradictory Plan for Drivers. On the railway, future generations will curse the prime minister’s decision to hack HS2 back to a line linking Birmingham with Old Oak Common. Just like the ‘Eat out to help out’ scheme in August 2020, this was a policy that he implemented without first consulting the experts. And the flaws in his ‘Network North’ plan to reallocate the savings made by axing Hs2 north of Birmingham were soon exposed. Meanwhile, via its train operator proxies, the government gave us an energy-sapping debacle over ticket office closures, but failed to make time in its legislative programme for long awaited rail reforms. Let’s hope that the New Year sees the pendulum swing back to transport policies that genuinely represent “long-term decisions”. HAVE YOUR SAY Contact us with your news, views and opinion at: editorial@passengertransport.co.uk PASSENGER TRANSPORT editorial@passengertransport.co.uk forename.surname@ passengertransport.co.uk Telephone: 020 3950 8000 Managing Editor & Publisher Robert Jack Deputy Editor Andrew Garnett Contributing Writer Rhodri Clark Directors Chris Cheek, Andrew Garnett, Robert Jack OFFICE CONTACT DETAILS Passenger Transport Publishing Ltd PO Box 5496, Westbury BA13 9BX, UNITED KINGDOM Telephone (all enquiries): 020 3950 8000

EDITORIAL editorial@passengertransport.co.uk ADVERTISING ads@passengertransport.co.uk SUBSCRIPTIONS subs@passengertransport.co.uk ACCOUNTS accounts@passengertransport.co.uk Passenger Transport is only available by subscription. Subscription rates per year; UK £140 (despatch by Royal Mail post); Worldwide (airmail) £280 The editor welcomes written contributions and photographs, which should be sent to the above address. All rights reserved. No

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part of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part without the publisher’s written permission. Printed by Cambrian Printers Ltd, Stephens & George Print Group, Goat Mill Road, Dowlaid, Merthyr Tydfil CF48 3TD © Passenger Transport Publishing Ltd 2023 ISSN 2046-3278 SUBSCRIPTIONS HOTLINE 020 3950 8000

IN THIS ISSUE 14

WE NEED ONE LAST CHRISTMAS CRACKER

THE SILENT WAR ON THE BUS PASSENGER

WHY GRANGEMOUTH IS UNLIKELY TO CLOSE

GOODBYE 2023, OR IS IT GOOD RIDDANCE?

Capital investment in transport across English cities is welcome, but we must not forget London, says Jason Prince. “London could see a reverse of decades of hard work to get people onto public transport,” he warns.

ORGANISATION

PAGE

Alexander Dennis 13 Arriva London 7 Avanti West Coast 10-11 CPT Cymru 8 CrossCountry 10-11 Dumarey Group 7 East Midlands Railway 10-11 Go-Ahead Group 12 GoMetro 13 Go-op 10-11 Govia Thameslink Railway 13 Grand Union Trains 10-11 Kelsian Group 4 LNER 12 London Sovereign 4 London Transit 4 London United Busways 4 Mellor 7 Network Rail 9 Northumberland County Council 6 Omnibus 13 Office of Rail and Road 9 RATP Dev 4 RATP Dev Transit London 4 RMT Union 9 SkedGo 12 Stagecoach East Midlands 7 Stagecoach Group 13 Tower Transit 4 Transpennine Route Upgrade 6 Transport Focus 13 Transport for London 1, 4, 7, 11 Transport for West Midlands 5 Treka 7 Uno 7 Urban Things 12 WN V-Tech Holdings 7 WSMR 10-11

A new report quantifies the decline in bus services in England and Wales. Ultimately decline will continue unless funding increases, says Nick Richardson. “What it all boils down to is the inconvenient truth that car use is out of control,” he adds.

Last month’s announcement about plans to close the Grangemouth Oil Refinery in 2025 was puzzling - and it has strategic implications for the UK, says James Spencer. “Is it possible that the announcement is part of a political game of poker?” he asks.

Our Whitehall insider imagines what’s going on inside the minds of the mandarins at Great Minster House, home of the Department for Transport. “With HS2 and Great British Railways. 2023 hasn’t been the greatest year for us here in Great Minister House.”

REGULARS NEWS INNOVATION & TECH COMMENT OIL MARKET REPORT GRUMBLES CAREERS DIVERSIONS

04 12 14 24 25 26 28

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NEWS ROUND-UP

RATP Dev writes off London bus business French transport group makes move as losses mount at struggling bus operation as a result of increasing costs and declining performance FINANCIALS

RATP Dev has written off the value of its London bus business amidst mounting losses, but the French transport group has given assurance that it will continue to provide support to the business for at least the next 12 months. The move follows months of rumours surrounding the future of the beleaguered operation. Accounts for RATP Transit London Ltd were filed last week and they reveal a loss of £62.9m largely on the back of the impairment of its investment in its principal three London bus subsidiaries - London United Busways Ltd, London Sovereign Ltd and London Transit Ltd. The accompanying directors’ report confirms once again that RATP initiated a “strategic reflection” process on the future of the company and its subsidiaries at the end of 2022. “This process has been launched to define the means to strategically strengthen the position of the London business, regardless of the shareholding structure,” said Federico Tonetti, RATP Dev’s senior vice president for its operations in the UK and South Africa. The scale of RATP Dev’s problems in the London market are illustrated by the results of the three subsidiaries. Accounts filed for the year ending December 31, 2022, in early November for London Sovereign and London United reveal losses of £4.6m and £24.8m 04 | 15 December 2023 PT303p04-05.indd 4

Business made substantial losses in FY2022

on the back of turnover of £45.7m and £179.9m respectively. Meanwhile, for the same period London Transit, the former Tower Transit operation based at Westbourne Park Garage in West London, reported a loss of £9.9m on turnover of £33.5m. In September, RATP Dev acquired the 12.5% stake in RATP Dev Transit London that it did not own from Kelsian Group, Tower Transit’s parent company (PT301). It marked the withdrawal of the Australian group from the London market after 10 years. While the Westbourne Park operations had become part of a joint venture with RATP Dev, Tower Transit’s Lea Interchange garage in East London passed to Stagecoach London in June 2022.

“The increased operating loss... can be attributed to a number of factors” Federico Tonetti

Writing in the directors’ report for London United, Tonetti admits 2022 was a challenging year for the business with the pressure of inflation impacting significantly on the cost base. He continued: “As the UK recovered from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the company has also experienced impacts from increasing traffic and continuing staff shortages.” Tonetti also highlighted some of the struggles that many London bus operators are facing. Competition for bus contracts remains fierce in a market that is slowly contracting as Transport for London better matches capacity with demand, particularly on routes into central London, a sizeable proportion of the operator’s business. Tonetti continued: “The increased operating loss... can be attributed to a number of factors: a significant increase in staff costs from agreed pay deals, a high level of driver shortages that resulted in higher mileage penalties, higher depreciation

charges reflective of an increase in fixed assets following the electric [bus] route wins and the related garage electrification and a year of exceptionally high insurance claim costs.” He said mileage delivered has increased from 2021 to 2022 due to a mix of route wins and losses and reduced industrial action in 2022. Staff numbers have fallen despite the routes wins, reflecting the high level of driver shortages. “An increase in Excess Waiting Time (EWT) and a decline in On Time Demand (OTD) KPI in 2022 reflects weaker performance compared to 2021. This has been impacted by an increase in traffic volumes as lockdown restrictions eased,” Tonetti explained. “EWT is a KPI for high frequency routes and is defined as an extra time that passengers have had to wait above the scheduled waiting period. The ultimate objective is to minimise EWT. The OTD measure for lower frequency routes is a window from two and a half minutes earlier than scheduled to five minutes later than scheduled. The ultimate objective is to maximise on time departures.” He said fluctuations in fuel costs were being managed and partly offset by TfL contract indexation and fuel hedging. With an increasing number of zero-emission electric buses in the fleet, London United had experienced significant increases in the cost of electricity, but the company had now entered into forward purchases in order to reduce exposure to costs. Tonetti concluded: “Overall, despite a challenging year of external market factors that weighed heavily on the company’s financial and operating performance, we are confident in the future and long-term outlook for the business. www.passengertransport.co.uk

13/12/2023 17:03

Bus patronage up but still a long way to go Strong growth reported across Great Britain in FY2022-23 PATRONAGE

Patronage on buses in Great Britain experienced an increase in the 2022-23 financial year when compared to the previous year, according to new figures from the Department for Transport. Across England, Scotland and Wales, the number of journeys increased by 20.0%, reaching 3.745 billion in 2022-23, up from 3.121 billion the previous year. Scotland witnessed the highest growth rate at 29.0%, totalling 301 million journeys. In England, including London, there was a 19.3% increase to 3.383 billion journeys, while Wales experienced a growth of 15.8% (61 million). However, it is important to

WEST MIDS PLANS FREE BUS SCHEME Move aims to replicate Netflix growth tactic REGULATION

Transport for West Midlands is set to implement an initiative worth £19m to increase bus passenger numbers and safeguard services. The try-before-you-buy bus ticket scheme, allocated as part of the £88m Bus Service Improvement Plan funding received last year, will focus on attempting to stimulate modal shift amongst potential bus passengers. The scheme will be offered to various key target groups including large employers, hospitals and retailers whose staff mostly drive to www.passengertransport.co.uk

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place figures into the context of the sigificant disruption to bus patronage as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. The current total is still 21.8% lower than the 4.786 billion journeys reported in Great Britain in 2018-19. Of these, 4.311 billion were in England, with 375 million journeys in Scotland and 101 million in Wales. These represent falls in patronage of 21.5%, 19.7% and 39.6% respectively when compared to FY2022-23. There were 1.766 billion passenger journeys made by bus in London in FY2022-23, an increase of 19.6% compared with the year ending March 2022. However, this is 19.6% below the figure for FY2018-19 when 2.198 billion bus journeys were made in the capital. Outside the capital, the East of England and the South East are

leading the pack on patronage growth in England where 140 million and 158 million passenger journeys were reported in 2022-23, representing patronage increases of 25.5% and 23.5% respectively. At the other end of the scale the North East reported 128 million passenger journeys, growth of 13.7%. Despite passengers returning to the bus in 2022-23, the total mileage operated decreased by 4.4% to 1.245 billion miles, down from 1.302 billion miles in FY2021/22. Local authoritysupported mileage, however, increased by 8.8% during the same period. Commercial mileage outside London witnessed a 7.0% decline, and within London mileage dropped by 3.4%. The average number of bus passenger journeys per head in

work, to encourage them to leave the car at home. Also targeted are those who are changing travel patterns after moving house or starting a new job, former season ticket holders and people who could try the bus for occasional trips to the shops, an NHS appointment or leisure activity. Travel will be provided through a Swift smartcard or mobile app and it will be by invite only. The approach draws parallels with promotional deals commonly offered by streaming services such as Netflix to attract new customers. In addition to supporting bus services, the allocated funding aims to bolster bus patronage and, by reducing reliance on cars, alleviate traffic congestion. It also aligns with the region’s #wm2041 goal of achieving Net Zero within the next

two decades. “Buses are the backbone of our public transport network providing vital services for hundreds of thousands of people every day,” said West Midlands mayor Andy Street. “I’m really pleased therefore that patronage on our buses is now above pre-pandemic levels, however we still need to do so much more to

Swift card to be used for scheme

England outside London was 34 for 2022-23. This is higher than the previous year but lower than in 2019-20 where the figure was 42. Brighton & Hove was the local authority area with the highest number of bus passenger journeys per head with 140 journeys in 2022-23. Nottingham reported 118 journeys per head with Reading at 101. Tyne & Wear clocked up 74 journeys, just ahead of Southampton at 73. At the other end of the table Rutland reported just three bus journeys per head during the year, ahead of Cheshire East and Windsor and Maidenhead which reported seven journeys. As at March 2023 there were 30,154 buses in England, 8,788 of them in London. The DfT reports 96% had CCTV and 22% charging points. A further 25% had free Wi-Fi access and 93% were enabled for contactless payments. 98% had automatic vehicle location equipment and 49% audio visual information.

get people onto public transport to tackle congestion and the climate emergency. That’s why we’ve launched this new scheme to entice more people onboard our buses, and I would urge anyone offered the chance - both lapsed and first-time bus customers - to take part and give the bus a go. “This new scheme is of course just one part of a wide range of improvements we are bringing to our bus network with investment in cleaner zero-emission buses, bus priority measures on the new Sprint routes improving reliability, and some of the cheapest bus fares in the country.” A number of large West Midlands employers, such as NHS Trusts, already offer discounted bus ticketing schemes to staff. 15 December 2023 | 05

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Bus patronage up but still a long way to go Strong growth reported across Great Britain in FY2022-23 PATRONAGE

WEST MIDS PLANS FREE BUS SCHEME Move aims to replicate Netflix growth tactic REGULATION

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Swift card to be used for scheme

13/12/2023 15:46

NEWS ROUND-UP

£3.9m injected into Transpennine upgrade Latest phase will increase capacity in West Yorkshire INVESTMENT

The Transpennine Route Upgrade (TRU) has secured a £3.9bn funding boost to enhance capacity between Manchester, Huddersfield, Leeds, and York. This increases the project’s total funding to £6.9bn, with the initial £3bn allocated for early benefits delivery by the mid2030s, including electrification. Additional funding, expected to bring the total cost to £11.5bn, will be confirmed as the project progresses. The government has also confirmed it will assist TransPennine Express in exploring options for up to 29 new trains, replacing the train operator’s existing fleet of Class 185 diesel multiple units, and acquiring new trains for local stopping services operated by

Northern on the route. Key initiatives supported by the £3.9bn TRU investment include eliminating bottlenecks between Huddersfield and Ravensthorpe in West Yorkshire. This project will double the number of tracks from two to four and allow faster trains to overtake slower stopping and freight services. Upon completion, the upgrade aims to provide up

A new viaduct at Ravensthorpe will double the number of tracks

Northumberland Line opening delayed Engineering issues see project’s timeline revised PROJECTS

The reopening of the 18-mile Northumberland Line, connecting Newcastle and Ashington, is facing a delay until the end of 2024 due to construction delays on two of the line’s new stations. Initially planned for a summer 2024 launch, setbacks in constructing new stations at

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to eight trains per hour, increased seating capacity, and a 10-minute reduction in journey times between Manchester and York by the mid-2030s. The investment will also facilitate the introduction of digital signalling, enabling trains to operate more closely, resulting in increased capacity and more services, including an additional

Bedlington and Blyth Bebside due to engineering and subsidence issues have prompted a revised timeline. While work on the line’s other three stations is progressing as planned, the entire project is now expected to be operational “by this time next year,” according to Northumberland County Council. It added that services

may commence without work on all the stations completed. Northumberland County Council leader Glen Sanderson said there had been “some delays with some of the key partners”. “There have also been issues like ground subsidence and inflation,” he said. “It is very much our intention to have the majority of the line running by next year. “To be honest, it is out of our hands. We have waited 70 years to get this line running, another few months is nothing.”

semi-fast service between Hull and Manchester and a local stopping service. Reports have also suggested there will be an emphasis on minimising disruption during construction phase of these projects with station enhancements, station signalling improvements, a more refined timetable, better organised diversionary services and improved depot and stabling facilities. “This commitment by the government to our programme allows us to move two of our largest projects from design into construction and delivery,” said Neil Holm, TRU managing director. “It brings us one big step closer to delivering the future of rail travel in the North of England.” Separately, Bradford and Hull will be integrated into the Northern Powerhouse Rail scheme, leveraging claimed savings from the cancellation of the Manchester leg of HS2. The new Bradford station is expected to support regeneration efforts, creating a new rail connection to Manchester via Huddersfield, halving journey times, and doubling service frequency and capacity with up to an additional 1,000 seats per hour. “This is a major milestone for the TRU project as it upgrades a key rail corridor across the North,” said Darren Oldham, Transport for the North’s director of rail and road. “TfN has been working with partners for some years to bring forward these benefits, which will lay the foundations for further transformational development from Northern Powerhouse Rail. It will also reduce the pressure on the road network, particularly the M62 between West Yorkshire and Manchester.” www.passengertransport.co.uk

13/12/2023 16:30

Mellor parent company bought by Dumarey Belgian industrialist sees synergies with existing operations MANUFACTURERS

Belgian industrialist Guido Dumarey, a prominent player in the European automotive sector, has acquired minibus manufacturers Mellor and Treka and a number of other businesses owned by WN V-Tech Holdings from administrators. In a statement, newly renamed parent company Woodall Nicholson confirmed Dumarey has acquired the businesses of Coleman Milne, VCS Police & Special Projects, Mellor, Treka, Promech Technologies, and JM Engineering. “These businesses are now seamlessly integrated into new companies consolidated under the

STAGECOACH DEAL SEES UNO OUT University of Northampton to switch bus provider CONTRACTS

Bus operator Uno appears poised to depart from Northampton after the University of Northampton signed a contract with Stagecoach to manage a small network of services. Owned by the University of Hertfordshire, Uno entered the town in 2012, taking on two routes formerly operated by First, followed by a third route in 2013. The University of Northampton has officially stated that its partnership with Uno will conclude in March, with Stagecoach Midlands taking over services. The university said the decision to switch operator www.passengertransport.co.uk

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umbrella of Woodall Nicholson, a new holding reflecting the rich heritage of the group as a leading specialist vehicle manufacturer in Europe,” the company added. With operations and subsidiaries in Belgium, France, Italy, China, and the UK, the Dumarey Group employs over 3,000 staff. Since 2009 Dumarey has focused on the automotive industry, engaging in the development and production of various automotive components such as automatic transmissions, injectors, flywheels, kinetic energy recovery systems and e-mobility. Dumarey has also been actively investing in hydrogen powertrain solutions, including internal combustion engines powered by hydrogen, aligning with the industry’s shift towards sustainable mobility.

“This is an exciting acquisition for us,” said Dumarey. “The Woodall Nicholson businesses have a strong market position and a disruptive product portfolio, as is evident in their robust order book. We’re eager to collaborate with their talented teams to continue delivering innovative mobility solutions. This marks a significant step towards our commitment to shaping a future where environmentally conscious transportation is accessible to all.” “We are delighted to have reached this agreement with Dumarey,” said joint administrator Daniel Smith of Teneo. “The transaction has secured the transfer of over 450 jobs located across the North. We wish the business, its staff and its new owners every success in the future.”

aims to adapt to the evolving public transport landscape and a growing desire to better integrate transport services at the University of Northampton with existing links in the town and neighbouring areas. A spokesperson explained that by incorporating the university’s bus network into the wider local network, staff and students will gain access to a broader range of services across the town and beyond. “We are thankful for the service provided by Uno buses for the past 10 years and look forward to continuing delivering a gold star service with Stagecoach,” said Tracey Russell, the university’s director of estates and campus services. “We are proud of the transport links we have already built between University sites, accommodation

buildings and the main travel hubs of Northampton, and we look forward to continuing to nurture these in the coming years.” Uno has not yet confirmed its plans for the future of the operation, which currently employs 50 staff and also operates a tendered rural bus service on behalf of West Northamptonshire Council.

Uno has operated in Northampton since 2012

IN BRIEF SUPERLOOP’S SUPER GROWTH Transport for London has revealed a rise in patronage on its recently introduced Superloop bus network. In October, Route SL7 (West Croydon-Heathrow Airport) saw a substantial 62% surge in weekly demand compared to June, pre-Superloop branding. TfL highlights that the frequency of Route SL7 doubled from two buses per hour to four buses per hour after its relaunch, contributing to patronage growth. Meanwhile, Route SL8 (Uxbridge-White City), benefitting from extended operating hours post-relaunch, experienced a 15% boost in demand during the same period. Despite maintaining the same service levels, Route SL6 (West Croydon-Russell Square) has seen a 16% increase in patronage, while SL9 (Heathrow Airport-Harrow) saw a 3% rise in October compared to June. ARRIVA WINS SUPERLOOP Arriva will operate the lastest phase of the Superloop network, Route SL5, linking Bromley with Croydon, Transport for London has announced. The contract will commence in February 2024 with a peak vehicle requirement of 10 existing single deck vehicles. CYCLING GROWTH Transport for London’s latest Travel in London report reveals a 6.3% year-on-year increase in daily cycle journeys to 1.26 million in 2023, up 20% since 2019. While central London grew by 1.7%, inner and outer London saw strong increases of 8.2% and 5.5% respectively compared to 2022. Cycling’s share of all journeys hit 4.5% in 2022/23, a significant rise from the prepandemic 3.6% in 2019-20.

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NEWS ROUND-UP

South East Wales buses receive extra support Welsh Government provides up to £6.8m to help region’s buses BUS FUNDING

The Welsh Government has agreed to provide “limited additional funding” to the Bus Transition Fund (BTF) in this financial year. The additional funding, of up to £6.8m, comes as statistics reveal that bus patronage recovery in Wales has been lagging far behind England and Scotland. The government acknowledged last summer that this year’s BTF, which is the final allocation of Covid-related support payments, was less than would be needed to sustain the network at its current size. A shortfall of £7m to £9m was spoken of. There were estimates that the bus network had reduced by 10% in the summer, with further contraction occurring in the autumn (PT299) and registered for next month (PT302). Climate change minister Julie James announced the additional funding on December 1, and explained it was for South East

Wales only. “It will only be used to support the current network should it be required following reconciliation exercises,” she said. Passenger Transport understands that the funding is intended to make up for a larger than expected shortfall in the financial forecasts for South East Wales. Estimating the shortfall was more difficult there than in other regions because it had the largest concentration of commercially operated services. CPT Cymru director Aaron Hill said: “Bus operators have been working closely with Welsh Government and local authorities to protect as many bus services as possible in recent months, and this additional funding will provide important certainty to operators

“We have seen impressive growth on many bus services in Wales”

Julie James

by the pandemic. CONCESSIONARY unaffected The reduction in England was TRAVEL DOWN 25% 27% and in Wales 45%. Scotland

Statistics reveal the scale of post-pandemic decline CONCESSIONARY TRAVEL

New statistics for bus passenger journeys in 2022/23 confirm that concessionary pass holders continued to stay off buses in droves after pandemic travel restrictions ended. The provisional number of concessionary bus journeys in Great Britain in 2022/23 was 25% lower than in 2018/19, the last full year 08 | 15 December 2023 PT303p08-09.indd 8

bucked the trend with a small increase in concessionary journeys over the same period, thanks to the introduction of free travel for young people aged under 22 in January 2022. There was a 31% reduction in concessionary journeys by elderly and disabled people in Scotland. Concessionary journeys in London were relatively resilient. They fell by 23% since 2018/19, compared with 32% in the rest of England.

through to March next year. “We have seen impressive growth on many bus services in Wales in recent months, with operators investing heavily in marketing their services and ensuring as many routes as possible can return to commerciality in April. It is vital that Welsh Government support this continued growth with a commitment to long-term funding for services and bus priority infrastructure in their draft budget in December.” James also said: “By the end of this financial year the bus industry will have received over £200m in government support to help them manage the impact of the Covid pandemic, rising costs and lower passenger numbers. We have always been clear that the Bus Transition Fund will require in-year management and this is another example of the Welsh Government’s support to the bus industry. “We continue to meet regularly with local authorities and bus operators to monitor the fund’s

expenditure. It is crucial that we all play our part in supporting the industry - it binds our communities together, provides equality of access, and is relied upon by those who have no other choice.” Newly published statistics reveal that 61 million passenger journeys were made on Welsh buses in 2022/23, compared with 101 million in 2018/19. The 39.6% reduction in Wales compares with 21.5% in England and 19.7% in Scotland, where passenger numbers may have been given a boost by initiatives such as England’s Bus Service Improvement Plans and £2 fare cap and Scotland’s Under-22 concessionary travel scheme. The Welsh Government has a target of increasing the share of journeys made by sustainable transport to 35% by 2025. An industry source said Welsh bus passenger journeys had grown since March 2023, with operators and Transport for Wales collaborating on a “Back to Bus” marketing campaign. Operators were now reporting that vehicles on some routes were approximately as full now as they were before the pandemic, but that also reflected significant reductions in the numbers of seats on Welsh routes in the last eight months.

In England and Wales, the share of bus journeys made using concessionary passes decreased in 2022/23 from the prior year, indicating that fare-payers returned to using buses at a faster rate than concessionary passengers. Wales, which in 2002 was the first GB nation to introduce concessionary bus travel for all pensioners and disabled people, still has the highest proportion of bus passengers in those categories. They accounted for 38.3% of bus passenger journeys in Wales in 2022/23. That was a

significant drop from the peak of 46.6% in 2019/20. The comparable figures for 2022/23 were 19% in England and 32.2% in Scotland. For all types of concessionary journeys, the English average was 31.1% in 2022/23, with the highest regional proportions being in the North West (36.4%), North East (35.0%) and London (32.9%). The lowest was in the East Midlands (24.9%). The proportion was 43.2% in Wales and 48.6% in Scotland, where more than a third of the population get free bus travel. www.passengertransport.co.uk

13/12/2023 15:50

Rail revenues increase but subsidies continue Rail fares saw a significant increase in 2022-23, but despite a decline, government support still remains substantially higher than pre-Covid FUNDING

New statistics from the Office of Rail and Road have revealed continued recovery in the rail industry from the pandemic with increased fares revenue and government support reducing. For the 2022-23 year, the ORR reports that fares income surged by £2.2bn to £8.6bn, demonstrating a positive trajectory for the industry. But the regulator also notes that patronage and revenue were adversely affected during the year by 29 days of industrial action. Despite a decrease in government support to £11.9bn, it still stands at a significant 59.8% higher for the operational railway than compared to pre-pandemic levels. The ORR’s statistics also shed light on several key aspects of the rail sector’s financial landscape. Passenger journeys experienced a substantial 39.9% increase during the year, reaching 1.4 billion, although this is still around 300 million less than pre-pandemic figures. The average passenger fare per journey declined to £6.20, marking a 4.7% decrease from the previous year and over 10% lower than three years ago. Regulated fares, pegged to average earnings growth rather than the higher Consumer Price Index inflation measures, played a key role in this decline. Operational income showed positive momentum, totaling £22.7bn, which represented a £1.4bn increase over the 2021-22 period. However, when adjusted www.passengertransport.co.uk

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for inflation, this indicated a real terms fall of £0.8bn or 3.2% compared to the previous year. Within the operational income, franchised operator fares contributed £8.4bn, supplemented by £600m from other sources and £210m from non-franchised passenger rail operators. Overall government funding for the sector stood at £21.1bn. This was directed into projects such as £6.9bn for High Speed 2, £2bn for infrastructure and enhancements, and £400m for miscellaneous support and East West Rail. Infrastructure controller Network Rail received £7.5bn of operational funding, a 4.1% increase. However, support for franchised train operators experienced a significant 41.1% decline to £4.4bn. as a result of increasing patronage and revenue. Operational costs were £21.3bn excluding Network Rail’s financing costs. This £0.8bn (3.7%) annual decrease was largely due to £0.4bn (5.4%) of reduced renewals and operating expenditure by Network Rail. Franchised train operator expenditure also reduced, by £0.3bn, a 2.2% decline, largely due to a decrease in staff costs and rolling stock charges.

“Rail has still continued its post pandemic recovery” Will Godfrey, ORR

Nevertheless, Network Rail’s financing costs for its legacy debt increased by 35% to reach £4.1bn, influenced by higher interest rates and rising inflation. Over the past three years, industry costs rose by 9.3% to £2.2bn. The ORR said these cost increases can largely be explained by additional expenditure on the mainline network, new rolling stock and increased financing costs. Breaking down those costs, staff emerged as the most significant expense for franchised operators, accounting for £3.7bn of the £11.7bn total. Network Rail charges amounted to £3.4bn, and rolling stock leasing costs contributed £3.1bn, forming the bulk of the remaining expenditure. For Network Rail, financing emerged as the single most substantial cost, followed by spending on renewals (£4bn), operating costs (£2.7bn), and maintenance (£2.1bn). Will Godfrey, ORR director of economics, finance and markets, said: “This year, in the context of rising inflation and industrial action, we see that rail has still continued its post pandemic recovery. Passenger journeys have increased significantly, helped in part due to the Elizabeth Line’s opening, and were 40% up on the previous year. Our figures also show that as a result of returning passengers, fare revenue continued to rise and that government support for the day to day running of the railway has reduced.”

IN BRIEF ORR PROBES TICKET FEES The Office of Rail and Road has tasked online rail ticket retailers to review fee presentation due to concerns over ‘drip pricing.’ Drip pricing involves revealing additional fees after an initial price, impacting consumer decisions. Of 19 third-party ticket retailers reviewed, 12 charged booking fees, with seven not including them upfront. The regulator has urged the inclusion of fees in upfront prices, clear breakdowns, and transparent information. CATERING LACKS COMPETITION The Office of Rail and Road has concluded that the railway station catering market is lacking effective competition. The regulator notes prolonged outlet control due to protected leases has hindered incentives for station operators to foster competition. The investigation also identifies a 10% price premium at stations compared to the high street. ORR’s ongoing inquiry aims to formulate recommendations for government, station operators, funders, and stakeholders to enhance market functionality. ‘DISPUTES COULD WORSEN’ The RMT union has claimed the government’s own impact assessment covering the railway minimum service regulations admits that it would worsen industrial relations and threaten safety. “The assessment also highlights the real agenda behind these reforms is so bosses can reduce workers’ wages and accelerate the introduction of reforms which will worsen passenger safety and accessibility,” said RMT general secretary Mick Lynch.

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13/12/2023 15:51

NEWS ROUND-UP

Grand Union applies to run non-London trains Open access operator plans EdinburghCardiff service OPEN ACCESS

Grand Union Trains is seeking access rights to run the first open access passenger services which would exclude London. It says its proposed services between Cardiff and Edinburgh via Birmingham would provide a much-needed uplift in capacity and cheaper fares. All current open access services operate to and from London, as did the short-lived Wrexham to Marylebone operation. GUT aims to introduce London to Stirling and London to Carmarthen services in the next two years, and is now developing plans for five Cardiff to Edinburgh trains per day in each direction from late 2025. A co-operative company called Go-op proposed services in Wiltshire and Somerset more than a decade ago but they never came to fruition. It reiterated its plans last year. The latest proposals from GUT and Wrexham, Shropshire &

Midlands Railway (see separate article) come as ministers indicate a more supportive government stance on open access than in the past. Rail minister Huw Merriman, a long-time advocate of open access, attended an open access summit last month (PT302). In his George Bradshaw address in February, transport secretary Mark Harper said: “We will support more open access services where it benefits passengers and taxpayers. We’ve seen this work well with Hull Trains and Grand Central as well as with Lumo.” These services offered passengers

GUT’s Cardiff to Edinburgh services could use Class 222s

2008 to 2011. The previous PLANS TO REVIVE from service was unable to use the West WREXHAM SERVICE Coast Main Line into London and

New service to London Euston is proposed OPEN ACCESS

A new company has applied to the Office of Rail and Road for rights to operate open access passenger trains between Wrexham and London Euston. The trains would be approximately an hour faster than the open access service operated by the Wrexham, Shropshire & Marylebone Railway 10 | 15 December 2023 PT303p10-11.indd 10

greater choice and more direct links, he said. “Open access operators will play an important role in the industry’s future, especially as we grow new markets and make best use of spare capacity on the network.” However, DfT-sponsored train operators have twice pre-empted GUT proposals. In September, the DfT announced that CrossCountry would launch a daily Cardiff to Edinburgh service as part of the operator’s new direct award. This will be resourced primarily by combining existing Cardiff to Birmingham and

was routed via the Chiltern line into London Marylebone. The new Wrexham, Shropshire & Midlands Railway company has the same initials. It has used the December 2023 timetable to validate its proposed paths for five trains in each direction on weekdays and Saturdays, taking account of other proposed service changes along the route. It proposes to run four trains on Sundays.

WSMR has applied for access rights for seven years initially, starting in May 2025. The trains would call intermediately at Gobowen, Shrewsbury, Telford Central, Wolverhampton, Darlaston, Walsall, Coleshill Parkway, Nuneaton and Milton Keynes. Darlaston station is under construction. WSMR says its trains could call at the planned Aldridge station on the Sutton Park line between Walsall and Water Orton, currently used only for freight. It is currently undertaking a feasibility study of increasing Sutton

Birmingham to Edinburgh trains. Regarding this innovation, GUT managing director Ian Yeowart told Passenger Transport: “Despite the fact that it has been public since before us, we shared the information [about GUT’s Cardiff-Edinburgh proposal] with the DfT in May. It’s no coincidence that CrossCountry have looked to do something. The fact they’ve gone out before us is with a view to it looking as though we’re pinching their ideas.” However, the DfT said CrossCountry had presented its idea for a Cardiff to Edinburgh return service to the Department over a year ago, well before any open access application for this corridor was known. GUT’s planned Carmarthen to London open access services were pre-empted in May when Great Western Railway extended more of its Swansea to London services to start at Carmarthen. Before GUT was granted access rights for Carmarthen to London, GWR had argued that the proposed services would involve “mega-abstraction with little if any generation”, on the grounds that there was little new revenue to be gained west of Swansea. Yeowart said CrossCountry’s new service would not deter

Park line speed. The new service would initially use Class 221 or 222 units, currently leased by Avanti West Coast and East Midlands Railway. Birminghambased WSMR would develop a business case to support possible fitting of battery technology for short distances. During the seven years it would install intelligent engine start/stop technology and modified engines which meet Euro 3b emissions standards, which if successful would reduce NOx by 70% and particulates by 80%. www.passengertransport.co.uk

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“We will bring in competition to the eye-watering charges on the route”Ian Yeowart GUT because CrossCountry was providing insufficient capacity on its core sections of route. “I despair when I see a four-car train going through York packed, going to Plymouth or Penzance,” he said. “We’ve been working on Cardiff to Edinburgh for a long time. We discussed it with the DfT. To be fair to them, they think it’s desperately needed.” GUT would initially use Class 222/223 diesel units. Its application says GUT would provide around one million additional seats annually along this route. Yeowart said: “We will bring in competition to the eye-watering charges on the route, which is why a lot of people go via London to South Wales [from the North East and Edinburgh].” GUT’s application says that “ticket prices between various ECML locations and South Wales are particularly expensive with walk on anytime single fares between York and Cardiff for example at £161.80 and £359.40 1st class. Between Edinburgh and Cardiff, the walk on single fare is £233.20. A 1st class walk on single is £429.00. All these services do of course require a change of train at present.” Passenger Transport asked the DfT whether it was behaving

hypocritically by publicly supporting open access while allowing two of its sponsored train operators to pre-empt planned open access services. A DfT spokesperson responded: “This claim is simply untrue - all applications are considered in a fair and open process, based on providing passengers better value for money and more efficient services.” The DfT also said that the government had not objected to GUT’s proposals to operate Carmarthen services. Its response to the ORR’s consultation in 2021 concluded: “In summary, the Department considers the application is primarily abstractive in nature, impacting on taxpayers funding of the railway at a time when rail revenue nationally is extremely constrained. It would have a substantial and overall negative effect for passengers on (an already crowded in normal circumstances) GWML network in relation to capacity and performance, on an area of the network which is already well serviced by passenger services, which support the connectivity of our Union. We consider that these impacts must be examined in detail as the application is considered.”

New seat reservation technology would allow customers to reserve seats up to 10 minutes before boarding at any location. The company says in its application that Wrexham, Shrewsbury and Telford enjoy only one direct train to London each day and otherwise rely on connecting services. “Walsall which has no direct London service at all, depending on necessarily slow local links to the major interchange station at Birmingham New Street.” WSMR says that its proposition “creates new connectivity meeting

a wide variety of needs” and “offers travel options to and from London simply not provided by rail in 2023, as well as ‘cross-north Midlands’ around the heavily trafficked and congested northern side of the West Midlands conurbation and its ‘Birmingham Box’ motorway/highway network”. The company also says that its service would provide an opportunity for the DfT to reduce Avanti West Coast operating costs through the removal of the need to provide one service per day to Telford and Shrewsbury.

www.passengertransport.co.uk

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CHRISTMAS CHEER

Continued from Page 1 Kew Gardens station saw a 53% increase in entries and exits during the first three days of Christmas at Kew, which opened on November 15, in comparison to the same three days the previous week. TfL and Visit London have launched a new Tube map titled ‘A Christmas Too Big to Miss’, marking the locations of the best festive attractions across London this year. It gives guidance on accessibility, as well as advice on how far the attractions are from the stations. A recent TfL report showed that bus demand between January and October 2023 was 8% higher than in the same period in 2022. Mayor Sadiq Khan has meanwhile hailed his Superloop bus network, launched in July, as a “game-changer”. Two more routes were added earlier this week providing another boost for those travelling from outer London. Footfall has also risen sharply in the West End, with Shaftesbury Capital, owner of Seven Dials and Covent Garden, recently revealing footfall was up 12% year-on-year. The area, which suffered a drop in visitors in the wake of the pandemic, has said its footfall is now 16% above 2019 levels. The capital’s nightlife is also recovering, and, despite some changes in work patterns, Friday and Saturday nights remain the most popular nights of the week in central London with people travelling in for evenings out. Ridership on the Night Tube and Night Overground services shows that around 60,000 journeys take place on a Friday night between 00:30 and 04:30, and close to 70,000 journeys on a Saturday night between 00:30 and 04:30.

Andy Lord, London’s transport commissioner, said: “With London’s cultural and social calendar having truly sprung back this year, it’s set to be a Christmas you can’t miss ... Wherever you choose to go, you can rely on TfL services to help you get there and make the most of your trip, and on our up-to-date, easy-to-access information to help you enjoy all the festive fun in London.” Outside of London, the picture is more mixed. But Britain’s three largest bus groups told Passenger Transport that bus use is up 5-10% across their operations this year. Stagecoach, Britain’s biggest bus operator, has seen a further recovery in demand for its public transport services, with year-on-year growth in regional bus passenger journeys of 5.3%. First Bus saw a UK-wide year-on-year increase of over 10% in patronage in the period between April and December. A spokeswoman for Arriva commented: “We can say that bus demand ... for us is 7% higher this year than 2022. We had predicted 6% because of the government’s £2 price cap, which is clearly helping the bus industry, but we’re pleased with that 7% figure. It’s very promising.” Bus passenger journeys on National Express West Midlands buses are also around 7% higher than 2022. National Express scheduled coaches are expecting to carry close to one million people across the festive period. Around 13% more passengers are already booked, compared to the same period of 2022.

“Bus demand for us is 7% higher this year than 2022 ... It’s very promising” 15 December 2023 | 11

13/12/2023 16:59

INNOVATION & TECHNOLOGY

Google and Go-Ahead ‘set a new standard’ Industry-first feature helps Brighton bus users track spending PAYMENT

The Go-Ahead Group has teamed up with Google to introduce a new feature aimed at enhancing the customer experience for bus travel. In collaboration with Google and Go-Ahead’s payment provider Littlepay, Go-Ahead’s Brighton & Hove Buses is unveiling an industry-first initiative which will simplify the way passengers manage their mobile payments for bus journeys. The new feature, integrated with Google Wallet, will provide customers with greater visibility into their ride history and savings accrued through time-based fare caps. Kanwar Brar, Go-Ahead’s chief digital and information officer, said: “We believe this collaboration will set a new standard for the industry.”

SIGN LANGUAGE DISPLAY Screens display videos alongside latest info ACCESSIBILITY

In a UK rail industry first, London North Eastern Railway is trialling the full integration of British Sign Language across its customer information screens at Doncaster railway station. The train operator is working with Doncaster Deaf Trust and Communication Specialist College Doncaster on the project, which will see the messaging trialled throughout December 2023 with a view to expanding the initiative. 12 | 15 December 2023 PT303p12-13.indd 12

Instead of cash, customers are adopting smart cards, contactless and apps to pay for their journeys. Up to 80% of Go-Ahead’s passengers pay digitally when they board its regional buses - with an increasing number ‘tapping on’ and ‘tapping off’ when they make a journey with the benefit of flexible capping in many areas. The initial rollout of this feature is set to take place at Brighton & Hove Buses, serving as a pilot programme to refine and optimise the functionality. Following this debut, Go-Ahead aims to expand the feature to more cities across

the UK and beyond, offering passengers an unparalleled level of control and insight into their public transportation expenses. Jonathan Hill, head of transit partnerships at Google Pay, said: “Paying for transit using Google Pay is quick, easy and secure. By teaming up with Littlepay and Brighton & Hove Buses we are enabling Google Wallet users to track their spending and progress towards daily, or weekly travel caps. We want to help people feel more in control of their spending and encourage use of sustainable transport.”

KEY BENEFITS OF THE NEW FEATURE Real-time savings information: Passengers tapping to pay for a bus journey will now quickly see how much they’ve saved through time-based fare caps, demonstrating the economic benefits of using public transport. Ride history at your fingertips: Google Wallet will display comprehensive ride histories for passengers, allowing them to keep track of their bus journeys and savings. Enhanced security and convenience: The collaboration with Littlepay ensures secure and convenient payment transactions.

Messaging will be trialled throughout December at Doncaster station

URBANTHINGS AND SKEDGO TEAM UP Powerful journey planning features combined JOURNEY PLANNING

Transport technology expert UrbanThings and Mobility-asa-Service leader SkedGo have announced a strategic partnership, combining their technology platforms to deliver preference-based journey planning with a sustainability focus. The partnership will combine SkedGo’s expertise in journey planning and routing with UrbanThings’ experience in ticketing and real-time information to support operators and cities with access to a deeper level of configuration for their journey planning offerings. As well as promoting the availability of operator’s services, this will help encourage sustainable travel options with better routes, taking into account customers’ travel preferences and habits. With UrbanThings’ ongoing focus on making travel easier for customers, partnering with SkedGo will give UrbanThings a much richer set of advanced journey-planning capabilities and empower their passenger app users. Guy Sutherland, head of bids and partnerships at UrbanThings, said: “Working with SkedGo will supercharge our journey planning offering. This enhancement will allow us to provide much more sophisticated preference-based journey plans to simplify the customer experience and improve the visibility of how their preferred operators can provide a sustainable and convenient travel choice with a journey that suits them.” Joshua Biondi, business development manager Europe at SkedGo, said: “We bring our respective expertise and technology together within a seamlessly integrated solution, to create a best-in-class plan, book and pay mobility experience.” www.passengertransport.co.uk

13/12/2023 15:54

ECDP progress GOMETRO’S £9M COMPASS TRAVEL and campaign ROUND-UP

Report by Transport Focus highlights passenger priorities for communicating digital signalling DIGITAL SIGNALLING

Upgrades to enhance rail travel to and from London progressed further this month with work on the East Coast Main Line (ECML) as part of the East Coast Digital Programme (ECDP). ECDP is a landmark scheme set to introduce in cab digital signalling on the southern part of the ECML, between London King’s Cross and Grantham. Work was undertaken on December 3 to prepare and test new technology between Welwyn Garden City and Hitchin in Hertfordshire ready for digital signalling. Engineers installed new cabling, and undertook key testing, all working towards a more reliable, resilient and greener ECML. In a major step forward for ECDP, the first Great Northern passenger trains recently began using digital signalling on the Northern City Line between Finsbury Park and Moorgate in the City of London. It is expected that trains will begin using digital signalling on the main line between Welwyn and Hitchin from 2025. With ongoing work impacting on passengers, there is a need to explain the benefits of digital signalling to a wider audience. To help with that challenge, Transport Focus was commissioned to undertake customer research. Their report, Digital signalling: how to communicate the upgrade programme to rail passengers, will help to inform how ECDP is communicated in the future. Based on interviews and focus www.passengertransport.co.uk

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groups with passengers along the route, the report found that: Awareness of ECDP is low; When explained, digital can be seen as a ‘game changer’; Passengers accept that change will involve disruption, but expect the benefits to be clearly outlined, with a focus on improving punctuality and reliability; and Passenger priorities are to understand the immediate impact on journeys, and where and when the work is taking place, but they also want to know why the disruption is happening. ECDP is launching a passenger campaign aimed at highlighting the long-term benefits to punctuality and reliability that digital signalling will deliver. A new website (www. eastcoastdigitalprogramme.co.uk) has content explaining what digital signalling is and how it will benefit passengers and freight customers. It provides information on the phasing of ECDP and gives key dates on which services will be impacted in the coming months. Alex Robertson, chief executive at the independent watchdog Transport Focus, said: “Passengers understand that improvements to the railway will mean some disruption, but they need plenty of information before, during and after the works. This includes how their journeys are affected and what their travel choices are. “We are pleased to have worked with Network Rail to understand how to best communicate the East Coast digital signalling upgrade to passengers.”

Zenobe provides funding for fleet management firm

Omnibus timetable publicity solution selected

FLEET MANAGEMENT

PASSENGER INFORMATION

GoMetro, a fast-growing South African tech company that operates in the fleet management space, has announced the successful completion of a £9m Series A funding round. The round was led by new investor Zenobe and will further develop GoMetro’s fleet management platform in its key markets of the UK, EU, USA and South Africa.

Compass Travel will develop high-quality, brand-consistent bus stop timetable displays to increase patronage in East and West Sussex with Omnibus solution, OmniSTOPdesign. The displays will align with the standard set by Surrey’s roadside media - managed by Surrey County Council through Omnibus consultancy - to ensure consistency in the customer experience across all touchpoints in the independent operator’s network.

eTicket readers installed at 98 GTR stations

AUTONOMOUS BUS WINS AWARD Alexander Dennis bus wins ‘Vehicle of the Year’ AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES

ETICKET READERS AT ALL GTR GATES 1,400 readers will make travel ‘so much easier’ TICKETING

Barcode readers have now been added to every single ticket gate at managed stations on Govia Thameslink Railway’s vast network - 1,420 readers on 710 ticket gates at 98 stations. GTR customer services director Jenny Saunders said: “Getting your ticket to ride with Gatwick Express, Great Northern, Southern and Thameslink has just got so much easier.”

In a collaborative achievement, bus operator Stagecoach, bus manufacturer Alexander Dennis, and autonomous system provider Fusion Processing clinched the prestigious ‘Vehicle of the Year’ award at last month’s inaugural Self-Driving Industry Awards at Turner Contemporary, Margate. The award-winning bus is a standard Alexander Dennis single-deck vehicle used on the pioneering CAVForth service.

Self-Driving Industry Awards

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13/12/2023 15:55

COMMENT

JASON PRINCE

We need one last Christmas cracker

Capital investment in transport across English cities is welcome, but we must not forget London. Its success must be maintained I am writing this column after our work Christmas party, which was held in Manchester. Unfortunately, the Urban Transport Group team didn’t get invited to the Chanel Metiers d’Art that was held in the city’s trendy Northern Quarter on the same evening (if you have no idea what that is, give it a Google). Instead, I brought the team to South Manchester, to sample the sights and sounds of Stretford and Chorlton, areas of Greater Manchester that have benefited hugely from transport investment over the past few decades. I recently moved to Stretford, a town that is within touching distance of arguably the greatest football team on Earth - Manchester United - and an area that is sandwiched between the heart of the city centre (which is merely a few tram stops away) and the banks of the River Mersey and the Chorlton Nature Reserve to the south. As a lad from Tameside, a borough towards the east of Greater Manchester, South Manchester is very different. Firstly, it is less hilly - great if you love cycling and hate hills. Secondly, it has the Metrolink (part of the newly launched Bee Network), the UK’s largest and most successful light rail system in the UK. Now, that isn’t to say that areas like Tameside and other boroughs are not well connected – they are. There are relatively good rail and bus connections that feed into the city but also into local towns and villages that pepper the outer boroughs of Greater Manchester. 14 | 15 December 2023 PT303p14-15.indd 14

What is visibly different, however, is the transformational impact of having targeted investment in public transport that gives people confidence to get out of their cars and off the roads for the bulk of their regular journeys. For those who are not familiar with iconic Metrolink, it started running on lines in Greater Manchester during the early 90’s and has expanded since then, with routes reaching seven of the ten boroughs of Greater Manchester. Two things were vitally important

“There was no mention whatsoever regarding funding for our capital” Transport in London is recovering

to get the project off the ground: first, a local vision and second, money. On the first, Greater Manchester had been exploring ideas for a rapid transport system for a while, with various iterations of what could be achievable. However, the local passenger transport executive settled on the idea of existing heavy rail lines from Bury to Manchester Victoria as well as the line from Cornbrook Junction to Altrincham to be converted to support light rail Metrolink was born. The second requirement was money, and following a funding agreement with the Treasury, Metrolink started service in 1992. Since then, a variety of evidence, the most recent being CEPA Economic Matters’ Transformational impacts of transport investment (from April this year), which suggested that Metrolink has greatly improved public transport across the city region and has been, well, “transformational” for some of the areas along the route. Evidence also suggests that there has been a positive net impact on house prices. So, why is this important? This, and other case studies cited in the CEPA report, clearly demonstrate the economic and broader regeneration benefits of capital investment in our public transport network. Although the CEPA report does not go into detail about broader social value outputs, it does show that transport investment can afford us local economic returns. It is in this context that we should also reflect on the past few months and the early ‘Christmas presents’ that the government has bestowed on our city regions. Following on from Network North and the King’s Speech, we have had the final instalment - the Autumn Statement, an event which always causes a flurry of activity in city region transport authorities across the country. This year, a few early Christmas gifts were confirmed in Network North, most notably the uplift to City Region Sustainable Transport Settlements (CRSTS) and more money for potholes! The Autumn Statement also confirmed a new ‘Level 4’ devolution framework which included a mix of warm words and further commitments to support progress on deeper devolution. And the Christmas tree topper was the Memorandum of Understanding between government, www.passengertransport.co.uk

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“London could see a reverse of decades of hard work to get people onto public transport” Greater Manchester, and the West Midlands, outlining the approach to the single funding settlements which will be implemented at the next Spending Review. However, there were two important things missing from the statement. Firstly, we still lack long-term clarity over revenue support beyond the next couple of years. This is a priority that needs to be sorted. Secondly, there was no mention whatsoever regarding funding for our capital city, and UTG member, Transport for London. We all know how hugely important London is to the UK economy and as many city region mayors will say, the aspiration for their local areas is a London-style transport system, delivered through a “London-style” funding deal. As someone who lived in the capital for nearly five years in the late 90’s and early 00’s and has always had a job linked to London since then, I can see why we all aspire to a ‘turn up and go’, ‘tap on tap off’, ‘simple, capped pay as you go’ system that is reliable, interconnected, with a single, identifiable brand. And contrary to what you may read in some of the press, transport in London is recovering. Passenger numbers have recovered to just shy of 90% of pre-pandemic ridership, with weekend travel regularly above 2019 levels. Demand for public transport has increased substantially in 2022/23 with ridership 31% higher than in 2021/22. In 2023/24, year on year growth is forecast to be 7%. Remarkably, TfL is on track to achieve an operating surplus in 2023/24, with revenues covering the costs of operating and maintaining the existing transport network. When it comes to capital spending, using money generated across its operations to reinvest into the network matched with other funding, TfL can cover over 75% of its capital expenditure requirements for the next financial year. Overall, things are looking bright! However, the absence of a deal for next year could potentially mean delaying the replacement of the oldest fleet of trains in the UK - the Bakerloo Line trains - by years, and a setback to service improvements on the Piccadilly Line, which contributes to over 10% of London Underground’s overall ridership. In turn, a lack of government support and consequent weakening of the transport offer in London would undermine investors’ confidence in the city, taking a step backwards www.passengertransport.co.uk

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50 year old Bakerloo line trains being maintained

in our economic recovery. This would have a national impact in terms of the Gross Value Added to the economy. We mustn’t lose the opportunity to continue to deliver a more efficient, reliable and sustainable public transport network which will attract people, businesses and investment to the capital, and bring benefits for the whole country. At the beginning of this piece, I spoke about the transformational impact of transport investment in Greater Manchester. A clear vision supported by a funding partnership with government has made a huge impact in the city region and across the North, with benefits being felt decades later. This capital investment in Metrolink years ago, and the new CRSTS funds more recently, will continue to help areas like Greater Manchester reach their ambition of a fully integrated London-style public transport system that can support the economy, bring people to public transport, and help improve revenues. However, London - it can be argued - has been a real trailblazer for public transport in the UK for many years, with investment in tube lines and more recently the Elizabeth Line having transformational impacts on the communities they serve and the local economy. It is a model that other areas aspire to replicate to support local growth and maximise the benefits of agglomeration. That’s why the phrase “London-style” funding deal has been so widely used: the ability to think long-term and plan investment across multiple

years is what has enabled TfL to succeed. It’s great that this need has been recognised in the CRSTS model for other major cities. But we are now at risk of this work being undone in the very place it started. London, without a long-term, multi-year capital funding settlement of its own, could see a reverse of decades of hard work to get people onto public transport. It is important at this point to give praise where it is due - in this case to central government. Although it is not always an easy process, many across the transport sector, in and out of London, would agree that the level of pragmatism to work together for the betterment of public transport is stronger than ever. So, as we approach the festive break, let’s hope that there is one more Christmas cracker that will make sure all our city regions are given the support they need to start the New Year on a positive footing. Merry Christmas one and all.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Jason Prince became director of the Urban Transport Group, the UK’s network of city region transport authorities, in July 2023. He was previously head of public affairs for the Greater Manchester Combined Authority, a position he held for over three years, and prior to that, he worked for Transport for Greater Manchester

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COMMENT

ALEX WARNER

A quarter century of caring for customers For almost 25 years Anthony Smith has represented transport users. He’s about to move on and leaves behind a strong legacy The internet was just a novelty, text messaging was starting to replace pagers, compact disc players were in their pomp, Connex ran two rail franchises, Manchester United were unstoppable, Tony Blair was prime minister and ‘When the Going gets Tough’ by Boyzone topped the charts, when Anthony Smith, aged 39, first walked through the doors at the Central Regional Users Consultative Committee (CRUCC) on Monday, March 15, 1999. He was the new chief executive and, by his own admission, he knew hardly anything about public transport. It was in a huff at not getting the head of legal role at Which? magazine, where he had spent five happy years that led Smith to take on a job regulating premium rate phone lines, many of which were of a highly salubrious nature. And then he saw an advert for the chief executive at the CRUCC in The Sunday Times. Having qualified as a solicitor, but not wanting to follow a profession in this field, he had the right credentials for the top job at the organisation that ultimately became known as Transport Focus. 24 ¾ years later and Anthony is preparing for his last week at Transport Focus, I’ll be honest, even though he has this avuncular looking beard and more of a professor look about him, eternally posh-speaking Smith (he was brought up in Sevenoaks Weald), still looks like the work experience boy that I thought he was when he turned up at a meeting in which I was present at the Strategic Rail Authority a few 16 | 15 December 2023 PT303p16-19.indd 16

months into his job. The going might have got tough having to challenge a litany of customer service farces by the transport sector over the years, but he’s still got those customary youthful good looks and sense of wide-eyed energy and excitement as he moves onto pastures new. I caught up with Anthony, a couple of weeks ago and learned that he didn’t think he’d actually stay long at Transport Focus but the ‘addictive’ nature of the industry was very seductive indeed. “It matters to people, and the country,” he tells me. “It’s important.” For Anthony, transport is a “fascinating blend” of government, local authorities and the private sector, “but it’s all about people”. Back in 1999, CRUCC only worked in rail, but the organisation added bus and coach to its portfolio in 2009/10 and then, in 2015, national highways joined the family. With his trademark ‘less is more’ brevity, Smith sums up nearly a quarter of a decade of work in one paragraph: “That was crucial, as we became genuinely multi modal . We got out of the public transport ghetto because people travel the way they need to travel. So getting into roads was

“You could shout and get headlines every other day, but you wouldn’t have a relationship”

really important for the organisation. We then got through Covid, and the last thing was ticket office closures. All this kept me interested, intrigued and there’s great people here. It feels like leaving a family and they really do care.” Anthony asserts that the industry is more customer focused now. There was much less talk about customers in the early days. He explains: “Society has become more customer centric and it has percolated into transport, helped by franchising incentivising folk to get happy customers in rail, and buses being more naturally focused on customers because they are more like a business ... Meanwhile, roads are a monopoly provider, crucial to have a customer outlook otherwise it becomes an engineering guerrilla producing things customer doesn’t want.” All this is well and good, but I ask if we’re living in a more customer-focused sector, then how did the idiocy of the abolition of the one day travelcard and ticket office closures come about? Smith believes that the former was a result of devolution providing odd side effects, such as a fractious relationship between mayor and the Department for Transport, where a decision in one place affects a broader area. But, as we found with the subsequent uprising, consumer pressure works still even today. Despite this, though, I express my frustration with Transport Focus for not instigating riots with every annual fares hike. Smith, far more mature than I, explains: “There’s always been a creative tension because we are sponsored by the DfT and we are an arm’s length body of government, but it has always felt independent and department never told us what to do. But there is subtle tension and we are funded by taxpayers, so there is a degree of responsibility that comes with that because the people you are criticising, the next day you have to sit down and talk to them about how you improve things in the future. “You could shout and get headlines every other day, but you wouldn’t have a relationship with the industry and a government that think you are useful. They’ll stop listening. The quality of that relationship needs constant curating and tending. You have to earn respect, keep it, and look out for it every day.” Importantly, he adds: “You spot good practice, there’s tons out there, and pointing that out is as important as pointing out weaknesses”. www.passengertransport.co.uk

13/12/2023 16:11

“If you go for cost reduction, you go for managed decline. You’ve got to go for growth”Anthony Smith Anthony Smith received the ‘Lifetime Contribution to Transport’ award at this year’s National Transport Awards

All this conciliatory, sensible stuff doesn’t mean he doesn’t think the current fares situation is nonsense. Smith coined the headline years ago “eye watering fares rises” and he says that fares have long passed this point and remain “really worrying”. He also first used the header “rich man’s railway”. “Transport is meant to be available to all,” Anthony says. “When you look at the landscape of railway, the private sector has got to be involved. We have got to drive costs down and drive customer focus up. The more open access the better. The current state of rail costs a lot of money and its ability to change and improve customer focus is not on an even keel. If you go for cost reduction, you go for managed decline. You’ve got to go for growth. Any seat for a £1 is good as costs are fixed. An empty seat is an offence. Ryanair wouldn’t do that. We’ve got to get that mentality into the system because if we just go for cost reduction, we’re doomed.” Apart from thwarting the scandalous ticket office closure plot, Smith’s second finest achievement, in my view, was the National Passenger Rail Survey - the results of which take pride of place on my CV. www.passengertransport.co.uk

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“NRPS has been at the core of our business model,” he says. “It’s simple, you go out and talk to people and ask what they think of their last journey, so it’s current, and then you print a league table. Whatever people say about league tables, they are concerned about it. Motorway services fight tooth and nail not to be bottom and they invest to get up the league table. You talk to customers, they give views, you invest to get better.” He adds: “One of my great regrets in life was post-Covid we didn’t re-start NRPS,” Anthony admits. “An Achilles heel post-Covid was that we did not have a public measure. We still get people asking about NRPS.” There will be a successor ‘Customer Experience Survey’ which the DfT is funding. The department will procure it and then hand it over to GBR and everyone will have access to it. Transport Focus has been heavily involved in developing and piloting the new survey alongside its own regular Omnibus survey - the only current published passenger satisfaction data. The Bus Passenger Survey has been replaced with ‘Your Bus Journey’ and full results will be

published next year. This is a key part of BSIP/ Enhanced Partnership programme in England, providing the government with some sense of what they are getting back for their investment. “The benefit of Transport Focus has been that it does a lot of work helping the industry determine what to buy going forward,” says Anthony. “You spend time helping those with power to buy the right thing for customers.” I wonder whether Smith is aware that he has created legendary status and become Mr Customer. Though he is modest and says he hasn’t, he gives an impressive insight into the importance of a strong leadership style. “Whenever you are leading an organisation, it has to appear you are utterly crucial to the success of the organisation, figurehead, energetic, talk to people, the be all and end all,” he says, “but underneath the organisation has a strong DNA and when I leave it will continue.” Smith created an impression of being indispensable despite not really knowing much about transport when he arrived in 1999. “I was interested in trains because that’s what my Dad was,” he says, “I knew I’d end up in transport at some point.” 15 December 2023 | 17

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COMMENT

“We always made sure we base our stuff on evidence, not anecdote”Anthony Smith

But Smith is not a hardcore transport nut. Modern traction is his gig, steam “does nothing for me” and he forcefully tells me that he has “absolutely zero interest in model railways”. “When I arrived [at CRUCC] I just asked who the people were who were making noise and I went round and spoke to them,” Anthony recalls. “So I spoke to Stephen Joseph, David Begg, to everybody I could find who was a noisemaker, and that’s how you get intelligence, gossip and that’s how you know what’s going on, constant feedback coming through.” I feel quite proud to be a noisemaker then as Smithy quite a few times invited me to his perpetually moving office, to chew the fat. He’d always sit and listen with that pontificating face he pulls, whilst I gossiped, berated and dreamt up some whacky innovation that he would politely endorse. He continues: “I go and get to know journalists. Don’t be frightened of them because they are really important in terms of you getting your message out ... Get yourself to be the first person they’ll ring up. It felt instinctive but I also enjoyed it.” I ask whether he ever got into trouble? I know he’s a smooth talker, but it’s impossible in an industry that is quite often prickly and defensive not to wind someone up. “Well, no,” he responds. “We’ve had to keep a close eye on the department and various secretaries of state ... When you publish stuff, they don’t like, they get on the phone. We always made sure we base our stuff on evidence, not anecdote. We’ve prided ourselves on the quality of the insight. They may question the interpretation but the core insight is always good quality and professional, and that gives you a tremendous shield. “What we do is good for the industry, but to earn trust you have to be responsible, reasonable, proportionate in what you do.” Smith is a consummate professional. He’s one of the most polished smoothies I’ve come across, but not in a boring, anodyne corporate clone way. He manages to get his point across with animation, but carefully worded. In late March this year, he lit up a conference I was hosting in Birmingham, attended by both frontline staff and industry bigwigs, with a speech so eloquent around customer service that everyone was talking about it in the pub afterwards. He did it with one crib-card in his hand and it was all on the hoof.

He’s also always been known for his succinctness. Emails with literally one sentence that tell the tale, and his mantra is that if you can’t do a presentation on one slide then it’s not worth doing. So it’s a surprise that towards the end of our chinwag he can’t stop reiterating that reliability is the only thing that really matters. “Look, reliability is really boring,” he says. “Everything I’ve learned points to the need to stick to timetables. If you can deliver that you can deliver 90% of what customers want, and if you do that you gain the trust of your customers and they’ll forgive you for a lot. “The way you handle disruption is key. Like food in a restaurant, if the food isn’t good you worry about a whole load of other things. You cannot give enough attention to reliability and delivering that basic promise. That’s what people are buying when they buy a ticket ... If you don’t get that right, you’re going uphill. “A clean, new electric train that’s late is a late train and this is more important to people than the green agenda. They’d rather swap an old diesel for an electric if it is reliable. If it is reliable, they’ll tell other people.” Smith is so entwined and embedded in the customer cause that’s it’s hard to think he has a life outside of transport, but he does. Living in Wandsworth, he hangs around Plough Lane watching AFC Wimbledon and is also a fellow regular at Crystal Palace FC. He loves military history (“I could give you a really good tour of the Battle of Waterloo”) and he’s a big music man. He particularly loves tribute bands (“they’re often better than the real thing!”). A Neil Young tribute band from Belgium is his favourite (“I mean, how completely weird is that Alex?”), and he can’t wait to go to Abba Voyage next year. A walk and pint are other favourite pastimes but he’s not looking to scale back work too much - he’s chair of the Heathrow Area Transport Forum, which he excitedly explains is about making transport more sustainable and less polluted, and keeping customer experience good. “The degree of cooperation that gets the plane airborne is incredible,” he remarks. The previous day he was at a meeting at Hounslow Town Hall and he describes looking out onto the flight path, with child-like awe and wonder. For sure, there will be countless folk tapping up Anthony, the definitive customer service guru, for advice and support, including myself. He’s a good bloke too and I say this not just

18 | 15 December 2023 PT303p16-19.indd 18

because he’s always been on our side in fighting for the rights of customers. I’ve received a few WhatsApp messages of late from people in his team, unprompted comments that aren’t platitudes but deeply affectionate, sincere and admiring remarks, the kind you tend to say about a really close friend or family member, not some bloke you’ve worked for. My consultancy recently commissioned a high-brow insight programme, so impressive it could have been commissioned by Smith’s team. It consisted of me saying the words ‘Transport Focus’ to a sample size of 25 people, spanning the full demographic spectrum of UK society. Within five seconds, 96% of respondents, shouted out the name “Anthony Smith”, such is the extent to which he is instinctively synonymous with the organisation. The responses of the other 4% consisted of “complaints”, “customer”, “consumer” and “trains”. It feels unique for the chief executive of a public sector consumer body to be as revered, renowned and in folklore as Anthony Smith. I can’t think of it occurring before in transport history, nor in other sectors, and he’s up there with those iconic industry names who have been doing more glamorous stuff, such as founding or running transport organisations household names, such as Giles Fearnley, Moir Lockhead, Bob Reid, Chris Green, Adrian Shooter, Peter Hendy, Brian Souter and so on. He hands the baton onto his successor, Alex Robertson, who, as Anthony concurs, is a “great appointment and has a fabulous CV”. Transport Focus is an organisation that has stood the test of time, through ebbs and flows and threats within the industry, but it is still alive, vibrant and has a great future. For this, customers and the sector owe him a huge debt of gratitude. To say Smith has left a legacy would be an understatement.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Alex Warner has over 30 years’ experience in the transport sector, having held senior roles on a multi-modal basis across the sector. He is co-founder of recruitment business Lost Group and transport consultancy AJW Experience Group (which includes Great Scenic Journeys). He is also chair of West Midlands Grand Rail Collaboration and chair of Surrey FA.

www.passengertransport.co.uk

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13/12/2023 16:12

COMMENT

NICK RICHARDSON

The silent war on the bus passenger

A new report quantifies the decline in bus services in England and Wales. Ultimately decline will continue unless funding increases A report by the University of Leeds for Friends of the Earth (FoE) has applied the term ‘silent war’ to bus users in the face of drastic reductions to services. The figures are alarming: outside London, 80 local authority areas have experienced declines of 60%. Having investigated timetables across England and Wales since 2008, FoE found that services had reduced by 48% in urban areas and 52% in rural areas.

Significant decline The headline figures are bad enough but some areas - Hart (Hampshire), Fenland (Cambridgeshire) and Broxtowe (Nottinghamshire) - had seen a decline of over 80%. The Guardian reported this in relation to parliamentary constituencies with North East Hampshire having an 82% decline, Bridgwater (Somerset) 81% and Staffordshire Moorland and Stoke-on-Trent North both 78%. Hart in North East Hampshire has the highest car ownership rates in the country so it doesn’t come as a big surprise that few people use buses; it is still alarming though for the unfortunate minority that don’t have a car although the other high scoring areas are certainly not as over-endowed with cars as Hart. On the basis of 100 constituencies with the greatest decline, 82 are held by a Conservative MP. In response to this alarming picture, FoE has called for a ‘public transport renaissance’ and to reinstate bus services that have been lost. 20 | 15 December 2023 PT303p20-21.indd 20

However, all this simplifies a complex situation. The decline in bus services is partly attributable to declining numbers of users in many places, usually not un-related to car ownership, the classic chicken and egg situation. If there are no buses, you use a car more but if you have a car, you are less likely to use buses. As we know from decades of experience, bus use in suburbs and rural contexts generally goes hand-in-hand with car use and this car-dependency also affects housing, employment and a host of other socioeconomic factors. While Covid-19 decimated demand, many areas are aspiring to return to pre-pandemic levels of patronage but they usually fall short of previous levels of use. The sentiment of the national bus strategy for England is that improving bus services will make them more attractive and therefore more people will use them. This is rather binary because it addresses only part of the multi-function equation that is bus demand. Pronouncements from the current government sum it up by perpetuating cardependency and trying to avoid anything that may undermine it. Witness the endorsements by ministers for anyone opposed to Low

“What it all boils down to is the inconvenient truth that car use is out of control”

Emission Zones (promoting healthy communities), low traffic neighbourhoods (promoting safety and wellbeing), parking regulation and similar and it is clear why more of the same is detrimental to bus use. Condoning vandalism such as damaging low emission and speed cameras is appalling but apparently acceptable. Improving bus services is obviously a good thing to do, at least it is obvious to those who use them and provide them but sadly many people simply don’t see it at all. There is likely to be a difficulty in that government has committed some decent sums of money to support bus services in troubled times so DfT will want to see a return on its investment. The £2 fare cap initiative appears to have helped to some extent but there is a great deal more that needs to be done if there is to be a shift towards bus use i.e. away from car use. It could be argued that now is not the best time for a fare cap given that not all services are as good as they should be as a result of driver shortages and other ongoing problems including traffic congestion. A bad or even indifferent user experience now could simply entrench opinion in favour of not using buses. However, the hope is that anyone tempted to try the bus might actually discover that it isn’t bad after all and in many cases is preferable to car use. Moreover, in places where continuing effort is being made to improve and promote bus services, growth in demand can be achieved. The point is that expecting people to give bus services a go isn’t going to make a lot of difference while their option of car use exists. It’s interesting how good news doesn’t travel so that people who benefit from quieter streets and less pollution are dismissed in favour of conspiracists. My local MP, Penny Mordaunt, dismissed the Wales 20mph initiative as ‘insanity’ even though in her constituency, 20mph is widespread. Perhaps she will stand up and tell her constituents that road safety doesn’t matter. The outrage against the Welsh Government has been sustained because people hate the idea of taking a couple of minutes longer to drive anywhere. They seem to think that roads were made for them and some even think it applies to all roads in Wales. There are inevitably problems with some roads being included when perhaps they should not and one bus operator has pointed out that emissions equipment fitted to EuroVI buses www.passengertransport.co.uk

13/12/2023 17:24

IN ASSOCIATION WITH: www.ciltuk.org.uk Tel: 01536 740100 @ciltuk

To lure car users to buses, we need improved bus services coupled with a stronger focus on bus priority and potential restrictions on car use

doesn’t work at low speeds. In many places, buses should ideally go faster because bus journey times are generally not competitive with car journeys but it isn’t possible to have two speed limits for the same stretch of road.

Symptoms and causes What it all boils down to is the inconvenient truth that car use is out of control and currently is worse than ever with many locations having more traffic than they did pre-pandemic. Bus services will never have an advantage over car use unless measures are taken to deal with the sources of demand for travel accompanied by measures that make car use less attractive. The Welsh outrage grows with the suggestion that low emission zones should be introduced as well as the 20mph limit, clearly the end of humanity as some would have you believe. Liberty and democracy embrace a right not to die as a result of poor air quality generated by car traffic or to avoid getting run down by speeding vehicles and some relatively gentle constraints are not the end of the world. www.passengertransport.co.uk

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Attracting car users to buses will only be achieved through a combination of better bus services and significantly more emphasis on priority for buses plus some restrictions on car use be it fiscal and/or physical measures. Until decision-makers appreciate this, the current problems will perpetuate because it isn’t possible to keep everyone happy all the time. Interwoven with this and the cause of much of the decline is the funding position facing many bus operators. Costs continue to increase with wage rates in particular rising to recruit and retain staff with the result that the free market simply doesn’t function anymore because costs will always exceed revenue. The diminishing financial circles inevitably result in service cuts unless there is some form of support which won’t come from beleaguered local authorities. If this becomes the norm, then operators will, in effect, become puppets to the state. Franchising of services is an expression of this control but at a regional or sub-regional level rather than a national one. It defends against service losses but someone has to pay. Early experience of

franchising in Greater Manchester suggests that more demand can be generated with coordination and direct control but is reliant on sufficient revenue being sustained. Early evidence is encouraging and it is good to see ‘Bee Network’ buses going about their business. However, leaving services to cover their individual costs is a bleak prospect and despite the difficulties created by service withdrawals, decline will continue unless the funding position changes. There is a stark contrast between bus services in urban areas with funding and those elsewhere that have precarious prospects and little hope of attracting new users.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Nick Richardson is technical director at transport consultancy WSP and chair of CILT’s Bus and Coach Policy Group and is a former chair of the Transport Planning Society. In addition, he has held a PCV licence for over 36 years.

15 December 2023 | 21

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SPECIAL REPORT FIRST BUS

First Bus is on its way to achieving its goal of operating a zero-emission bus fleet by 2035

Reflecting on a year of growth First Bus has set the groundwork to enter 2024 with strong momentum, and continued investment At First Bus, we’re on a mission to get more people to use the bus - so unsurprisingly this has been the driving force across the Janette Bell business throughout 2023. First Bus We take pride in delivering vital links and an essential service in the communities we serve across the UK and Ireland each day. We have therefore continued to invest in our people, our services and state-of-the-art technology to consistently improve our customers’ experiences. We have made significant strides in upholding our commitment to sustainability. We are on our way to achieving our goal of operating a zero-emission bus fleet by 2035. We expect around 15% of our fleet to be zero-emission by March 2024. 22 | 15 December 2023 PT303p22-23.indd 22

In 2023, we continued to make progress diversifying our business. Talent attraction incentives and campaigns are underway to implement change and continue our aim of creating an environment where everyone can feel welcome, be their true selves and succeed together. First Bus has set the groundwork this year to take us into 2024 with strong momentum. We will continue to make strategic and technological investments, pushing forward the electrification of our bus fleet, and building an inclusive workforce.

“We expect around 15% of our fleet to be zeroemission by March 2024”

Strategic investments This year, we continued to build on our data-led commercial strategy to enhance our customer experience. In April, we became the first major UK bus operator to install Tap On, Tap Off ticketing technology across our entire fleet of over 4,000 buses. We see this technology as the first step in next-generation ticketing, allowing us to improve our understanding of customers’ travel habits and demand for services. It allows us to make data-led decisions based on our customers’ needs and allows us to match resource and services to demand more easily. Our trailblazing partnership with technology start-up Prospective.io also made great strides, enabling us to start synchronising our operations using artificial intelligence (AI). The integration of this software has Brought to you by Passenger Transport

13/12/2023 16:17

“It is simple; to grow our business we need to attract and retain more people” helped us improve the reliability of our timetables, using AI to predict traffic conditions and peak running times to help ensure services run on time. The software creates and adjusts full timetables and schedules buses in minutes, a process that would typically take days or even weeks to complete. This means local teams can be more agile with frequent, subtle changes to ensure timetables remain accurate throughout the year. Results have shown that customers are benefiting from improved service quality, with trial routes seeing a 20% increase in punctuality. By the end of 2024, we hope to increase this by implementing the software changes across our networks in the UK.

Working with DPD

Sustainablity is a major driving force

Committed to sustainability Alongside our technological improvements, our commitment to sustainability has continued to be a major driving force for us this year. We invested around £100m across the UK to facilitate our move towards net zero, which included new Electric Vehicles (EVs) and the relevant charging infrastructure. This year our plans include four all EV depots which is an important milestone for our decarbonisation programme, and these will be fully operational by March 2024. The majority of our electric buses are fast charging and can travel up to 150 miles on a single charge, making them both sustainable and an excellent vehicle for intra-urban travel. Each bus also saves around 60 tonnes of carbon emissions a year. With charging infrastructure now installed at nine of our depots across the UK, and with more to follow, we have actively sought ways to partner with local businesses to aid them in their own decarbonisation journey. For example, DPD now has access to our Caledonia and Leicester depots, which have state-of-the-art, rapid charging points to charge their electric vehicles in around 45 minutes. This enables them to travel a greater distance while making deliveries - while reducing their impact on the environment. This initiative maximises the green potential of our charging hubs - giving back to local businesses and the community while our vehicles are on the road serving our customers. We have also heavily invested in solar panels to reduce our reliance on the local grid. At our www.passengertransport.co.uk

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Leicester depot, for example, we have installed over 400 solar panels - which is expected to generate around 55% of the building’s electricity requirements. This renewable energy can then be used to power lighting, heating, office equipment and the engineering bays. Over the 25-year lifetime of the panels, we expect to save the equivalent of almost 400 tonnes of CO2.

An inclusive workforce Another significant focus for us in 2023 has been ensuring that we continue to grow an inclusive workforce. We employ over 12,800 people across the UK and Ireland, so it is important that everyone feels fully engaged and part of First Bus’ transformation journey as we continue to put our colleagues and customers at the heart of all we do. It is simple; to grow our business we need to attract and retain more people. We want to make our jobs accessible to as wide a demographic as possible and ensure they are in keeping with the demands of modern-day working life. To achieve this, we are working hard to change our rosters and how we structure things so we can create more flexible working opportunities. We have also launched our Reverse Mentoring Programme, which flips the traditional set-up on its head and sees young women mentoring more senior males. Similarly, we have our Female Intentional Allyship

Programme, which follows the more traditional mentoring set-up but aims to develop our female colleagues’ skills and confidence. As we continue to diversify our workforce, new talent attraction initiatives have been introduced to appeal to people that represent the communities we serve. We know as an industry there is a long way to go, but we are working hard to rise to the challenge and ensure First Bus is at the forefront of this journey. We want to make a career in the bus industry appeal to as wide an audience as is possible. We have also stepped-up apprenticeship opportunities for engineers, seeking to take on 50-60 young people every year. Our aim is to train the next generation and furnish them with the skills needed to become experts in the new world of zero-emission bus technology. As part of this, we launched an industryleading partnership with Reaseheath College that gives us a world class programme to help us maximise learning and re-create depot environments for our apprentices to learn in. We are about to extend that into a new driver apprenticeship scheme to attract new and under-represented demographics into a career in bus.

Looking ahead to 2024 As we move into 2024, we know that to deliver on our mission of getting more people on the bus, we must continue to evolve and innovate our approach with the customer and our people front of mind. At the same time, we’re working towards our goal of a zero-emission bus fleet by 2035, and complete net zero emissions by 2050. It is also important to continue transforming our business for our colleagues. We want First Bus to become an even better place to work - a place where our people feel like they are making a difference and are proud to serve their local community - together we can achieve this and much more.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Janette Bell became managing director of First Bus in October 2020. First Bus is one of Britain’s largest bus companies with around a fifth of bus services outside London, and a fleet of more than 5,000 buses. Janette was previously chief executive Officer of P&O Ferries.

15 December 2023 | 23

13/12/2023 16:17

COMMENT

WANT TO KNOW MORE? Visit Portland’s fuel forum page: portland-analytics.co.uk/fuel-forum

OIL MARKET REPORT

PORTLAND FUEL ANALYTICS - DECEMBER 2023

Why Grangemouth is unlikely to close

Last month’s announcement was puzzling, given relatively high margins for refineries - and it has strategic implications for the UK Last month’s announcement by Petroineos to close their Grangemouth oil refinery in 2025 not only took the James Spencer industry by surprise, but it Portland simultaneously blindsided both the UK and Scottish governments. The closure of a core industrial asset and the country’s only North Sea fed refinery is indeed big news, but it is also a commercially surprising decision. With refinery margins currently at unprecedented highs and with most oil majors clamouring to increase - not close down - their refining capacity, the decision is not an easy one to understand. Grangemouth is owned as a 50/50 Joint Venture between the Chemicals company Ineos (owned by Britain’s richest man and new Man Utd shareholder, Jim Ratcliffe) and the state-owned Chinese oil company, PetroChina. The official closure announcement cited the infeasibility of continued operations at Grangemouth due to the pressures of refining over-capacity in North-West Europe coupled with the future decline in demand for road fuels (due to vehicle electrification). Neither of these reasons entirely stacks up. It is definitely true to say that in recent times, there has been refining over-capacity in Europe, but if that was the case today, why would margins now be at record highs? Moreover, whilst long-term demand decline for road fuels is inevitable, the tail on this one will be a long one. 24 | 15 December 2023 PT303p24-25.indd 24

Built in 1924 by Scottish Oils (a pre-cursor company to what became BP), Grangemouth has long been one of the UK’s core oil processing plants. Up until 1975, crude oil from the Middle East was imported by ship, but the discovery of North Sea Oil brought about the commissioning of the 250-mile long Forties pipeline, which brought North Sea oil direct to the refinery. In the early days of operations, pipeline supply offered Grangemouth a distinct advantage over other UK refineries. Fast forward 50 years though and these advantages have diminished, In fact, the over reliance on North Sea crude has limited the ability of the refinery to process lower quality, non-North Sea crudes, which cost less. In the face of increased public opposition to North Sea oil, legislative changes and oil field maturity, why would you want a refinery in Grangemouth, when there may be no more North Sea oil in the next 10-20 years? In this light, it would seem reasonable for the refinery to start the process of diversifying its facilities, but this still isn’t the same as closing manufacturing down entirely. So what other factors might be at play? Well first, Grangemouth has traditionally had a strongly unionised and occasionally militant workforce.

“Is it possible that the announcement is part of a political game of poker?”

This is something that has personally agitated Jim Ratcliffe for some time and on two separate previous occasions (in 2013 and 2018), the owner of Ineos has publicly threatened to shut Grangemouth down, unless the unions accepted management working proposals. Partly as a result of this confrontational behaviour, the site has thus often found itself squaring up to a devolved government in Edinburgh, that has at times handled the relationship in a frankly cack-handed manner. The refinery has been consistently demonised for its high carbon legacy, whilst at the same time, constantly shifting environmental targets have deeply frustrated the Chinese JV partners. Is it possible then that the closure announcement is part of a political game of poker aimed at the unions (to change working practices), the Scottish Government (to backoff!) and the UK Government (to ensure North Sea Oil licences are granted)? When Portland started in the oil industry in the early 1990s the UK had 12 refineries - now there are six. Whilst consecutive UK governments have largely taken a laissez-faire position on these closures, the removal of Grangemouth might generate a different reaction. Unofficially, there is a blueprint for UK refining that focuses on basic geographic coverage, whereby core refining facilities in the North (Grangemouth), the East (Humber), the South (Fawley) and the West (Pembroke) provide sufficient coverage. But take out a core asset, particularly one so wedded to the domestic market (60% of Grangemouth production is for UK consumption) and that is an altogether different story. It would therefore be a surprise if the proposed closure of Grangemouth was not causing significant concern at the newly created Department for Energy Security and Net Zero. On that basis, we see a full closure of the refinery as unlikely. Next door is the Grangemouth petrochemical site, which is wholly owned by Ineos and, notably, there has been no suggestion that this plant will close. And if PetroIneos really is serious about closing, then do not be surprised if the UK or Scottish Government steps in to keep the place running. The refinery itself has been under state control several times in the past and by 2025, we will almost certainly have a new government in place, who may take a very different view on the nationalisation of core industries… www.passengertransport.co.uk

13/12/2023 16:19

“Our system of government in the UK is, to my mind, open to question”

COMMENT

GREAT MINSTER GRUMBLES

Goodbye 2023, or is it good riddance?

Our Whitehall insider imagines what’s going on inside the minds of the mandarins at Great Minster House, home of the DfT Goodbye 2023! I’m tempted to say “good riddance”! 2023 hasn’t been the greatest year for us here in Great Minister House. Let’s reflect on a few things. First, HS2. Not the best example of a policy decision that was universally welcomed - not that it was ever going to be. But the communication around the announcement left quite a lot to be desired, and the alternative investment proposals to sweeten the pill, as set out in Network North: Transforming Britain’s Transport were a disaster, given that within seconds of publication some quite large holes in the proposals rapidly appeared, with eagle-eyed commentators spotting many a problem. And, of course, the core elements of our rail reforms have hit the buffers because ministers no longer want to proceed with legislative proposals to set up Great British Railways, with our secretary of state, Mark Harper, giving perhaps one of the most disingenuous explanations for a policy to the Transport Select Committee in living memory. On the buses, we have fared a little better because we have at least continued to throw a lifeline to the industry with ongoing financial support to avoid potentially significant levels of service cuts. But, as I have repeatedly said, if you compare the industry today to the aspirations we set in the National Bus Strategy, then you can only conclude that our policy aspirations have failed. But grumble as I might about our failures, I have to ask a simple question: who’s to blame? www.passengertransport.co.uk

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Might I suggest that it isn’t us poor saps here in Great Minster House. The reality is that our hands are tied by a combination of No 10 and the Treasury. “It was ever thus” I hear you all say, so my point is hardly new or surprising. Quite. But it is a point worth repeating as for all the stick we may get for what I might, perhaps harshly, describe as “policy failure” the reality is we can only play the cards that No 10 and the Treasury deal us. The reality is that policy is actually determined by officials and ministers far removed from the delivery coalface. And for all the talk of devolving power away from Whitehall, the reality is that this hasn’t happened in any meaningful way. Keir Starmer has said that he would address this should

Labour win the next general election, but I’m not holding my breath. Promises made in opposition so often turn to dust when the harsh reality of government kicks in - about 10 minutes after a new prime minister has walked into Downing Street. The more I reflect on these issues, the more I am convinced that our centralised system of government isn’t really working. The example of HS2 is a classic case in point. Here’s a major infrastructure project that, halfway through its construction, gets half of its plan cancelled with pretty little thought as to the consequences. Forget for a second whether you agree or disagree with HS2. The proposals to replace HS2 Phase 2b - motivated almost entirely to sweeten the political pill - were half baked, done in a rush, without proper consultation with the key infrastructure bodies such as Network Rail and so on. What does it say about the style of government in this country that a project that was given the go-ahead in 2009 by the then Labour secretary of state for transport, Lord Adonis, effectively gets scrapped 14 years later? And it is effectively scrapped even if HS2 Phase 1 goes ahead - because what on earth is the point of a high speed railway that takes you from Old Oak Common to Birmingham Curzon Street but nowhere else? Don’t get me wrong. I was never a fan of HS2 as regular readers will know. But if ever you want an example of bad government, HS2 is it. It was approved on a political whim because politicians - of both main parties - were embarrassed that while Europe was building high speed lines at pace, the UK wasn’t. But the UK, dare I say it, is rather smaller than Europe, something that politicians seemed happy to ignore. And the fact that the rationale for HS2 changed time and time again is, to my mind, proof positive that ministers were increasingly struggling to justify the original proposition. Our system of government in the UK is, to my mind, open to question. The pointless Covid inquiry is highlighting that in spades. Am I hopeful of a real reform of our system of government? No, I’m not. It’s not in the interest of any prime minister or any chancellor to give up power to others, either within Whitehall or regionally, and I can’t see where the real drive for reform will come from. On that note, compliments of the season to you! 15 December 2023 | 25

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All change: TfL reveals new senior managers

Transport for London has announced the appointment of Claire Mann as chief operating officer and Glynn Barton as incoming director of buses

Transport for London has announced the appointment of South Western Railway (SWR) managing director Claire Mann as chief operating officer. Mann will lead the planning and delivery of services on the Tube, Elizabeth Line, London Overground and Docklands Light Railway as well the bus and tram networks, cable car and Santander Cycle Hire. She will also have responsibility for the management of TfL roads and road infrastructure, policing and security of the transport network and TfL’s regulation of the taxi and private hire industry. Mann, who has more than two decades of experience in the transport sector and has held a number of senior leadership roles in the rail industry, returns to TfL after three years at SWR - one of the UK’s largest train operating companies. At SWR, she led a business with an annual turnover of £770m, comprised of 5,500 colleagues and running more than 1,500 train services a day from London’s busiest railway station, Waterloo. Mann adapted the business to a post-pandemic environment and steered SWR to becoming the first train operator to launch a roadmap to Net Zero by 2040. She also oversaw the introduction of a £1bn fleet of new trains, which are being rolled out across the SWR suburban network, including the construction of a state-of-theart train care facility, and led the 26 | 15 December 2023 PT303p26-27.indd 26

Claire Mann

Glynn Barton

£26m modernisation of the Island Line on the Isle of Wight. At TfL, Mann served as director of bus operations between 2017 and 2021, where she was responsible for the day-to-day delivery of the capital’s 9,200 -strong bus fleet - Europe’s largest. Her previous roles include director for DLR, operations and safety director at Arriva Trains Wales, general manager east at the former First Great Western and customer service director at London Overground. Mann is also a non-executive director on the Railway Safety Standards Board, a fellow of the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport (UK) and a board governor of the Chartered Institution of Railway Operators.

he will retain this role until Mann joins TfL at the end of March 2024. Following that he will move to the director of buses position, leading the development, planning and delivery of bus services across the capital. TfL’s current director of buses, Louise Cheeseman, retired this week. Barton was previously TfL’s director of network management and resilience, responsible for ensuring the ongoing control and resilience of the network. This included providing strategic and operational direction for the entire TfL network. Over 21 years at TfL Barton has used his transport planning and management background across a range of important operational roles including the 2012 London Olympics and the implementation of high quality cycling infrastructure across London. In 2022 he played a pivotal role in TfL’s transport plan to support events to mark the Platinum Jubilee and the passing of Queen Elizabeth II.

New director of buses Meanwhile, TfL has also announced the appointment of Glynn Barton as director of buses. He has latterly acted as chief operating officer in an interim capacity since October 2022 and

APPOINTMENTS CHILTERN RAILWAYS Chiltern Railways has announced three new senior management appointments. Tony Baxter, the former regional director for Yorkshire and Humberside at Northern Trains is joining the train operator as operations director. He will spearhead Chiltern’s timetable planning, performance, operational delivery, and station management, drawing on his 15-year career in the rail industry. Andy Camp, Chiltern’s new permanent commercial and customer strategy director, brings a decade of rail industry experience, including roles at West Midlands Trains and Greater Anglia. He will take a lead on modernising Chiltern’s station portfolio and improving the customer experience. Tim Sayer, the new engineering and safety director at Chiltern will lead on efforts to modernise Chiltern’s trains by making the case for new, low or zero-emission trains. Sayer previously worked at the train operator between 2006 and 2009 and in his new role he will champion Chiltern’s Right Route 2030 vision for a decarbonised train fleet. FIRST TRAVEL SOLUTIONS First Travel Solutions has announced the appointment of Darren Chadwick to its senior leadership team. Chadwick (pictured) joins the business as the client account director and will ensure service levels are met and exceeded for FTS’s clients across the sector. He has previous experience in the supply chain sector as well as within the rail industry.

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13/12/2023 16:23

DIVERSIONS

Tony Blackburn’s chart-topping trip!

week’s grand opening of the new Brent Cross West railway station in north London. Brent Cross West is the first main line station to open in the capital for over a decade, connecting

passengers from central London to Brent Cross in as little as 12 minutes, with up to eight Thameslink services running each way. For locals, it really is just a hop, skip, and a jump, well, short train ride to the heart of the capital. The station project with its associated rail infrastructure has been led by Barnet Council. It is one of the first rail projects in England to be delivered entirely by a local authority. “As a Barnet resident I’m delighted and honoured to be involved in the opening of our fabulous new station which, as far as I’m concerned, is top of the charts!” said Blackburn.

in Toxteth, Liverpool have embarked on an epic journey to design a new station for the Merseyrail network. Over the past six weeks, these mini-engineers have traded textbooks for hard hats, teaming up with Network Rail, Merseytravel, Liverpool City Region Combined Authority, and contractor Mott Macdonald to redefine what a 21st-century station should be. Armed with hi-vis jackets and an infectious enthusiasm, the kids hit the ground running with a site

visit to the location of the new Baltic station. Back in class, they channeled their inner architects, conjuring up radical new designs - think prayer rooms, accessible features, and green spaces alongside lifts and ticket offices. “The children came up with some brilliant ideas and designs,” said Sally Ralston, Merseyrail community involvement manager. “I’m sure the final version of the station will incorporate many of their ideas, and hopefully they will feel real pride at the contribution they have made.”

Radio DJ goes from jungle beats to Thameslink treats Seasoned radio maestro Tony Blackburn has traded the wild jungles for the rhythmic beats of, er, Thameslink. The broadcasting legend, who once claimed the title of ‘King of the Jungle’ on I’m a Celebrity... Get Me Out of Here! is now donning his rightful crown as the ‘King of Thameslink’. The famous radio DJ will be gracing rail travellers’ ears with a series of very special announcements to mark this

Creativity on track

TINY ARCHITECTS TAKE ON STATION In a burst of creativity that would make even the most seasoned architects blush, the imaginative minds of Windsor Community Primary School

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TransPennine Express has celebrated the 175th anniversary of Hull Paragon Interchange with the completion of a mural by local artist Andy Pea. Working in collaboration with students of Ron Dearing UTC and with ideas from the users of the Interchange and wider public, Andy has created a vibrant public art piece that serves as a visual chronicle of Hull’s history across four walls and the ceiling of the station entrance. “It’s a true masterpiece and we’re extremely proud to be adding to the rich history of Hull Paragon Interchange,” said TPE boss Chris Jackson.

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13/12/2023 16:59